Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 10: The Birds and The Applebees

I am hardly a defender of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  When folks call it “The worst season ever”, I tend not to put up much, if any, argument.  Its flaws are many, too many to list here, but I’m sure I’ll enumerate them the next time I update my season rankings.  That being said, it cannot be denied that the presence of Karishma on that season has done one service to the “Survivor” community.  That service being to make Applebees an automatic punchline.  And that, in its own small way, is a positive in my eyes.  

But we’re not here to talk about that season, we’re here to talk about “Survivor 46”!  I barely touched upon it last time, but given that things had to go to a revote, it was pretty clear that there was at least something of an intentional vote split, in case Hunter had an idol.  The only question to me was how many people were IN on it actually being a vote split.  Clearly all the Hunter votes had that intention, but how many of the Q votes thought he was a legitimate target?  An argument could be made for all of them, an argument could be made for none of them.  

The answer, it turns out, is that everyone except Liz was in on it.  Liz is, understandably, a mite peeved at all this.  Everyone tries their best to calm her down, with Venus stating that the plan happened last-minute, and there wasn’t time to let her know.  Plausible enough, though I’d be a bit skeptical given that, if the plan really WAS that last-minute, you’d expect at least one other person besides Liz to be left out.  I suppose it’s possible that she had a late confessional interview, and everyone else didn’t, but unlikely at this point, in my view.  Still, while clearly being pissed, Liz handles the situation relatively well.  More so than for some other situations we’ll get to in a bit.  

To her credit, Venus has a good read on the game, once discussion turns to why Hunter didn’t play his idol.  The prevailing theory amongst the group seems to be that he must not have had one, but Venus (who knows better) correctly surmises that Hunter just felt safe given how fervently Q was targeted.  Therein lies the paradox of Q: His erratic gameplay and general difficulty to live with make him a desirable target, but BECAUSE he’s so desirable, he makes a good smokescreen for whatever plan you have going on.  

Speaking of Q, despite what I said earlier, he does seem to be finally taking a chill pill.  Outside of Liz, who still holds a grudge for him “stealing her move”, most everyone seems kind of indifferent to Q.  He’s being more laid-back, which is probably a good thing.  Let the heat on you cool down a bit.  I might question him separating himself from the tribe THIS much, but given how deep of a hole he dug himself, a bit of separation might help his game more than anything else he could do.  That said, most everyone agrees that they’re in no rush to befriend him again, even if they aren’t as mad as before.  Tiffany says he’s a grown man, and if he wants to come back and make amends, he can.  

Only Maria seems willing to make an effort with him right now, in a scene eerily reminiscent of Terry comforting Abi-Maria on “Survivor Cambodia”.  Q being all about control, I expect him to try and run any plan Maria suggests into the ground, purely because it’s not “Q’s Game”.  In a good showing of growth, however, Q is actually pretty receptive to the whole thing, and polite throughout.  Praise be, the man is LEARNING from his mistakes, and we love to see it!  Q DOES tell us he wants to control his own game, but it’s in the same way Gervase was going to control his own game on “Survivor Borneo”; namely winning challenges.  Not the greatest plan, but again, without more work the guy doesn’t have a lot of options, and he IS one of the bigger challenge threats left, so I can’t fault him much.  

In the morning, we’re back to other strategy talk, as Kenzie reaffirms to Maria and Charlie that she’s still in on the “Vote Tiffany Out” plan.  We also get some reasoning as to WHY Kenzie wants to make this particular move, and to be fairer to her than I was last episode, there is some logic to it.  Kenzie admits that Tiffany is her closest ally, but that this also means their moves have been made in tandem, which could hurt her getting credit at the end if she doesn’t break away at some point.  Further, there’s the threat of the idol messing up a later attempted blindside.  Frankly, particularly in the modern era, these are fairly valid concerns.  My issue is now less with the move itself, and more with Kenzie’s TIMING!  

Yes, Kenzie, you do need to stake your own claim away from Tiffany.  But aside from the fact that voting her out entirely is not a prerequisite of that (merely leaving her out of a vote), you still need SOME people loyal to you.  I get that you’ve been bonding with Ben, and Charlie, and Maria, and all that, but SURELY you have more trust in Tiffany!  That’s a bond that should not be discarded until absolutely necessary.  Look at the case of Maryanne Oketch (“Survivor 42”). She had similar reasons to vote out a close ally, but she WAITED until much closer to the end of the game, when there was much less risk of being branded too untrustworthy and getting taken out herself.  If you want to pull off that sort of move, THAT’S the sort of timing you need.  Granted, the presence of Tiffany’s idol is a bit of a wrench in things that moves up the time frame a bit, but even then, Final 9 still seems a bit early, and you could flush the idol without betraying Tiffany.  The sort of thing you want to happen, but not actually play a part in, is what I’m saying.  

Off to our reward challenge, literally the FIRST since we merged.  Five episodes ago.  Then really, what was the point of merging?  The challenge itself is standard obstacle course fare, mostly involving sandbags.  Nothing much worth noting.  What IS worth noting is APPLEBEES!  The biggest reward of the season!  Probst rhapsodizes about the deliciousness of the food while our starving players salivate.  He notes that “This is what future players dream of.”  Gotta say, speaking as a fan who’s had his fair share of “Survivor” dreams over the years, Applebees never factored in once.  

Liz in particular is overjoyed at this reward, and not just because it’s food she can actually eat.  She notes that she and her daughter have “Survivor Sleepovers”, which involve going to Applebees before watching the show on Wednesdays.  She even has a regular order.  It gets the job done ok, but she’s no Karishma.  But I’m sure this is just product shilling, and will in no way be important later.  

The best thing about this reward?  Probst does not describe it pre-challenge as being at “The Sanctuary, Where Good Things Happen”. May that stupid slogan have gone and died in a fire forever!

With no puzzle at the end to equalize things, Q’s early lead does net him a win, though to be fair, a lot of people get to the final leg as well.  Tossing a sandbag onto a tall pole is no easy feat, so even Q takes a while.  In addition, the music does a good job faking us out that some people may get it in one shot.  Q does win, though, making no one but himself happy.  He is naturally then given the choice of three people, one at a time, to take on the reward with him.  His first choice is Tiffany, which makes sense.  She seemed open to the mending of bridges at the start of this episode, and a full stomach is going to work wonders on that front.  His second choice, Maria, I also can’t fault.  She’s the only one actively talking strategy with Q, so of course she should come along.  Can probably help mediate with Tiffany as well, in case of any lingering resentment.  

Then comes the third choice, and both Liz and the players are pushing hard for Q to take her.  Liz literally begs Q, while Probst reminds him that she’s been unable to eat most everything out here, and they failed at the rice negotiations, meaning she isn’t getting food that way either.  Q hears this, takes it to heart… Then passes over Liz and chooses Kenzie.  

Say what you will about this move, the optics of it are not good.  I get not picking her first or second.  Prioritize your strategic preferences.  Liz, being one of the people most on the anti-Q train, would not be good for him for talking strategy.  But seeing someone that desperate for food, in that difficult of a situation, and not taking them once your strategic priorities are set?  Yeah, it just ain’t a good look especially when Q’s jury equity is already pretty well in the toilet at this point.  

With the obvious out of the way, let’s talk about a few of the other points surrounding Q’s decision here, since while it is a bit of a dick move, I don’t think it’s baseless.  From a purely strategic standpoint, there’s no reason to take Liz.  Indeed, she’s at or near the bottom on that metric.  Q has basically no intention of working with her, and as I said, I don’t think she’d be receptive anyway.  Moreover, it’s not entirely fair to hold Q solely responsible for Liz not getting a reward.  Yes, he made the selections, but people on reward, even those taken, are allowed to give it up!  Tiffany, Maria, or Kenzie could all have said “I give this to Liz”, but none of them did.  Yet we never see anyone mad at them.  Shows how thoroughly Q is in the doghouse socially at this point.  

Even in defeat, however, Liz is not about to get overshadowed by Q again.  She blows up, and I mean BLOWS UP!  Screaming to the heavens, shouting out every grievance she’s had since the merge.  It’s enough that even those sympathetic to her look uncomfortable.  And for the viewer, it does straddle the line between “fascinating” and “uncomfortable”.  Raw emotion works well on screen, but for something like a reward, this seems like an overreaction.  In addition, one could argue that it’s bad for Liz’s game.  While she hasn’t been getting the credit she thinks she deserves, one positive benefit there is that Liz also hasn’t been getting a target on her.  By including “her move being overshadowed” in the outburst, she’s cluing people in that she may be playing harder than first thought, and that may put a target on her back.  

Still, I can’t really fault Liz here.  As she says, she’s in her emotions, and being on the brink of starvation does not help one’s emotional control.  Yes, it’s a bad move, but Liz in this moment is not really thinking strategically.  And to her credit, she does quickly calm down and express her frustration in a calmer manner.  This does not change her situation, however, and everyone heads off in either jubilation or despair.  

The worst part about all this?  Probst brings back the damn Sanctuary Slogan.  Dammit, show, you had one job and you blew it!

We’ve heard from Liz, but what do folks back at camp think?  Ben is not a fan, though it is surprising that he doesn’t say “That did not rock.”  Instead, he talks about how it meant so much to Liz because of the family connection, but here, I have to disagree.  You can think Q pulled a dick move for denying the starving woman (well, more starving than everyone else, at least) food, but you could argue that EVERYONE could have some family connection to that reward.  Maybe people have families who like burgers.  Maybe people have families big into mixed drinks.  Everyone’s got something, however tenuous.  Liz’s thing is special to her, sure, but it’s not unique, and not a good reason to make a bad strategic move.  

But we see that even the people on reward are not thrilled with Q’s decision. Well, at least Kenzie isn’t.  Tiffany and Maria are mostly just happy for the food, but Kenzie admits that she didn’t expect to be taken.  She presumes that Q wanted to mend fences, but she says that won’t work, comparing it to an ex taking you out to a nice dinner to try and get back together.  The gesture is nice, but it doesn’t undo the past.  Fair enough.  

Speaking of the past, Liz is still dwelling on it, and my sympathy is rapidly dwindling.  Yes, Liz has a right to be pissed over the whole situation, but she’s taking quite a while to simmer down.  Again, I don’t want to be TOO harsh, given how rough conditions are for her out there, but it does seem like she’s making this out to be a bigger deal that it ultimately is.  We even lead into a flashback regarding her and her daughter’s “Survivor Sleepovers”, which we do not need.  A description was enough.  

Well, Q has firmly planted his picks in the strategic realm; how’s that working out for him?  Not great!  Despite Maria’s hopes, Kenzie is still firmly on the “Get Q Out” train, presumably not mentioning the Tiffany plan because, well, she’s right there.  Despite how she seemed at the start of the episode, Tiffany says this doesn’t change much, and she’s all for getting out Q.  Maria admits to wanting to use him as a number, but isn’t sure about how it will work right now.  

Things don’t look much better for Q once they get back to camp the next day.  Charlie asks about the reward, which Tiffany in particular goes on and on about, even noting she couldn’t eat the burger (Liz’s stated favorite food there) because there was so much.  Liz tells them to “read the room” in confessional, but again, I’m not going to blame them too much for this one.  It’s not like they came up and started talking about it out of the blue; Charlie asked a legitimate question.    Even then, they didn’t particularly go on about it beyond the usual descriptions you’d expect.  MAYBE you could argue they shouldn’t have mentioned the burger bit, but that’s a stretch in my book.  More out of her emotions now, Liz apologizes to Q, which he seems to accept.  Liz admits, though, that this was a pure lie, and fair enough.  Liz has little reason to work with Q at this point, but no reason to put him on edge.  

For his part, while Q does demonstrate an understanding of why Liz was feeling the way she felt, he tells us in confessional that he has no remorse for his decision.  As he shouldn’t.  If he was looking at it purely from a strategic perspective (as he indicated doing), then his picks were very logical.  His logic didn’t work out, but it at least had a fair to good chance of doing so.  Can’t fault him for that.  I will, however, fault Q for saying he “Doesn’t care what she thinks.”  In your world, Q, Liz will be on the jury, so you’d BETTER care what she thinks!

Anyway, time for our immunity challenge, the “Hold your pre-game weight in a bucket on a string” challenge; the one that tests your grip.  It was first seen on “Survivor Philippines”, and contrary to Probst’s claims, I think that, and not Gabler’s run on “Survivor 43”, was the record.  Pretty sure the Philippines edition went over an hour.  

My being pedantic aside, Probst has more important matters to attend to.  Notably, it seems production has realized “Oh crap, Liz might actually die if we don’t get food in her soon.”  So yep, rice negotiations are back.  Understandably, the price is steeper this time, with four people sitting out.  Same base number as before, but now a greater percentage of those left.  Equally understandably, almost no one takes this offer.  This late in the game, it’s too great a risk, even with Liz’s health to consider.  Presumably freaking out about this, Probst offers those who do sit out their own individual rice supply, which does get Liz, and only Liz, to sit out.  Understandable move, though I’m not sure why it got applause from everyone else.  This wasn’t some brave gesture or grand sacrifice.  

In case it wasn’t clear how much everyone hates Q, Venus and Ben attempt to manifest it from the bench, Ben being out surprisingly early in this challenge.  As he said, his cradle got rocked, which I guess met his catchphrase quota for the episode.  Q lasts a decent while, but is eventually out.  The challenge comes down to Charlie, who’s dropped but had some impressive comebacks, and Tiffany, whom Charlie and Maria have said they still want to target, yet remains perfectly still, not even responding to banter.  The look on her face throughout reads “Don’t talk to me.”  

Despite this impressive performance, Tiffany drops out of nowhere, netting Charlie his second victory.  Back at camp, talk immediately turns to getting rid of Q, with Kenzie now backing down from the Tiffany plan.  She admits to flirting with it, but think now’s not the time.  Really, what tipped you off, genius?

Charlie and Maria, however, still very much want this to happen, and understandably so.  Tiffany may be a good ally for Kenzie, but not so much for those two, and her idol makes her all the more a threat.  Maria talks to Q, who again in a good display of diplomacy, agrees to go along with Maria’s plan, no questions asked.  Not that he has much choice, but still, he’s learning not to insist on his way 100% of the time.  

This, of course, begs the question of where the other votes for Tiffany can come from.  Ben is the natural first choice, and he takes little convincing.  He may not be a fan of Q, but he admits there’s bigger fish to fry, with Tiffany being one of said fish.  Still, that’s only 4 and a tie is not enough.  Kenzie and Tiffany are obviously out.  That leaves Venus, who just seems to generally dislike Q, and Liz, whose dislike of Q as of this episode is extremely personal.  

Naturally, Liz is the obvious choice.  IN OPPOSITE LAND!  Generally, yes, I’d say Liz is the ore persuadable vote than Venus.  But today, of all days?  To her credit, Liz does hear out Maria’s pitch, and it’s a good one.  Maria basically offers Liz that “Big Move” she wants, and the chance to show she’s not ruled by her emotions.  Good way to appeal to Liz.  Maria’s game is really coming into its own this episode.  

The flaw is that this really isn’t a “Move for Liz”.  This is a “Move for Maria” that Liz would facilitate.  I get why Liz would be tempted, but from her perspective, it’s better to stick with voting out Q.  Yes, she may be the swing vote, but it’s usually the person who GETS the vote to swing, not the swing vote themselves, that gets credit.  Look at the flip at the final 7 of “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Eliza was very clearly the swing vote, but no one calls that “Eliza’s Move”.  Liz will fall into the same trap here.  Ironically, despite not orchestrating it, I’d say she’d be more likely to get credit if Q goes home.  She’s been so vocal about it, her getting her way with him gone would seem like more of her move, even though it wouldn’t actually be.  Honestly, the biggest benefit in joining the vote to get rid of Tiffany would be a close tie between the idol going home, and avoiding a possible rock draw in the event of a tie.  The former is definitely a concern, which is why going with Maria’s plan isn’t a horrible move for Liz, but the latter seems easily avoided.  Either convince Ben to vote with his heart, or make the (fairly safe) bet that Mara and Charlie wouldn’t go to rocks for Q.  

While I’m happy to see Q trying to improve his social game, the flaw with this is that Tribal Council is much less exciting.  Everybody playing things too close to the chest for anything interesting to happen.  About the only noteworthy moment is Tiffany’s smile dropping when she realizes she’s getting more votes than just Q’s, which is a priceless expression.  

Yes, Tiffany goes home, and I am disappointed.  Granted, I’d have been disappointed had Q gone home as well, but I could at least see some upside to it, since it’s getting old to have him be targeted every single episode.  Tiffany was dynamic, and had the potential to shake up the strategy more so than Q at this point, so her going is definitely a loss.  To her credit, though, she goes out with an enormous amount of class, her final words mostly noting (accurately) where she went wrong, and how she should have played her idol.  Tiffany, you may be gone, but we salute you nonetheless!

Honestly, great episode!  Not perfect, but the emotions were raw and high, the misdirection was excellent, and it’s nice to see the season remaining on the crazy train.  The slow start is an issue, but if it keeps up this momentum to the end, it will all be worth it!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode Several: Wrapped Up With A Nice Little Bow

Inanimate objects, done properly, can become a character in and of themselves.  On “Survivor” immunity idols are the most common example of this, but sometimes people can create their own.  And we may just have one of those tonight.  That was a MAGNIFICENT Buff Bow on Kenzie’s head!  Even with all the emotion at her Tribal Council, I think it stole the show.  

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  While the tribe was unified against Moriah last episode, there was still the stray Venus vote to consider.  Consider it Venus does, and given how she is, she naturally jumps to the conclusion that it was cast by Soda.  Understandable, given how the pair have been interacting these past few days, but wrong.  Soda of course denies this, but this only convinces Venus further.  Everyone, Tevin in particular, is prepared to sit back and watch the fireworks.  

Charlie, then, is the rain that cancels the fireworks.  He comes clean to Venus that he was the stray vote against her.  I have to ask… WHY?  How does this benefit Charlie in any way?  Venus didn’t even suspect him, and this was tearing Nami, the biggest threat to Siga, apart.  Now she knows you moved against her, and Venus does not strike me as the type to forgive and forget.  Even in a best-case scenario, where she decides she has bigger fish to fry and doesn’t immediately try and get you out, say goodbye to that jury vote.  

So egregious is this error that Coach Q comes out again.  He sits Charlie down on the beach (with Tim also there), and just reads him the riot act about how he screwed up a good position.  Not saying Q is wrong, but unsolicited advice is not going to win hearts and minds.  Charlie defuses the situation by “apologizing”, which at least shuts Q up, but this has turned him against Q.  I don’t agree with his conclusion that “Q is running the show” based on this; at worst Q is being a bit too blunt.  It DOES show, however, that Q doesn’t respect your game, and that alone is a reason to work against him.  Point being, Q may be right about what is and isn’t a smart move, but he’s not winning friends with his style of interaction.  

After our intro, we get another scene at night, though this one a bit less confrontational.  Ben wakes up in the middle of a panic attack, and worried about how he’ll be perceived as a result.  Luckily Kenzie is used to this sort of thing, other members of her family having been through similar experiences, so she is able to assist him and comfort him.  She admits that this is something beyond the game, and she’s doing it out of general, human kindness.  Honestly, it’s a very effective scene.  A nice bit of calm before the strategizing storm, and one that didn’t need to be bolstered by turning it into a sob story.  Oddly, the understatement makes the moment more powerful, and frankly it’s just a highlight of the episode.  Well done, show.  

Because we have to stick with the stupid “Split Tribal” twist, we can’t have any more camp scenes for now.  Instead we have to cut straight to our Immunity Challenge, which is the “Stand on the Triangles” one first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  A challenge so boring and predictable I’m more fascinated by them using the buff design along the side of the platform in the water.  Nice touch.  

This is also where we get our first look at the Immunity Idol for this season, at least the individual one.  Solid design, in my opinion.  Reminiscent of the one from “Survivor Cambodia”, with red as a main color and a similar outline.  Being made of beads and adding geckos does help make it unique.  Maybe not an idol for the history books, but a solid entry regardless.  

I will say what this challenge lacks in interest in and of itself, it makes up for in banter.  After Probst notes that the calmer conditions compared to the last time this was run (“Survivor 42”), Q suggests playing the “Alphabet Game” with city names, without actually explaining what the Alphabet Game actually is.  A fact that comes back to bite him in the butt when basically everyone starts violating what Q perceives as the rules.  Hunter starts off with “A for Atlanta”, but then Ben gets knocked out due to not saying that again, despite saying both “Boston” and “Baltimore”.  Liz does get the C in there, but again fails to name the previous names, despite Q saying this must be done.  It’s capped off with Charlie saying he gets it, only to make the same mistake as Liz.  Pretty sure that last one, at least, was intentional.  Seems like too good an opportunity for Charlie to tweak Q’s nose in a joking manner for him not to take it.  

Q, incidentally, is the first one out of this challenge, followed shortly by Ben from his team, leaving Kenzie, Tiffany, Hunter, and Tim up on their side.  Soda falls at about the same time, but she’s on the opposite team, leaving Charlie, Maria, Tevin, Venus, and Liz up for them.  Despite being sidelined, Q still keeps up a good bit of commentary.  He explains to Probst how “Black folks ask what time it is.”, which Probst takes in stride.  When Q goes silent, he explains that he was taught to shut up if he’s not in the game.  Evidently unable to stand the silence, Tim pulls a Gabler (“Survivor 43”), and starts shouting out various people the audience doesn’t know during the challenge.  Q mocks him for this, only for Tim to remind him what his dad taught him about shutting up.  It’s honestly the one thing making this challenge fun, and it helps that it’s clearly just the cast having fun with one another, and no one taking the talk too seriously.  Probst even gets in on the fun a bit, reminding us of Jelinsky’s “Several=7” point from earlier in the season.

