Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 1: Charmin Ultra

Come on in, guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! Though, really, I can’t claim it’s only my opinion anymore. As you can probably tell from the title, this blog now has corporate sponsorship, so I’m beholden to the whims of my corporate overlords. Don’t worry, though, I’m taking it in stride. First off, I’m only taking sponsor who also sponsor “Survivor” to stay on brand. Second, I’m throwing myself whole-hog into this thing. I’ve converted the bathroom in my house into the “Casa de Charmin”, and, in keeping with the theme of this season, I’ve even invited back two previous players to advise on the blog. So, as I uncork this bottle of delicious pineapple sake, give a warm welcome to… What the?! WHO DRANK ALL MY SAKE WITHOUT ME? BOBDAWG! Oh, you are SO NOT a gentleman.

In all seriousness, you might be wondering why I titled my blog after a brand of toilet paper. Well, for those who don’t waste their brainspace on commercial slogans may remember that the “Charmin Ultra” brand of toilet paper used to have the tagline “Less is more”, which I think is a fitting title for this episode? How you may ask? Well, we start to see that right at the beginning of the episode, where we’re greeted, not by our usual vehicle extravaganza over epic Probst narration, but by Rob and Sandra walking up the beach, and giving us a narration instead. What spore of madness is this? Truth be told, though, I think this opening is a feather in Probst’s cap overall. Look, I will give the guy a lot of flak, especially for a lot of his decisions as executive producer on the show, but it must equally be said that he is the perfect host for the show, and no one can do what he does. Probst deserves every bit of praise and every bit of ego he develops for his hosting prowess. So, for him to put that aside and minimize his involvement in the opening? That, I think, speaks volumes about his overall character. I may not like how he refuses to let go of bad ideas, but give the man credit where it’s due: He is willing to take the spotlight off himself for a bit.

Having delved too deep into uncharted waters, the show makes up for it with shots of a helicopter and boats. Some traditions die hard, I guess. At least we don’t have to sit through another supply looting for the umpteenth time. Honestly, though, the only thing that I can complain about with this opening is how much it shows Probst’s favoritism for Boston Rob. When he talks about how Boston Rob and Sandra have won and lost, it shows Boston Rob’s one win out of four, and Sandra’s one loss out of three, despite Sandra having objectively a better track record than Rob. Cheap, Probst. Don’t do the queen like that.

Our new players are, of course, weirded out by the lack of Probst, but are still overall more excited about the game than anything. Karishma in particular talks about the need to contain her excitement when she hits the beach. Then, naturally, the very next shot is of her squeeing in delight and hugging everyone. I can’t give her too much flak since other people are doing it too, but a funny little moment, nonetheless.

In case anyone doubted Chelsea’s credentials as a superfan, she proves them wrong by voicing the complaints of fans everywhere: Too many twists. You see, Chelsea notices that this season is called “Island of the Idols”. Naturally, she comes to the conclusion that there will be idols everywhere, and talks about how “Survivor” is twist heavy as it is. Yep, there go her “fan favorite” numbers rising astronomically. Thankfully, Chelsea proves herself to be smarter than a lot of the superfine of late, and spends her time helping to build shelter and bond with her tribe, rather than look for an idol.

In fact, bonding is most of what’s going on with Lairo. Tom talking about his history in hockey. Karishma and Vince bonding over their status as people of color representing a new group on “Survivor” (Indian and Hmong, respectively). Hell, we even get a really touching scene where Missy talks about the horrors of having a severe brain tumor, and her struggle to overcome it. My God, I didn’t know this is what was missing, but apparently it is! We’re actually taking our time to bond with these players as individuals, rather than as strategists! Careful, CBS, or we just might get to caring about this cast!

Of course, this being “Survivor”, such love cannot last forever. Inevitably some people must be singled out, if only so that everyone else can avoid the stigma of being the “first boot”. Warning signs come up when Tom, Elaine, and Vince go off and have a chat about how bonded they are, agreeing to stick together and keep an ear out for each other. Not a bad deal for any of them (I always say that early on, a “keep an ear out” deal is best, as it builds a bond, but not so strong that there would be too many hurt feelings at a betrayal), but it seems that even if character is better this season, counting ability still eludes them. Tom, Elaine, and Vince only make three, and on a seven-person tribe, that’s not exactly good odds. Sure enough, the other seven notice, and agree to stick together. You can’t fault the seven for this, and they’re not even mean, like calling Elaine “weird” or anything like that. Those three just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and now they’re on the outs. It’s sad, but that’s the way of “Survivor”. What will be fascinating is to see how these three can wiggle out of trouble, if at all.

Checking in with Vokai, our purple tribe, we see that they’re in a bit of a similar mind to Lairo, trying to work together initially, rather than look out for themselves. We sadly don’t see as much personal stuff from them, mostly just introductions led by Lauren, then down to the shelter building. Really, the only one to get any sort of character so far is Janet. Determined not to be the “mom” stereotype, she sets out to prover herself and her worth by making fire. Not one to do things by half-measures, she even plans to do it with the “rub sticks together” method, notoriously the hardest way to make fire on “Survivor”. And damn if she doesn’t succeed! Even leaving gender out of it, this is an impressive feat. Making fire using your glasses is one thing, but this method is hard to do even for experienced outdoors people. This proves both that Janet knows what she’s doing and is not here to mess around. That said, while it’s definitely an impressive feat, and earns her a lot of respect in my book, I’m not sure how good it does at proving her worth or avoiding the “Mom” stereotype Janet’s trying to play against. We hear Tommy refer to her as “Mom” in spite of this, and frankly, I’m not sure fire-making ability spares you much beyond the first three days. Don’t get me wrong, having fire is better than not having fire, but once you get the flint, it becomes a lot easier to do, and the ability to make fire from sticks obsolete (barring, of course, that you’re the Hunahpu tribe from “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, but Vokai seems more competent than that). Janet’s definitely sticking around past the first vote, but beyond that, I think she’s still got her work cut out for her.

