Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 3: A Leg Up

Yeah, yeah, I know it’s a cheap joke, and maybe not in the best of tastes.  But Noelle is kind of a badass in a number of ways this episode, and if the joke is good enough for Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”), then it’s good enough for this blog.  

Reminiscing about Vanuatu aside, we actually can’t start off the blog for this episode just yet.  You see, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This is an incredibly minor one in the grand scheme of things, but since I did make a point to joke about it, I feel compelled to correct myself.  The special area between Jesse and his wife, now shared with Dwight as well, is the “Pineapple ZONE” not the “Pineapple ROOM”.  Again, minor distinction, but I feel the need to mention it nonetheless.  I still say my Spongebob joke holds water, though.  

Trouble abounds in the Pineapple Zone, however, as after Jesse and Cody celebrate everything at the last Tribal Council going their way, Jesse admits that he may have burned the bridge with Dwight by not clueing him in ahead of time as to the outcome of Tribal Council.  No, really, you think?

Sure enough, we see that Dwight is not pleased with Jesse, in talking to Noelle.  Jesse, while still wanting to work with Dwight, admits that the “Divorce Papers” are ready to be signed on his end, if need be.  Dwight, however, is not ready for a full separation yet, though perhaps a trial one.  He admits being burned by Jesse, but expresses hope that they can still work together in the future.  

Now, I’m all for not being too butthurt when you’re on the losing side of Tribal Council, but this may be taking it a step too far.  Don’t blow up at Jesse, certainly, but don’t just put all your hopes on him.  Bond with Noelle to become another tight twosome, and try and convince Cody to go for Jesse, since he’s now proven untrustworthy.  Better yet, if he’ll go for it, try and have Cody let Nneka go for challenge performance,  Then you’ve got the tightest twosome left on the tribe, and you’re set.  About the only overture we see of this for now is Dwight and Noelle becoming tight with each other.  A good start, but they say they hope Jesse goes with them, a strategy that relies too much on Jesse for my liking.  

Over at Dumbass, we see that Gabler is still not doing too well, sleeping on the beach apart from the rest of the tribe.  Per the tribe’s report, this is due to him not handling things well mentally right now.  This, in the eyes of Elie, makes him a liability, and thus she wants him gone next.  However, there is still the wrinkle of the idol, as there’s little doubt that Gabler won’t play it at the next Tribal Council.  He doesn’t seem like the type to hold it for a keepsake or a bluff down the road.  

But what if he didn’t play it?  Elie and Jeanine suggest that, since THEY were confused by the wording on Gabler’s clue before re-reading it, perhaps Gabler could be confused into believing his idol no longer worked.  Thus, in the presence of Sami, they suggest talking to Gabler as though his idol is no longer good, presumably banking on him not, you know, looking at the instructions he has free access to to double-check.  Kind of a flimsy plan, but hey, stranger ones have happened.  Look how many times Shan on “Survivor 41” was able to get her tribe to act against their own self-interest to her benefit?  Spin a tale like that, and there’s a chance it could work.  

Good as Elie is, though, she does not quite have Shan’s charisma, nor is Dumbass tribe as gullible as most of Ua that season, despite my joke name for them.  When Sami asks Gabler about his idol, Gabler correctly notes that it’s good for one more Tribal Council.  Sami then clues Gabler in on the women’s plan, informing him of the search of his bag in the process.  Gabler is infuriated that they went through his bag.  Not sure exactly why, apart from the two supposedly being in an alliance.  That part may be justified, but indignity at the bag search itself, not so much.  This has been staple “Survivor” play since “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and only become more common with the addition of idols and advantages.  Feels to me like most of the stigma went out the window a long time ago.  But hey, Gabler’s the victim here.  He’s entitled to his feelings.  And as Gabler says, he’s not an idiot, and so when Elie enacts her plan, Gabler plays along like he really does think his idol is no good anymore, to Elie’s satisfaction.  All while the men plot their demise.  Why must every psychologist on this show who isn’t Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”) suck?

