Archive | September, 2023

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 1: Monty Python and the Holy Idol

28 Sep

You know, it really is a shame they didn’t cast Brandon on “Survivor 44”.  Thanks to him I can make Monty Python references, but they would have been so much more appropriate last season.  All the “It’s just a flesh wound!” jokes I could have made…

My readers, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you to the return of “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  We’ve got a new season to cover with routinely longer episodes, so let us not waste any more time and dive right in.  

As is the norm nowadays, we open with everyone on a boat talking about the game a bit.  Mostly bog-standard stuff at this point, but we do get a couple of fun sound bytes from some players.  The most notable for me and Emily and Sifu.  The former is technically one we’ve heard before, the “I’m here for the money and nothing else.” confessional, but this is something of a rarity in the modern era, where it’s all about the “experience”.  I’m not as down on the whole “inspirational stories” thing as some other fans, but even I’ll admit this makes for a refreshing change.  Sifu’s confessional is notable less for its content and more for the energy he brings.  Dude is all smiles and air guitar, and that charm is just infectious as far as I’m concerned.  I could see him being divisive given what we’ll see later, but for now, I’m on the “Love it” side for him.  

Everyone hauls themselves up on the boat.  Normally Probst would address the elephant on the boat, namely Bruce returning from “Survivor 44”.  Brandon, however, makes such a show of emotion that it overshadows even Probst’s happiness at Bruce’s return.  Brandon gives the “relatable fan” confessional about how he’s feeling just being here, and Probst is satisfied.  

But even blatant fanboying cannot keep Probst away from Bruce for long.  Bruce talks about how he’s just happy to be here.  Really emphasizing how he’s a normal player, just like everybody else.  Probably what he needs to do to avoid the stigma of a returning player, and too his credit, he does it pretty subtly.  Not invisibly, however, as Emily calls him out on doing this exact thing, pointing out that while he may not know the game overall better than everyone else here (I mean, he was only in it for 12 hours, most of that concussed), he does have a psychological edge from having been through at least this part of the game before.  Bruce deflects again pretty well, saying that everyone has skills they specifically bring to the game, but again, Emily calls him out on doing just this.  

I’m of two minds on this.  On the one hand, I can’t argue Emily isn’t speaking the truth.  Not a dig against Bruce here; the man really did pull it off as well as he could.  It’s just that someone caught on despite this, and it’s perfectly good to call it out, lest we end up with another “Survivor Redemption Island” situation where the returnee just does what they want and everyone else agrees.  On the other hand, a public forum where you’re making your first impression is MAYBE not the smartest place to put all this out?  You show your intelligence far too early, and since you’re calling out the guy everyone remembers as “the concussed one”, you seem like you’re “punching down” to use comedy terms.  Really, the only firm conclusion I can draw from this is that I’m glad I picked Emily as my favorite.  Is she a great “Survivor” player?  No, not based on this and stuff we’ll see later, but I love it when someone uses their intelligence to call out others.  

Probst goes on to name our tribes (I guess red team doesn’t get a mat confessional this season?), and we need to talk about these.  Not just because I accidentally misnamed one of them in my case assessment (if you would just RELEASE that information with the cast, CBS, we wouldn’t have this issue), but also because of what they are.  While all these names, like most of the non-merge tribe names in the new era, are pretty pathetic (I feel like a tribe name needs five letters minimum to work well), one of them lends itself to far too obvious a joke.  Like Baka on “Survivor 43” before them, it’s all anyone can see, and the humor cannot be ignored.  

We have a tribe that feels like it’s named after the comic “Little Lulu”.  Thus shall they henceforth be called.  This is the only source of humor from tribe names this season.  There are absolutely, 100% no obvious jokes relating to names that I’m ignoring.  

