Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Finale: Bad at Math

There are many skills one needs to be able to win “Survivor”.  Social skills, obviously.  Strategic skills never go amiss.  Skill at finding small objects in the woods is becoming more and more of a valuable tool.  And even basic survival skills still matter, at least a bit.  But one underrated skill is being good at math.  And if you don’t believe that helps on “Survivor”, go back and watch the trials and tribulations of Brad Culpepper on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Man literally leaves because of math.  

After our requisite “ooh”-ing and “aah”-ing at the new camp, we get down to business.  Austin is, of course, rather stunned at Dee leaving him out of the vote, and it’s here we see that Austin’s math skills are a bit wanting.  He talks about having “two number ones”, something that is mathematically impossible in this context.  Still, the dude takes it all in stride.  Perhaps a little TOO in stride.  He acknowledges the “Dee lied to me” portion, but chooses to focus more on the “Dee is still here” portion.  Is he lovesick, or just that chill?  Either way, his chances in the game plummet with each frame.  All is well between the lovers, though, who share a long cuddle on the beach.  

Such a cuddle does not go unnoticed by the others, with Julie joking about sending out a party to let them know they won’t sleep until they come back.  Katurah is a bit sharper in her criticism, noting correctly that a duo is bad for her game, and needs one of them to go.  Probably Dee for being a big jury threat.  Hey, Katurah is finally channeling that anti-Bruce energy into a more strategical-sound place!  Only took all season!

Morning, of course, brings a scramble for a challenge advantage.  Honestly, this scavenger hunt is kind of lame, basically being a repeat of the “Waambulance” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Run out, find and count the things, use them to solve a combination lock, if you’re wrong you have to go back out for another look.  Take away the ropes course part, and this is a scaled-down copy.  Not the worst challenge, but hardly exciting.  

Everyone talks about the scramble for finding the things, and Dee and Austin collude with one another, but it’s Jake’s slow and steady approach that wins the day, and consequently gets the most focus.  It helps that the mnemonic device was on the editors could have fun with, since Jake associated the number with the winners of the respective season.  Hence, the combination was JT (“Survivor Tocantins”), Gabler (“Survivor 43”), Denise (“Survivor Philippines”), with appropriate clips being shown in the background for each.  As such, he wins the challenge advantage.  

Seems this episode has a thing for combination locks, because they come back in our immunity challenge as well!  They’re also Jake’s advantage, since the numbers are revealed by hurling sandbags into baskets, and Jake starts with two revealed (everyone has a different combination, so peeking off Jake won’t help).  It’s otherwise your standard obstacle course, with the only other point of note being the puzzle at the end.  It’s the Michele Fitzgerald puzzle, first seen on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  You know the one.  It always gets kicked down upon completion.  

This season upholds that tradition.  Austin narrowly wins over Jake, in part due to the latter missing a puzzle piece.  Probst, of course, rubs salt in this proverbial wound, though Austin makes up for it by taking Jake along for the “reward” portion of the challenge, a steak meal at The Sanctuary.  Frankly I’m surprised.  The move certainly makes strategic sense (keep your number one ally with two likely boots to make sure you get the scoop on all discussions), but so lovestruck is Austin, I fully expect him to pick Dee.  

Good for Jake getting some food in him, though.  Like I said at the end of last blog, the man is not completely out of it for winning, but really needs things to go right for him.  And that starts with him playing his idol correctly in order to idol out a threat, preferably Dee.  In order to do this, it’s best if no one (save possibly Katurah) knows about it… And then Jake starts spilling his guts about it to Austin.  Yeah, see why I don’t give this guy great odds?  Worse still is his stated intention to target Julie.  Not a bad one, but again, I think Dee might be the better bet, at least in terms of jury clout.  

Luckily for Jake, Katurah is there to talk him out of it.  She makes a good argument for targeting Dee, and Jake agrees to switch his vote.  After telling Katurah about his idol, the pair agree to draw votes onto Jake, then have their two be a majority with Jake’s negated votes.  

Unluckily for the pair, Austin immediately spills to Dee about Jake’s idol.  Again, great move, dude!  About the only bright spot is that Julie doesn’t believe that Jake’s idol is real, and so is going to stick voting him.  Dee plans to stick on Katurah, the backup plan, leaving Austin in the air.  With votes split this way, even if Austin votes with one of Dee or Julie, you can still get a majority with the idol played correctly.  As long as nothing else goes wrong for Jake.  

But no!  Even Jake’s professed allies cannot be counted upon!  Worried about Jake being flaky (which Jake has many faults in this game, but flakiness is not among them, from what we’ve seen), Katurah makes him swear on his grandmother to vote for Dee.  Because nothing bad has ever happened on “Survivor” when people swear on their grandmother.  

If I haven’t made it clear already, voting out Dee is the correct move for basically everybody.  Gets rid of a jury threat, and while Julie and Austin would lose a close ally, numbers are small enough now that it doesn’t really matter.  Do I think it will happen?  Not with a vote this fractured, but we’ll see.  

Tribal Council is sadly a boring affair pre-vote.  Standard double talk, and not even an honorable mention for fun moment.  That is, until we vote.  The vote is genuinely up in the air, plus there is Jake’s idol to consider.  Say what you will about Jake, but the dude is a showman through and through.  He makes a big deal about his idol play, busting out a Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) impression along the way.  Gotta say, it was a spot-on impression.  Confusingly, he plays it for Katurah.  At this point in the game, I’d have played it for myself, but I guess Jake’s reading the room that votes are going for Katurah?  

If so, he’s reading them badly.  Katurah does get one vote from Dee, eliciting a fun happy reaction from Jake.  Then Jake gets a vote, eliciting a pissed reaction from Jake.  The next two votes, going for Dee and Julie, just elicit confusion, with the final vote going for Julie.  I am sorry to see her go.  She was surprisingly strategic, and brought a certain charm to the proceedings as a whole.  You will be missed, Julie.  

