“Survivor” Top 10’s: Sit-Outs

Well, this blog was a long time coming.  We’re after episode 6 of “Survivor 43” at the time of this writing, and I hinted at this topic backing episode 2 of the same season!  Thankfully, Noelle also sat out the “Earn the Merge” challenge of episode 6, making this topical once again!

Yes, my beloved readers, it is time once again for another editor of “Top 5 and Bottom 5”, or more appropriately, “Top 10”!  As sometimes happens, we are covering a topic today that doesn’t lend itself well to a “Bottom 5”, so we’re just going to do a straight “Top 10” list instead.  That topic, as the title hopefully indicated, is sit-outs.  People not participating in the challenge at a certain point in time, and commenting on the action, or at a minimum reacting to it.  Whose reactions were the best?  The ones you can’t forget?  The images that get stuck in your mind.  

There’s actually very little business to get through in terms of who qualifies.  Anyone who didn’t play in an entire challenge, for whatever reason, qualifies for this list.  If you were sat out, if you were eliminated, if you dropped out, if you chose to eat food rather than compete, or if a challenge is going in rounds which you may not be a part of, you qualify.  The only true caveat here is that, given my limited experience with non-US versions of “Survivor”, I’m only counting people from that version of the show.  Nothing against the other versions, but I don’t have the time to watch them right now, and thus don’t know them at all well enough to put them on the list.  Other than that, the only thing to bear in mind is that, in the event that someone has played on multiple seasons, I’ll be listing their season as the one that had the sit-out moment (or moments) that made them memorable, not their original season.  All that out of the way, let’s dive right in, starting at the bottom and heading up.  

10. Dan Lembo (“Survivor Nicaragua”): Sometimes, all it takes is an image.  One singular shot, and someone gets catapulted into stardom.  Let’s face it, as soon as you saw Dan’s name, you knew what I was referring to.  Hell, you may have even expected this from the outset of the very list, before anyone was even named.  I am, of course, referring to the post-merge reward challenge for a screening of “Gulliver’s Travels”.  You know, the challenge where Na’Onka and Purple Kelly quit?  Arguably the thing that ruined the entire season?  Yes, that challenge.  Out of all that, one bright spot.  With an odd number of players at a team post-merge reward challenge, one person had to sit out, that ending up being Dan.  Nothing special about that, you might think.  Many team challenges post-merge do so.  Ah, but they decided to THEME this sit-out!  You see, rather than just having him sit on the Sandra Diaz-Twine sit-out bench, Dan got to sit on a chair.  A chair blown up to massive size, a la Brobdignag from the titular novel.  This would have made ANYONE look comedically small, but given that Dan was on the shorter end of things to begin with, the effect was only magnified, and therefore hilarious.  This is also arguably the sit-out moment most famous within the “Survivor” fan community, being something of a meme/running gag.  More notoriety than most on this list.  Why, then, do I leave it at number 10?  Well, for all that an image alone can work wonders, it IS just an image, and most of the ones above this will have something more.  Plus, while funny, this was a sit-out moment manufactured by the producers, rather than by the player himself, which lowers it a great deal in my eyes.  Still a funny image, though.  

9. Shane Powers (“Survivor Exile Island”): Like with Dan, as soon as I say the name, you all know what’s coming.  At the Final 8 of the titular season, we had ourselves an “Eat or Compete” twist.  Shane, like most of Casaya, decided to sit out and feast on burgers instead.  This, by and large, was fairly uneventful, and would probably have remained so were it not for one particular rule.  Eating could only occur while the challenge was in progress, and as soon as a winner was declared, it had to stop.  The exception was that you could finish anything in your mouth.  Shane abused this to no end, and thus, when the challenge was over, we see him with about half a burger hanging out of his mouth.  Again, an image so iconic, it’s something of a meme/running gag in the “Survivor” community.  Most of what I said about Dan’s moment applies to Shane as well, but I give Shane the edge in the ranking because apart from supplying the food, production had nothing to do with this moment.  This was uniquely Shane, and that gives it a leg up in the list.  

8. Eliza Orlins (“Survivor Vanuatu”): This moment probably requires some explanation, as it’s not as instantly memorable as our first two mentions on the list.  Our Final 9 reward challenge, the first one post-merge, was an elimination-style trivia contest.  Naturally our men, Chris, Sarge, and Chad, were the first ones out, being in the minority.  The beauty of said types of challenges, of course, is that it reveals the pecking order.  Thus, when the women had to turn on each other, Eliza was the first casualty.  In doing so, she makes a little comment along the lines “How about I come sit with you boys?” to those on the sit-out bench.  Eliza is, of course, known for her snark, and this is a great example of it.  Said in a kind of sing-song way, but with enough bitterness underneath to give it her needed edge.  Not as memorable as those that came before, but like I said, I tend to value the words of sit-outs rather than the images associated with them.  Plus, unlike the other two, this one serves a strategic purpose in its foreshadowing.  Down the line, of course, Eliza will “sit with the guys”, or at least Chris, and change the course of the game.  Man, I love these fun little moments.  

7. Coby Archa (“Survivor Palau): Speaking of little moments, sometimes all it takes is one word.  To say that Coby played messily once Ulong was dissolved and absorbed into Koror would be an understatement.  But it would also be unfair to say Coby didn’t have fun with every minute he had left.  When he dropped out of the first full-on individual immunity challenge of the season, he had some choice words for his old tribe, mocking their “unity”.  Yet, the one thing he says that is most memorable is just a single word: Koror, the tribe name, in a mocking tone.  Coby is, in my view, underrated for his snark, and while he has some more long-winded witticisms, his swan song is nice and brief, encapsulating how he feels in just one word.  That, to me, is very impressive, and worthy of a spot on the list.  

6. Cirie Fields (“Survivor Game Changers”): We move on from the unofficial section of words alone to the unofficial section of body language alone.  At our second immunity challenge, in the second half of the first episode of the season, Cirie was the sit-out.  Fairly hair-raising for her, since she wasn’t really connecting with her tribe, and was the likely boot in the event that they lost.  Then the race in the challenge tightened up, and you could just see Cirie realizing how deep she was in it.  This was pretty much her fate in the game hinging on something she had absolutely zero control over.  The sheer terror remains etched in my mind to this day.  It’s not as visible or over-the-top as other entries on this list, hence why I don’t rank it higher, but such a visceral reaction, one where you can practically read her thoughts, is definitely a stand-out one, worthy of a spot on the list overall.  

5. Noelle Lambert (“Survivor 43”): Of course the person who inspired the list was going to be getting a spot on it!  While many could argue that Noelle doesn’t have a singular “moment” as a sit-out like the others do, I think her track record overall is worthy.  Noelle is someone who wears her heart on her sleeve.  If her team is doing well, you see it in her emphatic cheerleading.  If they’re doing poorly, you see it in her frustration.  There’s a reason we cut to her reaction shots, sometimes even instead of more Probst narration.  While she may not have a singular moment, her reactions as a whole enhance the challenge experience, and is the mark of a great sit-out.  

4. Michaela Bradshaw (“Survivor Game Changers”): Michaela, being good at challenges, generally did not sit them out.  But hoo boy, you knew if she did!  I’m sure many of you, like me, are recalling a particular reward challenge from her return appearance, where, in her words, “They messed up” by not picking her.  Like Noelle, Michaela is another who wears her heart on her sleeve.  Unlike Noelle, in this case her heart had only one thing to say: That it was PISSED OFF!  Crossed arms, terse responses, not even hinting at being happy for the people playing.  That sort of honesty is why we love Michaela!  Why, she was so mad she didn’t even think to check under the bench she was sitting on for advantages!  And that, friends, is why she doesn’t end up higher on the list.  While her reaction was memorable, in the show’s narrative, it was overshadowed by her failing to look for this advantage, and Sarah subsequently getting it.  A poor choice on the show’s part, but one that diminishes the moment, however slightly.  That said, I can still clearly picture her reaction, and that gets a lot of mileage from me.  

3. Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Winners at War”): Say it with me now: “Yah, Fall!  Fall, Yah!”.  Like many others on this list, Tony is not subtle in anything he does, even if that’s just cheering from the sidelines.  In this case, he decided to blend it with his sometimes insane-sounding statements (talking llama, anyone?), and it makes for probably the singular most memorable sit-out moment of the past 20 seasons or so.  What can I say?  Love him or hate him, the man’s legendary in everything he does.  

2. Randy Bailey (“Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”): Randy’s time on his return season may have been short, but he certainly did his best to earn his Villain credentials in that time.  You’ve probably already said it a bunch of times purely in the time you’ve taken reading these two sentences, but allow me to reiterate the line that catapulted Randy this high on the list:  “Roll it over Rupert’s toe!”  In case you’ve forgotten (though how you could forget this season’s pre-merge is beyond me), this was the rare challenge were both tribes got to sit people out.  Rupert, having broken his toe at an earlier challenge, was rightly sat out by the Heroes.  However, when crates were rolled a bit too close to the sit-out benches, Randy couldn’t help but heckle a little bit.  In character and memorable, but barely loses out on the top spot for how mean-spirited it is.  Granted, this is Randy we’re talking about, but I find Randy is at his best when he’s just hating on humanity in general, rather than a specific individual.  There’s a fine difference between “All people suck” and “This particular person sucks”, and I prefer the former to the latter.  Can’t deny it’s worthy of a spot on this list, though.  

