Back when “Survivor” first started, it seemed like they’d hit the magic numbers with all the show’s logistics. 16 castaways voted out in 3 day increments over a 39 day period fit nicely into 13 episodes (with the last episode cramming in an extra vote or two, of course). Unfortunately, as the show progressed, “Survivor” found that more people were quitting and/or getting medevaced, and so they needed to up the number of contestants so they would effectively have a few “spares”. The trouble was when nobody quit or got injured, you messed up the magic number. The solution was the double Tribal Council, a fairly innovative concept in which the immunity challenge was removed for an episode, and both tribes went to Tribal Council (or, in the case of a post-merge double Tribal Council, two people booted in rapid succession, with no reward challenge in between.), which produced some new ideas and a fair bit of drama. Then the number had to be upped again to 20 contestants, and having more double Tribal Councils seemed extreme. The solution then was to have a final 3 instead of a final 2. To say this was a bad idea is an understatement, but I’ve gone over time and again why I think the final 3 is a bad idea, so I’ll save you that rant. Now, however, “Survivor” has a NEW solution for us, namely that it combines two whole episodes into one slot, giving us a two hour extravaganza that really benefits the show in no way, save for sparring us some obvious boots. Frankly, I’d have split this into two separate episodes, and just premiered the show a week earlier, but perhaps that’s why I don’t get paid the big bucks. My point in all this is that a double-length episode is a bad idea, if for no other reason than it gives me a lot to cover. My recap and analysis may not be as detailed as previously seen on this blog, but fortunately not a lot happens in this episode, so I’m not too up the creek without a paddle.
Not too surprisingly, we start off this episode by Reed being mad at Keith for spoiling the Jon blindside from last episode. Reed does an excellent job explaining how stupid Keith’s move was, but there’s an even better demonstration. Just how stupid WAS Keith’s move? So stupid that ALEC of all people comments on what a stupid move it was. You know you’re stupid when…
But it’s not only Keith who can get in on the stupid move train. Right off the bat, we get the seeds of the foreshadowed Jaclyn and Jon conflict with their post-Tribal discussion. Jaclyn makes an offhanded comment thanking Natalie for telling Jon to play his idol, basically giving Natalie the (rightful) credit for Jon’s butt still being in the game. Once Natalie has left their presence, Jon gets on Jaclyn’s case, telling her that it needs to be HIS move so he looks good in front of the jury. Jaclyn, not too surprisingly, is a bit upset at this, since she ALSO claims to be involved in telling Jon to use his idol. Frankly, I didn’t see her do jack squat on that front, so I’m not fully convinced, but I do understand Jaclyn’s outrage from a different perspective. Jon basically talks as though he’s the only one of the pair who needs to be framed in a good light, essentially doing what Wes, Keith, and Alec did to Jaclyn to get them to flip with Jeremy’s alliance so many episodes ago. Admittedly, Jon does have the better chance of winning of the pair, but there’s no need to frame it so bluntly, and certainly no need to order your ally around like that. This outrage causes Jaclyn to suggest that maybe now SHE’LL play for the final three, and I hang my head in shame that we’re back to seasons where everybody doesn’t play to win from the beginning. I’ve given Jaclyn bits of credit here and there, but this is just pathetic, and much though I sympathize with her current dislike of Jon, her only NOW starting to really play just leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
It does bring up a crazy idea that’s been bandied about since the start of the “Blood vs. Water” twist, however, one that I think may have been in play, and we just didn’t see it at all. Despite playing with family, “Survivor” is still an individual game, and thus only one of a pair effectively wins (it’s assumed loved ones will share prize money to a degree, but not in a game-colluding way). However, the problem with going to the end with a loved one is that while it maximizes the pair’s chances of being voted for, it can easily backfire. The assumption is that pairs generally play similar games to one another, and so a person likely to vote for one is just as likely to vote for another. I’m not 100% convinced that would happen, because of how relationship-building in the game works, but it’s a possibility to consider, and a lot of people act under that assumption. But getting back on track, it’s been theorized, as a result, that the smartest thing would be for two couples to go to the end, and then have one couple sacrifice it’s other half to prevent a tie vote. This leaves the other half of the couple able to exploit the splitting of the votes between the other couple, and take the win for themselves, not to mention putting a valuable advocate on the jury. With Jaclyn’s comments, I can’t help but wonder if Jon and Jaclyn had something like this in mind, presumably paired up with Missy and Baylor. Maybe I’m reading too much into things and it’s just fanfiction, but it’s a possibility worth considering.
But of course, we can’t have semi-strategic talk this season, so let’s head over to the reward challenge! Oh, wait, this reward challenge actually has strategy to it! RUN AWAY!
