Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Cast Assessment

Ask and ye shall receive!  I complain about the lack of an official cast reveal; a few days later we get said official cast reveal.  Now, to complain about the lack of an intro, and the 26 day format being made permanent…

My dear readers, it is my profound pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  With the cast and tribe divisions now officially announced, it’s time once again for me to talk about my thoughts on them based on very little information, so that people can laugh about how wrong my takes are down the line.  Yes, even after over a decade of blogging, I still occasionally say such crazy things as “I think Katrina Radke will win the season!”

There’s not a lot of business to take care of for this one.  It will be a pretty standard cast assessment blog, at least by my standards.  That said, my longtime readers will know that I usually put a lot of emphasis on one’s pet peeves as an indicator of how they’ll do.  Generally, if it’s something you’re all but guaranteed to encounter out there (liars, for example), I’m less jazzed on your chances.  I won’t be doing that nearly as much this season.  Not because I’ve come to believe my methodology is flawed.  Far from it!  I won’t bring it up much because almost EVERYONE on this cast has a pet peeve that makes me perceive their chances negatively.  Thus, rather than being an exception, having a bad pet peeve is now the NORM.  As such, it is pointless to mention it when it happens, and I will instead be bringing up the few people who DON’T have a chances-tanking pet peeve when relevant, and also those who have concerning, but not guaranteed to be there, pet peeves.  Just wanted to make it clear why I was doing what I was doing.  The implications… will be discussed later.  For now, let’s talk about our cast, in no particular order!

Nneka Ejere (43, Phramacist, Weatherford, TX, Vesi Tribe): Confession time: I did a double-take when I first saw Nneka’s age in her bio.  Based on her photo, which I saw first, I would have easily lopped a good 15 years AT LEAST off her actual age.  I bring this up, partly to make fun of my own biases, but also to explain why I’m not immediately out on what the show considers to be an “older woman”, which is usually a safe bet in these sorts of predictive blogs.  If she has the physical strength and stamina to back up her looks, age should not be a major issue for her.  The more minor third reason is that Nneka doesn’t give us a whole lot else to work with.  Her pet peeves, while concerning, are no more so than the vast majority of the rest of the cast’s.  Her comparing herself to Cirie I would say is an issue, but more so due Cirie being such a high bar than any sort of failing on Nneka’s part.  Combine what seems like a very average player with the tribe least likely to go to Tribal Council pre-merge, and you’ve got a recipe for a good mid-merge boot.  She MIGHT be in trouble if she costs her tribe a challenge and they go to a pre-merge Tribal Council, but I find that unlikely.  Otherwise she’ll be a solid, but unremarkable, player who will have a good run in the game.  

Mike “Gabler” Gabler (52, Heart Valve Specialist, Meridian, ID, Baka Tribe): Here we have the guy who stood out to the majority of the fandom from the season preview, and understandably so.  A good, recognizable silhouette or article of clothing works wonders, especially in the short time of a preview.  Between his distinctive beard and cap, Gabler has that in spades.  He also stands out as the oldest player this season, and again, it would be easy to write him off as an easy early boot based on that alone.  I, however, am a bit more bullish on Gabler’s chances.  Granted, I can see his tribe going to Tribal Council at least an average amount early on, and they are all significantly younger than he is, so Gabler could seem to be in trouble.  What intrigues me, though is the combination of his location and his occupation.  Gabler is clearly a country boy.  Grew up in Texas, now lives in Iowa.  Even on “Survivor”, you can see the stereotypes.  Think Colby Donaldson or Ben Driebergen.  That’s the sort of person you think of as coming from those places, and certainly Gabler LOOKS the part.  Yet, the occupation that is effectively “doctor” often conjures up completely opposite images than the stereotypes just mentioned.  This means for me that A) Gabler is smarter than he looks and B) he can move comfortably in multiple social worlds.  This is why I think his age won’t be as big an issue for him, and even if his tribe loses some, I can see him making the merge.  I don’t see him making much beyond that, since people will realize how threatening he is given that he’s still around, but an early boot?  I personally doubt it.  

Noelle Lambert (25, U.S. Paralympian, Manchester, NH, Vesi Tribe): The first thing most anyone is going to notice about Noelle is that she is an amputee; her left leg now being a prosthesis.  This ground is, if you’ll pardon the pun, well-tread on the show by now, with the likes of Chad Crittenden on “Survivor Vanuatu”, and Kelly Bruno on “Survivor Nicaragua”.  I’d lean toward Noelle emulating more of the former than the latter in terms of game.  Partly this is due to her being on the tribe unlikely to attend Tribal Council pre-merge, but I don’t see her having any major conflict with her tribemates either.  All fairly athletic, on the younger side, and fairly easygoing.  Noelle should be simpatico in that regard.  Her prosthetic leg, unfortunately, is what dooms her chances in the long-run.  It’s rarely said out loud, lest someone look like a jerk, but people with a visible (for want of a better term) disability are a target, lest they get the dreaded “sympathy vote” in the end.  Noelle, while a perfectly fine player, does not seem skilled enough to overcome this, and thus will be out in the early-to-mid-merge due to being perceived as a threat in the end.  

Owen Knight (30, College Admissions Director, New Orleans, LA, Baka Tribe): Jumping ahead a bit in our discussion, one thing about this cast that separates it from most recent casts is less of the “nerd” archetype, at least overtly.  There are some “closeted nerds”, again for want of a better term, but ones who wear their nerd card proudly on their sleeve are thin on the ground.  Overall I think this is a good thing.  Even as a nerd myself, it’s nice to have more variety in the archetypes we see.  Owen is the exception to this, and it’s part of why I like the guy.  He’s also one of the first to have pet peeves that AREN’T a deal-breaker for his chances on an average season.  All right, “Entitled people” is a bit concerning, but 4-way stop signs are scare on the ground on an undeveloped island in Fiji, and thereby finding people who don’t know what to do at them will be difficult.  Unfortunately for Owen, much as I like his personality, I don’t have a ton of hope for his game chances.  He does seem to be physically fit enough to avoid a super-early target, but the lack of other overt nerds makes him stand out, and given how they’re generally perceived in this day and age of the metagame, makes him a threat.  I’d mark him as a late-pre-merge boot, probably the last one right before we merge.  It’s possible he squeaks by to the early merge, but not much beyond that.  He’s just too visible and too threatening to make it farther.  

Justine Brennan (29, Cyber Security Sales, Marina del Rey, CA, Vesi Tribe): Justine should be incredibly thankful that she is on the tribe she’s on, as there’s not much else to recommend her.  People who appear to be very “worldly” in the sense of living a fairly “polished” lifestyle usually don’t do well in my estimation, just due to not handling the environment well.  Justine is the one of the cast who most screams this, but fortunately for her, she’s likely not going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  Unlike what this archetype usually implies, she seems at least decently fit enough to not be a challenge sink, so she won’t be the factor that could cost them in an outside scenario.  Once she’s at the merge, which I don’t see her having SPECTACULAR game skills, she seems at least competent enough to not screw herself over, plus at that point it’s usually the threats who are targetted.  As such, expect Justine to be a mid-to-late merge boot, possibly even making it to the finale, though with zero chance of winning at that point.  

