“Survivor” What-Ifs: Exile Island

Well, so far on “‘Survivor’ What-If’s”, we’ve explored changing the timeline right after the merge, and near the end of the game. With such nebulous groups, there’s only one place left to go: The very end of the game, of course! Recapping how an entire season changes based on a change in the first boot is, to be frank, too unpredictable to be interesting. Some might argue that a small change at the end also makes things uninteresting, but given that this also examines how future seasons are impacted, it can be fun to see how things will fall out with a different overall outcome, even if little else changes. Ironically, for the first season where we’re looking late in the timeline, we actually have to go back fairly early in the overall “Survivor” timeline. Yes, it’s time to talk about what’s arguably the first season of “Survivor” I watched, “Survivor Exile Island”.

Before we dive into discussion, though, a quick reminder that this blog contains the dreaded SPOILERS! It’s hard to talk about an alternate way a season goes down without comparing it to how it went down in our time, so if you haven’t seen “Survivor Exile Island” or any subsequent seasons, make sure you’re prepared for any lack of enjoyment you may experience as a result of this blog. For the rest of us, let us begin with…

THE IMPACT: When I say we’re making a change at the end, I mean that about as late as can possibly be. Danielle, as you’ll recall, won the Final Immunity Challenge on Day 38, and agonized over who to take to the end between Terry and Aras. In our timeline, she chooses Aras, which I’d personally say was probably her safer bet, but let’s say Danielle thought differently at the time. Terry previously giving her his hidden immunity idol would violate my “Two Independant Changes” Rule (and also be a really dumb move for Terry), so let’s instead say that Danielle calculated out potential votes, and figured that with the ex La Mina all voting for Aras, following Terry’s lead, plus Shane hating her guts, there’s no way she could win against Aras. With Terry, however, she can hope that old Casaya loyalty, and not wanting to see a former La Mina win the game, wins her the votes of a majority-Casaya jury. Thus, Danielle votes Terry off.

THE FALLOUT: Danielle is incorrect. She was losing no matter what, and Terry wins by a 5-2 vote. Oddly, this is exactly the same ratio that Danielle loses by in our own timeline, though who votes for her differ slightly. Bringing Terry to the end gains her Cirie’s vote, but loses her Shane’s. Since we’re so near the end, that really does it for this section. Timeline changes so near the end really don’t have much impact on the season proper. On subsequent seasons, though? Hoo boy, this is a doozy!

THE LEGACY: Now, on the surface, this change actually doesn’t seem to do much. Most of the breakout characters remain breakout characters. A Terry win does not erase the impact of Cirie, nor the comedy gold of Shane. Aras might fade into the background a bit more than he does in our timeline, but I’d argue he’s not one of the more well-remembered winners to begin with, and given how random the casting for “Survivor Blood vs. Water” was, I think we still get him and Vytas later on. That season perhaps sees a slightly more aggressive Aras, hungry for a win, and we’re more likely to see Aras later on as a result, but ultimately, not much changes with any of the Casaya people.

What does change is Terry. Now, saying that Terry was not a major character of the season does a disservice even in our own timeline. The only reason Terry wasn’t the breakout star of the season was an unlucky combination of being on the same season as Cirie, and Ozzy coming along one season later to do what Terry did with more success, thus supplanting his spot in returnee seasons. In a timeline where Terry WINS? You can bet he’s not fading into the background. Cirie may be the breakout star of the season, but Terry comes in a close second. He’s fairly likable for the general public, he’s basically the first guy to immunity his way to the end, and most importantly, he breaks the car curse. Yeah, for those of you who are late-comers too “Survivor”, let me fill you in on a bit of history: Starting with “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and going fairly steady through “Survivor Fiji”, one reward challenge would have the winner take home a car. However, as the seasons passed, people started to notice that whoever won the car did not go on to win “Survivor”. There were some close run things, like Colby nearly winning “Survivor The Australian Outback”, but ultimately, no victors also won a car on the show (unless the car was part of the prize for winning, along with the million dollars). A victory by Terry changes that, and he’s forever immortalized as “The Guy Who Broke the Car Curse”. The subsequent elimination of the car reward also posthumously makes more sense as a result, its death throes on “Survivor Fiji” notwithstanding.

