Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Finale: Host with the Too Much

Look, I’ve been pretty clear on my stance on Probst in the past.  I think he is terrible as executive producer, and have criticized his decisions relentlessly.  But when it comes to the argument that he’s become a bad host, whether because he talks too much during challenges, or forces metaphors, or because he plays up the schmaltzy moments too much, I tend to disagree.  The man has his flaws as a host, certainly; no host is perfect.  When he’s on, however, he’s ON, lending dignity and gravitas that the show needs at vital moments.  What few excesses he does have tend to really be minor annoyances rather than any overall hosting problem.  Thus, when people have called for him to resign and let someone else take over, I tend to poo-poo the suggestion.  

After tonight, I’m open to it.  

Jumping ahead a bit, this is not one of the overall great finales.  Precious little happens, and while there’s no particularly BAD moments, there’s nothing that stands out as much either.  Still a solid product I’m glad I watched, but not one I’ll be chomping at the bit to go back to anytime soon.  Yet, with rare exception, the true NEGATIVES of this episode all came from Probst, and if your presences is a net negative, then yeah, replacing you is a valid consideration.  Let’s get into why, shall we?

Having realized that the “new camp” thing adds exactly zero drama, especially when it’s so anticipated the cast brings their entire camp with them, we don’t even try and play it up as a big thing.  Instead, we get everyone making their cases as to why they should win.  Heidi brings up being the last surviving Soka member, finding and playing an idol, and just in general outliving her allies.  All fair points.  I still say she has no chance, but that’s more due to the strength of other’s games making hers look relatively weak in comparison than her having zero argument here.  Yam Yam talks about his social bonds.  Carson notes how he’s been a driving force behind maneuvering Tika to the end game.  Admittedly Lauren and Carolyn don’t get as much of an argument here, the former talking about her determination in being the last surviving Ratu, and the latter talking about her growth and her emotions, but it’s something at least.  They may not make the argument directly, but you can see how it would be parlayed as such.  

In another nice change, there’s no puzzle leading to a challenge advantage this time.  Then again, perhaps that’s because they’ve hidden another idol for these people to go find instead.  Because heaven forbid we have a vote with no idol!  We get the usual hunting montage, but with no find.  We do however, get a lot of mileage out of the “Ironic confessional talking about idol hunting interposed over footage of said contestant being right next to the idol”.  That’s largely because this idol is particularly well-hidden.  The wrappings are not particularly flashy, and the tree it’s hidden in is not particularly significant-looking.  It’s also tied to a branch, forcing people to look up, rather than in a nook or knot-hole.  Point being, I’m not gonna give these players too much flak for missing this one.  Also, it may have taken the entire damn season, but these people have FINALLY learned to poke in with a stick first when idol hunting.  Better late than never, I guess.

Lauren, however, is not just hoping for an idol to keep her safe.  She determines that the Tika 3 need to be broken up, and so goes about building up how much of a threat Carson is, an argument both Yam Yam and Carolyn seem to buy.  Good for her.  

We come to our challenge, and it’s one that I’m actually a little excited for this time.  It’s your standard obstacle course leading into a puzzle, but the structure they have to climb through for the first let is actually fairly intricate, even requiring backtracking at times.  Granted, by the standards of older seasons it’s nothing impressive, but given that the new era can be described as “The Place Where Challenge Grandeur and Originality Go To Die”, I’ll take what I can get.  

While not a thing that particularly annoys me, I will say Probst was a bit nice to Carolyn in this challenge.  He tells her she’s still in it, despite basically everyone else being a leg ahead of her.  Granted, she does get to the puzzle in the end, so this is not as egregious as other instances of false Probst-hope, but still, a tad on the optimistic side.  Carson, who did well in pretty much all the legs, ends up winning, thereby making all that buildup to a possible Tika breakup entirely pointless.  

Carson also gets to go to “The Sanctuary” for spaghetti and various forms of cake.  Here is where we learn that Carson is the only non-heathen amongst the group, as the only one who correctly identifies chocolate cake as being superior to carrot cake.  Carson also gets to take one person with him, and chooses Yam Yam, which I really can’t fault.  He’s a good ally, and good person to strategize with.  Plus, if there’s any need to hide that he and Yam Yam are tight at this point (which I would say there isn’t, but hey, good to cover your bases), Carson can always fall back on “He’s received the fewest rewards this season” excuse.  

Of course, food is not the only order of business at “The Sanctuary”.  Carson winning immunity might have made the breakup of the Tika 3 unlikely, but still something to be considered.  Carson wants them to hold strong, and fears the narrative building around Lauren if she’s allowed to stay in.  Privately, Carson is also worried that breaking up the Tika 3 makes him more vulnerable, which is fair.  Yam Yam, on the other hand, is still on the “Carolyn’s a threat” train, and thinks they should get her out as a result.  Interestingly, both take stances on Carolyn that mirror the two perspectives of her from the fandom as a whole.  Carson notes that, while she did find an idol, her use of it, when looked at in a vacuum, didn’t matter.  She comes across as emotional and untethered; not the sort of person you vote for to win.   Yam Yam notes that because of how she comes across, the fact that she even kept a secret for so long comes across as impressive, and she can argue her game well.  Only time will tell which narrative the jury favors, but it’s interesting how close that conversation works.  

For Lauren, obviously, this outcome is about the worst for her.  Let it not be said she rolls over and dies, however.  Naturally, with herself, Carolyn, and Heidi left alone at camp, they talk strategy.  None of them want to go home, and Carson’s immune, so Yam Yam is naturally the name put out there.  Carolyn would seem to be the most reluctant, but Lauren rightly spills the beans on his throwing out Carolyn’s name.  Carolyn is, naturally, now rather mistrustful and upset with Yam Yam, something that shows on her face and body language when he returns from reward.  For all that Yam Yam has good emotional and interpersonal intelligence, he really seemed to initially misread the room on his return.  Then again, his asking “Are you mad at me?” to the woman whose body language clearly conveys just that was hilarious, and he does quickly pick up what happened, so I’ll let it slide.  

Carson and Yam Yam confer.  Carson’s not a fan of Tika splitting up just yet, but if it does, it seems he’d prefer Yam Yam stay over Carolyn.  Thus, Yam Yam goes and tries to pitch that Carson’s on his side to vote out Carolyn.  Lauren and Heidi seem receptive, but aren’t the most enthused, mostly due to mistrust.  They admit they’d prefer that Tika break themselves up, but don’t believe Carson would actually go for it.  Yam Yam does float out the possibility of voting for Heidi, but this is quickly dismissed, thereby hopefully preventing her from actually going, and me having to give the FINALE of a season the disgrace of an “Ethan Zohn Downside”.  

In the debate of Carolyn, Yam Yam, or Lauren, that’s the descending order I would say to get rid of them in.  Carolyn is established to be good at fire, and is building a narrative of how her perception let her sneak through.  Dangerous in the end.  Yam Yam has been good socially, more so than Lauren, who never really had power.  Granted, her narrative of surviving despite an early target is a threat, but Yam Yam had the same target several times in the early merge area, so I still give him the slight edge.  Really, the only advantages to going Lauren over Yam Yam are that keeping the Tika 3 intact is a shield for Carson (which is only an upside for Carson), and Lauren’s challenge prowess.  I wouldn’t say any of these is a terrible decision, but that would be my rankings.  And hey, we get good mystery between all three, helped along by Lauren going on another idol hunt before we head off to Tribal Council.  

Sorry, I misspoke.  I should rather say we HAD good mystery, until the Tribal Council itself started up.  Lauren becomes incredibly emotional about her time in the game, and all the obstacles she’s overcome.  One does not get this dramatic unless they’re gone and they know if.  Either Lauren is truly dead in the water, or she’s a terrible actor.  

Now, on its own, this could be a good emotional moment.  A woman who fought so hard, pushed to brink by circumstances beyond her control.  It’s good stuff, and for all my jokes about her “terrible acting”, if it’s not acting, it’s raw and compelling.  Too bad Probst has to make it a MOMENT!  Rather than just letting the scene play out, maybe ask a few probing questions to help facility more from Lauren, Probst has to talk about how “This is what ‘Survivor’ is all about!”, and how much it means to Lauren to be here, rather than letting her do it herself.  It’s like Probst doesn’t trust the cast to narrate their own season, and it’s one of my major gripes with him tonight.  The moment was fine without you, Probst.  Add yourself when needed, but you were NOT needed, except to read the votes, at this Tribal Council.  