1. Sean Rector (“Survivor Marquesas”): Sean is a quote machine, and it is a crime that he has not yet returned to our television screens.  And this, my friends, is one of his greatest moments of snark.  Once again, like with the Eliza moment beforehand, we have an elimination challenge at the final 9 revealing the pecking order.  As Sean and Vecepia were the original two Maraamu left, they were naturally picks one and two to be eliminated.  Sean, however, noted that they were also the two black contestants on the season, and were eliminated first.  Thus, when Sean dropped, he threatened to call Johnny Cochran, and when Vecepia was eliminated, insisted on it.  Hilarious, but not mean-spirited, since it’s just pointing out a truth in a humorous way.  It’s also probably the most impactful sit-out moment, since this episode also saw the first totem-pole swing, when Neleh and Paschal realized they didn’t like being on the bottom of the “Rotu 4”.  While there were other factors involved, Sean’s comments highlighting this revealing of the pecking order were definitely a factor.  Humorous.  Impactful.  What more could you ask for from someone not even playing in most of the challenge?

Honorable Mention: Abi-Maria Gomes (“Survivor Philippines”): A list of top challenge Sit-Outs would not be complete without talking about someone memorable just for sitting out a lot period.  It was a tough debate for me between giving this spot to Abi-Maria or Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”).  Sandra is the Queen, after all, and the sit-out bench is even named after her.  In the end, though, I give the edge to Abi-Maria for being the one with more commentary as to the fact that they were sitting out.  Sandra just had it happen a lot, but Probst himself brought up Abi-Maria’s general lack of challenge participation.  This gives her an edge, and definitely makers her a notable sit-out.  However, despite her overall snark, Abi-Maria… Doesn’t actually do anything unusual on the sit-out bench.  Were it not for just how often it happened, it wouldn’t even be worth bringing up.  In the end, it can still only muster an honorable mention, but definitely a deserved one.  

Hope you’ve enjoyed the little extra blog for the week, and see you at the next episode recap!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 6: Wasted Potential

Look, not every title is a clever pun or reference.  Sometimes one’s disappointment in how something could have gone, versus how it went, just overwhelms everything.  Now luckily for us, this is gotten out of the way fairly quickly, but we won’t be getting into it right off the bat.  Yes, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

We have a themed pair of mistakes from the last blog, and that theme is “Presenting the evidence with no thesis.”  Twice last episode I described what happened without giving my overall thoughts on it.  First and foremost, I talked about how Jeanine got the beads for her idol, but how was her performance in getting the beads overall?  Probably the weakest of the three we’ve seen this season, but that’s really more a testament to how well Karla and especially Cody did at acquiring the beads than any knock against Jeanine.  Jeanine was forced by circumstance into letting most people know what she was doing rather than give some cover story.  Gabler was the only exception, and she seemed to manipulate Gabler well, but it does mean more people know about her idol than either Vesi (where only Jesse knows who’s left) or Coco (where no one knows but the holder), which, by default, makes her performance the worst.  

I also failed to give my thoughts on the episode overall, which were effectively “Meh, it was ok”.  Hot take, I know.  Might explain why I forgot to say anything.  The strategy was adequate and logical, the misdirection was fine, and there were one or two entertaining moments.  This puts it on the “good” side of the spectrum, but nothing exciting or worth writing home about.  Though honestly, that could sum up modern “Survivor” pretty well.  

Moving on to the current episode, given that Ryan was CLEARLY blindsided last episode, surely we get his reaction.  It either has great comedic/dramatic potential, or showcases how great of a player he is.  Given his track record, I’m guessing it was the former.  To be fair, Ryan will declare himself a “free agent” shortly, so at least we know for certain where his head’s at, but still, I feel like we missed good comedy and/or drama potential.  

I’m GUESSING as to Ryan’s reaction because we cut straight to the next morning, and an admittedly fun reaction from James getting something called “Tree Mail”.  What that is, I can’t say.  Never seen anything like that on the show before.  Seems fun, though.  They should do it more often.    

This particular Tree Mail tells Coco to gather their things in 10 minutes, and prepare to head to their “New Home”.  Pretty much everyone talks about how excited they are to make the merge, but I’m not buying it.  The wording doesn’t say “Merge”, it says “New Home”.  As “Survivor Thailand” demonstrated, these fine distinctions matter.  Yet, not a single person on Coco questions anything, and just jumps to the “Merge” conclusion.  Even Karla, ever the skeptic, only says that merges in the modern era are “Crazy”.  Still, at least she questions SOMETHING!  Vesi goes full-throttle into the merge conclusion.  

And this, right here, is the big disappointment of the episode.  With the emphasis on the wording, and how certain everyone was, I thought FOR SURE we were set up for a fakeout.  Didn’t even have to be the “Survivor Thailand” full on fake merge.  Could have been a full-tribe summit before a swap or something.  Or hell, maybe a new, ORIGINAL twist.  But no, everyone is right, it’s just the merge.  How predictable.  The potential is wasted, and everything returns to being boring.  

Oh well.  Returning to what we actually get, everyone is getting together at Dumbass Tribe camp, which makes sense.  They have a plurality, after all, and won the biggest rewards.  Thus, they probably have the best camp, and if there is to be a merge, makes sense for it to happen there.  Everyone is happy and hunky-dory, the stuff you expect from a merge, but of course, strategy is nigh.  Noelle talks about Cody taking everyone’s beads on Vesi to make a hat.  In the presence of Elie.  Who knows all about the bead thing.  She confers with Jeanine and then Owen.  The latter, in a fairly funny moment, talks about wanting chyrons explaining who has what, noting that his would say he doesn’t have anything.  That said, as Owen lays out who has what, chyrons depicting this appear on the screen, both spelling things out for the audience, and making for a very funny editing moment.  

This is the highlight of the episode.  I’m not kidding.  

Owen may be the one spelling out who has what, but it’s Elie who dictates how this affects the strategy of the season.  Dumbass and Vesi may have been helping each other out to weaken Coco, but now with them weakened, will it hold to the merge?  Yes, Elie tells us.  While Coco may have been weakened, they’re also the only unknown in terms of advantages.  Everyone has correctly deduced that SOMEONE on Coco probably has their idol (though how hilarious would it be if no one had found the Beware Advantage?), but no one knows who.  Good for Karla overall, but bad for making people want to work with you.  After all, this is an unknown, and as I’ve said before, unknowns in the game of “Survivor” are a problem.  Hence, Elie reaffirms the Dumbass/Vesi commitment, which I can’t fault the reasoning for.  

If not some exciting, new twist, what was the vague language in Tree Mail about?  Why, the new way to “Earn the Merge”, of course!  And by “New Way”, I of course mean “The same thing, but without the stupid hourglass twist.”  Don’t get me wrong, the lack of hourglass twist is a MAJOR improvement, but still, doesn’t feel like it shook things up nearly enough.  Now, if Applebee’s had sponsored the feast, maybe we’d be on to something…  

You know the drill by now: Divided into two even teams, winner gets buffs (in a lovely teal color this season) and merge feast, along with immunity, losers get none.  Same deal as before.  Only difference is that the one person not randomly sent to either team needs something to do.  In this case, it’s the tried and true “Tie your fate to one team” twist.  Our sit-out picks a team before the challenge.  They win, they share the reward and immunity  They lose, they share in that as well.  Fair, but again, boring.  Really, the best thing to come out of this is that Noelle is the one who draws the “No Team” rock, meaning we get her fantastic reactions on the sit-out bench once again.  

Our teams themselves are decently even, with blue consisting of Ryan, Karla, Gabler, Jeanine, Dwight, and Jesse, while red gets Cody, Sami, Elie, Owen, James, and Cassidy.  More even than we’ve seen the past few times this twist has come up, though I still give the edge to red.  Blue only got one particular challenge beast (Ryan) to red’s two (Sami and Cody), while also getting arguably the two biggest challenge sinks in Karla and Gabler.  Still, it’s even enough that I can’t fault Noelle for picking to back blue.  Not unreasonable that they could win, and her closest ally Dwight is there.  Best to make your bed with your alliance where possible.  

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed the challenge yet.  That’s because it’s kind of forgettable.  Decently-sized obstacle course, but few elements stand out.  The best part was dragging crates (to form the six crate stair fist seen on “Survivor Tocantins”) on a sled, since that required the tribes to criss-cross, which is always a fun visual.  The honeycomb word puzzle was also nice, though again, the phrases are getting too esoteric.  Yes, I know the show talked about “Earning” things, but the specific phrase used here, “Earning your spot at every stage.”, is a bit much.  

Lackluster as the challenge may be, Noelle’s reactions continue not to disappoint.  Blue has an early lead, but then falters, leading to that delicious over-the-top Noelle frustration.  I grow terrified when it seems like Karla has broken her hand when a crate slams into it, as I don’t want my favorite of the season evacuated.  Thankfully we see it bandaged later without medical being called, so I assume it’s all right.  Things are ultimately all right for Noelle as well.  Despite the teams seeming relatively even in terms of puzzle strength, red chokes, and despite getting up later than them, blue solves it first, winning “The merge”, I suppose.  I’m mostly just happy Karla is immune, and still in the game.  

