The only way this blog can really start off is with an apology. As you might expect, it’s for the unexpected lateness of this blog. As my frequent readers will know, I pride myself on my punctuality with these posts, so this one being later than usual is somewhat starting. Sad to say, I’m feeling a bit under the weather, and so don’t think I can really do the blog in full at my usual time. I’ll admit, it’s pretty pathetic to say “I’m feeling too ill to do a blog.”, but it does take a lot of brainpower, and I just don’t have that right now. I’ll write as much as I can before I have to crash, and I’ll be sure to make a note of where I have to break for the evening, to give you an idea of where my thoughts may be slightly skewed. I also need to apologize for something else that’s quickly become a staple of the blog this season:
MATT’S MESS-UP!
A couple of pretty obvious ones this time. When describing the puzzle of last episode, I mentioned that it was tricky because one had to spell the word “Nutrition” backwards. I was wrong. You had to spell “Nourishment” backwards, which I would say is even harder and more obscure than “Nutrition”, so kudos there. just a slip of synapses, I guess. My other fault is in how fast I went through the last Tribal Council. Not to say that I really skipped over the strategic points, but I failed to acknowledge the awesomeness that was the shot of Spencer’s silhouette when voting. That shot sent chills down my spine. They need to do shots like that more often.
Certainly Orkun wishes they had some shots as they return from Tribal Council. There’s been very little celebrating at the expense of others this season (one of the reasons I think it’s a cut above most other seasons), but here things go a bit in that direction. Nothing overly much, but the return to camp seems more jovial than usual. Though that may be because, as Kelley correctly points out, they now all have a decent shot at winning immunity.
Not all is at peace, though. Tasha got a mystery vote last night, and it’s quickly figured out that it was Keith. Speculation from the outside was that Keith knew about the vote, but didn’t want to vote out his friend St. Joe, and so threw a vote Tasha’s way. At worst, just a sentimental move, but at best, a pretty subtle way to win over jury votes. I’ll admit, even I bought into this. I’m not the biggest Keith fan in the world, but I’d say he’s capable of at least THAT much strategic thought. I mean, he’s not Ralph Kaiser (“Survivor Redemption Island”) or anything. Yep, I was all prepared to give Keith credit here. Too bad he completely throws that out the window, wondering why he wasn’t let into the loop. He doesn’t seem too hurt about it, but it’s a shame to see that no, Keith really is that out of it.
Though, perhaps Keith’s lack of hurt is because Tasha is siphoning it all. Tasha is EXTREMELY upset that Keith voted for her, to the point of wanting to vote Keith out next. I can’t criticize this move too much, since it DOES fit in with the women’s alliance, which I said before is probably the better way for Tasha to go at this point. However, Tasha, despite arguably being better at challenges than anyone left (as far as track record goes), Keith is nowhere near as big of a threat as Jeremy or Spencer are, by virtue of not being able to really put a coherent strategy together. I’m not saying Tasha should take a throwaway vote lying down, but this seems a bit extreme. This is what I mean when I say she’s kind of Andrew Savage (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) lite. She doesn’t go in for personal attacks against people who DARE to move against her, but she’s not very quiet about it. Better to play things subtly and close to the chest in these scenarios, rather than go on the warpath against your betrayer. Take a lesson from the book of Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”), and wait for the proper time for your revenge, rather than seek it immediately.
Speaking of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, all three people voted on from that season are still around! Remember that? Jeremy, Kelley, and Keith sure do! In fact, they’re shouting it in front of everybody! If that doesn’t pile on the “Royally Screwed” for one of the three (presumably Keith), I don’t know what does. Still, even if it amounts to nothing (which is what will happen), it does bring up a good point. I’m normally not one for talking about preseason talk from the contestants outside of my “Cast Assessment” blogs, but it bears mentioning here. One of the big themes a lot of people talked about preseason was “Splitting up the ‘Survivor Cagayan’ group.” After all, while fractious, they did have four people, more than any other season, and could form a secret voting block. However, in targeting the “Cagayan 4”, people may have neglected the “San Juan del Sur 3” Almost as many people, and with less bad blood between them than those from “Survivor Cagayan”. Given Jeremy’s “Anti-Girl Alliance” talk, I doubt that’s what’s actually happening, but it’s something to consider.
