Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode Several: Wrapped Up With A Nice Little Bow

Inanimate objects, done properly, can become a character in and of themselves.  On “Survivor” immunity idols are the most common example of this, but sometimes people can create their own.  And we may just have one of those tonight.  That was a MAGNIFICENT Buff Bow on Kenzie’s head!  Even with all the emotion at her Tribal Council, I think it stole the show.  

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  While the tribe was unified against Moriah last episode, there was still the stray Venus vote to consider.  Consider it Venus does, and given how she is, she naturally jumps to the conclusion that it was cast by Soda.  Understandable, given how the pair have been interacting these past few days, but wrong.  Soda of course denies this, but this only convinces Venus further.  Everyone, Tevin in particular, is prepared to sit back and watch the fireworks.  

Charlie, then, is the rain that cancels the fireworks.  He comes clean to Venus that he was the stray vote against her.  I have to ask… WHY?  How does this benefit Charlie in any way?  Venus didn’t even suspect him, and this was tearing Nami, the biggest threat to Siga, apart.  Now she knows you moved against her, and Venus does not strike me as the type to forgive and forget.  Even in a best-case scenario, where she decides she has bigger fish to fry and doesn’t immediately try and get you out, say goodbye to that jury vote.  

So egregious is this error that Coach Q comes out again.  He sits Charlie down on the beach (with Tim also there), and just reads him the riot act about how he screwed up a good position.  Not saying Q is wrong, but unsolicited advice is not going to win hearts and minds.  Charlie defuses the situation by “apologizing”, which at least shuts Q up, but this has turned him against Q.  I don’t agree with his conclusion that “Q is running the show” based on this; at worst Q is being a bit too blunt.  It DOES show, however, that Q doesn’t respect your game, and that alone is a reason to work against him.  Point being, Q may be right about what is and isn’t a smart move, but he’s not winning friends with his style of interaction.  

After our intro, we get another scene at night, though this one a bit less confrontational.  Ben wakes up in the middle of a panic attack, and worried about how he’ll be perceived as a result.  Luckily Kenzie is used to this sort of thing, other members of her family having been through similar experiences, so she is able to assist him and comfort him.  She admits that this is something beyond the game, and she’s doing it out of general, human kindness.  Honestly, it’s a very effective scene.  A nice bit of calm before the strategizing storm, and one that didn’t need to be bolstered by turning it into a sob story.  Oddly, the understatement makes the moment more powerful, and frankly it’s just a highlight of the episode.  Well done, show.  

Because we have to stick with the stupid “Split Tribal” twist, we can’t have any more camp scenes for now.  Instead we have to cut straight to our Immunity Challenge, which is the “Stand on the Triangles” one first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  A challenge so boring and predictable I’m more fascinated by them using the buff design along the side of the platform in the water.  Nice touch.  

This is also where we get our first look at the Immunity Idol for this season, at least the individual one.  Solid design, in my opinion.  Reminiscent of the one from “Survivor Cambodia”, with red as a main color and a similar outline.  Being made of beads and adding geckos does help make it unique.  Maybe not an idol for the history books, but a solid entry regardless.  

I will say what this challenge lacks in interest in and of itself, it makes up for in banter.  After Probst notes that the calmer conditions compared to the last time this was run (“Survivor 42”), Q suggests playing the “Alphabet Game” with city names, without actually explaining what the Alphabet Game actually is.  A fact that comes back to bite him in the butt when basically everyone starts violating what Q perceives as the rules.  Hunter starts off with “A for Atlanta”, but then Ben gets knocked out due to not saying that again, despite saying both “Boston” and “Baltimore”.  Liz does get the C in there, but again fails to name the previous names, despite Q saying this must be done.  It’s capped off with Charlie saying he gets it, only to make the same mistake as Liz.  Pretty sure that last one, at least, was intentional.  Seems like too good an opportunity for Charlie to tweak Q’s nose in a joking manner for him not to take it.  

Q, incidentally, is the first one out of this challenge, followed shortly by Ben from his team, leaving Kenzie, Tiffany, Hunter, and Tim up on their side.  Soda falls at about the same time, but she’s on the opposite team, leaving Charlie, Maria, Tevin, Venus, and Liz up for them.  Despite being sidelined, Q still keeps up a good bit of commentary.  He explains to Probst how “Black folks ask what time it is.”, which Probst takes in stride.  When Q goes silent, he explains that he was taught to shut up if he’s not in the game.  Evidently unable to stand the silence, Tim pulls a Gabler (“Survivor 43”), and starts shouting out various people the audience doesn’t know during the challenge.  Q mocks him for this, only for Tim to remind him what his dad taught him about shutting up.  It’s honestly the one thing making this challenge fun, and it helps that it’s clearly just the cast having fun with one another, and no one taking the talk too seriously.  Probst even gets in on the fun a bit, reminding us of Jelinsky’s “Several=7” point from earlier in the season.

Eventually the challenge must get serious, though, and everyone transitions to standing on one foot.  Brenda Lowe and Andrea Boehlke can rest easy knowing their impromptu rule on the first run of this challenge remains an official part of it now.  This leads to several dropouts, but Kenzie, despite winning immunity, drops before either Tevin or Maria.  This means her team will miss out on a reward, and go to Tribal Council first, meaning whoever leaves misses the jury.  As for Tevin and Maria, they have a good battle, with Tevin even having a spectacular comeback from nearly falling over.  IN the end, though, Maria’s lower center of gravity wins the day, and she snags immunity.  

Our teams are sent to separate camps, with the winning six going to the current merge camp.  Here we find out the new tribe is dubbed “Nuinui”.  No real complaints here on that one.  The name is a decent length, and obviously Polynesian in origin (granted Fiji is in MELANESIA, but given they’re part of the same language family, I’ll take it at this point).  That said, all it really makes me want to do is get out my old Bionicle toys again.  

Despite winning, not everyone is happy.  Charlie notes that he’s in an exceptionally precarious spot, being one of only two original Siga on the tribe, and the other having immunity.  He realizes he’s exceptionally vulnerable, a status that Tevin confirms.  Tevin, however, is not content to just let things sit on the obvious target, telling us that he wants to invoke the “First Blindside of the Season”.  Jem might take issue with that characterization, Tevin.  

Over with our losers, Hunter is feeling nervous for similar reasons to Charlie.  He tells us he intents to play his idol tonight, a move I can’t really fault.  True, there is the “Journey 6” alliance he could trust in, but he is the only person without an initial-tribe ally in this group.  Further, he’s a noted physical threat at a rare moment without having immunity, making him a tempting target.  

Certainly Tim thinks so, since he tells Q that Hunter should obviously go.  Q, however, thinks it equally obvious that Ben should go.  After all, Nami is at each other’s throats, and Ben is the only one in this group not part of the “Journey 6”.  Ok, Kenzie technically isn’t either, but she’s immune, and Q is unlikely to go against an original Yanu at this juncture.  A member of the “Journey 6”, however?  He’ll turn on them in a heartbeat, now insisting it has to be Tim for his wishy-washy-ness.  A bit early to be turning on him, but also a bit early to be giving my thoughts on the targeting on these tribes.  

I will say, however, that I don’t buy for one minute that Q intentionally lost that challenge.  It was one that didn’t cover his skill set, and he lied to save face.  Understandable, but either Q’s a far better actor than I credit him, or he’s lying to the camera to save face.  

For now, let’s return to our winners, who have the more intriguing strategy.  Tevin is not the only one who wants to “Make a move”.  Soda is ready to get Venus out, and tries to enlist Charlie and Maria to that end, once everyone is done “napping” on the beach.  Understandable, given their tiff, but also a bad move for Soda.  She’s already kind of screwed since she’s not going to the end with Vcnus, and therefore if she IS in the end, Venus is guaranteed to be on the jury.  Guess who Venus will never vote for in a million years?  Even so, better to have her on the jury later than earlier, lest she poison the whole bunch against you.  

This, however, is not enough of a blindside for Tevin, who marshals Liz, along with a presumed Charlie and Maria, to get out Soda.  He considers her, fairly, to be a social threat.  Can’t deny the logic there.  Not content with this, however, Soda approaches Maria and Charlie individually to blindside Tevin.  Charlie seems on board, at least in part because he prefers ANY plan that doesn’t involve him getting voted out, but Maria is a bit more hesitant.  She wants to keep her options open with the “Journey 6”, and Tevin is a part of that.  Hence, conflict, even if getting out Tevin would be the thing to break Nami apart completely.  

Things get worse for Venus when, having already come on strong with Maria, she pushes her again.  Maria, pretty reasonably, gives Venus advice on how to come at people.  She sympathizes with Venus due to her age, but notes that people don’t like being told what to do.  This advice goes in one ear and out the other, Venus chalking it up to their age disparity.  Way to not work on yourself, Venus.  That said, she does at least tone it back to a vote against Soda, something Charlie and Maria are much more likely to go with.  They confer on the beach, Charlie noting that he’s weirdly safe.  Not sure how much of that is due to his effort as much as Nami being a hot mess, but still, good for him.  

As our targets for this group are now firmly set on either Soda or Venus, time to discuss what the best move is.  Clearly, between these two, it’s Soda.  She’s the more subtle player, and Venus’ presence will continue to make Nami at least seem more fractured (if not actually be more fractured), thus making them seem less threatening.  Further, Venus has so buried herself socially she’s unlikely to win many jury votes, and isn’t much of a challenge threat.  If she gets to the end, well, easier victory for you.  Might as well chop Soda off now.  Not to mention that Venus, if the first juror unanimously, will likely poison the jury against all of you.  Yeah, clearly go for Soda.  

In regards to our other group, there is dissension amongst the ranks.  Kenzie, admittedly, is happy with going for Tim, since her and Ben kind of vibe.  Tiffany less so.  That said, props to Ben for catching that Kenzie was not being 100% up front with him.  I thought Kenzie lied pretty effectively there, but he sussed it right out.  

Tim pitches Hunter to the group, who agree to split votes, but Q turns it on Tim as soon as he leaves.  Tiffany agrees with this, correctly noting that Nami is easy to break up, while Siga is less so.  However, Ben comes across as slightly sketchy when Q talks to him, leading to Q turning it back on Ben.  This makes Tiffany happy, but not Kenzie, especially since Q seems to waffle back and forth, and doesn’t let them get much of a word in edgewise.  

This leads to the promised pair discussing Q “running the show”, and predictably, the preview played this up.  Don’t misunderstand, there is a legit issue between them and Q, but it was built up to go somewhere tonight.  Had Charlie been in this group I might have bought it, but no.  Instead, they just note that Q is a bit inflexible, and also a bit prone to changing his mind.  All fair criticisms.  I might sum it up in that Q is a very binary player.  You’re either fully in agreement with him, or fully disagree with him.  Not much room for nuance in the world of Q.  On the one hand, if you’re truly his ally, this can be a great thing!  After all, as long as you don’t piss him off, you can guarantee he’ll stick with you.  That said, as we saw with Ben, staying on his good side is not so easy.  It’s not clear what exactly Ben did to turn Q against him from their conversation, but it flipped Q’s mind completely.  That can be a problem, so it’s understandable that they would consider moving against him.  But, as they note, it’s probably too early.  

With Hunter not much in contention, the debate is between Tim and Ben, and once again the answer of who should go is clear.  Ben is a social threat no one there apart from Tim has really connected with.  Tim is a much more predictable player, and keeping him around prevents the “Journey 6”, which Q at least is pushing hard, from fracturing.  Ben is the clear better choice here.  

We’re also left with little doubt that Ben will go, since he gets all the emotional content at Tribal.  He goes over his panic attack again, and everyone gives him sympathy, while also noting there are human moments outside the game.  Q, for his part, is also courteous, giving Kenzie major props for winning immunity.  The real star of the show, however, is Kenzie’s giant bow buff.  An hour after the episode aired, and I still love that thing.  

For as much as I hate the “Split Tribal” twist at this juncture, the show got a good draw here.  You can have the emotional climax first with this group, then the strategic one with the next.  Not intentional on their part, obviously, but a good way to balance it out, and not feel like we’re waiting for one group or the other to go.  Going to commercial in the middle before an obvious boot like this is a bit much, but hey, the other group has enough mystery to keep us happy regardless.  

Yet, once again, the show gets me.  Tim goes, which I absolutely DID NOT expect.  Good trick, editors.  The bad decision for basically everyone but Kenzie, but definitely an audience blindside.  That said, from a character standpoint, much the better decision.  Ben may not do it for me as a character, but he’s more interesting than Tim, who basically brought nothing.  Seems like a nice enough guy, but just not good tv, sadly.  I will, however, give Hunter some praise for not playing his idol.  Granted, he probably had a lot of trust in what Q was saying, so it’s not the weirdest decision ever, but still, he had valid reasons to believe he would be targeted.  Good on him for saving his idol.  

As mentioned, our second Tribal Council is the strategic climax of the episode.  Logically, this makes for less exciting banter at Tribal, with it being mostly the stuff you’d expect.  Charlie bringing up his Shot in the Dark.  Venus and Soda bringing up the tribe divisions.  We do get a couple of unusual moments, like Liz catching flak for not bringing her bag.  I do have to deduct points on Maria, however, for using a metaphor where one wasn’t asked for.  Don’t encourage Probst, Maria.  

Oddly, despite this being the more unpredictable vote, it’s also the more underwhelming one.  The group does the smart thing and votes Soda out.  She’s a bit teary about the whole thing, but thankfully she at least gets to sit on the jury.  I’m not the biggest fan of Venus, but I am glad she stayed, if only for the drama she brings.  If Ponderosa videos were still a thing, I’d want her on the jury as early as possible, but as is?  I’m fine with this.  

For the episode as a whole, it weirdly fails kind of in spite of itself.  The humor was on point, the editing top-notch.  We had good mystery, and a lot of good character bits.  Yet I confess myself, underwhelmed.  I don’t hate this episode, but it just kind of came and went with little fanfare for me.  I think it’s just a victim of how much had to be stuffed in.  With this many people, and two Tribal Councils, it just feels bloated.  The superiority of the previous factors helps make up for it, but there’s only so much you can do with this format.  Yet another reason to vary things up, show.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 3: “Things That Don’t Rock” for $300

Catchphrases.  I don’t need to explain to you what they are.  They’ve been a staple of tv since basically tv began.  Yet overall, not that common on “Survivor”.  Fair share of memorable quotes, and a few things from Probst that could be catchphrases (“Got nothing for ya”, “The tribe has spoken.”, etc.), but overall not as much of a thing as in other shows.  As Ben demonstrates tonight, that’s probably because trying to create a catchphrase for yourself on “Survivor” sounds really freaking forced!  Granted, in Ben’s case it’s so forced it comes back around to be funny.  But you get my point, and I’m getting ahead of myself.  

Bhanu is, understandably, a bit shaken up about Tribal Council last time.  After all, Jess wrote his name down, and if her idol had been real, he would have been gone.  Luckily for him it was fake, though he is curious to know how that happened.  He gets let in on the plan, and how the idol was made, but everyone else is largely dismissive of his concerns, saying he should just be happy to be hear.  Bhanu’s unreliability and incapacity to keep secrets are reiterated, he channels the spirit of Jelinsky by quoting “Know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em”, and cue intro.  

Following our awesome intro, we go back to Yanu to reiterate just how much they suck!  Why, Kenzie tells us they suck so much that they don’t even sleep in their shelter, opting for a nearby cave instead.  Hey, I guess it worked for Chuay Gahn on “Survivor Thailand”.  I mean, the shelter itself kind of sucked due to the latrine situation, but in terms of tribe success post-merge, not a bad trajectory to be following.  

Kenzie reiterates that they must be one of the most pathetic tribes in recent history.  Well, Kenzie, I’ve got good news for you!  You can’t know this at time of filming, but last season had a tribe that was even MORE pathetic than you!  You all are a hot mess, don’t get me wrong, but at least none of you quit!  Yet!  As such, you look slightly less pathetic in comparison.  Good job!… In timing your season to come after the last one!

Bhanu, still desperate to save himself, tries to talk to Kenzie about getting something going.  Kenzie, while friendly in tone, just asks him to come up with a plan, making it clear that she’s not that interested in working with Bhanu.  She says, rightly, in confessional that while he’s a nice guy, he can’t keep a secret, and so is just not cut out for the game.  A fair assessment, and one Q would not necessarily disagree with.  Still, Q sees some value in Bhanu, so their talk goes somewhat better.  Granted, this talk does involve Q comparing Bhanu to Phillip Sheppard (“Survivor Redemption Island”) and himself to Boston Rob (too many seasons to name at this point, but most relevant here is “Survivor Redemption Island”).  Probably not a comparison one would be flattered by.  

But hey, at least it means someone wants to keep Bhanu around!  Bhanu reacts to this news… with paranoia.  He’s not sure if this is just Q pulling the wool over his eyes to avoid a Shot in the Dark.  Granted, a pretty reasonable concern, but at this point, Bhanu, can’t look the proverbial gift horse in the proverbial mouth.  

As a side note, when Bhanu talks about Kenzie, he compares her to a “Mermaid-Dragon”, meaning beautiful and charming in the front, deadly in the back.  Not sure he quite nailed the metaphor, but I do know I want Bhanu to read me “The Little Mermaid” now.  No text to follow, just him making up the story based on memory alone.  I feel like it would be awesome!

Morning at Siga brings a group idol hunt, something that basically everyone mocks.  Moriah talks about how everyone keeps one eye for an idol, and one eye out for a “bulge”… Meaning an idol in a pocket, get your minds out of the gutter!  Charlie is particularly dismissive of the idea, saying he wants the idol for himself.  Naturally, such arrogance means he must get the “dodo” edit of being right by the idol and not seeing it!  

In fairness to Charlie, this one is particularly deviously hidden.  While plainly visible in a broken stump of a tree branch, it’s only visible from the camera angle we get, which is facing the path.  Looking FROM said path, you’d basically never see it.  As such, props to Jem for both finding it, and for not cluing Charlie in, since he was right beside her!

