Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Finale: Tubthumping

Yeah, yeah, I know.  Two music references for a title in a row.  But so help me, it was too tempting to resist!  Owen all but directly says “I get knocked down, but I get up again.  You’re never gonna keep me down.” this episode.  Plus, I could point out that pop and show tunes are completely different genres, but that’s just splitting hairs, and not entirely accurate anyway.  Though I’ll agree it IS a little weird that Owen has twice in a row inspired music-based titles.  Wonder what his stance on show tunes is?

Starting off our episode proper, we dive almost immediately to a flashback from the last episode.  Normally I’d begrudge these, but this one I’ll let pass.  Partly because it’s letting us relive an abridged version of Jesse’s move to get out Cody, which is always fun, and partly because it at least ATTEMPTS to give us some context as to how Jesse got Cody to give him the idol back.  Granted, by the show’s logic, it comes down to “I was close with Cody” from Jesse’s point, but it’s something.  Yes, I’m aware that exit interviews make it clear that Jesse concocted a rumor of a third “Knowledge is Power”, which makes a lot more sense.  As I have said before, and will say again, though, I should not have to consult supplemental materials to understand what his happening on the show.  

Remember back in the old days?  When Probst would have to justify at the top of the episode why anyone left could win?  And how cringe that was for the people without an obvious narrative?  Yeah, they kind of bring that back here, and it REALLY doesn’t work.  Granted, it works better than the other times, since this is the PLAYERS making their case, and thus they come across more genuine.  But still, we know some of these people have realistically no chance.  I get that it’s the editor’s job to try and hide it, but sometimes there’s just nothing you can do.  

Still, at least most players have a realistic view of where they are.  Owen admits he’s an underdog.  Gabler talks about laying low until the time is right.  Jesse comments on his big move making his game a visible, winning one, but also making him a threat.  Karla comments on how she’s in trouble and a threat, but acknowledges her determination.  Cassidy talks about always being the alternate, yet usually turning the target around to get votes on her side.  If I were to nitpick, the only real flub is Cassidy saying she has a perfect voting record, when she voted for Ryan at the Jeanine boot, but even that’s splitting hairs.  With the number of split votes these days, I don’t think a “perfect voting record” matters quite as much as the fanbase seems to think it does.  

You may recall that, like with the past two seasons, our final five have to go to a new campsite.  This honestly brings nothing new to the table, and needs to just be dropped, but Gabler will be damned if he doesn’t shill for it.  He goes on at length about how tough it is, and how he needs to find gas in the tank to go forward.  Again, he’s doing his job, but just not buying it.  The only thing of value this new camp brought is a cool-looking Tree Mail.  

Said Tree Mail brings news of, you guessed it, a word scramble to find a clue to the location of an advantage.  Because it’s not like we’ve seen THAT before in the past two seasons.  Everyone wants to make sure Karla doesn’t get it, so naturally, Karla is the first to finish her word scramble.  Her ankle hobbles her, though, and Owen is right on her tail.  this honestly may be the most pathetic performance we’ve seen out of this challenge yet, as these are the only two to finish the word scramble.  That said, Owen misses the “knot” part of the clue indicating a dead tree, though even then, it’s a close race.  Both get to the tree at roughly the same time, Owen maybe even slightly ahead, but Karla searches the correct part of the tree first, finding that she has an advantage at the next challenge.  

Owen takes this well.  And by that I mean he shows that he might benefit from some anger management classes.  Ok, ok, I exaggerate.  He takes it fine, but his anger is still clearly visible.  He chops at a coconut like he’s Rupert on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and the coconut is Jonny Fairplay’s head.  

Our challenge itself is your standard “Obstacle Course Leading to Word Puzzle”, literally nothing worth writing about more than this sentence.  Karla’s advantage is that she gets to skip carrying some of her puzzle pieces over a balance beam, one of the legs of the challenge.  A pretty decent advantage, were the puzzle easier.  As it stands, it mostly just gives Karla some wiggle room, given that this is a very physical challenge, and as she notes, she’s a bit beaten up by this game.  That said, Probst tells her it’s in “How she uses it.”  Um, Probst?  It’s not like Karla has any choice or agency in this advantage.  She gets an edge, but the challenge still comes down to skill.  She doesn’t have a way TO use the advantage, other than the one you provide.  

Still, despite these injuries, Karla performs admirably, advantage or not.  Yes, everyone makes it to the puzzle, but she’s right there with Owen, the most physically fit player left, the entire time, and the challenge is presented as another word battle between the pair of them.  Fittingly, given his earlier frustration, Owen manages to eke out a victory this time.  He also gets a trip to have some good food, choosing to take Cassidy along with him.  Not a bad choice if you want to strategize, though given that you can bet Karla and Cassidy would not talk strategy if left alone together, I would say Gabler might have been a slightly wiser choice.  

It seems Owen wanted to talk strategy with Cassidy in particular, and they engage in the great Jesse vs. Karla debate.  As Jesse noted earlier, the one downside to his Cody blindside last episode is that it made him a visible threat.  Something he needs to be able to argue for a win in the end, but also something that makes people not want to take him to the end.  Karla may be the more long-term threat in terms of her game having been recognized, but Jesse is the rising star, and Owen wants him gone.  Cassidy still has a chip on her shoulder with Karla, though her main argument for why is that with Karla gone, she, Cassidy, retroactively gets credit for moves the pair of them made earlier.  Why this argument is persuasive to Owen, I can’t say, but Owen also has reason to be afraid of Karla, and so they agree to leave Jesse for the next vote.  

That said, part of their justification is that Jesse is easier to beat in challenges than Karla, and the numbers do bear that out.  I just find it hilarious that Jesse’s challenge performance is so pathetic that the woman with MULTIPLE INJURIES is considered more threatening in physical competition than he is.  

