Ooh, Peter. Peter, Peter, Peter. You’ve got the vestiges of a good “Survivor” player in you. When you’re knocked out of the power position, you clearly know what you’re doing, and go note-for-note in the direction you need to. But give you an ounce of power, give you a glimmer of hope, and you become nigh-on insufferable.
Don’t believe me? We get a prime example of “good player” Peter at the start of the episode. We begin at Chan Loh, since the vote off of Alecia was SO inconsequential that we don’t need to see any of To Tang’s reaction to it. Joe seems to have some trouble with his finger, and so with much fanfare, Dr. Peter is brought over to examine it. The whole thing doesn’t seem severe, but Peter admits in confessional that, while he’s still out to get the rest of his tribe, he needs to keep that on the down-low. He’s the obvious next target, and to get out of that position, he’s going to need to make himself useful. Playing up his “doctor” role might just help endear him to his tribe, especially as evidenced by Debbie asking what they’d do without him. When you’re in the position Peter’s in, the best way to play is to keep your head down, make yourself useful, and hope you don’t go to Tribal Council. It worked out for Ethan Zohn on “Survivor All-Stars”. In other words, in at least this one instance, Peter is playing things exactly as he should.
Neal, however, is playing like a decision-maker in the head alliance should, and not believing a word of whatever Peter says. Debbie may be swayed, but Neal refers to Peter as a cancer, and thankfully not in the zodiac sign way. No, Neal decides that, if Peter is the main threat to the alliance right now, then Peter needs to not have the hidden immunity idol. Neal, therefore, concludes that he should have the idol, and starts looking around significant looking trees. It’s not long before he happens on a not-very-well-hidden clue. Maybe it’s just that the blue wrapping for the clue made it stand out more than red or yellow, but it seemed like, where the other clues were hidden deep in their respective trees, this one was just kind of lightly shoved in there. In any case, the clue leads Neal to digging up the box, which leads to him discovering the need for a key, which leads to him finding said key, which leads to him getting the idol. Pretty much the same story as at the other camps, though this one isn’t dragged out nearly as long. Neal has little to no reaction to the new twist with the idol, other than to say that this means he’ll have to look extra-hard for an idol, or at least someone else who’ll play it with him. Though he does get in some words about how this gives him a certain amount of power, compared to the arrogance often shown on this show, it’s quite mild.
It seems even MILD talking about being in a power position is enough to trigger a switch, however, as that’s exactly what happens. As advertised, everyone drops their buffs. It’s always nice for a switch to happen, since it helps prevent dull Pagongings later on, but at this point the switch methodology itself isn’t very interesting. They’ve at least dispensed with the damn show-offy colored eggs originating from “Survivor Cook Islands”, but now it’s just “Pick a random buff.” every time. Come on, guys, give me a school-yard pick for once! Make things interesting and different! Are you just turned off by “Survivor Gabon” that much?
“But surely,” you say, “this one will have SOME intrigue to it! After all, there’s an uneven number of people, and no Exile Island to send them to. Probst admitted as much to everyone there. No doubt this will lead to an epic twist of awesome proportions!” Well yes, not having an Exile Island, and not wanting to have uneven tribes does make for a lot of creative scenario possibilities. Of the myriad of solutions before production, they go with… Adding in what is basically an Exile Island, and just playing it the same old way. Yes, there is one To Tang buff hidden amongst the Chan Loh and Gondol buffs, and whoever draws that must go the way of Stephenie LaGrossa (“Survivor Palau”), and live at the crappy camp by themselves. Unlike Stephenie, however, the person at To Tang will get to avoid Tribal Council. They will not compete in the immunity challenge, and they’ll instead rejoin the losing tribe from this episode. Basically exactly how it worked on “Survivor Exile Island”, “Survivor Fiji”, and “Survivor Gabon” when they did their switch-ups. How original. I know, in all fairness, that it’s not a bad way of doing things, and the fact that Exile Island wasn’t a part of this season before now means that it comes as a sadistic twist to the players this time, but I was hoping they’d go a different direction. Give us a switch-up like we’ve never seen before! Instead, while such a switch-up has been absent for a while, we still got something repeated. I’m probably alone on this, but it felt like a bit of a letdown.