Keeping the parallel to Baka, Little Lulu is the yellow tribe.  Our red tribe is Reba and our blue tribe is Belo.  So named, Probst describes their challenge.  Sadly not a raid of the ship (never thought I’d see the day when I missed that), it’s basically a 3-stage obstacle course.  First stage has two people hauling stuff from one box to another, the second has two more people swim out to a raft with a key, which they paddle back, then climb onto the boat again.  Remaining two then use the key to unlock poles to maneuver flint off a spring, the first team to do so getting supplies, and not having to do “Sweat or Savvy”.  Again, like the confessionals on the boat, pretty bog-standard.  

In fairness, while the challenge itself is not that exciting, there is good back and forth to help MAKE it seem exciting.  Reba takes the initial lead, with Little Lulu not far behind and Belo trailing.  Belo for some reason decided to put Bruce on the portion involving lifting heavy objects over one’s head, which seems a great risk, but perhaps that’s why they’re a bit slow at it.  Little Lulu actually turns out to be the best group of swimmers and paddlers, only for it to turn out that Brandon, one of said paddlers, is the worst ladder climber.  Belo is actually the first to move onto the third portion, and Reba takes back second due to this performance.  In fairness to Brandon, I will say that said ladder did look difficult to climb up, and Brandon proves to be overall a lot less athletic than he looks.  That said, panicking and giving up?  That’s entirely on him.  

Little Lulu is not out of it yet, as Hannah and Emily seem overall the most competent at maneuvering the flint, by which I mean they’re the only ones we don’t see whacking at it like a piñata.  To be fair, though, Reba also eventually uses the more chopsticks-like method, and that plus their being ahead of Little Lulu otherwise makes them the winners.  

Since we need to vary up the “Sweat or Savvy” lest it be COMPLETE repetition, our losing teams now have to have people volunteer BEFORE they know the exact nature of the competition, and go off to a separate beach to do it instead of the tribe camp.  Brando (in what I THINK counts as an opening mat confessional) and Jake end up going for Belo, while Sabiyah and Kaleb go for Little Lulu.  Everyone else heads off to their camps, save for Brandon who stays behind to get checked out by medical.  Given how exhausted he looks, I can understand it, but I have to ask, why send the rest of his tribe away?  Let them hang around, so they don’t have to wait to find out his fate.  Plus, that way you can get a “Survivor” Moment™ out of their reaction.  I guess there’s the “Other tribes would have more shelter-building time” argument, but as we’ll soon see, without materials there’s not much they could do anyway.  Let them stay until he’s evacuated or cleared.  

We check in with our winners first.  Riding the high of their victory, J. Maya calls her tribe “stacked”, saying they have the “Brains, Brawn, and Morale” over the other tribes.  I’d point out that challenge was decently close, all things considered, but hey, hard to argue with results.  The tribe also notices some weird writing above and below the name on the tribe flag, but we’ll save that for later.  In the meantime, everyone does the standard “name, occupation” style introduction.  Only thing of note here is Julie lying about her occupation, not wanting to reveal her status as an attorney (a common theme this season).  Reasonable enough to do, but she does so with one of the worst poker faces I’ve ever seen.  No one calls her out on it, but to me, that was obviously a fib.  

Cementing the “Maybe a public call-out of Bruce wasn’t the best idea” line of thinking, Emily is all that Belo can talk about initially.  Bruce calls her out for calling him out, and it looks like most of his tribemates present are on his side, and now have a dislike of Emily.  Way to make a good first impression, Emily.  Though to be fair, with how great Bruce’s facial expressions are in this scene, it’d be hard not to side with him in any case.  

Talk then turns to setting up camp, and Bruce reassures everyone that he is not there to be the leader.  If you remember Russell Swan’s performance on “Survivor Philippines”, you can imagine how this goes.  Look, I’ll cut Bruce some slack.  Saying he knows how to weave palm fronds when volunteers are asked for is not really being a “leader”.  But as his tribe will rightly point out, he still has big opinions on how everything should go, and kind of steps into the role in spite of himself.  Only time will tell how much a detriment that is long-term.  