Things are much more pleasant over at Coco, where James’ birthday is in show.  We even hear a bit of the tribe singing him the “Happy Birthday” song, something I’m amazed the show’s copyright-averse lawyers let through.  Cassidy talks about how things are one big happy tribe, but how that feeling is likely to go at some point.  James even muses about going to the rocks to look for an idol at some point, though Lindsay notes the stigma should anyone leave camp.  And so, they all sit around looking at each other.  Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) would be proud.  

Of course, things have to change eventually, and Karla spies her chance before long.  Lindsay, Cassidy, and Ryan are all out fishing, while James it taking a nap.  No mention of what Geo is up to, but perhaps since he thinks Karla’s on his side, he doesn’t care.  Either way, Karla goes off idol-hunting, wisely checking all the significant-looking trees.  With what seems very little effort (though admittedly this advantage was more well-hidden than the one on Vesi.  This one was less brightly-colored, as well as higher up the tree.), Karla finds a Beware Advantage, and debates with herself whether to risk it or not.  She describes herself as having played the “slow and steady” game so far, but acknowledges that she needs to take a risk at some point.  She’s just not sure if this is that point and, in a first for the show, puts the Beware Advantage back without opening it.  

I’m of two minds about this decision.  On the one hand, Karla has the LEAST to risk by potentially losing her vote on this tribe.  As the swing vote, it is unlikely that she would be targeted at the first few Tribal Councils this season, barring being a contributing factor to some challenge loss.  True, this does limit her power to determine the outcome, but an idol down the line can make up for that.  Plus, that assumes you’re GOING to Tribal Council, something that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon for Coco yet.  Not a safe assumption, but then you could also argue that it’s going to be a while before even the next immunity challenge, so Karla has the time (and the social capital) to figure things out.  As such, not going for the advantage baffles me from a strategic perspective.  

That said, however, Karla is out there and we’re not.  Perhaps there’s something we’ve not seen that makes Karla feel more at-risk in the tribe, and admittedly Karla has heard no silly phrases at a challenge yet, something she has to assume is still the case, all else being equal.  WE know about the bead thing from last episode, but KARLA doesn’t, and thus must assume she has to work with the other tribes to activate her idol and get her vote back, which she can’t guarantee at this time.  More than this, however, I applaud Karla for making the SMART move for her, not the FLASHY one.  If we assume that Karla has good reason to feel she’s at risk should the tribe lose, then going for the flash is an unnecessary risk.  Look how it nearly torpedoed Cody’s game last episode.  Karla does what she feels is best for her, and it’s hard for me to fault her for that.  Still, it would be a shame if she went back on that because it’s what she thought the audience would want.  

Back from commercial, we check in at Vesi, where the FEELS abound.  Nneka is talking about causes that are near and dear to her heart.  Specifically, she talks about a Nigerian refugee charity she works with.  It’s sweet stuff, and then for mood whiplash, you learn it was BURNED TO THE GROUND by some of the locals.  Jerks.  Anyway, Nneka says that’s what she wants to use her prize money for.  Short stuff, but sweet, and emphasized well by the flashback pictures.  

Can’t go too long without game talk, however, as Karla has decided to go BACK on what she said, and will instead do what she would tell someone on the tv to do.  Look, I’m all for changing your mind if you realize you did a dumb, and maybe that’s what Karla did but from what we’re shown, it’s her thinking like a viewer, rather than a player.  Fun for us, but from a strategy perspective, I can’t condone it.  First, Karla has a conversation with James about whether he would go for a Beware Advantage or not.  James kind of waffles, which Karla takes as a “go ahead” sign.  Why James isn’t immediately suspicious of this line of questioning, I don’t know, but the dude does appear to be half-asleep.  I’ll cut him the benefit of a doubt.  So, Karla finds out about the bead thing, and it’s not as natural for her as it was for Cody.  

Luckily for Karla, James was making a bracelet in relation to his birthday earlier, giving Karla the excuse to copycat the idea for her wife’s supposed birthday (which is actually in February).  James gives up his bead no problem, but Geo is oddly resistant to the idea.  Karla needs to trade him a bunch of her beads to get his one that she needs, but he does acquiesce in the end.  Still, this makes her believe she needs a different tack with Lindsay and Cassidy.  I’d say you could just come clean to them, to help save their alliance, but given that she didn’t with James, I guess she wants to keep the idol a secret, which I can’t fault too much.  Karla ends up trading an earring apiece to the women for their bead, which should throw up IMMEDIATE red flags for them!  Those were nice earrings!  Probably not too expensive, but giving up such a personal item for something so random as a bead seems, at best, problematic.  The women seem to buy it, though, so that just leaves Ryan.  

