Congratulations to Rob for correctly identifying the title quote from last episode as originating from Charlie Herschel of “Survivor Gabon”. Yes, I’m well aware that the contest was over a year ago, but so help me, we haven’t had a “regular” blog since then, and this commenter has EARNED their honor, delayed as it may be.
Friends, readers, random-internet-passers-by, it is my pleasure, once again, to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! Yes, after over a year of starvation, we finally, FINALLY have new “Survivor” content to talk about. Granted, I could wish for a bit more. I mean, we have gotten the “EW” pictures and biographies, which are usually the marker for when I do these Cast Assessments, but you don’t want to give us anything? No photos and bios of your own? No videos of each of the contestants talking about their strategy? You’re not even going to give us the official tribe divisions? Of course not! I mean, HEAVEN FORBID we know who’s playing with whom before the start of the season! How dare we analyze tribe dynamics, and speculate pre-season, thereby driving up interest and internet traffic? Do you know where that leads? Chaos! Chaos I say!
Ok, ok, enough griping at CBS. I can still work with this, even if it’s not as much as I’m used to, and I can’t analyze tribe dynamics as I normally do (yes, I’m aware that there’s a rumored tribe division from “Inside Survivor”, but until the divisions are announced officially, I don’t consider it canon, and thus won’t write about it. And I’m not going to frame-by-frame the preview we DID get to try and match people with buff colors. I do have something of a life). So, no more joking around. let us dig into the new players we, at long last, get to overanalyze.
Sydney Segal (26, Law Student, Brooklyn, NY): Always nice to start off a cast assessment with a strong contender. Yes, I think Sydney is slated to do pretty well on this season. By and large, her bio is nothing to write home about. Pretty standard stuff, talking about how social and athletic she is. I find it a little weird to specifically refer to your father as a “second Messiah”, but hey, you do you. The thing that stood out to me, and the thing that makes me high on Sydney’s chances, is the “Survivor” she compares herself to. If you’re someone new to reading cast bios, you should know that there’s a group of about a half-dozen former players who generally show up in people’s biographies. You can expect Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”), Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”), Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”), and Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) always show up, and to me, always spell doom for whoever picks the latter. Then, of course, there are the “recency bias” picks, i.e. good players, but ones who only come from the most recent seasons, indicating this may just be someone production emphasized to the player. Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) falls into this category, but she seems to have been replaced by Rick Devans (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) based on this most recent set of bios. Now, who does Sydney say she’s most like? Natalie White, winner of “Survivor Samoa”. That’s a deep cut, right there. Hard for anyone to stand out on “Survivor Samoa”, aka “The Russell Hantz Show”, so Syndey’s memory of her tells me she’s got the bona-fides. Sydney also has a good analysis of Natalie’s game, noting her strength in social bonds and flying under the radar. A solid analysis, and hardly a bad strategy for the game at all. Sadly, I think Sydney is screwed out of a possible win by the age in which she plays “Survivor”. Not to say that the “Natalie Strategy” as we may call it isn’t valid anymore, but the new jury format is pretty much set up to reward “big moves”, and more visible games. While the “Natalie Strategy” has many upsides, visibility is not one of them. Still, even if she’s unlikely to win, expect Sydney to stick around a while. She’s got some good skills and is largely inoffensive, so there’s no need to boot her early. Look to her as a later merge boot, possibly even one of the people out early in the finale. Sure, I may be extrapolating a lot from a bio that didn’t give us a lot, but hey, if you don’t do anything that stands out as making you an early target, I say you’ve got at least a decent chance. Besides, you could also say that Michele Fitzgerald’s bio on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” didn’t give us a lot to work with, and we saw how that turned out.