Cody Assenmacher (35, Elevator Sales, Honolulu, HI, Vesi Tribe): The country boy transplanted to island life (Cody is originally from Iowa), Cody is our first contestant to be from Hawaii at the time of filming (Jonas Otsuji of “Survivor One World” was originally from Hawaii, but listed as Lehi, Utah in his bio), and the second so far to share a name with a prominent “Total Drama Island” contestant.  Sadly, that’s about the most interesting thing I have to say about him.  As a player, Cody is… Fine.  He’s fine.  Just fine.  Likable, physically fit, inoffensive.  Perfectly fine guy, but just does not stand out as a player or a character.  Probably be a solid player, but uninspiring.  I can see him leading his tribe, due to being a good consensus pick, but this is why he won’t go father than the mid-merge.  Again, too big a threat to keep around, but a perfectly serviceable, if uninspiring, player otherwise.  Though I will say comparing himself to Malcolm does show good self-knowledge of his play style, at least.  

Morriah Young (28, Teacher, Philadelphia, PA, Baka Tribe): You probably remember Morriah from the season preview as “The lady with the rainbow hair”.  Much like her hair, Morriah definitely stands out as a character.  Very bubbly and energetic, Morriah is very much of the social-network-savvy generation that “Survivor” is loving lately.  She opened a “Selfie Museum” for goodness’ sake!  Sadly, much like a firework, Morriah will be a bright flash, but flare out fairly early.  Morriah’s trouble is that prowess with social media does not translate to social skills.  Not that her social skills are bad, but there’s no connection between her implied strengths and the strengths needed in the game.  Morriah seems more worldly than a lot of the other players this season, and not the most fit (though hardly unfit), which could tank her chances.  I will give credit that James Clement (“Survivor China”) is an unusual comparison in this day and age of “Survivor”, but it also supports my thesis of “Great character, not as good at the game as they need to be”.  I don’t see her being the ABSOLUTE first out, but especially if she costs her tribe a challenge, she’s out pre-merge.  Good candidate for a second chance season, though.  

Sami Layadi (19, Pet Cremator, Las Vegas, NV, Baka Tribe): Looks like I did the “Top 5 and Bottom 5 Occupations” too early.  “Pet Cremator” should definitely be on the list.  Aside from the interesting occupation Sami, once again, doesn’t have a whole lot to make him stand out.  Perfectly nice young guy, seems like he’ll have decent gamesmanship, clearly physically fit.  Just not anything to really recommend him.  His age is really the major concern I would have (apart from the general pet peeve issue, of course), since we’ve seen that teenagers, generally, just don’t have the maturity and life experience needed to do super well.  The occasional exception (Julia Sokolowski of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” and Michael Yerger of “Survivor Ghost Island”) notwithstanding, this is a demographic that just doesn’t have good track record, and I don’t see Sami being enough of a stand-out to truly buck that trend.  I do think he makes the merge, as there are other people with bigger targets on his tribe during the pre-merge phase, but he’s going to mess up somehow, due to his age alone, and thus we have another early-to-mid merge boot.  

Karla Cruz Godoy (28, Educational Project Manager, Newark, DE, Coco Tribe): The “Tattooed lady in blue” as I described her from the season preview, and our first representative from the third tribe in the order this list is being done.  Karla was an early favorite of mine based solely on the preview, and I’m pleased to say her bio only makes me like her more.  She talks a lot about her family’s immigration and tough life growing up, which could turn people off, but I find to be a breath of fresh air on a cast that’s been fairly bland so far overall.  She stands out visually and in her stance on life, but not in a way that seems likely to be obnoxious or annoying to her fellow players.  She’s even got the least-problematic pet peeves so far!  True, “Pessimism” is a bit of a concern, but less guaranteed to come up than other’s peeves so far, and otherwise inoffensive in that area.  About the worst that I can say for her is that she has an irritating grammatical redundancy in her bio with “…became teenage parents at the age of 16…”.  I suppose I could offer the same criticism as Nneka, since Karla also lists Cirie as the player she’s most similar too, but again, it’s a question of setting a high bar for yourself rather than being an actively bad thing for your game.  So, is Karla one of my winner picks?  Sadly no.  It’s tough to talk about Karla’s placement, since it largely depends on the other members of her tribe, and she’s the first member of her tribe to come up on this blog.  From my perspective, her tribe will very much be a “bro-down”, more so than any other tribe here, but also has the most challenge sinks.  Karla is not exactly unfit, but she’s not a challenge beast like a lot of others on this cast.  She’s likely going to be more “in” with the dominant alliance on her tribe than the other women, but is also on the tribe I would say is most likely to lose a lot of challenges.  If they can break about even with Baka, Karla’s game skills probably take her to the mid-to-late merge, but if she costs the tribe a challenge, or they lose a lot in general, expect her to be out pre-merge.  Either way, expect her to be fun.  

Ryan Medrano (25, Warehouse Associate, El Paso, TX, Coco Tribe): Speaking of the bros, this guy is so into the physical part of the game that he lists Rupert as the guy he’s most like.  Not exactly a good outlook for the game in general, but for the tribe he’s on, I think he’ll do all right.  Not going to lead an alliance, but I expect him to get into the majority in the pre-merge pretty easily.  He won’t be the biggest threat come the merge, but like Rupert on most seasons, he’s out somewhere in the mid-to-late merge, since a physical player like him is always something of a threat.  Yet another player who’s generally perfectly nice, and will coast on that a good way, but just not that interesting or with the skills to overcome the few red flags he has.  

Lindsay Carmine (42, Pediatric Nurse, Downington, PA, Coco Tribe): Our third “older person” on this season.  Despite being the youngest of those three, Lindsay does not have something that can counteract the target this puts on her, unlike the other two.  No beating around the bush here: Lindsay is my pick for first boot of the season.  About the best that can be said for her is that none of her pet peeves are particularly concerning.  Cutting in line, smacking gum, and playing games on one’s phone when talking to others are not things that will be in much supply on the island.  But that “older person” target is tough to overcome, and combine this with Lindsay’s tribe not being that physically strong in general, and I look to her to be gone super early.  She’s on a tribe that doesn’t seem like a good natural mesh for her personality, and so will need time to bond to have any chance.  Time she sadly doesn’t have, if my read of relative tribe strength is accurate.  It’s unfortunate for her, since she seems perfectly nice, and again, not bad at the game by a stretch.  But you need better than “ok” to beat the “older player” target on a tribe like this, and time Lindsay does not have.  

Jeanine Zheng (24, UX Designer, San Francisco, CA, Baka Tribe): Once again, another “Wordly player” without the protection of a challenge-dominant tribe.  Jeanine pays more lip service to being good in the outdoors than the likes of Morriah, but I’m overall not seeing it.  She’s the generic attractive woman who compares herself to Kim Spradlin, with not a lot else going on.  Add onto that a described “introvert”, and a tribe that will probably lose a few challenges, and Jeanine is another textbook pre-merge boot.  

Jesse Lopez (30, Political Science PhD., Durham, NC, Vesi Tribe): On a more positive note, here we have my first pick to win the whole thing.  If you were hold me down and force me to only pick one person to do well on the season, I would go with Jesse, and not just because he’s on the tribe that I see as most likely to dominate.  The dude has something the best winners have: A non-threatening perception that hides a cutthroat mind.  Looking at him, as he says, you don’t see a scholar.  Dude seems tough, yet easygoing enough to not get on people’s nerves.  Yet, he studied political science, arguably one of the best majors for understanding the game of “Survivor”, and enjoys playing chess with his son.  Both wholesome, and good practice!  Dude is a threat, a stealth leader most won’t see coming.  His tribe may be a target some the merge, but I don’t see him as the one being targeted.  If he influences a few votes from the shadows, he very likely puts himself in a position to win the whole thing, and the game will be all the better for it.  

