Forgive me for starting my blog philosophizing about what it takes to win “Survivor”, but as this season, nor the last, had a themed tribe split, I haven’t had a chance to espouse my pet philosophy yet. The person best equipped to win “Survivor” is the person with the best balance. Not in terms of physical balance (though the case of Terry Deitz on “Survivor Exile Island” does make a strong argument for it), but in terms of balance in gameplay style. For instance, on a season like “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, the person who balances the best qualities of a “David” and a “Goliath” within themselves is most likely to win. Now, while this philosophy comes up most prominently on seasons with “vs” themes, it really applies everywhere. Such is the case tonight, where we have a bit of a complexity overload possibly leading to a bad move. Ah, but now I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s begin at the beginning.
In case you had forgotten about it, Elaine reminds us about her blocking Jason’s vote, and then voting him out last episode. Incidentally, dick move there. I can’t fault the using of the advantage, but still, to vote someone out and not even giving them the chance to vote? Dick move.
Old Vokai have now been blindsided, and feel real fear for the first time in the game. Lauren does not take it well. Let me preface what I’m about to say by saying that Lauren has been playing a solid game thus far, and I will have some praise for her later tonight. But MAN does Lauren not take this well. She gets incredibly emotional, particularly with Missy, whom she seems to have something of a bond with. Now, does Lauren have a right to her feelings? Absolutely. But, as I’ve said before and will say again, you can’t let them out like this, especially in the immediate aftermath of a blindside. best to say “good job”, maybe try and get a bit of information, and move on. Any sort of emotional reaction makes you seem harder to work with, and therefore a target. Luckily for Lauren, Missy’s “Girls Alliance” switch is flipped to “On” this week, and so Missy wants to keep her around to use her as an “in” with the old Vokai. Good strategy on her part, though I wish we got a consistent narrative for what that strategy IS. One week she’s all in with the women, the next she’s saying it was never a thing, the week after, back to the women. I’m not saying don’t be flexible, I’m saying have a narrative throughline, rather than this choppiness.
Lairo may not have the interpersonal turmoil that Vokai currently has, but thing’s aren’t so easy for them either. As happens every so often on “Survivor”, the elements rear their ugly heads, and a torrential downpour hammers the tribe. Karishma complains about the shelter getting them wet, but the more immediate concern is fire, the lack thereof. Jamal volunteers himself to restart it, and from what we see, tries for a while with little success. Jack suggests getting Kellee to do it, since she’s good at fire. Kellee reluctantly agrees, only for Jamal to start telling her how to do it. Kellee diplomatically asks if Jamal wants to keep doing it, hands him back the materials and storms off. She tells us in confessional that Jamal can come off as condescending sometimes, such as in the previous scene. Jack’s diplomacy eventually coaxes her back into the role, and she does make fire, but there’s tension now. Jamal’s annoyance makes for an interesting contrast with Noura’s annoyance. Both are rubbing their tribes the wrong way, but for very different reasons. Noura is a blatant annoyance: Talking too loud, laughing too much, wearing her heart on her sleeve, etc. That said, you always know where you stand with her. In contrast, Jamal is polite and has more social graces, but can grate on you in little ways. Plus, he’s outside the alliance and sneaky. Not that much will come of it tonight, but it’s an interesting contrast.
We sadly don’t have much time to dwell on it, as a boat comes, bidding Janet go to the Island of the Idols. Janet, as mentioned the last time, is somewhat reluctant to go, since it puts a target on her back. This time she has no escape route, though, and so contents herself with putting on an over-the-top “upset” face. I say this because I don’t think someone like Janet has been upset in 20 years.
After a literal jaw-dropping reveal of Boston Rob and Sandra, we get down to brass tacks. Boston Rob talks about “Survivor” being a game of calculated risks, and then my tv spontaneously explodes. Must have been the “Survivor Edge of Extinction” failsafe I put on there after last season. No more of that on my screen, thank you.
Switching to steaming the show on my computer, I must admit this “calculated risks” schpiel seems like a reused one. Isn’t that basically what ALL contests, and Vince’s in particular, have been up to this point? That said, it IS a good lesson for Janet, who earlier had turned down Noura’s idea of a women’s alliance. While I can’t say for certain whether or not the women’s alliance is a good strategy for Janet, I can say her reaction to it is wrong. You ALWAYS show at least a bit of interest in a deal. Keep your options open for down the road. Not that Janet burned her bridge with Noura, but it still seems like a missed opportunity for her.
Back to the game of chance, Boston Rob lays out the stakes. Win and you get what basically amounts to a hidden immunity idol that also prevents you from voting. You go back to camp before the vote. Can’t be voted for, can’t cast a vote yourself. Not the most original twist, but it’s something. As usual, if you lose, you lose your next vote. Janet takes her time to consider, which she should definitely do, though for me this is one of the more clear-cut decisions. There’s very little risk if Janet plays. She’s in a solid majority on a tribe likely to go to Tribal Council next, which doesn’t need her vote to succeed, and if she wins, she basically gets a hidden immunity idol good through the final seven. Not being able to vote kind of sucks, but you know what sucks more? Being voted out, that’s what! Janet, however, is a cautious player, and chooses not to take the risk, citing too much flak if she makes herself immune. Gotta admit, I’m not seeing the logic here, Janet. If you use an advantage, that generally makes you LESS of a target. You’ve effectively revealed your hand, and people won’t be suspicious of what you have. If she’s talking about suspicion of her having something in the first place, well, that just makes even LESS sense, since that’s going to happen to you REGARDLESS just by coming back from “Island of the Idols”. Still, props for giving us something different, and she earns the praise of Sandra, which isn’t nothing.
