I’m normally not one to complain about writing this blog. I love “Survivor”, I’m not getting paid, and I just consider the blog an extension of my enjoyment. But I REALLY hope you people appreciate what I’m going through with this one. The particular twist to this season has made reading through the cast biographies UNBEARABLE! If I have to hear rants about “Trophies for participating.” or “Free-Spriritedness” one more time, I’LL STOP WATCHING THE SHOW!
Ok, perhaps that’s a bit extreme. After all, I love this show too much for even THIS annoyingness to put me off of it, and given the twist of the season, we’re doubtless going to be hearing confessionals on these subjects a lot. Which brings me to the point I’ve made before, but bears repeating, that THIS IS A DUMB TWIST! Apart from being a thinly-disguised rehash of “Survivor Nicaragua”, CLEARLY seeding this season for success right off the bat, it just antagonizes two groups, that, otherwise, probably wouldn’t be at each other’s throats. Pretty much all of the points that drive me up the wall with these people come from the question “What does it mean to be (insert generation here)?”, a question that would not be asked were it not for the sake of the twist. Yes, we’ve had similar forced divisions with twists like “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty”, but there at least, the division was kind of already there to begin with, and didn’t feel like it was bringing the modern world into “Survivor”. Hell, about the only connection I can think of is Carl Bilancione bitching about “Generation X” on “Survivor Africa”, and even that’s stretching it. Point being, it makes me dislike this cast right from the beginning just because of the twist they were cast on.
And truth be told, that’s a shame. There’s a lot to like about this cast overall, and while they may not be the stuff of legends, no one’s teeth-gratingly annoying, and like “Survivor Kaoh Rong” before it, we’ve very few if any generic cast fodder. Had they been put on a different season, I daresay this cast would have been one I’d be raving about up until the show starts. As it stands, they get a “Meh, pretty good, I guess.” pretty much entirely due to the twist.
But just who are these unlucky wunderkinds? Let’s meet them now, in no particular order (though divided up by tribes).
VANUA (Millennials)
Michelle Schubert (28, Missionary Recruiter, Yakima, WA): Ok, while I do think this cast has a lot of potential, I will concede that there are a LOT of very religious people this time around, which I’ve been wary of since having watched “Survivor South Pacific”. We’ve seen in the past that such excessive religion can ruin an otherwise good season. That said, a lot of my fear in this regard is my own personal bias showing, and by and large, I’d say while the people CLAIM to be very religious in their biographies, it doesn’t show too much. That is, except for Michelle. She’s not the one I’d have predicted (occupation aside), but Michelle is our Bible-thumper for the season. Is she irredeemable? Certainly not! As I say, there’s a fair amount of religious people this season, so she’ll definitely find people to relate to. She doesn’t seem to want to let her religion hold her back game-wise, and she does seem to have a good sense of nerdy humor (“Settlers of Catan” was mentioned as a favorite pastime, which always gets a thumbs-up from me, and when asked to give three words to describe herself, she answers “Hungry, hungry hippos”, which is just the kind of non-sequitur I can get behind). But on the whole, I think she’s just too religious, even for this group, and may be in a bit over her head. Definitely expect her out before the merge, and to be somewhat annoying via religious talk.
Taylor Lee Stocker (24, Ski Instructor, Postfall, ID): Ok, this cast is actually more than just generic people, I swear! Man, we are not starting out on the right foot this time around. All the bland people at the beginning. Taylor is your generic good-looking guy we have to have every season, so the women can ogle some guy without a shirt. Actually, it occurs to me that good pecs are an odd quality to have in a ski instructor. Well, moving on, Taylor is unfortunately our main source of arrogance and annoyance from the Millennial side of things in terms of talking about “free spiritedness” and whatnot, but apart from that, he’s just bland, and shall do as all generic good-looking guys do: pad along quietly until the merge, then last a bit longer due to the major strategic threats picking one another off, then getting offed himself for being a challenge threat. And nothing of value will be lost.
