Come on in guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! In my opinion, this blog had a pretty fun off-season. Got to try out a new format that was well-received. But now, the cast has been announced on a Monday for some reason, so it’s time to dive into the VERY limited pool of information we have for these new players. I know I say that every season, but even this feels like a downgrade. Pretty much all we have to go on from official sources is the “EW” photo gallery with a few snippits of information, plus bios and a two minute video, which is mostly Jeff Probst talking, from CBS. Weak, guys! Weak! I can barely fall back on my little “pet peeves predict how you’ll do on the show” theory. Suffice to say, this blog, never the most accurate at predicting how players will do, is probably going to go down another notch on the accuracy meter. So, which first boot will I foolishly call as the winner today? Let’s find out, as we dive into the cast!
As a side note, for the sake of simplicity, I’m going in the order of the photo gallery on “EW”, since I need that as a reminder of my thoughts on a given player.
Kellee Kim (29, MBA Student, Philadelphia, PA, Vokai Tribe): Hoo boy, right off the bat, and we’ve got some explaining to do. My longtime readers will remember that I once proclaimed that “Survivor” had yet to have a person named “Kelly” who wasn’t “As bland as beige wallpaper.” That still holds true, but thankfully for Kellee, she falls into what I call the “Wentworth Loophole”, named for Kelley Wentworth of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Basically, your name can be “Kelly” and you can still be memorable, as long as your name is spelled in an unusual way. Sure enough, Kellee continues this trend, starting off on my good side by listing “Settlers of Catan” as her hobby, but specifically mentioning the “Cities and Knights” expansion, aka the best expansion there is. Hatred of mayo is a second check mark for her in my book. I must admit, this Kellee intrigues me. She seems fairly fit (being on the varsity soccer team at Harvard is no small feat), and decently likable, with very little to go against her. Overall, someone who, on paper, should do well on the show. So, she’s my winner pick, right? Well… I’m sorry, but no. Kellee’s a dark horse for me. She definitely has a shot at winning. However, there’s two things about her that make me pause. One is that her pet peeves center around sleep, and anyone who’s pet peeve is likely to come up on “Survivor” loses points with me. The other is that, well, while a “Kelly” or variation can be memorable, however you spell it, they don’t win. In other words precedent works against her. I give Kellee good odds to make the mid-to-late merge area, but she’d need to be amazing to pull out a win. Not out of the question, but not what I see happening.
Ronnie Bardah (35, Pro Poker Player, Boston, MA, Lairo Tribe): Well, we go from one of the people I have the most to say about to one of the people I have the least to say about. Getting a bit ahead of myself, this cast overall does a good job of being distinctive early on, but Ronnie is sadly the exception that proves the rule. There’s nothing particularly wrong with him. He’s just your generic, strong guy who think’s he’s more charming than he actually is. The only thing memorable about him is how much he talks about his profession and unfortunately, I count that as a mark against him. Pro Poker Player is one of two professions (I’ll discuss the other later) that people claim prepares them for “Survivor”, but in my opinion really doesn’t. There’s an element of bluffing in poker, but there’s a higher ratio of luck than there is in “Survivor”, plus sitting in an air-conditioned casino just doesn’t compare to surviving in Fiji. Still, he’s at least strong, and as long as he doesn’t pull a Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”) he should be around for a bit. I peg Ronnie as the merge boot this season. Unassuming, but think’s he’s better than he is, and out as soon as physicality becomes a threat.
Chelsea Walker (26, Digital Content Creator, Los Angeles, CA, Lairo Tribe): You have to admire someone with that stick-to-it-iveness. While I personally have stopped applying to the show (the game is moving in a direction that no longer holds my interest in playing), as a long-term applicant, I can’t help but root for someone whose perseverance in this area was eventually rewarded. Beyond this, Chelsea’s biggest strength seems to be avoiding the usual pitfalls of contestants. Her pet peeve mentions a type of shoe, so as long as that’s on there she’s set. She doesn’t seem like she’ll be overly confrontational. She doesn’t seem like she’ll make any openly moronic moves. Really, my only concern with Chelsea is that her repeated applications mark her as a superfan, and as we’ve seen in seasons past, they can be overly concerned with making moves, rather than SMART moves. I see Chelsea going out in a blaze of glory, but it will be a LATE blaze of glory. Somewhere in the mid-merge area, I’d say.
