Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 9: Cast Away

Longtime readers will know one of my coined but lesser-used terms on this blog, “The Shamar Threshold”.  Named for Shamar Thomas of “Survivor Caramoan” (see, Tim, you’re not the only one who remembers him), this refers to the point where someone initially picked to be dragged to the end as a goat becomes so annoying that they are more of a detriment to one’s social game than any benefit one might receive having them at Final Tribal Council.  We’ve seen a few examples of this over the years, but I think Q may be the only example I’ve seen to get the “goat” designation and cross that threshold IN THE SAME EPISODE!  A speed record, if nothing else.  

Naturally, conversation once we get back from the last Tribal Council is all centered around Q.  Pretty much everyone sits stunned, and states the obvious fact that he’s now untrustworthy for pulling a stunt like this.  I brace myself for Q pulling another challenge lie, and saying this was all some strategy that makes no sense.  To his credit, however, Q owns up to this being a dumb move.  He explains that he felt the chaos before last Tribal Council was somehow his fault, and as we established with him wanting to go home after a Tribal Challenge loss, he feels he should take the consequence if he messes something up.  Frankly, I think his “chaos” pre-Tribal barely contributed to what was going to go down, but the man at least has internal logical consistency, and again, credit for not trying to play himself up as a mastermind for this.  

Most pissed out of the tribe is Tiffany, who notes that it’s kind of odd for someone claiming to be her “Number 1” to throw around the knowledge of her idol.  Yelling ensues, and despite Q’s attempts to mollify things, Tiffany is clearly not having it.  The Yanu alliance, whatever it was before, is now shot.  Great job, Q!  Please note the sarcasm.  

The yelling is heard back at camp, with most everyone on Tiffany’s side, and saying they want to get out Q.  Liz in particular is mad that Q “stole her move.”  Not sure how.  Yes, he made himself the center of attention at Tribal, but that doesn’t mean he gets credit for Tevin’s ouster.  If anything, this makes great cover for you, Liz!  Still, Liz is on the warpath now, saying she needs to get Q out for her game.  Given what we’ve heard from everyone else, I believe there will be a line on that one, Liz.  

The next morning, guess what, Q is STILL the subject of debate!  Ben refers to what Q pulled last night as a “Poser Move”.  Suddenly, somewhere, Courtney Marit (“Survivor Exile Island”) is extremely confused, and doesn’t know why.  Q, meanwhile, admits that he has a big hill to climb, and so tries to strategize, being pretty chill and casual about it.  Honestly, his demeanor is good, just putting out some feelers.  The flaw is that emotions are still too raw.  No one’s feeling it, Q.  Best bet for you is to just lie low, and hope they target bigger threats.  Hell, even Hunter, a guy desperate for allies, jumps from Q like the proverbial rat from the proverbial burning ship.  The only person willing to give Q even the time of day is Venus, and that strikes me as more her being desperate for ANY alliance than wanting to work with Q in particular.  

All that said, Q may just luck into that situation anyone.  Everyone at the water well talks about how they’ll never vote for Q at the end.  While nothing more comes of it, and there is still some talk about how Q is too much of an X-factor in the game to be trusted, he is starting to look like a possible goat to drag to the end.  Play cool and take it, Q.  

Well, having now spent the first 15 minutes of the episode focussed to the point of near exclusivity on Q, surely we get some talk about the OTHER tribe dynamics, right?  Nope, Tree Mail time!  And not a very happy one at that.  It tells us that the final 9 twist, splitting into three groups of three is happening again.  I am not happy about this.  Look, show, I’m glad you’ve got your 90 minute run time now, but this is NOT the way to fill it. Let the cast fill it themselves.  Don’t throw in these stupid twists to fill time; just let the game play.  That said, while I still overall do not like this format, there are two tweaks to it here that improve it over “Survivor 45”.  The first is that, unlike there, those out on the first leg don’t lose their vote, with a chance to earn it back.  All that happens is that they’re out of the running.  This takes up less time, and is therefore better.  

The second change is that, rather than being randomized, these players have to self-divide into groups of three.  Given how last episode went, this quickly becomes a “Who can get away from Q the quickest?” Contest.  Ben throws Tiffany a lifeline, noting that she “rocks” (shocker), which Kenzie quickly latches onto as well.  Hunter, meanwhile, notes that he hasn’t really worked with Charlie and Maria yet.  Thus, Liz and Venus draw the proverbial short straws, to Venus’ dismay.  

Despite the divide, Q has not given up on trying to influence things.  Hunter, I thought, did a good job in deflecting Q politely when the two tried to talk strategy, but evidently Q saw through it.  He goes up to Charlie, in order to convince him to throw the challenge so the group can target Hunter.  Honestly, not a bad thought.  Even not knowing about his idol, Hunter could very easily immunity his way to the end, and thus here, where team effort matters, might be the easiest point at which to target him.  The flaw in Q’s plan is that, though he pitches it politely enough, he’s still not in a position to do this.  Indeed, Charlie and Maria (once the pair confer) admit they’re more inclined to work with Hunter than Q right now, and thus, his request makes them want to win all the more.  

Probst certainly thinks they will.  After some discussion about the divide, in which Tiffany makes it very clear that it was about avoidance of a certain someone rather than anything else (just say his name at that point, Tiffany), he gets a look at the tribes.  Needing to be “Spicy Probst”, he predicts that Q’s team will be first out.  This being “Survivor” Probst is naturally immediately proven wrong.  Hilarious.  Kenzie has a particularly bad showing on the balance beam, leading to her, Tiffany, and Ben being the first ones out.  

Sadly, we do not get the hilarity that would have been Q winning immunity after all that talk.  His group chokes on the second part, leading Hunter, Maria, and Charlie on to the final endurance part of the challenge.  Maria does surprisingly poorly at this, leaving it down to Charlie and Hunter.  Probst had a big schpiel before this challenge about how your shoulders and butt could not leave the back board, but I feel like that was for show.  Maybe it was just the camera angle, but there were several times I thought both guy’s shoulders left the back board.  It’s honestly well-fought by both guys, but in a surprise, Charlie ends up taking the win.  Did not expect that, good for him!  

That said, for all my complaints about how much time this twist takes up, it is weird that there’s still half the episode left.  There can’t be THAT much strategizing, right?

So Q tries to talk strategy with Kenzie.  She, being her blunt self, flat out tells him she doesn’t want to work with him.  Not that Q’s pitch is bad or anything; he’s once again playing it casual and calm.  It’s just, again, that his social capital is so far in the negative right now that he can’t pitch basically anything and hope for it to land.  

Lucky for him, Big-Move-Itis rears its ugly head amongst this cast once again, as first Venus and then Kenzie note that getting rid of Q or Hunter is the obvious move, meaning this is prime opportunity for a blindside.  The former we could just dismiss as business as usual for a confessional from Venus.  Even if not, her social capital is only marginally larger than Q’s at this point, so she wouldn’t be able to pull anything off.  Kenzie, on the other hand, very much could.  So all right, I’ll bite.  I’d still say Hunter is too much of a challenge threat to let hang around, but hey, I can see an argument for targeting someone else.  So, who does Kenzie want to blindside in a stroke of brilliance?

Tiffany.  

Um, I just have one question: WHY?

Seriously, how does this benefit Kenzie in ANY WAY?  Yes, Tiffany has an idol, and she doesn’t strike me as the type to play it on someone other than herself, but she’s your ALLY!  The person you’re literally closest to!  Yes, she was close with Q as well, but she’s making it pretty clear that bridge is burnt at this point!  You have her in the palm of your hand!  Why discard her?  

I suppose, if Kenzie has perfect knowledge, it could be argued that Tiffany has become closer with Charlie than with her, given that we only see her disclose her thoughts on playing the idol to Charlie.  But then, is Kenzie any closer to them?  Ben’s the other guy we’ve seen her get close to.  If you’re worried about Tiffany getting too close to Charlie, then BREAK HIM AND MARIA UP!  Tiffany might be slightly annoyed, but where’s she going to go?  Back to Q?  I think not!

Kenzie ends up being saved from her own stupidity by Tiffany’s paranoia.  Charlie and Maria are obviously down with this plan (they don’t need Tiffany, and her idol makes her threatening), but are concerned about an idol play.  As such, Charlie goes to try and lull Tiffany into a false sense of security.  Tiffany, however, is having none of it, saying the idol is useless to her if everyone knows she has it, so she’s just going to play it and be done.  Given the target that now seems to be on her back, I can understand this.  Tiffany’s one concern with playing the idol is that it would, at this point, likely go back into circulation with no guarantee she’d find it.  A fair enough concern, but as we’ll find out in a bit, and idol’s no good out of the game either.  

Since Tiffany expresses this concern solely in confessional, Charlie goes back to Maria and Kenzie and reports that plan is a no-go.  What a waste of a segment!  The plan the quickly reverts to Hunter, but unfortunately, between vibes and possibly overhearing them (we see Hunter nearby and looking at them when they’re talking, but never get 100% confirmation that he heard them), Hunter realizes he’s in danger.  He is, naturally, fully willing to play his idol, but would like to earn some allies along the way.  Having almost nowhere else to go, he turns to Q, who is happy to hear a name that isn’t his.  Hunter informs him of the idol.  Risky, but a necessary step so Q goes along with the plan.  Hunter suggests targeting Ben, due to having no connection with him, and the Siga three quickly becoming a tight threat left in the game.  Maria would probably be more of a lynchpin than Ben, but Ben’s the more overt social threat, so I can’t blame this thinking too much.  

Wanting to be absolutely sure, Hunter also tells Venus in order to get her on the “Vote Ben” plan.  Logical from his standpoint.  The flaw is that he doesn’t realize quite how much Venus doesn’t care for him.  She tells EVERYBODY about his idol, and the target flips back to Q as the safe vote, a la Edgardo on “Survivor Fiji”.  With this mess of strategizing, it’s hard to say who the best target is.  Probably still Hunter, given the threat of him immunitying his way to the end, but my usual analysis kind of falls flat here.  Instead, I’ll praise the mystery this episode.  Basically any named target I could see going, and that’s always a plus in my book!

Tribal Council itself also lives up to that hype, though with admittedly a controversial start.  With false humility, Probst says he mishandled the last Tribal, before revealing that he just meant he needed a cushion for his seat, and popcorn to eat.  Funny stuff, but the focus of Tribal Council should be on the people playing, not on Probst, and this really draws attention to the latter rather than the former.  Also, what’s with the sharing of popcorn with the players, Probst?  I thought you had to EARN everything in the new era?

Once we do focus on the players, though, it’s nothing but good stuff.  We get an honest-to-goodness personality fight at Tribal Council, and not just an argument over strategy!  Tiffany and Q just can’t stay away from each other, and get into an argument about who threw who’s name out first.  While she presents as the aggressor, Tiffany’s 100% in the right in this argument.  She notes correctly that Q is only happy when he’s the one in control, and is also correct that Q threw her name out, which Q lies and denies.  I can see Q’s perspective, but he is clearly lying about some things to cover his butt in this scenario.  

Still, Q does try to keep himself more civil, proselytizing about how he wants to be there, and is happy to just sit back and watch the chaos.  Perfect cover for Hunter to make sure the plan really is Q.  He gets his reassurance, and it’s fun to watch.  Even so, if I were Hunter, I’d play my idol, just to be safe.  

Hunter is not me, and evidently has balls of steel, since neither he nor Tiffany play their idol.  Tiffany I can understand, but Hunter really should have.  Especially when the vote comes up a tie between him and Q.  At this point, it’s wiser to go for Hunter on the revote for being a threat, and for all my knocking people’s strategy this season, they do make the right call here.  Ben tries to assure Hunter that he “rocks” on the way out, but Hunter admits that he’s not really feeling that right now.  Oddly, I’m not that sorry to see Hunter go here.  Guy was a nice dude, but didn’t have as much game sense as he looked, and once it was clear he wasn’t going to sweep immunities post-Double-Tribal, his run became much less interesting to me.  Plus, even if Q is playing a worse game, at least he brings the drama.  

For all my praise, I can’t say this episode was any better than “ok”.  Pacing to me seems like the biggest problem here.  Having the stupid “three groups of three” twist was bad enough, but doing it so early in the episode just left the first half feeling rushed, and the back half oddly slow, despite the fun tribe dynamics.  A fun Tribal does elevate it, but this episode would have needed a major reorganization to get higher praise than this from me.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode Several: Wrapped Up With A Nice Little Bow

Inanimate objects, done properly, can become a character in and of themselves.  On “Survivor” immunity idols are the most common example of this, but sometimes people can create their own.  And we may just have one of those tonight.  That was a MAGNIFICENT Buff Bow on Kenzie’s head!  Even with all the emotion at her Tribal Council, I think it stole the show.  

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  While the tribe was unified against Moriah last episode, there was still the stray Venus vote to consider.  Consider it Venus does, and given how she is, she naturally jumps to the conclusion that it was cast by Soda.  Understandable, given how the pair have been interacting these past few days, but wrong.  Soda of course denies this, but this only convinces Venus further.  Everyone, Tevin in particular, is prepared to sit back and watch the fireworks.  

Charlie, then, is the rain that cancels the fireworks.  He comes clean to Venus that he was the stray vote against her.  I have to ask… WHY?  How does this benefit Charlie in any way?  Venus didn’t even suspect him, and this was tearing Nami, the biggest threat to Siga, apart.  Now she knows you moved against her, and Venus does not strike me as the type to forgive and forget.  Even in a best-case scenario, where she decides she has bigger fish to fry and doesn’t immediately try and get you out, say goodbye to that jury vote.  

So egregious is this error that Coach Q comes out again.  He sits Charlie down on the beach (with Tim also there), and just reads him the riot act about how he screwed up a good position.  Not saying Q is wrong, but unsolicited advice is not going to win hearts and minds.  Charlie defuses the situation by “apologizing”, which at least shuts Q up, but this has turned him against Q.  I don’t agree with his conclusion that “Q is running the show” based on this; at worst Q is being a bit too blunt.  It DOES show, however, that Q doesn’t respect your game, and that alone is a reason to work against him.  Point being, Q may be right about what is and isn’t a smart move, but he’s not winning friends with his style of interaction.  

After our intro, we get another scene at night, though this one a bit less confrontational.  Ben wakes up in the middle of a panic attack, and worried about how he’ll be perceived as a result.  Luckily Kenzie is used to this sort of thing, other members of her family having been through similar experiences, so she is able to assist him and comfort him.  She admits that this is something beyond the game, and she’s doing it out of general, human kindness.  Honestly, it’s a very effective scene.  A nice bit of calm before the strategizing storm, and one that didn’t need to be bolstered by turning it into a sob story.  Oddly, the understatement makes the moment more powerful, and frankly it’s just a highlight of the episode.  Well done, show.  

Because we have to stick with the stupid “Split Tribal” twist, we can’t have any more camp scenes for now.  Instead we have to cut straight to our Immunity Challenge, which is the “Stand on the Triangles” one first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  A challenge so boring and predictable I’m more fascinated by them using the buff design along the side of the platform in the water.  Nice touch.  

This is also where we get our first look at the Immunity Idol for this season, at least the individual one.  Solid design, in my opinion.  Reminiscent of the one from “Survivor Cambodia”, with red as a main color and a similar outline.  Being made of beads and adding geckos does help make it unique.  Maybe not an idol for the history books, but a solid entry regardless.  

I will say what this challenge lacks in interest in and of itself, it makes up for in banter.  After Probst notes that the calmer conditions compared to the last time this was run (“Survivor 42”), Q suggests playing the “Alphabet Game” with city names, without actually explaining what the Alphabet Game actually is.  A fact that comes back to bite him in the butt when basically everyone starts violating what Q perceives as the rules.  Hunter starts off with “A for Atlanta”, but then Ben gets knocked out due to not saying that again, despite saying both “Boston” and “Baltimore”.  Liz does get the C in there, but again fails to name the previous names, despite Q saying this must be done.  It’s capped off with Charlie saying he gets it, only to make the same mistake as Liz.  Pretty sure that last one, at least, was intentional.  Seems like too good an opportunity for Charlie to tweak Q’s nose in a joking manner for him not to take it.  

Q, incidentally, is the first one out of this challenge, followed shortly by Ben from his team, leaving Kenzie, Tiffany, Hunter, and Tim up on their side.  Soda falls at about the same time, but she’s on the opposite team, leaving Charlie, Maria, Tevin, Venus, and Liz up for them.  Despite being sidelined, Q still keeps up a good bit of commentary.  He explains to Probst how “Black folks ask what time it is.”, which Probst takes in stride.  When Q goes silent, he explains that he was taught to shut up if he’s not in the game.  Evidently unable to stand the silence, Tim pulls a Gabler (“Survivor 43”), and starts shouting out various people the audience doesn’t know during the challenge.  Q mocks him for this, only for Tim to remind him what his dad taught him about shutting up.  It’s honestly the one thing making this challenge fun, and it helps that it’s clearly just the cast having fun with one another, and no one taking the talk too seriously.  Probst even gets in on the fun a bit, reminding us of Jelinsky’s “Several=7” point from earlier in the season.

Eventually the challenge must get serious, though, and everyone transitions to standing on one foot.  Brenda Lowe and Andrea Boehlke can rest easy knowing their impromptu rule on the first run of this challenge remains an official part of it now.  This leads to several dropouts, but Kenzie, despite winning immunity, drops before either Tevin or Maria.  This means her team will miss out on a reward, and go to Tribal Council first, meaning whoever leaves misses the jury.  As for Tevin and Maria, they have a good battle, with Tevin even having a spectacular comeback from nearly falling over.  IN the end, though, Maria’s lower center of gravity wins the day, and she snags immunity.  

Our teams are sent to separate camps, with the winning six going to the current merge camp.  Here we find out the new tribe is dubbed “Nuinui”.  No real complaints here on that one.  The name is a decent length, and obviously Polynesian in origin (granted Fiji is in MELANESIA, but given they’re part of the same language family, I’ll take it at this point).  That said, all it really makes me want to do is get out my old Bionicle toys again.  

Despite winning, not everyone is happy.  Charlie notes that he’s in an exceptionally precarious spot, being one of only two original Siga on the tribe, and the other having immunity.  He realizes he’s exceptionally vulnerable, a status that Tevin confirms.  Tevin, however, is not content to just let things sit on the obvious target, telling us that he wants to invoke the “First Blindside of the Season”.  Jem might take issue with that characterization, Tevin.  

Over with our losers, Hunter is feeling nervous for similar reasons to Charlie.  He tells us he intents to play his idol tonight, a move I can’t really fault.  True, there is the “Journey 6” alliance he could trust in, but he is the only person without an initial-tribe ally in this group.  Further, he’s a noted physical threat at a rare moment without having immunity, making him a tempting target.  

Certainly Tim thinks so, since he tells Q that Hunter should obviously go.  Q, however, thinks it equally obvious that Ben should go.  After all, Nami is at each other’s throats, and Ben is the only one in this group not part of the “Journey 6”.  Ok, Kenzie technically isn’t either, but she’s immune, and Q is unlikely to go against an original Yanu at this juncture.  A member of the “Journey 6”, however?  He’ll turn on them in a heartbeat, now insisting it has to be Tim for his wishy-washy-ness.  A bit early to be turning on him, but also a bit early to be giving my thoughts on the targeting on these tribes.  