So Terry’s a bigger deal, now. What’s the big deal about that? Initially, not much. “Survivor Micronesia” is the next returnee season, and while Terry is definitely given serious consideration for it, the halving of returnees for new contestants, and the rise of Ozzy screws him (along with, I would argue, the returnee potential of “Survivor Guatemala”) out of a spot there, with the final nail in the coffin being the lack of winners being invited for that season. “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” is another matter. “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” is the 10th anniversary season. It’s about milestones. It’s about icons of “Survivor”. If someone broke the car curse, you can bet they’d be considered an icon. I see no way, in this timeline, that Terry doesn’t get the invite back for “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. Presumably, he’s on the “Heroes” tribe, taking up Tom Westman’s spot. Tom was iffy about coming back to begin with, and while “Survivor Palau” probably remains the more iconic season overall, in this timeline, Terry is the bigger winner, dominating challenges like Tom, being the good guy, like Tom, but coming from an underdog position, rather than the tribe that just steamrolled the other. I don’t think Terry does much better than Tom in this scenario, though I do think Terry’s a bit quicker to abandon Colby to his fate once it becomes clear he’s in the minority. This MAYBE gets him to the merge, but I’d be a bit surprised, and ultimately, it doesn’t change much about “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.

Moving on, the next change as a result of this comes from “Survivor Cambodia”. In our timeline, Terry was on that season. With him as a former winner, plus a two-time contestant, he’s now disqualified from the vote. Thus, someone else goes on that season in his stead. Based on the reports of who was considered, I’m inclined to say Hayden from “Survivor Blood vs. Water” probably isn’t cut from the vote, and is eligible as an option. Possibly he gets on instead, but I’m more inclined to say that Shane ends up taking the spot ultimately filled by Terry. Regardless of who gets on, though, what does change is the merge of “Survivor Cambodia”. Without the gut-wrenching illness of Danny, Terry’s son, there’s no need for someone to leave the game unexpectedly, thus meaning that “Survivor Cambodia” merges at the final fourteen contestants, and assuming the jury was always meant to start at 13, means Kass likely doesn’t make the jury. Overall, I prefer our timeline on this one. Apart from being a big fan of Kass, merges at 13 are chaotic enough. Opening up the door to 14 is just too much for me.

Now, this could be where Terry’s story ends. Having won, he might not feel the need to play a third time. Plus, ending things here would be easier on my writing. However, I feel duty bound to point out that, having made such an impact on the show in this timeline, Terry is probably up for consideration for “Survivor Game Changers”. My guess would be that he probably takes Brad Culpepper’s spot, since both fit the archetype of the older leader, but JT’s spot is also a possibility. Either way, I don’t think it has as much impact on the season as we might hope, but it’s an interesting possibility.

This has been a weird one for me to write, in that the timeline does change, but only because of and around one person. When we hit the point where the ripples are too chaotic to see what would happen, we’ve already got ourselves a possible 3-time returnee, an early merge, and a “Survivor” legacy with really no equivalent in this timeline. Which one is better? I leave that up to you. I also leave the possibility of future timelines up to you! Feel free to suggest new timelines for me to examine in the comments below/on social media. Anything goes, but please bear in mind my three ground rules for timeline alteration suggestions:

One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in talking about it.
The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol for himself in that same episode, meaning the flip doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.

Well, we’ve got through the three types of timeline changes I wanted to try out. Now onto randomly doing whatever I find interesting! As always, your feedback is appreciated, and remember to be kind to each other!

-Matt

“Survivor” What-Ifs: Redemption Island

Well, last time we saw how one small change could turn a top-tier season into one that’s just… ok. This time, let’s see if making one small change to a season that is hated can produce the opposite result. Though given that our subject today is “Survivor Redemption Island”, it would be difficult to make things worse.

Welcome back to “‘Survivor’ What Ifs”, where I go back, change one small moment in “Survivor” history, and see the ripple effect it has throughout the season, as well as future seasons. Since we went over the format in the last blog, I’ll skip over a lot of it today, and just get right into the speculating. A quick reminder, though, that this blog assumes that the reader has already seen the season, and does not pull any punches accordingly. More succinctly, there are SPOILERS ahead, so read at your own risk. That said, let’s rewind space-time, and see if we can’t create a better world…

THE IMPACT: The moment most suited to changing “Survivor Redemption Island” seems to me to be at the merge. The Final 12. Specifically, we’re going to change the impact of one Andrea Boehlke on Matt Elrod. Yes, you may recall that Matt was initially out for revenge, before inexplicably swearing his loyalty to the man who had got him voted out before. Unsurprisingly, this led to his immediate exit, and with Andrea now having few options, led to the downfall of the former Zapatera tribe, and the inevitable march to victory of Boston Rob. This is really the last time in the game he could realistically have been challenged, so let’s give him that challenge. Let’s say that Andrea realized Matt would need a bit of watching, and so stuck to him, continually whispering in his ear about the threat that Boston Rob poses. This, in turn, leads to Matt and Andrea sticking with the Zapateras at the merge.