Dean Kowalski (28, Tech Sales, New York City, Lairo Tribe): Oh, Dean. Dean, Dean, Dean. These are the hardest bios to write. I like you, man. I really like you. It’s just that I don’t think the rest of the cast is going to like you. In case his occupation didn’t make it obvious, Dean is a nerd. The man lists his proudest accomplishment as relating to teaching Algebra, and also mentions liking astronomy and physics. As the son of an astrophysicist, I can’t help but approve. I like the kid, but do I think he’s winning “Survivor”? Absolutely not! This cast has a lot of tough, athletic types, and I don’t see Dean fitting in well with that. The trouble, oddly, is that he’s a more realistic, well-rounded nerd than we usually get on the show. Compare him with someone like Christian Hubicki from “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. Christian, for how much we love him as well, was a more over-the-top stereotypical nerd. Gabbling on about algorithms and matrices, jabbering about all of this at top speed. Is it a more stereotypical character? Yes, but that’s kind of what the non-nerd public has come to expect. Shows like “The Big Bang Theory” have popularized this type of characterization and made it endearing. A well-rounded nerd, like Dean, while less drama-filled, also just comes off as kind of different from others, rather than endearingly different. I don’t think Dean will actively distance himself from others, but with how different his attitude and worldview are from the rest of the cast, it’ll just kind of happen. They won’t have enough in common to relate, and so he’ll be left out of major alliances. As such, he’s our first boot to go pre-merge, though he won’t be the first out. Someone would have to be actively annoying and/or a detriment for that to happen.
Noura Salman (36, Entrepreneur, North Potomac, MD, Vokai Tribe): For reference, on these, I read the CBS cast bio last, but start forming opinions immediately. Initially, I was at least indifferent to Noura. True, she seemed like a bit of the take-charge type, which can be detrimental early game, but not so much as to really torpedo her chances. Then I got to her CBS bio, and saw her pet peeves. “People lacking personal hygiene and table manners” and “People who are selfish, self-absorbed, and stingy”. Because clearly, people living on an island with now shower or toiletries, whose only goal is to backstab each other for ever-increasing amounts of money will NOT hit any of those personal pet peeves at all! Yeah, I was going to give Noura the benefit of a doubt, but this just goes too far. If I’m already thinking you’re someone who might go too hard on being the leader, AND your pet peeves are antithetical to the game of “Survivor”? Yeah, there’s no way Noura lasts long. Her one saving grace is that I think she’s on the tribe that will have better challenge results early on (and not just because they’re purple), so she probably lasts a few boots, but come the swap, I say she’s toast. I will, however, give her props for comparing herself to a former contestant of the opposite gender. That takes guts, and I’d like to see more of that.
Vince Moua (27, Admissions Counselor, Palo Alto, CA, Lairo Tribe): Contrary to our previous entry, my estimate of Vince’s chances have gone up the more I read his bio. I don’t usually put much stock in the “Which previous contestant are you most like?” category, beyond as a rough metric of how much of the show one has watch, but I put my foot down when the first word out of his mouth was “Vince”. For some reason, I believed this meant he was comparing himself to Vince Sly (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And look, Vince is entertaining, but he’s NOT the guy you want to emulate. Then it occurred to me that he was probably doing a variation on the “I’m an original” line. Still annoying, but not game-torpedoing. Still, this Vince is a little quirky, but it’s the kind of fun quirky I can get behind. Being declared the next shaman in the family has got to make for some fun campfire stories. While I do think Vince is probably overall too nice to win the game, and his pet peeves are a mixed bag (armrests good, racism and promise-breaking bad), I also think he knows enough to keep his head down and just be charming. Probably an early merge boot.
Lauren Beck (28, Nanny, Glendale, CA, Vokai Tribe): Ok, I know that the show moved away from casting hard-core survivalists years ago, but there are limits, people! I had a bad feeling about Lauren’s chances when I fist got a glimpse of her photo, and almost nothing I read did anything to change that. True, her pet peeves are inoffensive enough, but she just screams “worldly” to me. Her every interest, from Cheetos to tru crime shows does not seem like the type of person who will do well in the wild, let alone on “Survivor”. Basically, Lauren is either going to shut down due to the elements, or complain so much that everyone wants to get rid of her. Not that it matters at all, but she screams “recruit” to me, on a season where very few players do. Hence, while she may be a perfectly nice person in real life, on the show, her chances are slim. Not the first boot, again due to lucky tribe placement, but definitely an early merge boot.
