Idol Speculation: “Survivor Winners at War” Episode 11: That is NOT an Advantage

(This spot reserved for a respondent who correctly guesses the name and season of the player who provided the title quote for the blog).

Subtly, our show starts off showing a shadowy silhouette, sitting silently by the stove. Yes, I know it’s a fire, but “fire” doesn’t start with an “s”. This is Jeremy, eagerly awaiting news of who was voted off. While waiting, he informs us that he was of the philosophy of “don’t leave with an advantage in your pocket”, as well as him getting a bad vibe at the last Tribal Council, hence why he left. I can’t fault either part of that logic, though it still doesn’t change the fact that Jeremy’s name is now “mud” with his alliance. Sure enough, Jeremy can only find out about Tyson’s exit by counting who comes back, as no one is giving him anything. Compounding the issue, Jeremy takes up the mantle of “Adam”, and gets into an argument with Ben over pretty much nothing. Ben keeps mum, and Jeremy gets frustrated. Privately, though, Ben does confirm that Jeremy was the target, meaning he was right to leave. Ben also tells us that his five is solid, and seems like it can ride to the end. If you think this means the winning fivesome is getting through this episode unscathed, then I have some beachfront property in Kansas to sell you…

BOOONG!

Oh, that loud reverberation you just heard through the internet? That we be Probst hitting my “anti-break-in” defense shield. I had it installed after the last former player crashed through my wall. I knew reusing that joke from “Survivor One World” would get Probst running her to blabber on about Kansas, and wanted to test my defenses. Moving on.

Jeremy is not the only one butthurt about this vote, though he is the only one to link it back to “meat shields”. Look, I get that it’s good strategy, but man does it get annoying when he comes back to it over and over again. Kim and Michele are also quite upset. Kim is understandable, of course. She wasted an idol, lost the vote, and is now down in numbers. Not the position anyone wants to be in. But Michele is a bit out of left-field, since an analysis of the votes after the fact tells us Michele actually voted for Tyson, meaning she was on the right side of the votes. Now, this could lead some to argue that the way the votes were split last episode made since, since the minority could not have more than two votes to use (Denise’s vote being stolen, and Michele voting with the majority leaves only Tyson’s and Kim’s votes to worry about). After all, if they had Michele on their side all along, they could only throw two split votes and still be safe. I say if so, they did an exceedingly poor job of showing this, and it doesn’t seem like that was the case. Michele, you see, is very upset at being “left out of the vote”, something that seems odd for someone who voted with the majority. My conclusion, therefore, is that Michele saw which way the wind was blowing, and guessed correctly so as to not be on the wrong side of the vote in terms of numbers. Smart move for Michele, but again, it begs the question of why not split the vote 3-3. Anyway, Michele and Kim stew, but can’t really do too much at this point.

Besides, they don’t have to! Tony is going to do everything for everybody now! Yes, for all that I’ve praised the man for controlling his more manic tendencies, and having improved game performance as a result, one can only hold in that much manic energy for so long, and 27 days is Tony’s breaking point. With an idol played at the last Tribal Council, he figures that one must be hidden again, and so goes looking for it. I’m all prepared to break out my argument from “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, and ask why no one thought to set a guard or a tail, but then Nick comes in to save the day. Yeah, I never thought I’d type those words either. Nick has also got up early for idol hunting, and tries to spoil Tony’s plans. Tony, however, sends him off to hunt by the water well, and gets back to work himself. Jumping ahead a bit, Tony finds the idol, so inarguably his strategy worked. However, Tony sending off Nick isn’t going to get praise that easily. You see, this plan so easily could have gone off the rails. We have no indication that Tony had already searched the water well area, and there is a precedent for idols being held there. Tony might very well have sent Nick off straight to the idol, and screwed himself with that move. He didn’t, obviously, but the potential was there. This is like his move on “Survivor Cagayan”, where he gave Jeremiah a useless idol clue to put a target on his back, only to need to rush back and take back the clue since it could be easily called out as not belonging in the camp. It’s hard to argue with the results, but it so EASILY could have gone awry. This is why I’ve never fully gotten behind the “Tony is a genius” movement. He’s a good player overall, to be sure, and definitely brings the entertainment, but so many of his plans succeed through luck rather than foolproof strategizing that I just can’t give him too much credit for them.