Little Lulu, having only three people while Brandon gets looked at, is kind of at a loss.  The three who remain, Sean, Emily, and Hannah, kind of vaguely agree to work together (with Emily explicitly expressing concern that Kaleb and Sabiyah were quick to volunteer to leave for the challenge) and try to get something going shelter-wise, but are stymied by the lack of tools.  There’s also concern about whether they’ll EVER get them, based on the “Savvy or Sweat”.  This, then, gives us a segue into looking at said challenge.  It’s largely standard.  The “Sweat” is hauling a bunch of logs across the beach, while “Savvy” is untangling a rope from around a much of towers, freeing a flint to win.  There’s two catches that previous iterations of this do not have.  First is that despite the name, it’s not an “or” but an “and”, as in both portions of the challenge need to be completed before the timer runs out, not just one.  Makes who to pick a bit trickier overall.  The other is that, rather than just being a race against time, it’s a race against EACH OTHER.  Yes, evidently the producers are tired of everyone winning this challenge no problem, so now they’re going to force at least one tribe to lose no matter what.  And on that “Dun-Dun-DUN!” moment, we cut to commercial.  Editing gold.  

We check in briefly with Little Lulu here again, mostly to see that Brandon’s look from medical was so inconsequential, it didn’t even warrant us seeing it.  Brandon comes back to camp to inform us that he’s not dead, and that he feels fine and feeeeeeeeeels happyyyyyyyyyy!  With the obligatory reference out of the way, they try once again to get some sort of shelter going minus tools, leading to Brandon and Hannah bonding over how anxious they’re getting.  Brandon for the obvious “I screwed up a challenge” reason, while Hannah has a more general “The elements are tough” moment, though she admits nicotine withdrawal is a factor.  The pair have a good human bonding moment, before hauling back a large stick of bamboo.  Not much, but it’s something.  

Emily, continuing to make arguably the worst first-impression possible, expresses skepticism about how the “Savvy or Sweat” will go.  This gives us all the reason we need to cut back to it.  With the rules set, both tribes give it their go.  Sabiyah starts off as our narrator, talking about how tough the challenge was.  She notes that she even started talking to herself.  She presents this as a weird coping mechanism, but from what little I know of physically-exhausting activities, it seems pretty normal.  In this case, it’s pretty effective too, as she and Kaleb get a slight lead on the puzzle portion.  Jake tells us not to worry, that he and Brando have the smarts to beat them on the puzzle.  This is immediately followed up by Brando admitting he has no idea how to do this kind of puzzle.  Again, the comedy is pretty good this episode, if nothing else.  

We cut away without finding out if there was a winner, as well as the realization that Belo is having just as much trouble sans tools as Little Lulu is.  They express hope that Jake and Brando return victorious, which naturally means we immediately get them coming back in defeat.  They say that both teams lost, which at first I think is them lying.  After all, why not show us the end of the challenge, if not to set up a fake out?  But no, Sabiyah and Kaleb come back empty-handed as well, though as we’ll see, in overall a slightly better position than their counterparts on Belo.  Sean informs Sabiyah of Emily’s comments, which I’m sure will in NO WAY impact later conversations!

Back at Belo, we get the first hint of alliances forming there, as the women all discover they have September birthdays.  Between that and the sad recent trend of women leaving pre-merge, they agree to stick together, which I can’t fault them for.  I will fault them for bringing it back to zodiac signs, since people talking about that is one of MY pet peeves (hence why I haven’t really been mentioning Kendra, the main person bringing them up.  It’s all spite here.), but hey, I’ve heard of worse reasons to make an alliance.  Power to them.  