I will say, however, that I don’t buy for one minute that Q intentionally lost that challenge.  It was one that didn’t cover his skill set, and he lied to save face.  Understandable, but either Q’s a far better actor than I credit him, or he’s lying to the camera to save face.  

For now, let’s return to our winners, who have the more intriguing strategy.  Tevin is not the only one who wants to “Make a move”.  Soda is ready to get Venus out, and tries to enlist Charlie and Maria to that end, once everyone is done “napping” on the beach.  Understandable, given their tiff, but also a bad move for Soda.  She’s already kind of screwed since she’s not going to the end with Vcnus, and therefore if she IS in the end, Venus is guaranteed to be on the jury.  Guess who Venus will never vote for in a million years?  Even so, better to have her on the jury later than earlier, lest she poison the whole bunch against you.  

This, however, is not enough of a blindside for Tevin, who marshals Liz, along with a presumed Charlie and Maria, to get out Soda.  He considers her, fairly, to be a social threat.  Can’t deny the logic there.  Not content with this, however, Soda approaches Maria and Charlie individually to blindside Tevin.  Charlie seems on board, at least in part because he prefers ANY plan that doesn’t involve him getting voted out, but Maria is a bit more hesitant.  She wants to keep her options open with the “Journey 6”, and Tevin is a part of that.  Hence, conflict, even if getting out Tevin would be the thing to break Nami apart completely.  

Things get worse for Venus when, having already come on strong with Maria, she pushes her again.  Maria, pretty reasonably, gives Venus advice on how to come at people.  She sympathizes with Venus due to her age, but notes that people don’t like being told what to do.  This advice goes in one ear and out the other, Venus chalking it up to their age disparity.  Way to not work on yourself, Venus.  That said, she does at least tone it back to a vote against Soda, something Charlie and Maria are much more likely to go with.  They confer on the beach, Charlie noting that he’s weirdly safe.  Not sure how much of that is due to his effort as much as Nami being a hot mess, but still, good for him.  

As our targets for this group are now firmly set on either Soda or Venus, time to discuss what the best move is.  Clearly, between these two, it’s Soda.  She’s the more subtle player, and Venus’ presence will continue to make Nami at least seem more fractured (if not actually be more fractured), thus making them seem less threatening.  Further, Venus has so buried herself socially she’s unlikely to win many jury votes, and isn’t much of a challenge threat.  If she gets to the end, well, easier victory for you.  Might as well chop Soda off now.  Not to mention that Venus, if the first juror unanimously, will likely poison the jury against all of you.  Yeah, clearly go for Soda.  

In regards to our other group, there is dissension amongst the ranks.  Kenzie, admittedly, is happy with going for Tim, since her and Ben kind of vibe.  Tiffany less so.  That said, props to Ben for catching that Kenzie was not being 100% up front with him.  I thought Kenzie lied pretty effectively there, but he sussed it right out.  

Tim pitches Hunter to the group, who agree to split votes, but Q turns it on Tim as soon as he leaves.  Tiffany agrees with this, correctly noting that Nami is easy to break up, while Siga is less so.  However, Ben comes across as slightly sketchy when Q talks to him, leading to Q turning it back on Ben.  This makes Tiffany happy, but not Kenzie, especially since Q seems to waffle back and forth, and doesn’t let them get much of a word in edgewise.  

This leads to the promised pair discussing Q “running the show”, and predictably, the preview played this up.  Don’t misunderstand, there is a legit issue between them and Q, but it was built up to go somewhere tonight.  Had Charlie been in this group I might have bought it, but no.  Instead, they just note that Q is a bit inflexible, and also a bit prone to changing his mind.  All fair criticisms.  I might sum it up in that Q is a very binary player.  You’re either fully in agreement with him, or fully disagree with him.  Not much room for nuance in the world of Q.  On the one hand, if you’re truly his ally, this can be a great thing!  After all, as long as you don’t piss him off, you can guarantee he’ll stick with you.  That said, as we saw with Ben, staying on his good side is not so easy.  It’s not clear what exactly Ben did to turn Q against him from their conversation, but it flipped Q’s mind completely.  That can be a problem, so it’s understandable that they would consider moving against him.  But, as they note, it’s probably too early.  

With Hunter not much in contention, the debate is between Tim and Ben, and once again the answer of who should go is clear.  Ben is a social threat no one there apart from Tim has really connected with.  Tim is a much more predictable player, and keeping him around prevents the “Journey 6”, which Q at least is pushing hard, from fracturing.  Ben is the clear better choice here.  

We’re also left with little doubt that Ben will go, since he gets all the emotional content at Tribal.  He goes over his panic attack again, and everyone gives him sympathy, while also noting there are human moments outside the game.  Q, for his part, is also courteous, giving Kenzie major props for winning immunity.  The real star of the show, however, is Kenzie’s giant bow buff.  An hour after the episode aired, and I still love that thing.  

For as much as I hate the “Split Tribal” twist at this juncture, the show got a good draw here.  You can have the emotional climax first with this group, then the strategic one with the next.  Not intentional on their part, obviously, but a good way to balance it out, and not feel like we’re waiting for one group or the other to go.  Going to commercial in the middle before an obvious boot like this is a bit much, but hey, the other group has enough mystery to keep us happy regardless.  

Yet, once again, the show gets me.  Tim goes, which I absolutely DID NOT expect.  Good trick, editors.  The bad decision for basically everyone but Kenzie, but definitely an audience blindside.  That said, from a character standpoint, much the better decision.  Ben may not do it for me as a character, but he’s more interesting than Tim, who basically brought nothing.  Seems like a nice enough guy, but just not good tv, sadly.  I will, however, give Hunter some praise for not playing his idol.  Granted, he probably had a lot of trust in what Q was saying, so it’s not the weirdest decision ever, but still, he had valid reasons to believe he would be targeted.  Good on him for saving his idol.  

As mentioned, our second Tribal Council is the strategic climax of the episode.  Logically, this makes for less exciting banter at Tribal, with it being mostly the stuff you’d expect.  Charlie bringing up his Shot in the Dark.  Venus and Soda bringing up the tribe divisions.  We do get a couple of unusual moments, like Liz catching flak for not bringing her bag.  I do have to deduct points on Maria, however, for using a metaphor where one wasn’t asked for.  Don’t encourage Probst, Maria.  

Oddly, despite this being the more unpredictable vote, it’s also the more underwhelming one.  The group does the smart thing and votes Soda out.  She’s a bit teary about the whole thing, but thankfully she at least gets to sit on the jury.  I’m not the biggest fan of Venus, but I am glad she stayed, if only for the drama she brings.  If Ponderosa videos were still a thing, I’d want her on the jury as early as possible, but as is?  I’m fine with this.  

For the episode as a whole, it weirdly fails kind of in spite of itself.  The humor was on point, the editing top-notch.  We had good mystery, and a lot of good character bits.  Yet I confess myself, underwhelmed.  I don’t hate this episode, but it just kind of came and went with little fanfare for me.  I think it’s just a victim of how much had to be stuffed in.  With this many people, and two Tribal Councils, it just feels bloated.  The superiority of the previous factors helps make up for it, but there’s only so much you can do with this format.  Yet another reason to vary things up, show.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 2: I Wanna Dance With Somebody…

If you’re at all familiar with the song referenced in the title, you doubtless sung the title in tune.  And that song is now stuck inside your head for the foreseeable future!  My grand master evil plan is now complete!  MWAHAHAHA!

More unpleasant than an earworm, however, is this!  Yes, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

For once, just a small thing, and in a two-hour premiere, it’s understandable.  However, as it will have bearing on something else this episode, it bears mentioning.  We joke in the community about how Probst is so overdramatic about taking the flint, and how it doesn’t really matter that much if you get fire early.  Partly this is us being snarky, but it’s also partly because deprivation doesn’t come across well on-screen.  Last episode, however, gave us a brief, but poignant, demonstration of that deprivation.  No matter how tired, most tribes give their all in a challenge, right?  Well, it’s brief, but in the overhead shot at the start of the first immunity challenge, while most people run, we see some of Yanu, specifically Jess, WALK!  Sure, she eventually runs, but it really does take away from the epicness of this first challenge to get off to a walking start.  And, as I say, it will have some bearing on my opinion on how this episode goes.  

Speaking of this episode, given that we had a unified vote against the first boot, there is no drama, and thus no scene of Yanu getting back to camp.  Instead, we cut to the next day, with Bhanu chanting and meditating to re-center himself.  He admits that voting people out is stressful, and needs his tribe to come together and win, especially since he perceives himself (not incorrectly) to be on the outs.  The rest of the tribe, while open to Bhanu, is more realistic about their situation.  They’re not downers per se, but they give a realistic assessment that they’re in tough shape, particularly after Bhanu and Kenzie fail to make fire.  Gotta admit, it’s a nice change of pace from the sometimes forced positivity of the modern era of “Survivor”.  Had they gone full Debbie Downer, that probably would have been annoying as well, but a nice, human reaction is good to see.  Kenzie even goes and has a cry at an archway just past the Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM).  She consoles herself that at least her eyes look really blue after she cries, which… Yeah, they do.  Good on her for finding the bright side in all this.  

Life is much happier over at Nami, with Tevin busting out his best Jeff Probst impression, describing difficult challenges (such as finding a screw in an underwater stack of nails, purely by touch) for disappointing rewards (such as “air”).  It’s fine.  Look, I’m probably being too harsh.  The impression is at least decent, if not good.  I just feel like Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) has set the bar for Probst impressions so high no one can compete, no matter how talented.  The over-the-top challenges and underwhelming rewards were hilarious, though.  

Tevin reminds us that he’s relying on his social game, even getting along with Randen, who if you’ll recall from last episode was not doing so great socially.  Tevin actually says that Venus is the one person he can’t stand.  This is a sentiment Soda agrees with too his face, though privately she admits she has a bond with Venus.  That said, the numbers aren’t there to save Venus, so Soda admits to distancing herself, something we see when she puts off having a strategic meeting with Venus.  

Venus, not being blind, recognizes this.  She’ll do something about it later, but for now, uses the situation to talk about the story of her parents immigrating from Iran, and how she won’t give up, since they gave so much to get her a better life.  These “flashback” scenes are divisive amongst the fandom, and I’ve been more lenient on them than most.  That said, for me, for a flashback to work, the drama has to be A) Real drama, and not just the show trying to force drama, and B) Relevant to what’s being talked about on screen.  So, where does Venus’ fall?  Eh, kind of average, to ge honest.  It’s a decently dramatic story, and a tough emotional time is KIND OF a connection to it, but it’s not the strongest tie or the strongest story, since Venus herself was a young child when it happened.  Nice to know more about her beyond people thinking she’s a “princess”, however.  

Here we get our intro for the season, and I’m happy to see it back.  I was worried about its absence the first episode, but evidently they just wanted to give us time to bond with the new cast, and needed the extra minute or so, which I can understand.  And hey, even though it’s a remix of old themes, the music’s pretty good too!

Fire is on the agenda over at Siga, with Ben in particular insisting on being the one to make it.  He does so and everyone gives a cheer.  This cues Ben to talk about HIS backstory, overcoming a lisp and general shyness to become a musician.  Yeah, this one works less than Venus’.  I can sympathize with overcoming bullying, but the triumph of that and the triumph of making fire with flint is a tenuous connection under the best of circumstances. Ben gives his tribemates some nicknames, which are decent, but not as iconic as, say, the “Stealth ‘R Us” ones from “Survivor Caramoan”.  “Jungle Jem” is about the only one that stands out, and that’s mostly due to Ben’s over-explaining the pun.  

Not to say that there isn’t ANYTHING of value to be gleaned at Siga.  Charlie takes us through the alliances again, noting that he’s in the middle between the “Men’s Alliance” and “Charlie’s Angels” (Charlie+the women of the tribe).  The former alliance wants to bring in Maria as their fourth, due to her extra vote (also probably because of her thing with Tim from the previous episode), and Charlie’s generally on board with that.  While he’s still playing the middle unimpeded, he notes (correctly) that he’d be on the bottom of the women if he went with them, but has more room to maneuver sticking with the men, which seems like a fair assessment.  He explains that he doesn’t want to be led, but wants to get into a “waltz” with someone, thereby making titling this blog incredibly easy.  That someone turns out to be Maria, as the presumed other swing vote between these two groups.  The pair agree to go “Malcolm and Denise” (“Survivor Philippines”) together, which I suppose is a decent comparison, since it’s an older woman (by the standards of this show) and a younger guy working together, though Charlie is no Malcolm in terms of challenge ability.  Still, he’s a better fit that Adam Klein was when he made the comparison on “Survivor Winners at War”, and that was with the ACTUAL Denise.  Our NEW Malcolm and Denise seem to be leaning towards the men for their strength, but for now, where they’ll vote is still up in the air.  

After commercial, we’re back at Nami.  After Liz talks about money again, and how it makes it difficult to find a new husband, we get to actual strategy.  Venus has decided to do something about her situation, and that something is a renewed idol hunt.  I will push back a little bit on Venus doing this in lieu of trying to forge one new social bonds, but given some stuff we’ll see later, it seems like that door is largely closed at this point.  Unfortunately for her, she’s not the only one hunting.  Hunter reminds us that he’s in this game too, and is furiously searching while looking for firewood.  He even uses the correct meta of poking around significant-looking trees!  

Meta does not win the day, however.  It’s Randen, our third hunter, who ends up picking up the Beware Advantage.  It is indeed in a tree, though credit where’s it due, it was tough to find.  No colored string to give it away (or if there was, very close to tree color), so it blended it well with the trunk.  Similar to Tiffany’s last episode, it tells him to dig beneath where he found it.  He finds a box, only to be told, again like Tiffany, that his tribe needs to lose a challenge to get his next clue.  Unlike Tiffany, this is actually an issue for Randen.  Contrary to my pre-season predictions, Nami is quickly turning out to be the tribe that succeeds the most, so if he wants that idol, he’s probably going to have to convince his tribe to throw a challenge.  

In order to do that, Randen is going to need some allies.  People with influence.  People with power.  People who can shift the tribe dynamics in his favor, while still being subtle about it.  

Randen talks to Venus, with the pair agreeing to work together.  I have no idea why.  Venus frankly seems like the LAST person you’d want to share this information with, since she can leverage it against you easily, and can’t really help you much at all, but that’s what he does.  For her part, Venus takes the alliance, but in fairness, it’s pretty much the only one she’s been offered, so I don’t really blame her.  

With Yanu, well, we’ve seen that Bhanu’s emotions are a bit off-putting for his tribe, time to see what JESS is doing to keep her on the outs.  In this case, it’s eating some ants crawling up a palm frond.  Honestly, don’t get why her team is giving her such a hard time about this?  Yeah, it’s not MUCH protein, but it’s something, and given the minimal effort she needs to acquire it.  Granted, cooking a worm is a bit of a weird suggestion, but more so for the “cooking” part than the “eating the worm” part.  Worms are so small, cooking one doesn’t seem worth it.  

Jess does, however, realize she needs to open up a bit more, and so socializes with Bhanu.  She talks about how she met her husband, and teaches the group a bit of Chinese, Q chiming in that he knows it from “Rush Hour”, which gets a laugh out of most present.  This socializing leads Kenzie to further socialize as well, this time with Jess and Bhanu.  After taking them out to visit the archway past the Matthew Grinstead-Mayle Injury Rock (TM), she floats the idea of taking out Q to them, due to being a threat down the road.  The pair give fairly standard responses, though Jess is more wishy-washy, saying she needs to figure out what she thinks.  Kenzie correctly reads that the two are not really open to working with her right now, and so reaffirms her commitment to getting rid of Jess.  Behind her back, however, in a clever bit of sign language, Jess signals to Bhanu that they should try to target Kenzie.  

This may be an easier sell than they think.  Q has also noticed Kenzie’s socialization, and begins to worry, not unfairly, that Kenzie wants to be Tiffany’s tight ally, when he and Tiffany are already tight, thus putting him at risk.  Will he actually act on this?  Time will tell.   

Before our challenge, there’s a brief interlude at Siga again.  Charlie notes that he’s not the most social guy, so any nerdy interest he can use as a connection is welcome.  Today, that interest is music, as he and Ben get into a battle of who can name the most songs from a given artist/band.  Ben chooses Metallica, while Charlie, naturally, goes Taylor Swift.  Somewhere, Hunter just got really uncomfortable, and doesn’t know why.  It’s a decently fun back and forth, with the editors kindly keeping a tally as each names a song.  Charlie emerges victorious at 107, though the number of songs both could name was impressive.  A decently fun scene, but not one really necessary to the show.  I’m generally in favor of those, but when you make your episode two hours long, and it isn’t the premiere, I expect you to have something useful to fill that time.  This was entertaining, but not much else, and the highlight was less the duel itself, and Tim’s confessional about it.  I don’t know, it amused me.  Gave off strong “How do you do, fellow kids?” vibes based off his tone.  

Our challenge today is a combination of “Dragging the Dragons” from “Survivor Cagayan”, and that word/arch puzzle from “Survivor 45”, scaled up.  One tribe member unties a machete and cuts down wheels for a cart.  Tribes then dig up boxes containing puzzle pieces which they transport to the end, then solve said puzzle.  First two tribes to finish win immunity and varying amounts of fishing gear.  Nothing much else to write home about; bog-standard challenge.  

More interesting in the pre-challenge banter.  Everyone else seems shocked to see Jelinsky voted out, which, given that most of his failings were in personal interactions, I can understand their shock.  Only Maria and Tevin should maybe not be shocked, since they got to see him fold so quickly, but since we don’t see them specifically react, maybe they didn’t.  There’s also some good trash talk between Q and Soda, which does a nice job straddling the line between fun and mean.  It helps that both give as well as they receive, implying they understand it’s all just talk.  Then, to top it all off, Probst busts out the knife from “Survivor 45” again, using it to cut off a fake Buff Nami added to their idol.  Nice touch.  Glad to see the knife come back.  

Sadly, this is where the good points here end.  This episode, I’m sad to say, has done a poor job implying anyone but Yanu will be going to Tribal Council tonight.  We’ve had at least a BIT of strategy form all sides, but Yanu very clearly got the bulk of it, as well as the most targets.  Randen finding the idol, and thereby being incentivized to throw the challenge.  However, if there was any chance that would happen, it would be played up more.  No, Yanu has lost this, no matter what happens.  

Instead, let us focus on our sit-outs.  Liz for Nami, Moriah for Siga.  Both logical choices, and they don’t take their time on the benches to strategize.  They do make small talk however, and, in  Liz’s case, annoying cheer on her tribe.  I get that you want to pump up your team and all, but do it in a less obnoxious way, ok?  

Sure enough, Yanu loses, though to their credit, they keep it close, and there’s a lot of back and forth.  All tribes have trouble getting the archway built, and while they still come in first, Nami has a false finish when they get their arch set up, only to discover that they misspelled the puzzle solution (“persistence”).  Tiffany is so mad about this that she can’t even talk, lest others potentially look at her sideways.  

Since she needs some time, let’s check in with Nami.  Yep, still riding the high after that win, trying out their new fishing gear.  Tevin even brings us a Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) reference, which I’m kind of surprised we’re still getting in 2024.  Dude’s still iconic, I guess.  