Back at camp, our remaining three are also discussing their possibilities.  Karla is pitching hard for a Cassidy boot because, really, what else can she do at this point?  Owen’s immune, and it’s not like going for Jesse or Gabler will be easy with one of them always around.  Jesse at least entertains the idea, since it might help keep the target off his back for another round.  Plus, if Karla is a challenge threat, then the healthier Cassidy is as well.  Gabler is less convinced, wanting to take out a big threat.  

Gabler may have his chance, though, as Karla is really doing this to get out Jesse.  Sort of the same play Cody tried on her as well.  Once everyone else is back, Karla pitches this plan, which Gabler is somewhat more on board with than a Cassidy boot.  Really, Karla does an overall good job here.  She makes a logical argument, hypes up Jesse’s threat level to be above her own.  For all her bad acting, she has a really good pitch.  Owen and Gabler seem to at least be considering it.  Only Cassidy is not swayed, mostly due to the beef the two have had over the past couple episodes, but even then, I think she goes a bit far in saying Karla handled things poorly.  Yeah, Karla kind of threw everything at the wall when talking to Cassidy, hoping for something to stick.  Cassidy says as much herself.  But when you’re target number one, hey, what have you got to lose?  It may seem like I’m damning Karla with faint praise, but even if it was 11 years ago, I still remember “Survivor Redemption Island”, and the frustration of people sitting around, not calling out the obvious.  I will take blunt yet sensible play any day.  

The editors are doing their best to misdirect us, but the overall point is moot.  We, the audience, know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol, and so there’s no way he goes.  Really, Jesse has the power tonight, so the best we can hope for is that he considers voting out Cassidy.  That he does, but it still doesn’t come across as plausible.  Kudos to the editors for trying their best.  I’d say they made this vote about as tense as it could possibly be.  Sometimes, though, there’s just nothing you can do.  

A Live Tribal is a good attempt, though.  After Karla does the sensible thing and hype up Jesse’s threat level some more, Jesse decides to put any doubt about his safety to rest.  He had talked earlier about wanting to use the idol to put him in the best possible position, and that he does by pulling it early to create chaos.  This, naturally, gets a huge reaction from the jury, with Jeanine in particular giving a “shocked” face to rival that of Eliza Orlins (“Survivor Vanuatu”).  But, with a possible big target gone, everyone starts getting up in twos and threes to talk about new targets.  Jesse is willing to go Cassidy, but will need Gabler on board.  We don’t here his reaction, and we go to vote.  

Jesse sensibly plays his idol on himself, leading to an anticlimactic 4-1 boot for Karla.  Yeah, like I said, I can’t blame the editors too much on this one.  They worked with what they had, but it was painfully obvious Karla was going.  Sad, too.  In case it wasn’t obvious from this blog as a whole doing little else but praising Karla this season, you can tell this was going to be a sad one.  Messy, if understandable, plays in the last few episodes definitely make this vote-out EARNED, but I loved her spunk and determination.  She was the type of person you don’t see as often on the show, and it was great to have her.  Karla for Second Chances, y’all!

With no drama from the vote, we cut straight to Final Immunity.  This is the “Maneuver Pots through a Wire Frame, Then Stack Them” challenge first seen on “Survivor One World”, with this iteration less a time trial, and more a “First to 15 Pots Wins”.  Not a bad challenge, and at least one we haven’t seen in a while.  Still, I’m a traditionalist.  Give me pure endurance any day.  

High winds are a major factor here, making stability in your pot tower paramount.  Jesse is naturally out of the running, because this is, well, a challenge, but the other three are all pretty even.  Gabler is actually ahead for a good chunk, but lacks a solid foundation.  In the end, Owen loses his stack, and Cassidy wins, only to have her stack fall seconds after the challenge was called.  Good for her.  

With his threat level so high, it’s public knowledge that Jesse will be going to fire making.  The show TRIES to fake us out by having Jesse play to Cassidy, saying she needs to beat him in fire to have a shot, when really he just wants to go up against the worst fire-maker out there.  So transparent is this play that Cassidy doesn’t even pretend to buy it.  

So open is the knowledge that Jesse will go that both Owen and Gabler advocate for the opportunity to best Jesse, each believing that they are the superior fire-maker, and each wanting to bolster their resume as having “Taken Out” the biggest threat of the season.  Here is an ACTUAL debate for Cassidy, but on the whole, I would say sending Gabler is the better move.  Yeah, yeah, I know what we’re going to see soon, but these were my thoughts at the time.  Gabler’s game resume might be stronger, and thus gaining more clout from besting Jesse more of a threat, but there’s no indication the jury gives Gabler any credit for his moves.  His most visible moves are messy ones, and the jury also clearly likes Owen.  They were certainly happy he, of all people, won the immunity before this.  Thus, Gabler seems to have the weakest case in the eyes of the jury, and thus better to send him.  

After another nothingburger of a Tribal Council, Cassidy does the smart thing, and sends Gabler to fire against Jesse.  We have a really intense competition.  Becky vs. Sundra on “Survivor Cook Islands” this is not.  Both start fire quickly, but Gabler has clearly had more overall practice than Jesse.  Thus, Gabler beats the previous record for winning the challenge (previously held by Chris Underwood on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”) by about a minute.  Impressive.  

Yes, Jesse.  The seeming frontrunner of the season.  Out against people who were at best under edited, and at worst made to look foolish at every opportunity.  And people say the ending of this season is unsatisfying why?

In case it wasn’t clear, I am VERY sorry to see Jesse go, and schmaltzy as it may be, I would say it’s deserved.  Do we need to KEEP hearing about Jesse’s backstory?  Probably not.  Doesn’t change how much the dude has overcome, both in life and the game, and the crazy moves he made, particularly towards the end of the game.  Yes, a Jesse win would have been predictable, but it would have felt earned, which would be a big plus.  Like Karla, I look forward to seeing Jesse on another Second Chance season.  