They discuss targets, with it landing on Jake for being an attorney, and therefore smart/untrustworthy.  The irony, of course, is that Katurah, also an attorney, is part of this conversation.  She, however, is wise enough to keep her mouth shut, saying she’s an office manager instead.  As she has a better poker face than Julie, I won’t fault anyone for not catching on to this.  In a funny scene, Katurah even doubles-down by playing dumb with Jake and asking him basic questions regarding his profession.  Point Katurah.  Not much else to say here.  

Over at Little Lulu, Emily continues to anti-ingratiate herself.  Despite the lack of tools, they’ve manage to use their ingenuity to get a halfway decent shelter going.  Ok, “halfway decent” is maybe too much credit, but we’ve seen worse shelters on this show.  This is not Rupert’s Deathtrap from “Survivor All-Stars”, nor the Younger Men’s “Two Sticks and a Palm Frond” from “Survivor Exile Island”.  And these guys at least have the “No tools” excuse.  Point Little Lulu, if we’re pitting these shelters against each other.  

So how does Emily factor into this.  Well as Sabiyah lets us know, and we hear from Emily’s own mouth in a second, she’s kind of negative about the whole thing.  While the rest of the tribe tries to figure out ways to make something work, Emily is the one pointing out that it CAN’T work, for various reasons.  The legitimacy of these reasons varies, but whether they’re legitimate or not is irrelevant.  The smartest point made in an obnoxious way does not win friends and influence people, which is, you know, kind of the point of the game.  It’s less important to be right and more important to be inoffensive in how you make your point, and right now, Emily seems pretty incapable of doing that.  Which, to be fair, she did promise us would be the case before the game started, but that doesn’t make it any less a bad move.  

The counterpoint, however, is that it seems like living with these particular people might already be straining Emily’s limited patience.  She might not be playing the game well, but the look on her face when everyone else on her tribe immediately jumps to “aliens” as the builders of the pyramids says it all.  And I’m right there with her.  I would have an EXCEEDINGLY hard time not calling them out on this.  While strained, Emily is polite enough to their faces, but I can sympathize with what she’s having to deal with.  Still, it’s not good for her game that she’s having this much trouble this early.  

Reba is doing too well for them to be in any real contention of losing the immunity challenge, and thus we don’t get to see any sort of alliance form.  We do, however, get a crack in the form of Sifu.  That infectious energy sadly is not limited to confessional, and when you openly compare yourself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Sifu is openly and blatantly looking for idols, a fact people comment on and that ostracizes him from the tribe a fair amount.  It’s overall a boon to Austin, however, who can go and more subtly look for an idol or advantage without arousing much suspicion.  He does eventually find something, but takes it without reading.  He’s a bit put-out that it’s another Beware Advantage, but after a bit of deliberation, decides it’s worth the risk.  Probably the right call for him.  His tribe seems unlikely to lose in the immediate future, so he probably has some time.  Even if they do, Sifu can be made an easy target.  Good play by him here.  

The Beware Advantage this time around is largely as it has been.  There’s an idol you can get, but must complete some task before doing so, no voting until it’s complete.  The major difference here is that it’s now a SERIES of tasks, not just one.  First is that Austin must use a piece of parchment with half-letters on it, combined with the random symbols on the tribe flag, to figure out his next clue.  Told you they’d be relevant.  I admit, I’m torn on how I feel about this method for the Beware Advantage.  I think on the whole I come down on the side of liking it ok.  The fact that it’s less public than past Beware Advantage tasks alone is a plus in my book, and this very much feels like a treasure hunt.  As I mentioned with Tai’s hunt back in “Survivor Game Changers”, it feels very much like something out of “Indiana Jones”, and I’m all in favor of that.  Really, my only gripe is that this method is, by its nature more time-consuming, and I fear that moving forward, episodes will be bloated with more complicated advantages instead of giving us more time to get to know these new players.  