We start with the down-and-out, aka those without immunity.  Naturally, it doesn’t take long before scrambling starts, with James asking Cody to go for a one-on-one chat.  An oddly blatant move for an otherwise subtle player (in terms of gameplay, not in terms of reactions, as we’ll soon see), and one that seems costly to him.  Elie uses this as a pretext to put the target on James.  She was probably going to do so anyway, since she wants someone from Coco gone, but James is honestly a good target.  Smart, and getting rid of him breaks up the tightest pairing there, the one that could keep the tribe together.  Karla being double-immune leaves her off the table, so James it is  Not knowing where the idol is, Elie wants to split the votes.  Normally I would agree with this, but the numbers just don’t pan out for Elie’s side.  The problem is that both Jeanine and Jesse have lost their votes, meaning your total is now up 7-4 over the old Coco, assuming you stay united.  Split in half, that’s 4-3.  Make the wrong call, and Coco’s 4 is enough.  My only guess as to why Elie wouldn’t think of this issue is if Jesse had kept the fact that he lost his vote hidden, but given that he told all of Vesi, I have to assume it leaked out.  Usually a sensible call for Elie, but again, numbers just don’t bear it out here.  

Over at the feast, everyone is once again having a jolly good time.  As Karla the realist reminds us, though, it can’t last.  Oddly it isn’t she who bursts everyone’s bubble with strategy talk, but Ryan, who proposes that these seven form an alliance.  They could be top seven after all.  With all immune, they’d be guaranteed numbers.  A blatantly obvious move, and Ryan pitches it poorly.  That said, I have to dock everyone else points for not even pretending to go along with it.  Look, I know it wasn’t a good pitch, and few, if any, of you have reason to go along with it, but that’s the song and dance of “Survivor”.  You at least PRETEND to entertain all options.  

Ryan’s poor pitch seems to shut everyone down from any strategy talk.  Everyone, that is, except Gabler.  Gabler makes it clear, in no uncertain terms, that Elie is against him, and he is ready and willing to vote her out.  Jeanine, understandably, is a bit upset at this blatant and sloppy play, not least because it targets her closest ally.  That said, I do think Jeanine underestimates Gabler a bit.  Is he God’s gift to strategy?  No, but he’s not a moron, either.  The running theme when it comes to the women of Dumbass Tribe and Gabler is that Gabler is constantly underestimated.  Doubtless, Gabler had some justification besides declaring his strategy in the open for saying what he said.  Perhaps he’s working to create a false lead for Coco, to prevent an idol play?  Maybe he’s telling the truth about his wants, but meaning it more to plan a seed for the future.  He could be…

CRASH!

ME: Yeah, it’s about that time of the season, isn’t it?

GABLER: I threw Elie’s name out there because I want Elie gone!

ME: Kind of obvious, my dude.

GABLER: Just wanted to make that clear.

ME: Funny confessional and all, but did you really have to come all the way across the country just to tell me what I could see on my tv screen?

GABLER: I live in Idaho.  We take any excuse to leave that we can.  

ME: Valid.  Here’s another excuse to stay out longer: My wall needs repairing.  There’s a Gabler-sized hole in it.  

GABLER: On it!

If Gabler’s confessional was not enough, word soon gets back to Elie about what Gabler did.  With so few people vulnerable, Elie understandably freaks out.  Gabler makes the perfectly fair point that Elie betrayed him first, which Elie denies.  Gabler doesn’t buy it, so when Elie tries to get him to unite behind the plan to oust James, Gabler is not on board.  So much for you being able to read Gabler and manipulate him, huh, Elie?  

Elie talks about wanting a new target, but doesn’t really have anyone available who’s not on her tribe  She may not need to provide one, however, as both Owen and Sami are pissed at Gabler, and rightfully so.  Gabler screwing up Elie’s plan is one thing, but now even the people willing to work with him are tired of him.  If Gabler weren’t immune, he’d be a logical choice.  As it stands, Elie’s paranoia is getting to Sami and Owen, and they suggest perhaps just letting Gabler have his way and voting her out.  Even Jesse starts to have second thoughts about working with Elie.  Jeanine, however, is determined to get things back on track.  She plays the diplomat, since Gabler is less likely to stonewall her, and tries to swing the vote back to James.  Sami and Owen seem placated, but the plan has two problems.  The first problem is Gabler, who tells us in no uncertain terms that he’s insisting Elie go that night.  The other problem is Ryan, who happened to overhear some of Gabler and Jeanine’s conversation.  Free agent he may be, but he doesn’t seem so burned by his tribe that he won’t do them a solid.  He warns James that he’s being targeted, but also lets them know Gabler intends to vote Elie.  Since Coco can do basic math, they realize that voting Elie means they’re all but guaranteed to stay, unless everyone else unites against a single target.  

A smart move for Coco, but what about the rest?  All else being equal, I’m inclined to say they should stick with the James vote.  If Gabler were vulnerable, I could understand breaking the supermajority.  He’s proven to be a sloppy enough player to be a liability.  Elie, while paranoid, has not, and as I say, the James/Karla duo need to be broken up, if you want to truly make sure Coco is a non-factor post-merge.  Honestly, the best argument for voting out Elie is the one I made earlier about numbers.  They don’t have the numbers to safely split the vote, particularly now with Coco aware of where Gabler’s vote is going, so they would have to unite against James.  With no knowledge of where the idol could be, this is a risky proposition, and so I can see the logic of voting out Elie there.  That said, doing so would kill pretty much any chance of the supermajority surviving, so on the whole, if you can get out James, I say do it.  

Our only remaining bit of misdirection is Jeanine offering to play her idol for Elie.  Despite what I just said about James being the better boot, this would be a TERRIBLE move on Jeanine’s part.  Apart from losing immunity, purely for an ally who is doing a decent amount of harm to your coalition by her (justified) paranoia, Jeanine has no real need of Elie anymore.  The alliances are in place, and Jeanine has shown herself to be a good enough diplomat to keep everything together.  Plus, with no Elie to contradict her, Jeanine gets to take credit for masterminding any moves from the alliance at the end.  Using her idol on Elie even to get out James, would be a needless waste.  

You want to know a big problem with 13-person Tribal Councils?  Everything gets lost in the shuffle, particularly when everyone’s being super-secretive like tonight!  Nothing particularly bad happens, but Tribal just goes by in a haze of double-speak, with nothing particularly standing out.  

No, the vote is the main event, yet we only see one vote being written down.  It’s James, naturally voting for Elie.  I’m good with misdirection and all, but Gabler LITERALLY TOLD US the name he would be writing down, even AFTER Jeanine supposedly brought him back into the fold.  I’d bet his voting confessional was great as well, so it’s a shame we didn’t get to hear it  

Everyone holds fast to their idols and advantages, which I can’t fault them for.  In arguably the most memorable part of Tribal Council, James gives over-the-top pained reactions to every vote against him, and I kind of love it.  It even seems believable, as he’s the first name to double-up after Elie, Owen, and Cassidy each receive one vote.  Those two votes are all he gets, and everyone dogpiles on Elie.  As I’ve said, not the smartest move, but I can see where they were coming from.  Gabler being immune left them with few options overall.  Elie leaving is a mixed bag for me.  She was a big character, and I always want to support a fellow psychology peep.  That said, her boot was definitely earned, and I feel like we got what we needed from her story at this point.  Better her than James, but I do wish someone like Cody or Sami, whose archetype I just don’t care for that much, had been targeted instead.  

But let’s talk about those votes for a second.  The votes for James, Elie and Owen, need no explanation.  Elie was the majority, so that’s been discussed.  But what of our random stray votes.  Well, our Cassidy vote comes courtesy of Noelle, which when thought about, kind of makes sense.  When splitting the vote was the plan, the idea was “Dumbass on James, Vesi on Cassidy”.  Thus, Noelle could be seen holding to that.  Alternatively, Noelle wanted a Coco member to go, but thought she could use James because of their journey back in Episode 3, and so preferred Cassidy as an option.  Either way, seems like Noelle’s not that interested in working with Coco overall.  The stray Owen vote, however, still defies explanation.  It comes from Karla, who to me has little to no reason to vote for this guy.  My best guess is that she was concerned about Elie having an idol or a successful Shot-In-The-Dark, and didn’t realize Owen would vote James as well.  Still, even that seems a stretch, especially since there’s no guarantee James wouldn’t get piled on on the re-vote.  As such, I remain overall stumped by this move.  

While this episode just barely edges out of “Bad” territory, mostly due to some funny reaction shots, editing gags, and avoiding the Hourglass Twist like the plague, it’s still pretty weak.  13 people is too much for only an hour merge, the misdirection was weak, and there’s overall just not anything exciting to talk about.  When it seemed like they were building up to something better, only to give us the same-old, same-old, well, that just leaves a bad taste in one’s mouth.  

Why must every psychologist on this show other than Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”) place poorly?

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 5: Fatherly Love

The “Mom” archetype.  One of the most talked about in “Survivor” canon.  Yet its gender-flipped counterpart, the “Dad” archetype, very rarely gets play.  Oh sure, we’ve had some “Dads” on “Survivor”.  While not technically that archetype, I’d say Bob Crowley of “Survivor Gabon” gave off big “Dad” energy.  The moment in which I most like Tyson was him playing with his daughter on “Winners at War”.  And Jeremy Collins made his kids a central part of his strategy on “Survivor Cambodia”.  But apart from Jeremy, and Rocksroy on “Survivor 42”, no one has really made the “Dad” archetype the center of their strategy.  Tonight we perhaps see why, as our most prominent Dads of the season either screw up their own games because of their kids, or betray their kids, leading to their games getting screwed up.  

