After a long hiatus, I have returned! Yes, with the recent reveal of the cast of the anticipated “Survivor One World” (stupid name, but great twist), it’s time to relaunch “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! But you’re not here to hear about me or my blog, you’re here to hear about “Survivor”, so lets get started!
Before we begin, however, I feel I have to address something. It’s been highly publicized that this season will be another battle of the sexes, a la “Survivor The Amazon” and “Survivor Vanuatu”. As such, comparisons are inevitable, and did influence my thinking on the cast. Also, based upon the history of the twist, given that the two times before, there were some commonalities, I have made several assumptions about the game. Some of these are particular to a single person, and will be addressed in their bio, but there are two overarching ones that influence my thinking. My first assumption is that the tribes will subdivide based upon age, as this is what happened both times before during battles of the sexes. My second assumption is that there will be a tribal switch at some point, as again, history says that will happen. Naturally, “Survivor” changes things up, and these assumptions may prove incorrect, in which case the bios will be in error. At this time, however, my best guess is that history will repeat itself, but again, bear in mind that these are subject to change.
Well, I’ve kept you long enough, on to the bios, starting with:
Nina Acosta (51, Retired LAPD Officer, Clovis, CA. Salani Tribe): Go figure we start off with a contestant whose placement is based upon my assumptions. Well, Nina’s a bit of a mixed bag for me. She seems in better physical shape than some of her female counterparts, which is a big plus in battle of the sexes seasons, and she’s an older mother, which I find usually works in one’s favor. However, she also seems to have something of an abrasive personality, and I expect she’ll annoy even her alliance-mates. It’s a stereotype Survivor loves to give us: the tough, no-nonsense female cop, the most famous example being Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”), who Nina is similar to. Given that the women’s tribe tends toward more older women, and either way they’ll need her strength, I doubt Nina will be an initial target. However, I wouldn’t look for her to last too long, as I suspect she’ll annoy herself off the island. I’d say she’ll go around the tribe switch, as at that point her physical prowess will strike fear into the men, and her personality will seal the deal.
Jay Byars (25, Model, Gaffney, S.C. Manono Tribe): If, looking at this guy’s bio and picture you think “Gee, he reminds me of Fabio (“Survivor Nicaragua”).” then congratulations, 10 million other people have already made the comparison. To be fair, he’s not exactly like Fabio, playing up his southern roots to a sort of laid back, good old boy image, and it’s a good strategy. However, it’s been used often enough that I don’t think it works that well any more. Again, I don’t think he’s an initial target, but I could see him getting the boot before the merge by more strategic players. Like Nina, I expect he’ll go sometime around the tribe swap.
Christina Cha (29, Career Consultant, West Hollywood, CA. Salani Tribe): My first positive review of this bunch. Right off the bat, I like Christina. She seems very sociable, likeable, and with a good head on her shoulders. Unlike Edna Ma of “Survivor South Pacific”, I think Christina understands how the game works, and what sort of things you have to do to win. Christina is, admittedly, on the younger side of the tribe, being 29, but seems very worldly, and I think will fit in more with the older group. Top that off with her intelligence, and I’d say to look around for her pretty deep in the game. I don’t think she’ll win, as I’m not sure she’s physically up for the game like some of these other people, but I’d say she’ll be around at least until the jury phase.
Monica Culpepper (41, Ex-NFL Player’s Wife, Tampa, FL. Salani Tribe): It’s rare in Survivor that the “hot chick in bikini” role is filled by anyone over age 27, so I give the producers credit for finding this lady. She pretty much fills the typical role, as I’ve said. She seems to skate by on her looks, and I don’t think she has a lot going on strategically. Looking at comments on the internet, I’ve seen people disagree with me on this, but when your occupation is “Ex-NFL Player’s Wife”, I don’t have a lot of confidence in your ability to think. Normally, women in this role flirt their way into the merge if they make it there at all, but given that this season’s tribes are divided by gender, coupled with her age, I’d say Monica can’t pull it off. Now, as she is 41, it could be argued that she’ll be an extra vote for the older crew, but much like how Christina is younger but acts older, Monica, I think, acts much younger than she really is. Top all this off with almost no physical ability, and I’d say she’ll be gone very early on, even before a tribe swap.
Colton Cumbie (21, College Student, Monroeville, Ala. Manono Tribe): Another early boot, I think. I give the guy lots of credit, he’s a true fan of the show and can probably think strategically very well, but I think he thinks he’s a lot more charming and subtle than he really is. For my money, when I first saw him, I could just feel the duplicity around him. This, were I in the game, would make me want him out as early as possible. Now he has managed to survive as an openly gay man in the deep south, so perhaps I’m underestimating him. Probst has said he’ll fill the villain role, which implies he’ll be around a while. Still I’d look for Colton to be out of this game pretty early.
