Idol Speculation: “Survivor David vs. Goliath” Finale: Diary of a Whiny Castaway

Yes, the title joke is blatantly stolen from Mike White. No, I’m not sorry. That joke was too good not to reuse.

Apologies in advance if this blog is a bit short by my usual standards for a finale. Although I for once took the precaution of using some personal time to come in late to work tomorrow, I still have to go, and therefore any shortening of time is good for me.

Pretense is thrown out the window post Tribal-Council. There’s idols in them thar hills, and our plucky contestants mean to find them. Everyone goes out to search in a hilariously edited montage that does a good job of misdirecting us, having the music swell multiple times when different people are looking in trees. Ultimately, Angelina fulfills her own prophecy of the season by finding an idol, or at least a clue to one. Taking a leaf out of the “Survivor Kaoh Rong” playbook, the idol is hidden in a hard-to-reach place, and requires a tool (specifically a ladder) to get. I actually kind of like this execution better than the original, because there’s not really a way to find a substitute for a tool. True, this does limit individual ingenuity, but it also makes the inclusion of a ladder feel, well, not pointless.

Angelina, for all the flak I’ve given her (and will continue to give her), is not an idiot, and so decides that putting up a very noticeable ladder in a common area of camp MIGHT be noticed during a massive idol hunt, and so waits for a more opportune moment. Or at least she would, but she lost the clue telling her of the idol’s location, and thus she decides to act immediately. Unfortunately for Angelina, she goes a bit too far, scaling the entire cliffside trying in vain to find the idol. I’d make fun of this, but bear in mind that this is the show that once featured Dan Kay (“Survivor Gabon”), the man who somehow interpreted a clue telling him to look “Across the lake…[in] a sandy crater.” as a call for him to look IN the lake. Comparatively, Angelina hit a bullseye.

This does mean that Angelina, while doing a good job of hiding the ladder later, cannot sneak back into camp unnoticed. Now, with everyone out idol hunting, Angelina’s behavior should not seem that suspicious. She’s walking, looking for the idol, just like everyone else. But no, because it’s Angelina, it has to be convoluted as hell. She feigns a back injury, even going to far as to have Dr. Alison take a look at it. I can’t deny that it’s a good bit of deception, but it seems pointless for something that could really hit home to a lot of people. Remember, this season’s first boot was a medical leave due to back injury. Maybe not something you want to play on the sympathies of, particularly this season.

Our first immunity challenge is your standard obstacle course/puzzle combo that bears little mention, though I must say I find the puzzle odd. Not difficult, mind you, but odd. It’s basically a square jigsaw puzzle, but the usual strategy of working from the edge in is actually the OPPOSITE of the easy way to do things here. With everything cut at nice right angles, there’s no way to tell what is and isn’t an edge piece, except by color, but at that point you’re better off building the logo portion and working from there.

Also, I notice that we now have taken steps to prevent what happened last season on this sort of challenge, where Probst makes it clear that you must step away and declare that you have finished to win. I hereby dub this the “Wendell Holland Contingency”.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, this challenge comes down to the puzzle, and Nick pulls out a win. In addition, he gets spaghetti dinner for himself, and ultimately two others. His first pick is Angelina, which is understandable. After all, she’s a potential ally of his, and she did just hurt her back. Though if I were Nick, I would emphasize this point more. Maybe it’s just me, but it would seem REALLY suspicious if someone claimed to hurt their back, but didn’t want medical to at least take a look. I’d be emphasizing to Probst “Yeah man, I really feel bad for Angelina. I mean, she hurt her back and all. Came back to camp moaning and groaning. Sure hope nothing’s seriously wrong with it.”, in the hope that a medical evacuation might get me one step closer to that prize. Nick’s second choice is Mike, which I can understand. After taking Angelina, there’s not really a “right” or “wrong” choice here. What there is is bad justification, which is what Nick has. At this point, he’s clearly taking his old Jabeni tribemates, and fair enough. But you want to HIDE that fact, so that no one cottons on, and tries to break up your alliance. Instead, Nick flat out states that this is what he’s doing.

Fortunately, he might have an idol to back him up. To further torment Angelina, the spaghetti feast is held by the water well, where the aforementioned cliff is. Talk turns to whether Alison (the current target for the night, more on that later) has an idol. Mike speculates that she does not, but turns to Angelina for her opinion. All Angelina has to do here is say “No.” Very simple, but effective, lie that keeps her secrets to herself, but also keeps her alliance in power. Instead, Angelina breaks down, and enlists their help in getting the idol, which she eventually claims. I can’t fault her too much here, since these are her close allies, and having more information does prevent people panicking and messing up plans accordingly. That said, I feel like had Angelina played this a little better, she might have had her proverbial cake and eaten it as well. Having a confident alliance AND an idol no one knows about.

On the subject of cake, I must dispute this being a “reward”. Food is good and all, but you gave them RED VELVET CAKE? Shame on you, “Survivor”.

Moving onto the target for the night, in a gorgeous transition between groups (our diners say “cheers” with wine, and then we cut to the same shot with cups of rice with our losers), we see that, indeed, Nick’s Jabeni comment was not unnoticed. All agree that something needs to be done about that group and… do absolutely nothing. Davie’s hitched his horse to Nick, and that’s that. Dammit, Davie, if you weren’t so charming, I would have a real issue with you right now!

So, our diners get to decide the target tonight. Alison’s name is brought up (to no one’s surprise, since it’s basically tradition at this point), but it’s not who you think it would be. Angelina is the most gung-ho about getting her out, along with Nick. Now Nick, it makes sense why he’d want Alison out. Davie is the only other really viable target, and keeping Davie around is good for Nick. It’s someone who’s arguably more of a jury threat than he is, gives him another ally to work with, and in general keeps Nick in control. For Angelina, though, what’s the benefit? Davie’s probably not going to work with her, and while Alison’s a threat, so is Davie. Alison could probably sway a jury very well, but there are counter arguments to her game. In regards to Davie? To steal another quote, this time from Teresa Cooper (“Survivor Africa”) “What can you say that’s bad about Davie? Nothing!” Only Mike is the lone voice of dissent, quickly becoming our outlet of good strategy now that he’s off the “Goliath Strong” train. He makes all the points that I’ve just made, thereby making him the smartest person left in the game.