Michaela Bradshaw (25, Vacation Club Sales, Ft. Worth, TX): Ah, now this is what we’re talking about! Michaela is actually one of my favorite players this season (not my absolute favorite, we’ll get to him), and she’s also my female pick to win the whole shebang! Michaela is on the younger side of things, even for this cast, and certainly seems like she knows how to kick back and have fun. At the same time, I don’t see the flakiness in her that I see in a LOT of members of this tribe. She doesn’t talk like your stereotypical young black woman (a rarity for this show), and you can tell just from looking at her that, while she doesn’t necessarily show it brazenly, she’s got a fire going in her, a determination that suits her well. As with most seasons of “Survivor”, I feel that the winner is most likely going to be the player who can best balance what is needed to win this season. As those qualities often relate to the twist of the season (due to everyone on said season INCESSANTLY TALKING ABOUT IT) the winner this time around, I say, will be someone who can balance the carefree nature of Millennials and the work ethic of Gen X. Michaela, more than anyone, exemplifies this. She’s in no way a flaky party girl, but she’s unassuming enough that she can fake it. When she’s forced to interact with the other tribe, she’ll be able to use her life story and general attitude to fit in with them. She’s also another one I was worried about being overly religious, but from what I’ve seen, it barely informs her character, meaning she can use it to get in with the religious people on the season, but not offend the others. It’s a good balance, and add onto that a healthy bout of social awareness, and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Michaela DOESN’T win! In fact, I’d compare her favorably to Vecepia Towry (“Survivor Marquesas”): Able to blend in wherever she goes, and almost sneak her way to a win.
Zeke Smith (28, Asset Manager, Brooklyn, NY): Ooh, Zeke. Poor, poor Zeke. You all remember Zeke, right? He was featured prominently in the “Next Season” preview at the end of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Guy with the loud Hawaiian shirt and the tacky moustache? Yeah, he’s that guy. If you wanted further reason to cringe, his mannerisms are regrettably reminiscent of Colton Cumbie (“Survivor One World”). Not to say that he’s anything at all like Colton! No, Zeke is MUCH more self-aware, self-effacing, and generally has a good attitude for life. Jokes aside, I like the guy. He’s got good spirit, is a real fan of the show, and is just generally going to be fun to watch. At least, in his brief time on the show, he’s going to be fun to watch. Zeke, I suspect, was picked in early marketing for the show because he stands out so much, which makes sense. You’re selling a season to an audience, you want to use your most memorable people. That said, early on in “Survivor”, and I don’t think I can emphasize this enough, STANDING OUT IS NOT A GOOD THING! Zeke is clearly a different breed from the rest of his tribe, even joking branding them “Children” in his bio, and for this, he is toast. Too easy a target too early. Granted, you could argue that he’s got the skills to blend in with the other tribe, and I agree if he makes it that far then he’ll be ok, but the odds against that are just so slim. Unlike someone like Michaela, Zeke just can’t blend. It’s not in his nature. Zeke’s out before even the tribe swap, no question there.
Hannah Shapiro (24, Barista, West Hollywood, CA): It would seem that “Survivor” is attempting to have more nerds on each season, and as a nerd, I am grateful. However, unlike some other nerds we’ve seen who break stereotypes, Hannah fits all too well into a “nerdy” stereotype. I hope she does better than I think she’ll do, because she seems to genuinely love the show and has a lot of endearing qualities. Unfortunately, the impression I get from her is a horrible combination of “In over her head” and “Out-there”. Granted I labeled Aubry Bracco a similar way last season, and you see how that turned out, but the impression I get from Hannah is less “Aubry” and more “Shirin” (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And I’m talking pre-merge Shirin, where she was hopelessly out of touch and just generally creeping everyone else out. Hannah definitely has it in her bring out the game of at least post-merge Shirin, if not even an Aubry-type game, but my gut says she’s yet another pre-merge boot.
Jessica “Figgy” Figueroa (24, Bartender, Nashville, TN): Remember, I said this cast was MOSTLY devoid of generic players. Quirky nickname aside, Figgy doesn’t really stand out for me one way or the other. She could be one of the craftiest players ever, or she could be a complete flop. I honestly cannot tell. Since I do have to make some sort of prediction, though, I’m going to say that Figgy won’t make the merge. The one thing about her that DID leave an impact was talking about her latina heritage making her “spicy” or a bit bombastic. Pulled off right, this can be a real game-maker. However, it’s a difficult personality style to play with, and I don’t see enough from Figgy to really make me believe she can. She’ll definitely be around for several episodes, since while I don’t see her making the merge, I do see her coming close, but don’t expect her to win.
Mari Takahashi (31, Professional Gamer, Los Angeles, CA): You will forgive me for ripping off a Dalton Ross joke from “Survivor Exile Island”, but it’s just too perfect here. I for one, am glad that “Survivor” was kind enough to allow Ken Hoang (“Survivor Gabon”) to have a sex change and compete on the show again. He’s always been one of my personal favorites, and an underrated gem from a long-neglected season of the show. Joking aside, Mari actually has very few similarities to Ken, beyond the pair being Asian-American professional video game players. Ken’s arc was all about overcoming shyness, and having an unassuming demeanor. Mari simply EXUDES confidence, and looks like she can take on the world. And I like it. There’s something infectious about her kind of cheeriness that I just can’t help but love. On top of that, the woman’s clearly got game, shown both through what little strategic discussion we get from her and from her absolutely BUILT body! I’ll admit, I may have a wee bit of a crush, though not nearly to the degree that I had on someone like Aubry or Julia Landauer (“Survivor Caramoan”). Still, in the span of a short time, Mari’s guile and intellect have won me over. I don’t see her winning, just because she IS so brazen in a lot of ways, but I see her doing well. She won’t be going down without a fight, that’s for certain, so I’d say look for her demise around the mid-merge point, when she just can’t win immunity anymore.
