Greetings and salutations, readers! With the new cast announced, it is time to go to Ghost Island, and resurrect “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! It’s time once again to delve into a new “Survivor” cast, though this one is special for a couple of reasons. For the first time in my “Survivor” blogging career, I have neither returnees nor a themed division to talk about. Huzzah! On the other hand, this is also probably the cast I’m doing with the least amount of information. Usually, when EW.com and CBS.com release their cast bios, I write, which is what I’m doing now. However, EW.com, for whatever reason, is a bit scant on the information. No quotes, and short of a video on why they’ll win, plus the usual photos, hometown, age, and occupation, but nothing much about their strategies, favorite past contestants, pet peeves, or anything to make my job easier. So, I guess this will be a good experiment as to whether such information is actually helpful, or if it just confused me into making bad guesses. Let’s start off with…
MALOLO TRIBE
Brendan Shapiro (41, Physical Education Teacher, Herndon, VA): I hate to start off this way, but this is the order I have our new cast in, and unfortunately, we’re starting off with kind of a negative one. On the surface, Brendan seems like a nice enough guy. Reasonably fit, very affable, the sort of person you’d expect to have at least a decent shelf life on any other season. And were this any other season, Brendan might possibly be my winner pick. Unfortunately for him, this is not any other season, and one facet of this season in particular dooms Brendan. This is a season that skews INCREDIBLY young. Don’t get me wrong, “Survivor” isn’t exactly known for casting exclusively middle-aged people, but this season in particular seems to favor the young and carefree. Think “Millennials vs. Gen-X” without the Gen-X. This means that, at the ripe young age of 41, Brendan is actually the SECOND OLDEST PLAYER ON THE SEASON! BY ONLY ONE YEAR! Yeah, let that sink in. Just two years ago we had Joe “Getting it Done at 71” Del Campo competing on the island, and now the best we can do is someone 30 years his junior. But age alone does not doom Brendan. Hell, there are a couple of mid-30’s players I’ll have nothing but praise for. But out of all the players this season, Brendan is the one who strikes me as the most “paternal” and “take charge” (save perhaps one guy on the latter category, but we’ll get to him later), and on a season of the young and carefree, this is not good. Young people, especially young adults, bridle at someone trying to take control. Add onto that Brendan admitting to having a temper if provoked, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot no doubt about it.
Donathan Hurley (26, Caretaker, Kimper, KY): Moving on to a slightly more positive bio, we have our stock gay character for the season. Well, I say stock because “Survivor” seems to have an unwritten rule about casting no more than one LGBT character on a season (with some exceptions like “Survivor Vanuatu” and “Survivor Game Changers”, but the overall pattern remains one a season), but Donathan is actually a fairly intriguing character. As an openly gay man from a very conservative area, it would be easy for him to be grumpy and talk a lot about the hardships he’s had to endure (see Cumbie, Colton of “Survivor One World”), but he’s actually a pretty upbeat and optimistic, all things considered. Hell, that enthusiam’s so contagious that it had me in a humongous grin throughout his video. I’m not sure he’s got a lot of smarts, but that could just be his accent. At the very least he seems like he at least understands the basics of the game, and that could serve him well. As I’ll be reiterating a lot in this blog, this season is very much a “Go with the flow” type season. Overt strategists will not do well. Those who can fit with the vibe of the others while still strategizing in the background are the ones who will do well this season. While I’m not sure Donathan will strategize in the background, his enthusiasm at least spares him early elimination. I’d put him as a mid-merge boot, since his background and likability could make him a jury threat, but no earlier than that.
Jacob Derwin (22, Music Teacher, Brooklyn, NY): My doppelgänger in more than just looks, I was predisposed to like Jacob early on. Awkward “Survivor” nerds are my kind of people, and Jacob admits to fitting in that category. Truth be told, while I like the guy, I was initially writing him off. By his own admission, he’s not that great in terms of physical challenges, and I could still see this being a pitfall for him. However, this is a season with no shortage of physical threats, and so this may actually make it easier for a challenge sink like Jacob to hide. You can afford to lose a couple of strong people per tribe, and still be in decent shape. As such, given that he seems to have a good self-deprecating sense of humor, and enough smarts to be a background strategist while appearing to go with the flow, I predict Jacob to be a late-merge boot of the season. I’m not sure he’s quite got the killer instinct to take it all the way, but it also wouldn’t entirely surprise me if he won.
