Dear readers, I would like to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to. That said, I cannot do so in this case, due to the fact that the world is ending.
Yes, hell hath frozen over, pigs are flying, the whole works. We have hit the apocalypse, my friends. How do I know this? We had a cast release on a Tuesday. You know, the day “Survivor” does not air on. We have broken one of the immutable laws of the universe. Matter can neither be created nor destroyed. Force equals mass times acceleration. “Survivor” casts drop on the same day of the week that episodes premier on. And since I haven’t heard about the show switching to “Tuesdays”, this can only mean the world is coming to an end.
Still, I suppose we might as well enjoy ourselves while we await our inevitable demise. Let’s take a look at my thoughts on this new cast, starting with…
Claire Rafson (25, Tech Investor, Brooklyn, NY, Soka Tribe): Starting strong out of the gate, Claire is one of my two picks to win the whole thing. Yes, seriously. The woman is just too solid a competitor. She compares herself to two solid winners in Michele Fitzgerald and Natalie Anderson (“Survivor Kaoh Rong” and “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, respectively), and makes a good note of what qualities she needs to utilize from both. Specifically Michele’s social game and Natalie’s willingness to cut ties when necessary. A blend a likability and cutthroatness can be lethal, game-wise, and all in a very unassuming package. Admittedly Claire doesn’t seem like she’ll be the BEST in the outdoors or in challenges, but she doesn’t seem like she’ll be a sink in either area either, and given that her tribe seems like it’s the most well-rounded in challenges overall, I suspect she’s in it for the long haul. If you REALLY want me to find weaknesses in her game, I would probably say her age and her pet peeves. Claire is on the younger side for a winner, but as Maryanne taught us in “Survivor 42”, it’s by no means a deal-breaker, and I think this self-described “queer black Jewish woman” has those skills, helped by the fact that she’s clearly a longtime fan (something that, as I’ll discuss later, does not seem to be as universal amongst this cast as it has been in recent seasons). Slightly more concerning is her pet peeve, which is people who are not self-aware, something that can describe many a previous contestant, and will doubtless apply to some this season. Given her savvy, plus her tribe’s possible lack of early votes, I think Claire can ride this out for the long haul, and emerge as our eventually winner. I know, I usually pick two winners, and still intend to do so this season. But put a gun to my head, and force me to pick just one, I’m going with Claire. Plus, the woman listens to young-adult novels on tape to go to sleep (specifically “The Hunger Games” in her case), and can I just say, I feel seen?
Matt Blankinship (27, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Soka Tribe): This guy stole my first name, he stole my hairdo. Man’s just a thief overall! I kid, I kid. Either way, though, I suspect this guy will be rewarded like a thief, and receive a harsh sentence. That sentence, in this case, being an early exit. Matt had better hope that his tribe truly IS the dominant one of the season, because I see him going at their first Tribal Council. Given the makeup of the tribes, I doubt he’s the overall first boot, but when the opportunity arises, he’s toast. There’s several of the “nerd” archetype this season, and while not the most egregious example of this, Matt is the most clearly visible. Everyone nowadays knows this archetype is a threat, and coupled with a usual lack of skills in non-puzzle-based challenges (which, admittedly, are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth these days), they are an easy early target. It takes a great deal of skill to overcome this obstacle, and while Matt is far from the worst person I’ve ever seen in terms of game sense, he’s no genius in that territory either. The thing that clinches Matt’s poor chances for me is him talking about his failures in life. It is refreshing to someone so open about their past mistakes, admittedly. He chickened out for applying for the show the first time. He failed to get a job. He failed college. It’s good, uplifting stuff that he kept on fighting in spite of this, but does not bode well for a winning game. Matt is a pre-merge boot, but hey, maybe he can learn from this failure, and find success on a returnee season? Stranger things have happened.