About the only point in this Tribal Council’s favor is how the editing tricks do make Lauren’s idol bluff plausible.  Compared to, say, Max’s joke on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, given how flashback idols are now a “thing”, and the sort of editing tricks the new era brings, we entirely buy that Lauren might have found an idol without us seeing it.  It’s the one time the whole Tribal Council I thought there was any chance Lauren might not go.  

Sadly for Lauren, she does not, though she does give the remaining four a good heart attack on her way out by doing so, which I have to give some respect to.  That said, I’m not too displeased to see Lauren go here.  She was fine for what she was as a tv character, but didn’t stand out much, either as a strategist or as a visual spectacle, compared to the remaining players.  Her hair was always on point, though.  Still, if that’s the best I can say about you?  Yeah, I’d rather let the more exciting people go to finals.  

Guess nothing interesting happened at camp, as we move directly on to our immunity challenge.  Let’s see, what do we have here?  Oh, it’s Simmotion again.  Ok, time to break out “Standard Matt Complaint #12”.  It reads: “This challenge is fine, but should never be the Final Immunity Challenge.  It lacks the grandeur needed, and is not physically demanding enough.  Bring back Hand on a Hard Idol.”  

We all got that?  Good, moving on.  

Unsurprisingly, Carolyn is out first in the challenge that requires “focus”, though Yam Yam being out second is a bit of a surprise.  He was shown taking the most care in when he dropped in extra balls, and somehow, this challenge seemed like it would fit his skill set, kind of like how the water torture one was a few episodes back.  But now, it’s a showdown between Carson and Heidi, with Heidi ultimately taking the victory, her first individual win of the season.  A big accomplishment for her, only to be undercut by her telling Probst IMMEDIATELY that she’s considering putting herself in fire.  

Look, it’s not that I don’t understand where Heidi is coming from.  As she notes, she doesn’t have a ton of accomplishments.  I even brought up myself that her resume is not as strong as those remaining.  A victory in fire is a big accomplishment.  But a victory in immunity should be bigger.  Not only did you beat four people instead of one, but you didn’t do it by making yourself vulnerable.  I know the show is pushing the narrative of “You need to take risks to win.” since it makes for better tv, but call me crazy, I find more impressive the person who MINIMIZED their risks rather than actively sought them out.  When Erik gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When Brandon Hantz gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When the entire Manono Tribe gave up immunity on “Survivor One World”, we lambasted it as a bad move.  So why not here?

I was never a big fan of forced Final Four Fire Making to begin with, but as the seasons have gone on, I’ve come to loathe it with every fibre of my being, and it’s mostly to do with the culture that’s grown up around it.  This idea that, if you win immunity, you HAVE to put yourself in fire making to have a shot.  That you have to ACTIVELY take yourself out of safety to be considered as a worthy winner.  That a move that, in a vacuum, is objectively bad, is somehow the thing you HAVE to do.  It’s incentivizing bad gameplay, and it’s not what I want to see.  

About the only time I can see such a move making sense is if the person you want out is good at fire making, and ONLY you have a shot at beating them.  And even then, I think it’s still a move that’s debatable at best, as perceived skill at fire making is subjective.  If you aren’t the best at fire, don’t put yourself in fire if you won immunity.  You still maneuvered the pieces where you want them.  That should be respected just as much, if not more, as winning in fire.  But no, as the show presents it, it isn’t, and I am pissed.  I am tired of people like Natalie on “Survivor Winners at War”, or Cassidy last season, being lambasted by the jury for NOT doing so, despite it being actively bad for their games to do so.  Granted, both had other reasons they shouldn’t have won (Natalie for being voted out first and only saved due to the Edge of Extinction, another twist I hate; Cassidy for burning too many jury bridges late in the game), but instead of these reasons, we get the fire-making problem trotted out, and frankly, I’m sick of it.  

Now, there is one major difference between Heidi and some of the examples I’ve provided.  Namely, Heidi is actually SHOWN to be good at fire.  Hell, in a nice bit of foreshadowing, it’s literally the first thing we saw her doing all season.  But it’s not like other people are slouches either.  Carolyn and Yam Yam are both shown to be decent at it as well.  Only Carson, the guy Heidi most wants out, is shown to be actively bad at it, in which case, good.  Let someone else take the risk, and you still get the outcome you want.  You maneuvered the pieces to the outcome you desired.  How is that any less respectable, or less good gameplay, than putting yourself in fire?

Also, I can only conclude that Carson’s 3-D printed fire does not translate to the island.  I kid, I kid.  Carson did indeed practice this, but the old-fashioned way, and again, can’t really fault him in that, even if it’s not bearing fruit here.  

For all my griping, I will say this does lead to ONE good scene.  Yam Yam, seeing Carson struggle, gives him tips on how to make fire.  This is a move that, as Yam Yam admits, might not be the best, since he could very well be put against Carson in fire, and be giving tips to the guy he loses to.  Once again, however, Yam Yam’s heart outweighs his logic, and helps anyway, just as a kind human being.  The pair bond, there’s a lot of hugs and nice words.  It’s a powerful moment, probably the stand-out one of the episode.  

Hey, Probst?  Notice how that moment DIDN’T need you commenting on how touching it was, and in fact stood up all the better without it?  Take notes.  

Our Tribal Council is really just an excuse for Heidi to reveal who’s going into fire, and to her credit, she is showy about it.  She first reveals that Carolyn is NOT going into fire, to which Carolyn is visibly relieved.  And, for all my complaints about Probst this episode, I will say this is one moment where he hits it perfectly in terms of hosting.  He does probe Carolyn with a few questions to get her to go more deeply into what she’s feeling, but doesn’t try to force the moment to be more than it is.  It’s good stuff, and if he goes back to more of this hosting style, I will retract my statement at the top of this blog.  

To no one’s surprise, Heidi reveals that Carson will be in fire, before doing the dumb and going in herself.  For all my complaints about this move in a vacuum, however, it’s hard to argue with the results.  Not only does Heidi decisively win against Carson, she even cracks Gabler’s record from last season, something Probst is quick to note.  Good for her on that front.  I still say it’s an unnecessary move, and not one that’s truly “smart”, but it cannot be denied that Heidi has an unassailable victory after this.  

Our finalists repeat their arguments for why they should win during the day 26 breakfast.  It’s mostly stuff we’ve heard before.  Heidi’s being the last Soka standing/taking out Carson, Yam Yam’s social game, Carolyn playing up the perception of herself to maneuver in the shadows.  That said, in another nice bookend to the season, Carolyn talks to the same producer she did to open the season, and again, we hear from him.  That’s a fun note to go off to Tribal Council on.  

The lack of individual jury questions has really made modern Final Tribal Councils all blend together, and this one is largely no different.  Carson’s expressions on the jury, particularly his indicating to Carolyn what the jury wanted to hear, are pretty much gold, but that’s about the only thing of note.  The jury is nice, but pretty toothless.  Nor do the arguments from our finalists really bear much mention.  All actually do a pretty good job arguing their case, using the tools and viewpoints we’ve seen before.  Heidi strongly advocates for herself, Yam Yam turns on the charm, and Carolyn brings up the emotion/gameplay divide, and articulates how she use her perception by others to her advantage.  Really, the worst gaffe any of them has is Yam Yam at one point saying “Emotions.  I have them.”, and even this gets played off as a joke.  

No, the real thing of note at this Tribal Council is, once again, Probst, who WAY oversteps his bounds.  When the new jury format was first rolled out on “Survivor Game Changers”, one of my main complaints was how Probst was too involved in the discussion, basically giving the criteria for what the jury should discuss in regards to a winner.  Felt too much like production interference in the jury’s decision making.  As time has gone on, Probst has backed of majorly in this area, limiting himself to ensuring the discussion goes on at a good pace, at most giving extremely broad categories the jury can define how they want.  Here, while he didn’t go full “Game Changers”, it did feel like he was more involved in what went into the categories than he did in recent seasons, and again brings up the stink of production having too much influence on the jury.  

But oh no, this is not Probst’s worst sin on the night.  No, that comes when Carolyn breaks down a bit when discussion turns to challenge performance, and she talks about how she kind of failed, since, you know, challenge performance was a weakness.  This COULD have been a gaffe, but Probst instead has to give us the perspective that her coming out and trying mean that she succeeded, rather than failed.  