James Lim (24, Business Analyst, New York, NY): I’ve gone back and forth throughout the cast bios in regards to James. My initial instinct was that he was in trouble. It seemed like he’d lived a lot of life in those first 24 years, moving fairly frequently and knowing little but success. All well and good, but such a life seems counter to “Survivor”, where one has to expect things to not go your way. When I saw his video, he then seemed humble and self-aware, and I thought perhaps I was underestimating him. Then he mentioned not being entirely comfortable in the outdoors, and it put me at a loss. James is one of only a couple people this season I just can’t seem to get a read on, no matter what I do. If I had to put my chips somewhere, I’d give him the benefit of a doubt, and make him an early merge boot. People uncomfortable in the outdoors tend to be pre-mergers, but if James can overcome that, he should do pretty well.
Jenna Bowman (23, Advertising Account Executive, Venice Beach, CA): There’s usually a couple of warning signs that someone is doomed for an early boot. Talking about having a temper. Talking about not liking the outdoors. Talking about how modeling somehow prepares you for “Survivor”. Jenna, however, has added a new topic to the “doomed” lexicon: Talking about how you will DEFINITELY have enemies on the jury. Just when I was thinking we might have a season without an obvious first boot, Jenna gives us the gem that if she doesn’t have have e”at least five people on the jury who hate her, then she’s “playing the game wrong.” Actually, Jenna, I would say having such people on the jury MEANS you’re playing the game wrong. This may come as a shock, particularly to fans of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”), but to win the game, PEOPLE NEED TO LIKE YOU! If you’re coming into the game planning to be that antagonistic, then you deserve your ultimate fate, which is to be the first boot of the season. If you’re going to play that aggressive socially, then there’s no way you fit on, on this season in particular, but on any season in general.
Laurel Johnson (29, Financial Consultant, Minneapolis, MN): Laurel is a dark horse for me this season. She gives off a “Sophie Clarke” (“Survivor South Pacific”) vibe to me, which is normally a good thing. Sophie is an underrated winner, and quite skilled at the game. On a happy-go-lucky season like this, though, those skills may not be an asset. What makes me uncertain about Laurel is her insecurity about her physical prowess (though again, I’m not sure that will be a big detriment to her this season), and whether or not she’s able to adapt to the attitude of the season. My gut says she will, so I’d mark her as a sleeper strategist, probably a mid-to-late merge boot. She could even pull off a victory, if she plays her skills right.
Libby Vincek (24, Social Media Strategist, Houston, TX): Libby’s not going to be an immediate target, but she is definitely a pre-merge boot. Interestingly, though, it’s not for the reasons I’ll usually be saying that about people in this case. Libby’s issue is NOT that she’s a hardcore strategist. She knows enough to get by, but not so much that she clashes. Nor does she go against the “take it easy” tone of the rest of the cast. No, Libby’s problem is a much more common one, and that is the problem of religion. Religion, in and of itself, is not horrible on “Survivor”, but if you’re going to get by being a super-religious person, you either need to leave your religion at Ponderosa, or you need to have a lot of other religious people on the cast. Neither is going to be the case for Libby, and she’ll suffer for it. I doubt she’s the very first boot of the season, but I’d be a bit surprised to see her make the merge.
Michael Yerger (18, Real Estate Agent, Los Angeles, CA): Being well-established so young is an accomplishment Michael can be proud of. That said, I don’t see it translating very well to success on “Survivor”. The dude’s young, and seems determined to prove himself because of it. That could backfire easily. The feeling I get from this guy is that he’s the second coming of Silas Gaither (“Survivor Africa”), and that’s not a good thing. Michael is a young buck out to prove himself as a leader. This is hard to stomach on the more strategic of season, and with a season like this, where overt strategy is likely to be shunned, Michael is to be shunned along with it. His age probably keeps him around until the swap, but once that happens, his mouth and his strength will make him a goner.
Stephanie Gonzales (26, Graphic Sales, Ocala, FL): If you’re looking for someone who fits the vibe of this season almost perfectly, the Stephanie may just be the one for you. Generally cheerful, but with enough backbone and knowledge to make the right moves and get along with anyone, Stephanie is my female pick to win the whole season. This was a tough one, as I was overall unimpressed with most of the women this season, but Stephanie stood out to me for being both socially affable, but inwardly tough. This is a rare combination to find, but it’s probably the sort that can win a season like this. Stephanie will never be considered a threat, but with her background, she could easily pull out a win by talking about how much she’s overcome. Against this crowd, I think she will.
