Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 4: Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Honestly, I feel bad for the guys of “Whose Line?” that I’m now associating them with this episode.  Corny as improv might be at times, these guys are professionals who pull it off well.  The acting talent this episode PALES in comparison to what they have.  Then again, the acting talent this episode pales in comparison to beige pants, so it’s not exactly a high bar.  

What is a high bar, it seems, is me getting through a blog unscathed.  Yes, it is time once again for me to pull out that old chestnut…

MATT’S MESS=UP!

Again, really minor one here, but when talking about Jaime last episode, I referred to her as “Plant Mommy”.  In actuality, she and her necklace both refer to her as “Plant Lady”.  I’m inclined to give myself a pass on this once, since they are very similar names, and I believe Matthew even calls her “Plant Mommy” at one point, but still technically incorrect on that one.  The best kind of incorrect.  

With a unified vote last episode, we skip any potential drama on Soka and move on to their morning routine, which seems to involve meditating at sunrise.  Somewhere, Coach (“Survivor Tocantins”) just got a huge grin, and doesn’t know why.  Meditation bring introspection, though.  Josh looks inside himself, and decides that he’s got it made.  He’s in between two twosomes as the swing vote on a strong tribe likely to go into the merge with some numbers.  I’m normally against such confidence on “Survivor”, but based on what we’ve seen up to this point, the man is correct in his assessment.  I’m sure this is in NO WAY setting up an ironic change of fortune for Josh.  

Actually, his turnaround happens in record time.  No sooner has Josh said that he’s the swing vote than we see a discussion between the remaining four about how they want Josh out next.  Danny thinks that strong twosomes are the way to go, and as he and Heidi are the closest pair outside of Matt and Frannie, is keen to ally with them.  I’ll admit I would more favor having a strong threesome to go to the end with, but it’s still relatively early days game-wise, and I’ve heard of worse strategies.  Not a good look for Josh that he’s unaware of this, though.  

Where we do get our drama for the evening is Tika.  You see, there is now a red “X” made of sticks stuck through the bars of the birdcage.  Everyone concludes this means something has been hidden related to the birdcage, with the red “X” being a clue to its location.  A logical conclusion, though Yam Yam is surprised, since the tribe had concluded, for some reason, that there was no way to open the birdcage.  Why he would think the show would put something on the island just to mess with people’s heads, when they could be adding ANOTHER advantage to the game, I don’t know.  

We quickly learn what we all suspected: Carolyn is the culprit of the red “X”.  Whenever anything random happens on this tribe, assume Carolyn is somehow responsible.  Carolyn does clue us in on the method to her madness this time, though.  She wants the fake idol found, so she hides it in their log bench near the fire, putting another pair of red sticks in an “X” beneath it to help indicate its location.  

What?  You’re expecting mockery here?  Look, Carolyn can be a LOT, to put it mildly, but credit where it’s due, this is a good plan on her part.  Feels like something the show would do, the hiding place is logical without being too obvious, and it can give someone a false sense of security despite the lack of real power.  Given the tools available to her, I’m not sure she could have done better.  About the only more skillful play is Sarah managing to pick it up along with her laundry while everyone else is around the fire, and given that Sarah has gotten basically nothing, I’m still giving the point to Carolyn overall.  

That said, we DO see there’s a note along with the fake idol, basically the instructions for the real idol.  This bothers me, and gives me the chance to talk about my feelings about the fake idol being included with a real one in the birdcage.  Let me state up front that I do like some aspects of this twist.  Specifically, I like that one tribe’s fake idol is another tribe’s real idol.  It’s something that could conceivably be figured out by the players, rewarding critical thinking, but could also lead to epic misreads if you think someone doesn’t have a real idol, which has the potential for hilarious tv.  

No, the issue that I have now I’ve had time to think about it is that there’s no real way for the second finder to find out that their fake idol ISN’T real without playing it.  When a fake idol is made by a player, even if hidden with a note, that player still has the possibility to notice that it’s a fake based on how it’s made.  Easier or harder to do, and often players will play it anyway on the off-chance it’s an idol no matter how fake (see Ozzy’s stick with a face on “Survivor Micronesia” for the most famous example of this), but there is at least a chance.  But when you get something made by production, with a note from production saying it’s an idol, what’s the difference between the fake idol and the real one?  Only an arbitrary distinction made by production, that’s way.  Maybe include a fake idol making KIT in the birdcage moving forward, if it sticks around, but not just a pre-made fake with no distinction between fakes and reals.  

Wait, what’s this?  A CHALLENGE!  Just for REWARD!  In the PRE-MERGE of the new era?  Surely you jest!

