Well, with the off season soon to turn “On” again, the writing bug has bitten once more, and I’d like to get one more of these out before we talk about Season 40… I mean Season 39! Yes, yes, there is still one season to go before the fabled “all-winners”, but for now, I’d like to focus on something a bit earlier in the timeline. As early as we’ve had in these blogs so far. Yes, it’s time for us to go back in time, to the days of “Survivor Pearl Islands”.
Before we start, though, a couple of quick notes. As you probably know by now, this blog will contain SPOILERS for how the season turns out. If for some reason you haven’t seen “Survivor Pearl Islands”, stop reading this blog right now and go watch it. Really. It’s that good. But do return when you’re done. Or, you know, just don’t care about spoilers.
Still with us? Good. Now, normally I’d dive right into the scenario, but I should mention that this scenario is not entirely my idea. While I did modify it for a situation I see as being more realistic, this scenario is technically the brainchild of user XX_TR15T1NHO_XX on Reddit. Thank you for your contribution. It is much appreciated.
THE IMPACT: Unsurprisingly, what we’re changing here is the most controversial part of “Survivor Pearl Islands”: The Outcast Twist. What might be surprising is that what I’m changing is that it still happens. Yes, though I’m sure many wonder what a season without the Outcasts at all would have been like, I don’t see the producers NOT doing this twist. Even if it probably ended up being a bad idea, it was also an obvious idea that needed to be done at some point, at it fit the “pirate” theme about as well as anything, so it definitely stays in. What I think could change is the outcome of the challenge. Don’t misunderstand me. Morgan still loses. With how beat down they were that day, I doubt they could have won a staring contest. Drake, on the other hand? Drake had a decent shot. Bear in mind, the Outcasts had a number of advantages in the challenge, even if it was presented as fair. Their set of cells were used for the challenge demonstration, leaving their ground softer. They had the bright idea to use their ribbons on the arms as rope, which made for better rope than the materials everyone else had. Most important, and I still don’t know how they were allowed this, they got to use all six of their tribe in building the pole, which is no small difference in what ends up being a pole-building race. And yet, despite all of these advantages, Drake was not far behind in that challenge. So, I think it’s within the bounds of reason to say that one small change could lead to Drake being the initial victor, with only Morgan losing a member in favor of the Outcasts.
So Drake pulls out a win somehow. Any little thing could have given them the edge. Maybe production takes away one or more of the Outcast’s advantages. Maybe Drake’s cells get used for the demo. Regardless of how it happens, Drake now wins the challenge, with Morgan coming in second. This, of course, means we have one less Tribal Council, and Shawn Cohen doesn’t get voted out this episode. But pretty much everything else still happens the way it does. Osten still quits, Savage still rants against the Outcasts, and I even think they hold the Outcast Tribal Council until the next episode. We might see some of it this episode, but the cliffhanger of “Who gets to come back?” would be too great for the show to pass up. Since we’re in the next episode, we move on to the next section.
THE FALLOUT: Normally, when changing a season this far back, I’d only use vague generalities for this section. However, “Survivor Pearl Islands” comes in the pre-hidden-immunity-idol days, thus making specific prediction easier. True, individual immunity is still a factor, but a slightly more predictable one, so I’ll try my hand at how the season would generally go down, blow-by-blow.
First off, the Outcasts. With only one person to vote back on, they naturally vote back on Burton. It’s not even a contest. Some people may not have wanted Lill around to “ruin their vacation”, but the overwhelming sentiment of the Outcasts was to have one of their tribe win it all, and it was pretty much universally agreed that Burton was their best option.
So Burton comes back, and here we have the first major change beyond just one person coming back: Burton is now on Morgan pre-merge. Remember, the only reason Burton ended up on Drake in our timeline was because Lill was with him, and pulled a Morgan buff. With only Morgan losing, Burton now has no choice but to go to Morgan. And with that, any delusions about Drake having power come the merge go out the window. On the surface, losing Osten for Burton looks like it gives Drake a 6-4 edge. But don’t forget, the only reason Drake ended up winning out in our timeline was because Burton had to play nice with Drake since he ended up back on that tribe. And Lill had an axe to grind with Savage, and Burton was loyal to Lill, so Drake it was. In this timeline, Burton has neither incentive, so you can bet that he’s declaring himself Morgan Strong. Not only does this give Morgan a solid five, Burton can now spill the inner workings of Drake to them, giving them even more of an edge.
Further working against Drake is that they were a fractious bunch. It’s hard to remember, given how effectively they dominated overall, but the Drakes did not particularly like each other. Shawn and Jonny Fairplay both played nice when they needed to, but really didn’t want the Rupert-Sandra-Christa threesome around. Combine that with a solid Morgan five with no clear cracks, and I’m guessing both of them flip to give Morgan a 7-3 majority.