Justin “Jay” Starrett (27, Real Estate Agent, Ft. Lauderdale, FL): Jay ALMOST fell into the same category as Taylor earlier, but he’s got just enough of an edge to him to stand out. The pair are similar, both in terms of looks and exposing about the supposed virtues of millennials, but Jay seems like he really wants to be here, and that he’s got a bit more going on than Taylor. He doesn’t hide it very well, but it’s there. Sadly, his poor job of hiding it will be his undoing. While Taylor can pretty much coast by until the merge, Jay will be seen as both a physical and strategic threat, meaning his demise will be coming slight sooner, before the merge. After the tribe swap, most certainly, but unless he can hide his darker, more intellectual side better than he showed here, the man will be picked off by the opposing tribe.
Adam Klein (25, Homeless Shelter Manager, San Francisco, CA): I’ve been pretty down on the guys for this tribe thus far. We’ve got two who I don’t like but might do ok, and one guy I enjoy but who’s probably not long for the game. Isn’t there anyone who might break this pattern? As you might guess from the hyperbolic introduction to him, there is, and his name is Adam, my personal favorite player on the season. Adam’s got enough nerdy qualities to endear himself to me, but not enough to be truly stereotypical. The guy’s also got a philosophy on life I can identify with: make a difference rather than make money. Granted, this could mark a short time in the game, and he’s certainly not my male pick to win the whole thing, but the guy’s got more going for him than you’d think. He’s another fan of the show, which almost always bodes well, and the fact that he’s not in-your-face about it can only help him. While he does seem to have his moral code, it’s pretty clear he can toss that out the window, and he’s smart enough (particularly given his manager experience) to keep up the pace strategically. What brings him down is a potential lack of focus, as well as just being a bit of an obvious schemer as the numbers whittle down around him. The latter is fairly self explanatory, but as for the former, well, the poor guy’s mom has cancer, and he’s playing for her. As Jenna Morasca demonstrated on “Survivor The Amazon”, being distracted by an ill family member does not guarantee loss, and can even help you at times, but it’s just too big of a risk for me to give Adam my full pick. The guy’s got a lot going on, though, so I expect him to make it fairly far. Mid-to-late merge, probably. Then someone will figure out his game, and he’ll be gone.
Will Wahl (18, High School Student, Long Valley, NJ): Will has the distinction of being the youngest person ever to compete on “Survivor”. I hope he enjoys that distinction, because he won’t be around long enough to make an impact any other way. I’m not normally opposed to a player on the basis of age alone, but the fact is that it does take at least a certain emotional maturity to play “Survivor” really well, and that’s more likely to come in an older person. Granted, age is no guarantee of maturity, nor youth immaturity (see Dan Foley on “Survivor Worlds Apart” for an example of the former, and Julia Sokolowski on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” for an example of the latter), but in the case of Will, I don’t see much of anything to indicate otherwise, so I have to go with the null hypothesis in this case. Now, he is a fan of the show, but that alone does not overcome his potential age problem. He might be able to get away with PLAYING older, since his voice is WAY too deep for his looks, but I feel like he’ll betray himself eventually, and thus is gone before the merge.
TAKALI (Gen-X)
Sunday Burquest (45, Youth Pastor, Ostego, MN): Remember those religious people I was railing against earlier? Yeah, Sunday is definitely one of them, though not quite to the degree that I thought she’d be. I honestly thought she’d take Michelle’s spot on the annoyingly religious scale, but she’s overall very humble about the whole thing, increasing her chances. On top of that, she actually made a compelling argument in her introductory video that swayed me a bit, pointing out that both as a mother and a youth pastor, she’s good at handling children, a skill that will most likely come in handy for her. Plus, the tribe mother role is one that’s worked in the past, and I do think Sunday has the skills to pull it off. Will she, though? I think not. Unfortunately, the twist of this season has presumably fired up an independent spirit within the millennials, and as Freud would love, mother is amongst the first to go. Considerable though her skills are, Sunday and her religion might just be SLIGHTLY too divisive to overcome the other tribe, and so once she comes into contact with them, she’s a goner. Granted, she’s got a good fighting spirit, so I don’t think she’s gone IMMEDIATELY after the swap, but probably during the early merge.