Getting back from Tribal, one would expect there to be drama, and there is.  Surprisingly, though, it is not from Geo seeming to be left out of the vote.  Indeed, Geo informs us that he was fully aware Lindsay was going, but threw a vote on Cassidy since he was the person Lindsay was voting for him.  It’s not explicitly said, but presumably Geo is worried about a Shot in the Dark coming back on him.  Of course, the obvious counter-argument is that if Lindsay played her Shot in the Dark, she wouldn’t have a vote, but on the other hand, Geo could be worried about his name on a re-vote.  Point being, I don’t fault his logic.  

That said, his logic is based on the faulty premise that he is in with the majority, with Cassidy on the outs.  Despite Cassidy voting with you last episode.  Cassidy and Karla take time to mock Geo privately for this delusion, but I’m sure that won’t mean anything for the episode down the road.  

Over at Dumbass Tribe, Jeanine and Elie are up to their old tricks again.  They’ve searched what they believe to be every significant nook and cranny on the island.  Except, you know, the giant, significant tree.  After giving a description of how the tree should be edited, which the editors comply with a la Russell Swan on “Survivor Philippines” (arguably another contender for the central “Dad” archetype in their game), Jeanine gets to searching.  In fairness to all the people on the Dumbass Tribe, I would say their Beware Advantage is the most well-hidden.  Vesi had it easiest, with the advantage just lying out on a low branch, not even attempting to blend in.  Coco’s was also technically in the open, but on a higher branch, and closer to the color of the tree in question.  Dumbass’ was stuck down in a nook between two branches, and blended quite well.  And, to add insult to injury, was covered in ants, which Jeanine had to bat off before running to Elie to open the advantage.  

Jeanine barely hesitates in opening the advantage, given what she believes the tribe to be.  Gabler is perceived as such an annoyance that Jeanine does not believe her vote will be necessary to oust him.  Of course there is the little matter of his idol, but she and Elie are still drinking the “Gabler doesn’t think it works.” Kool-Aid.  Finding out about the bead issue (and we actually get a close up of most of the beads this time, and they are the most cool-looking of the bag beads, save for Owen’s which is kind of “blah”), Jeanine and Elie decide they don’t want Owen to know what’s up.  True, he’s nominally on their side, but there’s something about him they just don’t trust.  

Cue Owen immediately walking up on the pair.  The Irony Gods must be rolling on the floor.  

No, Jeanine and Elie are in luck.  Owen did not actually HEAR them say they don’t trust him, though they are forced to reveal the existence of Jeanine’s Beware Advantage, and how it works.  Owen DOES contemplate simply refusing to give up his bead, but given that he’s playing both sides, he gives it up in the end.  To his benefit, I would say.  Making a stink about the bead think would tip one’s hand too much if you know why, and thus probably more trouble than it’s worth.  An idol is powerful, true, but only if used right, and there’s no guarantee Jeanine will be able to do that.  

Elie informs Sami of the situation.  He has to give up his bead in order to maintain his bluff against the women, but is clearly happy that Jeanine may be without a vote.  This seems all the more likely when Gabler, the one person who hasn’t been told about the rules for the Beware Advantage, buys Jeanine’s bracelet cover story, but is reluctant to part with that specific bead, saying he is saving it for his daughter.  Ouch.  Right in the family feels.  How’s Jeanine going to overcome this one?  

Pretty easily, apparently.  With the mere offer of trading back the beads Gabler had previously bequeathed her, Gabler gives up the bead she most wants.  If I’m Gabler’s daughter, I’m pissed right now.  Me personally?  I’m more pissed at the editors.  There must have been some great social manipulation on the part of Jeanine if Gabler really had his heart set on that particular bead, unless the edit played it up.  Thus, either the edit hyperbolized things to a degree even I can’t take, or we missed out on seeing some great gameplay from Jeanine.  Whichever is the truth, I’m pissed.  

When I first saw Gabler refuse and give the daughter excuse, I thought perhaps Sami had got to Gabler beforehand, warned him of the danger, and told him not to give up his bead under any circumstances.  Then Gabler gave it away, and that theory went out the window.  This is confirmed when Sami fills Gabler in on what just happened.  To his credit, Gabler is a fantastic sport about the whole thing, congratulating Jeanine in confessional, even though he admits this makes the game harder for him.  

Off to our challenge, which if the lack of Caps Lock was any indicator, is nothing to write home about.  Pretty standard obstacle course with little we haven’t seen before.  I’ll give credit that it’s bringing back some elements that have been long-absent, though.  Particularly the “Carry a bucket of water to dump in another bucket over a tricky balance course” element.  That’s been around pretty much since the show began, but it’s been gone for a while, so I’m cool with it coming back here.  

I’ll also give credit that this obstacle course actually made me like the “Ski-Ball” ending.  Yes, really.  I’ve hated it since its inception on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, but this one I don’t hate.  Why?  Simple: They took away the notches at the end.  Apart from just making this look less like a carnival game, this also means the shots take more skill, since you need to finesse your throws just so to make sure they don’t go too far and roll off the back.  This also means there’s the devastating potential to undo your progress by knocking the balls off the platform in the throwing process.  Not that this could happen to anyone, could it?  

Sure enough, it does.  As our tribes race for immunity and tarps of varying sizes, depending on first or second place finishing (lest you think a challenge a quarter of the way through the episode meant a double Tribal), things stay fairly even.  Dumbass is slightly behind, understandable given they’ve had the most strategy talk this episode, but no one’s out of it, and everyone ends up on the (difficult) ball-throwing portion.  Vesi unsurprisingly does the best.  I say “unsurprising” because they got zero strategic content pre-challenge, so it was all but a given they would be immune.  Better that they get first place outright, even if I do hate that it pokes a hole in my “No addition by subtraction.” theory.  Coco seems to have a slight lead throughout, but fumbles when Ryan tries to use the two balls he’s landed as a stop, thereby upsetting all of them, and allowing Sami to have his victory.  

With no double-Tribal in the offing this episode, we see the REAL reason the challenge is so early: ADVANTAGES!  Yes, it’s time once again for Vesi to select one person from each tribe to go on a quest.  They evidently decide to go via Phoneme Alliteration, as Geo, Jeanine, and Jesse are all selected to go.  Can’t fault any of the choices from the outside, really.  

Now, you might think Ryan just made a bad judgment call in the challenge, particularly as we saw both Cassidy and Geo suggest Ryan bounce off the two balls up top, leading to the loss.  But no!  Ryan wants you to know that he INTENDED to lose that challenge!  Oh, he didn’t come in planning to throw it, but he wants Cassidy out, and so he’s ok with losing.  And I buy this line of “I meant to do that” was much as I did when Phillip Sheppard said the same thing on “Survivor Caramoan”.  That is to say, NOT AT ALL!  Hell, I’d be more inclined to believe PHILLIP in this case, since Phillip at least did so after the tribe swap, and thus might have legit reason to want someone out.  Throwing a challenge to get out CASSIDY?  Look, she’s a good strategist to watch out for, but she’s not challenge-throw worthy.  Or is this the edit telling us that Cassidy is the next Erika Casupanan (“Survivor 41”)?  Either way, not buying this.  I think Ryan just goofed.  

Even if he were inclined to blame his tribemates, Ryan would not do so.  Why?  Because he’s just that nice!  So nice is Ryan that when discussing what lie to tell Cassidy with Karla and James, Ryan volunteers himself, basically saying they should act pissed at him for losing the challenge.  Credit where credit is due: It takes a lot of guts to volunteer yourself as what you believe to be the decoy.  It can certainly be the smart move.  Note that volunteering someone else as the decoy was a contributing factor to Andrew Savage’s loss on “Survivor Cambodia”.  So, if Ryan truly believes the vote to be Cassidy, I can’t fault him too much for the overall move.  Some of the details, however, go a bit far.  In particular Ryan asking people not to strategize with him AT ALL seems an unnecessary risk, but at least it makes sense.  Worse is Ryan telling Cassidy to vote him if she has to.  Look, there’s being a good sport, and then there’s being an UNBELIEVABLY good sport!  Ryan is hamming it up a bit much here and, like Geo earlier, is roundly mocked for it.  

As to our adventurers, they’re dropped off at a platform to row a boat in rough seas to a sand spit.  Look, I know we said we wanted variety in the journeys, and this is better than nothing, but we meant more the MECHANISM for getting an advantage on the journeys, or even whether there’s any advantage at all!  Changing up the method of getting there is nice, but is the least of our concerns.  

One constant is being told to get to know one another.  Which they would probably do, if Geo didn’t dominate the conversation.  Geo hams it up that he was on the outs at the last vote, and swears he’s going to risk for whatever is there.  Basically trying to do what Noelle did when she went on the journey a few episodes ago.  Geo, however, believes himself to be lying, which raises suspicion on both Jeanine’s and Jesse’s parts.  Well, ok, Jesse says he thinks Geo is telling the truth, but this may not stop him from going for an advantage.  I think the key Geo is missing is offering some alliance down the road in return, as Noelle did.  Gives people some incentive besides pity to not risk their vote.  