No, it’s real, and unfortunately for Tika, it involves zero puzzles.  Instead it’s the “Climb a large structure and shoot sandbags at a target; first team to hit five wins” challenge, most memorable for its appearance on “Survivor Cambodia”, where Stephen Fishbach managed to hit another tribe’s target on his go.  It is different enough from the usual “obstacle course/puzzle” combo we usually get these days that I don’t hate it, but again, would prefer original challenges period.  

Reward in this case is a tarp, with second place getting a smaller one.  The winning tribe will also get to select one member from each tribe including their own to go on a “Journey”.  Oh great, this again.  Kiss characterization and development goodbye, this episode is going to be advantage-focussed.  

As I hinted at earlier, Tika comes in last, largely again due to Carolyn.  The competition between Ratu and Soka is a bit more intense.  Soka comes out on top this time, which I find a bit odd considering who gets picked for the journey.  Carson from Tika and Jaime from Ratu are their choices from the other tribes, but these make some sense.  Both could be a decent guess for who’s on the outs from a given tribe (Carson for nerdiness, Jaime for quirkiness), and neither are the best challenge performers of their team, save when it comes to puzzles.  Yet, for some reason, Soka decides that JOSH should go on the journey.  You know, Josh, the guy they were JUST TALKING ABOUT VOTING OFF?!  Yeah, send him to get a potentially game-breaking advantage, I’m sure that has no chance whatsoever of backfiring!  The only things I can figure are either that they needed to send him to keep up the lie that he was a swing vote, or they were hoping he’d lose a vote.  Valid reasons if true, but still seems awfully risky when there were other options.  I doubt Josh would be too suspicious if Heidi was sent, since she seems fairly social with everyone, even if not the swing vote from Josh’s perspective.  

Jaime in particular is excited for this trip, both to get something for herself, but also because she “had her eye” on Josh and Carson as potential cross-tribe allies.  Ah good, the “people can talk” benefit of these “Journeys” is coming back, aka the best part of them.  Surely now we we get to see negotiation and strategizing between these three!  

Nope.  After Carson talks about needing some advantage of his own, the three just go on separate paths, never to talk again until a merge situation.  Why must you squander your best parts, show?

Actually what’s at the end of these paths is a bit different: A time-limited idol.  Expires at the merge.  Ok, decent enough reward, but without any randomness, you know there’s going to be a price.  And that price is that you’re getting sent to a different tribe at random (though presumably no the one you came from)!  Yes, for the first time in the new era, we’re having something akin to a tribe swap!  Granted I’d still prefer that it be a full-cast thing, either random or through schoolyard pick, but I’ll take what I can get.  Moreover, this now adds an element of danger to being sent on a “Journey”.  Yes, there’s always a risk of some sort to it, but it’s mostly stuff that can seem really abstract, like the vote loss potential.  Being swapped to another tribe is a fear as old as tribe swaps, however, and thus a bit more visceral.  Getting people to think twice about even GOING on the “Journey” is an element I’m happy we get to explore moving forward!  

The drawback, obviously, is that the people it first affects are screwed, with no real way to anticipate said screwing.  That said, both the way the show handles it, and the tribes themselves, help mitigate how swap-screwed these three players are.  On the show’s end of things, giving these players an idol that is specifically time-limited to only work in the Tribal phase is a genius idea.  Yes, it’s in many ways screwing over a player’s game, but also giving them a lifeline to maneuver and/or cause chaos.  They had the means to save themselves from at least one vote; if they go out immediately after said swap, that’s on them.  It could be disastrous for their game, or an opportunity to make bonds with another tribe as well as your original one.  How it pans out is up to the player, the show just provides adequate tools to do so.  

Regarding how the tribes themselves don’t swap-screw everybody, let’s start at Ratu, who come across as the least-united of the tribes.  By that, I mean they don’t openly talk about how united they are in confessional.  They get Carson, helping strengthen them for challenges while providing a prime puzzle-solver (not that Ratu was particularly weak in that area, but it was definitely not where their strengths primarily were, and losing Jaime is not that much of a loss challenge-wise).  Carson also plays the situation well, presenting himself as on the outs with Yam Yam as tribe leader, and not mentioning his idol.  Very plausible lies, at least to get him to the merge, and for once, it’s ok to say you didn’t get anything from the island, given how unprecedented the swap itself is in the new era.  

Our larger commentary on Carson’s arrival comes from Matthew.  Having set up that whole elaborate bonding moment with Jaime in the last episode, he’s naturally a bit upset that she’s now not on his tribe.  Undeterred, however, Matthew decides to set about bonding with Carson.  He tells us information is power in this game.  He’s correct in this assessment, which is why you should guard information closely, and use it strategically.  Then Matthew tells us that he’s going to share information with Carson, aka exactly the OPPOSITE of what you should do with power in this game!  