If the method of switch-up is disappointing, though, the results certainly aren’t! We’ve got a fairly even switch-up this time around, with both tribes being fairly evenly matched in both challenge ability and strategy potential. The new Chan Loh keeps things very even, retaining Neal and Debbie, and gaining Jason and Cydney from To Tang, and Michele and Nick from the old Gondol. Meanwhile, the new Gondol has kept Tai and Anna, while gaining Peter, Aubry, and Joe from the old Chan Loh, leaving Scot as the only old To Tang member on Gondol. As I say, fairly evenly matched all around. Chan Loh may have a SLIGHT strength advantage, but even that’s negligible to a large degree. Still, both tribes are intriguing. There’s a clear 2-2-2 split at Chan Loh, making it impossible to shake out who’s on top, but should make for some interesting politicking. More unbalanced is Gondol, where the old Chan Loh would seem to have an advantage, having the largest single block of any original tribe. However, that block includes Peter, who’s stated in no uncertain terms that he wants to undo his tribe, and could very easily flip away to get rid of Aubry and Joe. Meanwhile, you’ve got Scot, who’s on his own, and while you do still have two original Gondol, Tai and Anna weren’t exactly paired up in any way. So, you’ve got a lot of different dynamics that could happen here. My guess would be that Peter would play the smart game, and use this time to exact his revenge on his former tribe, since he’s at the bottom there regardless, and probably pull in Scot as another swing vote. Tai and Anna would probably stick together, since they don’t want the old Chan Loh to overtake them, and get either Aubry or Joe voted out. As we’ll see, though, that may not necessarily be the case.
Before we continue our intrigue, you may notice that I’ve neglected to mention someone. Or maybe not. She hasn’t had much screen time. Fair Julia is nowhere to be seen on either tribe. by process of elimination, she drew the unlucky To Tang buff. Yep, the youngest person out here is the one who has to live on their own. Tough breaks. It also means, as Michele notes, that the women’s alliance of Gondol, which had seemed poised to run this game, has now been completely split up, making them easy pickings no matter who loses. Will they be good enough to weasel their way back together, or is the luck of the buff against them? Time will tell.
One positive to say about this season is that, apart from some bullying of Alecia on the parts of Jason and Scot, this is a very jovial season. Despite the new Gondol probably being the more fractious of the new tribes, things start out copacetic, with everyone admiring their new camp, and all seem to be bonding well. Tai, having evidently gotten over the loss of Caleb, now sets his sights on Scot as his new boy toy, under the guise of lifting him up to a high tree to get mangoes. Scot initially doesn’t seem too keen on the idea, but since he goes for it later, it all seems pretty good. Speaking of Scot, he once again proves his “Not a brain” thing by thinking that he’s going to be on the bottom of this tribe, just because he has no ally there. Dude, have you watched ANY “Survivor”? In these situations, the person with no ally is ALWAYS the swing vote! Between that and your strength, you’re the safest out of anyone on this tribe!
Dissension begins with Peter, who, now that’s he’s in a position of power, has slipped BACK into “Bad Strategy Mode”. Specifically, he’s the one rallying for the former Chan Loh to stick together and target the old Gondol members, particularly since if they lose, Julia, another old Gondol member will be coming back into the fold. Not a bad concern, but this ISN’T the smartest strategy for you, Peter. By making it a tribe vs. tribe thing, and giving your old tribe an advantage, you pretty much guarantee getting picked off at 5, if not sooner, and give yourself less room to play by not trying to form a multi-tribe coalition. He floats the idea of voting off Anna to Scot, who seems on board, but Aubry is a bit concerned. She sees Peter’s point, and certainly doesn’t want the old Gondol becoming a rival to her and Joe, since the pair would then become targets, but Peter also can’t be trusted. He needs to be gotten rid of at some point. That said, she doesn’t say too much about it, and I think the smart move is to stick with Peter for at least this vote. Peter does need to be gotten rid of at some point, but now might be a bit premature, since Scot could then just go to the old Gondol and pick off you and Joe, should you next lose. NEXT vote, it might be good to consider getting rid of Peter, but better to keep it simple for this first vote. Still, you have to admit, intriguing dynamics! Damn, this switch gave us some exciting new talk!
Things are pretty happy-go-lucky at the new Chan Loh as well, with Debbie showing off all the amenities their camp has, like… a chin-up bar. Ok, not what I’D consider the biggest positive of their camp, but if that’s what you want to focus on, Debbie, far be it from me to judge you. Once again, though, Debbie proves why it’s best not to assume she’s just crazy, by quickly setting out to keep herself and Neal safe. Since it’s likely that the old To Tang and Gondol members will stick to whom they know, she needs to court one side. She chooses To Tang, which makes sense, since they already have fewer options. Debbie starts out by courting Cydney, in a way you wouldn’t expect. Debbie admits that she can tell that Cydney is more than just a pack of muscles, which Cydney ultimately does not deny, despite keeping that side of her under wraps for most of the game so far. After checking in with Jason, Debbie seems to have done her duty in keeping herself and Neal safe. Excellent work.