Cassidy Clark (26, Designer, Austin, TX, Coco Tribe): Hoo boy.  Starting out, Cassidy seemed all right.  Yeah, she was not on the best tribe for her, but she seemed easygoing enough to fit with the guys and seemed adaptable.  With some game savvy, though she might be able to worm her way in ahead of Karla.  Then I got to reading her pet peeves.  They’re bad.  GOOD LORD, they’re bad.  Even by the standards of THIS CAST, they’re bad.  “Narrow-Minded, Judgmental People” is bad on it’s own, but ultimately a run-of-the-mill red flag.  “People who have no reverence for Mother Nature and all her beautiful beings!” is a whole other level of “woah”.  You remember Courtney Marit from “Survivor Exile Island”?  Remember how awkward and cringey she was talking about nature?  How it alienated her from a bunch of her tribe?  Guess what, she gets a second shot now!  Cassidy was always going to have an uphill battle with her starting tribe being likely to lose, and the core alliance unlikely to include her, but this just really puts the kibosh on her being anything other than a pre-merge boot.  Her age JUST saves her from being the first boot, but as soon as they go a second time?  Cassidy is toast.  

James Jones (37, Event Planner, Philadelphia, PA, Coco Tribe): James finds himself in a bit of a weird spot, in terms of demographic.  He doesn’t really hit the “older” designation as the show defines it, but neither is he so young that he automatically fits in with the younger group, despite the tribe still skewing young personality-wise.  That said, just because he isn’t a natural fit doesn’t mean he can’t fit.  He seems fairly easygoing, so unless he costs his tribe a challenge, I think he’ll slot in fairly easily with the other men of his tribe.  It helps that he’s another rare one this season with non-problematic pet peeves, specifically bad customer service and pushy salespeople.  His game smarts, while fine, seem like nothing to write home about, so I’d peg him as another early-to-mid merge boot.  Probably will find himself in the majority initially, but be taken out as a safe bet when said alliance gets targeted.  

Geo Bustamante (36, Project Manager, Honolulu, HI, Coco Tribe): In contrast to James, Geo will be the figurehead of the main alliance who doesn’t have as much going on as he thinks he does, but will avoid a target for being too obvious.  I think Geo does have SOME skills, and certainly his managerial experience can be an asset in forming an alliance.  But when you’re saying you’re as smart as the likes of Cochran and Boston Rob?  Yeah, I find that hard to believe.  Geo will last a good while, as he seems decent in challenges and his tribe will need his strength, but his overinflated sense of self will get the better of him eventually.  Probably somewhere around the early-to-mid merge, though after James.  

Elisabeth “Elie” Scott (31, Clinical Psychologist, Salt Lake City, UT, Baka Tribe): My second overall pick to win the whole thing.  How could I not favor my fellow psychology peep?  Her years of experience in the field, coupled with her relative maturity compared to most of the rest of her cast give her the skills she needs to make at least a deep run.  A stealth threat, I can easily see her squeezing her way to the end, then running roughshod over the other players at Final Tribal Council.  Granted she does dislike injustice, which there can be a LOT of on “Survivor”, but if she keeps that in check?  There’s very little in the way between her and one million dollars.  Just a skilled, competent player all around.  

Dwight Moore (22, Graduate Student, Collierville, TN, Vesi Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dwight is another one with comparatively less-objectionable pet peeves.  All right, “Arrogance” is a bit problematic, but again, lack of use of turn signals is both relatable and unlikely to happen on the island.  As to people making “The Office” jokes about his name, your guess is as good as mine.  Dwight strikes me as yet another easygoing guy, though with more charm and personality than most of them.  If nothing else, I can respect him appreciating Wendell’s game on “Survivor Ghost Island”, and it seems like that will fit well into his play style.  What stops me from giving him a better rating is his age.  Dude’s not a teenager, but 22 is still pretty young, and I just worry he doesn’t have the life experience needed to pull off a game he might otherwise have the talent for.  He should still make it deep, probably a mid-to-late merge position.  I could even see him being the person out right before the finale.  But win?  Try again in a few years, then we’ll talk.  

There we have our cast, and for the first time in a while, I’m not super thrilled.  While there are a few standouts I quite enjoy (Karla, Jesse, Owen), of the most part I found myself struggling to write about these people.  Very few of them were bad, or actively annoyed me in some way, but they were just… fine.  Nice, decent people with average game competence who just aren’t exciting.  Sort of a whole cast full of Jon Misch (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”).  That’s not the WORST a cast can do, but an exciting season it does not make for.  I hope I’m proven wrong, but I don’t have high hopes for this season to go down well in the history books.  In addition to this problem, we’re likely going to get a lot of new twists, which will take time to explain, and thus eat up screen time a la “Survivor 41”.  When you combine a cast I’m not wild about with the season likely being poorly edited, the outlook is grim.  

That said, things might be even worse than I predict.  Yes, we’re coming back to the pet peeves again.  I think there might be a reason we’ve got similar-sounding pet peeves here, and I think that reason is conflict.  By casting a lot of people with similar buttons to push, you can set yourself up for big, explosive conflicts.  Just one person does something wrong; the whole tribe goes off.  For some people, this is a plus, and makes for exciting tv.  For me, it means we’re doomed to a season of people either being bland, or yelling a lot and being unlikeable.  Let’s hope that I’m wrong.  

This negativity is too much, even for me, so let me end on a more lighthearted note: The tribe names.  Vesi and Coco are fine.  Standard, nothing to write home about.  And I’m sure Baka is an actual Fijian word, and related to the other two tribes in some way.  I’m sure what I’m about to talk about is in no way intended by the “Survivor” production crew.  But I am a nerd.  A nerd who watches a fair amount of subtitled anime.  So to me, I see “Baka”, and I immediately jump to the Japanese definition of the word.  It means, generally, “stupid”, though depending on the contest could also be translated as “idiot”, “moron”, or “dumbass”.  Thus, juvenile as it is, and even though it has ZERO bearing on the people on the tribe, I can’t help but read their tribe name that way.  Hence forth, through no fault of their own, the tribe shall be known, by me, as the “Dumbass Tribe”!

With that bit of levity out of the way, let us hope that my dire predictions are wrong, and I’ll see you in three weeks for the premier!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Kaoh Rong

Once again, if CBS will not fill the void in our fandom when this goes up by officially announcing the cast of the new season, then it falls to me to fill the void with needless speculation about “What Might Have Been”.  And oh, what a treat we have today.  “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is a personal favorite season of mine, largely due to giving us Aubry Bracco, my all-time favorite player at the time of this writing.  I acknowledge that the season has some flaws, mainly in the editing department, and this keeps if out of the “Great” category of seasons, but I still love it.  Definite room for improvement, though, so let’s see if one tiny change is enough.  

Before discussing said change, though, the usual reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead.  It’s difficult to talk about changing a season without comparing it to how the season actually went down in reality, so I can’t guarantee that this and future seasons won’t be spoiled in this blog.  Past seasons may also be mentioned as well.  Hence, read at your own risk.  

THE IMPACT

Like with Africa, which we talked about earlier this off-season, Kaoh Rong is something of a Holy Grail for “What-If?” scenarios.  Between the medical evacuations and the number of lucky coincidences that happen, there’s just a trove to go through.  Most of these center around Aubry in particular, since while you may say what you want about her in hindsight, she is presented as the main character of this season, so of course most story beats will seem to center around her.  In particular, it’s common for the Michele fans/Aubry detractors to point out that she was saved by luck (had Neal not been medevaced, she almost certainly goes at the merge), while the Aubry fans/Michele detractors will counter that Aubry was also screwed by luck (if Joe doesn’t eat a ton of meat at the final five, Michele almost certainly goes then, leading to an inevitable Aubry victory).  The point I’m making here is twofold: Luck is a factor in “Survivor”, for good or for ill, and these scenarios have been gone over to death by the fanbase, are both equally true, and thus not interesting enough to talk about in this blog on their own.  