Danny McCray (33, Ex-NFL Player, Frisco, TX): Hoo boy. It’s time once again. Time for the segment of “People Who Are Crazy For Thinking They’re Made For This Show”. Look, Danny seems like a nice, overall dude. I admire him for not just relying on his talent in sports to carry him through his entire life, and his drive to continue to improve himself at what the show considers an “older” age. But one of the main things I look at in these bios is the “Pet Peeve” section, since I feel it can give a good idea of how well you get along with others, and if your first pet peeve is “Lying”? Man, what were you thinking! Sure, go on the show all about lying and backstabbing when that very thing gets to you. See how far that gets you. Danny has a lot of good characteristics, but unless his tribe needs physical strength very badly, or he’s able to put his distaste for lying aside, the man is a pre-merge boot for sure.
Liana Wallace (20, College Student, Washington, DC): I’ll admit, I got a bit worried when I saw Liana talk about performing her spoken word poetry. Nothing against the art form or those who practice it, but it gave me flashbacks to Semhar from “Survivor South Pacific”, whose game is NOT one you want to emulate. Thankfully, this is where their similarities end, so I think Liana will do pretty well on the show. Not a lot to recommend her one way or the other. She just seems like a nice, adventurous, younger player who won’t hold her team back anyway, and be pretty inoffensive overall. Two things stop me from saying she’ll make it too deep, though. She suggests emulating Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Elaine (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), so I don’t know about her game knowledge credentials, as both were on the last two seasons. Plus, I don’t see their play styles meshing very well. The real thing that I think holds her back from a win, though, is her age. I know we’ve had winners nearly as young before, but I think back to my college days, and even though I THOUGHT I had the skills to win at that time, I really didn’t. I had more growing-up to do, and while Liana seems lovely overall, I just have a hard time saying anyone that young has a good shot at winning. Still, like Sydney earlier, Liana is an inoffensive asset to her tribe, so I expect her to be out no earlier than the early-merge, and probably more like mid-merge, given the group of people on this season.
Brad Reese (50, Rancher, Shawnee, WY): A fun fact about Brad is that he’s the first player to ever hail from the state of Wyoming. Perhaps not surprising, as it does have the smallest population in the USA, but still fun. I hope Brad enjoys that fact, because there’s little else to recommend him. His bio gives us practically nothing, just a lot of generic platitudes about strength and outdoorsmanship. As such, we have to consider how well he fits in with this group of players as a whole. Not well. The answer is not well. Brad has the misfortune of being an older guy on a season that, while not as bad as some, skews young overall. Brad is a rural outdoorsman, while most of this cast is urban. If Brad had talked a bit about his ability to fit in with diverse groups of people, I might give him more of a shot, but amongst this group, Brad sticks out like a sore thumb, and I just don’t see him getting along with these people. As such, Brad is my pick to be the first person out this season. Sorry, Brad, and sorry, Wyoming. Maybe you can get another player with a group more simpatico to their lifestyle.
Erika Casupanan (32, Communication Manager, Toronto, ON): At last, Canada has a representative on this show! Ok, yeah, they had Tom Laidlaw on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but really, did they, for all the impact Tom had on the season? Besides, Erika is a MUCH better representative overall. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we go from the worst to the best. Erika is one of my two winner picks for this season! Why, you may ask? Well, as with most of the winners, she has a good balance. Athletic, without seeming to be a threat. Sociable, without descending into obsequiousness. From her questionnaire, while she does list “ignorance” as one of her pet peeves, she’s not guaranteed to come up against it, and her other, “men in ill-fitting jeans” shows a good sense of humor on her part, always an asset. She calls out good but less remembered-players in Brenda (“Survivor Nicaragua”) and Todd (“Survivor China”) as her inspirations. And all in an unassuming package. If I HAD to find a flaw that could cost her the game, I could see her being slightly arrogant. She talks about paying off her student loan debt at age 27, and if she brags about that, or how smart she is, that could cost her. That said, she seems to have enough social sense to keep that on the down-low, and I can easily see her rocketing to victory.