Eventually the challenge must get serious, though, and everyone transitions to standing on one foot.  Brenda Lowe and Andrea Boehlke can rest easy knowing their impromptu rule on the first run of this challenge remains an official part of it now.  This leads to several dropouts, but Kenzie, despite winning immunity, drops before either Tevin or Maria.  This means her team will miss out on a reward, and go to Tribal Council first, meaning whoever leaves misses the jury.  As for Tevin and Maria, they have a good battle, with Tevin even having a spectacular comeback from nearly falling over.  IN the end, though, Maria’s lower center of gravity wins the day, and she snags immunity.  

Our teams are sent to separate camps, with the winning six going to the current merge camp.  Here we find out the new tribe is dubbed “Nuinui”.  No real complaints here on that one.  The name is a decent length, and obviously Polynesian in origin (granted Fiji is in MELANESIA, but given they’re part of the same language family, I’ll take it at this point).  That said, all it really makes me want to do is get out my old Bionicle toys again.  

Despite winning, not everyone is happy.  Charlie notes that he’s in an exceptionally precarious spot, being one of only two original Siga on the tribe, and the other having immunity.  He realizes he’s exceptionally vulnerable, a status that Tevin confirms.  Tevin, however, is not content to just let things sit on the obvious target, telling us that he wants to invoke the “First Blindside of the Season”.  Jem might take issue with that characterization, Tevin.  

Over with our losers, Hunter is feeling nervous for similar reasons to Charlie.  He tells us he intents to play his idol tonight, a move I can’t really fault.  True, there is the “Journey 6” alliance he could trust in, but he is the only person without an initial-tribe ally in this group.  Further, he’s a noted physical threat at a rare moment without having immunity, making him a tempting target.  

Certainly Tim thinks so, since he tells Q that Hunter should obviously go.  Q, however, thinks it equally obvious that Ben should go.  After all, Nami is at each other’s throats, and Ben is the only one in this group not part of the “Journey 6”.  Ok, Kenzie technically isn’t either, but she’s immune, and Q is unlikely to go against an original Yanu at this juncture.  A member of the “Journey 6”, however?  He’ll turn on them in a heartbeat, now insisting it has to be Tim for his wishy-washy-ness.  A bit early to be turning on him, but also a bit early to be giving my thoughts on the targeting on these tribes.  

I will say, however, that I don’t buy for one minute that Q intentionally lost that challenge.  It was one that didn’t cover his skill set, and he lied to save face.  Understandable, but either Q’s a far better actor than I credit him, or he’s lying to the camera to save face.  

For now, let’s return to our winners, who have the more intriguing strategy.  Tevin is not the only one who wants to “Make a move”.  Soda is ready to get Venus out, and tries to enlist Charlie and Maria to that end, once everyone is done “napping” on the beach.  Understandable, given their tiff, but also a bad move for Soda.  She’s already kind of screwed since she’s not going to the end with Vcnus, and therefore if she IS in the end, Venus is guaranteed to be on the jury.  Guess who Venus will never vote for in a million years?  Even so, better to have her on the jury later than earlier, lest she poison the whole bunch against you.  

This, however, is not enough of a blindside for Tevin, who marshals Liz, along with a presumed Charlie and Maria, to get out Soda.  He considers her, fairly, to be a social threat.  Can’t deny the logic there.  Not content with this, however, Soda approaches Maria and Charlie individually to blindside Tevin.  Charlie seems on board, at least in part because he prefers ANY plan that doesn’t involve him getting voted out, but Maria is a bit more hesitant.  She wants to keep her options open with the “Journey 6”, and Tevin is a part of that.  Hence, conflict, even if getting out Tevin would be the thing to break Nami apart completely.  

Things get worse for Venus when, having already come on strong with Maria, she pushes her again.  Maria, pretty reasonably, gives Venus advice on how to come at people.  She sympathizes with Venus due to her age, but notes that people don’t like being told what to do.  This advice goes in one ear and out the other, Venus chalking it up to their age disparity.  Way to not work on yourself, Venus.  That said, she does at least tone it back to a vote against Soda, something Charlie and Maria are much more likely to go with.  They confer on the beach, Charlie noting that he’s weirdly safe.  Not sure how much of that is due to his effort as much as Nami being a hot mess, but still, good for him.  

As our targets for this group are now firmly set on either Soda or Venus, time to discuss what the best move is.  Clearly, between these two, it’s Soda.  She’s the more subtle player, and Venus’ presence will continue to make Nami at least seem more fractured (if not actually be more fractured), thus making them seem less threatening.  Further, Venus has so buried herself socially she’s unlikely to win many jury votes, and isn’t much of a challenge threat.  If she gets to the end, well, easier victory for you.  Might as well chop Soda off now.  Not to mention that Venus, if the first juror unanimously, will likely poison the jury against all of you.  Yeah, clearly go for Soda.  

In regards to our other group, there is dissension amongst the ranks.  Kenzie, admittedly, is happy with going for Tim, since her and Ben kind of vibe.  Tiffany less so.  That said, props to Ben for catching that Kenzie was not being 100% up front with him.  I thought Kenzie lied pretty effectively there, but he sussed it right out.  

Tim pitches Hunter to the group, who agree to split votes, but Q turns it on Tim as soon as he leaves.  Tiffany agrees with this, correctly noting that Nami is easy to break up, while Siga is less so.  However, Ben comes across as slightly sketchy when Q talks to him, leading to Q turning it back on Ben.  This makes Tiffany happy, but not Kenzie, especially since Q seems to waffle back and forth, and doesn’t let them get much of a word in edgewise.  

This leads to the promised pair discussing Q “running the show”, and predictably, the preview played this up.  Don’t misunderstand, there is a legit issue between them and Q, but it was built up to go somewhere tonight.  Had Charlie been in this group I might have bought it, but no.  Instead, they just note that Q is a bit inflexible, and also a bit prone to changing his mind.  All fair criticisms.  I might sum it up in that Q is a very binary player.  You’re either fully in agreement with him, or fully disagree with him.  Not much room for nuance in the world of Q.  On the one hand, if you’re truly his ally, this can be a great thing!  After all, as long as you don’t piss him off, you can guarantee he’ll stick with you.  That said, as we saw with Ben, staying on his good side is not so easy.  It’s not clear what exactly Ben did to turn Q against him from their conversation, but it flipped Q’s mind completely.  That can be a problem, so it’s understandable that they would consider moving against him.  But, as they note, it’s probably too early.  

With Hunter not much in contention, the debate is between Tim and Ben, and once again the answer of who should go is clear.  Ben is a social threat no one there apart from Tim has really connected with.  Tim is a much more predictable player, and keeping him around prevents the “Journey 6”, which Q at least is pushing hard, from fracturing.  Ben is the clear better choice here.  

We’re also left with little doubt that Ben will go, since he gets all the emotional content at Tribal.  He goes over his panic attack again, and everyone gives him sympathy, while also noting there are human moments outside the game.  Q, for his part, is also courteous, giving Kenzie major props for winning immunity.  The real star of the show, however, is Kenzie’s giant bow buff.  An hour after the episode aired, and I still love that thing.  

For as much as I hate the “Split Tribal” twist at this juncture, the show got a good draw here.  You can have the emotional climax first with this group, then the strategic one with the next.  Not intentional on their part, obviously, but a good way to balance it out, and not feel like we’re waiting for one group or the other to go.  Going to commercial in the middle before an obvious boot like this is a bit much, but hey, the other group has enough mystery to keep us happy regardless.  

Yet, once again, the show gets me.  Tim goes, which I absolutely DID NOT expect.  Good trick, editors.  The bad decision for basically everyone but Kenzie, but definitely an audience blindside.  That said, from a character standpoint, much the better decision.  Ben may not do it for me as a character, but he’s more interesting than Tim, who basically brought nothing.  Seems like a nice enough guy, but just not good tv, sadly.  I will, however, give Hunter some praise for not playing his idol.  Granted, he probably had a lot of trust in what Q was saying, so it’s not the weirdest decision ever, but still, he had valid reasons to believe he would be targeted.  Good on him for saving his idol.  

As mentioned, our second Tribal Council is the strategic climax of the episode.  Logically, this makes for less exciting banter at Tribal, with it being mostly the stuff you’d expect.  Charlie bringing up his Shot in the Dark.  Venus and Soda bringing up the tribe divisions.  We do get a couple of unusual moments, like Liz catching flak for not bringing her bag.  I do have to deduct points on Maria, however, for using a metaphor where one wasn’t asked for.  Don’t encourage Probst, Maria.  

Oddly, despite this being the more unpredictable vote, it’s also the more underwhelming one.  The group does the smart thing and votes Soda out.  She’s a bit teary about the whole thing, but thankfully she at least gets to sit on the jury.  I’m not the biggest fan of Venus, but I am glad she stayed, if only for the drama she brings.  If Ponderosa videos were still a thing, I’d want her on the jury as early as possible, but as is?  I’m fine with this.  

For the episode as a whole, it weirdly fails kind of in spite of itself.  The humor was on point, the editing top-notch.  We had good mystery, and a lot of good character bits.  Yet I confess myself, underwhelmed.  I don’t hate this episode, but it just kind of came and went with little fanfare for me.  I think it’s just a victim of how much had to be stuffed in.  With this many people, and two Tribal Councils, it just feels bloated.  The superiority of the previous factors helps make up for it, but there’s only so much you can do with this format.  Yet another reason to vary things up, show.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Finale: Bad at Math

There are many skills one needs to be able to win “Survivor”.  Social skills, obviously.  Strategic skills never go amiss.  Skill at finding small objects in the woods is becoming more and more of a valuable tool.  And even basic survival skills still matter, at least a bit.  But one underrated skill is being good at math.  And if you don’t believe that helps on “Survivor”, go back and watch the trials and tribulations of Brad Culpepper on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Man literally leaves because of math.  

After our requisite “ooh”-ing and “aah”-ing at the new camp, we get down to business.  Austin is, of course, rather stunned at Dee leaving him out of the vote, and it’s here we see that Austin’s math skills are a bit wanting.  He talks about having “two number ones”, something that is mathematically impossible in this context.  Still, the dude takes it all in stride.  Perhaps a little TOO in stride.  He acknowledges the “Dee lied to me” portion, but chooses to focus more on the “Dee is still here” portion.  Is he lovesick, or just that chill?  Either way, his chances in the game plummet with each frame.  All is well between the lovers, though, who share a long cuddle on the beach.  

Such a cuddle does not go unnoticed by the others, with Julie joking about sending out a party to let them know they won’t sleep until they come back.  Katurah is a bit sharper in her criticism, noting correctly that a duo is bad for her game, and needs one of them to go.  Probably Dee for being a big jury threat.  Hey, Katurah is finally channeling that anti-Bruce energy into a more strategical-sound place!  Only took all season!

Morning, of course, brings a scramble for a challenge advantage.  Honestly, this scavenger hunt is kind of lame, basically being a repeat of the “Waambulance” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Run out, find and count the things, use them to solve a combination lock, if you’re wrong you have to go back out for another look.  Take away the ropes course part, and this is a scaled-down copy.  Not the worst challenge, but hardly exciting.  

Everyone talks about the scramble for finding the things, and Dee and Austin collude with one another, but it’s Jake’s slow and steady approach that wins the day, and consequently gets the most focus.  It helps that the mnemonic device was on the editors could have fun with, since Jake associated the number with the winners of the respective season.  Hence, the combination was JT (“Survivor Tocantins”), Gabler (“Survivor 43”), Denise (“Survivor Philippines”), with appropriate clips being shown in the background for each.  As such, he wins the challenge advantage.  

Seems this episode has a thing for combination locks, because they come back in our immunity challenge as well!  They’re also Jake’s advantage, since the numbers are revealed by hurling sandbags into baskets, and Jake starts with two revealed (everyone has a different combination, so peeking off Jake won’t help).  It’s otherwise your standard obstacle course, with the only other point of note being the puzzle at the end.  It’s the Michele Fitzgerald puzzle, first seen on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  You know the one.  It always gets kicked down upon completion.  

This season upholds that tradition.  Austin narrowly wins over Jake, in part due to the latter missing a puzzle piece.  Probst, of course, rubs salt in this proverbial wound, though Austin makes up for it by taking Jake along for the “reward” portion of the challenge, a steak meal at The Sanctuary.  Frankly I’m surprised.  The move certainly makes strategic sense (keep your number one ally with two likely boots to make sure you get the scoop on all discussions), but so lovestruck is Austin, I fully expect him to pick Dee.  

Good for Jake getting some food in him, though.  Like I said at the end of last blog, the man is not completely out of it for winning, but really needs things to go right for him.  And that starts with him playing his idol correctly in order to idol out a threat, preferably Dee.  In order to do this, it’s best if no one (save possibly Katurah) knows about it… And then Jake starts spilling his guts about it to Austin.  Yeah, see why I don’t give this guy great odds?  Worse still is his stated intention to target Julie.  Not a bad one, but again, I think Dee might be the better bet, at least in terms of jury clout.  

Luckily for Jake, Katurah is there to talk him out of it.  She makes a good argument for targeting Dee, and Jake agrees to switch his vote.  After telling Katurah about his idol, the pair agree to draw votes onto Jake, then have their two be a majority with Jake’s negated votes.  

Unluckily for the pair, Austin immediately spills to Dee about Jake’s idol.  Again, great move, dude!  About the only bright spot is that Julie doesn’t believe that Jake’s idol is real, and so is going to stick voting him.  Dee plans to stick on Katurah, the backup plan, leaving Austin in the air.  With votes split this way, even if Austin votes with one of Dee or Julie, you can still get a majority with the idol played correctly.  As long as nothing else goes wrong for Jake.  

But no!  Even Jake’s professed allies cannot be counted upon!  Worried about Jake being flaky (which Jake has many faults in this game, but flakiness is not among them, from what we’ve seen), Katurah makes him swear on his grandmother to vote for Dee.  Because nothing bad has ever happened on “Survivor” when people swear on their grandmother.  

If I haven’t made it clear already, voting out Dee is the correct move for basically everybody.  Gets rid of a jury threat, and while Julie and Austin would lose a close ally, numbers are small enough now that it doesn’t really matter.  Do I think it will happen?  Not with a vote this fractured, but we’ll see.  

Tribal Council is sadly a boring affair pre-vote.  Standard double talk, and not even an honorable mention for fun moment.  That is, until we vote.  The vote is genuinely up in the air, plus there is Jake’s idol to consider.  Say what you will about Jake, but the dude is a showman through and through.  He makes a big deal about his idol play, busting out a Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) impression along the way.  Gotta say, it was a spot-on impression.  Confusingly, he plays it for Katurah.  At this point in the game, I’d have played it for myself, but I guess Jake’s reading the room that votes are going for Katurah?  

If so, he’s reading them badly.  Katurah does get one vote from Dee, eliciting a fun happy reaction from Jake.  Then Jake gets a vote, eliciting a pissed reaction from Jake.  The next two votes, going for Dee and Julie, just elicit confusion, with the final vote going for Julie.  I am sorry to see her go.  She was surprisingly strategic, and brought a certain charm to the proceedings as a whole.  You will be missed, Julie.  

Because having Emily be confrontational right out the gate wasn’t enough fights for the season, we have to squeeze one more in right before the Final Immunity Challenge.  Really, Jake and Katurah need to unite to hope to take out Dee or Austin.  Granted, that just amounts to “Win Final Immunity” at this point, but still, unity would be nice.  Instead, the two start throwing the blame around for why that vote didn’t go the way they wanted.  Jake is upset at swearing on his grandmother and Katurah backing out of it anyway, while Katurah is upset at Jake playing his idol incorrectly, leading to her not voting out the person she wanted gone anyway.  Frankly, both of them come off looking bad here.  Jake, you’re a superfan, you should know what swearing on a loved one means in this game (read, not much).  Yeah Katurah kind of burned you, but this reaction seems over-the-top, and disproportionate to the situation.  Don’t think you’re getting off though, Katurah.  Yes, Jake could have communicated more with you, but that’s a two-way street, so you’re not blameless.  Moreover, you’re in control of your own vote, and if you thought you were going regardless, why not throw a vote on Dee on the way out, just to say you tried.  It’s true you didn’t MAKE Jake do anything (applied a lot of pressure, certainly, but never forced), but by the same token, Jake did not make you do anything either.  Don’t throw your bad moves onto him.  He has enough of his own.  

Really, all this scene does is show the audience more clearly why an anti-Reba movement never really fostered at Belo.  Too much infighting and mistrust for them to work together.  

Our final immunity challenge, like the first immunity challenge, is nothing to write home about.  Stack seventeen bowls, which can be knocked over by wobbling a frame you step through.  Pretty standard challenge at this point, but at least it isn’t “Simmotion” again, so I’ll take it.  

The only major thing of note in this challenge relates, unsurprisingly, to Jake.  He and Dee are the two frontrunners in the challenge, with Austin and Katurah knocking their stack over often.  Jake, however, slips up, leading to the need to recollect his pots.  So many pots that it takes multiple trips.  Jake then gets the idea to walk atop the frame, rather than through it, for a faster time when jostling doesn’t matter.  

What DOES matter is structural integrity, since Probst warns Jake that if he breaks the challenge, he’s out.  Sure enough, a few moments later, the structure snaps, all but assuring Dee’s victory.  Jake’s salty in the moment, but that warning seemed pretty clear, and it looked like Jake had the chance to correct what he was doing.  Would have been best if this had been said before the challenge, but even so, this loss is squarely on Jake.  Probst doesn’t call this out as a “Survivor” first… and rightly so.  Yeah, this is the most blatant it’s been, but there’s been at least one time someone “broke” a challenge, leading to their disqualification.  The final 8 of “Survivor Africa” had an immunity challenge where you had to build a fire to burn a rope.  If you hit the rope with your supplies, you were disqualified.  Brandon did so, and got disqualified.  Good on Probst for remembering at least some of the show’s history, even if he didn’t talk about about.  

Dee wins, in case it wasn’t clear.  Wonder how the long toe helped in this one?  In any case, Dee and her toe must now decide who goes into fire.  There’s not much mystery, since she quickly settles on taking Austin to the end based on their relationship.  Annoyingly, the meta of fire-making being part of one’s “resume” comes up, with both Jake and Austin asking to go into fire.  Katurah’s the only one who resists, perhaps explaining why I like her in spite of some poor strategic moves on her part.  It’s to no avail, however, as Dee is worried about Katurah being a social threat on the jury, the one type of threat I would say Katurah is.  Thus, she wants her out, and believes Jake best-equipped to do it.  

But didn’t Jake almost faint into the fire early on this season?  Not sure he’s the best in fire.  Neither is Austin, who pitches to be put in as being better equipped to take out Katurah. This idea seems to have a bit of merit, as when Austin checks on Jake, the man has no fire, and seems checked out of continuing to try.  A decent-enough misdirect, but Dee’s too smart for that.  With how they’ve been able to get basically nothing going, this would not be enough to put either Katurah or Jake over the top for some jury votes.  Austin is more well-liked and had more agency, so it MIGHT be bad to have him do fire.  

Sure enough, that’s what happens.  Yeah, there’s discussion at Tribal Council, but once again, nothing of merit.  Katurah and Jake go into fire, and while not a blowout victory, Katurah’s repeated smothering of her fire means Jake eventually wins.  Once again, the methodical approach takes off.  Jake finally got his “W”, and he and Probst take a moment to bask in it.  Jake talks about how far he’s come since he was an underconfident 15-year-old.  We then go to Katurah, leading to this conversation:

PROBST: Katurah, what does this game mean to you?

KATURAH: Well Jeff, to me it means I never told anyone I was a lawyer.  

I’m kidding, but only slightly.  It DOES turn into Katurah using this as the lawyer reveal, we get our shocked reactions, and we move on.  

Continuing on the efficiency kick this episode has been doing, we cut between our final three breakfast and “jury speaks” videos.  Our contestants themselves don’t lay out the arguments, instead talking about their relationship with each juror.  Instead, the jurors make the arguments.  Jake overcame the greatest odds to be there, as the only non-Reba to make finals.  Dee was well-liked, and able to maneuver behind the scenes, and Austin was generally the most overtly social of the three.  Which will win out will likely come down to their arguments.  That said, Jake still seems on the outs.  I have to make note that he said “I took myself here.”  Sure, Jake.  Sure you did.

Weirdly, we don’t get opening statements this time.  Perhaps they were filmed but not shown?  Doesn’t really matter this time, as we get some good arguments from all parties this time around, and I’d dare to say the “New Jury Format” is the best it’s ever been!  Sure, it’s still more of a group discussion, and no one’s called up to speak, but every juror asks basically one question, and Probst doesn’t really contribute to the proceedings.  It’s the original jury format without all the showmanship, and a bit less equal speaking time (Emily speaks a bit more than once, and Bruce says basically nothing).  If this is the compromise needed, I’ll gladly take it!