After more of the aforementioned “Anti-Girl Alliance” talk between Jeremy and Spencer, we head to our reward challenge, courtesy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Everyone has to unwind some rope from a frame, being tied to the end of said rope. Once they believe they’ve unwound enough rope, they must construct and cross a bridge before using beanbags to knock blocks off of a table. The first person to clear their table wins a trip to the temple where we had our show opener, as well as a blessing from the monks, and a feast. Pretty sweet reward, all things considered, and not a half-bad challenge to boot. Sure, I think the block-knocking thing is pretty lame, and I do wish the bridge was a puzzle bridge rather than sticking generic sticks in generic slots, but I like the mental element with unspooling the rope. Not to say that it’s a particularly hard thing to do (unless you’re Abi-Maria), but there’s an element of timing to it. You want to leave as quickly as you can, so as to get a lead on your opponents, but not so early that you don’t have enough rope, and lose time needing to unspool more. It’s an interesting element, and one that saves this challenge for me.
Keith won the challenge on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, and history repeats here as he wins it again. Unlike some, however, I don’t think this is a result of Keith’s impressive physical strength. Keith’s pretty decent in that area, to be sure, and he was one of the frontrunners, but it’s not as though he had a commanding lead the entire time. Keith was just the only one who made absolutely sure he had enough rope before heading out. Still impressive, just in a different way than you might think.
Keith gets to take two people with him on his reward, and he picks Kelley and Spencer, which I really can’t argue with. Keith’s not really in a position to curry favor with one alliance or another, so might as well take a key player in both and remove suspicion of alliance forming. Not that this strategy works, but the theory behind it is good. Keith’s justification, however, is that Kelley took him on reward last time, so he’s returning the favor (fair), and that, somehow, Spencer’s loved one gave him less that Jeremy’s or Tasha’s, which I would say isn’t fair. I’m not a huge fan of putting value judgements on how important a loved one is, nor am I a fan of it here, though I cut Keith a bit of slack since unlike some, I don’t think it comes from a place of malice. Kelley passes it off as an example of “Keith Logic”, and frankly I’m surprised that doesn’t become a hashtag.
Despite Keith picking people you’d think would get rid of alliance-forming suspicion, their names still get thrown around back at camp, mostly because Tasha is still on the warpath. The fair point is also brought up that with St. Joe out of the mix, Keith is now a threat to win challenges. Tasha’s the ringleader, of course, and Kimmi and Abi-Maria are definitely on board, Abi-Maria relishing in the villainousness of it all. Jeremy’s definitely open to the idea, but everyone can tell he’s a little reluctant. Jeremy thinks, not unfairly, that Keith may be a number in his corner, and he’s still scared of a women’s alliance. Not an unreasonable fear, especially since I’d say Keith might be a good asset for Jeremy, but Jeremy goes a bit far in saying that he wishes he HADN’T voted St. Joe out last time. I get that the women’s alliance is a threat, but that’s too big a sacrifice to cripple a potential counter-alliance. Tasha, for her part, is bound and determined that Keith go, saying that it’s her time to make a move, and that if Jeremy won’t go, she’ll find others to go with instead. You know, I’m starting to see a pattern developing on this season. Everyone wants to make “their move”, something they can point to and say that they and only they engineered. Granted, that’s true on every season, but it seems really pronounced here. This fixed focus on one’s move, though, is also setting up the downfall of a lot of people. People need to make moves for themselves, sure, but they need to wait for the right time for it to happen organically. Those who try and force a move on a situation where it’s not needed often meet their downfall as a result, or have their time game significantly shorted because of it, Stephen’s feud against St. Joe being a prime example. Granted, time’s running out to make a move, and while Tasha doesn’t exactly have NO resume, she doesn’t really have anything that stands out (unless you count voting Kass out).