The only person I could fault for risking here is Jeanine.  After all that paranoia about losing your vote, and ALREADY having an idol, you’re going to risk again?  Jesse, however, believes he’s good with his group, and so has little reason not to risk for himself, and Geo believes the same.  In reality, Geo is on the outs, but as there are no numbers for him to get back in power, he needs some sort of leverage, so I can’t fault his decision here.  I will fault Jesse’s logic of “what would my kids want?”, but admittedly this is results-oriented talk.  

Sure enough, all agree to risk, and head back to their camps.  The one true flaw in this episode is that unlike the last time we had multiple people risk, we see each tribe do theirs one at a time, meaning the third tribe shown contains the individual whose risk paid off.  We start on Vesi.  One flaw of keeping the mechanism the same on each journey is it means that a lie can be easily seen through, making a lie harder.  Jesse is completely honest with his tribe, opens it in front of them, and finds out that he predictably lost his vote.  Jeanine on Dumbass is next, though she sneaks past her sleeping tribe to open it in private… Before coming back and pretending to open it in front of them, revealing her lost vote in the process.  What was the point of sneaking away then?  Sami calls this a bad move for Jeanine in confessional, and we move on.  

As expected, Geo got the advantage, another “Knowledge is Power”.  This lends credence to the idea that the specific advantage is based on how many people risk for it, since this is inarguably the most powerful of the three (some would say broken, but I disagree), but of course we don’t have definitive proof.  Geo is the only one who initially lies to his group, but after he and Karla go for a walk, he comes clean to her.  Ok, show, is Geo’s number one Karla or Ryan?  You’ve gone back and forth on this a number of times, and we kind of need a definitive answer!  It’s important for us to understand the strategy dynamics!  

Unfortunately for Geo, Karla is not truly on his side, no matter what he thinks.  She spills the beans to Cassidy and James.  We don’t actually see her SAY what Geo got, but we can presume she did.  Still, Cassidy is not please.  She, after all, is the TRUE decoy vote of the night, and wants to switch the vote to Ryan just to be safe.  While I would point out that Geo can’t actually DO anything to save himself with that advantage, unless he steals Karla’s idol that no one but her knows about, it’s hard to blame Cassidy for being paranoid as the decoy.  Blame they do, however, as Karla and James talk about Cassidy going “Full Lindsay” in insisting on getting her way and being paranoid.  As such, they talk about bringing the vote back on to her.  

Put bluntly, this would be a dumb move.  Random moments aside, Geo and Ryan seem to be a tight two, and if you want to maintain your power on this tribe, they need to be broken up tonight.  As to which of the two should go, it’s more of a toss-up.  Ryan is better in challenges, and should you all make the merge, is a more visible threat, and thus a better shield.  Geo, meanwhile, seems to have more of a relationship with the majority, and does have an advantage that could be used to the tribe’s benefit.  On the whole, though, I say voting out Geo is the smarter move of the two.  You don’t know when the merge is coming, so keeping Ryan around works out just in case the merge is far away.  And even if it’s close, hey, he’s a shield!  The big factor for me, though, is how Geo will use his advantage.  As Karla points out, this is a powerful advantage, and one that could be used against her to blow up her game.  Now, it could be argued that she has some influence over Geo, and has hidden her idol well.  I would counter that, unless Cassidy goes tonight, Geo will realize he’s not in the majority, and will thus be less inclined to what others have to say about where and when his advantage is used.  After tonight, I don’t see Geo using his advantage for anyone but Geo.  As well he shouldn’t, of course, but it means there’s basically no reason to keep him around anymore.  

There are two main topics at our much more somber Tribal tonight, with momentum being the first.  Cassidy irritates the statistician in me by saying she believes in momentum.  Look, if you know anything about statistics, “Streaks” are a myth.  A statistical probability that people read far too much into, and believe in some mystical force that isn’t there.  The only thing that MAY have an effect is a belief that you are or aren’t in a streak affecting your performance, which is all psychology, all in your head.  Just keep a positive mindset and it won’t fall out that way, apart from random chance.  

This is basically the attitude that Ryan adopts, and is basically the topic for the rest of Tribal.  Ryan is a nice guy.  Just so nice.  Trying to play as fair as possible, and at peace with wherever he goes out.  Everyone just talks about how nice Ryan is; how much they can’t believe it.  Some even speculate that they don’t believe it.  It speaks to Ryan’s charm that I actually kind of believe the guy.  Anyone going from Coco would be a loss at this point, as I like them all, but Ryan would be a particularly hard one.  We may not have much of his backstory since the first episode, but the dude is just so inherently likeable.  

For once, the tribe plays optimally, and Geo goes home in a blindside.  In keeping with the other theme this episode, dude is a good sport about it in his final exit interview.  Despite it being the smart move, I am sorry to see Geo go.  It may have been earned strategically, but the dude seemed like a nice guy, and was certainly putting all his effort in the game, which is always nice to see.  He may have earned his exit, but he will be missed.  On the plus side, we finally have a man voted off this season after four straight women.  Something different!  Yay!

Remember all that speculation that the merge was a while away?  Yeah, no, it’s next episode.  With 13 people still left.  Look, I know the double-elimination first episode (whether by immunity or medevac) was getting predictable, but I meant change up WHEN said double-elimination happens, not remove it entirely!  13 people left is just too many.  Then again, I think 11 people left is too many, so what do I know?

Dumbass tribe having a plurality at the merge?  Did not see that coming.  Will be interesting to see how that plays out next week.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 4: But Wait, There’s More!

Well howdy, readers!  Have I got a deal for you!  Have you ever found yourself without the time you want to overanalyze “Survivor”?  Well, this is the blog for you.  We combine astute strategic analysis with internet message board snark to combine all your online experiences into one, thus saving you time!  And as a bonus, we’ll throw in callbacks to past seasons ABSOLUTELY FREE!  All we ask in return is one specific bead off of each of your bags.  Oh, don’t ask what it’s for.  No need for a keen mind such as yourself to worry about it.  Besides, native tribes sold the island of Manhattan for mere beads, and look how well it turned out for them!  Trust me, at these prices, you’re practically robbing me!

Despite a unified Tribal Council, there is a somber tone when we get back to Vesi.  Cody in particular is upset, saying that losing Nneka is like a close girlfriend breaking up with him.  This would be kind of a forced metaphor that I would normally hate, but Cody takes it to such ridiculous extremes that it circles back around to being hilarious.  See for Cody, this is like his girlfriend breaking up with him at the same time the pizza delivery guy does not come through with the pizza.  Also, he just found out his childhood dog finally died, and some guy had a fender-bender with his car.  Didn’t even leave his insurance information.  Oh, and that bitcoin he invested in?  Worthless now.  All while it is, of course, raining.  Ok, so I made some of those up, but you have to admit they sounded plausible.  Hence why this blog was almost titled “Cody Assenmacher and the Terrible, Horrible, No-Good, Very Bad Day”.  

Curse the rest of the episode going well for Cody.  I liked that title.  

Fun fact about the tropics: It actually gets cold!  Counter-intuitive, I know, but you’d be amazed what a lack of sunlight will do, particularly if your home has an insulation factor of 0, like pretty much every shelter on this show has.  Gabler, however, has a plan.  Palm frond blankets!  That will make everything better!  Admittedly not the dumbest plan I’ve ever heard on this show.  

The flaw in the plan, a la Reem on “Survivor Edge of Extinction” is that Gabler doesn’t ask if anyone actually WANTS such a blanket, and wakes up most of the shelter in the process.  Naturally, people just woken up tend to be grumpy, and given that they admit that Gabler’s efforts were not particularly effective at keeping them warm.  Gabler apologizes with good grace, but he and Elie are still at heads, getting into a heated debate over how to best tend their fire. I hardly know enough about building a fire to determine whether one of them is right, though I do know that Gabler’s point about the direction of the wind making it harder for the fire to catch is sound, and a factor not really discussed on the show.  Doesn’t make Elie’s idea less valid, though.  It doesn’t really go far enough to be called an “argument” really, and even in confessional, Gabler is diplomatic about the whole thing.  He says the two are just strong personalities who like to be in charge, and so naturally there’s going to be some clash.  Still, Gabler reminds us that he hasn’t forgotten or forgiven Elie going through his bag for his idol rules, doubtless setting up something for some payoff later.  No way we would be disappointed in that.  

I will, however, be disappointed in the fact that we have a reward challenge.  Now, this may seem weird for me, the guy who will usually exclaims “Challenge time!” in all caps, and who seems to focus on the challenges more than other blogs.  And yes, I enjoy having more challenges to having fewer challenges in general.  However, with three tribes and only a regular length episode, it really feels like it takes up too much of our time.  Jumping ahead a bit, that talk from Gabler we got at the top of the episode?  Yeah, that’s the only bit of pre-immunity challenge “strategy” we get.  There will be stuff worth discussing, and I wouldn’t take anything OUT of this episode, but it’s clear that with three tribes, there is not enough time in a regular-length episode for a reward challenge.  It just eats up too much time.  

As to this specific challenge, it’s largely a hybrid of two pervious challenges.  We have knocking blocks off a horizontal beam (from several seasons, but mostly resembling a challenge from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”) and tossing sandbags onto swinging circular platforms (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”).  For the most part, the most notable thing at first seemed to be that I initially mistook the swinging platforms at the end for actual swings, which made me think for a second the contestants were actually just going to have some good playground fun.  Probst playfully “taking attendance” as Coco comes in may have contributed to this as well.  