Our final day breakfast is thankfully overlayed by one thing I’m very happy returned from last season: The Jury Speaks.  Yes, rather than just hear the finalists talk about what they plan to do (which is basically all of them reiterating their talking points from the top of the episode, though again they show good self-knowledge here), we hear from the jury what THEY want to hear from each player.  It’s pretty much what you’d expect.  Owen needs to articulate how he survived despite being the underdog, Gabler needs to own his age and his “playing the middle game”, and Cassidy needs to articulate specifically how she got the target off her in several instances.  

Predictably, we still have the new jury format first introduced on “Survivor Game Changers”.  Equally predictably, I still hate it.  Probst is less insistent on the “game categories” thing, merely mentioning them rather than directing the conversation about what they should be considering, but it’s still too much production interference at the end, and the lack of individual moments make everything less memorable.  

One’s Final Tribal performance may not be enough to sway votes your way, but can certainly lose them.  Such is the case for Owen, who going in seemed to have at least Noelle on his side.  However, he spends most of his time emphasizing how he was on the back foot, and never really had any agency in his game.  Granted, he shouldn’t IGNORE this, lest the jury believe he has no self-awareness, but no need to overemphasize it.  Plus, Owen needed to talk about what he did to SAVE himself as the underdog, not just talk about his general underdog-ness.  

More even are the performances of Cassidy and Gabler.  Gabler is the more engaging of the two, making the jokes and getting the jury to laugh.  He even breaks out the “Alli-Gabler” line once again.  But Cassidy, I feel, articulates her game better.  Gabler does ok, acknowledging that he played the middle, but badly flubs a question about who his tight alliance was with.  Rather than admit he played the middle, or say Owen or someone, Gabler says he was tight with people on the jury, a blatant lie evidence by the fact that Gabler helped put those people on the jury.  Cassidy has her own gaffe, since the jury doesn’t feel she deserves credit for eliminating Ryan, which she feels she does.  Plus, Cassidy managed to point out that she was the last woman standing on a season that favored voting out women early, without sounding too judgmental, which is a tricky task.  She does it well, though.  

Sure enough, we see no Owen votes, meaning he gets shut out.  And given those Final Tribal Council performances, the votes is 8-1… For Gabler…

Ok, we need to talk about this ending, because this is a problem.  First off, kudos to Gabler, though.  He is, as he notes, the second-oldest winner ever, which is no small feat, and should be celebrated.  And as I mentioned last blog, it’s not like Gabler has NO resume to stand on.  That said, the problem is that what was emphasized on his end was messy gameplay, particularly at the first Tribal Council and the merge vote.  His gameplay, while not spectacular or flashy from then on, was solid.  But, in the eyes of the audience, Gabler is kind of a joke  A wild and crazy player.  Someone who is fun to watch, but not to be taken seriously.  As a consequence, it’s hard to take a win from him seriously, especially when the likes of Karla and Jesse are still around in the last episode.  Even Cassidy, under edited as she was, seemed to have more game sense, and therefore make more sense as a winner.  

Now, to be fair to the editors, there’s little they could do about this.  Those gaffes, while making Gabler look bad, are plot-crucial to their episodes, with no easy way to edit them out.  Fair enough.  But then you need to compensate for that.  When asked, the jury said Gabler was charming and articulate, which led to most of them voting for him.  And if so, great!  Makes perfect sense!  But we didn’t SEE that Gabler!  We saw the wild and crazy Gabler, with the only hints to anything more being his vague talk about “Hiding in Plain Sight”.  Again, nice editing trick, but only hints that Gabler WILL win, not WHY.  

I will not deny that this definitely drags the season down, but I wouldn’t quite call it a season-ruiner.  Gabler was at least likable (political views outside the game aside), and this season was not spectacular to begin with.  While confusing, there’s nothing here that’s PAINFUL to watch, so that keeps it out of the very bottom for me.  Still, a lack of big, memorable characters and moments overall (the Cody blindside notwithstanding) mean this season won’t stand out, and a seemingly random winner does it few favors.  It’s a problem of modern “Survivor”… But I’ll talk about that more in an upcoming off-season blog.  

Speaking of blandness, the “reunion”.  Look, I enjoy the show being a bit positive.  I don’t need drama every minute, or over-the-top villains.  But when the ENTIRE reunion show is just about empowerment, it gets old.  Yeah, ok, Gabler giving the money to a charity for veterans is nice.  But did we need Jesse’s backstory again?  Talking about how Noelle and Karla overcame their injuries to compete well?  It’s just too much, and makes me miss the old reunions, awkward audience interviews and all.  

Speaking of which, let’s briefly touch on the preview for next season.  Sort of a hybrid of the preview for this season and older ones.  We once again mostly focus on the new players talking, getting something of a feel for the cast, but in a REALLY old throwback, Probst talks about the harshness of the elements once again.  We see why momentarily, as we get Probst calling in medical at a challenge, implying an early medevac.  Kind of similar to the preview of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, which on the one hand was not a good preview.  On the other hand, “Survivor Kaoh Rong” turned out pretty good in the end, so I’ll hold out hope that “Survivor 44” can be good too.  It’s certainly got a low bar to clear from its immediate predecessor.  

One thing I will say I am loving about “Survivor 44” already is the aesthetic.  They’re going medieval on our ass, which, admittedly, makes almost no sense for a show set in Fiji.  Then again, after three seasons in a row that aesthetically blend together, I will take something that is distinctive if out of place.  I think my two favorites are the dragon snuffer (badass), and the giant spike ball crashing through the logo, which is just my type of over-the-top.  

