Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Finale: Predictably Predictable

Say what you will about this season of “Survivor”.  For all its ups and downs, for all the experiments it never took its eye off the fact that it needed to tell a story.  Particularly in the latter half of the season, the story took precedence, rather than the experimentation, and for that I am grateful.  If nothing else, it made the finale a fun watch.  Bear in mind, though, that a good story is not necessarily an unpredictable story, as this finale, for all of its strong points, may be one of the most predictable ones in recent memory.  

But before I can tell you THAT story, I have to tell you THIS story!  Yes, it wouldn’t be a finale blog without one final edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty brief one this time, but a mess-up nonetheless.  You see, last episode I neglected to mention Deshawn living out one of my dreams, which is to snark back at a Probst catchphrase.  Specifically, when Probst offers the “Candy or Chicken” reward, he asks, as per usual, “Worth playing for?”  Deshawn says “No”, and says he wants family letters instead.  I know he got made fun of for this, but I’d say it was pretty understandable and sympathetic.  Granted, I’ve always wanted to snark more at “Wanna know what you’re playing for?” and “Once again, immunity, back up for grabs”, but that’s just me.  

We start off the true finale with Probst once again talking directly to the audience, though for once, I’m actually ok with it.  It feels like a substitute for the old “season recap with Probst narration”, and therefore more appropriate.  We also replace the “Reason why everyone will win” bit with the contestants building themselves up, which is more natural and does a better job of hiding the true contenders than the former option.  Even the clips of the season being projected on flotsam I can get behind, as it’s just the kind of hokiness I expect from “Survivor”.  I do get a little nervous when Probst talks about “One new twist”, but it turns out he’s just referring to reading the votes and doing a “season recap” on the island instead of live.  Unfortunately, but a necessity due to COVID restrictions, so it’s all good.  

That said, I do have to question the wisdom of removing the recap ENTIRELY.  True, it takes up a lot of time, but for people just tuning in for the finale… Oh, who am I kidding.  No one does that anymore.  No one channel surfs anymore.  Streaming media has not only taken away my best argument for why “Survivor” should leave Fiji once in a while, but now it’s also taken away the need for recaps at the top of episodes.  

Getting back from Tribal, Deshawn is of course in hot water over his “truth bomb”.  In an effort to show what he’s learned, he DOES act humble about the whole thing and admit it wasn’t very good, but the damage is done.  Though the pair make nice the next morning, neither trusts the other.  Contrast with the relationship between Erika and Ricard, which has only strengthened, and Ricard is going to make sure it stays that way.  Recognizing that he’s the biggest threat, Ricard wants to keep someone else on everyone’s mind, and with Deshawn blowing up his game last episode, he is that someone.  Ricard does this, but awkwardly using Deshawn’s proper name as often as possible.  Look, the PRINCIPLE for Ricard is sound, but man is it awkward to see him put it into practice.  

Sadly, my hope for no more advantages, especially in the finale, is dashed, as one final note is given to the contestants.  They must unscramble letters into words, then those words into a sentence, before going off to find said advantage, with the first one to do so getting it.  It’s a decent puzzle, and nice that they put it on screen for everyone at home to play along… IS WHAT I WOULD BE SAYING IF THEY LEFT IT UP THERE FOR MORE THAN 5 SECONDS AT A TIME/  REALLY, WHAT WAS THE POINT?  I will credit it, though, that it did tie into the “Game within the game” aspect.  If you didn’t play along on the website, basically every puzzle you solved, in addition to a question about the next episode, gave you a few letters, which would unscramble to a phrase.  The phrase in this episode, in fact, which is a nice touch.  

Once decoded, the phrase says the advantage is in “dancing trees”.  Erika is the last to solve the phrase, but it matters not, as she finds her advantage in a tree that frankly looks like several other trees out there.  Distinctive in its own way, I guess, but there were trees in the background that looked more like they were “dancing” to me.  Erika’s advantage for once comes with no downside, and is just a challenge advantage at the next immunity challenge.  As it’s not the final challenge, I’m ok with this.  Good for Erika!  

Speaking of said challenge, there’s sadly not much to speak about.  Your usual obstacle course with two puzzle ladders, and a 70+ piece logo puzzle at the end.  Bog standard fare, but it does come with the Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) Memorial Reward of kebabs for two.  Erika’s advantage also turns out to be a bit OP, since half of her ladders are solved already.  This gives her a major lead into the puzzle, one she’s able to keep throughout the challenge.  Yeah, there’s no competition.  In a rare editing misstep, Probst tells us Ricard is close behind, but when we see Ricard, Erika’s puzzle (next to his) is clearly more complete than we just saw at a second ago.  Manipulative editing, folks.  

So Erika’s immune, breaking this season’s streak of those in danger winning immunity.  This spells doom for Ricard, though oddly he doesn’t seem to think so.  When Erika talks to him about how tough the decision is, Ricard starts off saying how it looks like it should be a no-brainer, which sounds like he’s going to show good self-knowledge about his threat level… And then he talks about how Erika hates Deshawn and should vote him out.  Way to go, Ricard.  

Erika does talk about the conflict of her heart, which wants to vote out Deshawn, and her head, which says Ricard must go.  Erika sadly can’t sell it like Shan can, and this is a no-brainer.  Ricard NEEDS to go.  He is, far and away, the biggest jury threat left.  You CANNOT, under any circumstances, keep him in the game, and the show itself is only making a half-hearted attempt to say he might stay.  We need something else to make Tribal more exciting.  