But oh, there’s a part of this challenge that’s nothing short of sadistic!  Those blocks?  Yeah, the tribe doesn’t stack them.  Instead, whoever knocked them down has to cross a long stretch of sand.  Without touching the sand.  Using only two blocks.  And they cannot move their blocks with their hands.  Oh, and did I mention there are OBSTACLES on this course you have to get your blocks over?  Yeah, I feel sorry for the poor saps completing this portion.  

Fittingly for such a torturous challenge, the reward itself is quite a powerful one.  There’s the “ten fish” reward which seems pretty standard, but the winning tribe also gets the right to loot one item from either of the other two tribes.  this has been seen a number of times, but is most prominent on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, where it was a mainstay of all tribal reward challenges.  Certainly makes for good drama, and I’m all for its return, even sporadically!

There’s a good bit of tension to this challenge as well!  Vesi has the early lead, and do ultimately win, but they take a long time on the swings so that even Coco, who were decently far behind, get to that portion.  Vesi wins, though, but do not get their flint back.  After Coco and Dumbass are sent away to await with fear the possibility of being looted, Vesi gets to negotiating.  Probst tells them that as always, they can trade their reward for any previous one… Wait, since when has this been a thing?  Ok, I know it’s happened a few times, most notably during the aforementioned “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, but this was NOT established as an ongoing rule!  It’s fine if it is , but that’s the sort of thing that needs to be established at the top of the season, show!  It’s relevant here because Noelle, evidently not being a fan of sashimi, does not want fish without the ability to cook it.  I’m on the side of Cody here that sashimi is delicious, but their ultimate trade for fruit and tools makes sense.  

On to looting discussion.  Cody is quickly selected to be the tribe ambassador, due to his charm and, on his end, salesman skills.  More of a debate is which tribe to loot, and what to take once they do.  We don’t get a clear answer to the first question before Cody leaves, and to be fair there’s not really a wrong answer.  Either way, you’re getting something good while weakening your opponents.  That said, I would say that looting Dumbass is probably the slightly smarter choice.  One reason is that Baka has gotten the bigger reward in the last two episodes, and so has more/better stuff to be looted.  This is a factor brought up by Vesi, but when discussing weakening a tribe, it’s only brought up as a reason to loot Coco.  Yet, I feel it would be a stronger reason to loot Dumbass.  Partly this is due to most immunity challenges relying on “not being last”, and Dumbass is currently looking like the weaker of your two options.  You can make it easier to not come in last if you further weaken the already slightly-weakened tribe.  Further, there’s evidence to suggest that Coco being so ahead in terms of members is a good thing to be preserved.  Consider that the majority of the time, a tribe that never goes to Tribal pre-merge tends to self-destruct, to at least some degree, immediately after the merge.  Tandang, Kama, Luvu, you get the idea.  There’s no reason to suggest Coco would be any different.  Let the tensions build, so by the time of the merge you can exploit them.  

A fiercer debate is what item to take.  Most of Vesi is in favor of taking some of the fishing gear for their long-term survival.  But, of course, Cody will get to make the final decision here, as the ambassador.  And Cody is more in favor of taking the tribe machete, so prevent them from making fire, severely weakening them.  Both logical reasons, but I’m more on the not-Cody side on this one.  As the rest of the tribe points out, they have saws in the tool kit to strike the flint.  Not as effective, admittedly, but still possible.  Not brought up, but also a concern here, is the possibility of a tribe swap.  Yes, weakening a tribe so severely can be an advantage, but if you’re swapped to that tribe?  Congratulations, you just screwed yourself!  Now, some might say that tribe swaps aren’t a thing in the “New Era”, and thus should not be planned for, now that our players have seen how “Survivor 41” and “Survivor 42” played out.  I say if that was the case, they should also assume the “Beware Advantage” requires them to say some stupid phrase.  Don’t assume things on “Survivor”.  The only constant is change.  

Cody warns in confessional of a possible “executive decision” as he heads off to the as-yet unknown tribe.  Turns out it’s Coco, and while I do stand by it being the sub-optimal decision, it’s hardly a bad one either.  Cody at first seems to be making his executive call, asking for the machete.  Lindsay initially takes point for the tribe as the spokesperson, outright saying the tribe is unified in not wanting the machete taken.  James contributes to the offer of food to supplement some other item.  After some hemming and hawing, Cody agrees to take the fishing gear and food, which is probably ultimately the best decision.  

What makes it even smarter, though, is that Cody lets us in on his sales tactics being put to use!  Yes, it seems Cody DIDN’T want the machete, but DID want to milk the tribe for as much as it was worth.  He intentionally gave them a highball offer to get them to give up more when taking the item he actually wanted anyway.  The fact that he tells us about this only confirms its intentionality.  While Cody still isn’t my cup of tea personally, I can’t deny this was a BRILLIANT move, and really shows off the depth he has compared to others of his archetype.  Great negotiating.  Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) would be proud.  

Is there any downside to Cody’s maneuvering here?  Well, only one minor one, and it’s really not something he has control over.  His manipulation here was generally quite subtle, hence why his confessional explanation was necessary.  Karla, however, sees through it, so at least one person moving forward has Cody’s number, which could be trouble for him down the line.  

CHALLENGE TIME!  See, told you I went in for the all-caps.  And this challenge certainly merits it, all due to the puzzle.  The obstacles are pretty bog-standard, especially as the “find the ring of keys” aspect poses no problem to any single tribe.  But that puzzle, man!  Four tangrams you use to form a shape.  Difficult, but not that special.  Spencer solved a similar puzzle with little effort on “Survivor Cambodia”.  But oh, dear reader, this IS a special puzzle!  You make a square.  Then you move the pieces to an upper platform, then use them to make a triangle.  Yes, this puzzle has MULTIPLE solutions you can make with the same pieces.  That’s cleverness, borderline genius!  Frankly, I’d love to see more puzzles that need to be manipulated this way.  

Note to “Survivor David vs. Goliath”: Puzzles with multiple solutions are only genius if they’re INTENTIONAL!  I’m still salty about Carl not winning that one immunity where he spelled a word, but not the word the show was looking for.  

Time problems rear their ugly head here once again.  With only Dumbass getting true strategy talk (or at least talk not centered around the looting), there’s no doubt they lose this challenge.  And that probably might have happened, were Noelle not a spanner in the works.  You see, Vesi finishes the challenge first, oddly lending credence to the “addition by subtraction” philosophy.  Then, Noelle gives advice to Dumbass on how to solve the puzzle for a triangle, leading Dumbass to an immunity win.  Now, this is hardly the first time we’ve seen one tribe helping another in this type of situation.  Aurora attempted to do it on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and Michaela did it successfully on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  The notable difference here is that those seasons had tribe swaps, thus explaining why one tribe might favor another winning.  Evidently Vesi is fully on the “weaken Coco” train.  Fair enough strategy, but they’re quite obvious about it, and James in particular is not pleased with this development.  So much for that cross-tribal alliance you formed, huh Noelle?

Bad as the editing and foreshadowing are, at least we now get a deeper look into the Coco inter-tribal dynamics, something that has admittedly been relatively lacking this season.  As one would expect, we first check in with the women’s alliance.  Geo is all for targeting Cassidy, but Kayla, one of our swing votes, tells us this is not an option.  Couple that with Geo being somewhat cocky and bossy (we see him micro-manage Cassidy in cutting up some food), and we determine that he’s target number one.  An obvious move, but a fair one nonetheless.  

We’re going to need better misdirection than that, however!  Enter Lindsay.  With such a relatively unified vote, there’s little need to go off and talk one-on-one.  Not in the world of Lindsay, though.  She’s paranoid people are talking without her.  Admittedly a fair fear, but given that she seems to have been involved about the Geo decision, she can’t be THAT out of the loop.  Though, again in fairness, I can see her having thoughts about being targeted due to being visibly the oldest.  She never mentions this, instead saying she thinks people might see her as a threat, but even if we don’t get a confessional for it, I wouldn’t be surprised if this thought was in her somewhere.  

In a good old case of self-fulfilling prophecy, her paranoia rubs Karla and James, our swing votes, the VERY wrong way.  Privately, they go off and talk about how Lindsay’s paranoia is a threat to stability, and thus, by thinking she may be a target, Lindsay has made herself a target.  And the pair are at least taking the idea somewhat seriously, going so far as to talk about the possibility with Ryan, the guy who seems to be LEAST involved in strategy discussions at this point!  Serious as it may be, I would say booting Geo is the slightly smarter decision overall.  Granted, there’s not really a WRONG decision for our swing votes, as is the case with a lot of early tribe votes.  They’ll still be the power with the potential to swing the person on the outs, plus our swing votes each have a relationship with one possible target who might stay (James with Lindsay, Karla with Geo), so they’ve got options either way.  The only reason I say a Geo boot is smarter is because, from what we’ve seen, Geo and Ryan are closer than Lindsay and Cassidy.  Both pairs are bonded, but Geo and Ryan seem like each other’s ride-or-die, whereas Lindsay and Cassidy have the “women’s alliance”, which Karla at least as an “in” on if need be.  Plus, while Lindsay’s paranoia IS a concern, it might just be pre-first-tribal jitters.  The sort of thing that will go away with a successful alliance vote.  If you go back and she’s STILL this paranoid, it’s a guaranteed liability.  But you could at least give her the chance.  

