“Survivor” What-Ifs: Micronesia

Greetings and Salutations, loyal readers! Welcome to the start of a new off-season column, one that I hope to make a regular feature in this and future off-seasons. As you hopefully saw in the title, I call this…

“SURVIVOR” WHAT-IFS?

As you might gather, this is to be a column where I look back at “Survivor” history, and talk about what I think would have happened if just one tiny thing had changed about it. First things first, though: I must give credit to Dalton Ross for inadvertently inspiring this idea. Dalton, towards the end of this season, posed a behind-the-scenes look at the events leading up to Erik Reichenbach foolishly giving up immunity on “Survivor Micronesia”. It’s a good read, and I highly recommend it, but the thing that stuck in my mind was just how perfectly the stars had to align for what is arguably the greatest moment in “Survivor” history to happen, and accordingly, how easily it could have gone wrong. Now, Dalton does talk about this, but he mostly confines himself to the episode proper, and what happened there. However, bored on a car trip to work the morning after, it occurred to me that there was an event just one episode earlier that could have set things on their head completely, and could plausibly have happened. I had fun going down the rabbit hole of how one small shift changes “Survivor” history so much, so I figured you all might as well. Hence, we have this column.

A couple of points to address before we do this blog. First, this is purely SPECULATION. Despite not being called “Idol Speculation”, all I’m proposing is an alternative. It’s impossible to know for certain what would have happened with one small change to the timeline here, but I’ll do my best to stick to what we know based on the edit, the personalities of the contestants, and any behind-the-scenes info I happen to know about the season. Second, since this is the first time I’m doing a blog in this format, I’ll be explaining what each individual section means as we go. This won’t be a feature in future blogs, but please forgive its presence here, as it’s the first. Third, while we will be talking about things that could have happened but didn’t, I will need to give some overview of how things transpired in our timeline for reference, so this blog is NOT SPOILER SAFE. If you don’t want to know things about this or future seasons, stop reading right now, and come back when you’ve finished.

Finally, and importantly (since I gave it its own paragraph), some might be asking “Why do this?” As I myself have admitted, it’s impossible to know for certain what happens in these alternate timelines, and does this add much of anything to the world? Apart from some fun, not much, though I would argue a good bit of fun is undervalued, and thus this may be worth more than you think. If you must find some worth, though, think of it as an exercise in showing how fragile the history of this almost 20-year-old show is, and how drastically things could have gone wrong (or right) with just a slight tweak. All that important business out of the way, let’s change some history!

THE IMPACT: This is the section where I talk about the change I’ll be making to the timeline, as well as its immediate impact on the show. In this section, I’ll define “immediate impact” as “occurring in the same episode”. Here’s also where I’ll explain what happened in our timeline. That said, since it was the events of late “Survivor Micronesia” that inspired me to do this column, it seems the best place to start. Dalton concerned himself mostly with the events of the final five, but I’m more interested in the final six in this case. Let’s examine the final six of “Survivor Micronesia”, and make one small change: Amanda doesn’t find the immunity idol. Given that I doubt Amanda would give up looking on Exile Island, let’s say that she didn’t have time to get away from everyone else at camp and dig up the idol hidden under the tribe flag. So what happens now? For this episode, at least, not much changes. Up until the end, that is. Recall that the only reason Amanda didn’t leave that night was because of her idol. With her no longer having it, the vote goes down as pretty much everyone predicted. Amanda now goes out 4-2, with only Parvati sticking beside her. Kind of a short section, I know, but this is more about setting up things to come, which happens in the section I like to call…

THE FALLOUT: This is the section where I talk about the consequences of this change on the rest of the season. This can go one of two ways, depending upon the change and the season. An earlier change or a twist-heavy season will usually necessitate talking only about the general changes to a season, as there are simply too many variables to calculate exactly what will happen. Thankfully, we start of an an example where, being so close to the end, I can talk in detail about what will happen. And oh boy, does this season get different.