Jam states that she hopes the Beware Advantage is “A simple process”.  Famous last words.  As you’d expect, Jem’s note is similar to the ones found by Tiffany and Randen before now.  Dig beneath where you found the Beware Advantage, what this actually is.  Jem does so, though credit her for actually WAITING to do so unlike those other two.  Sure enough, she finds a box that says she doesn’t get another clue until her tribe loses, and until then, she has no vote.  Interestingly, however, Jem adds another bit, which says that additional rules would follow if she reaches the merge having never lost immunity. 

Um, WHAT?  I’m assuming that was part of EVERYONE’s rules, so why are we just hearing about it now?  I get not doing it in Tiffany’s, since the premiere had a lot to get through, and Yanu lost anyway almost immediately after, but why not read it with Randen’s?  You’re telling me that in the thinly-stretched two hour episode we had last week, there wasn’t room for Randen to say an extra SENTENCE to clarify this?  

Look, the reason I’m mad is not because of “production lying to us” or anything like that.  Nor am I mad about the rule; it makes sense.  But what this does is imply that it wasn’t RELEVANT UNTIL Jem got the idol, implying Siga never goes to Tribal pre-merge.  Or, in the event of a swap, that Jem never goes.  Way to suck out what little tension this season has so far, show!  Should have just made it something read with all finds, so that it gave nothing away.  

Still, good for Yanu.  More incentive for someone to throw a challenge.  About the only way they’re going to win one at this point.  

Well, I tell a lie.  There IS another plausible way for Yanu to win, but that’s getting a bit ahead.  Still, we do need to go to the tribe that could plausibly lose naturally, Nami.  Not that we see it at the start.  Indeed, things are all good at Nami, with Hunter working on building a bed; Tevin in a funny aside asking him to make a Temperpedic.  Liz dubs Hunter “Survivor MacGyver”, which may just be a coincidence, but I’m choosing to believe it’s an intentional shout to to Stephen Fishbach’s turn on “Survivor Cambodia”, since that season and player are both amongst my favorites.  She’s not alone in praising Hunter, with basically the whole tribe getting in on the act.  

Yes, everyone loves Hunter!  Even Hunter loves Hunter, giving us his backstory on choosing to forego a full ride scholarship to medical school to teach in his hometown.  I’d say this one hits pretty well, but that’s mostly because they mix in a good bit of comedy with the heartfelt-ness of it.  While it’s cool that Hunter decided to take a lesser-paying job that he’s passionate about and all, it’s also funny to see JUST HOW MANY “Survivor” puzzles he has lying around his home.  And not 3-D printed ones that I could tell; dude seems to have carved these himself.  Wouldn’t be too weird, but again, the sheer quantity alone is pretty funny.  

Did I say everyone loves Hunter?  I mean MOST everyone loves Hunter.  To his credit, while the dude is the center of his tribe socially (Soda and Tevin only seem more so because their personalities are louder, and thus they make better narrators), basically no one has caught on, which speaks to his smarts.  No one, with one exception.  

Yes Venus, in a good perceptive moment, has made note of Hunter’s standing, and so goes out to actively target him.  She goes to Randen to warn him of this threat, something Randen seems clueless on.  That said, while Venus HAS definitely made an excellent observation here, she’s really bad at pitching it.  The main thing she says is “Just use your eyes, and you’ll see.”  Um, Venus?  Randen DID use his eyes, and he missed it completely!  You might need some, I don’t know, EVIDENCE to back up your claim, if people can’t see it for themselves?  

Ok, ok, I’m being a bit harsh here.  Venus DOES point out his being central to the tribe dynamics, which IS the sort of evidence she should bring up.  That said, her initial dismissive “pitch” coupled with Randen still not seeming to get it at the end of the scene, is grounds for some light internet mockery nonetheless, in my opinion.  

Enough dilly-dallying, on to why Nami might lose.  Randen has woken up having slept funny on the bamboo, and now he’s got numbness in his right arm and leg, along with some stiffness in his neck.  Medical does end up coming out to take a look, but as no medevac was advertised prior to the season, he’s naturally cleared to stay in the game.  The doctor says it’s most likely a pinched nerve that should go away on his own.  Still, Randen’s not going to be much help in challenges, but hey, if it goes away on its own, then he should be fine down the road.  All he needs is for there not to be a challenge today!

Oh look!  A challenge in the very next scene!  Who could have guessed?

After that obvious yet hilarious joke, we examine the challenge itself, which is not that great.  Tribes race from the water to shore over a series of obstacles, including over a rolling log.  Once on shore, they dig up sandbags which they must then land on a series of disks high in the air.  First two to do so win immunity and varying amounts of shelter-improving equipment.  Standard stuff by this point.  I bring up the description only because you may remember the ending segment of this challenge as the one where JD choked on “Survivor 41”.  If that doesn’t ring a bell, it’s the one where he said “Money”, and then choked.  That fun memory earns the challenge a few points, but overall, otherwise forgettable.  

Randen naturally sits out the challenge, due to his injury, and his contributions to Nami show up FAST!  Despite Yanu still not having fire, and literally having to walk from exhaustion at one point during the challenge, Nami is still in last up to the beach.  Siga has the firm lead up to that point, notably having the innovative strategy of having the rest of the tribe roll the log in the correct direction with the hands to help ease the journey of the person going over it.  Nami is also similarly innovative, even in last, with Hunter grabbing onto Tevin’s legs as he goes over, thus pulling the both of them over.  

That said, tossing sandbags onto small disks is a tricky thing to do, especially since, as Q demonstrates, vibrations can knock them off.  Understandably difficult, but hey, I can’t knock any of these people.  It’s not like any of them have practiced this before…

CRASH!

COACH: I have.  

ME: Coach!  What the hell?  You’re not even on this season!

COACH: Hey, you were talking about tossing things!  How could you do so without my years of expertise in the area of tossing things?

ME: Very easily, and without a hole in my wall?

COACH: Ah, get over it, you wimp.  Besides, you were CLEARLY leading up to a point with that line, and what else could it be, other than me?

ME: Hunter.

COACH: What?

ME: Yeah, Hunter.  When we had his flashback, amongst the items he’d crafted for challenges was a bunch of sandbags, implying he’d done this sort of thing.  It’s actually some pretty subtle foreshadowing, and I wanted to give production their due on that one.  

COACH: But he doesn’t do it better than me, right?

ME: Given that he brought his tribe back from last place to first with seemingly a minimal number of tosses, and your team didn’t even win the equivalent challenge on “Survivor Tocantins”, I’d say he’s objectively better than you.  

COACH:… If you’ll excuse me, I have a dragon to slay.  

(COACH exits, brandishing a katana from nowhere.)

Yep, Hunter pulled it back, thereby sucking most of the tension out of the challenge.  There was no puzzle, and Nami was severely weakened, so Yanu had a shot of beating them.  Siga?  Minimal tribe dynamics, and while there is a CHANCE Jem asked them to throw, we never saw her do it.  

So yeah, Yanu loses, but to their credit, it was closer than any of their previous losses.  Really, the problem seemed to be that they didn’t have an ace on the sandbag throwing.  How the other teams seemed to do it was to find one person who had the right touch, and let them get into a rhythm.  Hunter was that for Nami, and after some false starts, Charlie ended up being that for Siga.  Q and Tiffany both landed their fair share of bags, but both kept switching out, thus preventing either of them for getting into a rhythm.  Not knocking them at all; for all my jokes about Coach and Hunter, this is not something easily prepared for.  You kind of have to learn it in the moment, and Charlie just learned it faster.  

Along with first place, Nami gets to pick who goes on a journey, thus explaining why this episode had a challenge at the 30-minute mark.  They pick Liz from themselves, along with Ben from Siga and Bhanu from Yanu.  I’m a little surprised at the Liz pick, since she seems to have been somewhat on the outside of that tribe, but can’t knock the other two.  

Before checking out our journey, we check in with Yanu.  Everyone’s a bit bummed, but Q is beating himself up, even dancing around asking to be voted out.  He puts most of the blame for the challenge loss on himself, comparing it to his time as a high school athlete where he blew an important game, and had to see it in the headlines of his local paper afterward.  Kind of a flashback, but kind of not.  We get no photos, just some background music implying a large crowd over Q’s narration.  Oddly, somehow more effective.  Yeah, it’s not a tear-jerker, but Q is clearly beat up, and you can sympathize with the guy taking so much of the responsibility for the tribe on his shoulders.  

That said, strategically, WHAT ARE YOU THINKING Q!  Even if the challenge loss was all your fault (and while he was a contributing factor, it being all on him is debatable), you DON’T say that to everyone, especially when they weren’t blaming you!  It’s just bad strategy.  Ugh, maybe we WILL get some quits after all.  

Now, I’m not trying to be too hard on the guy here.  Like I said, I can understand the frustration with the situation.  That said, he does go a bit over-the-top with the anguish (“Why does my life have to be the hardest path?” is a bit much), and this will make some stuff he says very ironic later.  Even Tiffany, his own ally, kind of thinks less of him for not handling the loss well.  

About the only fortunate thing for Q in this situation is that everyone seems dead-set on voting out Bhanu at this point.  They’re especially worried that he’s spilling everything to the other tribes while on the journey.  

Cut to said journey, and yeah, their fears are 100% justified.  Bhanu breaks down, and Liz and Ben do their best to provide some comfort.  It’s a genuinely nice scene, and when Bhanu talks about being accused of being too emotional, Ben is sure to tell that “That Does Not Rock”.  And yeah, emotions have a place in the game, but Bhanu clearly can’t control them even when the situation demands it, as evidenced by the aforementioned spilling of all tribe dynamics.  

To be fair to Bhanu, however, even if he weren’t being emotional, spilling the tea right now is kind of a smart move for him.  You already think you’re going to be voted out, and with good reason, so why not take revenge on those planning to vote you out anyway?  In the unlikely event you DO survive the night, you’ll come across as more open to the remaining players, and thus they’ll want to work with you more.  Granted, you’d probably piss off those on your remaining tribe, but again, they’re against you anyway, this won’t change your fate in and of itself.  

Speaking of fate and rocks, that’s the deal with today’s journey!  Everyone draws a rock from a bag.  Blue rock means you go on to risk your vote in a challenge, white rock means you go back empty-handed.  No lost vote, thankfully, but nothing extra either.  Much as I said I didn’t like the little game in the premiere, I don’t like full randomness either.  Players need SOME agency beyond challenge ability on these journeys, and this takes it away from them.  At the very least, those who draw the blue rock should be able to walk away after seeing the challenge.  

Bhanu actually wants the white rock, not trusting his challenge ability and preferring to rely on his Shot in the Dark.  Given what we’ve seen, I can’t blame him.  Unfortunately, Bhanu’s bad luck continues, as it’s Liz who draws the white rock.  Then, he and Ben are faced with building a cube puzzle in a tight time limit, something neither of them is particularly keen on.  Ben even informs us that puzzles fall into the category of “Things That Do Not Rock”.  Keep saying that Ben; I’m sure it’ll catch on.  

Both lose the challenge, and everyone heads back to camp.  The word of the day at both Nami and Siga is Bhanu’s intel on the inner workings of Yanu, which everyone praises Liz and Ben for getting, despite the fact neither of them did much beyond just let Bhanu talk.  Ben, however, lies a little bit, saying he won’t find out if he won the game or not until Tribal Council.  Frankly, this lie seems pointless to me.  I get not wanting to give away that you’ve lost your vote, since Ben think’s it’s a 3-3 split between men and women right now.  Probably want to let your allies know that in private so they can prepare for one less vote on their side.  But this lie seems oddly suspicious.  The reason not to tell people about losing your vote, as Ben says, is because it makes you a target.  However, acting suspicious about something this simple… Also makes you a target.  Not seeing the upside to this lie over just saying you gained nothing and didn’t lose your vote, is what I’m saying.  That’s plausible.  It’s what happened to Liz, after all.  

As to Bhanu… Well, give him credit, the man learned not to say everything at once!  He gives a brief overview of everything, but doesn’t admit to losing his vote, nor how much information he gave the other tribe.  Granted, he does admit to losing his vote to Q, but that makes sense, since Q is the one guy who’s seemed to want to work with him left, and hey, might as well try everything to save yourself.  

Q, however, is not convinced Bhanu should go.  Yep, the reasonable suspicion of Kenzie is still around.  Q says that Bhanu, while a nice guy, needs someone to lead him in this game.  You know, the guy who was talking about falling on his sword for a minor setback earlier!  Yeah, that’s definitely the guy I want coaching me through this game!  Look, I get it, Q overall is a team player, and most of the time, yeah, I’d want him in my corner building me up.  But for him to say THIS about himself, in literally the same episode he was effectively talking about QUITTING?  That’s so hypocritical, it wraps back around to being kind of hilarious.  

Whatever, Q’s hypocrisy aside, he goes and pitches the idea to Tiffany, bringing up that Bhanu will be a number for them that they can control, whereas Kenzie has a mind of her own.  As Tiffany says, this is a valid point, and is much better misdirection than the “Q falls on his sword” stuff from earlier.  Why did we need that, again?  That said, Tiffany admits she’s still leaning Bhanu for his overall messy gameplay, which I’d say is the sensible choice.  Look, Kenzie is a threat, no doubt about it, but Bhanu, while he can be lead, is messy in gameplay.  He’s shown time and again he has little to no filter, and that’s just too big a liability to drag to the end, even as a goat.  Moreover, although neither of them know this, there will be an ample target on Kenzie later.  You see, when Bhanu talked about the tribe dynamics to Liz and Ben, he built up Kenzie in particular as the “mastermind”, meaning there will be PLENTY of people willing to take out Kenzie come a swap or a merge.  Not knocking them for not bringing this up; just saying in the aggregate, it’s another point in the “Vote off Bhanu” column.  

But all of that stuff?  Doesn’t matter!  With about 10 minutes left in the episode, we cut over to Nami, which can only mean one thing.  Yes, sadly, Randen’s side has not gotten better, and after consulting with a neurological specialist, it’s been decided that he needs to be pulled from the game.  An understandable decision, but I am sorry to see Randen go.  I won’t act like he was my favorite or anything, but he was either going to upend the whole tribe dynamic, or overplay and go out in a blaze of glory.  Either way, would have been fun to watch.  

And he didn’t even get to pass along his beware advantage to Venus, as it’s non-transferrable.  I get not being able to do that in-game (since that would render losing one’s vote somewhat moot), but I feel like there should be an exception if you’re pulled from the game.  After all, then you’re doing it to have one final lasting impact on the game, not to save your own skin.  Have a heart, production.  Thankfully Randen is confirmed to be ok in his final words, and hopefully he’ll get to fulfill his wish to play again someday.

After there’s commiseration at Nami, there’s cheering at Yanu.  Kind of insensitive cheering, to be honest.  Kenzie does pay lip service to Randen, but mostly they’re just happy they don’t have to go to Tribal Council.  Similar to Rupert being somewhat insensitive to Jenna’s quit on “Survivor All-Stars”, it’s not a good look, but you get where he’s coming from.  

And thus, Bhanu’s episode arc of trying everything and getting basically nowhere, only to be saved at the last minute by something out of his control, is complete.  A decent arc, but still kind of a disappointing episode.  In fairness to the show, however, there wasn’t much they could do this time.  I appreciate them not making it obvious that Randen was going until the very end, but at the same time, it made everything before seem kind of pointless.  There were good moments in this episode, but Randen needing to leave when he did just took the proverbial fire out of everything.  Comparisons will doubtless be made to Matthew’s exit on “Survivor 44”, but there it was the culmination of the pre-merge arc following his invention of the Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM).  As such, it felt a lot more satisfying, despite being the obvious outcome.  Here, it’s just kind of a thing that happened in this episode that derailed all the other drama.  Again, not that production could have done anything about that.  They worked with what they have, and to be fair, the emotional beats generally did hit home, Q’s hypocrisy aside.  Sadly, however, no matter how hard you try, sometimes you just can’t make a silk purse from a sow’s ear.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 10: Cry Me A River

Not going to beat around the bush: This was a great episode.  It did a whole host of things really well, and these will be discussed as they come up.  That said, I don’t think anyone would disagree that the highlight of this episode is how well it conveyed the intense emotions on display.  The mirror neurons were a-firing full tilt.  Let’s discuss how they come up.  

A unified vote after Tribal Council means things are usually subdued, and that’s largely the case here.  That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to show, however.  Jake expresses relief, both that he survived once again, and that he “Has friends in the game”.  The former I get, but I feel like the latter is still overselling his game a bit.  MAYBE he can count Bruce as a friend, but everyone else is just keeping him around as fodder, not because they like him.  Drew inadvertently confirms this point in confessional, noting that the Reba 4 are still strong, and looking to get everyone else out (save possibly Emily).  Bruce in particular is their proverbial Moby Dick, and he needs to either win immunity or play his idol.  

Daylight brings the first of our emotions.  Julie had a particularly rough night for sleep, partially alleviated by a neck rub from Austin, but she’s still in a bit of a state.  The game is getting to her, not so much in terms of the brutal conditions (though those are obviously a factor), but in terms of how tough it is.  Julie is getting close with a bunch of people, and thus voting them out is tougher than she thought.  Moreover, she feels like people take it more personally when she votes them out, citing Kellie and Kendra as taking it hard.  This she blames on the “Mama J” level, as a betrayal from a mother feels more personal to people.  Ah, the curse of the “Mama” label, and why most players should try and avoid it like the plague.  There’s a double-standard to it.  If she plays a good strategic game, she betrayed her label, and gets few to no votes.  If she lives up to the label, she did nothing to get to the end of the game (in the eyes of the jury), and gets few to not votes.  

Still, Julie is not alone in this.  Evidently trying to course-correct from dialing up the “douchebag” levels last episode, Drew sympathizes, and has a good cry with her as well.  And not in.a performative way either.  Dude comes across as genuine.  It’s a sweet moment, to say the least.  Julie ends by questioning how you can get close to people, and then vote them off.  