But how to make his pitch? Nick’s clearly never going to go for it, and while it would be in Angelina’s best interest to eliminate Davie, she’s dead-set on Alison leaving the game. Mike rightly points out that for his persuasion to work, he’ll have to make Angelina think it was her idea. Naturally, when he pitches the plot to her, he instead frames it purely strategically, and does nothing to convince her to come up with the idea herself. Again, BRILLIANT idea from Mike. Now if only we could see it actually be done.

For all my complaining, there is actually decent mystery going into this Tribal Council. True, the smart thing has usually been done in terms of vote-offs this season, and if I were a gambling man, I’d go for Davie going home, but I could also see scenarios where Alison is the target. Still, the smart thing continues to happen, and Davie is evicted. You can bet that I’m sorry to see him go. Davie may not have been the biggest character this season, but that’s more of a testament to how many big characters there were this season than to Davie himself. The dude exudes charm from his every orifice, and it’s a shame that he had to go. It also means we’ve lost our last arguably universally liked potential winner this season, but more on that later.

Oh, and as he leaves, Davie states that the one orchestrating his elimination will get his vote. Bur sure, show, keep telling us that the new Final Tribal Council format changes minds. Clearly these people are coming in with NO preconceived notions of who they want to win whatsoever.

There are good ways to handle being blindsided, and there are bad ways to handle being blindsided. Nick somehow manages to find a worse way. Ok, ok, I exaggerate somewhat, but the dude really does not acquire himself here. His assessment of the situation is spot-on: Mike insisted on getting his way, leaving Nick proverbially out in the cold. Nick has every right to be upset. However, by whining about it for all to hear, you lose shots at potential allies and any chance you might have of getting by without immunity. When people are rolling their eyes at your loss, there’s little helping you.

Our second immunity challenge has contestants stand atop a tall pole. there, they must haul up leaky buckets of water to use to fill a bamboo chute, raising a key. This key unlocks a block puzzle, with the first person to solve that puzzle winning immunity. Yes, this is a reused challenge. No, I don’t care. Why? Because this is the same challenge that Kass McQuillen had that amazing comeback on during “Survivor Cagayan”, and anything that reminds me of that is a thumbs-up in my book.

With Nick winning immunity, Alison is firmly on the chopping block at this point. Even Mike has little reason to keep her. This should satisfy Angelina’s vendetta, right? No, she wants more. Well, she does have that idol that she found, and tonight’s the last night she can play it. No, she wants more. Not content with a mere idol play, Angelina wants a CORRECT idol play. Thus, she concocts a convoluted plan where Mike gets Kara and Alison to pile their votes on Angelina so that Angelina can then negate those votes. Now, for all my snark, this is a good plan for Angelina. It makes her look even better in front of the jury, and at this point, she needs every advantage she can get. The flaw here is that there’s no incentive for MIKE to execute this plan. Why, at this juncture, would someone do something that makes someone ELSE look better, and gains them no visible benefit? Unless they were an idiot, they wouldn’t and Mike is not an idiot. He spills the plan to Kara, who in turn spills it to Alison. This show of trust and good faith leads Kara to target Mike. Wait, what?

Ok, ok, with Nick and Angelina immune, Mike is the only other viable target for Kara and Alison as a pair, but really? Mike just displayed about as complete a trust in you as could be imagined, and you reward him with betrayal? Typical “Survivor”, but still weird nonetheless.

Yeah, if it wasn’t already clear, this misdirection does not live up to its predecessor. Nick may have a vendetta to fill, but he also wouldn’t sabotage his game this way. There’s no way Alison doesn’t go home, so instead, let’s take a moment to acknowledge Mike’s big blunder for the night. He foolishly decides to take a leaf out of Spencer Bledsoe’s playbook, circa “Survivor Cambodia”, and berate a contestant for little reason shortly before Final Tribal Council. In this case, Angelina, the obvious target, makes a token effort at switching the target, noting how Mike is a “threat”. She doesn’t even put any emotion behind it, instead just going for a calm, logical argument. This leads to Mike going off on her, stating that she’s lost her dignity, and in general makes her out to be scum of the earth for not just rolling over and dying. Need I say more about the wrongness of Mike here. In general I like you, man, but a loss of respect points!

Alison leaves, and while I do personally like her on the show, I can’t be too sorry to see her go. She was a decent enough strategist, but wasn’t a stand-out character, and so there’s not too great a loss. Personally, though? Miss her a great deal.

Also, fun fact: With Alison’s departure, this marks the first time since the inception of the “Two tribe to three tribe swap” that a member of the newly created tribe has not made the Final Tribal Council.

Our final immunity challenge is “Simmotion”. Because, you know, THAT wasn’t an underwhelming final challenge in past seasons!

With Nick’s victory in this challenge, his winning of the season is now all but assured, but sure, let’s put up the pretense of some actual debate here. Everyone comes to Nick to state their case in admittedly a pretty funny scene, what with people saying things that contradict each other. Nick then throws out the pretense of debate by stating what we all knew to be true: that Angelina will never win, so he’s taking her, and letting Mike and Kara duke it out. I admire the bluntness, but I think this move could have been pulled off better with a bit more subtlety. If I’m Nick, I really want Kara to win this final challenge, both because Mike is the biggest threat to my winning the game, and because of my vendetta. To do so, I need Mike not to practice fire-making. Hence, I tell Kara that she’s going to fire making in private, I tell Angelina that she’s safe but ask her to practice making fire to keep up pretenses, and I spin Mike a tale about how I’m taking him to the finals. Why would Mike buy this? Recall that Mike is a superfan, and thus knows all about the show, in particular the last couple seasons. If you recall, the winner of that fire-making challenge won both times, in part due to that last chance to boast before Final Tribal Council. Tell Mike that you don’t want him to have that advantage, and thus won’t risk him winning that challenge. A bit weak, admittedly, but it has a logic I could see Mike buying.