Carolyn Wiger (35, Drug Counselor, Hugo, MN, Tika Tribe): Remember how I said people in psychology and psychology-related fields, unless they are Denise Stapely of “Survivor Philippines”, don’t do well on the show? Yeah, don’t be looking for Carolyn to buck that trend. Seems we’re getting all my extreme takes out of the way early, since Carolyn is my pick for first boot of the season. While by no means “old”, she definitely fits the mold the show has for an “older woman”, one of the more vulnerable archetypes to be perceived as at the beginning of the season. Carolyn also lists a lot of worldly things that she likes, makeup and potato chips and whatnot, that make me question how well she will do in the outdoors, only making her more vulnerable. On top of that, when asked to compare herself to a previous player, Carolyn says she’s most like Noura of “Survivor Island of the Idols”. About the best thing that this comparison says about Carolyn is that she has good self-knowledge. Yeah, Noura ain’t exactly the comparison you want to make if you’re looking for success in this game. Yes, Noura made it deep, but that was in part due to a large win streak from her tribe, giving other people time to rub the tribe the wrong way. While I maintain that there will be no “disaster tribe” for this season, if there IS one on some off-chance, it will likely be Tika, putting Carolyn in an early vulnerable spot. IF she somehow makes the merge, expect her to go deep as a goat, but unfortunately for her, I expect her to have a very short shelf-life this season. Good on her for doing the real-life work she does, though. Very necessary, but very difficult.
Yamil “Yam Yam” Arocho (36, Salon Owner, San Juan, Puerto Rico, Tika Tribe): One of two contestants currently living in a US territory at the time of casting this season, Yam Yam bookends the unintended theme this blog of “Get the extreme takes out early”. Yes, Yam Yam is my second winner pick for this season. You may remember Yam Yam from the preview we got at the end of “Survivor 43”. He was the guy excited to poop in the ocean. This may have you thinking “Well, the guy will be a fun character for sure, but winner equity? Not seeing it.” But as Maryanne proved on “Survivor 42”, being a good character and being a good strategist are not necessarily mutually exclusive. In fact, Yam Yam’s personality could work to his advantage, as his strategizing won’t make him as visible a threat, thanks to his “wacky” exterior. The man has admitted to surviving 90 days without electricity following a hurricane, so I’m going to say he’s got survival bona fides. Yes, his challenge prowess might not be the best, but unless his tribe goes the route of Vesi last season, and cuts off their worst at challenges when they just can’t take it any more, Yam Yam is here for the long haul. People will want to keep him around for his humor, and I’m confident he could use his charm to his advantage. Man compares himself to Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) for a reason, and he’s the only person I’ve yet seen to have NO pet peeves listed in his bio whatsoever (though that could just be a quirk of “Entertainment Weekly”, where I usually go to read them). Honestly, the only concern I have with Yam Yam is that he DOES remind me so much of Maryanne. She may have proved big characters can still be good at strategy, but her doing so means people will be on the watch for such a game. Given that “Survivor 42” was the last season this cast saw, it will be VERY fresh in their minds, and that could put Yam Yam in trouble. Otherwise, expect him to be around in the end. Besides, he’s endorsed by Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), and who am I to disagree with The Queen?
Lauren Harpe (31, Elementary School Teacher, Mont Belvieu, TX, Ratu Tribe): After several novella’s worth of character bits to talk about, we finally have someone who we can go over without some big rant involved. Lauren should do fairly well in this game, but aside from her hair, which is awesome, I don’t expect her to make any big waves in this game. I think she should have some good skills interpersonally. After all, managing a bunch of elementary school kids is one of the undersold toughest jobs in this day and age. And mad respect to her for raising kids as a single mom, another undersold tough job. Her pet peeve is a bit concerning, in people who don’t own up to their mistakes, but I’ve seen people with way worse peeves do well, so I won’t hold that much against her. I don’t see Lauren being the major mover and shaker in an alliance, but she seems skilled enough to work her way into the core of a major alliance, and probably hang on until the early-to-mid merge or so, where she’ll be taken out as a safe boot. Possibly she’s even one of the “split tribal” boots at the final 10, assuming they bring that back again. Not knocking my socks off, but a solid player I predict will do decently well.