The answer to that comes in the form of Emily.  Wisely realizing that the Reba 4 are likely to stick together from her conversation with Drew and Austin last episode, Emily has gotten to talking to Bruce and Katurah about taking out one of said Reba 4.  A smart move on her part, since she needs to split them up sooner rather than later to have a chance at sitting at the end with those she can beat.  That said, can we take a moment to appreciate how much skill this must have taken?  Since the beginning of the seasons, one of the major storylines has been the “Katurah/Bruce Vendetta”.  If there’s one thing you can count on, it’s that the pair will not work together.  Yet here they are, talking strategy like anyone else, presumably because of Emily!  You know, the person who called out Bruce minute one?  Someone he was basically never going to listen to under most circumstances?  Is there anything this woman can’t do?  Besides math puzzles, I mean.

Emily does acknowledge that the major issue with trying to rally the underdogs to flip the game is that none of them chore together as a whole.  This point is inadvertently underscored when we see the next bit of conversation between Katurah and Bruce, sans Emily.  All this time, everyone, including the audience, has been under the assumption that Bruce has an idol to play, so will be safe no matter what.  But, in the era of flashbacks, nothing is certain!  Bruce, you see, was afraid of the “Knowledge is Power”, and so gave his idol to Kellie.  You know, the night she was voted out.  So yeah, dude’s in an even weaker position than before.  

The above is what I WOULD be saying, but having established that formula as a possibility, the editing team is now doing a brilliant job of subverting expectations.  You see, Bruce did NOT, in fact, do this.  His idol is still very much there, and everyone’s assumptions correct.  But Bruce wants people to THINK that’s what he did, so they’ll forgo splitting the votes and pile on him, thus allowing his idol to negate enough votes to get out a Reba.  He asks how his acting is, and I’d say it’s pretty good.  It certainly fools everyone he tells it to.  

Yes, overall, a decent plan.  But, since it’s Bruce who suggested it, Katurah hates it.  Ok, ok, I’m doing Katurah a disservice now.  She’s really more upset that Bruce lied to her in the first place, which is more understandable.  That said, Katurah, it doesn’t make the PLAN bad, it just makes Bruce bad at pitching it.  Really, I think Bruce’s mistake here was seeming to wait at least a little while between practicing the lie, then telling Katurah it was a lie.  I understand his logic of wanting her honest reaction, but if you’re going to do that, the very next sentence out of your mouth needs to be “Pretty good pitch, huh?” Or something similar.  Make it a “Letting someone in on it” thing, rather than “You’re a dummy I can test stuff on.” Thing.  Bob on “Survivor Gabon” is probably the model you want to use here.  When he came up with the “I have the idol Marcus threw in the ocean” lie, he DID practice on Corinne first, but also immediately told her about it, drawing her into the idea.  By waiting, even if just a couple of minutes, Bruce turns Katurah against the plan.  That said, Katurah doesn’t say anything about it to anyone else just yet, and the pitch to Jake seems to go well, so perhaps there’s a small chance for said plan yet.  

Off to our challenge, which is, you guessed it, obstacle course with a puzzle at the end!  How original.  At least it’s an individual challenge, for once, and the stakes are extremely high.  In addition to the turkey dinner (and I’m amazed that CBS didn’t rearrange their schedule to start the season earlier, so this episode could have aired the day before American Thanksgiving) at The Sanctuary, there’s letters from home.  Combine that with having to pick who goes on reward, and emotions will be high.  Drama awaits.  

Our “puzzle” this time is technically a table maze.  I specify this only because it leads to a small, but hilarious to me, moment.  When most everyone has made it to said maze, Probst specifies that this is a challenge that requires finesse.  We then cut immediately to Jake yeeting his ball out of the maze by jerking the controls too fast.  Now that’s good editing.  

With the physical portion basically not mattering, it comes down to who can master the maze the best.  Austin and Emily are neck-and-neck, but a late choke by Austin, and skill by Emily, nets the latter the win.  Good for her, and I don’t blame her for breaking down into tears here.  If I’d been on Little Lulu for so long, I’d probably go to tears at a win as well.  And it was really sweet how the entire rest of the tribe was supporting her during that.  

I’m less supportive of how Emily does her picks to come along, however.  She gets a total of three, one at a time, taking Julie for her first pick, and Dee for her third.  Neither of these I have a major problem with.  If Austin and Drew won’t move against Dee and Julie, logic dictates that Emily try things in reverse.  Since both are nominally in an alliance with her (assuming she remains grandfathered in with the Reba 4), and Julie in particular had that visibly rough night, these are easily justified.  

No, it’s the second pick of Katurah that I question a bit.  Not so much in making her the choice.  You don’t want to take Bruce as a challenge threat, Jake would just seem weird, and if you want to move against Drew and Austin, picking them is not the way to go.  But making her your second pick, rather than seeming to favor your stated main alliance?  Could come across as suspicious.  Sure enough, Austin notices this, and notes that it could portend something bad for his game, particularly as it was explicitly framed as a “girl’s night” by Emily.  You know, because paranoia about a women’s alliance never screwed over anyone’s game.  

Off to The Sanctuary, and for the most part it’s a touching repeat of the “Girl’s Night” theme.  Emily gets a confidence boost, with everyone there talking about how she’s better than she thinks she is.  Talk does turn to strategy, with all insisting a woman will win this season.  No, the giant flashing “FORESHADOWING” sign is not actually there.  You’re just seeing things.  Then again, the same foreshadowing also seemed to appear on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, and look how that turned out.  When strategy does come up, it’s largely directed against Bruce and Jake, which I can understand in this context.  If the women really do all want to team up and go to the end, any man going is good, and the four can just unite to take out the remaining three, all while keeping up pretenses of the Reba 4 being in power.  The number of idols the men have would be the only concerning factor, but then again, Julie still has one of Austin’s from last episode, as the “Previously On…” segment reminded us, and blindsides can happen.  

Oh, and Katurah spills the beans about Bruce’s idol lie, so that’s out the window now, I suppose.  

And what are our men doing while the women strategize?  A montage of “manly” things, of course.  It’s all set to appropriate montage music, which is funny, but still feels somehow out-of-place on the show.  Something about music that has (English) lyrics just feels wrong to me, no matter how funny.  We do also get some emotion out of them, however.  Drew feels happy to belong with the “Guys”, as opposed to his usual nerdy demeanor.  Notes of Cochran on “Survivor Caramoan” with that confessional.  Austin is our big winner here, going fishing and talking about the thrill of just being in Fiji.  Finally catching some decent-size fish probably helps with that as well.  About the only strategizing is Jake telling Drew Bruce’s lie about his idol, so that’s starting to bear some fruit.  Or it would if Katurah wasn’t burning up that possibility over at The Sanctuary.  

Not to be outdone in the emotion department, the women get to reading the letters from home.  All tear up more than a little bit on reading them, and understandably so.  As I said at the top of the blog, the mirror neurons are a-firing at this.  Only Emily and Katurah really get their letters highlighted in any depth beyond “Here’s a few words, it feels nice.”.  Emily’s leads to brief flashback where we see her and her boyfriend on a hike, as her boyfriend mentioned moving into their mutual house while she’s in Fiji.  See, this is a good flashback.  Brief, but appropriate given the subject matter.  Nice to put a face to the name, you know.  She then goes on to talk about how she hasn’t wanted to get married as she “Didn’t want to be a wife”, but now might be open to the idea, and be more expressive in her love.  Because we’re just outright cribbing the “Spencer-Bot Learns to Feel Love” arc from “Survivor Cambodia” at this point.  

It all works fine, but for my money, even though it gets less time, Katurah’s is the real tear-jerker.  She mentions having cut off contact with her mother a year ago, yet somehow gets a letter from her.  Presumably a fairly nice one, given her reaction.  We don’t get detail beyond that, presumably because the detail behind Katurah’s relationship with her mom is something she wants kept private, which is 100% the correct move.  It could also be more evidence for the “Emily Wins” theory, but for now, I’m inclined to say it’s respect for Katurah’s privacy.  Either way, however, the power of this gesture for Katurah comes through, even with the lack of detail.  

Well-rested, the women return to camp, with Drew eager to get back to strategizing.  He gets Emily to give him the goods, and the truth about Bruce’s idol lie comes out.  This, of course, just has Drew default to the “Split votes between Jake and Bruce” plan.  Emily, however, does inform Jake of this plan, explaining that no one else is giving Jake the time of day right now, and if he is going to be on the jury, she wants him to like her so he’ll vote for her in the end.  Sound reasoning.  This gets Jake to ACTUALLY throw out a name (at Ponderosa, Kellie feels a shudder, and she doesn’t know why), and specifically targets Drew as a bigger threat.  Reasonable, though Emily says that would throw away her game right now, which given how tight she seems with Drew, is also true.  

Word of this then gets back to Drew, and if he isn’t dialing the “douchebag” all the way back up to 11, he’s turning it back from how it’s been so far this episode.  He’s fairly aggressive in confronting Jake, who isn’t very willing to take it.  This culminates in Jake saying the conversation is over, leading to Drew calling him a mobster, with Jake pointing out how he isn’t in control, so how can he be a mobster?  Not the most memorable of fights, but an interesting watch nonetheless.  

I think this fight really highlights a standard I’ve talked about before in “Survivor” fights: Punching Up vs Punching Down.  Are you fighting with someone you have power over, or someone who has power over you?  Changes where the sympathies lie.  Drew has a right to be angry at his name being thrown out.  Even has a right to confront Jake about it if he so desires.  Maybe not be quite so arrogant about it, but a right to do so.  Yet, emotionally, Jake comes across as in the right.  He’s on the bottom, so what choice does he have but to throw out names?  It comes across as though Drew is not being the bigger man, despite having all the power of Jake’s fate right now.  

For another example of this principle, look at the Rupert/Russell fight on “Survivor Heroes vs Villains”.  On paper, both said pretty awful things about the other.  Rupert called Russell a “disgusting human being”, Russell sarcastically called Rupert “The second coming of Christ”, and seriously called him a dumbass.  Debate the points about which is worse all you want, but you come out sympathizing with Rupert.  Why?  Because Russell was in charge of the game, and there’s an emotional incumbency on those with power to be the bigger person in such scenarios, and not proverbially “punch back” (or, at a minimum, be non-confrontational in questioning someone, which is what Drew needed to do in this season).  And need I remind you, Rupert technically STARTED that fight, from what we saw!  That’s the power of your punching direction, baby.  

Off to our immunity challenge, a rarity in that it’s ACTUALLY ORIGINAL for once!  Tribe members lie on a wood slide toward the water, supporting themselves with handles that get smaller and smaller as you go down.  As you’d expect, you must move down periodically.  Pretty standard endurance challenge, and arguably another version of the “Stand on smaller and smaller perches in a frame” challenge first seen on “Survivor Fiji”, but hey, it looks different, and I’ll take what I can get.  

I’d have bet money on a woman’s victory in this challenge.  Less weight to hold up and all.  Probably would have put my money on Julie, since she’s done well in other individual challenges, and was filled up and rested from The Sanctuary.  Yet all four women drop out first.  This does end Bruce’s winning streak, however, though he does manage an impressive second.  Austin takes the victory, and hey, good for him.  At least we can finally try and get Bruce out so we can focus on someone else.  

Really, though, the story of this challenge is Katurah.  She’s out second, but not so much because she physically can’t hang on.  No, Katurah becomes visibly freaked at the idea of landing in the water, and eventually lowers herself to the platform rather than fall in.  A move that surprises even her, as she says she had prepared for water challenges beforehand.  I may be misremembering, but I don’t think Katurah’s particularly been freaked out by any water challenges beforehand, so this does seem somewhat out of left field for the audience as well.  Then again, most of those challenges have been brief swims, with little time to anticipate what’s coming.  My guess is that having nothing but time with her thoughts, Katurah just psyched herself out.  

This psych-out extends to the end of the challenge, where people would normally swim to the boat.  Probst offers to bring the boat up to her instead, and had he just left it there, moment would have been fine.  Raw emotions well-displayed, Probst being professional.  Nothing to complain about there.  But no, Probst has to make it a “Moment” by offering to let her jump in with everyone else.  Probst, buddy.  You were doing so well up until then.  Yes, it would make a great tv moment if Katurah overcomes her fear and jumps in with the others.  But it needs to be HER CHOICE!  You can say you’re not pressuring her all you want; I’m not buying it.  Oh, you might not be CONSCIOUSLY pressuring her, but on some subconscious level, you’re applying the pressure.  Get over yourself, and let the moment play out naturally.  

Jump Katurah does, though, with Emily beside her, several others already in the water, and applause from the tribe as a whole.  Generally a nice moment, even if it was a bit forced by Probst.  

With Bruce not guaranteed immune, Drew and the rest of Reba are happy to finally take a shot at him.  With his “Kellie had the idol” lie now throughly debunked, though, they have no expectation that he’ll go, and have Jake as the backup.  None of them are particularly broken up about this, however, and Julie in particular is happy to see him go.  That vendetta remains strong.  

Of course, “Will Bruce play his idol?” Is hardly the stuff of great drama, particularly as Bruce is clear in confessional that he’ll play his idol.  As such, a valid bit of misdirection is needed.  This comes in the form of a conversation between Katurah and Emily.  Katurah notes that “Everyone loves a Mama”, and pitches to Emily that Julie, nicknamed “Mama J”, can’t be at the end.  See my earlier points about this specific line of reasoning, though I will say that from what we’ve seen, Julie is pretty well-liked, nickname or no, so this isn’t entirely a bad idea.  Emily pitches said idea to Bruce and Jake, both of whom are on-board because, well, both of them are up for elimination otherwise.  

This plan… is a complete lie.  At least on Emily’s part.  Really, she just doesn’t want Bruce to play his idol, both as the bigger threat (both challenge-wise and jury-wise, at least as compared to Jake in the case of the latter), and as a feather in her cap.  After all, literally everyone has resigned themselves to Bruce playing his idol.  If she can pull the wool over his eyes, then she’s arguably responsible for the preferred target going out.  Quite the argument at the end, but not one so visible as to make you a threat before then.  

That said, Emily DOES still believe that Julie is a danger at the end.  She just feels like the shot needs to be guaranteed beforehand, since she’ll hold a grudge otherwise.  Given the Jake vendetta mentioned earlier, a reasonable concern.  There’s benefits to both moves here, I’d say.  Get out Julie, and you weaken the Reba 4 at what might be their last chance to be broken up.  Get out Bruce, and you get out someone with a good sob story who could immunity his way to the end.  Given the general history of returning “captains” on this show, and I can understand not wanting to keep Bruce around.  Jake is definitively the least-good option, as he has no strategic options and is a goat at the end, but the other two have pros and cons.  On the whole, though, if you can get Bruce out, that’s probably best.  It’s not impossible that Reba could break up, particularly with the nebulous women’s alliance, and he’s not someone you want at the end.  

Do we get the drama from Emily?  Well, a bit, but the focus is more on Jake.  You see, in confirming the plan, Bruce tells Jake that the “Kellie had the idol” lie was, well, a lie.  Jake’s a bit upset about this, mainly because it reminds him how out of the loop he is, even with his closest allies.  He has a good cry on the beach, meaning the only people we HAVEN’T seen cry this episode are Austin and Bruce, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they shed some tears that just didn’t make the episode.  Katurah and Bruce give Jake some comfort before Tribal.  It’s a nice scene.  Not much more to say than that.  Emotional, but not melodramatic.  

Sadly, for all the good emotion we get this episode, Tribal Council is fairly underwhelming, particularly compared to what we’ve gotten the past couple episodes.  Nothing particularly bad, but mostly standard double-talk.  About the only misstep I could see was Emily describing tonight as “Shaking up the power dynamics”.  Not the sort of thing you’d expect from a Bruce vote-out, but the sort of thing you would expect if a Reba member, say Julie, was gone.  Couple that with her assurance that she’s not receiving votes tonight, plus her still having Austin’s idol getting a mention despite otherwise being irrelevant, and yeah, seems like they’re going that way.  

Bruce evidently picks up on the cues as well, as he chooses not to play his idol.  I’ll say this for the man: He has balls of steel.  Even with all those cues, I would have played an idol.  Going to expire fairly soon anyway, and might as well have the guarantee.  

Evidently Bruce also has BRAINS of steel, because surprise, it’s him after all.  Can’t say I’m overly sorry.  Not so much because I particularly dislike Bruce, but because he got so much focus from players like Katurah.  I want to see what this group does WITHOUT him there as a distraction.  Plus, while not playing the worst game, it was kind of one-night.  I’ll say this, though: The man goes out with a lot of class.  He thanks the rest of the cast for giving him a good second chance, has some heartfelt final words, and takes getting voted out with an idol in stride.  Very classy.  

Like I said at the top, this is a great episode.  Some new challenges, interesting strategizing, and good misdirection.  There were a lot of little signs that could point to a Julie exit, so the fact that it was just misdirection shows we’re in good hands editing-wise.  But again, emotion is the core.  With one exception, we got strong raw emotion without it feeling forced, and a real sense that, while they may play cutthroat games, this is a good group of people who truly care about each other.  Always nice to see.  

The only concern is that, with a true majority, the Reba 4 could steamroll their way to the end, which would be a pretty bland, unsatisfying conclusion to an otherwise pretty good to great season.  The preview for next episode indicates a breakup.  Will that happen?  I doubt it, but I’ve been wrong before.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 6: One Ring to Rule them All

Three for the Tika Tribe and their birdcage.

Five beads for Karla, and her face of stone.  

Seven for Hantz, who makes all others rage.

One for Jake, on his Boston Throne

In the Land of Fiji, where “Survivor” lies.  

Thank you for letting me have my “nerd out” moment at the start of this blog.  Getting into the episode proper, we naturally start off at Belo, dealing with the fallout from Brando’s exit.  Emily informs us that due to the old Reba being more straightforward with her, she went with them.  Makes sense.  Also, while it wasn’t explicitly brought up, I bet Kendra bringing up the aliens thing again was a factor.  Probably not a deal-breaker on its own, but point in favor of siding with Reba.  

For her part, Kendra takes the blindside fairly well.  She takes in the excuse of avoiding a shot in the dark from Brando, and insists she still wants to work with everyone there.  She even gets the tone of it just right.  Only her eyes give her away.  While her words and tone say “I want to work with you.”, her eyes say “Rot in hell.”  Her ire is understandably predominantly directed at Emily, the one who actually betrayed her.  Kendra is out for revenge, but time will tell when that dish comes up.  