Mike is nervous before the challenge, while Kara is confident. Naturally, this means Mike wins. As if that wasn’t enough, evidently the “Orange Curse” from “Survivor Ghost Island” carried over to this season, as Kara was at the unlucky orange station this time around, and lost. As to her exit, I’m not really sorry to see Kara go. There’s nothing offensive about her, but on “Survivor”, she was kind of a nice, quiet non-entity, and thus no real loss for the show.

One upside to the new Final Tribal Council format: I don’t have to spend time dissecting each individual jury question, and can just talk about those points that stand out to me. This season has two. One is Gabby giving Angelina credit that part of the negative perception of her might be due to her being a woman. And yeah, this is a fair point. We expect genders to conform to certain types of gameplay, and when they don’t, we get offended. I can see this happening in general, and in particular, I can see it in Angelina’s case. However, I still have to criticize her game. Trumpeting one’s own accomplishments is not something to scoff at, and arguably necessary for winning the game. It is not Angelina’s actions that make her bad at “Survivor”. Now, it’s her execution of those actions that make her bad at “Survivor”. You want to bring up your accomplishments, but NATURALLY. Work them subtly into the conversation, almost let people remind themselves of it. By shoehorning yourself in everywhere, and reminding people of your “altruistic” acts, you come off as forced, desperate, and as Davie pointed out, disingenuous. So yes, Angelina may be unfairly piled upon because of her gender. That does not excuse other parts of her poor gameplay.

The other thing to mention about this Final Tribal Council? Well, while some are more talkative than others, most everybody gets in one or two points, and seems like a contributor. Save for Carl, who just waits until the end, and caps things off with a zinger. I cannot think of a more appropriate way to end Final Tribal Council for this season.

While Nick is the clear frontrunner, with Mike still in the mix, there is at least a bit of mystery. True, Mike did kind of shoot himself in the foot on the Alison boot, but he’s still charming, and has some friends on the jury. Adding onto this, the editors pull a few tricks to make it look as though Mike might actually win. He’s saved for last in the pre-Final Tribal Council summary (a spot usually reserved for the winner), he gets many nice “growth” confessionals for himself, and when the votes are read, Nick first gets one, then Mike gets three, implying a blowout. Clever move, editors. They’re getting better. You’ve got to admit it. They are getting better.

Nick’s win, in a way, actually explains a lot about this season, and how it was marketed. Much like “Survivor Kaoh Rong” before it, this season was not hyped much before it aired, yet as the season progressed, it turned out to be so good, people began to question what was happening. So, like with “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it was speculated that the ending was so bad that it brought down the season. And while this season’s outcome is nowhere near as unsatisfying as that of “Survivor Kaoh Rong” (though, to avoid starting a flame war again, that season’s problems were largely the fault of the EDITORS, nor Michele, Aubry, or the jury), it’s still not what we would want to see. It’s weird to say this about a season with a generally likable cast, and no major antagonists, but the villain kind of won in this case. I don’t see any real hate for anyone in the case (which is one of the things that makes this season so great), but think about our finalists. Did you really want any of them to win? Probably not. You wouldn’t be unhappy at their winning, but you’re not jumping out of your seat with excitement either. Don’t get me wrong, Nick EARNED his victory, playing from the bottom and still managing to come out on top. But Nick is kind of a modern-day Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”). From a strategic perspective, he was fine, and did nothing that was particularly offensive. But did you really WANT to see him win. Their annoying personality traits differ (Hatch was more arrogant, while Nick more whiny, though both had those aspects to their personalities as well), but the outcome is the same: A winner who’s not scum of the earth, but who you can’t fully get behind either. It leads to an underwhelming outcome, is what I’m saying.

Speaking of underwhelming, let’s talk reunion show! Actually, despite my snark, this is the best the reunion show’s been in quite a while! True, it’s still too short, and I’m mad some people didn’t get questions, but you know what? We had questions we ACTUALLY wanted to hear about, and talked to a variety of people, not just our finalists. Hell, even the segments mid-show kind of worked. Davie was charming, and if you’re going to get strategy input from a past contestant, Zeke Smith (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X.” is a good choice. He’s smart, but not overused, and leads to a good bit about how he and his boyfriend met. If you’re going to interrupt show time with this, then this is the way to interrupt it. I’m sure some people want me to talk about the preview for next season, but I’m going to save that for the end, after I give my overall thoughts on the current season. It will be clear then why.

For now, let’s dissect how accurate my preseason predictions were. Yes, I know there’s normally a “Top 5 and Bottom 5” here, but, though it pains me to say so, I think I have to stop trying to do those segments at the beginning and end of a season. I’ll do it if somethings stands out, and I’ll still try and do at least one list a season, but the sad fact is, I’m running out of topics that aren’t an overly-narrow superlative. If I’m going to keep this up, I need to pace myself, and that means fewer a season. Plus, this keeps the blog shorter, which as mentioned before, is somewhat high on my list of priorities with my job. Now, onto my inaccurate predictions.

BI-Wrong. Just straight-up wrong. Man, what a depressing way to start out this recap.
CARL-He made it slightly farther than I thought, but given how I nailed his personality, I’ll say I was right on this one overall.

CHRISTIAN-Again, pretty much dead right, both in personality and time in the game.

DAVIE-He didn’t win, but he came close, and was charming. Another correct call. Huh. Maybe I undersold myself.

ELIZABETH-Not the worst call I’ve ever made, but I was wrong nonetheless. I definitely underestimated her.

GABBY-Wrong, thankfully, though due to the editing, I didn’t end up loving her as much as I thought I would.

JESSICA-Completely right. Enough said.

LYRSA-I guess I can technically count this as another win, since I had her time in the game pegged, but her personality and game overall were so much better than I credited that it still feels like I was wrong.

NICK-Wrong. I thought he had no shot. Turned out he did.