Unfortunately, for all I like this new, balanced format, none of the questions really stand out.  Like I say, it all comes down to the arguments.  Jake gets built up by the jury initially, and really pushes the narrative of him lasting this long.  It’s his best card, and he does a good job arguing it.  

Sadly for him, it’s clear the jury largely see Dee and Austin as the power-players of the season.  Weirdly, the two remain cordial for a good chunk of the Tribal.  Dee gives Austin co-credit on most moves, and Austin argues for Dee better than Dee herself, being the first one to bring up her not bringing him in on the Drew vote.  Austin’s advantages get praised, but so do Dee’s social skills.  When they DO start going after each other, however, it’s tit for tat.  Austin puts a feather in his cap about strengthening the Reba alliance with Emily, Dee brings up bringing in Katurah.  Dee talks about orchestrating Kendra’s ouster, Austin brings up orchestrating Kellie’s ouster.  Back and forth the two go, though Dee does seem to claim a slight edge by noting that Austin told her about the Julie plan the night Emily went home, while she did not do the same for Austin on the Drew boot.  Seems like a close debate between the two, but given this better line of argument coming out at the end, I’d give the edge to Dee.  

The votes reflect this.  Kaleb gives Jake some false hope by calling out “J!” In the voting booth, a la Jonathan Penner’s “DENISE!” On “Survivor Philippines”, but ends up being a Dee vote.  A decently fun call back for the audience, but I’ve gotta imagine a bit hurtful to Jake in the moment.  Credit to this season: It’s not a 7-1 slam-dunk this time.  Indeed, it almost looks like a tie, but it ends up being 5-3 in favor of Dee.  Probably the right call.  Both had their strategic gems, but with how lovesick Austin became toward the end, Dee was clearly the superior choice.  The votes for Austin come from Drew (presumably for being his close ally), Kendra (for being more social/simpatico with Austin), and Bruce (there is no fathoming how Bruce’s mind works, particularly when we don’t hear from him on the jury basically at all).  A solid outcome on what ends up being a great season.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  We still have a couple of things to cover before my summation.  

Our reunion show, despite my preference for the old format, is decently solid.  We hit on most of the topics one would hope to hear about.  Dee and Austin’s relationship.  Emily’s growth.  Kaleb’s shot in the dark play.  All that sort of thing.  One interesting bit is Probst bringing up the fact that Austin was an alternate this season, getting called in last-minute.  A bit of trivia common-knowledge amongst the superfans, but probably not as well-known to the casual audience.  Moreover, Probst talks about some other contestants who were also alternates, bringing up Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) and Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  He notes that there seems to be something successful about being an alternate.  He of course fails to mention that Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”) and Spencer Duhm (“Survivor Tocantins”) were ALSO alternates, and had much less success, but I suppose that doesn’t fit his narrative, and Probst wants to forget that Guatemala exists.  Still, fun trivia for the uninformed.  

Also, next season looks ok.  Seeing the audition video clips is fun, but otherwise nothing to write home about.  I’m not concerned about “Survivor 46”, but I’m not jumping out of my seat to get to it either.  

Really, there’s only two major omissions in terms of what we discuss.  One would be asking about why Little Lulu was such a disaster of a tribe, presumably omitted for the lack of Lulu left, apart from Emily and Kaleb, and another knock against the new reunion format.  The other, which I’m surprised they didn’t talk about, or at least didn’t show, was how Jake would have voted if it HAD been a tie.  He himself seemed a bit unsure, but if I were to speculate, I’d say he’d go Austin.  He seemed closer to working with him than he did with Dee at times.  Still, who knows?

We end off this episode, much like it began, with a whimper.  I’ll save my season thoughts overall for after we check back on my pre-season cast assessment.  As for this episode, it was just ok.  I was never bored or angry at it, but I was never particularly thrilled either.  It came in, did its job adequately and efficiently, and then left.  Not bad for your standard episode, but kind of ho-hum for your big finale.  As such, let us more to the more exciting cast assessment comparison!

Austin: Wrong initially, though I became more right as the season progressed.  He WAS good at using his appearance and demeanor to hide how devious he could be, until his lovesickness got the better of him, and he became the mask, as it were.  

Brandon: My wish came true, even if my prediction didn’t.  In my defense, I didn’t think Brandon would be THAT bad at challenges, and had I known, I’d have given him much worse odds.  Still, unequivocally wrong here.  

Emily: Wrong, and thankfully so.  Her personal growth was a highlight of the season.  

Brando: The closest yet to being right.  His tribe was not the disaster I predicted (though once they started going to Tribal, they kind of ended up that way anyway), but he placed about exactly where I thought he would.  

Hannah: Mostly right, though I didn’t call the quit.  Though really, who could?

Bruce: I nailed his personality, and the reasons he would have an issue with the other players, but partly due to avoiding Tribal Council so long, he lasted much longer than I expected.  

J. Maya: She left for basically the reasons I expected, but earlier than I anticipated.  Partially right on this one.  

Drew: Sort of the opposite sibling to J. Maya.  I again nailed the personality, but Drew lasted longer than I anticipated in spite of that.  

Julie: Flat out wrong.  She had much more game, and was much more tempered in her confessionals, than I had anticipated.  

Jake: Well, I did call him a dark horse to win, and he DID make it to the end.  He had no shot at said end, but even so, I’ll give myself this one.  

Katurah: Wrong, though it would be hard to anticipate the single-minded anti-Bruce focus that arguably tanked her game.  

Kaleb: Dead right, for once this season.  

Kellie: Completely wrong.  Much more of a presence than I expected, and much longer-lasting.  

Sifu: He couldn’t adjust his personality to the others, and was out earlier than I thought as a result.  Another wrong assessment for me.  

Kendra: Yet another for the “right on personality, wrong on time in the game” pile.  

Sean: He may not be the WORST winner pick of “Idol Speculation”, but he’s definitely a top contender.  Again, if I’d known he’d be THAT bad in challenges, I’d probably have changed my rankings.  And again, hard to anticipate a quit.  

Sabiyah: Another of my few right calls this time around.  

Dee: Wrong.  Girl had the skills to back up her talk that I simply did not call.  

And there you have it.  Ranking this season on the heels of “Survivor 44” is a bit interesting, since I would say they have the same flaw.  Namely, one power alliance goes through to nearly the end basically unopposed.  Yet, I found it frustrating then, but don’t mind it here.  A lot of that, I think, boils down to the 90-minute format.  This allowed time for building more decoy winners, and giving us a larger sense of who the cast was and why they did what they did, than 44 could have allowed.  Yes, the last few episodes were a bit of a slog, and knowing the outcome does drag the season down, but everything up through the final seven boot was overall so great that I’d still call this a top-tier season!  That said, it’s the lower end of top-tier due to the Reba 4 never being stopped.  They had more plausible opportunity to be stopped, and their gameplay more subtle, which I think makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow than on 44.  

If you’re curious as to where exactly I’d rank this, I’d put it around the same level as “Survivor 42”, the other “New Era” season I’d consider top-tier.  Frankly I could see arguments for putting one over the other for both sides, and I think it comes down to whether you prefer a season with more developed players all around, but a more predictable outcome, or a more mysterious outcome at the cost of some characters being forgettable.  As someone who puts a lot of emphasis on rewatch value, I’d favor the latter, giving “Survivor 42” the edge, but I would not argue with anyone who prefers the reverse.  

In any case, feel free to let me know what you thought of this season below, as we await “Survivor 46”.  I’ll be taking my break for now, but look for me when the new cast is announced, and the discussion resumes!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 1: Monty Python and the Holy Idol

You know, it really is a shame they didn’t cast Brandon on “Survivor 44”.  Thanks to him I can make Monty Python references, but they would have been so much more appropriate last season.  All the “It’s just a flesh wound!” jokes I could have made…

My readers, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you to the return of “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  We’ve got a new season to cover with routinely longer episodes, so let us not waste any more time and dive right in.  

As is the norm nowadays, we open with everyone on a boat talking about the game a bit.  Mostly bog-standard stuff at this point, but we do get a couple of fun sound bytes from some players.  The most notable for me and Emily and Sifu.  The former is technically one we’ve heard before, the “I’m here for the money and nothing else.” confessional, but this is something of a rarity in the modern era, where it’s all about the “experience”.  I’m not as down on the whole “inspirational stories” thing as some other fans, but even I’ll admit this makes for a refreshing change.  Sifu’s confessional is notable less for its content and more for the energy he brings.  Dude is all smiles and air guitar, and that charm is just infectious as far as I’m concerned.  I could see him being divisive given what we’ll see later, but for now, I’m on the “Love it” side for him.  

Everyone hauls themselves up on the boat.  Normally Probst would address the elephant on the boat, namely Bruce returning from “Survivor 44”.  Brandon, however, makes such a show of emotion that it overshadows even Probst’s happiness at Bruce’s return.  Brandon gives the “relatable fan” confessional about how he’s feeling just being here, and Probst is satisfied.  

But even blatant fanboying cannot keep Probst away from Bruce for long.  Bruce talks about how he’s just happy to be here.  Really emphasizing how he’s a normal player, just like everybody else.  Probably what he needs to do to avoid the stigma of a returning player, and too his credit, he does it pretty subtly.  Not invisibly, however, as Emily calls him out on doing this exact thing, pointing out that while he may not know the game overall better than everyone else here (I mean, he was only in it for 12 hours, most of that concussed), he does have a psychological edge from having been through at least this part of the game before.  Bruce deflects again pretty well, saying that everyone has skills they specifically bring to the game, but again, Emily calls him out on doing just this.  

I’m of two minds on this.  On the one hand, I can’t argue Emily isn’t speaking the truth.  Not a dig against Bruce here; the man really did pull it off as well as he could.  It’s just that someone caught on despite this, and it’s perfectly good to call it out, lest we end up with another “Survivor Redemption Island” situation where the returnee just does what they want and everyone else agrees.  On the other hand, a public forum where you’re making your first impression is MAYBE not the smartest place to put all this out?  You show your intelligence far too early, and since you’re calling out the guy everyone remembers as “the concussed one”, you seem like you’re “punching down” to use comedy terms.  Really, the only firm conclusion I can draw from this is that I’m glad I picked Emily as my favorite.  Is she a great “Survivor” player?  No, not based on this and stuff we’ll see later, but I love it when someone uses their intelligence to call out others.  

Probst goes on to name our tribes (I guess red team doesn’t get a mat confessional this season?), and we need to talk about these.  Not just because I accidentally misnamed one of them in my case assessment (if you would just RELEASE that information with the cast, CBS, we wouldn’t have this issue), but also because of what they are.  While all these names, like most of the non-merge tribe names in the new era, are pretty pathetic (I feel like a tribe name needs five letters minimum to work well), one of them lends itself to far too obvious a joke.  Like Baka on “Survivor 43” before them, it’s all anyone can see, and the humor cannot be ignored.  

We have a tribe that feels like it’s named after the comic “Little Lulu”.  Thus shall they henceforth be called.  This is the only source of humor from tribe names this season.  There are absolutely, 100% no obvious jokes relating to names that I’m ignoring.  

Keeping the parallel to Baka, Little Lulu is the yellow tribe.  Our red tribe is Reba and our blue tribe is Belo.  So named, Probst describes their challenge.  Sadly not a raid of the ship (never thought I’d see the day when I missed that), it’s basically a 3-stage obstacle course.  First stage has two people hauling stuff from one box to another, the second has two more people swim out to a raft with a key, which they paddle back, then climb onto the boat again.  Remaining two then use the key to unlock poles to maneuver flint off a spring, the first team to do so getting supplies, and not having to do “Sweat or Savvy”.  Again, like the confessionals on the boat, pretty bog-standard.  

In fairness, while the challenge itself is not that exciting, there is good back and forth to help MAKE it seem exciting.  Reba takes the initial lead, with Little Lulu not far behind and Belo trailing.  Belo for some reason decided to put Bruce on the portion involving lifting heavy objects over one’s head, which seems a great risk, but perhaps that’s why they’re a bit slow at it.  Little Lulu actually turns out to be the best group of swimmers and paddlers, only for it to turn out that Brandon, one of said paddlers, is the worst ladder climber.  Belo is actually the first to move onto the third portion, and Reba takes back second due to this performance.  In fairness to Brandon, I will say that said ladder did look difficult to climb up, and Brandon proves to be overall a lot less athletic than he looks.  That said, panicking and giving up?  That’s entirely on him.  

Little Lulu is not out of it yet, as Hannah and Emily seem overall the most competent at maneuvering the flint, by which I mean they’re the only ones we don’t see whacking at it like a piñata.  To be fair, though, Reba also eventually uses the more chopsticks-like method, and that plus their being ahead of Little Lulu otherwise makes them the winners.  

Since we need to vary up the “Sweat or Savvy” lest it be COMPLETE repetition, our losing teams now have to have people volunteer BEFORE they know the exact nature of the competition, and go off to a separate beach to do it instead of the tribe camp.  Brando (in what I THINK counts as an opening mat confessional) and Jake end up going for Belo, while Sabiyah and Kaleb go for Little Lulu.  Everyone else heads off to their camps, save for Brandon who stays behind to get checked out by medical.  Given how exhausted he looks, I can understand it, but I have to ask, why send the rest of his tribe away?  Let them hang around, so they don’t have to wait to find out his fate.  Plus, that way you can get a “Survivor” Moment™ out of their reaction.  I guess there’s the “Other tribes would have more shelter-building time” argument, but as we’ll soon see, without materials there’s not much they could do anyway.  Let them stay until he’s evacuated or cleared.  

We check in with our winners first.  Riding the high of their victory, J. Maya calls her tribe “stacked”, saying they have the “Brains, Brawn, and Morale” over the other tribes.  I’d point out that challenge was decently close, all things considered, but hey, hard to argue with results.  The tribe also notices some weird writing above and below the name on the tribe flag, but we’ll save that for later.  In the meantime, everyone does the standard “name, occupation” style introduction.  Only thing of note here is Julie lying about her occupation, not wanting to reveal her status as an attorney (a common theme this season).  Reasonable enough to do, but she does so with one of the worst poker faces I’ve ever seen.  No one calls her out on it, but to me, that was obviously a fib.  

Cementing the “Maybe a public call-out of Bruce wasn’t the best idea” line of thinking, Emily is all that Belo can talk about initially.  Bruce calls her out for calling him out, and it looks like most of his tribemates present are on his side, and now have a dislike of Emily.  Way to make a good first impression, Emily.  Though to be fair, with how great Bruce’s facial expressions are in this scene, it’d be hard not to side with him in any case.  

Talk then turns to setting up camp, and Bruce reassures everyone that he is not there to be the leader.  If you remember Russell Swan’s performance on “Survivor Philippines”, you can imagine how this goes.  Look, I’ll cut Bruce some slack.  Saying he knows how to weave palm fronds when volunteers are asked for is not really being a “leader”.  But as his tribe will rightly point out, he still has big opinions on how everything should go, and kind of steps into the role in spite of himself.  Only time will tell how much a detriment that is long-term.  

Little Lulu, having only three people while Brandon gets looked at, is kind of at a loss.  The three who remain, Sean, Emily, and Hannah, kind of vaguely agree to work together (with Emily explicitly expressing concern that Kaleb and Sabiyah were quick to volunteer to leave for the challenge) and try to get something going shelter-wise, but are stymied by the lack of tools.  There’s also concern about whether they’ll EVER get them, based on the “Savvy or Sweat”.  This, then, gives us a segue into looking at said challenge.  It’s largely standard.  The “Sweat” is hauling a bunch of logs across the beach, while “Savvy” is untangling a rope from around a much of towers, freeing a flint to win.  There’s two catches that previous iterations of this do not have.  First is that despite the name, it’s not an “or” but an “and”, as in both portions of the challenge need to be completed before the timer runs out, not just one.  Makes who to pick a bit trickier overall.  The other is that, rather than just being a race against time, it’s a race against EACH OTHER.  Yes, evidently the producers are tired of everyone winning this challenge no problem, so now they’re going to force at least one tribe to lose no matter what.  And on that “Dun-Dun-DUN!” moment, we cut to commercial.  Editing gold.  

We check in briefly with Little Lulu here again, mostly to see that Brandon’s look from medical was so inconsequential, it didn’t even warrant us seeing it.  Brandon comes back to camp to inform us that he’s not dead, and that he feels fine and feeeeeeeeeels happyyyyyyyyyy!  With the obligatory reference out of the way, they try once again to get some sort of shelter going minus tools, leading to Brandon and Hannah bonding over how anxious they’re getting.  Brandon for the obvious “I screwed up a challenge” reason, while Hannah has a more general “The elements are tough” moment, though she admits nicotine withdrawal is a factor.  The pair have a good human bonding moment, before hauling back a large stick of bamboo.  Not much, but it’s something.  

Emily, continuing to make arguably the worst first-impression possible, expresses skepticism about how the “Savvy or Sweat” will go.  This gives us all the reason we need to cut back to it.  With the rules set, both tribes give it their go.  Sabiyah starts off as our narrator, talking about how tough the challenge was.  She notes that she even started talking to herself.  She presents this as a weird coping mechanism, but from what little I know of physically-exhausting activities, it seems pretty normal.  In this case, it’s pretty effective too, as she and Kaleb get a slight lead on the puzzle portion.  Jake tells us not to worry, that he and Brando have the smarts to beat them on the puzzle.  This is immediately followed up by Brando admitting he has no idea how to do this kind of puzzle.  Again, the comedy is pretty good this episode, if nothing else.  

We cut away without finding out if there was a winner, as well as the realization that Belo is having just as much trouble sans tools as Little Lulu is.  They express hope that Jake and Brando return victorious, which naturally means we immediately get them coming back in defeat.  They say that both teams lost, which at first I think is them lying.  After all, why not show us the end of the challenge, if not to set up a fake out?  But no, Sabiyah and Kaleb come back empty-handed as well, though as we’ll see, in overall a slightly better position than their counterparts on Belo.  Sean informs Sabiyah of Emily’s comments, which I’m sure will in NO WAY impact later conversations!

Back at Belo, we get the first hint of alliances forming there, as the women all discover they have September birthdays.  Between that and the sad recent trend of women leaving pre-merge, they agree to stick together, which I can’t fault them for.  I will fault them for bringing it back to zodiac signs, since people talking about that is one of MY pet peeves (hence why I haven’t really been mentioning Kendra, the main person bringing them up.  It’s all spite here.), but hey, I’ve heard of worse reasons to make an alliance.  Power to them.  

They discuss targets, with it landing on Jake for being an attorney, and therefore smart/untrustworthy.  The irony, of course, is that Katurah, also an attorney, is part of this conversation.  She, however, is wise enough to keep her mouth shut, saying she’s an office manager instead.  As she has a better poker face than Julie, I won’t fault anyone for not catching on to this.  In a funny scene, Katurah even doubles-down by playing dumb with Jake and asking him basic questions regarding his profession.  Point Katurah.  Not much else to say here.  

Over at Little Lulu, Emily continues to anti-ingratiate herself.  Despite the lack of tools, they’ve manage to use their ingenuity to get a halfway decent shelter going.  Ok, “halfway decent” is maybe too much credit, but we’ve seen worse shelters on this show.  This is not Rupert’s Deathtrap from “Survivor All-Stars”, nor the Younger Men’s “Two Sticks and a Palm Frond” from “Survivor Exile Island”.  And these guys at least have the “No tools” excuse.  Point Little Lulu, if we’re pitting these shelters against each other.  

So how does Emily factor into this.  Well as Sabiyah lets us know, and we hear from Emily’s own mouth in a second, she’s kind of negative about the whole thing.  While the rest of the tribe tries to figure out ways to make something work, Emily is the one pointing out that it CAN’T work, for various reasons.  The legitimacy of these reasons varies, but whether they’re legitimate or not is irrelevant.  The smartest point made in an obnoxious way does not win friends and influence people, which is, you know, kind of the point of the game.  It’s less important to be right and more important to be inoffensive in how you make your point, and right now, Emily seems pretty incapable of doing that.  Which, to be fair, she did promise us would be the case before the game started, but that doesn’t make it any less a bad move.  

The counterpoint, however, is that it seems like living with these particular people might already be straining Emily’s limited patience.  She might not be playing the game well, but the look on her face when everyone else on her tribe immediately jumps to “aliens” as the builders of the pyramids says it all.  And I’m right there with her.  I would have an EXCEEDINGLY hard time not calling them out on this.  While strained, Emily is polite enough to their faces, but I can sympathize with what she’s having to deal with.  Still, it’s not good for her game that she’s having this much trouble this early.  

Reba is doing too well for them to be in any real contention of losing the immunity challenge, and thus we don’t get to see any sort of alliance form.  We do, however, get a crack in the form of Sifu.  That infectious energy sadly is not limited to confessional, and when you openly compare yourself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Sifu is openly and blatantly looking for idols, a fact people comment on and that ostracizes him from the tribe a fair amount.  It’s overall a boon to Austin, however, who can go and more subtly look for an idol or advantage without arousing much suspicion.  He does eventually find something, but takes it without reading.  He’s a bit put-out that it’s another Beware Advantage, but after a bit of deliberation, decides it’s worth the risk.  Probably the right call for him.  His tribe seems unlikely to lose in the immediate future, so he probably has some time.  Even if they do, Sifu can be made an easy target.  Good play by him here.  