Off to our challenge.  Gee, I wonder if Reba will lose?  After all, apart from Austin finding the Beware Advantage, we’ve had all of about zero content from them!  No, this is clearly going to be a two-way race for last between Bero and Little Lulu, with the latter being favored to lose due to having had more content overall.  Instead, let’s look at our immunity idol.  This season it’s the bust of a notorious “Survivor” Villain: Pelican Pete, Osten’s arch-nemesis on “Survivor Pearl Islands”.  First finishers get the bust itself, second place gets the base.  Not the best idol, not the worst.  Fits with the logo of the season, decently cool-looking.  Do wish the second half was something other than the base, but at least it’s not two separate idols.  

Our challenge itself largely comes courtesy of the first immunity challenge of “Survivor South Pacific”.  Tribes race through some obstacles, then toss coconuts into a net to get it heavy enough to drop. This iteration, of course, adds a climbing wall and a puzzle at the end.  Because in the modern era, you can’t have a tribal challenge without a puzzle at the end.  First two tribes to finish win immunity, losers have Tribal Council and lose their flint.  Because you know, that’s still a thing.  Pretty small-scale for a first immunity challenge, but I do have a fondness for “Survivor South Pacific” since it was the first season I blogged.  I feel like that buoys this one up into an “ok” in my book.  

There might have been some mystery before the challenge as to who would lose, but hoo boy, do they not even bother trying to hide it once the challenge gets started.  Little Lulu is behind pretty much the entire time.  There was a slow start from basically everyone except Kaleb on the mud-crawl portion, but it’s the climbing wall where they really struggle.  Multiple falls from multiple people.  I’ll give them credit for ingenuity in using their buffs to create hand-holds for those running up, but that alone is not enough.  They do eventually scale the wall, but as Probst says, it’s largely a moral victory by then.  For once the puzzle was irrelevant, and Belo and Reba win immunity, in that order.  

Being one of the people who fell off the wall multiple times means Brandon has now arguably cost his tribe two challenges (jury’s still out on how much his individual performance affected the outcome in the immunity challenge vs. Little Lulu just generally not doing well in that challenge), and he thinks himself very much in danger.  Feeling emotional about the whole thing, he goes full Gabler (“Survivor 43”) and threatens to use his Shot in the Dark round one.  Between this, the mat confessional, and being on the yellow tribe on an odd-numbered season, Brandon is guaranteed to win now.  

Spoiled ending aside (just joking, all you nitpickers), Brandon is not the only one feeling down.  Hannah admits that the elements are getting to her, and her heart just isn’t in it anymore.  She talks about just leaving, but Brandon talks her out of it.  He exaggerates, to be sure, telling her she “has” to keep going when no, objectively she does not.  She can choose not to.  It seems to work, though, and the pair discuss how to stay alive.  Unsurprisingly, their decision is to target Emily for being the outlier of the tribe, and while she hasn’t outright cost the tribe a challenge yet, she’s not a physical strength.  She struggled in the mud crawl, and everything we’ve seen makes it clear that Kaleb and Sabiyah are physically carrying the tribe.  

Naturally, this means to save herself, Emily starts targeting the pair, citing their bond.  Now, if I’m going to be completely fair, I can see some logic in this.  On tribes this size, a tight pair needs to be nipped in the bud, and while there’s been nothing explicit, Kaleb and Sabiyah have been together in a lot of stuff.  While definitely not the best in terms of keeping the tribe strong for challenges, especially since Emily explicitly prefers to target Kaleb, who is the only one without a weak performance in a challenge yet (even Sabiyah struggled on the mud crawl), there is a logic to it, especially if you think your tribe won’t win challenges regardless.  It’s a go big or go home strategy.  If it works, you’re set up really well in the long-term.  If it doesn’t, you’re likely out super early.  Fitting with Emily’s earlier confessional about preferring to be out first if she doesn’t win.  That said, it can’t be denied that this is probably not the optimal strategy for Emily in this moment.  Based on what we’ve seen, she’s the outside; lucky to not be receiving a major target (Kaleb wanting Brandon out for his challenge performance), so best to just keep her head down and throw Brandon and/or Hannah under the bus.  