Let’s leave aside for the moment that our final two are now guaranteed to be different without Amanda in the game. The entire dominant alliance is now flipped. The Amanda boot was not a unanimous “Well, I guess we have no choice.” matter, but a splintering between Fan and Favorite. Oddly, despite what our history would have us believe, the FANS were the more united out of this group. Cirie, while preferring to work with Parvati and Amanda, wasn’t willing to stick her neck out for them (partially costing her in the end in our timeline, but that’s neither here nor there), and so, with no idol, the Fans are now firmly in control. Rather than being a season where the Favorites by and large played circles around the Fans, now the season is the one where the Favorites got cocky and fractured before the Fans. But I’ll talk about that more later. For now, let’s discuss the final five. The infamous Erik Mind-Screw. Unsurprisingly, with Amanda gone, it doesn’t happen. There’s a couple of reasons for this. First of all, there’s much less incentive for it to happen. I don’t doubt that Erik still wins immunity this episode. Alexis being in the game probably doesn’t make a huge difference in that regard. While I’m sure the women still begrudgingly want him out, Natalie and Alexis have little reason to try a risky plan that could easily backfire. Part of the reason that everyone was so against Erik was because he transparently played both sides of the Black Widow Brigade, which was done, in part, because the alliance he had stuck with the previous episode had lost that vote. In this timeline, they won, meaning he now has a firmer course to take, and a course that wants him around as well. Rather than go along with the idea (if it gets suggested at all) Natalie and Alexis probably shrug, say “Whatever”, and start plotting Parvati’s downfall. Secondly, I think people underestimate the part that Amanda played in getting Erik to make the move, and I’m not talking just about her performance at that Tribal Council. Part of the impetus for Erik to flip was guilt over having voted for Amanda unsuccessfully. With the vote now being successful, that guilt is now gone, or at the very least diminished. Thus, Erik has little reason to believe he needs to be redeemed, and since he was skeptical of the “Give up immunity” plan even in our timeline, I doubt Erik goes for it. The entire tenor of the episode is now changed.

So, if there’s no Erik Mind-Screw, what does happen? Well, let’s take it blow-by-blow. Erik still wins the reward challenge, but rather than piss everybody off, he caters to his alliance with Natalie and Alexis, taking one on reward and sending the other to Exile Island. This means that Parvati, who needs immunity, is definitely not getting it this time. It is possible that Amanda tells Parvati where to find the idol if she can’t get to it, but then I suspect Natalie and Alexis watch Parvati like a hawk, and she possibly even gets sent to Exile Island instead of Natalie or Alexis to avoid this. With Erik immune, Cirie sees the writing on the wall, and joins to vote out Parvati 4-1.

Now, with both members of our time’s final two gone, and the Fans firmly in control, the finale, of course, looks quite different. We can’t know for certain how Erik would have done at the final challenges, but given that our final four immunity challenge was almost purely physical, and how much of an edge Erik had on the competition at that point, I’m guessing he wins the first immunity. With Cirie as the last remaining Favorite, she probably goes out at this point, making the finals a sweep for the Fans instead. The final three is a bit trickier to predict. The pattern of wins indicates that Erik might have won, but his forte was physical challenges, not endurance ones. He probably wins, but unlike the final four, I could see Erik losing this one. As such, while I don’t intend to do this normally on these blogs, let’s consider both scenarios. Since it’s simpler, we’ll start with an Erik win at the final three. Alexis most likely goes home at this juncture, since she was perceived as more of a social threat. In the end, it really doesn’t matter, though. Erik easily wins no matter who he’s up against. The jury really had it in for the Black Widow Brigade, and being seen as the person who took them down, Erik is loved by the jury. Parvati, Cirie, and possibly Alexis might not vote for him, but at worst, Erik is taking a 5-3 victory here. Hardly a bad showing. But let’s look at it the other way: What if Erik loses? If he loses, he’s out. The Fans might band together when the Black Widow Brigade can’t function, but now we’re down to the finals, and women against men works to their advantage. Natalie seemed stronger, so she probably wins immunity, and decides to send Erik home, both for women’s pride and calculating that Erik would beat her no question. Unfortunately, Alexis also beats her no question. She was perceived as a social threat by the jury, and given that Natalie could at times be a bit arrogant (see the tooth-flossing jugular confessional for evidence of this), I don’t see her having much hope. Thus, Alexis ends up winning the season in this version of events. But the story doesn’t end here. Read on in part 3!

THE LEGACY: This section will be about how the change in the season has an impact BEYOND the season. Bear in mind, “Survivor” does not exist in a vacuum. How different seasons play out is based on what people had seen previously. Taking our timeline for “Survivor Micronesia” as an example, fear of a women’s alliance kicked into high gear after this season, because it worked. So, by changing the season as a whole, we also change what happens beyond it. This is also why I won’t normally talk about multiple possible outcomes in the “Fallout” section, since it confuses matters here. Luckily, the impact of both an Erik win or an Alexis win is fairly similar, which is why I allowed it here. Don’t expect that in future blogs, though. That said, let’s talk through what happens as a result of this season.