Idols are the order of the day at Lulu.  Now that Kaleb feels like he’s in a decent position, he wants to either have an idol, or know where it is.  To this end, he gets the tribe on a major idol hunt, reasoning that everyone being together will at least give him information.  Not a bad plan, it must be said.  Really, the only risk is that someone subtly finds an idol without your seeing.  Luckily for Kaleb, the person who finds it is Bruce, who is not subtle about basically anything.  Credit to Bruce here: While the idol was in a significant-=looking tree, it was near the roots rather than the branches, and well-camouflaged, so good on him for sussing it out.  

Well, I SAY Bruce found an idol.  In actually he found a Beware Advantage that takes his vote away until he FINDS said idol.  Naturally, with how this season has been playing out, this will be a long scavenger hunt for Bruce, full of many twists and turns… Or it’s just buried in the middle of the shelter.  That works too, I guess.  

Comparative lack of difficulty aside, Bruce’s hunt is not without obstacles.  Namely, Katurah.  While most everyone was there to see Bruce find his idol, she was not, and given how publicly anti-Bruce she’s been, he understandably wants to return the favor.  Unfortunately for him, Katurah quickly returns, so Jake makes a big show of losing his ring, and needing people to help look for it.  I bring the latter point up only because that’s what gives me the excuse to make the “Lord of the Rings” joke earlier.  

But even with Katurah out of the way, there’s another wrinkle for Bruce: A boat telling them they have 10 minutes to get their stuff together for a merge.  Or, I guess, “mergatory” in the new parlance.  Look, I’m just gonna keep calling it the “merge”, ok?  Easier to type, and with everyone left voting in one group, it effectively is, buffs or no buffs.  So, now Bruce has a deadline of 10 minutes.  Luckily for him, the idol is not buried particularly deep, and so he is successful.  Good for him, though I feel his worry may be overblown.  Usually if there’s a “no vote until you find the idol” clause, it expires at the merge, so maybe if Bruce had read things more closely, he might have been fine.  Yes, missing out on an idol would suck, but at least he’d have his vote back.  We also see nothing about Bruce needing to sacrifice his vote to extend his idol’s lifespan, and we don’t see him give up his vote this episode.  Idols found later don’t have the same sacrifices, I guess, but that just seems imbalanced overall.  

Everyone comes together on the old Reba beach, meaning, as far as we know, the idol that was presumably on Belo was never found, unless they’re saving a flashback for REALLY late in the season.  Definitely unusual if so.  

More than idols, social awkwardness is the elephant in the room which must be addressed.  Specifically between Emily and Bruce, due to the whole “Former calling the latter out on the mat at the marooning” thing.  Emily apologizes, and Bruce insists that it’s water under the bridge, at least to each other’s faces.  Privately, Bruce admits that he still wants Emily out, while Emily notes that while the two will be polite, they probably can’t trust each other or work together.  Good for camp civility, but doesn’t change much about each other’s strategic prospects.  

Strategy gets largely put on hold, however, as everyone sizes each other up, and sets about increasing the size of the shelter.  A task ultimately made more difficult by a torrential rainstorm, which pretty much everyone kvetches about.  Everyone except Sifu, who says this is what he’s here for.  Now, I’m all for trying to keep an upbeat attitude in difficult circumstances, but Sifu, you can afford to read the room and tone it down a bit.  Shows what I know, however, as it evidently works.  Everyone has an impromptu jam session, with the spotlight being stolen by a dancing stickbug.  This, however, annoys Drew, who wants the strategy to get moving.  Dude, even as someone who’s a big strategy nut, patience.  It’s a big group; it’ll happen eventually.  

After our commercial, the first bit of strategy comes from Kaleb and Emily.  Unsurprisingly, the pair still want to work together.  Understandable, given that they’ve been tested the most, and each has saved the other.  Understandable they’d have an investment they wouldn’t want to throw away very quickly.  Kaleb talks about how much Emily’s grown in the game, which makes me very concerned for her longevity tonight, so the quicker we move on to the next topic, the better.  Emily and Kaleb compare notes, noting that they each have connections with one of the other two tribes (Kaleb with Belo, Emily with Reba).  For now, Reba seems like the better option, as they seem to want to get rid of J. Maya.  

Don’t believe me?  Don’t worry, Reba will tell you themselves!  Sifu talks about it on the belief that J. Maya voted for him.  Dee and Drew talk about it for her being on the outs.  Austin talks about it because he’s still pissed about the sandwich.  Dude, get over it!  Don’t get me wrong, Austin has incentive to get rid of J. Maya to power up the amulet alone, not to mention how it implies she doesn’t respect his wishes in the game.  But no, Austin simply brings up nothing but the sandwich.  IT’S A SANDWICH!  However bad you wanted it, however badly you’re starving, it is not worth holding this much of a grudge over!  

With Emily pretty firmly in with Reba, it’s Kaleb who goes to ask them what they want to do.  All old Reba emphatically tell him it’s J. Maya, indicating that it’s legit, and most likely spelling doom for her.  With merges as large as these, the easy consensus boot is usually the one to go.  Plus, there’s upsides for pretty much everyone to getting rid of J. Maya.  For old Belo, it weakens the old Reba, who are their overall greatest threat at this point.  For Kaleb and Emily, it saves them from being the easy consensus boot, and since neither of them have played with her at this point, they have no real reason to keep her.  Even those members of Reba who don’t have at least a perceived reason to distrust J. Maya (Sifu and Austin) have an upside to getting rid of her.  By showing a willingness to sacrifice one of their own, while keeping their core four intact, they make themselves less threatening, thus helping negate the possibility that Emily and Kaleb join up with old Belo in order to prevent them getting too powerful.  Since J. Maya was never really in their core group anyway, they lose very little, and potentially gain much.  

Still, an alternative target is most likely needed, and Bruce quickly comes up with one.  Bruce may not be the most subtle player I’ve ever seen, but let it not be said that he’s imperceptive.  When no one is talking to him, but he sees everyone else talking, this leads him to the conclusion that he’s on the outs, not helped by him having difficulty keeping his leadership tendencies under control.  This leads to an exchange with Kendra where he mispronounces the word “pariah”, and Kendra gets confused.  At first I thought it was just due to the mispronunciation, but even when Bruce corrects himself, Kendra STILL doesn’t know the word.  Look, I get that it’s not the most common word, but the fact that Kendra is 29 and has yet to encounter that word makes me die a little inside.  Regardless, both Bruce and Kendra note that Kaleb is playing very well socially, and conspire to perhaps make him the target.  Kendra in particular is gung-ho about this.  Gone is the talk of getting Emily out.  Perhaps that’s just on the back-burner, or getting out Kaleb is revenge by proxy.  If the latter, however, it shows that Kaleb makes a good shield for Emily, which is only a plus for her.  

Remember me just saying Bruce was a perceptive player?  Yeah, “perceptive” in this case does not equate to “good”.  Rather than just conspire behind his back, Bruce puts Kaleb on notice that he doesn’t think that he’s with Belo, and that he notices Kaleb talking to everyone.  Kaleb describes it as an encounter with an angry cop, which I have to say, is a bit hyperbolic.  Unsubtle as it may be, Bruce’s tone was, at worst, “stern” from what we were shown.  Yes, Kaleb should be wary of Bruce, as we see when he puts some feelers out regarding targeting Bruce, but that description was maybe a bit much.  Though maybe Canadian cops are politer than American cops.  

CHALLENGE TIME!  I’m surprised I’m using the all-caps for this one, since it looked pretty dull on the fly-over, but the specifics grew on me.  Divided into two teams of six, red and blue, players make their way through a mud crawl, then push a heavy cart collecting sandbags along the way.  They then use said sandbags to build a way up to a rope net, go over it to retrieve a bag of keys, then go down again, only to go up another wall with the aid of a giant ball.  From there, two tribe members solve a puzzle which creates a rebus puzzle two OTHER tribe members have to solve.  As you’d expect for this point in the game, the winning six get immunity and awesome-looking orange merge buffs, while the remainder are vulnerable at Tribal Council.  Like I said, pretty standard obstacle course, where it’s the little touches that make this an awesome challenge.  Using the sandbags as a platform, rather than just as weight, is great utilization.  I also find it hilarious that they brought out the giant balls again, only to just use them as a platform, rather than rolling them at all.  And the double-puzzle, in theory, is brilliant.  Helps to equalize the challenge even more, and makes it harder for one good puzzle-person to just sweep through for their team, since they can’t directly work on both.  

That said, I do have to note that the latter point is purely a theoretical “good”.  The issue here is that the rebus puzzle was too easy.  As we’ll see, the tribe that was behind did a good job catching up, but the puzzle was just breezed through such that it didn’t matter.  Now, it could be that the winning team just had the better puzzle people in general, but it could also be that the second puzzle was just so easy as to be pretty irrelevant.  Since it lets me be a snarky jerk on the internet, I’m going with the second option.  

A random rock draw gives us the red team, consisting of Kaleb, Emily, Jake, Kellie, Dee, and J. Maya.  Our blue team, meanwhile, is Bruce, Kendra, Julie, Austin, Drew, and Sifu.  Decently even teams overall, with both having some good brawn and some good puzzle people.  I’d give the edge to blue team for having slightly bigger physical guns, but with how often challenges come down to puzzles (when the puzzles aren’t so easy a literal four year old could figure them out), I could see this one going either way.  That said, when Katurah, the only person not randomly drawn to a team, bets on the blue team for herself, I understand the logic.  Plus, her ally Kendra is on there, so it makes strategic sense as well.  

Katurah makes the right decision, as it turns out.  It’s not a blowout, but J. Maya puts red behind during the mud crawl, and they never fully recover.  Again, a tougher puzzle might have helped with that.  Probst sends our losers off to wash off, while our winners go to “The Sanctuary”, where Probst tells us “Good Things Happen”.  Probst, stop trying to make that a catchphrase.  It’s not going to work.  

I did not notice any sandwiches at the feast, but the vibes are so good, we are spared a presumed Austin rant over his ongoing lack of a sandwich.  Strategic talk soon starts up as well, so we are spared another Drew rant as well.  J. Maya is once again put out as a consensus boot, with Sifu being the main pusher.  Julie backs it up, even confirming the “J voted for Sifu” story, mostly to protect her number one ally Dee from suspicion there.  Gotta say, nice subtle strategic play from Julie there.  Bruce, however, is not off his “Get rid of Kaleb” idea, and Kendra is there to back him up.  Only Katurah seems to push back on the idea, pitching an Emily boot instead.  Privately, Katurah admits that it’s weird that her allies, who’d largely wanted to work with Kaleb, now actively target him.  

For their part, the losers of the challenge quickly land on J. Maya as the boot as well.  J. Maya pitches Kaleb in return, but no one left seems to really want to go for it, and our winners getting back and being on board as well only seems to seal the deal.  It’s only Bruce talking to Drew that seems to change things.  Drew admits the only reason he didn’t target Kaleb was because he thought it would “Bring the wrath of Belo down upon him.”  With that fear out of the way, and Kaleb being an admitted social, physical, and strategic threat, Drew now sets about swaying everyone over to the Kaleb plan.  Pretty much all of Reba is willing to get on board.  They may not trust J. Maya, but at least they have a pre-existing relationship with her.  None of them have really known Kaleb outside of his one-time trip to their camp, so he’s the easiest one to cut loose.  Guess that “Goodwill Advantage” didn’t buy much, huh?

Only Emily and Katurah seem to dissent on the plan, and neither of them have much power to influence things the other way.  Katurah can’t stick her neck out against these numbers, and while Emily does put a token effort into defending Kaleb, saying he’ll be loyal if saved, there’s not much she can do.  Even she admits she’ll probably have to vote Kaleb if push comes to shove.  She is at least kind enough to clue Kaleb in.  He sets about to scrambling, but he’s clearly desperate, and admits he doesn’t think it’ll work very well.  He DOES give us a great episode title in the process, however, declaring “I’m not Batman… I’m the Canadian.”  Hilarious.  

For how much of a threat he’s rightly built up to be, I actually think sticking with the J. Maya plan would be the better one overall.  Kaleb is a big threat, but voting him out will be a major shake-up int he dynamics, creating a lot of chaos.  J. Maya is a nice consensus boot who can slip below the radar very easily, and like I said before, pretty much everyone has some incentive to get rid of her.  Now, granted, you don’t want Kaleb getting to the end.  He beats literally everyone left in the game, and I’d be willing to say he beats everyone already voted out, if there’s another “Edge of Extinction” thing going on we aren’t privy to.  

But the thing about Kaleb is that he’s a VISIBLE threat.  He’s not like a Jesse (“Survivor 43”) where no one even thinks about him until almost too late.  Everyone knows Kaleb has to go, so he effectively works as a shield for everybody.  The shield has to be discarded at some point, but Final 13 feels a tad too early in my book.  About the only major risk to keeping Kaleb around is that he goes on an immunity tear, and this was your only chance.  Not impossible, but given the number of other good challenge competitors still around, unlikely.  I should also say that getting rid of Kaleb is hardly a STUPID move for anyone.  It’s another “No bad choice” situation.  I just think J. Maya is the slightly better choice.  

Initially, Tribal Council is nothing to write home about.  Less because things are particularly dull, but more because there’s just too many people.  I stand behind these large merges being difficult to follow, and while the relatively simple dynamics of this season, coupled with longer episodes, make this the most comprehensible merge in a LONG time, Tribal Council still feels too full.  Merge at 10 at the earliest, guys.  

All that changes when it becomes clear that Kaleb is the target.  I say this not because anyone gives anything away, but because Kaleb himself starts openly talking strategy, and advocating that J. Maya go.  This is clearly a desperate play a smart player like Kaleb would not make if he were not certain he was on the block tonight.  He attempts to argue the “J. Maya lowers Reba’s threat level” specifically to Dee and Julie, but this kind of backfires on it.  Dee, fairly, sees it as her name being thrown out as a threat, and now doesn’t want to work with Kaleb as much.  

With the writing on the wall, Kaleb does the only thing he can do without an idol: Play his shot in the dark.  Now, I’m not one to say “Survivor” is rigged, but if I were, this would be Exhibit A as to why it is.  A 1/6 shot, and Kaleb wins it?!  One of your big characters on the season, with the alternative target being a player who seems nice enough, but ultimately hasn’t impacted much?  Yeah, if I’m a producer, I want Kaleb to stick around as well.  And MAN, this is an epic moment, as literally everyone, even Emily, voted for Kaleb.  It’s “Wentworth will not count” from “Survivor Cambodia” all over again, and it is glorious once again!  He smashes her record, negating a total of 11 votes against him (Austin didn’t vote in order to lengthen his idol’s duration, which with these numbers is understandable), though admittedly they were negated with a shot in the dark rather than an idol, so both records probably stand independently.  

A revote at which no more shots in the dark can be played now imminent, whispering ensues, and for once, a relatively justified example.  J. Maya pushes extremely hard for Emily, while Emily tries to argue loyalty and going back to the original plan.  Both plausible, but in the end, the power of a consensus boot wins out.  J. Maya is sent home by every vote save her own, and I’m both sorry and not sorry.  She was easily the least-exciting character of those up on the chopping block tonight (ok, maybe Kellie had less personality, but no one seriously targeted her this episode, so I don’t count her), so if one of those had to go home, best it be her.  That said, while she was no genius, she wasn’t terrible at strategy, and I have a soft spot for her early attempted code-breaking of the tribe sign.  Hopefully you get a second chance someday, J. Maya.  

Honestly, this is probably the best merge we’ve had in an exceptionally long time.  Like I said, a combination of more time and simple tribe dynamics made this easier to follow, and more fun as a result.  Awesome as Kaleb’s successful shot in the dark was, it was just icing on the cake to seeing these groups slam together, and hash out a target.  Well done, show.  

I’ll sign off with this thought: Much as Emily’s growth has been shown and talked about, the climax of this episode is what really showed it.  When given the choice between her and someone relatively inoffensive, she was unanimously saved.  That’s impressive right there.  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 2: Praise Be

My brothers and sisters in “Survivor”, this is a glorious day!  The blessings of Burnett be upon us!  Long have we wandered through the desert of non-musicality!  Long have we be mistreated at the hands of the editors, denying us even the barest on montages!  I will admit, even my own faith began to falter that we would ever see the promised land again.  But I come before you, my faith restored!  Praise be upon us, the intro is back!

But before I can commence the sermon… Erm, “Blog”, we must start with another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

With an increased watch-time comes an increased chance for missing stuff, I suppose, though these are really two minor points more for jokes than anything.  Firstly, fans of his might have noted that I neglected to mention Drew at all last episode.  That’s because he’s largely forgettable in my eyes (at least in the first episode), though I do try and cover everything relevant.  Drew was part of the opening confessional montage, but was kind of generic there, so I don’t fault myself there.  More egregious, however, is my neglecting to mention the confessional he gets in the middle of the episode.  There he talks about the different sides of his personality, specifically the nerdy introvert side, and the partying frat boy side.  He hopes he can meet somewhere in the middle and find success.  All pretty standard, and again, almost would not be worth mentioning.  However, rather that describe them as “sides” or “aspects”, despite that being what he means, he refers to them as separate personalities altogether, bringing to mind Cydney Gillon of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, who said much the same thing.  I’d laugh at Drew for this slip-up, but it’s pretty obvious what he actually means, and hey, Cydney is hardly a bad player to model oneself after.  

The other was merely me not mentioning Hannah’s parting words as she walked away from Probst, noting that if there was an “Edge of Extinction” twist, she would not be going.  This proves that, even as a quitter, we can respect Hannah.  Hating on “Edge of Extinction”, both the season and the twist, are by now a time-honored tradition of this blog.  

After a “Previously On” segment that I’m surprised they brought back, but doesn’t really impact things, Hannah’s quit is the talk of Little Lulu, Sean (yes, I’m sure there’s a “Sean” on this team) in particular being blindsided by the move.  This leaves everyone a little shaken up, and all respectfully take the appropriate time to mourn her.  

