Ok, I know I usually start these “What If” blogs off fairly coy. Talk a bit about how a given season was received, and whether we can make it better with one small change. But there’s not beating around the bush here; it’s just not going to happen with this season. In case you missed the title, we’re talking about “Island of the Idols”, arguably the most universally reviled season the show has ever produced. And the causes of that revilement (the actions of Dan Spilo, and production’s responses to said actions) are not something that falls into the realm of my (admittedly self-imposed) restrictions on what changes I will examine. All that said, there doesn’t mean there aren’t changes in the season worth talking about, and if you’ll permit me, we’ll take a stroll down this season to see what it is, and what it does.
Also, consider this fair warning that there will be SPOILERS ahead. It’s difficult to talk about changing how an event went down on a given season without talking about how it originally went down in our own timeline. Moreover, I also talk about how such a change impacts seasons to come, so spoilers for the (admittedly few) seasons post-season-39, and potentially even a few from before that. Now that you have been sufficiently warned, let us dig in.
THE IMPACT
Our change comes to us fairly late in the season, and concerns everyone’s favorite advantage-finder, “Detective” Dean Kowalski. In the penultimate episode of the season, Dean is sent to the titular “Island of the Idols”, where rather than an actual challenge or test in order to gain a powerful in-game item, Dean just has to get lucky in a coin-flip. Whoop-De-Doo. How could anyone possibly forget such an exciting contest, and random advantage in a season dedicated to giving out random advantages?
Shade-throwing aside, Dean won a choice of three advantages in our timeline, going with an idol nullifier, probably the smartest of the three he could have picked, and as such, I don’t see him realistically choosing any advantage but that one. Coin flips, however, fall perfectly under the purview of this blog, and so we can see how the outcome changes if Dean ISN’T so lucky in his coin flip.
Yes, in this new timeline, Dean’s coin flip goes awry. Instead of gaining an advantage, he loses his vote at the subsequent Tribal Council, the price for his gamble. Now, fortunately for Dean, this is not an IMMEDIATE doom for his game. In our timeline, Dean wins the subsequent immunity challenge, and as this coin flip and his performance in the challenge are unrelated, I don’t see any reason Dean doesn’t win said challenge in this new timeline. His vote, while part of the majority, was also not needed for the ouster of Elaine this episode, so things so far seem ok for Dean. Dan is still rightfully ejected at the end of the episode, and we move onto our finale, and the larger fallout from Dean’s failed gamble.
THE FALLOUT
This is where the real meat of this change comes into play. You see, Dean’s idol nullifier threw a wrench into the plan of Janet. While she is still on the outs in this timeline, Janet had a hidden immunity idol to help make her way into the final four, where she would have had an edge due to her fire-making skills, demonstrated throughout the season. She even played it correctly this episode! The only thing stopping it from working was, you guessed it, Dean’s idol nullifier.
Shock of all shocks, Janet is successful without an idol nullifier to block her path to the end. She negates four votes against her, and her preferred target, Lauren, goes home. At this point, all obstacles are out of Janet’s way. Even if she didn’t manage to win immunity at the final four, that would merely mean that Noura, who won in our timeline, does so. For Janet, it doesn’t even matter what happens now. Whether she gets taken to the end by Noura, or she beats someone in fire-making, she’s all but guaranteed to face a jury that frankly is in love with her, and probably couldn’t wait to hand her the prize money. If you were to ask me the most likely path here, I’d say Noura probably still takes Tommy to the end, and lets Dean and Janet battle it out for fire making. Apart from matching up with what we know happened in our timeline, Noura would want Janet out (as would most everyone still in the game), and would thus be sure to put her into fire making. She’d want the best chance of getting Janet out, and so, since Tommy did such a good job of selling himself as not good at fire, Dean goes in. Janet, as mentioned before, beats him, and so our final three is now Janet, Noura, and Tommy.
As mentioned before, Janet is pretty much guaranteed to win this jury. I don’t want to say she’d have a unanimous victory (I could see people like Lauren and Missy giving Tommy a vote for example), but I don’t see any scenario where Janet doesn’t win. She was perceived as a threat if she got to this point, was super-likable, and was about the only person who came out looking good from the Dan situation. Yeah, no way Janet is not winning against this jury.