Ok, ok, in fairness, what Matthew is ACTUALLY talking about doing is much smarter.  The “information” he shares mostly isn’t real information.  He does tell of Brandon’s idol find and play, but then tells of Jaime’s finding of his fake, playing it off as the real idol.  This is a much more solid plan.  All the “information” he gives Carson is either so outdated as to be pretty much worthless, or patently false.  At the same time, he creates a bond with Carson, while also obfuscating his idol.  About the only negative of this strategy is the possibility that Carson throws Matthew under the bus, but given that Matthew seems to be the most socially-connected on the tribe, I doubt that’s a huge risk.  So yeah, good strategy on Matthew’s part, just described by him in probably the worst possible way.  

Tika, despite the Sarah rift, is much more united in their distaste for Josh.  Josh wisely doesn’t tell Tika about his idol, but also pulls the “Personal Trainer” card, claiming this as his occupation.  This is a lie that Tika does not buy, mostly because they overheard Josh saying he would do the snake maze two episodes due to his job requiring “steady hands”.  Somewhat plausible for a personal trainer, but not the most likely skill set.  This combined with his timeline of his life leaving a lot of room for medical school leads the tribe to the correct conclusion that Josh is a doctor, and given that he lied to them, untrustworthy.  Not since landscaper Gary Hawkins of “Survivor Guatemala” has a cross-tribe lie about one’s occupation been so impactful.  

To be fair, Josh probably would have been targeted even without getting caught in a lie.  In case you haven’t noticed, Tika is not doing too well in the numbers game.  They’re quickly becoming the disaster tribe of the season, and not wanting to leave or be grossly outnumbered come the merge, they need someone else to eliminate, and Josh is prime meat in that category.  Granted, if Tika lost AGAIN after eliminating Josh, they’d be forced to eliminate someone from Tika regardless, but still, some logic.  That said, Josh is a physical powerhouse, something Tika has been in DESPERATE need of challenge-wise this whole season.  Granted, their puzzle-solving prowess is lessened without Helen and Carson, but Yam Yam and Sarah are not slouches in this area either.  Add onto that an exploit of mistrust from Sarah, and if Josh plays this well, he might be safe even without his idol.  Though note that I say IF.  

Jaime is probably in the worst spot out of all those swapped.  Soka retroactively made a good decision sending Josh on the “Journey”, since the united four remain together, but I’m not giving them strategy points for doing so.  They had no way to predict that would happen; they just got lucky.  Soka, meanwhile, probably got the worst end of the trade in terms of challenge ability, and while they do still have Danny, challenges will likely be more even now, putting Jaime at more risk of going to Tribal Council moving forward.  That said, if Jaime plays well, she could exploit the fear of a couple to split the tribe, thereby saving herself without the idol.  Though again, note that I say IF.  

While Jaime also wisely does not say she has anything from the “Journey”, Soka is the only tribe we see to actively not believe this.  Danny searches her bag (though all but Jaime herself agreed to the plan).  He comes up with nothing, though as Matt correctly notes, Jaime could just be keeping her idols to herself.  I’d say Jaime is in the toughest situation of the three, but again, there’s some exploits here.  

Despite the good things the “Journey” has brought so far, it has also taken time away from us.  After those brief interludes with the new tribes, we cut straight to the immunity challenge.  We don’t even get commentary about the new tribes from them at the challenge.  The best thing to come out before Probst explains the challenge is Lauren’s epic pose with the sword on the ride in.  

As the presence of boats would indicate, we have a water challenge today.  One tribe member at a time swims out to a platform, jumps off to get a key, crosses a balance beam afterward, then swims to the end platform.  Once all four tribe members and keys are there, they must solve a manta-ray shaped puzzle, with the first two teams to do so winning immunity.  Say it with me now: Pretty bog-standard challenge, but at least the puzzle is slightly interesting.  

After Matthew FINALLY says “Hey, maybe I SHOULDN’T overtax my shoulder!” and sits out of a godforsaken challenge after the first one, we get off to the race.  This is the sort of challenge where you just don’t want to screw up, as evidenced by Soka cruising to an easy victory by just steadily running the course without any mistakes.  Ratu is shown to make the most mistakes, first with Lauren missing a key on her jump, but then continuing the course anyway.  She’s allowed to do so, but one other tribe member must then run the course AGAIN to make up for this.  Yam Yam helps even the field by sucking on the balance beam, only for it to turn out Kane ALSO sucks on the balance beam.  A for-once solid performance by Carolyn evens things back up, with Tika getting a slight head-start on the puzzle.  If you listen to Probst, however, you’d think Ratu was way behind in getting to the puzzle, when it was maybe 30 seconds at most based on the footage.  

Normally even this slight edge would be enough for a Tika win, but it seems they really did get rid of their puzzle prowess by voting out Helen and losing Carson.  It’s still pretty close, but Ratu edges out second place.  Josh, therefore, is in hot water.  While they don’t know for certain if he has anything, Tika wants to play it safe and lull Josh into a false sense of security.  Sarah summons her best acting chops to tell Josh that they want to work with him.  Unfortunately, she summons the acting chops of Ben Stein, and gives one of the least-convincing performances I’ve ever seen on this show.  No, Sarah, LESS emotion!  You don’t want to overdo it now!  

