Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 1: Fold in the Wolf

In the pantheon of “Survivor”, there are several epic episode 1 flameouts.  Zane Knight’s weird overplaying on “Survivor Philippines” is a prime example, but he’s hardly alone on Olympus here.  Let us not forget Jacob Derwin’s nerdy and obvious strategic flubs on “Survivor Ghost Island”.  And of course, there’s Garrett Adelstein of “Survivor Cagayan”, the man who played so poorly he was voted out over the person WHO OPENLY AND ACTIVELY SABOTAGED THE TRIBE!  And tonight, another joins their ranks.  Yes, it does make for an obvious first boot, but it was entertaining, so who cares?

We open up our episode proper to find that CBS has found yet ANOTHER cost-cutting measure!  Not enough for them to stay in Fiji until the heat death of the universe.  Not enough for them to stick with 26 day games.  No, now they’ve even outsourced the opening narration!  Instead of Probst (whom you have to pay) our intro into the dangers of the game is done by Tevin, one of the players (who presumably does it for free).  Will the cut corners never cease?  

I kid, I kid.  Probst does come in at the end, and to his credit, Tevin does an excellent job at the narration.  His fellow competitors even all get good moments leading up to the opening challenge.  We get a good look at Bhanu’s enthusiasm, and he’s even so kind as to throw in a “Slumdog Millionaire” joke.  Jess gets out a good line about being a twin and thus has been “competing for nutrients since the womb”.  Hunter gives us a bit about coming from a small town, and will thus have trouble connecting specifically with people who like Taylor Swift.  Not one to miss a chance at an obvious joke, we immediately cut to a confessional from Charlie gushing about how much he likes Taylor Swift.  Lucky for Hunter they’re not on the same tribe.  The joke is obvious, but no less hilarious for it.  Honestly probably the only weak link in these early introductions, if there is one, is Tiffany, who mostly talks about her job as an artist, and her accomplishments.  Not bad, but pretty standard for these sorts of confessionals.  What elevates her to “funny”, at least for me, is that she refers to art, and by extension herself, as a “Hustler”, making me think she got confused about what season she was on.  I kid, I kid.  Probably just an expression, but always funny to hearken back to the goofy themes of yesteryear.  

We get onto our opening challenge beach, with basically no mat chat this time.  Unless you count Soda bouncing around in excitement and going on about said excitement, which I do not.  Probst, however, does give a little speech about how there’s someone here who can’t win, just due to the composition of the cast, who thinks they can.  I kind of get what he’s going for here, but don’t entirely agree.  I’d say everyone might have an uphill battle, since the casting might not favor them, but everyone has SOME way to maneuver things to their advantage.  Still, the point stands that some people will have a worse hand, there’s no denying that.  

Probst then describes our challenge, which is… Kind of underwhelming, to be honest.  It’s like a scaled down version of the challenge Bruce injured himself on during “Survivor 44”, though without the cross-pieces, so less room for concussions.  Tribe members go two at a time under obstacles to retrieve puzzle pieces.  Three members then use said puzzle pieces to build a platform for one person to get a key off of a pole.  First tribe to finish gets a pot, machete, and flint.  For the other two tribes, we’re back to “Survivor 44” rules about “Sweat vs. Savvy”, in that second place picks which one of those tasks to do, leaving the last place tribe to their fate.  Frankly the superior way to do it, so I’m not complaining.  The challenge itself is fine, and I know that first challenges are not the biggest spectacles, but still this one just feels small-scale.  Not the epic contest I was thinking of.  At least the puzzle leading to a platform rather than a cube is different.  

Out of the gate, we see that it’s not physical strength that’s going to divide these tribes, but puzzle ability.  All get through the physical portion at roughly the same pace.  There’s a few stand-outs who carry puzzle pieces on their own, specifically Hunter, Tiffany, and Maria, but apart from maybe Hunter, no one who’s going to blow the competition out of the water physically.  But ooh, the puzzle.  Only Nami, the orange tribe, seems to know what they’re doing, with both Yanu, the purple tribe, and Siga, the green tribe, seeming confused by a puzzle that shouldn’t be THAT complex.  The race for second SEEMS like it might be tight, but then Siga eventually gets their act together, while Yanu still seems lost even AFTER Jelinsky jogs over to copy Nami’s completed puzzle.  In fairness, Yanu was farther away from Nami’s puzzle than Siga was, but still, not that complicated guys.  

So Siga must pick whether to do Savvy or Sweat, sight unseen of what it is.  Now, if I’m Siga, I’m thinking that it’s best to force Yanu to do “Savvy”, since we just saw them choke pretty hard on the puzzle.  However, they decide they want Yanu to be more physically worn out, and so elect to do “Savvy” themselves.  I guess I see the logic, but I still think I’d have gone the other way for the reason mentioned previously, though I suppose Siga was the team that was slightly behind on the physical portion of the challenge.  

From here we’d leave to go do our tasks, but there is the note leading us to commercial that bears mentioning.  We hear from Jem, about the only time we hear from her this episode, apart from when we’re detailing the alliances at Siga.  She talks about how, while others are here for the experience, and that’s fine, she’s here for the money.  That, to me, is a winner quote.  If so, I’m very happy, since I called her win pre-season.  Then again, I also thought Emily had a winner quote last season, and we see how well that turned out.  

Yanu finds that their task is a bit of a repeat for “Sweat”: Two tribe members must haul water from the ocean up around the timer to a pair of buckets, which they must fill in a four hour time limit.  To add insult to injury, they quickly learn the buckets have holes in them, though lucky for both there’s no rule against covering the hole as they run, which they quickly do.  Q and Jelinsky, being the two physically strongest, set about doing the task, as Q gives inspirational talks about this being a team, and him “quarterbacking” the game.  Time will tell if he’s able to do that.  

