Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 2: The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

Everyone, I have an announcement to make: The cliche joke of “Christmas in July” has been cancelled. This is not, as one might expect, due to people getting tired of a joke that wasn’t really funny to begin with, but because we are now so impatient that waiting until July is now too much for us. Christmas will now take place again in February. Late February, admittedly, but February nonetheless. It will then repeat every other month ad infinitum. This is barring, of course, that Aubry manages to win this season somehow. Then it will become a daily occurrence.

For all my stealing of yet another comedy writer’s joke, this is hardly an exaggerated opening. I’m not normally a fan of shifting things around in editing unnecessarily, but if there was a way to somehow make this the first episode, I would do it. Frankly, this episode blows the premiere out of the water in nearly every category. What does it do so well? Let’s find out, after our opening feature…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

It seems not even having a short premiere lets me escape the bane of forgetting important points from the previous episode. And yes, I said “points” as in plural. Admittedly, one thing I missed was just a minor joke opportunity. When her tribemates go to talk to her about her behavior, Reem happens to be holding a machete, which they awkwardly ask her to put down. Funny enough on its own, but it also makes a nice callback to an early season. Clearly Reem is somehow channeling the spirit of the still-alive machete fanatic Matthew Von Ertfelda (“Survivor The Amazon”).

The other missed point, though, is somewhat more serious. In talking about our new players, I neglected to mention Julie. Not to be confused with Julia, Julie is an older player on the Kama tribe. The toymaker, if that helps you remember her. Her confessional of the premiere is talking about her lack of outdoor experience, having lived in New York City all her life. A pretty standard confessional that wouldn’t bear much mention were it not for the fact that, since the show’s focus has shifted away from actual survival, such confessionals are a rarity these days. It’s kind of nice to see this type of confessional return in a retro way, and while it doesn’t do much to make Julie stand out, it’s still nice to see. And don’t worry. Julie will begin to stand out in the next episode.

Moving on to our episode proper, we start things off at the Edge of Extinction, which is apparently what “Extinction Island” is actually called. A little on the nose there, production. Rem gives us some shots of her wondering around for a bit, then goes to read the placard of the Edge of Extinction, giving her a bit more info on what’s expected of her while she’s here. It’s all information that we’ve gotten before, so I’ll spare you a summary. Suffice to say, Reem is not pleased, though mainly due to the lack of a time frame for the Edge of Extinction being mentioned. She then sets about making life there livable. True, she does have the husk of a ship’s hull for a rudimentary shelter, but that won’t be enough when the torrential rains come. Weaving palm fronds, Reem sets about considering how she ended up here, and to her credit, comes to the hard conclusion that she presented herself poorly. It shows good self-knowledge on her part, and makes me intrigued for her chances should she come back in the game. Isolation is tough on the best of us, and Reem breaks down a little, talking about leaving her kids for so long only to be voted out first, before sucking it up and getting on with life. We transition away with a pensive shot of her looking out at the ocean. A nice, short scene, but one that shows a lot of character growth for Reem, and is pretty nice to look at as well. If we’re going to have an “Edge of Extinction” in the game, it’s been handled nicely so far. It’s there and it adds character, but doesn’t take up more time than is necessary. That said, I’m still not sold on this twist, if only because I feel a lot of why this worked is the isolation. As soon as Reem gets company, a lot of the interest goes away.

Transitioning to the Manu camp, we come upon the tribe playing the favorite game of all “Survivor” Contestants: Who most resembles a zombie? Seriously, I feel like every couple of seasons we get a shot of people comparing the gray and wrinkled-ness of their hands. Nice to see that some traditions survive.

As for our fallout from the past Tribal Council, I’m pleased to report that Wendy falls on the good side of how to handle the wrong side of the vote. Nearly perfect in fact. Rather than frame her siding with Reem as an emotional decision, Wendy highlights to Rick (I refuse to follow Probst’s lead and call him “Devans”) the danger of keeping Kelley Wentworth in the game. Not only does Wendy express few if any sour grapes, but by presenting her argument so logically, she paints a target on someone other than herself, and leaves people open to working with her, which she’ll need if she hopes to survive in this game. It also helps a lot that Wendy reins in some of her excesses a little bit.

Sounds like a textbook way to work back into the fold after picking the wrong side. So, why do I say “nearly perfect”? Well, as a new player, Rick is likely to want to take out a returnee. After all, they’re objectively the largest threat to his game. Other returnees, however, are less like. And guess who else happens to be in on this conversation but David, the other returnee of the tribe. Sure enough, he gently indicates to Wendy that things aren’t probably going to go that way.

This conversation does not go unnoticed by Kelley Wentworth and co. Sensing a blindside brewing in the wind, she, Wardog, and Lauren agree that an eye must be kept on Wendy, lest she find an idol. More on that plotline in a bit.

Over at Kama, Ron livens things up by helping the tribe coe up with a tribe dance. Wonder where that is in his school curriculum? It’s a nice scene of everybody bonding, but soon, we get the intrigue that goes on behind the scenes. Aubry complains about not going to Tribal Council first, which seems a bit weird to me. Aubry, as a player, works best when she has a bit of time before the strategizing starts. She’s a social player, and so needs time to work her way into people’s good graces, especially on a season where she’s seen as a big target like this one. Given how Eric and Gavin in particular were targeting her last episode, I think she’d be thrilled. Now, I do understand her argument that it’s harder to see where the strategic lines are drawn without a Tribal Council, but again, Aubry’s best strategy is built up slowly over time, and it’s hard to observe battle lines if you’re, you know, voted out.

Then again, perhaps we’ve been slightly overselling Aubry’s social prowess here. She starts putting some feelers out to people, in particular asking a clearly disinterested Victoria and Julia about how they feel about returnees. Aubry is at least bright enough to read the room, seeing that this is getting her nowhere, and compares herself and Joe to ants under a magnifying glass, in danger of being fried by the sun. A funny metaphor. A worthy successor to her original “Oregon Trail” confessional. But possibly not enough to save her. Not helping her case is that she’s been having one-on-one conversations with people, and using some similar phrasing in them. This is hilariously edited into a montage, where we see Aubry saying similar things over and over to different people. Now, the awkwardness of these conversations may just be editing, as Victoria does say that Aubry does a good job of socializing with people, but the fact remains that people talk, and it kind of undercuts Aubry if people are seeing this. We go to commercial with Aubry being in just as bad, if not worse, of a position than she was before.

Back at Manu, we see that Rick and David are bonding over a shared sense of humor. David, the guy who wrote for “Family Guy” even calling Rick “hilarious”. Though, given that David wrote for “Family Guy” this may not be a compliment. That said, Rick did get a couple of zingers in there, both intentional and unintentional. Rick is a proponent of the “shields” strategy, wanting to keep people who will be voted out before him. To this end, David makes sense to ally with and keep around, as unless your returnee is “Purple” Kelly Shinn (“Survivor Nicaragua”), they will always be a bigger target than you. What’s funny is that Rick doesn’t say “bigger threat” than him. He just says “bigger” than him. We then immediately cut to a shot of David, who, to use another cliche, probably weighs about 90 pounds soaking wet. Ok, ok, we should also acknowledge Rick’s intentional humor, and I did like his line about promising “to blindside David at the Final Four”.