PAT-Wrong, though with a medical evacuation, it’s always wrong with an asterisk.

ALEC-Wrong on time in the game, though right on brains.

ALISON-She played a quieter game than I anticipated, but I was otherwise right with her.

ANGELINA-Wrong. WAY wrong. “Unmemorable” is not a word I would now use to describe Angelina.

DAN-Pretty much right, though I overestimated his intelligence.

JEREMY-I’ll admit, I forgot what I wrote about him initially. Turns out I was right on the money. Go me.

JOHN-The guy was a pleasant surprise. Much better at the game than I thought, making me wrong in his case.

KARA-Wrong on time in the game, still pretty right on personality.

MIKE-Wrong. Dude had more game than I give him credit for.

NATALIA-Wrong. Flip her and Angelina around, though, and I would have been right. Live and learn, I guess.

NATALIE-I end on the note of me being right. I can live with that.

I’ll be blunt: This season is better than it has any damn right to be. You hear about a season called “David vs. Goliath”, and you think it’s a parody. It sounds like an incredibly forced theme hiding the generic Fiji location, and giving us nothing for it. Yet, with a combination of innovative, but not forced, twists, limited focus on the theme, and one of the most likable casts we’ve had in a while, this season turned out amazing! I’m not quite as bullish on it as some people, mostly because I don’t think “Survivor Ghost Island” was that terrible (and i think some of the hype for this season is purely in comparison), but it is definitely a top-tier season for me. This is weird, because for all my compliments, nothing about this season truly stands out. With the possible exceptions of the idol nullifier vote, and Gabby’s attempted coup against Christian, there are no stand-out dramatic moments to make this season truly great. Rather, what makes it great is an overall technical competence and a return to charming basics. In that vein, I personally would compare this season favorably with “Survivor Philippines”, another season that, while it had no real stand-out moments, earned its way in by being consistently good. I would actually give this season the edge over “Survivor Philippines” in this equation, since while the dramatic moments of this season generally came from advantages, rather than players, the moments stand out nonetheless, whereas “Survivor Philippines” really has nothing in that department.

It is in that spirit that I ask the fanbase this: Give “Survivor Edge of Extinction” a chance. Yes, every rumor we hear about the season sounds horrible. Yes, it seems like a poorly conceived idea that only a moron with money and a computer would come up with. But so did “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. I admit, I’m not the most optimistic about what I’ve been hearing. If there’s a lesson to take from this season, however, it’s that even a dumb-sounding idea can work with the right group of people. So please, give the next season a chance to prove itself before dismissing it as awful automatically.

Also, OH MY GOD YOU GUYS, AUBRY’S COMING BACK! THE SEASON HAS TO BE GOOD FOR HER SAKE! SHE’S A TOP-TIER PLAYER WHO DESERVES TO BE ON A TOP-TIER SEASON!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor David vs. Goliath” Episode 12: Rules Lawyer

“Your Honor, I move that Nick’s idol play be declared null and void.”

“On what grounds?”

“Idol-playing procedures clearly state that the idol must have a designated playee before it can be considered valid. Nick has declared no such person, and therefore his idol should be discounted.”

“Objection!”

“What is your objection?”

“Your Honor, Idol-playing rules only apply to actual idols. That, however is a fake. Instead, I shall play this real idol, and designate myself.”

“Hang on, shouldn’t that have been mentioned in the discovery phase?”

“Eh, I’ll allow it. After all, this is a reality tv show, not a reality tv courtroom, let alone a real courtroom.”

Ok, ok, so I made that whole interaction more adversarial than it was. So help me, this episode gave brilliant chaos, but almost no title fodder. I made do with what little I had to work with. Now, onto the episode.

Nick, and here’s a surprise for you, is not happy at Christian’s continued presence in this game. Still, at least Nick’s acting skills are getting better, as he seems to be truly mending the fences with Christian. Privately, Nick’s still not fully on board, but is at least softening a little bit.

If nothing else, Nick’s able to look on the bright side of the whole situation. With Christian playing his idol, another one is presumably in play, and Nick means to get it. However, with his allies in the game now tenuous at best, and a decent number of people left in the game, Nick needs a way to look for the idol without really being discovered. The solution comes in the form of his newfound acting skills. Nick had made a fake idol, and now intends to plant it someplace, along with his previous idol’s note for authenticity. Thus, someone will quickly find it (presuming he hides it in a more obvious area than the actual idol), and thus the search will be called off. This leaves Nick free to look for the idol leisurely, with no real competition. However, this plan is derailed pretty quickly. As he goes to retrieve the fake idol from its hiding place, a small group goes with him. Undeterred, Nick simply pretends this is a real idol, and finds it anyway. Those acting skills of his must really be improving, as everyone falls for it, though again, an authentic note helps.

Or, I should say, NEARLY everyone falls for it. Providing us with more evidence that sharing knowledge of idols is not always a good idea, Davie hears the story, and is skeptical. While Davie doesn’t know about the fake idol, he is aware that Nick has a real one, and thinks he may have bluffed finding that. Thus Davie, even more so than Nick, goes idol hunting with a new fervor. Fervor only gets you so far, however, and Davie comes up empty handed. As such, he now considers the possibility that Nick wasn’t bluffing. Showing off his capacity to do basic math (that sounds like sarcasm, but given some of the contestants we’ve had on the show in recent years, that’s not a given to be able to do), Davie then realizes that this means tonight is the only night to get Nick off prior to the final four fire-making challenge, where Nick might have a slight advantage. As such, he talks with Christian about this possibility, which Christian agrees to, mostly because he’s short a number of allies at this point.

We hope you’ve enjoyed this moment with Christian. That’s pretty much all we get of him this episode.

Our reward challenge today, despite being reused, is quite awesome. Each individual will unspool as much rope as they see fit. They then make their way through a series of obstacles to a platform with sandbags on it. Assuming they have enough rope to reach, they can hurl said sandbags at a stack of blocks, knocking said blocks off of a table with the first person to do so winning a night at a Fijian resort. This would be a bog-standard challenge, were it not for the wrinkle of the rope, which makes it infinitely better. Choice always adds fun to a challenge, and when that choice comes with major risk, that always amps up the enjoyment.