Kat Edorsson (22, Timeshare Rep., Orlando, FL. Salani Tribe): Kat seems sort of your more typical type to fill the “hot chick in bikini role”, but I think she has a little more going on than that. She has a certain attitude about her that I enjoy. Still, I wouldn’t look for her to be around for too long. She seems likeable enough, but still fairly naïve, doesn’t bring much physically, and for my money, she’ll probably be an early boot from the older alliance.
Michael Jefferson (30, Banker, Seattle, WA. Manono Tribe): Apparantly Mike Chiesl (“Survivor Redemption Island”) has a clone in Seattle! Seriously, in personality and looks, these guys are identical, and as such, I think Michael will probably fare about the same as his Redemption Island counterpart. He’s definitely a huge physical asset, and is almost too likeable. This should keep him around until the merge, but then his chances plummet. From what I’ve seen of him, he seems fairly ignorant of the strategic game, one of those people who tries to play straight rather than lie and backstab. Couple that with the fact that physical threats are targets later on, and I’d say Michael is likely to make early jury phase, and then get voted off by more strategic players.
Leif Manson (27, Phlebotomist, San Diego, CA. Manono Tribe): I really hate to type this, because it’s going to come off as being really discriminatory and bigoted when it isn’t, but Leif, in my opinion, is going to be the first person voted off, and his being a little person is going to have a lot to do with it. I am no fan of discrimination, or voting people off based on problems they were born with, but the fact remains that there are going to be challenges where he will be a liability based upon his height. The men will doubtless recognize this and vote him off first. This is not to say that he will be a liability in every challenge, in some challenges he will compete just as well as everyone else, and in some challenges his height might even be an asset. Additionally, he seems to be fairly good strategically. He’s certainly a fan of the game, and so probably knows what needs to happen strategically. If he could keep his head down, and subtly manipulate the tribe to his advantage, he’d have a much better chance. His downfall, and the other part of why he’ll be the first one off, is that he CAN’T keep his head down. He seems to be a bigger than life personality, someone who has something to prove, not someone who’d simply hunker down and stay out of the way. Staying in the spotlight, particularly early in the game when people are looking for differences to vote you out over, is not a good idea, but I just don’t think Leif can avoid it. For another matter, I could easily see him being viewed like Kelly Bruno was on “Survivor Nicaragua” and voted off for fear of sympathy votes. Again, he might be able to overcome this if he had a week or so to integrate, but I have a feeling that the men will go to the first tribal council, as they do every time a battle of the sexes occurs. The men get cocky, and lose it on the balance beam. While I can’t speak for the cockiness of Manono, from the clips of the first challenge, I have seen that there IS a balance beam, so the dudes are probably going to vote first. I do like this guy: it’s very cool that he’s here, and I love it anytime fans are on the show, but I just think he’s going to be the first person voted off. I hope he proves me wrong, but it’s my opinion.
Chelsea Meissner (26, Medical Sales, Charleston, S.C. Salani Tribe): A rare combination of stereotypes, Chelsea is both this season’s southern belle and quiet medical girl. If she can take the best of both these people, I’d say she stands a good chance of winning. I don’t think she will, however. She seems to play up more her southern belle-ness, and normally this is a good strategy, but during a battle of the sexes it rarely works. The southern belle needs someone, usually a man, to help take them through the game, and an all women tribe is not the place to look for that. Coupled with the fact that Chelsea is on the younger side of things, I’d say she’s probably an early boot. If she can make the tribe swap, she’ll probably go near to the end, if not final tribal, but her chances of even making the switch are a longshot.
Kourtney Moon (29, Motorcycle Repair, Austin, TX. Salani Tribe): Kourtney will be the first person voted out of the women, and frankly, it’s a shame, as I think she’d make a really interesting contestant. The trouble is that Kourtney’s on the younger side of things, and seems pretty blind to the game. During her CBS interview, she was one of the ones who said they wanted to play the game honestly, a sure sign that such a person is doomed to fall to more serious players. I do like this girl, she seems to be different than the usual young girl you find on Survivor. She’s tough, works with her hands, and seems to have a different attitude than most young people. Sadly, this is part of why she’ll be the first of the women to leave. In the early days, people look for anything different to get rid of you, and Kourtney just exudes difference. It’s what I like about her, but it also makes her too big a target early on to last. Since she falls in with the younger crowd, coupled with her comparatively frail appearance, I suspect she’ll be gone VERY early, which is a shame, as I think she actually has a lot to offer. I may be wrong, if she can make it past the first few days, weasel her way into an alliance and prove herself, I’d say she stands a good chance of making the late merge at least, but that’s a pretty big if.