First, the overarching question: Is “Survivor Micronesia” as beloved in this timeline as it is today? Most likely not. I doubt it becomes a hated season as a result of this timeline, since all the great stuff that came before it still exists, but a lot of what put this season on the map with such an impact was a combination of the Erik Mind-Screw and the rise of the Black Widow Brigade. In this timeline, neither happens, and so the season becomes much less well-received, and that’s not even counting the fact that a bunch of newbies beat our favorite players (I know people complain about how easy the Favorites have it on these seasons, but you also know fans watching would hate it if our Favorites got trashed). Not the worst of the worst, but not an icon of “Survivor”. Probably somewhere in the mid-tier range.

This, in turn, impacts “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, both in terms of who is cast, and how the season is perceived. Recall that “Survivor Micronesia” bucked the trend of “returnee” seasons being considered lackluster at best. This allowed the show as a whole to rest easy for a bit. Now, though? The show REALLY needs to get a winner of a returnee season under its belt, and so the pressure is ramped up for “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. It succeeds, of course, but it probably becomes an even bigger deal than it is in our timeline because it proved that a returnee season can work. Also, as hinted at, the cast is made up quite differently. Without the iconic “Amanda/Parvati” final two that nearly resulted in a tie, Amanda and Parvati probably don’t get invited back for the season. One could argue for Parvati, since I doubt she goes gentle into the good night after losing “Survivor Micronesia”, but given that she was considered something of a weird choice at the time to begin with, I think she probably fades into obscurity after this season, remembered only by hardcore strategy nerds. As a side note, this also means Parvati is no longer the go-to answer for young women when asked “Which previous contestant are you most like?”. If Alexis wins, she probably fills that role, but in a world where Erik wins, Natalie white (“Survivor Samoa”) probably takes that role, or else Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”) a few seasons later. Getting back to “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, I think Alexis probably takes Amanda’s spot on the Heroes, and Natalie Parvati’s on the Villains, given that they’re now seen as the iconic characters for the season, which is still relatively popular. Erik also probably gets invited back, in place of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”). Erik is either the nice young man who was one immunity away from winning, or the guy who immunitied his way to the end, depending on how the final immunity challenge goes. Basically Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”) 7 years early. Either way, he’s a MUCH bigger deal than he is in our timeline, and thus pretty much guaranteed a spot. He most fits Tom’s profile, and so probably replaces him, especially given how much “Survivor” likes its young attractive guys. For those wondering, Cirie probably still makes it on, and is still considered “robbed” in this timeline, though there’s less complaining about her losing to a twist since, you know, she didn’t in this timeline.

This, of course, means that we probably get Troyzan from “Survivor One World” on “Survivor Caramoan” instead, discounting him from “Survivor Cambodia”, thus changing both those casts, but you get the idea. That’s WAY too many layers to even speculate about how those seasons change with those casting changes. What we CAN talk about, though, is how the fallout from “Survivor Micronesia” impacts the play on future seasons. Generally speaking, rather than a “women’s alliance” being seen as the big threat to watch out for, there’s now a greater emphasis on challenge beasts, since Erik either won or nearly won on immunities alone. As such, the already established trend of voting out the strong early only gets exacerbated, to the point where being strong even gets seen as a liability. Moreover, the tenor of returnee seasons now changes. Returnees are still seen as a big threat, to be sure, but this season proved they can be conquered. Thus, there’s less reason to get rid of them, but also more incentive for returnees to stick together on mixed seasons. Rather than be “The Favorites stomp the Fans”, the story of “Survivor Micronesia” now becomes “The Favorites got cocky and got schooled by a bunch of new players”, and the returnees don’t take that lying down. They figure they’ve got to prove they can still hack it, lest they be humiliated by first timers. This makes future seasons with returnees more predictable, as no one wants to be that person that flips from the returnee alliance and humiliates everyone AGAIN.

So, that pretty generally covers how that one little change to “Survivor Micronesia” would change the course of the show. Is it better or worse as a result? While I am glad the fans get more respect in this timeline, and that new characters get developed, overall I’d say it’s worse. We largely lose out on an iconic season of “Survivor”, and end up having more predictable future seasons as a result. Be thankful. We could be living in this timeline.

And that about wraps up the first installment of “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?”! I hope you all enjoyed it, as there’s more to come. This is a new feature to the blog, so if there’s anything you think could be improved, please let me know in the comments. Also, while I have a few timelines in mind I want to alter for the next couple of blogs (partly because they interest me, partly because they’re a good mix of where timelines can be changes), I am absolutely open to any suggestions for timeline alterations you’d like to see discussed here! If I find it interesting, I might write about it! That said, if you want a chance at your timeline change being featured, there are a few ground rules:

One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independant changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in talking about it.
The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol for himself in that same episode, meaning the flip doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.

Other than that, the floor is yours! I look forward to hearing your suggestions for how to change the past to change the future! I’ll be sure to credit anyone whose ideas I end up using. Hope you like what I wrote, and see you next time!

-Matt