Enter Xander.  For all those saying I was too hard on Xander, and not giving him credit where his credit was due… Well, you’re probably right overall, but this episode does its best to vindicate me in my feelings.  Xander tanks HARD this episode, and while he actually DOES avoid doing a dumb here, he teeters dangerously close.  This being the last night his idol can be played, Xander wants to play his idol, and wants it to matter.  Sadly, he does not have the brains of goddess Angelina of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, and rather than come up with a convoluted way for him to play his idol correctly, he just wants to play it on Ricard.  Which yes, would be playing an idol correctly, but this is somewhat offset by the fact that YOU KEPT THE BIGGEST JURY THREAT AROUND!  A CORRECT IDOL PLAY DOESN’T MATTER IF THE OUTCOME HURTS YOU IN THE LONG RUN!

But really, this is a feeble attempt at misdirection.  Even I, on my most anti-Xander day, would not accuse him of being that dumb.  Tribal Council doesn’t even try to hide it, with the whole thing just being a Ricard love-fest.  Ricard goes over his life status, and it pulls at the heartstrings, not going to lie.  Ricard even goes full Jeremy Collins on “Survivor Cambodia” in an attempt to stay, talking about how he and his husband are having a second child soon.  Everyone is emotional, but are ultimately ruled by their heads.  

Yes, if the emotional buildup didn’t clue you in, Ricard is gone.  Xander does play his idol, but wisely pays it for himself, just to be safe.  I am, of course, sorry to see Ricard go, as he was one of my favorites the entire season, but for there to be any tension at Final Tribal, he needed to go.  At least he’s a good sport of the way out.  

Back at camp, Xander continues his hot streak of bad ideas, talking about how a little drizzle doesn’t matter to them, even without a shelter on their new beach.  Xander evidently never watched cartoons, as a downpour now commences, and everyone runs for the cover of trees.  Trust me, compared to what we’re going to see later on, this is hardly Xander’s worst mistake.  

First, though, we have to get a GOOD bit of Xander content up in here.  Yes, out of everyone left, Xander is the only one not to yet get some sort of inspirational moment/flashback, and this must be corrected.  Him talking about proving to himself what he could do, coupled with photos of young Xander becoming more athletic, is nice, but it’s too little, too late.  I was willing to spot Danny his moment a few episodes ago, but your in the finale  Too late to do your work now.  

Plus, it kills any chance of anyone but Xander winning final immunity, and deciding who goes to Final Four firemaking, which is regrettably still around.  Also regrettable, our immunity challenge, where players have to spell “Final 3” in blocks while walking on effectively a large bow, and needing to keep everything balanced.  Not because the challenge is bad in and of itself, but because it comes from “Survivor Edge of Extinction”.  If you’re somehow new to the blog, suffice to say that in my opinion, every aspect of that season, save for Rick Devans and Big Wendy, should be expunged from the history of the show.  

Sure enough, Xander wins, and though he makes an effort to talk to everyone left regarding his decision, he doesn’t make a big secret about what he wants to do.  Deciding that he can’t give Erika the “victory” of winning the firemaking challenge (another point against “Survivor Edge of Extinction”: That becoming the meta), Xander is going to send Heather and Deshawn against each other, foreshadowed earlier by Deshawn talking about not wanting to do it.  Of the pair, Heather is set up as the better fire maker, thereby all but ensuring her defeat.  

Honestly, her best chance is Xander doing a dumb, and when Xander sees Erika having trouble starting fire (which I have to assume, given what we’ve seen of her fire-making abilities, was her trying to lower her threat level in that area), he gets just such an idea.  Because we haven’t drawn ENOUGH from “Survivor Edge of Extinction” lately, Xander contemplates giving up immunity to beat Erika in firemaking.  Going full Chris Underwood up in here.  And look, taking out a threat is a big move you can hang your hat on at the end.  Plus, it gives you publicity at arguably the most crucial time.  But the fact remains that you have to give up safety in the game to do so, and YOU SHOULD NEVER GIVE UP SAFETY IN THE GAME OF “SURVIVOR”!  The real thing to remember here, though, is that Xander is acknowledging in this scene that Erika is his biggest competition, a fact that Heather emphasizes. So it makes sense that Xander doesn’t want to give her glory, but guaranteeing her an end spot feels little better.  I can see the logic of Xander wanting to go full Underwood, but it’s flawed.  

Thankfully, even Xander wouldn’t do that.  No, he does something arguably even dumber.  You see, he sticks with his original plan to take Erika to the end with a free pass, and force Heather and Deshawn to fire making.  The flaw?  To lower Erika’s threat, he talks about how he doesn’t think her game is that threatening.  No evidence, no logic, just his opinion.  The flaw here is that the jury clearly is not buying this, and as a result, Xander appears to be either A) Out of Touch, or B) Blatantly Trying to Spin a Lie.  In either case, he’s failing miserably, and tanking his own chances as a result.  

Is there any upside to this Tribal Council?  Yes there is!  We get the awesome music from “Survivor Island of the Idols” back once again!  Hooray!

Credit where it is due, while I still despite forced fire making at Final Four, this is one of the more exciting duels.  It’s not funny, like the super-long one in “Survivor Cook Island”, nor emotional like Aubry vs. Cydney in “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, but it is an actual nail-biter of a challenge.  Heather has the early lead, but while her fire burns a bit of the rope, it doesn’t go through, giving Deshawn just enough time to win by three seconds.  Good for him!  Heather, while nice as a person is probably the least interesting person left, and the biggest finale goat, so better to have her out of the way for our finalists.  