Stephanie Johnson (34, Yoga Instructor, Chicago, IL): In this Stephanie, we have the second coming of Shirin Oskooi (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and unfortunately, I don’t mean that in a good way. Don’t get me wrong, Shirin had some strategic chops, and I think Stephanie does as well. The trouble is that it’s immensely overshadowed by her kookiness. Don’t get me wrong, Stephanie is a lot of fun. I love her wanting to wear a lot of bright colors on the show just for the fun of it! And, if there was a season where kookiness might be embraced, strategy be damned, this would be that season. Where Stephanie runs into trouble is that such kookiness makes her stand out, and can be irritating in large doses. If Stephanie can live through the first couple of votes, she probably makes it deep. If she just can’t tame herself for a bit, as I suspect she can’t, she’s out pre-merge, and the show will be the worse for it.
NAVITI TRIBE
Angela Perkins (42, Army Veteran, Cincinnati, OH): It’s a bit awkward talking about Angela first on this tribe, but that’s what alphabetical order by first name will do to you. CURSE YOU, SEAN KENNIFF (“Survivor Borneo”)! The oldest person on this season, and the only one with a military background, Angela would seem to be dead on arrival this season. After all, what clashes more with a happy-go-lucky group than an older military type? And Angela very nearly fell into this category. Looking over everything, though, there are a few factors that save her. For one, while the season as a whole is very young, this tribe has more of the older end of that set, making Naviti less of a proverbial death sentence for “older” players. Second, and more important, watching Angela’s video, she does not have the sort of “drill sergeant nasty” personality one can often associate with military types. She and her tribe aren’t going to see eye-to-eye, but she’s not going to be in-your-face about it either. Couple that with a couple of other people more in-your-face annoying than she is, and Angela in my estimation makes the mid-merge. I don’t think she gets in a solid alliance, at least on her starting tribe, and probably gets voted out for being a swing vote, but she does make the mid-merge, at least.
Bradley Kleihege (26, Law Student, Los Angeles, CA): If the name of the game is fitting in, Bradley does not. I was initially pretty positive where Bradley was concerned, or at a minimum neutral. However, like Jenna, his interview had a quote that portends doom. Specifically, he mentioned only really getting along with other smart people/law students. Socially skills such as these rarely get you anywhere on “Survivor”, and with a season that seems particularly geared towards rewarding social prowess, I can’t see Bradley as anything other than a pre-merger, though given that this tribe has bigger fish to fry, I can see him making the swap.
Chelsea Townsend (24, EMT/Pro Cheerleader, Los Angeles, CA): Like James before her, Chelsea is another one I just can’t get a good read on. I had initially written her off as another preppy cheerleader, but something about he just seems tougher than that. Granted, she still tries in vain to make me believe cheerleading is somehow relevant to “Survivor”, but she doesn’t overly dwell on it, so perhaps she at least won’t be ungodly annoying. She’s another one I’m unsure about in terms of survival skills, but she proved me wrong on toughness, so maybe she’ll prove me wrong here as well. Like James, I’ll give her the benefit of a doubt. Since I get better vibes from her than from James, I’ll call her a mid-to-late merge boot.
Chris Noble (27, Male Model, Brooklyn, NY): Chris is the first of many people on this season going through a major transition and “finding themselves”. As such, let me take this time to state that such people DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”! “Survivor” is very much a game dominated by those who already know who they are, what they want, and how to get at it. They can plan ahead the best, and therefore they tend to do the best. That said, given the unthreatening nature of someone who can’t plan ahead that well, coupled with Chris fitting in well with the feel of this season as a whole, I’d say he’s got a long shelf life. Probably and early-merge boot, like most such people.
Desiree Afuye (21, Student, Brooklyn, NY): While on the younger side of things this season, Desiree is one of those “strong personalities” I mentioned earlier that may keep Angela safe. I had the feeling reading about her that Desiree might have a temper. Sure enough, there it is in her video. Desiree at least seems aware of her faults, and so will probably be able to keep them under enough control to avoid first-boot status. Plus, having lived outside the US for a significant period of time (and in a less-developed country no less), Desiree may hold up better under hardship than I first thought. However, time on the island wears on you, no matter how much experience you may have. Desiree’s temper will come out, and when it does, it will cost her. Going off a timeline, I’d say Desiree is set as yet another pre-merge boot.
Domenick Abbate (38, Construction Supervisor, Nesconset, NY): Strong personalities just go together, I guess. Were I to wager on who from Naviti would go first, Domenick would get my bet. The poor man has the bad combination of being both an older guy and a strong, abrasive, take-charge personality on a season that favors neither of these factors. I had thought maybe he could control it, but everything in his video says otherwise. Expect this guy to be a pre-merge boot, no doubt.