Probst.  Buddy.  I like you.  I even respect a lot of your talents.  We have our disagreements, but overall, I think you’re a pretty cool dude.  So understand, it comes from my love of the show and the game, not anything against you personally, when I say the following:  

SHUT UP!  FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, THIS IS THE JURY’S TIME TO SPEAK, NOT YOURS!  THAT PERSPECTIVE YOU BRING IS VALID, BUT IT IS NOT YOUR TIME TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON THE PROCEEDINGS.  IF THE JURY AGRESS WITH YOU, GREAT!  LET THEM BRING IT UP!  IF THEY DON’T, THEN IT IS NOT YOUR PLACE TO DO SO!  IN INJECTING YOURSELF WHERE YOU DON’T NEED TO BE, YOU RUIN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A SOLID MOMENT FOR YOUR SEASON, AND COMPROMISE THE INTEGRITY OF THE GAME YOU CLAIM TO LOVE.  IF THERE IS TRULY ANY IOTA OF RESPECT FOR THE GAME, OR THE ART OF THE SHOW, LEFT WITHIN YOU, THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!  

Hoo, I feel better now.  Anyway, rant done, it’s all downhill from here.  We get yet another 7-1-0 vote, our fourth in a row.  Not sure what it is about the new era that brings that particular voting combination out, but it’s definitely progressed to the point of “pattern” by now.  Somewhat to my surprise, our victor is Yam Yam.  I’d have given Carolyn the best odds, given how well she articulated weaponizing the perception of herself, but she didn’t even make second.  Heidi earns the vote of her ally Danny, which I can understand.  Guess he respected her using him as a shield.  

And this is not to take away from Yam Yam’s win.  His social game was better shown than many, and he did make a very compelling argument about how he read the emotions of others to inform his game.  Not who I would have voted for our of the three, but given how late Heidi’s game picked up, and I guess how baked-in the early perceptions of Carolyn were, I can understand why things ended up the way they did.  Kudos to him; a win well-earned.  

I will say this: This season made the first compelling argument for the immediate after-show, rather than the live reunions of the past.  We mostly hit the highlights of the season one would expect (talking to our finalists, Matt and Frannie, all the early medical issues, etc.), and it’s all pretty standard in general.  But, not willing to let that plot point go un-exploited, Probst and production reveal that Jaime’s idol was a fake planted by Matthew, of course after going through all the steps and drama said idol caused.  Everyone’s reactions are delightfully raw and over-the-top; something you wouldn’t get at a live reunion where everyone knew already.  Now, does this mean I’m done with wanting live reunions back?  Of course not!  There’s ways you could have kept that live reaction in there even in the old format.  Say, film Jaime watching the episode where she finds the idol for the first time, then playing that.  Plus, then you could have Matthew himself talk about that play, rather than just name-dropping him and giving him a well-deserved toast.  So help me, I want to hear from the pre-jury, dammit.  

Our preview for “Survivor 45” is pretty standard.  Cast looks ok.  Not much to write home about.  The dude talking about his great-grandfather robbing the bank seems cool.  The young guy living with his grandmother might make for some fun confessionals.  But nothing that gets me hyped for the season.  Nothing that warns me off of it either, but maybe a bit sub-par compared to recent previews.  That said, I LOVE the logo for the season.  Colorful, but simple in design.  It stands out without being too busy.  Plus, it has an ominous air about it, mostly due to the logo featuring Osten’s nemesis from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, Pelican Pete.  

Before we get into looking back over my pre-season predictions, and seeing how accurate they were, I do want to touch briefly on the predictions I made in the last blog.  This is mostly because, contrary to what some might say, I think I was pretty spot on.  Nearly everything proceeded as I had foreseen it.  Really, there were only two things one could say I “missed”.  Heidi won final immunity, rather than my prediction of Yam Yam.  That said, I still kind of count this given that Heidi went into fire anyway, and that was more overall was the point I was trying to make.  Then I called Carolyn winning this final three, and… Yeah, ok, I take the loss on that one.  I was completely off on how the jury would see things.  Still, one inaccuracy in an otherwise pretty spot-on description?  I’ll take it.  Now, on to the individual predictions, and how they held up.  

Claire-Wrong.  In my defense, I DID say she could be vulnerable if her tribe went to early Tribal Councils.  I just didn’t think they would do so.  

Matt-Wrong, just straight up.  I didn’t overestimate his game sense TOO much, but regardless, he still hung on longer than expected.  

Carolyn-Wrong.  Far more game sense than I had anticipated.  

Lauren-Hung on a bit longer than expected, but I think I nailed how she would play the game overall.  

Danny-I could just copy and paste Lauren’s description.  I was maybe a bit too down on his game sense, but still fairly close overall.  Dude just stuck around slightly longer than expected.  

Heidi-Wrong.  Much quieter, and as a result much longer-lived, than I anticipated.  

Carson-Wrong.  Much better socially, and thus had a longer time in the game, than I anticipated.  

Maddy-Wrong, though for once on this list, someone I overestimated rather than underestimated.  

Bruce-Hard to say whether I nailed his gameplay or not, since we never really got to see it, but I did say he could be a medevac, so I’ll give myself this one.  Lord knows I need all the wins I can get this season.  

Sarah-Wrong, though in my defense, I couldn’t have predicted quite how much her tribe would implode.  

Matthew-I probably undersold his gameplay, but pretty much nailed his time in the game, and again, gave him as a medevac possibility.  I’ll give myself this one.  

Helen-Wrong.  Much worse at managing her threat level than I thought, and out early because of it.  

Josh-Not as wrong as some others, but shorter-lived and less good socially than I had thought.  

Jaime-Wrong on time in the game, but I would say dead on for personality.  

Kane-Wrong.  Just longer lived in general than I thought.  

Frannie-Apart from being an unexpected individual challenge beast, I’d say I got Frannie pretty well in my description.  

Brandon-Maybe a little underestimated, but I’ll call this one “right” for me.  

Yam Yam-In a season where my predictions range from “Kind of similar to how it went, if you squint” to “Completely, 100% off-base”, I’m pleased to say this is my one prediction that was absolutely right.  Weird how my early bet was actually better than AFTER I started watching the season.  

Speaking of, there’s been a lot of praise for this season, and rightly so.  A good mix of character and strategy, generally likable people throughout, and a post-merge relatively free of twists are all good selling points.  Alongside a strong aesthetic theme, this is definitely a good season.  A step up from “Survivor 43” in my opinion.  That said, I’d stop short of calling it “great”, as some are already doing.  This is definitely a season with more positive than negative about it, but there’s a couple of things that stop it from going that far for me.  A few, admittedly, are just nitpicks and/or extremely subjective points.  More gross-out humor than some other seasons.  My personal favorites going out pre-merge, leaving me with a back half that, while I didn’t DISLIKE anyone there, left me with no one I was particularly strongly rooting for.  

However, there are two big points that keep this out of the “Great” category for me.  One is that, while I appreciated the relatively twist-free post-merge, the slog between the mergeatory and probably the Frannie boot was confusing and frustrating.  Take the lesson, show: No major twists post-merge period.  The other, and probably the biggest issue, is predictability.  Individual episodes did ok with mystery, but the narrative made it pretty clear early on, or at least once we got down to three original Tika left, that one of them was going to win.  Not knowing exactly WHO, and those three playing a masterful game that was well-shown keep it out of the “bad” category, but it’s missing the uncertainty I feel it needed to be truly “Great”.  Hardly a bad season, though.  

Now we enter the long off-season, but don’t think you won’t be hearing from me at all!  Keep an eye out for more of the off-season content I so enjoy bringing.  More “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?” are certainly on the horizon, and if the mood strikes, perhaps something more…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 12: Illumination

Contrary to what you might expect, this week’s title does NOT refer to our spotlight-stealing-squad that is Carolyn.  No, this refers to Illumination Entertainment, the animation studio responsible for giving us everyone’s favorite annoying, walking memes, the Minions.  And specifically, I’m referring to said studio’s propensity for gross-out humor, something I personally didn’t want on “Survivor”, but this seasons is giving us in spades regardless of what I want, from Danny’s fart to Carolyn asking for a chocolate burp from Yam Yam this episode.   

Despite Heidi being in a position to be left out and upset, our post-Tribal discussion centers around Carolyn.  With the reveal that she had the Tika idol, which no one called (Yam Yam claims to have, but if he did, we never saw it.), everyone sings her praises.  She of course gets asked about the “Red X” thing from WAY back in the season, and she can’t help but tell the whole story.  She spins a good yarn about it, too, helping to assuage fears that she might not be able to sell herself/her game well at Final Tribal Council.  Perhaps realizing how big a target this makes her, though, she tries to downplay it, saying it was just her being crazy.  Absolutely zero people buy this.  About the person still the most skeptical is Lauren, and even she more says Carolyn has strategy under a crazy appearance than actually dismissing her strategy.  