This is all evidenced by our finalists all having good “Why I should win” summaries during the final day montage.  Xander talks about finding his advantages and using them effectively, Erika talks about building up her game from the background to the foreground, and Deshawn… Gives us the “I’ve grown so much” narrative.  Ok, Deshawn’s is a bit weaker, but he was hardly a load in this game, and has something he can at least argue.  

This point is emphasized all the more when Evvie, truly the best jury foreperson, says that everyone there has a shot at some votes, and it’s a tough choice.  And I will say, while I still prefer the old jury format, this is probably the best iteration of the new one yet.  I think it’s the fact that it’s just the jury talking, and Probst doesn’t interject into the proceedings.  It feels more pure, though again, I still prefer the questions, if only for the hilarious ones we get sometimes.  Danny TRIES to go there with his sports “Divide the game into quarters” analogy, which really doesn’t work.  

Sadly, Evvie’s pronouncement does not seem too founded, as the jury clearly favors Erika.  They RIP into Deshawn when he talks up his “social game” and direct most of their specific questions at the other two.  Xander they seem to at least give a chance to persuade them, and a few seem to be in his corner.  Tiffany and Liana seem to ask questions trying to get Xander to talk about his moves in the game, seemingly to give him a chance to prove himself to the jury.  

Here, however, Xander once again falls flat.  When asked to talk about his social game, he says “Um” about a half-dozen times before coming up with a half-baked answer that seems to satisfy pretty much no one on the jury.  Going into this, I had Xander as my number two for win potential.  Had I known that he had the Final Tribal Council skills of Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”), I would, of course, have had him lower.  

Unsurprisingly, Erika wins, but we get a definitive second place in Deshawn, who somehow snagged one vote despite largely being shut out of the proceedings.  Presumably Danny voted for him, but I can’t be sure.  In any case, everyone is shocked that the vote is read live, and is then followed immediately by what is effectively our reunion show.  Lights are brought up on the Tribal Council set, and the contestants are given champagne and pizza, the latter of which they must compliment, presumably on threat of losing their prize money.  I imagine the dream team just of camera, checks in one hand, lighters in the other.  

Not much to talk about at our Reunion.  The setting is cool.  They talk with most everyone.  The absence of the pre-jury is felt, though I can understand why they’re not allowed to be there.  Naseer talks about learning English from “Survivor” for the umpteenth time.  We get a lot of emotional beats from the likes of Ricard and Danny.  Plus, there’s no awkward audience participation.  Good stuff.  Loses points, though, for playing “Ancient Voices” during it, which serves only to remind us what we could have been having.  Bring back the intro, CBS!

Season 42 looks fun, though they’re clearly borrowing a lot from this season.  Understandable, but as I’ll get to later, a concern.  First, time for the old “Idol Speculation” staple: Looking back at my pre-season cast assessment and seeing just how off my predictions were!

Sydney-Wrong.  Took after Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) far more than I thought, and rightfully lasted much shorter as a result.  

Danny-Wrong.  Much more flexible and savvier than I had predicted.  

Liana-Pretty much right.  Mid-merge boot, not super memorable.  The feud with Xander was fun, though.  

Brad-Not out QUITE as early as I predicted, but still pretty much right.  

JD-Wrong.  Turns out the dude is only good if he’s got a script to work off of.  

Evvie-Wrong.  They were much better at taking control than I gave them credit for.  

Ricard-Right overall.  He was a threat to win, though somewhat less charming on screen than I expected.  

Shan-Wrong.  Much less religious, and much more game-savvy than I had anticipated.  She lasted longer than I thought, obviously.

Naseer-Right about boot time, wrong about personality.  While he DID talk about overcoming adversity as much as I thought, the dude had the charm to pull it off without getting annoying, which I did not foresee.  

Genie-Sadly right.  

Xander-Wrong.  Despite what this last episode might indicate, the dude was much more game-savvy than I gave him credit for.  

Sara-Wrong, though in fairness, I couldn’t anticipate such a dumb challenge mistake, nor that she would pay the price for it.  

Voce-Wrong.  Much more socially palatable, though oddly much shorter-lived as well.  

Deshawn-Pretty much right, though like Ricard, less charming than I would have thought.  

Tiffany-Wrong, flat out.  

Eric-Wrong.  He just wasn’t made for a faster-paced season like this.  

Heather-Wrong, though had I known tribe makeup beforehand, I would have been closer.  Being on the super-winning all the time tribe will do that.  

Erika-RIGHT!  HAHA!  CHALK UP ANOTHER CORRECT PRE-SEASON PICK FOR “IDOL SPECULATION”, Y’ALL!  

In terms of this season as a whole, the best way I can sum it up is that it succeeds in spite of itself.  For once, I don’t mean it’s a good season with a bad theme (see “Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but rather, production seemed hell-bent on trying to make this season bad, adding twist after poorly-conceived twist after poorly-implemented twist.  While I don’t have data to back this up, but if you were to chart relative enjoyment of each episode by the fanbase with the number of twists and advantages added in a given episode, I suspect you would find an inverse correlation.  To put it another way, the more random shit they crammed into an episode, the less enjoyable the episode.  

Now, I’ve made my opinions on these twist clear, and I’ve made my opinions of the number of them in the season clear.  Equally, production has made their views on these issues clear.  Thus, if production by some miracle happens to be reading this blog, I’m not going to get into a debate with you about whether or how many or what advantages should be in the game.  Clearly you’ve made up your minds, and for the foreseeable future, they’re here to stay.  So, instead, let me make a point about all these advantages and your show, one that even production will have to concede has some validity:

You.  Do.  Not.  Have.  Time.  