At first, it looks like we won’t get any strategy on this reward, but just a lot of nice, non-gameplay scenes. True, Spencer’s talk about how far he’s come is a bit forced, but it’s a lot of fun just to watch the ceremony, and hear Keith make “Indiana Jones” quips. But eventually, the game must come again. Sure enough, the three discuss a final three possibility, which again, isn’t terrible. Keith probably can’t win in that scenario, but then again, I have a hard time imagining a scenario this season in which Keith CAN win, so I suppose it’s as good as any. I don’t see Spencer or Kelley wanting to go up against the other, since I’d say those two have the strongest resumes out of anyone there, but on the other hand, they talk about adding Abi-Maria as the fourth, and since she’s the only person less likely to win than Keith, it’s possible either Spencer or Kelley plans to betray the other. One could argue that Spencer’s choice means very little, since he’s in a similar situation if he goes with Jeremy, Tasha, and Kimmi, with Jeremy being someone Spencer probably doesn’t want to face, but each could betray the other and take Tasha and Kimmi to the end, except that I’d say Tasha and Kimmi overall have better resumes than either Keith or Abi-Maria, so there’s still some incentive for the reward final three scenario. The three debate who to get out first, Jeremy being their primary target, but all agree that that’s what will be expected, in terms of idol playing. Guess Jeremy wasn’t so good at hiding that idol after all. The three correctly surmise that, after Jeremy, Tasha is the biggest threat, and so agree to go for her first. Not a bad move, except for the fact that after getting rid of Tasha, Jeremy still has a Tribal Council in which he can play his idol, and now he’s tipped off to the fact that you’re against him. Better to take the risk and blindside him now, I say. Can’t fault their logic, though. Much though I hate to make positive comparisons to “Survivor Fiji”, it’s very reminiscent of the brilliant move of getting out Edgardo of the four horsemen, since no one would see it coming.
Remember all that single-mindedness I was talking about from Tasha earlier? Yeah, that’s out the window. Tasha realizes that Abi-Maria might not be the strongest ally, and so perhaps it’s in their best interest to get her out, since she’s a potential swing vote. I’m all for flexibility in the game, and I’m certainly grateful that Tasha’s confessionals aren’t going to be super repetitive this episode, but her choices make no sense. She swings from the second worst person to vote out to the worst person to vote out, targeting people who really shouldn’t be targets. I’ll go into her logic later, as it DOES have consistence, but suffice to say, it’s not what I would call a good strategy to win the game. It makes for exciting tv, and I’m happy to see it, but in addition to voting out goats, Tasha is now destroying the possibility of a women’s alliance, which, need I reiterate, is her best option.
We WOULD head over to the immunity challenge, but I’m tired, and need to head over to bed. Here endeth the part of the blog written immediately after the episode. See you guys tomorrow (or today, as the case may be).
So, as I was saying, we head off to our promised immunity challenge. It’s a pretty standard water obstacle course, with people running across various platforms and beams to retrieve something (in this case a key), out in the water, then swim back and solve a puzzle, with the first puzzle solved winning immunity. The idea of a water obstacle course is pretty old by “Survivor” standards. Elements of it can be traced all the way back to “Survivor Borneo”. Personally, though, I consider “Survivor Vanuatu” the birthplace of this particular variation on the challenge, since that was the season to have climbing over local boats as the obstacle. This seems strange, as no one from “Survivor Vanuatu” was on this season, or even eligible to be on this season. So, how does this relate to “Second Chances”? the answer comes in the puzzle. During the first episode of “Survivor Worlds Apart”, each tribe had a choice to solve one of three puzzles. The one with the fewest pieces, basically a tangram puzzle that would make a square when solved, was not chosen. It gets reused here, giving IT its second chance, as Probst puts it. Cheesy? Yes, absolutely, but cheesy in that good, “Survivor” kind of way. If you’re going to bring back something that never got used or finished (like the blindfolded ball-rolling challenge on “Survivor Samoa” that got finished only on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”), it’s best to do it on one of these all-star type seasons. It just feels right that “Survivor” history should be rounded out with “Survivor” alums.
It becomes clear pretty quickly that this isn’t going to be much of a contest for immunity, at least for the most. Jeremy and Spencer are far and away the heads of the pack, and really the only ones in the running for immunity. Spencer is slightly faster than Jeremy, but also a bit more reckless, and so takes a couple of pretty hard falls that are painful just to watch. Jeremy, in contrast, takes things very steadily, and never slips up once. As a result, he gets back to his puzzle station with a slight lead over Spencer, not that it matters. Jeremy’s a great guy in many ways, but he’s never shown himself as a puzzle champ. Spencer, while maybe not a puzzle CHAMP, is still pretty damn good at the things, and solves his puzzle in about 15 seconds, according to Probst. I still like this challenge, but I’ll admit a lot of the tension was gone from it. Part of that was due to just how far ahead Jeremy and Spencer were, but I also suspect that the producers were counting on the puzzle to make things exciting. When Spencer just whizzes through it, it loses a little something. Props to Spencer, as it’s not an easy puzzle, but it kind of leaves the challenge feeling a back lacking. Maybe if they’d had to run the course multiple times and retrieves multiple keys, it might have been something greater. Then again, given what we’re about to discuss, it’s probably for the best that they DIDN’T do that.