While Heidi doesn’t outwardly say she’s concerned about her position, she is the first one up to look for an idol, assuming Carolyn’s was re-planted.  She’s not stealthy enough for Carson, however, and he alerts everyone else, leading to a mass idol-hunt.  While Heidi does have her own idol, she wants two to ensure she’s safe up until Final Four Fire-Making.  Fair enough.  She doesn’t find it; indeed no one finds it, at least that we see.  All we get is more confirmation that these people do not know proper idol-hunting technique.  So many hands blindly plunged into trees.  Poke in with a stick first, people!  Snakes are still a thing!  

Without idols, talk turns to strategy.  Having evidently realized their error in not breaking up the Tika Three before, Jaime and Lauren set out to do so now, hyping up to Carson and Yam Yam how much of a threat Carolyn has turned out to be.  They subtly hint that Carolyn should go, and Carson and Yam Yam agree to their faces.  Unfortunately, our narrator for this strategy is Jaime, and as the pattern of the season goes, Jaime must be wrong.  Thus, this plan is doomed to failure before it even begins.  

Sure enough, Carson admits in confessional that he wants to keep Carolyn around, which makes sense for him.  While Carolyn is a bigger threat, Carson is probably the one person left who can still beat her, and thus his concern is less “Who do I get to the end with?” and more “How do I get to the end?”  Keeping around Carolyn, who’s shown amazing loyalty to him thus far, and is an eye-catching target he can shield himself with, is thereby a smart move.  

Notice I only talked about Carson’s perspective there.  We’ll come back to Yam Yam.  

Our reward challenge is the Russell Swan Memorial Ball Roll, commemorating the man’s near-death in “Survivor Samoa”.  Not sure why we want that commemorated, since I know for a fact it turned at least one person off “Survivor” permanently, but since this challenge was also used last season, I’m guessing budget is a factor.  Honestly, the only noticeable change is a few branches tied to the top of each ball, which seems kind of pointless.  I guess it’s to make it look like the ball picked up debris in later shots, but it’s so obvious early on, that it seems more trouble than it’s worth.  

Our random division of teams this time gives the orange team, that being Lauren, Carson, and Yam Yam, an edge.  They have the best puzzle-solvers on their side.  They have the strongest people left in the game on their side.  And, perhaps their biggest advantage of all, they DON’T have Carolyn, who somehow managed to lose the ball when she should have had a fairly good grip on it, or at least a decent spatial sense of where it was throughout.  While the purple team does get to the table maze at the end (both Jaime and Carson, the callers for their respective teams, being ok being placed in a “Superman” horizontal pose rather than being rotated upright for some reason), orange easily beats them, earning a day at The Sanctuary, foot massages, and sandwiches.  And people say the rewards aren’t great in the modern era.  Please note the sarcasm.  

Yam Yam is happy to have basically anything, but Jaime is happy too.  Evidently Carson’s relative disinterest in getting rid of Carolyn did not go unnoticed, and so Jaime pitches to Carolyn getting rid of Carson.  She meets with basically the same result.  Carolyn says to her face it’s a good idea, but privately notes that while she does need to get rid of Carson, it’s too soon.  Again, can’t fault the logic here.  Carson is probably the only person left Carolyn DOESN’T beat, but as she’s such a big target, she probably does need a shield around.  If Tika breaks up now, even assuming Carson goes, Carolyn is probably gone next.  Hence, she should probably wait a vote or two before striking (I’m assuming Carolyn has a way to get Carson out at Final Four Firemaking).  

To help prevent any sort of counter-alliance, Carolyn offers Heidi a spot to split up the remaining old Ratu, which Heidi agrees with, partly because they voted against her last time, and partly because it would let her save her idol.  I’d say Heidi’s best interest is still probably to break up Tika, since she NEEDS to strike out on her own if she’s going to have a chance at the end of showing she had agency, but I can see her points here.  

All this is not to say those at The Sanctuary DON’T strategize.  Indeed, Lauren pitches them again the idea of getting rid of Carolyn.  It’s here that we get Yam Yam’s perspective.  Of the Tika Three, he’s the most receptive to breaking up the group now.  Which, again, makes sense.  What works in Yam Yam’s favor in the end is that he’s very sociable.  The show has done a good job of demonstrating that Yam Yam is well-liked, and he does have the argument of “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury.”  Working against Yam Yam is that, as the default decoy boot, you’re often seen as not having enough agency in your own game to be worthy of winning in the end.  Again, look at the case of Romeo on “Survivor 42”: It’s not that the man DIDN’T have any sort of argument he could make, and it’s not that he didn’t acquit himself well at Final Tribal Council.  It’s that by the time he got there, he was considered such a non-factor in the strategy of the game that no one was really willing to give him the time of day.  Yam Yam needs to prevent this at all costs, and breaking up the Tika Three shows that he had agency, and takes the people who might be considered to have “dragged him to the end” out of the equation.  It is risky, given that he would be an easy target at four in that case, but then again, with how many people say they want him in the end, he’s in as good a position there as he can hope for regardless.  Besides, better to go out at four with a shot to win than to make the finals against people you’re hopeless against.  

Upon his return to camp, Carolyn and Carson compare notes.  The pair mock the non-Tika for trying to break up Tika, saying they’re being too obvious about it.  I get where they’re coming from, but I think they’re a bit mean here.  I mean, what do you expect, everyone else to just roll over and let your tribe dominate?  I suppose that’s what they’ve been doing so far since the merge, but these players aren’t that stupid.  They might as well throw everything against the wall to form a crack.  At this point, what choice do they have?  

I know the individual immunity challenges have been nothing to write home about, but MAN this one is lame.  It’s the “Balance a ball on a plate between two ropes” challenge we’ve seen too much of by now, and it just not interesting.  To make matters worse, this group really stinks at this particular challenge.  Lauren and Heidi are the only two who make it through the first (10-minute) round, and Heidi drops pretty quickly into round two.  Lauren’s curtsey upon getting the necklace put on is nice, at least.  

Lauren winning immunity is a slight wrinkle in things, since Tika’s plan was to break up Ratu by sending her home.  That wrinkle is quickly ironed out by switching the target to Jaime.  Probably the least-strategic player left in the game at this point, but hey, it’s the one Heidi will accept, so we’re going with that.  Heidi for her part says she’d like to hold on to her idol, but will play it if she feels threatened.  This is also known as “Bog Standard Idol Confessional #5”.  

Thus it falls to Yam Yam to do the heavy lifting for misdirection this episode, ramping up his anti-Carolyn dialogue.  Yam Yam frames this as a duel between his heart and his head.  Do the strategically smart thing and get out a threat to better his own position, or keep a friend around at the cost of his game.  An old dilemma, but a solid one.  Basically the bread and butter of “Survivor”.  

Recognizing that with Heidi on board, he needs Carson to vote with him, he pitches the idea to Carson.  In addition to the “threat” argument already made, Yam Yam notes that Carolyn will be tough to take on in fire, stating that she practiced so much she was “bleeding”.  If this were about anyone else, I would dismiss it as hyperbole, but in Carolyn’s case that may be true.  With Yam Yam pitching the idea, Carson is considering it, as Carolyn’s a threat, but remains reluctant.  What’s interesting here is that Yam Yam and Carson NEED to vote together for either side to have a majority, but their interests are diametrically opposed, as I’ve already said Carson’s smartest move is to keep Carolyn, while Yam Yam’s is to vote her out.  I’d say if we’re trying to find the best compromise between the two, getting rid of Carolyn is probably slightly better, as Carson’s then eliminating his one true threat at Final Tribal, but again, I can see why he’d want to keep Carolyn around.  

In a rarity for misdirection this season, I don’t buy it for a second.  Yeah, sorry, this episode is about the only one this season where I would say the outcome is entirely predictable.  Perhaps they had no choice with who said what in confessional, but the big flaw here is making Jaime the driving force behind wanting Carolyn out.  You can’t spend all season building up how everything she says is wrong, only then to turn around and expect me to believe that one of her plans will actually work.  

It seems the quality of Tribal Council is inversely proportional to how much of a mystery the vote is.  To contrast with our completely obvious vote, we have a Tribal Council that’s actually exciting, emotional, and metaphor-free!  We start off with the reveal that, in anticipation of moving to a new camp for the last few days, they brought everything from their old camp, even the paintbrushes.  Lauren did most of the schlepping, due to her being immune.  Probst is amused, but I’m just sitting here smugly, waiting for him to tell me again how “unpredictable” this new era of the show is.  

