Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 6: Wasted Potential

Look, not every title is a clever pun or reference.  Sometimes one’s disappointment in how something could have gone, versus how it went, just overwhelms everything.  Now luckily for us, this is gotten out of the way fairly quickly, but we won’t be getting into it right off the bat.  Yes, it’s time once again for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

We have a themed pair of mistakes from the last blog, and that theme is “Presenting the evidence with no thesis.”  Twice last episode I described what happened without giving my overall thoughts on it.  First and foremost, I talked about how Jeanine got the beads for her idol, but how was her performance in getting the beads overall?  Probably the weakest of the three we’ve seen this season, but that’s really more a testament to how well Karla and especially Cody did at acquiring the beads than any knock against Jeanine.  Jeanine was forced by circumstance into letting most people know what she was doing rather than give some cover story.  Gabler was the only exception, and she seemed to manipulate Gabler well, but it does mean more people know about her idol than either Vesi (where only Jesse knows who’s left) or Coco (where no one knows but the holder), which, by default, makes her performance the worst.  

I also failed to give my thoughts on the episode overall, which were effectively “Meh, it was ok”.  Hot take, I know.  Might explain why I forgot to say anything.  The strategy was adequate and logical, the misdirection was fine, and there were one or two entertaining moments.  This puts it on the “good” side of the spectrum, but nothing exciting or worth writing home about.  Though honestly, that could sum up modern “Survivor” pretty well.  

Moving on to the current episode, given that Ryan was CLEARLY blindsided last episode, surely we get his reaction.  It either has great comedic/dramatic potential, or showcases how great of a player he is.  Given his track record, I’m guessing it was the former.  To be fair, Ryan will declare himself a “free agent” shortly, so at least we know for certain where his head’s at, but still, I feel like we missed good comedy and/or drama potential.  

I’m GUESSING as to Ryan’s reaction because we cut straight to the next morning, and an admittedly fun reaction from James getting something called “Tree Mail”.  What that is, I can’t say.  Never seen anything like that on the show before.  Seems fun, though.  They should do it more often.    

This particular Tree Mail tells Coco to gather their things in 10 minutes, and prepare to head to their “New Home”.  Pretty much everyone talks about how excited they are to make the merge, but I’m not buying it.  The wording doesn’t say “Merge”, it says “New Home”.  As “Survivor Thailand” demonstrated, these fine distinctions matter.  Yet, not a single person on Coco questions anything, and just jumps to the “Merge” conclusion.  Even Karla, ever the skeptic, only says that merges in the modern era are “Crazy”.  Still, at least she questions SOMETHING!  Vesi goes full-throttle into the merge conclusion.  

And this, right here, is the big disappointment of the episode.  With the emphasis on the wording, and how certain everyone was, I thought FOR SURE we were set up for a fakeout.  Didn’t even have to be the “Survivor Thailand” full on fake merge.  Could have been a full-tribe summit before a swap or something.  Or hell, maybe a new, ORIGINAL twist.  But no, everyone is right, it’s just the merge.  How predictable.  The potential is wasted, and everything returns to being boring.  

Oh well.  Returning to what we actually get, everyone is getting together at Dumbass Tribe camp, which makes sense.  They have a plurality, after all, and won the biggest rewards.  Thus, they probably have the best camp, and if there is to be a merge, makes sense for it to happen there.  Everyone is happy and hunky-dory, the stuff you expect from a merge, but of course, strategy is nigh.  Noelle talks about Cody taking everyone’s beads on Vesi to make a hat.  In the presence of Elie.  Who knows all about the bead thing.  She confers with Jeanine and then Owen.  The latter, in a fairly funny moment, talks about wanting chyrons explaining who has what, noting that his would say he doesn’t have anything.  That said, as Owen lays out who has what, chyrons depicting this appear on the screen, both spelling things out for the audience, and making for a very funny editing moment.  

This is the highlight of the episode.  I’m not kidding.  