Man, these tribes are just too nice! They gel with each other a little too well! If only we had a cliche reason to drive a wedge between the people of Vokai! Enter Jason. Man, it must just be the fate of everyone first named Jason on “Survivor” to be an idiot (no, Kyle Jason from “Survivor Kaoh Rong” doesn’t count. Jason is his last name). On a tribe where everyone is happy and getting along, dude just can’t resist going idol hunting. Sure enough, people take notice, and now, guess who’s on the chopping block? Yep, you can be a young, strong guy, but if you separate yourself from the group so blatantly so early, you can’t expect a long shelf life in the game.

Back on Lairo, we get to see that tripe dynamics are a bit more complicated than your basic 7-3 split. Missy is all about that girl power, particularly as women are on a bit of a streak of being first boots (technically the most recent male first boot would be Pat Cusack on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, but he wasn’t “voted off”. Going by that definition, the last man to be first boot would be Darnell Hamilton on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, a good three years ago), and so bonds the women together. In particular, she lets Elaine know that her name’s been brought up, along with Vince and Tom. Elaine is concerned, particularly since she’s an older woman, a demographic that is historically an easy early target.

Elaine decides to turn her fortunes around the old-fashioned way: social charm. Elaine, it cannot be understated, is damn funny. I’m not even there, and I crack up whenever she’s on screen. Her tribe does so as well, and it’s not only good gameplay, but helps with that bonding I was talking about earlier that so many recent casts seem to have lacked.

Such bonding does not go unnoticed. Ronnie is the one to bring it up to the viewer, and since he’s a professional poker player, he naturally must tie this in to being a professional poker player. Ok, I think lawyers are probably the profession that least tie in to “Survivor” that claim to be good training for the show, but if I’m giving an award to most insufferable occupation on “Survivor”, I think the pro poker players have taken it. Jean Robert (“Survivor China”). Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”). Ok, Anna Khait (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) wasn’t too bad on the show, but seeing her after the show has kind of soured me on her. And now Ronnie. Every single one of them, just insufferable, and won’t stop talking about how “prepared” they are for the game, when they actually suck worse than Chet Welch in that challenge where he was tied to Joel in “Survivor Micronesia” (again, with Anna being a possible exception, and even she’s kind of borderline). I’m legitimately curious, can someone find me an example of someone who’s occupation was “Professional poker player” on the show who wasn’t insufferable? Bear in mind, it has to be someone who had that LISTED as their occupation. Someone like Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) who played professionally but never had it in their chyron doesn’t count.

Getting back to the actual gameplay, Ronnie notices that Elaine is making everyone feel nice, and getting in their good graces. Ronnie doesn’t want this. You see, Ronnie has figured that Elaine is tough to beat at the Final Tribal Council, and so wants to make sure she’s gone. All that I can follow and agree with. Ronnie’s issue is that he’s not NEARLY as subtle as he thinks he is. He offers to Elaine that he’ll keep her safe, merely so that she’ll be lulled into a false sense of security for a blindside. Elaine, of course, sees right through it, especially since Missy had mentioned it before. Now, Ronnie is her number one target, though even with the women’s alliance, I still have a tough time seeing how Elaine gets the numbers for this.

Moving back to Vokai, we get some insight into the individual strategies of our players. Jack, being the youngest, is playing up his fun-loving side, bonding with Molly in particular via the unorthodox method of using a giant clam as a squirt gun. Still, with a tribe overall as warm as this, the strategy seems to be working. Tommy has a similar plan, being everyone’s friend. Again, with a tribe as warm as this, it seems to be working. After all, everyone loves their 4th grade teacher, even me. So, it makes a good conversation opener, and connects quickly with all the other players. Naturally, our two most social players are drawn together, and Tommy and Jack quickly form an alliance. Of course, two out of ten is not enough for a majority, but thankfully for a teach, Tommy is not bad at math. He and Jack quickly gather together a majority of six, now including Dan, Molly, Lauren, and Janet, with talk of adding in Jamal as a seventh. Their target? Naturally, it’s the guy who’s been out hunting for idols instead of bonding with the rest of the group, Jason. Dan even comments that it seems like everyone wants Jason out.

This, in turn, is the cue for someone to make a dumb move, and rock the boat this early. Noura, it seems, can’t stand a smooth ride, and so warns Jason about his name being thrown around. Ever the brain trust, Jason is shocked that people could consider booting him this early. Dumb to be sure, but really, my ire here is for Noura. Look, I get what she’s trying to do: Save the potential early boot, and gain a loyal ally in the process. But here’s the thing: It’s too early. At this point in the game, the smallest difference, the tiniest quarrel is enough to get you booted. You’ve already got an obvious boot coming up. Don’t rock the boat if it isn’t your name out there. Now, some might argue that there’s a precent for this being a good move. After all, in the short term it worked out pretty well for Brian Corridan on “Survivor Guatemala” with Lydia. The difference here, though, is that that was a close-run thing between Lydia and Morgan. Neither one of them was a clear choice over the other, so Brian wasn’t putting himself in the minority by advocating one over the other. Instead, I think the better lesson here should be taken from “Survivor Gabon”, and the case of Ken Hoang. People tend to forget that Ken’s initial partner was not Crystal Cox, but rather Michelle Chase. They tend to forget about it because Michelle was the first boot, but yes, Ken was infatuated with her, and wanted to work with her. But, when he saw the way the wind was blowing, he was willing to cut her loose. My point here is that, in the early days of the game, you can recover from not getting your ideal outcome. Better to go with the flow, and save your social capital for later.