A comedic amount of supplies is not the only good bit, however.  There’s come decent banter for once, and most of the talk centers around emotion vs. strategy.  Carolyn gives the thesis that one can play with emotion, while still being strategic, again subtly setting up her argument for the jury beforehand.  Smart move on her part.  Yam Yam then talks about the heart/head debate again, and even tears up a bit over it.  It tugs at the heartstrings, even predicting the outcome.  It may not be a legendary Tribal Council, but after they’ve ranged from “Blah” to “Extremely Blah” this season, I’ll take it.  

I can’t say that I blame Heidi too much for playing her idol.  With Lauren immune, and no faith on her end that the Tika Three would break apart, Heidi had a 50/50 chance of going.  Better to play an idol than to go out with one in your pocket.  Sadly, I do think this torpedos any chance she has of winning the game.  Heidi really needed to demonstrate here that she could make smart moves on her own.  While understandable, and getting some good reactions from the jury, Heidi didn’t negate a single vote, and has made herself more vulnerable at Final Five.  Plus, she needed all of Tika to leave before finals for her to have good people to argue against, and with this outcome, that mathematically can’t happen now.  

Yep, the predictable thing happened.  Yam Yam stuck with his heart, and Jaime is gone.  Overall, I can’t say I’m too sorry.  She was by no means annoying or anything, but the “Jaime is always wrong” storyline only has so much mileage.  Plus, she was the only one going into this episode who I would say had no winning finals combination (I would say Heidi is there as well now, but that’s as a result of this episode, not before it), so we keep the “best” players in the game, for want of a better word.  Really, the biggest downside to Jaime leaving is how predictable it makes the finale, something I’ll get into in a bit.  

Speaking about just this episode, I will say it’s very efficient.  Hits the strategic points, emotional moments, and challenges in a flowing manner, one logically leading to the next.  With the exception of the banter at Tribal Council itself, which I maintain is the best of the season to date, nothing really stands out about this episode.  It does what it needs to adequately, but not spectacularly.  An enjoyable episode, but not a legendary one.  

That said, it’s time for my traditional penultimate-episode PLAYER RANKINGS!  For the unfamiliar, I list out the players who are left, in descending order of who I think has the best shot at winning should they get to the end.  A reminder that this is assuming they GET to the end, not a ranking of how LIKELY they are to get there.  With all that said, this should come with few surprises, starting with my number one pick…

1. CARSON-As always, this spot is reserved for the person who wins outright assuming they get to the end, and this season, that person can only be Carson.  I can see arguments for Carolyn, but Carson, like her, has strategic accomplishments he can lean on (particularly in how he helped play Ratu against Soka), but doesn’t have the baggage of how he was perceived early on to overcome.  Everyone loves Carson, so he doesn’t have to worry about being beaten socially by basically anyone.  Should he get to the end, I see no downside that should prevent his winning.  

2. CAROLYN-Carolyn has really moved up in the rankings these past two weeks.  Her perception as “crazy” and “emotional” was the big problem initially, but Carolyn has been really proactive countering this narrative to the jury.  Playing an idol no one else knew about, seeding them that being emotional does not include playing strategically.  If Carolyn wants a shot at the end, she’s made all the right moves to do so, hence why she claims the number two spot.  It’s only the concern that that first impression may linger in some jurors that keeps her out of the top spot, but as long as she’s not up against Carson, I don’t believe it will be a deal-breaker.  

3. YAM YAM-Yep, the Tika Three take the top three spots.  We’ll get into that more in a bit.  For now, Yam Yam’s biggest strength, as I said, is that he’s well-liked.  He’s someone the jury would WANT to vote for in several situations.  What Yam Yam lacks is a strategic justification for that popularity vote, and while the social game is still king, you need to give the jury at least SOMETHING to justify it.  “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury” isn’t nothing, but pales in comparison to what Carolyn and Carson each have.  Thus, Yam Yam’s best hope is to go to the end with Lauren and Heidi, since they don’t really have any more strategic accomplishments than he does, and his social game would therefore stand out a bit more.  

4. LAUREN-Despite being fourth, I don’t see Lauren having NO shot at the end, but things will have to go exactly right for her.  She can make the “I was repeatedly targeted as a threat and still made it” argument, since many on the jury (particularly Danny) wanted her out at several points.  There’s also nothing to suggest any of the jury particularly dislike her.  Her main issue is that her strategic game pales in comparison to Carolyn and Carson, and her social game pales in comparison to all of Tika.  She needs Carolyn and Carson out, then needs to REALLY lay into Yam Yam at finals to have a shot.  Impossible?  No.  Unlikely?  Yes.

5. HEIDI-In contrast to Carolyn, Heidi has fallen the most in these rankings.  It’s a shame, too, as her game has been quiet, but when she’s not trying to make a move in the open, it’s decent.  She’s staying alive, and remains well-liked, so that’s something.  But she really needed to not face the Tika Three, and be seen as a driving force behind getting them out, to have a shot.  Without that, and with the blundered idol play (even if it was understandable) this episode, I just don’t see that happening.  

And that, really, is the one problem I have with this season.  We’ll see how the finale goes, but so far it’s been a solid season.  Likable characters, with a focus ON those characters, rather than twists.  Good theming, good mystery in general.  There’s a lot to like.  But, fascinating as it is to watch the Tika Three masterfully play both sides against each other, it does lead to a fairly predictable outcome where you know one of that group is going to win.  Granted, it’s still better than seasons like “Survivor One World” or “Survivor Redemption Island” where it was obvious from early on exactly WHO was going to win.  But still, marching to the end with almost no pushback does not an interesting finale make.  

I think the problem we face here is that the show is overcorrecting for the outcome of “Survivor 43”.  Recall that Gabler’s win was… controversial, shall we say.  Many people said his win came out of nowhere, and they didn’t understand it.  Probst, I believe, has even acknowledged that they may have hid his win too well, and took that into consideration for “Survivor 44”.  And in general, I think that was good feedback to take.  I know a lot of people have gone back over “Survivor 43”, and said they understand Gabler’s win better, but I disagree.  The flaw, to me, is twofold.  First, there’s the violation of “Show, Don’t Tell”.  I concede the win of Gabler was foreshadowed.  All his talk about being the “Alli-Gabler”, and “Hiding in plain sight” certainly hinted at that.  But while we’re told he COULD win, we’re not told WHY.  True, it was probably his social game, and Gabler would hardly be the first social-winner to be under-edited, but again, we’re just TOLD that part of his game is good, not SHOWN how it’s good.  The few times he does make a social bond, such as the “Ride or Die” alliance, it’s underplayed to the point that we forget it even happened.  What we remember is his over the top, messy public gameplay, not the little private stuff.  

That ties into the second problem in showing Gabler’s win: His early narrative was never countered.  The few times Gabler DID take strategic prominence in his season, it was threatening to use his Shot in the Dark unnecessarily, and being blunt about wanting Elie out.  While he did get his way, the way this move was executed did not scream “Subtle strategist”, and thus we the audience dismiss him in terms of winner contention.  That’s partly on us, but again, when half the show feeds us the narrative of “Gabler is a messy player”, it’s understandable why the perception from the viewing audience might be different than that of the jury.  Thus, the show wants to correct this, particularly if Carolyn ends up being the winner, since she could also be described as “Messy” in some of her early gameplay.  The winner was too subtle last time?  Make it obvious which group is dominant?  Winner makes some controversial moves?  Make sure we get insight into their strategic thinking as well to counteract that narrative.  Yes, particularly in Carolyn wins, this will all make sense, but again, I feel like perhaps a bit TOO much sense.  Perhaps I’m impossible to please, and certainly if push comes to shove, I will say this season is better than the last.  But it feels like they went from making the winner not visible enough to too obvious.  Somewhere in here there’s a middle ground, and I hope the editors can find it.  

I say IF Carolyn wins, but personally, I think it’s going to happen.  Hell, I’ll even predict how the finale goes once again: Lauren is out at 5.  She loses the immunity challenge, is feared for her challenge wins and respected strategy (as the assumed head of Ratu), and Heidi, happy it’s not her, jumps on board.  At Final Four, Yam Yam wins an unexpected immunity, and not wanting Carolyn to win any glory, sends Heidi and Carson to fire.  This has been foreshadowed for both, as Heidi started the fire for Soka back in episode 1, and Carson keeps getting shots of fire reflected in his glasses.  Carson completes his “Fallen Angel” arc by losing just shy of Finals, and we have a Heidi, Yam Yam, Carolyn final three.  As my rankings showed, Carolyn wins.  Possibly unanimously, though Yam Yam could pick up a vote or two with charm and a good performance.  