Leave aside whether advantages are good for the game, the fact is you simply do not have enough time for all these advantages, and still have a good game.  That inverse correlation I speculated about?  Should it exist, I would hypothesize that it is due not necessarily to the quality of the twist themselves, but to all the time they take up.  Time to introduce the twist.  Time to explain the twist.  Time for someone to find/use the twist.  Other players talking about the twist.  It just eats up precious screen time the show does not have.  As Probst himself used to say, “Ultimately, it is a SOCIAL game”  The show lives and dies on the audience connecting with the cast, and for that, they need time to get to KNOW the cast.  Time you are taking away with all these idols and advantages.  

Now, to be fair, there are two solutions to this.  Reduce the number of advantages in the game, particularly new ones that require in-depth explanation, or have longer episodes.  I would be fine with either option, but let’s be real: While “Survivor” is a consistent show from a ratings perspective, and has gone up due to renewed exposure via online streaming/quarantine, the fact is it is not the ratings juggernaut the early seasons were, and it would need those kind of numbers to justify going to 90 minutes or 2 hours as the standard episode.  I’d enjoy that, but it’s just not realistic.  Realistically, the only solution is to reduce the number of advantages in the game, and while 42 is out the window already, I can hold out hope for 43 and beyond.  Also, NEVER do the “Do or Die” again.  I’ll spot you 42, but after that?  NEVER AGAIN!

So, if time is such a big problem, why does this season still succeed?  Because they had a stellar cast, who managed to shine in SPITE of their reduced time in which to do so  This was overall a very even edit (save for some outliers like Heather being invisible most of the game, and Erika, while she had an obvious winner edit in the second half, being invisible pre-merge), where everyone got at least a bit of content, and we felt like we got to know most of the people on this season.  Credit where it’s due, production did there part as well, as this connection was aided by the “flashbacks” to real life, which I still thoroughly enjoyed.  Still, this cast succeeded DESPITE the obstacles in their path, not because of them.  Consider what would have happened if this cast had been replaced with the cast from a season that’s not great, but not terrible.  You know, just kind of “average”.  Say, for instance, the cast of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” or “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” had played on this season.  Wouldn’t have stood out nearly as much.  And this is the disaster you court, “Survivor”.  Unless you can have a home-run cast every season, you had best consider cutting back the number of advantages.  

In terms of overall ranking, this season definitely falls in the “good” category.  The twists drag it down, but the cast and some editing choices elevate it.  I would probably put it smack-dab in the middle of my rankings, just below “Survivor The Australian Outback”.  A solid, enjoyable season, but not quite good enough to be one of the all-time greats.  That ranking is nothing to sneeze at, though, and it’s been great getting back into “Survivor” with you all!  As usual we’ll be on hiatus until next season’s cast is announced, so I look forward to hearing from you all then! 

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Episode 12: Erika and DeBeanshawn

This may be the most I’ve ever stretched for a blog title, and for me, that’s saying something.  But so help me, Deshawn’s “seed” confessional was about the only title-fodder I had to work with, and this seemed more appropriate than my alternate, “Little Deshawn of Horrors”, only because the latter implied Deshawn did something horrible.  He may make some less-than-optimal moves tonight, to be sure, but “horrible” would be far too strong a word for tonight.  

Speaking of tonight, for once we have a decent episode, so I don’t have to recoil in horror at the thought of recapping it tonight.  Besides, our players choose to focus on the GOOD parts of last episode, so I will as well.  Deshawn and Danny are naturally unhappy at the way things went down last episode, a feeling hyped up by how emotional things were.  Deshawn does a better job recapping the emotional beats than I do, but suffice to say, they’re still just as effective, even a week later.  

When they DO get back to the “We’re in the minority now” problem, however, they handle that pretty well as well.  Deshawn, being a bit more expressive, saves his rantings for Danny, which won’t really affect his standing in the tribe.  Danny, being more of the diplomat, is the one to reach out to those who voted with the majority.  Specifically, he reaches out to Xander (the person he feels most betrayed by, since he and Deshawn had a sense that Erika and Heather were not with them), and discusses the decision with him.  Xander continues his “shield” argument in confessional, and I maintain Rob Cesternino’s “You have to use your shield at some point” rebuttal, and we move on.  While trust has been lost, all agree that Ricard should be the next to go.  Xander says that the only way Ricard survives is by winning immunity, thereby ensuring that Ricard will do just that.  

The morning light brings a horrible travesty to light.  Something we all should have known, but did not until now.  THEY NEVER GOT RID OF THE “LUVU” SIGN ON THE TRIBE LOGO!  Seriously, go back and look!  There’s some clothes hanging off of it, but beneath the “Viakana” sign you can clearly see “Luvu”.  Does that make the tribe name officially “Viakana Luvu”?  What next, dogs and cats living together?  Mass hysteria, I say!

Ok, ok, the real headline next morning is a continuation of the tribal conversation surrounding race, and specifically just how much Heather still has to learn.  She and Deshawn talk about it, and Heather again reaffirms just how little she’s thought about it, and how far she still has to go to even try to understand.  Good on her for being willing to admit that, and even better for her starting to educate herself.  As she says, she still has a long way to go, and it’s kind of a late start, but hey, every step of progress deserves to be celebrated, IMO.  And I can’t even complain about the show forcing a white perspective on an issue for people of color this time.  This isn’t Probst taking a race conversation and directing it toward the white people.  This is the people out there having a conversation, and that does deserve to be highlighted.  Kudos on learning, show.  