As for our “Savvy” task, it’s less “Puzzle” and more “Riddle” granted there’s a combination lock for the end, but the clue makes a specific reference to “What you’ve overlooked.”  Our puzzle-solvers, Ben and Charlie, do eventually pick up on this, but they instead think it means to look under the table the lock is on, instead of the actual answer.  They had a word search where they found numbers (too many to work in the combination lock), but instead had to look at what letters weren’t used, which would have told them to dig under the lock to find the combination.  A pretty easy puzzle, in my opinion, but I can also see their logic, so I won’t fault them too much this mistake.  A tight time limit combined with this error leads to their failure, though both bond over it (Ben joking about them getting “Rocked Out”), and their tribe seems to take it in stride, so individually they’re probably safe.  

Nami is, naturally, a lot more happy-go-lucky due to winning.  Despite this, they are also the first tribe to have a visible crack.  Liz mentions that she’s bought and sold companies in her work, strongly implying that she has money.  This is something Tevin quickly picks up on, though it’s mostly filed away for now.  

Less happy is Jelinsky, who feels ripped off by the note for the “Sweat” task.  It says “several” hours, which in Jelinsky’s world means “seven”.  Not sure what world that is, but as we’ll soon see, Jelinsky is often an island unto himself.  Now, Jelinsky does have Q, who is quickly becoming a candidate for “Best Team Player Ever”.  Q is clearly feeling the strain of the task, but continues to persevere.  He sticks with Jelinsky, giving him words of encouragement… Only for Jelinsky to have them call it off not even halfway through the challenge.  Look, closer to the end I would get it, but at least put in more of an effort so the rest of the team isn’t pissed at you!  

Jelinsky does end up forcing the quit, dramatically throwing the hourglass away.  Nice cinematography, but a bad look for your tribe.  Still, Jelinsky says it doesn’t matter because he gained a new ally in his bond with Q.  This is immediately undercut by Q rightly pointing out that Jelinsky is someone who’ll give up, and thereby is probably an unreliable ally.  Quite the brain trust, our Jelinsky.  

From here we get the usual introduction to some of our key players, as well as an overview of tribe dynamics.  These are intercut with each other, jumping from tribe to tribe, but for brevity’s sake, since the exact order of these events doesn’t really matter, I’m just going to go tribe by tribe, only mentioning scene breaks where relevant.  

Yanu actually ends up the simplest here, since we got a good look at some of the dynamics with Jelinsky giving up, and Q’s reaction to it.  Kenzie talks about how being a hairstylist helps her to read people, and we see she’s quickly become the focal point of the tribe, pulling in Q, Jelinsky, and Tiffany to make a majority.  Not sure how stable a majority that includes both Q and Jelinsky will be after that last scene of them, but hey, stranger things have happened.  Bhanu is not explicitly brought into the alliance, but seems to get along okay with everyone, gleefully helping them open coconuts sans machete.  

No, Tiffany makes it clear that Jess is going to be their first target.  Both she and Kenzie try to talk to Jess, who comes off decently friendly, but much more closed than the otherwise very open tribe.  Jess admit’s she’s introverted, and that combined with recently diagnosed ADHD is making it harder to connect.  Neither an insurmountable obstacle, but Jess is clearly in trouble early on.  She needs to hope Jelinsky or someone else (but really, from what we’ve seen, is there even a CHANCE it’s anyone else?) royally screws up to give her time to come out of her shell.  

While not relevant to strategy, I should mention that Jelinsky tries to nickname the alliance of himself and Kenzie “Shaggy and Daphne”, based on looks alone.  All I can say is I’m glad that name didn’t catch on.  I like a good “Scooby-Doo” reference as much as the next guy, but that was WAY too forced.  

Siga has more content than Yanu, but probably the most simplistic of the three in terms of tribe dynamics.  It’s your classic “three pairs of two” mixed with a gender division.  Initially we get people paired up, with Ben and Charlie being the obvious one due to their bond over attempting the “Savvy” task.  Tim and Maria bond over being parents, though Maria does admit she doesn’t want to be the “mom” of the group, due to the potential negative connotations that can bring.  That just leaves Jem and Moriah, who thankfully are not just spares, but do bond over their neediness.  Moriah in particular talks about being a D&D fanatic, and how she needs to work to open up to people.  A nice little scene, but we don’t really know which twosomes will become a foursome to dominate.  

It soon seems like the answer will be “None of them”, as Moriah and Jem pitch a women’s alliance to Maria, which she seems decently on board with.  The three discuss which man to pull in to make a majority, and while you’d expect Maria to pitch Tim, they actually decide on Charlie, since he seems like a nice guy who might be easily led.  Paired with his confessional about living in the bubble that is small-town Massachusetts, they might seem to be right.  Charlie, however, expertly plays both sides; going along with the women while also tipping off the men, setting Tim on the warpath against the women.  The same old “Fear of a Black Widow Brigade” we’ve seen before, though at least more founded in this case, since Tim was at least WARNED of such an alliance possibly coming together, rather than just assuming it would and going off half-cocked.  

Nami doesn’t have as many “formal” alliances, more good vibes and bad vibes.  Tevin bonds with Soda over their love of singing, and gets in a good Shakespeare reference in the bargain, endearing me to the guy all the more.  This would seem not to bond Hunter, who admits that when he worked as a camp counselor, the one thing he hated the most about camp was the songs.  However, Hunter does an excellent maneuver here, admitting this division to Tevin, but turning it into a bonding opportunity, asking him to teach Hunter to sing.  When the pair discover both love “The Andy Griffith Show”, the alliance of the same name is set.  Fittingly, and hilariously, “Survivor” then turns black and white, goes to an old tv aspect ratio, and plays the whistle from the beginning of the theme song from Andy Griffith.  These guys just don’t miss an opportunity, and I again must praise Hunter for turning a weakness into a strength.  That takes a lot of good maneuvering, but it seems Hunter has what it takes.  