Now, here’s what I think is interesting about this change to the timeline: On a surface level, it changes almost nothing about the episode. Despite this change, in this timeline Matt still goes here. That part was inevitable. What DOES change is the mechanism by which he goes. You see, Andrea sticking so close to Matt has a bit of a cascade effect. Say what you will about Boston Rob, but he’s no dummy. I don’t doubt that he would have noticed how close Andrea was sticking to Matt, and how close the pair of them were to the Zapateras. Also remember that Rob had an idol at this point. Put these two together, coupled with confirmation for Rob that Matt’s against him, and I don’t doubt Rob plays his idol, and plays it correctly. Thus, Matt still goes home, but now Rob has to burn an idol to do so. That, plus the fracturing of Ometepe, makes all the difference.

THE FALLOUT: This is the section that suffers the most from having the change in the timeline set so far back in the season. With my previous blog, I was basically able to go blow-by-blow of how the season would progress. Here, though? With so many immunity challenges, plus new idols to be found, it’s pretty much an impossible task, both from a statistical standpoint and from a blogging one. Instead, I’ll be giving generalities on how the overall season would have gone from this point forward.

The first thing to bear in mind here is that, unlike our timeline where Andrea tried (poorly) to play both sides, this time she is now firmly in with the Zapateras. This sinks her chances at the game, but also gives the Zapateras an edge. While it’s impossible to say who finds Boston Rob’s re-hidden immunity idol, the numbers alone mean someone in the Zapatera alliance probably finds it. Bear in mind, while Rob had more OVERALL experience with “Survivor”, he had only been on one prior season with hidden immunity idols, and then didn’t really go looking for it. Both Ometepe and Zapatera had found one idol each, so they would have had a roughly equal chance of finding it. Given that they have an extra player now, that gives them the edge.

So, with no real recourse left, Ometepe is pretty much doomed, right? This should just be another Pagonging, but the reverse of what we had in our time, right? Not exactly. Remember that part of what made Zapatera the more interesting tribe overall was that, unlike Ometepe, they were a fractious bunch, more given to infighting than Ometepe. They could unite in the face of a common enemy, but tended to cave when there was no enemy left to fight, thus explaining the difference between Zapatera with Russell Hantz versus Zapatera without Russell Hantz. Come the merge, they now have a new common enemy in Boston Rob, and so their game probably becomes about getting him out, along with the other physically strong members of Ometepe. There’s an argument to be made for Rob going on an immunity run, but given that even in our timeline this didn’t happen, I doubt it happens here. So he gets picked off at some point in the early merge, along with Grant for his strength, and Phillip, mostly because he annoys everyone. But then? Oh, then the Zapateros start turning on each other. David probably plays too hard, too fast, and goes home. Mike is also probably a huge target for his strength, and since that’s what the tribe’s been doing post-merge, the pattern probably just keeps on going. What we end up with, then, is an amalgam of the non-threatening Ometepe and Zapatera members duking it out for supremacy. It’s a tough call to say who comes out on top here, but I’m inclined to say the old Ometepe remain the tightest bunch. Ashley, now free from the “buddy system” probably joins with Andrea when she sees the way the wind is blowing, and drags Natalie along with her following the vote out of Boston Rob.

Who, you might ask, comes back from Redemption Island in this scenario? Despite what I said, I’m inclined to say Boston Rob. I don’t think a full immunity run was in him, but dude’s still a beast a challenges, and since all he really had to do was not be last, at least until the final duel, he probably at least makes it there. Even the final duel being endurance, I feel, is not a major obstacle for him. Recall that Rob was pretty good at the endurance challenges on “Survivor All-Stars”, and given how competitive he is, I think he could come back into the game again. That said, I think he probably leaves right afterward as well. Ashley still being in the game at this point, coupled with Rob not eating as well, means he loses immunity. Since he doesn’t have his cult-like sway over the cast at this point, they rightly vote him out at this point, leaving us with the aforementioned probable Ometepe Final 3. Who wins in this timeline? I’m going with Ashley. Andrea burned too many bridges by flipping too early, and even in this timeline, Natalie is still seen as having done nothing. Ashley, meanwhile, took advantage of the fracturous Zapateras while still remaining true to the old Ometepe, thus earning a majority of the votes, and sparing us from the obvious outcome the season built to in our timeline.