Kellyn Bechtold (31, Career Counselor, Denver, CO): Another oddball in this group, Kellyn finds herself in the older category, while also being one of the many people on this season going through a major transition and “finding themselves”. The latter point, and her general attitude save her from the pitfall of age, but need I remind you, such people DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”. That being said, of all the people in this category, Kellyn may have the best chance of any of them. Her professional life shows that she can be a dedicated leader and worker when needed, and hidden behind the guise of being carefree, could make Kellyn dangerous. That said, there is a danger that he desire for control could overwhelm this attitude, in which case Kellyn’s in trouble. However, I suspect that she’ll initially parlay this into being a lieutenant in the majority alliance, thus allaying some of her desire for control without sinking her social game. That said, this makes her the merge boot. We’ve seen a trend lately of the first boot at the merge being the lieutenant of an alliance who’s unlikely to get a hidden immunity idol of any sort. Kellyn fits that description to a “T”, and so will go in that spot.
Morgan Ricke (29, Marine Animal Trainer, Orlando, FL): Morgan is a lot of fun, and fortunately I think she’ll go deep. In many ways, she exemplifies the attitude of this season, being upbeat and slightly quirky, but still having at least a basic understanding of “Survivor”. She seems strong enough to not be a liability, but not so strong as to be a threat. A good combination and while I don’t see her being much of a leader, look to her as a mid-to-late merge boot. She’s here for a while.
Sebastian Noel (22, Fishing Guide, Satellite Beach, FL): Sebastian completes the triad of people going through a major transition in life and “finding themselves” on the show. Say it with me now: SUCH PEOPLE DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”. Much like his more muscular counterpart, Chris, though, I suspect Sebastian will be spared an early elimination. He’s strong, affable, and won’t rock the boat, so he’ll be brought along in the majority alliance. Once again, as a major physical threat, he’ll be an early merge boot. Too dangerous in challenges to keep longer than that, but useful up until that point.
Wendell Holland (33, Furniture Company Owner, Philadelphia, PA): If balance is the key to winning this game, then Wendell Holland is going to be the winner. I say this because he’s my winner pick for the men this season. Now, this might seem odd, as Wendell is ALSO on the “older” end of the spectrum on a season that skews young. Note, though, that especially on Naviti, it’s attitude more than age that matters. Despite Kellyn being “older”, I give her better odds than the younger Desiree, since the former’s attitude matches more closely with the season than the latter’s. Wendell falls into the same boat, but more so. He is 33, but he PLAYS young, and looks young enough to pull it off. The guy’s smart and driven enough to take charge of his destiny, but not so overt that he rocks the boat. He’s strong, but not so strong as to be an overt threat. And, most of all, he’s cheerful, so he’ll fit right in on personality. When it comes to strategy, though, he’ll play circles around these people, and that should take him all the way to the bank. I worry a bit that he doesn’t quite have the killer instinct needed to win, as he seemed a bit TOO happy-go-lucky in his videos, but I get the feeling that, as a super-fan, he’ll pick it up once the game actually starts.
And there you have it! Must admit, kind of an interesting bunch we have this season. There’s a very clear attitude, and it screams “non-strategic, character season”. Point being, with so many people more concerned about personality than overt gameplay, this will be a fun season to watch, but won’t bring much new to the table strategically. Better than being a season with nothing to offer, and should be a fun ride, to say the least. Put another way, this cast doesn’t break the season for me, but it doesn’t scream “Top 10 material” either just due to the cast. They can prove me wrong, but they’ll have to work for it.
As to Ghost Island itself, I’m still excited about the idea, as it pays good homage to “Survivor” history, and is basically the return of Exile Island, a twist I’m rather fond of. That said, I’m not sure this was the best cast to do it with. Not to say that they should have saved this twist for a returnee season (though that would have been a smart idea), but this twist needs a lot of people with intense knowledge of “Survivor” history. For all the claims that this is a season of “superfans”; and it should be noted that most people on this season have at least a basic understanding of gameplay; really only Wendell and Jacob seem overt in this area. Again, this cast could prove me wrong, so I’ll hold off on condemning the producers for this one just yet, but hopefully they prove me wrong come the start of this season.
Speaking of which, I would like to issue a disclaimer in advance: blogs may be very late this season. No, my cable no longer seems to be acting up, but I am currently taking care of the family dog, who needs to be walked as soon as I get home. Read: “15-10 minutes before ‘Survivor’ starts.” I will try to make the show on time each week I can, but her bathroom needs come first, and in that case I’ll just get the blog to you all ASAP. I solemnly swear that I will not read spoilers or other opinions until I see the episode, so you still get that patented “Idol Speculation” effect.
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
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