Tommy Sheehan (26, 4th Grade Teacher, Long Beach, NY, Vokai Tribe): After all that negativity, I need a good bio to get me out of this funk. And who better to do so that my personal favorite of the season, Tommy. Coincidentally, Tommy is also my male pick to win the whole season. This all might seem weird, because if you look at Tommy’s bios, there’s not much to them. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not giving one-word answers, but he’s not giving away a whole lot either. And that, I think, is what will make him the winner. He knows not to give everything away in one fell swoop, despite the obvious temptation to do so. This speaks well of his chances, and it’s what makes him so intriguing to me. Plus, while his answers are short, they’re generally good, and belie an intimate knowledge of “Survivor”. Take, for instance, his liking of asking his Magic-8 Ball about the future. Could this be a Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) reference? Possibly, but if you want more explicit knowledge of “Survivor” arcana, look at the players he compares himself to. True, he mentions David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) who’s fairly well-known, but his other two mentions show he’s more than just a casual fan. He mentions Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”) who’s admittedly still well-known, but hardly as recent as David. But then he mentions Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) who, while recent, is a less-remembered and I believe underrated player. This, to me, indicates that Tommy knows what the hell he’s doing out there, but doesn’t do so in a way others might catch on to. True, his pet peeve of bullies is a bit concerning, but if he can keep it under wraps, much like his intelligence, then I’m confident in saying that Tommy has what it takes to be a winner.
Karishma Patel (37, Personal Injury Lawyer, Houston, TX, Lairo Tribe): Remember when I said there was another occupation that seems like it would play well on “Survivor”, but I feel really doesn’t? Yeah, that other one is lawyers. Despite what the recent victory of Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) might indicate, generally, the skills of arguing in a courtroom aren’t going to win you many favors with the contestants. As Willard Smith (“Survivor Palau”) once told us, “A significant portion of [people] know lawyer jokes.” True, so do a significant portion of lawyers, but there’s still that bias to contend with. Karishma compares herself to to Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Str”), but to me, she seems closer to Nadiya from the same season. Loud, in your face, and an easy person to consent around. Having limited challenge skills from what I can surmise, coupled with not being lucky on which tribe she was placed on, Karishma gets the dubious honor of being my predicted first boot. She doesn’t seem to have the challenge chops to be worth keeping around, and I don’t see her sitting back, being quiet, and letting other people become targets. As such, first boot, and now that I’ve said that, she’s probably going to go on to win the whole thing, given my track record. Karishma, if you’re reading this, you’re welcome.
Aaron Meredith (36, Gym Owner, Warwick, RI, Lairo Tribe): If nothing else, credit Aaron for having a good self-knowledge. He compares himself to Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”), which I think is an apt comparison. Spectacular brawn, but not much else to recommend him. Still, I’ve heard of worse traits than good self-knowledge. Following the pattern of his comparison, Aaron will probably be an early-to-mid merge boot. It helps a lot that he’s on the tribe that going to need strength early on, as his pet peeves of laziness and ignorance might be triggered on the show. Pre-merge, people are going to need him in spite of that, but once the merge hits, he becomes a threat, and I don’t see him having the capacity to last much beyond that.
Molly Byman (27, Law Student, Durham, NC, Vokai Tribe): Molly is definitely an interesting one. Very mixed on the good and the bad. A woman who likes board games, as established with Kellee earlier, is a woman after my own heart, and casual tarot card reading makes for a good bit of flavor. Plus, another superfan. On the minus side, Molly, well, stands out. In case it wasn’t obvious, on “Survivor”, that’s rarely a good thing. Especially in the early game, even a slight difference can be enough to evict you. Other players, desperate to spare themselves the humiliation of an early boot, will seize on anything to avoid the dreaded snuff. While Molly is not the worst offender I’ve seen, and she does have the good fortune to be on what I’m considering the dominant tribe early on, she’s just always going to stand out in a crowd, which you don’t want. As such, despite her good fortune, I’m predicting another pre-merge boot. Think Flicka from “Survivor Cook Islands”. Memorable character with a fun lifestyle, but not going to win “Survivor”.