Because having Emily be confrontational right out the gate wasn’t enough fights for the season, we have to squeeze one more in right before the Final Immunity Challenge.  Really, Jake and Katurah need to unite to hope to take out Dee or Austin.  Granted, that just amounts to “Win Final Immunity” at this point, but still, unity would be nice.  Instead, the two start throwing the blame around for why that vote didn’t go the way they wanted.  Jake is upset at swearing on his grandmother and Katurah backing out of it anyway, while Katurah is upset at Jake playing his idol incorrectly, leading to her not voting out the person she wanted gone anyway.  Frankly, both of them come off looking bad here.  Jake, you’re a superfan, you should know what swearing on a loved one means in this game (read, not much).  Yeah Katurah kind of burned you, but this reaction seems over-the-top, and disproportionate to the situation.  Don’t think you’re getting off though, Katurah.  Yes, Jake could have communicated more with you, but that’s a two-way street, so you’re not blameless.  Moreover, you’re in control of your own vote, and if you thought you were going regardless, why not throw a vote on Dee on the way out, just to say you tried.  It’s true you didn’t MAKE Jake do anything (applied a lot of pressure, certainly, but never forced), but by the same token, Jake did not make you do anything either.  Don’t throw your bad moves onto him.  He has enough of his own.  

Really, all this scene does is show the audience more clearly why an anti-Reba movement never really fostered at Belo.  Too much infighting and mistrust for them to work together.  

Our final immunity challenge, like the first immunity challenge, is nothing to write home about.  Stack seventeen bowls, which can be knocked over by wobbling a frame you step through.  Pretty standard challenge at this point, but at least it isn’t “Simmotion” again, so I’ll take it.  

The only major thing of note in this challenge relates, unsurprisingly, to Jake.  He and Dee are the two frontrunners in the challenge, with Austin and Katurah knocking their stack over often.  Jake, however, slips up, leading to the need to recollect his pots.  So many pots that it takes multiple trips.  Jake then gets the idea to walk atop the frame, rather than through it, for a faster time when jostling doesn’t matter.  

What DOES matter is structural integrity, since Probst warns Jake that if he breaks the challenge, he’s out.  Sure enough, a few moments later, the structure snaps, all but assuring Dee’s victory.  Jake’s salty in the moment, but that warning seemed pretty clear, and it looked like Jake had the chance to correct what he was doing.  Would have been best if this had been said before the challenge, but even so, this loss is squarely on Jake.  Probst doesn’t call this out as a “Survivor” first… and rightly so.  Yeah, this is the most blatant it’s been, but there’s been at least one time someone “broke” a challenge, leading to their disqualification.  The final 8 of “Survivor Africa” had an immunity challenge where you had to build a fire to burn a rope.  If you hit the rope with your supplies, you were disqualified.  Brandon did so, and got disqualified.  Good on Probst for remembering at least some of the show’s history, even if he didn’t talk about about.  

Dee wins, in case it wasn’t clear.  Wonder how the long toe helped in this one?  In any case, Dee and her toe must now decide who goes into fire.  There’s not much mystery, since she quickly settles on taking Austin to the end based on their relationship.  Annoyingly, the meta of fire-making being part of one’s “resume” comes up, with both Jake and Austin asking to go into fire.  Katurah’s the only one who resists, perhaps explaining why I like her in spite of some poor strategic moves on her part.  It’s to no avail, however, as Dee is worried about Katurah being a social threat on the jury, the one type of threat I would say Katurah is.  Thus, she wants her out, and believes Jake best-equipped to do it.  

But didn’t Jake almost faint into the fire early on this season?  Not sure he’s the best in fire.  Neither is Austin, who pitches to be put in as being better equipped to take out Katurah. This idea seems to have a bit of merit, as when Austin checks on Jake, the man has no fire, and seems checked out of continuing to try.  A decent-enough misdirect, but Dee’s too smart for that.  With how they’ve been able to get basically nothing going, this would not be enough to put either Katurah or Jake over the top for some jury votes.  Austin is more well-liked and had more agency, so it MIGHT be bad to have him do fire.  

Sure enough, that’s what happens.  Yeah, there’s discussion at Tribal Council, but once again, nothing of merit.  Katurah and Jake go into fire, and while not a blowout victory, Katurah’s repeated smothering of her fire means Jake eventually wins.  Once again, the methodical approach takes off.  Jake finally got his “W”, and he and Probst take a moment to bask in it.  Jake talks about how far he’s come since he was an underconfident 15-year-old.  We then go to Katurah, leading to this conversation:

PROBST: Katurah, what does this game mean to you?

KATURAH: Well Jeff, to me it means I never told anyone I was a lawyer.  

I’m kidding, but only slightly.  It DOES turn into Katurah using this as the lawyer reveal, we get our shocked reactions, and we move on.  

Continuing on the efficiency kick this episode has been doing, we cut between our final three breakfast and “jury speaks” videos.  Our contestants themselves don’t lay out the arguments, instead talking about their relationship with each juror.  Instead, the jurors make the arguments.  Jake overcame the greatest odds to be there, as the only non-Reba to make finals.  Dee was well-liked, and able to maneuver behind the scenes, and Austin was generally the most overtly social of the three.  Which will win out will likely come down to their arguments.  That said, Jake still seems on the outs.  I have to make note that he said “I took myself here.”  Sure, Jake.  Sure you did.

Weirdly, we don’t get opening statements this time.  Perhaps they were filmed but not shown?  Doesn’t really matter this time, as we get some good arguments from all parties this time around, and I’d dare to say the “New Jury Format” is the best it’s ever been!  Sure, it’s still more of a group discussion, and no one’s called up to speak, but every juror asks basically one question, and Probst doesn’t really contribute to the proceedings.  It’s the original jury format without all the showmanship, and a bit less equal speaking time (Emily speaks a bit more than once, and Bruce says basically nothing).  If this is the compromise needed, I’ll gladly take it!

Unfortunately, for all I like this new, balanced format, none of the questions really stand out.  Like I say, it all comes down to the arguments.  Jake gets built up by the jury initially, and really pushes the narrative of him lasting this long.  It’s his best card, and he does a good job arguing it.  