Kellee is concerned that Janet won’t toe the party line on “Island of the Idols” when she returns, but luckily for her, Janet keeps to the story, and we reaffirm that the tribe as a whole wants Dean gone, spinning Noura as a story to him, and Kellee and Noura having chips on their shoulders about Jamal.
Strategy is not unknown to Vokai, either. It seems Kellee is not the only one a bit creeped out by Dan, as Lauren, Tommy, Missy, and Elizabeth discuss the next day. Evidently Dan needs to take his cue from Emperor Kuzco, and “No Touchee”. Boy, there’s a phrase I never thought I’d say.
With no obvious crack in the old Lairo on their tribe, the old Vokai members, or at least Tommy and Lauren, go for plan B: Make sure it’s not them. I would say “me” but Lauren makes it clear that she and Tommy are a pair. If someone has to go, it should be Dan. After all, he was rubbing people the wrong way (both figuratively and literally in this case), so he’ll be less missed from the old Vokai. Tommy even spins a decent lie he acts out very well, telling most of the old Lairo that Dan talked about voting out Aaron. A decent lie, but if Missy is inconsistent in terms of her overall strategy, she’s very consistent in sniffing out BS. She recognizes the bond that Tommy and Lauren have, correctly conclude that they’re lying, and strategize to get one of the two of them out. She targets Tommy in particular, since she and Lauren have something of a bond despite the blindside (they still seem to pair up, though Lauren admitted that it was going to be hard to trust Missy going forward), and believes that getting rid of Tommy will make Lauren side with her. Given the information she has, I can’t blame her. However, I think Missy underestimates the bond Lauren has with people like Janet and Kellee. It’s understandable, since Missy’s never seen them interact, but I think voting out Tommy would only drive a wedge between Lauren and herself, leading to a Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) situation where Lauren makes it her mission to get revenge for her fallen ally.
On to the challenge which is for… Immunity! Ok, I can understand needing to cut reward challenges for time, but you gave us them in the last two episodes, and now we expect them. Be consistent is all I’m saying! They at least give us a pretty cool challenge for it. Three tribe members toss coconuts into a net, which will knock over a set of puzzle pieces. The remaining four then assembles these into a “Survivor” logo, winning immunity. Not a bad set of elements overall, even if they are reused. Coconut tosses are always fun, and what the puzzle lacks in complexity, it makes up for in scale. Plus, we get Tommy and Jack yelling a lot. Always good for a laugh.
After last episode (both in terms of Lairo actually winning and losing Jason) contests are now going to be much more even overall, and the editing gives us very little. We got viable targets on both tribes pre-challenge. Vokai only got one (Tommy), while Lairo had multiple (Dean, Noura, Jamal), making for good mystery. Funnily enough, we had a situation where both tribes had good reason to try and throw the challenge. We didn’t see it, but it was still a funny concept. I actually thought Missy and Elizabeth, two of the throwers for Vokai, WERE trying to throw the challenge, since their shots went SO wide for athletic people, but since they were drilling shots later, I can only assume they just needed some practice to get in the groove. Vokai gets a lead from Tommy’s shooting, and although they narrowly lose it on the puzzle, they still pull out a narrow victory. Kellee angsts about the use of her idol, as tonight is the last night she can play it, which I’m sure in NO WAY will come into play tonight!
Dean is reaffirmed as the primary target for the night, with Jamal and Jack spinning him a good story about voting for Noura, due to her being, well, Noura. Even Detective Dean can’t see through their poker faces. Kellee, meanwhile, is still down and out about not being able to use her idol, evidently forgetting about the Chrissy Hoffbeck (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) school of “Dead Idol as Leverage/Bluff”. Then, though, she has an epiphany! A complicated epiphany! The Rube Goldberg Machine of epiphanies! She wants to keep Dean around, since she has a connection she can use. Fair enough. She wants her idol not to go to waste. Still fair, though again, an idol CAN be of use even if you don’t play it. She wants to give Dean her idol so he can save himself, and here’s where things start to get finicky. I agree with her argument that it’s best for her game if Jack or Jamal go. Both worked against her interest in the past, and could be dangerous come a merge. Plus, since Dean has nowhere to go, he’s not much of a threat. But I fail to see how giving Dean your idol is necessary. True, it ensure Dean will be forever loyal to you (as much as one can on “Survivor”), but just letting him in on a plan to not vote him out will do that! It’s not like the guy has anywhere else to go! All his allies are gone! Now what, you may ask, is the harm of letting Dean play the idol? After all, it gets to the same result in the end. The trouble, though, it that it increases risk for Kellee (as she herself mentions, Dean could use this against her), but she either has to publicly play her idol for Dean, or let him steal a moment that should be for her. She doesn’t know the jury will start tonight (it will), but if she’s suspecting a merge, like she tells us, then most people here will be on the jury, and will see this great move of her. Unless, of course, it just looks like Dean found the idol on his own, in which case he gets all the credit for saving himself. To add onto the complexity pile, Kellee wants to let Noura in on the plan, and have her vote for either Jack or Jamal. Now we’re back in good idea territory, but again, we didn’t necessarily need to go here. True, Jack and Jamal will never go along with the plan, and Janet’s made it pretty clear she’s not moving, but the fact remains that we’re never shown why Kellee can’t keep her idol (or play it on herself, just to be safe), and go to Karishma, Dean, and Noura, and rally them to vote out Jack or Jamal 4-3. You could argue that this move would piss off the remaining two left out, but either Jack or Jamal would be pissed anyway, and all you have to do is let Janet know, and she’ll be at least slightly less miffed. Kellee doesn’t know that Jamal has an idol, so she can’t know that this is the risk.