Once the mourning period is over, however?  Talk then turns to the fallout from the tribe now being who it is.  Hannah was clearly not going to be the one to go, so it must have been someone else.  The editing, as well as exit interviews, indicates that it would have been Emily, and this episode itself will later confirm this would be the case.  Now, Emily may lack many, MANY social graces, but even she could see that writing on the wall, and beings an apology tour.  She attempts to justify herself as saying whatever she could since she was the target, which given the evidence MAY be true, though to be fair that doesn’t explain her actions towards Bruce, or trying to throw Kaleb and Sabiyah under the bus when they were away doing Sweat or Savvy, but for specifically her words at Tribal Council, it may be true.  

Unfortunately for Emily, basically no one is buying it.  Least of all Sabiyah, the person most offended by Emily’s words at Tribal Council.  Emily then makes the classic mistake of compounding her bungled apology by getting defensive when Sabiyah tries to end it early, basically saying “We each feel how we feel.”  An understandable gut reaction, but by no means the smart move for Emily here.  She eventually gets a clue, though she needs to check in with the rest of her tribe for confirmation.  Sabiyah, for her part, stews on the beach, and doesn’t know how she and Emily can continue to coexist.  I’m sure there’s no ironic outcome based around that confessional coming up whatsoever.  

Then we get the intro.  The glorious, glorious intro.  Maybe it’s because it’s been gone for so long, but this one felt better than a lot of modern ones.  More dynamic shots, and while the theme is a remix of old ones (Amazon being prominent in the score), it’s some more unusual choices, and really made the show come alive again.  My feeble words cannot do it justice.  Go watch it, then come back here when you’re done.  

Intro watched?  Good.  Rather than cut to commercial, we check in on Belo, where Bruce is the life of the party.  As if to provide proof that bringing back the intro was a good idea, Bruce and company even sing a few snippets of it while at work.  Bear in mind, the intro hasn’t been a part of the show since “Survivor Winners at War”, three years ago at this point.  Yet it remains so iconic that players even now sing it when in the game.  See why you should never have gotten rid of it, even as just an online exclusive that only airs once in the show proper?

Ok, ok, enough gushing about the intro.  Really, this segment can be called “The Two Perspectives on Bruce”  Fittingly, our two attorneys, Jake and Katurah, provide the opposing sides in this debate.  Jake, in the “Bruce is a fun guy” camp, cites Bruce’s weird noises, funny faces, and all around good work ethic.  Sure, Bruce would prefer that more work be done around the camp, but he’s nice about it.  Katurah, in contrast, feels that Bruce is too bossy with the workload.  Jake may have called him “Uncle Bruce”, but in Katurah’s mind, he’s the dad, and she doesn’t like it.  This is not helped by him name-dropping the players he’s close with from his past season, implying that he may have a bit more game-knowledge that he wants to let on.  Frankly, the latter point at least is an objectively bad move for Bruce.  He already comes in with a lot of sympathy, but that will only last so long.  Making himself seem more like a returnee rather than a guy getting a do-over, only makes himself look like more of a threat, and run out said goodwill faster.  

Next stop is Reba, where Sifu is making his fun by showing Austin how he can punch a tree with his left hand, and not feel any pain.  Kind of an odd pastime, but hey, different strokes for different folks.  More identifiable to me is J. Maya’s idea of fun.  Channeling her inner Dipper Pines, she examines the tribe flag, trying to decipher what she’s certain is a code to some idol or advantage on there.  To her credit, she’s not technically wrong, she just doesn’t have all the pieces.  I’m also really impressed that she gives a good, yet succinct, summary of how to decode a message.  She looks for patterns that might indicate word or sentence structure, she tries to figure out some known vowels as a place to start from, based on standing alone.  It’s honestly all a very valid approach, just one that happens to be wrong.  J. Maya might not have gotten a lot of screen time so far, but for this scene alone, I like her.  

Austin, in contrast, does have the full clue, but waits patiently for his tribe to be away before jumping on it.  He figures out the message pretty easily, telling him to dig by “Palm Tree X”.  Whether this is a pair of palm trees that make an “X” or a palm tree with an “X” carved on it, only time will tell.  

Back at Little Lulu, a new day dawns with Emily idol-hunting, very blatantly so.  Given her position, I’d normally decry this in favor of trying to make bonds with the players left, but frankly, we saw how well that went last night.  I can’t really fault Emily for this.  That said, the trouble with blatant idol-hunting when everyone’s against you is that they’ll do everything in their power to stop you.  Thus, they all scatter to find her, Brandon admitting he’d rather find an idol for himself.  Sabiyah is eventually the one that finds Emily.  You know, the two who get along so well.  Sabiyah spins a yarn about everyone looking in pairs to ensure tribe cohesion, which Emily bluntly calls out as them attempting to keep her from an idol.  She stops short of saying “Fuck You”, but the tone is there  Again, you can’t fault Emily for her logic here.  That is blatantly what the tribe is doing, and she might as well try to counteract it.  The issue is tone and delivery.  You can beg off without dissing Sabiyah like that.  

Emily admits that she’s having trouble being alone to idol hunt, even with sending off Sabiyah as she did, and this spells her doom.  Brandon initially seems to get his wish, finding parchment to lead to an idol.  The trouble is, as one would expect, it’s a Beware Advantage.  Brandon, realizing how his luck in the game has been so far, makes the wise decision to let Sabiyah be the one to handle this, since she was around at the time.  Sabiyah, not one to look a gift horse in the mouth (and whose vote is much less valuable, since she’s unlikely to be targeted), agrees, and we see that, again, the show is making a smart change.  While all Beware Advantages will be multiple-stage idol hunts, the exact mechanics of each hunt will vary.  Rather than hold the parchment up to the tribe flag, Sabiyah must match a hole in her parchment over top of her tribe map to determine WHICH significant-looking tree she uses.  She gets this pretty quickly, but is stumped (pun intended) at the tree itself.  Partly this is due to Brandon being zero help, but in fairness, this is a tricky one.  It basically requires that you notice that a tree that does not normally bear coconuts, has a coconut in it, and go from there.  They leave it for now, Sabiyah still without a vote.  

We need a pallet cleanser after that heavy focus on strategy.  Dee is there to provide, as the conversation at Reba deals entirely with her having an abnormally long big toe.  There is a half-assed effort to tie this into the game, with Dee saying this will help her in balance challenges later on.  I’ll admit, I’m not sure if this is her joking, or if there is actually some reason why a longer big toe helps with balance.  Either seems plausible to me.  Really, though, it doesn’t matter.  This scene exists purely to show us the players hanging around and bonding.  Just being themselves and having fun.  And I am here for it..  This is the sort of content modern “Survivor” has been missing, at least within the actual show.  Just stuff to let us bond with the castaways, and not be “All strategy/advantages, all the time!”  The show is putting it’s 90 minutes to extremely good use, despite some stuff we’ll see later.  

Not to say that Reba is devoid of strategy, of course.  No, we see that Julie has made herself the team Mom, and has particularly bonded with Drew.  The pair agree to work together, mutually agreeing to bring in Dee and Austin.  Drew then talks about how everything is going exactly as he planned, and how he’s running the game, stopping just short at declaring that everything the light touches is his kingdom.  Might this be a set-up for hubris?  Only time will tell.  

We return to an unexpected scene at Little Lulu: Someone actually talking to Emily!  Specifically, Kaleb is giving her a shoulder to lean on, along with friendly advice about not being so blunt or playing so fast.  Awfully big for the guy she was literally targeting last episode.  It’s such that one almost suspects it might be him lulling her into a false sense of security, but no, from what we see, Kaleb is being genuine, at least on some level.  His logic is basically that of Terry befriending Abi-Maria on “Survivor Cambodia”: If someone has no ally, why not make them an asset?  And yeah, it’s good strategy.  I don’t think this means Kaleb doesn’t still want Emily out next, but why make an enemy?  Why limit the cards in your hand?

All in all, a very good scene… That I wish had been set up at all!  For all that I praised the use of extra time in this season so far, this is the one time I’d say they dropped the ball a little.  Not terribly, since we’ve had less-foreshadowed moments before, but this bond REALLY comes out of nowhere.  One scene, they’re mortal enemies, the next, friendly allies.  Just kind of a jarring shift, is all.  

Emily is a bit more receptive to the feedback this time, particularly as Kaleb makes sure to highlight her strengths and make clear that he understands her perspective, while also showing what needs to happen to get back in good with everyone.  Emily tears up a bit in confessional, noting that she’s surprised she’s this emotional, and that this isn’t how she is in everyday life.  A bit trite at this point, but it comes across as honest.  I did appreciate her metaphor of her bringing a bazooka to a tea party in terms of how she plays the game versus the rest of her tribe.  And to her credit, she does seem to be trying to take the feedback to heart.  She goes on another apology tour, this one much more effective.  She’s shown bonding a bit with everybody, and even Sabiyah seems slightly less mad at here.  

However, it’s while making up with Brandon that the game comes back in full force once again.  Boats arrive, and by now, pretty much every tribe knows it’s journey time.  Reba and Belo both decide things by rock-paper-scissors, resulting in Drew being sent for Reba, and Bruce for Belo.  The latter is to the chagrin of Katurah, his opponent, who notes that this will give the guy she doesn’t like more ammunition, potentially.  Only Little Lulu does things differently, coming to a “consensus” we don’t see of Brandon going.  Again, we’re missing some important context here, as we see no discussion about this.  And lest you think her emotional confessional earlier meant “Mean Emily” was gone, she does raise a public objection, saying that she feels like she’s being kept away from any advantages again.  Really, the best that can be said for her here is she’s marginally more diplomatic about it, and that “marginally” is doing a lot of heavy-lifting.  

The three arrive to the usual “Take time to get to know one another” note, a discussion that Drew takes charge of, thereby avoiding giving any information himself.  Bruce just talks about his feelings about camp work ethic, while Brandon spills the beans on basically everything, confirming that Emily made a bad first impression with everybody.  Drew notes that Bruce gave nothing away, and thus is probably a bad person to work with, while Brandon was the opposite.  All a reasonable conclusion, except that Drew then says that Bruce is bad at playing the game as a result.  Um, did the definition of a “good game” change unexpectedly?  Because to me, it looks like Bruce kept his cards close to his chest, while Brandon proved he had zero poker face.  Granted, if you’re Drew, you probably want to work with Brandon over Bruce, but that’s because Bruce IS playing well in that scenario (not subtly, but well), where Brandon is not.  

After this discussion, they end up taking separate paths, though all lead to the same dilemma, which I’m calling “schmuck bait”.  They basically took part of a challenge from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, matching tile patterns to find the three unique ones to make a combination out of to open a lock, and made it a challenge in and of itself.  The “schmuck” part is that they only have three minutes, and even if you don’t make a mistake in matching the tile patterns, it’s still largely down to luck how quickly you find the right combination.  With the risk of a vote, for an unknown advantage, which could come down to luck as to whether you get it or not?  Yeah, only a schmuck would take that deal.  

Naturally Brandon goes for it  Drew does as well, to be fair, but I’ll be easier on Drew since his vote isn’t as valuable.  Brandon knows (as does the rest of his tribe, save Emily) that Sabiyah has no vote, and he’s on thin ice as is.  Plus, given his challenge performance, he can’t expect good luck.  Drew, by contrast, has been at least average in challenges, and is safely ensconced in the majority, meaning a worst-case scenario is not that bad for him.  Bruce chooses not to play, as befits his game style.  

For all that I knock Brandon, I do like the guy.  He does bring the Superman energy one wants to see.  And while playing was a dumb decision for him, I’m happy he did, as we get to hear his manic commentary while he tries to make the combination work, which is a joy.  Unfortunately for Brandon, he failed in matching up his tiles, so he runs out of time and loses his vote.  Really, this is a challenge, so what did he expect.  He comes clean to his tribe, much to their exasperation, with Sean wondering if Brandon can actually do ANYTHING challenge-wise?  A fair question, given the evidence we have so far.  

Contrast with Drew, who DID match correctly, and DID eventually guess right, earning himself safety without power.  This advantage needs no introduction in and of itself, though I will note this one is a bit underpowered.  It can only be used up until the final 10, or another 7 rounds.  Not nothing, but that advantage has more power the later it’s used, meaning it’s pretty heavily nerfed, in my opinion.  

This nerf is why I don’t really blame Drew for sharing it with the tribe.  It can help build trust, and with his position, is likely to have little value directly to him, since he’s in a good position for his tribe.  And it can’t be said it doesn’t pay dividends, since Austin trusts him with that his Beware Advantage says.  Even if I wanted to, can’t argue with results.  Point Drew.  

Since Bruce didn’t play at all, we instead spend time with Brando, who attempts to wear his buff as a tube top.  Speaking as another cisgender male, I feel for him.  I myself have tried that once or twice, and it’s A) Painful and B) ineffective without something up top to hold it on.  

This and his demeanor do endear him to the women of Belo, however, whom Kendra assures us are sticking together.  They want Brando as their fourth, which he readily agrees to.  Jake and Bruce, however, can’t help but notice they’re kind of on the outs, so Bruce starts making inroads with Brando.  He gives a casual “Open communication” agreement with him, and springboards off of this to make a four-person alliance.  Himself and Jake, along with Brando and Kellie.  Thus, we see the true nature of Belo.  Rather than a gender split, it’s really three pairs.  Despite Kendra’s assurances, Kellie is tighter with Brando than anyone, and the pair are the swings between the pair of Katurah and Kendra and Bruce and Jake.  Standard tribe dynamic, but a good one.  

Whatever knocks you may have for this episode, it cannot be denied that this episode did a much better job of making it a mystery as to which tribe loses.  We have a good understanding of tribe dynamics and alliances, such that anyone going would make sense.  Here we also see that the show has FINALLY made a change long-overdue: No sitting out back-to-back challenges now means what it says, rather than resetting after a Tribal Council.  Given the lack of reward challenges in recent seasons, all I can say is “About time”.  

Really, the only clue we have as to the outcome is that Little Lulu is favored to lose every challenge, just because of how their tribe is stacked.  And even that seems like it might not be the case on our standard “Obstacle course to puzzle” challenge.  Yeah, they make a big deal about how the coral puzzle is “new”, but let’s be real, the pieces are so similar to those of the “tree puzzle” and the “fire puzzle” that it might as well be the same.  

Point being, however, Little Lulu does not have the blowout loss one might expect.  They actually hold their own pretty well, and are even ahead of Belo in getting to the puzzle.  But then, they just HAD to put Brandon on the puzzle.  Dude panics and falls apart, while Sabiyah insists she can’t do it on her own.  Thus, Little Lulu loses in a blowout, keeping Reba and Belo immune, while also getting them varying amounts of fishing gear.  All while Little Lulu still has no fire.  Remember that.  

Emily makes no bones about the situation once they’re back, noting that it’s going to be her or Brandon, given her rubbing people the wrong way, and his general challenge suckiness.  Thus, Kaleb, Sabiyah, and Sean all go off to talk, though they are not spared Emily’s sarcasm to Brandon about how it must be nice to be in the majority.  Said majority quickly agree that Emily should probably go, which much as I like her is the correct move.  Yes, Brandon is a challenge liability, but if he costs you another one, you can vote him off again.  Emily might make it easier for you to win, since she at least is not a challenge sink from what we’ve seen, but is winning with Emily really a win?  Wanting her around would be conditional upon her being loyal, something neither I nor Sabiyah seems to believe, despite her valiant efforts to turn her game around.  Thus, she is the better choice.  Loyalty is going to be more important long-term than a potential challenge win.  Really, neither are a terrible choice, but I would say Emily is the smarter move overall.  

The issues is that Brandon has no vote, and therefore no Shot in the Dark, while Emily does.  Combine that with Sabiyah still not having a vote as well, and things look pretty shaky.  As such, the hunt for the idol resumes in earnest, and after a montage of people coming so close yet missing it, the three finally notice the coconut and get it down.  They’re overjoyed to be able to have Sabiyah claim her idol and get her vote back!… Only to discover that the idol is encased in WAX, which must specifically be BURNED away, rather than chiseled.  You know, a tough task for the tribe with no fire.  

Thankfully for them, Emily gives up her Shot in the Dark for Sabiyah to hold for the evening as a show of loyalty.  I’m of two minds about this, and it depends entirely on whether the Shot in the Dark is transferrable or not.  If it isn’t, and this is just Emily trying to show trust, I love it.  Helps build the social bonds she’s been working on for little sacrifice (yes, she gives up a potential chance to save herself, but a 1/6 shot is not much.  Better to go for the social move).  If it IS transferrable, however, this is a terrible idea, as it’s just one more incentive to vote you off.  Think Shan and J.D. on “Survivor 41”.  

There’s still decent mystery as we head off to Tribal Council.  Good, because that’s about all it has going for it.  It’s honestly not bad, but with how obvious the targets are, there’s no intriguing double-talk, and mostly a rehash of what we already know.  The one bad part is how Probst tries to tie Brandon’s challenge struggles back to his own life.  Probst, the metaphors are bad enough.  Don’t make Tribal Council about you in the bargain as well.  Both Brandon and Emily give the “Here’s what my life is like, and what this show means to me” moment, so we at least keep the mystery going up to the end.  

Going against what I said was smart, Brandon goes home.  I’m honestly not sure how I feel about his exit.  It was definitely earned, and Brandon wasn’t my favorite, but I still liked the guy.  I’m happy Emily is still around, as she remains my favorite, but I didn’t want Brandon to go either.  Really, I suppose I didn’t want anyone from Little Lulu to go, though, so I would probably never be satisfied.  I can say with confidence, however, that I love how Brandon goes out.  Still as enthusiastic in getting his torch snuffed and giving his final words as ever.  That’s a lot of class, and his joy at just being there shines through.  Glad it was a good experience, man.  Sorry it didn’t go the way you wanted.  

One or two nitpicks aside, I truly enjoyed this episode!  Good mix of strategy and character, good mystery, good development.  Challenges were a bit on the weak side, and Probst was mildly annoying, but if that’s the worst I can say, I’m extremely happy.  And hey, if nothing else, we got the intro back!  Huzzah!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Cambodia

Quick, gotta get one of these out before the next season’s cast gets announced, which I’m betting will be in the next week or two at the time of this writing.  Better be a pretty simple change, preferably from a season I know pretty well… Yep, Cambodia will do nicely.  