But now we’ve had two scenes of Vokai with only one target! Surely someone else is rubbing people the wrong way? For once, I mean that literally. Dan, as it turns out, is a bit of a touchy-feely guy. This is always a hard thing for men to pull off without seeming like a creep, and given Dan’s age, he just can’t do it. Kellee in particular is upset about this, pointing out that she just doesn’t like being touched, finding other people’s germs “gross”. Fair enough, and I can definitely understand the “using legs as pillow” thing to be weird, though I think the massage part might be a slight overreaction. Still, Kellee is entitled to her feelings on the matter, and entitled to express those feelings. She expresses them to Molly, who has similar feelings. The pair express them to Janet, and then express them to… Dan, where they have a mature conversation about their differences, and while they go away wary of each other, tensions seem to have cooled for now.

What, you thought just because there was tension that there’s going to be drama? Adults talking and acting like adults is a rare thing that I personally love to see. Are you not entertained?

Up until this point, this episode had been well above average. We’re connecting with the cast, getting some new situations for the show, and while I do miss Probst, his relative absence so far does make things memorable. Sadly, it’s at the immunity challenge where things begin to go downhill. Probst’s banter with the tribes before the challenge is nice, but the challenge itself is really lackluster for the first immunity challenge. True, the tribes do stick together for the majority of it, which I like, but really, it’s just a generic obstacle course with nothing original to make it memorable. I wouldn’t complain too much, since it’s a solid challenge overall, but this is the FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE SEASON! It should be memorable! Epic! A real “Welcome to the Game”. This challenge seems to say “Yeah, welcome to the show, I guess…”

But the real kicker here is the reveal of the immunity idol for the season. Hoo boy, the art department’s really working for their pay this season, aren’t they? “Hey boss, we gotta make an immunity idol, what should we do?” “Eh, just glue some Easter Island heads to a bunch of bamboo, no one will care!”

Really, though, all this could be forgiven if we had any sort of tension in the challenge, but the fact is we don’t. There is a bit of back and forth between the tribes, but the fact is that Lairo just seems far more likely to lose than Vokai, based on what we’ve seen of them. Both tribes have a token effort at presenting multiple targets, but given how the Kellee/Dan disagreement kind of dissolved, Jason really seems like the only viable option for Vokai. Lairo, by contrast, has viable narratives for either Elaine or Ronnie going home, and even Vince and Tom have something of a chance. Thus, it’s no surprise when they fall behind on the puzzle.

As a final negative note, I have to say that I found Probst’s narration particularly over-the-top this time. I’m normally a fan of it, but he just seemed to be trying WAY too hard to get us to believe there was tension here, and exaggerated the states of the tribes to a large degree. No, Probst, this loss was not a “blowout”. It wasn’t neck and neck, but this was nowhere near, say, Fang’s performance in the first challenge of “Survivor Gabon”.

Vokai goes home with immunity and flint, but Lairo does not get to leave empty handed. It seems that someone must go to the “Island of the Idols”. Fair enough, but it feels like the producers do everything possible to suck all the tension out of this. There’s not dealing with tribe dynamics as to voting who should go, there’s not even the possibility of someone missing the first Tribal Council and upending an alliance to keep us intrigued. Now, if we the audience had no idea what the “Island of the Idols” was, this alone would be enough to keep our interest. But the trouble is we do know. You told us what it was in the damn season preview. If you want us to be interested, you need something more.

Elizabeth is selected to go by random draw, and she’s not a bad first choice. She’s a big enough fan to get a good reaction, and gives us some good awe at seeing the place for the first time. Though, again, I think it goes on a bit too long. We get a solid 30 seconds of Elizabeth being in shock, when 10 at the most would have been sufficient.

But, of course, this brings us to Boston Rob and Sandra. According to all the previews, they’re the main draw of the season. And, for all my complaints, they’re pretty good here. True, they are taking time away from the new players, and I question how much they’ll take up of a regular length-episode, but the fact that we haven’t seen them until now is encouraging. I also like the detail of how they’re wearing the buffs from the season they won. Nice touch. They recite a pledge basically to make sure no one has a heart attack at the thought of playing against them, and we get down to business.

What with how early it is in the game, and how little Elizabeth wants to give away tribe dynamics, there’s not much to be taught but fire making. Cool, you mean someone else is going to learn the trick to the “rub two sticks together” method? No, no, he just means flint. Look, the “rub two sticks together” method, I get why people don’t practice. You don’t have the same materials as on the island, and it’s tricky to learn even under ideal circumstances. But you’re telling me people STILL go to the island not knowing how to make fire with flint? Apparently so, as Elizabeth gets a crash course from Rob, who makes it in about 2 seconds, and gets some practice with Sandra. Then, of course, we have to have our “challenge”. Rob tells Elizabeth that if she can beat him in a fire-making race, she’ll earn an idol good for two Tribal Councils. If she loses, however, she loses her vote for this Tribal Council. The show leaves a cliffhanger here, and so will I. I’ll discuss my thoughts on what Elizabeth should do, and how it plays out, when we come back to her.

For now, we check in with Lairo, and it’s really not looking good for Elaine. Ronnie is still on the warpath against her, with Aaron backing him up. Elaine is well-liked, but she’s not a major challenge asset, and given how early it is, people may not want to rock the boat for her. Elaine, being a bit direct, confronts the problem (Ronnie) head-on, talking about how she’ll vote for anyone, channeling Sandra (ironic given that she’s wearing a Red Sox hat), and how there’s no threat to her now. She claims that people can vote her out whenever. Not a bad argument. The flaw in that argument, however, is the precedent that is Sandra. We’ve SEEN that if you “put a pin in someone” they ride that pin to the end. That, Elaine, is why you are dangerous. Elaine puts to the women her idea of going against Ronnie, but the women are hesitant, again not wanting to rock the boat this early in the game.