Jonas Otsuji (37, Sushi Chef, Lehi, UT. Manono Tribe): Man, I love this guy so much, but he is TOAST! He seems to be a great character, I love his occupation, heritage, and his quips and self-knowledge during his interview, but I just don’t see him lasting. He seems nice enough, and he does know his way around the game (he’s another fan), but looking at him, I’m not sure what he physically has to offer. Most likely, I think he’ll be seen as a physical liability in the early game and be cut off without much of a chance. Much as I enjoy his occupation, I doubt it will help him. Keith Famie (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) wanted to rely on his cooking skills, but found that they weren’t as valuable as he thought, and had to find another way to keep himself in the game. Jonas, to me, seems a little too passive, and unless he’s used as a swing vote, I’d say that he’s an early boot.
Bill Posley (28, Stand-Up Comedian, Venice, CA. Manono Tribe): Looking through the cast initially, I fell in love with this guy (platonically, not physically). Unlike a lot of the other guys this season who think that they’re really charming, this guy actually IS really charming. He has a smile that you just can’t resist. Such assets, naturally, are only good if you know how to use them, but I get the feeling Bill does. He’s another Survivor fan, albeit a relative latecomer (His first season was “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”), but to my mind, that makes less of a difference than your devotion to the show, and Bill does seem devoted. I don’t think he’ll play a very open, blatant game like some of the other people this season, but be a bit more subtle, flying below the radar until the merge. He’s certainly physical, so he won’t be a liability early on, but he isn’t so chiseled that he’s an obvious threat come the merge, at least compared to the other guys. It’s strange, for all my talk about how great he is, I should hate this guy for being the usual would-be young Californian actor that Survivor so often recruits. To be fair though, I don’t hate recruiting so long as it doesn’t dominate the season, and it can bring good people to the show. Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) was a recruit, and I like him a lot. So, fairly smart, very charming, good physical game, why don’t I think this guys will win? Simply, he’s too nice. For all his talk, I’m not sure he has the killer instinct to make a move, or even flip flop to save himself. I think he’s the sort of person, out there, who would go down with his alliance. Still, I’d look out for this guy late into the merge, and if he makes the end, I’d say he stands a good chance of winning.
Matt Quinlan (33, Attorney, San Francisco, CA. Manono Tribe): My male pick to win it all, and only the second contestant to sport a last name beginning with “Q” (the first being Brandon Quinton of “Survivor Africa”). Survivor-nerdiness out, let’s get to analyzing the guy. Well, he’s another one who talks himself very big, but for once it’s about his strategy and not his charm. For another, although I do get a certain sleazy vibe from him, it’s much more subdued than from the others and that could be a big advantage. Compared to some of the other knuckleheads on this season, it should be very easy for him to take them to the cleaners. I suspect he’ll establish himself as the leader of the tribe, while forming side alliances with the others to keep himself safe. This should vault him right into the finals, where he can use his lawyer skills to win over the jury. Only two things work against him, the first being that he is very obviously physically strong, and so could be a target post-merge. However, given his mental capacities, I’d say he stands a good chance of overcoming this. The other problem is his decision to hide his career from his tribe mates, which I understand, but don’t think he can pull off. It’s kind of a hard thing to hide, dude, just own up to it. Still, barring one of these pitfalls, I’d look for Matt in the finals.
Alicia Rosa (25, Special Ed. Teacher, Chicage, IL. Salani Tribe): Another mixed bag for the women. Alicia’s another one who I’d say is a younger person with the attitude of an older person, so she probably won’t be a target right off the bat. Her physical prowess will help with that as well. Some say her teaching skills will also help, but now I’m not so sure. I thought they’d help Christine of “Survivor South Pacific”, but they just landed her on Redemption Island. Also, looking at her personality it seems like she’d snap at little things, giving people incentive to vote her out. Still, she’s an easy vote, and I’d look for her to make the merge at least.