The challenge itself is suitably tense, coming down to a throwing duel between Davie and Nick. Davie arrived first, but just BARELY has enough rope to reach a couple of thrown sandbags, thus making repeat attempts have fewer and thus less leeway. Plus, Nick is pretty good at throwing things. In the end, though, Davie’s lead is insurmountable, and he wins, also earning him the right to take two people along on the reward. His first immediate pick is Nick, which at first seems weird, but makes sense if you think about it. While it is true that Davie is targeting Nick at this point, Nick needs to be kept in the dark. Taking him on reward is a good bluff move in this case. Now, you might think that Davie’s second obvious choice would be Christian, since he’s ACTUALLY working with him, right? Well, again, you’d be wrong. As Davie mentioned earlier, Christian’s name is still being brought up a lot, and if Davie wants to oust Nick, he needs to keep that to a minimum. People are less likely to target Christian with him right there, so leaving him behind is a good best. I don’t see Christian as the type to cancel an alliance because of one missed reward, especially when he has so few allies left. Other than that, pretty much anything goes.

Because of this lack of obvious moves, Davie does indeed have trouble making up his mind. As such, Probst gives those remaining the option to plead their case, if they have one. Normally everyone would just keep their mouths shut, but the phrase “plead your case” is basically catnip to Angelina. She argues that she gave up her shot at immunity for rice, and that Davie won the challenge, and thus he should reward her? I can kind of see the “I gave something up, so I should get something.” argument, but I don’t see how it applies to Davie. Still, after this, I do think the smart move is for Davie to take Angelina. He has no particular ties to anyone besides Christian right now, so he offends no one, and wins brownie points with a potential future juror. He might make himself more of a target by doing so, but such is the risk of “Survivor”.

Davie takes Angelina’s argument, and files it in his “Screw You” drawer, choosing his “buddy” from Vuku, Kara. Ok, didn’t know they were particularly buddy-buddy, but sure, whatever. Angelina takes this snub well, swearing vengeance on Davie, all while desperately trying to hide how this is her being petty. Give it up, Angelina. No one is fooled, and no one is really taking you seriously.

On reward, meanwhile, Davie confirms the logic stated earlier about who to take on reward. Wanting to talk with Kara, he waits until Nick inevitably leaves to quell his excess overeating. The pair quickly agree to vote out Nick, with Kara being excited at the possibility of being in on a plan once again. She goes to get Alison on board, thus giving the “Vote Out Nick” plan a 4-persona majority. However, this plan involves leaving Mike in the dark, which Angelina isn’t too comfortable with. With Gabby gone, Mike is now her best bet. Granted, she’s still in favor of eliminating Nick, but wants him to be included. The pair discuss the plan, but no real conclusion is reached.

Davie, despite earlier giving up on the attempt, seems to get a second win and again goes idol-hunting. He eventually finds a clue in a much more inconspicuous-looking tree than usual. Like with Nick’s idol, this clue tells him he’ll have to sneak away for this idol, though this time with no time limit given. As such, Davie waits until everyone is asleep or away from camp doing other things, and steals away to where the merge feast initially was.

Or, you know, he could leave when everyone was in the shelter complaining about the rain, when everyone will be visible to everyone else, and thus an absence will be more easily noted. But what do I know?

I guess people were just to lazy to follow someone in the rain, and thus Davie finds an idol. However, there’s a twist. It seems even “Ghost Island” has a ghost, as a mini-version of the twist with Chris Noble’s idol comes into play. Davie’s idol is only good for tonight, but he can play two 50/50 shots to increase the idol’s power, in terms of number of Tribal Councils left that it can be used at. As with Ghost Island, however, he risks losing his vote if he guesses wrong. While there’s a very obvious “right” choice here, I do like the return of this twist. Just as choices can make challenges more interesting, so to can choices make idols more interesting. Point being, this is a good twist idea, and I’m glad to see it return. However, I do think it worked better at the merge with a large number of people. Here, with so few people left, Davie’s vote is super precious, and with only two extra Tribal Councils of use maximum, Davie is clearly better off just walking away and not risking it. Davie ends up agreeing with the logic, though I do hear his argument of “What if I win immunity?” A fair enough point, but playing an idol on someone you’re close to is a good move as well, and thus I see no reason for Davie not to walk away. After a “Sign from God” (which to me looked like it changed midway through, but whatever), Davie does the smart thing.

Oh look. Yet another endurance immunity challenge where the winner has absolutely no impact on the vote off. I am so invested right now.

Well, I sell the winner short here, actually. Mike takes home the victory, and apart from being an unlikely winner, immunity has now emboldened him to campaign fiercely for who he wants to vote off. And that person, who I’m amazed hasn’t come up as much before now this episode, is Christian. Mike rightly points out that Christian will win in pretty much any finals scenario, thus necessitating him being taken out. And… Yeah, I’ve nothing to add. Mike’s logic is completely, 100% correct. Everyone (save possibly Davie, as he needs allies) should be on board with this plan.

And yet, nearly everyone will reject it. Alison and Kara are still on the “Vote out Nick” train, Alison’s name is still getting thrown around because it’s tradition at this point, and Angelia’s Davie vendetta seems to be gaining more traction as she calms herself down somewhat. Mike’s frustrated, and I completely understand where he’s coming from. It’s pretty chaotic right now, but it seems like the original “Vote out Nick” plan is still the most solid, unless someone comes in to screw it up.

And here comes Davie, screwer-up of plans! Yes, even his own! Nick, evidently drunk on his own lying, comes clean to Davie about his idol find. This immediately flops Davie back to the “Nick should stay” camp, and he’s now ready to vote out alternate boot Alison. Um, why? Ok, I get that the “two idol” logic is out the window now, but Nick still kept you in the dark, and again, apart from starting tribe, you two have very little in common. Don’t really see the need to change course now. Nick is still a challenge threat, and still has a decent shot to win in the end.