Sadly for him, it’s clear the jury largely see Dee and Austin as the power-players of the season.  Weirdly, the two remain cordial for a good chunk of the Tribal.  Dee gives Austin co-credit on most moves, and Austin argues for Dee better than Dee herself, being the first one to bring up her not bringing him in on the Drew vote.  Austin’s advantages get praised, but so do Dee’s social skills.  When they DO start going after each other, however, it’s tit for tat.  Austin puts a feather in his cap about strengthening the Reba alliance with Emily, Dee brings up bringing in Katurah.  Dee talks about orchestrating Kendra’s ouster, Austin brings up orchestrating Kellie’s ouster.  Back and forth the two go, though Dee does seem to claim a slight edge by noting that Austin told her about the Julie plan the night Emily went home, while she did not do the same for Austin on the Drew boot.  Seems like a close debate between the two, but given this better line of argument coming out at the end, I’d give the edge to Dee.  

The votes reflect this.  Kaleb gives Jake some false hope by calling out “J!” In the voting booth, a la Jonathan Penner’s “DENISE!” On “Survivor Philippines”, but ends up being a Dee vote.  A decently fun call back for the audience, but I’ve gotta imagine a bit hurtful to Jake in the moment.  Credit to this season: It’s not a 7-1 slam-dunk this time.  Indeed, it almost looks like a tie, but it ends up being 5-3 in favor of Dee.  Probably the right call.  Both had their strategic gems, but with how lovesick Austin became toward the end, Dee was clearly the superior choice.  The votes for Austin come from Drew (presumably for being his close ally), Kendra (for being more social/simpatico with Austin), and Bruce (there is no fathoming how Bruce’s mind works, particularly when we don’t hear from him on the jury basically at all).  A solid outcome on what ends up being a great season.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  We still have a couple of things to cover before my summation.  

Our reunion show, despite my preference for the old format, is decently solid.  We hit on most of the topics one would hope to hear about.  Dee and Austin’s relationship.  Emily’s growth.  Kaleb’s shot in the dark play.  All that sort of thing.  One interesting bit is Probst bringing up the fact that Austin was an alternate this season, getting called in last-minute.  A bit of trivia common-knowledge amongst the superfans, but probably not as well-known to the casual audience.  Moreover, Probst talks about some other contestants who were also alternates, bringing up Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) and Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  He notes that there seems to be something successful about being an alternate.  He of course fails to mention that Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”) and Spencer Duhm (“Survivor Tocantins”) were ALSO alternates, and had much less success, but I suppose that doesn’t fit his narrative, and Probst wants to forget that Guatemala exists.  Still, fun trivia for the uninformed.  

Also, next season looks ok.  Seeing the audition video clips is fun, but otherwise nothing to write home about.  I’m not concerned about “Survivor 46”, but I’m not jumping out of my seat to get to it either.  

Really, there’s only two major omissions in terms of what we discuss.  One would be asking about why Little Lulu was such a disaster of a tribe, presumably omitted for the lack of Lulu left, apart from Emily and Kaleb, and another knock against the new reunion format.  The other, which I’m surprised they didn’t talk about, or at least didn’t show, was how Jake would have voted if it HAD been a tie.  He himself seemed a bit unsure, but if I were to speculate, I’d say he’d go Austin.  He seemed closer to working with him than he did with Dee at times.  Still, who knows?

We end off this episode, much like it began, with a whimper.  I’ll save my season thoughts overall for after we check back on my pre-season cast assessment.  As for this episode, it was just ok.  I was never bored or angry at it, but I was never particularly thrilled either.  It came in, did its job adequately and efficiently, and then left.  Not bad for your standard episode, but kind of ho-hum for your big finale.  As such, let us more to the more exciting cast assessment comparison!

Austin: Wrong initially, though I became more right as the season progressed.  He WAS good at using his appearance and demeanor to hide how devious he could be, until his lovesickness got the better of him, and he became the mask, as it were.  

Brandon: My wish came true, even if my prediction didn’t.  In my defense, I didn’t think Brandon would be THAT bad at challenges, and had I known, I’d have given him much worse odds.  Still, unequivocally wrong here.  

Emily: Wrong, and thankfully so.  Her personal growth was a highlight of the season.  

Brando: The closest yet to being right.  His tribe was not the disaster I predicted (though once they started going to Tribal, they kind of ended up that way anyway), but he placed about exactly where I thought he would.  

Hannah: Mostly right, though I didn’t call the quit.  Though really, who could?

Bruce: I nailed his personality, and the reasons he would have an issue with the other players, but partly due to avoiding Tribal Council so long, he lasted much longer than I expected.  

J. Maya: She left for basically the reasons I expected, but earlier than I anticipated.  Partially right on this one.  

Drew: Sort of the opposite sibling to J. Maya.  I again nailed the personality, but Drew lasted longer than I anticipated in spite of that.  

Julie: Flat out wrong.  She had much more game, and was much more tempered in her confessionals, than I had anticipated.  

Jake: Well, I did call him a dark horse to win, and he DID make it to the end.  He had no shot at said end, but even so, I’ll give myself this one.  

Katurah: Wrong, though it would be hard to anticipate the single-minded anti-Bruce focus that arguably tanked her game.  

Kaleb: Dead right, for once this season.  

Kellie: Completely wrong.  Much more of a presence than I expected, and much longer-lasting.  

Sifu: He couldn’t adjust his personality to the others, and was out earlier than I thought as a result.  Another wrong assessment for me.  

Kendra: Yet another for the “right on personality, wrong on time in the game” pile.  

Sean: He may not be the WORST winner pick of “Idol Speculation”, but he’s definitely a top contender.  Again, if I’d known he’d be THAT bad in challenges, I’d probably have changed my rankings.  And again, hard to anticipate a quit.  

Sabiyah: Another of my few right calls this time around.  

Dee: Wrong.  Girl had the skills to back up her talk that I simply did not call.  