We enter back into the game on a very human moment. As an internet critic, I am therefore obligated to snark at it. What’s that, Sarah? Being smart, fun, AND pretty isn’t enough for you? You need people to know that you’re creative? Having three envious, talented traits isn’t enough for you? Oh, you poor thing! Boo-stinking-hoo!

For all my snark, this is the second-best scene in the entire episode, and then only comes in second to a scene so hilarious it demands your attention. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Sarah has managed to cobble together a clothing line out of the materials they have, and so puts on a fashion show. Michele and Kim work as the models, while Sophie acts as MC, complete with a coconut microphone. It’s not laugh-out-loud funny, but still humorous, and makes up for it in a heartwarming human moment with our players.

Too bad Tony has to ruin it! Continuing on with the “Sarah and Tony rift” storyline that’s been building over the past couple of episodes, Tony snarks at Sarah’s fashion show. She brushes him off, and we instead see how Tony gets his kicks. The answer, apparently, is lying to people’s faces. Tony still wants Jeremy gone, but of course doesn’t want Jeremy to know that and try and pull something. Thus, someone needs to pretend to be a flip vote, and Tony, channeling his newly rediscovered manic energy, agrees to be that person, spinning a lie to Jeremy, Michele, Kim, and Denise about wanting to vote with them, but not being able to until now. Tony admits that he’s not an undercover cop, and so isn’t used to this, but his lie seems enough to convince Jeremy and Michele, since they talk privately about how good this is for them. Less convinced and Kim and Denise, since they’re the smarter of the foursome, and admit to wanting Tony out Good for them.

Over on the Edge of Extinction, we at first seem to be setting up for someone to leave, only for it to just be Tyson giving a very roundabout pep talk to Wendell. Then there’s some shade thrown at Adam, because it’s Tyson, and he can’t get through a sentence without ragging on somebody. Instead, we go to the old “Edge of Extinction” standby of “Sell an Advantage!” Natalie finds a bottle in the sand, with Parvati close behind. The pair find a clue to an advantage. It’s cryptic, but seems to indicate crawling and giving up. Naturally, the pair search as far away from the “give up” sail as it’s possible to go before realizing “It’s under the shelter.” I give them crap, but in all honestly that clue was pretty cryptic. Plus, they now face the challenge of getting everyone out of the shelter when no one has any incentive to do so. Parvati suggesting watching the sunset somehow works, and so Natalie gets the “advantage”. I use quotation marks, because this is really the “Survivor” equivalent of “GIVE US YER CASH!” They give the advantage to a player in the game. That player must pay an amount of fire tokens set by the finders of said advantage, or else not play in the immunity challenge, and not vote at Tribal Council. Steep stakes, especially when one has very little time to pay. Natalie and Parvati now have two considerations: How many fire tokens can they get, and who would be manic enough to try and scrounge up more?

Sure enough, after another heartwarming and humanizing moment where Nick talks about his negative reception during his season (being called “Vampire Donathan”, after Donathan Hurley of “Survivor Ghost Island”, who while a good player I like, I’m AMAZED got brought up on a legends season like this), we jarringly cut to the craziness that is Tony. This, without a doubt, is the funniest and best scene in this episode. Watching Tony’s excitement build and build in that little-kid way that only little kids and Tony can pull off is a delight. Then to see it all come crashing down, and the complete 180 of his mood? The cherry on top of the whole thing.