THE LEGACY
For the first time in one of these blogs, there’s really not much of anything to talk about in terms of how this changes returnees and returnee seasons. We’re so late in the “Survivor” overall timeline (at least at the time of this writing) that the only returnee season would be “Winners at War”, filming immediately after this season wrapped. While Janet is a beloved winner in this timeline, and doubtless both the audience and the producers want her back (more so the former, since the latter probably want to forget this season exists overall), the timing just doesn’t work out. There’s probably some grumbling from people who don’t understand the shooting schedule as to why Janet wasn’t invited back for that season, but it’s not a huge controversy. If you wanted me to reach for some change that happens to a later season, I’d say MAYBE the show decides that, given how little impact/excitement came from Dean’s coin flip, they decide this is not a good method for advantages in future seasons. If so, Michele, for example, might have gone out earlier in “Winners at War” without her coin flip, and things like that. Really, though, given the show’s propensity to run a bad idea into the ground before admitting it was a bad idea and giving up on it, I’d be somewhat surprised if we even got this.
No, the big changes down the line are in how various aspects of the season are perceived. Obviously Janet is beloved in our timeline, and she’s even more beloved as a winner. Her hype only increases, and I would expect her to be a lock for any future returnee seasons after “Winners at War”, assuming they allow pre-“Survivor 41” contestants back on those. Conversely, without his glut of advantages to land him in the finals, I suspect Dean falls into obscurity, talked about only as a curiosity, and “What If” scenarios trying to come back to the timeline we know. Lauren gets slightly more love that she does in our timeline, due to her exit being seen as more “cheap” than in ours, and gets a lot of love as a great strategist taken out by advantages rather than bad play on her part. And, if we’re talking about perceptions around the show, I doubt the idol nullifier gets as much hate as it does for us now, since we’d only have Carl’s example on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, aka an example people actually LIKE. Thus, people start to wonder why it hasn’t really returned (unseen one Omar had on “Survivor 42” notwithstanding), not realizing the proverbial bullet they have dodged.
The big change, though, is Tommy. Of course he’s no longer the winner as he is in our timeline. Yet, oddly, I feel like we would have seen more of him in the season than we did in our timeline. This is, admittedly, speculation on my part, but I think a lot of the reason Tommy got such little content period was due the show oddly wanting to distance their winner from the season he won. They could tell pretty much everyone (save Janet and Kellee) would come off looking some degree of “bad”, and so tried to minimize this for their winner. The issue is that they did this by sucking everything entertaining away as well. Without his win, there’s not need to make Tommy look like a perfect angel, and thus, they’re free to show more of him, the good and the bad. “Teaching Time with Tommy” becomes a regular feature of the episodes, or at least as common as Rick Devans’ news updates on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and we probably get to hear more of his thoughts on the Dan situation, particularly more about how Dan factored into Tommy’s strategy. Still, even now he’s not one of the bigger characters on the season, though he might still come back on “The Challenge”, since placement/character on “Survivor” seems to have little to do with who gets on that particular show.
I said at the outset that we could not make this a good season with this change, and I stand by that. By the time we’re able to make this particular timeline change, the damage is already done. Janet’s win will not undo the ugliness of Dan’s actions, and how those actions were handled. Still, I can see Janet’s win being the “One Redeeming Quality” this season has. Much as strategy nerds like me love Tommy for winning without ever having individual immunity or an idol/advantage, the most exciting winner he was not. Because he was so hidden, we didn’t get to know him very well, and thus the audience at large did not connect with him. Janet, however, comes off well no matter what. Since we still see so much of her in this timeline, her win is seen as the one good aspect of the season. Think of it like Kim Spradlin’s victory on “Survivor One World”. The season as a whole is still garbage, but at least the end result was satisfying. The main difference, of course, is that “Survivor One World” is merely a poorly-produced season with a terrible overall cast, while “Survivor Island of the Idols” is actively painful and/or triggering for most of the audience, and thus the latter is much more reviled, and rightly so. Even with that, however, Janet rises above all as something most of the fanbase loves.
Well, perhaps a weird beginning, but it’s good to be back to these “What-If” blogs! They’re honestly some of my favorites to write, and I’d like to do more of them moving forward. That’s where your help comes in! While I’ve always got a few scenarios running around in my head, there’s room for more. As such, I want to hear from you what scenarios you’d like to see me cover on this blog! Leave your submissions in the comments of this blog, or on whatever website linked you to this blog. Credit will be given if your idea ends up being used. That said, do be aware that there are some guidelines for getting your preferred scenario considered. These are listed below:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”. As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect. However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on. You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet. For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.
I look forward to seeing your submissions, and giving you more blogs during the off-season. Take care out there!
-Matt