The Beware Advantage this time around is largely as it has been.  There’s an idol you can get, but must complete some task before doing so, no voting until it’s complete.  The major difference here is that it’s now a SERIES of tasks, not just one.  First is that Austin must use a piece of parchment with half-letters on it, combined with the random symbols on the tribe flag, to figure out his next clue.  Told you they’d be relevant.  I admit, I’m torn on how I feel about this method for the Beware Advantage.  I think on the whole I come down on the side of liking it ok.  The fact that it’s less public than past Beware Advantage tasks alone is a plus in my book, and this very much feels like a treasure hunt.  As I mentioned with Tai’s hunt back in “Survivor Game Changers”, it feels very much like something out of “Indiana Jones”, and I’m all in favor of that.  Really, my only gripe is that this method is, by its nature more time-consuming, and I fear that moving forward, episodes will be bloated with more complicated advantages instead of giving us more time to get to know these new players.  

Off to our challenge.  Gee, I wonder if Reba will lose?  After all, apart from Austin finding the Beware Advantage, we’ve had all of about zero content from them!  No, this is clearly going to be a two-way race for last between Bero and Little Lulu, with the latter being favored to lose due to having had more content overall.  Instead, let’s look at our immunity idol.  This season it’s the bust of a notorious “Survivor” Villain: Pelican Pete, Osten’s arch-nemesis on “Survivor Pearl Islands”.  First finishers get the bust itself, second place gets the base.  Not the best idol, not the worst.  Fits with the logo of the season, decently cool-looking.  Do wish the second half was something other than the base, but at least it’s not two separate idols.  

Our challenge itself largely comes courtesy of the first immunity challenge of “Survivor South Pacific”.  Tribes race through some obstacles, then toss coconuts into a net to get it heavy enough to drop. This iteration, of course, adds a climbing wall and a puzzle at the end.  Because in the modern era, you can’t have a tribal challenge without a puzzle at the end.  First two tribes to finish win immunity, losers have Tribal Council and lose their flint.  Because you know, that’s still a thing.  Pretty small-scale for a first immunity challenge, but I do have a fondness for “Survivor South Pacific” since it was the first season I blogged.  I feel like that buoys this one up into an “ok” in my book.  

There might have been some mystery before the challenge as to who would lose, but hoo boy, do they not even bother trying to hide it once the challenge gets started.  Little Lulu is behind pretty much the entire time.  There was a slow start from basically everyone except Kaleb on the mud-crawl portion, but it’s the climbing wall where they really struggle.  Multiple falls from multiple people.  I’ll give them credit for ingenuity in using their buffs to create hand-holds for those running up, but that alone is not enough.  They do eventually scale the wall, but as Probst says, it’s largely a moral victory by then.  For once the puzzle was irrelevant, and Belo and Reba win immunity, in that order.  

Being one of the people who fell off the wall multiple times means Brandon has now arguably cost his tribe two challenges (jury’s still out on how much his individual performance affected the outcome in the immunity challenge vs. Little Lulu just generally not doing well in that challenge), and he thinks himself very much in danger.  Feeling emotional about the whole thing, he goes full Gabler (“Survivor 43”) and threatens to use his Shot in the Dark round one.  Between this, the mat confessional, and being on the yellow tribe on an odd-numbered season, Brandon is guaranteed to win now.  

Spoiled ending aside (just joking, all you nitpickers), Brandon is not the only one feeling down.  Hannah admits that the elements are getting to her, and her heart just isn’t in it anymore.  She talks about just leaving, but Brandon talks her out of it.  He exaggerates, to be sure, telling her she “has” to keep going when no, objectively she does not.  She can choose not to.  It seems to work, though, and the pair discuss how to stay alive.  Unsurprisingly, their decision is to target Emily for being the outlier of the tribe, and while she hasn’t outright cost the tribe a challenge yet, she’s not a physical strength.  She struggled in the mud crawl, and everything we’ve seen makes it clear that Kaleb and Sabiyah are physically carrying the tribe.  

Naturally, this means to save herself, Emily starts targeting the pair, citing their bond.  Now, if I’m going to be completely fair, I can see some logic in this.  On tribes this size, a tight pair needs to be nipped in the bud, and while there’s been nothing explicit, Kaleb and Sabiyah have been together in a lot of stuff.  While definitely not the best in terms of keeping the tribe strong for challenges, especially since Emily explicitly prefers to target Kaleb, who is the only one without a weak performance in a challenge yet (even Sabiyah struggled on the mud crawl), there is a logic to it, especially if you think your tribe won’t win challenges regardless.  It’s a go big or go home strategy.  If it works, you’re set up really well in the long-term.  If it doesn’t, you’re likely out super early.  Fitting with Emily’s earlier confessional about preferring to be out first if she doesn’t win.  That said, it can’t be denied that this is probably not the optimal strategy for Emily in this moment.  Based on what we’ve seen, she’s the outside; lucky to not be receiving a major target (Kaleb wanting Brandon out for his challenge performance), so best to just keep her head down and throw Brandon and/or Hannah under the bus.  

I would also be remiss if I didn’t point out what may be a worrying trend with Emily.  While she has called her tribe in general “idiots” most of her targeted ire this episode has been towards Bruce, Kaleb, and Sabiyah.  While each of these individually has their own justification (how much you buy each justification may vary), one can’t help but notice that all three are African-American, and thus, one can’t help but wonder if there’s a bias, unconscious or otherwise.  This may very well not be the case, but notably, when Emily DOES turn her ire on Hannah later on, her tone is noticeably kinder.  Again, I want to make no assumptions about Emily, and it is also worth noting that the context in which that ire came out was different.  My hope is that Emily is more equanimous in her ire moving forward, and I still enjoy her calling stuff out, but yeah, if this pattern continues, it certainly tints my enjoyment of her character.  

Shock of all shocks, word of this gets back to Kaleb!  Brandon spills the beans in an attempt to save himself.  Despite this obvious reason to mistrust Emily, Kaleb still would prefer to vote out Brandon for “Tribe Strength” as we head off to Tribal Council.  If that’s really his only criterion, it makes sense, but on the whole, I think Emily would be the smarter decision.  She may not have directly cost the tribe a challenge thus far, but she’s not seen to be contributing much at this point either.  If she’s someone you can’t trust, and just generally grating on the tribe, no reason to get rid of her.  

Man alive this Tribal Council set is boring.  Seriously, I just finished watching the episode and I barely remember it!  Completely nondescript.  Hey, maybe if we moved out of Fiji every once in a while, we wouldn’t have this problem!

Initially, the events of Tribal Council are barely more memorable than Tribal Council itself.  Mostly just everyone talking about Tribe dynamics.  Not even an annoying metaphor to make fun of.  Thankfully, Emily is there to stir up more drama, first doing the smart thing of pointing out Brandon’s weakness in challenges, before being explicit about the threat the pair of Kaleb and Sabiyah are.  Hardly one to take things lying down, Sabiyah employs the Sean Rector defense of “Survivor Marquesas”, pointing out that people are assuming there’s something there when there’s no formal agreement.  Emily sticks to her guns, and a good bit of chaos starts to erupt…

And then Hannah derails the whole thing, telling us that this Tribal Council will be a non-starter.  Despite Brandon’s pep talk with her earlier, she’s stating she just can’t take it, and her heart isn’t in it.  Hoping for a good sound-byte, Probst asks Emily if this changes her mind, and she says it does.  This is where the Hannah ire I mentioned earlier comes in, as she does say that Hannah doesn’t deserve to be there.  Still, the tone is a lot less condescending than it has been, though again, that could just be her reacting to the somber mood of the situation.  Everyone follows suit in saying they would honor Hannah’s wishes, and so Probst forgoes the vote, and Hannah is gone.  

I must admit, this ending of the episode is a bit of a mixed-bag.  Ultimately a quit rather than a proper vote is kind of a wet fart of an ending, and not at all befitting the start to a season.  Really, this ends up feeling more like the first half of a two-part episode, where we’re introduced to the characters, but don’t really get the dramatic climax we’d expect.  That said, in terms of character, it IS nice that the person leaving was probably the least-interesting of those up on the dock.  Certainly another episode of Emily grating on everyone will make for some fun tv that we haven’t seen in a while from this show.  Really, my only complaint about Hannah’s exit is that it’s ANOTHER therapist doing poorly in the game, and this one from my hometown!  There really isn’t going to be another Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) is there?

How one ranks this episode would depend on what one’s looking for in said episode.  Most elements, from the challenge to the misdirection to the strategizing, were just ok.  Where this one really excels is in the character department.  This cast hits you full in the face with personality, and we get legitimate conflict for the first time in a while.  On the whole, while maybe not the strongest as a standalone episode, it does promise good things to come, and I hope it delivers on that promise.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Finale: Host with the Too Much

Look, I’ve been pretty clear on my stance on Probst in the past.  I think he is terrible as executive producer, and have criticized his decisions relentlessly.  But when it comes to the argument that he’s become a bad host, whether because he talks too much during challenges, or forces metaphors, or because he plays up the schmaltzy moments too much, I tend to disagree.  The man has his flaws as a host, certainly; no host is perfect.  When he’s on, however, he’s ON, lending dignity and gravitas that the show needs at vital moments.  What few excesses he does have tend to really be minor annoyances rather than any overall hosting problem.  Thus, when people have called for him to resign and let someone else take over, I tend to poo-poo the suggestion.  

After tonight, I’m open to it.  

Jumping ahead a bit, this is not one of the overall great finales.  Precious little happens, and while there’s no particularly BAD moments, there’s nothing that stands out as much either.  Still a solid product I’m glad I watched, but not one I’ll be chomping at the bit to go back to anytime soon.  Yet, with rare exception, the true NEGATIVES of this episode all came from Probst, and if your presences is a net negative, then yeah, replacing you is a valid consideration.  Let’s get into why, shall we?

Having realized that the “new camp” thing adds exactly zero drama, especially when it’s so anticipated the cast brings their entire camp with them, we don’t even try and play it up as a big thing.  Instead, we get everyone making their cases as to why they should win.  Heidi brings up being the last surviving Soka member, finding and playing an idol, and just in general outliving her allies.  All fair points.  I still say she has no chance, but that’s more due to the strength of other’s games making hers look relatively weak in comparison than her having zero argument here.  Yam Yam talks about his social bonds.  Carson notes how he’s been a driving force behind maneuvering Tika to the end game.  Admittedly Lauren and Carolyn don’t get as much of an argument here, the former talking about her determination in being the last surviving Ratu, and the latter talking about her growth and her emotions, but it’s something at least.  They may not make the argument directly, but you can see how it would be parlayed as such.  

In another nice change, there’s no puzzle leading to a challenge advantage this time.  Then again, perhaps that’s because they’ve hidden another idol for these people to go find instead.  Because heaven forbid we have a vote with no idol!  We get the usual hunting montage, but with no find.  We do however, get a lot of mileage out of the “Ironic confessional talking about idol hunting interposed over footage of said contestant being right next to the idol”.  That’s largely because this idol is particularly well-hidden.  The wrappings are not particularly flashy, and the tree it’s hidden in is not particularly significant-looking.  It’s also tied to a branch, forcing people to look up, rather than in a nook or knot-hole.  Point being, I’m not gonna give these players too much flak for missing this one.  Also, it may have taken the entire damn season, but these people have FINALLY learned to poke in with a stick first when idol hunting.  Better late than never, I guess.

Lauren, however, is not just hoping for an idol to keep her safe.  She determines that the Tika 3 need to be broken up, and so goes about building up how much of a threat Carson is, an argument both Yam Yam and Carolyn seem to buy.  Good for her.  

We come to our challenge, and it’s one that I’m actually a little excited for this time.  It’s your standard obstacle course leading into a puzzle, but the structure they have to climb through for the first let is actually fairly intricate, even requiring backtracking at times.  Granted, by the standards of older seasons it’s nothing impressive, but given that the new era can be described as “The Place Where Challenge Grandeur and Originality Go To Die”, I’ll take what I can get.  

While not a thing that particularly annoys me, I will say Probst was a bit nice to Carolyn in this challenge.  He tells her she’s still in it, despite basically everyone else being a leg ahead of her.  Granted, she does get to the puzzle in the end, so this is not as egregious as other instances of false Probst-hope, but still, a tad on the optimistic side.  Carson, who did well in pretty much all the legs, ends up winning, thereby making all that buildup to a possible Tika breakup entirely pointless.  

Carson also gets to go to “The Sanctuary” for spaghetti and various forms of cake.  Here is where we learn that Carson is the only non-heathen amongst the group, as the only one who correctly identifies chocolate cake as being superior to carrot cake.  Carson also gets to take one person with him, and chooses Yam Yam, which I really can’t fault.  He’s a good ally, and good person to strategize with.  Plus, if there’s any need to hide that he and Yam Yam are tight at this point (which I would say there isn’t, but hey, good to cover your bases), Carson can always fall back on “He’s received the fewest rewards this season” excuse.  

Of course, food is not the only order of business at “The Sanctuary”.  Carson winning immunity might have made the breakup of the Tika 3 unlikely, but still something to be considered.  Carson wants them to hold strong, and fears the narrative building around Lauren if she’s allowed to stay in.  Privately, Carson is also worried that breaking up the Tika 3 makes him more vulnerable, which is fair.  Yam Yam, on the other hand, is still on the “Carolyn’s a threat” train, and thinks they should get her out as a result.  Interestingly, both take stances on Carolyn that mirror the two perspectives of her from the fandom as a whole.  Carson notes that, while she did find an idol, her use of it, when looked at in a vacuum, didn’t matter.  She comes across as emotional and untethered; not the sort of person you vote for to win.   Yam Yam notes that because of how she comes across, the fact that she even kept a secret for so long comes across as impressive, and she can argue her game well.  Only time will tell which narrative the jury favors, but it’s interesting how close that conversation works.  

For Lauren, obviously, this outcome is about the worst for her.  Let it not be said she rolls over and dies, however.  Naturally, with herself, Carolyn, and Heidi left alone at camp, they talk strategy.  None of them want to go home, and Carson’s immune, so Yam Yam is naturally the name put out there.  Carolyn would seem to be the most reluctant, but Lauren rightly spills the beans on his throwing out Carolyn’s name.  Carolyn is, naturally, now rather mistrustful and upset with Yam Yam, something that shows on her face and body language when he returns from reward.  For all that Yam Yam has good emotional and interpersonal intelligence, he really seemed to initially misread the room on his return.  Then again, his asking “Are you mad at me?” to the woman whose body language clearly conveys just that was hilarious, and he does quickly pick up what happened, so I’ll let it slide.  

Carson and Yam Yam confer.  Carson’s not a fan of Tika splitting up just yet, but if it does, it seems he’d prefer Yam Yam stay over Carolyn.  Thus, Yam Yam goes and tries to pitch that Carson’s on his side to vote out Carolyn.  Lauren and Heidi seem receptive, but aren’t the most enthused, mostly due to mistrust.  They admit they’d prefer that Tika break themselves up, but don’t believe Carson would actually go for it.  Yam Yam does float out the possibility of voting for Heidi, but this is quickly dismissed, thereby hopefully preventing her from actually going, and me having to give the FINALE of a season the disgrace of an “Ethan Zohn Downside”.  

In the debate of Carolyn, Yam Yam, or Lauren, that’s the descending order I would say to get rid of them in.  Carolyn is established to be good at fire, and is building a narrative of how her perception let her sneak through.  Dangerous in the end.  Yam Yam has been good socially, more so than Lauren, who never really had power.  Granted, her narrative of surviving despite an early target is a threat, but Yam Yam had the same target several times in the early merge area, so I still give him the slight edge.  Really, the only advantages to going Lauren over Yam Yam are that keeping the Tika 3 intact is a shield for Carson (which is only an upside for Carson), and Lauren’s challenge prowess.  I wouldn’t say any of these is a terrible decision, but that would be my rankings.  And hey, we get good mystery between all three, helped along by Lauren going on another idol hunt before we head off to Tribal Council.  

Sorry, I misspoke.  I should rather say we HAD good mystery, until the Tribal Council itself started up.  Lauren becomes incredibly emotional about her time in the game, and all the obstacles she’s overcome.  One does not get this dramatic unless they’re gone and they know if.  Either Lauren is truly dead in the water, or she’s a terrible actor.  

Now, on its own, this could be a good emotional moment.  A woman who fought so hard, pushed to brink by circumstances beyond her control.  It’s good stuff, and for all my jokes about her “terrible acting”, if it’s not acting, it’s raw and compelling.  Too bad Probst has to make it a MOMENT!  Rather than just letting the scene play out, maybe ask a few probing questions to help facility more from Lauren, Probst has to talk about how “This is what ‘Survivor’ is all about!”, and how much it means to Lauren to be here, rather than letting her do it herself.  It’s like Probst doesn’t trust the cast to narrate their own season, and it’s one of my major gripes with him tonight.  The moment was fine without you, Probst.  Add yourself when needed, but you were NOT needed, except to read the votes, at this Tribal Council.  

About the only point in this Tribal Council’s favor is how the editing tricks do make Lauren’s idol bluff plausible.  Compared to, say, Max’s joke on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, given how flashback idols are now a “thing”, and the sort of editing tricks the new era brings, we entirely buy that Lauren might have found an idol without us seeing it.  It’s the one time the whole Tribal Council I thought there was any chance Lauren might not go.  

Sadly for Lauren, she does not, though she does give the remaining four a good heart attack on her way out by doing so, which I have to give some respect to.  That said, I’m not too displeased to see Lauren go here.  She was fine for what she was as a tv character, but didn’t stand out much, either as a strategist or as a visual spectacle, compared to the remaining players.  Her hair was always on point, though.  Still, if that’s the best I can say about you?  Yeah, I’d rather let the more exciting people go to finals.  

Guess nothing interesting happened at camp, as we move directly on to our immunity challenge.  Let’s see, what do we have here?  Oh, it’s Simmotion again.  Ok, time to break out “Standard Matt Complaint #12”.  It reads: “This challenge is fine, but should never be the Final Immunity Challenge.  It lacks the grandeur needed, and is not physically demanding enough.  Bring back Hand on a Hard Idol.”  

We all got that?  Good, moving on.  

Unsurprisingly, Carolyn is out first in the challenge that requires “focus”, though Yam Yam being out second is a bit of a surprise.  He was shown taking the most care in when he dropped in extra balls, and somehow, this challenge seemed like it would fit his skill set, kind of like how the water torture one was a few episodes back.  But now, it’s a showdown between Carson and Heidi, with Heidi ultimately taking the victory, her first individual win of the season.  A big accomplishment for her, only to be undercut by her telling Probst IMMEDIATELY that she’s considering putting herself in fire.  

Look, it’s not that I don’t understand where Heidi is coming from.  As she notes, she doesn’t have a ton of accomplishments.  I even brought up myself that her resume is not as strong as those remaining.  A victory in fire is a big accomplishment.  But a victory in immunity should be bigger.  Not only did you beat four people instead of one, but you didn’t do it by making yourself vulnerable.  I know the show is pushing the narrative of “You need to take risks to win.” since it makes for better tv, but call me crazy, I find more impressive the person who MINIMIZED their risks rather than actively sought them out.  When Erik gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When Brandon Hantz gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When the entire Manono Tribe gave up immunity on “Survivor One World”, we lambasted it as a bad move.  So why not here?

I was never a big fan of forced Final Four Fire Making to begin with, but as the seasons have gone on, I’ve come to loathe it with every fibre of my being, and it’s mostly to do with the culture that’s grown up around it.  This idea that, if you win immunity, you HAVE to put yourself in fire making to have a shot.  That you have to ACTIVELY take yourself out of safety to be considered as a worthy winner.  That a move that, in a vacuum, is objectively bad, is somehow the thing you HAVE to do.  It’s incentivizing bad gameplay, and it’s not what I want to see.  

About the only time I can see such a move making sense is if the person you want out is good at fire making, and ONLY you have a shot at beating them.  And even then, I think it’s still a move that’s debatable at best, as perceived skill at fire making is subjective.  If you aren’t the best at fire, don’t put yourself in fire if you won immunity.  You still maneuvered the pieces where you want them.  That should be respected just as much, if not more, as winning in fire.  But no, as the show presents it, it isn’t, and I am pissed.  I am tired of people like Natalie on “Survivor Winners at War”, or Cassidy last season, being lambasted by the jury for NOT doing so, despite it being actively bad for their games to do so.  Granted, both had other reasons they shouldn’t have won (Natalie for being voted out first and only saved due to the Edge of Extinction, another twist I hate; Cassidy for burning too many jury bridges late in the game), but instead of these reasons, we get the fire-making problem trotted out, and frankly, I’m sick of it.  

Now, there is one major difference between Heidi and some of the examples I’ve provided.  Namely, Heidi is actually SHOWN to be good at fire.  Hell, in a nice bit of foreshadowing, it’s literally the first thing we saw her doing all season.  But it’s not like other people are slouches either.  Carolyn and Yam Yam are both shown to be decent at it as well.  Only Carson, the guy Heidi most wants out, is shown to be actively bad at it, in which case, good.  Let someone else take the risk, and you still get the outcome you want.  You maneuvered the pieces to the outcome you desired.  How is that any less respectable, or less good gameplay, than putting yourself in fire?

Also, I can only conclude that Carson’s 3-D printed fire does not translate to the island.  I kid, I kid.  Carson did indeed practice this, but the old-fashioned way, and again, can’t really fault him in that, even if it’s not bearing fruit here.  