Concluding Elizabeth’s story, she decides to go for the challenge against Boston Rob, citing her competitive spirit. Understandable, but clearly the wrong decision. You really want to get in a fire-making race against a guy who’s played the game four times, and pretty much made fire by glaring at a bundle of twigs? Naturally, this goes about as well as you’d expect, and Elizabeth loses horribly. She is rightly chastised for this, though I think Boston Rob and Sandra go too far. They’re right to point out that Elizabeth had basically no shot at winning this, and should have thought about it more, but I don’t think you can fault her for not holding out for a better deal that she couldn’t have known about, and you two did, you know, EGG HER ON, pointing out how little her vote matters out of ten, and encouraging her to take risks. Yeah, it was still a dumb move, but don’t go mocking someone for using drugs you yourself dealt them. Somewhat alleviating the “random draw” aspect is that Elizabeth picks a random name (which we don’t see) from Vokai to go to Island of the Idols next, and while I still hate it just being random, I do like that it prevents one tribe from steamrolling the other, and thereby monopolizing the island. Elizabeth leaves to make up for lost time, and for all my snark, I do like this use of Boston Rob and Sandra. They add a bit of color and some interesting dynamics in terms of earning idols. Sure would be a shame if the pair came back and ruined what should be a moment purely for this cast!

Back at camp, Elizabeth needs to get her lying chops on, something she admits she’s not too comfortable with, but does so anyway. She does a good job for what she does, though I think some of it was unnecessary. I wouldn’t mention the competition with Boston Rob, since that will only make people suspicious you have an advantage, and I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mention losing your vote, since that will only make people disinclined to talk strategy to you, but the lie about the three urns? That just seems unnecessary, and likely to backfire. Elizabeth will most likely end up on a tribe with someone else who went to the island at some point, who will then know that she lied. Not a good look for her. I don’t get why she didn’t just say that she went, saw Boston Rob and Sandra, and they chatted about the game. Telling the technical truth, and harder to be found out about. If someone who goes later asks about your challenge, say you weren’t offered one, because it was so early. Certainly don’t tell the whole truth, but I suspect Elizabeth’s lie will come back to bite her down the line.

That said, her contributions to the discussion, though good, don’t matter much, and we head off to Generic Tribal Council Design #5: Huts on Stilts! Yeah, the stay in Fiji is REALLY starting to show from a creative perspective. There’s just only so many facets to a culture you can center your season around that they become so generic as to be pointless. To give the art department their due, both the pen and the snuffer this season are pretty cool, but I still give the look of this season overall a “thumbs-down.”

As our new players begin lighting their torches, we the audience are shown that Boston Rob and Sandra are climbing up to their own private viewing box to watch the proceedings. There’s two reasons I don’t like this: One from a strategic perspective, and one from a viewing perspective. Strategy-wise, I don’t like that Boston Rob and Sandra have so much information about the going-on of the tribes. One of the things I found most intriguing about the premise of this season was the dilemma each new contestant who meets Rob and Sandra has. You can tell them in detail about your plans and alliances, thereby getting great advice, but also risk that information being spilled to future players who come to the island. Conversely, you could keep that information to yourself, but then the time on the island is largely a waste. It’s an intriguing dilemma that could bring out new facets to the game. By bringing in Rob and Sandra to Tribal Council, you take away that option, and just make them another gimmick. Which is what they are, by and large, but you don’t have to emphasize it. As for the audience perspective, while I’m fine with having Rob and Sandra on the season as a draw, the emphasis should be on the cast (especially since we seem to have a particularly good cast this time around), not on the returnees. Tribal Council in particular is a time to focus on the tribe. This is where our new contestants should really be able to shine. By bringing in Rob and Sandra, you steal away that focus, and thus make it harder to connect with the cast. If this cast had the strength of, say, the cast of “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, I’m not sure the season could survive.

Naturally, most of the talk centers around Elaine being on the outs. As you might expect, Elaine does not go quietly. She brings up her “pin” argument again, but also pulls at the heartstrings, bringing up how emotionless this all seems. The cast, as a whole, is moved. Even Ronnie and Aaron admit that it’s hard to vote someone out when they pull at your heartstrings like that. This, at the core, is what’s great about “Survivor”: The conflict between heart and head. Between logic and feeling. It is this conflict that has kept the show interesting for so long, and has kept psychologists and sociologists talking for decades. There are no easy answers. What do our veterans have to say about this?

Boston Rob: Sandra, would you have any trouble voting her off.

Sandra: Hell no.

Such paragons of virtue, our returnees.

As we head to the vote, I’m doubting that Elaine’s plea will help. There’s good arguments to be made for either Ronnie or Vince going home, but Elaine’s sheer amount of screentime, and how much we’ve gotten to know her, spell her doom. Makes for a predictable Tribal Council, but you know what, I don’t care! They brought back that awesome Tribal Council music track they for some reason only used on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, and I am thrilled. True, they added new lyrics to it, but who cares? The music’s still awesome!

In case you’re wondering, show, THIS is how you do a vote that blindsides the audience but still feels satisfying. Yes, Elaine was the clear favorite to leave, but we understand clearly how and why things went for Ronnie. Well, maybe not the “how”, as there’s no clear alliance of 8 against Ronnie and Aaron, but my guess is that Ronnie and Aaron weren’t going to be swayed off of Elaine (despite ultimately voting for Vince), so the women decided the only way to save her was to go for Elaine’s preferred target with Tom and Vince, and then Dean went along because he didn’t want to be left out. There’s excitement, there’s mystery, but it doesn’t come out of left field like some OTHER recent blindside votes I could mention.