And there you have it.  Ranking this season on the heels of “Survivor 44” is a bit interesting, since I would say they have the same flaw.  Namely, one power alliance goes through to nearly the end basically unopposed.  Yet, I found it frustrating then, but don’t mind it here.  A lot of that, I think, boils down to the 90-minute format.  This allowed time for building more decoy winners, and giving us a larger sense of who the cast was and why they did what they did, than 44 could have allowed.  Yes, the last few episodes were a bit of a slog, and knowing the outcome does drag the season down, but everything up through the final seven boot was overall so great that I’d still call this a top-tier season!  That said, it’s the lower end of top-tier due to the Reba 4 never being stopped.  They had more plausible opportunity to be stopped, and their gameplay more subtle, which I think makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow than on 44.  

If you’re curious as to where exactly I’d rank this, I’d put it around the same level as “Survivor 42”, the other “New Era” season I’d consider top-tier.  Frankly I could see arguments for putting one over the other for both sides, and I think it comes down to whether you prefer a season with more developed players all around, but a more predictable outcome, or a more mysterious outcome at the cost of some characters being forgettable.  As someone who puts a lot of emphasis on rewatch value, I’d favor the latter, giving “Survivor 42” the edge, but I would not argue with anyone who prefers the reverse.  

In any case, feel free to let me know what you thought of this season below, as we await “Survivor 46”.  I’ll be taking my break for now, but look for me when the new cast is announced, and the discussion resumes!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 12: The Babysitter’s Club

Yeah.  I went there.  Bet you never thought you’d be seeing me reference THAT franchise in this blog, did you?  Unfortunately I don’t know much about it beyond the fact that it exists, so don’t expect any deep-cut jokes about it here.  Instead, expect another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Evidently all it takes for me to start messing up repeatedly is to mention how I haven’t been doing just that.  Thankfully these two are quick and relatively minor.  Opposed as their edits might be, it seems that Katurah, despite having little to no chance at winning, speaks for the fans, since she based Final Four Fire-Making last episode.  Conversely, Dee sucked up to the producers, talking about how long the game felt in relation to her budding romance with Austin.  Listen to Katurah, production.  

Our return from the unfortunate ouster of Emily is appropriately enough a somber one.  Eventually the mood is broken by a sarcastic outburst from Julie, the best kind of outburst, and as we’ll see throughout the episode, the best kind of Julie.  Sarcasm does not beget good strategy, however, as it seems last Tribal was where Reba brain cells went to die.  Despite pretty much everyone knowing that Dee must have tipped Julie off, with Drew even saying this is what would happen if Austin let her in on the plan, which they know he did, they still think they can hide being a pair.  Their acting is terrible, which even Dee cops to, but even with brilliant acting, which no one should be buying.  

Shock of all shocks, Austin buys this.  Man really has just become, in the words of Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Philippines”), “Booty Blind” hasn’t he?  Seriously, Austin, I get wanting to believe the best of Dee, but you have to look at the game objectively at SOME POINT, you know.  Drew looks to have lost the fewest brain cells, as his “mistake” in my eyes is more subjective.  When Julie interrupts the group with a hug and asking for the Reba 4 to come back, he just says that’s a pipe dream.  Fair enough, but he should make at least SOME pretense of considering it, if only to blindside Julie more easily.  

Old Reba may have lost their brain cells, but old Belo hasn’t.  Their stock was low to begin with, but hey, they’re trying.  After an awesome transition from the logo at the end of the intro to the logo of the tribe flag, Katurah gets up early to go idol-hunting, on the grounds that Julie’s idol is likely re-hidden.  Fair enough, but Dee and Austin wake up shortly after.  Realizing what must be going on, they go off after her… Because they don’t want Julie finding the idol.  Um, how does THIS prevent Julie finding the idol?  Granted it’s a good thing to do, and you don’t want Katurah finding it either, but the stated logic and what actually plays out doesn’t make sense.  We then get a repeat of the tension as to whether Katurah will find something before getting found out or not, and in this case it’s not.  She and Austin have a cute-yet-awkward moment, and we move on.  

Drew, being more calm in the morning, talks to Julie about how the Reba 4 are very much still a possibility, which Julie seems to eat up.  Privately, neither of them really believe this, particularly since Julie has the receipts to prove she was turned on first.  When she talks to Dee about going after Drew as “The Mastermind”, Dee is on board.  Good news for Jake and Katurah, as they would likely be swing votes in that scenario.  

Our reward challenge, while unoriginal in being a five-piece slide puzzle, is still fun to watch.  This is mostly just for the middle leg, where we get to see everyone comedically balancing on a barrel in order to grab keys.  Always good for a bit of physical comedy.  Austin ends up crushing this challenge, winning a picnic NOT at The Sanctuary for once, but The Sand Spit.  Probst asks if he’s ever been, which how could he have, and then has Austin pick people to come with.  Austin, still thinking with his crotch, takes Dee, and then ends up taking Katurah so that he leaves behind the people he wants to leave behind.  Real subtle there Austin.  

Ok, joking aside, I actually don’t hate this for Austin at all.  It’s.a bit blatant how close he and Dee are getting, but the logic makes sense.  Take a close ally for strategy, then leave people who won’t strategize behind.  Not to say that Drew and Julie in particular aren’t bitter about it, but in the end they’re more against each other than mad at Austin.  

Thus begins Drew’s stint as babysitter… And BOY does he suck at it!  While it is funny how blatantly everyone talks about this being his job, he then fails by immediately letting Julie and Jake go off together, watching each other.  Perhaps he thinks Julie is still too much on the warpath against Jake for them to strategize, but he’d be wrong.  The two talk about idol hunting, and idol hunting they go.  Jake has a humorous bit where he talks about them “Hunting for Peppers”, only to admit they’re definitely looking for idols.  They don’t find anything, but the scene is at least mildly amusing.  Not hiring Drew as my babysitter anytime soon, though.  

Keeping up the “Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud” theme for this episode, the helicopter taking Austin, Dee, and Katurah to reward (yes, that WAS all the helicopter in the preview was building up to) does the “screw you” flyby, which the group on the beach comments on.  Those in the helicopter do get back at them, by noting how, even at a distance, Drew was obviously pissed.  