For all my griping, I will say this does lead to ONE good scene.  Yam Yam, seeing Carson struggle, gives him tips on how to make fire.  This is a move that, as Yam Yam admits, might not be the best, since he could very well be put against Carson in fire, and be giving tips to the guy he loses to.  Once again, however, Yam Yam’s heart outweighs his logic, and helps anyway, just as a kind human being.  The pair bond, there’s a lot of hugs and nice words.  It’s a powerful moment, probably the stand-out one of the episode.  

Hey, Probst?  Notice how that moment DIDN’T need you commenting on how touching it was, and in fact stood up all the better without it?  Take notes.  

Our Tribal Council is really just an excuse for Heidi to reveal who’s going into fire, and to her credit, she is showy about it.  She first reveals that Carolyn is NOT going into fire, to which Carolyn is visibly relieved.  And, for all my complaints about Probst this episode, I will say this is one moment where he hits it perfectly in terms of hosting.  He does probe Carolyn with a few questions to get her to go more deeply into what she’s feeling, but doesn’t try to force the moment to be more than it is.  It’s good stuff, and if he goes back to more of this hosting style, I will retract my statement at the top of this blog.  

To no one’s surprise, Heidi reveals that Carson will be in fire, before doing the dumb and going in herself.  For all my complaints about this move in a vacuum, however, it’s hard to argue with the results.  Not only does Heidi decisively win against Carson, she even cracks Gabler’s record from last season, something Probst is quick to note.  Good for her on that front.  I still say it’s an unnecessary move, and not one that’s truly “smart”, but it cannot be denied that Heidi has an unassailable victory after this.  

Our finalists repeat their arguments for why they should win during the day 26 breakfast.  It’s mostly stuff we’ve heard before.  Heidi’s being the last Soka standing/taking out Carson, Yam Yam’s social game, Carolyn playing up the perception of herself to maneuver in the shadows.  That said, in another nice bookend to the season, Carolyn talks to the same producer she did to open the season, and again, we hear from him.  That’s a fun note to go off to Tribal Council on.  

The lack of individual jury questions has really made modern Final Tribal Councils all blend together, and this one is largely no different.  Carson’s expressions on the jury, particularly his indicating to Carolyn what the jury wanted to hear, are pretty much gold, but that’s about the only thing of note.  The jury is nice, but pretty toothless.  Nor do the arguments from our finalists really bear much mention.  All actually do a pretty good job arguing their case, using the tools and viewpoints we’ve seen before.  Heidi strongly advocates for herself, Yam Yam turns on the charm, and Carolyn brings up the emotion/gameplay divide, and articulates how she use her perception by others to her advantage.  Really, the worst gaffe any of them has is Yam Yam at one point saying “Emotions.  I have them.”, and even this gets played off as a joke.  

No, the real thing of note at this Tribal Council is, once again, Probst, who WAY oversteps his bounds.  When the new jury format was first rolled out on “Survivor Game Changers”, one of my main complaints was how Probst was too involved in the discussion, basically giving the criteria for what the jury should discuss in regards to a winner.  Felt too much like production interference in the jury’s decision making.  As time has gone on, Probst has backed of majorly in this area, limiting himself to ensuring the discussion goes on at a good pace, at most giving extremely broad categories the jury can define how they want.  Here, while he didn’t go full “Game Changers”, it did feel like he was more involved in what went into the categories than he did in recent seasons, and again brings up the stink of production having too much influence on the jury.  

But oh no, this is not Probst’s worst sin on the night.  No, that comes when Carolyn breaks down a bit when discussion turns to challenge performance, and she talks about how she kind of failed, since, you know, challenge performance was a weakness.  This COULD have been a gaffe, but Probst instead has to give us the perspective that her coming out and trying mean that she succeeded, rather than failed.  

Probst.  Buddy.  I like you.  I even respect a lot of your talents.  We have our disagreements, but overall, I think you’re a pretty cool dude.  So understand, it comes from my love of the show and the game, not anything against you personally, when I say the following:  

SHUT UP!  FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, THIS IS THE JURY’S TIME TO SPEAK, NOT YOURS!  THAT PERSPECTIVE YOU BRING IS VALID, BUT IT IS NOT YOUR TIME TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON THE PROCEEDINGS.  IF THE JURY AGRESS WITH YOU, GREAT!  LET THEM BRING IT UP!  IF THEY DON’T, THEN IT IS NOT YOUR PLACE TO DO SO!  IN INJECTING YOURSELF WHERE YOU DON’T NEED TO BE, YOU RUIN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A SOLID MOMENT FOR YOUR SEASON, AND COMPROMISE THE INTEGRITY OF THE GAME YOU CLAIM TO LOVE.  IF THERE IS TRULY ANY IOTA OF RESPECT FOR THE GAME, OR THE ART OF THE SHOW, LEFT WITHIN YOU, THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!  

Hoo, I feel better now.  Anyway, rant done, it’s all downhill from here.  We get yet another 7-1-0 vote, our fourth in a row.  Not sure what it is about the new era that brings that particular voting combination out, but it’s definitely progressed to the point of “pattern” by now.  Somewhat to my surprise, our victor is Yam Yam.  I’d have given Carolyn the best odds, given how well she articulated weaponizing the perception of herself, but she didn’t even make second.  Heidi earns the vote of her ally Danny, which I can understand.  Guess he respected her using him as a shield.  

And this is not to take away from Yam Yam’s win.  His social game was better shown than many, and he did make a very compelling argument about how he read the emotions of others to inform his game.  Not who I would have voted for our of the three, but given how late Heidi’s game picked up, and I guess how baked-in the early perceptions of Carolyn were, I can understand why things ended up the way they did.  Kudos to him; a win well-earned.  

I will say this: This season made the first compelling argument for the immediate after-show, rather than the live reunions of the past.  We mostly hit the highlights of the season one would expect (talking to our finalists, Matt and Frannie, all the early medical issues, etc.), and it’s all pretty standard in general.  But, not willing to let that plot point go un-exploited, Probst and production reveal that Jaime’s idol was a fake planted by Matthew, of course after going through all the steps and drama said idol caused.  Everyone’s reactions are delightfully raw and over-the-top; something you wouldn’t get at a live reunion where everyone knew already.  Now, does this mean I’m done with wanting live reunions back?  Of course not!  There’s ways you could have kept that live reaction in there even in the old format.  Say, film Jaime watching the episode where she finds the idol for the first time, then playing that.  Plus, then you could have Matthew himself talk about that play, rather than just name-dropping him and giving him a well-deserved toast.  So help me, I want to hear from the pre-jury, dammit.  

Our preview for “Survivor 45” is pretty standard.  Cast looks ok.  Not much to write home about.  The dude talking about his great-grandfather robbing the bank seems cool.  The young guy living with his grandmother might make for some fun confessionals.  But nothing that gets me hyped for the season.  Nothing that warns me off of it either, but maybe a bit sub-par compared to recent previews.  That said, I LOVE the logo for the season.  Colorful, but simple in design.  It stands out without being too busy.  Plus, it has an ominous air about it, mostly due to the logo featuring Osten’s nemesis from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, Pelican Pete.  

Before we get into looking back over my pre-season predictions, and seeing how accurate they were, I do want to touch briefly on the predictions I made in the last blog.  This is mostly because, contrary to what some might say, I think I was pretty spot on.  Nearly everything proceeded as I had foreseen it.  Really, there were only two things one could say I “missed”.  Heidi won final immunity, rather than my prediction of Yam Yam.  That said, I still kind of count this given that Heidi went into fire anyway, and that was more overall was the point I was trying to make.  Then I called Carolyn winning this final three, and… Yeah, ok, I take the loss on that one.  I was completely off on how the jury would see things.  Still, one inaccuracy in an otherwise pretty spot-on description?  I’ll take it.  Now, on to the individual predictions, and how they held up.  

Claire-Wrong.  In my defense, I DID say she could be vulnerable if her tribe went to early Tribal Councils.  I just didn’t think they would do so.  

Matt-Wrong, just straight up.  I didn’t overestimate his game sense TOO much, but regardless, he still hung on longer than expected.  

Carolyn-Wrong.  Far more game sense than I had anticipated.  

Lauren-Hung on a bit longer than expected, but I think I nailed how she would play the game overall.  

Danny-I could just copy and paste Lauren’s description.  I was maybe a bit too down on his game sense, but still fairly close overall.  Dude just stuck around slightly longer than expected.  

Heidi-Wrong.  Much quieter, and as a result much longer-lived, than I anticipated.  

Carson-Wrong.  Much better socially, and thus had a longer time in the game, than I anticipated.  

Maddy-Wrong, though for once on this list, someone I overestimated rather than underestimated.  

Bruce-Hard to say whether I nailed his gameplay or not, since we never really got to see it, but I did say he could be a medevac, so I’ll give myself this one.  Lord knows I need all the wins I can get this season.  

Sarah-Wrong, though in my defense, I couldn’t have predicted quite how much her tribe would implode.  

Matthew-I probably undersold his gameplay, but pretty much nailed his time in the game, and again, gave him as a medevac possibility.  I’ll give myself this one.  

Helen-Wrong.  Much worse at managing her threat level than I thought, and out early because of it.  

Josh-Not as wrong as some others, but shorter-lived and less good socially than I had thought.  

Jaime-Wrong on time in the game, but I would say dead on for personality.  

Kane-Wrong.  Just longer lived in general than I thought.  

Frannie-Apart from being an unexpected individual challenge beast, I’d say I got Frannie pretty well in my description.  

Brandon-Maybe a little underestimated, but I’ll call this one “right” for me.  

Yam Yam-In a season where my predictions range from “Kind of similar to how it went, if you squint” to “Completely, 100% off-base”, I’m pleased to say this is my one prediction that was absolutely right.  Weird how my early bet was actually better than AFTER I started watching the season.  

Speaking of, there’s been a lot of praise for this season, and rightly so.  A good mix of character and strategy, generally likable people throughout, and a post-merge relatively free of twists are all good selling points.  Alongside a strong aesthetic theme, this is definitely a good season.  A step up from “Survivor 43” in my opinion.  That said, I’d stop short of calling it “great”, as some are already doing.  This is definitely a season with more positive than negative about it, but there’s a couple of things that stop it from going that far for me.  A few, admittedly, are just nitpicks and/or extremely subjective points.  More gross-out humor than some other seasons.  My personal favorites going out pre-merge, leaving me with a back half that, while I didn’t DISLIKE anyone there, left me with no one I was particularly strongly rooting for.  

However, there are two big points that keep this out of the “Great” category for me.  One is that, while I appreciated the relatively twist-free post-merge, the slog between the mergeatory and probably the Frannie boot was confusing and frustrating.  Take the lesson, show: No major twists post-merge period.  The other, and probably the biggest issue, is predictability.  Individual episodes did ok with mystery, but the narrative made it pretty clear early on, or at least once we got down to three original Tika left, that one of them was going to win.  Not knowing exactly WHO, and those three playing a masterful game that was well-shown keep it out of the “bad” category, but it’s missing the uncertainty I feel it needed to be truly “Great”.  Hardly a bad season, though.  

Now we enter the long off-season, but don’t think you won’t be hearing from me at all!  Keep an eye out for more of the off-season content I so enjoy bringing.  More “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?” are certainly on the horizon, and if the mood strikes, perhaps something more…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 12: Illumination

Contrary to what you might expect, this week’s title does NOT refer to our spotlight-stealing-squad that is Carolyn.  No, this refers to Illumination Entertainment, the animation studio responsible for giving us everyone’s favorite annoying, walking memes, the Minions.  And specifically, I’m referring to said studio’s propensity for gross-out humor, something I personally didn’t want on “Survivor”, but this seasons is giving us in spades regardless of what I want, from Danny’s fart to Carolyn asking for a chocolate burp from Yam Yam this episode.   

Despite Heidi being in a position to be left out and upset, our post-Tribal discussion centers around Carolyn.  With the reveal that she had the Tika idol, which no one called (Yam Yam claims to have, but if he did, we never saw it.), everyone sings her praises.  She of course gets asked about the “Red X” thing from WAY back in the season, and she can’t help but tell the whole story.  She spins a good yarn about it, too, helping to assuage fears that she might not be able to sell herself/her game well at Final Tribal Council.  Perhaps realizing how big a target this makes her, though, she tries to downplay it, saying it was just her being crazy.  Absolutely zero people buy this.  About the person still the most skeptical is Lauren, and even she more says Carolyn has strategy under a crazy appearance than actually dismissing her strategy.  

While Heidi doesn’t outwardly say she’s concerned about her position, she is the first one up to look for an idol, assuming Carolyn’s was re-planted.  She’s not stealthy enough for Carson, however, and he alerts everyone else, leading to a mass idol-hunt.  While Heidi does have her own idol, she wants two to ensure she’s safe up until Final Four Fire-Making.  Fair enough.  She doesn’t find it; indeed no one finds it, at least that we see.  All we get is more confirmation that these people do not know proper idol-hunting technique.  So many hands blindly plunged into trees.  Poke in with a stick first, people!  Snakes are still a thing!  

Without idols, talk turns to strategy.  Having evidently realized their error in not breaking up the Tika Three before, Jaime and Lauren set out to do so now, hyping up to Carson and Yam Yam how much of a threat Carolyn has turned out to be.  They subtly hint that Carolyn should go, and Carson and Yam Yam agree to their faces.  Unfortunately, our narrator for this strategy is Jaime, and as the pattern of the season goes, Jaime must be wrong.  Thus, this plan is doomed to failure before it even begins.  

Sure enough, Carson admits in confessional that he wants to keep Carolyn around, which makes sense for him.  While Carolyn is a bigger threat, Carson is probably the one person left who can still beat her, and thus his concern is less “Who do I get to the end with?” and more “How do I get to the end?”  Keeping around Carolyn, who’s shown amazing loyalty to him thus far, and is an eye-catching target he can shield himself with, is thereby a smart move.  

Notice I only talked about Carson’s perspective there.  We’ll come back to Yam Yam.  

Our reward challenge is the Russell Swan Memorial Ball Roll, commemorating the man’s near-death in “Survivor Samoa”.  Not sure why we want that commemorated, since I know for a fact it turned at least one person off “Survivor” permanently, but since this challenge was also used last season, I’m guessing budget is a factor.  Honestly, the only noticeable change is a few branches tied to the top of each ball, which seems kind of pointless.  I guess it’s to make it look like the ball picked up debris in later shots, but it’s so obvious early on, that it seems more trouble than it’s worth.  

Our random division of teams this time gives the orange team, that being Lauren, Carson, and Yam Yam, an edge.  They have the best puzzle-solvers on their side.  They have the strongest people left in the game on their side.  And, perhaps their biggest advantage of all, they DON’T have Carolyn, who somehow managed to lose the ball when she should have had a fairly good grip on it, or at least a decent spatial sense of where it was throughout.  While the purple team does get to the table maze at the end (both Jaime and Carson, the callers for their respective teams, being ok being placed in a “Superman” horizontal pose rather than being rotated upright for some reason), orange easily beats them, earning a day at The Sanctuary, foot massages, and sandwiches.  And people say the rewards aren’t great in the modern era.  Please note the sarcasm.  

Yam Yam is happy to have basically anything, but Jaime is happy too.  Evidently Carson’s relative disinterest in getting rid of Carolyn did not go unnoticed, and so Jaime pitches to Carolyn getting rid of Carson.  She meets with basically the same result.  Carolyn says to her face it’s a good idea, but privately notes that while she does need to get rid of Carson, it’s too soon.  Again, can’t fault the logic here.  Carson is probably the only person left Carolyn DOESN’T beat, but as she’s such a big target, she probably does need a shield around.  If Tika breaks up now, even assuming Carson goes, Carolyn is probably gone next.  Hence, she should probably wait a vote or two before striking (I’m assuming Carolyn has a way to get Carson out at Final Four Firemaking).  

To help prevent any sort of counter-alliance, Carolyn offers Heidi a spot to split up the remaining old Ratu, which Heidi agrees with, partly because they voted against her last time, and partly because it would let her save her idol.  I’d say Heidi’s best interest is still probably to break up Tika, since she NEEDS to strike out on her own if she’s going to have a chance at the end of showing she had agency, but I can see her points here.  

All this is not to say those at The Sanctuary DON’T strategize.  Indeed, Lauren pitches them again the idea of getting rid of Carolyn.  It’s here that we get Yam Yam’s perspective.  Of the Tika Three, he’s the most receptive to breaking up the group now.  Which, again, makes sense.  What works in Yam Yam’s favor in the end is that he’s very sociable.  The show has done a good job of demonstrating that Yam Yam is well-liked, and he does have the argument of “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury.”  Working against Yam Yam is that, as the default decoy boot, you’re often seen as not having enough agency in your own game to be worthy of winning in the end.  Again, look at the case of Romeo on “Survivor 42”: It’s not that the man DIDN’T have any sort of argument he could make, and it’s not that he didn’t acquit himself well at Final Tribal Council.  It’s that by the time he got there, he was considered such a non-factor in the strategy of the game that no one was really willing to give him the time of day.  Yam Yam needs to prevent this at all costs, and breaking up the Tika Three shows that he had agency, and takes the people who might be considered to have “dragged him to the end” out of the equation.  It is risky, given that he would be an easy target at four in that case, but then again, with how many people say they want him in the end, he’s in as good a position there as he can hope for regardless.  Besides, better to go out at four with a shot to win than to make the finals against people you’re hopeless against.  

Upon his return to camp, Carolyn and Carson compare notes.  The pair mock the non-Tika for trying to break up Tika, saying they’re being too obvious about it.  I get where they’re coming from, but I think they’re a bit mean here.  I mean, what do you expect, everyone else to just roll over and let your tribe dominate?  I suppose that’s what they’ve been doing so far since the merge, but these players aren’t that stupid.  They might as well throw everything against the wall to form a crack.  At this point, what choice do they have?  

I know the individual immunity challenges have been nothing to write home about, but MAN this one is lame.  It’s the “Balance a ball on a plate between two ropes” challenge we’ve seen too much of by now, and it just not interesting.  To make matters worse, this group really stinks at this particular challenge.  Lauren and Heidi are the only two who make it through the first (10-minute) round, and Heidi drops pretty quickly into round two.  Lauren’s curtsey upon getting the necklace put on is nice, at least.  

Lauren winning immunity is a slight wrinkle in things, since Tika’s plan was to break up Ratu by sending her home.  That wrinkle is quickly ironed out by switching the target to Jaime.  Probably the least-strategic player left in the game at this point, but hey, it’s the one Heidi will accept, so we’re going with that.  Heidi for her part says she’d like to hold on to her idol, but will play it if she feels threatened.  This is also known as “Bog Standard Idol Confessional #5”.  

Thus it falls to Yam Yam to do the heavy lifting for misdirection this episode, ramping up his anti-Carolyn dialogue.  Yam Yam frames this as a duel between his heart and his head.  Do the strategically smart thing and get out a threat to better his own position, or keep a friend around at the cost of his game.  An old dilemma, but a solid one.  Basically the bread and butter of “Survivor”.  

Recognizing that with Heidi on board, he needs Carson to vote with him, he pitches the idea to Carson.  In addition to the “threat” argument already made, Yam Yam notes that Carolyn will be tough to take on in fire, stating that she practiced so much she was “bleeding”.  If this were about anyone else, I would dismiss it as hyperbole, but in Carolyn’s case that may be true.  With Yam Yam pitching the idea, Carson is considering it, as Carolyn’s a threat, but remains reluctant.  What’s interesting here is that Yam Yam and Carson NEED to vote together for either side to have a majority, but their interests are diametrically opposed, as I’ve already said Carson’s smartest move is to keep Carolyn, while Yam Yam’s is to vote her out.  I’d say if we’re trying to find the best compromise between the two, getting rid of Carolyn is probably slightly better, as Carson’s then eliminating his one true threat at Final Tribal, but again, I can see why he’d want to keep Carolyn around.  

In a rarity for misdirection this season, I don’t buy it for a second.  Yeah, sorry, this episode is about the only one this season where I would say the outcome is entirely predictable.  Perhaps they had no choice with who said what in confessional, but the big flaw here is making Jaime the driving force behind wanting Carolyn out.  You can’t spend all season building up how everything she says is wrong, only then to turn around and expect me to believe that one of her plans will actually work.  

It seems the quality of Tribal Council is inversely proportional to how much of a mystery the vote is.  To contrast with our completely obvious vote, we have a Tribal Council that’s actually exciting, emotional, and metaphor-free!  We start off with the reveal that, in anticipation of moving to a new camp for the last few days, they brought everything from their old camp, even the paintbrushes.  Lauren did most of the schlepping, due to her being immune.  Probst is amused, but I’m just sitting here smugly, waiting for him to tell me again how “unpredictable” this new era of the show is.  

A comedic amount of supplies is not the only good bit, however.  There’s come decent banter for once, and most of the talk centers around emotion vs. strategy.  Carolyn gives the thesis that one can play with emotion, while still being strategic, again subtly setting up her argument for the jury beforehand.  Smart move on her part.  Yam Yam then talks about the heart/head debate again, and even tears up a bit over it.  It tugs at the heartstrings, even predicting the outcome.  It may not be a legendary Tribal Council, but after they’ve ranged from “Blah” to “Extremely Blah” this season, I’ll take it.  