Before I delve into the change we’ll be exploring, however, there are a couple of notes that should be given out.  Firstly, I myself did not TRULY come up with this scenario.  Credit for that goes to the “Survivor” YouTuber Peridiam, whose content I quite enjoy.  I’ll go into more detail when I discuss the change itself, but suffice to say, he informed me of something I did not previously know about in a recent video, and that led to the creation of this scenario you’ll be reading about.  Thus, it’s fair to say this is really his idea, rather than mine.  

The other note is the usual warning about SPOILERS!  Given the nature of this season as a second chance for non-winners, I’ll not only be discussing the outcome from Cambodia on for the sake of comparison, I’ll also be spoiling a lot of earlier seasons as well.  Thus, be wary should you read ahead.  It will not be spoiler safe.  

As you’ve now been duly warned, let us dive in.  

THE IMPACT

Doubtless all my readers remember the Final Four of “Survivor Cambodia”.  We’re left with two from San Juan del Sur, in Kelley and Jeremy, and two from Cagayan, in Spencer and Tasha.  They end up competing for immunity in “Simmotion”, quickly becoming an all-too common final challenge, and an underwhelming one at that in my opinion (for those not familiar, I don’t think the challenge is bad per se, but it feels too small yet too complex for a final immunity challenge.  Either give me some massive structure or a straight endurance challenge at the end.)  Jeremy ended up winning, thereby getting rid of pretty much all doubt that anyone but Kelley was going home at that point.  Granted, I don’t think most of us saw Spencer shooting himself in the foot quite as badly as he did, but still, pretty low tension.  

What you may NOT know, or at least I didn’t know, is that this was NOT the first time this challenge was run that season.  As Peridiam detailed in his “Top 10 Game-Ending Chokes in Survivor History” video, there was actually a practice round held before the actual challenge we saw.  And THAT challenge ended quite differently, with Kelley creaming the competition.  Only because a second round was needed did Jeremy win.  

So, what if that DOESN’T happen?  What if there’s not practice round, just one run of the challenge?  Well, assuming that’s the first run, the same as in our timeline, then Kelley wins, obviously.  I’d normally cover what’s next in the next section, but with how simple this change is, we can fudge the borders a bit.  With Kelley now immune, I’d say Jeremy becomes the obvious target.  He’d used his “shields” strategy well, but his shields were now gone.  Kelley was aware of how big of a threat he was, so I’d wager Tasha and Spencer were as well.  Couple that with Tasha and Spencer being allied on their original season, and Jeremy’s a goner here.  How does this change the season?  Find out in the next section.  

THE FALLOUT

Kelley wins.  Yeah, there’s not really a good, clever segue or lead-in to that.  It’s the obvious outcome.  Now, it’s fair to say that Kelley does not have the dominating performance that Jeremy does.  If nothing else, Savage is never voting for her to win under basically any circumstances.  But for the other votes?  At a minimum, I’d say she has Kass, Ciera, Abi-Maria, Kimmi, and Keith on lock.  That’s five out a needed six, and I’d say the likes of Joe, Kelly, and Jeremy lean in her favor as well.  Fishbach is a bit more up in the air, but I could see him being persuaded to vote for her in certain circumstances.  Point being, Kelley is easily the frontrunner to win.  The rest of the changes, however, come in the section I call…

THE LEGACY

For once in this off-season, we’ve got something far back enough in the timeline that it actually changes returnee seasons a bit.  Surprisingly, our first change is actually to “Survivor Game Changers” rather than “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, which Kelley was on in our timeline.  But no, I say the cast of Game Changers is itself changed, simply due to the fact of Jeremy not winning.  In our timeline, Jeremy was victorious one, with Kelley the good-but-robbed player.  In the timeline of a Kelley victory, those roles are reversed.  In our timeline, Kelley was asked to come back for Game Changers, but felt it was too soon.  As such, I don’t doubt that Jeremy is asked back here as well, but he always seemed a bit hungrier for the win, so barring some external life circumstance, I don’t see him saying “no”.  Much as I’d like to say he takes Varner’s place, I don’t see that happening.  

The good news is that the Varner/Zeke incident probably doesn’t happen as a result of this change, but it’s because Zeke, not Varner, gets replaced by Jeremy.  Zeke always seemed a bit “on the bubble” in terms of the cast; brought in more for being from a popular season than being super stand-out as a character his first time around.  Not dissing the guy, to be clear.  He seems like an awesome dude IRL, just not the biggest character from his season.  Add on that it’s always dicey bringing back cast members from a season that just wrapped filming, and I’d say Jeremy is more of a slam-dunk for this spot than anyone else.  Jeremy taking Zeke’s place changes that season in ways that would take a whole other blog to consider, so for now, we’ll leave that change here.  

It may not come first, but as Kelley’s win makes her ineligible for “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, someone must take her place.  I think the smart money would be on Chrissy Hoffbeck of “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  They don’t quite fill the same demographic age-wise, but they are both women known for being good in challenges and overcoming great odds to make it near the end.  Decent enough parallels, and I’d say Chrissy was/is popular enough to merit a second shot.  Again, her place on the season changes too much to go over here, though I will say in the aggregate, I think she and David do worse than their placements in our timeline.  Part of the reason Kelley and David were “successful” (at least compared to Joe and Aubry) is that they worked against one another, thus diluting their threat level in the eyes of the fans.  Chrissy and David seem more on the same wavelength, and unless someone on Manu had the same hero-worship of Chrissy that Lauren had of Kelley, they do worse.  

This, then, brings us to “Survivor Winners at War”, where I have no doubt Kelley is brought back.  Popular winner from a popular season?  Yeah, she’s a shoe-in, probably taking Michele’s spot given how controversial the latter’s win was.  Shame, since it means we’re deprived of the Michele renaissance we got in our timeline, but these things happen.  No Jeremy on Winners at War also means we need a replacement for him.  As per usual with these blogs, I’m sticking with the safe choice of Mike Holloway from “Survivor Worlds Apart” getting the slot.  The man made it far in casting in our timeline, only getting cut due to spots just not being available.  One becomes available?  Production takes him in a heartbeat.  

I mentioned Kelley being a popular winner from a popular season, and surprise surprise, I meant it.  Cambodia is hardly reviled in our timeline, with only those who strongly favor character over strategy having much negative to say about it.  Kelley’s win doesn’t change the validity of that criticism, but I don’t see her hurting the legacy of the season any more than Jeremy’s win does in our timeline.  If anything, the season is an even bigger deal than in our timeline.  We’ll rightly laud Jeremy for playing a smart game, but in terms of the show, it wasn’t a particularly “flashy” win.  Kelley, in contrast, has the “Wentworth, will not count” as the iconic moment of the season.  Even in our timeline, I’d say it’s remembered as the highlight of the season.  As the crux of a winner’s story?  Yeah, it’s one for the history books.  There’s also just the fact that Kelley perhaps more than anyone else on the season, exemplifies the idea of the “second chance”.  She was tied for earliest boot on the season with Kimmi, and then she comes back and wins?  That’s an arc you can’t write, and it’s amazing to watch when it happens.  

As a final, random change this makes to the timeline, of all people, Drew Christy of “Survivor San Juan del Sur” is oddly given a bit more credit than in our timeline.  Don’t misunderstand, he’s still by and large the butt of the joke with just how much the edit dunks on him and his decisions throughout his boot episode.  “The Fall of Drew Christy” is easily one of the funniest things to come out of modern “Survivor”.  But now, with a Kelley win?  People look back on his out-of-nowhere quest to get rid of her, to the point of throwing a challenge just to eliminate her, and think “Yeah, this guy’s an idiot in his execution, but maybe he was on to something with the general idea.”  Man, that’s a weird timeline to think about.  

Speaking of weird timelines, thanks for following this one!  Always appreciate people taking the time to peruse my weird ramblings.  To help ensure I have more of them, let me know down in the comments what you’d like me to examine next!  The general guidelines for what sorts of submissions will be considered are listed below.  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”.  As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect.  However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on.  You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet.  For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Cambodia, Kaoh Rong, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols, Winners at War.

As always, thank you so much for following my mad ramblings, and I look forward to hearing what you want to read next in the comments!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 9: You Only Win Twice

The name’s Arocho.  Yam Yam Arocho.  I’ll have a bottle of well water.  Boiled, not fresh.  Brain parasites, you know.  

Honestly, the idea of Yam Yam as James Bond is oddly hilarious to me.  Not sure why, but it is.  Best guess is how it would match on as a parody.  Like, who would be the “Bond Girl”, or I guess, “Bond Boy” in this case?  Josh, maybe?  He’s an Act One one, at least.  But now I’m getting way off track, and avoiding the episode proper.  

As to that episode proper, here we learn that there is such a thing as being TOO nice about being blindsided.  Jaime, energetic as ever, is quick to congratulate Danny and the rest of Soka on a successful idol play.  All well and good, but she goes on and on about how amazing it is.  She’s making it out like it’s this big move that’s never been done before, when cancelling votes with an idol is literally a move as old as “Survivor Fiji”.  Hell, even if you want to say she was talking about the number of votes cancelled, she’s still beat out by at least Kelley Wentworth’s idol play on “Survivor Cambodia”.  More recent than Fiji, obviously, but still… 8 years ago…  Man, I suddenly feel old.  

For his part, Danny is more pleased than I would be if I was him about how things went down.  Sure, everything all went according to plan, which as Danny correctly notes is a rarity on “Survivor”, but you still burned an idol when it was arguably not necessary (yes, Frannie received the majority of the votes, but they could also have engaged in a split vote to achieve the same effect.  Slightly riskier, perhaps, but possible).  Still, a blindside well-executed whatever else happened, and Danny can be proud of that.  

Lauren and Kane both do better jobs handling the blindside.  Kane is generally pleasant, but publicly doesn’t say much.  Lauren is vocal, but limits it more to what she and the rest of Ratu could have done better, rather than how she’s feeling.  Lauren’s conclusion is that they should have split the votes, which I’m not so sure about.  Splitting the votes only works if Tika is with you, and while they did largely vote with you, basic math says that at least one Tika member must have voted for Brandon.  As such, you have to assume that Tika was at least partially in on the plan to blindside Brandon, and thus not trustworthy with a split vote.  

But no, the old Ratu is convinced that Tika is with them, for some reason.  This of course pleases the old Tika, who admit they’re now firmly in the driver’s seat.  Yam Yam even gives me good title fodder by comparing himself to James Bond, whom he misnames as “Double-Oh Cero” (000 to the non-Spanish speakers among us).  Time will tell how well they can capitalize on this.  

With his game face now on, Kane notes that an idol being played means there’s likely a new one hidden somewhere.  Thus, everyone starts setting off to hunt.  Danny is the most blatant of all, only making token “Getting firewood” excuses.  Everyone sees him doing this, and it makes him a target, so Danny had better hope he’s the one to find an idol.  Danny is confident in himself, however, noting that he’s working harder than anyone in this hunt.  Naturally, such a bold statement can only lead to an ironic fate, and we almost immediately cut to Heidi finding the idol.  Good for her.  

Our next segment is something of a rarity for the new era of “Survivor”: A scene of pure camp life.  Yep, no advantages, no challenges, and practically no strategy talk.  Everyone is gathered around the flag they’re painting, and I have to say, while the name “Va Va” for the merge tribe is ok at best, that flag is killer!  The shield look fits with the more medieval theme of the season, and the things that look like runes down at the bottom are a nice accent.  Yam Yam then gets the tribe onto a round of “Eye Spy”, teaching us the Spanish name for it the meantime.  Yam Yam also shows us how he is too pure for this sinful Earth.  When Frannie spies something beginning with “F”, he first guesses “Frannie”, which is just innocent, and then “Family”, which is really sweet regarding people he’s known for at most 17 days at this point.  For the record, the correct answer was “Firewood”, as Lauren figures out.  

We then get Carolyn giving everyone her backstory regarding addiction, celebrating 13 years sober out on the island.  Speaking as someone who has worked, and still does sometimes work, with drug-addicted populations, that is damn impressive, Carolyn!  You rock, assuming you’re reading this, which I admittedly doubt.  Everyone feels closer to Carolyn as a result, and in the one bit of strategy talk, Carolyn articulates how she’s moved from someone whom no one thought they could work with to someone whom no one suspects strategically.  A really good, accurate assessment, and all with a well-done backstory that felt like a natural progression in the show, rather than forced in for the sake of “feels”.  Honestly a well-done scene that both brings us closer to the characters, and gives us insight into Carolyn’s game and strategy.  Just a highlight of the episode.  I have no notes.  

Ok, that’s not exactly true.  I do have one note.  Carolyn, why are you climbing a giant rock for no reason?  Have you learned nothing from Matthew’s example earlier this season?  You too, Yam Yam, don’t think I didn’t see you on that rock as well!

But what of our third Tika member, Carson?  Yeah, he’s still not doing so hot.  He admits his nausea has gotten better, but he’s just plain feeling out of energy.  One episode of this sort of talk I could dismiss, but with two, I’m getting concerned.  True, he does seem to get better after a substantial meal, but this is now two episodes in a row where Carson’s health has been the focus; rarely a good sign.  We did hear before the season that there would be two medical evacuations, and it could be argued that Bruce and Matthew fit the bill.  Matthew technically quit, however (for justifiable reasons, but still a quit rather than a medevac), leaving us with room for one more potential medical evacuation.  Carson seems cool, so I hope that isn’t the case, but needs to be brought up as a possibility.  

How is Carson going to get access to the aforementioned food?  Why, by negotiation, of course!  We get the reading of Tree Mail, which at first seems unusual at this point in the show’s history, until you realize that the note basically says “There’s a rice negotiation today; better prepare!”  All parties talk it over, with Carson volunteering to sit out due to, you know, illness.  There’s some talk about wanting to split sit-outs relatively evenly between the tribes (it’s stated in the note that four people need to give up a shot at immunity, which does not evenly divide into three tribes), but really, the planning is notable more for how it breaks down.  Some, like Frannie, are reluctant to go along with sit-out plans due to not trusting the other tribes.  Fair enough.  Frannie did technically receive the majority of the votes last episode, so she has a reason to be mistrustful.  Moreover, it leads to a dynamic we’ve not seen before in these negotiations, which makes it more fun to watch than usual.  

Danny, however, has his own reasons for why negotiations break down.  He feels that sitting out for food, since everyone came out here to play.  A sentiment I myself have expressed and agreed with… WHEN YOU WERE SITTING OUT FOR A MEAL JUST FOR YOURSELF!  If it’s a “Gorge yourself on burgers or whatever while watching everyone else play”, I 100% agree with Danny.  You look like a jerk for eating on your own, and you have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to do these challenges.  What do you gain?  Feeling full for a few hours.  Suck it up and do the challenge.  But the rice negotiation is a different animal.  You’re sitting out for tribe gain, which could be done strategically to curry favor, and you’re getting no more benefit from doing so than anyone else.  It’s not a matter of “You came here to play”, it’s a matter of “Doing what’s best for your game”, and in this particular context, sitting out might actually be the best thing for your game.  

All this time spent on the buildup made me think Jeff was going to pull some sort of shenanigans at the auction, but it’s actually more to set up how reluctant everyone was to sit out.  With the rain, Heidi asks if anyone has changed their mind from the plan of not doing so earlier.  Lauren is the first volunteer, and while I’m not surprised she sat out overall, I AM surprised she sat out that quickly.  Don’t get me wrong, given where Lauren thinks she is in the game, and her personality, it makes sense that she would sit out.  However, given how the votes ended up last Tribal Council, and given that she was not targeted partly due to having immunity, I would have thought she’d wait for others to jump first.  Carson joins right in, but everyone else needs some promises.  Most everyone there guarantees the sit-outs safety, Danny even saying “Scout’s Honor”.  These guarantees are, of course, about as genuine as the ones Jason Siska got on “Survivor Micronesia”, but they’re enough to get Kane to jump.  Frannie tries to convince Jaime she’s safe, which initially works, though Jaime backs out of backing out at the last minute.  Heidi ultimately steps in, meaning that for all that craziness, things ultimately went the way they were planned.  Still fun to watch the process, though.  

Our challenge is, of course, a reused endurance challenge, specifically holding a ball on a post with a rolling pin while standing on a block of wood.  That said, for all that this is old hat (and looks kind of goofy, if I may be honest), I will give them credit that they upped the challenge difficulty in a couple of ways.  For one thing, they made the block you stand on smaller, as well as enacted a rule that you had to stand one foot on top of the other.  The other is that, as Probst notes, it’s raining, making the ball slick and harder to support.  So yeah, if we’re going to redo this challenge, better to make it harder.  Even if some of the difficulty was not something the show could have planned for. 

After a close battle, Frannie wins her second immunity.  Now all she has to do is never win immunity again, and my title for this blog will remain true.  

Unsurprisingly, most of our post-challenge strategizing falls along the Soka vs. Ratu battle lines.  Ratu wants to split the vote between Heidi and Danny, with Danny being the preferred target.  Makes sense.  Probably the two most strategically competent players on that side, plus the person who’s won the most individual immunities and the guy who on paper is a challenge threat.  Soka, meanwhile, is all in on getting out Kane, which I have to say is more strategically questionable.  Ok, not going for Jaime I get.  She’s not that great a player, threat of an idol, has been ok working with you in the past; there’s reasons to let Jaime be for the time being.  But Kane?  Guy has barely got his legs under him all season (as he himself admits, he’s never successfully voted anyone off), and has no advantages or idols to his name.  Lauren you know has an extra vote, has proven to be tough in challenges, and is strategically at least competent, if not above-average.  As such, she seems the much greater threat in this scenario.  