You’d hope for some strategy talk on reward, but Katurah quickly realizes she’s the third wheel.  She talks about how she’ll keep her eye in the game, and then we never hear from her again until after the challenge.  Instead, we get a long scene about how Austin and Dee are falling for each other in spite of themselves.  It’s schmaltzy, and I just can’t get into it.  I think the big problem is that, prior to now, the romance was never brought up or emphasized.  Look, Boston Rob and Amber had their fair share of schmaltz on “Survivor All-Stars”, and I wasn’t huge on it there either, but at least it felt EARNED.  By the time we got to this level of open affection, we’d seen them bonding and flirting for a good long while now.  Here?  Two episodes.  Just not the same.  

Not helping matters is that this ends with a contender for worst flashback backstory to date.  Austin talks about overcoming being awkward and not good-looking as a kid.  It barely ties in to what they were talking about, and for me, isn’t on the level of emotion it seems to feel it merits, particularly following on the heels of the heart-rending one from Katurah last week.  Look, everyone has their own struggles, and I don’t want to minimize anyone’s personal journey, but this one just didn’t do it for me.  

Back from commercial, and Jake decides he needs to do something to take the game into his own hands.  To that end, he resumes his idol hunt, using his knowledge of where Bruce found the re-hidden Lulu idol to his advantage.  He finds a clue telling him the idol is in a secret compartment in the raft, a la “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  Jake strips down to his underwear, telling us he doesn’t mind since he had to be on his underwear onstage in a college production.  Not sure why Jake feels the need to do this, but I suppose he could have a cover story about preparing to launch the raft, and it gives us a reason to see his goofy print boxer shorts, so I’m not complaining.  

From where the audience sits, the “secret compartment” is very obviously a false end to a bamboo shoot, but to be fair, I feel like it would be tougher to spot on the island itself, and Jake finds it fairly quickly.  Good for him.  I still don’t think it will get him the win overall, since his “goat” status just seems baked in whatever he does, but it’s something to hang his hat on.  A hidden idol helped Maryanne to victory on “Survivor 42”; maybe it can get Jake at least a bit closer.  Probably vaults him above Katurah in my rankings, anyway.  

Probst calls our immunity challenge “original”, but honestly, he’s exaggerating.  This is basically the challenge where you balance a vase on the end of a board with your foot, just replacing the vase with a ball and adding some barriers to the board so the challenge doesn’t end super quickly.  Kind of a “meh” challenge overall.  Not helping matters is that Julie, the de facto target, is out first.  Our challenge comes down to the lovers, Austin and Dee, and I’m honestly surprised Austin doesn’t forfeit for Dee at this point.  Given his amulet to keep him safe, and how lovesick he is, I was sure he’d drop out.  Ultimately a moot consideration, though, since Dee wins anyway.  I blame the toe.  

With Julie not being immune, and receiving every vote at the last Tribal Council, she is naturally the default target.  Jake, however, wants to take the game into his own hands, and pitches to Julie voting out Drew.  She’s on board, and Jake is able to get Katurah on board.  Still, when Katurah suggests looking in Dee as well, Jake shuts her down, going back to his “Force a tie, convince Austin or Dee to flip” plan.  As he himself notes, it’s basically a carbon-copy of his plan to save Kaleb, and that didn’t exactly end too well for him.  Worse still, it’s pointless.  As Julie mentions, Dee was already on board to vote for Drew, and Katurah confirms this independently later.  

Let me be clear: This is the wrong move for Jake and Katurah.  I’m looking at this purely from their perspectives as the swing vote, since obviously Drew and Austin don’t want someone taken out of their pair, and Dee and Julie the same, so they’re obviously going to vote for the person outside their pair, as well they should.  Now, in-game, I get where Jake in particular is coming from.  You want Reba to break up, but you want it to be in the way you orchestrate, not how they choose to do it themselves.  Not just go with the flow.  I get that.  The flaw in this is that, since Dee would be in on it anyway, even voting out Drew won’t come off as a move you orchestrated, but one Julie and Dee orchestrated.  Thus, it comes down to which person to vote off is more of a jury threat, and while Drew is no goat at the end, he’s easier to beat than Julie.  Not to mention that Drew has been more open to work with you, so it keeps more options open for the future.  

Still, Jake and Katurah’s determination, combined with SEVERAL arrogant confessionals from Drew (I wonder if players realize how these will make them look when giving them?), all but guarantees his exit.  So, what could possibly make us doubt?  The same dilemma as last episode, but in reverse!  Now DEE needs to consider whether or not to let AUSTIN in on a plan, especially since Austin has an amulet that could keep Drew safe if he’s clued in.  While this misdirection is as lame as it was last episode, the parallel shots and confessionals when compared to that episode are a nice touch.  

Sadly, not even this is enough to provide good mystery, since unlike with Austin, we never actually see Dee tell him.  Combine this with her being the more openly strategic/less lovestruck of the pair, and there’s no way she told him.  Thus, Drew will go.  At least we get some fun Tribal Council bits out of it.  The babysitting thing is brought up again, along with the return of Sarcastic Julie, the BEST Julie, about how the “Mom” is now getting babysat.  To his credit, Jake also gets in some good snark as well.  But the winner for entertainment has to be Emily, over on the jury.  Overall, this has been a pretty happy-go-lucky jury, always excited to see what happens.  Emily?  Nothing but a death glare the entire time.  Hilarious.  

Austin chooses to play his amulet, which I can’t blame him for.  He plays it for himself, which given his information, I can’t blame him for either.  Unfortunately for him, it was Drew who was targeted, and goes.  Can’t say I’m overly sorry.  Drew wasn’t the worst guy by any means, but his arrogance at times rubbed me the wrong way, and even if it was predictable, it still felt like a deserved exit.  

Probst them informs the group of the move to a new camp, which they seem shocked about for some reason.  Not sure why.  This is a known thing to happen at this point.  “Survivor 44” proved that.

Yeah, sad to say, this episode is not up to this season’s standards.  Nothing but romance and the occasional good bit of sarcasm to recommend it, and the former in particular just didn’t do it for me.  Nearly nonexistent misdirection and overall bad play just mean this episode falls flat in a way not a lot of other episodes this season, outside the quits, really have.  Shame.  Hopefully the finale can do better.  