Danny Massa (32, NYC Firefighter, Bronx, NY, Soka Tribe): While perhaps not quite to the same degree, Danny is very much the Jonathan Young (“Survivor 42”) of this cast. Not so much in the sense that he will win challenges single-handedly, but in the sense that physically, he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the cast. That said, I don’t see much strategic chops from him beyond surface-level stuff, and his pet peeves are the most concerning so far. Bullies and whining are both decently common on this show, and I could see them getting under Danny’s skin. On the flip side, however, this makes Danny a very good alliance member. Skilled in team challenges, loyal, but not bright enough to strategize against you in any threatening way. As with most challenge beasts, Danny will be a target as soon as the merge hits, and unless he gets an alliance as tight as Jonathan’s, will probably be out in the early-to-mid merge area.
Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (43, Engineering Manager, Pittsburgh, PA, Soka Tribe): For her own sake, Heidi had better hope her tribe IS a major force in the challenges, because if things shake out relatively even in terms of who goes to Tribal Council, she is an easy early target. I love her enthusiasm, and we stan a board-game lover on this blog, but the fact simply is that Heidi is the oldest person on her tribe, and that person is almost always vulnerable early on. Add onto that someone who self-describes as “loud”, a personality trait that gets very irritating very quickly when you can’t get away from it, and an enthusiasm for the game that, while admirable, frequently leads to playing too hard, too fast, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for a pre-merge boot. Her pet peeve, “rude people”, doesn’t help matters any further. Again, unless her tribe just completely bodies the immunity challenges, I don’t see Heidi having much of a shot moving forward. About the only other thing worth mentioning is that she is one of a few people this season to mention Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) in their “who are you most like?” question, something that doesn’t really impact my thoughts on how they’ll do, but DOES point to an interesting trend that I’ll discuss more when we come to the final thoughts on the cast/season preview overall.
Carson Garrett (20, NASA Engineering Student, Atlanta, GA, Tika Tribe): It’s revenge of the nerds! Carson is the second (of three) overt “nerd” archetypes this season, and like with Matt before him, I think it helps spell his doom. Man’s certainly got the studying down, though. 3-D printing puzzles to practice them beforehand. Studying up on the statistics of the game. Correctly identifying himself with Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”). The man is doing his best to set himself up for success, and I do like the guy. Man loves board games in general, and Settlers of Catan in particular. Can’t fault him for that. But the man has too many little things working against him. I mentioned the “nerd” archetype being a threat, but the fact is that he’s just too young for me to consider him doing well. I know I said Maryanne proved that age is less of a factor than we might have previously thought, but there is a limit to how low one can go, and I’m just not sure this guy has enough life experience to connect with people, and consequently do well in this game. Finally, there’s his tribe. I doubt Carson will be the FIRST target from his tribe, he needs to not go to Tribal Council too-often pre-merge, yet finds himself on probably the worst tribe for challenges. Rough luck, my dude. Another pre-merge boot in my opinion. As an aside, the man DOES have probably the longest list of pet peeves, but most of them, apart from mosquitoes, are things he’s unlikely to encounter on the island, though I suppose production could put him on a tribe with negative vibes/moon-landing-deniers just to mess with him.
Maddy Pomilla (28, Charity Projects Manager, Brooklyn, NY, Ratu Tribe): Not content to have Elie Scott (“Survivor 43”) on just once, production let her change her name, occupation, and location, then brought her back immediately. Apart from physical resemblance, Maddy and Elie exude the same energy. Decently game-savvy, but still overestimating themselves, and energetic to the point of annoyance. Maddy will be a strategist, but an overly-visible one, and therefore an easy target. Given the large merge sizes of recent seasons, expect Maddy to be our merge boot, or perhaps our “Mergeatory” boot, if that’s really what we’re calling it now. Too visible not to take out at an opportunity when an easy consensus boot is needed. She will burn brightly, but burn (relatively) fast.