Now that I’ve hopefully dodged THAT bullet, and also hopefully avoided reigniting a dead debate that was very cruel and unnecessary, we can talk about the actual change we’re going to make.  Rather than change the outcome of luck, we’re going to change someone else’s mind.  That someone is, of course, Aubry, and that time is going to be at the Final 6.  In our timeline, Tai pushed for ejecting Michele here, something Aubry could have gone along with.  She had Joe’s vote on lock, and Jason, the intended target of Michele and Cydney, would doubtless have gone along with the plan if only to save his own skin.  In our timeline, of course, Aubry sides with Michele and Cydney, citing Cydney as someone she’s tight with, and Jason goes home here.  

That said, what if Aubry decided to take more of an interest in Tai’s plan?  What if Aubry became concerned about the tight twosome that Michele and Cydney form?  We know from post-show interviews that the two were tight from the swapped Chan Loh (and thank you, by the way, show, for COMPLETELY leaving out that particular storyline, only adding to the confusion your ending brought).  It’s not impossible that Aubry becomes concerned about this, and decides to go along with Tai’s plan.  The immediate outcome, of course, is that Michele goes while Jason stays, but what about how the rest of the season (all two remaining episodes of it at least) plays out?  

THE FALLOUT

Aubry choosing to keep Jason is, of course, a controversial move.  I suspect Aubry justifies it to the cameras by emphasizing the Cydney/Michele bond, and also stating that Jason is not good at puzzles, or looks that good to the jury.  Even so, I’m sure this is seen by the fanbase as a possible game-ruining move at the time, and Jason probably brags to confessional about how he just saved himself, even though it was really Tai and Aubry’s doing.  Apart from this, though, our penultimate episode doesn’t change much.  Joe probably still wins reward, and while he may take Tai rather than Cydney with him (and even that’s not guaranteed), this does not change him eating too much meat on reward, and getting evacuated as a result.  Really, all that we can guarantee changes is that Aubry looks an even bigger fool going into the finale, noting in confessional that not voting out Jason may have been her biggest mistake, now that he’s guaranteed a spot in the final four.  

Now, there is one possible change that could shape how things go, which is the aforementioned who Joe chooses to take on reward.  Nothing really changes if he takes Cydney, and she and Aubry patch things up on reward.  If Joe is still in the mindset of “No trust with Cydney” from the last vote, though, I could see him taking Tai.  If so, this raises the possibility that Cydney, burned from the last vote, makes amends with Jason.  In the Aubry/Michele debate in our timeline, Cydney often gets left by the wayside, despite being an excellent strategist and key player in the dominant alliance.  True, she wasn’t beating either of our two heroines, given how many bridges she burned, but still, she deserves respect.  I could see her trying to worm her way back in with Jason, especially if she believed that Aubry had fully turned against her, and not just wanted to break up her bond with Michele.  Whether it would work is another matter.  Jason strikes me as the type to hold a grudge, and I’m not sure he’d be open to anything Cydney had to say.  True, you could argue he has few options, but I could see him believing he could just immunity his way to the end from here.  

All this to say that while I acknowledge another possibility is available, I suspect Cydney tries to work her way back in with Aubry, having little choice otherwise.  Fortunately for her, Jason is still considered the bigger target, and is in for a round of bad luck.  I don’t see him winning the final four immunity, given how tricky that puzzle was, meaning Tai is the most likely winner.  Sadly, we do miss out on Michele’s kicking of the puzzle, so that’s one downgrade.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Jason, without immunity, goes at final four.  Given that he’s the villain of the season, even in this timeline, there is much rejoicing from the audience.  

Of course, this leads us to the challenge at the final three.  It’s certainly possible that, unless Cydney wins, Aubry goes to the end, so I could see the season following “Survivor Cagayan” even more closely, and going for a final two here.  On the other hand, I don’t think production wants to risk even that, so we probably still have our “Juror Removal” twist and a final three there.  Fittingly, this final three is one “Brain”, one “Brawn”, and one “Beauty”, a fun bit of symmetry.  

Given how close Aubry came in that challenge, coupled with it not playing to Sydney’s strengths, I’d say Aubry is probably the winner of the challenge.  It would be easy to say she just votes Scot off the jury, since that’s what she wanted in our timeline, but in this timeline, I think she goes for Julia.  Also a person guaranteed not to vote for her, but more so than Scot in this timeline.  Scot doesn’t like anybody on this final three.  He doesn’t want to vote for any of them.  Yet, since Aubry burned him the least directly out of those left, I could see her thinking she has a shot at his vote.  And if she doesn’t, well, Julia was never going to vote for her either, so it all evens out anyway.  

Perhaps controversial these days, but I’m inclined to say that Aubry wins in this final three regardless of who she gets rid of.  She has three votes guaranteed on this jury (Neal, Nick, and Joe), and while she definitely has two votes guaranteed against her (Michele and Debbie), I think she has a chance at at least Jason’s vote.  After all, if he and Cydney didn’t mend their relationship, then we know from our timeline that Jason was rooting against Cydney, and Tai directly betrayed him on the Scot boot.  Jason may not care for Aubry, but she’s the least objectionable out of the three.  Add onto that Michele’s excellent Final Tribal performance not being there, and Aubry’s average Final Tribal performance looks a lot better.  It may only be 4-3 (depending on who our final jury member is, and how persuadable they actually are), but Aubry comes out on top here.  

THE LEGACY

Before we get into how this impacts the view of the season as a whole, let’s talk about future seasons, since really, this changes little.  While Jason and Cydney are both bigger, more respected characters, there’s not really a good chance for them to come back.  “Survivor Game Changers” is the only full returnee season since then, and I don’t see them nixing any of the Kaoh Rong players we got in our timeline.  And I don’t see them having more than four from a single season, so that is shot.  Aubry’s win doesn’t preclude her coming back, either, since winners were ok that season.  

That said, her win DOES torpedo her chances, and I’d say Aubry is maybe even first out of this season in this timeline.  One of the reasons I will defend Aubry’s game on Game Changers is that, while she never had any real power, the fact that she even MADE IT that far is impressive.  Game Changers, like “Survivor All-Stars” before it, had an anti-winner bias.  Less because “They already got money”, and more because “They’re the biggest threats.”  This justification led to Aubry being lumped in this group in our timeline, with no less than the Queen herself, Sandra Diaz-Twine, wanting her gone.  After all, the prevailing wisdom at the time was “Aubry should have won.”  Partly by good swap luck, and partly by her own guile, Aubry making it as far as she did, power or no, was nothing short of a miracle, and her game that season deserves respect.  But with an actual win under her belt?  Aubry has no chance of making it far this season.  

Of course, this does preclude her from coming back for Edge of Extinction, so she’ll need a replacement.  This would seem the place to include Cydney, but it’s only in the last year or two that Cydney has said she’s willing to return.  She’s doubtless asked, but I think she declines, for the understandable reason of her body deteriorating from the show not being good for her bodybuilding career.  My next thought for who to put in Aubry’s spot was someone cast after her to match her archetype.  Hannah Shapiro of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and Gabby Pascuzzi of “Survivor David vs. Goliath” would probably be the top candidates in that regard.  However, I ended up deciding that neither would go, as the former has stated she won’t play again, while the latter, having just come from the same filming cycle, would be unfamiliar to the fans that season.  She would basically get the same reaction from the players as Amanda on “Survivor Micronesia”, and I don’t think production wants that again.  