Not all is sunshine and rainbows for Nami, though.  We already saw the issues Tevin had with Liz, but she is not the only target of ire.  Venus is next, taking offense (not unfairly) to being described as a “princess”.  Rather than try and prove herself around camp, or using social bonds to counter this perception, she goes idol hunting.  Because that never ends badly for anyone!  Sure enough, she’s quickly caught by Randen.  Both do a bit of “I know you know I know” side eye before Randen comes and spills the beans to Soda.  He’s only honest with her, but this is “Survivor” where people absolutely shoot the messenger!  And on the tribe all about vibes, unsurprisingly the person whose only family said he gave off “First Boot Vibes” is not gelling well.  Soda decides she mistrusts Randen more than Venus, and so tells the latter about the former.  Not as clear dynamics as the other tribes, but at least it’s something.  

It’s also Nami who leads us into our journey.  Liz makes her case for being a good tribunate slightly worse by listing off foods she’s allergic to (which basically amounts to “everything”.  Geez, and my parents thought MY eating habits were tough to deal with growing up), but is interrupted by a boat coming to take someone on a journey.  Nami decides randomly, leading to Tevin going.  Siga decides via rock-paper-scissors, leading to Maria going.  As for Yanu, Jelinsky basically volunteers, and despite evidence indicating he is NOT the person you want interacting with other tribes, and Bhanu clearly wanting to go as well, they pretty much just let him.  As we’ll soon see, this was indeed a poor choice.  

Our threesome get to a sand spit, where’s there’s a new game in town.  There are three wooden tiles, one with a torch, one with a vote, and one with a skull.  These get shuffled and randomly dealt to each player.  The one who gets the torch reveals it, then must figure out based on reads which of the other two got the vote tile.  Guess right, both of them get an extra vote, while the person with the skull loses their vote.  Guess wrong, the person with the skull gets an extra vote, while the other two lose their vote.  

Now, at first glance, this doesn’t seem to bad.  Different from the journey’s we’ve seen before, and a simple, easy to explain ruleset.  Sadly, if you think about it a bit more, this journey kind of sucks.  The issue is that it kind of ends up boiling down to luck, since whoever gets dealt the skull tile is screwed.  If they tell the truth, well, you’ve lost your vote, and your tribe will probably be mad at you for giving up power to the other teams.  If they lie, even in a best case scenario in which they fool the other players there, congratulations!  You’ve now pissed off people on the other tribe and exposed yourself as untrustworthy!  Better outcome in the short-term, but probably trouble in the long-term.  

Now, some might argue that potentially pissing off other people is a known risk to these journeys.  That’s true, but the difference here for me is that that potential pissed-off-ness is based on one’s DECISIONS in those other instances.  You CHOSE to lie when you didn’t need to.  You CHOSE to risk your vote, or take something else that others didn’t want.  Here, as I’ve explained, you can just be dealt a bad hand and have no good outcome.  No matter what, someone’s going to be pissed.  

Given that Jelinsky is the one who gets the skull tile, he actually manages to somehow find the WORST of both worlds!  He initially lies, only to come clean under the slightest bit of grilling from Maria (who got the torch).  Congratulations!  You’ve now shown you’re untrustworthy, AND lost your vote, AND given the opposing teams more voting power down the line!  Aren’t you proud of yourself, Jelinsky?

After a brief interlude where we see that Maria came clean about everything to her tribe, thereby pissing off Tim since the women’s alliance now technically has the numbers (no word on what Tevin said to Nami), we see that, sure enough, Jelinsky’s tribe hates him to.  This again reinforces the narrative that he just can’t commit.  Bhanu, however, is still optimistic.  Fitting for a guy whose shirt reads “Be Kind”.  A nice sentiment, but is that really what you want on “Survivor”?  In either case, Bhanu’s excitement boils over into an idol hunt, though not a very good one.  Dude doesn’t look much off the beaten path, even just picking up a large, hard-to-miss rock to try and find the thing!

Ok, to be fair, the idol IS under a rock, just a more inconspicuous one.  Tiffany manages to find it under a large rock outcropping, running off to read the note only to be told to dig where she found the note.  She does so, and finds a box with an idol in it that needs a key to open.  Where is the key?  She only gets that information if she goes to Tribal Council.  Gotta say, this is an interesting wrinkle that I kind of love.  It weirdly incentivizes someone to throw a tribal challenge, lest they be swapped away without a vote.  Sacrificing the group good for the individual good.  It’s a sadistic dilemma, even if it doesn’t reach its full potential here.  

See, Tiffany doesn’t really need to do anything, since Yanu is most likely to lose this challenge anyway.  Apart from them being visibly the worst at puzzles this season (with puzzles so often the deciding factor in challenge wins or losses), Yanu has by far the most obvious targets.  We know a little bit about each tribe, a strength of this season opener, but Yanu has the clearest divisions and the most bluntly stated targets.  A loss is all but assured.  

Tiffany lets Q and Kenzie know (the latter having been present when she initially found the idol box), so they can muster their votes before the inevitable loss.  This bring us to said challenge, which is decent in scale, but still feels off.  Tribes transport a 500 lb. Gecko over a series of obstacles, then solve a puzzle.  Standard, but does have the scale (pun intended) one would associate with the first immunity challenge of the season.  That said, the Gecko itself looks kind of goofy, and throws off the whole feeling of grandeur for me.  Look, it’s not like the “Transport heavy, awkward object” challenge is a new thing for the show.  Its first iteration was on “Survivor Thailand”.  But other times it’s been done, it’s been later in the season since, for all the difficulty, the image of transporting a giant, heavy thing is kind of goofy.  That works for other challenges, but here, it feels like it undercuts the gravity of the situation.  A fine enough challenge, just not one I’d want as the first challenge.  