As you might suspect from my earlier rant, I’m not particularly sorry to see Ronnie go. He somewhat annoyed me, and Elaine really entertained me, so I’m cool with this outcome. Whether or not it was smart is tough to say. Ronnie was better in challenges, but social cohesion is important to. I guess the best that I can say is that this may not have been the IDEAL move for the tribe, but it’s not a bad move in and of itself. If nothing else, it re-emphasizes the lesson that social cohesion is the most important factor on “Survivor”.

All in all this was a great episode, but it actually did better when it gave us less. Less Probst in the opening. Less domination of the actual “Island of the Idols”. Less time devoted to strategy in exchange for connecting with the cast. All great decisions that elevate this premiere to “above average”. It was only when the show gave us too much of something, like Probst narration or Rob and Sandra, that things went downhill. Still, even that doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a great cast that has fascinating stories on both sides, and a great hook for future episodes. If they learn their lessons from this episode, I foresee great things for this season.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Cast Assessment

Come on in guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! In my opinion, this blog had a pretty fun off-season. Got to try out a new format that was well-received. But now, the cast has been announced on a Monday for some reason, so it’s time to dive into the VERY limited pool of information we have for these new players. I know I say that every season, but even this feels like a downgrade. Pretty much all we have to go on from official sources is the “EW” photo gallery with a few snippits of information, plus bios and a two minute video, which is mostly Jeff Probst talking, from CBS. Weak, guys! Weak! I can barely fall back on my little “pet peeves predict how you’ll do on the show” theory. Suffice to say, this blog, never the most accurate at predicting how players will do, is probably going to go down another notch on the accuracy meter. So, which first boot will I foolishly call as the winner today? Let’s find out, as we dive into the cast!

As a side note, for the sake of simplicity, I’m going in the order of the photo gallery on “EW”, since I need that as a reminder of my thoughts on a given player.

Kellee Kim (29, MBA Student, Philadelphia, PA, Vokai Tribe): Hoo boy, right off the bat, and we’ve got some explaining to do. My longtime readers will remember that I once proclaimed that “Survivor” had yet to have a person named “Kelly” who wasn’t “As bland as beige wallpaper.” That still holds true, but thankfully for Kellee, she falls into what I call the “Wentworth Loophole”, named for Kelley Wentworth of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Basically, your name can be “Kelly” and you can still be memorable, as long as your name is spelled in an unusual way. Sure enough, Kellee continues this trend, starting off on my good side by listing “Settlers of Catan” as her hobby, but specifically mentioning the “Cities and Knights” expansion, aka the best expansion there is. Hatred of mayo is a second check mark for her in my book. I must admit, this Kellee intrigues me. She seems fairly fit (being on the varsity soccer team at Harvard is no small feat), and decently likable, with very little to go against her. Overall, someone who, on paper, should do well on the show. So, she’s my winner pick, right? Well… I’m sorry, but no. Kellee’s a dark horse for me. She definitely has a shot at winning. However, there’s two things about her that make me pause. One is that her pet peeves center around sleep, and anyone who’s pet peeve is likely to come up on “Survivor” loses points with me. The other is that, well, while a “Kelly” or variation can be memorable, however you spell it, they don’t win. In other words precedent works against her. I give Kellee good odds to make the mid-to-late merge area, but she’d need to be amazing to pull out a win. Not out of the question, but not what I see happening.

Ronnie Bardah (35, Pro Poker Player, Boston, MA, Lairo Tribe): Well, we go from one of the people I have the most to say about to one of the people I have the least to say about. Getting a bit ahead of myself, this cast overall does a good job of being distinctive early on, but Ronnie is sadly the exception that proves the rule. There’s nothing particularly wrong with him. He’s just your generic, strong guy who think’s he’s more charming than he actually is. The only thing memorable about him is how much he talks about his profession and unfortunately, I count that as a mark against him. Pro Poker Player is one of two professions (I’ll discuss the other later) that people claim prepares them for “Survivor”, but in my opinion really doesn’t. There’s an element of bluffing in poker, but there’s a higher ratio of luck than there is in “Survivor”, plus sitting in an air-conditioned casino just doesn’t compare to surviving in Fiji. Still, he’s at least strong, and as long as he doesn’t pull a Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”) he should be around for a bit. I peg Ronnie as the merge boot this season. Unassuming, but think’s he’s better than he is, and out as soon as physicality becomes a threat.

Chelsea Walker (26, Digital Content Creator, Los Angeles, CA, Lairo Tribe): You have to admire someone with that stick-to-it-iveness. While I personally have stopped applying to the show (the game is moving in a direction that no longer holds my interest in playing), as a long-term applicant, I can’t help but root for someone whose perseverance in this area was eventually rewarded. Beyond this, Chelsea’s biggest strength seems to be avoiding the usual pitfalls of contestants. Her pet peeve mentions a type of shoe, so as long as that’s on there she’s set. She doesn’t seem like she’ll be overly confrontational. She doesn’t seem like she’ll make any openly moronic moves. Really, my only concern with Chelsea is that her repeated applications mark her as a superfan, and as we’ve seen in seasons past, they can be overly concerned with making moves, rather than SMART moves. I see Chelsea going out in a blaze of glory, but it will be a LATE blaze of glory. Somewhere in the mid-merge area, I’d say.