Owen may be the one spelling out who has what, but it’s Elie who dictates how this affects the strategy of the season.  Dumbass and Vesi may have been helping each other out to weaken Coco, but now with them weakened, will it hold to the merge?  Yes, Elie tells us.  While Coco may have been weakened, they’re also the only unknown in terms of advantages.  Everyone has correctly deduced that SOMEONE on Coco probably has their idol (though how hilarious would it be if no one had found the Beware Advantage?), but no one knows who.  Good for Karla overall, but bad for making people want to work with you.  After all, this is an unknown, and as I’ve said before, unknowns in the game of “Survivor” are a problem.  Hence, Elie reaffirms the Dumbass/Vesi commitment, which I can’t fault the reasoning for.  

If not some exciting, new twist, what was the vague language in Tree Mail about?  Why, the new way to “Earn the Merge”, of course!  And by “New Way”, I of course mean “The same thing, but without the stupid hourglass twist.”  Don’t get me wrong, the lack of hourglass twist is a MAJOR improvement, but still, doesn’t feel like it shook things up nearly enough.  Now, if Applebee’s had sponsored the feast, maybe we’d be on to something…  

You know the drill by now: Divided into two even teams, winner gets buffs (in a lovely teal color this season) and merge feast, along with immunity, losers get none.  Same deal as before.  Only difference is that the one person not randomly sent to either team needs something to do.  In this case, it’s the tried and true “Tie your fate to one team” twist.  Our sit-out picks a team before the challenge.  They win, they share the reward and immunity  They lose, they share in that as well.  Fair, but again, boring.  Really, the best thing to come out of this is that Noelle is the one who draws the “No Team” rock, meaning we get her fantastic reactions on the sit-out bench once again.  

Our teams themselves are decently even, with blue consisting of Ryan, Karla, Gabler, Jeanine, Dwight, and Jesse, while red gets Cody, Sami, Elie, Owen, James, and Cassidy.  More even than we’ve seen the past few times this twist has come up, though I still give the edge to red.  Blue only got one particular challenge beast (Ryan) to red’s two (Sami and Cody), while also getting arguably the two biggest challenge sinks in Karla and Gabler.  Still, it’s even enough that I can’t fault Noelle for picking to back blue.  Not unreasonable that they could win, and her closest ally Dwight is there.  Best to make your bed with your alliance where possible.  

You’ll notice I haven’t discussed the challenge yet.  That’s because it’s kind of forgettable.  Decently-sized obstacle course, but few elements stand out.  The best part was dragging crates (to form the six crate stair fist seen on “Survivor Tocantins”) on a sled, since that required the tribes to criss-cross, which is always a fun visual.  The honeycomb word puzzle was also nice, though again, the phrases are getting too esoteric.  Yes, I know the show talked about “Earning” things, but the specific phrase used here, “Earning your spot at every stage.”, is a bit much.  

Lackluster as the challenge may be, Noelle’s reactions continue not to disappoint.  Blue has an early lead, but then falters, leading to that delicious over-the-top Noelle frustration.  I grow terrified when it seems like Karla has broken her hand when a crate slams into it, as I don’t want my favorite of the season evacuated.  Thankfully we see it bandaged later without medical being called, so I assume it’s all right.  Things are ultimately all right for Noelle as well.  Despite the teams seeming relatively even in terms of puzzle strength, red chokes, and despite getting up later than them, blue solves it first, winning “The merge”, I suppose.  I’m mostly just happy Karla is immune, and still in the game.  

We start with the down-and-out, aka those without immunity.  Naturally, it doesn’t take long before scrambling starts, with James asking Cody to go for a one-on-one chat.  An oddly blatant move for an otherwise subtle player (in terms of gameplay, not in terms of reactions, as we’ll soon see), and one that seems costly to him.  Elie uses this as a pretext to put the target on James.  She was probably going to do so anyway, since she wants someone from Coco gone, but James is honestly a good target.  Smart, and getting rid of him breaks up the tightest pairing there, the one that could keep the tribe together.  Karla being double-immune leaves her off the table, so James it is  Not knowing where the idol is, Elie wants to split the votes.  Normally I would agree with this, but the numbers just don’t pan out for Elie’s side.  The problem is that both Jeanine and Jesse have lost their votes, meaning your total is now up 7-4 over the old Coco, assuming you stay united.  Split in half, that’s 4-3.  Make the wrong call, and Coco’s 4 is enough.  My only guess as to why Elie wouldn’t think of this issue is if Jesse had kept the fact that he lost his vote hidden, but given that he told all of Vesi, I have to assume it leaked out.  Usually a sensible call for Elie, but again, numbers just don’t bear it out here.  