I will say that our immunity idols are cool this season.  Little Japanese-style statues.  Unique in design, and have just the right feel of what you’d expect from an idol.  About my only complaint is that they once again have an idol and a smaller idol, rather than one idol that can split in two, and even that’s a very minor complaint from me.  

Unsurprisingly, Yanu loses.  Nami gets out to such a lead they practically finish before the others get there, and when Siga pulls ahead prior to the puzzle, you know Yanu’s done.  Granted they do better than Luvu last season, since they at least make it to the puzzle, but again, this is very clearly not Yanu’s strong suit.  To make matters worse, they put Jelinsky on the puzzle, and this after he admitted to quitting the “Sweat” task in front of the other tribe.  You’d think they’d have learned by now.  Yanu commiserates after the challenge, but notably Q does not get in on the group hug initiated by Bhanu.  Doesn’t seem like anything now, but it’s a subtle clue I’m keeping an eye on for future episodes.  

About the only person not unhappy is Tiffany, who now gets the next clue to her idol.  She gets a note written in a simple symbol code.  Where’s J Maya (“Survivor 45”) when you need her?  No, Tiffany solves it very easily herself, and it tells her to go to the Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM) from “Survivor 44” and find a key under a rock in the shallows.  She does, and gets and idol, as well as her vote back.  Good for her.  

This brings us to the discussion of who to target.  Tiffany is very on board with voting Jess out, citing her as the weakest in challenges.  Kenzie is sort of passively on board, and Bhanu just likes everyone, and doesn’t know what to do.  Only Q is really pushing for a Jelinsky boot, citing his repeated giving up on things.  

In this case, I would say Q is right, and not just because I like the guy.  Look, I’ve never been a subscriber to the idea that voting someone out makes your tribe stronger.  “Addition by subtraction” just doesn’t make sense.  That said, I can at least see a bit of the logic from the stance where some challenges are “Only as fast as your slowest member”.  That, however, refers to purely physical competitions, not mental ones.  Physically, Yanu can at least keep up, even without Jelinsky.  Where they struggle is the puzzle, and no one seems to be good at those on this tribe.  Sadly for them, that’s not a problem they can really solve, so all they can do is hope for a swap and/or challenges without puzzles.  Given these factors, better to get out the guy who seems wishy-washy, and stick with those you can trust.  Even if they haven’t been the most open to you.   

Because this episode just hasn’t shit on Jelinsky enough (and were it not a spoiler, this blog would absolutely have been titled “Everyone Shits on Jelinsky), we are also treated to a scene where he seems to have an accurate read of the situation, telling Jess it’s one of the two of them due to both being on the puzzle they lost.  In confessional?  Jelinsky says it’s Jess 100%, and he was just trying to prevent her playing a shot in the dark.  Delusion, thy name is Jelinsky.  

Keeping with the Japanese theme of the idols, our Tribal Council set is a bunch of pagodas.  Very grand and epic; I approve.  I could complain about how that has nothing to do with Fiji, but at this point, that’s not a battle worth fighting.  

Less impressive is the performances at Tribal Council.  They’re not bad, but nothing to write home about.  Jelinsky gets in some good deprecating humor, Jess’ ADHD is on full display to the point where she forgets how to spell her own name, and the tribe gets several moments of correcting people’s accounts of events.  Bhanu probably gets the highlight, dodging Jeff’s question about whether Jelinsky is going by saying “It’s time to vote?”, but still, nothing that rocks my socks off.  

While the edit does favor a Jelinsky exit, there’s enough misdirection here that. Jess boot is plausible.  Still, it does end up being Jelinsky, and I’m not too sorry.  Look, he seems like a nice kid, but out of his league in this game, plain and simple.  His storyline about giving up on everything was funny, but could have gotten old in longer doses.  Better to just keep him a one-episode-wonder, along the lines of the aforementioned Zane Knight.  

As Jelinsky said, when in Vegas, you gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.  For Jelinsky, it seems the latter is “all the time”.  

This episode started out just ok, but really grew on me as it went along.  The “Jelinsky fails at everything” narrative was a good one-episode story arc, and this cast really popped.  Odd considering I wasn’t wild about them pre-season, but I think this is a case where they just didn’t do well on paper.  On my tv?  A lot of fun personalities without being too over the top, and I look forward to seeing where they go from here!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Cast Assessment

Folks, I have an important announcement to make: Not only do we have the newly-officially-released cast of “Survivor 46” to discuss today, but the production team have also given us a rare peak behind the curtain.  A glimpse at the inner workings.  We now know the key factor it takes to get cast on this show.  The answer is: Be a gutsy idiot.  

Yes, do you value stability in your life?  Do you feel like taking the safe route when it comes to your personal finances?  Good for you, but get out of the applicant pool!  We only want people who throw away something they’ve worked toward on a wing and a prayer here!