Jairus Robinson (20, College Student”, Oklahoma City, OK): Jairus is one of the few players here that I have a bit more information on than some of the others. His audition video happened to show up on YouTube, and I watched it. This is good, because a lot of Jairus’ bio comes off as overconfident, talking about how he’s good socially, mentally, and physically. Pretty generic, semi-bragging stuff that you see from most people, but again, especially with his age, could easily be him having a bad perception of himself. Having seen his audition video, I can say that’s he’s not ENTIRELY unjustified in his claims. If nothing else, the dude just EXUDES charm, and even from a 3-minute video, you can’t help but like the guy. So yeah, of all the young people on this season, he’s the one I think his age will be least a factor for. Still a factor, though. Jairus will do reasonably well, being useful to his tribe and charming enough to work his way into an alliance, but will be blindsided some time in the mid-merge, just by being proverbially spun around by contestants with more life experience. Good fodder for a returnee winner, though.
Evvie Jagoda (28, Ph.D. Student, Arlington, MA): This is where the lack of tribe divisions gives me issue, as Evvie’s time in the game is almost entirely dependent on who she ends up playing with early game. Her pet peeve, you see, is “machismo and man-splainers”. There are some guys like that on the season, and thus who she’ll come into conflict with if she’s with them. Given that these type of people tend to be useful in challenges, and thus more likely to be kept around, she’s probably out early if she’s with some of them. Conversely, if she ends up on a tribe without such men, I could see her doing well. She seems like she’d be a sensible, reliable alliance member. A bit quirky, perhaps, but fun nonetheless. That said, this blog does force me to pick one side or the other, and without the benefit of tribe divisions to give me an easy out… Sorry, Evvie, but I think you’re another pre-merge boot. While I personally enjoy someone who’s quirky, and can hold a good, intelligent conversation (she spent an entire podcast talking about Neanderthal women. That is awesome.), said type of person also tends to stand out in a crowd, not a good thing in the early days of “Survivor”. I pray that I’m wrong, as I really like her and think she makes for good tv, but if I have to choose, I think pre-merge for her, unfortunately.
Ricard Foye (31, Flight Attendant, Sedro-Wooley, WA): Apologies for not having an accent over the “e” in “Foye”, but I can never remember how to do that with a standard English keyboard. Getting onto Ricard specifically, I like the guy. In fact, I’d say he’s my favorite of the season. He’s charming, but still with a personality that stands out. Dude has a lot of eclectic life experiences, but still down to earth with a relatable career and family life. And that smile. Dude just has a really engaging smile. That alone may be enough to catapult him to victory, as Ricard is my second winner pick overall. Put a gun to my head and force me to choose, I think Erika beats him, but Ricard still has pretty good shot. Once again fairly athletic, but not obviously so. But like I said, the dude just exudes charm, and I’m a social game like “Survivor”, it’s hard to discount the value of that. With no major negatives that I can note, I can’t help but give the guy my seal of approval, and my second winner pick. Plus, the dude says he wants to emulate Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”). Can’t help but like a dude that likes Aubry.
Shantel Smith (34, Pastor, Washington, DC): Ooh, sorry, Canada. Not hitting on both cylinders, even this time. Yes, I know that Shantel is currently not living in Canada, but it’s her hometown, so she still counts. At first, I was pretty high on Shantel. Good age for self-knowledge and game knowledge. Good life experience. “Bad breath” as a pet peeve a bit concerning, but hey, you don’t need to stand nose-to-nose with someone while they’re talking, and maybe her tribe will win the “toothbrush and mouthwash” reward. A good role model in Xena. But ooh, the religion angle. Long-time readers will know I’m gun-shy about such overt religion on “Survivor” ever since we were seeped in it in “Survivor South Pacific”. Yes, since then some overtly religious individuals such as Lisa Welchel (“Survivor Philippines”) or Sunday Burquest (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) have done well, but the overall trend is more towards religion separating that person from other, less-religious people, particularly in a largely a-religious cast like this one seems to be. I tried to ignore it, and when Shantel predominately cites her “reverence for God”, as why she’ll win, I can’t ignore it any longer. She’s not the first boot by any means, but I expect her out pre-merge.