Point being, I think Kellee got a little too caught up in her idea, and made it overly complex. Is it the worst thing in the world? No, but I think it got a little too cute, and ran more risk than she needed, as outlined above. Not the end of the world for her tonight, but could be a problem long term. Simple plans are simply foiled, but plans that are too complex lead to a lot of unnecessary risk. Like most things on “Survivor”, you need to balance simplicity and complexity in your plans. Complex enough to not be easily foiled, but simple enough to avoid unnecessary risk.
Since we see Kellee telling Dean about her idol, it’s pretty clear that either Jamal or Jack is going home. Yes, it kills the mystery a bit, but this is another good example of a “journey” episode, rather than a “destination” episode. We don’t need mystery if there’s a fun story getting there, and damn if this isn’t fun. Plus the mystery of who was going to Tribal Council, plus the mystery between Jack and Jamal keeps that element going. As to who she should go with, Kellee lines out her choices better than I could. Jack is a threat come the merge, but Jamal is less likely to work with her. Both compelling arguments, but for me, Jamal is the correct choice here. Leaving aside his idol (as Kellee can’t possibly know about it), while Jack is a threat come the merge, you don’t know for certain that the merge is coming, and Jack’s a bigger target than you if it is. Plus, Jack’s shown that he takes betrayal WAY better than Jamal. You want as many options as possible, and Jack could still be willing to work with you, even if you do betray him. Betray Jamal, however, and that bridge is burned pretty much for good.
Even Tribal Council has a bit of complexity addiction tonight. Dean, of course, plays up his moroseness, but Noura decides she needs to add on to it. She starts off well, talking about long term trust versus short term trust, indicating that not knowing Dean for as long makes him a target by gesturing in his direction. She also gestures towards Jamal as someone she doesn’t get along with, but Jamal takes it in stride. Then, however, she has to get complex with it. She goes on some extended metaphor about family, talking about working with and against the jerks in the family, and now Jamal is suspicious. He requests that Probst question Noura on trying to target him, which Probst obliges, hilariously mimicking Jamal’s gestures as he does so. Jamal then invokes the dreaded “Women’s Alliance”, getting Kellee into the action, who calls the accusation “arbitrary” and “sexist”. She does have a point when she says it’s brought up as a threat more often than it’s actually a problem, but in Jamal’s defense, we’re still reeling from “Survivor Micronesia”. This segways into a nice, honest discussion about how the perception of women in society is changing, and how that impacts the game. It’s a thoughtful and engaging discussion, ruined by Probst talking about how “relevant” it makes “Survivor”. Look, Probst, I love you, but this is a step too far. DOING something makes it relevant. TALKING about how relevant it is makes it seem like pandering, and less relevant pandering at that. We didn’t need you to tell us it was relevant. We already knew. Remember that first episode, with me talking about how “Less is More”? Yeah, that’s something that’s still relevant as well.
We sadly don’t get the epic music to plays us out of Tribal Council, but we do get the expected Dean idol play. This has Jamal spooked, and so he plays his idol. Props to him for paying attention, but less props for playing it on Noura. With all that talk of people being out to get you, seems to me the smart thing would have been to play it on himself. I’d be wrong, however, as Jack is targeted for being a threat. Not the move I expected, and not the one I think is the smartest. That said, while losing any of the targets tonight would have been a hard blow, I do think Jack is at least the least interesting of the three. Jamal is a complex character who brings a lot of drama, and Dean at least has the “Detective Dean” persona to lean back on. Jack, while a nice guy and intelligent, brought little to the table. He’s sort of a less athletic Joe Anglim (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). A nice, inoffensive guy who brings little else to the table.
After a few rocky episodes, this show is back in gear! This episode not only built on past storylines, but set the stage for new ones as well, what with the Missy/Lauren and Dean/Kellee bonds. Plus, some people noticed that Dean played his idol tonight rather than the previous Tribal Council. Will this overly complex plan bite Kellee in the butt? I don’t know, but I can’t wait to find out in the merge next week!
I wonder if CBS will compensate me for a new tv…
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 