I mock, I mock, but I do so out of love.  Honestly, good for all the people on the cast who did this.  Clearly if worked out for them, and if they’re happy (and not harming anyone in the process), then power to them, I say.  And certainly “Survivor” is no stranger to casting people like this; the list of people who’d taken major risks like this in their personal lives is innumerable for this show.  But this season really feels like they amped that up, or at least put emphasis on it.  Nearly everyone in their bio talks about changing their job to follow their passion.  Again, fair enough for them, but a bit on-the-nose as far as casting goes. Now then, snark out of the way, onto the assessment itself, starting with:

Jemila “Jem” Hussain-Adams (32, International Brand Mentor, Chicago, IL, Siga Tribe): I personally am not a fan of doing such things myself, but were I to ask an AI to write me up a “Generic Survivor Contestant Biography”, I feel like Jem’s is what it would give me.  Someone fun-loving and social.  Says they’re not interested in something if it’s not risky.  Did a fair number of extreme outdoor activities.  Lists as similar players “Boston Rob, Tony Vlachos, Kelley Wentworth”, aka “The relatively famous players most people will know by now.”  Very much gives the impression of someone semi-familiar with the show, but not a superfan.  I know this is making out Jem as someone who’s kind of bland and can’t hack it, but sometimes this stuff is all you need.  Hence, we are getting my first winner pick of the season out of the way early.  Jem does have a few specific things going for her related to her bio/photo.  She grew up in Berbice, Guyana, and her discussion of it implies that she spent at least part of her adult life there. Thus, she might be more used to the tropical climate of Fiji than we might otherwise credit her.  Based on the photo, she doesn’t look like she’ll be a challenge liability, which is always a plus.  But really, I’d say her biggest upside is that she doesn’t seem to have a major weakness.  For all the comparisons she makes, I’d compare her to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” winner Michele Fitzgerald the most.  Specifically, it’s not that she stands out, or does anything spectacularly well, but that she does nothing badly.  She’s not a challenge beast, but not weak enough to be taken out specifically for that.  She’s not a shy introvert, but not a loud, over-the-top personality either.  This season doesn’t skew quite as young as other recent ones, but has a lot of people in their “late 20’s, early 30’s”, and Jem slots right in that demographic nicely.  She’s not a game-bot, but she knows the strategy well enough to get by.  And sometimes, getting by is all you need.  Honestly, the biggest weakness of this type of game is that it can falter if the team goes to a lot of early Tribal Councils, but while there is no “disaster tribe” this season, based on the rumored divisions, there is a “strong tribe” of the season, and I see Siga rarely, if ever, going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  This gives Jem all the time she needs to integrate, and by the time of the merge, there’s bigger fish to fry.  Expect her to unexpectedly sneak to the end, only to give a banger performance at Final Tribal Council, and then sweep up far more votes than those with her would have expected.  

Ben Katzman (31, Musician, Miami, FL, Siga Tribe): Ben compares himself to Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Cody Assenmacher (“Survivor 43”), but like with Jem, I think he misses the mark on the true comparison.  If there is a second coming of Vince Sly of “Survivor World’s Apart”, it’s this guy.  You all remember Vince, right?  The “Coconut Vendor who Seeks Truth”.  Yeah, that over-the-top character.  The beachy guy who quit a job (in this case, more professional music production) to follow his dream (in this case, just making the music he wants). Transplant Vince from the west coast to the east, and you’ve basically got Ben.  Luckily for Ben, he seems like enough of a challenge asset that, in the unlikely event that his tribe goes to Tribal Council pre-merge, he won’t be a target despite his potentially grating personality.  That said, don’t expect him to get too far.  That personality can get old fast, and while he might survive mergeatory, don’t expect him to get much past that.  An early-merge boot due to just being difficult to live with, and if there’s another “split tribal right after the merge”, I’d say that’s where his game runs out.  

Jessica “Jess” Chong (37, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Yanu Tribe): I feel for Jess, I really do.  She seems very nice, and not quite as over-the-top in the whole “career change” thing as others this season (yes, she did change jobs, but she stayed in her field, just working for herself rather than a corporation).  She even has good self knowledge, comparing herself to Tai (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), Gabby (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), and Maryanne (“Survivor 42”).  All players I quite like.  However, despite all their good track records, they are not necessarily the formula for success on “Survivor”.  Aside from there only being one winner out of the three, this is a personality than can be hard to live with, particularly on small tribes, and unfortunately, Jess doesn’t have the luxury of being on the tribe unlikely to go to Tribal Council.  Honestly, I think her time in the game is largely going to depend on how well she individually does at challenges.  I don’t think she’s first out of her tribe either way, but if they go on a losing streak, she’s an easy pre-merge casualty.  If she only attends one or two pre-merge Tribal Councils, and doesn’t cost her tribe any challenges, then she probably makes a deep late-merge run.  Kind of a wishy-washy answer, I know.  If you put my feet to the fire, and force me to pick one, I’d sadly have to say that Jess is probably a pre-merge boot, though less due to her own faults, and more due to some people just needing to go there, and there not being a lot of obvious pre-merge fodder amongst this cast compared to some other recent ones I could name.  

Bhanu Gopal (41, IT Quality Analyst, Acton, MA, Yanu Tribe): So remember how I just said it was difficult to figure out who the pre-merge boots were this season?  Well, that goes double for predicting the first boot.  Seriously, this is the hardest time I’ve had selecting someone to be the first boot in these predictions.  Usually SOMEONE jumps out, or gives off that vibe, but this season?  I can only rely on the data, and sadly, Bhanu has a lot of data points working against him, in my view.  I’ll credit him that he’s one of the few who DOESN’T mention upending his career in his biography, which I would say would lead to more stable, consistent gameplay, normally a good thing.  But this career upending is SO pervasive this season, that I’m not sure that style of play is going to work.  In fact, it might work against Bhanu here, since his philosophy on life is so different from most of the rest of the cast.  Again, it could work given time, but time is not something I feel comfortable saying this tribe has.  Add on him comparing himself to Cochran of “Survivor South Pacific” and “Survivor Caramoan” (someone most vulnerable in the early game), and describing himself as an introvert (thus needing more time to build the relationships he’d need to survive), and there’s just a lot working against the guy.  While this is a slightly older cast on average than previous ones, 41 is still a bit outside the average.  I don’t think age will be a major factor, but if his age shows in his challenge performance, then he’s an easy early pick to go.  To me, he doesn’t look like he’ll be a challenge liability, but then again, I thought Brandon on “Survivor 45” would be good in challenges, so we see how good I am at eyeballing that particular game aspect.  Reluctantly, I must make Bhanu my pick for first boot, as he just has too much against him.  I hope I’m wrong, however.  