Frankly, Coco’s reaction to the Tribal Council set is more interesting than most of Tribal Council itself.  There’s a good back and forth between Lindsay and Ryan about who was talking to whom and what it says, and some setup for a Geo boot with him talking about him just wanting to not go, but mostly standard stuff.  But as Probst says, this is one of the more over-the-top reactions to Tribal Council ever.  And contrary to the fear one might expect, they’re reacting with wonder at the dramatic architecture.  As a fellow fan, this is understandable, and a fun deviation from the norm.  

Our vote is a 4-1-1 split, with Geo voting for Cassidy, and Lindsay voting for Geo.  The remaining four votes go on Lindsay, another surprise for me, but one adequately foreshadowed.  While I maintain this was not the optimal decision, I can’t say it was bad overall.  From a viewer’s perspective, this is the best outcome.  Nothing against Lindsay, she seems perfectly nice, but she was not a particularly dynamic character this season.  I’m not sure she even got much of a backstory.  Geo is not the greatest character either, but we know a lot more about him, and thus he’s more interesting to watch.  Still, I do feel back for Lindsay, particularly as she seems quite broken up in her final words.  Sadly, that’s just the way the game goes sometimes.  

Perhaps the most baffling question for me is why Geo was left out of the vote?  Granted, he seems to be a bit of a motormouth, so perhaps they were worried about him spilling the plan?  But personally, I’d be more worried about what a pissed-off Geo might do.  I mean, the man HAS to realize he’s on the outs, right?  It may not have been exactly the vote he wanted, but no one, even right before tribal, pulled him aside to say “Hey, just FYI, it’s Lindsay”?  Not even Ryan, his closest ally?  It just strikes me as weird, and I could see this coming back to bite the majority if they don’t attend Tribal Council again until the merge.  

Honestly, the parts to this episode were not bad.  Light on strategy, light on character, but what discussions we had were good, and it was nice to get a look into the dominant strategy at Coco.  Again, I think the problem is they’re trying to cram too much into too short a time frame.  I love challenges, but if you’re going to have two of them in an episode on a three-tribe season, you need more runtime.  Everything felt rushed, and while not bad, it just can’t hold a candle to the first few episodes.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 3: A Leg Up

Yeah, yeah, I know it’s a cheap joke, and maybe not in the best of tastes.  But Noelle is kind of a badass in a number of ways this episode, and if the joke is good enough for Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”), then it’s good enough for this blog.  

Reminiscing about Vanuatu aside, we actually can’t start off the blog for this episode just yet.  You see, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This is an incredibly minor one in the grand scheme of things, but since I did make a point to joke about it, I feel compelled to correct myself.  The special area between Jesse and his wife, now shared with Dwight as well, is the “Pineapple ZONE” not the “Pineapple ROOM”.  Again, minor distinction, but I feel the need to mention it nonetheless.  I still say my Spongebob joke holds water, though.  

Trouble abounds in the Pineapple Zone, however, as after Jesse and Cody celebrate everything at the last Tribal Council going their way, Jesse admits that he may have burned the bridge with Dwight by not clueing him in ahead of time as to the outcome of Tribal Council.  No, really, you think?

Sure enough, we see that Dwight is not pleased with Jesse, in talking to Noelle.  Jesse, while still wanting to work with Dwight, admits that the “Divorce Papers” are ready to be signed on his end, if need be.  Dwight, however, is not ready for a full separation yet, though perhaps a trial one.  He admits being burned by Jesse, but expresses hope that they can still work together in the future.  

Now, I’m all for not being too butthurt when you’re on the losing side of Tribal Council, but this may be taking it a step too far.  Don’t blow up at Jesse, certainly, but don’t just put all your hopes on him.  Bond with Noelle to become another tight twosome, and try and convince Cody to go for Jesse, since he’s now proven untrustworthy.  Better yet, if he’ll go for it, try and have Cody let Nneka go for challenge performance,  Then you’ve got the tightest twosome left on the tribe, and you’re set.  About the only overture we see of this for now is Dwight and Noelle becoming tight with each other.  A good start, but they say they hope Jesse goes with them, a strategy that relies too much on Jesse for my liking.  

Over at Dumbass, we see that Gabler is still not doing too well, sleeping on the beach apart from the rest of the tribe.  Per the tribe’s report, this is due to him not handling things well mentally right now.  This, in the eyes of Elie, makes him a liability, and thus she wants him gone next.  However, there is still the wrinkle of the idol, as there’s little doubt that Gabler won’t play it at the next Tribal Council.  He doesn’t seem like the type to hold it for a keepsake or a bluff down the road.  

But what if he didn’t play it?  Elie and Jeanine suggest that, since THEY were confused by the wording on Gabler’s clue before re-reading it, perhaps Gabler could be confused into believing his idol no longer worked.  Thus, in the presence of Sami, they suggest talking to Gabler as though his idol is no longer good, presumably banking on him not, you know, looking at the instructions he has free access to to double-check.  Kind of a flimsy plan, but hey, stranger ones have happened.  Look how many times Shan on “Survivor 41” was able to get her tribe to act against their own self-interest to her benefit?  Spin a tale like that, and there’s a chance it could work.  

Good as Elie is, though, she does not quite have Shan’s charisma, nor is Dumbass tribe as gullible as most of Ua that season, despite my joke name for them.  When Sami asks Gabler about his idol, Gabler correctly notes that it’s good for one more Tribal Council.  Sami then clues Gabler in on the women’s plan, informing him of the search of his bag in the process.  Gabler is infuriated that they went through his bag.  Not sure exactly why, apart from the two supposedly being in an alliance.  That part may be justified, but indignity at the bag search itself, not so much.  This has been staple “Survivor” play since “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and only become more common with the addition of idols and advantages.  Feels to me like most of the stigma went out the window a long time ago.  But hey, Gabler’s the victim here.  He’s entitled to his feelings.  And as Gabler says, he’s not an idiot, and so when Elie enacts her plan, Gabler plays along like he really does think his idol is no good anymore, to Elie’s satisfaction.  All while the men plot their demise.  Why must every psychologist on this show who isn’t Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”) suck?

Things are much more pleasant over at Coco, where James’ birthday is in show.  We even hear a bit of the tribe singing him the “Happy Birthday” song, something I’m amazed the show’s copyright-averse lawyers let through.  Cassidy talks about how things are one big happy tribe, but how that feeling is likely to go at some point.  James even muses about going to the rocks to look for an idol at some point, though Lindsay notes the stigma should anyone leave camp.  And so, they all sit around looking at each other.  Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) would be proud.  

Of course, things have to change eventually, and Karla spies her chance before long.  Lindsay, Cassidy, and Ryan are all out fishing, while James it taking a nap.  No mention of what Geo is up to, but perhaps since he thinks Karla’s on his side, he doesn’t care.  Either way, Karla goes off idol-hunting, wisely checking all the significant-looking trees.  With what seems very little effort (though admittedly this advantage was more well-hidden than the one on Vesi.  This one was less brightly-colored, as well as higher up the tree.), Karla finds a Beware Advantage, and debates with herself whether to risk it or not.  She describes herself as having played the “slow and steady” game so far, but acknowledges that she needs to take a risk at some point.  She’s just not sure if this is that point and, in a first for the show, puts the Beware Advantage back without opening it.  

I’m of two minds about this decision.  On the one hand, Karla has the LEAST to risk by potentially losing her vote on this tribe.  As the swing vote, it is unlikely that she would be targeted at the first few Tribal Councils this season, barring being a contributing factor to some challenge loss.  True, this does limit her power to determine the outcome, but an idol down the line can make up for that.  Plus, that assumes you’re GOING to Tribal Council, something that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon for Coco yet.  Not a safe assumption, but then you could also argue that it’s going to be a while before even the next immunity challenge, so Karla has the time (and the social capital) to figure things out.  As such, not going for the advantage baffles me from a strategic perspective.  

That said, however, Karla is out there and we’re not.  Perhaps there’s something we’ve not seen that makes Karla feel more at-risk in the tribe, and admittedly Karla has heard no silly phrases at a challenge yet, something she has to assume is still the case, all else being equal.  WE know about the bead thing from last episode, but KARLA doesn’t, and thus must assume she has to work with the other tribes to activate her idol and get her vote back, which she can’t guarantee at this time.  More than this, however, I applaud Karla for making the SMART move for her, not the FLASHY one.  If we assume that Karla has good reason to feel she’s at risk should the tribe lose, then going for the flash is an unnecessary risk.  Look how it nearly torpedoed Cody’s game last episode.  Karla does what she feels is best for her, and it’s hard for me to fault her for that.  Still, it would be a shame if she went back on that because it’s what she thought the audience would want.  

Back from commercial, we check in at Vesi, where the FEELS abound.  Nneka is talking about causes that are near and dear to her heart.  Specifically, she talks about a Nigerian refugee charity she works with.  It’s sweet stuff, and then for mood whiplash, you learn it was BURNED TO THE GROUND by some of the locals.  Jerks.  Anyway, Nneka says that’s what she wants to use her prize money for.  Short stuff, but sweet, and emphasized well by the flashback pictures.  