You would think that Josh would pick up on this, and based on how the episode ultimately plays out it’s possible he does, but we certainly never see it.  Instead, our misdirection comes courtesy of Wackiness Incarnate, Carolyn.  You see, they need a plausible alternate vote story for Josh, and given Carolyn’s weakness in challenges, coupled with her behavior at camp, she’s the obvious decoy boot.  All three agree to do this, and Josh, sure enough, tries to exploit what he sees as a crack.  He tells Carolyn about his idol, which I don’t object to.  Better to save it if you can, and if you can use that information as leverage, so much the better.  What I WILL knock Josh for is promising to use it on CAROLYN!  I don’t care how solid a plan seems: When you are the only person outside of a tribe that has been together this whole time, you DO NOT use your idol on anyone but yourself!  Threaten people that they may GO if you play your idol, but you would be one of the biggest idiots to be voted out after playing your idol for someone else.  

Josh may get clued in, however.  What I neglected to mention in the Carolyn bluff plan was that this was Yam Yam’s brain child.  Moreover, it wasn’t so much a discussion as a “Here’s how it has to be.”  This, naturally, has Carolyn upset, and considering telling Josh, feeling she can’t trust Yam Yam anymore.  I can see where she’s coming from, but for once this season, this is a clear-cut decision: Vote for Josh anyway.  Worst case scenario, he plays his idol on himself and Sarah goes home, since you proposed that as a possibility to him, and it’s the only really plausible one he has.  Best case scenario, you keep the numbers of your original tribe.  Yeah Yam Yam did not have the best diplomacy skills there, but are you really going to trust the guy you just met maybe a day ago over the guy you’ve been with from the start.  

It seems it wasn’t just Sarah who needed acting lessons: The whole of Tika needed them, as evidenced by this Tribal Council.  Sarah showed it before, and I’ll lump Josh in there for his “Personal Trainer” lie getting caught.  But after Josh gives the usual talk to Probst about the trouble he’s in due to the swap, Yam Yam and Carolyn get in a fight so fake, I was certain I’d accidentally switched to a wrestling show!  Yes, it know it proves semi-real later, but Yam Yam at least seemed like he was trying to fake it, and Carolyn not that different from him.  But in addition to bad acting, we get bad moves!  Fake as it is, this argument is a saving grace for Josh.  A crack he can exploit.  All he has to do is leave himself out of it, so naturally he interjects into the argument to talk about how he’s avoiding the spotlight and not in the argument.  Way to avoid drawing attention to yourself by drawing attention to yourself, my dude.  

Given Josh’s increased screen time this episode, it’s safe to say I thought he was really going to do a dumb and play his idol for Carolyn, possibly necessitating an update to the “Dumbest Player Ever” list.  Josh wouldn’t take the top spot by a long shot, but he might at least have made top 10, if not top 5.  Instead, Josh takes the safe route, and plays the idol on himself.  Whether Carolyn tipped him off we don’t yet know, but it’s possible, as she voted with him.  Sarah therefore ends up going, and sad as it is to say, I’m not overly sorry.  Again, nothing against Sarah.  She seems perfectly nice.  But compared to the rest of the players on this tribe, she was the least exciting character-wise (while we rarely hear from Josh, it’s at least decently memorable when we do), and probably out soon after him even if she succeeded.  Moreover, her exit means that the overpowered “Inheritance Advantage” was POINTLESS, and I’m very happy for that.  Unfortunately, I get the sneaking suspicion that the show is going to put it back in, if not on this season than a future one.  Hopefully it’s the latter, and the tweak how overpowered it is.  

Really, the one thing that majorly upsets me about Sarah’s exit is that it doesn’t feel narratively satisfying.  After the Helen vote, Sarah was clearly the underdog of Tika.  She had that great confessional last episode about the challenge needing to go perfectly for her to have a chance to save herself, only for exactly that to happen.  This episode, she stops being the main target due to Josh getting swapped to the tribe.  All this was setting up what looked to be a great “Underdog comes back to gain power against incredible odds” story.  An oldie but a goody.  So for her to just get a relatively unceremonious vote-out just feels wrong somehow.  Sorry Sarah, if you’re reading this.  

Can’t deny, this episode is a step down from the previous few.  Not bad, but a larger focus on twists rather than players left everything feeling rushed.  Then, we had bad gameplay built up, only to fizzle out into normal gameplay, which feels like a letdown.  And, to add insult to injury, yet ANOTHER woman voted out pre-merge!  Can we please fix that soon, though in a way that doesn’t involve the potential medical evacuation of Matthew?

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.