Everybody was behind Jeremy and Spencer to some degree, but Tasha was WAY behind. If this strikes you as odd, since she’s usually something of a force in challenges, well, you’d be correct. My read on the situation is that after 35 days out there, Tasha is tired, and not the best swimmer even at full strength, and this challenge required a lot of swimming. When she had FINALLY retrieved her key, and started backstroking back, she didn’t have the energy to keep her head fully above the water. Heck, in the show itself, you could SEE water lapping into her open mouth. It’s not the sort of thing that bothers me, but even I’LL admit that I’m inhumanly comfortable with feeling like I’m drowning. Tasha, for all her strengths, is only human, and so quite logically panics. For the second episode in a row, props must be given to the “Survivor” medical team, specifically their diving team. 31 seasons in, and we’ve never actually had to see the diving team rescue somebody, or even glimpsed them in the background of a challenge. They must have been there, since they got out to Tasha very quickly, but you never see them. The hid well, and performed their job to perfection. Once Tasha is out of the water, though, the tension leaves. Unlike Joe’s medical issues last episode, where it wasn’t 100% certain what was going on, leaving the possibility of an evacuation open. In Tasha’s case, it was very clear that she was just weakened and panicked. Once she was up on a platform, out of the water, it was pretty clear that she was out of danger, leaving Probst’s serious line of questioning a bit pointless. Everyone rallies around Tasha, and Probst sends them back to camp, leaving Keith to quip about how good it is that they’re sending Tasha home that night, since she’s so weak.
Back at camp, Tasha tries to walk it off, and gets some encouragement from Jeremy. Her absence allows Spencer, Keith, and Kelley to come together again, though, and try and bring Abi-Maria on board with them. As Spencer puts it, he’d be confident in this alliance if their fourth member was someone stable. Their fourth member is Abi-Maria. Enough said. Abi-Maria, for her part, does seem interested in this alliance, particularly since she and Kelley have been tight for a lot of the time in this game, but she herself talks about how she’s the swing vote, and might do something different just to shake things up.
Let us not forget that Abi-Maria is delusional, though. Just when it seems she might be the swing vote, we find out that the swing vote is actually Spencer, a role he should be used to by now. Tasha reasons to him that this season “Deserves a strong final 3” as a thank-you to the fans, as a reasoning why he should stick with the himself-Jeremy-Tasha final three. Now, as a viewer, I very much like this idea. A final three where most everyone has an equal or close-to-equal chance of winning is much more exciting to watch than someone going to the end with a goat or two. That said, speaking as someone who likes this show for the strategy more than anything, this is a STUPID IDEA! Spencer, you’re in one of the best positions to win the game! Don’t potentially jeopardize it for the sake of us! I get that this season honors the fans almost as much as it does the returnees, but that’s no reason to sacrifice your game for us!
Fortunately, as we head off to Tribal Council, I doubt that’ll happen, and I’m now pretty sure that Tasha is going. It just makes more sense strategically, and Spencer is nothing if not strategic. Admittedly, Abi-Maria’s comment about her being in power might be setting up some hubris for her exit, but the storyline of Tasha wanting to make a move and having it backfire on her has pervaded the episode. It makes more sense from both a strategic standpoint and an editing standpoint.
Gone are the early days of this season, when every Tribal Council was exciting. Again, I have to say, this was not the WORST Tribal Council ever, but it just doesn’t stand out. There is a bit where it seems like Keith might make another “Stick to the plan.” gaffe by saying “I think my ‘We’ is gonna win out.”, but this just gets everyone talking about their various “We’s”, and the five-year-old part of me is laughing his butt off. It’s entertaining, but it’s about the only strong part of Tribal Council, and when it’s based on juvenile penis humor, that’s not a good thing. If only we had an unpredictable vote to get to…
Say what you will about this season, but it’s very good at hiding who’s actually going home. I should have followed the hubris, as Abi-Maria leaves the game. She oddly DOES follow through with her threat of breaking away, and votes for Keith. Not the MOST illogical vote, since his name was tossed around earlier in the episode, but it seems weird to me that she’d break away from Kelley like that. The two seemed to be pretty well in cahoots. I’ve made it pretty clear that getting rid of Abi-Maria was a dumb move, so kudos to Tasha for convincing people that it was a good move to make. That woman can SELL a poor argument. As to whether I’m sorry to see Abi-Maria go, the answer is NOT AT ALL! Granted, she was the center of drama early on, but a decent amount of that drama was cringe-inducing. Even if you liked it, she quieted down after the merge, with the exception of dubbing Stephen “Poop-pants” for very little reason, so really, not much of a loss. Exciting for the viewers, but a dumb move for pretty much everyone involved.