Can’t go too long without game talk, however, as Karla has decided to go BACK on what she said, and will instead do what she would tell someone on the tv to do.  Look, I’m all for changing your mind if you realize you did a dumb, and maybe that’s what Karla did but from what we’re shown, it’s her thinking like a viewer, rather than a player.  Fun for us, but from a strategy perspective, I can’t condone it.  First, Karla has a conversation with James about whether he would go for a Beware Advantage or not.  James kind of waffles, which Karla takes as a “go ahead” sign.  Why James isn’t immediately suspicious of this line of questioning, I don’t know, but the dude does appear to be half-asleep.  I’ll cut him the benefit of a doubt.  So, Karla finds out about the bead thing, and it’s not as natural for her as it was for Cody.  

Luckily for Karla, James was making a bracelet in relation to his birthday earlier, giving Karla the excuse to copycat the idea for her wife’s supposed birthday (which is actually in February).  James gives up his bead no problem, but Geo is oddly resistant to the idea.  Karla needs to trade him a bunch of her beads to get his one that she needs, but he does acquiesce in the end.  Still, this makes her believe she needs a different tack with Lindsay and Cassidy.  I’d say you could just come clean to them, to help save their alliance, but given that she didn’t with James, I guess she wants to keep the idol a secret, which I can’t fault too much.  Karla ends up trading an earring apiece to the women for their bead, which should throw up IMMEDIATE red flags for them!  Those were nice earrings!  Probably not too expensive, but giving up such a personal item for something so random as a bead seems, at best, problematic.  The women seem to buy it, though, so that just leaves Ryan.  

Like Geo, Ryan is reluctant to part with his beads.  Karla tries to do a “we’re exchanging keepsakes” thing, but when Ryan is only willing to offer her one of his socks (which, after a week without bathing, ew), she has to change tactics again.  This should ALSO make Ryan suspicious, but given that Karla’s tactic is to offer him something nice for his girlfriend in exchange, he eventually gives it up.  Thus, Karla has her vote back, and an idol no one knows about.  Not pulled off as flawlessly as Cody’s, but it seems to get the job done, and it’s tough to argue with results.  No matter how much you want to.  

Our challenge today is a carbon-copy of a couple of elements from “Survivor 42”.  Pretty sure some of the structures on the platforms are repainted ones from that season even.  Three tribe members swim to retrieve keys, one at a time.  They bring them to a platform, where the other two players use them to unlock a turtle puzzle they must solve.  The first two tribes to do so win immunity, as well as varying amounts of tools and fruit.  As standard and boring a challenge as you get in this era of the show.  

Even our misdirection can’t help us much.  I’ve seen weaker on the show, but this is not that great.  The trouble is two of our tribes, Dumbass and Vesi, have gotten strategic content this episode, while Coco has not.  Not a huge issue, so long as Coco dominates the challenge, but no!  They’re behind for most of it.  Thus, when Dumbass cruises to an easy victory, it’s clear Vesi is going back to Tribal Council, despite Coco being behind.  Once again, Nneka flubs the puzzle (and given she was the only common element in both puzzle portions, it’s clearly on her this time), just standing there watching while Coco pulls away.  

Really, the only cool part of this challenge was Noelle.  As she had to be on the swimming portion, and as we established that she can’t take her prosthetic in the water, she must go one-legged.  Not too bad overall but it will make one particular obstacle (getting up a series of crate stares before diving in) difficult.  Noelle, however, pulls it off effortlessly, or at least with no more effort than anyone else doing the challenge, and that’s pretty cool.  

But now, Dumbass must make a choice, choosing one person from each tribe to go off somewhere, presumably whatever the equivalent of “Shipwheel Island” is called this season, with each coming back before the next Tribal Council.  They choose Noelle from Vesi and James from Coco, while Owen volunteers for their own tribe.  As Owen is really the only one they have information on at this point, and he’s nominally on both sides (aligned with the men, but the women think he’s on board against Gabler), can’t fault them for not objecting too hard.  The gentlemen are kind enough to help Noelle hop one-legged into the boat, and I certainly hope that they’ll let her grab a new prosthetic before the island.  I don’t doubt James and Owen would be willing to help her, and the hike to the rock is not DIFFICULT per se, but doing it one-legged?  Brutal.  

Emotions remain the order of the day at Vesi.  Nneka breaks down about Noelle being the next to go, mostly because she’s not at camp to defend herself.  Everyone else, however, breaks down about the need to vote off Nneka.  While I don’t believe in making your tribe stronger by voting someone off (addition by subtraction, if you will), since there’s no guarantee anyone would do BETTER on a puzzle than Nneka, it can’t be denied that she’s earned a potential vote-off this episode after repeated poor challenge performance.  It may not help Vesi, but it certainly will hurt them the least in terms of challenges.  They also note that they have no more doubts about Noelle’s ability to perform in challenge.  You had doubts?  The woman’s a PARALYMPIAN for crying out loud!  Challenge performance from her should be the least of your concerns.  

Emotionally?  That’s another matter.  Nneka is the team mom that everyone likes.  Her boot is seen by nearly all as a cruel necessity.  Only Cody is on the fence, since Nneka is his ride-or-die.  Really, Cody’s the only one who shouldn’t want Nneka gone.  For Dwight and Noelle, they stay safe despite being the technical minority, while getting rid of Nneka keeps Jesse’s options open.  In his mind, he and Dwight are the power couple against the individuals of Cody and Noelle in this scenario.  Little downside for him.  

Over at The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we see that production did deign to let Noelle put on another prosthetic.  Good thing too, since the island is going back to its roots and having them hike up a huge hill, something that, while not impossible, would probably have violated the Geneva convention if forced to be done missing one leg.  Noelle goes over the backstory of her leg, and again, can’t complain.  Relevant to what’s happening on screen.  

This trip really is Noelle’s time to shine.  The parchment before the hike tells them to get to know one another, but we really only see Noelle talking.  At first I’m inclined to dock her points for spilling the beans to people she barely knows, but she is on the bottom, and she doesn’t actually give away that much.  She doesn’t tell the alliances, but only truthfully says she was left out of the vote.  This serves to make her seem, not unfairly, like a free agent, and so the men are open to working with her come the merge.  Of course, they should say yes regardless, but it’s still decent maneuvering on her part.  She may not get much in return, but she hasn’t given away as much as it would seem at first blush.  

Oh, and nice though this alliance is, I have no faith that it will last.  These gunshot alliances fail more often than they succeed.  Our closest equivalent last season would be the Hai/Drea/Lindsay one, and look how well that turned out.  

The hike may have changed, but the mechanism remains the same.  Everyone picks risk or not risk, those risking drawing a parchment out of a corresponding bag that either had an advantage or a lost vote.  Sensing a need (so perhaps she doesn’t have as much faith in Jesse as it seemed), Noelle asked the men to forgo their shot so she can have a chance to make it through and work with them.  This is a no-brainer for Owen.  With the men needing all the numbers they can get, he can’t afford to risk his vote.  As he wasn’t going to risk anyway, why not get at least a good relationship for the future out of it?  James is a bit more complex, since, as a part of a solid majority where his vote is not strictly necessary, he COULD risk his vote, and it might be better for his game long-term to have an advantage.  Still, he’s in a solid position either way, and it’s hard to fault him too much for not wanting to rock the boat, even with two people he’s just met.  Noelle gets her parchment and all head back to camp.  

After offering to be searched, which no one takes her up on, Noelle reveals it would not have mattered anyway.  Her advantage was hidden in her prosthesis, good for her.  It’s no Kellee Kim Bun Hiding Place from “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but it’s a good one.  Less good is her advantage.  A vote steal, where Gabler got an idol.  True, she doesn’t know what Gabler has, this is still useful, and at least has the edge of not being time-limited that we hear.  This does make me wonder what determines the advantage, though.  I could see it being a “each trip is a different advantage” thing, but I could also see it being determined by the number of people who risk.  Only one person risking gets a relatively weak advantage, two gets stronger but time-limited, and three gets stronger than that type of thing.  Either is plausible, and I’m curious whether this will be clarified in further episodes.  

The one drawback to Noelle denying risking her vote and getting any advantage is that, come the time to use it.  That could potentially be soon, since Noelle could still be on the bottom.  Tribal Council, however, throws that possibility out the window.  With the somber tone, there’s little doubt that the person people like more will be gone, which is Nneka in this scenario.  The only individual moment worth commenting on is the rare bit of levity.  As a political science student, Jesse becomes living at the horrible scale his tribe uses when discussing their levels of nervousness.  

Yeah, misdirection is not this episode’s strong suit, and Nneka goes without Noelle needing to use her idol.  I’m mixed on this.  It was definitely the smart move, but while I don’t dislike Noelle, I just found Nneka more interesting, so I am sorry to see her go.  She takes it all with good grace, but it’s sad nonetheless.  

And that really hits at this episode’s strength: The emotion.  While not missing, the misdirection was lackluster at best, and with the shortened time frame from the past two episodes, coupled with time devoted to The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we didn’t get a ton of strategy talk, and what we got was very uneven.  The show worked with what it had, though, and you really felt the weight of each moment, and the pain our contestants were going through.  Thus, while perhaps not as strong as the previous episodes, this one was still solid and gripping.  A good episode, and we hope for more and better in the future.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.