Like Geo, Ryan is reluctant to part with his beads.  Karla tries to do a “we’re exchanging keepsakes” thing, but when Ryan is only willing to offer her one of his socks (which, after a week without bathing, ew), she has to change tactics again.  This should ALSO make Ryan suspicious, but given that Karla’s tactic is to offer him something nice for his girlfriend in exchange, he eventually gives it up.  Thus, Karla has her vote back, and an idol no one knows about.  Not pulled off as flawlessly as Cody’s, but it seems to get the job done, and it’s tough to argue with results.  No matter how much you want to.  

Our challenge today is a carbon-copy of a couple of elements from “Survivor 42”.  Pretty sure some of the structures on the platforms are repainted ones from that season even.  Three tribe members swim to retrieve keys, one at a time.  They bring them to a platform, where the other two players use them to unlock a turtle puzzle they must solve.  The first two tribes to do so win immunity, as well as varying amounts of tools and fruit.  As standard and boring a challenge as you get in this era of the show.  

Even our misdirection can’t help us much.  I’ve seen weaker on the show, but this is not that great.  The trouble is two of our tribes, Dumbass and Vesi, have gotten strategic content this episode, while Coco has not.  Not a huge issue, so long as Coco dominates the challenge, but no!  They’re behind for most of it.  Thus, when Dumbass cruises to an easy victory, it’s clear Vesi is going back to Tribal Council, despite Coco being behind.  Once again, Nneka flubs the puzzle (and given she was the only common element in both puzzle portions, it’s clearly on her this time), just standing there watching while Coco pulls away.  

Really, the only cool part of this challenge was Noelle.  As she had to be on the swimming portion, and as we established that she can’t take her prosthetic in the water, she must go one-legged.  Not too bad overall but it will make one particular obstacle (getting up a series of crate stares before diving in) difficult.  Noelle, however, pulls it off effortlessly, or at least with no more effort than anyone else doing the challenge, and that’s pretty cool.  

But now, Dumbass must make a choice, choosing one person from each tribe to go off somewhere, presumably whatever the equivalent of “Shipwheel Island” is called this season, with each coming back before the next Tribal Council.  They choose Noelle from Vesi and James from Coco, while Owen volunteers for their own tribe.  As Owen is really the only one they have information on at this point, and he’s nominally on both sides (aligned with the men, but the women think he’s on board against Gabler), can’t fault them for not objecting too hard.  The gentlemen are kind enough to help Noelle hop one-legged into the boat, and I certainly hope that they’ll let her grab a new prosthetic before the island.  I don’t doubt James and Owen would be willing to help her, and the hike to the rock is not DIFFICULT per se, but doing it one-legged?  Brutal.  

Emotions remain the order of the day at Vesi.  Nneka breaks down about Noelle being the next to go, mostly because she’s not at camp to defend herself.  Everyone else, however, breaks down about the need to vote off Nneka.  While I don’t believe in making your tribe stronger by voting someone off (addition by subtraction, if you will), since there’s no guarantee anyone would do BETTER on a puzzle than Nneka, it can’t be denied that she’s earned a potential vote-off this episode after repeated poor challenge performance.  It may not help Vesi, but it certainly will hurt them the least in terms of challenges.  They also note that they have no more doubts about Noelle’s ability to perform in challenge.  You had doubts?  The woman’s a PARALYMPIAN for crying out loud!  Challenge performance from her should be the least of your concerns.  

Emotionally?  That’s another matter.  Nneka is the team mom that everyone likes.  Her boot is seen by nearly all as a cruel necessity.  Only Cody is on the fence, since Nneka is his ride-or-die.  Really, Cody’s the only one who shouldn’t want Nneka gone.  For Dwight and Noelle, they stay safe despite being the technical minority, while getting rid of Nneka keeps Jesse’s options open.  In his mind, he and Dwight are the power couple against the individuals of Cody and Noelle in this scenario.  Little downside for him.  