Davie lets Mike in on this change of plan. Mike tries to figure out how he can leverage this into voting out Christian, because that’s basically all Mike does in every vote conversation these days. Mike brings this bit of information to Nick, somehow believe that this will make Nick want to vote Christian, when Christian’s name had nothing to do with the plan. Unsurprisingly, Nick would rather vote out the person throwing his name around, and thus Angelina’s vendetta against Davie gets even more traction.

For all my kvetch here, I actually really like this setup. While a good season overall, the misdirection has been mixed at best, with one boot usually being obvious. Granted, that obvious boot doesn’t always happen, but it feels like there’s no mystery at Tribal Council. Here, it’s all about mystery, and like the change of pace.

Speaking of Tribal Council, the topic for today is “What makes someone a threat?” There’s a lot of good philosophical talk on all sides, with pretty much every type of threat being covered. Christian and Alison in particular get in good point about being labeled threats in spite of the fact that they’ve done little to earn that title. It’s a good, healthy, adult discussion, but more importantly, doesn’t impact the mystery of who goes home, which as stated before is the main draw for the episode.

Davie plays his idol on himself because really, there’s no reason not to. This in turn makes Nick play his idol, which also makes sense, since Nick thought the boot might be Davie, with himself as a backup plan. What I don’t get is why he tries playing the fake idol first. I don’t buy that he’s “Reading the room” as he says, and so what is this? Showboating? Fair enough if so, but surely it would better to hang onto the fake idol for future bluffs. After all, most everyone thinks you have two of them, and will thus be scared to vote you out. Makes for a good fake proverbial gun, is what I’m saying.

To complete this mystery, the culprit was none other than… OLD MAN SMITHERS? No, actually Christian goes home, and I’m actually not all that sorry to see him leave. Don’t misunderstand me: Christian is a highlight of the season. He’s entertaining as hell, and a good paradoxical underdog and major threat. With that said, I feel like we got everything we could out of Christian for one season (I hold open and fully support the prospect of Christian on future seasons), and for the sake of some mystery, he needed to go. If he survived once again, I have no doubt he would have won the season. As I’ll get to in a minute, his departure leaves the playing field wide open, with a lot of possibilities for nearly everyone to win. If it took sacrificing Christian for us to get an exciting finale, I’ll gladly make that sacrifice.

While the chaos could make this episode hard to follow, here I can understand it. This episode has many good point, but like I say, the big draw here was mystery, something so far lacking from this season overall. Information was given, but no coherent, obvious choice was set down, and thus, it made for a good, unpredictable exit. If the finale can keep this up, I will be 100% sold on this season.

Some might argue that Christian’s lack of visibility, or any understanding of how the plan came together, makes him an unsatisfying boot. This is one time, however, where I’m ok with it. Christian has been SUCH a big target, for SO long, that his defeat just seemed inevitable, even if we don’t know exactly how we got here. Better instead to devote that tie to setting up new storylines, rather than playing out the same old one. Good call, for once, noting giving us much logical reasoning for the boot.

But now, it’s time to weigh out this field. Who has the best chance of winning, and who has no chance? My take below.

NICK-I thought long and hard about this once Christian left. He really was the frontrunner, so now there’s no one left I’d say would win against any challenge. Of the people left, though, I’d say Nick is the closest to earning that title. This may be a controversial call, and I can definitely see scenarios where Nick loses. He can come across as arrogant, and may have rubbed some people the wrong way with double-dealing. However, he’s at worst mildly slimy, and when we’ve had winners who are as big of jerks as Brian Heidik (“Survivor Thailand”), I don’t see Nick losing that many jury votes to mere sliminess. What makes me give Nick the top spot, though, is my read on the jury. I would have initially said that any David beats any Goliath, simply due to how the season was set up, and I’d say Nick’s starting tribe does give him an edge. More Goliaths at the merge, however, means a fair number of them on the jury, and I doubt they’re going to let a “Davids should automatically beat Goliaths” narrative fly. What I think the jury as a whole WILL look for, however, is being in charge, and of the people left, Nick has seemed the most in charge, often putting ideas in people’s heads, and doing some good showboating at Tribal Council. If he can manage not to piss too many people off, he very well could take home the million.

MIKE-Before tonight’s vote, I’d have said that Mike was at or near the bottom of this list. True, he did seem to be in charge, but of the “Goliath strong” movement, which despite still being up in numbers, seems overall to be a failure. Tonight, however, may have redeemed him. Christian has been basically the David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) of this season: The guy everyone knows will win and thus wants out, but never seems able to take out. With Christian now out, a lot of good will goes toward the person perceived as orchestrating that move. In this case, Mike does deserve the credit, and with such a good move so near the end of the game, Mike might just have clinched it here.

ALISON-I agonized over this placement, as I really consider this and the next one to be a tie. However, I give the edge to Alison because her narrative, as we’ll see is a bit clearer. Alison doesn’t have flashy moves to her name, but does seem to be well-liked. On top of this, despite Mike claiming she’s a guaranteed loss at Final Tribal Council, we’ve seen that she’s seen as a threat. If she somehow makes it to the end, she has that narrative, plus overcoming “Goliath Bias” going for her, and if she articulates herself well, she has a good shot.

DAVIE-Davie really should be a tie with Alison, but for opposite reasons. Davie does have a number of flashy moves to his name, mostly involving idol plays. Also, he’s coming from the position of the perpetual underdog, and has a lot of friends on the jury. This could be an easy win for Davie, but again, my read is that the jury will favor people in charge, and that, Davie is not. Flashy he may be, but he’s also been a loner in his moves. That makes him seem like a weak player who got lucky, which he isn’t, but again, on “Survivor”, perception is reality. Some creative arguing could still win Davie the day, and I definitely wouldn’t count him out, but he’s going to need to alter that narrative, starting now.