I can’t say that I blame Heidi too much for playing her idol.  With Lauren immune, and no faith on her end that the Tika Three would break apart, Heidi had a 50/50 chance of going.  Better to play an idol than to go out with one in your pocket.  Sadly, I do think this torpedos any chance she has of winning the game.  Heidi really needed to demonstrate here that she could make smart moves on her own.  While understandable, and getting some good reactions from the jury, Heidi didn’t negate a single vote, and has made herself more vulnerable at Final Five.  Plus, she needed all of Tika to leave before finals for her to have good people to argue against, and with this outcome, that mathematically can’t happen now.  

Yep, the predictable thing happened.  Yam Yam stuck with his heart, and Jaime is gone.  Overall, I can’t say I’m too sorry.  She was by no means annoying or anything, but the “Jaime is always wrong” storyline only has so much mileage.  Plus, she was the only one going into this episode who I would say had no winning finals combination (I would say Heidi is there as well now, but that’s as a result of this episode, not before it), so we keep the “best” players in the game, for want of a better word.  Really, the biggest downside to Jaime leaving is how predictable it makes the finale, something I’ll get into in a bit.  

Speaking about just this episode, I will say it’s very efficient.  Hits the strategic points, emotional moments, and challenges in a flowing manner, one logically leading to the next.  With the exception of the banter at Tribal Council itself, which I maintain is the best of the season to date, nothing really stands out about this episode.  It does what it needs to adequately, but not spectacularly.  An enjoyable episode, but not a legendary one.  

That said, it’s time for my traditional penultimate-episode PLAYER RANKINGS!  For the unfamiliar, I list out the players who are left, in descending order of who I think has the best shot at winning should they get to the end.  A reminder that this is assuming they GET to the end, not a ranking of how LIKELY they are to get there.  With all that said, this should come with few surprises, starting with my number one pick…

1. CARSON-As always, this spot is reserved for the person who wins outright assuming they get to the end, and this season, that person can only be Carson.  I can see arguments for Carolyn, but Carson, like her, has strategic accomplishments he can lean on (particularly in how he helped play Ratu against Soka), but doesn’t have the baggage of how he was perceived early on to overcome.  Everyone loves Carson, so he doesn’t have to worry about being beaten socially by basically anyone.  Should he get to the end, I see no downside that should prevent his winning.  

2. CAROLYN-Carolyn has really moved up in the rankings these past two weeks.  Her perception as “crazy” and “emotional” was the big problem initially, but Carolyn has been really proactive countering this narrative to the jury.  Playing an idol no one else knew about, seeding them that being emotional does not include playing strategically.  If Carolyn wants a shot at the end, she’s made all the right moves to do so, hence why she claims the number two spot.  It’s only the concern that that first impression may linger in some jurors that keeps her out of the top spot, but as long as she’s not up against Carson, I don’t believe it will be a deal-breaker.  

3. YAM YAM-Yep, the Tika Three take the top three spots.  We’ll get into that more in a bit.  For now, Yam Yam’s biggest strength, as I said, is that he’s well-liked.  He’s someone the jury would WANT to vote for in several situations.  What Yam Yam lacks is a strategic justification for that popularity vote, and while the social game is still king, you need to give the jury at least SOMETHING to justify it.  “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury” isn’t nothing, but pales in comparison to what Carolyn and Carson each have.  Thus, Yam Yam’s best hope is to go to the end with Lauren and Heidi, since they don’t really have any more strategic accomplishments than he does, and his social game would therefore stand out a bit more.  

4. LAUREN-Despite being fourth, I don’t see Lauren having NO shot at the end, but things will have to go exactly right for her.  She can make the “I was repeatedly targeted as a threat and still made it” argument, since many on the jury (particularly Danny) wanted her out at several points.  There’s also nothing to suggest any of the jury particularly dislike her.  Her main issue is that her strategic game pales in comparison to Carolyn and Carson, and her social game pales in comparison to all of Tika.  She needs Carolyn and Carson out, then needs to REALLY lay into Yam Yam at finals to have a shot.  Impossible?  No.  Unlikely?  Yes.

5. HEIDI-In contrast to Carolyn, Heidi has fallen the most in these rankings.  It’s a shame, too, as her game has been quiet, but when she’s not trying to make a move in the open, it’s decent.  She’s staying alive, and remains well-liked, so that’s something.  But she really needed to not face the Tika Three, and be seen as a driving force behind getting them out, to have a shot.  Without that, and with the blundered idol play (even if it was understandable) this episode, I just don’t see that happening.  

And that, really, is the one problem I have with this season.  We’ll see how the finale goes, but so far it’s been a solid season.  Likable characters, with a focus ON those characters, rather than twists.  Good theming, good mystery in general.  There’s a lot to like.  But, fascinating as it is to watch the Tika Three masterfully play both sides against each other, it does lead to a fairly predictable outcome where you know one of that group is going to win.  Granted, it’s still better than seasons like “Survivor One World” or “Survivor Redemption Island” where it was obvious from early on exactly WHO was going to win.  But still, marching to the end with almost no pushback does not an interesting finale make.  

I think the problem we face here is that the show is overcorrecting for the outcome of “Survivor 43”.  Recall that Gabler’s win was… controversial, shall we say.  Many people said his win came out of nowhere, and they didn’t understand it.  Probst, I believe, has even acknowledged that they may have hid his win too well, and took that into consideration for “Survivor 44”.  And in general, I think that was good feedback to take.  I know a lot of people have gone back over “Survivor 43”, and said they understand Gabler’s win better, but I disagree.  The flaw, to me, is twofold.  First, there’s the violation of “Show, Don’t Tell”.  I concede the win of Gabler was foreshadowed.  All his talk about being the “Alli-Gabler”, and “Hiding in plain sight” certainly hinted at that.  But while we’re told he COULD win, we’re not told WHY.  True, it was probably his social game, and Gabler would hardly be the first social-winner to be under-edited, but again, we’re just TOLD that part of his game is good, not SHOWN how it’s good.  The few times he does make a social bond, such as the “Ride or Die” alliance, it’s underplayed to the point that we forget it even happened.  What we remember is his over the top, messy public gameplay, not the little private stuff.  

That ties into the second problem in showing Gabler’s win: His early narrative was never countered.  The few times Gabler DID take strategic prominence in his season, it was threatening to use his Shot in the Dark unnecessarily, and being blunt about wanting Elie out.  While he did get his way, the way this move was executed did not scream “Subtle strategist”, and thus we the audience dismiss him in terms of winner contention.  That’s partly on us, but again, when half the show feeds us the narrative of “Gabler is a messy player”, it’s understandable why the perception from the viewing audience might be different than that of the jury.  Thus, the show wants to correct this, particularly if Carolyn ends up being the winner, since she could also be described as “Messy” in some of her early gameplay.  The winner was too subtle last time?  Make it obvious which group is dominant?  Winner makes some controversial moves?  Make sure we get insight into their strategic thinking as well to counteract that narrative.  Yes, particularly in Carolyn wins, this will all make sense, but again, I feel like perhaps a bit TOO much sense.  Perhaps I’m impossible to please, and certainly if push comes to shove, I will say this season is better than the last.  But it feels like they went from making the winner not visible enough to too obvious.  Somewhere in here there’s a middle ground, and I hope the editors can find it.  

I say IF Carolyn wins, but personally, I think it’s going to happen.  Hell, I’ll even predict how the finale goes once again: Lauren is out at 5.  She loses the immunity challenge, is feared for her challenge wins and respected strategy (as the assumed head of Ratu), and Heidi, happy it’s not her, jumps on board.  At Final Four, Yam Yam wins an unexpected immunity, and not wanting Carolyn to win any glory, sends Heidi and Carson to fire.  This has been foreshadowed for both, as Heidi started the fire for Soka back in episode 1, and Carson keeps getting shots of fire reflected in his glasses.  Carson completes his “Fallen Angel” arc by losing just shy of Finals, and we have a Heidi, Yam Yam, Carolyn final three.  As my rankings showed, Carolyn wins.  Possibly unanimously, though Yam Yam could pick up a vote or two with charm and a good performance.  

Hoo boy, for a pretty standard episode, this ended up being a long blog.  Let’s see how much the finale tops the length by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 8: Live by the Idol, Die by the Idol

If there’s any episode that should prove to production that it’s the QUALITY of an advantage used, rather than how many there are, it’s this episode.  Skipping ahead to my overall thoughts, this was a snooze-fest of an episode right up until the last five minutes, which had a poetic beauty that elevated it to “Pretty Good, Actually” territory.  One that was caused by advantage playing but simple ones with a good parallel, not a bunch being thrown at our face a la Advantagegeddon of “Survivor Game Changers”.  But before we can start on that journey, we have to do some cleanup on the previous one, as it’s time once again for another…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty simple one this time.  When talking of Yam Yam naming the tribe, I discussed the name he actually gave it, and my thoughts therein.  I failed, however, to discuss his first, mostly sarcastic, attempted naming.  Yam Yam, hilariously, tried to convince the other contestants that “Yam Yam”, as in his name, was Fijian for “Survivor”.  A good, humorous moment, and not just because I once tried to convince a draft pool I was in that “Mattrox” was Fijian for “Triumph”.  

For the record, Google says the Fijian word for “Triumph” is actually “Qaqa”.  

Heidi starts off our episode proper by giving us more insight into why she played her “Control a Vote” advantage the way she did.  As suspected, she didn’t want anyone mad at her for using it, and so “Played the middle” by indicating the outcome she wanted without making moves that would outright change the outcome unless the remaining players were willing.  I can see the logic, Heidi, but must ask: If not offending people was your goal, why play the advantage at all?  Frannie would probably be mad at inaction in saving Matt, I suppose, but that’s one person mad versus at least two I’d feel like you piss off in this scenario: Lauren for effectively having a vote stolen, and Yam Yam, whom you directed her to vote for.  

Then again, Yam Yam seems oddly chill about the whole situation.  For all that this guy has not been the best at dealing with the aftermath of a Tribal Council, I will give Yam Yam credit that he handles this one excellently.  What with him receiving votes, one directed by someone outside the group of five he was with, I’d expect him to be incredibly upset.  Perhaps because he knows how tight the old Ratu were, however, Yam Yam is mostly just thankful to still be around.  When Heidi makes overtures to him about teaming up with the old Soka against old Ratu, Yam Yam and the rest of old Tika seem pretty on-board, and this is the woman who effectively voted for him last episode.  Yam Yam, you’re learning!  Kudos!

Yam Yam even comforts the person TRULY upset by the outcome of last episode, Frannie.  Yes, only now is Frannie realizing the consequences of not “accidentally” losing the previous challenge.  Surprisingly, Frannie’s mood is more due to the emotion of the thing than the loss of a good strategic partner.  True, Frannie’s hardly a game-bot, but she was the less obviously love-struck of our pair, and so I expected her to lean more on the game angle.  If not that, then the relationship angle.  But no, it’s the mirror neurons that are getting Frannie.  She empathizes with Matt so much that seeing him voted out is like getting herself voted out.  You think that’s bad, Frannie, try sharing a name with someone being voted out.  It’s a gut punch, every time.  Most everyone, including her own tribe, isn’t too happy with this attitude, but admit they have bigger fish to fry than Frannie right now.  

Up comes the sun, and with it, up comes Carson’s reward.  Yes, Carson is our over-indulger of the season, later telling us he awoke no less than 8 times the previous night to vomit up his peanut butter and jelly sandwiches.  This was played up to be another Joe del Campo moment from “Survivor Kaoh Rong” in the preview, but given Carson’s young age, he’s naturally fine, just not very happy with his body right now.  He calls it “The worst night of his life”, which I would normally dismiss as hyperbole.  However, given how young Carson is, and how much it sucks being sick in a strange place… Yeah, he might not be exaggerating there.  

Tree Mail arrives, with what for our players is a strange note, but for us the audience seems quite familiar.  They’re told to divide themselves into pairs, meaning we’re getting the same twist as last season, only at the final 10 instead of the final 12.  This, retroactively, makes me more ok with the tribe division twist last episode, since we’re getting a normal merge vote now (and presumably a normal one at the final 9, which we haven’t had in a while).  I’d still prefer they just not do the tribe division twist post-merge altogether, but hey, take what I can get.  The good news is that, unlike last season, the group does not just do a random draw to determine teams!  The bad news is that this cast is just so lovey-dovey that absolutely zero drama comes from it!  Even with Carson, whom you’d think would be fought over in some way (either as the top pick if they think they’re going up against one another, or the bottom pick if they think they need him to win), is given fair consideration, with Carolyn ultimately volunteering to pair up with him.  

The other pairs highlighted are the two “older ladies” Jaime and Heidi agreeing to team up, along with Danny and Lauren.  The latter is especially noteworthy, as Danny had been on the warpath against Lauren earlier due to her extra vote.  Lauren acknowledges that Danny might not have wanted her with him, but she definitely wanted to be with him, and I’m sure this is in NO WAY foreshadowing what will come this episode.  

Not only is the twist copied from last season, but the challenge largely is as well.  Apart from only one elimination in leg one (due to the lessened number of players), only the last leg is different, being the “Stand in the frame” challenge first seen on “Survivor Fiji” rather than the “Hod the rope bar” one that Gabler used as an excuse to thank everyone and their mothers.  The first leg is going through that twisted, muddy net, then digging up a pair of planks, while the second is crossing a rope bridge using said planks; top two teams move on to an individual round of four.  If you’re going to bring back a challenge from last season, this is probably the one to do, though again, I would still wish for original challenges.  

Ironically, it is not Carson that costs him and Carolyn this leg, but Carolyn herself.  Partly that’s because she goes first, but she was WAY behind everyone else.  Shock of all shocks, her usual challenge M.O. of “Panicked Enthusiasm” was not very effective against a twisty net that requires a certain amount of finesse.  Though kudos to the show for not making a “Moment” out of everyone coming to help Carson out of the net.  

Round two sees Jaime and Heidi eliminated alongside Yam Yam and Frannie, though a special shout-out is deserved for the team of Brandon and Kane, whom I gave basically zero odds to get through the rope bridge segment.  A lower center of gravity is better for this sort of challenge, meaning tall guys like Kane and Brandon are inherently going to have a harder time.  Yet, frankly, they crushed this leg; good for them.  

Unfortunately for them, as Yul explained on “Survivor Cook Islands” mass goes up faster than surface area, so all the guys are pretty well screwed on this particular final leg.  Sure enough, Lauren’s our winner, though Danny does put up a good fight.  He forces Lauren to have to go all the way to the final, small nub for her feet, which I would not have predicted.  Still, she wins, so that way we have at least some drama this episode.  

I’m sure some people want me to talk about Danny calling for Probst during the challenge only to fart, but…  Look, while I give credit to Danny for timing that so well, and to the editing team for cutting it together perfectly, I just don’t like fart jokes.  A good execution does not make up for crude humor.  To each their own, but I thought Kane’s sarcastic “Thanks for getting us all muddy first” line was funnier, personally.  

Targets may need to be switched, but don’t think that Ratu isn’t still on the outs.  Brandon tries to target the down Frannie, and is even confident enough to suggest as much to Soka, but Danny is still on the “Hurt Ratu” train.  A strategy I can’t fault, given that Ratu technically has the most remaining members of any original tribe at this point.  What I CAN fault is the choice of target.  Lauren’s immune, obviously, and given how Jaime vibes with the old Soka (plus has what everyone believes is a real idol), I can see not going for her.  But in the great debate of Brandon vs. Kane, Danny targets… Brandon.  Now, don’t misunderstand, I can see the logic.  Brandon, on paper, is the better challenge competitor, and has even proven able to win challenges outside his natural skill-set, such as in last episode.  But Brandon is also just plain BAD at the strategy game, literally giving his enemy information he doesn’t need to.  That’s the sort of person you want to keep in the game.  The move is doubly-baffling for Danny, who has literally talked about wanting Brandon around as a meat shield.  A perfectly good strategy, thrown out for reasons still unclear.  

Just to be safe, however, Danny wants to play his idol.  Guess it was burning a hole in his pocket.  He tells Heidi this, for reasons still unclear.  I get not wanting to blindside your tribe, but I doubt they’re going to be too pissed at a selfless play like that, and telling people about your idol has the devastating potential of making you a target, hint hint.  

Danny may have reason to fear, however, as while the old Tika does fear Ratu, they fear making enemies even more.  With Frannie now kind of on the outs after Matt’s exit, they discuss just going with the flow to keep their (admittedly valuable) swing position.  Decent enough misdirection, but I’m not buying it.  There’s been too much talk about Ratu being a threat for them not to go that way.  Besides, even if Ratu is pissed at you, unless they’re willing to team up with Soka, they have little choice BUT to work with you moving forward.  Keeping things relatively even keeps your swing position more secure.  

Hearing this, however, Heidi decides to comfort them by… Telling them about Danny’s idol plan.  Again, I can see what she’s going for here: Make them think voting Frannie is not safe.  The flaw in that plan is that it now makes Danny look like a VERY tempting target, and sure enough, they discuss getting Ratu to pull such a move.  Carson does at least inform Danny of the possibility, leading Danny to be mad at Heidi.  Don’t misunderstand, the move from her was not great, and she IS objectively the one that let slip the information.  Danny, I’m afraid I’ll have to disagree on the ultimately blame here, though.  Much as Heidi had little reason to tell about you idol, YOU had little reason to tell HER about your idol.  Ultimately, in my view, this comes back on you.  If you were worried about this happening, best not to talk about the idol in the first place.  

All this does lead Danny to suggest he might play his idol on himself to be safe, misdirection I might actually believe in this case.  Good thing we have SOME mystery here, since this Tribal Council is a snooze fest, largely due to everyone just getting along so well.  With no arguments, and pretty typical strategy, it’s analogy city up in here.  I’ve never been one to subscribe to the “Nice people can’t have compelling conflict” idea that some of the fanbase has, but this season in general, and this episode in particular, is starting to make me see their point.  I like this case, but apart from a bit of humor and general niceness, they’re giving us NOTHING!  The moments just go by as a blur, not standing out in any way, and for a season I’m enjoying overall, that’s just depressing.  

This changes, however, when Danny plays his idol.  Correctly reading the room, he plays it for Frannie, as promised.  Good thing, too, since she actually had the majority of the votes.  The old Tika split their votes, two going to Frannie, one to Brandon, which is presumably how they keep everyone happy, as was their stated goal.  Thus, in a bit of poetic justice, Brandon, who avoided being first voted out by an idol play, now goes out himself due to an idol play.  I am not sorry.  Brandon was not a BAD guy, but he was not good at the game, and never showed us enough layers to be interesting.  

Like I said at the top, the ending of this episode makes all the difference.  It wouldn’t have been “Bad”, just boring, before that idol play.  But the poetry of how it went down really elevates it.  The narrative was simple, but as a result easy to understand.  Things were, perhaps, a mite predictable, but where it went had good thematic parallels to the season.  Parallels that could have easily been missed if they had a dozen different advantages all vying to be played.  Take note, show: When it comes to idols and advantages, less is more.  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Finale: Tubthumping

Yeah, yeah, I know.  Two music references for a title in a row.  But so help me, it was too tempting to resist!  Owen all but directly says “I get knocked down, but I get up again.  You’re never gonna keep me down.” this episode.  Plus, I could point out that pop and show tunes are completely different genres, but that’s just splitting hairs, and not entirely accurate anyway.  Though I’ll agree it IS a little weird that Owen has twice in a row inspired music-based titles.  Wonder what his stance on show tunes is?

Starting off our episode proper, we dive almost immediately to a flashback from the last episode.  Normally I’d begrudge these, but this one I’ll let pass.  Partly because it’s letting us relive an abridged version of Jesse’s move to get out Cody, which is always fun, and partly because it at least ATTEMPTS to give us some context as to how Jesse got Cody to give him the idol back.  Granted, by the show’s logic, it comes down to “I was close with Cody” from Jesse’s point, but it’s something.  Yes, I’m aware that exit interviews make it clear that Jesse concocted a rumor of a third “Knowledge is Power”, which makes a lot more sense.  As I have said before, and will say again, though, I should not have to consult supplemental materials to understand what his happening on the show.  

Remember back in the old days?  When Probst would have to justify at the top of the episode why anyone left could win?  And how cringe that was for the people without an obvious narrative?  Yeah, they kind of bring that back here, and it REALLY doesn’t work.  Granted, it works better than the other times, since this is the PLAYERS making their case, and thus they come across more genuine.  But still, we know some of these people have realistically no chance.  I get that it’s the editor’s job to try and hide it, but sometimes there’s just nothing you can do.  

Still, at least most players have a realistic view of where they are.  Owen admits he’s an underdog.  Gabler talks about laying low until the time is right.  Jesse comments on his big move making his game a visible, winning one, but also making him a threat.  Karla comments on how she’s in trouble and a threat, but acknowledges her determination.  Cassidy talks about always being the alternate, yet usually turning the target around to get votes on her side.  If I were to nitpick, the only real flub is Cassidy saying she has a perfect voting record, when she voted for Ryan at the Jeanine boot, but even that’s splitting hairs.  With the number of split votes these days, I don’t think a “perfect voting record” matters quite as much as the fanbase seems to think it does.  