So, with that settled, Rupert goes home, right? I don’t think so. In this alliance, Savage is still calling the shots, and he and Rupert had a working relationship. Note that even in our timeline, his alliance alone didn’t choose to target Rupert. True, he had immunity, but we don’t see them discussing it even before he has immunity. No, I think Savage sets up a “Take out the weak” mentality, and so Sandra and Christa are the primary targets. Of the two, though it pains me to say it, I think Sandra goes out, depriving us of a season of Sandra. I’m sure many of you are saying “Blasphemy!”, right now, but I think Sandra probably would have been the target. Savage wanted out the “Wimpy little non-leaders” as he said in “Survivor Cambodia”, and remember, he holds a grudge. Remember Sandra taking the Morgan’s tarp after an early reward challenge? Remember how aggravated al the Morgans were with her? I don’t think Savage would have forgotten that, and I think he would have thrown his weight around to ensure that she left, with Fairplay, Shawn, and Burton going along because they have no choice. Sandra’s a great social player, but as we saw on “Survivor Game Changers”, sometimes the numbers are just insurmountable.
So, Morgan’s up 7-2 now. This means that Morgan does that Pagonging we’d expect, right? Well, yes and no. Things are obviously better for Morgan in this timeline, but I don’t think things are as straightforward as one might think. Again, Savage was big on that “keep the strong” thing, but Savage also holds grudges. And apart from Sandra and Jonny Fairplay, who did Savage hate the most? Why, the person who came back from the Outcasts of course! Even in this timeline, he still declares they “Do not deserve to be here”, and with a now comfortable majority (Rupert also holds a grudge, so I doubt he’s willing to work with Fairplay or Shawn ever again), I think he turns on Burton. Since the next immunity was basically just a popularity contest, someone like Ryan O. or Tijuana probably wins. With Burton vulnerable, Savage strikes, and Burton becomes the first member of the jury. Hell, I think Savage probably pulls in Rupert and Christa, both to get on good terms with a potential ally, and to make sure Burton’s boot is unanimous.
The next vote afterward is pretty straightforward. Savage, still bitter about Fairplay’s comments at the last reward steal, votes out Fairplay. Yes, this means no “Dead Grandma” lie. We’ll come back to that in the next section. But it’s the vote afterward where things get really interesting. You see, the most popular theory I’ve seen online for if the Outcasts don’t happen is “Morgan dominates, and Savage wins, because Savage was the leader of the Morgans.” Personally, this never rang true for me. Oh, I’m definitely sure Morgan would dominate, and Savage would definitely do better than in our timeline. But for me, Savage’s view of the game is too simplistic, and his moralizing wouldn’t have rung true with everybody. The other Morgans respected him, sure, but as the game got nearer to the end, I think greed would have overcome the Morgans, especially with vengeful Drakes like Fairplay and Shawn whispering in their ear. And here’s where I think things split. Ryan O. was probably going to stick with Savage. The “shields” strategy works in his favor. But Tijuana and Darrah? At some point, they were going to split. Darrah was most on the outs of the remaining Morgans, as the alternate target to Lill at her boot. Tijuana, while generally loyal, was smart enough not to throw her game away for Savage, and would have felt she had the social bonds to survive. Shawn is still probably the next to go, but I think here Tijuana and Darrah approach Rupert and Christa about developing a foursome to take out Savage, which I think they go for. Rupert probably gets a confessional about being conflicted about voting out his “buddy”, but given that he still believes in (loyal) Drakes, with some prompting from Christa, he probably goes for it. Thus, Savage goes out at the final six. A better showing than before, but still not a win.
From there, I think Tijuana and Darrah slip back with Ryan O. for the remainder of the season. Now the precedent for voting out the physical powerhouses has been set, and Rupert is now the biggest fish in that pond. There’s no way he wins that final five immunity challenge, since it favored the skinny, so he’s out. Tempting though it would be for Ryan O. to leave here, I think there was still enough “Morgan Loyalty” (or at least fear of reprisal from the jury) to get Christa out. Ryan O. can’t make it past the Final Three, though. Darrah was a challenge beast by this point, and that Final Immunity Challenge did not favor strength, so I’d say Darrah wins, and votes out Ryan O.
Thus, we have a final two of Tijuana and Darrah, with a jury of Burton, Fairplay, Shawn, Savage, Rupert, Christa, and Ryan O. Quite a difference from our own timeline. It’s tough to say who wins in this scenario. I think Tijuana has the better social game of the two, but also burned Savage and Ryan O. harder due to being closer to them. Since they’re only two votes on the jury, though, I’m inclined to end off this section by declaring Tijuana the winner in this timeline.