Troy Robertson (50, Swimsuit Photographer, Miami, FL. Manono Tribe): For the sake of my readers, I will avoid the obvious comparisons to “Coach” (“Survivor Tocantins”), and focus on analysis. Man, this guy is nuts! Fortunately for him, he’s nuts in a good way. The guy who calls himself “Troyzan” does seem fairly comfortable in the outdoors, and fairly fit given his age, which are both assets. However, he’s also very new-agey, putting him a little on the kooky side and separating him from the rest of the tribe. It also means that he’s probably not a strategic player, which puts him at risk. The plus side for him is that it makes people want to take him along to the finals, as he’d be an easy victory. Because of that, I’d give Troy good odds, probably lasting until about mid-merge, and possibly even making the finals as a scapegoat.
Greg Smith (64, Plastic Surgeon, Houston, TX. Manono Tribe): What is with all the Texans this season? Well, at least Greg is different. The oldest contestant out here, Greg seems surprisingly fit for his age, which is an asset for him. He’s another one who talks a big game, but I think once he gets out there, he’ll be very subdued. I could be wrong, and certainly he’s another fan of the show, but I just don’t think he’ll make that big of an impact. Maybe it’s the moustache, but I see him playing a fairly similar game to Rick (“Survivor South Pacific”) he probably won’t do much, just hop on an alliance and ride, but it means that he’ll make mid-merge at a minimum.
Kim Spradlin (29, Bridal Shop Owner, San Antonio, TX. Salani Tribe): My female pick to win it all, which is a little strange, as she seems like another eye candy type of person. In fact, looking at people’s comments on her interviews, that’s what most people say. I have to admit, I disagree. She seems to have a lot going on upstairs, and seems very mature for her age, putting her in with the older group. She’s dynamic and skilled enough to lead or at least influence an alliance, and appears to be very sensible and strategic. This deadly combination makes her a real threat for the final Tribal Council.
Sabrina Thompson (33, High School Teacher, Brooklyn, NY. Salani Tribe): Finally, we have Sabrina, who for my money is a very odd case. On paper, it seems like she would do very well, being old enough and sensible enough to make it into the older alliance, and not being a physical liability. I think, however, that her personality will be her undoing. However much she denies it, I think, especially being dehydrated and starving, that she’s likely to be very loud and abrasive, rubbing even her alliance mates the wrong way. As such, I think she’ll tick off someone to the point where it gets her voted off fairly early, certainly pre-merge. If she can keep her head down, she’ll probably go far, but again, like with Leif, I don’t think she can.
And that’s the cast of “Survivor One World”! What’s my overall view? Well, it will certainly be an entertaining season, as it seems to be full of characters more than strategists, which makes for entertaining, if not good gameplay.
While all seasons have a mix of types of players, to my eyes seasons are dominated by those who are characters, those who are strategists, those who are both, and those who are neither. Seasons dominated by those who are neither characters or strategists tend to be the most boring, usually put near the bottoms of the rankings. To my mind, “Survivor Fiji” is a prime example of this, and it is part of why Fiji is my least favorite season. True, Fiji had its characters/strategists in people like Yau-Man Chan, but these were few and far between, and the season was dominated by bland boring recruits. Give “Survivor Nicaragua” credit, I do remember a lot of the contestants from it, just for the wrong reasons. In contrast, seasons dominated by characters who are strategists tend to be the most well liked. “Survivor Pearl Islands” is a great example of this, as the people from it are remembered both for their gameplay and for their attitude, Sandra Diaz-Twine and Jonny Fairplay being the prime examples of this combination (while I enjoy Rupert Boneham, he’s really only a character.) You would think that seasons focusing solely on strategists would be well liked as well, but this often is not the case. The trouble is that really good strategists are actually likeable people (are you hearing this, Russell Hantz?), making them not as interesting to watch as those people who are strongly disliked. It brings about most excellent gameplay, but nobody remembers it. Take, for instance, “Survivor Vanuatu”, a season where almost everyone at the merge was a real strategic threat. We had great gameplay, especially from Ami Cusack and Chris Daugherty, but they’re not very memorable characters, and thus “Survivor Vanuatu” often gets the shaft. Finally, we have seasons like this one, which are dominated by characters. While not usually anything special strategically, these season are often well-liked for entertainment value. Any All-Star type season capitalizes on this idea, but of late, Survivor has been fond of casting more and more characters. Notably, in “Survivor Samoa”, the people cast were cast either to be characters (Shambo, Jaison, Dave Ball), or sheep to be voted out by one-note character Russell Hantz (everyone else). You’ll also note that this season is well-liked by the general Survivor fan (myself excluded).
So overall, this season looks like it will be very entertaining, but not very game changing. Not my cup of tea necessarily, but should be fun anyway. Thanks for reading this exceptionally long blog, and please join me Feb. 15 for the premier of “Survivor One World”!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs
idolspeculation 