No, I think Aubry’s open spot here gives Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) her second shot.  While not the “nerd” archetype that Aubry has, Chrissy still gets the “offbeat choice” niche, while still being a favorite who is known to the fans.  Does this change the season drastically?  Eh, probably not.  While Chrissy might make it farther than Aubry does in our timeline, if only by virtue of actually playing an idol if she finds it, the anti-returnee sentiment on this season was too strong, and we still probably get our unsatisfying Chris win here.  The one upside is that there is no “Drive Aubry away from the fanbase by personally attacking her for a bad game decision”, meaning we have a more active online Aubry in this timeline, for which I, for one, am eternally grateful.  Seriously, fanbase, shame on you for how you acted toward her.  Agree or disagree with her, what you did is not ok.  

While Aubry’s win precludes her from appearing on Edge of Extinction, it puts her in the running for Winners at War.  Given that she’s a relatively recent, popular winner at this point, I don’t see her not coming back.  We don’t even have to speculate about who she replaces, since she just takes the spot Michele had in our timeline.  Does Aubry mimic Michele’s placement this season?  Probably not.  While I am an Aubry fan, I will admit that Michele’s game, while not as fun to watch, is overall smarter in terms of making a deep run.  Both play fantastic games that can be winning ones, but run their seasons a hundred times randomized, and Michele’s strategy wins out more often than Aubry’s.  Aubry probably goes either after the swap, depending on if she gets a bad draw, or early-ish in the merge if not.  Probably around where Adam goes in our timeline is her ceiling, just due to her threat level.  

But what of Kaoh Rong as a whole?  Well, for what I believe is the first time in the history of these blogs, we actually have a timeline change that RETROACTIVELY changes a season, or at least how it’s presented.  Specifically, Aubry’s decision at final six will FORCE the edit to highlight the Cydney/Michele bond a lot more to justify Aubry’s action, which is criticized at the time but in hindsight is seen as a brilliant move.  This paints the pair in a different light.  For want of a better term, a villainous light.  Don’t misunderstand, the pair aren’t the villains of the season; Scot and Jason claimed that title pretty definitively when they started sabotaging the camp.  But the pair are presented in a similar way to Ami on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Not bad as people, but shrewd players who are an obstacle to our underdog hero.  Thereby de-facto antagonists, if not necessarily villainous.  This is why Cydney gets elevated to a higher status in the fandom, though conversely, Michele kind of becomes a footnote.  

Of course an Aubry win makes Kaoh Rong work much better as a season, and elevates it to at least near-greatness.  I hesitate to give it full greatness, partly taking into account my pro-Aubry bias, and partly because I could see her win being seen as “predictable”, which is often a mark against a season.  The main problem with the season in our timeline is that everything in the narrative tells us that Aubry SHOULD win against anyone.  I know edgic set up Michele as the winner fairly early, but as someone who was firmly watching at the time, I can tell you the assumption was that Michele won because Aubry got eliminated before the finals.  Thus, it still felt wrong when Aubry made finals but lost anyway.  There’s a conflict between what we think SHOULD happen narratively, and what ACTUALLY happens.  An Aubry win avoids that conflict, and at least for me, makes a much better season as a whole.  

Ok, so maybe this was an excuse to give my favorite player a win.  I admit to more bias in this blog than perhaps any other.  Still, I hope the scenario has been at least semi-plausible and fun for everyone, though!  Let me know what scenarios you’d like covered in the future!  I’ll happily give credit to anyone who gives me an idea I use.  Just post it in the comments section of this blog, or wherever you happened to find this blog.  Guidelines for submissions are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, our suggestions and feedback are much appreciated.  Take care out there, everyone!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: One World

After two fairly heavy “What-If?” scenarios, I think we’re due for something a bit lighter, or at least simpler.  I suppose “light” is not the word that comes to mind when one thinks of “Survivor One World”.  Still, this will be a pretty straightforward change, at least as results go, but hopefully a fun look nonetheless.  

Before we dive into that look, however, be forewarned that there will be SPOILERS ahead.  While the new timeline can be described well enough on its own, comparisons to our own timeline are inevitable.  Thus, I cannot guarantee that no information about this season, as well as seasons that come after, will not be discussed, and potentially spoil something for you, dear reader.  Also be aware that earlier seasons will get some mention here.  Thus, discretion is advised if you don’t want potential spoilers for just about half of “Survivor” history.  Assuming you are ready, let us examine the change.  

THE IMPACT

Today we look at what I consider the dumbest move ever in “Survivor” history.  Yes, the likes of Erik Reichenbach and Brandon Hantz may have been dumb to give up their individual immunities.  Yes, J.T. should probably have thought twice about trusting Russell Hantz so implicitly.  But overall, these were one person making a dumb decision.  Not a good look, but at least only the critical failure of one individual.  How Manono, the men’s tribe, thought giving up TRIBAL immunity was a good idea remains a mystery to me.  With each of the dumb moves described above, it wasn’t GUARANTEED it would backfire on them.  Since this is tribal immunity, though, you KNOW that one of you will be going home.  And as giving up such an immunity required UNANIMOUS consent, it’s a guaranteed dumb move for at least one person, to say nothing of the overall implications for the tribe.  

So, if it had to be unanimous, what if one person pulled an early Hali Ford, and refused to consent?  What if Manono couldn’t give up immunity, simply because they couldn’t agree?  That, to me, seems worth examining.  As to how exactly it goes down, I expect Colton still whines and tries to force the tribe to go along with his plan.  Given that he led the majority alliance, and the minority not wanting to piss him off too much, I expect we still see this attempted storyline, but with one dissenter preventing it from going through.  

I suspect this dissenter would be one Bill Posley.  Apart from obviously being the guy on the chopping block in both timelines, Bill was perhaps the most vocal against Colton’s rule.  Certainly he was the guy willing to take action against Colton.  You’ll note that after the season had aired, it was mentioned that Bill, attempting to weaken Colton’s hold on the tribe, had taken his hidden immunity idol and thrown it in the ocean.  Of course, this was against the rules, so it came to nothing, but it shows a willingness to defy Colton regardless.  So, let’s say that Bill keeps that backbone, and simply refuses to let immunity go.  What then?

Naturally, the women’s Salani tribe is forced to go to Tribal Council in this timeline.  Their vote is pretty obvious, and Christina Cha goes out here.  She was on the outs with the women, and had several members, notably Alicia, vocally against her.  With the iron grip Kim had on that tribe, I don’t see that going down differently, though it is worth noting that this episode probably becomes infamous as a contender for “Worst Episode of All-Time” in this timeline.  On the surface, you just have a predictable boot from the more likable tribe, which is currently getting proverbially steamrolled.  Not a good look, but add on top of that an attempt at “drama” with Colton trying to force Manano to give up immunity, and the episode comes off like a circle jerk.  Build up this intriguing, if frustrating, story of such a dumb move, only for it to come to nothing?  Feels like a bait-and-switch.  The only way to avoid this would be to not show the men debating whether to give up immunity at all, and given the drama of this storyline, I don’t see them forgoing that particular debate.  

THE FALLOUT

Next episode brings us to the tribe swap, and with the numbers of men and women left being different than in our timeline, it’s possible things shake out in completely unknowable ways here.  If you want to look for the season to be WAY different, that’s the way to do it: Completely randomize the tribe swap here.  For the sake of simplicity, however, let’s say that Bill simply takes Christina’s placed on the swapped Manono.  Things sadly still do not go well for new Manono.  True, the challenge prowess gap is somewhat lessened by Bill’s presence on the tribe, but the fact remains that Salani still has them effectively outgunned.  And even if Manono had the capacity to win, I’m not sure they choose to in our timeline.  