It also helps that we actually get ERIKA’S perspective on the matter.  About damn time.  That said, Erika doesn’t add much to the conversation that we wouldn’t have expected, but it’s still nice to hear.  Plus, we learn that Erika is clairvoyant, as she reads the comments section on any “Survivor” forum from several months after filming, talking about how a woman needs to win after such a long dry spell.  The conversation as a whole does seem to reaffirm the bond between Erika and Deshawn, and definitely gets Erika back on the “Oust Ricard” train, though Deshawn privately admits that he doesn’t fully trust Erika.  Reasonable, but for now, as they say, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”.  

We head to our reward challenge which, disappointingly, is yet another team challenge post-merge.  Even worse, we have a REUSED team challenge, as “Octopus’ Garden” from “Survivor Cagayan” makes a return.  Look, show, I like The Beatles as much as the next guy, but this challenge just isn’t that exciting.  If you don’t have a tribe trying and failing to throw a challenge, you just don’t have a lot going on.  

Our randomly divided teams, consisting of Xander, Deshawn, and Erika versus Ricard, Danny, and Heather, are playing for the choice of two rewards: Either grilled chicken and veggies or cookies and cake.  After a decently tense match, all things considered, it turns out that even the combined might of Danny and Ricard cannot overcome the challenge sink that is Heather.  Since no one on the other team is Angie from “Survivor Philippines”, they pick the sensible option of the chicken and veggies.  Xander and Deshawn talk about how this is fuel for them, and the three, once again, bond over a mutual need to get Ricard out.  

Back at camp, the three left behind discuss getting food, though Danny quickly goes off to hunt for an idol.  And hunt he does, being gone so long that Heather and Ricard take notice.  In a smart move, the show does not actually REVEAL as yet whether or not Danny has an idol.  You might think the chyron might give it away, but once again, the show does a clever move.  When we next hear Danny talk, his chyron lists “Immunity Idol?”, reminiscent of “Former Federal Agent?” from “Survivor Redemption Island”, aka “The One Fun Thing About ‘Survivor Redemption Island’”.  Funny, and it keeps the mystery going.  I maintain that needing to list idols and advantages in the chyron is a sign that you have too many idols and advantages, but even I must admit, it might have been worth it just for this joke.  

Still, the presence of a possible Danny idol means alternate plans must be made.  For Ricard and Heather, who are ostensibly aligned, they just need to split the vote, but this puts Deshawn in danger.  Therefore, he leans on his relationship with Erika, getting her to talk about her need to have her game be seen as separate from Heather’s.  She talks about needing to make a move for herself, which might need to be voting Heather out.  Any fool can tell you this is a bad idea.  With how much Erika is talked up as a threat, she, over Heather, would probably be seen as the one making moves between the two, and voting out such a close ally/likely jury goat would only be to her detriment.  Still, Erika explicitly never goes so far as to say she SHOULD oust Heather, but Deshawn is pacified with her entertaining the possibility for now.  Deshawn then goes down several notches in my book by saying he’s planted a seed in her mind, bringing him far too close to my least-favorite player, Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) for my liking.  

Off to our immunity challenge, it is, say it with me now, a combo challenge where contestants go through an obstacle course then solve a puzzle, the first to do so winning immunity.  Standard fare by now, but I like that it draws from some more obscure, underappreciated seasons.  In particular, I liked the “Untying Puzzle Pieces on the Balance Beam” aspect, as it reminds me fondly of what I consider my first season, “Survivor Guatemala”.  Sadly, as much as I like the challenge, Ricard wins.  A few people, Deshawn in particular, come close on the puzzle, but in the end, the guy obviously foreshadowed to win immunity won immunity.  Who would have guessed?  

After privately getting their “I told you so’s” on, Danny and Deshawn then proceed to do their best to suck all the remaining tension out of the episode.  You see, the stuff about getting out Heather would have been good misdirection.  See if perhaps the alliance implodes on itself, particularly after Ricard talks about seeing the pair of Heather and Erika as a big threat.  But no, it quickly becomes apparent that either Deshawn or Danny will be going home tonight.  Quick though the tension was sucked out, I can’t fault the episode for at least trying.  What I CAN fault them for is eliminating the tension generated by Danny’s idol hunt.  It’s now revealed that, despite the show highlighting him coming close, Danny found jack squat.  His demeanor after his hunt was a bluff, akin to Rupert’s “Rock in the Pocket” from “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Fair enough, it’s a good play, but why reveal it now?  The one bit of organic tension you have, and you up and reveal it now?  Save it for Tribal Council!  Keep that going until the very last minute!  It would be a brilliant editing ploy that fits organically with the events of the game, and keeps the audience on the edge of their seats!  Where is the downside here?

At least we get a good heartwarming moment, with Danny coming clean to Deshawn about his NFL past.  Good on him for keeping it hidden this long, and good on the show for not repeating the same story we see with every pro sports player on “Survivor”.  

Deshawn will not let “the feels” stop him from saving his butt, though.  He wagers that he’s made better connections with the likes of Erika , and so tries to talk them into letting him stay.  And really, he is the better choice to keep over Danny.  Deshawn may have been more of the strategic head of their alliance, but Danny, as the last few episodes have demonstrated, is a charmer, and thus much more of a jury threat.  It’s in pretty much everyone’s best interests to get out Danny over Deshawn, with only Ricard slightly dissenting, given how close Deshawn was to him on the puzzle.  Why no one talks about Xander possibly beating out Ricard in a challenge is beyond me.  Even more beyond me WHY IS STILL NO ONE TRYING TO FLUSH THE IDOL THEY ALL KNOW XANDER HAS?