This, of course, leads the pair to talk about Wendy’s proposal against Kelley, and David now seems more on board with it than ever. He says that Kelley probably won’t keep him around too long, and he may need to make a move on her first. Here, I have to raise my eyebrow. True, Kelley isn’t likely to want threats around, as except perhaps for Joey Amazing, she’s the biggest fish in the entire pond this season, but I don’t see her wanting to vote out David too early. The trouble is, it sets a bad precedent. It’s like the winners going first in “Survivor All-Stars”. The pattern of “Get out returnees” is made, and now there’s nothing to be done to stop it. If Kelley takes out David, it eliminates a threat, but makes it more likely she goes after him. Since the same works in reverse for David (and is arguably even worse for him, since Kelley makes a good threat shield for him), I’m going to come out here and say that, for David and Rick, any plan to get out Kelley is not a good one, at least so early. Not helping things is when they ask Wendy how she would get the numbers to get rid of Kelley. There’s the three of them, obviously, and Wendy says Keith will be a fourth. But then, for the fifth, she says Wardog will come on board. Um, excuse me? Wardog? The man who seems to be in the power trio with Kelley and Lauren? The man who seems almost as stubborn in changing his mind as Wendy herself? Yeah, not buying that. Don’t see how that could happen. Thus, the plan is tabled for now, and with that pitch, I can understand why. Now, if I were them, I would go for Chris as the fifth. He’s part of the majority, but doesn’t seem intimately tied with them, and might not want to risk a tie so early. If you were looking to get a solid fivesome together, I’d look to him as your fifth.

And no, I assure you I’m not saying this with the benefit if hindsight. Those were my exact thoughts at the time.

It seems Manu is not the only tribe that can get idol paranoia. Eric and Gavin, worried about Aubry or Joe finding an idol, agree to amp up their idol search. Thus, all of the guys at camp (even Joe, according to the edit) go out on the hunt, searching through every conspicuous-looking tree, which as Gavin points out, is all of them. This leads Victoria, Julia, and Julie to come together and channel the spirit of Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), talking about how blatant the guys are being with their idol hunt, and asking why THEY can’t find an idol. All great questions! An intriguing way to shake up your usual idol search! Now, if only they would DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT! Seriously, they talk on and on about how they need to be a part of the search, and there’s no reason why they can’t find an idol. A perfect set up for them to turn the tables on our usual idol narrative. Yet all they do is talk about how they should do something, instead of, you know, ACTUALLY DOING SOMETHING! I’m all for good buildup, but we need at least some payoff.

To be fair, we do get a bit of payoff in the form of getting to know Julie a bit more. She talks about how this idol moment has told her she’s maybe playing the game wrong, and may need to step up a bit more. A great growth arc that really makes Julie stand out to me, which as I’ve said is something this season sorely needs. I’ll be watching Julie with great interest now. But there’s also an ulterior motive here. Julie was mostly talking about changing herself, but she also had a few comments about not letting others, particularly the guys, run her game. Might this be the beginning of a women’s alliance on the tribe with a female majority? The Aubry Lobby hopes so, and fully supports any efforts in this direction!

Not to have their plotline taken away from them, Manu sets about their own full-scale idol hunt. This is mainly spurred by Kelley, who doesn’t like having her name in the wind, noting that it can flare up at any time. I understand her concern, but I think she needs to get used to it. As I say, she’s arguably the biggest target of the whole season. Her name coming ups not something she can really avoid. She can only hope to contain it as it comes. Luckily for Kelley, the idol is found by her close ally Lauren. It’s deep in a dead tree, but I still feel it was too easy to find. Even that deep, the bright blue packaging really stood out. Good for Lauren, though I do have to dock points for her using the idol find to talk about her fangirl crush on Kelley again. Understandable, but this means the show feels the need to give us a “Survivor Cambodia” highlight reel. Show, you’re doing fine this episode. Don’t ruin it by reminding us of a better season. To Lauren’s credit, she does keep the idol secret from everyone, so that’s one mark in her favor.

Off to our immunity challenge, which is a repeat of the second immunity challenge from “Survivor Game Changers”, involving carrying a giant snake from the water to the shore, finding numbers for a combination lock in it, and tossing rings onto oars to spell “Immunity”. Poor Aubry probably gets PTSD flashbacks from seeing this challenge, and in case you think she doesn’t, don’t worry, Probst is there to remind you of it! Sensing the pain he has caused, Probst quickly shifts talk to the reward to go with the challenge, which offers a choice. The winning tribe can take either spices, knives, and a cutting board, or fishing gear. I’m all for choice, but make it a tough one. No question, fishing gear, the thing that can actually sustain you in the game, is the superior choice.

As we let Julie wisely take her spot on the sit-out bench, I have to applaud the editing this episode. Apart fro giving us the few hilarious moments and pretty shots I’ve previously mentioned, they’ve done a good job of balancing the tribes this episode. All have had some strategy talk, and while Manu has more coherent targets than Kama, there’s no clear favorite in terms of the edit as to who wins and who loses. Kama has maybe a slight edge, due to only Aubry’s name being thrown out, and thus lacking misdirection should they lose, plus Manu already being down a member, and not having Joey Amazing, but it’s decently even if you don’t watch anything other than what’s on the show proper.

Too bad I do watch more than just what’s on the show proper! As I say, Aubry is the only real coherent target from Kama this episode, and when one of her intro shots hasn’t been seen yet, you can bet this is a loss for Manu. Don’t believe me? Watch as Probst goes out of his way to point out just how bad at swimming Keith is! Yes, Keith was favored by the first immunity challenge playing to his strengths, but this one shows off his weaknesses. For all my ribbing of Probst, I’m not sure his narration really did Keith in. Keith did a fine job of that himself. This challenge is designed to show off the weakest link, and Keith was clearly that in multiple legs of the challenge. Like the Mana tribe before them, Manu do make it closer than it seems at the outset, but also like Mana, they can’t pull it off, as between the tossing skills of Eric and Joey Amazing, Kama wins immunity. Guess this is what Joe meant by “holding back”: Only winning HALF the challenge for his tribe.

Kama does the smart thing and takes the fishing gear reward so nothing to comment on there. Wardog, meanwhile, is on the warpath. Yes, folks, I waited all of two episodes to use that joke. It’s just the kind of restraint I have. In any case, Wardog, ever the subtle one, is big on “tribe strength” at the moment, meaning we now have a third target in Keith. True, we’re about halfway through the episode, but I can forgive hiding Keith as a target until now, since he really didn’t become a target until now.

Back at camp, while Kelley is resistant to the idea of not targeting Wendy, she also realizes that Wardog is not easily swayed, and thus Keith seems to be the consensus. Keith, trying anything to save himself, talks to Chris about how much Chris has helped him out, and swears undying loyalty to him. This gets Chris thinking. Undying loyalty is not something to turn away lightly, and so Chris gets to thinking maybe the target shouldn’t be Keith. You’d think he’d just go back to Wendy as the target, but Chris begins thinking bigger. He approaches Rick and David with a plan to get out, you guessed it, Kelley. This is basically gift-wrapped for Rick and David. They can get their five, but don’t seem to be scheming, as everyone else thinks it was their own idea. That said, it’s still probably best for them to go with Keith as the boot this episode. Why? Well, as they stated earlier, they want to keep Wendy around for her loyalty, so she’s not a good option. But getting rid of Kelley removes a great shield very early in the game. Keith is a third option that keeps the two biggest targets around, thereby protecting you and keeping your options open. True, Keith was supposed to be a part of the plan to oust Kelley, but even if he leaves, as Chris has shown, there’s still support for a coup against Kelley. Plus, it does keep the tribe stronger, and unless you have a swap in the offing, you need all the strength you can get.