The only real downer here is Venus, though this time, I’d say she has good reason.  During the challenge, she asked the team to turn the cart a bit, since it was going to run over her foot.  They did not, and now her toe is hurt.  Everyone we see, from Tevin to Soda, dismisses this as whining.  Look, I get that you don’t like Venus, but that doesn’t mean EVERYTHING she does is to be annoying!  I’m 100% on her side here!  That’s not cool to just ignore your tribunate to the point they get injured!  Frankly, I’m amazed Venus is a collected as she is about it.  Another brush-off from Soda even gets Venus to realize she’s against her, also noting that Soda keeps grabbing the idol from her after Probst hands it over.  Nothing she can do about it now, since no one here is a dumb as the men’s Manono tribe from “Survivor One World”, but, as Telltale Games would say, “Venus will remember that…”

Evidently we didn’t give Tiffany enough time, since she’s still upset once we check back in with Yanu.  She worries about how she’ll be seen, not so much by her own tribe, but by the other tribes.  She notes the perils of showing frustration as a black woman in society, not wanting to come across as the “angry black woman”, but also understandably stressed at needing to keep an eye on herself every day as a result.  It’s honestly really open and touching, and I applaud Tiffany for being so vulnerable.  See, show?  THIS is how you get us to connect with your players as people!  And you’ll note you didn’t even need a flashback for it.  

Kenzie, seeming to not quite read the room, tries to redirect Tiffany to talk about strategy.  The pair do settle on Jess as the target for weakness in challenges.  I’d say it’s lack of cohesion that cost you this last challenge, but for the first one?  Yeah, between walking at the start and being on the puzzle, you could argue Jess is the weak link challenge-wise.  Plus, outside the alliance, not giving you much in terms of strategy, her target makes sense.  

Still, Jess has the possibility of using her Shot in the Dark, and Kenzie and Tiffany would like to prevent that.  As such, they’ve made a fake idol, and hidden it where the real idol was.  Tiffany, in some of the worst acting this episode, coaxes Jess into an idol hunt.  She and Kenzie then get frustrated when Jess walks right past the idol, instead following the interesting-looking-trees meta.  They verbally berate her over and over in confessional for this, which is not a good look for them.  I may enjoy Tiffany and Kenzie more as strategists, but they’re REALLY laying into Jess here for stuff that I’d say is fairly reasonable.  Criticize her for being slow to start playing, but missing an idol?  Your bad acting job would be enough to kill her enthusiasm (since she could suspect a plant), and trees are a perfectly valid place to hunt for idols.  You may be the better players, but Jess comes out looking nicer than the two of you in this scene.  

Plan B, since they need Jess to have the idol, is to have Q give it to her.  He does so, urging her to vote Kenzie with him and Bhanu.  Yes, this is our misdirection for the episode.  Q notes that while he is lying to Jess, she and Bhanu would be votes for him, while Kenzie might not be.  And it would be SO EASY to just really flip the vote on Kenzie instead.  Hmm…

Our next scene is… MORE OF THE SAME!  Yeah, this is where the two hour run time starts to feel stretched.  The majority of this scene is just reiterating the strategy I just described, and could easily have been condensed.  Don’t get me wrong, more “Survivor” is usually a good thing, and I think 90 minutes is the sweet spot for a regular episode like this.  But two hours?  If you don’t have enough things to fill those two hours, make some hard cuts and go back to 90 minutes.  I like the song battle at Siga, but we didn’t need it, and we could have condensed these two strategic scenes to one.  Trim some stuff here and there, and this episode could easily fit a 90 minute run time.  

That said, there are two new bits added here.  Could have just had them in the last scene to save time, but they’re good stuff nonetheless.  Say what you will about Jess, she actually has the brains to CONSIDER that the idol being given might be a fake, noting its similarity to the items on their torches.  Granted, most idols look like that nowadays, but still, a good train of thought to follow.  I feel like the plan might be rumbled when Q gets oddly defensive about the idol, but partly because she has little other choice, she seems satisfied.  

The other new bit comes when Bhanu begins to get paranoid, and he, Q, and Jess discuss the Kenzie plan.  We learn that Q doing this plan is conditional upon Tiffany coming with him.  This makes sense.  There’s pros and cons to getting out both Jess and Kenzie for Q, and no real bad option for him.  Either way, to prevent potentially being blindsided next episode, his best bet is to keep Tiffany as tight as possible, as she’d likely be needed for any next move.  Voting out Kenzie without her would piss her off, and so he’d either have to sacrifice her as well (a tough call this early in the game), or end up voted out himself if Bhanu and Jess were to flip.  He floats the idea of getting rid of Kenzie to her, and she seems at least open to the possibility, but privately says she wants Jess gone, since she wanted her gone last episode anyway.  As such, sticking with Jess is probably Q’s best plan.  Plus, even if Jess isn’t more of a challenge sink than Kenzie (and to be fair, while we haven’t seen Kenzie struggle, she doesn’t seem to be a challenge beast either), Kenzie at least seems motivated, something you’ll need to win given the resources of the other tribes, and that alone is a reason to keep her over Jess.  

While not one for the history books, Tribal Council is a fun, above-average affair, at least by the standards of the modern era.  Jess tries and fails to double-talk miserably, leading Kenzie to call out that she intentionally didn’t talk strategy with Jess that day.  Bhanu, however, is the star of the show.  He goes off on a rant about his emotions in the game, leading to a great wide-eyed expression from Q.  Probst then points out that Bhanu has a hard time hiding the target, something Q also calls him out on, and says would be a liability come the merge.  Bhanu defends himself, but poorly, leading to him asking basically everyone but Kenzie what to do.  Q is the only one to give him a straight answer, telling him to “Stick to the plan”, a la Keith Sale (RIP) of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”.  Then, to top it off, we find that the theme of this season is “People telling Jeff ‘It’s time to vote’” since Q says it where Bhanu said it last time.  All set to pretty epic music.  Good stuff all around.  

There’s decent mystery as to where the vote will go, at least at first.  As soon as Jess plays the fake idol, however, we know she’s done.  If Q really wanted to use her vote, he would have told her not to play it.  After all, Probst will have to confirm it’s a fake, meaning he loses her trust, at least partially, if she stays.  Wisely, he lets her go, and I can’t say I’m too sorry.  Jess seems like a nice person, but she was too slow in playing the game (which she herself admits in her final words), and just didn’t pop on screen.  Sadly probably going to be the forgotten player of this season.  Still, she’s a good sport, slapping Q playfully on the knee when Probst declares the idol a fake.  We respect good sportsmanship around here.  

Yeah, sad to say, this episode was a downgrade.  Not terrible, but it really felt like it stretched to meet the time.  While entertaining, the strategy was simpler than last episode, and misdirection weak at best.  A fine enough episode, but this show can do much better as well.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Cast Assessment

Folks, I have an important announcement to make: Not only do we have the newly-officially-released cast of “Survivor 46” to discuss today, but the production team have also given us a rare peak behind the curtain.  A glimpse at the inner workings.  We now know the key factor it takes to get cast on this show.  The answer is: Be a gutsy idiot.  

Yes, do you value stability in your life?  Do you feel like taking the safe route when it comes to your personal finances?  Good for you, but get out of the applicant pool!  We only want people who throw away something they’ve worked toward on a wing and a prayer here!

I mock, I mock, but I do so out of love.  Honestly, good for all the people on the cast who did this.  Clearly if worked out for them, and if they’re happy (and not harming anyone in the process), then power to them, I say.  And certainly “Survivor” is no stranger to casting people like this; the list of people who’d taken major risks like this in their personal lives is innumerable for this show.  But this season really feels like they amped that up, or at least put emphasis on it.  Nearly everyone in their bio talks about changing their job to follow their passion.  Again, fair enough for them, but a bit on-the-nose as far as casting goes. Now then, snark out of the way, onto the assessment itself, starting with:

Jemila “Jem” Hussain-Adams (32, International Brand Mentor, Chicago, IL, Siga Tribe): I personally am not a fan of doing such things myself, but were I to ask an AI to write me up a “Generic Survivor Contestant Biography”, I feel like Jem’s is what it would give me.  Someone fun-loving and social.  Says they’re not interested in something if it’s not risky.  Did a fair number of extreme outdoor activities.  Lists as similar players “Boston Rob, Tony Vlachos, Kelley Wentworth”, aka “The relatively famous players most people will know by now.”  Very much gives the impression of someone semi-familiar with the show, but not a superfan.  I know this is making out Jem as someone who’s kind of bland and can’t hack it, but sometimes this stuff is all you need.  Hence, we are getting my first winner pick of the season out of the way early.  Jem does have a few specific things going for her related to her bio/photo.  She grew up in Berbice, Guyana, and her discussion of it implies that she spent at least part of her adult life there. Thus, she might be more used to the tropical climate of Fiji than we might otherwise credit her.  Based on the photo, she doesn’t look like she’ll be a challenge liability, which is always a plus.  But really, I’d say her biggest upside is that she doesn’t seem to have a major weakness.  For all the comparisons she makes, I’d compare her to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” winner Michele Fitzgerald the most.  Specifically, it’s not that she stands out, or does anything spectacularly well, but that she does nothing badly.  She’s not a challenge beast, but not weak enough to be taken out specifically for that.  She’s not a shy introvert, but not a loud, over-the-top personality either.  This season doesn’t skew quite as young as other recent ones, but has a lot of people in their “late 20’s, early 30’s”, and Jem slots right in that demographic nicely.  She’s not a game-bot, but she knows the strategy well enough to get by.  And sometimes, getting by is all you need.  Honestly, the biggest weakness of this type of game is that it can falter if the team goes to a lot of early Tribal Councils, but while there is no “disaster tribe” this season, based on the rumored divisions, there is a “strong tribe” of the season, and I see Siga rarely, if ever, going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  This gives Jem all the time she needs to integrate, and by the time of the merge, there’s bigger fish to fry.  Expect her to unexpectedly sneak to the end, only to give a banger performance at Final Tribal Council, and then sweep up far more votes than those with her would have expected.  

Ben Katzman (31, Musician, Miami, FL, Siga Tribe): Ben compares himself to Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Cody Assenmacher (“Survivor 43”), but like with Jem, I think he misses the mark on the true comparison.  If there is a second coming of Vince Sly of “Survivor World’s Apart”, it’s this guy.  You all remember Vince, right?  The “Coconut Vendor who Seeks Truth”.  Yeah, that over-the-top character.  The beachy guy who quit a job (in this case, more professional music production) to follow his dream (in this case, just making the music he wants). Transplant Vince from the west coast to the east, and you’ve basically got Ben.  Luckily for Ben, he seems like enough of a challenge asset that, in the unlikely event that his tribe goes to Tribal Council pre-merge, he won’t be a target despite his potentially grating personality.  That said, don’t expect him to get too far.  That personality can get old fast, and while he might survive mergeatory, don’t expect him to get much past that.  An early-merge boot due to just being difficult to live with, and if there’s another “split tribal right after the merge”, I’d say that’s where his game runs out.  

Jessica “Jess” Chong (37, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Yanu Tribe): I feel for Jess, I really do.  She seems very nice, and not quite as over-the-top in the whole “career change” thing as others this season (yes, she did change jobs, but she stayed in her field, just working for herself rather than a corporation).  She even has good self knowledge, comparing herself to Tai (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), Gabby (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), and Maryanne (“Survivor 42”).  All players I quite like.  However, despite all their good track records, they are not necessarily the formula for success on “Survivor”.  Aside from there only being one winner out of the three, this is a personality than can be hard to live with, particularly on small tribes, and unfortunately, Jess doesn’t have the luxury of being on the tribe unlikely to go to Tribal Council.  Honestly, I think her time in the game is largely going to depend on how well she individually does at challenges.  I don’t think she’s first out of her tribe either way, but if they go on a losing streak, she’s an easy pre-merge casualty.  If she only attends one or two pre-merge Tribal Councils, and doesn’t cost her tribe any challenges, then she probably makes a deep late-merge run.  Kind of a wishy-washy answer, I know.  If you put my feet to the fire, and force me to pick one, I’d sadly have to say that Jess is probably a pre-merge boot, though less due to her own faults, and more due to some people just needing to go there, and there not being a lot of obvious pre-merge fodder amongst this cast compared to some other recent ones I could name.  

Bhanu Gopal (41, IT Quality Analyst, Acton, MA, Yanu Tribe): So remember how I just said it was difficult to figure out who the pre-merge boots were this season?  Well, that goes double for predicting the first boot.  Seriously, this is the hardest time I’ve had selecting someone to be the first boot in these predictions.  Usually SOMEONE jumps out, or gives off that vibe, but this season?  I can only rely on the data, and sadly, Bhanu has a lot of data points working against him, in my view.  I’ll credit him that he’s one of the few who DOESN’T mention upending his career in his biography, which I would say would lead to more stable, consistent gameplay, normally a good thing.  But this career upending is SO pervasive this season, that I’m not sure that style of play is going to work.  In fact, it might work against Bhanu here, since his philosophy on life is so different from most of the rest of the cast.  Again, it could work given time, but time is not something I feel comfortable saying this tribe has.  Add on him comparing himself to Cochran of “Survivor South Pacific” and “Survivor Caramoan” (someone most vulnerable in the early game), and describing himself as an introvert (thus needing more time to build the relationships he’d need to survive), and there’s just a lot working against the guy.  While this is a slightly older cast on average than previous ones, 41 is still a bit outside the average.  I don’t think age will be a major factor, but if his age shows in his challenge performance, then he’s an easy early pick to go.  To me, he doesn’t look like he’ll be a challenge liability, but then again, I thought Brandon on “Survivor 45” would be good in challenges, so we see how good I am at eyeballing that particular game aspect.  Reluctantly, I must make Bhanu my pick for first boot, as he just has too much against him.  I hope I’m wrong, however.  

Kenzie Petty (29, Salon Owner, Charlotte, NC, Yanu Tribe): Kenzie quickly won her way into my heart by being an avowed “Settlers of Catan” fan.  Now, winning your way to my heart won’t necessarily make me give you good odds at going deep in the game, but even taking my feelings out of it as much as possible, I give Kenzie decent odds.  Again, bearing in mind my previous comments about me not being good at picking who’s going to be good in challenges, Kenzie seems like she at least won’t be a liability.  While she is loud and a stand-out, both in personality and looks, it’s not so much so that it would strike me as grating, and I see there being more valuable targets to take out on Yanu.  Unless they go full disaster (which, despite my earlier comments, I have my doubts), Kenzie probably sticks around for a good bit.  Kenzie also does a good job balancing the free-spiritedness of the cast as a whole with practicality, since her “job story” is less about leaving a job for another one than it is not doing as much pre-planning when seizing an opportunity presented.  Like I said before, I’d normally consider such a jump a liability, but with this cast, it should vibe well, and comes across to me as less inherently risky.  As long as she has some good game sense, Kenzie should stick around until the mid-to-late merge.  Honestly, the fact that she DOES stand out in a couple of aspects is the only thing stopping me from making her a winner pick.  

Charlie Davis (26, Law Student, Boston, MA, Siga Tribe): Charlie is a nerd through-and-through, and wears it on his sleeve.  Don’t believe me?  He compares himself to Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  If only he had thrown in Cochran, he’d have hit the “nerd” trifecta.  Self-knowledge is a good thing for sure, and the upside for Charlie is that he’s on the tribe I don’t see visiting Tribal Council much, if at all.  Prove yourself in a puzzle or two, and you’re probably set for the merge.  The downside for Charlie is that, with his nerd-dom on his sleeve, everyone else can see it too.  With “Survivor 44” and Carson being particularly fresh in everyone’s minds for this season, I doubt anyone is going to let him get super-close to the end.  Hence, Charlie is probably an easy target in the early-merge, and goes somewhere in there.  Not much more to say about him than that.  Nice guy, but an archetype we know well, and fairly predictable in how he’ll do as a result.  

Liz Wilcox (35, Marketing Strategist, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): Yes, lest you thought “Survivor” was going to shake things up, there are still three tribes this season.  It just took us until Liz to actually talk about someone from Nami.  And as the first representative of her tribe… Liz isn’t the best.  She looks like another fun nerd, though she compares herself to Russell (presumably Hantz of “Survivor Samoa”) and Sandra (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), neither of which seem like a fit for her from how she describes herself.  Neither of them strike me as “Fun-seeking” or “Growth-minded”.  Also don’t know if she’s just not a big fan of the show and has thus only heard of some of the bigger names, or just really loves “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Either is plausible, quite frankly.  Liz has a great story about overcoming a fear of public speaking and general social awkwardness.  Great for her, and while it means she probably has good social skills that she’s learned, one tends to revert to one’s personal habits in a deprivation situation, so I could see those not being as honed as Liz normally has them.  If she does do that, she’s in trouble.  Any sort of social awkwardness is a reason to get someone out, and Liz is also one of the few challenge sinks I see on this season, so I don’t see much reason to keep her around if they attend Tribal Council at all.  I don’t think she’s the very first boot, but definitely another pre-merger.  And we will be all the sadder for it.  

David “Jelinsky” Jelinsky (22, Slot Machine Salesman, Las Vegas, NV, Yanu Tribe): In the contest of “Who did the craziest/riskiest thing with their life this season”, I think I have to give the award to Jelinsky here.  While lots of other people changed careers, or up-sticks and moved without much of a plan, Jelinsky outright dropped out of high school.  Folks who wanted non-college-educated people on the show, you got your wish.  Jelinsky does have several things working in his favor this season.  Chief amongst them is that he’s a young, athletic guy on a season without a lot of those.  Pre-merge, at least, that makes him valuable, especially since he’s on a tribe with a bit of a dearth of strength.  A career in sales, as we’ve seen with several recent contestants, can be good preparation for the show.  And amongst his contestant comparisons, he lists a number of players who saw success with “playing dumb”, something that, between the looks he has and the skill set he has, is a pretty good strategy for him to take up.  That said, Jelinsky does also have a few red flags that seriously hurt his chances in the game.  The big one is age.  Like I said, this season skews slightly older than more recent seasons have.  Now, early 20’s isn’t that far off from late 20’s, but it’s still a gap Jelinsky will have to bridge, and if he’s perceived as too much of a “kid”, a la Xander of “Survivor 41”, it may not matter how good of a game he plays, as no one on the jury will respect it.  Secondly, and this may be me reading too much into things, but Jelinsky strikes me as having a bit of an ego.  Maybe it’s his asking to be referred to by his last name, maybe it’s how he talks about himself in the third person, but this strikes me as a guy who won’t be quiet, and thus rub others the wrong way.  His strength being a necessary asset, plus his salesman skills, probably carry him through to the merge, but expect him to be the mergeatory or early merge boot, due to these red flags.  