Bruce Perreault (46, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, Tika Tribe): Our oldest contestant (though admittedly only by a few years) on this season, I would not blame you for not expecting Bruce to be that old at first glance. True, the man does not look like a spring chicken, but you could easily shave 10 years off his age, and I’d believe it. This implies he’s relatively fit, ergo not a challenge sink, ergo less likely to be targeted for that reason. That said, there ARE reasons to be concerned about his game, at least in my opinion. While the man is in insurance, thereby effectively a salesman and presumably social, the man gives the shortest answers by far in his bio. A welcome break in reading, to be sure, but does not imply, to me at least, good sociability. Think of him like Rocksroy (“Survivor 42”): Not unlikeable, but very set in his ways and not going to sugarcoat stuff. He’s one of two players who very much give off “dad vibes” this season. Useful on a tribe that’s likely to be fairly chaotic early, but could also isolate him. I think Bruce needs to hope for a very even split of Tribal Council attendance in the pre-merge, since there are people I’ve discussed on his tribe who would likely be targets before him. If they ARE closer to the disaster tribe, his perceived lack of sociability will likely catch up to him, and Bruce will be out likely in the pre-merge, though probably the late pre-merge, if I had to guess.
Sarah Wade (27, Management Consultant, Chicago, IL, Tika Tribe): If someone can ride out the chaos that is this tribe, my money’s on Sarah. Apart from her career implying she knows how to handle disparate personalities, the woman is a long-time fan, and so knows the game quite well, while appearing unassuming, another deadly combination in this game. Not enough stands out about her for me to really go so far as to say she’ll win, but she was definitely one I considered for the title, and will probably make it far regardless. Mid-to-late merge I’d say. Her pet peeves are relatively unassuming (loud chewing, rule followers, close minded/inflexible people), though she could run into some in the game, another slight mark against her. Also, she references multiple times how the passing of a close friend inspires her in life. A tragedy for her, and my heart goes out to her for her loss, but expect her to be the one we get MULTIPLE flashbacks to. No way the show isn’t milking that for all it’s worth.
Matthew Grinstead-Mayle (43, Barbershop Owner, Columbus, OH, Ratu Tribe): Hoo boy. Let’s tally the list, shall we? This guy shares my first name. He lives in the same metropolitan area as me. We bear some superficial similarities, being large, hirsute, barrel-chested guys with bushy beards. This guy is my favorite of the season in part because I’m basically OBLIGATED to root for him at this point. So, do I think he’ll win? Eh… I think he’ll make the merge, at least. The dude gives off SERIOUS dad vibes, even more so than Bruce whom we just discussed. Not a bad thing, but it makes me question how good he’ll be at the game once things really get cutthroat. On top of that, dude has a LOT of pet peeves. Admittedly, most of these are food-related, and unlikely to come up, but the two that AREN’T, specifically people who talk in circles and people who dominate the conversation (or presumably both), are something he’ll have to watch out for. While I appreciate him comparing himself to Elaine Stott (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), an underappreciated player, his further comparisons to Shan Smith (“Survivor 41”) and especially Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) are concerning. Admittedly his take on the former is that she was the social center, but should he bring in her cockiness, he might be in trouble. As for Ben? Well, a nice enough guy, but good strategist he ain’t. I don’t see Matthew going SUPER early, but expect him out no later than the mid-merge, when the game just gets too cutthroat for him to keep up. Of course, this is assuming he’s not one of the medevacs we saw in the season preview, since it seems like it was likely him falling off the rock in the preview. He has the closest build, and does have the right buff color, assuming no swap. Then again, these previews also made us think Tori Meehan was getting an idol on “Survivor 42”, so I’m not going to go so far as to say he IS for certain a medevac.
Helen Li (29, Product Manager, San Francisco, CA, Tika Tribe): Rounding out this tribe is the OTHER person I have confidence can ride this thing out, regardless of if the tribe ends up being a disaster. Helen’s another bona fide fan, making good references from recent seasons (comparing herself to Erika Casupanan of “Survivor 41”), all the way back to season 2 with Tina Wesson. Preparing for the future while learning from the past. I like this woman. Her unassuming pet peeves help as well, as a lack of toilet paper and cars on the island mean two out of her three are non-factors. Disrespectful people might be an issue, and that plus a potential lack of challenge prowess keep Helen from the winner’s spot for me. Still, all else being equal, she should have the good game sense to weather early storms, and make the mid-to-late merge period. I’d even have her as a dark horse to win, if it comes to that.