Ciandre “CeCe” Taylor (39, Insurance Adjuster, Granada Hills, CA): You just COULDN’T give us two non-stereotypical black women on this season, could you show? No, CeCe fills our role of “sassy black woman” for the season, and even brings in Cydney Gillon’s supposed gimmick of having multiple personalities from last season. Not good signs overall, and it doesn’t help that she’s one of the more vocal anti-millennials of the season. True, that might just be the line of questioning in pre-game interviews, but the fact remains that if she pulls that attitude on members of the other tribe, she just won’t last that long. I don’t buy her claims that being an insurance agent in any way prepares you for the game, so I don’t expect her to last long. A pre-merge boot if ever there was one, though she’ll probably make the tribe swap ok.
Rachel Ako (37, Recruiting Director, Los Angeles, CA): When I first started looking at this cast, one of the things I liked from their bios alone, was the fact that they all seemed to have a fairly equal shot. True, some people were obviously better players than others, but no one really seemed to be cannon fodder. I was happy that way. And then Rachel presented herself in her video, and it became clear that yes, there IS cannon fodder on this season. Vapid supermodel? Check. No real accomplishments outside of that, despite claims to the contrary? Check. Hopelessly naive about the nature of the game? Check and double check! Rachel sealed the deal on her first-boot status by talking in her video about how surprised she was to see a fellow contestant who was a “jerk”, as “everyone else seemed like really good people.” Oh you sweet, naive thing. If your opposing attitude towards the rest of your tribe wasn’t enough, this just made it abundantly clear who will go first. You don’t go into “Survivor” thinking that people will be good people, and expect them to fall in line with you.
Lucy Huang (42, Dietician, Diamond Bar, CA): Lucy, much like Figgy on the other team, is a bit of a tough nut to crack. She’s got some things going for her, being stronger physically than you’d expect, and the constant drive to better herself is a plus, but she also seems to have something about her that seems haughty. I can’t put my finger on what it is, since she doesn’t do or say anything particularly egregious, but I get the feeling that she’ll have a hard time fitting in with other people, even on her own tribe. I don’t see her as TOO early a target because of this, but I don’t see her making it too far either. She could make the merge, she could not, but she’ll be gone somewhere in that time period.
Ken McNickle (33, Model, Denver, CO): Ken ALMOST got the first boot pick before I got to Rachel. The guy’s hardworking enough to fit in on his tribe, I suppose, but his lifestyle just seemed so diametrically opposed to his tribe’s attitude in general that I didn’t see him lasting too long. His claim to fame is living alone, pretty much self-sufficient in Hawaii for about 5 years, which is impressive, but seems too hippy-dippy for a tribe like this one. Add onto that the fact that he’s got an obvious bit of sleaze to him and he’s in trouble. This is a tribe that isn’t hurting too much in the athletic department, and add onto that his obvious conniving nature, combined with a probably attitude of “Age and treachery” from the power on his tribe, and I had him labeled a goner. And then, he got to talking about his little girl, in a very sweet, genuine way, and everything changed. Here at last is a link, an uncompromising, human link that the guy can use as an “in”, and protect himself early game. For all his talk, he’s got the smarts to do at least that, so expect him to be around for at least a little while. Since he is so transparent, I don’t see any alliance keeping him around long post-merge, but he could win immunities, so I’d say he’s actually gone more like early or mid merge. Odd, how one little confessional can change that.
Jessica Lewis (37, Assistant District Attorney, Voorheesville, NY): WOW! Now THIS is a woman I can get behind! Powerful, smart, and with a good wit to back her up. What’s not to like? Nothing, actually. It’s only because of the amazingness that is Michaela that Jessica isn’t my pick to win. Well, that and the fact that historically lawyers do not do well on the show, but Jessica may break the pattern yet. She clearly knows what she’s doing, has prepped herself, and despite having many of the conventional attitudes of her tribe, seems like enough of a chameleon to blend in come the tribe swap. I guess if I were to find fault in her, it’s that she’s clearly a woman who likes to be in power. Again, I’m very much all for that, especially on this show, but historically, such players tend to lose, which is unfortunate. Still, look for Jessica’s lawyer skills to take her deep, probably leaving sometime late-merge.