Before we get there, however, time for my usual “Likely Winnerhood” rankings.  As a reminder, this is where I list the remaining players from most-likely to least-likely to win, based on the game itself.  This is not how likely they ARE to get to the end, but how easily they win in the end, regardless of who they’re up against.  

1. Dee-This spot is usually reserved for the “If they get to the end, they win” person, and this season that can be no one but Dee.  What she has said has gone in terms of boots, and she hasn’t really made enemies.  She was called out as a threat early on, and in spite of this, has managed to largely avoid getting targeted through effective management of relationships.  As long as she doesn’t completely botch her Final Tribal Council answers, she has this in the bag.  

2. Julie-The main thing holding Julie back from the number one spot for me is the “Mama” label.  Much as everyone talks about her as a major jury threat, and much as what we see indicates that’s true, people labeled “Mama” on this show have historically not done well.  Still, if anyone can buck the trend, Julie can.  Nickname aside, she seems genuinely well-liked, and has the Emily boot to her name.  I think she’s in the best spot if she gets rid of Dee, so Julie alone can claim credit for strategic moves the pair made, but we’ll see if she’s willing/able to do that at the end.  

3. Austin-The last few episodes have really made Austin’s end-game stock plummet.  Dude had some strategy to his name, and trinket plays to put on his resume.  But man, he just comes across as a love-struck moron of late.  He still seems fairly well-liked, which is why I don’t have him lower, but he probably wants to sit next to old Belo at the end to have a real shot at this.  Maybe this vote will be a wake-up call for him, but I doubt it.  

4. Jake-Prior to this episode, Jake would have been at the very bottom.  Dude was being dragged along as a goat very clearly, and never had much agency at any vote he was involved in.  He could hold up surviving being the default boot at a number of merge Tribal Councils, but you could say the same for Romeo on “Survivor 42”, and look how well that went for him.  Finding the idol this episode does raise Jake’s stock a bit, and if he can play the end-game perfectly (and I mean Chris-Underwood on “Survivor Edge of Extinction” level perfectly), he MIGHT be able to pull it out, particularly if there’s a lot of anti-Reba sentiment on the jury.  Sadly, this is a tall order, the goat impression is hard to shake off, and I don’t see this jury being particularly bitter.  Not impossible for Jake, but an extremely uphill battle.  Things will have to go exactly right for him to pull this out.  

5. Katurah-The only person I don’t see any scenario to win at this point.  A shame, really, as I probably like Katurah best out of all those left (Julie is a close second).  But when you’re a one-track-mind against Bruce, then do basically nothing to contribute to his ouster?  Unless you’re up against clones of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”), that’s not enough to win, and no one here is that despised.  Sorry, Katurah.  Just not your time.  

Will these predictions be right, or will I look like an idiot once again?  Find out next week in the finale!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 11: What’s Love Got To Do With It?

For once, I don’t have to come up with a clever tie-in to the title so I can have a lengthy start so the preview for the blog doesn’t spoil anything!  Yes, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This season has been relatively gaffe-free on my end for once, but this past episode brought us a couple.  Mainly, during the immunity challenge, I focussed so much on the forced moment with Katurah that I neglected to even mention Probst’s OTHER weird moment.  He compared the immunity challenge to “playing a game at a carnival while eating a scone.”, which Jake rightly called him out for.  Several people have already pointed out that there’s no “endurance” carnival game like this, and I 100% agree with Jake’s assessment.  That said, that’s not the thing I personally find the most ridiculous about the whole speech.  While not a carnival game in and of itself, if you squint, the challenge KIND OF looks like trying to climb up a narrow, flimsy rope ladder, which is a game I have seen at carnivals.  No, the thing that I find ridiculous is Probst citing a SCONE as a common carnival food?  That is NOT what I think of when I think of carnival food.  Look, I’m sure there’s SOME carnival out there that has served scones at some point, but there are much better ones you could have used Probst.  Say “Funnel Cake”.  Say “Fried Pickle”.  Hell, say “Dippin’ Dots”!  I’m pretty sure every American would get that last one.  Is there a Dippin’ Dots that ISN’T at a carnival of some form?

The other “gaffe” is more an omission, and a bit more somber than the above.  I wanted to take this time to clarify that my enjoyment of Katurah’s getting a letter from her mom, despite going no-contact, is predicated that the presentation we were given is truthful.  Specifically, that it was a HAPPY surprise, and not re-traumatizing Katurah.  If it was, then shame on whoever contacted her mom in spite of this, and shame on CBS for providing it, since I’m assuming they knew.  

New Year’s has come early to this camp, as the exit of Bruce is met with wild exaltation from all parties.  As you might expect, Katurah in particular is happy he’s no longer there “bossing everyone around”.  About the only sour note to be hit is from Julie, who is surprised that Bruce went for her.  Now we know, of course, that Emily pulled the wool over Bruce’s eyes on this one, but of course, she’s going to be smart enough to save that information for Final Tribal, where she can pull it out as a trump card if people claim she did nothing this game…

Or she could come clean to the entire group, thereby raising her threat level considerably, and thereby pissing off Julie for having her be targeted once again purely for Emily’s gain.  Look, Emily has made GREAT progress in the game so far, but she really dropped the ball with this move here.  I can get where she’s coming from: You save your story until the end, and people might believe you’re just making stuff up.  But you’ve got Bruce to spread it on the jury, and that’s who matters in the end!  All this does is raise your threat level, and piss off someone you probably need if you plan on taking control.  

Sure enough, we hear from Julie… Congratulating Emily on a great move.  WHAT?  Who are you and what have you done with Julie?  Every other time your name’s come up, it’s been time to swear vengeance.  But this time, you’re cool with it?  Consistency is all I ask, Julie.  

The “Raised Threat Level” problem does come up, after the Reba 4 get together on the beach for their own private celebration.  They echo basically every internet comment section for last episode by reiterating that these people are idiots for not breaking them up.  In deciding who to target next, they land on Emily, for the aforementioned raised threat level, as well as having lots of friends on the jury.  All fair points, if the foursome really do want to stick together, as they indicate.  