In all serious, this is one of my more favorite challenges to reuse, and not just because it’s the first reward challenge that’s actually individual this season. Though that is a bonus. Basically, everyone answers a series of questions. If they get a question right, they get to chop the rope of another person’s effigy. Once three ropes are cut, the effigy is smashed, and that person is out of the game. Last person left standing wins reward, in this case a horseback ride to barbeque. Very nice. As an added bonus, rather than the traditional questions asked, where the answers are the most popular option from what amounts to a slam book made by the contestants, it’s the return of the “How Well Do You Know Each Other” challenge that “Survivor” used to be known for, last seen, believe it or not, on “Survivor Marquesas”. Man, that’s old-school. The overarching mechanic itself was last seen in “Survivor One World”, and I have missed it. Apart from the effigy smashing being fun (admitted, the skulls this season border on generic, but the blood-like paint inside is a nice touch), I like that this challenge reveals the pecking order so blatantly, and it’s fun to see who is out for whom. It also gives very useful insight to those on the outside and the bottom of the alliance, though admittedly it’s more insightful if it’s done much EARLIER! Still, I’m happy to see this challenge back.
One person who I’m sure ISN’T happy to see it, though, is Jeff Probst. Probst has made his disdain for this challenge well known in the past, and it’s why the challenge is so rare these days. Probst considers the winner of the challenge a foregone conclusion, due to colluding amongst the contestants, and thus finds it boring. I can understand his frustration, but at the same time, it can provide fascinating insight, as I mentioned above, and is still beneficial to those on the bottom, leading to more unpredictable seasons. I, for one, want more of that.
Probst’s dislike of this challenge comes to a head, however, when this season’s group breaks tradition. As I said, there’s often colluding on this particular challenge, but as a formality, it’s usually done before getting to the challenge. This group, however, forgets to, and so once Reed, Alec, and Keith are predictably eliminated, they discuss who they want to win. This so infuriates Probst (man, I am using the word “infuriate” a lot this evening) that he loses his professional cool, yells at the contestants to stop the challenge, and just declares Missy the winner, thus meaning we miss out on interesting inter-alliance dynamics. Shame, Probst, shame. For a man who’s normally very collected and professional, he really dropped the ball on this one.
Thankfully, we still get some dynamics in play here, that they TRY to convince us will affect the rest of the episode. Missy has to send someone to Exile Island, and pick 2 people to join her on reward. Jon volunteers for Exile Island, and he gets sent, a no-brainer. He’s strong, so he should be weakened, and there’s probably a new idol out there, which you want to keep in your alliance. As for those to go with her, Missy first picks Baylor and then Natalie, which are both good choices. Some would argue that Missy should have taken Jaclyn rather than Baylor, as Baylor is Missy’s most loyal ally, and so doesn’t need that bond reaffirmed via reward. This is true, but I don’t think it hurts Missy to take Baylor. As they’re mother and daughter, everyone assumes emotion will override gameplay, so Missy will take Baylor, and no one will begrudge her that. Besides, Missy would look like kind of an ass if she denied her own daughter reward. Natalie is also a good call, as, like we’ve seen, Jaclyn rarely makes a move without Jon, whereas Natalie is technically a free agent, and more likely to flip if you don’t keep her happy. Better to take her on reward.
Reed is still trying to have a place in this game, though, and so can’t let this move go untalked about. Jaclyn admits that she’s a bit upset at not getting to go on the reward, so Reed jumps on it and says Missy, Baylor, and Natalie are the final 3. This makes Baylor give a retort, which Reed, presumably fed up, calls Baylor a brat. This incites the wrath of Missy, who tells Reed not to call her daughter a brat. Um, oh no? Forgive me for being underwhelmed, Missy, but “brat” is not too much of an insult, and in this instance, Baylor was in a sense rubbing her superiority in Reed’s face, so I’d say it’s kind of deserved. I know it’s not a nice thing to hear about you kid, but seriously, it could be worse.
Probst sends everybody off before things get worse, and we see that sure enough, Natalie wants this as a final 3. She claims she has a good shot at beating Missy and Baylor, which I would say is correct, though I’m proud of her for admitting that her perspective is biased and she could be dead wrong. Missy has made a few moves in this game, but isn’t very well-liked by the jury. Baylor, in contrast, is better-liked, but hasn’t done much, and there’s some guilt by association. Natalie could very well beat either of them. To cement the alliance, Natalie and Baylor tell Missy about the idol they found. Normally, I’d be mad at this, but there is logic to it if you want to cement a final 3 alliance, particularly since Missy has been so much on the Jon train thus far. Actually, my one complaint is that Missy only credits Baylor with finding the idol. I know she didn’t see it, and so has no way of knowing who found it, and it’s natural for parents to be biased towards their kids, but if anything, Natalie exclusively found the idol.