Naseer Muttalif (37, Sales Manager, Morgan Hill, CA): Poor Naseer. The guy seems like an interesting character with a unique backstory, so I wanted to see him do well. Sales is one of the few careers that I think CAN help one prepare for “Survivor” in some small way, so I hoped that Naseer might be able to parlay that into a long stay in the game. Unfortunately, the rest of his bio does not do him any favors. His pet peeves are “Laziness and people who don’t contribute to group efforts”, meaning unless he’s on a VERY cohesive and successful tribe early on, he’s going to rub some people the wrong way. Then you have to add onto that his backstory, which is interesting. He talks about coming up from being a vegetable farmer, and growing up without electricity in Sri Lanka. Good stuff, but the dude comes across a bit arrogant, in the “I’m living the American Dream” kind of way. Not saying he hasn’t earned it, but that kind of talk can get old fast, and if he keeps bringing it up, it won’t do him any favors. It’s possible he can be more sociable thanks to his sales training, and if his tribe is successful early on, he might make the merge. There, though, he becomes a threat, so I see him making it no farther than an early-merge boot of this season, unfortunately.
Genie Chen (46, Grocery Clerk, Portland, OR): Ack! Pain! PAIN! This hurts. So much. God Damn, I love Genie already. An older lady who likes video games. An older lady not afraid to get out and hustle. Her pet peeves revolve around proper mask wearing, you guys! If you don’t love Genie at least a little, then I don’t know what happened to you. But love, unfortunately, does not win the game of “Survivor”, and much like Evvie, the very things that make me like her are the things that make her a likely early boot on the show. She’s older and not as athletic; always an issue in the early game. She stands out from the other contestants, which again, good tv, bad for game. Unless she’s on an exceptionally winning tribe, she’s going to be an early target and our screens will be the worse for it. I hope that I’m wrong. I hope she becomes the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and shows us heretofore unexpected social prowess that allows her to get deep and dominate the game! More likely, however, she’s yet another pre-merge boot.
Xander Hastings (21, App Developer, Chicago, IL): I swear this bio must be wrong. It may say he’s 21, but the guy gives off more of a “20 year old” vibe than any of the ACTUAL 20 year olds! A dude-bro to the end, the dude focusses on athletics above all else. Hell, his idols in the game are predominately Jay (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”), but also Joe (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and Devon (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”). Maybe it’s just my disdain for the dude-bro archetype (a large contributing factor in why I disagree with those who say Reynold from “Survivor Caramoan” should play again), but I REALLY don’t like this guy, and I get the sense that others won’t as well. I would not put any of the above players into the “stellar player” category, but Xander is DEFINITELY beneath them. Those guys had a certain charm, and at least a MODICUM on intelligence to help them get by. I get none of that from Xander, and thus, he is yet another pre-merge boot. Plus, on top off all that stuff, his pet peeves are “Laziness and cockiness”, two things that are clearly NEVER seen on this show (please note the sarcasm)!
Sara Wilson (24, Healthcare Consultant, Boston MA): Well, there’s one of these in every cast assessment. One person who I just can’t get a good read on. Nothing. This woman gives me nothing. Her pet peeves are pretty typical (loud chewing, crude humor, etc.), with only uncleanliness standing out at all, and even then only in a minor way. Admires Kim Spradlin of “Survivor One World”, which is always a plus, though I’m not sure Sara has the life experience to pull it off. And that’s it. that’s all I’ve got for her. She’s inoffensive, but doesn’t make a big splash on the tv screen. That said, being quiet can be an advantage, and again, like with Sydney, if you’ve got nothing holding you back, I’m inclined to think you’ll do well. We may not see much of Sara, but she’ll be there a while. Probably out somewhere in the mid-merge area, as a blindside vote to avoid an idol.