But, of course, there’s sub-alliances within an alliance.  We know about the pairs of Drew/Austin and Dee/Julie, but it seems there’s another pairing of Dee and Austin.  It’s been hinted at a couple times, but here outright confirmed that the pair are slipping into, if not a showmance, then at least something showmance-adjacent.  Ironic for Dee, who outright said pre-season that this was the one thing she didn’t want.  Hell, Austin out-and-out compares them to Boston Rob and Amber on “Survivor All-Stars”, complete with old footage of that season.  Um, Austin, not the comparison I’d make, if I were you.  See, you’re Boston Rob in that situation, and while in the aggregate that’s probably a good thing, on that particular season, didn’t end so well in terms of his winning.  Just saying.  

Morning does bring reflection, and the reflection that Jake and Katurah have is one of two people who are screwed.  Still, they try to stay optimistic, with Jake noting that at least he’s still here.  Katurah for her part continues to feign like she knows nothing about being an attorney, to stay on Jake’s good side, and Julie ends up joining them.  Yep, the three attorneys bonding, even if at least one of them isn’t open about it.  

Still, Katurah feels the need to contribute, and so opens up a bit more about her past, providing a good segue for a flashback.  Basically, she never attended middle school.  As she tells it, she was pulled out after fifth grade for what she initially describes as “religious reasons”.  She was to be home-schooled, though in her telling, after the first few weeks, it became “Figure it out for yourself.”  She then clarifies that what her parents had joined was actually a religious CULT.  Yes a full on cult.  Not a “Public schools teach sinful ideas; remove your children from them” type situation, as one might initially guess from her description.  I mean a “Your children can be randomly selected to become one of my many wives” type of cult.  

THANKFULLY, Katurah being selected as one of said brides (at the age of 13, no less) was the straw that broke the camel’s back, and Katurah’s mother was able to get them out before that went any further.  As such, when Katurah re-entered school, they just stuck her in high school since that was the age she was then.  This, per Katurah, is what fueled her desire to become an attorney, and make the life she always wanted for herself.  It’s a really touching scene where the flashbacks work well, and it all hits home really hard.  Good on you for making your own life, Katurah.  

Not relevant to the flashbacks, but I do have to say, even if her situation was terrible in every respect of the word, the pictures of toddler Katurah were actually adorable.  

Anyway, production must interrupt the nice scene!  A boat comes saying one person must go on a journey.  Jake, back on his “I need some agency” kick, wants to be the one to go, but unfortunately if more than one person volunteers, they draw rocks for it, with the green rock going.  Since pretty much everybody has a reason to want at least information, if not power, they all draw, with Emily being the “lucky” winner.  She herself seems a bit put-out about the situation, but ultimately goes anyway, figuring she should make the best out of it.  

So everyone starts talking about targeting Emily immediately.  Well, I say “everyone”, but it’s mainly Dee and Julie.  The latter in particular is keen to keep the Reba 4 together, while Drew asks some leading questions about whether she wants to use her idol for clout.  Note the use of “Her” idol.  Despite all indicators earlier being that Austin was just letting her hold his idol for safekeeping, it seems that Julie is refusing to return it, and everyone just considers it hers now, retroactively making Austin’s move less good for him.  Understandable in the moment, but if you’re gonna give someone an idol, you’d better be sure they’ll give it back, or at least use it how you want.  Just look at how well those assumptions worked for J.T. on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  

This conversation, however, clues both Julie and the audience in to Drew’s true feelings.  As he puts it, his commitment to the Reba 4 was purely from the buzz of a successful Bruce blindside, and in the light of day, he’s not sure it’s his best bet.  While he does agree that he can’t take Emily to the end at this point, he also notes Julie as another jury threat who’s probably more loyal to Dee than anyone.  Conversely, Emily is probably more loyal to him, and since Katurah and Jake are thinking along the same lines, concocts a plan for them, along with Austin, to blindside her and get rid of the threat of an idol messing things up.  Julie does at least clue Dee in on Drew wavering, but for now, Dee is committed to Emily being the one to go.  

Speaking of Emily, she’s taking her time alone to reflect on her game.  How she was nearly voted out first, saved only by Hannah’s quit, and how she altered her game and improved as a player since then.  You know, just to rub salt in the wound for how this is going to end.  In all seriousness, it’s a bit schmaltzy, but for a swan song for my favorite player of the season, it works well enough.  

Emily’s “decision” at the end of the journey is this: The puzzle from the opening “Savvy and Sweat” challenge is back, and she can try and do it under a time limit if she wants, or just go back to camp.  If she does the latter, nothing changes.  If she does the former, her puzzle abilities determine the outcome.  If she succeeds, she has immunity.  If she fails, she’s not only vulnerable, but she also has no vote.  A tough choice.  With the numbers this low, it makes sense that the “Reward” part of “Risk vs. Reward” is so strong, since votes are more valuable now.  Plus, Emily can guess that she’s going to be talked about at camp, making immunity all that more enticing.  At the same time, the low numbers mean her vote is likely necessary in any vote she’s not involved in, and thus a loss all but guarantees her exit.  

In the end, she decides not to go for it, which I’d say is probably the right call.  Not having a vote really limits her options, for only the CHANCE at an immunity that’s dependent on her puzzle skills, which thus far have been nothing to write home about.  Plus, you never know, the immunity challenge could be “Sort these actuary tables”.  I mean, it probably ISN’T that, but I wouldn’t have called her winning the last reward challenge either, so it’s not impossible.  And, of course, keeping her vote allows her to play her Shot in the Dark, if things really go south.  

Arriving back at the camp, Emily comes clean about the choice she was given, and her decision not to take it.  She says she plan to use her strengths, being honest, blunt, and forthright, to her advantage here, in the hopes that people will accept it as truth.  Shock of all shocks, Dee doesn’t believe her.  Luckily, Emily is at least AWARE that she’s being targeted.  Drew confirms that Dee and Julie are against her, and clues her in on the plan to blindside Julie, which Emily is naturally all in on.  