Sigh.  Our Tribal Council, being devoid of tension, starts off somberly.  Not bad, but not exciting.    Initially, the most noteworthy thing is that Ricard sits to Xander’s left.  Then, Deshawn decides to try an 11th hour play, fabricating his conversation with Erika into Erika full-on wanting Heather out.  The man’s on the ropes, and I can understand his plan.  Try and sew dissent in the ranks of the majority in the hopes that you seem a stabler option.  The flaw in the plan is that Deshawn executes it poorly.  His performance is decent enough, but it comes so out-of-left-field that it looks like what it is: A ploy to get the majority to turn on one another.  Say what you will about this cast, but they’re not idiots, and so see through the ploy, putting Deshawn in perhaps more trouble, as Xander’s vote for him is one of the few we see.  It’s also one of the few voting confessionals we here, where Xander gives the “Truth Kamikaze” line that gives the episode its proper title.  As a side note, it’s weird that we’ve gotten very few voting confessionals this season.  Is it the show trying to create tension, or is this another sacrifice to the God of 8 Zillion Advantages?

In the end, even Deshawn and Danny didn’t believe Deshawn’s ploy, as the pair ended up voting for each other.  The majority wisely split the vote, leading to the smart play of Danny going on the revote.  While it may be the smart play, I am sorry to see Danny go home.  A few episodes ago, not so much, as the man was just kind of “there”, but now?  Late though it was, the show did a good job humanizing him, and highlighting his diplomatic skills.  They will be missed.  

And our remaining players will miss their creature comforts, as Probst tells them they’re going to a new camp and starting over with minimal supplies.  Whoopee.  

Even when taking into account the low bar set by last episode, this was a good one.  A mix of heart and strategy, with some funny editing jokes to lighten the mood this close to the end.  Yes, a couple of things could have been done better, but “sub-optimal” does not mean “bad”, and this did get my hyped for the finale, as well it should.  Speaking of the finale, it’s time for my seasonal ranking of who’s most likely to win in a Final Tribal Council.  As a reminder, this just takes into account who has the best shot of WINNING at the end, not who’s most likely to MAKE it to the end.  So, without further ado:

RICARD-I do think about these rankings pre-episode, and I usually have a general idea at least of my top and bottom picks prior to the show.  That said, this season was tough, as I wasn’t sure whether to put Xander or Ricard in this spot.  This episode solidified it as Ricard.  Apart from Shan’s narrative benefiting him vote-wise should he reach the end, the dude just keeps winning and prevailing against high odds, and I don’t see him losing to basically anyone he goes up against.  That said, like most in this position, his issue is him getting to the end, since pretty much everyone can see it, and will try to stop him.  Better hope for that immunity tear, dude.  

XANDER-Perhaps the only person who can give Ricard a run for his money.  I’ll admit, I underestimated Xander.  Dude has more strategic chops than I thought, and guts of titanium for having held onto a very public idol this long.  Assuming that gets him through final five, he’s got a decent shot to win final four firemaking, if not the challenge beforehand, and in either case, without Ricard, he waltzes to an easy victory.  A smart underdog who should not have survived this long.  If people lose to him, it’s their own fault at this point.  

ERIKA-She may not be as flashy as our top two contenders, but I do think Erika has a decent shot.  She’s helped by the fact that everyone has wanted her out, and views her as a threat.  While players were clearly upset about the “Time Travel Twist”, it was more at production than at Erika.  She may not have a “BIG MOVE” to her name, but she did squirrel her way into a majority, and survived despite an oddly large target.  Well-liked and well-spoken, if she can get out the obvious threats, she probably wins easily.  

DESHAWN-While low on this list, Deshawn is not entirely out of the running, in my opinion.  The key for him is going to be a jury that cares more about gameplay than it does about social bonds.  Deshawn has clearly rubbed people the wrong way, and has an uphill battle against most everyone left, but if he can somehow parlay his game moves to his advantage, he might have a shot.  That will be tougher after tonight, as I think no one took kindly to his attempt to create a live Tribal, but hey, you never know.  

HEATHER-As there must always be someone all but guaranteed to win in the end, so there must always be someone all but guaranteed to lose at the end.  While not disliked, Heather has just been seen as a follower in this game.  Against a truly hated combination of finalists, she might do well, but I would say Deshawn is the only person she even has a chance against.  She’s persevered, it’s true, but that’s just not going to be enough for her this season.  

Well, I’m hyped, are you?  On to the finale!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Episode 11: Nothing Really Matters

Every season has a zenith, and so every season must have a nadir.  I just didn’t expect them to come one right after the other.  For context, this is now the second time in two seasons that, had things gone slightly differently, you would not have gotten a recap blog.  Instead, you would have gotten a thousand-word rant about how nothing really matters, and everything is pointless.  Even though you won’t be getting that rant today, we came dangerously close, and as such, it gets to be the title of the blog.  

To save us from having to talk about the awfulness just yet, I am, for once, happy to welcome you to another edition of… 

MATT’S MESS-UP!

I felt like I gave Shan a pretty good send-off last blog.  Talked her up, sung her praises.  But no, while I talked a fair game about the impact of her exit, I did not talk nearly enough about her exit proper.  On a positive note, she left the game with a lot of class.  True, she did call Deshawn a “snake”, which will get talked about a lot in the episode coming up, but she didn’t seem to have much venom (pun intended) behind it, and did have kind words for her Ua buddy Ricard.  Her farewell confessional focussed on berating herself, and I respect her for that.  All that said, I also have to note a cruel irony.  All season long, Shan’s debate has been “heart vs head”.  Her deciding whether to vote out the smart person for her game, or the person who would hurt the most to vote out.  And, all season long, Shan’s head has won that conflict.  This past episode was the first time she gave in and acted emotionally.  What did it get her?  Voted out.  Fitting for “Survivor”, but rough nonetheless.  