David Voce (35, Neurosurgeon, Chicago, IL): Once again, bad flashbacks based on an element of the bio. This time, I see “Neurosurgeon”, and I jump to Sean Kenniff of “Survivor Borneo”. Terrible at strategy, but hey, fun to watch. Sadly, while David definitely has a leg up on Sean in terms of strategy, I’d say charm is severely lacking. Similar to Xander, his pet peeves are “incompetence, laziness, and a lack of self-awareness”. Can pretty much guarantee at least 2/3 of those on any given tribe on any given season. Dude’s smart, which can help, but admits to a “confident exterior”, which can lead to arrogance, which again, get’s old fast. His nail in the coffin is that he’s yet another person who thinks it’s a good idea to emulate Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”). To be fair, he DOES acknowledge the flaws in Russell’s game, and names several other players he feels he embodies, but it’s a resume stain that’s REALLY hard to rub away. He’s lucky in that there’s a couple of other players we’ve talked about so far (Xander in particular), who have some similar issues that he does, and in a greater capacity in my assessment, which may make him seem more reasonable and even-keeled by comparison. The thought won’t go away in others, however, particularly if David doesn’t end up on a tribe with someone else as confident as him He’s probably smart enough to slip by pre-merge, but once all the other people who annoy the rest of the cast are gone, he’s on the chopping block. Assuming another oversized merge, he’s probably the easy consensus boot for annoying everyone else, and goes then.
Deshawn Radden (26, Medical Student, Miami, FL): I’ve been kind of hard on the guys lately, haven’t I? Thankfully, Deshawn gives me a well-deserved break from that! The dude starts out a bit weak in his bio, to be fair. Pet peeve is being told what to do, which is bound to come up. Apart from that, however, the man is solid. Another athlete who is not obviously athletic, and a charmer with a great smile. Obviously a thinker, but not leaning into the “nerd” archetype so much, which makes for a nice change. Yeah, a lot of other people have said similar things, and I gave them flak for it, but I’m charmed by the guy even just looking at his picture. If, in the game, he has even a fraction of that charm, he’ll go far. The pet peeve is enough to keep him out of a possible winner’s slot for me, and if he does get into an argument with the wrong person, he could go early, but I’d expect his charm to carry him for a while. Probably mid-to-late merge area, if I were to put a relative number on it.
Tiffany Seely (47, Teacher, Plainview, NY): Another case where I REALLY wish we had tribe divisions. Tiffany is our “Mom” of the season, an archetype with an overall bad track record outside of Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”). Granted, this season has a fair share of “older players”, but it still skews young, and the general trend on “Survivor” is that the young people either vote out the “Mom” early, or let her get to the end and then are upset that she voted them out. Tiffany really needs to be on a tribe with a couple other older people, both for camouflage and to prevent being cast too fully as the “Mom”. Not helped are her choices of whom to emulate on the season. I’m always a fan when people name a contestant of a different gender whom they’re like, but Ozzy (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Colby (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) are not the type of games that do well these days. Unless she gets lucky with the tribe draw, expect Tiffany to be a pre-merge boot.
Eric Abraham (51, Cyber Security Analyst, San Antonio, TX): Eric falls into the rare “Dad” archetype, in my assessment. This makes him tough to analyze, as there’s not really anyone else who falls into the “Dad” role so easily and obviously as Eric does. I thought they might focus on his cyber-security job; come across as really analytical and the like But Eric seems to see himself more as a father and family man than anything. This can be good and comforting, and while a benefit, I don’t see him winning “Survivor” with that strategy. It falls into a similar pitfall as the “Mom” archetype, with any betrayal seeming personal. Plus, anyone with an Oedipus complex is going to want Eric out. While it’s hard to psychoanalyze people based off a short interview, however, I don’t see anyone going quite that far, and thus, I don’t see Eric being an early target. Yes, he is old. In fact, he’s the second-oldest person playing this season. But you wouldn’t know it from looking at him, so unless he’s the reason his tribe loses an early challenge, I expect Eric’s fatherly demeanor to keep him around a while. Probably a mid-merge boot, maybe a bit earlier if someone really wants to go full Oedipus.