We’re off to our immunity challenge, which is the pretty standard “Untangle ropes” obstacle course, but at least the puzzle at the end is pretty difficult.  There’s two issues for it.  One is that the blocks are arranged into a self-supporting arch, and given the length of the answer (“Resourcefulness”), it’s not going to be easy to keep it held up, even if you do get the answer quickly.  The other is that the blocks have letters on two opposite sides, and BOTH sides must spell the word correctly to count.  No easy feat with so many repeated letters in the answer.  Note that Austin TECHNICALLY got the word first, but only on one side so it didn’t count.  Point being, great puzzle, substandard challenge otherwise.  

This is not a challenge involving actuary tables, and Emily falls behind quickly.  My hopes for a Kass-like comeback are dashed when Drew ends up winning out.  Still, good for him.  As he notes, he’s not the type of guy you’d think would win immunity, so it’s a good moment for him.  Along with immunity, he also gets a do-it-yourself barbecue feast that he can ultimately bring two people along for.  He decides to counter the girl’s night from last episode with a boy’s night, bringing along Jake and Austin.  Kind of makes his strategy obvious, but with the numbers dwindling, that’s not a major sin.  

It also leaves the girls with little to talk about, since it’s well known that the pair of Dee and Julie are targeting Emily, with her and Katurah targeting Julie right back.  Both sides make a token effort to pretend Jake is the target, but neither of them truly buys it.  Instead, they spend their time reading off the disclaimer on their buff, which for some reason is not on the ones they sell for fans.  Whoopee.  

To be fair, there’s little dissension to make things interesting on the guy’s side either.  Pretty much all are in agreement that Julie is a jury threat and too much in Dee’s corner.  While Emily is a jury threat as well, she’s more likely to work with them, at least in the immediate future, and so agree to target Julie.  Coming back and reaffirming that Emily and Katurah are on board, the plan seems set.  

So of course, Austin’s libido has to mess everything up!  He agonizes and agonizes in confessional about whether to clue Dee in or not.  We can all tell that he’s basically talking himself into doing it; it’s just a matter of time before he does the dumb thing, doesn’t he?  Yet the show insists on drawing it out, even putting a commercial break in his and Dee’s conversation.  

Spill the beans he does, though, reasoning that Dee is a close ally, and she wouldn’t trust him if she didn’t.  I agree that she’s a close ally, but Austin, better for her then to have NO close allies but yourself, no?  Take out one of the numbers for her, so she has no choice but to stick with you!  She’ll be pissed, certainly, but what other choice does she have?  I doubt she’d even hold a grudge too much outside of the game!  Just doesn’t seem like her style.  Austin feebly tries to rationalize his move by saying that he’s pretty sure Dee will go along with it and not tell Julie.  

Literally the next shot is Dee telling Julie to play her idol and act her ass off.  

Goddammit, Austin.  

Look, I’m not knocking Dee here by any stretch.  It’s absolutely the correct move for her.  The choice between Julie and Emily is one for whether the Drew/Austin faction of Reba will have power after tonight, or the Dee/Julie faction.  Given that Katurah and Jake are shown talking more strategy with Emily and Drew, it makes sense for everybody not in the Dee/Julie faction to target Julie, just as it makes sense for those in said faction to target Emily.  I just hate how predictable it makes things.  

Still, let it not be said that Julie cannot provide some drama.  Upset about the whole thing, she fake-targets Austin to Emily and Jake in the hope that this will scare people away from voting her.  This information quickly gets back to Drew and Austin, with Austin letting everyone else know that he informed Dee, which everyone else seems a mite pissed about.  Still, they agree to move forward, and even Dee is now voting Julie to help sell the lie.  She encourages Julie to play the idol and vote Emily.  However, Julie’s fake targeting of Austin has now become REAL targeting of Austin, both for breaking up the Reba 4 (she’d probably prefer to target Drew, but he’s immune), and because he’s Dee’s close ally, and she doesn’t like being told what to do.  

I sympathize with Julie here, but even with my bias, the correct move is for Julie to vote off Emily if she’s playing the idol.  Austin’s stock, while not the worst, is beatable for her.  This is unlike Emily, who I think beats Julie at the end.  Yes, Austin being an ally of Dee’s is a long-term concern, but for now, Dee’s really the only one working with you.  Better to do what keeps your one ally happy, even if it is “Going with the flow” at this point.  Besides, there’s the risk that Austin plays his amulet when you play your idol, and he says he’s going to bring it with him, and might play it.  

Sadly, pre-vote, our Tribal Council is kind of a snooze-fest.  Few annoying metaphors, but nothing really to write home about.  Best moment is easily Probst giving Drew flak for finally NOT giving a soliloquy when asked a question, in this case about how it feels to win immunity.  That said, with everyone BUT Julie locked in on voting Julie, we get the rare opportunity in the modern era to hear voting confessionals, as we see everyone but Julie vote.  Most are pretty respectful, but I think the best two of the night come from Dee and Katurah.  Dee simply says “Play the damn idol.”, while Katurah gives the following great diss: “If this fails, I blame Austin and his stupid emotional heart”.  Not quite Wendell’s vote for Chris on “Survivor Ghost Island” funny, but definitely up there.  

Unfortunately for me, Julie does the smart thing, and sends Emily packing.  Can’t say I’m sorry.  Talk about a nothing character…

Of course I’m joking!  This was HEARTBREAKING for me!  Emily was easily my favorite character this season, and seeing her growth was a phenomenal journey!  Plus, her winning would have been a hilarious bookend to the season.  From presumed first boot to winner.  This stuff can’t write itself!  Sadly, we must content ourselves with the time we had, and it was a great time.  Emily goes out with a lot of class, and I look forward to seeing her on a future returnee season.  I’m pretty sure she’s a lock, if she wants a spot.  

Despite my heartbreak, I have to say this was still a great episode.  Very emotional, good storytelling.  Maybe not the best mystery, but the heightened emotions and a few good one-liners more than make up for that.  About my only major concern as we head to the endgame is that it seems like no one can stop Dee on her road to victory.  Hopefully I’m wrong, though, because otherwise this season would be very predictable.  

Goddammit, Austin.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.