Bret LaBelle (42, Police Officer, Dedham, MA): Bret follows the “Rodney Lavoie Jr.” Model of character, seen on “Survivor Worlds Apart”. The man is loud, bombastic, funny, and very much set in his ways, which will be trouble come the tribe swap. With regards to his original tribe, he fits right in, but with the other tribe, he’s an obvious target, both not fitting in well and being threatening. I don’t see any flexibility from this guy, and that alone makes him a goner. He’ll probably be a lot of fun, but don’t expect him to last beyond the tribe swap, or make the merge.
David Wright (42, Television Writer, Sherman Oaks, CA): Were it not for the inclusion of Adam in the cast, David would be my personal favorite. He’s got a good wit, a good sense about himself, doesn’t take the twist of this season NEARLY as seriously as the rest of his team (he notes “eating breakfast” as being part of what defines Gen X, an obviously glib answer), and even shares a few of my pet peeves (people who don’t use their turn signals and people who believe in ghosts and psychics in particular coming to mind). The dude does not belong in the wild, a fact that he blatantly admits, but it endears me to him all the more. Apart from making for a very compelling character, it means that the drive to win the show must be SO STRONG that it outweighs all the negatives, a factor that can lead to a person making it to the end, or even winning. Sure enough, David is my male pick to win the whole thing. While he doesn’t fit in the BEST with his tribe he seems like the sort of guy who’ll fade into the background very well, maybe taking on a subtle leadership role as the man behind the man, but nothing more. While he is on the older side of things, even for this tribe, he personality seems youthful enough that I think he could blend well with the other tribe. Like Michaela, this gives him an edge I think few other people this season have, and that alone makes him the biggest male threat to win.
Paul Wachter (52, Boat Mechanic, Sugarloaf Key, FL): Out of all the pre-cast interviews, Paul got the most comments from the other players (many saying that he was a retired NFL player for some reason), and it’s easy to see why. The dude stands out, with long hair, tattoos, and a certain devil-may-care attitude almost. A distinctive person and this could be a bad thing, but alone amongst this season, Paul is a standout who might be ok. I don’t see his tribe losing very much early on, and while Paul might be an early target for standing out so much, he’s got a good enough head on his shoulders to not make waves I feel, and will let the tribe have their bigger fish to fry. Once he’s with the other tribe, they’ll pretty much automatically accept him for being an acceptably “out there” older person. Granted, both his bio and (to a lesser extent) his video had him being fairly critical of the other tribe, but from his general attitude, I get the feeling that this is more opinions being drawn out of him by the twist than genuine attitudes, and that he’d be smart enough to keep those to himself when he’s with the others. Now, I also don’t see him winning, since I don’t think he’s got the desire or the strategic skill to get there, but being an easygoing guy should get him to the early or mid merge, I’d say.
Chris Hammons (38, Trial Lawyer, Moore, OK): Continuing our trend of “Almosts” for this cast, Christ was ALMOST the male pick to win it all. A contradiction in terms, Chris is the slack-jawed yokel with a law degree. Gotta admit, that’s something you don’s see every day on “Survivor”, and should make for an interesting watch. Chris should do well, since his accent and general demeanor will probably make people underestimate him, and think he’s not as smart as he really is. I say SHOULD because while we get a lot of the “good old country boy” from him, I never really saw anything that made me think of his law degree. Perhaps they just hand them out in Oklahoma? I kid, I kid. I’m banking on Christ showing more smarts in the game than he did in his video and bio, so I’ll give him a mid-to-late merge exit. This lack of evidence would have made him a bit of a gamble, but he should at least be entertaining, and might even come to a dark horse victory.
And there you have what is actually a really good cast. Nice mix of strategists and characters (often in the same person), no really “wasted” slots, and definitely some people for the audience to latch onto. Too bad this twist makes a lot of them look like elitist assholes. Perhaps the show itself can even out the perspective, and make them likable again, but as it stands, I’m not as excited for the season as I usually am, mainly because of the twist.
Speaking of twists, I have one for you, my readers, and sadly it’s not a good one. Somehow, writing a free blog on the internet does not make me enough money to live on, so I recently acquired a full-time job. Normally this wouldn’t be a problem, but I work a shift that happens during the time “Survivor” airs, and so I will not be able to watch it the minute it comes out. This, in turn, means that “Idol Speculation” will lose some of it’s famed punctuality. It really hurts me to have to do this, but being able to pay rent and buy food is SLIGHTLY more important than watching “Survivor”, so, even though it loses the one thing this blog had going for it, I must wait to give you what you want. Still, I shall endeavor to avoid all spoilers, watch the show as soon as I can, and give you my honest reactions, hopefully free of outside influence.
I was wrong on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, let’s hope I’m wrong on this one! See you next month for, as I’m calling it, “Survivor MGX”!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 