You may recall that, like with the past two seasons, our final five have to go to a new campsite.  This honestly brings nothing new to the table, and needs to just be dropped, but Gabler will be damned if he doesn’t shill for it.  He goes on at length about how tough it is, and how he needs to find gas in the tank to go forward.  Again, he’s doing his job, but just not buying it.  The only thing of value this new camp brought is a cool-looking Tree Mail.  

Said Tree Mail brings news of, you guessed it, a word scramble to find a clue to the location of an advantage.  Because it’s not like we’ve seen THAT before in the past two seasons.  Everyone wants to make sure Karla doesn’t get it, so naturally, Karla is the first to finish her word scramble.  Her ankle hobbles her, though, and Owen is right on her tail.  this honestly may be the most pathetic performance we’ve seen out of this challenge yet, as these are the only two to finish the word scramble.  That said, Owen misses the “knot” part of the clue indicating a dead tree, though even then, it’s a close race.  Both get to the tree at roughly the same time, Owen maybe even slightly ahead, but Karla searches the correct part of the tree first, finding that she has an advantage at the next challenge.  

Owen takes this well.  And by that I mean he shows that he might benefit from some anger management classes.  Ok, ok, I exaggerate.  He takes it fine, but his anger is still clearly visible.  He chops at a coconut like he’s Rupert on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and the coconut is Jonny Fairplay’s head.  

Our challenge itself is your standard “Obstacle Course Leading to Word Puzzle”, literally nothing worth writing about more than this sentence.  Karla’s advantage is that she gets to skip carrying some of her puzzle pieces over a balance beam, one of the legs of the challenge.  A pretty decent advantage, were the puzzle easier.  As it stands, it mostly just gives Karla some wiggle room, given that this is a very physical challenge, and as she notes, she’s a bit beaten up by this game.  That said, Probst tells her it’s in “How she uses it.”  Um, Probst?  It’s not like Karla has any choice or agency in this advantage.  She gets an edge, but the challenge still comes down to skill.  She doesn’t have a way TO use the advantage, other than the one you provide.  

Still, despite these injuries, Karla performs admirably, advantage or not.  Yes, everyone makes it to the puzzle, but she’s right there with Owen, the most physically fit player left, the entire time, and the challenge is presented as another word battle between the pair of them.  Fittingly, given his earlier frustration, Owen manages to eke out a victory this time.  He also gets a trip to have some good food, choosing to take Cassidy along with him.  Not a bad choice if you want to strategize, though given that you can bet Karla and Cassidy would not talk strategy if left alone together, I would say Gabler might have been a slightly wiser choice.  

It seems Owen wanted to talk strategy with Cassidy in particular, and they engage in the great Jesse vs. Karla debate.  As Jesse noted earlier, the one downside to his Cody blindside last episode is that it made him a visible threat.  Something he needs to be able to argue for a win in the end, but also something that makes people not want to take him to the end.  Karla may be the more long-term threat in terms of her game having been recognized, but Jesse is the rising star, and Owen wants him gone.  Cassidy still has a chip on her shoulder with Karla, though her main argument for why is that with Karla gone, she, Cassidy, retroactively gets credit for moves the pair of them made earlier.  Why this argument is persuasive to Owen, I can’t say, but Owen also has reason to be afraid of Karla, and so they agree to leave Jesse for the next vote.  

That said, part of their justification is that Jesse is easier to beat in challenges than Karla, and the numbers do bear that out.  I just find it hilarious that Jesse’s challenge performance is so pathetic that the woman with MULTIPLE INJURIES is considered more threatening in physical competition than he is.  

Back at camp, our remaining three are also discussing their possibilities.  Karla is pitching hard for a Cassidy boot because, really, what else can she do at this point?  Owen’s immune, and it’s not like going for Jesse or Gabler will be easy with one of them always around.  Jesse at least entertains the idea, since it might help keep the target off his back for another round.  Plus, if Karla is a challenge threat, then the healthier Cassidy is as well.  Gabler is less convinced, wanting to take out a big threat.  

Gabler may have his chance, though, as Karla is really doing this to get out Jesse.  Sort of the same play Cody tried on her as well.  Once everyone else is back, Karla pitches this plan, which Gabler is somewhat more on board with than a Cassidy boot.  Really, Karla does an overall good job here.  She makes a logical argument, hypes up Jesse’s threat level to be above her own.  For all her bad acting, she has a really good pitch.  Owen and Gabler seem to at least be considering it.  Only Cassidy is not swayed, mostly due to the beef the two have had over the past couple episodes, but even then, I think she goes a bit far in saying Karla handled things poorly.  Yeah, Karla kind of threw everything at the wall when talking to Cassidy, hoping for something to stick.  Cassidy says as much herself.  But when you’re target number one, hey, what have you got to lose?  It may seem like I’m damning Karla with faint praise, but even if it was 11 years ago, I still remember “Survivor Redemption Island”, and the frustration of people sitting around, not calling out the obvious.  I will take blunt yet sensible play any day.  

The editors are doing their best to misdirect us, but the overall point is moot.  We, the audience, know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol, and so there’s no way he goes.  Really, Jesse has the power tonight, so the best we can hope for is that he considers voting out Cassidy.  That he does, but it still doesn’t come across as plausible.  Kudos to the editors for trying their best.  I’d say they made this vote about as tense as it could possibly be.  Sometimes, though, there’s just nothing you can do.  

A Live Tribal is a good attempt, though.  After Karla does the sensible thing and hype up Jesse’s threat level some more, Jesse decides to put any doubt about his safety to rest.  He had talked earlier about wanting to use the idol to put him in the best possible position, and that he does by pulling it early to create chaos.  This, naturally, gets a huge reaction from the jury, with Jeanine in particular giving a “shocked” face to rival that of Eliza Orlins (“Survivor Vanuatu”).  But, with a possible big target gone, everyone starts getting up in twos and threes to talk about new targets.  Jesse is willing to go Cassidy, but will need Gabler on board.  We don’t here his reaction, and we go to vote.  

Jesse sensibly plays his idol on himself, leading to an anticlimactic 4-1 boot for Karla.  Yeah, like I said, I can’t blame the editors too much on this one.  They worked with what they had, but it was painfully obvious Karla was going.  Sad, too.  In case it wasn’t obvious from this blog as a whole doing little else but praising Karla this season, you can tell this was going to be a sad one.  Messy, if understandable, plays in the last few episodes definitely make this vote-out EARNED, but I loved her spunk and determination.  She was the type of person you don’t see as often on the show, and it was great to have her.  Karla for Second Chances, y’all!

With no drama from the vote, we cut straight to Final Immunity.  This is the “Maneuver Pots through a Wire Frame, Then Stack Them” challenge first seen on “Survivor One World”, with this iteration less a time trial, and more a “First to 15 Pots Wins”.  Not a bad challenge, and at least one we haven’t seen in a while.  Still, I’m a traditionalist.  Give me pure endurance any day.  

High winds are a major factor here, making stability in your pot tower paramount.  Jesse is naturally out of the running, because this is, well, a challenge, but the other three are all pretty even.  Gabler is actually ahead for a good chunk, but lacks a solid foundation.  In the end, Owen loses his stack, and Cassidy wins, only to have her stack fall seconds after the challenge was called.  Good for her.  

With his threat level so high, it’s public knowledge that Jesse will be going to fire making.  The show TRIES to fake us out by having Jesse play to Cassidy, saying she needs to beat him in fire to have a shot, when really he just wants to go up against the worst fire-maker out there.  So transparent is this play that Cassidy doesn’t even pretend to buy it.  

So open is the knowledge that Jesse will go that both Owen and Gabler advocate for the opportunity to best Jesse, each believing that they are the superior fire-maker, and each wanting to bolster their resume as having “Taken Out” the biggest threat of the season.  Here is an ACTUAL debate for Cassidy, but on the whole, I would say sending Gabler is the better move.  Yeah, yeah, I know what we’re going to see soon, but these were my thoughts at the time.  Gabler’s game resume might be stronger, and thus gaining more clout from besting Jesse more of a threat, but there’s no indication the jury gives Gabler any credit for his moves.  His most visible moves are messy ones, and the jury also clearly likes Owen.  They were certainly happy he, of all people, won the immunity before this.  Thus, Gabler seems to have the weakest case in the eyes of the jury, and thus better to send him.  

After another nothingburger of a Tribal Council, Cassidy does the smart thing, and sends Gabler to fire against Jesse.  We have a really intense competition.  Becky vs. Sundra on “Survivor Cook Islands” this is not.  Both start fire quickly, but Gabler has clearly had more overall practice than Jesse.  Thus, Gabler beats the previous record for winning the challenge (previously held by Chris Underwood on “Survivor Edge of Extinction”) by about a minute.  Impressive.  

Yes, Jesse.  The seeming frontrunner of the season.  Out against people who were at best under edited, and at worst made to look foolish at every opportunity.  And people say the ending of this season is unsatisfying why?

In case it wasn’t clear, I am VERY sorry to see Jesse go, and schmaltzy as it may be, I would say it’s deserved.  Do we need to KEEP hearing about Jesse’s backstory?  Probably not.  Doesn’t change how much the dude has overcome, both in life and the game, and the crazy moves he made, particularly towards the end of the game.  Yes, a Jesse win would have been predictable, but it would have felt earned, which would be a big plus.  Like Karla, I look forward to seeing Jesse on another Second Chance season.  

Our final day breakfast is thankfully overlayed by one thing I’m very happy returned from last season: The Jury Speaks.  Yes, rather than just hear the finalists talk about what they plan to do (which is basically all of them reiterating their talking points from the top of the episode, though again they show good self-knowledge here), we hear from the jury what THEY want to hear from each player.  It’s pretty much what you’d expect.  Owen needs to articulate how he survived despite being the underdog, Gabler needs to own his age and his “playing the middle game”, and Cassidy needs to articulate specifically how she got the target off her in several instances.  

Predictably, we still have the new jury format first introduced on “Survivor Game Changers”.  Equally predictably, I still hate it.  Probst is less insistent on the “game categories” thing, merely mentioning them rather than directing the conversation about what they should be considering, but it’s still too much production interference at the end, and the lack of individual moments make everything less memorable.  

One’s Final Tribal performance may not be enough to sway votes your way, but can certainly lose them.  Such is the case for Owen, who going in seemed to have at least Noelle on his side.  However, he spends most of his time emphasizing how he was on the back foot, and never really had any agency in his game.  Granted, he shouldn’t IGNORE this, lest the jury believe he has no self-awareness, but no need to overemphasize it.  Plus, Owen needed to talk about what he did to SAVE himself as the underdog, not just talk about his general underdog-ness.  

More even are the performances of Cassidy and Gabler.  Gabler is the more engaging of the two, making the jokes and getting the jury to laugh.  He even breaks out the “Alli-Gabler” line once again.  But Cassidy, I feel, articulates her game better.  Gabler does ok, acknowledging that he played the middle, but badly flubs a question about who his tight alliance was with.  Rather than admit he played the middle, or say Owen or someone, Gabler says he was tight with people on the jury, a blatant lie evidence by the fact that Gabler helped put those people on the jury.  Cassidy has her own gaffe, since the jury doesn’t feel she deserves credit for eliminating Ryan, which she feels she does.  Plus, Cassidy managed to point out that she was the last woman standing on a season that favored voting out women early, without sounding too judgmental, which is a tricky task.  She does it well, though.  

Sure enough, we see no Owen votes, meaning he gets shut out.  And given those Final Tribal Council performances, the votes is 8-1… For Gabler…

Ok, we need to talk about this ending, because this is a problem.  First off, kudos to Gabler, though.  He is, as he notes, the second-oldest winner ever, which is no small feat, and should be celebrated.  And as I mentioned last blog, it’s not like Gabler has NO resume to stand on.  That said, the problem is that what was emphasized on his end was messy gameplay, particularly at the first Tribal Council and the merge vote.  His gameplay, while not spectacular or flashy from then on, was solid.  But, in the eyes of the audience, Gabler is kind of a joke  A wild and crazy player.  Someone who is fun to watch, but not to be taken seriously.  As a consequence, it’s hard to take a win from him seriously, especially when the likes of Karla and Jesse are still around in the last episode.  Even Cassidy, under edited as she was, seemed to have more game sense, and therefore make more sense as a winner.  

Now, to be fair to the editors, there’s little they could do about this.  Those gaffes, while making Gabler look bad, are plot-crucial to their episodes, with no easy way to edit them out.  Fair enough.  But then you need to compensate for that.  When asked, the jury said Gabler was charming and articulate, which led to most of them voting for him.  And if so, great!  Makes perfect sense!  But we didn’t SEE that Gabler!  We saw the wild and crazy Gabler, with the only hints to anything more being his vague talk about “Hiding in Plain Sight”.  Again, nice editing trick, but only hints that Gabler WILL win, not WHY.  

I will not deny that this definitely drags the season down, but I wouldn’t quite call it a season-ruiner.  Gabler was at least likable (political views outside the game aside), and this season was not spectacular to begin with.  While confusing, there’s nothing here that’s PAINFUL to watch, so that keeps it out of the very bottom for me.  Still, a lack of big, memorable characters and moments overall (the Cody blindside notwithstanding) mean this season won’t stand out, and a seemingly random winner does it few favors.  It’s a problem of modern “Survivor”… But I’ll talk about that more in an upcoming off-season blog.  

Speaking of blandness, the “reunion”.  Look, I enjoy the show being a bit positive.  I don’t need drama every minute, or over-the-top villains.  But when the ENTIRE reunion show is just about empowerment, it gets old.  Yeah, ok, Gabler giving the money to a charity for veterans is nice.  But did we need Jesse’s backstory again?  Talking about how Noelle and Karla overcame their injuries to compete well?  It’s just too much, and makes me miss the old reunions, awkward audience interviews and all.  

Speaking of which, let’s briefly touch on the preview for next season.  Sort of a hybrid of the preview for this season and older ones.  We once again mostly focus on the new players talking, getting something of a feel for the cast, but in a REALLY old throwback, Probst talks about the harshness of the elements once again.  We see why momentarily, as we get Probst calling in medical at a challenge, implying an early medevac.  Kind of similar to the preview of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, which on the one hand was not a good preview.  On the other hand, “Survivor Kaoh Rong” turned out pretty good in the end, so I’ll hold out hope that “Survivor 44” can be good too.  It’s certainly got a low bar to clear from its immediate predecessor.  

One thing I will say I am loving about “Survivor 44” already is the aesthetic.  They’re going medieval on our ass, which, admittedly, makes almost no sense for a show set in Fiji.  Then again, after three seasons in a row that aesthetically blend together, I will take something that is distinctive if out of place.  I think my two favorites are the dragon snuffer (badass), and the giant spike ball crashing through the logo, which is just my type of over-the-top.  

Now, on to the Idol Speculation tradition of looking back on my cast assessment for this season, and seeing how wrong I was!

Nneka: Overall wrong, though that’ll happen with a LOT of Vesi.  I was really too high on their challenge performance.  I DID say she’d be in trouble if she cost them a challenge, so I had SOMETHING of a decent read on Nneka, but at the end of the day, still overall wrong.  

Noelle: Actually right.  Unremarkable yet threatening player taken out in the mid-merge area.  I’ll take that victory.  

Owen: Wrong.  Had less agency than I thought, but also lasted longer as well.  

Justine: Wrong, though again, that was mostly predicated on the assumption that Vesi would be the dominant tribe of the season.  

Cody: Wrong.  Smarter than I gave him credit for, as well as more entertaining.  Consequently, he lasted longer than I predicted.  

Morriah: She wasn’t my first boot pick, but I did have her pegged as a pre-merger.  I’ll give myself at least partial credit here.  

Sami: Wrong.  Much better at the game than anticipated, and lasted slightly longer than I predicted.  

Karla: Pretty much right, since her tribe didn’t lose as much as I thought they might.  

Ryan: Out earlier than I expected, though I nailed his personality.  

Lindsay: I’ll give myself this one, even if she wasn’t the first boot of the season.  She still went at the first available opportunity, so even if I didn’t read her tribe correctly, I did read her correctly.  

Jeanine: Wrong.  Better (slightly) at the game than I anticipated, and lasted slightly longer too.  

Jesse: So close to being right!  Dude just made himself too big of a threat to give me three correct winner picks in a row.  

Cassidy: Wrong.  By no means annoying, and had a lot more game than I anticipated.  

James: Another one where there’s not much to say, since I just about nailed him.  

Geo: Wrong.  Too much of a challenge sink to make the merge like I thought he would.

Elie: Again I lament: Why must psychologists on this show not named Denise Stapely suck at the game?  Another one I was wrong on.  

Dwight: Wrong.  Worse at the game than I thought, and consequently did not make it deep.  

Mike: Wrong.  No way would I have called this dude winning that early.  

And there you have it.  Weird as this season may be, I hope you have enjoyed my recaps.  Be on the lookout for the rare short off-season content before we discuss the cast of “Survivor 44”.  I’ve got some ideas cooking I think you’ll all enjoy reading/debating.  

As a final note before we go, you may have noticed the liberal sprinkling of “Ancient Voices”, the old theme song for the show, throughout the season.  This finale in particular made liberal use of them.  As an avowed fan of the theme, you may think this makes me happy.  It does not.  Don’t just tease us.  Bring back the full theme, you CBS cowards!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 12: The Book of Sandra

Hello/My name is Diaz-Twine/And I would like to share with you the most amazing book/You snake mother$#%&*!

Yeah, I know the one throwaway comment at Tribal Council has little to do with the episode proper, but I saw an opportunity for a show tunes reference/parody, and it just wouldn’t be “Idol Speculation” if I didn’t seize that opportunity.  

As to the episode proper, given that we had a united vote this past episode, no one has any need to be debriefed.  Instead, they celebrate making it to the top third of the game, watching the sunrise together.  Owen can even be happy he was on the right side of the vote for once!  Being Owen, though, he still finds a way things didn’t go as planned.  Specifically, Sami announcing his Shot in the Dark play spooked Karla enough to vote for him, thus preventing the desired wedge between her and Cassidy.  Owen, however, seeks to fix this, and informs Cassidy of Karla’s intentions.  

Cassidy, being a logical player, does not buy Owen’s story on its face (after all, he’s saying her number one ally turned on her for what seems no reason in her mind), but feels like it’s something she should check out just to be safe.  As such, she confronts Karla on the beach.  The best I can say for Karla here is that she SAYS the right things.  Points out how they’ve been working together from the beginning.  How Owen has every reason to try and split them up.  And when Cassidy says she was hurt, Karla turns the hurt accusation back on Cassidy.  The flaw for Karla, which will be consistent for her throughout the episode, is that her delivery stinks.  She says she’s turning on a “Telenovela” giving us our episode title, and certainly acts like it.  The acting is hammy and over-the-top, such that her story seems much less believable.  I will admit, however, the music is spot on, turning into exactly the sort of hammy soundtrack you would expect from such a scene.  

Still, since as mentioned before, Cassidy should be inclined to believe Karla, she seems to be in the clear.  Her mistake, however, comes when Karla tells Cassidy to ask Jesse if she (Karla) turned on her.  Now, in Karla’s mind, this makes sense.  She and Jesse have been shown to be tight, and so he’s the best person left to back her up, especially since she has the chance to tip him off beforehand.  The flaw in the plan is that Jesse does not truly have her back, and thus tells Cassidy everything.  Now Cassidy and Karla are at each other’s throats, giving us all the scene we were promised in the preview within the first five minutes of the episode.  

Rather than having challenges combined from elements of those in the past, we get straight-up reused challenges this episode.  Weirdly refreshing in its own way.  Our Reward Challenge is a team one (ugh) where two blindfolded players maneuver a ball through a series of obstacles, guided by a third person who has the handicap of riding IN said ball.  You may remember this as the challenge where Russell Swan almost died in “Survivor Samoa”, because heaven knows no one remembers it from when it was on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  A fun enough challenge in its own right, and certainly one that we haven’t seen in a while.  However, I will continue to die on the hills of “No team challenges post-merge.” and “Give us original challenges whenever possible.”

Our blue team consists of a blindfolded Karla and Cody, guided by Owen, while our red team has a blindfolded Gabler and Jesse, guided by Cassidy.  For once, teams that are not evenly stacked.  Blue team is clearly superior.  Sure enough, they win, though a poor performance by them on the table maze at the end of the challenge, coupled with some good editing, make the challenge feel close nonetheless.  

The winning threesome go off to enjoy coffee and pastries.  As this is not a particularly exciting reward, strategy talk begins.  Recognizing that she is the biggest threat, and likely to be targeted, Karla turns up the ham, and the editors turn up the music once again.  Look, spoiling my overall thoughts, this is a GREAT episode, easily a contender for best of the season, but the music deserves special attention.  We get some fun new tracks, both here and at the vote-out, and the editors use them at just the right times with just the right tones.  Props to them! 

Getting back to Karla’s performance, she tries to sell herself as being unfairly persecuted, and denies having the idol.  She then leaves to Owen and Cody can compare notes.  Despite the performance not living up to standards, both buy it.  Now Owen, I can understand.  Doubtless intelligent in real life, the man has had his finger firmly off the pulse of what’s going on for most of this game.  But Cody is supposed to be the super-salesman, who can read and manipulate people without breaking a sweat!  Yet, he firmly believes as well that Karla does not have an idol.  What happened here, man?