Tom Laidlaw (60, Former NHL Player, Greenwich, CT, Lairo Tribe): Ladies and Gentleman, may I present to you, OUR FIRST CANADIAN CONTESTANT… Who currently lives in the US, but hey, baby steps. Much as I like the novelty of this, and am happy to see Canada finally getting some representation on the show, Tom is not going to be a good outing for the country. His answers are a little short, but nothing he says in his bio is particularly damning. Hell, his pet peeve is probably one of the safest: driving in slowly in the fast lane. Something perfectly understandable, yet unlikely to be encountered on “Survivor”. The trouble that Tom can’t escape is his age. Sure, he seems in great shape for a 60-year-old, but like it or not, the body atrophies, and even an in-shape 60-year-old body is something of a liability. This, on a tribe that cannot afford liabilities. While tom seems inoffensive enough to escape the first boot, don’t be expecting him to make the merge. Sorry, Canada. Maybe soon we’ll have “Survivor America vs. Canada”, and you can get better representation.
Missy Byrd (24, Air Force Veteran, Tacoma, WA, Lairo Tribe): Ah, our resident military contestant for the season. These types of people generally fall one of two ways: Either they blend in well with civilians, and are helpful about survival without being domineering, or they try too blatantly to take charge and get on everyone else’s nerves. Given that Missy lists “Annoying human beings” as her pet peeve, I’m inclined to say she falls into the latter category, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence for her. Whatever trouble she may have bonding with her fellow contestants, it cannot be denied that Missy is in tip-top shape, and on a tribe that needs that, like Lairo, such personalities might be ignored. Presuming a 2-3 tribe switch at some point, I even think Missy will survive to the merge, since she’s likely to be the big challenge gun on whatever small tribe she ends up on. Once that merge hits, though? Now Missy is a threat, and an annoying one, at that. As such, she probably goes around the early merge, though if she’s better at keeping her military background under wraps, she could make the mid-merge.
Jack Nichting (23, Graduate Student, Harrisonburg, VA, Vokai Tribe): When you don’t have video of many of these people talking, there’s not a lot to go on beyond what’s written. Even so, despite his writings overall being good, I don’t give Jack great odds. He talks a big game about playing the “smarter than I look” card, but I get the sense that that’s just what he thinks he needs to say, rather than what he is. At his core, Jack strikes me as an inoffensive, yet strong, party boy. This will serve him well early on, but I just don’t see him having the smarts or the killer instinct to win. In fact, I’ll go even farther and call him a pre-merge boot, though post-swap. There’ll be bigger fish to fry on a large tribe, but after a 2-3 swap, he stands out a lot more, and I could see a Lairo minority taking him out as a big gun from the original Vokai. Plus, his pet peeves deal with personalities he’s likely to see on “Survivor”, so having him out here fits my pet theory. Sorry, Jack.
Elaine Stott (41, Factory Worker, Rockholds, KY, Lairo Tribe): Here’s another where I don’t think what’s on paper belies how they actually are, though in Elaine’s case, I think it has less to do with who she is, and more to do with where she is. She’s an older woman, and while this cast is not as bad as some in this way, the show is skewing young once again. She comes across as motherly and no-nonsense, two things that can be tough to relate to. She doesn’t seem particularly strong. An yet, paradoxically, I think Elaine will make it deep in “Survivor”. Once again, the tribe she’s on has everything to do with it. Yes, Elaine seems like she won’t be the best at challenges, and yes, it does seem like her personality could be a bit annoying to live with, but there’s a lot of people like that on this tribe, who are way worse about it than she is. Thus, she’ll be kept around early, probably often the alternate boot, but never evicted. Then, once she makes the merge, she’s no target. Basically, another Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and as someone who quite enjoyed Lauren on that season, I’m all for it! Elaine will definitely provide some fun and original moments, and I look forward to seeing her make it deep.
Jason Linden (32, Personal Injury Lawyer, New York City, Vokai Tribe): Jason may not talk about his career as much as others, but I still say it does him no favors. The trouble is that Jason is another one who doesn’t really give me a lot to work with. Another generic strong, nice guy with not a lot else to recommend him. Like most in this archetype, he’ll do well pre-merge, but then become a threat. I will give Jason slightly better odds on this than usual, though, and for two reasons. One, he’s on the tribe I think will dominate early on, so he could be ensconced in the majority for a while, even post-merge. Two, he does at least on paper understand that “Survivor” is a social game, not a purely strategic one. Again, not sure if that will carry him far in the game, but it is just enough to allow me to push him into the mid-to-late merge category, rather than the early-to-mid merge category.