This episode is a tough nut to crack. I can hardly call it a BAD episode, since we did get a decent amount of strategic talk and an unpredictable sendoff. Yet I still feel lukewarm about it. I guess because a lot of episodes this season have been MAJORLY exciting, one that’s only just standard exciting at best seems like a bit of a letdown. I will say, while this is still an excellent season, I feel like it might have peaked too early. Again, not that the episodes haven’t been good in their own right, just that all the most amazing stuff happened early on in the season. It can still make a comeback, especially since the finale looks exciting. A six-person final episode. Never seen that before. Presumably they’ll add in an extra Tribal Council, or just have a double Tribal Council, to get us down to a final three. But who can win in any final three scenario? time for my ordering of people from easiest win to toughest win. Usually I go from “guaranteed win if they make the end” to “no chance at winning”, but with Abi-Maria gone, I’d say everyone has some chance of winning. A slim chance, maybe, but a chance. And who’s the top of the heap?
KELLEY: Should she get to the end, I’m pretty sure she wins. It’s a tough call between her and the person I’d say is second most likely to win, but I think Kelley has the edge in this case. Of all the people left, her game has been the most up-front, and she’s got a great underdog story. She was in the minority a lot of the time, yet lasted a good long while. She never made the merge on her original season, yet she beat out people who did. Maybe I’m just biased since she’s a Kelley who’s not, as I once put it, “Bland as beige wallpaper”, but I feel like she could be a good winner, and has a great shot at it if she gets to the end. Her getting to the end is the biggest obstacle, but if she gets there, watch out!
SPENCER: If this list factored in who is most LIKELY to get to the end, Spencer is on top, no question. He’s got connections with everybody, is constantly the swing vote for alliances, there’s really no reason why he can’t make the end. And, unless he’s up against Kelley, he probably wins. He’s also got something of an underdog story with the “No firm alliance” thing and early votes against him. I give Kelley the edge because I feel like Spencer’s game is more subtle. Not that that’s a bad thing, but it means there’s less he can point to that was exclusively his move. Against anyone else, he’s fine. Against Kelley, it might cost him.
JEREMY: While his win is maybe not as assured as either Spencers or Kelleys in the final three, Jeremy still has a decent shot. He led a lot of big votes, can point to his “human shields” strategy as a way he improved his game, and has a decent sob story for the end. It’s probably best for him if he DOESN’T take Spencer or Kelley to the end, but even then, he still has a slim chance.
TASHA: I feel bad putting Tasha this low, since I don’t think she’s played a bad game (vindictiveness against Kass aside). The trouble is that, while Tasha has done an excellent job of making herself a part of every conversation, she, like Spencer, really has no moves she can point to as her own, and that may cost her. Not that her resume is bad, just that it’s a lot weaker that most everybody else’s.
KEITH: Like the order of the top two people, the order of the bottom two people are kind of a toss-up. Neither of them can really say they’ve done much of ANYTHING in this game, and so probably will have a hard time winning. I give Keith the edge because, unlike some people I could name, I could see him playing the “I was playing stupid.” card and actually have it be believed. Plus, he has a couple challenge wins to his name, which may count for something.
KIMMI: Kimmi has played a pretty fantastic social game overall, but like Tasha and Spencer, I think it may be too subtle to give her an easy win. I doubt she’s out of the running entirely, but she’s a long-shot. She really has no moves to her name, and can only hope for a bitter jury to give the win to her over someone else. I almost put her above Keith, since I really don’t see either of them winning. I only put her lower because of the edit. With how little screen time she’s gotten overall this season, she’s not winning it. Shame, because I do like her.
Well, the finale’s being built up big, and it’s not too late for the end game to be as exciting as the early game. Here’s hoping!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 
Leave a comment