Sigh.  I really can’t put it off anymore, can I?  No?  Great.  On to the episode, I guess.  

As one would expect from such an explosive vote-out, there’s a fair bit of fallout.  Danny opens matters, but unfortunately it’s not him running the conversation, but Liana and Deshawn.  You know, two of the more volatile people in terms of feeling betrayed by votes left?  Yeah, it goes about as well as you’d expect.  Liana is upset that, after all their talk about the POC alliance sticking together, she gets blindsided and the alliance falls apart.  Deshawn, meanwhile, is unhappy about the “snake” comment mentioned earlier, especially when Ricard, who had at least a similar level of betrayal in the whole maneuver, gets off scot-free.  Not an unfair criticism, but Deshawn complaining about it doesn’t do much to help his matter.  

Deshawn’s complaining does also not go unnoticed by Ricard, Xander, Erika, and Heather, who it seems are in an alliance now?  I guess it makes sense, since they weren’t explicitly in the POC alliance (despite Ricard and Erika both ALSO being POCs), but this still feels out of the blue.  It’s nice for Erika and Heather to be on the top once in a while, but unfortunately I think it also screws any of their chances of winning.  Ricard and Xander are probably the top two biggest jury threats (Ricard is well-liked, and Xander has been playing a flashier game, and is one of two remaining Yase at this point, giving him a good underdog story), and they probably need to go sooner rather than later, particularly given that Xander, somehow, still has his idol on him.  

The next morning, it’s diplomacy time, as well as emotional time.  Seems we didn’t use up quite all the emotion we had stored up from last episode, and hey, Danny hasn’t had his backstory moment yet.  We get a truly touching bit from Danny about losing his father at a young age in a car accident, and how that impacted him growing up.  Once again, flashbacks to life outside the game are used effectively, and it is a really touching scene.  Nothing much else to say on it.  

We then awkwardly segway into Deshawn dealing with the fallout from his rant the previous night, as Ricard kind of felt attacked by being called out as the one Shan was cool with.  In a moment of humility, Deshawn admits Ricard may have a point, and wishes he could go back in time and just be quiet after Tribal Council.  Sadly, Deshawn is not Time Lord Casupanan, and has no hourglass to smash.  He does doe his best to repair the damage, putting on his diplomat hat and apologizing to Liana, hoping they’ll work together.  Liana does a good job selling that she buys it to his face, but admits privately that “She’s open to revenge.”

So, so far the events of this episode have ranged from “standard fare” to “actually pretty heartwarming.  Even in this, the nadir of the season, there are positives to be found.  So, what’s so wrong?  What could case this rage of enormous proportions?

My friends, let me introduce you to the “Do or Die” twist.  You see, it’s immunity challenge time, and our challenge is the Final Immunity Challenge from “Survivor Micronesia”.  Holding cylindrical blocks together at various lengths, keeping a ball balanced in the middle, last one standing wins.  “Cirie’s Bane”, “Malcolm’s Bane”, “Wendell’s Bane”, take your pick for the nickname.  Standard challenge fare at this point, so what’s so bad about that?  You see, as Jeff Probst feels inclined to tell us “Blues Clues” style once again, there’s now a CONSEQUENCE to losing this challenge!  You see, the first person out has to take a penalty.  What is that penalty, you may ask?  

To quote as much as I can remember amongst my rage from the show, the consequence is “A game of chance” played at Tribal Council, where “If you win, you’re safe, and we vote as normal with you immune.  Lose, and you go home immediately, there is no vote.”  

Are they trying to kill the show at this point?  Does Probst just want to retire, but doesn’t want to admit it, so is tanking the show on purpose?  Seriously, I want to know what the hell is going through the minds of these idiots when they think something like this is ok?  A game of CHANCE?  Pure luck, sending someone home.  Guess there’s a reason that “Ultimately, it is a social game.” was cut from the opening narration.  Nothing much social about a game of luck.  

Ok, ok, for all my ranting and raving, let me be completely fair to the producers.  They could have done this twist MUCH worse than how they implemented it.  They let everyone know up front that it’s coming, and give them the option to sit out the challenge.  Had they not done this, and sprung it on the players as a surprise after the challenge began, it would have been BS to everyone, not just the person who lost the challenge.  And, as we’ll see at Tribal Council, it’s not quite AS random as something like a coin flip, but still pretty luck-based.  

I will also concede that I can see where they’re coming from.  It’s the same principle as taking away the flint from the losing teams pre-merge.  Wanting there to be consequences for outright losing.  A stick of punishment to accompany the immunity carrot of reward.  

The flaw is that the consequences are too harsh for a simple challenge loss, especially on a challenge like this that has no obvious skill set, meaning several people could have a reasonable belief that they could win this challenge.  But no, just because you happen to suddenly find out you’re not good at this ONE PARTICULAR CHALLENGE, your time in the game is now at risk.  And hey, why stop there?  Why not make EVERY vote out a game of chance?  I mean, after all you’ve taken all the social maneuvering out of the social game already, why not just go whole hog?  Use those dice for something: Every Tribal everyone rolls their die, lowest number goes home!  It makes about as much sense as eliminating someone this way!  

Seriously, I cannot emphasize it enough: Fair warning or not, it goes against the core of the game to have an elimination based on a luck-based game, rather than social dynamics or interpersonal strategizing.  Fuck this twist.  Fuck it hard.  