Before we discuss Tika’s position in the middle of all this, there’s a couple of shenanigans we need to discuss.  One is Ratu’s movement of idols and advantages.  To plan for a possible Knowledge is Power shake-up (now I think on it, it IS kind of weird the show didn’t try putting it in again after trying twice on “Survivor 43”; not that I’m complaining), they switch everything around, Jaime holding Lauren’s banked vote, and Kane holding what he thinks is an idol, but is actually Jaime’s fake one.  Oh, poor Kane.  Even when he thinks he has some power, the chyron has to mock him by choosing that moment in the confessional to add “One Fake Idol” to it.  For all that I mock, this is honestly decent strategic planning, and I can’t fault them for it.  

The other thing of note is a plan floated by Frannie to potentially flip the vote, working with Ratu to get out Yam Yam.  She correctly notes that Tika is by far the tightest three, with strategically the most power, and thus weakening them is something to consider.  I’d say Carson or Carolyn make more sense to target, but given that Carson’s sick and Carolyn has done a good job obfuscating how smart she is, I can’t fault Frannie too much for this.  Who I CAN fault is Danny, who dismisses the idea out of hand, despite the fact that everything Frannie has said is factually correct.  Danny is dead-set against ever working with Ratu, saying that doing so is like being “Under the Wing of a Dragon”, giving us an episode title I’m still having a hard time believing did not come from Kane.  

This is important to bring up first since it leads into my thoughts about the debate Tika has about which side to choose.  Yam Yam is all for sticking with Soka, wanting Kane gone for writing his name down.  Carolyn and Carson, however, peg Danny as the bigger threat, and thus want him gone instead.  Now, in terms of threat level, I would say Carolyn and Carson have the more accurate view, and thus I was inclined to side with them in this debate when it first came up.  Thinking more about it, however, I’m actually inclined to side with Yam Yam, and it’s 100% due to seeing that conversation Frannie had about flipping on Tika.  This is the first, and so far only, time someone has seriously talked about targeting that particular tribe (Yam Yam being the default decoy notwithstanding), and is the one major threat to their position of power.  You get rid of Danny, and it’s very possible Frannie and Heidi rally with Ratu to start targeting, say, Carolyn or Carson.  Get rid of Kane, however, and I don’t think Ratu does the same thing, with how laser-focussed they are on Soka.  Thus, you remain the swing vote, and keep your power.  Of course we have no idea of Tika KNOWS Frannie has proposed this plan, and as I say, Danny is threatening for a number of reasons, so it’s hardly a bad move to get him out tonight.  Getting out Kane just seems slightly more optimal.  

Our Tribal Council starts out pretty promising.  A forced metaphor here or there, but some good banter and funny moments.  As I called to my friends when I was watching the episode, Danny reveals he was never a scout, hence his earlier “Scout’s Honor” meant nothing.  I will also give props once again to the editors.  Yam Yam talks about wanting subtitles, and sure enough, the editors give him some.  There’s even good mystery throughout, as I can see arguments for either Kane or Danny going.  Where things go downhill is when Probst inserts himself too much into the conversation.  Because humor is boring, I guess, he insists that this cast is full of people ready to have a “Live Tribal” every episode.  Dutifully, our players get up and start whispering to one another.  Decently fun chaos, but I preferred what we had before.  

Chaotic also is a good descriptor for the vote.  No idols played, despite Heidi explicitly bringing hers and receiving votes, but Jaime does burn Lauren’s extra vote.  All to no avail, however, as Kane ends up being the victim.  I’m not overly sorry to see him go.  I would probably get along well with him in real life, and I did enjoy his D&D references, but ultimately, just not that great a player, and so I’ll take the more competent and energetic player staying in the game any day.  I do feel bad for Kane, since he never got his feet under him, but sometimes that’s just how “Survivor” is.  

That said, so much for the fake idol.  Glad we spent so much time on THAT Chekov’s gun, only to never fire it.  

This season continues the upward trajectory it’s been on since roughly the merge.  While it still hasn’t reached the highs of the early season, the moments to just let the characters “be” were a breath of fresh air, we had good strategy to chew on, and even a bit of chaos to keep things interesting.  Minor nitpicks aside, I’m quite happy.   Let’s hope the trajectory continues.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 7: May I Offer You A Papaya In This Trying Time?

Sometimes the show just hands you a gift.  Drops the title right in your lap.  Sure, I could come up with something clever, but why bother?  Nothing is going to top that line, and frankly, it’s a CRIME that that wasn’t the official episode title.  Sure, it’s a bit long, but I would remind you that the first episode of Cook Islands was called “I Can Forgive Her But I Don’t Have To Because She Screwed Up My Chickens”.  Long, and still one of the all-time great episode titles.  You could have used it here.  

Besides, given what’s about to happen to Matt, you could at least have thrown him a bone by letting him name the episode.  

We start off this episode on familiar ground: Yam Yam doing a poor job recovering from a Tribal Council that did not go his way.  Ok, ok, to be fair, he does a good job injecting humor into the thing, and everyone’s laughing with him by the end.  And of course, Yam Yam shouldn’t be happy about seeing his name come up multiple times.  But to dwell on it with barely concealed annoyance?  Not a good look.  

Luckily for Yam Yam, talk soon turns away from strategy, and to what to name the newly merged tribe.  A rare scene in this day and age, but ok.  Yam Yam himself ends up naming the tribe, noting that “Va” means “Four” in Fijian, and thus the tribe is named “Va Va”, for “Survivor 44”.  Somewhat clever, appropriate to the season, and is at least not a combination of the old tribe names.  That said, I still can’t endorse the name, because of my ironclad “Good tribe names are at least five letters long” rule, though I must admit, the show seems hell-bent on never giving us longer names again, so it’s hard to be too mad at the players following suit.  

But not all were present for this naming!  Our resident lovebirds, Matt and Frannie, are off doing their lovebird thing.  Nothing much new comes of this, so let us move on to the strategy talk.  It quickly becomes clear that, with the former Tika no longer considered a threat, it is now a war between the former Soka and the former Ratu.  We see things from Soka’s perspective, and they target Lauren.  Fair enough.  Kane’s no threat, Brandon has a bond with Danny, and Jaime has some Soka bonds, while Lauren has an extra vote that is presumably public knowledge.  Makes her a threat, and with no obvious ties to anyone on another tribe (save one journey early in the season), she’s the easy vote.  

Not to say that Soka won’t talk to any former Ratu, though.  Brandon, in keeping with his inability to keep his mouth shut, starts talking about the birdcage idol.  He describes it quite well, and mentions the detail that there were two idols, one real and one fake, in the birdcage.  And most notably, he mentions this in the presence of Matt, who is in possession of the Soka fake idol.  

Now, I’ve been hard on Matt this season.  It’s hard seeing someone who shares your first name be portrayed as nothing but a lovestruck dummy whose every move seems cursed with bad luck.  Frankly, the jokes just write themselves.  But I will give him credit: He is not a moron.  On hearing that Brandon’s birdcage had two idols, he concludes that his should have had the same, and the fact that it did not makes his idol a likely fake.  Further, he realizes in retrospect that Danny was a bit TOO eager to have him look in the roots of trees, and thus correctly realizes that Danny was the one with the real Soka idol.  This sets Matt against Danny, though notably not immediately.  He states that it’s ok for Danny to think he’s in charge for now, and contents himself with letting others know about Danny’s idol.  Thus, despite what happens tonight, this information may come back to bite Danny.  

Wait, it’s challenge time?  Five minutes in?  Goddammit, there’s going to be some stupid twist that merits a lot of explanation time, isn’t there?  Yep, not content with a split Tribal Council last episode, now we have to have another one!  Because heaven forbid we actually let the tribe have a normal vote-off without any sort of production shake-up!  

Unwillingness to let the status quo be aside, I actually don’t hate this twist.  It’s basically the split Tribal that’s now standard at the final 10, with an extra twist.  While the remaining people on teams of 5 compete to win reward for their team, in this case a picnic feast including peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, they’re also competing for safety without power.  Basically, only one team of five is going to Tribal Council tonight.  The others will be there, watching, but not be allowed to vote.  Is it a necessary shakeup?  No.  But at least it’s different, and not too overpowered.  You can win immunity for the team, but at the cost of having no say at Tribal Council.  Decently balanced, and spares us the confines of a double-Tribal.  

One person on the losing team getting immunity also gives us our look at the individual immunity idol for the season, and like the merge tribe name, it’s not the worst, but definitely disappointing to say the least.  A necklace somewhat reminiscent of plate mail, with a big gold disk in the center with dragons on it.  It could have been worse, but with how strong the theming was this season, I was hoping for something more epic.  A standard, a piece of armor, SOMETHING!  Think of how different the scabbard on “Survivor Pearl Islands” was as an idol.  They could easily have done something similar here.  Again, not the worst, but definitely missed potential instead of doing another somewhat generic necklace.  

An odd number of people means one person is not randomly assigned a team, and that one person is Carson.  As such, he gets to choose a team to be a part of, even if he doesn’t participate.  Probably the fairest thing to do, but it does feel a bit wrong that he randomly gets no say in his fate beyond guessing what team will win out.  Carson sides with the orange team of Carolyn, Heidi, Frannie, Kane, and Danny, which given that this is a balance challenge involving holding a ball on a horizontal pole over one’s head, seems like a wise choice.  These sorts of challenges favor those with low centers of gravity.  Shorter women, in other words.  True, purple does have Jaime and Lauren, but consider that they also have Matt, Yam Yam, and freaking BRANDON, the tallest guy out here?  Yeah, I’d say Carson bet his money safely.  

Surprisingly, though, the purple team does a good job defying the body-type odds.  Only Jaime goes down before almost all of the orange team, leaving it as Frannie against four.  The inspirational music tells us she’ll succeed, but lost mystery aside, it’s impressive nonetheless.  More impressive to me, though, is who lasts longest on the purple team.  As I foreshadowed, it’s somehow the giant Brandon who wins here.  Kudos to him!  If you had asked me to bet on someone who would NOT win this challenge under any circumstances, I probably would have bet on Brandon.  Tall guy, top heavy.  This challenge would not seem his forte, so good on him proving me wrong.  

Our losers are sent to the old Soka camp, a problem for Matt since he doesn’t have his bag with him.  I initially planned to ask why this was such a big deal when Matt himself had said his idol was a fake, but Matt will later mention his Shot in the Dark die is in there, thus preventing him from even having that chance, which makes sense.  After crying out in the vain hope Frannie will hear him, and after giving us a needless love montage between Matt and Frannie, Matt sets to work.  

Jaime is, despite her earlier declarations, considered to still be Ratu, and so both Matt and Yam Yam realize they are the targets.  They’re nice enough about it to one another, and agree that if they can sway someone, they’ll work together, but both admit they plan to vote one another at this time.  Matt makes a pitch to Brandon and Jaime to keep him since he thinks they can work well together.  Brandon in particular is on board, noting that as he voted Yam Yam at the last Tribal Council (a fact he later stupidly admits to Yam Yam, but again, it’s pretty clear at this point that Brandon’s major game flaw is an inability to keep his mouth shut).  Yam Yam, meanwhile, works on Lauren, bringing up the solid point that Matt is well-liked, and has the relationships, and therefore other options, that Yam Yam doesn’t.  

The old Ratu compare notes and agree to go for Matt, which does make sense.  Yam Yam is the equivalent of Romeo from “Survivor 42”.  The person who’s always the safety vote, who can be gotten rid of at any time, and therefore not perceived as a threat.  Of course, Romeo got to the end, but with no shot at winning, so unless you’re concerned about a seat getting eaten up at this stage, Yam Yam is not a threat.  Matt, by contrast, is well-liked and has more ties, thereby making him a larger threat.  Plus, if there is a Soka/Ratu war, getting out an original Soka member can only help things.  They agree to split their votes, despite Matt telling them his idol is a fake.  Believing he might have it on him without his bag I’ll let slide, but really?  You think this guy is capable of planning that far ahead for a twist he couldn’t see coming?  Plus, if he DOES have an idol, what good is splitting the vote anyway?  It would be 2-2-1, but if the idol is played correctly, Matt and Yam Yam’s two votes would win out.  Granted, this assumes Matt and Yam Yam vote together, but I’d hardly call that a remote possibility.  Now, it WOULD defend against a successful shot in the dark, but even then, overly paranoid, says I.  

Our winners have come to pretty much the same conclusion over their PB&J.  Most would prefer that Yam Yam go (Carolyn being the only real dissenter), but feel they have no real way to make it happen.  Frannie laments that she should, perhaps, have thrown the challenge to save Matt, but I personally disagree.  His loss is no guarantee of his eviction, especially as Yam Yam seems the obvious target based on last Tribal Council, and there is the chance Jaime could be persuaded to vote for Lauren, given how all-in she appears with Soka (categorizing her as Ratu this episode notwithstanding).  That being said, even in a worst-case scenario… Well, I hate to sound heartless, but it might actually be good for Frannie if Matt goes.  

Now hear me out on this: The two are definitely close, and even if their attraction does not blossom into love outside the game, losing a close ally is never fun.  But the fact is that of Soka, their pairing is the most obvious target.  The clear rallying cry against your alliance as a whole.  It makes both of you the major targets moving forward.  But if one of those targets is gone, the other is much less of a threat, and therefore stands a much better chance long-term.  Plus, this gets out Matt without Frannie dirtying her hands, thus guaranteeing her a jury vote should she make it to the end.  Hardly a bad deal for her, from that perspective.  

Of course, we can’t have a reward without ANOTHER production twist throw in.  A note has been sitting there all feast, and Frannie finally opens it.  The note says that the birdcage has been re-locked with a new advantage inside.  Keys are hidden in the open throughout the island.  The catch is that only one key is real, and you can only come back with one key at a time.  First to open the cage gets the advantage.  Look, I know production can’t help themselves, but even by their standards, this “drama” feels forced.  Yes, the moment of hesitation before everyone bolts is fun, and they do have some good cinematography on the race to find the keys, but ultimately, this is not interesting.  Basically just a roulette wheel determine who gets an advantage.  

Heidi is our eventual winner, revealing publicly (as Frannie saw her open the cage) that she got the “Control a Vote” advantage, which is not as powerful as it sounds.  As the name would imply, at this Tribal Council, and only this Tribal Council, she can dictate how exactly one player votes.  When Jeff says “It’s time to vote”  she names a player whose vote she wants to control, tells them how to vote, and they must do so.  It’s basically no different from a “Steal a Vote” advantage, though minus the “Joe is voting for Joe” hilarious possibility.  On the other hand, it does allow a bit more influence from the peanut gallery on how things go, which is nice.  I wish it wasn’t handed out randomly, but still nice.  

But how shall Heidi use this power?  The obvious answer is to save Matt, and try and get the vote on Lauren.  Steal Jaime’s or Brandon’s vote, have them do Lauren, and hope that Matt and Yam Yam get the message.  Gets out a Ratu, saves a close ally and a potential ally, and gives you the feather of “Controlled a vote you weren’t even technically present for” at the end.  True, Lauren’s extra vote could just make everything a tie again, but in that case, you can say you tried, but could do nothing in the end.  No way to overcome the math on that one.  Granted, the person whose vote you control is going to be pissed, but that comes with the territory of using the advantage.  In that regard, the only winning move is not to play.  

Despite the obvious benefits of this plan, Heidi has second thoughts.  She doesn’t want to risk Yam Yam going out, seeing him as a potential ally (fair), while Matt is closer with Frannie than anyone.  The latter point is also fair, though I would note that Matt is a more likely ally for you than either Brandon, Lauren, or even Jaime, and thus, targeting one of them would likely be easier.  She explains her reservations to Frannie, who is not buying it.  The confessional where she exasperatedly says Heidi DOES have the power to save Matt is nothing short of hilarious, and a highlight of the episode.  

We head off to Tribal Council with the mystery being less on who will go, and more on how Heidi will play her advantage.  Not to say that Tribal Council gives us nothing, though.  Matt asks if someone brought his bag with all the subtlety of a brick, only to find that he is let down in this regard.  As such, he offers Probst a papaya, leading to one of the all-time great random “Survivor” Quotes.  Then comes the strategizing.  Matt gives an excellent pitch, pointing out how he has worked with, or at least bonded with, the three Ratu with him.  Yam Yam, for his part, does a good job turning this against Matt, pointing out how good a salesman he is.  Then come the waterworks from both Yam Yam and Matt about their situation.  Not the best emotional moment I’ve seen on the show, but I can’t deny I felt at least a little something.  

Now comes the time for Heidi to use her advantage, and she decides to split the difference.  She does try to save Matt, probably to help keep Frannie happy, but evidently does not think targeting a former Ratu will work.  As such, she orders Lauren to vote for Yam Yam.  If Lauren’s banked vote was not common knowledge before, it is now.  Lauren asks for clarification on whether Heidi controls one or both of her votes.  While potentially bad for Lauren’s game if it wasn’t already known, it does make us rules lawyers very happy to get a definitive answer.  Sure enough, Probst clarifies that just one vote is controlled, meaning Matt’s fate is sealed.  He goes home, and I’m mixed.  Yam Yam is the more exciting character, and this is a bigger strategic shake-up hopefully leading to more excitement down the road.  That said, Matt was finally starting to come into his own in the game, and it’s a shame to see his time cut short, especially when he couldn’t even use his shot in the dark.  Plus, he and Frannie WERE cute together, I can’t deny.  At least he made the jury.  

While not reaching the heights of most of the rest of the season, this is an improvement over last episode.  The pathos was real, and I can’t say I was bored.  That said, production REALLY needs to slow down on the twists.  They’re muddling a game that’s jam-packed as it is.  Will they slow down?  Probably not, but I can dream.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 4: Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Honestly, I feel bad for the guys of “Whose Line?” that I’m now associating them with this episode.  Corny as improv might be at times, these guys are professionals who pull it off well.  The acting talent this episode PALES in comparison to what they have.  Then again, the acting talent this episode pales in comparison to beige pants, so it’s not exactly a high bar.  

What is a high bar, it seems, is me getting through a blog unscathed.  Yes, it is time once again for me to pull out that old chestnut…

MATT’S MESS=UP!

Again, really minor one here, but when talking about Jaime last episode, I referred to her as “Plant Mommy”.  In actuality, she and her necklace both refer to her as “Plant Lady”.  I’m inclined to give myself a pass on this once, since they are very similar names, and I believe Matthew even calls her “Plant Mommy” at one point, but still technically incorrect on that one.  The best kind of incorrect.  