Let us not mince matters: Even in our timeline, Colton did not like Bill.  Didn’t understand or agree with his lifestyle, and sadly given the way he was brought up, had certain prejudices that came into play in his interactions with Bill at the time.  Bill being the first person in the game, possibly in his entire life, to tell Colton “No” is not going to sit well with him.  I could very much see Colton convincing the rest of the tribe to throw the challenge, or at a minimum sabotage it, in order to get rid of Bill.  And make no mistake, Bill would go at this point.  Much as I want him to make a deep run, since he was who I rooted for on the season, Colton was not going to let Bill get far.  Now, however, it can be argued that Bill was just swap-screwed, rather than doing a dumb and getting himself effectively voted out, which will have ramifications down the line.  This sadly also means we still get the incredibly racist Tribal Council as well.  Possibly even more racist, given how mad Colton is at Bill’s continued presence in the game.  

This also does nothing to change Colton’s medical evacuation in the next episode.  And yes, much as we love to rag on Colton, let’s not write revisionist history to make him look even worse.  Medical did come out, and they did say Colton needed to be pulled.  You could argue as to whether Colton NEEDED to call medical or not, but Colton knows himself best, and I’m not about to argue against the medical decision of someone who was actually our there.  Colton’s exit, at least on this season, is officially a medivac.  

From there, the season largely plays out as it does in our timeline.  Whiny as Colton may have been on the screen, he was the uniting factor of the men.  We’re even in numbers come the merge once again, so under the leadership of Kim, the women take control, and utterly dominate the season.  Given that no one, man or woman, left at the merge could really comes close to her social and strategic abilities, she probably still wins handily.  So, right now you may be asking why bother talking about this change at all?  Yeah, the boot order’s a little different, but ultimately on this season, all roads lead to the same outcome.  And it’s true, this is a simpler change, but there’s one post-merge story we don’t get in our timeline that does come up here, that merits at least discussion.  A story I like to call “The Problem of Monica Culpepper”.  

You see, as in our timeline, there’s one woman who makes the merge who wasn’t ultimately part of the majority.  In our timeline, that was Christina, but since the men don’t give up immunity, she’s out much earlier here.  Instead, it’s Monica who makes the merge, and this presents an issue for Kim.  Not in the area of shoring up her alliance, of course.  Like Christina, I think Monica sees the writing on the wall, and despite not having been in the alliance initially, goes along with the “women strong” mentality to ensure that she gets as far as possible.  But now Kim has a true threat to contend with in her own alliance.  Monica, while still on the outs, is not as disliked as Christina, making her an issue.  More to the point, as we saw on “Survivor Blood vs. Water” in our timeline, Monica is actually quite good at individual challenges.  This is someone Kim DOES NOT want at the end of the game, but someone who could very easily just immunity their way to the end.  Thus, each episode, Kim must face the dilemma of whether and how to break up the alliance to get rid of this threat.  

Jumping ahead a bit in terms of discussion, this change is HUGE for this season!  Amongst the (many) problems of “Survivor One World”, one big one is that there was no real threat to Kim’s dominance of the season.  The best the show could come up with was the possibility of Troyzan getting to the end via immunity.  Not super compelling.  I mean, you knew the second he lost he was gone, and plus, the man called himself “Troyzan”.  Hard to take seriously.  True, Monica’s threat is not the most compelling either, but at least it’s not as simple as “The first time Monica doesn’t win immunity, she’s out.”, like it was for Troyzan.  Kim has to weigh the risk of keeping Monica around against the risk of fracturing her alliance too early, or in a way that puts a target on her.  There’s an element of strategic debate we didn’t get, which is very welcome in a post-merge that had very little in our timeline.  

Of course, the flaw here is that it all comes to naught.  Good as Monica may be, she’s not going to win 100% of the time.  She’ll lose eventually, and at a time when the women don’t need to worry about the numbers at that point.  I think Monica’s best hope is that the infighting caused by the likes of Alicia gets her to top 4, where she’s voted out, and the best that can be said there is she puts up more of a fight than Christina in our timeline.  It’s not much, but it’s something for this season.  

THE LEGACY

There’s really only two characters with a changed legacy here.  One is Bill, of course.  He’s now not just some guy Colton was racist toward.  Now he’s “The Man Who Stood Up to Colton”.  Probably considered the one man on the season with an actual brain, as the one who refused to go to Tribal Council when he had immunity.  Note that even in our timeline, he had an after-show hosting gig on CBS.com, before Parvati agreed to do the job, and even as someone who really likes Bill, Parvati’s always going to be the bigger draw, so of course if she says yes, Bill is gone.  I suspect production loves him even more in this timeline, one of the few good things about an overall bad season.  That said, his early exit likely takes him out of the running for Caramoan, especially since I don’t know who of the men he would replace.  He most closely fits Malcolm’s archetype, and even in this timeline, I’d say Malcolm is the bigger draw.  

No, if Bill comes back, his shot is on the “Second Chance” ballot, where he probably takes Woo’s spot.  That said, even in this timeline, I’m not sure Bill gets on.  He’s got a decent shot, but he’s going to need a MAJOR social media campaign, a la Kelley Wentworth, to make the cut.  Not so much because he himself is a bad character, but because One World is still looked on poorly, and thus everyone on it likely gets tarred with a bad brush, even the one guy who stood up to Colton.  Still, even if only a one-season wonder, Bill is remembered at least someone fondly in the “Survivor” zeitgeist, which is more than I can say for him in our timeline.  

Monica is the other person with a change in their perception.  Basically what happens here is that, with her individual challenge prowess now on display this season, she gets her reputation as a surprisingly tough competitor on this season, instead of Blood vs. Water.  She might get consideration for Caramoan because of this, probably in place of Dawn, but since I figure the show probably has the idea for Blood vs. Water already, they save her for that.  Monica is a big draw, but Brad Culpepper is considered a bigger one.  That said, this reputation might actually hurt her chances on that season.  Now, rather than being an underdog who seems like a good alliance member, she’s a challenge threat who the rest of the tribe is going to be wary of.  That’s such a big change that it’s impossible to say how Blood vs. Water turns out in this timeline, but suffice to say, Monica probably doesn’t do as well, and is remembered more for her first outing than her second.  

While not loved, One World overall gets a slightly better reputation in this timeline.  Colton’s awful behavior, and Kim steamrolling everyone, still happen, so this season is never going to be a favorite of the fanbase.  That said, Kim having some actual competition in the form of Monica, and someone actually deny Colton want he wants, are good points the season in our timeline does not have, and thus, it is slightly better thought-of.  True, unless Bill makes Cambodia, I doubt we get returnees other than the ones on Blood vs. Water, and Kim on Winners at War, but hey, something is better than nothing.  

Like I said, not a huge change, but one worth considering.  Amazing how a bit of competition for Kim can make people look on a season, or even just some people from the season, differently.  Hope you’ve enjoyed these little off-season explorations, and whether before the cast of “Survivor 43” gets officially announced, or during the next major off-season, there will be more to come.  And for that, dear readers, I would love your input.  If you have a timeline change you would like me to examine, let me know in the comments of this blog, or wherever you found it!  Credit will be given if I use someone else’s change idea.  That said, there are some guidelines if you want your change considered, and they are as follows: 

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.

