Quick, gotta get one of these out before the next season’s cast gets announced, which I’m betting will be in the next week or two at the time of this writing. Better be a pretty simple change, preferably from a season I know pretty well… Yep, Cambodia will do nicely.
Before I delve into the change we’ll be exploring, however, there are a couple of notes that should be given out. Firstly, I myself did not TRULY come up with this scenario. Credit for that goes to the “Survivor” YouTuber Peridiam, whose content I quite enjoy. I’ll go into more detail when I discuss the change itself, but suffice to say, he informed me of something I did not previously know about in a recent video, and that led to the creation of this scenario you’ll be reading about. Thus, it’s fair to say this is really his idea, rather than mine.
The other note is the usual warning about SPOILERS! Given the nature of this season as a second chance for non-winners, I’ll not only be discussing the outcome from Cambodia on for the sake of comparison, I’ll also be spoiling a lot of earlier seasons as well. Thus, be wary should you read ahead. It will not be spoiler safe.
As you’ve now been duly warned, let us dive in.
THE IMPACT
Doubtless all my readers remember the Final Four of “Survivor Cambodia”. We’re left with two from San Juan del Sur, in Kelley and Jeremy, and two from Cagayan, in Spencer and Tasha. They end up competing for immunity in “Simmotion”, quickly becoming an all-too common final challenge, and an underwhelming one at that in my opinion (for those not familiar, I don’t think the challenge is bad per se, but it feels too small yet too complex for a final immunity challenge. Either give me some massive structure or a straight endurance challenge at the end.) Jeremy ended up winning, thereby getting rid of pretty much all doubt that anyone but Kelley was going home at that point. Granted, I don’t think most of us saw Spencer shooting himself in the foot quite as badly as he did, but still, pretty low tension.
What you may NOT know, or at least I didn’t know, is that this was NOT the first time this challenge was run that season. As Peridiam detailed in his “Top 10 Game-Ending Chokes in Survivor History” video, there was actually a practice round held before the actual challenge we saw. And THAT challenge ended quite differently, with Kelley creaming the competition. Only because a second round was needed did Jeremy win.
So, what if that DOESN’T happen? What if there’s not practice round, just one run of the challenge? Well, assuming that’s the first run, the same as in our timeline, then Kelley wins, obviously. I’d normally cover what’s next in the next section, but with how simple this change is, we can fudge the borders a bit. With Kelley now immune, I’d say Jeremy becomes the obvious target. He’d used his “shields” strategy well, but his shields were now gone. Kelley was aware of how big of a threat he was, so I’d wager Tasha and Spencer were as well. Couple that with Tasha and Spencer being allied on their original season, and Jeremy’s a goner here. How does this change the season? Find out in the next section.
THE FALLOUT
Kelley wins. Yeah, there’s not really a good, clever segue or lead-in to that. It’s the obvious outcome. Now, it’s fair to say that Kelley does not have the dominating performance that Jeremy does. If nothing else, Savage is never voting for her to win under basically any circumstances. But for the other votes? At a minimum, I’d say she has Kass, Ciera, Abi-Maria, Kimmi, and Keith on lock. That’s five out a needed six, and I’d say the likes of Joe, Kelly, and Jeremy lean in her favor as well. Fishbach is a bit more up in the air, but I could see him being persuaded to vote for her in certain circumstances. Point being, Kelley is easily the frontrunner to win. The rest of the changes, however, come in the section I call…
THE LEGACY
For once in this off-season, we’ve got something far back enough in the timeline that it actually changes returnee seasons a bit. Surprisingly, our first change is actually to “Survivor Game Changers” rather than “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, which Kelley was on in our timeline. But no, I say the cast of Game Changers is itself changed, simply due to the fact of Jeremy not winning. In our timeline, Jeremy was victorious one, with Kelley the good-but-robbed player. In the timeline of a Kelley victory, those roles are reversed. In our timeline, Kelley was asked to come back for Game Changers, but felt it was too soon. As such, I don’t doubt that Jeremy is asked back here as well, but he always seemed a bit hungrier for the win, so barring some external life circumstance, I don’t see him saying “no”. Much as I’d like to say he takes Varner’s place, I don’t see that happening.