Now, on to the Idol Speculation tradition of looking back on my cast assessment for this season, and seeing how wrong I was!

Nneka: Overall wrong, though that’ll happen with a LOT of Vesi.  I was really too high on their challenge performance.  I DID say she’d be in trouble if she cost them a challenge, so I had SOMETHING of a decent read on Nneka, but at the end of the day, still overall wrong.  

Noelle: Actually right.  Unremarkable yet threatening player taken out in the mid-merge area.  I’ll take that victory.  

Owen: Wrong.  Had less agency than I thought, but also lasted longer as well.  

Justine: Wrong, though again, that was mostly predicated on the assumption that Vesi would be the dominant tribe of the season.  

Cody: Wrong.  Smarter than I gave him credit for, as well as more entertaining.  Consequently, he lasted longer than I predicted.  

Morriah: She wasn’t my first boot pick, but I did have her pegged as a pre-merger.  I’ll give myself at least partial credit here.  

Sami: Wrong.  Much better at the game than anticipated, and lasted slightly longer than I predicted.  

Karla: Pretty much right, since her tribe didn’t lose as much as I thought they might.  

Ryan: Out earlier than I expected, though I nailed his personality.  

Lindsay: I’ll give myself this one, even if she wasn’t the first boot of the season.  She still went at the first available opportunity, so even if I didn’t read her tribe correctly, I did read her correctly.  

Jeanine: Wrong.  Better (slightly) at the game than I anticipated, and lasted slightly longer too.  

Jesse: So close to being right!  Dude just made himself too big of a threat to give me three correct winner picks in a row.  

Cassidy: Wrong.  By no means annoying, and had a lot more game than I anticipated.  

James: Another one where there’s not much to say, since I just about nailed him.  

Geo: Wrong.  Too much of a challenge sink to make the merge like I thought he would.

Elie: Again I lament: Why must psychologists on this show not named Denise Stapely suck at the game?  Another one I was wrong on.  

Dwight: Wrong.  Worse at the game than I thought, and consequently did not make it deep.  

Mike: Wrong.  No way would I have called this dude winning that early.  

And there you have it.  Weird as this season may be, I hope you have enjoyed my recaps.  Be on the lookout for the rare short off-season content before we discuss the cast of “Survivor 44”.  I’ve got some ideas cooking I think you’ll all enjoy reading/debating.  

As a final note before we go, you may have noticed the liberal sprinkling of “Ancient Voices”, the old theme song for the show, throughout the season.  This finale in particular made liberal use of them.  As an avowed fan of the theme, you may think this makes me happy.  It does not.  Don’t just tease us.  Bring back the full theme, you CBS cowards!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 12: The Book of Sandra

Hello/My name is Diaz-Twine/And I would like to share with you the most amazing book/You snake mother$#%&*!

Yeah, I know the one throwaway comment at Tribal Council has little to do with the episode proper, but I saw an opportunity for a show tunes reference/parody, and it just wouldn’t be “Idol Speculation” if I didn’t seize that opportunity.  

As to the episode proper, given that we had a united vote this past episode, no one has any need to be debriefed.  Instead, they celebrate making it to the top third of the game, watching the sunrise together.  Owen can even be happy he was on the right side of the vote for once!  Being Owen, though, he still finds a way things didn’t go as planned.  Specifically, Sami announcing his Shot in the Dark play spooked Karla enough to vote for him, thus preventing the desired wedge between her and Cassidy.  Owen, however, seeks to fix this, and informs Cassidy of Karla’s intentions.  

Cassidy, being a logical player, does not buy Owen’s story on its face (after all, he’s saying her number one ally turned on her for what seems no reason in her mind), but feels like it’s something she should check out just to be safe.  As such, she confronts Karla on the beach.  The best I can say for Karla here is that she SAYS the right things.  Points out how they’ve been working together from the beginning.  How Owen has every reason to try and split them up.  And when Cassidy says she was hurt, Karla turns the hurt accusation back on Cassidy.  The flaw for Karla, which will be consistent for her throughout the episode, is that her delivery stinks.  She says she’s turning on a “Telenovela” giving us our episode title, and certainly acts like it.  The acting is hammy and over-the-top, such that her story seems much less believable.  I will admit, however, the music is spot on, turning into exactly the sort of hammy soundtrack you would expect from such a scene.  

Still, since as mentioned before, Cassidy should be inclined to believe Karla, she seems to be in the clear.  Her mistake, however, comes when Karla tells Cassidy to ask Jesse if she (Karla) turned on her.  Now, in Karla’s mind, this makes sense.  She and Jesse have been shown to be tight, and so he’s the best person left to back her up, especially since she has the chance to tip him off beforehand.  The flaw in the plan is that Jesse does not truly have her back, and thus tells Cassidy everything.  Now Cassidy and Karla are at each other’s throats, giving us all the scene we were promised in the preview within the first five minutes of the episode.  

Rather than having challenges combined from elements of those in the past, we get straight-up reused challenges this episode.  Weirdly refreshing in its own way.  Our Reward Challenge is a team one (ugh) where two blindfolded players maneuver a ball through a series of obstacles, guided by a third person who has the handicap of riding IN said ball.  You may remember this as the challenge where Russell Swan almost died in “Survivor Samoa”, because heaven knows no one remembers it from when it was on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  A fun enough challenge in its own right, and certainly one that we haven’t seen in a while.  However, I will continue to die on the hills of “No team challenges post-merge.” and “Give us original challenges whenever possible.”

Our blue team consists of a blindfolded Karla and Cody, guided by Owen, while our red team has a blindfolded Gabler and Jesse, guided by Cassidy.  For once, teams that are not evenly stacked.  Blue team is clearly superior.  Sure enough, they win, though a poor performance by them on the table maze at the end of the challenge, coupled with some good editing, make the challenge feel close nonetheless.  