Dean Kowalski (28, Tech Sales, New York City, Lairo Tribe): Oh, Dean. Dean, Dean, Dean. These are the hardest bios to write. I like you, man. I really like you. It’s just that I don’t think the rest of the cast is going to like you. In case his occupation didn’t make it obvious, Dean is a nerd. The man lists his proudest accomplishment as relating to teaching Algebra, and also mentions liking astronomy and physics. As the son of an astrophysicist, I can’t help but approve. I like the kid, but do I think he’s winning “Survivor”? Absolutely not! This cast has a lot of tough, athletic types, and I don’t see Dean fitting in well with that. The trouble, oddly, is that he’s a more realistic, well-rounded nerd than we usually get on the show. Compare him with someone like Christian Hubicki from “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. Christian, for how much we love him as well, was a more over-the-top stereotypical nerd. Gabbling on about algorithms and matrices, jabbering about all of this at top speed. Is it a more stereotypical character? Yes, but that’s kind of what the non-nerd public has come to expect. Shows like “The Big Bang Theory” have popularized this type of characterization and made it endearing. A well-rounded nerd, like Dean, while less drama-filled, also just comes off as kind of different from others, rather than endearingly different. I don’t think Dean will actively distance himself from others, but with how different his attitude and worldview are from the rest of the cast, it’ll just kind of happen. They won’t have enough in common to relate, and so he’ll be left out of major alliances. As such, he’s our first boot to go pre-merge, though he won’t be the first out. Someone would have to be actively annoying and/or a detriment for that to happen.

Noura Salman (36, Entrepreneur, North Potomac, MD, Vokai Tribe): For reference, on these, I read the CBS cast bio last, but start forming opinions immediately. Initially, I was at least indifferent to Noura. True, she seemed like a bit of the take-charge type, which can be detrimental early game, but not so much as to really torpedo her chances. Then I got to her CBS bio, and saw her pet peeves. “People lacking personal hygiene and table manners” and “People who are selfish, self-absorbed, and stingy”. Because clearly, people living on an island with now shower or toiletries, whose only goal is to backstab each other for ever-increasing amounts of money will NOT hit any of those personal pet peeves at all! Yeah, I was going to give Noura the benefit of a doubt, but this just goes too far. If I’m already thinking you’re someone who might go too hard on being the leader, AND your pet peeves are antithetical to the game of “Survivor”? Yeah, there’s no way Noura lasts long. Her one saving grace is that I think she’s on the tribe that will have better challenge results early on (and not just because they’re purple), so she probably lasts a few boots, but come the swap, I say she’s toast. I will, however, give her props for comparing herself to a former contestant of the opposite gender. That takes guts, and I’d like to see more of that.

Vince Moua (27, Admissions Counselor, Palo Alto, CA, Lairo Tribe): Contrary to our previous entry, my estimate of Vince’s chances have gone up the more I read his bio. I don’t usually put much stock in the “Which previous contestant are you most like?” category, beyond as a rough metric of how much of the show one has watch, but I put my foot down when the first word out of his mouth was “Vince”. For some reason, I believed this meant he was comparing himself to Vince Sly (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And look, Vince is entertaining, but he’s NOT the guy you want to emulate. Then it occurred to me that he was probably doing a variation on the “I’m an original” line. Still annoying, but not game-torpedoing. Still, this Vince is a little quirky, but it’s the kind of fun quirky I can get behind. Being declared the next shaman in the family has got to make for some fun campfire stories. While I do think Vince is probably overall too nice to win the game, and his pet peeves are a mixed bag (armrests good, racism and promise-breaking bad), I also think he knows enough to keep his head down and just be charming. Probably an early merge boot.

Lauren Beck (28, Nanny, Glendale, CA, Vokai Tribe): Ok, I know that the show moved away from casting hard-core survivalists years ago, but there are limits, people! I had a bad feeling about Lauren’s chances when I fist got a glimpse of her photo, and almost nothing I read did anything to change that. True, her pet peeves are inoffensive enough, but she just screams “worldly” to me. Her every interest, from Cheetos to tru crime shows does not seem like the type of person who will do well in the wild, let alone on “Survivor”. Basically, Lauren is either going to shut down due to the elements, or complain so much that everyone wants to get rid of her. Not that it matters at all, but she screams “recruit” to me, on a season where very few players do. Hence, while she may be a perfectly nice person in real life, on the show, her chances are slim. Not the first boot, again due to lucky tribe placement, but definitely an early merge boot.

Tommy Sheehan (26, 4th Grade Teacher, Long Beach, NY, Vokai Tribe): After all that negativity, I need a good bio to get me out of this funk. And who better to do so that my personal favorite of the season, Tommy. Coincidentally, Tommy is also my male pick to win the whole season. This all might seem weird, because if you look at Tommy’s bios, there’s not much to them. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not giving one-word answers, but he’s not giving away a whole lot either. And that, I think, is what will make him the winner. He knows not to give everything away in one fell swoop, despite the obvious temptation to do so. This speaks well of his chances, and it’s what makes him so intriguing to me. Plus, while his answers are short, they’re generally good, and belie an intimate knowledge of “Survivor”. Take, for instance, his liking of asking his Magic-8 Ball about the future. Could this be a Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) reference? Possibly, but if you want more explicit knowledge of “Survivor” arcana, look at the players he compares himself to. True, he mentions David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) who’s fairly well-known, but his other two mentions show he’s more than just a casual fan. He mentions Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”) who’s admittedly still well-known, but hardly as recent as David. But then he mentions Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) who, while recent, is a less-remembered and I believe underrated player. This, to me, indicates that Tommy knows what the hell he’s doing out there, but doesn’t do so in a way others might catch on to. True, his pet peeve of bullies is a bit concerning, but if he can keep it under wraps, much like his intelligence, then I’m confident in saying that Tommy has what it takes to be a winner.