Kenzie Petty (29, Salon Owner, Charlotte, NC, Yanu Tribe): Kenzie quickly won her way into my heart by being an avowed “Settlers of Catan” fan.  Now, winning your way to my heart won’t necessarily make me give you good odds at going deep in the game, but even taking my feelings out of it as much as possible, I give Kenzie decent odds.  Again, bearing in mind my previous comments about me not being good at picking who’s going to be good in challenges, Kenzie seems like she at least won’t be a liability.  While she is loud and a stand-out, both in personality and looks, it’s not so much so that it would strike me as grating, and I see there being more valuable targets to take out on Yanu.  Unless they go full disaster (which, despite my earlier comments, I have my doubts), Kenzie probably sticks around for a good bit.  Kenzie also does a good job balancing the free-spiritedness of the cast as a whole with practicality, since her “job story” is less about leaving a job for another one than it is not doing as much pre-planning when seizing an opportunity presented.  Like I said before, I’d normally consider such a jump a liability, but with this cast, it should vibe well, and comes across to me as less inherently risky.  As long as she has some good game sense, Kenzie should stick around until the mid-to-late merge.  Honestly, the fact that she DOES stand out in a couple of aspects is the only thing stopping me from making her a winner pick.  

Charlie Davis (26, Law Student, Boston, MA, Siga Tribe): Charlie is a nerd through-and-through, and wears it on his sleeve.  Don’t believe me?  He compares himself to Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  If only he had thrown in Cochran, he’d have hit the “nerd” trifecta.  Self-knowledge is a good thing for sure, and the upside for Charlie is that he’s on the tribe I don’t see visiting Tribal Council much, if at all.  Prove yourself in a puzzle or two, and you’re probably set for the merge.  The downside for Charlie is that, with his nerd-dom on his sleeve, everyone else can see it too.  With “Survivor 44” and Carson being particularly fresh in everyone’s minds for this season, I doubt anyone is going to let him get super-close to the end.  Hence, Charlie is probably an easy target in the early-merge, and goes somewhere in there.  Not much more to say about him than that.  Nice guy, but an archetype we know well, and fairly predictable in how he’ll do as a result.  

Liz Wilcox (35, Marketing Strategist, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): Yes, lest you thought “Survivor” was going to shake things up, there are still three tribes this season.  It just took us until Liz to actually talk about someone from Nami.  And as the first representative of her tribe… Liz isn’t the best.  She looks like another fun nerd, though she compares herself to Russell (presumably Hantz of “Survivor Samoa”) and Sandra (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), neither of which seem like a fit for her from how she describes herself.  Neither of them strike me as “Fun-seeking” or “Growth-minded”.  Also don’t know if she’s just not a big fan of the show and has thus only heard of some of the bigger names, or just really loves “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Either is plausible, quite frankly.  Liz has a great story about overcoming a fear of public speaking and general social awkwardness.  Great for her, and while it means she probably has good social skills that she’s learned, one tends to revert to one’s personal habits in a deprivation situation, so I could see those not being as honed as Liz normally has them.  If she does do that, she’s in trouble.  Any sort of social awkwardness is a reason to get someone out, and Liz is also one of the few challenge sinks I see on this season, so I don’t see much reason to keep her around if they attend Tribal Council at all.  I don’t think she’s the very first boot, but definitely another pre-merger.  And we will be all the sadder for it.  

David “Jelinsky” Jelinsky (22, Slot Machine Salesman, Las Vegas, NV, Yanu Tribe): In the contest of “Who did the craziest/riskiest thing with their life this season”, I think I have to give the award to Jelinsky here.  While lots of other people changed careers, or up-sticks and moved without much of a plan, Jelinsky outright dropped out of high school.  Folks who wanted non-college-educated people on the show, you got your wish.  Jelinsky does have several things working in his favor this season.  Chief amongst them is that he’s a young, athletic guy on a season without a lot of those.  Pre-merge, at least, that makes him valuable, especially since he’s on a tribe with a bit of a dearth of strength.  A career in sales, as we’ve seen with several recent contestants, can be good preparation for the show.  And amongst his contestant comparisons, he lists a number of players who saw success with “playing dumb”, something that, between the looks he has and the skill set he has, is a pretty good strategy for him to take up.  That said, Jelinsky does also have a few red flags that seriously hurt his chances in the game.  The big one is age.  Like I said, this season skews slightly older than more recent seasons have.  Now, early 20’s isn’t that far off from late 20’s, but it’s still a gap Jelinsky will have to bridge, and if he’s perceived as too much of a “kid”, a la Xander of “Survivor 41”, it may not matter how good of a game he plays, as no one on the jury will respect it.  Secondly, and this may be me reading too much into things, but Jelinsky strikes me as having a bit of an ego.  Maybe it’s his asking to be referred to by his last name, maybe it’s how he talks about himself in the third person, but this strikes me as a guy who won’t be quiet, and thus rub others the wrong way.  His strength being a necessary asset, plus his salesman skills, probably carry him through to the merge, but expect him to be the mergeatory or early merge boot, due to these red flags.  