Maria Shrime Gonzales (48, Parent Coach, Dallas, TX, Siga Tribe): Right away, the thing that stands out about Maria is her age.  This cast may not skew as young as more recent casts do, but even then, Maria is a bit without peer.  There’s a couple of other players in their 40’s, but it’s EARLY 40’s for them, meaning Maria’s closest peers in this game, by age, are still seven years apart.  Not an insurmountable gap, but one she’ll have to overcome.  On top of that, she seems less “free-spirited” than the rest of the cast, as she’s notably one of the few who didn’t mention upending their life to follow their dream.  She’s still driven and has values, of course, but she seems a bit more circumspect about going through it rather than just winging it and seeing what happens.  Add onto that her very much exuding the “mom” archetype, which has traditionally been a very “all or nothing” type in terms of how they do, and you’ve got a recipe for a player with high risk in the early game.  Luckily for Maria, she’s placed on Siga, the tribe I would say is least likely to attend a pre-merge Tribal Council.  IF they do, look for Maria to be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening. Historically, once the mom archetype makes the merge, they tend to do quite well, and I don’t anticipate Maria being an exception to that.  She seems to have enough game acumen and enough of a level head to play well.  As we saw last season, however, the finally hurdle for this archetype is getting past the “being too likable” issue, and I don’t see Maria avoiding that.  She’ll be taken out either in the finale or just before it as a jury threat, but still, expect a deep post-merge run from Maria.  Sometimes a good hand is all you need.  

Hunter McKnight (28, Science Teacher, French Camp, MS, Nami Tribe): I went back and forth between two people for whom I would give my second winner pick two, but ultimately, after much agonizing, I have settled on it being Hunter.  I don’t know, the dude reminds me of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and that means “winner energy” for me.  I don’t know, maybe it’s just them both being teachers, maybe it’s the reddish hair, but I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is not Tommy.  Hey, if you’re gonna remind me of a previous player, a skilled winner is hardly a bad one.  Not that Hunter’s personal pick for comparison is bad either.  He went with Hayden (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”), which I appreciate for being a bit of a deep cut into “Survivor” history at this point, but one with a decent strategic record (albeit no victory).  Hunter is also another one I’d say is more reasonable in dropping something in life to pursue a passion, since in Hunter’s case he dropped further study to go back and teach in his hometown.  Dropping out for an established, stable career, even one not as well-paying, speaks to a good bit of common sense that can serve him well in the game.  That said, it’s enough “free-spirited-ness” that it won’t be off-putting to the rest of his cast.  All in all, Hunter is a very well-rounded player, and thus one I expect to do quite well.  Granted, between my two picks, I would go with Jem over Hunter, only because I had to agonize more over his pick where Jem felt quite natural, but again, not knocking Hunter.  Dude’s got skills.  

Moriah Gaynor (28, Program Coordinator, San Diego, CA, Siga Tribe): Every tribe these days has to have their designated “nerd”, and Moriah is that for Siga (guess Saga gets two, since Charlie is also here).  That said, I Weill give her credit that she doesn’t wear it as much on her sleeve as the likes of, say, Liz or Charlie this season.  The neediness is there, but more subdued, only coming out in things like the occasional D&D reference.  Being low-key is hardly bad with such small numbers, and couple that with Moriah being on a tribe likely to win a lot of early challenges, she should be sticking around for quite a while, barring an epic challenge fail.  That said, there’s also not a lot to recommend Moriah overall.  Again, nothing bad, nothing detrimental.  But there just doesn’t seem to be that spark, that zest, that drive to go the extra mile to win that the truly spectacular players have.  This to my mind lends Moriah to a solid, but nondescript mid-merge finish.  A solid alliance member, but not a leader, and her exit will not be majorly mourned by most of the community.  

Q Burdette (29, Real Estate Agent, Memphis, TN, Yanu Tribe): Fun fact, this is the first given name in US “Survivor” to start with a Q.  This is also the other guy I was considering for my second winner pick.  In Q’s case, it’s less data based than Hunter’s was, and more about the vibes.  I dunno, some pictures just scream “charming” to me, and Q did just that.  He’s my personal favorite of the season, and despite a relatively bare-bones bio, I quite like him.  I can’t quite say it’s “generic” as there’s a few turns of phrase and bits of info here and there that catch the eye, but the dude seems to have put the minimum effort into what he wrote.  He also gave the lame answer of “Bits and pieces from a lot of players” when asked who he was most like.  That may very well be true, but still, a cop out in my book.  I could talk about the real estate skills being helpful on the show, but that has a bit less impressive a track record than regular sales that I talked about a bit ago, so I’m not sure how much it applies.  Still, Q is a dark horse to win based on charm alone, and I expect him to stick around until the late merge, if not making the finale.  Really, only his lack of concrete data to back up the vibes keeps him out of a proper winner pick.  

Soda Thompson (27, Special Ed. Teacher, Lake Hopatcong, NJ, Nami Tribe): Everyone, we now have a real-life Disney Princess on our season.  Seriously, her risk-taking moment is marrying a guy she hadn’t known for very long; the quintessential Disney Princess move!  Ok, in fairness to Soda, she knew this guy for a much more reasonable six months, and it appears to have worked out, so hey, power to them.  While Q just before may have had the lamest answer to “Which former player are you most like?”, Soda probably wins the award for the weirdest.  Her answer?  “Survivor 42”.  No player, just the season.  What, so you’re like the entire cast rolled into one?  Those are some pretty disparate personalities you’re combining, then.  My take on this is that Soda, more so than anyone this season, doesn’t really know the show that well, and just conjured up a recent bit that she remembered.  This makes me question if she really knows the game at all, and if she can apply her skills where needed.  Look, I’m not going to act like foreknowledge of the game is a REQUIREMENT to do well.  The likes of Yul (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Earl (“Survivor Fiji”) are a testament that it’s not.  But couple that with Soda just seeming generally “nice” (she lists her hobbies as “Singing, taking walks, and doing random crafts”), and I have to think she doesn’t have the cutthroat hard core needed to make a deep run.  Add on her not looking like she’ll be great in challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Sorry, Soda.  You seem nice, but I don’t think the game is for you.  

Randen Montalvo (41, Aerospace Tech, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): I strongly, STRONGLY suggest that Randen focus on his military career when discussing what he does with his tribe, rather than mentioning the aerospace thing.  Again, this cast played fresh off the finale of “Survivor 44”, so they saw Carson dominate in puzzles, and nearly win, were it not for fire-making.  He mentions the word “aerospace” to this cast, and he’ll be out faster than a supersonic jet.  Luckily, I think Randen is smart enough to keep that under wraps.  Dude does not look like the sort of guy you’d expect to be an engineer, but if he’s smart enough to be one, he’s smart enough to downplay those smarts, if that makes sense.  Add in some good physicality on a tribe that’s probably going to badly need some physical power for the challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a decent length run.  Randen probably goes out somewhere in the mid-merge area, since I see enough fellow smart people on this season to suss him out, but early on, at least, he should be fine.  

Tiffany Nicole Ervin (33, Artist, Elizabeth, NJ, Yanu Tribe): Hoo boy.  Some people, their bio just SCREAMS “early boot”.  I can see why Tiffany was cast, though.  She’s a bright, bubbly personality, but that’s where the trouble starts.  Tiffany explains that her friends describe her as “living in a land of rainbows and unicorns”, though she disagrees.  Given her tone in her writing, however, I’m inclined to agree with her friends.  The sort of personality that pops on tv, but probably not the best fit for a treacherous game like “Survivor”.  On top of that, Tiffany admits she likes to play things risky, playing the lottery often in real life.  Again, understandable why that would do well on tv (big moves and all that), but probably not the smartest in terms of overall gameplay.  Unless her tribe has some MAJOR challenge sinks who need to go before her, expect her to go somewhere in the pre-merge.  Again, sorry Tiffany.  You seem nice, but “nice” doesn’t win “Survivor”.  

Tevin Davis (24, Actor, Richmond, VA, Nami Tribe): Fun fact about theater kids: We can sense each other a mile away.  You probably remember Tevin from the season preview.  He was the guy with long hair who screamed upon being given his buff.  I took one look at him and thought “theater kid”.  Sure enough, his bio comes out a few weeks later and confirms it.  Tevin is definitely a loud personality, which on a small tribe can be a problem.  That said, he’s also a young, fit guy on a season where, as mentioned previously, those are in short supply.  His tribe is going to need that, so expect Tevin to stick around for a decent length of time, barring that his tribe goes into being a complete disaster.  Tevin’s acting skills (as in toning down his loud personality) combined with his strength probably get him through to the merge, but there’s only so long you can tone down your personality. Once Tevin opens up, probably during the early merge, he’s going to get grating fast.  Combine that with the threat of an individual immunity run, and Tevin is probably out in the early-to-mid merge, due to being too threatening and too grating.  He will definitely stand out on our screens the whole time, however.  Also, this has literally no bearing on how he’ll do in the game, but I wanted to mention that while he’s currently from Richmond, VA, his hometown is listed as “Goochland, VA”, and childishly, I find that incredibly amusing.  

Venus Vafa (24, Data Analyst, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Nami Tribe): Just when you thought that “Survivor” would learn the threat that Canadian players pose, here comes Venus.  And as if there already wasn’t an uphill battle for Canadians on this show after multiple successful performances, you put on a Canadian who looks woefully unprepared for the game ahead!  Venus seems very worldly, aka “not going to do well in the outdoors”.  She seems like a city girl through and through, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does call into question how well she can hack it in the wilderness.  On top of that, when you compare yourself to a character from “Mean Girls”, that implies the starting of much drama.  Good for tv, bad for chances in the game, particularly with the smaller tribe size of the modern era.  That said, I will give Venus two points in her favor.  One is good self-knowledge, since she lists the players she’s most like as being Parvati (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Cirie (“Survivor Exile island”), who if you’re someone who’s not going to be the greatest in the outdoors, well, they pretty much wrote the playbook on how to do well in spite of that.  Assuming the comparison is apt 9which I get the sense it is) Venus does have some good social skills to call upon.  Also in her favor is that, while she’s by no means a challenge beast, she seems competent enough that I don’t see her costing her tribe a challenge, or being the first target if/when they do lose.  Unless she really makes a stink about how hard the elements are for her, I’d expect her to be a late pre-merge, early post-merge boot, depending on how much they do go to Tribal Council.  Not good enough to hack it long term, but at least good enough to survive a few votes.  

Tim Spicer (31, College Coach, Atlanta, GA, Siga Tribe): Rounding out our cast is Tim, who I would argue gives the most questionable answer to any of the bio questions in the entire cast.  Who does he say he’s most like as a player?  Shamar from “Survivor Caramoan”.  Now, as a super fan, I applaud the deep cut from “Survivor” history, and that may be the first time Shamar has gotten a mention since he initially played.  But, Tim, do you REMEMBER Shamar’s game?  Is that REALLY who you want to emulate?  Not exactly setting yourself up for success.  Now, in fairness to Tim, knowledge of game history is generally a good thing, and it MAY just be a bit of an inside joke, given that his previous answer involved an anecdote about gluing his eye shut.  But if it’s not, and Tim emulates his game style, then the only reason he isn’t a pre-merge boot is because his tribe seems unlikely to attend Tribal council in the pre-merge. Dude’s largely unremarkable outside of that one answer, and if the Shamar thing is just a joke, he’s a late-merge boot.  If it ISN’T a joke, he’s an early-merge boot.  Thus, in the spirit of compromise, I’ll split the difference and declare Tim a likely mid-merge boot.  

And that about wraps it up for this cast!  For all my jokes, honestly, this one seems kind of underwhelming.  Hardly an unlikeable cast, and with only one or two exceptions, I had something of substance to say about all of them.  But while I vibed with a couple of people, none of them also really grabbed me like other seasons have.  I doubt it’ll be a BAD season, and there’s always room for me to be proven wrong, but if you’re looking for this to be a legendary season, I’m not holding my breath.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 10: Cry Me A River

Not going to beat around the bush: This was a great episode.  It did a whole host of things really well, and these will be discussed as they come up.  That said, I don’t think anyone would disagree that the highlight of this episode is how well it conveyed the intense emotions on display.  The mirror neurons were a-firing full tilt.  Let’s discuss how they come up.  

A unified vote after Tribal Council means things are usually subdued, and that’s largely the case here.  That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to show, however.  Jake expresses relief, both that he survived once again, and that he “Has friends in the game”.  The former I get, but I feel like the latter is still overselling his game a bit.  MAYBE he can count Bruce as a friend, but everyone else is just keeping him around as fodder, not because they like him.  Drew inadvertently confirms this point in confessional, noting that the Reba 4 are still strong, and looking to get everyone else out (save possibly Emily).  Bruce in particular is their proverbial Moby Dick, and he needs to either win immunity or play his idol.  

Daylight brings the first of our emotions.  Julie had a particularly rough night for sleep, partially alleviated by a neck rub from Austin, but she’s still in a bit of a state.  The game is getting to her, not so much in terms of the brutal conditions (though those are obviously a factor), but in terms of how tough it is.  Julie is getting close with a bunch of people, and thus voting them out is tougher than she thought.  Moreover, she feels like people take it more personally when she votes them out, citing Kellie and Kendra as taking it hard.  This she blames on the “Mama J” level, as a betrayal from a mother feels more personal to people.  Ah, the curse of the “Mama” label, and why most players should try and avoid it like the plague.  There’s a double-standard to it.  If she plays a good strategic game, she betrayed her label, and gets few to no votes.  If she lives up to the label, she did nothing to get to the end of the game (in the eyes of the jury), and gets few to not votes.  

Still, Julie is not alone in this.  Evidently trying to course-correct from dialing up the “douchebag” levels last episode, Drew sympathizes, and has a good cry with her as well.  And not in.a performative way either.  Dude comes across as genuine.  It’s a sweet moment, to say the least.  Julie ends by questioning how you can get close to people, and then vote them off.  

The answer to that comes in the form of Emily.  Wisely realizing that the Reba 4 are likely to stick together from her conversation with Drew and Austin last episode, Emily has gotten to talking to Bruce and Katurah about taking out one of said Reba 4.  A smart move on her part, since she needs to split them up sooner rather than later to have a chance at sitting at the end with those she can beat.  That said, can we take a moment to appreciate how much skill this must have taken?  Since the beginning of the seasons, one of the major storylines has been the “Katurah/Bruce Vendetta”.  If there’s one thing you can count on, it’s that the pair will not work together.  Yet here they are, talking strategy like anyone else, presumably because of Emily!  You know, the person who called out Bruce minute one?  Someone he was basically never going to listen to under most circumstances?  Is there anything this woman can’t do?  Besides math puzzles, I mean.

Emily does acknowledge that the major issue with trying to rally the underdogs to flip the game is that none of them chore together as a whole.  This point is inadvertently underscored when we see the next bit of conversation between Katurah and Bruce, sans Emily.  All this time, everyone, including the audience, has been under the assumption that Bruce has an idol to play, so will be safe no matter what.  But, in the era of flashbacks, nothing is certain!  Bruce, you see, was afraid of the “Knowledge is Power”, and so gave his idol to Kellie.  You know, the night she was voted out.  So yeah, dude’s in an even weaker position than before.  

The above is what I WOULD be saying, but having established that formula as a possibility, the editing team is now doing a brilliant job of subverting expectations.  You see, Bruce did NOT, in fact, do this.  His idol is still very much there, and everyone’s assumptions correct.  But Bruce wants people to THINK that’s what he did, so they’ll forgo splitting the votes and pile on him, thus allowing his idol to negate enough votes to get out a Reba.  He asks how his acting is, and I’d say it’s pretty good.  It certainly fools everyone he tells it to.  

Yes, overall, a decent plan.  But, since it’s Bruce who suggested it, Katurah hates it.  Ok, ok, I’m doing Katurah a disservice now.  She’s really more upset that Bruce lied to her in the first place, which is more understandable.  That said, Katurah, it doesn’t make the PLAN bad, it just makes Bruce bad at pitching it.  Really, I think Bruce’s mistake here was seeming to wait at least a little while between practicing the lie, then telling Katurah it was a lie.  I understand his logic of wanting her honest reaction, but if you’re going to do that, the very next sentence out of your mouth needs to be “Pretty good pitch, huh?” Or something similar.  Make it a “Letting someone in on it” thing, rather than “You’re a dummy I can test stuff on.” Thing.  Bob on “Survivor Gabon” is probably the model you want to use here.  When he came up with the “I have the idol Marcus threw in the ocean” lie, he DID practice on Corinne first, but also immediately told her about it, drawing her into the idea.  By waiting, even if just a couple of minutes, Bruce turns Katurah against the plan.  That said, Katurah doesn’t say anything about it to anyone else just yet, and the pitch to Jake seems to go well, so perhaps there’s a small chance for said plan yet.  

Off to our challenge, which is, you guessed it, obstacle course with a puzzle at the end!  How original.  At least it’s an individual challenge, for once, and the stakes are extremely high.  In addition to the turkey dinner (and I’m amazed that CBS didn’t rearrange their schedule to start the season earlier, so this episode could have aired the day before American Thanksgiving) at The Sanctuary, there’s letters from home.  Combine that with having to pick who goes on reward, and emotions will be high.  Drama awaits.  

Our “puzzle” this time is technically a table maze.  I specify this only because it leads to a small, but hilarious to me, moment.  When most everyone has made it to said maze, Probst specifies that this is a challenge that requires finesse.  We then cut immediately to Jake yeeting his ball out of the maze by jerking the controls too fast.  Now that’s good editing.  

With the physical portion basically not mattering, it comes down to who can master the maze the best.  Austin and Emily are neck-and-neck, but a late choke by Austin, and skill by Emily, nets the latter the win.  Good for her, and I don’t blame her for breaking down into tears here.  If I’d been on Little Lulu for so long, I’d probably go to tears at a win as well.  And it was really sweet how the entire rest of the tribe was supporting her during that.  

I’m less supportive of how Emily does her picks to come along, however.  She gets a total of three, one at a time, taking Julie for her first pick, and Dee for her third.  Neither of these I have a major problem with.  If Austin and Drew won’t move against Dee and Julie, logic dictates that Emily try things in reverse.  Since both are nominally in an alliance with her (assuming she remains grandfathered in with the Reba 4), and Julie in particular had that visibly rough night, these are easily justified.  

No, it’s the second pick of Katurah that I question a bit.  Not so much in making her the choice.  You don’t want to take Bruce as a challenge threat, Jake would just seem weird, and if you want to move against Drew and Austin, picking them is not the way to go.  But making her your second pick, rather than seeming to favor your stated main alliance?  Could come across as suspicious.  Sure enough, Austin notices this, and notes that it could portend something bad for his game, particularly as it was explicitly framed as a “girl’s night” by Emily.  You know, because paranoia about a women’s alliance never screwed over anyone’s game.  

Off to The Sanctuary, and for the most part it’s a touching repeat of the “Girl’s Night” theme.  Emily gets a confidence boost, with everyone there talking about how she’s better than she thinks she is.  Talk does turn to strategy, with all insisting a woman will win this season.  No, the giant flashing “FORESHADOWING” sign is not actually there.  You’re just seeing things.  Then again, the same foreshadowing also seemed to appear on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, and look how that turned out.  When strategy does come up, it’s largely directed against Bruce and Jake, which I can understand in this context.  If the women really do all want to team up and go to the end, any man going is good, and the four can just unite to take out the remaining three, all while keeping up pretenses of the Reba 4 being in power.  The number of idols the men have would be the only concerning factor, but then again, Julie still has one of Austin’s from last episode, as the “Previously On…” segment reminded us, and blindsides can happen.  

Oh, and Katurah spills the beans about Bruce’s idol lie, so that’s out the window now, I suppose.  