Karishma Patel (37, Personal Injury Lawyer, Houston, TX, Lairo Tribe): Remember when I said there was another occupation that seems like it would play well on “Survivor”, but I feel really doesn’t? Yeah, that other one is lawyers. Despite what the recent victory of Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) might indicate, generally, the skills of arguing in a courtroom aren’t going to win you many favors with the contestants. As Willard Smith (“Survivor Palau”) once told us, “A significant portion of [people] know lawyer jokes.” True, so do a significant portion of lawyers, but there’s still that bias to contend with. Karishma compares herself to to Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Str”), but to me, she seems closer to Nadiya from the same season. Loud, in your face, and an easy person to consent around. Having limited challenge skills from what I can surmise, coupled with not being lucky on which tribe she was placed on, Karishma gets the dubious honor of being my predicted first boot. She doesn’t seem to have the challenge chops to be worth keeping around, and I don’t see her sitting back, being quiet, and letting other people become targets. As such, first boot, and now that I’ve said that, she’s probably going to go on to win the whole thing, given my track record. Karishma, if you’re reading this, you’re welcome.

Aaron Meredith (36, Gym Owner, Warwick, RI, Lairo Tribe): If nothing else, credit Aaron for having a good self-knowledge. He compares himself to Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”), which I think is an apt comparison. Spectacular brawn, but not much else to recommend him. Still, I’ve heard of worse traits than good self-knowledge. Following the pattern of his comparison, Aaron will probably be an early-to-mid merge boot. It helps a lot that he’s on the tribe that going to need strength early on, as his pet peeves of laziness and ignorance might be triggered on the show. Pre-merge, people are going to need him in spite of that, but once the merge hits, he becomes a threat, and I don’t see him having the capacity to last much beyond that.

Molly Byman (27, Law Student, Durham, NC, Vokai Tribe): Molly is definitely an interesting one. Very mixed on the good and the bad. A woman who likes board games, as established with Kellee earlier, is a woman after my own heart, and casual tarot card reading makes for a good bit of flavor. Plus, another superfan. On the minus side, Molly, well, stands out. In case it wasn’t obvious, on “Survivor”, that’s rarely a good thing. Especially in the early game, even a slight difference can be enough to evict you. Other players, desperate to spare themselves the humiliation of an early boot, will seize on anything to avoid the dreaded snuff. While Molly is not the worst offender I’ve seen, and she does have the good fortune to be on what I’m considering the dominant tribe early on, she’s just always going to stand out in a crowd, which you don’t want. As such, despite her good fortune, I’m predicting another pre-merge boot. Think Flicka from “Survivor Cook Islands”. Memorable character with a fun lifestyle, but not going to win “Survivor”.

Tom Laidlaw (60, Former NHL Player, Greenwich, CT, Lairo Tribe): Ladies and Gentleman, may I present to you, OUR FIRST CANADIAN CONTESTANT… Who currently lives in the US, but hey, baby steps. Much as I like the novelty of this, and am happy to see Canada finally getting some representation on the show, Tom is not going to be a good outing for the country. His answers are a little short, but nothing he says in his bio is particularly damning. Hell, his pet peeve is probably one of the safest: driving in slowly in the fast lane. Something perfectly understandable, yet unlikely to be encountered on “Survivor”. The trouble that Tom can’t escape is his age. Sure, he seems in great shape for a 60-year-old, but like it or not, the body atrophies, and even an in-shape 60-year-old body is something of a liability. This, on a tribe that cannot afford liabilities. While tom seems inoffensive enough to escape the first boot, don’t be expecting him to make the merge. Sorry, Canada. Maybe soon we’ll have “Survivor America vs. Canada”, and you can get better representation.

Missy Byrd (24, Air Force Veteran, Tacoma, WA, Lairo Tribe): Ah, our resident military contestant for the season. These types of people generally fall one of two ways: Either they blend in well with civilians, and are helpful about survival without being domineering, or they try too blatantly to take charge and get on everyone else’s nerves. Given that Missy lists “Annoying human beings” as her pet peeve, I’m inclined to say she falls into the latter category, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence for her. Whatever trouble she may have bonding with her fellow contestants, it cannot be denied that Missy is in tip-top shape, and on a tribe that needs that, like Lairo, such personalities might be ignored. Presuming a 2-3 tribe switch at some point, I even think Missy will survive to the merge, since she’s likely to be the big challenge gun on whatever small tribe she ends up on. Once that merge hits, though? Now Missy is a threat, and an annoying one, at that. As such, she probably goes around the early merge, though if she’s better at keeping her military background under wraps, she could make the mid-merge.

Jack Nichting (23, Graduate Student, Harrisonburg, VA, Vokai Tribe): When you don’t have video of many of these people talking, there’s not a lot to go on beyond what’s written. Even so, despite his writings overall being good, I don’t give Jack great odds. He talks a big game about playing the “smarter than I look” card, but I get the sense that that’s just what he thinks he needs to say, rather than what he is. At his core, Jack strikes me as an inoffensive, yet strong, party boy. This will serve him well early on, but I just don’t see him having the smarts or the killer instinct to win. In fact, I’ll go even farther and call him a pre-merge boot, though post-swap. There’ll be bigger fish to fry on a large tribe, but after a 2-3 swap, he stands out a lot more, and I could see a Lairo minority taking him out as a big gun from the original Vokai. Plus, his pet peeves deal with personalities he’s likely to see on “Survivor”, so having him out here fits my pet theory. Sorry, Jack.