The good news is that the Varner/Zeke incident probably doesn’t happen as a result of this change, but it’s because Zeke, not Varner, gets replaced by Jeremy. Zeke always seemed a bit “on the bubble” in terms of the cast; brought in more for being from a popular season than being super stand-out as a character his first time around. Not dissing the guy, to be clear. He seems like an awesome dude IRL, just not the biggest character from his season. Add on that it’s always dicey bringing back cast members from a season that just wrapped filming, and I’d say Jeremy is more of a slam-dunk for this spot than anyone else. Jeremy taking Zeke’s place changes that season in ways that would take a whole other blog to consider, so for now, we’ll leave that change here.
It may not come first, but as Kelley’s win makes her ineligible for “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, someone must take her place. I think the smart money would be on Chrissy Hoffbeck of “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”. They don’t quite fill the same demographic age-wise, but they are both women known for being good in challenges and overcoming great odds to make it near the end. Decent enough parallels, and I’d say Chrissy was/is popular enough to merit a second shot. Again, her place on the season changes too much to go over here, though I will say in the aggregate, I think she and David do worse than their placements in our timeline. Part of the reason Kelley and David were “successful” (at least compared to Joe and Aubry) is that they worked against one another, thus diluting their threat level in the eyes of the fans. Chrissy and David seem more on the same wavelength, and unless someone on Manu had the same hero-worship of Chrissy that Lauren had of Kelley, they do worse.
This, then, brings us to “Survivor Winners at War”, where I have no doubt Kelley is brought back. Popular winner from a popular season? Yeah, she’s a shoe-in, probably taking Michele’s spot given how controversial the latter’s win was. Shame, since it means we’re deprived of the Michele renaissance we got in our timeline, but these things happen. No Jeremy on Winners at War also means we need a replacement for him. As per usual with these blogs, I’m sticking with the safe choice of Mike Holloway from “Survivor Worlds Apart” getting the slot. The man made it far in casting in our timeline, only getting cut due to spots just not being available. One becomes available? Production takes him in a heartbeat.
I mentioned Kelley being a popular winner from a popular season, and surprise surprise, I meant it. Cambodia is hardly reviled in our timeline, with only those who strongly favor character over strategy having much negative to say about it. Kelley’s win doesn’t change the validity of that criticism, but I don’t see her hurting the legacy of the season any more than Jeremy’s win does in our timeline. If anything, the season is an even bigger deal than in our timeline. We’ll rightly laud Jeremy for playing a smart game, but in terms of the show, it wasn’t a particularly “flashy” win. Kelley, in contrast, has the “Wentworth, will not count” as the iconic moment of the season. Even in our timeline, I’d say it’s remembered as the highlight of the season. As the crux of a winner’s story? Yeah, it’s one for the history books. There’s also just the fact that Kelley perhaps more than anyone else on the season, exemplifies the idea of the “second chance”. She was tied for earliest boot on the season with Kimmi, and then she comes back and wins? That’s an arc you can’t write, and it’s amazing to watch when it happens.
As a final, random change this makes to the timeline, of all people, Drew Christy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” is oddly given a bit more credit than in our timeline. Don’t misunderstand, he’s still by and large the butt of the joke with just how much the edit dunks on him and his decisions throughout his boot episode. “The Fall of Drew Christy” is easily one of the funniest things to come out of modern “Survivor”. But now, with a Kelley win? People look back on his out-of-nowhere quest to get rid of her, to the point of throwing a challenge just to eliminate her, and think “Yeah, this guy’s an idiot in his execution, but maybe he was on to something with the general idea.” Man, that’s a weird timeline to think about.
Speaking of weird timelines, thanks for following this one! Always appreciate people taking the time to peruse my weird ramblings. To help ensure I have more of them, let me know down in the comments what you’d like me to examine next! The general guidelines for what sorts of submissions will be considered are listed below.
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”. As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect. However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on. You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet. For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Cambodia, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols, Winners at War.
As always, thank you so much for following my mad ramblings, and I look forward to hearing what you want to read next in the comments!
-Matt
idolspeculation 