The tree then realize that Jaclyn is probably getting sweet-talked by Reed, Alec, and Keith, and so they’ll need to do damage control later. Sure enough, back at the camp, Jaclyn admits that she’s pissed, and so is more amenable to the arguments of the other side, particularly since they target Missy, arguably the other strategic mastermind of Jon’s alliance. I… don’t buy this at all. Jaclyn’s just putting too many qualifiers on it about how her emotions are, and I don’t think she’s independent enough at this point to really go without Jon. Missy getting voted out is not happening this vote. Still, she gets a new flirt-buddy in Alec, who despite protestations that he’s not here to flirt or date with anyone, talks a lot about dating and flirting with Jaclyn. Yeah, I don’t care how casual the new generation thinks some of this behavior is, to me, the way they were talking, was flirting. If I was Jon, I’d be a bit suspicious, particularly in this game.
Speaking of Jon, since the clue to the idol is once again so simple a five year old could solve it, Jon gets another idol. Moving on…
We head to the immunity challenge, and just to demonstrate how hard Exile Island was, Jon comes back with actual dirt lines on his face, the mere sight of which sends Mike Skupin (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) into conniptions. And speaking of Mike Skupin, the challenge today is one that he won on “Survivor Philippines”. Everybody was to roll a ball down a long paddle, and stick it in a notch at the end. The first person to stick all six balls wins. This is a reused challenge, but it’s not overdone, so I’m ok with it coming back every once in a while. As to the challenge itself, I loved it then, and I love it now. It’s difficult, but in a way that you don’t often see on “Survivor”, and it doesn’t naturally favor anyone. Add on to that an easy way to keep score and mess up with a lot of tension, and you’ve got what in my opinion is a good challenge.
Surprisingly, Keith of all people manages to pull out a victory, making him the only repeat immunity winner so far this season. I mean, I never though the guy was especially weak, but seriously, whodathunkit? Back at the camp, Jaclyn tries to fill Jon in on what happened at camp, and how they can flip the game again. Jon, however, is tired, and so rather rudely dismisses Jaclyn. This gets her pissed off at him, and so gives him the silent treatment for five hours straight. Jon tries a few times to make nice, but she’s not having it. Normally, I’d be on Jon to lay off in this scenario, but out on the island, five hours is a long time for the silent treatment between two allies, and so I actually completely understand his actions. Even worse, when Jaclyn tries to restart conversation, Jon is too pissed to talk to her, ruining any of Reed’s plans. So, maybe Jaclyn will vote without Jon! I… still don’t buy it. Yes, there is tension here, but really, this is just a couple’s spat, one that’s fairly easy to get over. People may need some time alone, but this was not nearly to the scale that was advertised, and I don’t for one second think that anyone but Reed is going home. Even when Reed tries to get Jon and Jaclyn talking again to propose his plan, and Jon winks at Reed when Natalie comes up, I don’t buy it. It would be a stupid move to flip anyway. While I admit for Jon and Jaclyn’s game, Missy probably needs to go at some point, Reed is more of a threat, and has been hanging on far too long. Much smarter to get rid of Reed.
Going into Tribal Council, there’s no doubt in my or anyone else’s mind that anyone but Reed is going home, particularly after Probst’s couple’s therapy at Tribal Council. As such, there’s no real need to discuss this Tribal Council, as it predictably ends in the death of Spider-Man. Despite my protestations, I am a bit sorry to see Reed go. By the end, he was an adequate strategist, and was one of the few people providing good strategy these past few episode. Shame he couldn’t have done so EARLIER IN THE SEASON!
Whew! Anyway, moving on to the next bit, I can’t help but get nostalgic for Natalie’s “Jeremy Revenge plotline she seemed to be starting after Jeremy’s boot. That was providing good strategy and drama as well. True, she’s still being strategic, and I admire how well she’s reassimilated into the alliance, but still, I can’t help but wonder where on earth that rage went.
Oh, wait, there it is, as Natalie admits that she hasn’t forgotten, and is instead waiting for the right moment to strike Jon. I approve of this. A good “Survivor” move is a good “Survivor” move, but you need to wait for the right moment to use it, or you’re pretty well doomed. This is a much better time to do it. Besides being an odd number, you’ve now got a solid sub alliance within a main alliance that can ensure you maintain power in a flip. No downside!