Hoo boy, for a pretty standard episode, this ended up being a long blog.  Let’s see how much the finale tops the length by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 11: Island Cosplay Tutorial

We’ve all seen more and more nerdy things enter “Survivor”.  Statistical analyses.  3-D printed puzzles.  The mere existence of Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Heck, this season alone with have Kane referencing D&D and “Star Wars” pretty much every other sentence.  Making clothes has also been a “thing” more frequently than you might think.  Sure we all remember Cody’s idol hat from “Survivor 43”, but let us not forget the trials and tribulations of Rupert’s skirt on “Survivor Pearl Islands:.  Yet somehow, despite all these factors, I never thought cosplay would enter into the show.  But here comes Carolyn, proving me wrong, providing an excellent tutorial on how to use random beach items to give yourself a headpiece and claws.  Bravo.  

Before we can delve into Carolyn’s “12 Secrets to Creating the Best Island Cosplay” tutorial, however, we have to have a brief announcement from our old friend…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Just a brief bit of irony that I forgot to touch on last time.  Frannie, while somewhat bummed at not being immune from the vote again, was still also excited to “Test her social game”, and see how it stacked up.  Trying to put a bright side on being vulnerable.  Admirable, but we now see how much her game was actually worth.  

Last episode, I mentioned that a downside to getting rid of Frannie is that you piss off Carolyn in doing so.  This week, we see precisely WHY this is a bad idea.  To say Carolyn does not take it well is an understatement.  Not good at hiding her emotions at the best of times, Carolyn makes it abundantly clear how hurt she is by the vote, particularly since her allies Carson and Yam Yam did not clue her in on it.  Yam Yam tries to get her to calm down, asking that she not do this in front of everyone, lest the Tika hand be revealed.  All true, but pretty rich coming from Yam Yam, the man who, admittedly to a slightly lower extreme, did the exact same thing when HE was blindsided in a vote from his allies.  Add another one to the “Irony” counter.  Trust me, it’s going to be going up a LOT this episode.  

After justifying his vote as him paying back Carolyn in kind for the Sarah vote earlier in the season, we see that Carolyn is not the only one with a chip on their shoulder for the past vote.  Danny received a mystery vote, and the suggestion that it may be Frannie does not placate him.  He is convinced someone threw a vote his way, and is bound and determined to ferret out who that might be.  To that end, he (admittedly in a pretty cordial way all things considered) questions everyone as to who threw a vote his way.  The once exception to this is Heidi who, as his ride-or-die, he is certain would never have voted for him.  Since the most ironic thing must happen in any given situation this episode, naturally Heidi was the stray vote for him.  She’s upset since she thought for sure he was going home (indicating Heidi may not have quite the strategic grasp on tribe dynamics that we thought), but also wisely decides to NEVER admit to Danny that she voted for him.  

Oddly, this is an exact parallel of the Lex van den Berghe and T-Bird Cooper situation from “Survivor Africa”, which is admittedly a fun storyline to go back to.  That said, man, I never thought I’d be talking about Lex so much when I started this blog.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decently fun character, but he’s not one of my all-time favorites, nor quite as significant to “Survivor” history as some others, so it’s surprising I keep finding reasons to bring him up.  

Morning brings calmer vibes, largely due to group meditation led by Jaime.  Everyone reflects on what they’ve gotten out here, leading Heidi to talk about her own past in flashback.  It’s a decent transition, but much as I hate to say it, Heidi doesn’t have much in the way of “tragic backstory”.  She does mention moving to the US from Puerto Rico, speaking no English, but apart from that, it’s pretty generic “I showed how tough I am in life.” sentiment.  Admirable, but not the most unique by a long shot.  

More notable from all this is that Carolyn has calmed down enough to make amends with Carson and Yam Yam.  Guess she really did just need some time after all.  Granted, she doesn’t have a ton of options, but still, good on her for burying the hatchet.  All that said, she still doesn’t trust them completely, as when asked directly, she denies having the Tika idol.  While she probably has more reason to trust these two than anyone else out there, but with how long you’ve kept it from them, best not to upset the apple cart.  Not unless there are very specific circumstances, which may or may not come up later this episode.  

The Tika Three, after kind of making a commitment to the Final Three together (they don’t say it out loud, but indicate they do want to stick together), debate how to make it through this round.  After all, this is the last round they’re outnumbered, assuming they stay tight together.  Yam Yam hits upon the idea of letting Danny know about Heidi’s vote for him, thereby breaking up the pair and creating a rift the tribe can exploit.  So Yam Yam does just that.  A good plan, assuming Danny believes him.  In the other trend of this season, that of “The Truth Not being Believed”, Danny doesn’t believe Yam Yam.  Admittedly, given how close Danny and Heidi have been thus far, I can understand it.  Far more plausible that Yam Yam is trying to break up that pair with lies, from Danny’s perspective.  Heidi lying her butt off only convinces him more, and gets him to realize “Hey, maybe we’ve been giving Tika too much power.”  You know, that thing Frannie said two episodes ago.  Oh well, better late than never I suppose.  

After the aforementioned cosplay tutorial, Carolyn has a bit in the water reenacting “The Little Mermaid” (her words, not mine), using that time to bond with Yam Yam as well.  They talk again about who they want in the finals, but really, nothing new comes of it.  The exception is Yam Yam giving us a fun little bit where he proposes three of his “multiple personalities” take up the spots.  Oh, Yam Yam.  You may not be strategically as good as you think, but damn if you aren’t hilarious!

Hilarious, but vulnerable.  Danny, in his newfound anti-Tika crusade, needs allies, and so goes to Lauren, being another regularly-targeted person to get on his side.  While Lauren admits in confessional that she doesn’t fully trust Danny, she recognizes that what he says makes sense.  The pair agree to go for Yam Yam for being too “nice”, and thereby difficult to beat in the end, which is logic I can’t fault.  I’d say Carolyn and Carson are even better targets (Carolyn to flush the idol, Carson because he’s good socially and also has puzzle skills for an immunity run), but hey, Yam Yam also makes sense, and the larger goal is just “Weaken Tika”, which this targeting does.  

Off to our immunity challenge, which, unsurprisingly, is “Last Gasp”, aka “The Drowning Simulator” first seen on “Survivor Palau”.  I say “Unsurprisingly” since the show now LOVES reusing major structures, and hey, if it was on last season, why not do so again?  Beats most of the repeat challenges, and at least there’s no puzzle, but I stand by this one not doing it for me as much as for others.  Once again, it’s largely down to me being very comfortable in the water, and thus not finding this quite as creepy.  That said, if there’s someone for whom the creep factor is very visceral, it’s Lauren.  Understandable, given that she’s been shown to not be the best in water challenges, and part of that is keeping your cool underwater.  She’s out relatively quickly.  Not as fast as Janu in the first iteration of this challenge, but pretty quick.  

Our two Puerto Ricans, Yam Yam and Heidi, end up duking it out.  Somewhat to my surprise, Yam Yam wins, leading to Danny comically jumping in the water to let him know when he can’t hear Probst.  Given the size of his face, I would have given Heidi the edge, just because she can stick her face through the bars further.  Still, good for him, and Yam Yam gets a nice moment to celebrate being athletic, a trait he evidently doesn’t share with his family at large.  It’s honestly a nice, effective scene.  I would have preferred we explore the discrimination against the overweight, and how that can affect people a bit more, but hey, the scene still works.  Plus, now we have drama with the main target immune.  

The Tika Three, correctly realizing that they were not successful in dividing Danny and Heidi, switch to a split between Jaime and Lauren.  However, everyone else is ALSO aware that this is the plan, with Danny saying that will be the decoy plan given to the Tika Three so they don’t get suspicious.  I WOULD get on Danny’s case for appearing to order it without consultation once again, but given that neither Jaime nor Lauren seem particularly mad when he says this, I’m going to assume this was a group decision he was just reiterating.  

Enough word of this gets back to Tika that they go to Jaime and Lauren offering to split between Danny and Heidi themselves.  This puts Jaime and Lauren as the swing votes, between Carson (the actual target of Danny with Yam Yam immune) and Danny.  For once, there is a clear “Right” and “Wrong” choice.  Carson is the correct person to vote out.  Don’t get me wrong, Danny will need to go at some point.  You don’t want him in the end with you, since he’s a likable guy who can say he made it despite a target on his back, and hasn’t made any real enemies (maybe Frannie, but even that’s a stretch).  But there are so many reasons to go for Carson instead.  I would list them all, but I don’t have to.  Jaime does it for me.  She says the Tika Three need to be broken up, and Carson is more of an immunity threat, given his prowess with puzzles, and the fact that he’s, you know, WON individual immunity, unlike Danny.  