The winning threesome go off to enjoy coffee and pastries.  As this is not a particularly exciting reward, strategy talk begins.  Recognizing that she is the biggest threat, and likely to be targeted, Karla turns up the ham, and the editors turn up the music once again.  Look, spoiling my overall thoughts, this is a GREAT episode, easily a contender for best of the season, but the music deserves special attention.  We get some fun new tracks, both here and at the vote-out, and the editors use them at just the right times with just the right tones.  Props to them! 

Getting back to Karla’s performance, she tries to sell herself as being unfairly persecuted, and denies having the idol.  She then leaves to Owen and Cody can compare notes.  Despite the performance not living up to standards, both buy it.  Now Owen, I can understand.  Doubtless intelligent in real life, the man has had his finger firmly off the pulse of what’s going on for most of this game.  But Cody is supposed to be the super-salesman, who can read and manipulate people without breaking a sweat!  Yet, he firmly believes as well that Karla does not have an idol.  What happened here, man?

Unfortunately for Karla, even when she wins, she loses.  While Owen and Cody believe her, they also take this as a free opportunity to vote her out.  Man, Karla.  I like you.  I really do.  I find your gameplay fun, and for the most part at least competent.  But you’ve been slipping the last few episodes, and REALLY dropped the proverbial ball this time.  

Her lie won’t even last very long, as an embittered Cassidy informs Gabler and Jesse about Karla’s idol back at the camp.  Neither seems particularly surprised, so instead we get another confessional from Gabler about how he’s hiding in plain sight.  All this does is allow Jesse to firmly set Cody straight once everyone is back at camp.  Cody, however, isn’t worried.  He anticipated the possibility that Karla was lying to him, so he’s not hurt, and figures he can play his idol if everything goes wrong.  

This is where the hubris alarms start going off.  If you don’t hear them now, don’t worry.  They’ll get louder very soon.  

Our immunity challenge comes courtesy of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  You may remember this as the “Hanging Bat” challenge, or else the one where hiding your puzzle answers was emphasized.  Seems production did not learn from that, since no one is given the means to hide the combination lock portion of the challenge this time.  We do get a fairly back-and-forth race, where Jesse is in last on the first leg, only to finish the second leg first.  This seems like it would be foreshadowing a Karla comeback, since she struggles the most on the second leg, and does well on the puzzle in the third leg.  However, in addition to the hand injury, and twisting her ankle in this very challenge, Karla’s adrenaline gets to her, and her entire body seizes up in one large cramp.  This gives her closest competition, Cody and Cassidy, and edge, leading to a narrow, but well-earned victory, for Cassidy.  

With their backup to Karla, and therefore person they could split votes on, now immune, our majority needs another plan.  Options are limited, since half the players can now be immune based on common knowledge (remember, people still don’t know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol).  Cody, thereby, comes up with a decent plan to prevent the burning of his idol.  Karla having now come clean to him herself, he suggests the pair openly bluff that they will play their idols to scare everyone into voting for Owen (telling Owen the idea is Gabler, obviously).  Then, they can not play their idols, and all be safe to the end.  A logical plan, with clear upsides for all.  Maybe not ideal, since aside from possibly Gabler (and even that’s a stretch), Owen is the easiest to beat in front of a jury at this point, but it’s hard to fault a plan that lets you keep your up until the last round it can be used.  And as Karla says, everyone falls in line with the plan very easily.  

Or so it would seem!  For you see, Cody, despite his manner of speaking, is NOT a fool!  He does NOT want Karla to go to the end, and DOES want her out tonight!  Thus, the whole plan was a well-played ruse to make Karla feel safe, so that she does not play her idol and can go home.  Frankly, ingenious, and Cody plays it off very well.  See, Karla: THIS is how you pitch yourself!

Ah, but Cody forgets that he needs to keep up the act 100% of the time.  The man just can’t help himself bragging, mostly in confessional, but somewhat to Jesse, about how brilliant his plan is.  He takes out the biggest threat, his stock skyrockets.  No one can question his resume again.  But a la Todd and Jean-Robert on “Survivor China”, this gets Jesse to realize that Cody is more on the ball than he imagined.  This makes Cody a threat in the end, one that Jesse can’t abide.  Not mentioned, but probably on his mind, is that he, Jesse, is the biggest threat left after Karla.  Therefore, keeping Karla in the game helps mask his threat level.  Yeah, MAYBE Jesse has the social capital to turn it around on Cassidy if Karla went tonight, but that’d be a tough sell even in the best of circumstances.  Point being, if you didn’t notice the obvious hubris being set up before, you do now.

Thus, Jesse starts plotting to get Cody out.  Most everyone he talks to is on board (since most of them are vulnerable anyway), and in case they’re hesitant, Jesse points out that Karla’s idol can be burned, so even if she’s not gone, the biggest target becomes vulnerable at the end anyway.  But, what of Cody’s idol?  Word’s gotten around about that as well.  Not to worry, Jesse tells them, HE has Cody’s idol!  This is how he can guarantee Karla playing her own: He plays Cody’s idol, she naturally spooks and plays hers.  Honestly, a very logical plan overall.  What could possibly go wrong?

Idol curiosity, of course!  As in curiosity about the idol.  Karla wants to compare notes on what the idols look like, so Cody needs to get his back from Jesse to show her, in order to keep up the pretense of the fake plan he sold to her.  Jesse, in turns, needs to give Cody back the idol, lest the cover be blown on HIS plan to get rid of Cody.  Naturally, everyone Jesse has pitched this plan to is terrified, but Jesse assures them he can get it back from Cody.  How he plans to do so I can’t say.  With James out of the game, there’s no Knowledge is Power to spook Cody with.  And we probably won’t find out, as now we head off to Tribal Council.  Whether Jesse got it back or not, no way they’re going to tell us now.  They’ll want to keep the suspense going as long as possible.  