Still, things seem perfectly in place. How could this plan possibly fail? Chris goes to Wardog. You know, the guy everyone talks about being unpersuadable? Yeah, smooth move their, Chris. Wardog, unsurprisingly, is not open to the idea, but he and Chris go away from the conversation with no clear winner, thus keeping the suspense in the air before Tribal Council. Yet another thing this episode does much better than the first one.

As a side note before Tribal Council: Props to Wendy! She did a fantastic job of staying just out of the spotlight enough for other people to become targets. She seemed poised to go after Reem, and yet she didn’t. That takes some skill, and she deserves much praise for it.

That said, the one thing the first episode has over this one is a more exciting Tribal Council. This one has better misdirection, as I’m really not sure who between Keith and Kelley is going, but that also means that everyone plays their cards close to their chest. Kelley herself probably gives the best performance, arguing well why keeping around a returnee might be in the other’s best interest. But it’s mostly good strategic double-talk, and while it keeps the mystery alive, and shows that these players are smart, it does not make for the stuff of legends.

Keith ends up on the losing side of the coin this time, which as I hope I’ve indicated, is the smart move for most involved. It’s not smart for Wendy, and Chris is a bit of a toss-up, but smart for everyone else. I’m a bit mixed on how I feel about Keith. On the one hand, I quite like the guy. Yeah, he kind of sucked at swimming, but he put up every effort, and within the game, did everything he could to stay alive. I enjoyed his spirit, and hoped to see more of it as the season went along. He’s one of the few new player’s I’ve connected with as of episode one. That said, I’m not sure I could in fairness say I’d rather he stayed over Kelley. That’s not knocking him, it’s just that few people are Kelley Wentworth. I guess what I’m saying is there was no good choice this episode, but he was the least bad choice.

“But,” I hear you ask, “What of Edge of Extinction? Surely Keith chose to go there?” Well, he might, but I suspect not. The producers, in one more clever move this evening, keep it hidden whether or not Keith choses to try again in the game. They even get in a good fake-out shot where Keith moves towards the torch and they pan to a close up of it, making it seem like Keith is going, only to show him pulling away and asking God for advice. We end with no clear answer as to where he goes. If this is just a fake-out so we suspect people might not go to Edge of Extinction, I’m thrilled. It’s well-done, and adds variety to the exits, instead of just seeing basically the same scene over and over again. That said, I suspect this is just their way of making people who choose to leave for good “exciting”. If so, that’s disappointing, but I could at least understand why Keith would choose not to. The kid’s 19. He has his whole life ahead of him. With his challenge performance so far, I’d say any chance of winning, even if he were to return, is most likely shot. Given that, he might just want to pack up and move on. I’d be disappointed, but I’d understand.

Like I said before, great episode! The editing is top-notch, the misdirection well-done, and now we’re starting to connect more with the cast! Admittedly, Kama is still largely a blank slate, save for our returnees, Ron, and Julie, but they’re becoming a likable bunch, and Manu now nearly all have some depth to them. Chris is kind of “blah”, but at least he thinks for himself. Keep up this trend, and this season may save itself from itself yet.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Episode 1: Oedipus Complex

Ja, ‘allo. Velcome back to ze blog about your seelly leetle island game show. Now zen, let us get straight to ze point: Tell me about your mazur. Vat’s dat? You wish to talk about ze aesthetics? Ze alliances? Ze returning players? No, no, no. Everything comes back to ze mazur. Zis is ze case in all cases. Ah, she eez ze nag, ja? As I thought. Hence your desire to keel her, ja? Vat’s dat? You wish to, how you say, “vote zer off?” Zis makes no difference. Death, castration with ze phallic symbol, eet ees all ze same thing.

Hoo boy, it’s time like these when I wish I did vlogs rather than blogs. Accents are hard to remember to keep consistent, and even harder to convey in writing. Still, I need to do SOMETHING with that Psych. Degree. And so, I welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. With a one-hour premiere, I’m able to blog as needed, so let us get started.

Our Probst narration is nothing special, as is the vehicle porn, though admittedly CBS just couldn’t resist giving us TWO boats instead of one. Somebody hold me, I may faint from excitement.

We get our requisite commentary from the new players, though even with the premiere being only an hour, they seem like an afterthought. We only hear from three people, and all on the same tribe I might add, and of those, one third of them were just talking about how awesome the returnees were. Hence, we spend most of our time extolling the virtues of these returnees, and how great they are. And yeah, as I talked about in my cast assessment, they’re good people to bring back. Just wish they didn’t overshadow the new players so much. That said, I wouldn’t trade David’s asking Jeff not to highlight his early weakness on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” for anything

Since this season wants to do nothing original beyond the whole “Edge of Extinction” thing, we of course must start off with a scramble for supplies on said boat. A bit of fun chaos to start off a season; just wish it wasn’t so overdone at this point. But of course, a scramble for supplies means the presence of a “Secret” Advantage. Really, though, at this point it should just be called “Advantage #572”, since it can’t really be “Secret” if EVERYONE EXPECTS IT TO BE THERE! Our big winner this time around is Ron. Good for him. We’ll get more into his advantage later.

Subtlety? Pah! That’s for seasons NOT completely dictated by what Probst wants! Not ONLY will we make it clear that the Kama Tribe (the one with Joe and Aubry) are the clear winners in terms of the scavenge, but we’re going to take time out to highlight in great detail Keith’s mediocre attempts at “swimming”! Guess which tribe will be the royally screwed tribe this season?

In all seriousness, I have a big bone to pick in particular with the highlighting of Keith, and not just because it’s another sign that the Manu tribe is doomed. No, while I didn’t highlight the Probst narration much, he did talk about the idea of “Edge of Extinction”. This, of course, meant showing footage of someone walking along the beach of the island bootees are sent to, which happened to be a young black man. Now, when I first saw this, I figured this was just a member of the dream team (the people production keeps on hand to test challenges) they drafted to shoot this scene, and I proved to be correct. However, with the highlight of Keith’s failure, I was convinced throughout the majority of the episode that the show had given away the first boot just to screw with us. If so, I would have been pissed. That’s just too demeaning, too insulting for me to take. Thankfully it didn’t happen. You escape my wrath, show. For now.

Since there’s nowhere else particularly good to put it, I’ll mention here that I really like the design of the tribe “Flags” this season. Instead of being pieces of canvas, as has been the norm, these are painted on bits of flotsam, and hung that way. It’s a unique touch to the season that fits with the aesthetic and gives it character. Too bad this is one of the best things I can say about this episode, but good points should be acknowledged nonetheless.

Heading off to our camps, we first check in with Manu. After establishing that yes, Rick is really excited to be here, we put the focus where the show tells us it’s SUPPOSED to be, the returnees. David is up first, being asked for advice on shelter-building. He seems shocked by this, and frankly I don’t blame him. Little experience is better than no experience, I suppose, but remember, the “survival” aspect of “Survivor” is not where David’s strengths lie. He’s a major social and strategic player, but shelter-building? Let us not forget the struggle this guy had to break kindling for firewood. Put it this way: If he were in a stick-breaking contest against Stephen Fishbach (“Survivor Tocantins”), my money’s going on Stephen to win that one.