KARA-Kara has not played a bad game, but is simply outclassed by the field around her. She’s very likable, and has been a part of a lot of plans, but again, they never seem to fire. This hurts any perception of agency in her game, and I just don’t think likability alone will be enough to win with this jury. If Kara were up against more unlikeable people, she might have been able to pull out a victory. And hey, she has some arguments to make. Thus, I could be way off base and she’s a shoe-in to win. As it stands, though, Kara would have to pull something big to have a shot here.

ANGELINA-The one person left who I’d say has no chance to win. Don;t get me wrong, Angelina is DEFINITELY perceived as being in charge, but perhaps too much so. Her “in charge” is less “subtle influencer”, and more “Natalie Cole” what with being bossy, demanding her way, and reminding everyone of her accomplishments. If there’s a better recipe for “disliked by jury”, I’d be interested to see it. I’m sure it’s there, but right now I can’t find it.

And there you have it. Good, exciting mystery going into the finale. Let’s hope it delivers!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor David vs. Goliath” Episode 11: Perfectly Balanced

Tonight’s episode of “Survivor” is brought to you by Thanos, the Mad Titan. Admit it, you knew that if Thanos watched Earth television, he’d love “Survivor”. And no, this does not mean that half the cast is suddenly eliminated. That would be a lame twist to end all lame twists. No, I simply mean that, per the decree of Thanos, everything in this episode is perfectly balanced.

Well, the challenges kind of suck. But that’s par for the course at this point. I stand behind my balance metaphor.

Starting off this episode, we get into what will be a recurring theme tonight: “Gabby makes a smart play, but executes it poorly!” Yes, this is really Gabby’s episode in the limelight, and in some ways it shows both the best and the worst of her. Pretty much everything Gabby will do tonight, is, on paper, strategically sound, or at least has a logical basis. Yet, every time, she will execute it poorly. Not fatally poorly, but poorly. Case in point: her performance post-Tribal Council. This is the point for Gabby where she needs to start making everyone aware of her moves, so that she’s just just perceived as an emotional wreck at the end of the game who was dragged along as being easy to beat. Making everyone aware both that it was HER that spearheaded Carl’s exit, and the reasons for it, serves this purpose. Stating in a somewhat whiny voice that Carl didn’t include you does not accomplish this. In fact, it makes you seem like you play more based on emotion than logic, which is exactly the OPPOSITE of what you’re trying to achieve here.

Fortunately for Gabby, little comes of this. Primarily, she quickly corrects this tactic, calming down enough to again make the Carl/Godfather comparison, which seems to satisfy everyone. It also helps that Christian is taking a lot of heat, particularly from Nick. Understandably so, since the pair were supposed to be aligned. Nick states that he can’t trust Christian now, which is fair, though I don’t see that Nick has a whole lot of options at this point. There’s Mike, but he’s really not close with anyone else. In any case, Nick busts out his acting skills to try and throw Christian off the scent. Ehh… Don’t quit your day job, buddy.

Wasting no time, we head to our loved one’s challenge. What? Probst gave it no fanfare, so neither will I. Actually, this is a hard loved one’s challenge to comment on here, not because it’s bad or good, but because it really doesn’t give us much. Don’t get me wrong, it’s touching and heartwarming, but there’s no particularly over-the-top sob stories, and there’s no cringe-worthy moments. It’s just nice, loving people seeing each other after a month away in harsh conditions. Nice to see, terrible to write about.

Really, only two things jump out at me here, and both are things that are positive because of their absence. One is Nick’s reunion, which comes the closest to being over-the-top. Nick talks about how he really started to bond with his father, realizing the sacrifices the latter had made just to keep the family fed. It’s s nice scene that toes the line from overstaying its welcome to make it ok. What stands out to me, though, is that this would be the PERFECT moment for Probst to pull out a “David vs. Goliath” comparison, and yet he doesn’t. This shows good restraint, and prevents and already forced theme from becoming further strained. My compliments. The second is simple: I’m amazed that Mike got his son out there. Not that there’s anything wrong with his son, but what with the whole “The Amazing Race” connection, I thought for sure Mike would be forced to have his Dad, Mel, out there.

As mentioned before, our challenges such, though this is the better of the two. Pairs race through a water crawl-through, then dig up keys in a sand pit. Said keys unlock balls, which must be put atop an arch (one ball by each member) to win a barbecue feast with said loved one. It’s a combo challenge that just feels too small for the stakes, though I will say that pairs for the loved ones challenge feels like the right number of people, if you’re not going to do individuals competing. Three is just a touch too much for me.

I can only assume that pairs were randomly assigned, else why would Gabby and Christian be on a team together in a challenge with no puzzle? I give the edge to the pair of Nick and Angelina, and they do win, although they do a good job of fooling you. Angelina REALLY struggles on the initial portion, but the pair make up enough time on the others to still pull out a victory. They’re given a choice of two people (not necessarily from the same pair, but they do so anyway) to take with them on reward, and I would say both choices are strategically sound. They first choose Mike, and as the swing vote, he makes sense. Angelina and Nick are both on the outs after the last vote, and so need to start working those on the fringes of the majority alliance, and no one fits that description better than Mike. Their second choice, Davie, also makes sense, since Davie was the third person outside the majority. Plus, as Davie and Mike were the next-closest pair to winning, they can always hide behind that as an excuse.

On reward, after getting the pleasantries of seeing family out of the way, talk quickly turns to strategy, with Nick and Angelina in particular advocating for this foursome to be the final four. Mike agrees, stating in confessional that he’s up for anything. Evidently Mike is adopting the Sandra Diaz-Twine (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) strategy of saying “yes” to pretty much everything, which is not a bad strategy for him. Davie, however, remains skeptical for reasons that I still can’t figure out. Admittedly, Davie has the fewest connections out of that foursome, and would probably be targeted at that point, but it’s still better than being on the outs, which is where he currently is. Still, if there’s a secondary theme to tonight, it’s “Davie states that the plan that benefits him at least slightly, it’s no good.”