Largely due to the lack of forced metaphors, Tribal tonight is actually a pretty enjoyable affair.  Most of the talk centers around idols, with Cody and Karla both coming clean to Probst about them.  Probst asks why, and the pair justifies their strong-arming.  Jesse gets to bring up his social contract again, and how it impacts play style.  Certainly one of the more interesting threads we’ve had in discussions this season.  And, of course, Owen gives me the chance to reference “Book of Mormon” by saying he’s following the “Book of Sandra”.  Gotta love that.  

The editors have done a decent job at giving us mystery tonight, but they can’t stop the hubris.  Jesse’s plan works, with him playing Cody’s idol for Owen.  Honestly a brilliant move.  Builds social capital with Owen, someone who doesn’t have close ties to much of anyone left in the game.  Shows confidence and gamesmanship in front of the jury.  And spooks Karla into playing her idol.  Much as I have ragged on her gameplay this episode, I’m not going to fault Karla for playing that tonight.  True, she didn’t need to by the numbers, and it does show she was still out of the strategic loop.  But as an up-front threat, seeing that the plan is not going how you thought?  Can’t be too cautious, in my opinion.  

Back to Jesse, though.  The one flaw, and it is a minor flaw, that I can find in his plan is that in owning his move in front of the jury, he also burns Cody something fierce.  Now, Cody being Cody, he plays it off like it’s nothing, but beneath the jovial veneer, the man is PISSED!  Gives Jesse the double-middle finger in his exit confessional!  So yeah, that’s one jury vote Jesse is most likely not getting, but given the limited time Cody has on the jury, I doubt it poisons the whole thing against him.  Plus, he has a decent to near-guaranteed shot at most of the other votes.  

As for Cody leaving, I’m not overly sorry to see him go.  The man had more depth than some others I could name, but MAN, I do not jibe with his manner of speaking, and he just didn’t do it for me.  Certainly not over Karla, the other main target.  

Like I said earlier, this is a great episode!  A real return to form for the show!  They may not have had a good mystery, but the plan itself was in some ways so implausible that it still felt tense.  We had a good idea why everyone did what they did, and funny moments and an exceptionally strong score make this an exceptionally strong episode, hopefully leading to an exciting finish!  And thus, now it is time for the season-requisite Ranking of the Finalists, where I talk about who is the biggest threat to win, and go down from there.  

JESSE-Normally, this is where I have to remind people that my rankings are based on “Who wins if they get to the end?” not “How likely is this person to get to the end?”.  For once, this is not the case, as the person I would say has (at least one of the better) shots to get to the end is also the person most likely to win in the end.  Jesse has done a fantastic job creating social bonds with everyone, and manipulating the vote to basically always go the way he wants it.  This might make his game invisible to those at the end, but I don’t think we can say that after his performance tonight.  If they didn’t before, the jury now knows Jesse’s name.  Paradoxically, Jesse is still viewed as less of a threat than Karla, plus he has an idol, guaranteeing him at least a spot at Final Four Firemaking.  Given his perceived lower threat level, plus the aforementioned social bonds, I could easily see Jesse making it to the end, where he easily steamrollers over everyone left, losing possibly just Cody’s vote.  

KARLA-Honestly, Karla has played a very similar game to Jesse, just with less success.  She has the good social bonds, kept an idol relatively secret for a long time, and even has an edge in that she has escaped the proverbial jaws of death several times.  Karla is just less subtle about it, making her more of an overt threat.  Thus, her getting to the end is a bigger obstacle than her winning in the end.  She beats most everyone, save Jesse, given that she has fewer post-merge strategic victories to her name than he does.  But, since everyone is gunning for her at this point, her chances of getting there are slim.  

CASSIDY-Cassidy has honestly played a pretty solid game, and has also survived being the default target a number of times.  The jury won’t forget that, and could reward her for it.  Really, the issue for Cassidy is that her game might be TOO subtle, and she’ll need to articulate herself well to the jurying order to have a shot.  She can definitely do it, but she’ll need to bring her “A” game in the end.  

GABLER-Despite what his placement on this list might indicate, Gabler is not out of it when he gets to the end.  He has had his messy moments, to be sure, but he has had his good subtle gameplay moments as well.  Lest we forget from all his confessionals about “Hiding in plain sight”.  If he can articulate that well to the jury, he might have a shot.  Really, the biggest pitfall for Gabler is that he’s oddly kind of in the same position as Xander on “Survivor 41”: It’s less that he DOESN’T have an argument to win the game, but that the jury’s perception of him may not allow them to HEAR that argument, even if he makes it well.  

OWEN-God bless Owen.  The dude has been trying this entire season, but just cannot get traction to save his life.  He seems to be pretty well-liked, and that’s not nothing, but for a game like Owen’s where he has had no real agency for a good chunk of the time, he needs to be up against other people the jury just HATES, and there’s no one like that this season.  Really, the only thing that I would say gives Owen a shot to win is the universe is secretly a big “Total Drama Island” fan, and wants symmetry there.  

And there you have my rankings.  This year, however, I’m feeling confident, so I will go one step further, and paint how the finale will go in broad strokes.  With all the talk of Karla’s body failing her that didn’t pay off much in this episode, coupled with the fact that she seems set up as Jesse’s rival, the last obstacle he must overcome for victory, Karla wins immunity at 5.  Jesse is naturally also immune at 5 because of Jeanine’s idol.  Thus, Cassidy the default boot goes here.  Owen wins and 4, takes Jesse to the end due to Jesse playing the idol for him this episode, and sends Gabler and Karla to fire, where Gabler wins.  A better outdoorsman, and Karla’s body gives out finally.  Jesse wins in the finals, but Gabler picks up a couple of votes, or at least Cody’s.  