Natalie and Parvati want six fire tokens, and while they made a good choice of who to extort, the fact remains that Tony only has three tokens, and thus needs to get more. Worse, he needs to do it before the immunity challenge. Then Denise comes in with something called “Tree Mail”. I would tell you what that is, but honestly, I can’t remember the last time we had something called “Tree Mail” on this show. That’s how long it’s been: Even I, the “Survivor” fanatic, can’t rattle off this piece of trivia.

Needless to say, Tony has his work cut out for him. Tony first tries to beg off the people he’s convinced he’s with when he’s not, Michele and Jeremy. Michele, having none to give, spins Tony a lie about an “Extinction Advantage” as to why her tokens are gone. Frankly, it’s cockamamie, and I’m amazed Tony buys it. Live by the flimsy lie, die by the flimsy lie, I suppose. Jeremy is a little more generous, but still only gives one of his two tokens, showing that Jeremy hasn’t bought Tony’s lies quite as much as we think. Tony is able to bum two more off of Nick and Ben, promising to pay them back. Now, this was relatively easy for Tony. As such, you might even think it pointless. We don’t even see Natalie and Parvati buy anything with the tokens. But I say, no. This was a great use of advantages and fire tokens. The best twist play with the social and strategic game, and this definitely did that. Not only is there strategy and social game in play in who gets targeted with the “advantage” (strategy in how many fire tokens to get, social in the potential use of “you screwed me, so I will set an impossibly high cost so that you can’t play in the challenge or vote”), as well as in how you get out of it. Tony had to rely on both his friendships and his lies in order to dig himself out of a hole. A hole he didn’t dig, for once, but a hole nonetheless. Still, for at least having the potential to enhance social and strategic gameplay, this “Extortion Advantage” gets the “Idol Speculation” Seal of Approval. It is anything but pointless.

What IS pointless is our immunity challenge. Oh, not the outcome. Tony wins, and since Denise and Kim were targeting him, this will have some impact. Plus, now Tony can pay back two of his debts, since he won two fire tokens at the challenge as well. This creates a dilemma as to who he does and doesn’t pay back. After all, one person will be pissed no matter what, since they know Tony has fire tokens. We won’t see this dilemma play out or get resolved, but rest assured, it’s there. No, Tony winning makes the episode so far almost entirely pointless. You see, this episode had REALLY been playing up the “Tony goes back to his old ways and crashes for it.” narrative. It’s a good narrative. Solid, foreshadowed, and spectacular. Admittedly predictable, but when your flameout is this great, who needs misdirection. The flaw in building up this narrative is that no other outcome then feels satisfying, and that’s what we have here. Sure, we got a couple of scenes with people other than Tony, and I’ve tried to highlight them, but the fact is, the first half of this episode was “The Tony Show”, and so Tony not even being able to be targeted means that there was almost no point to what we’d seen so far. Of course, the show still has approximately half an hour to build up a new target, but then this brings us back to the problem of last episode. If you cram everything into the last half hour of the show, it feels rushed and wanting. Show, if I may offer some constructive criticism, EITHER GIVE US LONGER EPISODES, OR DON’T WASTE TIME ON STUFF THAT, WHILE ENTERTAINING, DOES NOT IMPACT THE PLOT! HALF AN HOUR IS NOT ENOUGH TO BUILD UP STRATEGY AND TARGETS IN A GAME AS COMPLEX AS THIS!

Ok, ok, rant over. Jeremy is the obvious target, since we know that he was meant to be targeted last episode. It’s revealed here that Michele is really the only one tight with him, as both Kim and Denise are more than willing to jump ship and vote out Jeremy. As such, the controlling five agree to throw two votes on Michele, just in case, while the remainder vote for Jeremy.