Over at The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we see that production did deign to let Noelle put on another prosthetic.  Good thing too, since the island is going back to its roots and having them hike up a huge hill, something that, while not impossible, would probably have violated the Geneva convention if forced to be done missing one leg.  Noelle goes over the backstory of her leg, and again, can’t complain.  Relevant to what’s happening on screen.  

This trip really is Noelle’s time to shine.  The parchment before the hike tells them to get to know one another, but we really only see Noelle talking.  At first I’m inclined to dock her points for spilling the beans to people she barely knows, but she is on the bottom, and she doesn’t actually give away that much.  She doesn’t tell the alliances, but only truthfully says she was left out of the vote.  This serves to make her seem, not unfairly, like a free agent, and so the men are open to working with her come the merge.  Of course, they should say yes regardless, but it’s still decent maneuvering on her part.  She may not get much in return, but she hasn’t given away as much as it would seem at first blush.  

Oh, and nice though this alliance is, I have no faith that it will last.  These gunshot alliances fail more often than they succeed.  Our closest equivalent last season would be the Hai/Drea/Lindsay one, and look how well that turned out.  

The hike may have changed, but the mechanism remains the same.  Everyone picks risk or not risk, those risking drawing a parchment out of a corresponding bag that either had an advantage or a lost vote.  Sensing a need (so perhaps she doesn’t have as much faith in Jesse as it seemed), Noelle asked the men to forgo their shot so she can have a chance to make it through and work with them.  This is a no-brainer for Owen.  With the men needing all the numbers they can get, he can’t afford to risk his vote.  As he wasn’t going to risk anyway, why not get at least a good relationship for the future out of it?  James is a bit more complex, since, as a part of a solid majority where his vote is not strictly necessary, he COULD risk his vote, and it might be better for his game long-term to have an advantage.  Still, he’s in a solid position either way, and it’s hard to fault him too much for not wanting to rock the boat, even with two people he’s just met.  Noelle gets her parchment and all head back to camp.  

After offering to be searched, which no one takes her up on, Noelle reveals it would not have mattered anyway.  Her advantage was hidden in her prosthesis, good for her.  It’s no Kellee Kim Bun Hiding Place from “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but it’s a good one.  Less good is her advantage.  A vote steal, where Gabler got an idol.  True, she doesn’t know what Gabler has, this is still useful, and at least has the edge of not being time-limited that we hear.  This does make me wonder what determines the advantage, though.  I could see it being a “each trip is a different advantage” thing, but I could also see it being determined by the number of people who risk.  Only one person risking gets a relatively weak advantage, two gets stronger but time-limited, and three gets stronger than that type of thing.  Either is plausible, and I’m curious whether this will be clarified in further episodes.  

The one drawback to Noelle denying risking her vote and getting any advantage is that, come the time to use it.  That could potentially be soon, since Noelle could still be on the bottom.  Tribal Council, however, throws that possibility out the window.  With the somber tone, there’s little doubt that the person people like more will be gone, which is Nneka in this scenario.  The only individual moment worth commenting on is the rare bit of levity.  As a political science student, Jesse becomes living at the horrible scale his tribe uses when discussing their levels of nervousness.  

Yeah, misdirection is not this episode’s strong suit, and Nneka goes without Noelle needing to use her idol.  I’m mixed on this.  It was definitely the smart move, but while I don’t dislike Noelle, I just found Nneka more interesting, so I am sorry to see her go.  She takes it all with good grace, but it’s sad nonetheless.  

And that really hits at this episode’s strength: The emotion.  While not missing, the misdirection was lackluster at best, and with the shortened time frame from the past two episodes, coupled with time devoted to The Island Formerly Known As “Shipwheel Island”, we didn’t get a ton of strategy talk, and what we got was very uneven.  The show worked with what it had, though, and you really felt the weight of each moment, and the pain our contestants were going through.  Thus, while perhaps not as strong as the previous episodes, this one was still solid and gripping.  A good episode, and we hope for more and better in the future.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.