Will we marvel at my predictive powers, or mock them?  Find out in the finale next week!

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 11: Nothingburger

I’ll admit, I’ve gone fairly esoteric with a lot of the blog titles this season.  Stuff that requires explanation in the opening paragraph to make sense.  But I think this title probably stands on its own, and requires no explanation.  As such, I find myself with a lot of free space.  Space probably best filled with another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty minor one this time, but a missed joke opportunity still counts.  Prior to the immunity challenge last episode, I failed to mention a brief exchange wherein Karla complimented Jeff’s black shirt.  Jeff played it up, and proceeded to talk back a bit, bordering on flirting.  Now, if we’re being real, this was just some witty show banter.  A friendly ribbing, nothing more.  Yet, snarky blogger that I am, I must play it up as though it were more serious.  Don’t flirt with Karla, Probst.  A, you’re married, B, Karla’s married, and C, Karla doesn’t swing that way anyway.  

Diving into ACTUAL content, we have our fallout from Tribal Council, and unsurprisingly, Sami is the one driving it, given that he was left out of the last vote.  As he notes, this is unusual for him.  To his credit, I will say that Sami has the correct attitude about being left out.  He rightly acknowledges it’s an issue, and he needs to do work to correct it.  

The flaw for Sami is that he’s terrible at correcting it.  The stray Karla vote is at the top of everyone’s minds, particularly Karla, and they want to know who did it.  Rather than try and pin it on Noelle, who isn’t there to defend herself, Sami tries to pin it on Gabler.  If he needs to pin it on someone still in the game, Gabler is probably the best choice (Cassidy, Jesse, or Cody are implausible, and Sami probably still wants to be good with Owen), but no one buys it.  Sami insists it’s Gabler for a bit, before realizing this is a losing avenue, and so just comes clean to everyone.  Congratulations, Sami!  You’ve now proven you can’t be trusted, and don’t even get the brownie points of owning your mistake!

Sami is not the only one having a bad day, however.  Gabler talks to Owen about a way to get both of them to the end, but Owen is too busy having a pity party to notice.  He laments that he hasn’t voted correctly since the merge, which I have to point out is SLIGHTLY incorrect on his part.  He did vote correctly on the Jeanine boot, though I can still sympathize as people TRIED to leave him out of that one.  Owen compares himself to Charlie Brown, eternally getting the football pulled away from him.  Owen evidently fails to remember that Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) has already claimed the title of this show’s Charlie Brown.  Given some of the things Spencer has said post-appearance however… Yeah, I’d much rather Owen be the remembered one as well.  

Morning comes, and we see why Sami’s letter from home was not highlighted last episode.  They were saving it for here!  Doesn’t excuse not highlighting Noelle’s, but hey, it’s something.  Sami uses his letter for inspiration to keep fighting, and talks about the bond he has with his family, complete with adorable pictures of him with them.  Cute and all, but this works about as well as Xander’s flashback in the finale of “Survivor 41”: Trying too hard.  

Cheesy as it is, Sami’s prayers get answered when Karla still deigns to talk strategy with him.  He puts a bug in her ear about Cassidy spilling the news about her idol.  How does Cassidy know about the idol?  Karla told her, of course!  Quite a while ago, if the flashback is to be believed!  Gee, I can totally see why that bit of information was left on the cutting-room floor until now!  Not like it was IMPORTANT to understand the strategy or anything!  In any case, Karla does get a bit paranoid about Cassidy saying something she shouldn’t.  The pair talk, and appear to be good for now, but Karla admits it may be time to cut Cassidy.  

The best I can say for this idea is that Karla is right that for her game, Cassidy will need to go at some point.  As long as both are in the game, they’ll be seen as a pair, and keep being targeted.  Plus, Cassidy can then steal credit for some of Karla’s ideas.  But the fact is, time is nigh to move against the pair of Jesse/Cody.  They have two idols (though admittedly they only know about one), and have yet to be targeted, despite being as threatening a pair as Cassidy/Karla.  Time is running out before they just get a free pass to the finals.  Strike while you can, because you may not get another chance.  

Say what you will about this season, but the players on this cast are really nice.  Look, they’re all enjoying a quiet moment watching the sun rise!  Of course, such mushiness makes the producers gag, so they throw yet ANOTHER advantage into the mix.  In this case, there’s a note delivered by boat that basically says “There’s an advantage in the jungle, go find it.” and everyone takes off running.  Credit where it’s due, the producers actually take the time to HIDE this one decently well.  Yeah, it’s still in a tree, but it’s a NORMAL-LOOKING tree, not a distinctive one.  Further, the color of the wrapping matches the tree bark pretty closely, and the green logo could easily be mistaken for lichen at a distance.  Up close, yeah, it sticks out, but if someone was just running past, I can’t blame people for missing it.  Plus, it leads to a hilarious montage of people passing right by it without realizing.  

In the end, it is a casual glance from Cody while talking with Gabler that finds the advantage.  Cody puts on a good poker face, casually brings his hand up the tree, and manages to get away without being caught.  The advantage itself is actually pretty good overall.  Basically, Cody is informed that the next immunity challenge will the one where everyone lies under a metal grate in the ocean while the tide comes in.  Cody is allowed to bet on a winner, and if he guesses right, he gets immunity as well.  Oddly, no consequence in the event he guesses wrong.  Guess we’re just throwing out that part of the new era now?  

In concept, this is a great advantage.  It relies on people having a solid understanding of each person’s strengths, while not being game-breaking should someone be good at this particular task.  That said, there’s a couple of tweaks that it could use, as right now it’s still a LITTLE too powerful.  One of those tweaks actually happens immediately, and is more a problem for the audience than for the advantage itself.  We get to see who Cody wrote down.  He chooses Owen, which I can’t fault, but I don’t feel we should have seen him write the name down.  