THE LEGACY: Sure enough, “Survivor Redemption Island” is probably much better received in this timeline than it is in ours. The most common criticism, and the thing that cements this season’s reputation for me, is that it was just an obvious march to the finish for Boston Rob, and we really didn’t get a chance to learn much about the new players. Here, we get to see the new players demolish old favorites, and while that can be hard to watch sometimes, it does build a stronger overall cast, and paves the way for new legends, cementing their legacies by literally overthrowing the old guard. People in this timeline probably hotly debate whether Andrea was robbed for not having a better social game. People discuss the downfall of the Zapatera the same way they discuss the downfall of Galu, but with better characters. And while I doubt Ashley is a breakout character, she’s well received, and acknowledged as having played a subtle, but sound, game. Think Danni Boatwright of “Survivor Guatemala”.

That said, despite the season being better received, we probably get less overall returnees from the season. While the public as a whole loves the season a lot more, it’s still not probably seen as “top-tier ‘Survivor’” but rather as “Pretty Good ‘Survivor’”. Couple this with Probst’s best friend not winning and I think production is much less warm towards this season. Andrea and Francesca probably come back for “Survivor Caramoan” (the former due to actually good gameplay, the latter due to production REALLY needing a woman of color on the season), but Phillip? Yeah, at best he’s a one-season wonder. We may get a former Zapateran back for “Survivor Cambodia”, but overall, they’re not showing up as much as we think of them as doing. On the flip side, Boston Rob probably gets a fifth chance, because dammit, Probst just can’t stand that he hasn’t won! My guess is we probably see him on “Survivor Game Changers”, where he probably loses yet again.

What really intrigues me, though, is how Redemption Island is received as a twist as a result of this change to the season. Bear in mind, while the “Redemption Island” twist, was never beloved, it was not the main criticism of the season. Rob’s win was. True, I doubt this twist gains love from the fans, but now rather than be a mark of one of the most hated seasons of “Survivor”, it’s not associated with seasons that are considered, at worst, “ok”. Given that the producers refuse to get rid of a twist they like even when the audience practically BEGS them *cough*final-four-fire-making*cough*, you can bet this means Redemption Island sticks around much longer in this timeline. Rather than go away during “Survivor One World”, it’s probably a feature of that season and future seasons as well, thus changing the outcome of all seasons it affects. I think it would have taken someone losing due to Redemption Island who production REALLY wanted to see win for them to put the kibosh on it. Thus, I’d say “Survivor Caramoan” is probably when there’s a real push from production to put the kibosh on it.

Yes, the continued existence of “Redemption Island” as a twist eliminates Cochran’s win on that season, and not just because someone better at challenges than him comes back either. Look, Cochran was WAY better in challenges his second time around, but he was no master, and Redemption Island favoring the strong doesn’t help matters for him. But what really kills Cochran’s chances is an effect we didn’t really see in our timeline: An increased gutsiness in “Survivor” play. We missed out on this due to Redemption Island being so short-lived as a twist, but if it became a regular thing, people would have started to figure out that there was less risk to making a gutsy move. After all, even if it failed, you could still come back in the game anyway. With less risk available, people take on the power players more often, and given how vulnerable Cochran’s alliance was in multiple parts of “Survivor Caramoan”, this probably means one of them succeeds. And this is a problem for the show. Love Cochran or hate Cochran, he was far and away the biggest character of the season. With “Redemption Island” still in play as a twist, at best we get a Brenda win, and at worst, something like a Reynold or Eddie win. This, in turn, infuriates the producers, and spells the end for “Redemption Island”. It probably still sticks around for “Survivor Blood vs. Water”, but like in our timeline, that’s the last we see of it, and it probably isn’t even considered for “Survivor San Juan del Sur”.

In other words, we get a better season, but potentially at the cost of other good seasons, “Survivor Philippines” in particular. Would it be worth it? I leave it up for the reader to decide, but without Phillip Sheppard becoming a major character, I’m all for it regardless.

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed this little trip through time! I’ve got one more of these planned, but as always, I’m open to suggestions of changes you’d like to see! Feel free to suggest them in the comments! A quick reminder on the guidelines for submissions of changes to this blog:

One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in talking about it.
The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes Victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol for himself in that same episode, meaning the flip doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
And there you have it! I’m glad to be back at this, and look forward to presenting you all with new and interesting timelines in the future (no pun intended)!

-Matt