Kelley, meanwhile, is here to give us our strategic confessional for the tribe. Kelley, if you’ll recall, played from the bottom both times she’s been on the show. Yes, she was technically in the majority on the original Hunahpu tribe on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, but if no one remembers you on that tribe, it doesn’t count. In any case, like someone who’s only played from the bottom, Kelley is bound and determined not to have this happen again. Hence, she sets out to create bonds with the new players, wisely starting with Lauren, the lady who seemed to orgasm at the presence of the great Kelley Wentworth on her season. Good choice, Kelley, good choice. Now, I’ll be saving my thoughts on the returnee strategy for the end of the episode, since it’s one of the more fascinating things to come out of the episode, but suffice to say, I think that Kelley’s strategy shakes out to be the correct one, at least for now.

Deciding that MAYBE if they want this season to be a success, they should let us bond with the new players, and not just the old, CBS deigns to give us some scenes of the newbies. Specifically, we get a scene of Wendy, Reem, and Rick weaving palm fronds together. Wendy makes kind of a funny noise during it, leading Reem to wonder what’s going on. Here, Wendy reveals that she has Tourette’s (there’s some disagreement on whether the proper term is “Tourette’s” or “Tourette’s Syndrome”, but since Wendy refers to it as the former, and it’s easier to type, I’ll be sticking with that), and talks about it in an open and honest way. Wow. I’m proud of both Wendy for being willing to talk about it like that, and the show for not hyping it into oblivion. Like the whole “Zeke is transgender” thing on “Survivor Game Changers”, I’m glad the show didn’t use it as a cheap marketing gimmick, but instead showed us naturally how that conversation came about, and let us in on the real, serious discussion the contestants have regarding it. This is the first time I really connected with this cast, outside of the returnees. How nice of them to do this A QUARTER OF THE WAY THROUGH THE EPISODE!

Enough with Manu, let’s check in at Kama. What’s that? Joey Amazing is doing his Joey Amazing thing, building a kick-ass shelter and starting a fire with a couple of sticks? I never would have guessed! We do first attempt to develop a bond with Victoria, talking about her superfan status and asking for a Buff for Christmas. This might have worked, but we spend all of about five seconds before we cut over to Joey Amazing being Joey Amazing. True, Joey Amazing says he’s trying to dial back the whole “Joey Amazing” thing, but frankly, I say that ship has sailed. That’s not the sort of thing you can put back in the box once it’s out there. Maybe on “Survivor Worlds Apart” he could have pulled that off, but frankly, no one would buy it at this point. Better for Joe to lean into the mythos. Make himself indispensable to the tribe, and make it seem as though daring to go against him is certain challenge death.

Kama is willing to give us a little more with our newbies, but that’s mainly because of Ron’s “secret” advantage. For once, he has to work for it a little more than just being at the right part of the ship at the right time. He’s told to dig three feet from his tree mail, and naturally rushes off to do that, finally revealing what his “secret” advantage is.

You know, with all the criticism of “Survivor Ghost Island”, and a lot of said criticism about the oversaturation of twists, you’d think production would have cut back on them a little bit. Of course, if you think that, you’d reveal yourself to be a complete ignoramus when it comes to “Survivor”. Now we’re not just content to give people one advantage, we’re giving them THREE! At least, that’s what I worried about (or Ron getting an insider’s guide to all the upcoming twists of the season), but actually, Ron’s “Twist Menu” as it’s called is something I can get behind. Similar to Debbie Wanner on “Survivor Game Changers”, Ron gets to choose between three possible advantages: a tribal reward steal, an extra vote, or an immunity idol. The catch is that Ron must make his choice prior to the third Tribal Council of the season, which I like. Time limits help make twists feel less like they’re bogging down the season (as well as reduce the chances of “Advantagegeddon” happening again), and choice is often the bread and butter of a good episode of “Survivor”. Ron holds off making a choice for now, which is correct, since he’ll want more time to suss out where he stands in the tribe. As to which advantage he should take, for me it really depends. What’s not clarified is if Ron’s CHOICE only has to be made by the end of episode three, or if the advantage has to be used by the end of episode three. If it’s the latter, I say go for the reward steal. True, it seems the least useful out of the three, and does make you unnecessary enemies from the opposing team, but it’s also the one most likely to be useful. Remember, Kama has been set up as the successful tribe of the season. They’re probably not going to Tribal Council for a bit. If the twist itself expires then, Ron might need to just use it or lose it. If, however, the thing he picks lasts indefinitely, I would say go for the individual immunity idol. Both it and the extra vote give you more power in the game, but the idol is flashier, and useful in more situations. Plus, since we and the players both know the idol nullifier is on this season, an idol you have but no one sees you look for would be a Godsend.

Ron earns my respect for being one of the few people we see mess up a dig site so it looks like no one was there, though I do have to ask: Did no one comment on Ron’s pants when he got back? Those were pure white, and the dirt stains were fairly noticeable to me. Granted, most people would get a lot of dirt on their clothes on “Survivor”, but those pants seemed fairly clean when Ron left. I think people would have questions about how they got so dirty on a simple walk.

Following our commercial break, we rejoin Kama again, because hey, we haven’t heard enough from the returnees, let’s get Aubry in on the action! She stays around just long enough to comment that she’s laying low, due to the returnee target, but we soon see that that matters little. After some humor from Gavin about him using his potential winnings to invest in a fourth stoplight for his town, talk between him and Eric turns to strategy. Sure enough, it’s our “The returnees need to go.” confessional, ultimately settling on Aubry as the target for tonight. As Head of the Aubry Lobby, it pains me to say this, but I have to agree with Eric that it’s the smart move. As a returnee, Aubry is like Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”). As a viewer, she’s a lot of fun to watch, but as a player, you don’t want her around. Aubry is no challenge sink, but she doesn’t bring much to the tribe, except for social and strategic prowess that can only be used to destroy your chances at winning the game. Granted, she’s not quite to the level of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) where it’s worth throwing a challenge just to get rid of her, as Eric jokingly suggests, but should you go to Tribal Council, she’s probably who you want to get rid of.

Cut over to Manu, who don’t want to be left out of the strategizing. Manu, however, focusses more on annoyances than on threats. Sadly, our annoying one this time around is Reem, who despite being a fun character, doesn’t come across well here. Despite trying to hide her motherhood, she’s very motherly, trying to keep people’s clothes dry by moving them around periodically. Unsurprisingly, this does not sit will with the adult members of the tribe. Only Keith, the 19-year-old self-proclaimed “Mama’s Boy”, seems ok with Reem, and tries to warn her about how she’s coming across. Reem takes this advice, and shoves it back in Keith’s face, flatly rejecting any sort of change in how she interacts with the tribe, though at least she doesn’t hold it against Keith. I have to admit, Keith has grown on me this episode. True, I can’t say he’s the best at a number of aspects of the game, but at least he’s got a wide-eyed idealism that makes him fun to watch, and dammit, he tries to correct his mistakes, and that gets a lot of points from me. Specifically, he tries to practice his swimming, taking Reem and Wendy out into the ocean to spot him and give him tips.

Aww, how nice! The new players we’ve bonded with the most this season are out working together and helping each other! It’d be a shame if they were targeted right off the bat!