Jeremy’s counter-plan is not exactly the stuff of legend. With no wedge to drive, he decides to throw votes on Ben, because he annoys him. The tried and true reasoning for wanting to get rid of someone. That said, it’s not likely to win hearts and minds. What does sway things is Tony’s craziness, and here’s where it comes back to bite him in the butt. True, Tony’s true nature has reared itself, and while he’s taken some risks, it’s been nothing game-ending. It won’t be game ending tonight, either, since he’s immune, but now Tony has put himself in a losing situation. All Tony had to do was follow the example of Keith Nale and “Stick to the Plan”. He had a good setup. An idol, and a powerful fivesome he has inroads with. However, Tony’s got the itch to make a move, and so decides, for really no good reason, to vote out Sophie. Oh, he does GIVE a reason, it’s just that reason is stupid. Tony is only NOW concerned with how close Sarah and Sophie have gotten, and decides to target Sophie so that Sarah will be close to him. Now, you might wonder why this is stupid. After all, I praised this when Jeremy tried to off Nick to make Wendell close to him? Well, aside from the fact that that praise was qualified, with so many people left, Jeremy could have plausible deniability. If Nick had gone, he could have comfortably denied it, with no way to contradict him. With so few left now, though, Sarah could probably tell that Tony had turned on her. Do you think this will end well for Tony? I thought not.

Tony may have to make the smart move in spite of himself, however. Jeremy is not too trusting, particularly since Tony’s story involves him believing that both Kim and Denise have turned on him, which is a little far-fetched. That said, it DOES mean that after two more blogs, I can finally talk about the proper move here. Jeremy and Tony both have obvious best moves. For Jeremy, getting out Sophie breaks up the majority and gets rid of one of their idols, both of which he desperately needs right now. For Tony, as I’ve said, sticking with the Jeremy plan is the right move. No need to rock the boat at this juncture, especially when you’re so likely to get caught with your hand in the proverbial cookie jar.

Apart from Tony, everyone else has been kind of low-energy, and as a result we get a low-energy Tribal Council. Even Probst’s questions seem lazy, with him basically asking multiple people if they felt ignore, focussing on our supposed targets for the night (Jeremy, Michele, Ben, and Sophie). I’m sure he asked everybody, but asking in exactly the same way feels lazy. Vary it up a little!

Despite Jeremy having the most foreshadowing, I’m pretty sure Sophie will be going home tonight. It feels like it’s time, somehow, and we’ve been building to an epic Tony blunder. Sure enough, the split vote screws the majority, and Tony, Nick, Jeremy, and Michele band together to vote out Sophie. The right move for Jeremy and Michele, but Tony and Nick still lack an upside. Naturally, I’m upset to see Sophie go. Her snark was always good for a laugh, and apart from Denise, she was my favorite player left in the game. So, does this mean she has “Ethan Zohn” downside, in getting voted out without limited foreshadowing? Not exactly. While most of the foreshadowing was crammed in the back half of the episode, there WAS foreshadowing there, so Sophie’s exit does feel earned. Stupid move for some, but earned nonetheless. I think the better comparison is to Christian’s exit on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. You get why it happened, but the player it happened to was all but invisible in their boot episode. That said, Sophie has the decency to give us some comedy on her way out, pretending to get lost on the way to the snuffer, and complaining about crotch idols. She has to decide who didn’t betray her when willing her fire tokens, and so sends one apiece to Sarah and Kim. Smart choices all.

For all my complaints, this episode is an improvement. It was entertaining, even laugh-out-loud funny at times, and that’s always appreciated. Really, my main gripe is the gripe I always have with an “Edge of Extinction” season: it’s too crowded. Trying to fit too much into an hour time slot just leaves things feeling rushed and convoluted. This episode is better than some that have tried, but the show REALLY needs to make some deep cuts if they want things to be foreshadowed before the last half-hour again.

But flaws in the episode doesn’t mean we can’t have fun! My contest to identify the speaker of the title quote is still ongoing! Simply write the name and season of the player who spoke the quote used for the title in the comments! First to correctly get it gets their username at the top of the next blog. Remember, one entry per person, and I only use seasons of US “Survivor”.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.