Well, I promised you more frequent blogs, and here we are! It’s time to talk about “Survivor All-Stars”, a move clearly designed to capitalize on the recent deep dive into the season on “Rob Has a Podcast”, and totally not just a lucky coincidence in any way whatsoever! It’s not like I promised this blog a couple weeks ago or anything!
But yeah, “Survivor All-Stars”. A season that, on paper, should have been a slam-dunk win for the show. 18 of the fan’s favorite players duking out to see who’s the best of the best? Tributes to seasons past? This should have been an easy victory, a contender for top season of all-time. And yet… It’s not. In some ways, I’d say it kind of gets off easy, since given some events we’ll talk about in the season, it should be as reviled as “Survivor Island of the Idols”, yet avoided some of the controversy by virtue of when it aired. But between favorites going early, and some controversial/uncomfortable elements, the fanbase kind of quietly tries to pretend this season doesn’t exist. So, can we change that? Can we make this season the beloved fan favorite it was meant to be? Let’s take a dive in and find out.
Before we get into that, though, be aware that there are SPOILERS ahead. While we will largely be going through a hypothetical scenario in this blog, the fact is, it’s hard to talk about such a scenario without comparing it to how things went down in our timeline, and thus there will be spoilers in this blog. Primarily, this will be in relation to “Survivor All-Stars”, but some future seasons may also get discussed in the “Legacy” section. Point being, proceed with caution.
THE IMPACT
So, in a first for this blog, we have a change that technically occurs outside the season itself. As mentioned in the last blog, the change is that Kathy wins the final immunity challenge of “Survivor Marquesas”, and, as a cascade effect, wins the season. At first glance, you might think this might not change All-Stars at all. After all, Kathy was on the season in our timeline, and as a more popular winner, you think they’re not bringing her back? Of course, I can’t argue with any of this. What I CAN argue with is that Kathy winning doesn’t change the makeup of All-Stars in any way.
You see, dear reader, I think a Kathy win would force a shakeup from the tribe division we’ve come to know on this season. Not that they would have made an effort to bring in Brian Heidik from “Survivor Thailand” to have a tribe of all-winners or anything. If the rumors of Brian being hard to work with and demanding money up front to play again are true, that’s not happening. But there’s no way without it that production would have three winners on a single tribe. Was it a mistake to put the winners at such an obvious disadvantage in our timeline? Perhaps, but at the time, I don’t think production sees it that way, and is more concerned with the previous winners not running rampant over the other players. If Kathy stays on Mogo Mogo, then that tribe is half-winners (Kathy, Richard, and Jenna), and production’s not going to stand for that. How do they shake it up? Well, there’s a couple of different ways, but I think they’d ultimately go with the simplest one: Swapping two members between Mogo Mogo and Chapera. Saboga probably gets left out since they have two winners in our timeline, but Kathy and Colby probably start on Chapter, while Boston Rob and Amber start on Mogo Mogo. This switch seems the simplest and the neatest. The seasonal makeup of each tribe doesn’t change, no tribe has more than two winners on it, and neither tribe gets a major challenge advantage or disadvantage by the trade. I suppose in terms of challenges, one would rather have Kathy than Amber, but that’s a minor point. I did consider that production might swap Alicia to Mogo Mogo instead of Amber, but then Colby and Amber start on the same tribe again, when they started on the same tribe in their first season. Granted, that didn’t stop them from putting Tina and Jerri on the same tribe, even in our timeline, but I think doing so twice might be too much. So, Saboga stays the same, Chapera now has Kathy and Colby, and Mogo Mogo now has Boston Rob and Amber. So what?
THE FALLOUT
As always, with changes that happen so early in the season, it’s tough to go through decision by decision, episode by episode, and say how things would go. Too much changes to really have, for want of a better word, “definitive” conclusions. That said, there are some generalizations I think we can make, based on this one simple change.
First, alliances. Saboga remains the same, of course, since nothing changed with them. Mogo Mogo is also fairly straightforward. Similar to Saboga, there’s a bit of an anti-winner sentiment, or at least an anti-Richard Hatch sentiment. Even in our timeline, Hatch was destined to be the first boot of Mogo Mogo, and I don’t see either Rob or Amber changing that. He was the biggest fish in the pond, after all, and Jenna probably just gets lumped in with him. Rob and Amber still hook up, and given that Rob and Lex were close before the season aired, it’s fair to say they’d team up here. As a safety net against Rob’s coupling, Lex probably buddies up with Shii-Ann, even more so than he did in our timeline. Chapera is a bit of a tougher nut to crack, since so much of their early strategy centered around Rob and Amber. That said, I see Rob C. and Kathy being the pariahs, both for playing good games, and the latter for winning. Colby probably ringleads an alliance of himself, Alicia, Big Tom, and Sue against the pair, though being Colby, he doesn’t really frame it that way.
The second change this produces is in terms of challenges. Saboga is still a train wreck, so a lot of outcomes remain unchanged. However, given how big a force Boston Rob was in terms of winning the challenges, I’d say in this timeline, Chapera and Mogo Mogo flip victories from what we know. Mostly this just swaps around first and second place, but it DOES lead to a Mogo Mogo loss in episode 4’s immunity challenge. But oh, what an important loss that is. You see, this is where Rob C. went out in our timeline, whereas here, he’s safe up until the dissolution of Saboga. Who goes instead? Assuming Mogo Mogo loses, it can only be Richard. Dude was too big a target. As a consequence, the incident between himself and Sue now never happens, already making this timeline an improvement over the one we got. But this also means that Rob C. isn’t quite as screwed over as in our timeline. He’s still screwed, of course, but at least seems to have more of a chance just due to lasting longer.