Oh look! There’s Rick now talking about how the swimming threesome are on the outs! Look, I get why each of them are being targeted. There are legitimate reasons. Keith can’t swim well, Reem’s annoying and motherly, and Wendy can be a bit high-energy. All legitimate reasons to be voted off. It’s just that, as I say, these are the only INTERESTING people out there, apart from the returnees. These are the only people we care about. Them being on the outs just furthers the downward slope this season seems to be going on.

Our immunity challenge today is our bog-standard team obstacle course, though with a few things to recommend it. The crow’s nest is a nice touch that fits with the aesthetic of the season. As the slide has no water, it gets my seal of approval. And adding balance beams ON TOP of balance beams? Diabolical! Shame all of this is outweighed by the fact that so many parts of this challenge are individual. One person rings the bell. One person crosses the beam (though more can come later at least). One person in the crow’s nest. For a challenge that should really be about team unity, this one misses the mark greatly.

That said, there are a few good things to talk about here. Firstly, that immunity idol. I wasn’t a fan when I first saw it, but it’s grown on me. Weird to say, but I like the fact that it’s default position has it facing sideways relative to the tribes. We don’t see that often in immunity idols, and it makes for a nice touch. Second, though I was put off at first by the amount of open space in it, I kind of like the holes in this idol. Again, they help it stand out, but not seem too weird. More importantly, though, by giving us relatively equal strategizing from both tribes, there is a good mystery as to who goes home. Granted, I’d say Manu is favored to lose, both due to not having Joey Amazing on their team, and due to having more targets than Kama (Reem, Keith, and to a lesser extent Wendy were all brought up, as opposed to just Aubry on Kama), but there’s some suspense here. Indeed, our tribes start out fairly even. But then, ooh the balance beam. The dreaded balance beam. If Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”) is watching, I’d say his PTSD just got triggered. One tribe does well on said balance beam, one tribe does not. Unsurprisingly, it is the tribe with Joey Amazing that does better. They go on to win the challenge, despite a decent fake-out on the puzzle, thus earning Kama fire as well as immunity.

Consensus quickly comes onto Reem as the boot, due to her being worse in challenges than Wendy. Of course, for all their quirks, Wendy, Keith, and Reem are not stupid. They realize their position, and set out to do something about it. They decide to try and break up the pair of Lauren and Kelley, since they seem too tight. Not a bad strategy, but with the Kelley-mania that seems endemic to Manu, putting that plan into motion is going to take poise. Finesse. A deft hand. Subtlety is key here.

Reem takes a page out of the playbook of Debbie Wanner circa “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, and starts strong-arming people into the plan, not even giving poor Rick time to answer that question. Safe to say that did not go well.

Keith certainly sees the writing on the wall, as he quite literally abandons Reem and Wendy to inform on their plans. I’d normally criticize Keith for abandoning the only people who seem willing to give him the time of day for an alliance where he’s seventh out at best, but then again, this is clearly a sinking ship, and Keith seems charming enough to weasel his way into a better position, given a couple of votes. Between this and the first challenge lacking any swimming component, I’d say Keith is off the hook for at least this Tribal Council.

Less safe is Wendy. Trying to feel her out to see how she is as an ally, Wardog decides to go spill the plan to oust Reem to see how she reacts to the plan. Wendy, naturally, wants to stay loyal to her friend, and pushes for the anti-Kelley plan. This in and of itself would not be the end of the world, but when Wardog gives increasingly blatant hints that Wendy should try to work with him, and Wendy just stays on her same track, it does not look good on her. Wardog now thinks he can’t work with her, and thus wants to target her even before Reem. An understandable strategy, and a Wendy exit would not be the end of the world for this tribe, but I say it would be the incorrect decision, and it’s precisely because Wendy is a more divisive element than Reem is. Both are relatively equal in annoyance level, but Wendy’s annoying traits are likely to stay annoying with time, where’s Reem’s mothering could decrease/be adjusted to with ease. This would make it seem like Reem is the better choice, but this early in the game, you want your alliance to cohere for the long haul. With Reem in the game, dissent is possible. With Wendy in the game, you have a common enemy, thus keeping things stable for you. Better to get out Reem in this round. Even so, this is an interesting debate, and leads to real tension going into Tribal Council.

Speaking of Tribal Council, it is GORGEOUS! They’ve done the whole “shipwreck” aesthetic before, but with the heavy Chinese influence, and the sheer amount of bits and baubles they have around, this Tribal Council just stands out in a good way. I particularly like that voting booth this time around. Granted, it’s a bit cramped, but I love that you have to go UP to get there, since you so rarely see that. The last instance I can think of where the voting booth was higher up than Tribal Council itself was on “Survivor Guatemala”, and pretty much anything that reminds me of that season gets my seal of approval. Hell, even the snuffer we’ll see later is great, having a unique “claw” design to it.

Good thing this Tribal Council is fun to look at, because all the tension gets sucked out of it INSTANTLY. There may have been other topics of conversation at this Tribal Council, but all we see is Reem, Reem, Reem. Rick brings up the divide pretty much instantly, with Reem in particular being singled out as on the outs. This sets Reem off to defend herself. Now, being the focus of Tribal Council is not a death sentence. After all, you could argue that Natalie Cole was the focus of the Goliath tribe’s first Tribal Council on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, and she acquitted herself well. Sadly, Reem is no Natalie. She comes across as defensive, easily offended, and desperate to find any argument to cling to. Some make sense, like her “ageism” argument, but others, like the “targeting you is a compliment” directed a Kelley Wentworth just reek of desperation. With alternate target Wendy not even being mentioned, you can bet that Reem gets her torch snuffed this go-round. With the exception of Lauren, who was never really in danger of leaving anyway, any of the targets at this first boot would have been a loss. That said, I think Reem is the least loss of those targets. She brought a lot of personality to the table, but her unwillingness to change means she could have gotten old fast, and she was probably the smartest boot from a strategic perspective. Still, that doesn’t mean she wasn’t entertaining. Reem, you will be missed.

Fortunately for us, we get a bit more of Reem on our televisions for the foreseeable future. Rem comes upon the “Edge of Extinction” choice to some appropriately dramatic music. As one would hope, we see her consider her choice for about two seconds, before heading off to the “Edge of Extinction” torch in hand. I wouldn’t have it any other way, and Reem really sells the moment. Hell, even the arrival at the camp is quite dramatic, with Reem wandering around trying to assess her surroundings with no real clues to go on. A good way to introduce the twist, but I’m still not sold on it. Basically, while it’s cool to see someone try and figure out what’s going on with no guide, the minute someone goes to the “Edge of Extinction” when someone else is already there, that drama is gone. Maybe they’ll turn it around, but we’ll see.

This episode, it should be said, gets a lot of things right. In particular, a lot of the little aesthetic touches really sell the season. Too bad what it gets right is NOT the important stuff. The two major elements to help us bond with a season, an intriguing cast and good misdirection, are both missing from this episode. New cast members are passed over in favor of focussing on the returnees, and good misdirection gets squandered with obvious outcomes. Then, what few new cast members we DO bond with become the early targets. Look, the latter point is something out of the show’s control, but it’s another mark against the season as a whole. This episode is like someone writing out a romantic valentine, and spending all their time making sure the calligraphy on it is beautiful and perfect, yet only writing gibberish. It LOOKS nice, but there’s nothing of substance there, and there’s no reason to consider it beyond the initial look. This season NEEDED a strong start, and it really didn’t get it here. It can pick up, and I’ll have my fingers crossed, but the outlook is bleak at this point.