After a quick scene at Gondol where Tai gets his wish in getting Scot to help him get mangoes, we see that Anna is no slouch in the social department either. Not being an idiot, she realizes that she and Tai are the obvious targets, given that Julia’s eventual return to the game is a big threat should Gondol lose this next immunity challenge. Therefore, Anna commences throwing Tai under the bus, spilling the beans about his idol-hunting first to Aubry and then to Joe. For the time being, it seems to work. Not a bad play on Anna’s part.
For a brief time, we also check in with Julia at To Tang, who’s not doing too well. With no one there to help take care of things, she’s become severely dehydrated, wheezing and trembling under the shelter. Normally, I’d brush this off, but since last episode, it’s clear that dehydration is nothing to sneeze at. Julia does eventually pull herself together, but also says that she feels like she needs the older people in this game to take care of her. For what’s effectively our first real Julia scene, it doesn’t make her look all that good. The woman’s obviously tough, and pulls herself together pretty well, but also come across like she needs someone to take care of her, showing the negatives of her age in this game. It remains to be seen, but I think Julia might just be toast.
Back at Chan Loh, it’s now Nick’s turn to once again egotistically profess how good he is at the social game. This time, tough, he actually backs it up, going to talk to Jason about the pair forming an alliance, bringing along Michele and Cydney to make a majority. Jason certainly entertains the idea, and it’s not a bad plan, just kind of standard. While the dynamics on Chan Loh aren’t QUITE as interesting, given that, as Nick says, it’s a simple 2-2-2 split, there’s still debates to be had about which side is better and who Jason and Cydney will go with. On the one hand, as I’ll discuss at the end of the episode, it seems like To Tang and Gondol teaming up would be the smart move for both of them, but on the other hand, Cydney was basically left out of Nick’s conversation. That personal bond with Debbie might swing things.
After the obvious confessional of Jason talking about how good it is to be in the power position, it’s time for our challenge, which, in a first for this season, isn’t all that exciting. Two members from each tribe swim out to untie a fishing net with 14 wooden fish puzzle pieces in it. Once the net is back to shore, two other tribe members untie the fish from the net, hook them onto a pole, and carry it up the beach, where the remaining two tribe members try to solve a fairly complex puzzle with the fish. First puzzle solved wins immunity. Not to say that this challenge is bad, since that puzzle is really cool, and it is largely original, but it just doesn’t feel all that big or interesting to watch. It does remind me somewhat of the fishing challenge from “Survivor Samoa”, particularly in the puzzle, but I can’t say it really copies any previous challenge, so points there.
Once again, this episode does a fantastic job of giving us evidence for both sides going to Tribal Council. Admittedly, with all this talk of the threat of Julia coming back to Gondol, the smart money is on Gondol losing, but that doesn’t mean that one can’t see Chan Loh losing this one. It helps that this is a very back and forth challenge, keeping one on the edge of their seat the entire time. Ultimately, though, Peter and Anna can’t figure out the puzzle for Gondol, and lose the whole thing, despite the impressive performance of Scot carrying the entire fishing net by himself.
When we return to Gondol, the team as a whole is dejected, but overall keeps a stiff upper lip. Unsurprisingly, Peter, Aubry, and Joe are debating who needs to go. Aubry and Joe seem to be more for getting rid of Tai, having bonded with Anna. Peter, however, sticks in his opinion that Tai is valuable as a provider, and thus Anna should go. Normally I’d say that Peter, being a possible target himself, should just keep his mouth shut and go with what Aubry and Joe want, but he states his opinion in a pretty modest way, doesn’t force the point too much, and Aubry and Joe seem willing to listen, so I guess it was ok. It’s certainly enough to sway Joe and Aubry agrees, making Anna the target.
But of course, the good stuff from Peter can’t last. Sitting by the fire with Tai and Anna, he flat-out ADMITS that the old Chan Loh are sticking together, and that either Anna or Tai is going home. Peter, did you learn NOTHING from your previous Tribal Council? YOU DO NOT LET THE PEOPLE YOU’RE VOTING OUT KNOW YOU’RE AGAINST THEM! Is that REALLY that hard of a lesson to learn?