As always, I look forward to seeing your ideas, and thanks as always for taking the time to listen to me ramble!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Africa

When it comes to “What-If?” scenarios in “Survivor”, Africa is something of a holy grail.  For whatever reason, people love to speculate about changes on this season.  If I were to hazard a guess why, it’s because “Survivor Africa” is sort of the perfect storm of conditions for interesting alternate scenarios.  It falls neatly in between the more emotionally driven “stick with your alliance, damn the consequences” era of the first two seasons, and the more strategic “flip if you need to” mentality we first saw brought to fruition on “Survivor Marquesas”.  A twist no one could have seen coming, that could have gone very differently if it was either anticipated or eliminated.  Lots of interpersonal grudges making it plausible to change a lot of individual outcomes.  Production gaffes that could easily have been avoided.  And, to top it all off, an extremely early placement in the overall “Survivor” timeline leading to a lot of fascinating ripple effects across the course of the show’s later seasons.  

Yet, it is for these reasons that I have not really touched upon this season in these “What-If?” blogs before now.  Honestly, I want to look at stuff that isn’t necessarily talked about as much, and “Survivor Africa”, much as I love it and agree it has lots of potential for fascinating changes, is just too talked about in this regard.  I did not believe I had anything new to say, and so left it by the wayside.  

Until today, that is!  Yes, I have finally come up with a scenario for this season that I feel is worth talking about for this season, and so we’ll be doing just that.  True, I may rehash some ground that others have already covered, but I’ve yet to see someone talk about the change I’ll be making today, and thus I feel it has some specific repercussions that give this blog a reason to exist.  That said, this is your usual warning that, by the nature of this blog, there will be SPOILERS ahead, and since this is the earliest change we’ve made in the timeline so far for one of these blogs, these spoilers will cover… Well, pretty much every season save the first two.  While I obviously won’t mention every single season, for this blog in particular, I ask that you proceed with caution, as I can’t guarantee I won’t be spoiling how this or a future season goes in our timeline.  Now that you have been sufficiently warned, let us dive right in.  

THE IMPACT

It’s the merge of “Survivor Africa”.  The Moto Maji tribe is newly formed, and two names are on everyone’s lips.  Frank, of Samburu, due to just not fitting in and being in the minority.  And Clarence, of Boran.  Despite technically coming from the tribe with the numbers, Clarence is not well liked by the majority alliance within Boran, and is a threat in terms of challenges now the game is individual.  Thus, when the challenge comes down to a battle between Clarence and Teresa “T-Bird” Cooper, pretty much everyone is rooting for T-Bird.  Everyone gets their wish in our timeline, as Clarence ultimately steps down for a literal chicken dinner.  

But what if he didn’t?  Now, you might say that even if he didn’t succumb to temptation, T-Bird is tough, and might have just beat him outright.  Recall, however, that Clarence did not just step down of his own accord.  He and T-Bird, having gone over 6 hours in a tough challenge, agreed to end it so one of them could eat, doing rock, paper, scissors to decide who gets immunity and who steps down.  That’s the type of random game that falls squarely in the “What-If?” category, and is the change we’ll make today.  T-Bird won the game of rock, paper, scissors in our timeline, but no more!  In this scenario, one or the other of them changes to “scissors”.  It doesn’t really matter who, as so long as the outcome doesn’t tie, the effect remains the same.  

What are those effects, you may ask?  Well, the most obvious one is that Clarence wins immunity (I expect T-Bird would honor the rock, paper, scissors agreement).  A bit of a problem for Boran since, as our timeline demonstrated, he was their number one target.  Thus, there is the need to switch, and as foreshadowed a couple of paragraphs ago, I think that target lands on Frank.  With the person most on the outs of Boran immune, and the Kelly/Lex feud not having heated up (yet), one of Samburu has to go.  Even at the challenge, Kelly and Kim J. talk about not wanting him on the jury for reported misogyny, and assuming he does his “loner” thing during the merge mixer, no one’s probably going to object too strongly.  

The other thing this affects, though, is Lex.  Lex, if you’ll recall, goes paranoid in the following episode, since he gets a couple of stray votes.  Clarence, since he had a chip on his shoulder, and T-Bird, who felt like she couldn’t vote for him after he stepped off for immunity.  Here, Clarence has less of a reason to be angry, since he’s not as explicitly targeted given his immunity, and T-Bird thus has little incentive to throw her vote.  I suspect she, along with Brandon, Kim P., and the rest of Boran, all line up against Frank and send him home 9-1.  Frank may, admittedly, vote for Lex, but who knows?  Even if he does, Lex probably brushes it off since Frank is gone, as he did with Clarence’s vote in our timeline.  But does this mean a calmer Lex, and a more unified Boran going deeper into the merge?  Not so fast…

THE FALLOUT

Say what you will about Lex, but he’s nothing if not consistent.  And one consistency that continually torpedos his chances in the game is his getting… Let’s say “hyper-fixated” when something doesn’t go his way.  He will chew at that proverbial bone over and over again until he either gets things the way he wants them to go, or he gets voted out.  His need to “smoke out the snake”, as we saw in the equivalent episode in our timeline is a prime example of this.  You might think, without the stray votes, he’ll have nothing to fixate on, but I don’t think this’ll be the case.  With how insistent Lex was on getting out Clarence at the merge vote, I think Clarence’s continued existence is the game is really going to stick in Lex’s craw.  It won’t cause him to turn on his main alliance per se, but I also think he won’t be able to stop talking about how worried and frustrated he is because of Clarence.  This, in turn, will get on the nerves of one Kelly Goldsmith.  Already not his biggest fan, given that she, as she said in our timeline, has come to like Clarence, is probably going to still have a feud with Lex, just started by her instead of him.  Couple that with Clarence likely wanting to flip to Samburu anyway, and you’ve got a divided vote very similar to the one we know about today.  

The difference, of course, is in outcome.  In our timeline, since Brandon did not wish to ally with Frank, he flipped and voted with Boran.  Here, with Frank already gone, I expect that Brandon sticks with Samburu, largely thanks to his alliance with Kim P.  Thus, the three remaining Samburu, plus Kelly and Clarence, band together to vote out Lex.  Mostly because he was annoying Kelly.  

From there, the season likely goes as one would predict.  Ethan, Big Tom, and Kim J. are picked off, presumably in that order.  All of our timeline’s final four are gone before the final 5.  Samburu, despite the rocky start, now technically has the numbers.  And, perhaps worst of all, we miss out on the hilarity that is Brandon and Frank’s movie date at the final 8.  

All this, of course, raises the problem of Clarence.  It wasn’t just early social gaffes that put Clarence on the outs of his original tribe.  He was considered a challenge beast, and so people didn’t want him making it deep into the game.  I doubt the new Samburu majority wants that either, but Clarence, for them, is a necessary evil, as without him, no numbers advantage.  As such, Clarence is still around at the Final 5, where I’m willing to bet he ends up with immunity given how physical that challenge was.  This puts Brandon and Kim P. in the swing positions between voting off Kelly, who helped give them the numbers, and who they bonded with at post-swap Samburu, or voting off T-Bird, who was on their original tribe.  I could honestly see this go either way, but personally, I’d bet on Kelly being the one to get the boot here.  The meta at the time was to stick with your original tribe, damn the consequences.  Kelly would be the first person to break that mold, but since it would be such an original idea, I doubt Brandon and Kim P. would be willing to follow suit.  Better to stick with your original tribe.  

Thankfully for the alliance, worries about Clarence going on an immunity run likely come to naught.  I don’t see him winning the “Fallen Comrades” challenge at the Final Four given his general “social outcast” status, and so he’s out at this point.  Speaking of which, while the production gaffe regarding the “no piercings” question still happens, it’s more likely that it’s not the one-point difference that leads to the target getting immunity, and so is less controversial, though we’ll talk more about that in the next section.  Thus, our final three is pure Samburu, despite this being the first non-Pagonging (at least in the purest sense) in the show’s (admittedly short) history at this point in time.  