Without Richard there to suggest Mogo Mogo tie their logs together, it’s tough to say what the outcome of the dissolution challenge would be, but given how Saboga was on a losing streak, let’s say they lose again. The pairs stay the same, but switch to opposite tribes, Jenna and Rupert now going to Mogo Mogo, while Ethan and Jerri end up on Chapera. How do we know this? In the show, we see Colby wanting to take Ethan for Mogo Mogo, and his being on Chapera probably doesn’t change that. Plus, Rob says in the commentary for the finale in our timeline that he wanted Rupert and Jenna on his tribe anyway if they got first pick, so again, probably nothing changes here, though related to a point in the previous paragraph, Sue presumably doesn’t quit, since the inciting incident no longer happens.
From there, our win/loss flip for Chapera and Mogo Mogo continues. While up 8-6 initially, Chapera keeps on losing and losing, sending out the winners and threats in Rob C., Kathy, and Ethan. With no Sue quit, the losing streak continues, forcing Chapera to eat at least one of their own. Mostly likely Sue, since even in this timeline, she probably gets on everyone’s nerves. What’s interesting here is the second tribe swap. If we assume the random draw still ends up lopsidedly leaving only Amber on her original tribe, joined in this timeline by Colby, Big Tom, Alicia, and Jerri. This means that Boston Rob’s plea to save Amber, the thing that arguably inadvertently screws him over the most in our timeline, falls on deaf ears. Unless Colby and Jerri blow up again (and if we’re assuming they made it this far without voting each other out, I think we can say that Amber won’t change that), Rob no longer has a Lex to try and make a deal with, nor a Kathy to plead his case. There is only Colby calling the shots, and Colby doesn’t care about Rob’s romance. Amber gets the axe, and Rob goes from cutthroat mafia don to heartbroken lover. Heck, jumping ahead a bit, without spending the whole game together, this may even kill the Rob/Amber power couple. There might be no Amazing Race legacy, even!
Thus, Mogo Mogo has an edge at the merge, though very slight. It’s nearly impossible to predict how things would go at this point, though in general, I’d say they keep their advantage. Rob wants revenge, and Lex is happy to use that drive to his advantage, probably bringing in Big Tom as an extra sixth vote, then getting out Colby, Alicia, and Jerri, probably in that order. From there, it comes down to who of the original Mogo Mogo can grab power. With no Amber at his side, it’s probably not Rob. My guess would be that Lex and Shii-Ann become the power duo of the season, though not in a romantic sense. Between Lex’s connection to Big Tom, and Rob losing his partner, my guess would be that those two power through to the end, leading to an ultimate victory for Lex, though with Shii-Ann gaining a lot of respect along the way. If nothing else, we lose out on the unpleasantness that is the overly-personal post-merge of our timeline. True, it’s still pretty much a straight Pagonging, but at least it’s merely routine, rather than painful.
THE LEGACY
For once, we’ll start with how this impacts returnee seasons, partly because there’s fewer that people from All-Stars qualify for, and partly because All-Stars doesn’t really make most anyone new more famous. We’ve had returnees from the All-Stars era, like Rupert, Colby, and Jerri, but they were famous due to their original season, not so much their performance on this season. Really, only Boston Rob and Amber became household names as a result of All-Stars. Amber is now relegated to the “forgotten” pile in this timeline, but Rob is still remembered. That said, Rob’s perception changes from how we now it in the eyes of the audience. Rather than known as the cutthroat backstabber he was after All-Stars, Rob in this time is, ironically, noted for his loyalty. He sticks with his original tribe throughout, and goes on a revenge quest for his girlfriend after she gets voted out. It helps as well that he doesn’t have as many personal betrayals as in our timeline, making things feel less personal overall. So he probably still comes back on all the seasons we think of, but on Heroes vs. Villains, is actually on the Heroes tribe. How weird is that?
Lex winning doesn’t change a ton, as while his gameplay is respected, he is ultimately a “villain” winner in the eyes of the public. Remembered, but not super well-liked. Still, he probably comes back for Winners at War in Nick’s spot, with someone like Jenna probably taking over Amber’s spot in this timeline. Really, the breakout star of the new timeline, though, is Shii-Ann. All-Stars made her more notable in our timeline, but here, where she plays a solid game and comes close to winning? She’s a legend now. Probably brought back several times, most likely on Heroes vs. Villains as a Villain, and possibly in Game Changers as well.
Really, though, the big question is whether the perception of All-Stars overall changes as a result of the new timeline. I’d say it does, and does so for the better. Most of the unpleasantness, from the Richard/Sue incident to the personal betrayals of Boston Rob, are gone now, and some of our big names make it a bit farther. True, there’s still a Pagonging post-merge, and a lot of big names still go out early, but hey, low bar or not, this new timeline is definitely an improvement overall. At worst, this timeline is merely boring. At best, it’s a great tribute to the early days of “Survivor” with no pain whatsoever on rewatch.
And that about wraps up this two-parter of a “What If?” Scenario. I hope you all enjoyed exploring it, and I hope there’s more to come. That said, I’m always soliciting for new ideas for scenarios to look at, so feel free to post them in the comments below, either directly on the blog, or on whatever form of social media you found this on. Do also bear in mind that there are some rules determining whether or not I’ll accept a scenario for review:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast rules, there are two what I call “Flexible Rules”. As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
Have a good weekend, everyone!
-Matt
idolspeculation 
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