Over at the feast, everyone is once again having a jolly good time.  As Karla the realist reminds us, though, it can’t last.  Oddly it isn’t she who bursts everyone’s bubble with strategy talk, but Ryan, who proposes that these seven form an alliance.  They could be top seven after all.  With all immune, they’d be guaranteed numbers.  A blatantly obvious move, and Ryan pitches it poorly.  That said, I have to dock everyone else points for not even pretending to go along with it.  Look, I know it wasn’t a good pitch, and few, if any, of you have reason to go along with it, but that’s the song and dance of “Survivor”.  You at least PRETEND to entertain all options.  

Ryan’s poor pitch seems to shut everyone down from any strategy talk.  Everyone, that is, except Gabler.  Gabler makes it clear, in no uncertain terms, that Elie is against him, and he is ready and willing to vote her out.  Jeanine, understandably, is a bit upset at this blatant and sloppy play, not least because it targets her closest ally.  That said, I do think Jeanine underestimates Gabler a bit.  Is he God’s gift to strategy?  No, but he’s not a moron, either.  The running theme when it comes to the women of Dumbass Tribe and Gabler is that Gabler is constantly underestimated.  Doubtless, Gabler had some justification besides declaring his strategy in the open for saying what he said.  Perhaps he’s working to create a false lead for Coco, to prevent an idol play?  Maybe he’s telling the truth about his wants, but meaning it more to plan a seed for the future.  He could be…

CRASH!

ME: Yeah, it’s about that time of the season, isn’t it?

GABLER: I threw Elie’s name out there because I want Elie gone!

ME: Kind of obvious, my dude.

GABLER: Just wanted to make that clear.

ME: Funny confessional and all, but did you really have to come all the way across the country just to tell me what I could see on my tv screen?

GABLER: I live in Idaho.  We take any excuse to leave that we can.  

ME: Valid.  Here’s another excuse to stay out longer: My wall needs repairing.  There’s a Gabler-sized hole in it.  

GABLER: On it!

If Gabler’s confessional was not enough, word soon gets back to Elie about what Gabler did.  With so few people vulnerable, Elie understandably freaks out.  Gabler makes the perfectly fair point that Elie betrayed him first, which Elie denies.  Gabler doesn’t buy it, so when Elie tries to get him to unite behind the plan to oust James, Gabler is not on board.  So much for you being able to read Gabler and manipulate him, huh, Elie?  

Elie talks about wanting a new target, but doesn’t really have anyone available who’s not on her tribe  She may not need to provide one, however, as both Owen and Sami are pissed at Gabler, and rightfully so.  Gabler screwing up Elie’s plan is one thing, but now even the people willing to work with him are tired of him.  If Gabler weren’t immune, he’d be a logical choice.  As it stands, Elie’s paranoia is getting to Sami and Owen, and they suggest perhaps just letting Gabler have his way and voting her out.  Even Jesse starts to have second thoughts about working with Elie.  Jeanine, however, is determined to get things back on track.  She plays the diplomat, since Gabler is less likely to stonewall her, and tries to swing the vote back to James.  Sami and Owen seem placated, but the plan has two problems.  The first problem is Gabler, who tells us in no uncertain terms that he’s insisting Elie go that night.  The other problem is Ryan, who happened to overhear some of Gabler and Jeanine’s conversation.  Free agent he may be, but he doesn’t seem so burned by his tribe that he won’t do them a solid.  He warns James that he’s being targeted, but also lets them know Gabler intends to vote Elie.  Since Coco can do basic math, they realize that voting Elie means they’re all but guaranteed to stay, unless everyone else unites against a single target.  