Despite these dire consequences, only two people (Liana and Heather) sit out the challenge.  There’s also little tension as to who will have to face this BS twist, since Deshawn adds his name to the “Bane” list, and falls out after 3 seconds on the first round.  Relieving for everyone else, but rough for the poor guy.  Our final battle is a three-way duel between Ricard, Xander, and Danny, and surprisingly, it’s the one of the three who doesn’t need immunity, and hasn’t yet won immunity, who takes the prize.  Good for Danny.  

Between Ricard having won multiple immunities at this point, and Shan calling him out as a good player at the last Tribal Council, naturally Ricard is target number one for most everyone there.  Why no one wants to try and flush Xander’s idol is a question that still eludes me.  Regardless, it’s the smart move for pretty much everybody.  Even Xander, who warns Ricard of the impending trouble, should really just be letting him go at this point.  Xander makes the argument that Ricard is a shield for him, which is fair, since Ricard’s name is coming up more than Xander’s.  But, to quote from “Rob Has a Podcast” from last week, “You eventually need to USE your shield/“  There’s fewer and fewer votes left, and while I think Xander does well if he gets to the end, I don’t think he beats Ricard, and so needs him out.  There’s also an argument to be made that Ricard is needed as a number against the threesome of Deshawn, Danny, and Liana, since Liana seems back in the fold for this vote.  Given her desire for revenge, and how long she’s held onto the grudge against Xander, however, I feel like she could be swayed to your side as a number, at least for one vote, and again, Ricard is too big a threat to be brought to the end.  

With our targets cemented, and Erika positioned as the swing vote, we head off to Tribal tonight.  It starts off pretty standard, with more talk about the fallout from Shan’s comments and Ricard and Deshawn trying to come to an understanding.  Where this Tribal REALLY gets good, though, is when the discussion turns to race.  Deshawn breaks down about what this means to the community, and him personally, citing his sister in the conversation.  Danny and Liana chime in with their own experiences, Liana in particular noting how important it is that the show is now casting 50% BIPOC minimum moving forward.  All good, honest stuff.  Once again, it gets the mirror neurons a-firing.  

Pity, then that the conversation has to turn to the TWO WHITE PEOPLE left in the game!  Look, I’m not saying they can’t or shouldn’t have an opinion on this, but the voices of members of a community, when having a discussion about said community, should always, ALWAYS come first.  Granted, they did come first as mentioned, and Xander at least was brought into the discussion by a member of the community in Danny, but when Probst has to decide who to get an opinion from, who does he go to?  Heather.  When Ricard and Erika are sitting RIGHT THERE, and probably have experiences they can relate to.  Not to belittle Heather’s “I know so little about this.” comments either, since I’m certain their genuine, but to a degree, it’s showing off her privilege, and again, is her’s REALLY the opinion Probst needed to hear right now?  It’s the Sarah Lacina moment during the Varner/Zeke Incident on “Game Changers” all over again, only less natural.  The discussion overall is still good but it clearly shows there’s still room for improvement on the show.  

Oh, and Probst also drops that this is the last night to use one’s “Shot in the Dark”, as Liana had discussed doing earlier.  Gee, so nice to know that, Probst!  Hope they players knew that before Tribal, or else that’s MORE BS you’re dropping on this episode.  Perhaps that’s why it’s starting to stink.  

Ok, ok, enough stalling.  We have to, once again, talk about the God-Awful “Do or Die” twist.  This time, however, we’re talking about one of the few things that makes it SLIGHTLY less awful.  When Probst said “Game of chance”, I was envisioning a coin flip or something similar.  It starts off that way, with Deshawn given the choice of three boxes, one of which keeps him safe, the other two of which send him home.  After picking one, Probst then goes full “Monty Hall Problem” on Deshawn, eliminating one of the unpicked bad boxes, and allowing him to switch if he wants.  This slightly mitigates the “game of chance” thing, since any basic stats student will tell you that switching gives you a better than average chance at surviving, meaning as long as Deshawn knows his stats, he can up his odds to be the best they can be, making it SLIGHTLY more skill-based as to whether he goes or not.  

Ultimately, though, it is STILL a game of chance, as Deshawn demonstrates by sticking with his original box and being safe.  I’d complain about him going against statistics, but I did the same thing with my stats teacher when presented with the exact same problem.  Read their body language to determine I had picked correctly, and stuck with my first choice.  Point being, who am I to judge?  

One more awful thing about this twist?  The tension of the choice is gone.  There were still a good five minutes left in the episode when Deshawn made his choice.  We could tell he would be safe.  

In another rarity for this season, the dumb decision is made in regards to who to vote out.  Granted, Xander does well by SOMEHOW saving his idol yet again, but he does spend his extra vote, and no one spent their shot in the dark.  Gee, that twist sure was consequential this game.  In any case, Liana goes home, and while I don’t think it makes strategic sense, I can’t say I’m to sorry.  Not that Liana was by any means a BAD character.  Her vendettas were oddly fun to watch, and she played competently enough.  But up against Ricard, she was just less interesting, so if one had to go, better her than Ricard.  

So, what do I think of the episode overall?  Eh, it was decent…

Just kidding.  If you couldn’t tell by now, in my opinion, it SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKS!

Do I really need to spell out why at this point?  While this episode is not devoid of good moments, they are all overruled by the awful, awful, AWFUL “Do or Die” twist that goes against the very core of what the show is about.  They narrowly avoided disaster this time, since it was relatively inconsequential, and given that season 42 has already filmed, I can’t be mad if it gets reused there.  But after that, never again, “Survivor”.  NEVER AGAIN!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.