And what are our men doing while the women strategize?  A montage of “manly” things, of course.  It’s all set to appropriate montage music, which is funny, but still feels somehow out-of-place on the show.  Something about music that has (English) lyrics just feels wrong to me, no matter how funny.  We do also get some emotion out of them, however.  Drew feels happy to belong with the “Guys”, as opposed to his usual nerdy demeanor.  Notes of Cochran on “Survivor Caramoan” with that confessional.  Austin is our big winner here, going fishing and talking about the thrill of just being in Fiji.  Finally catching some decent-size fish probably helps with that as well.  About the only strategizing is Jake telling Drew Bruce’s lie about his idol, so that’s starting to bear some fruit.  Or it would if Katurah wasn’t burning up that possibility over at The Sanctuary.  

Not to be outdone in the emotion department, the women get to reading the letters from home.  All tear up more than a little bit on reading them, and understandably so.  As I said at the top of the blog, the mirror neurons are a-firing at this.  Only Emily and Katurah really get their letters highlighted in any depth beyond “Here’s a few words, it feels nice.”.  Emily’s leads to brief flashback where we see her and her boyfriend on a hike, as her boyfriend mentioned moving into their mutual house while she’s in Fiji.  See, this is a good flashback.  Brief, but appropriate given the subject matter.  Nice to put a face to the name, you know.  She then goes on to talk about how she hasn’t wanted to get married as she “Didn’t want to be a wife”, but now might be open to the idea, and be more expressive in her love.  Because we’re just outright cribbing the “Spencer-Bot Learns to Feel Love” arc from “Survivor Cambodia” at this point.  

It all works fine, but for my money, even though it gets less time, Katurah’s is the real tear-jerker.  She mentions having cut off contact with her mother a year ago, yet somehow gets a letter from her.  Presumably a fairly nice one, given her reaction.  We don’t get detail beyond that, presumably because the detail behind Katurah’s relationship with her mom is something she wants kept private, which is 100% the correct move.  It could also be more evidence for the “Emily Wins” theory, but for now, I’m inclined to say it’s respect for Katurah’s privacy.  Either way, however, the power of this gesture for Katurah comes through, even with the lack of detail.  

Well-rested, the women return to camp, with Drew eager to get back to strategizing.  He gets Emily to give him the goods, and the truth about Bruce’s idol lie comes out.  This, of course, just has Drew default to the “Split votes between Jake and Bruce” plan.  Emily, however, does inform Jake of this plan, explaining that no one else is giving Jake the time of day right now, and if he is going to be on the jury, she wants him to like her so he’ll vote for her in the end.  Sound reasoning.  This gets Jake to ACTUALLY throw out a name (at Ponderosa, Kellie feels a shudder, and she doesn’t know why), and specifically targets Drew as a bigger threat.  Reasonable, though Emily says that would throw away her game right now, which given how tight she seems with Drew, is also true.  

Word of this then gets back to Drew, and if he isn’t dialing the “douchebag” all the way back up to 11, he’s turning it back from how it’s been so far this episode.  He’s fairly aggressive in confronting Jake, who isn’t very willing to take it.  This culminates in Jake saying the conversation is over, leading to Drew calling him a mobster, with Jake pointing out how he isn’t in control, so how can he be a mobster?  Not the most memorable of fights, but an interesting watch nonetheless.  

I think this fight really highlights a standard I’ve talked about before in “Survivor” fights: Punching Up vs Punching Down.  Are you fighting with someone you have power over, or someone who has power over you?  Changes where the sympathies lie.  Drew has a right to be angry at his name being thrown out.  Even has a right to confront Jake about it if he so desires.  Maybe not be quite so arrogant about it, but a right to do so.  Yet, emotionally, Jake comes across as in the right.  He’s on the bottom, so what choice does he have but to throw out names?  It comes across as though Drew is not being the bigger man, despite having all the power of Jake’s fate right now.  

For another example of this principle, look at the Rupert/Russell fight on “Survivor Heroes vs Villains”.  On paper, both said pretty awful things about the other.  Rupert called Russell a “disgusting human being”, Russell sarcastically called Rupert “The second coming of Christ”, and seriously called him a dumbass.  Debate the points about which is worse all you want, but you come out sympathizing with Rupert.  Why?  Because Russell was in charge of the game, and there’s an emotional incumbency on those with power to be the bigger person in such scenarios, and not proverbially “punch back” (or, at a minimum, be non-confrontational in questioning someone, which is what Drew needed to do in this season).  And need I remind you, Rupert technically STARTED that fight, from what we saw!  That’s the power of your punching direction, baby.  

Off to our immunity challenge, a rarity in that it’s ACTUALLY ORIGINAL for once!  Tribe members lie on a wood slide toward the water, supporting themselves with handles that get smaller and smaller as you go down.  As you’d expect, you must move down periodically.  Pretty standard endurance challenge, and arguably another version of the “Stand on smaller and smaller perches in a frame” challenge first seen on “Survivor Fiji”, but hey, it looks different, and I’ll take what I can get.  

I’d have bet money on a woman’s victory in this challenge.  Less weight to hold up and all.  Probably would have put my money on Julie, since she’s done well in other individual challenges, and was filled up and rested from The Sanctuary.  Yet all four women drop out first.  This does end Bruce’s winning streak, however, though he does manage an impressive second.  Austin takes the victory, and hey, good for him.  At least we can finally try and get Bruce out so we can focus on someone else.  

Really, though, the story of this challenge is Katurah.  She’s out second, but not so much because she physically can’t hang on.  No, Katurah becomes visibly freaked at the idea of landing in the water, and eventually lowers herself to the platform rather than fall in.  A move that surprises even her, as she says she had prepared for water challenges beforehand.  I may be misremembering, but I don’t think Katurah’s particularly been freaked out by any water challenges beforehand, so this does seem somewhat out of left field for the audience as well.  Then again, most of those challenges have been brief swims, with little time to anticipate what’s coming.  My guess is that having nothing but time with her thoughts, Katurah just psyched herself out.  

This psych-out extends to the end of the challenge, where people would normally swim to the boat.  Probst offers to bring the boat up to her instead, and had he just left it there, moment would have been fine.  Raw emotions well-displayed, Probst being professional.  Nothing to complain about there.  But no, Probst has to make it a “Moment” by offering to let her jump in with everyone else.  Probst, buddy.  You were doing so well up until then.  Yes, it would make a great tv moment if Katurah overcomes her fear and jumps in with the others.  But it needs to be HER CHOICE!  You can say you’re not pressuring her all you want; I’m not buying it.  Oh, you might not be CONSCIOUSLY pressuring her, but on some subconscious level, you’re applying the pressure.  Get over yourself, and let the moment play out naturally.  

Jump Katurah does, though, with Emily beside her, several others already in the water, and applause from the tribe as a whole.  Generally a nice moment, even if it was a bit forced by Probst.  

With Bruce not guaranteed immune, Drew and the rest of Reba are happy to finally take a shot at him.  With his “Kellie had the idol” lie now throughly debunked, though, they have no expectation that he’ll go, and have Jake as the backup.  None of them are particularly broken up about this, however, and Julie in particular is happy to see him go.  That vendetta remains strong.  

Of course, “Will Bruce play his idol?” Is hardly the stuff of great drama, particularly as Bruce is clear in confessional that he’ll play his idol.  As such, a valid bit of misdirection is needed.  This comes in the form of a conversation between Katurah and Emily.  Katurah notes that “Everyone loves a Mama”, and pitches to Emily that Julie, nicknamed “Mama J”, can’t be at the end.  See my earlier points about this specific line of reasoning, though I will say that from what we’ve seen, Julie is pretty well-liked, nickname or no, so this isn’t entirely a bad idea.  Emily pitches said idea to Bruce and Jake, both of whom are on-board because, well, both of them are up for elimination otherwise.  

This plan… is a complete lie.  At least on Emily’s part.  Really, she just doesn’t want Bruce to play his idol, both as the bigger threat (both challenge-wise and jury-wise, at least as compared to Jake in the case of the latter), and as a feather in her cap.  After all, literally everyone has resigned themselves to Bruce playing his idol.  If she can pull the wool over his eyes, then she’s arguably responsible for the preferred target going out.  Quite the argument at the end, but not one so visible as to make you a threat before then.  

That said, Emily DOES still believe that Julie is a danger at the end.  She just feels like the shot needs to be guaranteed beforehand, since she’ll hold a grudge otherwise.  Given the Jake vendetta mentioned earlier, a reasonable concern.  There’s benefits to both moves here, I’d say.  Get out Julie, and you weaken the Reba 4 at what might be their last chance to be broken up.  Get out Bruce, and you get out someone with a good sob story who could immunity his way to the end.  Given the general history of returning “captains” on this show, and I can understand not wanting to keep Bruce around.  Jake is definitively the least-good option, as he has no strategic options and is a goat at the end, but the other two have pros and cons.  On the whole, though, if you can get Bruce out, that’s probably best.  It’s not impossible that Reba could break up, particularly with the nebulous women’s alliance, and he’s not someone you want at the end.  

Do we get the drama from Emily?  Well, a bit, but the focus is more on Jake.  You see, in confirming the plan, Bruce tells Jake that the “Kellie had the idol” lie was, well, a lie.  Jake’s a bit upset about this, mainly because it reminds him how out of the loop he is, even with his closest allies.  He has a good cry on the beach, meaning the only people we HAVEN’T seen cry this episode are Austin and Bruce, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they shed some tears that just didn’t make the episode.  Katurah and Bruce give Jake some comfort before Tribal.  It’s a nice scene.  Not much more to say than that.  Emotional, but not melodramatic.  

Sadly, for all the good emotion we get this episode, Tribal Council is fairly underwhelming, particularly compared to what we’ve gotten the past couple episodes.  Nothing particularly bad, but mostly standard double-talk.  About the only misstep I could see was Emily describing tonight as “Shaking up the power dynamics”.  Not the sort of thing you’d expect from a Bruce vote-out, but the sort of thing you would expect if a Reba member, say Julie, was gone.  Couple that with her assurance that she’s not receiving votes tonight, plus her still having Austin’s idol getting a mention despite otherwise being irrelevant, and yeah, seems like they’re going that way.  

Bruce evidently picks up on the cues as well, as he chooses not to play his idol.  I’ll say this for the man: He has balls of steel.  Even with all those cues, I would have played an idol.  Going to expire fairly soon anyway, and might as well have the guarantee.  

Evidently Bruce also has BRAINS of steel, because surprise, it’s him after all.  Can’t say I’m overly sorry.  Not so much because I particularly dislike Bruce, but because he got so much focus from players like Katurah.  I want to see what this group does WITHOUT him there as a distraction.  Plus, while not playing the worst game, it was kind of one-night.  I’ll say this, though: The man goes out with a lot of class.  He thanks the rest of the cast for giving him a good second chance, has some heartfelt final words, and takes getting voted out with an idol in stride.  Very classy.  

Like I said at the top, this is a great episode.  Some new challenges, interesting strategizing, and good misdirection.  There were a lot of little signs that could point to a Julie exit, so the fact that it was just misdirection shows we’re in good hands editing-wise.  But again, emotion is the core.  With one exception, we got strong raw emotion without it feeling forced, and a real sense that, while they may play cutthroat games, this is a good group of people who truly care about each other.  Always nice to see.  

The only concern is that, with a true majority, the Reba 4 could steamroll their way to the end, which would be a pretty bland, unsatisfying conclusion to an otherwise pretty good to great season.  The preview for next episode indicates a breakup.  Will that happen?  I doubt it, but I’ve been wrong before.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 8: Tha Survivah Yahd

Look, I’m not saying Jake was ever trying to hide the Boston in him.  But the longer he’s out there, the more pronounced the accent becomes.  And not just that, we’re getting more “wicked’s” per episode from him at this point.  Give it much longer, and it’s going to become as iconic as Judd Sergeant’s use of “man” on “Survivor Guatemala”.  

But this episode isn’t about Jake.  No, this episode is about Bruce!  Don’t believe me?  Apart from reiterating the split-Tribal twist, and bringing up the Kaleb vote, pretty much the entire “Previously On” segment is about Bruce.  Mostly about how he’s not playing the game well and most people want him gone.  Surely this will have no bearing on the episode, right?

Bruce gets a brief reprieve as we return from our respective Tribal Councils.  There’s not much to discuss with the Sifu vote-out.  Really the only relevant bit of info is Drew saying he was happy he and Emily were in lockstep.  More of a distraction in Jake, who as the odd vote out during Kaleb’s elimination, has some explaining to do.  He takes the… I’ll say UNIQUE tactic of owning what he did, but just saying it wasn’t personal, rather than try and put any spin on it.  Points for honesty, I guess, but you can’t expect Julie, the person he voted for, to take that lying down.  Sure enough, she admits to his face it’s going to be tough for them to work together, though she’s fairly polite in doing so.  At least in person.  Privately, she wants his head on a platter.  Ok, slight exaggeration, but he’s target number one for her, and unsurprisingly so.  

Morning comes, and with it renewed talk of a women’s alliance.  Kendra and Dee seem to be the most gung-ho about it, but all the women (up 6-4 right now), but most everyone seems vaguely interested.  With how paranoid men tend to be the minute women have a numerical advantage over them, the women suspect that the men suspect this plan as well.  Naturally, we then cut to the men discussing tacos.  Ok, that’s pretty hilarious.  

Oh, and who does the women’s alliance want out first, all else being equal?  Bruce, of course!  Because the theme of this episode is going to be “Bruce vs. The World”.  

Speaking of the world, it comes to them in the form of a boat.  Not, in this case, to take them on a journey, but to bring them a table, and baskets with each of their names.  Yes, this is the return of the Auction, last seen, as Probst will let us know, on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, 8 years ago.  This table does not mean the auction itself will take place on the tribe beach, however.  Rather, it’s the first of three tweaks that has led to the auction being brought back.  

You see, unlike past auctions, where everyone starts with an equal amount of money, this time they must race to find several bamboo chutes hidden throughout the jungle, each with some money.  They bring them back one at a time to their individual basket until all are found, and this determines how much money you start with.  Note that each chute contains a different amount of money, but you don’t know how much until you open it, which you can’t do until all the others are found.  Frankly, if it took this to get the auction back without any advantages (the second change Probst tells us of), it’s a worthy sacrifice.  In a vacuum, however, I’m not a fan of it.  It’s very luck-based, difficult to follow, and overall just pointless.  The pre-advantages auction was fine as it was!  Why fix what wasn’t broken when you first implemented it!

Pointless as this scramble may be overall, it does give the show another chance to dogpile on Bruce.  You see, upon finding out the twist described above, everyone dashes off to look for the chutes.  Everyone save Bruce, who takes his time putting his shoes on, then leisurely strolls through the jungle.  Now, normally I’d be in favor of this strategy.  Slow and steady wins the race, after all, and those chutes are easy to miss.  Yet, when everyone else is running, you’d think you could at least manage a light jog.  

Sure enough, Bruce’s strategy is not rewarded when he ends up with only $80, compared to most everyone else who at least got into the triple digits, topping out at Dee’s $900.  Because again, in this episode, Bruce must suffer.  

We get a montage of some past auctions leading us into this one, with some actually pretty deep cuts to “Survivor” lore.  Like sure, people remember things like the fruit bat soup from “Survivor Micronesia” (a point Emily emphasizes when bringing it up as an example of a bad food item), but how many people remembered Cochran licking peanut butter off someone else’s finger on “Survivor Caramoan”?  That may be because most people try to forget “Survivor Caramoan”, but I’m NOT one of those people, and even I forgot that moment for a second or two!  I’d say the montage was pointless, but then again, we DO have a lot of new, post-COVID fans, so perhaps emphasizing the history of the auction is called for.  Then again, a lot of those fans were brought in via “Survivor Cagayan” being on Netflix, and that season DID have an auction, so perhaps not as justified as one might think.  

Before we get to the third new “Twist” of this auction, we should note one slight format change.  I say “slight” because this was KIND OF a thing at auctions before, but is more up front and formalized than previous ones.  In the past, Probst always said the auction would end “without warning”, and that’s the case here as well.  The difference is he names the maximum number of items (15), and draws a rock out of a bag, which he says is numbered 6-15.  The number determines the last item up for bid, which only Probst will know.  So basically the same way it worked before, just with Probst making a bigger show of the “end without warning” part.  

This is relevant because of the THIRD twist added to the auction, and in my subjective view, the worst.  Eliminating advantages from the auction pretty much only helps in my view (I make an exception for “edge in the next immunity challenge” advantages, since those are not as overpowered), and while the scramble for money was annoying and made the auction tougher to follow, long-term it didn’t detract much.  But this?  This breaks the auction all over again.  You see, the person with the most money left at the END of the auction loses their vote at the next Tribal Council.  

Now, on the surface, this might not seem that bad.  After all, it now gives people like Bruce, who can’t get much at the auction, some sort of edge.  And while it is a consequence, it’s not an insurmountable one as Omar proved on “Survivor 42”, plus one that you can use strategy and maneuvering to avoid.  The FLAW in the idea is that there’s no rule against spending all your money at once.  Thus, with a few exceptions, it’s the person with the most money bidding everything they have to make sure they get the item, and get themselves out of the auction, thus saving their vote.  You know, that boring thing we were trying to AVOID by getting rid of the advantages up for bid?  We WANT to see bidding wars!  We WANT to see these dynamics play out!  We DON’T want to see whoever’s the richest just buy up something and be done!  And again, I must ask, WHY?  The auction, as originally implemented, was not broken.  Just go back to that!

But, since I know that Probst and co. are NOT going to go back to the original auction format, I have to assume that losing one’s vote in some way in relation to the auction is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future.  If that is the case, it seems to me there’s a couple of suggestions that could keep it in, while still allowing us to have the bidding wars we want to see/not screwing over the person with the least money to start with if the numbers are drawn wrong.  

Note that while we have the auction back, the food items were not as substantial as they have been in past auctions.  No big meals, no ridiculously large plates of food, no ribs dripping in barbecue sauce (Hi, Woo!).  Honestly, Emily probably got the most substantial item with her charcuterie board and glass of wine, and that’s more due to the size of the plate than anything nutritional.  I’m guessing this is part of the “Deprivation” thing the new era has been going for, but how about this: Offer up exactly ONE really substantial item.  Some major meal, like a 16 oz. Steak and fully loaded baked potato or something along those lines.  Keep it uncovered, but say that whoever wins the bid for what WILL BE the most substantial food at the auction must lose their vote at the next Tribal Council.  Suddenly becomes a risk vs. reward thing.  Can you resist the temptation of a sumptuous meal in order to keep your vote?  It’s asking the question “How much is your vote worth?” Even better, I’d say, than the Beware Advantages.  

And if no one bids on it?  Have Jeff eat it, right in front of them, just to taunt them.  With how many fake outs he pulls this episode, such torment would be perfectly on-brand.  

The other idea for how to implement it is a bit more random, but still preferable to how it’s done here: Make the lost vote a dud item.  Put it up as a covered option when you give players a choice.  They make the wrong choice, they lose their vote.  Yeah, it’s more luck-based than I would like, but like I said, losing one’s vote is not an insurmountable punishment, and it gets us back the bidding wars we so want.  