A smart move for Coco, but what about the rest?  All else being equal, I’m inclined to say they should stick with the James vote.  If Gabler were vulnerable, I could understand breaking the supermajority.  He’s proven to be a sloppy enough player to be a liability.  Elie, while paranoid, has not, and as I say, the James/Karla duo need to be broken up, if you want to truly make sure Coco is a non-factor post-merge.  Honestly, the best argument for voting out Elie is the one I made earlier about numbers.  They don’t have the numbers to safely split the vote, particularly now with Coco aware of where Gabler’s vote is going, so they would have to unite against James.  With no knowledge of where the idol could be, this is a risky proposition, and so I can see the logic of voting out Elie there.  That said, doing so would kill pretty much any chance of the supermajority surviving, so on the whole, if you can get out James, I say do it.  

Our only remaining bit of misdirection is Jeanine offering to play her idol for Elie.  Despite what I just said about James being the better boot, this would be a TERRIBLE move on Jeanine’s part.  Apart from losing immunity, purely for an ally who is doing a decent amount of harm to your coalition by her (justified) paranoia, Jeanine has no real need of Elie anymore.  The alliances are in place, and Jeanine has shown herself to be a good enough diplomat to keep everything together.  Plus, with no Elie to contradict her, Jeanine gets to take credit for masterminding any moves from the alliance at the end.  Using her idol on Elie even to get out James, would be a needless waste.  

You want to know a big problem with 13-person Tribal Councils?  Everything gets lost in the shuffle, particularly when everyone’s being super-secretive like tonight!  Nothing particularly bad happens, but Tribal just goes by in a haze of double-speak, with nothing particularly standing out.  

No, the vote is the main event, yet we only see one vote being written down.  It’s James, naturally voting for Elie.  I’m good with misdirection and all, but Gabler LITERALLY TOLD US the name he would be writing down, even AFTER Jeanine supposedly brought him back into the fold.  I’d bet his voting confessional was great as well, so it’s a shame we didn’t get to hear it  

Everyone holds fast to their idols and advantages, which I can’t fault them for.  In arguably the most memorable part of Tribal Council, James gives over-the-top pained reactions to every vote against him, and I kind of love it.  It even seems believable, as he’s the first name to double-up after Elie, Owen, and Cassidy each receive one vote.  Those two votes are all he gets, and everyone dogpiles on Elie.  As I’ve said, not the smartest move, but I can see where they were coming from.  Gabler being immune left them with few options overall.  Elie leaving is a mixed bag for me.  She was a big character, and I always want to support a fellow psychology peep.  That said, her boot was definitely earned, and I feel like we got what we needed from her story at this point.  Better her than James, but I do wish someone like Cody or Sami, whose archetype I just don’t care for that much, had been targeted instead.  

But let’s talk about those votes for a second.  The votes for James, Elie and Owen, need no explanation.  Elie was the majority, so that’s been discussed.  But what of our random stray votes.  Well, our Cassidy vote comes courtesy of Noelle, which when thought about, kind of makes sense.  When splitting the vote was the plan, the idea was “Dumbass on James, Vesi on Cassidy”.  Thus, Noelle could be seen holding to that.  Alternatively, Noelle wanted a Coco member to go, but thought she could use James because of their journey back in Episode 3, and so preferred Cassidy as an option.  Either way, seems like Noelle’s not that interested in working with Coco overall.  The stray Owen vote, however, still defies explanation.  It comes from Karla, who to me has little to no reason to vote for this guy.  My best guess is that she was concerned about Elie having an idol or a successful Shot-In-The-Dark, and didn’t realize Owen would vote James as well.  Still, even that seems a stretch, especially since there’s no guarantee James wouldn’t get piled on on the re-vote.  As such, I remain overall stumped by this move.  

While this episode just barely edges out of “Bad” territory, mostly due to some funny reaction shots, editing gags, and avoiding the Hourglass Twist like the plague, it’s still pretty weak.  13 people is too much for only an hour merge, the misdirection was weak, and there’s overall just not anything exciting to talk about.  When it seemed like they were building up to something better, only to give us the same-old, same-old, well, that just leaves a bad taste in one’s mouth.  

Why must every psychologist on this show other than Denise Stapley (“Survivor Philippines”) place poorly?

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.