It may have been a long time coming, just due to scheduling issues, but believe it or not, this is one of the “What-If?” scenarios I’ve been looking forward to doing the most. Guatemala is what I would consider my “first” season of “Survivor” (depending on how you define one’s “first season”, arguments could be made for “Survivor Africa”, “Survivor Pearl Islands”, or “Survivor Exile Island” being my first season), and it’s one that I think is criminally underrated by the fan base. So, can we change that? With one simple timeline alteration, can we put “Survivor Guatemala” back on the map? Let’s take a look and find out!
Before we get into that, though, a friendly reminder that it’s hard to talk about how a timeline changes without referencing how it actually played out in reality. As such, there will be SPOILERS ahead, both for this season, and seasons that come after it. If you don’t want to risk these spoilers, watch at least Guatemala before reading this blog. For everyone else, let’s take a look at the change:
THE IMPACT
We’ve got a fairly late change in the timeline this time around, coming in the penultimate episode of the season. Specifically, Cindy’s decision to keep her car in the final reward challenge. For those of you who may be newer fans of “Survivor” who failed to heed my warning earlier, this may require a bit of an explanation. Back in the old days, starting with “Survivor The Australian Outback”, the show used to give away a new car as a reward, usually the final reward. It was one of the big prizes, definitely worth playing for. However, the fandom quickly noticed a pattern: Whoever won the car did not win the game as a whole. They might get close, certainly, but never win. Whether this was really just coincidence, or resentment over the challenge winner getting a good prize is up for debate. What isn’t is that this started being referred to as “The Car Curse” by fans, and subsequently, it wasn’t long before the show itself took notice and worked it into the game. Specifically, the curse was referenced by the show here, and in a clever twist, offered Cindy an out. Rather than keep her car, she could give up her car, and instead the remaining four players would each get a car themselves. An intriguing twist, as well as a good bit of advertising for the car, as any car not chosen basically went into a raffle at dealerships across the US. In our timeline, Cindy reasoned that in giving up a guaranteed reward for a possible future reward would be foolish, and kept the car for herself. She did seriously consider giving it up, though, and maybe would have done so had she known that not giving it up would directly lead to her elimination. So let’s change that, shall we?
In this timeline, Cindy decides that, game or no game, it’s more important that as many people get new cars as possible, especially as most of them have some sort of need for one. She still goes on reward, and still takes Stephenie, but now Stephenie is the one driving, rather than Cindy. More impactful, though, is how everyone reacts to it. In our timeline, there was a fairly even split on opinion. Rafe and Danni felt that Cindy should have given up the reward, while Stephenie and Lydia felt that Cindy should have kept it for herself. Rafe and Stephenie were the ones most militant about their positions, with Danni and Lydia holding opinions, but not being inclined to act on them. With the decision changed, pretty much the same thing happens, now flip-flopped. Danni is probably happy with Cindy, but not willing to sacrifice her game for her, while Lydia doesn’t think Cindy made the right call, but doesn’t see her as a threat. Stephenie does, however, and so Cindy is now target #1 for her. Rafe, meanwhile, now “Can’t vote Cindy off tonight”, as he talks about even in our timeline. Thus, once again, it comes down to a battle of wills between Rafe and Stephenie as to who goes home, just with Rafe advocating for Cindy to stay, and Stephenie advocating for Cindy to go. There’s no reason to assume that Rafe won’t win out like he did in our timeline, so Cindy stays around this episode. As to who goes? Well, by process of elimination, Lydia. Rafe had a final 2 deal with Stephenie, couldn’t vote out Cindy, and promised to take Danni as far as he could (final three in our timeline, but as we’ll see in the next section, this change affects how strongly Rafe holds that deal), thus leaving Lydia as the only target. Stephenie, not wanting to lose what she considered her ideal finals partner, agrees, and Lydia goes home, earlier than expected.
THE FALLOUT
Heading into the final 4, while Cindy is a better challenge competitor than Lydia, there’s no reason to assume Rafe doesn’t win immunity again. Still, this puts Rafe in a bit of a pickle. He’s now got some sort of obligation to everyone, and doesn’t want to go home himself, so who does he vote out? As I hinted above, I think it’s his bond with Danni that caves here. Rafe was never taking out Stephenie, since they had the final 2 deal, and Rafe still feels indebted to Cindy over the car thing. He probably morally justifies himself by saying he took Danni father than she would have without him, and that circumstances just didn’t work out. Thus, Stephenie finally gets her way, and Danni goes out at 4.
This, then, creates an interesting scenario at our final 3, as our canonical challenge winner is no longer present, replaced by Cindy. This timeline change doesn’t undo Rafe’s mistake in the challenge, but does Cindy beat Stephenie? Definitely in the realm of possibility, but if you asked what I thought most likely, I would have to say she does not. In generally, this challenge favored height, and while there wasn’t a great height difference between Stephenie and Danni, Stephenie is definitely taller than Cindy, and so probably wins immunity here. Stephenie, then, can finally take out Cindy without needing to worry about Rafe’s moralizing, and keep who she sees as her ideal final 2 partner. After all, they made the same moves, and Stephenie thinks her fame and general love from her time on “Survivor Palau” will win over the jury.