Given that our final immunity challenge is pure endurance, I’d be willing to bet T-Bird wins it, since she easily outperformed both Kim P. and Brandon in the merge immunity challenge requiring a similar skill set.  Then, at this point, the story of the season is written.  Who T-Bird chooses to take to the end is largely irrelevant, as she wins either way.  I doubt it’s unanimous (if she votes out Brandon, he for sure votes Kim P. in the end, and vice versa.  I’d also say Clarence and Kelly would be up-in-the-air votes), but T-Bird is getting, at worst, four votes from this jury, which is all she needs.  If you must know, I suspect T-Bird votes out Brandon at the final three, believing she would win either way, and liking Kim P. more, but again, overall irrelevant to the ultimate outcome.  Yep, if rumors are to be believed, production did some last-minute trickery pre-season to handicap T-Bird, and she still somehow wins in this timeline.  What.  A.  Player.  

THE LEGACY

Of course, with a season this far back in the timeline, naturally the changes it makes are enormous in their proportion.  Oddly, the first change happens, not to a returnee season, but to “Survivor Marquesas”.  Not that production does anything different, although I suppose it’s possible that they sour on tribe swaps after it does little to stop Samburu domination of the season in the end.  No, what certainly changes about Marquesas is how it’s received.  Generally, the thoughts about Marquesas boil down to “Not the most interesting characters make it deep, but still a strategically important season.”  Now, Marquesas does not even get that distinction.  Africa now takes over that title as “First Totem Pole Shakeup”, and Marquesas, without even that distinction, gets relegated to the “Forgotten Pile” of seasons, save for Probst still loving Boston Rob and bringing him back multiple times.  Kathy still probably gets her love and return as well, but the season as a whole?  Pushed by the wayside.  

Not to say that Africa is looked on fondly as a season.  It does give us the first Totem Pole Shakeup, and the winner, while not as beloved as Ethan in our timeline, is more palatable than one of the “Mallrats” winning the game.  That said, the criticisms of lackluster personalities due to dehydration that we see in our timeline remain, and it’s again a case of “the villains win”, which the public was getting tired of at this point in the show’s history.  Africa is considered an important season, but liked?  At best, it’s looked on somewhat fondly by die-hard fans, but most of the public dismisses it as a neutral-to-bad season.  After all, part of the reason the “Totem Pole Shakeup” was considered ok on Marquesas was because it went in the favor of the relative “heroes” of the season.  On Africa, in this timeline, it benefits the relative “villains”, and is thus looked on much less fondly.  

This brings us to our first returnee season, “Survivor All-Stars”.  Without the production gaffe leading to reported promised slots on this season, Africa’s returnees change drastically.  Lex probably still comes back, since his single-minded fixation against Clarence made him a big enough character to merit a return.  I would also suspect him of giving a good vitriolic jury speech a la Sue Hawk at the end, thus cementing his status.  From here, though, it’s return of the “Villains”.  Kelly Goldsmith is brought back, probably taking Amber’s spot, as one of the big villainesses of the show.  She invented the idea of flipping at this timeline, and there’s no way “Survivor” doesn’t bring that back.  This, of course, means the Boston Rob/Amber relationship either doesn’t form, or does so off the show, making the pair of them much less of a big deal, and we probably never see an Amber return period.  

Then there’s also the issue of Clarence, who due to lasting longer, is a bigger character than in our timeline.  While not loved, he’s humorous enough, and gets enough of a reaction out of Lex that I suspect production wants him back just for that.  It’s like Francesca being asked back for “Survivor Caramoan” because Phillip was asked back.  On their own?  Might not merit a spot.  Against their arch-nemesis?  You bet!  I suppose I should mention here that Clarence’s deep run despite his lackluster social standing leads to a lot of bias against the more physically strong players, since while he doesn’t win, Clarence shows that you can still come close if you’re good enough in challenges.  As such, expect most seasons immediately following Africa to be a poor environment for the more physical players.  

All this leaves open one slot for a man on All-Stars, since while Africa also got three returnees in our timeline, they were all men, whereas here we have Kelly.  As to who gets that spot, I would say the top contenders are Jonny Fairplay (if production wants to go for the biggest character they hadn’t brought back) and Sean Rector (if production wants someone who was more of a “hero” than Fairplay, though admitted at that point in time, “more heroic than Fairplay” would mean any man who wasn’t Richard Hatch or Brian Heidik), and it could be either one of them.  

Why no T-Bird on All-Stars, you may ask?  I feel like production would see her and Tina as occupying the same character type, and since Australia is much more beloved than Africa in this timeline (probably even more so overall than in our own), when Tina says “Yes”, T-Bird is off the table.  Not that T-Bird doesn’t get her chance.  With Micronesia likely being completely unchanged in this timeline, I would say that her shot comes in Heroes vs. Villains, where she takes the slot of someone on the Heroes Tribe, probably Candace.  In turn, now that Kelly is one of the unquestioned uber-villains of “Survivor”, she’s brought back on the Villains tribe, probably in Danielle’s spot.  As you might expect, the whole outcome of that season gets changed as a result, as the Heroes have someone with more brain power and less likely to flip.  Additionally, I don’t see Kelly and Russell Hantz getting along, so Russell probably never comes to power, and at that point you can kiss everything you know about the post-merge of that season goodbye.  Heck, Kelly might actually win that one.  That could be a fun thing to see.  

Beyond Heroes vs. Villains, I would say most of the heyday of Africa getting returnees is past, so not much to discuss in terms of possible returns.  I could see maybe someone like Ethan, Kim P., or Big Tom being up for the “Second Chance” vote, but like with T-Bird in our timeline, I don’t see them succeeding (*sob*).  About the only possibility I see is T-Bird taking Amber’s spot on Winners at War (and certainly someone has to, since Amber never returns in this timeline), which would, admittedly, make the season better, but ultimately, not as huge an impact on seasons post-Heroes vs. Villains.  

But this assumes that the show in this timeline continues on as long in this timeline as it does in ours, which I do not think is a guarantee.  While seasons post-Australia were, in our timeline, looked on less fondly, the only real clunker of a season was Thailand due to “grind gate”.  Africa and Marquesas may not be the most beloved seasons, but in our timeline, Africa gave us a pretty much universally loved winner, and Marquesas was strategically important for the show.  Here, we have no truly loved winner (T-Bird still comes closest, but she’s not on the level of Ethan), and one season that is strategically important, followed by two snooze-fests, and even then, the strategically important season led to the boots of those we were rooting for. 

All this is to say that I think people underestimate the impact Ethan had on the show, and how much he contributes to its longevity.  He kept people invested, gave them hope that the “nice guy” might actually win once in a while.  Without that we have three seasons that don’t live up to the hype of the first couple.  If, by some miracle, “Survivor” makes it to All-Stars, I could easily see that being the franchise killer, and most of the history we know just doesn’t exist.  And so, much as I was rooting for Brandon this season, I have to admit that his earlier exit is kind of better for the show’s timeline, since it contributes to the “Survivor” we know and love today.  

Or maybe the show is still cheap enough it continues on, what do I know?  Anyway, I hope this has been an enjoyable exploration that’s different enough from other changes to Africa to justify it’s existence.  The cast for “Survivor 43” should hopefully be released soon-ish at the time of this writing, but until then, I shall continue with the off-season content.  And you’ve got a say in it!  I’m always looking for new “What-If?” scenarios to write about, so feel free to leave your ideas in the comments of this blog, or wherever you were linked to it.  I will be sure to give credit if I use someone else’s scenario.  Guidelines for what I’ll consider are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Island of the Idols.  

As always, I look forward to seeing your submissions, and will see you back here for the next scenario!

-Matt