With a unified vote last episode, we skip any potential drama on Soka and move on to their morning routine, which seems to involve meditating at sunrise.  Somewhere, Coach (“Survivor Tocantins”) just got a huge grin, and doesn’t know why.  Meditation bring introspection, though.  Josh looks inside himself, and decides that he’s got it made.  He’s in between two twosomes as the swing vote on a strong tribe likely to go into the merge with some numbers.  I’m normally against such confidence on “Survivor”, but based on what we’ve seen up to this point, the man is correct in his assessment.  I’m sure this is in NO WAY setting up an ironic change of fortune for Josh.  

Actually, his turnaround happens in record time.  No sooner has Josh said that he’s the swing vote than we see a discussion between the remaining four about how they want Josh out next.  Danny thinks that strong twosomes are the way to go, and as he and Heidi are the closest pair outside of Matt and Frannie, is keen to ally with them.  I’ll admit I would more favor having a strong threesome to go to the end with, but it’s still relatively early days game-wise, and I’ve heard of worse strategies.  Not a good look for Josh that he’s unaware of this, though.  

Where we do get our drama for the evening is Tika.  You see, there is now a red “X” made of sticks stuck through the bars of the birdcage.  Everyone concludes this means something has been hidden related to the birdcage, with the red “X” being a clue to its location.  A logical conclusion, though Yam Yam is surprised, since the tribe had concluded, for some reason, that there was no way to open the birdcage.  Why he would think the show would put something on the island just to mess with people’s heads, when they could be adding ANOTHER advantage to the game, I don’t know.  

We quickly learn what we all suspected: Carolyn is the culprit of the red “X”.  Whenever anything random happens on this tribe, assume Carolyn is somehow responsible.  Carolyn does clue us in on the method to her madness this time, though.  She wants the fake idol found, so she hides it in their log bench near the fire, putting another pair of red sticks in an “X” beneath it to help indicate its location.  

What?  You’re expecting mockery here?  Look, Carolyn can be a LOT, to put it mildly, but credit where it’s due, this is a good plan on her part.  Feels like something the show would do, the hiding place is logical without being too obvious, and it can give someone a false sense of security despite the lack of real power.  Given the tools available to her, I’m not sure she could have done better.  About the only more skillful play is Sarah managing to pick it up along with her laundry while everyone else is around the fire, and given that Sarah has gotten basically nothing, I’m still giving the point to Carolyn overall.  

That said, we DO see there’s a note along with the fake idol, basically the instructions for the real idol.  This bothers me, and gives me the chance to talk about my feelings about the fake idol being included with a real one in the birdcage.  Let me state up front that I do like some aspects of this twist.  Specifically, I like that one tribe’s fake idol is another tribe’s real idol.  It’s something that could conceivably be figured out by the players, rewarding critical thinking, but could also lead to epic misreads if you think someone doesn’t have a real idol, which has the potential for hilarious tv.  

No, the issue that I have now I’ve had time to think about it is that there’s no real way for the second finder to find out that their fake idol ISN’T real without playing it.  When a fake idol is made by a player, even if hidden with a note, that player still has the possibility to notice that it’s a fake based on how it’s made.  Easier or harder to do, and often players will play it anyway on the off-chance it’s an idol no matter how fake (see Ozzy’s stick with a face on “Survivor Micronesia” for the most famous example of this), but there is at least a chance.  But when you get something made by production, with a note from production saying it’s an idol, what’s the difference between the fake idol and the real one?  Only an arbitrary distinction made by production, that’s way.  Maybe include a fake idol making KIT in the birdcage moving forward, if it sticks around, but not just a pre-made fake with no distinction between fakes and reals.  

Wait, what’s this?  A CHALLENGE!  Just for REWARD!  In the PRE-MERGE of the new era?  Surely you jest!

No, it’s real, and unfortunately for Tika, it involves zero puzzles.  Instead it’s the “Climb a large structure and shoot sandbags at a target; first team to hit five wins” challenge, most memorable for its appearance on “Survivor Cambodia”, where Stephen Fishbach managed to hit another tribe’s target on his go.  It is different enough from the usual “obstacle course/puzzle” combo we usually get these days that I don’t hate it, but again, would prefer original challenges period.  

Reward in this case is a tarp, with second place getting a smaller one.  The winning tribe will also get to select one member from each tribe including their own to go on a “Journey”.  Oh great, this again.  Kiss characterization and development goodbye, this episode is going to be advantage-focussed.  

As I hinted at earlier, Tika comes in last, largely again due to Carolyn.  The competition between Ratu and Soka is a bit more intense.  Soka comes out on top this time, which I find a bit odd considering who gets picked for the journey.  Carson from Tika and Jaime from Ratu are their choices from the other tribes, but these make some sense.  Both could be a decent guess for who’s on the outs from a given tribe (Carson for nerdiness, Jaime for quirkiness), and neither are the best challenge performers of their team, save when it comes to puzzles.  Yet, for some reason, Soka decides that JOSH should go on the journey.  You know, Josh, the guy they were JUST TALKING ABOUT VOTING OFF?!  Yeah, send him to get a potentially game-breaking advantage, I’m sure that has no chance whatsoever of backfiring!  The only things I can figure are either that they needed to send him to keep up the lie that he was a swing vote, or they were hoping he’d lose a vote.  Valid reasons if true, but still seems awfully risky when there were other options.  I doubt Josh would be too suspicious if Heidi was sent, since she seems fairly social with everyone, even if not the swing vote from Josh’s perspective.  

Jaime in particular is excited for this trip, both to get something for herself, but also because she “had her eye” on Josh and Carson as potential cross-tribe allies.  Ah good, the “people can talk” benefit of these “Journeys” is coming back, aka the best part of them.  Surely now we we get to see negotiation and strategizing between these three!  

Nope.  After Carson talks about needing some advantage of his own, the three just go on separate paths, never to talk again until a merge situation.  Why must you squander your best parts, show?

Actually what’s at the end of these paths is a bit different: A time-limited idol.  Expires at the merge.  Ok, decent enough reward, but without any randomness, you know there’s going to be a price.  And that price is that you’re getting sent to a different tribe at random (though presumably no the one you came from)!  Yes, for the first time in the new era, we’re having something akin to a tribe swap!  Granted I’d still prefer that it be a full-cast thing, either random or through schoolyard pick, but I’ll take what I can get.  Moreover, this now adds an element of danger to being sent on a “Journey”.  Yes, there’s always a risk of some sort to it, but it’s mostly stuff that can seem really abstract, like the vote loss potential.  Being swapped to another tribe is a fear as old as tribe swaps, however, and thus a bit more visceral.  Getting people to think twice about even GOING on the “Journey” is an element I’m happy we get to explore moving forward!  

The drawback, obviously, is that the people it first affects are screwed, with no real way to anticipate said screwing.  That said, both the way the show handles it, and the tribes themselves, help mitigate how swap-screwed these three players are.  On the show’s end of things, giving these players an idol that is specifically time-limited to only work in the Tribal phase is a genius idea.  Yes, it’s in many ways screwing over a player’s game, but also giving them a lifeline to maneuver and/or cause chaos.  They had the means to save themselves from at least one vote; if they go out immediately after said swap, that’s on them.  It could be disastrous for their game, or an opportunity to make bonds with another tribe as well as your original one.  How it pans out is up to the player, the show just provides adequate tools to do so.  

Regarding how the tribes themselves don’t swap-screw everybody, let’s start at Ratu, who come across as the least-united of the tribes.  By that, I mean they don’t openly talk about how united they are in confessional.  They get Carson, helping strengthen them for challenges while providing a prime puzzle-solver (not that Ratu was particularly weak in that area, but it was definitely not where their strengths primarily were, and losing Jaime is not that much of a loss challenge-wise).  Carson also plays the situation well, presenting himself as on the outs with Yam Yam as tribe leader, and not mentioning his idol.  Very plausible lies, at least to get him to the merge, and for once, it’s ok to say you didn’t get anything from the island, given how unprecedented the swap itself is in the new era.  

Our larger commentary on Carson’s arrival comes from Matthew.  Having set up that whole elaborate bonding moment with Jaime in the last episode, he’s naturally a bit upset that she’s now not on his tribe.  Undeterred, however, Matthew decides to set about bonding with Carson.  He tells us information is power in this game.  He’s correct in this assessment, which is why you should guard information closely, and use it strategically.  Then Matthew tells us that he’s going to share information with Carson, aka exactly the OPPOSITE of what you should do with power in this game!  

Ok, ok, in fairness, what Matthew is ACTUALLY talking about doing is much smarter.  The “information” he shares mostly isn’t real information.  He does tell of Brandon’s idol find and play, but then tells of Jaime’s finding of his fake, playing it off as the real idol.  This is a much more solid plan.  All the “information” he gives Carson is either so outdated as to be pretty much worthless, or patently false.  At the same time, he creates a bond with Carson, while also obfuscating his idol.  About the only negative of this strategy is the possibility that Carson throws Matthew under the bus, but given that Matthew seems to be the most socially-connected on the tribe, I doubt that’s a huge risk.  So yeah, good strategy on Matthew’s part, just described by him in probably the worst possible way.  

Tika, despite the Sarah rift, is much more united in their distaste for Josh.  Josh wisely doesn’t tell Tika about his idol, but also pulls the “Personal Trainer” card, claiming this as his occupation.  This is a lie that Tika does not buy, mostly because they overheard Josh saying he would do the snake maze two episodes due to his job requiring “steady hands”.  Somewhat plausible for a personal trainer, but not the most likely skill set.  This combined with his timeline of his life leaving a lot of room for medical school leads the tribe to the correct conclusion that Josh is a doctor, and given that he lied to them, untrustworthy.  Not since landscaper Gary Hawkins of “Survivor Guatemala” has a cross-tribe lie about one’s occupation been so impactful.  

To be fair, Josh probably would have been targeted even without getting caught in a lie.  In case you haven’t noticed, Tika is not doing too well in the numbers game.  They’re quickly becoming the disaster tribe of the season, and not wanting to leave or be grossly outnumbered come the merge, they need someone else to eliminate, and Josh is prime meat in that category.  Granted, if Tika lost AGAIN after eliminating Josh, they’d be forced to eliminate someone from Tika regardless, but still, some logic.  That said, Josh is a physical powerhouse, something Tika has been in DESPERATE need of challenge-wise this whole season.  Granted, their puzzle-solving prowess is lessened without Helen and Carson, but Yam Yam and Sarah are not slouches in this area either.  Add onto that an exploit of mistrust from Sarah, and if Josh plays this well, he might be safe even without his idol.  Though note that I say IF.  

Jaime is probably in the worst spot out of all those swapped.  Soka retroactively made a good decision sending Josh on the “Journey”, since the united four remain together, but I’m not giving them strategy points for doing so.  They had no way to predict that would happen; they just got lucky.  Soka, meanwhile, probably got the worst end of the trade in terms of challenge ability, and while they do still have Danny, challenges will likely be more even now, putting Jaime at more risk of going to Tribal Council moving forward.  That said, if Jaime plays well, she could exploit the fear of a couple to split the tribe, thereby saving herself without the idol.  Though again, note that I say IF.  

While Jaime also wisely does not say she has anything from the “Journey”, Soka is the only tribe we see to actively not believe this.  Danny searches her bag (though all but Jaime herself agreed to the plan).  He comes up with nothing, though as Matt correctly notes, Jaime could just be keeping her idols to herself.  I’d say Jaime is in the toughest situation of the three, but again, there’s some exploits here.  

Despite the good things the “Journey” has brought so far, it has also taken time away from us.  After those brief interludes with the new tribes, we cut straight to the immunity challenge.  We don’t even get commentary about the new tribes from them at the challenge.  The best thing to come out before Probst explains the challenge is Lauren’s epic pose with the sword on the ride in.  

As the presence of boats would indicate, we have a water challenge today.  One tribe member at a time swims out to a platform, jumps off to get a key, crosses a balance beam afterward, then swims to the end platform.  Once all four tribe members and keys are there, they must solve a manta-ray shaped puzzle, with the first two teams to do so winning immunity.  Say it with me now: Pretty bog-standard challenge, but at least the puzzle is slightly interesting.  

After Matthew FINALLY says “Hey, maybe I SHOULDN’T overtax my shoulder!” and sits out of a godforsaken challenge after the first one, we get off to the race.  This is the sort of challenge where you just don’t want to screw up, as evidenced by Soka cruising to an easy victory by just steadily running the course without any mistakes.  Ratu is shown to make the most mistakes, first with Lauren missing a key on her jump, but then continuing the course anyway.  She’s allowed to do so, but one other tribe member must then run the course AGAIN to make up for this.  Yam Yam helps even the field by sucking on the balance beam, only for it to turn out Kane ALSO sucks on the balance beam.  A for-once solid performance by Carolyn evens things back up, with Tika getting a slight head-start on the puzzle.  If you listen to Probst, however, you’d think Ratu was way behind in getting to the puzzle, when it was maybe 30 seconds at most based on the footage.  

Normally even this slight edge would be enough for a Tika win, but it seems they really did get rid of their puzzle prowess by voting out Helen and losing Carson.  It’s still pretty close, but Ratu edges out second place.  Josh, therefore, is in hot water.  While they don’t know for certain if he has anything, Tika wants to play it safe and lull Josh into a false sense of security.  Sarah summons her best acting chops to tell Josh that they want to work with him.  Unfortunately, she summons the acting chops of Ben Stein, and gives one of the least-convincing performances I’ve ever seen on this show.  No, Sarah, LESS emotion!  You don’t want to overdo it now!  

You would think that Josh would pick up on this, and based on how the episode ultimately plays out it’s possible he does, but we certainly never see it.  Instead, our misdirection comes courtesy of Wackiness Incarnate, Carolyn.  You see, they need a plausible alternate vote story for Josh, and given Carolyn’s weakness in challenges, coupled with her behavior at camp, she’s the obvious decoy boot.  All three agree to do this, and Josh, sure enough, tries to exploit what he sees as a crack.  He tells Carolyn about his idol, which I don’t object to.  Better to save it if you can, and if you can use that information as leverage, so much the better.  What I WILL knock Josh for is promising to use it on CAROLYN!  I don’t care how solid a plan seems: When you are the only person outside of a tribe that has been together this whole time, you DO NOT use your idol on anyone but yourself!  Threaten people that they may GO if you play your idol, but you would be one of the biggest idiots to be voted out after playing your idol for someone else.  

Josh may get clued in, however.  What I neglected to mention in the Carolyn bluff plan was that this was Yam Yam’s brain child.  Moreover, it wasn’t so much a discussion as a “Here’s how it has to be.”  This, naturally, has Carolyn upset, and considering telling Josh, feeling she can’t trust Yam Yam anymore.  I can see where she’s coming from, but for once this season, this is a clear-cut decision: Vote for Josh anyway.  Worst case scenario, he plays his idol on himself and Sarah goes home, since you proposed that as a possibility to him, and it’s the only really plausible one he has.  Best case scenario, you keep the numbers of your original tribe.  Yeah Yam Yam did not have the best diplomacy skills there, but are you really going to trust the guy you just met maybe a day ago over the guy you’ve been with from the start.  

It seems it wasn’t just Sarah who needed acting lessons: The whole of Tika needed them, as evidenced by this Tribal Council.  Sarah showed it before, and I’ll lump Josh in there for his “Personal Trainer” lie getting caught.  But after Josh gives the usual talk to Probst about the trouble he’s in due to the swap, Yam Yam and Carolyn get in a fight so fake, I was certain I’d accidentally switched to a wrestling show!  Yes, it know it proves semi-real later, but Yam Yam at least seemed like he was trying to fake it, and Carolyn not that different from him.  But in addition to bad acting, we get bad moves!  Fake as it is, this argument is a saving grace for Josh.  A crack he can exploit.  All he has to do is leave himself out of it, so naturally he interjects into the argument to talk about how he’s avoiding the spotlight and not in the argument.  Way to avoid drawing attention to yourself by drawing attention to yourself, my dude.  

Given Josh’s increased screen time this episode, it’s safe to say I thought he was really going to do a dumb and play his idol for Carolyn, possibly necessitating an update to the “Dumbest Player Ever” list.  Josh wouldn’t take the top spot by a long shot, but he might at least have made top 10, if not top 5.  Instead, Josh takes the safe route, and plays the idol on himself.  Whether Carolyn tipped him off we don’t yet know, but it’s possible, as she voted with him.  Sarah therefore ends up going, and sad as it is to say, I’m not overly sorry.  Again, nothing against Sarah.  She seems perfectly nice.  But compared to the rest of the players on this tribe, she was the least exciting character-wise (while we rarely hear from Josh, it’s at least decently memorable when we do), and probably out soon after him even if she succeeded.  Moreover, her exit means that the overpowered “Inheritance Advantage” was POINTLESS, and I’m very happy for that.  Unfortunately, I get the sneaking suspicion that the show is going to put it back in, if not on this season than a future one.  Hopefully it’s the latter, and the tweak how overpowered it is.  

Really, the one thing that majorly upsets me about Sarah’s exit is that it doesn’t feel narratively satisfying.  After the Helen vote, Sarah was clearly the underdog of Tika.  She had that great confessional last episode about the challenge needing to go perfectly for her to have a chance to save herself, only for exactly that to happen.  This episode, she stops being the main target due to Josh getting swapped to the tribe.  All this was setting up what looked to be a great “Underdog comes back to gain power against incredible odds” story.  An oldie but a goody.  So for her to just get a relatively unceremonious vote-out just feels wrong somehow.  Sorry Sarah, if you’re reading this.  

Can’t deny, this episode is a step down from the previous few.  Not bad, but a larger focus on twists rather than players left everything feeling rushed.  Then, we had bad gameplay built up, only to fizzle out into normal gameplay, which feels like a letdown.  And, to add insult to injury, yet ANOTHER woman voted out pre-merge!  Can we please fix that soon, though in a way that doesn’t involve the potential medical evacuation of Matthew?

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.