That said, I do want to end off by talking about one particularly interesting bit of strategy dichotomy amongst the returnees. The strategy of our returning players seems to evenly divide by tribe: David and Kelley on Manu own their celebrity status, and work openly to build alliances. Aubry and Joe and Kama, meanwhile, work to minimize their targets, keeping themselves on the down-low. So, which strategy is the correct one? Oddly, both. You see, the ideal strategy for a returnee varies depending on what type of tribe they’re on. If you’re on a tribe that’s likely to stick around and win challenges for a while, keeping your head down is the best move. It gives people time to get to know you as people, not celebrities, and eventually come around to how you may be helpful. Jonathan Penner most blatantly utilized this strategy on “Survivor Philippines”, but Mike Skupin also did so on the same season, and even Bobby Jon Drinkard on “Survivor Guatemala” to a degree. Conversely, if you’re on a disaster tribe, you need to take control, since returnees are big targets early. Stephanie LaGrossa on “Survivor Guatemala” is probably the best example of this, though one could argue that Russell Swan did a similar thing on “Survivor Philippines”. True, he didn’t last until the swap, but he avoided being first boot, which was something of an accomplishment for him. Time will tell which strategy wins out, though I fear Manu is being set up as such a disaster tribe that it won’t matter much. I predict Kama will steamroller this game, which would be a shame, as aside from Aubry, all the interesting people so far are on Manu.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Edge of Extinction” Cast Assessment

Greetings and salutations, loyal readers! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation” my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! As you might expect from the re-emergence of this blog, the case for “Survivor Edge of Extinction” has been announced! Is this a cast that will bring us to the edge our seats, or the edge of our tolerance? Let’s find out!

Before we begin, though, a quick note. There’s not a lot to say pre-thoughts this time, since there’s no themed division of the tribes, and I’ll be saving my overall thoughts on the theme for the end of the blog. However, my now recurring point about going off of very little information (due to no full videos apart from a generic season preview on the CBS website) aside, yes, I am aware that there are returnees on this season, but I won’t be talking about them with their tribes, instead mentioning them at the end. My reasons why will become clear momentarily.

Manu Tribe (Man, will it be easy to get them confused with the Mana Tribe from “Survivor Game Changers”)

Dan “The Wardog” DaSilva (38, Law Student/Former Military, Los Angeles, CA): Despite not being one of the people featured in the season preview at the end of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, Dan is clearly one of the stand-out contestants of this season. He’s a big, brash military type with a distinctive silhouette and strong opinions. Makes for fun tv. The trouble is that Dan doesn’t just stand out to the audience. He stands out to his fellow contestants. And as you should know by now: STANDING OUT EARLY ON DOES NOT BODE WELL ON “SURVIVOR”! It doesn’t help his case that Dan joins a long list of people whose pet peeves seem to directly clash with the show they’ve been placed on. Dan specifically lists weak people and complainers as his two biggest pet peeves. Two types of people that I’m sure have NEVER appeared on this show before. The tried and tested voting strategy of eliminating the brash one still holds up even 38 seasons in, and I see no reason that Dan will not follow this trend. Given his physical strength, I doubt he’ll be the very first boot, and probably survive his initial tribe just fine. As soon as a swap happens, though, Dan will be too much to bear, so expect him out right then. He’ll definitely be a fun watch, just one of those great pre-merge boots in the vein of Brian Corridan (“Survivor Guatemala”), though purely from an entertainment perspective, not a gameplay perspective.

Reem Daly (46, Sales, Ashburn, VA): This is overall a very verbose cast, at least in terms of their biographies, so having Reem be so succinct is refreshing from the start. Reem’s your typical mother type, but seems to have more smarts (she lists chess as a hobby) than one would expect from her. Not as big a splash character-wise, but not the sort of person we see as often on the show, and if she plays it right, could be the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”). Sadly, I don’t think Reem is going to get much of a chance to show us her stuff. Reed just does not seem like the type to me to fight tooth and nail should she need to. And she’ll need to do that, as this character type is usually an early target, due to being an easy, not-as-strong-in-challenges vote. As such, Reem will be a pre-merge boot, and I will be sad for an episode, and then move on.

Rick Devans (33, Morning News Anchor, Macon, GA): Must resist “The Walking Dead” jokes… Must resist “The Walking Dead” jokes… Ok, ok, for all my snark, I actually give Rick good odds in this game. Not to say I think he’ll win, but he’s got a long shelf-life. One qualification all news anchors need is to be personable and inoffensive to the people at home. In some cases that’s a put-on, but that’s not the vibe I get from Rick. He seems to be a fun, easygoing, slightly goofy guy, which usually portends a long life in the game, assuming there’s no major reason to eliminate you, i.e. challenge ability. While Rick is no Adonis, he doesn’t seem to be much of a slouch either, so expect him to be out when his charm can no longer carry him far. Probably making the final episode, but being an early boot on said episode. I’ll give him credit that I find his character intriguing, which is more than I can say for some of this case. While Rick has some similarities to previous contestants, his brand of charm seems like nothing else before it, and I say we’ll enjoy watching it play out.

Wendy Diaz (25, Small Business Owner, Bell, CA): Wendy is a bit of a wild card for me. She’s either going really deep in this game, or she’ll be out incredibly early. Most would say her inclusion in the pre-season preview, along with Rick, would bode well for her. To those people, I would point out that Mari Takahashi was featured in the preview for “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.”, and look at the good that did her. That being said, I still ere on the side of her doing well on this season. Wendy is clearly a smart cookie, but apart from a cutting wit, you wouldn’t know it from her. Wendy’s big obstacle is going to be her need to take charge. Leading a business at such a young age, I’m sure she’s used to being in charge all the time. If she can lead subtly and diplomatically, as I suspect she can, she’ll do well. If she needs to take charge no matter what, that probably spells her doom, as that’s even LESS tolerated on “Survivor” than it is in the real world. Wendy’s another one who also has risky pet peeves, listing off people who don’t carry their weight and quitters. Again, two types of people I’m sure have NEVER appeared on this show before. I’m probably painting too negative a picture of her here, though, as like I say, Wendy’s a smart cookie. She’s probably out in the mid-to-late merge area, and with that cutting wit, we’ll be enjoying her all the way. Plus, she wants to bring a beloved stuffed animal to the island. I just love that.

Lauren O’Connell (21, Student, Waco, TX): You will note that CBS just had to cast someone who compared herself to Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) on the season that featured the return of Kelley Wentworth. And, you know, put her on the same tribe as Kelley Wentworth as well, just for shits and giggles. Actually, it’s a good thing Lauren has this distinction, as otherwise she doesn’t stand out in any way. She’s nice, inoffensive, good looking. Someone who makes for a good alliance member, but will neither be a leader nor a big character on this season. Lauren is just there, filling a spot, waiting for her time to come. Given the caliber of player this season, I suspect that time will be the early merge. There’s no reason to get rid of her before then, but with how big the merges are these days, she could be an easy consensus boot who is unlikely to have an idol used on her. Thus, gone.

Keith Sowell (19, Pre-Med Student, Durham, NC): While maybe not as over-the-top as Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), Keith does remind me of Davie. They’re both just nice, instantly likable people with a bit of nerd flare to them. The kind of person who won’t necessarily be the center of attention, but will be charming and cut a good confessional, this is just the sort of person I can get behind. However, I don’t give Keith quite as good odds as I gave Davie, despite my liking of him. Davie made it clear that he knew his charm was a weapon, and intended to use it. Keith just seems nice for the sake of being nice. That’ll get you far, even on “Survivor”, but to really succeed on the show, you’ve got to temper that with a killer instinct. I don’t know if it’s his relative youth or his personality, but Keith just doesn’t strike me as having that killer instinct. It’ll definitely take him to the mid-to-late merge area, but I don’t see it carrying him father than that.