For all my kvetching above, the auction does have its fair share of funny moments.  I won’t recap everything everybody won, but we do have a number of highlights to go over.  Kendra wins beer and pretzels, which I only bring up since it’s appropriate that the bartender won the explicit alcohol item.  Emily and Katurah get in one of our few bidding wars, with Emily ultimately winning what turns out to be the aforementioned charcuterie board.  Katurah looks very put-out, which could be because Katurah was maxed out on funds at that point, but I choose to believe is because the bid was no longer at $420, and Katurah wanted to reference Ozzy at the “Survivor Cook Islands” auction.  Katurah, incidentally, is our loser of the auction, spending all her money on what turns out to be the whammy item of fish eyes.  Not particularly gross in and of themselves, but these are about the size of one’s face.  Katurah bravely takes a bite, but can’t finish the rest, leading Austin to spend $100 on them.  He doesn’t finish them either, but gets more substance out of them than Katurah did.  He also is the only person to get multiple food items by bidding, since he spends his remaining $600 on a large slice of pizza.  

Not the most dropped by a single person (without pooling money) however.  That honor goes to Dee, with a $900 chocolate milkshake.  Yeah, can’t blame her for that one.  With far and away the most money, she was initially most likely to lose her vote.  Spending it on a tasty, COLD treat when living in the tropical sun?  Makes perfect sense to me.  Kellie managing to correctly predict a Margherita in her items was a nice touch.  Last but not least, Jake ends up spending all his funds on a cake he gets to share with two other people.  He wisely picks Julie and Bruce, the former to mend fences, the latter to maintain his alliance.  I’d say he was making said alliance too obvious, but frankly, everyone left knew at this point.  Might as well be nice to the guy who can’t win squat this auction.  

Speaking of which, yeah, the auction ends just wrong for Bruce.  Emily still had money left, but $20 less than Bruce after her win.  Thus, Bruce has lost his vote for this episode.  Because of course he did.  

Back at camp, it seems the beer wasn’t just appropriate to Kendra’s profession.  Seems she has a deeper connection with the stuff, since she and her biological dad, whom she wasn’t raised with and didn’t meet until her late teens, bonded over the stuff.  Look, I don’t want to take away from Kendra’s personal experience.  Clearly this is a part of her life that really impacted her, and holds a lot of value.  It’s nice to see this part of her character, rather than what we’ve mostly seen so far which largely boils down to “kookiness”.  But these flashback scenes live or die on how naturally they are integrated into the narrative, and this one is tenuous at best.  Even if it’s semi-relevant, the montage of Kendra just DOING STUFF in the game isn’t.  As such, while probably very impactful for Kendra, it just falls flat from the audience.  

Better for her is renewed discussion of the women’s alliance, and how much easier it will be to target Bruce without a vote.  After all, no vote, no Shot in the Dark, so just his idol to worry about.  Before we get too far off Kendra, it IS a bit odd that she’s willing to work with Emily on this after swearing vengeance for the Brando boot.  I guess time heals all wounds?  

Anyway, Kellie in particular is keen to get rid of Bruce, considering him a “ball and chain” with how often the pair are considered “together” despite it being largely one-sided from Bruce, rather than a mutual thing.  Most everyone seems on board, though their is a weak link.  Unsurprisingly, that link is Emily.  She plays along with the alliance to their faces, as one should, but look a bit deeper, and the women’s alliance is not necessarily the greatest thing for her game.  After all, where is she in that alliance but a likely sixth?  She’s never worked much with either Kellie or Katurah, and burned a bridge with Kendra only a couple episodes ago.  It could be argued she’s basically a part of the Reba alliance now, and so might have an in with Dee and Julie.  But then again, her being part of that alliance is more due to her relationship with Drew and Austin, rather than Dee and Julie.  As such, might be better to keep those allies around, particularly as they make great shields.  

Sure enough, Emily informs Drew of the situation, which is probably the smart move for her for the reasons detailed above.  Luckily for the nascent women’s alliance, Drew doesn’t actively plan to do anything about it.  Seems hating on Bruce is not just for the women, as Drew is ok with using them to get rid of Bruce at this juncture.  In a brilliant move, he stages a conversation with Katurah that leads her to thinking it’s all her idea, with him and the rest of old Reba reluctantly going along with it.  It’s brilliantly done, and helps hide what fractures there are in that alliance quite well.  And hey, it piles on Bruce some more, so it’s on-theme for this episode.  

Our immunity challenge is nothing to write home about.  Tribe members hold up bundles of bamboo by a rope, which they must move further back on (indicated by knots) at intervals.  Drop the bundle, or step off the platform while holding it up, or bend one’s arm (the latter of which I’m not sure how they enforce without having an intern standing next to each player), and you’re out.  First seen on “Survivor Samoa”, really the only innovation this challenge has is that dropping your bundle now smashes a pelican-head statue.  Coincidentally, this challenge was co-designed by Osten Taylor (“Survivor Pearl Islands”).  

Point being, bog-standard endurance challenge.  Barely of note.  However, it’s also time for the now season-requisite rice negotiations.  Emily and Dee step off, the first two of four that Probst wants.  Not surprising for either of them.  Neither seemed in danger of going home, and as Dee’s toes were unlikely to be a help, neither of them seemed likely to win this challenge.  When no one else seems to want to step off, however, Probst puts on his mean-host hat, and KNIFES THE FREAKING BAG OF RICE SO IT STARTS SPILLING OUT!  It may seem like I’m attacking Probst here, but I kind of love it.  It’s a striking image, that returns Probst to his more aggressive roots, which is fun to see.  Drew and Katurah quickly agree to sit out, meaning a minimum of rice is lost.  Again, pretty logical sit-outs.  Neither seemed in real danger this episode.  

Despite Jake’s complaints, and his difficulty not bending his arm, most everyone lasts a good while in this challenge.  It’s only Bruce and Julie left at the end, quite impressive for the only two players over 40 this season.  That said, this matchup means it’s obvious who wins.  Literally no one but Bruce has been mentioned as a target this episode.  It’s like the Roger boot on “Survivor The Amazon”: There’s no plausible other target, so might as well just dog-pile on the boot and have a fun journey.  Plus, Julie has been playing this challenge smart, keeping her hand just below the last knot for extra leverage, rather than just above the next knot for better grip.  This strategy will surely lead to victory, which is why Bruce wins immunity!  Wait…

Yeah, I’ll give credit that I didn’t see this coming, and the montage of confessionals we get afterward of everyone being frustrated while Bruce is just gleeful is hilarious.  That said, this episode has practically ONLY been about Bruce so far, and we’re now 2/3 of the way through, approximately.  Everything was set up for Bruce to go.  The fact that he can’t, while a blindside of the audience, basically makes the first 2/3 of this episode, oh, what’s the word… ENTIRELY POINTLESS!  Yeah, apart from some humorous moments, and one or two strategic insights, NOTHING that happened so far has any bearing on the outcome!  And you know how I feel about showing us pointless things.  Why do you think “Survivor Edge of Extinction” is my least-favorite season?

Still, with Bruce now safe, new targets need to be quickly established.  In the last 30 minutes of the episode.  But not bitter, not bitter.  Jake is the next logical target, since he and Bruce are seen to be quite close.  Julie is of course all on board for this after the last Tribal Council, but Kellie is the one really pushing for it, since again, she fears the target blowing back on her.  

Of course, Jake will need a fake story, and so Kellie and Emily talk with him at the water well, trying to get him to throw out a name.  They do this pretty masterfully, but even so, Jake sees through what they’re doing.  As such, he correctly deduces the target has moved to him and starts frantically searching for an idol.  Like Sifu before him, old Reba takes notice.  Drew, however, uses this as a reason to want to keep Jake around, at least for tonight.  Even if Jake doesn’t find an idol, there’s still the Shot in the Dark, and Bruce could also choose to play his idol on Jake.  The last option I feel is a bit far-fetched, but I’m not going to blame people for at least considering the possibility.  As such, Drew brings Kellie’s prophecy to bear, and suggests going for her as the safe boot.  Most of Reba+Emily seems to be on board, with Julie being the most strong objection, and Dee backing her up.  

These past few episodes have had decisions that have no real bad choice.  Sub-optimal plays, but good overall either way.  This is not one of those.  Getting rid of Kellie is clearly the superior choice.  The thing with Jake is that, while he’s not shown a willingness to work with you, basically no one is willing to work with HIM in return.  Kellie is the one with the connections and the social game to get things done, and actually upend your game strategically.  Plus, she seems to be decently liked, while Jake’s social capital appears to shrink by the day.  Jake is an easy boot who, if he makes it to the end, has little shot at winning.  Kellie could easily slip by, and with a few smart strategic moves, she’s your winner.  Much better to get her our, with Bruce unavailable.  Plus, if you’re Austin, getting out Kellie powers up your amulet to a full idol, though he wisely doesn’t remind people of this fact.  

Another thing this episode has that others this season do not is a Tribal Council that’s actually entertaining!  We start off with discussion of the rice negotiations, with everyone getting sarcastic with Jeff over knifing the rice bag.  We even see the return of “Blunt Emily”, who outright tells Jeff they’re pissed about that.  Jake is our dissenting voice hear, disputing the claims of altruism.  He denies there’s such a thing on “Survivor”.  Rafe from Guatemala would dispute that, I’d say.  

Still, it’s really Jake’s spotlight now.  He state that he knows he’s likely a target, but beyond that, the elements get to him a bit.  Dude can’t string together a coherent sentence, at least not without some time to gather himself.  When he does, he gives a decently strong argument about how dogpiling on him doesn’t benefit the person on the bottom.  He even uses his sudden speaking problems to his advantage, “letting slip” the idea he might have an idol.  I use quotes here because I don’t feel like that was a natural slip-up from Jake, unlike most of the rest of them.  I think this was hi8m seeing how he was talking, and using it to his advantage, faking another slip-up to imply that him saying he has an idol is truthful.  If so, good move on him.  

He isn’t truthful, of course.  He plays his Shot in the Dark, which I honestly can’t blame him for.  He was a likely target, and his vote would make no difference.  Might as well use it.  He asks for some of Kaleb’s luck, asking him to blow on it, but he ends up “Not Safe” nonetheless.  Luckily, Reba decided to make the smart decision to vote out Kellie.  

Despite it being indisputably the correct move, at least from what we see, I’m torn on Kellie’s exit.  On the one hand, she clearly takes it HARD.  She buries her head in her hands when the votes for her start coming.  You can see her worst fears written across her face as she gets vote after vote.  She gets hugs from her former Belo members, but spurns Reba, in particular being mad at Austin, who takes credit for the move, and Emily, who tells her it’s because she was playing a good game.  She’s so discombobulated, she even forgets to bring up her torch initially.  All this, combined with heartfelt final words, can be kind of painful to watch, especially for someone who, even if they weren’t the biggest character, were a good strategist, which is always a tough person to lose.  On the other hand, it’s nice to FINALLY get a reaction to leaving other than the bland congratulations we so often get in the new era.  Add onto that, as I said, Kellie not being a particularly big character this season, and ultimately I’m pretty satisfied with the result.  

This episode really defies easy categorization in terms of “like” or “dislike”.  The first hour being pointless REALLY left a bad taste in my mouth.  That said, that last half-hour was incredibly tight and well-edited, and this episode had arguably the best Tribal Council of the season, at least in terms of the boot’s reaction.  All positives, but I’m not sure it’s enough to overcome that big early deficit, especially when said early deficit contains a lackluster auction.  I guess it’s better than the nothingburger we got last episode, but still, show, you can do better.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 7: Show of Forced

Oh?  Oh, the title?  Sorry, that’s a typo.  It’s supposed to be “Forced Show”, since that’s what we got tonight.  I’m more forgiving of “feel good” moments than some, but combine them with Probst narration where it isn’t needed, and you’re rankling my hide something fierce.  

Our first bit of information as we get back from what I’ll be calling the “Earn the Merge” Tribal is the merge tribe name.  Turns out they went with Gaia this time.  I prefer my merge tribe names longer myself, and it’s not particularly Fijian either, but it’s fine for what it is.  At least it’s not another combination of the original tribe names.  

Our second bit of information is that Jeanine was NOT in on the “Blindside Elie” plan, and is, quite understandably, not happy about it.  Noelle is quick to sympathize with her, noting that she was in the exact same situation after her first Tribal Council, and noting how well it’s turned out for her overall.  Jeanine, to her credit, recognizes that she needs to sell herself as not being particularly beat up over the whole thing.  I can get behind this sentiment, but we see that Cody need not be afraid of Jeanine.  A salesperson she isn’t.  She’s saying the right words to people: How she’s happy to still be in the game, distancing herself from Elie, talking about how she’s less of a threat now.  But her tone comes off as either too insistent, or else stilted and forced.  Gabler’s grudge was more against Elie, so I don’t think Jeanine’s in too much danger regardless (particularly as she has an idol), but it’s more due to the situation than her prowess.  That said, I will give her props for her pitch to James specifically.  When James comments that she’s not going to be a target, she responds very well by saying “Then let me be an asset”.  Subtly planting the idea of working with her in people’s heads without insisting on anything, and making it sound very natural.  More of that, please!

Gabler may have spearheaded the vote in the previous episode, but he’s by no means the leader of this tribe.  After confirming that his idol is now inactive (I think most of us assumed it was, but it’s good to get confirmation nonetheless), Gabler talks about sitting back a bit.  Gabler tells us this is intentional, as he wants the “Alli-Gabler” to “sink back under water” until it’s time to strike again.  Eh, I’ve heard dumber nicknames on this show.  

Gabler may not have the chance though.  Dwight and Owen reaffirm the Baka/Vesi commitment against Coco, though why either of those two has the power to make that call is beyond me.  Owen, from what we can tell, was left out of the vote last episode, implying he has no real power even within his own tribe.  Dwight is slightly better off, having been the swing vote at his last Tribal vote (as in tribal phase, not Tribal Council), but still, decision-making power seemed like it rested more with Jesse and Cody than him.  However, they note that Gabler is a wild card.  A loose cannon.  A bull in a China shop.  Every other cliche metaphor for something uncontrollable/destructive.  Hence, Gabler is target number one, as the supermajority could still get out Coco without the X factor of Gabler.  Can’t fault their logic.  

No time for more strategizing, Tree Mail has arrived!  At first it seems like it’s just delivering the new tribe flag and paints, but as Dwight tells us, there’s something more.  Yes, the show is kicking it old school-style, by asking everyone to divide into pairs for the upcoming immunity challenge.  With everyone correctly predicting that they’ll need a strong competitor to get through, but also having to face said competitor at the end, plus the ever-present danger in speaking up in general, no one really wants to ask for anybody.  Honestly, this is a fantastic wrinkle/dilemma to throw into the game.  One that forces more social creativity, while also being a throwback to older seasons.  “Survivor The Australian Outback” and “Survivor Africa” both did something similar for their final 8 reward challenge!  I kind of love the callback.  

Immediately afterward, however, I’m reminded why that twist was rightfully retired: NO ONE EVER DOES ANYTHING WITH IT!  Rather than show their hand, the members of Gaia use their newly-acquired paint to create pairs of colored rocks, with people drawing them randomly to determine pairings.  LAME!

We cut to commercial with Sami talking about the mystery of what’s happening.  This challenge could be for anything!  Except, you know, Sami, the Tree Mail literally said it was for immunity, so it’s really not.  

Coming to our challenge, we see that it’s not just the production team on “Survivor All-Stars” who can divide people in such a way that original tribes remain largely intact.  Pretty much everyone is paired with someone from their original tribe: James and Ryan, Karla and Cassidy, Cody and Dwight, and most notably, Owen and Gabler.  This makes the only exceptions the pair of Sami and Noelle, and Jesse and Jeanine.  

It is the Owen and Gabler pair that I take umbrage with, however.  I get that it was random, but between that and the way this episode was edited so far, it’s a dead giveaway that they make it to the end, and Gabler wins out.  You don’t set up a conflict between two tribemates, then pair them together for most of a challenge, without setting them up for a conflict at the end.  And as Gabler was the only person targeted, the law of editing states that he must now be safe so the others scramble.  Hopefully they don’t drag the challenge out too long, at least.  

Speaking of the challenge, it’s an interesting mix.  Each pair makes their way through a net tube to dig up planks and flag, last two to do so being eliminated from the challenge.  Made all the harder by the net tube being twisted up, and in the mud.  Then it’s your usual “Plank bridge” balance challenge with two people, with the first two teams to cross moving on to the last round, which is the “Hold up a bucket with a percentage of your body weight by a cord wrapped around a pipe” challenge.  Combing your standard obstacle course with your standard endurance challenge is, I’ll admit, a new one for this show, but I’m not sure combining parts that are average at best add up to something great.  

Despite the challenge itself, or at least the first leg, not relying on teamwork (you could not help your partner through the net), it’s our mixed pairs that get eliminated first.  Not being jerks, everyone comes together to help Noelle and Jeanine (the two who could not get through the net) get out.  A pretty decent thing to do, though I suppose it is somewhat special that everyone helped, not just the partner.  We see here that it’s not just when sitting out that Noelle is emotional, as she expresses frustration at herself, and laments that she cost Sami a shot.  Sami, being a decent guy, tells her it doesn’t matter, and it’s all very nice.  

Too bad Probst just HAS to turn it into a “moment”.  Talk about how this is what makes “Survivor” great, and how sweet and unexpected this camaraderie is.  Or, you know, it could just be BASIC HUMAN FUCKING DECENCY, or BHFD, as I call it.  And even if it is something special, let the moment play out naturally.  Let the audience use their brain a bit.  Don’t feel the need to narrate over it and question everything.  Probst, buddy, I try and defend you as a host, I really do, but you’re not making it easy.  

Before we move on to the next round, we have a commercial break.  I’ll take that time to give props to Karla and Cassidy for making it past round one.  Neither of them was particularly a challenge sink, per se, but neither seemed a challenge beast either, which every other pair had at least one of.  Hence, impressive that they had a solid round one.  

Round two is not so lucky for them though.  Once Cody and Dwight cruise to an easy first place, we know from editing that Gabler and Owen must make it.  Sure enough, both of the Coco pairs collapse near the end (Karla needing to take the planks all the way back to start), and Owen and Gabler cruise to the final round.  

Said final round, according to Probst, breaks the record for this challenge, going for 37 minutes.  I’m not one to question the guys who made the show, but I thought for sure I remember the iteration of this challenge from “Survivor Philippines” being measured in hours, not minutes.  In any case, Dwight is out quickly, but everyone else hangs on.  

You know what this challenge doesn’t need?  More Probst narration!  Yet Probst gives it to us anyway.  The gift that keeps on giving, that man.  He asks what’s keeping everyone going in the challenge, and you can tell how forced some of these answers are.  Really, Cody?  Biggest regret is one lost wrestling match?  Sadness is sadness, but that had to be a good 20 years or so since you’ve done that.  I would think you would have moved on by now.  

That said, for every Cody, there is a Gabler.  Gabler is not content with having one motivator, no.  He needs to have a different motivation every minute!  This quickly spirals into the ludicrous, yet hilarious, territory.  Gabler starts out reasonable.  Talking about his family, and someone he met in an operating room.  Reasonable stuff.  Then he goes to more broad categories, like veterans of the armed forces.  Slightly more of a stretch, but again, hardly unreasonable.  By the end, though, Gabler is finding motivation in the entire state of Alaska, and making me regret using up my “Contestant breaks into my house” running gag too early this season.  We don’t hear every bit of inspiration Gabler has, but given that he was on states by the end, if you live in the U.S. I’d say there’s at least a 50% chance you were an inspiration to Gabler in that challenge.  