Sure enough, Peter’s blabbermouth once again comes back to bite him in the butt, as Tai comes to the conclusion that the rest of the audience has: Peter is an arrogant prick. Partly out of wanting Peter gone, partly out of not wanting to leave with the idol in his pocket, Tai pulls it out for Anna and the newly arrived Scot to see after Peter leaves. He says he’ll play it that evening, and that then if the three vote for Peter, he can be gone. Not a bad strategy, all things considered, and I admire Tai’s willingness to play to idol, but I’m not sure it’s Tai’s best move at this point. Like with Peter, it would get his old tribe in the majority, but that means that he’s still on the bottom of their group. Furthermore, you should never play the idol if you don’t need to, and I don’t think he has to this time, and not just because he’s not the target of the alliance. If Tai thought about it a bit longer, he might have realized that this arrogance of Peter’s probably annoyed Aubry and Joe as well, and that the pair might be willing to vote him instead, especially if he and Anna swear to vote out Scot afterward. They don’t necessarily have to keep that promise, but since Peter is a threat to them, Aubry and Joe might be tempted. Then you get the majority, and you keep your idol. All good!
While it seems set that Peter’s going home, Aubry throws another monkey wrench into the equation by telling Scot that Anna is the target. Having bonded with Tai, and knowing the idol rules thanks to Jason, Scot concludes that the idol might be more useful down the road. Hence, he goes to tai and encourages him not to play it, since he’s not the target tonight. This is where the new twist with idols is really fun to see. Now we’re getting new dimensions to strategy that we’ve never seen before, and it’s great to watch. Admittedly, I don’t know how Scot can promise anything, since he himself does not have an idol, but it’s fun to see conversations we haven’t seen before on “Survivor”. That said, because Scot can’t promise anything, it doesn’t help Tai as much as it seems, but the fact that he’s supposedly not the target does make Tai question his decision regarding the idol. Smartly, he decides to bring it to Tribal Council, and see whether or not it seems right to play it. this means that we’ve got a fair bit of mystery on our hands, so this won’t be the most predictable Tribal Council ever, but signs still point to Peter going.
We start off with Aubry making the same mistake as Peter, and revealing that it would be wise for the three old Chan Loh to stick together. She at least says it in a more subtle and not as arrogant way as Peter might have, and no one seems to mind, but watch yourself, Aubry. you’ve been playing a good, subtle game thus far. Don’t screw it up now.
Next, we get Anna and Tai pleading for their lives, Anna taking the more logical, strategic route, while tai plays up to people’s emotions, highlighting his status as provider and even tearing up a little bit at how hard he works. Nothing really spectacular there, just always nice to see dynamics play out in this manner.
Beyond this, it’s usual Tribal Council banter, but the mystery of the vote holds one’s interest. But what comment could Tai possible use to swing his use of the idol? Enter Joe, who’s decided to speak up for the first time in a while. And after hearing him speak, it’s clear that Joe really shouldn’t have. Joe puts forth the theory that, since he hasn’t really seen anyone looking for an idol, perhaps the twist this season is that there are no idols to be found! Joe, please don’t speak up again. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not as crazy an idea as it sounds. Fans have floated the idea of that very twist for years. But, it would never logically happen. Production gets too much drama from idols for them NOT to be in place. This is the “women’s alliance” assumption from “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” all over again. It’s quite easy to see why one could think that, but it’s completely the wrong conclusion, and that assumption could lead to disastrous results later on. Granted, this isn’t quite as bad, since once Joe gets back together with Neal it will become clear that there ARE idols in the game, but still, it’s just the clue Tai needs. Deciding that this ignorance is an opportunity not be missed, Tai opts to let Anna go, which I think is his smartest move. If you’re not the target, unless NOT playing the idol spells certain doom for your game overall, it’s best to hang onto the idol. Further, since Anna and the women’s alliance wanted Tai gone anyway, it’s not like he was particularly beholden to them. If he can make it to the merge with Scot, Tai’s in great shape. Not sure how Jason will feel about forming the super-idol, but it’s an interesting possibility, and gives everyone some room to play.
That said, as a fan, I am sorry to see Anna gone. We didn’t get a whole lot of her, but what we got seemed to be at least decent at the game. Conversely, Peter is repetitive and annoying on all accounts, and it’s be nice to see him gone. Next episode, it might be the smart move, but for now, we will simply miss Anna.
This, though, brings me back to Chan Loh, and the debate of which side Jason and Cydney should take. This episode makes it clear that they should go with Michele and Nick. The major threat of siding with Michele and Nick was the women’s alliance making it impossible to get a foothold. With founding member Anna gone, though, the old Gondol become fractured, and much less of a threat. Conversely, the old Chan Loh now becomes the major united front, which needs to be gotten rid of. Whether or not Jason and Cydney see this or get a chance to act on it, I don’t know, but if they’re smart, that’s what they’ll do.
Overall, this episode was a pretty good one. Oddly, the least interesting part was Tribal Council. I don’t know, while they did a good job of hiding who was going, it not being Peter felt anticlimactic. Still, there was excellent personal dynamics and good strategy on both sides, so no complaints about that. I look forward to what the next episode brings!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 
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