Chris Underwood (25, District Sales Manager, Greenville, SC): While not ALL of his pet peeves fall under the category of “doom” this time around, as I doubt many political Facebook posts will abound on “Survivor”, Chris is yet another of our “dooming pet peeves” group. You see, in addition to said Facebook posts, Chris is also not a fan of laziness, and people who can’t back up what they say. GEE, I’VE NEVER HEARD OF PEOPLE LIKE THAT ON “SURVIVOR” BEFORE! All that said, Chris seems fairly laid-back, so I don’t think his pet peeves will actually be Chris’ undoing. No, rather his personality will be Chris’ undoing. Don’t misunderstand me: the dude seems likable and easygoing, with enough athleticism to make him worth keeping around. Now, if only he were here to play the game! Chris strikes me as kind of the “surfer dude” archetype, and unless that’s backed up with a LOT of brains, it usually doesn’t serve one well on “Survivor”. Chris is no moron, but he’s no brain trust either, and so I expect him out where nearly all young, athletic males leave: the early merge.

Kama Tribe

Victoria Baamonde (23, Waitress, Bronx, NY): At first glance, Victoria would seem to fall into the same category as the previously mentioned Lauren: another bland beauty who’s there for, well, her beauty and nothing else. Reading into her biography, however, Victoria’s got a lot going on beneath the surface. For one thing, amongst her pet peeves, she lists her Guinea Pig. Now, this would at first glance merely make her seem like a horrible pet owner, until you learn that her pet is actually named “Peeve”. That’s just the sort of pun I can get behind. Further, she is the rare breed of contestant to compare herself to a previous contestant of the opposite gender, going for Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Philippines”). Not the most apt comparison in my opinion (she strikes me as a less flirty Brenda Lowe from “Survivor Nicaragua”), but I admire her willingness to think outside the box on this one. She also was valedictorian of her high school. A worthy achievement, although I do have to express my concerns about her claiming she lets everyone know this. Such braggartry can quickly become annoying on “Survivor”. Still, I’ll be watching her career with great interest. Assuming she tempers the need to brag about her GPA, I suspect she’ll do pretty well, lasting to the early-to-mid merge portion of the game, and giving us a lot of insightful commentary along the way.

Ron Clark (46, Teacher at the Ron Clark Academy, Atlanta GA): You’ll notice that I didn’t just list Ron’s occupation as “Teacher”. That’s intentional. Short of naming your children after yourself, naming your school after yourself is about the height of ego. Now, you might be thinking that Ron doesn’t have an ego, just a lot of money. To this, I refer you to him referencing HIMSELF as a sore loser, even at a simple game of “Monopoly”. Yeah, have fun on “Survivor”, guy. Every vibe I get from him is that he’s just irritating and full on himself. Add onto that him being an older player on a season that skews VERY young, along with having no obvious challenge ability (unless they suddenly combine “Survivor” with “The Price is Right” again), and you’ve got a recipe for first boot. Sad to say, but there’s just nothing about Ron to recommend him, and thus his fate is sealed.

Julia Carter (24, Medical Assistant, Bethesda, MD): As a Maryland native, let me state for the record that Bethesda DOES NOT COUNT AS MARYLAND! It’s basically just a colony of DC. With that out of the way, let’s talk about Julia as a person. If ever there was a master of the “humble brag”, Julia would be it. She has a lot of accomplishments in her relatively short life so far, and she’ll certainly mention them, but this does not mean that she’s irritating about them. She won’t be the biggest character out there, but this skill should certainly serve her well on “Survivor”. Should she get to the end of the game, should could pull out a win with a fantastic Final Tribal Council performance. She’s a dark horse to make it there, but has at least a shot at it. With a decent bit of athleticism, I see Julia securing a position as a lieutenant in the dominant alliance, and thus will probably be out in the mid-to-late merge area, though again, with enough guile, I could see her scraping a win on this one.

Eric Hafemann (34, Firefighter, Livermore, CA): I’ll admit, I had to read through the bios a couple of times to differentiate between Eric and the aforementioned Chris. Similar in silhouette and role on their respective tribes, the two do at least differentiate on personality. Both are fairly laid-back, bur Eric seems to be a bit more in the game. I don’t think he’s got the smarts to win the game, but at least he’s putting forth the effort. Eric’s game will be more intentional, but I don’t think he can overcome the stigma of the athletic male, and will thus be another early merge boot. Plus, Eric is another one with “pet peeve downside”. Sure, Eric. Hate on people who take themselves too seriously. On “Survivor”. See how far that gets you. Again, as a character, he doesn’t stand out much, but is at least inoffensive.

Aurora McCreary (32, Divorce Lawyer, Orlando, FL): Hoo boy. I’ve been complaining a lot about the pet peeves of this new group of contestants, but Aurora may be the worst of the bunch. Not to say that all of her pet peeves are likely to be on the show, but that’s mostly due to the sheer NUMBER of pet peeves she has. Let’s list them, shall we? “Know-It-Alls, ignorance, playing the ‘victim card’, any noise coming from the mouth, the easily offended, slow walkers, and people who are homophobic.” Apart from maybe those last two, Aurora can easily expect to encounter these things on the island. Add onto that the number of pet peeves listed, and the whole thing screams to me “high maintenance”, which is not a good look on “Survivor”. Don’t get me wrong: she’ll make for great drama, but she’s another pre-merge boot if I ever saw one. Will probably go out with some fireworks, but go out early nonetheless.

Julie Rosenberg (46, Toymaker, New York, NY): Julie is an intellectual with a fun-loving side. In other words, the sort of character I adore. Julie won’t be forgotten on this season, but that doesn’t necessarily bode well for her time in the game. As an older lady with a lot of ideas, I expect her to be domineering, which usually doesn’t bode well, again, particularly as this season skews young. That said, I get the sense that if anyone can overcome this obstacle, it’s Julie. She strikes me as being self-aware enough to back off and tone it down when she sees this isn’t working. But sadly, these aren’t Julie’s only obstacles. While no weakling, she doesn’t strike me as being very good in challenges, and so despite my best wishes, I suspect Julie will be a pre-merge boot. Probably a late pre-merge boot, and if she can really utilize that wit she might just make it deep, but most likely a pre-merge boot nonetheless.

Gavin Whitson (23, YMCA Programming Director, Erwin, TN): The thing that strikes me the most about Gavin is his tattoo. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fun character as well, but that tattoo has stuck with me more than a good chunk of this cast. It’s so colorful, which admittedly probably means it’s a recent acquisition, but it’s also got a fun design. Ok, ok, on to Gavin as a character. Gavin often gets compared to a kid, or at least so he says in his bio, and I can understand why. Apart from his looks, this guy has a lot of “juvenile” interests. That said, as someone else with “juvenile” interests, I can relate. With his hidden intelligence, I think Gavin has a decent shot in this game. Where I think he might falter is in his need to not been seen as a kid. He can probably hold it in for a while, but I think eventually he’ll see that he’s not seen as a force in the game, despite probably being a power player in an alliance. Thus, he will do something drastic to get himself noticed. It will work, and he will promptly be voted off for it, since on “Survivor”, you don’t want to noticed quite that much. Still, Gavin will make for a fun ride, until he goes out in the mid-merge area.