Heather Aldret (52, Stay-at-Home Mom, Charleston SC): Well, I spoke too soon. Meet the ACTUAL mom archetype of the season, as well as the oldest person playing. Sadly for Heather, I don’t think she has even Tiffany’s ability to blend in. Older, not obviously athletic, an archetype with a tendency to go out early? Yeah, she may pay lip service to her skills at observation, and make reasonable player comparisons for herself, but unless she surprises me with evidence to back it up, I don’t see her lasting very long. Even if she ends up on a tribe with other “older” players, she’s from a different lifestyle than most of the other players this season. Nothing wrong with that, but it makes it difficult for her to fit in, and thus tanks her chances in the game. We end on the downer note of one final pre-merge boot.
Man, that was refreshing! I may not be able to discuss tribe dynamics here but I can still discuss the cast. I’ve gotta say, I think it’s a pretty good one. In the COVID-19 Hiatus, amongst other things, CBS promised more diversity in casting, with at least 50% of each cast being BIPOC, a decision I’m all for, and I think this cast alone shows the benefits of doing so! For all my snark, this is overall an engaging, likable cast. Most everyone brings at least some unique experience to the table that adds to the flavor of the whole season, and there’s no one I really dislike on sight (except for Xander, and I’ll leave myself open to the possibility that his bio brought out the worst in him, and he’ll actually be quite a likable guy on-screen). Obviously, we don’t know how things could play out, but based on the VERY little information we’ve gotten, I’m optimistic about how this season will play out.
Then, we should at least talk a bit about the one video CBS DID deign to give us: A 3-minute preview where Probst talks about things to come. First off, I was glad to see that they’re not hiding the fact that the season is shortened due to COVID-19. I have nothing against them shortening the season, recognizing its necessity, but was afraid they might try and pull the wool over our eyes. Thankfully, they fully admit the abbreviated nature of the season, and as such, I default to what seems to be people’s general attitudes towards this change: “Nothing wrong with it, but I hope it doesn’t stay as a permanent fixture post-COVID”. As a fan who does enjoy the challenges, I fear that if seasons stay abbreviated, those’ll be the first things to get the axe. The game will still be the game we all enjoy, and faster or slower, it’s good to have it back. If this is what it takes, it’s a more than fair price.
Probst was also keen to tout simple play-along picture puzzles for younger viewers. Unless they’re super-intrusive, and distract from the game, I don’t mind the inclusion. The puzzles seemed a bit simplistic to me, but hey, they’re explicitly for kids, and engagement is a good thing. One of the few things I actually liked about “Survivor Nicaragua” was the giving us a similarly-styled idol clue to try and figure out before the players. Fun, engaging idea. Just don’t let it get in the way of what we came to see.
The announcement I have the most opinions on, though, is the “asides”. Probst has said he and production plan to let fans watching know about twists thrown in the game before they happen. I’ll have to wait and see how they’re implemented before giving a final judgement, but I’m not a fan of this idea at the outset. Don’t misunderstand, I get why they plan to do it. It’s more engagement, like with the puzzles, though this time more for the older fans watching. But for me, I feel like we superfans already did that. Whenever some new twist or opportunity was in the game, we always backseat game. Debated what we would have done in another player’s shoes. But above all, knowing the twist before it happens ruins the surprise, and kind of kills the engagement in a way. When we learn about a twist the same time as the players, we can play along with them. React in the moment. Probst, however, is talking about letting us know the twists early, before the players do. This gives us more time to think, and actually removes us more from the players, rather than bringing us closer to them. Plus, when the show is already struggling to fit everything it has into its short air time, extra narration is something we DO NOT NEED!
That said, it’s usually cast, not production decisions, that make or break a season. There are exceptions (see “Survivor Edge of Extinction”), but on the whole, you have a good cast, you have a good season. For my money, it looks like “Survivor 41” has quite a good cast, so I look forward to writing with you all about them on a weekly basis come September 22nd!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 