Maria Shrime Gonzales (48, Parent Coach, Dallas, TX, Siga Tribe): Right away, the thing that stands out about Maria is her age.  This cast may not skew as young as more recent casts do, but even then, Maria is a bit without peer.  There’s a couple of other players in their 40’s, but it’s EARLY 40’s for them, meaning Maria’s closest peers in this game, by age, are still seven years apart.  Not an insurmountable gap, but one she’ll have to overcome.  On top of that, she seems less “free-spirited” than the rest of the cast, as she’s notably one of the few who didn’t mention upending their life to follow their dream.  She’s still driven and has values, of course, but she seems a bit more circumspect about going through it rather than just winging it and seeing what happens.  Add onto that her very much exuding the “mom” archetype, which has traditionally been a very “all or nothing” type in terms of how they do, and you’ve got a recipe for a player with high risk in the early game.  Luckily for Maria, she’s placed on Siga, the tribe I would say is least likely to attend a pre-merge Tribal Council.  IF they do, look for Maria to be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening. Historically, once the mom archetype makes the merge, they tend to do quite well, and I don’t anticipate Maria being an exception to that.  She seems to have enough game acumen and enough of a level head to play well.  As we saw last season, however, the finally hurdle for this archetype is getting past the “being too likable” issue, and I don’t see Maria avoiding that.  She’ll be taken out either in the finale or just before it as a jury threat, but still, expect a deep post-merge run from Maria.  Sometimes a good hand is all you need.  

Hunter McKnight (28, Science Teacher, French Camp, MS, Nami Tribe): I went back and forth between two people for whom I would give my second winner pick two, but ultimately, after much agonizing, I have settled on it being Hunter.  I don’t know, the dude reminds me of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and that means “winner energy” for me.  I don’t know, maybe it’s just them both being teachers, maybe it’s the reddish hair, but I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is not Tommy.  Hey, if you’re gonna remind me of a previous player, a skilled winner is hardly a bad one.  Not that Hunter’s personal pick for comparison is bad either.  He went with Hayden (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”), which I appreciate for being a bit of a deep cut into “Survivor” history at this point, but one with a decent strategic record (albeit no victory).  Hunter is also another one I’d say is more reasonable in dropping something in life to pursue a passion, since in Hunter’s case he dropped further study to go back and teach in his hometown.  Dropping out for an established, stable career, even one not as well-paying, speaks to a good bit of common sense that can serve him well in the game.  That said, it’s enough “free-spirited-ness” that it won’t be off-putting to the rest of his cast.  All in all, Hunter is a very well-rounded player, and thus one I expect to do quite well.  Granted, between my two picks, I would go with Jem over Hunter, only because I had to agonize more over his pick where Jem felt quite natural, but again, not knocking Hunter.  Dude’s got skills.  

Moriah Gaynor (28, Program Coordinator, San Diego, CA, Siga Tribe): Every tribe these days has to have their designated “nerd”, and Moriah is that for Siga (guess Saga gets two, since Charlie is also here).  That said, I Weill give her credit that she doesn’t wear it as much on her sleeve as the likes of, say, Liz or Charlie this season.  The neediness is there, but more subdued, only coming out in things like the occasional D&D reference.  Being low-key is hardly bad with such small numbers, and couple that with Moriah being on a tribe likely to win a lot of early challenges, she should be sticking around for quite a while, barring an epic challenge fail.  That said, there’s also not a lot to recommend Moriah overall.  Again, nothing bad, nothing detrimental.  But there just doesn’t seem to be that spark, that zest, that drive to go the extra mile to win that the truly spectacular players have.  This to my mind lends Moriah to a solid, but nondescript mid-merge finish.  A solid alliance member, but not a leader, and her exit will not be majorly mourned by most of the community.  

Q Burdette (29, Real Estate Agent, Memphis, TN, Yanu Tribe): Fun fact, this is the first given name in US “Survivor” to start with a Q.  This is also the other guy I was considering for my second winner pick.  In Q’s case, it’s less data based than Hunter’s was, and more about the vibes.  I dunno, some pictures just scream “charming” to me, and Q did just that.  He’s my personal favorite of the season, and despite a relatively bare-bones bio, I quite like him.  I can’t quite say it’s “generic” as there’s a few turns of phrase and bits of info here and there that catch the eye, but the dude seems to have put the minimum effort into what he wrote.  He also gave the lame answer of “Bits and pieces from a lot of players” when asked who he was most like.  That may very well be true, but still, a cop out in my book.  I could talk about the real estate skills being helpful on the show, but that has a bit less impressive a track record than regular sales that I talked about a bit ago, so I’m not sure how much it applies.  Still, Q is a dark horse to win based on charm alone, and I expect him to stick around until the late merge, if not making the finale.  Really, only his lack of concrete data to back up the vibes keeps him out of a proper winner pick.  

Soda Thompson (27, Special Ed. Teacher, Lake Hopatcong, NJ, Nami Tribe): Everyone, we now have a real-life Disney Princess on our season.  Seriously, her risk-taking moment is marrying a guy she hadn’t known for very long; the quintessential Disney Princess move!  Ok, in fairness to Soda, she knew this guy for a much more reasonable six months, and it appears to have worked out, so hey, power to them.  While Q just before may have had the lamest answer to “Which former player are you most like?”, Soda probably wins the award for the weirdest.  Her answer?  “Survivor 42”.  No player, just the season.  What, so you’re like the entire cast rolled into one?  Those are some pretty disparate personalities you’re combining, then.  My take on this is that Soda, more so than anyone this season, doesn’t really know the show that well, and just conjured up a recent bit that she remembered.  This makes me question if she really knows the game at all, and if she can apply her skills where needed.  Look, I’m not going to act like foreknowledge of the game is a REQUIREMENT to do well.  The likes of Yul (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Earl (“Survivor Fiji”) are a testament that it’s not.  But couple that with Soda just seeming generally “nice” (she lists her hobbies as “Singing, taking walks, and doing random crafts”), and I have to think she doesn’t have the cutthroat hard core needed to make a deep run.  Add on her not looking like she’ll be great in challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Sorry, Soda.  You seem nice, but I don’t think the game is for you.  