Yes, take it in, folks.  Jaime said something that was 100% correct, with no caveats.  

Lauren does bring up trusting Carson more than Danny, which I can understand.  They’ve lived together longer, and actually voted together.  Even so, Jaime’s points are salient, and ultimately the better move, at least for this vote.  

Misdirection effectively neutered, we need something new.  Enter Carolyn and her idol.  Give the woman credit: She quickly recognizes that something is up, and sets about interrogating Danny.  Danny, in my view, actually does a pretty good acting job in denying it, but Carolyn smells trouble.  As such, wanting to keep Carson around (sensibly, since sticking with the Tika Three for now gives Carolyn a better spot in the game), she decides to play her idol on him.  NOW she tells Carson about her idol, and again, I can understand why.  By doing it now, she skips the “Oh, you kept something from me.” phase that would put her at risk, and have it be overridden by the “Thank you so much for saving me!” phase.  

Carolyn’s real dilemma, though, is who to vote for between Heidi and Danny.  Her fear is that if Danny plays an idol (and for all that I knocked her game earlier, it must be said that Heidi IS really good at keeping secrets, both with her idol and her vote against Danny), then the vote might bounce back against herself, and thus throwing a vote on Heidi might be smart, despite really preferring Danny.  Frankly, this should not be a dilemma.  Heidi should get Carolyn’s vote.  Either Jaime and Lauren are with you, in which case your throwaway vote won’t matter (save for possibly making Heidi angry, but at this point, a worthy safety risk), or they aren’t, in which case a safety vote is a wise decision.  Yet Carolyn is somehow conflicted as we head off to Tribal.  

Look, this has been a stellar episode.  Pretty standard in some ways, but we get a deep dive into the “Why” of each strategic move, and a good amount of time to just sit and let the players be people (something we’ll hopefully get more of now that 90-minute episodes will be the norm come next season).  All very good stuff, and all well-put together.  But the Tribal Council, while by no means the WORST, even by general standards, is just weak.  We are, blessedly, largely devoid of metaphors this time, but it’s mostly just generic strategic talk with little fun thrown in.  Admittedly there is one good moment wherein Carolyn gets rather aggravated after mishearing something that Lauren said, and then at Danny’s attempts to clarify the situation.  It doesn’t get inflamed, but DOES lead to her staring intensely at Probst, which freaks him out.  That’s always good for a chuckle.  

Carolyn agonizes in the voting booth, which, again, I don’t think she should be doing.  At first, it seems like she might have been agonizing over whether or not she needed to actually play her idol, since she waits until Probst gets to the “Okay” part of “Okay, I’ll read the votes” to do so.  Play it she does, though, and despite what the numbers will tell us momentarily, I don’t blame her.  That Carson was a likely target was a good read, and while this may show her hand a bit early as a strategic threat, given how long she kept her idol secret, it needed to be done, I feel.  Yes, she could have done a Maryanne (“Survivor 42”) and just revealed it at the end, but consider just HOW kooky Carolyn is perceived here.  The ONE reason there were any second thoughts on voting out Yam Yam or Carson was that Carolyn would be tough to deal with in the aftermath.  Not the look of a player well-respected strategically.  Unless you’re an orator at godly levels, you need to start changing that perception a bit earlier, and by the looks of the jury and the remaining players when Carolyn comes up to player her idol, she’s starting to do that.  It’s a risk, as again, she now seems a more appealing target than before, but one I think she needs to take to stand a chance at winning.  

So no, despite Carson not actually receiving a majority of the votes, I will not fault Carolyn this idol play.  I WILL, however, fault her for pulling an Aubry (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  Given my well-documented love for Aubry, you would think this would mean a good thing, and most of the time you’d be right.  Despite the fact that she remains my all-time favorite player, however, that does not mean I think she is flawless.  In particular, probably her biggest mistake was crossing out Julia very bluntly to write down Peter’s name instead right before the merge; a move so infamous most people avoid even the remotest possibility of doing so like the plague.  Those people are not Carolyn, however.  Admittedly, her idol play probably overshadows that particular reveal, so I don’t think the consequences will be as devastating for her as they ended up being for Aubry (and even Aubry’s I think were not played up enough in the moment given the outcome of the season, but that’s neither here nor there right now), but still, not the move of Aubry’s game to be copying, Carolyn.  

In the end, as mentioned, the idol play actually WASN’T needed mathematically, as Lauren and Jaime decided to vote for Heidi, meaning Danny would have gone home anyway (unless Carolyn had voted for Heidi, but if Carolyn had known they were voting that way anyway, she would have known not to play her idol, so I stand behind my logic for her not needing to agonize over this).  Danny TRIES to be memorable on his way out, giving some spiel to Probst about snuffing his torch.  Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t get it.  From what I’ve gathered asking around, he’s doing a Robert De Niro impression, but having never watched any of his films, I can’t say.  Doesn’t do it for me either way.  I’m mixed about Danny leaving.  He was definitely the bigger character of the targets tonight, but also not the most interesting strategically, and I can’t deny his character didn’t really “do it” for me.  All that said, it does leave Tika firmly in control, barring some break-up and/or idol shenanigans from Heidi, which is not that great.  

Possibly predictable season outcome aside, this was still a fantastic episode.  All the reasons I said earlier still apply: Good insight into strategy, good character moments, excellent humor.  The worst I could say is that the misdirection wasn’t the best (Carson got too little content for this to be his boot episode), and the Tribal Council was a bit dull.  The rest of the factors very much make up for that, though, and I hope this season can finish as strong as its buildup!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 10: Jedi of the Sea

I know that “Star Wars” day is not technically until tomorrow (and thus, in advance, May the Fourth be with you all, dear readers), and it does feel wrong to make this the title AFTER Kane left the game.  But hey, Carolyn’s son gave us a drawing of a narwhal.  That’s almost as good, right?  

Naturally, we start off on getting everyone’s reaction to the blindside of Kane.  Oddly, we start off with Frannie. Despite not being close to Kane, she’s not happy at being left out.  She notes, not unfairly, that she’s not particularly close with anyone left, and thus needs to start changing up her game fast.  Time will tell how well this actually goes for her.  

More circumspect is Lauren.  While naturally upset that the old Ratu is down to 2 players, the least of any original tribe, and that her extra vote is now gone, she mostly keeps it to herself.  She saves her irritation for confessionals, and resolves to try and make things turn around for herself and Jaime.  

Speaking of whom, Jaime is the one person Carson feels compelled to talk to about the vote.  And by “Talk to”, I of course mean “Lie through his teeth.”  Carson does a good job spinning to Jaime that the Kane vote was necessary, as he was spreading that she had an idol.  The truth, Carson notes privately, is that HE was the one telling everyone that Jaime had an idol.  Kudos to Carson for doing the smart thing, though, and throwing under the bus someone no longer in the game, thus meaning they can’t contradict you.  Jaime falls for this hook, line, and sinker, but is more upset about the loss of her “idol”, leading to the hilarious moment of seeing the “fake idol” part of her chyron slowly fade away.  Whatever flaws there are with the modern era, the editing jokes remain on point.  

Jaime tells us that now she’ll have to either come clean or find another idol fast, no doubt leading to fascinating maneuvering, and TOO BAD, CHALLENGE TIME!  Your standard obstacle course, this is the “Maryanne Oketch” tribute challenge, courtesy of “Survivor 42”, so named because it includes the obstacle to make you dizzy, which Maryanne memorably attempted to counteract by spinning in the opposite direction.  Honestly a pretty boring and forgettable challenge.  The reward is a trip to “The Sanctuary” for tacos and margaritas, both alcoholic and virgin, along with letters from home.  Way to bury the lead on that one, Probst.  Sure, who cares about surprise?  

It says something about how much interest I have at this point that rather than focus on the challenge itself, I wonder about a hypothetical scenario: Non-alcoholic drinks had to be offered because the show started allowing people 18 and up to compete.  This was done because contestants must obey both US law and Fijian law, with the stricter standard taking priority.  However, what about a Canadian who was younger than 21?  There are several provinces (notably Ontario, where the majority of Canadian contestants have come from thus far) that have a lower drinking age than the US’ 21, and they’re not on US soil.  Do they have to follow the US standard despite 2 out of the 3 relevant countries saying it’s ok for them to drink?  Seems like kind of a raw deal for the Canadian, should they want to imbibe.  