That will all have to wait, however, as we’ve got our second reward challenge to get to! It never ceases to amaze me how many different sadistic endurance challenges “Survivor” can come up with. In this one, people stand on a wooden block, so small they must put one foot on top of the other, while using a rolling pin to hold up a ball against a piece of wood. If the ball falls, they’re out, last person left wins a comfy bed for the night, along with an Italian meal. Not bad for this late in the game, if I do say so myself.
After a tough battle, Natalie wins, sends Alex to Exile Island, and picks Jaclyn and Jon to join her on reward. Missy and Baylor seem pissed, but they’re not THAT stupid. Surely they can see that Jon and Jaclyn need reassurance, and so it’s better to make them think Natalie favors them over you? Maybe I’m just asking too much this season.
On the reward, Natalie once again proposes strategy talk, but Jon shoots it down in favor of MORE reminiscing about his dad! Seriously, I sympathize with the guy, but it’s getting really old really fast. It’s especially bad for Natalie, who says Jon just LOVES to brag about how good he is with wine. One can only imagine. Natalie gets her strategic comeuppance, however, when Jon decides he trusts her enough to reveal that he has an idol (having revealed it to Missy earlier). Natalie is happy that he trusts her, but is still looking for a chance to get Jon out.
Her chance seems to come the next day. People are particularly pissed about this reward since it happened right in front of them, but Natalie seems to avoid the flak by being apologetic, and getting up promptly and working. Jon and Jaclyn, by contrast, sleep late, and then get up only to take a nap in the shelter again. This gets everyone talking about how lazy and entitled Jon and Jaclyn are, and I cheer that someone finally understands my pain. This makes Natalie bring up to Baylor the possibility of voting out Jon, which she seems on board with, though they agree not to involve Missy, since she’s so tight with Jon. Instead, they’ll get Keith and Alec on board. Like I said earlier, this is a good plan. It’s late enough that moves have to be made, once Jon is gone Missy will probably join back up, and Keith and Alec are not smart enough to be threats against you. No downside.
In this episode’s tradition of reusing challenges, we hearken back to the first “Survivor Blood vs Water”. The contestants must walk backwards while holding a rope to keep a platform level, placing blocks on that platform one at a time. Said blocks must be gotten from increasingly further away pedestals. Each time a block or blocks fall over, you must put back any block you were bringing and reset. First person to have all 10 blocks stacked wins immunity. While not the most visually interesting challenge, I like it. It has a nice dichotomy of precision and speed, and it’s fairly different from what you usually see. In fact, the only thing I dislike about it is that Jon wins, meaning that everything in the second half of the episode so far has been entirely pointless.
Well, now that the INTERESTING plan is off the table, we’ll have to look elsewhere for our misdirection for the episode. As usual, a split vote comes to the rescue. On the off-chance that Keith or Alec has an idol, Jon, Jaclyn, and Natalie will vote for Keith, and Missy and Baylor for Alec. With her main target gone, and it being foolish for Natalie to try and vote Jaclyn out (this would incur the wrath of Jon, who has an idol) we get our misdirection in Natalie talking to Keith, and agreeing that he’s a valuable ally, as he is the most likely person left to beat Jon at immunity. Thus, she might change her vote to Alec (Keith and Alec having given up, and are thus going to vote for one another). This is actually good misdirection, as I don’t know what the move will be, but the problem is it’s pointless. The outcome is roughly the same either way, and there will be no shakeup this episode, which is highly disappointing for a two-hour extravaganza. Admittedly, it is slightly better for Natalie to stick with the plan and vote Keith off, since disobeying Jon could make him suspicious, and thus harder to vote out, but overall, there’s not much of an outcome to be invested in.
Natalie actually makes a few slip-ups at Tribal Council, which seems out of character. She actually admits that there’s more to the alliance than straight elimination, and Jon and Jaclyn look suspicious. Still, Natalie says that for now the alliance will stick together, and everyone seems satisfied. But more importantly a RAT runs through Tribal Council, scaring everyone! And yet Probst STILL manages to make it a metaphor for the game! Come on, man, let a rat be a rat!
To make a long blog slightly shorter, Alec goes home, and nothing of value was lost. As I said earlier, I think it’s the wrong move, as it shocked Missy, Jaclyn, and Jon, but not game ending. Still, it can’t be denied that this episode was lackluster. Nothing really happened of any consequence, there was no misdirection to speak of in the first Tribal Council, and at the second one, it was irrelevant what happened. Not a good way to do your episodes.
Oh, well, every season needs to have a FEW episodes with predictable votes, I guess. Perhaps Jon can be eliminated next week.
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 
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