Josh Wilder (34, Surgical Podiatrist, Atlanta, GA, Soka Tribe): Josh seems nice. Yeah. That’s really all that needs to be said. Dude is decently athletic, seems likable enough. Should do well. I don’t think he really has the killer instinct needed to be truly great, but unless he makes some major social gaffe none of us see coming, he should be safe. No reason to vote him out early, and not enough of a strategic threat to be an immediate target come the merge. Man is one of the better challenge competitors on paper this season, so expect his threat to rise in the mid-to-late merge, and see him go there. Be aware, as well, that he’s another contestant who regrettably had tragic medical hardships at a (relatively, in some cases) young age. Something called “Prune Belly Syndrome” at birth, necessitating a kidney transplant, and stomach cancer at age 25, necessitating the removal (and presumably transplant) of his stomach. Dude’s been through a lot, and expect to hear it in multiple flashbacks. In truth, I expect Josh’s biggest risk early game to be the fact that, due to the aforementioned transplants, he’s on immunosuppressants, and so I could see him getting some tropical disease that makes him one of the medevacs of the season, though I would hope that production, if they thought he was at that much greater a risk than others, would not have let him play the season in the first place.
Jaime Lynn Ruiz (35, Yogi, Mesa, AZ, Ratu Tribe): Jaime wins the award for “Most Unusual Occupation” this season! Good thing, too, as she’s not winning many other awards. Similar to Carolyn, whom we discussed earlier, Jamie is not “old” by an objective measure, but fits the “older woman” archetype as far as this show is concerned, and that’s a problem. She claims to be a day one fan, and perhaps she is, but comparisons only to recent seasons make me question that. She’s another Angelina stan, and again, we’ll get into the significance of that later on. She also has a lot of enthusiasm, as evidenced by a large number of all-caps words in her bio. As a viewer, I appreciate it, but on the island, could be grating. I will say she avoid any even mildly concerning pet peeves, but she’s likely the worst challenge performer on her tribe, so unless she has above and beyond social skills, I don’t see her lasting very long, unfortunately. Chalk her up as another pre-merge boot.
Kane Fritzler (25, Law Student, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, Ratu Tribe): Rounding out our nerd trio is Kane, and he is an exception to my thoughts on these types this season. That is to say, Kane will be voted out for reasons OTHER than his nerddom. Don’t misunderstand, Kane has a few read flags. Likely not the best in non-puzzle challenges. Describes himself as “loud” which I’ve already expressed as a concern for others. Admittedly not any concerning pet peeves, but this is little comfort. No, sadly for Kane, he is doomed before he starts by his nationality. What’s wrong with being Canadian, you might ask? Erika and Maryanne, that’s what. The last two times there has been an opportunity to do so, a Canadian has won this show. This, in the minds of this case, who JUST saw “Survivor 42” end before coming out, makes Canadians a threat. Possibly Kane can try and pass himself off as an American, but that’s a big lie to keep up, and if there’s somehow another spelling challenge, he’ll give himself away. Unfortunately, by virtue of his place of birth, Kane is a goner. Another pre-merge boot. And to those who say “So two Canadians won back to back, no big deal!”, I would remind you that it took only ONE successful women’s alliance (after at least three failed attempts at one, if you’re being really picky about what constitutes an “attempt” at a “women’s alliance”) for contestants to have a fear of women’s alliances that arguably persists TO THIS DAY. I give it at least 3-5 years before the paranoia dies down to the point where a Canadian can win again.