As in our timeline, she is mistaken. Nearly all the resentment she engendered on the jury in our timeline is still there, no matter who she’s up against. In this case, she’s given Rafe an easy win, rather than Danni. It would almost not be wroth talking about, were the possibility of the first unanimous victory not present. After all, the only changes on the jury are in order of elimination, and Danni being on the jury instead of Rafe. Rafe was Stephenie’s only vote at Final Tribal Council in our timeline, and while Danni is probably not too happy with Rafe, the two did still have a bond, and Danni had no big love of Stephenie. It’s not inconceivable that she would go against Rafe in revenge, but it’s also not inconceivable that she would recognize his no-win situation, and give him the win anyway. So, for the sake of things in the next section, let’s assume that Rafe’s win is unanimous. What happens then?
THE LEGACY
As you’d expect, being the first season to give us a unanimous winner saves Guatemala from the pile of obscurity it currently rests in today. This is a major milestone for the show, and as this season doesn’t have the controversial elements that “Survivor Fiji” does, it becomes a bigger deal in this timeline. Does that lead to more returnees from the season? Well, kind of. You see, while Guatemala is a bigger deal with Rafe’s victory than with Danni’s victory, it still doesn’t change two of the things production hates about the season: The difficulty in filming, and the “ruining” of Stephenie’s heroic story. As such, production is disinclined to bring back many people from the season, and so we only get a couple. Rafe is a lock for a future return for sure. His moral dilemmas mean he probably gets slotted into the Heroes tribe on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. I think the only way he doesn’t is if they feel like he covers the same ground as J.T. (“Survivor Tocantins”), and want that season remembered more so than Guatemala. If Rafe isn’t on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, though, he’s on “Survivor Game Changers” for sure, probably in J.T.’s spot. And don’t think he isn’t called for “Survivor Winners at War”, either. The public loved Rafe at the time, even without his win. With his win, particularly the first unanimous one? Rafe’s popularity EXPLODES, and until Sandra gets her second win, he’s probably considered the best player of the game.
Conversely, Danni’s reputation takes an undeserved hit. Even in our timeline, Danni played a quiet game. A smart one, to be sure, but not one that made for good tv. We really only got her story on the season BECAUSE she won. Without a win under her belt, Danni probably initially fades into obscurity, and production is probably not super into wanting her back, because of her cagey answers. The fandom as well probably initially dismisses Danni as a competent enough player, but screwed by the numbers, and not the greatest character. I suspect appreciation for Danni only returns after a few years, when interviews with other contestants talk about how threatening Danni was. People appreciate her game more, and start calling for her to have another shot, calls that fall largely on deaf ears. The fact is, Danni just isn’t good tv, and production doesn’t want that, no matter how good you are at the game. The only chance Danni has of returning in this timeline is if production puts her on the ballot for “Survivor Cambodia” due to fan pressure, and Danni pulls off a killer social media campaign (in this timeline, while Danni gets a lot of love from the hardcore fans the casuals wouldn’t know her if they passed her on the street). Other than that, though, Danni gets undeservedly thrown into obscurity.
Do these changes elevate “Survivor Guatemala” as a whole? I would say so. We now have an impactful, controversial decision that people remember, and keep them talking about the season, as well as a beloved winner, who was the first unanimous victory to boot. People are probably still salty about “Stephenie’s evil twin” as Dalton Ross puts it, and don’t think too highly of much of the cast, but it must be said that with this change, Guatemala gets a lot more well-deserved respect.
But, of course, what of Cindy, the person who started this whole thing? Well, she’s definitely more well-remembered in this timeline, but not necessarily for the best reasons. Her decision is hotly debated, and given that she still ultimately only got third place, her decision is probably put up there with the “Dumbest Moves in ‘Survivor’ History” debate. She’s probably up in the poll for which move was the dumbest at the end of “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. Still, the show loves a good story, so Cindy does get to come back, probably in “Survivor Micronesia”, taking Parvati’s spot, but that’s a WHOLE other can of worms we won’t get into right now. The later lack of car reward challenges probably has Cindy fade back a bit, but she’s still a known note in “Survivor” history, and might even get a third shot on something like “Survivor Game Changers”. So now, the big question: Was Cindy right to keep the car? Obviously it’s impossible to say, as this is all educated-guesswork, but it ultimately depends on what you want more: Fame, or a car? Yes, Cindy got to keep her prize in our timeline, but faded into obscurity. In this new timeline, she doesn’t win much of anything, but returns at least once, and is remembered (not always positively, but remembered) by the fanbase. Which is the better option? Really, only Cindy herself knows for sure.
Well, that was a fun one, and I hope you enjoyed this trip into deep speculation. I look forward to doing more in the future, and as always, you are welcome to suggest any timeline change you’d like to see me examine in the comments below. Credit will be given should I use anyone’s suggestion as to what change I should look at. The ground rules for what changes I’ll consider are listed below:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast rules, there are two what I call “Flexible Rules”. As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling argument, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
That’s it for now! Hopefully not so long a gap between this and the next blog, and look forward to seeing you all then!
-Matt
idolspeculation 