THE LEGACY: It feels wrong to say, but while by no means a “bad” season, this version of “Survivor Pearl Islands” does not gain the legendary status of the one in our timeline. True, it does have some things going for it that our timeline doesn’t. Savage probably takes Rupert’s place as the “beloved, burned leader” archetype. The zeitgeist that is Rupert is probably even bigger than in our timeline, as while he no longer has an arch-nemesis in Fairplay, he lasts longer and has the arc of bringing back a losing tribe from the brink post-merge. Tijuana is probably a MUCH bigger deal, and gets lauded as having one of the best social games the how had seen up to that point. But the trouble is that the post-merge loses a lot of its momentum in this timeline. True, the Savage Vote is probably the equivalent of the Rupert Vote in our timeline, but the Savage Vote comes two episodes further down the season than the Rupert Vote in our timeline, so you’ve got a lot of season to slog through before things get exciting. There’s some intrigue with “How long can Rupert hang on?”, but it just doesn’t have the excitement that the post-merge in our timeline had. Then there are the moments that just don’t have any equivalent in this timeline. The family visit passes without incident, denying us the “Dead Grandma” lie. With no Rupert vote, there’s no sabotaging the fish. And, perhaps worst of all, we get no “I sear on my two kids I’m gonna screw you and Burton.” The post-merge is intriguing, strategically, and I think this season becomes beloved among hard-core game fans. But, for the everyday viewer, it’s just not as exciting.
So, how does this change our returnee prospects? Well, despite having less of an impact overall, I think “Survivor Pearl Islands” actually initially gets more returnees than in our timeline. Rupert still gets asked back for “Survivor All-Stars”, but I think Tijuana ends up taking Alicia Calaway’s spot. After all, Alicia was seen as kind of a “huh?” choice at the time, and if you’ve got a relatively popular black female winner knocking on your doorstep, you take her on. I do think that Tijuana fades into the background, as while she’s well-liked at the time, she just isn’t as memorable as Sandra is in ours. I’m tempted to bring Savage back for “Survivor All-Stars” as well, but I just don’t see who he can replace. He most closely fits Colby’s archetype, but there’s no way Colby of all people doesn’t come back for “Survivor All-Stars”. “Survivor Micronesia” probably stays the same as well. True, Fairplay doesn’t have the “Dead Grandma” lie to give him infamy, but if they brought back Boston Rob for the potential shown pre-merge, I think they do the same for Fairplay. But, of course, Savage is our big hero of the season, so you know he’s coming back at some point. “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” is his time. Savage, in this timeline, as seen as the robbed, heroic leader of the Morgans, so on a season with a tribe called “Heroes”, there’s no way he doesn’t return. He probably takes Rupert’s spot, but if Rupert stays in the public consciousness enough, I could see Savage overruling Tom Westman as well. Assuming Fairplay still quits “Survivor Micronesia”, we probably don’t have a representative for the “Villains” side, so Natalie Bolton probably comes in in place of Sandra. Even as someone who really likes Sandra, it would be nice to see Natalie Bolton back.
Speaking of Sandra, does she go quietly into that good night of “Survivor” obscurity? If you’re asking that question, clearly you don’t know Sandra. Even if she lost out on a lot of her iconic moments by missing the jury, Sandra had enough arguments pre-merge that I think she gets the nod for “Survivor Cambodia”. Whether she passes the vote I’m not sure, but I think she’s on the ballot, and I could see people like Ryan O. and Darrah being up there as well. I don’t see anyone here getting the nod for “Survivor Caramoan”, since they were just too far in the past at this point. For what it’s worth, Rupert probably still comes back for “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, since that reason didn’t care as much about how iconic you were on your season “Survivor Game Changers” will be our last major discussion for returnees (I don’t think anyone here qualifies for “Edge of Extinction” territory, nor would I wish anyone on that season), as I think Savage, being even more of a zeitgeist than before, probably comes back one more time. If Sandra or someone else does well on “Survivor Cambodia”, they probably come back as well. Let’s say Savage takes JT’s spot, and Sandra keeps the spot she has in our timeline.
Oy, my head hurts from all the different threads to follow in this timeline, but I hope you enjoyed it. “Survivor Pearl Islands” is still a great season, and even in this timeline, I doubt it’s vilified, but rather just seen as kind of ok. You’d have to work hard to make this season bad, but evidently, it’s easy to make it less memorable.
This will probably be the last of these blogs pre-season 39, but even so, more will come at some point in the future, as I’ve discovered a love for this format. As such, the suggestions for future scenarios remains open! A quick reminder of the rules below:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in talking about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol for himself in that same episode, meaning the flip doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
And there you have it. Hope, once again, that you’ve enjoyed my ramblings, and see you in my next blog, whatever it may be!
-Matt
idolspeculation 