Now onto our returnees. Since we’ve got people with multiple appearances and long season names, I’ll be forgoing most of the usual biography information, instead just listing their names, current tribes and previous seasons, in ascending order of first appearance. Thus we start with:

Kelley Wentworth (Manu Tribe, “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, “Survivor Cambodia”): Breaking the trend of everyone on “Survivor” named Kelly being, as I once put it “As bland as beige wallpaper” (perhaps the extra “e” gives her her power?), Kelley is certainly not one to be ignored. Look no further, where she lists her proudest accomplishment as “‘Wentworth, does not count’ X9”. ON a more subtle note, she also lists amongst her pet peeves people who are “basically badasses”. But lest you think Kelley’s sense of humor excludes herself, allow me to again quote her, this time on the player she is most similar to: “Kelley Wentworth from ‘Survivor Cambodia’, and I think she was also on ‘Survivor San Juan del Sur’?” In case it wasn’t clear, I am THRILLED to have Kelley back. Anyone who can bring that much humor is ok in my book. Plus, as we saw on the aforementioned “Survivor Cambodia”, Kelley brings decent strategy to the game as well. Given the crop of newbies she’s up against, I expect Kelley to do quite well. She’s well above their league, and will play circles around them. That said, Kelley is just shy of being my female winner pick for the season. Why? Well, Kelley has the downside of being the most memorable of our returnees, despite being tied for the longest gap between her last season and now. Kelley just made too big of a splash last time, and everyone’s been clamoring to have her back. Amongst the community, her name is on everyone’s lips, and while this is hardly a season of superfans, I expect that to spill over nonetheless. Kelley will have a good run initially, but falter in the mid-to-late merge area, just due to the size of her target.

Joe Anglim (Kama Tribe, “Survivor Worlds Apart”, “Survivor Cambodia”): Ah yes, for all the complaints about the addition of returnees on this season, I will give credit that for the most part, CBS picked people who would be interesting to bring back. Joe is the one exception to this rule. Now, don’t misunderstand me, I quite like Joey Amazing. Who couldn’t like Joey Amazing? He’s too nice to dislike. But unfortunately while every other returnee has the potential to bring a new dynamic to their season, Joe gives no indication that he’ll bring anything other than what he’s brought to previous seasons. Joe is Joe: A likable challenge beast who just can’t conceal his threat level or form a solid meat shield strategy well enough. There’s nothing offensive about him, but we’ve seen this before, but it’s getting old. So, what would make his strategy a winner this time, when it wasn’t the two times beforehand? Edge of Extinction. You see, Joe can now just sit around, wait, be nice to people, and win challenges to get himself to the end, having offended no one. Yes, Joe is my male pick to win the whole shebang. Much as I try to keep an open mind about this twist, I can’t help but feel that it’s an ideal set-up for Joe to win. Hence, I say Joe will win. As a side note, Joe is also the only returnee to list someone different as the player he is most like, going for Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”). Oh Joe. Joe, Joe, Joe. Kim Spradlin you ain’t. If it’s any consolation, you’re most Joe Anglim-esque player I know.

Aubry Bracco (Kama Tribe, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, “Survivor Game Changers”): Do you even have to ask whether I’m excited to see Aubry back or not? As the head of the Aubry Lobby (trademark), I should hope not! That said, how do I think she’ll do this time? By process of elimination you should already know, but just in case, let me spell it out: She’s my female winner pick. My first ever two-time winner pick, in fact. It’s almost hilarious how opposite this is to the perception of Aubry coming into “Survivor Game Changers”. There she was considered a major threat, on par with the previous winners, and thus given no real chance to play the game. Thus, she got very little edit, and that plus a longer gap between the end of her last season and the beginning of this one puts Aubry in the ideal position to do well again. Granted, another season or two in between wouldn’t hurt, but it’s still a decent gap for Aubry. Add onto that a group of not-really superfans, and Aubry is poised to work her magic and take it all. Plus, again, the twist favors determination, and if there’s one thing Aubry has, it’s determination.

David Wright (Manu Tribe, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.”): David, in many ways is the opposite of Joe. I’m happy to see him back, but sadly he’s the one returnee I don’t see making the merge. David may not be the most talked about contestant these days, especially given the gap between his original season and now, but he’s hardly forgotten. This could be resolved with a bit of challenge ability, but sadly, David still does not have that. Being a long-term threat with no benefit in the short-term, David will be a pre-merge boot, which is a real shame, since I do like his self-deprecating humor. While he lists himself as the contestant he’s most like, he refers to himself needing a hug. David’s time will be short, but humorous. Sorry David, but you’re the sacrificial lamb of the returnees.

And there you have it! Before I talk about the cast overall, let me talk briefly about the “Edge of Extinction” twist. As I stated at the end of last season, I was skeptical of the idea, being similar to the “Redemption Island” twist on steroids, but was willing to give it a shot. With little new information about the twist coming with the cast release, my position is largely unchanged, though I will say what little new information we did get is not encouraging. Chiefly, it seems contestants will not be informed of the twist prior to the season starting. This is so that we can get reaction shots of people finding out post-Tribal Council, and to make it more likely that fewer will take the twist, being unknown and all. From a dramatic standpoint, I get this, as it does make for more dramatic post-vote-out moments, and definitely helps keep the drama of the vote-out itself, but just feels unfair. I know “Survivor” is not a game of perfect information, but it feels like this could screw up someone’s strategy through no fault of their own, and is just a wrinkle for wrinkle’s sake. Probst claims the idea is to see “how far people will go” to stay in the game, but he gives no evidence for how this new island will be any tougher than the regular island the show is shot on. This leads me to believe that it will be no different, and this is just a marketing gimmick. This is a shame, as seeing how far people would go in terms of deprivation IS an interesting psychological question. I just don’t think it will be answered here. If I’m looking for positives, I’m glad we don’t have a theme of the tribes this time on top off the “Edge of Extinction”, and it’s refreshing to see an 18-person season with only two tribes. The last time that happened was “Survivor South Pacific”, 15 seasons ago. Even I’ll admit, though, that’s stretching for positives.

Speaking of things negative, let’s talk about this cast overall. I’m not a fan. Now, I’m not saying these people are annoying or irritating. They all seem like perfectly nice, likable people, with a few exceptions. The problem here is that, despite making up the majority of the cast, these people seem to have the downside of the “Fans” on a “Fans vs. Favorites” season. Namely, they might be good players in their own right, but they just don’t stand out. They’re nice to have, but we want to see the returnees. We think they’re nice, but we click through their bios quickly to get to the people we already care about. For a new player to stand out on such a season, they have to be REALLY over-the-top. You’ll note that Natalie Bolton and Erik Reichenbach (both “Survivor Micronesia”) are the only fans really seriously talked about these days, and that, again, for how over-the-top they were. These newbies are all right, but no one really stands out as over-the-top. That said, I’m not sure eliminating the returnees here is the answer. It might make a couple of the interesting players (Victoria, Rick), stand out a little more, but without the draw of the returnees, I just see no hype for this cast. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t, basically. Not the most auspicious of previews, but I’ve been wrong before. We’ll see how things stack up in just under three weeks with the premiere of “Survivor Edge of Extinction”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.