And to those who say the hilarity that is Gabler listing off his inspirations is worth the forced Probst moments, I would counter that Gabler probably would have listed them off without assistance from Probst.  

The only thing I had wrong in my predictions is that it’s not down to Owen vs Gabler specifically.  Owen can’t hang on, and it’s Cody who gives Gabler a run for immunity.  Gabler wins, getting to wear the extremely cool individual immunity idol for the season.  A bunch of claws centering around an animal skull.  Kind of derivative of the “Survivor Caramoan” individual immunity, but that’s a cool one to draw from, and this at least has some jade accents to help it stand out.  

So yeah, the sole named target is now immune, and so apart from Jeanine trying to get back in people’s good graces and Baka and Vesi coming back together, basically nothing has mattered this episode.  Well, we’re only what, halfway through?  Glad the show is making good use of its time.  

Following a PSA out PTSD from Gabler (that, to his credit, he does really well), we now need to scramble for some new targets.  Our initial plan is, once again, Baka and Vesi coming together.  With all 8 of their votes now active again, they can afford to split votes, since both sides now seem to be solid (Gabler’s vendetta having been satisfied for the moment).  They split between whom they perceive to be the biggest threats in James and Ryan.  The latter for his challenge ability, the former for his social prowess.  But of course, one must be paramount after the tie, and the coalition seems to be leaning towards James.  Can’t say I fault their logic.  Both are decent threats, but the social threats, at this phase, can be worse in the long run than the physical threats.  Besides, Ryan is more likely to split from Coco than James in the event the other is voted out.  

Adding to James’ target, he finds a note saying an advantage is hidden under the shelter.  Normally this would be a good thing, but James happens to find it in from of Dwight, Owen, and Sami, aka three people who really want him gone.  James plays it off as best he can, saying he won’t go for it until after Tribal Council to build trust, but no one buys it, and it merely cements the target on James’ back.  As such, James goes back on his word, and grabs the thing with no subtlety.  Ordinarily I’d chastise such an obvious move, and one that makes you look untrustworthy, but in this case, it seems like James just rightly read the room that he was screwed anyway, so he might as well get a hopefully beneficial twist out of it.  

Noelle in particular is leading the anti-James charge now, since Dwight disseminates the information of James’ advantage to everyone else.  We don’t see exactly why, but I think that’s because the episode may have shown us some events slightly out of order, as I’ll discuss in a bit.  It’s this insistence from Noelle that gets us our misdirection here.  See, Jesse still doesn’t fully trust Noelle, and so her really wanting this to happen makes Jesse think that doing so will give her too much power.  Plus, he’s got a tight bond with Karla, and thinks he can work with her down the road.  Voting off James might jeopardize that.  

What’s that?  You didn’t know Jesse and Karla had a close bond?  Are you blind?  The edit made it super-obvious!  You know, with all of ZERO CONVERSATIONS we’ve seen between them before this point!

Look, I get that it might be a “They went to the same school at the same time, and so at least knew of each other outside the game” thing, but that’s little excuse.  “Survivor Winners at War” showed that the show can handle “Outside the Game” facets well, and they’ve even dealt with this exact same situation before.  Ali and Patrick knew each other before “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, and the show let us know that just fine!  But even if you DON’T want to admit you maybe accidentally put a pre-existing relationship on the show, at least give us SOME other excuse!  SURELY Karla and Jesse had some conversation before this.  Give us that.  Give us SOMETHING rather than jumping straight to “They’re super close”

Anyway, Jesse talks to Cody about getting rid of Noelle, which Jesse changes to getting rid of Dwight, since he seems to be the better player.  In either case, I can definitively say this is a STUPID PLAN!  The group most likely to be successful at the end is the one that does not fracture too early.  Gabler has already fractured Baka fairly handily, so that leaves you and Coco.  You want Coco to crack first, and the best way to do that is to get rid of one of them, rather than someone you’ve been at least somewhat working with this entire time!  Even without factoring in James’ advantage, he’s the smarter play.  

Speaking of James’ advantage, this is where we find out what it is.  It’s our old friend, Knowledge is Power, aka the show saying “We’re going to keep giving out this advantage until it works, gorramit!”  James, evidently having learned nothing from the previous two seasons, starts telling people about it, hoping to build trust.  Ryan I don’t mind, since it would help keep him from wanting to turn on Coco, but Cody?  Even not knowing Cody has an idol, if you wanted that advantage so bad, you MUST suspect that Vesi is working against you.  Why give them ammunition.  This is enough to get Cody on the path against James again, and leads to most everyone else knowing that James has this advantage.  It also, in my view, goes to explain why Noelle might have been so gung-ho against James.  After all, James is out of the loop on the exact location of MOST idols and advantages in the game, but he knows FOR SURE that Noelle has one, since had and Owen effectively gave her one on their journey in episode 3.  That, rightly, probably makes Noelle afraid, and thus makes her more of a force behind this vote than she might previously have been, assuming that what we saw of her pushing for James came after knowledge of his advantage was specifically disseminated.  

Oh, and of course, as when any “Knowledge is Power” is found out about, there’s a mad scramble to shift who has what, leaving Dwight to hold onto Jeanine’s idol.  But I’m sure that won’t be important in the long run.  

In keeping with stuff being put in too short a time frame, our Tribal Council is a particularly short one tonight, but still manages to pack in a few memorable moments.  Jesse gets to call back to the “1-10 scale” moment from earlier in the season when asked effectively the same question.  I also enjoy, in a meta sort of way, Probst throwing out all pretense, and just asking Cody for a surfing analogy.  If we must have the forced analogies, this is the way to do it.  

Surprisingly, no one plays an idols or advantages.  James in particular has some stones given that he must have had some idea he was being targeted.  Kudos to him!  It’s bad news for Dwight, however, as Cody and Jesse (and by extension Sami, since he was also in on the vote) do a dumb and send him home.  While it might have been a bad move strategically, from an entertainment perspective it was probably the best outcome.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed Dwight very much, but compared to the other targets tonight, he was the least interesting television, at least for me (I could see someone finding Ryan less interesting).  Happy with the outcome, stupid as it may be.  

That said, Dwight does not make the jury, which I am sad for.  Dude was so full of energy, would have been fun to see him being the King.  This is also a relative rarity in the show these days; making the official merge but not the jury.  If you don’t count Sydney and Lydia from the last two seasons as having made the merge, the last time this happened was “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  

Oh, and let’s not forget about Jeanine!  She tries valiantly to get her idol back as the votes are being read, tapping on Dwight’s leg repeatedly.  It’s all for naught, as the show has been kind enough to confirm this would not have been allowed, but man, she just cannot catch a break, this poor woman!  She’s basically in the Scot Pollard position from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  The only difference this time is that I actually enjoy watching the people who just got screwed, and so we miss out on some of the schadenfreude that season had.  

I will not say this episode is entirely without merit.  There were a few moments of hilarity here and there.  Gabler during the immunity challenge, and the aforementioned Tribal Council questions.  But apart from the occasional giggle, this episode is just BAD.  Terrible misdirection, poor gameplay largely across the board, and half the episode was pointlessly taken up by a challenge that undid nearly all the earlier strategizing.  I’ve tried to be fair to this season, but my patience is at an end.  You can do better!  Shape up!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

A Short History of the “Survivor” Season Preview

Well, after a break of I would say reasonable length, it is time to return to our off-season discussion content.  And naturally, with the first thing I’m covering, the thing that is designed to bring back readers who may have tuned out during the off-season, I’m going with an incredibly niche topic that is likely non-controversial and interesting to few.  Because I make good decisions!

In all seriousness, my reasoning for covering this topic merits some explanation.  At the end of “Survivor 42”, I, like most fans, eagerly consumed the preview for the upcoming “Survivor 43”.  It was an enjoyable preview; pretty standard on the surface, but fun.  However, I did have a nagging thought that this preview seemed to have more cast members present in it than previous ones.  Still, this was not enough on its own to merit further investigation, particularly since it might be a “just me” thing.  Later on, though, reading around online and talking with fans myself, many people got a similar sentiment, and thus investigation seemed more warranted.  To do this, though, I needed to rewatch every single season preview “Survivor” has ever produced, taking down relevant data on each so as to be able to compare the latest preview to those that came before.  Entertaining enough, but even with such short subject matter (generally 1-2 minutes in length), that adds up over the course of 40+ seasons, so that’s over an hour of my life I can never get back.  All this research mushroomed into a lot of patterns and factoids I felt might be fun to share with the readership, hence this blog.  Or, to put it another way, I have spent over an hour of my life on this, and you will all now experience my findings with me, dang it!

Before we get to what makes the preview for “Survivor 43” different (and rest assured, there are some stark differences), we need to talk about how the season preview started out.  As one might expect, the focus of the preview when it first came to light was not on the cast, or even the twists that the new season would bring, but instead on the location.  The culture, the beauty of the land, and the difficulty of survival were the main things highlighted, if not the only things highlighted.  One need only look at how the preview was introduced to recognize this.  Rather than “Take a look at what’s coming next season” or similar language, the preview was usually brought up with “Take a look at where ‘Survivor’ is going next” or similar language.  And, for the early days of the show, this should not be a surprise.  Strange though it may seem now, in the early days, “Survivor” was pitched as a show about, well, actual survival.  Not the elaborate strategy game we know and love today, the idea was that actual physical survival in the wilderness would be important, if not the driving factor of the game.  

What MAY be a surprise is how long this method of hyping up the next season lasted.  “Survivor” may have been initially pitched and marketed as a show about actual survival, but the social survival and strategy quickly came to dominate that perception, even in the eye of the public.  The exact date the switch happened is unknown, and therefore up for debate (some might argue that it happened as early as halfway through “Survivor Borneo” with the Gretchen boot), but even being conservative, I feel like it would be hard to argue that the focus of “Survivor” was on literal survival post “Survivor The Amazon”.  The success of Rob Cesternino on that season is hard to justify if the game is truly about physical survival.  So, even with this estimate, you’d expect, around this time, that the previews would switch to talking about the casts, twists, and possibly a hint of strategy for the new season.  Yet, with only a couple of exceptions, this style of preview, focusing on the new location, continued up through the preview for “Survivor Nicaragua”, pretty much the halfway point of “Survivor” at the time of this writing.  

Conversely, a peak at the cast, now very much the norm, did not happen in any form for quite some time.  The first preview to even SHOW the cast was for “Survivor Fiji”, since the show highlighted the diversity in socioeconomic status in their casting.  They noted that they had “A former homeless street performer” and a “Harvard educated lawyer” on the same season, and showed clips of Dreamz and Alex, respectively, when mentioning this.  And it would take another year before we actually heard any of the cast SPEAK in the preview, with the first instance being in the “Survivor Micronesia” preview.  Yeah, well after the viewing audience had abandoned the idea of physical survival being a major factor on the show, the show doggedly tried to act like this was the case in the preview.  They paid lip service to it, more so as time went by.  Mostly through the use of the phrase “How will they survive the elements, and more importantly, survive each other?”.  But if you were someone new only seeing the preview for some reason, you’d be forgiven for thinking the show was about actual, physical survival.  

For every rule, however, there is an exception, and this era of preview has a few exceptions to this rule.  Most notably, in instances where the show had to reuse a location (such as with “Survivor Exile Island” or “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”), they couldn’t exactly focus on the wonder, mystery, and danger of a location the viewers were already familiar with.  Logically, they went to the next step, and focussed instead on the twist or gimmick of the season.  The preview for “Survivor Exile Island” focussed on the titular “Exile Island” twist, while “Survivor Micronesia” and “Survivor Heroes vs Villains” focussed on their respective tribe divisions, and the 10th anniversary in the latter case.  The show also began using the technique of reminding viewers of the previous exotic locations the show had been to to hype up the legacy of the show continuing, and oddly, not always when going to a reused location.  “Survivor Palau”, which could easily have had a regular season preview in the “new location” style, was the first to utilize this technique.  

Perhaps the most confusing outlier, however, is the preview for “Survivor All-Stars”.  Or rather, I should say, the LACK of a preview for “Survivor All-Stars”.  Yes, out of all of the seasons in this era, with the exception of “Survivor Borneo” (which obviously couldn’t have one due to coming first), this is the only season to not get a proper preview video at the end of the previous season.  Probst just says a couple sentences about various old castaways coming back, and asks everyone to tune in next season.  Underwhelming by any measure, but particularly baffling given that this is a season that should be EASY to hype up.  After all, this is something fans had been speculating about for years at this point, and hyping themselves up online for such an event.  Surely a preview extravaganza would be in order?  Well, while I don’t have a definitive answer, I can offer a couple of hypotheses.  

For the more cynical side of things, one might assume that production just had little faith in the season as a whole.  Filming had wrapped only three days prior to the Pearl Islands finale, so they knew how the season would play out.  It’s well known that pretty much all of production were not happy with the result, and Probst in particular was vocal that it was not fun to work on.  With all that so fresh in production’s mind, perhaps they just didn’t feel the season merited the grand preview the season premise would indicate.  If one is perhaps more optimistic, it might simply be that the show felt it did not have a good way to market itself.  Really, the entire draw of a season like this IS the cast, but as mentioned, the show was quite reluctant to give any casting hints in their previews at this time.  Perhaps they just wanted to avoid spoilers, and figured the hype of the premise itself would be enough, preview or no preview.  How badly the cast was spoiled even prior to the end of Pearl Islands might also be a factor here, but as I wasn’t part of the online fandom at the time, I can’t say for certain.  If someone is reading this who was, how soon was the cast of “Survivor All-Stars” known?  It really would be interesting data to help with coming to a  conclusion.  

Moving along, naturally the era of hyping up the location itself came to an end.  It was less due to public perception changing, however, and more due to logistical concerns.  Once the seasons started shooting back to back in the same location, every other season, at a minimum, would be hard, if not impossible, to hype up as an exotic and dangerous location if it was one we’d already seen before.  Thus, from “Survivor Redemption Island” on, pretty much up until the present day, the twist of the season became the defining feature of the preview.  How would the tribes be divided?  What new twist would our players have to face in the upcoming season?  These were now the sort of questions the preview was posing to try and hype up the next season.  

Interestingly, the format for hyping up the twist was more fluid in this era than the format for hyping up the location in previous seasons.  Initially, it stayed focussed on the twist, with rarely any appearances by the cast, either in voice over or in on-camera shot.  “Survivor Caramoan” saw the second return of contestants appearing, making it seem as though such an appearance was limited only to seasons subtitled “Fans vs. Favorites”.  

Then came the brief stretch where “Survivor” tried to focus more on social media hype than on preview hype.  “Survivor Blood vs Water”, “Survivor Cagayan”, and “Survivor San Juan del Sur” all have exceptionally short previews, only a few seconds long.  Instead, the show let people speculate on these incredibly vague previews (Blood vs. Water was just a shot of a drop of “blood” falling into water, Cagayan showed the logo with “Outwit, Outplay, Outlast” changing to “Brains, Brawn, Beauty”, and San Juan del Sur had a lot of quotes about how great “Survivor Blood vs. Water” was), and showed these speculations via tweets at the end of the reunion to hype up the season.  A decent enough idea, but really fell flat, particularly as most of the ideas they chose to highlight were ridiculous, rather than anything that could actually get people talking and debating.  Most notably, they highlighted a tweet for the “Survivor Blood vs Water” preview which suggested that the location would have a lot of sharks.  Give me a break.  

No, it would not be until the preview for “Survivor Worlds Apart” where hearing from the contestants would become the norm (since technically “Survivor Cambodia” did not get a traditional “preview”, but instead a live vote reveal), and continue up through the present day.  From that season on, the only season to get a preview and NOT feature any of the new cast talking was “Survivor Island of the Idols”, which features Rob and Sandra instead.  True, it could be argued they count as “cast”, but I’d classify them more as “on-screen producers” myself.  Helping this trend was the large number of “vs” seasons during this time period.  Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty, Heroes vs. Healers, vs. Hustlers, David vs. Goliath.  The show really had a thing for dividing tribes along semi-arbitrary lines during this era, and having the cast talk about what it meant to be a part of their particular group was a good marketing strategy.  This is also where the average of hearing from six players per season became codified, since it fit neatly into this format.  After all, if you want to talk about some divide, you want an equal number of representatives from each side, and 6 divides evenly into both a 2 tribe and 3 tribe “versus” format.  Notably, seasons during this time that DIDN’T have such a divide were less likely to adhere to the 6 contestants rule, with “Survivor Game Changers” and “Survivor Ghost Island” only having two players make appearances, and “Survivor Winners at War” having 8 (though three of the latter were voice over, more easily identified due to the winners being more iconic than unknown players).  

So, if being unable to emphasize the location was the impetus behind emphasizing the twist, you’d think that being unable to emphasize some game-defining twist would be the impetus to emphasizing the cast to the degree we saw in the last preview.  Yet, while “Survivor 41” did not get a preview at all, “Survivor 42”, which purely reused twists, still emphasized that they were reusing said twists.  It had a decent number of the cast shown (8 overall, though 4 of these were purely in voiceover, rather than a full confessional), but also talks about the twists that the contestants will have to endure, as well as the accursed “Monster” metaphor the show keeps emphasizing.  So no, “Survivor 42” still fits right in with the preview family of this era.  

Which brings us to “Survivor 43”, and the results of the date I gathered.  First off if you, like me, thought we saw more of the cast in this preview than in previous ones, you’re not wrong.  The preview for “Survivor 43” holds the record for the most individuals we see a confessional from in the preview at 9.  Technically we heard from as many people in the preview for “Survivor Worlds Apart”, but that was purely in voice-over, and there might have been some doubling-up I missed.  For now, I’m fine saying “Survivor 43” holds the record for most people shown in its preview.  

Yet, even this explanation alone is not enough.  Yes, we have more people in this preview than any other, and yes, we have no twists emphasized instead, but it’s still only slightly more than some other previews.  Again, “Survivor Winners at War” had a respectable 8 identifiable players, barely less than “Survivor 43”, yet felt like we saw much less of them.  For that, I have a simple hypothesis as to why this is: It’s not what’s present in the preview, but what’s absent that makes the difference.  That something is Probst Narration.  

Yes, with the exception of those three exceptionally short previews at the end of the 20’s I mentioned, every season preview save for “Survivor 43” has had Probst narrating the action, giving us a hint of what’s to come.  Here, however, Probst is completely absent, just letting the cast speak for themselves.  The hype doesn’t come from Probst, but from the player, and THAT, dear reader, is the big departure.  With nothing else to distract from them, you’re focussed on the cast for 100% of the preview run time, something no other preview (that’s full-length) can boast.  That, I believe, is the major factor as to why it feels like we saw more of the cast than we did on previous season previews.  

Why would CBS make this switch?  Again, I can offer a couple of hypotheses, mostly based on trends of how the show has developed.  Over the course of its history, the show has tried, in each preview, to hype up everything BUT the cast.  They started with the location.  When the locations got reused, they emphasized the twists.  It was only when the twists began being about tribe divisions on the regular that they started putting in new cast members on the regular.  This may seem like it’s been going on for a while, but really, this has only been a thing for the past 6 years or so, at least regularly.  But this trend got us used to the idea, and with “vs” twists seeming to be a thing of the past, as well as back-to-back seasons being carbon-copies twist-wise, really the only thing LEFT is to emphasize the cast.  More cynically, one could argue that the show has stopped caring about spoilers.  After all, logic would dictate that the main reason not to show any of the new cast is to avoid the public getting spoilers about your new cast.  By showing half the cast in this preview, it could been seen as the show saying “Yeah, we know you’ll know the cast by now.  Go ahead and look, we don’t care anymore.”  Still, that’s perhaps a bit cynical, even for me.  More likely there’s a marriage of the two.  With the greater prevalence of internet culture than when the show started, coupled with the realities of staying in one location for filming permanently and needing to reveal the winner on the island due to COVID, hiding spoilers is that much harder.  CBS could fight, but if the public’s going to find out anyway, why not just get a great preview out of it?  Take the lemons of a spoiled cast, and make lemonade out of an engaging preview.