The reason why becomes clear once we get to the challenge.  Cody is forced to hand the advantage over to Probst, who explains that who Cody bet on will be revealed after the votes are cast, but before they’re read.  This is the element that makes this advantage a little too powerful, at least for me.  It effectively gives the finder immunity, if no one knows whether they bet correctly or not.  Most sensible players will just avoid that person on principle, meaning Cody is for all intents and purposes immune no matter what.  It still requires effort to maintain the bluff, I suppose, but it doesn’t seem like that much effort in the aggregate.  This is also why we saw who Cody wrote down.  He was never going to be targeted with the way this advantage played out, so might as well let the audience in on his thoughts.  But for me, it would have been more fun to keep Cody’s status a mystery, along with the audience.  Let us find out with the players if Cody is safe or not.  A red herring, sure, but a fun red herring.  

Before finding out if Cody bet correctly, let us take a moment to discuss the challenge.  As Probst says, in one of his rare JUSTIFIED moments of hyperbole, this challenge is a fan-favorite.  Comes from a beloved season, can be psychologically scarring, what’s not to love?  And I will say, it makes a nice change of pace from the usual endurance challenge.  Sadly, I must give a dissenting opinion, as this challenge has never really done it for me.  I think this issue is that I’m someone who’s very comfortable in the water, and got used to getting dunked against my will when playing with my father in the pool.  Thus, keeping calm when water flows over your head doesn’t seem all that bothersome to me.  

Regarding the actual run of the challenge, we get to see some really creative strategies this time.  Cassidy in particular deserves a shout-out for trying to shove her entire body through the grate!  In the end, however, both Owen and Karla keep so calm that the tide actually starts receding again!  You may remember that this challenge originally comes from “Survivor Palau”.  You may also remember that the final immunity challenge that season lasted nearly twelve hours, far longer than production planned.  

Yeah, those days are gone.  Probst calls the challenge there, awarding both immunity.  Cheap!  Ok, ok, if I’m going to be fair, it kind of makes sense, given the show would need to wait for the tide to come in AGAIN, for what might just be the same outcome over and over.  They do have a schedule to keep.  Can’t call it the toughest iteration of the show if you’re gonna cop out like this though.  

So yeah, Cody’s immune.  Karla and Owen are immune.  There are three idols left in the game.  We have the potential for yet ANOTHER Advantagegeddon this episode.  Because that’s definitely what the viewing public want.  

Thankfully these people seem unlikely to play their idols, and thus the targeting begins.  Cassidy is upset at trying yet failing in the challenge, but Owen comforts her with a target on Sami.  Most people seem on board with this, but Karla, paranoid about knowledge of her idol being spread, still wants to go for Cassidy.  Most other people are initially for this, but then Jesse thinks “Hey, what if we DID go for Sami.”  And, messy as he plays, it kind of makes sense.  While we the audience see Sami as a messy player, he does give a good performance in front of the jury.  You’ll not the nods and words of assent basically every time Sami opens his mouth at this Tribal Council.  Even those times where he’s putting his foot in it, he’s getting love from the jury.  Plus, as Jesse notes, Karla will likely vote Cassidy, driving a rift between them.  This sort of argument takes attention off himself and Cody, which can only be good for him.  Cody isn’t entirely convinced, but yeah, of the choices presented, Sami is clearly the superior boot.  We can only hope that Karla sees it to avoid proverbially shooting herself in the foot.  

As is the norm this season, Tribal is a bland, uninteresting affair, save for one more bit of messy gameplay from Sami.  He had talked about using his Shot in the Dark just to be safe.  This in and of itself I have no fault with.  Either people are telling Sami the truth, and his vote doesn’t matter, in which case he loses almost nothing, or people are lying to Sami, and he may as well make the one remaining move he has to protect himself.  What I CAN fault him for is announcing this intention at Tribal Council.  Sami, have you never heard of a poker face?  Keeping things close to your chest?  Alerting people to your plans is the way your plans go awry!

The only way this makes sense is if Sami was going for a bluff; not actually intending to play said Shot in the Dark.  For a moment, when we see him make a big gesture in the voting booth, but not actually play the thing, it seems like this might be the route he’s going.  But no, he played it.  And to no affect, either.  Whoopee.  I don’t hate the Shot in the Dark for what it is, but it has been ineffectual at best every time it comes up.  

Sami did need to play it, however, as he was going home.  Karla even came to her senses and voted him out, thus avoiding the pitfall set up by Jesse.  I can’t say I’m too sorry to see him go.  His gameplay was not the worst, but like I said, messy.  I also grew tired of him constantly talking about his age.  While by no means the nadir of characters, even on this season alone, there just wasn’t much more to him that we didn’t already see.  Not to rag on the guy too much, though.  He goes out with a lot of class, congratulating everyone and inviting them to visit him in Vegas.  Maybe not the best player, but definitely a good dude overall.  

Frankly, the title of this blog tells you my thoughts on the episode.  Nothing egregiously bad happens.  Hell, I even enjoyed the twist they introduced, even if it does need a few tweaks.  But man, they had nothing to work with.  An obvious boot, little to no strategy advancement, and now it even seems like an obvious outcome.  With his two idols, Jesse, I would argue the biggest jury threat, now has a free pass to the final four.  True, he could still lose fire-making, but I don’t see that happening.  There are worlds where Jesse doesn’t win, but for those, he needed to be voted out, or at least weakened, by now.  Jesse has played a good game, and it would make this blog 3 for 3 in the new era for winner picks, but man, it would be so predictable, a lot of the fun would be gone.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.