Elaine Stott (41, Factory Worker, Rockholds, KY, Lairo Tribe): Here’s another where I don’t think what’s on paper belies how they actually are, though in Elaine’s case, I think it has less to do with who she is, and more to do with where she is. She’s an older woman, and while this cast is not as bad as some in this way, the show is skewing young once again. She comes across as motherly and no-nonsense, two things that can be tough to relate to. She doesn’t seem particularly strong. An yet, paradoxically, I think Elaine will make it deep in “Survivor”. Once again, the tribe she’s on has everything to do with it. Yes, Elaine seems like she won’t be the best at challenges, and yes, it does seem like her personality could be a bit annoying to live with, but there’s a lot of people like that on this tribe, who are way worse about it than she is. Thus, she’ll be kept around early, probably often the alternate boot, but never evicted. Then, once she makes the merge, she’s no target. Basically, another Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and as someone who quite enjoyed Lauren on that season, I’m all for it! Elaine will definitely provide some fun and original moments, and I look forward to seeing her make it deep.

Jason Linden (32, Personal Injury Lawyer, New York City, Vokai Tribe): Jason may not talk about his career as much as others, but I still say it does him no favors. The trouble is that Jason is another one who doesn’t really give me a lot to work with. Another generic strong, nice guy with not a lot else to recommend him. Like most in this archetype, he’ll do well pre-merge, but then become a threat. I will give Jason slightly better odds on this than usual, though, and for two reasons. One, he’s on the tribe I think will dominate early on, so he could be ensconced in the majority for a while, even post-merge. Two, he does at least on paper understand that “Survivor” is a social game, not a purely strategic one. Again, not sure if that will carry him far in the game, but it is just enough to allow me to push him into the mid-to-late merge category, rather than the early-to-mid merge category.

Elizabeth Beisel (26, Olympic Medalist, Saunderstown, RI, Lairo Tribe): Elizabeth is another one who gives very little, and I think it’s to her credit. She doesn’t go quite as far in this as Tommy, but there’s still subtle little touches that I like. Notably, she again compares herself to an off-beat contestant, Kara Kay of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. True, a recent season, but I would argue not one of the stand-outs of the recent season, implying both fandom and a good bit of self-knowledge, both of which I like. On top of that, looking at her photo, there’s just sort of a charming, unassuming, girl-next-door kind of vibe that’s not going to rub anyone the wrong way. Add on her being physically competent on a tribe likely to keep physical strength, plus another pet peeve (scrolling on phones while talking) that’s not going to come up on the show, and there’s no other place to put Elizabeth than as my female winner pick. Yes, this means once again, I’m going with the Olympic Swimmer as my female winner pick. Evidently Katrina Radke (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) didn’t burn me badly enough.

Jamal Shipman (33, College Administrator, Providence, RI, Vokai Tribe): You don’t like bugs, and you went on “Survivor”? Big check mark against you, man. Luckily for you, that’s the only check mark against you. Jamal seems charming and athletic, but not threateningly so, with a bit of relatability that can take you a long way in this game. Plus, once again, he’s on the tribe unlikely to lose. Despite some generic answers, assuming he can survive the bugs, I think Jamal is an early-to-mid merge boot. He may be a bit too nice to win, but I think he’ll do well nonetheless.

Janet Carbin (59, Chief Lifeguard, Palm Beach, FL, Vokai Tribe): Janet really wants to do what Elaine did earlier, but unfortunately, I don’t think she’ll be as successful. Unlike Elaine, she doesn’t seem to have much charm beneath her exterior, despite her claims to the contrary. Her answers are brief, and while that means she’s unlikely to spill secrets, it can also come across as cutting off conversation, and even in reading it, that’s what it seems like to me. Her pet peeve of lazy people should be no problem, though. I mean, it’s not like we’ve ever seen lazy people on “Survivor” before, right? But, like Tom before her, Janet’s big hurdle is her age. Even on the tribe that’s likely to win early, age is a liability, and not one they’re likely to let sit around. Unless Elaine can weasel her way in as a worker bee, she’s out pre-merge. Depending on the success of her tribe, she might make the swap, but not much beyond that.

Dan Spilo (48, Talent Manager, Los Angeles, CA, Vokai Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dan to me is probably the person who benefits the most from being on Vokai. While not necessarily “old”, he is “old” by “Survivor” standards, and doesn’t seem particularly physically fit. Being a Talent Manager, first of NYC, lately of LA, you can bet he’s got a forceful personality. And, the crowning death knell for Dan’s chances, his pet peeves are all about people’s attitudes. “Stubborn people”, “Ignorance”, and “Close-mindedness”. Again, because you never see THAT on “Survivor”. And yet, I mark him as a mid-merge boot? Why? Well, similar to Elaine, while he has marks against him, others on the tribe have them arguably worse. With a tribe that’s likely to win a lot of challenges, Dan strikes me as that annoying player who squeaks by a lot of Tribal Councils, then is safe early in the merge due to being the person no one will vote for in the end. He won’t win, because eventually even a million dollars is not worth putting up with such a personality, but he’ll make it deep. Plus, his last-name basis of past winners implies he has enough knowledge of the game to tamp himself down a bit early game. It won’t last the longer Dan lasts in the game, but he should last at least a fair while.

And there you have it. Not much to do now but wait until the season starts to see the boot order be completely flipped from what I predict! Even if so, though, I must admit, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season. We’ve got a lot of fun characters to work with, very few duds, and most importantly, no one that annoys me greatly. Really, the worst thing about this cast would be the number of “standard” listings for previous contestant comparison. Kelley Wentworth seems poised to overtake Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”) as the go-to for young women, but even the men are now getting in on the act, with Jeremy Collins (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) being popular choices.

No matter what, though, we can take solace that this season will be better than last season. Granted, given that last season had the “Edge of Extinction” twist, and this one does not, this season would have to actively sabotage itself to be worse, but still, it’s hope.

See you at the premiere!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.