I would also be remiss if I didn’t point out what may be a worrying trend with Emily.  While she has called her tribe in general “idiots” most of her targeted ire this episode has been towards Bruce, Kaleb, and Sabiyah.  While each of these individually has their own justification (how much you buy each justification may vary), one can’t help but notice that all three are African-American, and thus, one can’t help but wonder if there’s a bias, unconscious or otherwise.  This may very well not be the case, but notably, when Emily DOES turn her ire on Hannah later on, her tone is noticeably kinder.  Again, I want to make no assumptions about Emily, and it is also worth noting that the context in which that ire came out was different.  My hope is that Emily is more equanimous in her ire moving forward, and I still enjoy her calling stuff out, but yeah, if this pattern continues, it certainly tints my enjoyment of her character.  

Shock of all shocks, word of this gets back to Kaleb!  Brandon spills the beans in an attempt to save himself.  Despite this obvious reason to mistrust Emily, Kaleb still would prefer to vote out Brandon for “Tribe Strength” as we head off to Tribal Council.  If that’s really his only criterion, it makes sense, but on the whole, I think Emily would be the smarter decision.  She may not have directly cost the tribe a challenge thus far, but she’s not seen to be contributing much at this point either.  If she’s someone you can’t trust, and just generally grating on the tribe, no reason to get rid of her.  

Man alive this Tribal Council set is boring.  Seriously, I just finished watching the episode and I barely remember it!  Completely nondescript.  Hey, maybe if we moved out of Fiji every once in a while, we wouldn’t have this problem!

Initially, the events of Tribal Council are barely more memorable than Tribal Council itself.  Mostly just everyone talking about Tribe dynamics.  Not even an annoying metaphor to make fun of.  Thankfully, Emily is there to stir up more drama, first doing the smart thing of pointing out Brandon’s weakness in challenges, before being explicit about the threat the pair of Kaleb and Sabiyah are.  Hardly one to take things lying down, Sabiyah employs the Sean Rector defense of “Survivor Marquesas”, pointing out that people are assuming there’s something there when there’s no formal agreement.  Emily sticks to her guns, and a good bit of chaos starts to erupt…

And then Hannah derails the whole thing, telling us that this Tribal Council will be a non-starter.  Despite Brandon’s pep talk with her earlier, she’s stating she just can’t take it, and her heart isn’t in it.  Hoping for a good sound-byte, Probst asks Emily if this changes her mind, and she says it does.  This is where the Hannah ire I mentioned earlier comes in, as she does say that Hannah doesn’t deserve to be there.  Still, the tone is a lot less condescending than it has been, though again, that could just be her reacting to the somber mood of the situation.  Everyone follows suit in saying they would honor Hannah’s wishes, and so Probst forgoes the vote, and Hannah is gone.  

I must admit, this ending of the episode is a bit of a mixed-bag.  Ultimately a quit rather than a proper vote is kind of a wet fart of an ending, and not at all befitting the start to a season.  Really, this ends up feeling more like the first half of a two-part episode, where we’re introduced to the characters, but don’t really get the dramatic climax we’d expect.  That said, in terms of character, it IS nice that the person leaving was probably the least-interesting of those up on the dock.  Certainly another episode of Emily grating on everyone will make for some fun tv that we haven’t seen in a while from this show.  Really, my only complaint about Hannah’s exit is that it’s ANOTHER therapist doing poorly in the game, and this one from my hometown!  There really isn’t going to be another Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) is there?

How one ranks this episode would depend on what one’s looking for in said episode.  Most elements, from the challenge to the misdirection to the strategizing, were just ok.  Where this one really excels is in the character department.  This cast hits you full in the face with personality, and we get legitimate conflict for the first time in a while.  On the whole, while maybe not the strongest as a standalone episode, it does promise good things to come, and I hope it delivers on that promise.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

7 Sep

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.