Strategizing is not alien to the losers either. You see, Christian had his girlfriend come for the loved ones visit, and comforted her much the same way he’s comforted Gabby throughout this game. This does not go unnoticed by Gabby, who decides that she needs to now go against Christian. Her reasoning is that if she doesn’t separate herself from Christian strategically, she won’t have a case to make at the end. This is perfectly sound reasoning. With how emotional Gabby has been, even votes where she clearly had input, Christian comes off as the mastermind, simply because his affect is more measured and logical. Thus, he gets credit for moves that Gabby helped make. Voting out Christian not only gives Gabby a counter-argument to this, but retroactively gives her more credit for their previous moves. No, I cannot find fault with Gabby’s desire to eliminate Christian. What I CAN find fault with is her timing. You see, Gabby needs more time, both to solidify herself with her allies and to lull Christian into a false sense of security. Right now, all she has firmly on her side are Alison and Kara. Going down 4-3, assuming the vote goes her way, is not strategically sound. Better to let things ride for a vote (Christian does target Alison for this vote, which could be problematic, though I think he could have been swayed towards Angelina or Nick or someone), build more bonds with Mike, then eliminate Christian at the final seven. Now, Gabby does make the argument that with Christian’s idol, you need to move on him before the obvious time. This is a sound argument, though I would counter that saving Christian until the next vote makes him less likely to use that idol. It can be used up through the final five, and he’ll want to save it as long as possible. He says as much tonight. By letting the vote go smoothly for one more round, Christian gets lulled into a false sense of security, and thus doesn’t feel as inclined to play his idol. Still, it cannot be denied that there is some logic to what Gabby is proposing here.

Speaking of proposals, Gabby starts floating her plan to Alison and Kara. Again, good people to start with, but in my opinion, Gabby gives a poor pitch here. She focusses on how getting Christian out will be good for HER game, and is very articulate on the matter. The trouble is that this gives no incentive for anyone ELSE to go along with the plan, as no evidence is given for how it would benefit THEIR game. Thankfully, Alison and Kara are both smart enough to realize the benefits of eliminating Christian on their own, and so don’t need persuading in this area, but still, close call.

Whereas the reward challenge was underdesigned, the immunity challenge is overdesigned. Hailing from “Survivor Africa” originally, the challenge where you hold up a bucket of water and stand for as long as you can needs no introduction. It also needs no improvement, as there is beauty in its simplicity. So, I ask, why add a stupid pole and ball mechanism to an already perfect challenge!

After whittling out the non-competitors, we end up with Davie, a person on the outs at the last vote, Christian, the likely target tonight, and Kara, who seems to be in no danger. Guess who wins?

As we leave, Alison gives us the commentary on Christian’s eviction. Recognizing that this means Christian will stay, she tries to negate it by hedging her bets on the outcome in confessional. Not a bad way to try and trick the “Survivor” Gods, but as we shall see, it comes to nothing.

Now it falls to Gabby to rally the troops to vote out Christian. Naturally, with a vote this tenuous, and a potential idol in the offing, she keeps it among as few people as possible, probably going to Mike since he’s been the swing vote. Or, you know, she could march right up to Nick and Davie and discuss the plan openly. That works too. Again, not a bad IDEA on Gabby’s part, as she does need more votes, but these are people you just blindsided. Probably not the best idea to be trusting the willy-nilly. Nick, of course, is all on board with any plan that involves eliminating Christian, and even gets Mike and Angelina in on the idea. Sensing a split-vote, and being aware of Christian’s idol, the pair take a page from the playbook of Rupert Boneham and Colby Donaldson, circa “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” and decide to throw some votes on Gabby given the split nature of the vote, just in case Christian plays his idol. The one name not mentioned here is Davie, who of all of these people should be the MOST on board with Christian going home. He and Christian have never been particularly aligned, and voting him out keeps his options open. But no, Davie is worried about being seen as a threat, and thus wants Christian to say. Not the most illogical conclusion, but Davie, you’re doing such a good job of playing the everyman that I can’t see anyone targeting you anytime soon.

Christian, naturally, is skeptical of the guy he didn’t vote with last time saying that his closest ally is trying to vote him out. However, Christian is also not one to take chances. He could play his idol, but REALLY wants to save it, and so decides that making nice with Nick is his best play. Not a bad idea in theory, but Christian underestimates just how thoroughly Nick is pissed at him. Better to stick with the idol plan. Nick’s acting has improved since immediately after the past Tribal Council. Perhaps he found acting classes on the island? Even so, he’s no master, and Christian remains skeptical. He states that he’ll judge at Tribal Council, meaning it’s time once again to judge people’s acting abilities.

First up at Tribal Council is Nick, so you know this isn’t going to go well. Indeed, Nick has a hard time concealing his frustration. After getting Christian’s side of the story, he does say that they’ve made up, but it feels half-hearted. Faring little better is Gabby, who makes statements about playing her own game, and doesn’t even cry once, throwing up Christian’s skepticism still further. Alison probably carries it off the best, talking about her nervousness, having been a target the previous episode. Still, it’s not much of a surprise when Christian does play his idol, thus eliminating Gabby.

For all my snark, I really am sorry to see Gabby go, and her being my favorite pre-season has little to do with it. She was a good example of how emotional displays to do preclude strategic gameplay, and this episode in particular really saw her shine. True, she was lacking in execution in some areas, but that just comes with practice, and her ideas and desires were solid. This time they just didn’t work out, and that happens sometimes. She may not have won, but Gabby proved why she was a player, not just a number, in this game, and she went out swinging, and if you’re not going to win, that’s the way to go. Say what you will, but she did everything in her power to influence her fate, and that, above all, is what we want to see from a great “Survivor” player. Respect, Gabby.

Idol-nullifier episode included, I say this is the top episode of the season. It was tense. It was strategic. It gave us what we needed, but didn’t overstay its welcome. A carefully-crafted, flawlessly executed slice of the game we call “Survivor”. Perfectly balanced. As all things should be. What more could you ask for?

Well, we could ask for good challenges. Maybe next episode will provide.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.