Frannie Marin (23, Research Coordinator, Cambringe, MA, Soka Tribe): If I were to describe Frannie in one word, it would be “quirky”. Not too surprising, considering she compares herself to this blog’s beloved Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”). She also says that Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”) and the Scarlet Witch are her heroes, which we can get behind. Likability does not always translate into success, though, and these traits that we the audience love could end up being a detriment to Frannie’s game, if they are in excess. Thankfully, Frannie also seems to be able to tone it down when needed, as evidenced by her not-too-wordy bio. She’s also another with no listed pet peeves, though again, that could just be a hiccup of how I’m reading these bios. Couple this with her likely being on the strongest overall tribe for challenges, and I see Frannie making it to the early-to-mid merge. She’s not subtle enough to win, but should make it decently far, and will certainly be fun along the way.
Brandon Cottom (30, Security Specialist, Newtown, PA, Ratu Tribe): We end our cast assessment with the most “celebrity” of these contestants. His occupation may be “Security Specialist”, but Brandon is more well known as a linebacker for the Seattle Seahawks. Brandon pretty well fits the archetype we’ve come to expect for sports players on “Survivor”. Decent, if not great, at challenges. Generally charming, but not as much game sense. A good team player who likely can’t win, but unless their fame is well-known, should make the mid-merge area or so. Brandon is pretty bog-standard in this category, so I don’t see that much more needs to be said about him than that. They wanted another by-the-book sports player on this show, and that’s what they got.
And thus, we round out the cast assessment, and I am hyped. While I struggled to find things to say about a LOT of the cast of “Survivor 43”, here I struggled to find people I DIDN’T have a lot of things to say about, for good and for ill. That bodes well for at least an entertaining season. But let’s talk about some miscellaneous topics, shall we?
No more delaying, time to address the Angelina in the room. While it wasn’t as common as I thought on first read, it DID seem like people were mentioning Angelina more than they had in previous seasons. What’s more, most of them were looking at her in a new light, saying she got a raw deal in the edit. Is this some sort of Angelina Renaissance? No, I think it’s an indication that, if these people are fans, they’re very RECENT fans. Recall that “Survivor David vs. Goliath” was recently on Netflix, getting wider exposure than a lot of the other seasons of the show have had in some time. It probably got a lot of new people interested in the show, thus explaining why Angelina seems to pop up, at least to me, more than she normally would. This makes me doubt who deep their fandom is, but at the same time, this might be a good compromise. I’m on the side of liking superfans on the show, but I can see the other side, who want people clueless about the game to prevent gameplay that feels overused. As such, getting recent fans who know the game to a degree, but not encyclopedically, might be a good middle ground we can all enjoy.
On a more negative note, I HATE these tribe names. Apart from running afoul of my dislike of short tribe names, this season, perhaps more than any other, REALLY shows why staying in Fiji long-term is an issue. Eventually, you run into similar sounding names, making it harder to distinguish tribes between seasons. Here, I’ll do the rundown of similar names for the tribes right now: Ratu=Ravu, Soka=Soko, Tika=Tiva. And that was just of the top of my head! I’m sure I’d find more similarities if I actually did RESEARCH on this. Not to mention, I’m surprised that the show was even ALLOWED to use “Ratu” for a tribe name. I may not know much about Fijian culture, but one thing I DO know is the definition of “Ratu”, that being “chief”. The OTHER thing I know is that Fijians are VERY picky about how the term gets used. Jokes or irreverence for the term are a big no-no, and so I’m amazed, assuming they even had permission, that the show got to use it. Even if so, though, it does not excuse the similar names. Show, either come up with better names, or better yet, SHOOT IN LOCATIONS OTHER THAN FIJI!
Finally, while I did not consider medevacs in my placement predictions, and don’t think it’s fair to ask me to predict effectively an act of God with little outside evidence, here are who I think are the most likely medevac possibilities: Matthew due to the preview showing probably him falling off the rock, Lauren since we can assume Ratu loses someone besides Matthew from the preview and I think we would have remembered her hair, Carolyn due to her age/general lack of physical survival skills, and I’ll throw in Josh as a wild-card due to the immunosuppressants concern I voiced earlier.
So there you have it, my thoughts on the cast! Let me know what you all think, and assuming we’re still alive and the show is still airing in this apocalyptic hellscape, I look forward to blogging the premiere of “Survivor 44” for you all!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 