Randen Montalvo (41, Aerospace Tech, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): I strongly, STRONGLY suggest that Randen focus on his military career when discussing what he does with his tribe, rather than mentioning the aerospace thing.  Again, this cast played fresh off the finale of “Survivor 44”, so they saw Carson dominate in puzzles, and nearly win, were it not for fire-making.  He mentions the word “aerospace” to this cast, and he’ll be out faster than a supersonic jet.  Luckily, I think Randen is smart enough to keep that under wraps.  Dude does not look like the sort of guy you’d expect to be an engineer, but if he’s smart enough to be one, he’s smart enough to downplay those smarts, if that makes sense.  Add in some good physicality on a tribe that’s probably going to badly need some physical power for the challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a decent length run.  Randen probably goes out somewhere in the mid-merge area, since I see enough fellow smart people on this season to suss him out, but early on, at least, he should be fine.  

Tiffany Nicole Ervin (33, Artist, Elizabeth, NJ, Yanu Tribe): Hoo boy.  Some people, their bio just SCREAMS “early boot”.  I can see why Tiffany was cast, though.  She’s a bright, bubbly personality, but that’s where the trouble starts.  Tiffany explains that her friends describe her as “living in a land of rainbows and unicorns”, though she disagrees.  Given her tone in her writing, however, I’m inclined to agree with her friends.  The sort of personality that pops on tv, but probably not the best fit for a treacherous game like “Survivor”.  On top of that, Tiffany admits she likes to play things risky, playing the lottery often in real life.  Again, understandable why that would do well on tv (big moves and all that), but probably not the smartest in terms of overall gameplay.  Unless her tribe has some MAJOR challenge sinks who need to go before her, expect her to go somewhere in the pre-merge.  Again, sorry Tiffany.  You seem nice, but “nice” doesn’t win “Survivor”.  

Tevin Davis (24, Actor, Richmond, VA, Nami Tribe): Fun fact about theater kids: We can sense each other a mile away.  You probably remember Tevin from the season preview.  He was the guy with long hair who screamed upon being given his buff.  I took one look at him and thought “theater kid”.  Sure enough, his bio comes out a few weeks later and confirms it.  Tevin is definitely a loud personality, which on a small tribe can be a problem.  That said, he’s also a young, fit guy on a season where, as mentioned previously, those are in short supply.  His tribe is going to need that, so expect Tevin to stick around for a decent length of time, barring that his tribe goes into being a complete disaster.  Tevin’s acting skills (as in toning down his loud personality) combined with his strength probably get him through to the merge, but there’s only so long you can tone down your personality. Once Tevin opens up, probably during the early merge, he’s going to get grating fast.  Combine that with the threat of an individual immunity run, and Tevin is probably out in the early-to-mid merge, due to being too threatening and too grating.  He will definitely stand out on our screens the whole time, however.  Also, this has literally no bearing on how he’ll do in the game, but I wanted to mention that while he’s currently from Richmond, VA, his hometown is listed as “Goochland, VA”, and childishly, I find that incredibly amusing.  

Venus Vafa (24, Data Analyst, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Nami Tribe): Just when you thought that “Survivor” would learn the threat that Canadian players pose, here comes Venus.  And as if there already wasn’t an uphill battle for Canadians on this show after multiple successful performances, you put on a Canadian who looks woefully unprepared for the game ahead!  Venus seems very worldly, aka “not going to do well in the outdoors”.  She seems like a city girl through and through, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does call into question how well she can hack it in the wilderness.  On top of that, when you compare yourself to a character from “Mean Girls”, that implies the starting of much drama.  Good for tv, bad for chances in the game, particularly with the smaller tribe size of the modern era.  That said, I will give Venus two points in her favor.  One is good self-knowledge, since she lists the players she’s most like as being Parvati (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Cirie (“Survivor Exile island”), who if you’re someone who’s not going to be the greatest in the outdoors, well, they pretty much wrote the playbook on how to do well in spite of that.  Assuming the comparison is apt 9which I get the sense it is) Venus does have some good social skills to call upon.  Also in her favor is that, while she’s by no means a challenge beast, she seems competent enough that I don’t see her costing her tribe a challenge, or being the first target if/when they do lose.  Unless she really makes a stink about how hard the elements are for her, I’d expect her to be a late pre-merge, early post-merge boot, depending on how much they do go to Tribal Council.  Not good enough to hack it long term, but at least good enough to survive a few votes.  

Tim Spicer (31, College Coach, Atlanta, GA, Siga Tribe): Rounding out our cast is Tim, who I would argue gives the most questionable answer to any of the bio questions in the entire cast.  Who does he say he’s most like as a player?  Shamar from “Survivor Caramoan”.  Now, as a super fan, I applaud the deep cut from “Survivor” history, and that may be the first time Shamar has gotten a mention since he initially played.  But, Tim, do you REMEMBER Shamar’s game?  Is that REALLY who you want to emulate?  Not exactly setting yourself up for success.  Now, in fairness to Tim, knowledge of game history is generally a good thing, and it MAY just be a bit of an inside joke, given that his previous answer involved an anecdote about gluing his eye shut.  But if it’s not, and Tim emulates his game style, then the only reason he isn’t a pre-merge boot is because his tribe seems unlikely to attend Tribal council in the pre-merge. Dude’s largely unremarkable outside of that one answer, and if the Shamar thing is just a joke, he’s a late-merge boot.  If it ISN’T a joke, he’s an early-merge boot.  Thus, in the spirit of compromise, I’ll split the difference and declare Tim a likely mid-merge boot.  

And that about wraps it up for this cast!  For all my jokes, honestly, this one seems kind of underwhelming.  Hardly an unlikeable cast, and with only one or two exceptions, I had something of substance to say about all of them.  But while I vibed with a couple of people, none of them also really grabbed me like other seasons have.  I doubt it’ll be a BAD season, and there’s always room for me to be proven wrong, but if you’re looking for this to be a legendary season, I’m not holding my breath.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.