Frannie wins, her third individual win, as Probst is keen to remind us.  I’m sure this will in no way bite Frannie in the butt.  Frannie is also given the task of picking three players to come with her on reward.  Citing wanting the “moms” to get the letters from home, Frannie picks Carolyn, Lauren, and Heidi.  Not bad picks overall.  All have a good excuse outside of “strategy” as to being picked, and all have at least some potential to be allies of Frannie.  I would say that Carolyn is a bit weird, since Frannie last episode seemed to be anti-Tika, and she could have picked Jaime as well with little suspicion.  However, as we see that going against Tika is NOT Frannie’s long-term plan later, I’ll let it slide.  

Rather than follow those on reward, we first check back in at the Va Va camp.  Yam Yam is the most cut up about missing the reward, noting that he’s the only person left yet to go on one.  However, he’s more upset at missing the letters from home.  This gives the show and excuse to give us more flashbacks to Yam Yam’s life outside the game.  Not the most forced I’ve ever seen, but still pretty forced.  That said, I’m willing to let it slide since we get to see Yam Yam’s husband as a result, and dammit, they’re really cute together!  

The bigger story at camp is Jaime, though, how has evidently settled on the “Come clean” route.  I’d have gone for a bluff myself, but I can understand her logic.  With how often the idol makes you a target, there is a good reason to just admit to not having one.  Unfortunately for Jaime, however, she can’t win for losing, as despite the fact that she’s literally telling the truth, no one buys it.  They applaud her acting, noting that she’s out looking for an idol, but Danny in particular is dismissive of the idea.  I’m of two minds about this whole scene.  On the one hand, it is kind of funny that Jaime just keeps being so catastrophically wrong no matter what she does.  On the other hand, does she deserve it?  She’s by no means the best player, but she seems nice, and again, this sort of comedy works best on someone you want to see fail, which is not necessarily the case with Jaime.  

Over on reward, after Carolyn partakes in her virgin margarita (sobriety and all, understandable.  To clarify my thought experiment from earlier: It’s not that I don’t WANT there to be virgin options on alcoholic rewards, I just don’t want someone FORCED to take that option if it’s legal for them to choose otherwise), we get our letters from home.  We actually don’t see what Frannie and Heidi got, all our time being devoted to Lauren and Carolyn.  The former is the emotional moment, with Lauren getting a renewed drive to win for her kids, complete with flashback photos.  Again, kind of forced, but there’s been worse and the kids are pretty damn cute, so I’ll let it slide.  Carolyn’s is more for the comedy.  Rather than be in tears over her letters, she notes how tough it is to get her son to write, with the note he sent her being “The most he’s ever written” according to her.  Hey, kid’s got a career as an artist ahead of him, though.  That’s a pretty sweet narwhal drawing.  

Strategy talk does eventually return, with Frannie putting out the idea of getting out Danny.  Not a bad one, considering he’s the most active player left in the game, and yet also seems very set in his alliances.  Not his insistence on going against Ratu when it may not have been wisest to do so last episode.  Thus, if you’re not with him, you have little incentive to keep him around.  Lauren is, of course, right on board, mostly because any name that isn’t hers sounds good right now.  Heidi would seem like the least-inclined to go for this plan, since she and Danny have been seen to be close, but Heidi tells us that she and Danny have never made any commitment.  Carolyn’s also been working with Danny, but it does behoove Carolyn to keep the Soka/Ratu feud going, to strengthen the position of her and her fellow Tika members.  Plus, as she tells us, she likes Frannie, and thus was to work with her even if it’s not strategically the wisest move.  

We touch base back at camp, basically just to see Jaime come clean to those who were on the reward about her “idol” being gone.  They don’t believe her either.  Poor Jaime.  Can’t win for losing.  This brings us to our challenge, another repeat obstacle course drawing heavily from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, and thus earning my ire.  People being forced to crawl in the sand with hands and legs bound is at least more unusual that what we normally get, but still, nothing much to write home about.  Danny does do an excellent job on the obstacle course part, but as this ends in a puzzle, he’s stumped.  Yam Yam makes a decent comeback to get to the puzzle, though to me watching, it looked like Probst okayed him to undo his shackles despite not hitting the mat.  Carson, who admittedly also did pretty well on the physical part, ends up taking the win here.  Good for him.  

With Frannie being available to target, and so much conversation centering around her as a challenge threat, naturally Frannie is targeted.  Even Lauren, a supposed ally, is willing to go along with the plan, since again, she’s justifiably in “anyone but me” mode at this point.  This would then seem to be a simple “Danny vs. Frannie” debate, but no!  Paranoia about Jaime’s “idol” reaches an all-time high, with Carson in particular wanting to split votes between Jaime and Frannie, preferring Jaime as the target should no idol be played.  But even THIS is not enough!  We at first get what seems to be a pat “Maybe I’ll play my idol” confessional from Heidi.  Hardly anything to write home about, both because we’ve heard it before, and both because she doesn’t seem to be in danger.  But then Danny engages in frankly kind of a dick move for someone who’s supposed to be his ally.  He lets Heidi in on the “Get Frannie” plan, which is all well and good in and of itself.  However, rather than have it be a conversation, he just tells her that’s where the numbers are without, you know, telling her who those numbers are.  Strongarming someone is never a good look, and serves only to put a target on your back.  When that person is you ALLY?  Time to look for a new ally.  Heidi relays this information to Carolyn and Frannie, but since she doesn’t have the details, they come to the conclusion that Heidi is just snowing them, and intends to vote Frannie.  This galvanizes the pair to try and rally votes against Heidi, nominally roping in Jaime and Carolyn’s Tika allies to add in this cause.  

This, then, puts Yam Yam and Carson in the “swing vote” position, this time between four different options.  As always, let’s consider what the smartest move is here.  First things first, the only truly “Bad” move for these two from what I see here is getting rid of Jaime.  The last thing you want is to risk a tie with the remaining three Soka members down the line, and getting rid of one of them now should definitely be a priority.  Plus, the only reason Jaime is a target is because of an “idol” she does not have.  Can’t fault the players for not realizing that, but in a vacuum, there’s no reason to boot her.  Thus, Jaime is the only truly “bad” option here.  Speaking of things the players don’t know, the idol of Heidi’s that no one knows about makes her really the best target to go for at this juncture.  Even leaving that aside, there’s reasons to go for Heidi anyway.  She’s playing a smart, but subtle, game, and thus a threat down the line.  She’s friends with a lot of people, especially compared to Danny and Frannie, giving her more options, and thus making her a greater threat to your power.  Just below her is Frannie.  I’m not one to advocate a vote purely based on “challenge strength”, but Frannie has shown herself to be a good competitor in a variety of types of challenges, so for once it might be warranted.  Moreover, with Matt being the first jury member, you can bet that she’s being talked up to the jury, and thus may be hard to beat at the end.  The reasons to keep Frannie are that A: She has basically no firm allies at this point, and is therefore less threatening in that regard, and B: It will piss off Carolyn.  In the case of the latter, though, where is she going to go?  She won’t be happy with you, certainly, but with this group left, with a fair number of people with dug-in battle lines, it’s going to be hard for her to move against you anyway.  As for Danny, well, like I said, the main reason to boot him is his inflexibility.  You’re either allied with him, or not.  As Carson and Yam Yam fall into the “allied” category in his mind, well, no reason not to keep the super-loyal guy around.  Admittedly he does need to go at some point, given his frantic idol hunting and being a hog for the face of strategy, making him tough to beat in the end, but another round or two should be fine.  

For all my griping about how lame Tribal Councils have become, the last few episodes have actually been decent.  Sadly this one breaks that streak, being a bunch of meaningless nothing talks.  The only thing even REMOTELY noteworthy is that Jaime tells the truth about her idol again, leading to some pretty good exasperated reactions from the rest of the players.  Also notable that Kane manages to keep a good poker face about this, as he should as a juror.  

Yam Yam and Carson don’t ultimately make the smartest move here, but avoid a super dumb one as well.  Frannie goes home, and I am kind of sorry.  Not that she was my favorite player or the biggest character.  Indeed, it’s kind of unfortunate that most of her screen time got taken up by her relationship with Matt, only for her to relatively fade into the background until this episode.  But she seemed nice enough, and had decent strategic chops.  Really, the big reason I’m sorry for her loss would be because of the poetry of her making the end, given that she was a contributing factor to Matt’s ouster.  The star-crossed lovers, one the first juror, one potentially the winner, would have made for a great story, and it’s a shame that we’re deprived of that!  

I won’t say this episode was bad, but that’s because that would imply this episode made me feel any strong emotion.  Everything was done competently enough, but this was just BORING!  Good mystery, at least, but nothing we haven’t really seen before, and very by-the-numbers logic.  Not the worst, but I expect better from you, season!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.