Elizabeth Beisel (26, Olympic Medalist, Saunderstown, RI, Lairo Tribe): Elizabeth is another one who gives very little, and I think it’s to her credit. She doesn’t go quite as far in this as Tommy, but there’s still subtle little touches that I like. Notably, she again compares herself to an off-beat contestant, Kara Kay of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. True, a recent season, but I would argue not one of the stand-outs of the recent season, implying both fandom and a good bit of self-knowledge, both of which I like. On top of that, looking at her photo, there’s just sort of a charming, unassuming, girl-next-door kind of vibe that’s not going to rub anyone the wrong way. Add on her being physically competent on a tribe likely to keep physical strength, plus another pet peeve (scrolling on phones while talking) that’s not going to come up on the show, and there’s no other place to put Elizabeth than as my female winner pick. Yes, this means once again, I’m going with the Olympic Swimmer as my female winner pick. Evidently Katrina Radke (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) didn’t burn me badly enough.
Jamal Shipman (33, College Administrator, Providence, RI, Vokai Tribe): You don’t like bugs, and you went on “Survivor”? Big check mark against you, man. Luckily for you, that’s the only check mark against you. Jamal seems charming and athletic, but not threateningly so, with a bit of relatability that can take you a long way in this game. Plus, once again, he’s on the tribe unlikely to lose. Despite some generic answers, assuming he can survive the bugs, I think Jamal is an early-to-mid merge boot. He may be a bit too nice to win, but I think he’ll do well nonetheless.
Janet Carbin (59, Chief Lifeguard, Palm Beach, FL, Vokai Tribe): Janet really wants to do what Elaine did earlier, but unfortunately, I don’t think she’ll be as successful. Unlike Elaine, she doesn’t seem to have much charm beneath her exterior, despite her claims to the contrary. Her answers are brief, and while that means she’s unlikely to spill secrets, it can also come across as cutting off conversation, and even in reading it, that’s what it seems like to me. Her pet peeve of lazy people should be no problem, though. I mean, it’s not like we’ve ever seen lazy people on “Survivor” before, right? But, like Tom before her, Janet’s big hurdle is her age. Even on the tribe that’s likely to win early, age is a liability, and not one they’re likely to let sit around. Unless Elaine can weasel her way in as a worker bee, she’s out pre-merge. Depending on the success of her tribe, she might make the swap, but not much beyond that.
Dan Spilo (48, Talent Manager, Los Angeles, CA, Vokai Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dan to me is probably the person who benefits the most from being on Vokai. While not necessarily “old”, he is “old” by “Survivor” standards, and doesn’t seem particularly physically fit. Being a Talent Manager, first of NYC, lately of LA, you can bet he’s got a forceful personality. And, the crowning death knell for Dan’s chances, his pet peeves are all about people’s attitudes. “Stubborn people”, “Ignorance”, and “Close-mindedness”. Again, because you never see THAT on “Survivor”. And yet, I mark him as a mid-merge boot? Why? Well, similar to Elaine, while he has marks against him, others on the tribe have them arguably worse. With a tribe that’s likely to win a lot of challenges, Dan strikes me as that annoying player who squeaks by a lot of Tribal Councils, then is safe early in the merge due to being the person no one will vote for in the end. He won’t win, because eventually even a million dollars is not worth putting up with such a personality, but he’ll make it deep. Plus, his last-name basis of past winners implies he has enough knowledge of the game to tamp himself down a bit early game. It won’t last the longer Dan lasts in the game, but he should last at least a fair while.
And there you have it. Not much to do now but wait until the season starts to see the boot order be completely flipped from what I predict! Even if so, though, I must admit, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season. We’ve got a lot of fun characters to work with, very few duds, and most importantly, no one that annoys me greatly. Really, the worst thing about this cast would be the number of “standard” listings for previous contestant comparison. Kelley Wentworth seems poised to overtake Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”) as the go-to for young women, but even the men are now getting in on the act, with Jeremy Collins (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) being popular choices.
No matter what, though, we can take solace that this season will be better than last season. Granted, given that last season had the “Edge of Extinction” twist, and this one does not, this season would have to actively sabotage itself to be worse, but still, it’s hope.
See you at the premiere!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 