Unfortunately for Karla, even when she wins, she loses.  While Owen and Cody believe her, they also take this as a free opportunity to vote her out.  Man, Karla.  I like you.  I really do.  I find your gameplay fun, and for the most part at least competent.  But you’ve been slipping the last few episodes, and REALLY dropped the proverbial ball this time.  

Her lie won’t even last very long, as an embittered Cassidy informs Gabler and Jesse about Karla’s idol back at the camp.  Neither seems particularly surprised, so instead we get another confessional from Gabler about how he’s hiding in plain sight.  All this does is allow Jesse to firmly set Cody straight once everyone is back at camp.  Cody, however, isn’t worried.  He anticipated the possibility that Karla was lying to him, so he’s not hurt, and figures he can play his idol if everything goes wrong.  

This is where the hubris alarms start going off.  If you don’t hear them now, don’t worry.  They’ll get louder very soon.  

Our immunity challenge comes courtesy of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  You may remember this as the “Hanging Bat” challenge, or else the one where hiding your puzzle answers was emphasized.  Seems production did not learn from that, since no one is given the means to hide the combination lock portion of the challenge this time.  We do get a fairly back-and-forth race, where Jesse is in last on the first leg, only to finish the second leg first.  This seems like it would be foreshadowing a Karla comeback, since she struggles the most on the second leg, and does well on the puzzle in the third leg.  However, in addition to the hand injury, and twisting her ankle in this very challenge, Karla’s adrenaline gets to her, and her entire body seizes up in one large cramp.  This gives her closest competition, Cody and Cassidy, and edge, leading to a narrow, but well-earned victory, for Cassidy.  

With their backup to Karla, and therefore person they could split votes on, now immune, our majority needs another plan.  Options are limited, since half the players can now be immune based on common knowledge (remember, people still don’t know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol).  Cody, thereby, comes up with a decent plan to prevent the burning of his idol.  Karla having now come clean to him herself, he suggests the pair openly bluff that they will play their idols to scare everyone into voting for Owen (telling Owen the idea is Gabler, obviously).  Then, they can not play their idols, and all be safe to the end.  A logical plan, with clear upsides for all.  Maybe not ideal, since aside from possibly Gabler (and even that’s a stretch), Owen is the easiest to beat in front of a jury at this point, but it’s hard to fault a plan that lets you keep your up until the last round it can be used.  And as Karla says, everyone falls in line with the plan very easily.  

Or so it would seem!  For you see, Cody, despite his manner of speaking, is NOT a fool!  He does NOT want Karla to go to the end, and DOES want her out tonight!  Thus, the whole plan was a well-played ruse to make Karla feel safe, so that she does not play her idol and can go home.  Frankly, ingenious, and Cody plays it off very well.  See, Karla: THIS is how you pitch yourself!

Ah, but Cody forgets that he needs to keep up the act 100% of the time.  The man just can’t help himself bragging, mostly in confessional, but somewhat to Jesse, about how brilliant his plan is.  He takes out the biggest threat, his stock skyrockets.  No one can question his resume again.  But a la Todd and Jean-Robert on “Survivor China”, this gets Jesse to realize that Cody is more on the ball than he imagined.  This makes Cody a threat in the end, one that Jesse can’t abide.  Not mentioned, but probably on his mind, is that he, Jesse, is the biggest threat left after Karla.  Therefore, keeping Karla in the game helps mask his threat level.  Yeah, MAYBE Jesse has the social capital to turn it around on Cassidy if Karla went tonight, but that’d be a tough sell even in the best of circumstances.  Point being, if you didn’t notice the obvious hubris being set up before, you do now.

Thus, Jesse starts plotting to get Cody out.  Most everyone he talks to is on board (since most of them are vulnerable anyway), and in case they’re hesitant, Jesse points out that Karla’s idol can be burned, so even if she’s not gone, the biggest target becomes vulnerable at the end anyway.  But, what of Cody’s idol?  Word’s gotten around about that as well.  Not to worry, Jesse tells them, HE has Cody’s idol!  This is how he can guarantee Karla playing her own: He plays Cody’s idol, she naturally spooks and plays hers.  Honestly, a very logical plan overall.  What could possibly go wrong?

Idol curiosity, of course!  As in curiosity about the idol.  Karla wants to compare notes on what the idols look like, so Cody needs to get his back from Jesse to show her, in order to keep up the pretense of the fake plan he sold to her.  Jesse, in turns, needs to give Cody back the idol, lest the cover be blown on HIS plan to get rid of Cody.  Naturally, everyone Jesse has pitched this plan to is terrified, but Jesse assures them he can get it back from Cody.  How he plans to do so I can’t say.  With James out of the game, there’s no Knowledge is Power to spook Cody with.  And we probably won’t find out, as now we head off to Tribal Council.  Whether Jesse got it back or not, no way they’re going to tell us now.  They’ll want to keep the suspense going as long as possible.  

Largely due to the lack of forced metaphors, Tribal tonight is actually a pretty enjoyable affair.  Most of the talk centers around idols, with Cody and Karla both coming clean to Probst about them.  Probst asks why, and the pair justifies their strong-arming.  Jesse gets to bring up his social contract again, and how it impacts play style.  Certainly one of the more interesting threads we’ve had in discussions this season.  And, of course, Owen gives me the chance to reference “Book of Mormon” by saying he’s following the “Book of Sandra”.  Gotta love that.  

The editors have done a decent job at giving us mystery tonight, but they can’t stop the hubris.  Jesse’s plan works, with him playing Cody’s idol for Owen.  Honestly a brilliant move.  Builds social capital with Owen, someone who doesn’t have close ties to much of anyone left in the game.  Shows confidence and gamesmanship in front of the jury.  And spooks Karla into playing her idol.  Much as I have ragged on her gameplay this episode, I’m not going to fault Karla for playing that tonight.  True, she didn’t need to by the numbers, and it does show she was still out of the strategic loop.  But as an up-front threat, seeing that the plan is not going how you thought?  Can’t be too cautious, in my opinion.  

Back to Jesse, though.  The one flaw, and it is a minor flaw, that I can find in his plan is that in owning his move in front of the jury, he also burns Cody something fierce.  Now, Cody being Cody, he plays it off like it’s nothing, but beneath the jovial veneer, the man is PISSED!  Gives Jesse the double-middle finger in his exit confessional!  So yeah, that’s one jury vote Jesse is most likely not getting, but given the limited time Cody has on the jury, I doubt it poisons the whole thing against him.  Plus, he has a decent to near-guaranteed shot at most of the other votes.  

As for Cody leaving, I’m not overly sorry to see him go.  The man had more depth than some others I could name, but MAN, I do not jibe with his manner of speaking, and he just didn’t do it for me.  Certainly not over Karla, the other main target.  

Like I said earlier, this is a great episode!  A real return to form for the show!  They may not have had a good mystery, but the plan itself was in some ways so implausible that it still felt tense.  We had a good idea why everyone did what they did, and funny moments and an exceptionally strong score make this an exceptionally strong episode, hopefully leading to an exciting finish!  And thus, now it is time for the season-requisite Ranking of the Finalists, where I talk about who is the biggest threat to win, and go down from there.  

JESSE-Normally, this is where I have to remind people that my rankings are based on “Who wins if they get to the end?” not “How likely is this person to get to the end?”.  For once, this is not the case, as the person I would say has (at least one of the better) shots to get to the end is also the person most likely to win in the end.  Jesse has done a fantastic job creating social bonds with everyone, and manipulating the vote to basically always go the way he wants it.  This might make his game invisible to those at the end, but I don’t think we can say that after his performance tonight.  If they didn’t before, the jury now knows Jesse’s name.  Paradoxically, Jesse is still viewed as less of a threat than Karla, plus he has an idol, guaranteeing him at least a spot at Final Four Firemaking.  Given his perceived lower threat level, plus the aforementioned social bonds, I could easily see Jesse making it to the end, where he easily steamrollers over everyone left, losing possibly just Cody’s vote.  

KARLA-Honestly, Karla has played a very similar game to Jesse, just with less success.  She has the good social bonds, kept an idol relatively secret for a long time, and even has an edge in that she has escaped the proverbial jaws of death several times.  Karla is just less subtle about it, making her more of an overt threat.  Thus, her getting to the end is a bigger obstacle than her winning in the end.  She beats most everyone, save Jesse, given that she has fewer post-merge strategic victories to her name than he does.  But, since everyone is gunning for her at this point, her chances of getting there are slim.  

CASSIDY-Cassidy has honestly played a pretty solid game, and has also survived being the default target a number of times.  The jury won’t forget that, and could reward her for it.  Really, the issue for Cassidy is that her game might be TOO subtle, and she’ll need to articulate herself well to the jurying order to have a shot.  She can definitely do it, but she’ll need to bring her “A” game in the end.  

GABLER-Despite what his placement on this list might indicate, Gabler is not out of it when he gets to the end.  He has had his messy moments, to be sure, but he has had his good subtle gameplay moments as well.  Lest we forget from all his confessionals about “Hiding in plain sight”.  If he can articulate that well to the jury, he might have a shot.  Really, the biggest pitfall for Gabler is that he’s oddly kind of in the same position as Xander on “Survivor 41”: It’s less that he DOESN’T have an argument to win the game, but that the jury’s perception of him may not allow them to HEAR that argument, even if he makes it well.  

OWEN-God bless Owen.  The dude has been trying this entire season, but just cannot get traction to save his life.  He seems to be pretty well-liked, and that’s not nothing, but for a game like Owen’s where he has had no real agency for a good chunk of the time, he needs to be up against other people the jury just HATES, and there’s no one like that this season.  Really, the only thing that I would say gives Owen a shot to win is the universe is secretly a big “Total Drama Island” fan, and wants symmetry there.  

And there you have my rankings.  This year, however, I’m feeling confident, so I will go one step further, and paint how the finale will go in broad strokes.  With all the talk of Karla’s body failing her that didn’t pay off much in this episode, coupled with the fact that she seems set up as Jesse’s rival, the last obstacle he must overcome for victory, Karla wins immunity at 5.  Jesse is naturally also immune at 5 because of Jeanine’s idol.  Thus, Cassidy the default boot goes here.  Owen wins and 4, takes Jesse to the end due to Jesse playing the idol for him this episode, and sends Gabler and Karla to fire, where Gabler wins.  A better outdoorsman, and Karla’s body gives out finally.  Jesse wins in the finals, but Gabler picks up a couple of votes, or at least Cody’s.  

Will we marvel at my predictive powers, or mock them?  Find out in the finale next week!

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 11: Nothingburger

I’ll admit, I’ve gone fairly esoteric with a lot of the blog titles this season.  Stuff that requires explanation in the opening paragraph to make sense.  But I think this title probably stands on its own, and requires no explanation.  As such, I find myself with a lot of free space.  Space probably best filled with another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Pretty minor one this time, but a missed joke opportunity still counts.  Prior to the immunity challenge last episode, I failed to mention a brief exchange wherein Karla complimented Jeff’s black shirt.  Jeff played it up, and proceeded to talk back a bit, bordering on flirting.  Now, if we’re being real, this was just some witty show banter.  A friendly ribbing, nothing more.  Yet, snarky blogger that I am, I must play it up as though it were more serious.  Don’t flirt with Karla, Probst.  A, you’re married, B, Karla’s married, and C, Karla doesn’t swing that way anyway.  

Diving into ACTUAL content, we have our fallout from Tribal Council, and unsurprisingly, Sami is the one driving it, given that he was left out of the last vote.  As he notes, this is unusual for him.  To his credit, I will say that Sami has the correct attitude about being left out.  He rightly acknowledges it’s an issue, and he needs to do work to correct it.  

The flaw for Sami is that he’s terrible at correcting it.  The stray Karla vote is at the top of everyone’s minds, particularly Karla, and they want to know who did it.  Rather than try and pin it on Noelle, who isn’t there to defend herself, Sami tries to pin it on Gabler.  If he needs to pin it on someone still in the game, Gabler is probably the best choice (Cassidy, Jesse, or Cody are implausible, and Sami probably still wants to be good with Owen), but no one buys it.  Sami insists it’s Gabler for a bit, before realizing this is a losing avenue, and so just comes clean to everyone.  Congratulations, Sami!  You’ve now proven you can’t be trusted, and don’t even get the brownie points of owning your mistake!

Sami is not the only one having a bad day, however.  Gabler talks to Owen about a way to get both of them to the end, but Owen is too busy having a pity party to notice.  He laments that he hasn’t voted correctly since the merge, which I have to point out is SLIGHTLY incorrect on his part.  He did vote correctly on the Jeanine boot, though I can still sympathize as people TRIED to leave him out of that one.  Owen compares himself to Charlie Brown, eternally getting the football pulled away from him.  Owen evidently fails to remember that Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) has already claimed the title of this show’s Charlie Brown.  Given some of the things Spencer has said post-appearance however… Yeah, I’d much rather Owen be the remembered one as well.  

Morning comes, and we see why Sami’s letter from home was not highlighted last episode.  They were saving it for here!  Doesn’t excuse not highlighting Noelle’s, but hey, it’s something.  Sami uses his letter for inspiration to keep fighting, and talks about the bond he has with his family, complete with adorable pictures of him with them.  Cute and all, but this works about as well as Xander’s flashback in the finale of “Survivor 41”: Trying too hard.  

Cheesy as it is, Sami’s prayers get answered when Karla still deigns to talk strategy with him.  He puts a bug in her ear about Cassidy spilling the news about her idol.  How does Cassidy know about the idol?  Karla told her, of course!  Quite a while ago, if the flashback is to be believed!  Gee, I can totally see why that bit of information was left on the cutting-room floor until now!  Not like it was IMPORTANT to understand the strategy or anything!  In any case, Karla does get a bit paranoid about Cassidy saying something she shouldn’t.  The pair talk, and appear to be good for now, but Karla admits it may be time to cut Cassidy.  

The best I can say for this idea is that Karla is right that for her game, Cassidy will need to go at some point.  As long as both are in the game, they’ll be seen as a pair, and keep being targeted.  Plus, Cassidy can then steal credit for some of Karla’s ideas.  But the fact is, time is nigh to move against the pair of Jesse/Cody.  They have two idols (though admittedly they only know about one), and have yet to be targeted, despite being as threatening a pair as Cassidy/Karla.  Time is running out before they just get a free pass to the finals.  Strike while you can, because you may not get another chance.  

Say what you will about this season, but the players on this cast are really nice.  Look, they’re all enjoying a quiet moment watching the sun rise!  Of course, such mushiness makes the producers gag, so they throw yet ANOTHER advantage into the mix.  In this case, there’s a note delivered by boat that basically says “There’s an advantage in the jungle, go find it.” and everyone takes off running.  Credit where it’s due, the producers actually take the time to HIDE this one decently well.  Yeah, it’s still in a tree, but it’s a NORMAL-LOOKING tree, not a distinctive one.  Further, the color of the wrapping matches the tree bark pretty closely, and the green logo could easily be mistaken for lichen at a distance.  Up close, yeah, it sticks out, but if someone was just running past, I can’t blame people for missing it.  Plus, it leads to a hilarious montage of people passing right by it without realizing.  

In the end, it is a casual glance from Cody while talking with Gabler that finds the advantage.  Cody puts on a good poker face, casually brings his hand up the tree, and manages to get away without being caught.  The advantage itself is actually pretty good overall.  Basically, Cody is informed that the next immunity challenge will the one where everyone lies under a metal grate in the ocean while the tide comes in.  Cody is allowed to bet on a winner, and if he guesses right, he gets immunity as well.  Oddly, no consequence in the event he guesses wrong.  Guess we’re just throwing out that part of the new era now?  

In concept, this is a great advantage.  It relies on people having a solid understanding of each person’s strengths, while not being game-breaking should someone be good at this particular task.  That said, there’s a couple of tweaks that it could use, as right now it’s still a LITTLE too powerful.  One of those tweaks actually happens immediately, and is more a problem for the audience than for the advantage itself.  We get to see who Cody wrote down.  He chooses Owen, which I can’t fault, but I don’t feel we should have seen him write the name down.  

The reason why becomes clear once we get to the challenge.  Cody is forced to hand the advantage over to Probst, who explains that who Cody bet on will be revealed after the votes are cast, but before they’re read.  This is the element that makes this advantage a little too powerful, at least for me.  It effectively gives the finder immunity, if no one knows whether they bet correctly or not.  Most sensible players will just avoid that person on principle, meaning Cody is for all intents and purposes immune no matter what.  It still requires effort to maintain the bluff, I suppose, but it doesn’t seem like that much effort in the aggregate.  This is also why we saw who Cody wrote down.  He was never going to be targeted with the way this advantage played out, so might as well let the audience in on his thoughts.  But for me, it would have been more fun to keep Cody’s status a mystery, along with the audience.  Let us find out with the players if Cody is safe or not.  A red herring, sure, but a fun red herring.  

Before finding out if Cody bet correctly, let us take a moment to discuss the challenge.  As Probst says, in one of his rare JUSTIFIED moments of hyperbole, this challenge is a fan-favorite.  Comes from a beloved season, can be psychologically scarring, what’s not to love?  And I will say, it makes a nice change of pace from the usual endurance challenge.  Sadly, I must give a dissenting opinion, as this challenge has never really done it for me.  I think this issue is that I’m someone who’s very comfortable in the water, and got used to getting dunked against my will when playing with my father in the pool.  Thus, keeping calm when water flows over your head doesn’t seem all that bothersome to me.  

Regarding the actual run of the challenge, we get to see some really creative strategies this time.  Cassidy in particular deserves a shout-out for trying to shove her entire body through the grate!  In the end, however, both Owen and Karla keep so calm that the tide actually starts receding again!  You may remember that this challenge originally comes from “Survivor Palau”.  You may also remember that the final immunity challenge that season lasted nearly twelve hours, far longer than production planned.  

Yeah, those days are gone.  Probst calls the challenge there, awarding both immunity.  Cheap!  Ok, ok, if I’m going to be fair, it kind of makes sense, given the show would need to wait for the tide to come in AGAIN, for what might just be the same outcome over and over.  They do have a schedule to keep.  Can’t call it the toughest iteration of the show if you’re gonna cop out like this though.  

So yeah, Cody’s immune.  Karla and Owen are immune.  There are three idols left in the game.  We have the potential for yet ANOTHER Advantagegeddon this episode.  Because that’s definitely what the viewing public want.  

Thankfully these people seem unlikely to play their idols, and thus the targeting begins.  Cassidy is upset at trying yet failing in the challenge, but Owen comforts her with a target on Sami.  Most people seem on board with this, but Karla, paranoid about knowledge of her idol being spread, still wants to go for Cassidy.  Most other people are initially for this, but then Jesse thinks “Hey, what if we DID go for Sami.”  And, messy as he plays, it kind of makes sense.  While we the audience see Sami as a messy player, he does give a good performance in front of the jury.  You’ll not the nods and words of assent basically every time Sami opens his mouth at this Tribal Council.  Even those times where he’s putting his foot in it, he’s getting love from the jury.  Plus, as Jesse notes, Karla will likely vote Cassidy, driving a rift between them.  This sort of argument takes attention off himself and Cody, which can only be good for him.  Cody isn’t entirely convinced, but yeah, of the choices presented, Sami is clearly the superior boot.  We can only hope that Karla sees it to avoid proverbially shooting herself in the foot.  

As is the norm this season, Tribal is a bland, uninteresting affair, save for one more bit of messy gameplay from Sami.  He had talked about using his Shot in the Dark just to be safe.  This in and of itself I have no fault with.  Either people are telling Sami the truth, and his vote doesn’t matter, in which case he loses almost nothing, or people are lying to Sami, and he may as well make the one remaining move he has to protect himself.  What I CAN fault him for is announcing this intention at Tribal Council.  Sami, have you never heard of a poker face?  Keeping things close to your chest?  Alerting people to your plans is the way your plans go awry!

The only way this makes sense is if Sami was going for a bluff; not actually intending to play said Shot in the Dark.  For a moment, when we see him make a big gesture in the voting booth, but not actually play the thing, it seems like this might be the route he’s going.  But no, he played it.  And to no affect, either.  Whoopee.  I don’t hate the Shot in the Dark for what it is, but it has been ineffectual at best every time it comes up.  

Sami did need to play it, however, as he was going home.  Karla even came to her senses and voted him out, thus avoiding the pitfall set up by Jesse.  I can’t say I’m too sorry to see him go.  His gameplay was not the worst, but like I said, messy.  I also grew tired of him constantly talking about his age.  While by no means the nadir of characters, even on this season alone, there just wasn’t much more to him that we didn’t already see.  Not to rag on the guy too much, though.  He goes out with a lot of class, congratulating everyone and inviting them to visit him in Vegas.  Maybe not the best player, but definitely a good dude overall.  

Frankly, the title of this blog tells you my thoughts on the episode.  Nothing egregiously bad happens.  Hell, I even enjoyed the twist they introduced, even if it does need a few tweaks.  But man, they had nothing to work with.  An obvious boot, little to no strategy advancement, and now it even seems like an obvious outcome.  With his two idols, Jesse, I would argue the biggest jury threat, now has a free pass to the final four.  True, he could still lose fire-making, but I don’t see that happening.  There are worlds where Jesse doesn’t win, but for those, he needed to be voted out, or at least weakened, by now.  Jesse has played a good game, and it would make this blog 3 for 3 in the new era for winner picks, but man, it would be so predictable, a lot of the fun would be gone.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.