And that is why, whatever you think about the new style of preview, I suggest you get used to it, as it is likely here to stay.  Again, with no location or twist to newly emphasize, all the show has left is the cast.  They may tweak the style a little bit, but without the need to hide the cast for spoilers, expect this sort of preview to become the norm moving forward.  

And there you have it: A brief history of the “Survivor” season preview.  I hope you’ve enjoyed this little romp through history as much as I have!  As a bonus, here’s a couple of fun facts I noted during my research, but didn’t have a good place to include in the body of the work:

-While Probst narration is a mainstay of most previews, Probst himself very rarely appears on-camera in them.  I only remembered him being in the preview for “Survivor The Australian Outback”, and was prepared to write this off as an example of “Early Installment Weirdness”, and was thus surprised when he put in a brief appearance at the beginning of the preview for “Survivor The Amazon”.  The reasons why remain a mystery to me.  

-Much was made of the preview for “Survivor 42” intentionally deceiving us, putting the voiceover of Maryanne finding the idol over footage of Tori looking at a paper.  Yet, this is not the first time a preview has been misleading.  It’s happened a number of times over the course of the previews, but the first outright error I could find was in the preview for “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Probst specifically says there will be “16 castaways”, when there ended up being 18.  This could just be them changing the number of contestants after the preview was made, admittedly, but an error nonetheless.  

-While most season previews that feature the contestants try and show an equal number from both tribes, the major exception is “Survivor Micronesia” the first time the players are heard to talk in the preview.  They show an above-average number of players at a respectable 7, but all of those seven are from the “Fans” side.  None of the favorites are shown, a trend that continues through most All-Star type seasons.  Even “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” did not name the players, instead showing highlights from fan-favorite past seasons, which did show some players on the season (such as Coach), but also some who did not appear (such as Jonny Fairplay).  

-When you watch these preview back-to-back, you come to realize that producers have some shots/moments they love to favor as their B-roll for the previews.  Some are mundane shots that would be hard to pick out unless you’re looking for them.  For instance, they LOVE showing shots of people jumping off the ship during the Pearl Islands Marooning.  Others, however, are more notable and predictable.  I never thought I’d say this, but I tire of hearing Erik say “I want to give individual immunity to Natalie”.  When you see it used multiple times in subsequent previews, it loses its luster.  

Hope you’ve enjoyed this off-season content!  Keep an eye out for the next one!

-Matt

Title Credit and Idea to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 11: Canadian Civil War

You know, they’ve talked about this coming for a while now.  Sensationalist news headlines everywhere, portending the end of all things.  Even some semi-compelling evidence for it.  I must admit, though, that even if I DID subscribe to the idea, I did not expect it to be coming this far north.  

I also did not expect to be doing one of these right now, yet here we are.  Yes, a mere one episode before the finale, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This one really hurts.  Some of these “Mess-Ups” are slightly more jokey, but I legitimately feel bad about this one.  Last episode, when talking up the brilliance of this group unintentionally repeating “Survivor 41”, and outwitting the “Knowledge is Power” by having someone else hold the idol that was to be stolen.  However, I made it out to be purely Omar’s move.  In some ways, understandable.  Omar was the narrator for the whole thing, and he WAS the one who happened to get the information out of Drea.  But his move alone?  No.  He discussed the move with Lindsay, and together they came up with the move.  I’ve seen some people say Lindsay suggested the move, and thus should get all the credit.  They may be right; I can’t remember the exact order of the conversation, but I don’t usually go back and rewatch episodes to get these sort of facts straight, and I’m not going to start now.  Even in the most generous interpretation for Omar, though, Lindsay deserves at least equal credit, and I did not give it.  As such, I correct that here.  Lindsay is also an architect of this move, and deserves at least equal praise to what I gave Omar last episode.  

In some ways, it’s kind of fortuitous that I made this mess-up, as this move directly leads into our post-Tribal Council discussion for the episode.  Lindsay and Omar are both high off the outcome, as it went exactly as they had planned.  I will dock Lindsay a point for calling it a “Perfect” Tribal Council, since to my mind, such a title would belong only to a Tribal Council WITHOUT a “Do or Die”, or at least one where I wasn’t the one vulnerable to said “Do or Die”, but hey, she’s here.  Can’t fault her for being happy about that.  

In the middle of this euphoria comes the issue of Mike’s idol.  Omar gives it back because really, what choice did he have?  Yeah, keeping it keeps you safe for a round, but also invokes the wrath of Mike, a wrath well worth being afraid of.  And Omar should know; he weaponized it against Hai two episodes ago.  Mike does make a good show of saying how the idol is for the both of them, but in private, Mike admits that he “knows” Omar is coming for him, and so plans to turn on Omar.  Fair enough, since Omar is the biggest threat out there to win, and therefore someone Mike needs to take out at some point for him to have a shot at winning, but I find the justification oddly amusing.  With the other people Mike had a vendetta against, there was at least SOME slight, real or imagined, that put him on the warpath against them.  Chanelle with the “Shot in the Dark” safety vote, Hai with the supposed “puppet” comment.  But no one really egged Mike to turn on Omar.  So what does Mike do?  Does he say “Omar’s a threat and needs to go?”  No, Mike just HAS to turn it into some drama, specifically that Omar will come for him, despite Omar NEVER saying that in this episode (though he did discuss it in episodes previous, if we’re being completely fair).  Again, perfectly fine decision by Mike.  No complaints strategically.  Just funny to me that it can’t just be a strategy thing.  Someone HAS to be against him, or have slighted him, for Mike to justify mobilizing against them.  

Mike pitches this move to Maryanne, who admittedly does see the value in it.  She frames it as “Omar is a threat and needs to go.”, which again, can’t argue with.  So loyal is she to Mike, that she… Talks about how uncomfortable he’s feeling the next morning.  Way to keep that alliance under wraps, Maryanne.  

Ok, ok, she doesn’t mention the “Targeting Omar” part, but even that felt like a bit more disclosure than necessary.  Maryanne will have to wait, however, as Jonathan speaks, and per the edict of Probst, when Jonathan speaks, everyone else shuts up.  Specifically, Jonathan has now taken on the persona of “Captain Obvious”, telling us things that we already knew were blindingly true.  Specifically that Lindsay and Omar are a pair working against him, and this is the breakup of the Taku 4.  Wow, wonder where the hell you got that idea, Jonathan?  

This, however, is the excuse Mike needs to bring in Jonathan on the “Get Omar” plan.  Omar DOES catch them talking, but not before the deal is sealed, and so everything seems to be in motion.  

Speaking of motion, our reward challenge features a lot of it.  Contestants spin themselves around really fast to unspool rope from themselves.  Having done so, they cross a rope bridge and then a balance beam, on which they must untie keys to unlock puzzle pieces.  This, of course, means a puzzle at the end, with the solver winning reward for themselves.  

Now, contrary to how generic a descriptor that is, I actually quite like this challenge.  There are specifically two things about it that hit the mark for me.  One is the puzzle.  If you’re familiar at all with “Survivor” History, you will realize this is no ordinary puzzle.  This is what I call “The Kass Puzzle”.  More specifically, the puzzle that Kass solved on “Survivor Cagayan” to win her immunity in what is, in my opinion, the best challenge comeback in the history of the show.  A good puzzle on its own, but allowing me to relive this challenge brings me joy.  

The other reason is Maryanne.  Say what you will about her, the woman is making the MOST of this experience, and loving every minute of it.  Everyone else just kind does their spin as quickly and clinically as possible, but Maryanne goes all over the place, laughing all the way.  She even gets in some “Opposite Direction Spins” to try and cure the dizziness.  Doesn’t work, naturally, but the pleasure’s in the trying.  I hope, dear reader, that you at some point experience even 1/4 the joy that Maryanne felt doing that challenge.  You will truly be happy at that time.  

As this challenge involves a puzzle, Jonathan does not have much chance to win it, despite his decent lead from the physical portion.  Most everyone here has something of a chance to win it, but it’s Omar that ultimately takes the thing…

SMACK!

Sorry, a pig just flew into my window.  It’s not enough for Omar to enjoy his win, however.  We need to talk about how much it means to him as a fan, and what it will mean to his niece, whom he just cares SO MUCH about!  Subtle, show.  Very subtle.  While you’re at it, why don’t you photoshop in a sign that says “Dead Man Walking” around his neck? 

Because it would cover the awesome Emu Shirt, that’s why.  

Anyway, like last season, Omar has a choice between a healthier meal of chicken and veggies, or sugary foods like cake and cookies.  With no Deshawn to try and bargain for letters from home, Omar is instead left with the wrinkle of taking the former reward and two people with him, or the latter and three.  Correctly recognizing that the boost from food is going to be fleeting, Omar chooses the latter, and takes everyone but Lindsay and Jonathan.  Assuming that he and Lindsay had discussed this earlier, this move makes perfect sense.  No sense in giving Jonathan even fleeting strength, and you nullify the risk of people strategizing against you, since the two aren’t talking strategy at this point anyway.  

Case in point, both make a show of wanting to target Mike back at camp, though neither are particularly good liars, and it’s clear to everyone watching that they don’t trust each other.  Kind of hilarious, actually.  We get better strategizing once everyone gets back to camp.  We find out that Maryanne, despite that one earlier scene, is more on board with the “Boot Omar” plan than we thought, and she starts telling the few left who don’t know about her extra vote.  And yeah, given that this is still a semi-slim majority, this time it actually makes SENSE to tell people about your advantage.  Gives them more confidence in the plan, and makes defectors less likely.  Mike reciprocates by saying he can use his idol to protect them both, which makes Maryanne very happy since she has an idol ANYWAY, but now has an extra backup, effectively.  The only thing that can possibly go wrong is Lindsay or Omar winning immunity.  

Our immunity challenge is sadly not as good as the reward challenge.  Just your generic obstacle course with ladder puzzles, and a table maze at the end.  The one thing I think was pretty cool was getting a key up a ladder by moving its rungs back and forth.  That was clever.  

Not inherent to the challenge, but another thing that helps is the tension.  This challenge is surprisingly even overall, but it quickly becomes clear that Jonathan and Lindsay are our two table maze whizzes.  They go back and forth, and the music gives us some good fakeouts.  In the end, the more interesting choice of Lindsay wins.  Now, as Mike rightly notes, there is the possibility of Omar being immune by Lindsay’s talisman, now an idol, and so a backup plan must be put in place.  

Said backup plan is… Romeo.  Ok, I guess it makes sense.  Mike doesn’t want himself, Jonathan, or Maryanne gone, and with Lindsay and Omar potentially immune, only Romeo is left.  But if you’re talking about using him as a swing vote, maybe just let Jonathan go, and get one of Lindsay or Omar on the next round.  The “They’re taking up a seat at the end” argument is only for the likes of Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) who win no matter who they’re up against.  Mike has by no means the LOWEST chance of winning of this group, but he’s not a certainty like Cirie would be in any Final Tribal Council.  

The Omar plan is not completely dead, however.  Lindsay, fearing that her talisman will be put back in play should she use it, discusses NOT using it at all.  Now, THIS is the one true misstep of the episode, strategically and editing wise.  From a strategy perspective, while I get the fear of “It comes back into the game”, this is contradicted by the text of the advantage itself saying it expires at the Final Six.  You know, where you are RIGHT NOW!  Unless they blatantly change the rules on the spot (something that is, admittedly, not out of the question given how the show has been these past couple seasons), it will be powerless.  Moreover, by NOT playing it, you deprive yourself of the opportunity to show off in front of the jury, not to mention save an ally YOU NEED going forward.  Omar is, for all intents and purposes, drawing fire away from Lindsay.  If she wants to not be targeted, and thus need to win every immunity moving forward, she NEEDS Omar around.  She’s also probably the one person left who might have a realistic chance of beating Omar in the finals, so even if he does stick around to the end, there’s no rush.  

From an editors perspective, however, this REALLY should have been the misdirection for the episode.  Put this closer to the end, right before they march off, throw in a sound byte of Lindsay saying maybe she will play it after all, and BAM!  A decent mystery heading into Tribal Council.  But no, it’s taken as a near-certainty that she won’t, which leads Maryanne to spearhead the Omar plan.  Getting Romeo fully on board, she plans to split the votes.  She, Romeo, and her extra vote go on Omar, thus giving him the majority at 3-2-2 (Jonathan and Mike voting for Romeo for safety, and Lindsay and Omar voting for Jonathan, obviously).  Then, even if Omar is made safe, it’s still a tie, rather than an automatic Jonathan eviction.  Only a moron would be against this plan.  

Ok, ok, I exaggerate.  Jonathan and Mike do object to it being too complicated, Mike in particular saying Maryanne is trying to play a “too advanced” version of “Survivor”.  See, this is the Mike I was afraid we’d get pre-season, the one who only understands the most basic of strategy and becomes hard-headed in the face of anything more advanced.  What Maryanne is suggesting is the smart move, guys, and not rocket science.  Hell, ROMEO is the only person who might have an objection, as he’s an alternate target in that scenario, and yet he’s the one fully on board!  That might be because Maryanne did a masterful job convincing him they were just going for Omar, but still!  

That said, for all that I joke, these two men are NOT, in fact, morons, and I have no doubt they’ll fall in line with Maryanne’s superior plan before Tribal Council.  That said, such a plan requires things being played close-to-the-chest, and all do it masterfully here.  Brilliant strategy, but leads to a Tribal Council with not a lot to talk about.  Save, that is, for Omar’s final nail in the coffin, when he talks about being “Survivor Confident”, where you can never know for certain, but think you’re good.  

Yeah, guess who gets the rug pulled out from under them.  Go on.  Guess.  

While I fully acknowledge it was the correct strategic move for everyone save Lindsay, I can’t deny that I will miss Omar.  He and his Emu Shirt were great strategists on this season, and overall just fun and likable.  When he wasn’t shoving animal metaphors down our throats, he was a joy to have on screen, and I look forward to seeing him on a future returnee season.  Hell, he even leaves with a lot of class, correctly giving Maryanne credit for the boot.  Or the ABOOT, if you will.  Ah, Canadian jokes.  It’s a shame to see two countrymen go after each other like this.  

One or two slip-ups aside, this was still a solid episode.  Not much misdirection, but several fun moments, and well-crafted narrative, and a great downfall arc.  More believable misdirection might have been helpful, but you can’t have everything.  You can, however, have the tradition “Idol Speculation” rankings heading into the finale, however.  To quickly recap, this is where I talk about who I think has the best chance of winning in the finals.  HOW LIKELY that person is to make the finals does not factor in; this is merely who I think has a shot versus no shot.  

1. Lindsay-As always, the top spot is reserved for the person about how I can say “If they get to the end, they win.”   With Omar out of the picture, that honor belongs to Lindsay.  There’s no one else left who can say they’ve played as strategically over the entire season, so she’s got that facet on lockdown, but she has good arguments in other areas as well.  You like someone who’s good at challenges?  Lindsay so far is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with Jonathan in that department.  You like someone who’s good socially.  Tell me who Lindsay has pissed off.  Who?  No one, that’s who.  No, like most people in this position, Lindsay’s issue is getting to the end.  Her only true ally is gone, and she’s the only person truly on the “wrong” side of the vote this episode.  Granted, she has a decent shot to immunity her way to the end, but still, uphill battle.  

2. Maryanne-Before tonight’s episode, Maryanne would have been lower on this list.  While she did a good job hanging on despite being targeted, and had the second-most “Stuff” after Drea, she hadn’t really done a lot with it, and I could see that plus her loose lips docking her points with the jury.  Tonight, however, she proved her worth.  She publicly got out what the jury perceived as the biggest strategic threat, and that retroactively gets you a lot of points.  Sort of a “The king is dead, long live the king” type thing.  Think what happened with David on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  He was the big strategic threat, but when he was eliminated, the person seen as eliminating him got all the strategic credit.  Granted that honor was placed incorrectly on Adam when it was Hannah who did the orchestrating in that scenario, but you take my point.  No one will misplace the glory of eliminating Omar after that performance.  Maryanne’s one true obstacle is her personality.  Multiple people have referred to her as “annoying”, and again, loose lips could come back to haunt her.  Unless she REALLY turned off the jury just by being herself, though, I think she’s in a decent spot to win, provided her strategic rival in Lindsay is voted off.  

3. Mike-Mike is in many ways the opposite of Maryanne.  People love his personality.  That’s part of how he’s stuck around so long.  He’s a straight-shooter, but likable and funny.  People just want to be around him.  That said, his strategic game is lacking.  Not bad, just not going to set the world on fire.  If the jury is heavily into that aspect of the game, Mike’s in trouble.  Still, he’s acquitted himself well enough to garner some votes, and even win so long as he’s not up against a stronger strategic player.  

4. Jonathan-It is how unusual having a player of Jonathan’s archetype this late in the game is that gives Jonathan any hope of winning.  The dude’s strongest argument is that he was a super-obvious target, particularly with how Probst was building him up pre-merge, yet still made it this far.  Can Jonathan articulate that?  Not from what we’ve seen, but you never know.  Sadly, between him not looking too good at the split-Tribal Council, and juries these days respecting the physical game less, I would say Jonathan is the most likely “Xander” of the season: Someone who gets to the end and SEEMS like they should win, but just don’t have what the jury wants.  

5. Romeo-It speaks to the quality of this season that someone like Romeo is the bottom contender of this group.  Romeo has done very well playing the decoy boot, and worming his way further and further despite nominally being on the bottom.  That may seem like weak strategy, but it’s basically what won Sandra the game twice.  Romeo also has some strategic chops to his name, very well running the Ika Tribe pre-merge.  Sadly, as we saw with Sherri on “Survivor Caramoan”, pre-merge actions often count for very little on the jury.  Moreover, while Romeo’s strategy can be a winning one, you need to be up against really unlikeable people to pull it off.  Romeo has no such people here, and thus is the least-likely to win.  Hardly a bad player, though.  

And there we go.  Let us see how the finale plays out next week!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 8: Return of the Lex

You know, of all the players I invoke on a semi-regular basis, Lex van den Berghe of “Survivor Africa” may be the most out-there one.  Now granted, he’s a classic character; hardly the worst person to call out.  But he’s neither someone whose game I despise, and thus bring up as a negative example, or one of my favorite whom I praise at every opportunity.  Granted, I like Lex overall as a character.  Dude is complex, and definitely funny.  Seriously, his commentary on “Survivor All-Stars” is worth a watch if you want to laugh your ass off, if you’ve never done so.  But he doesn’t exactly break my “Top 10 players of all time” list or anything.  He’s maybe in the Top 50, but not much beyond that.  Yet, he gives such specific material to work with, that I can’t help myself.  

Such is the case tonight.  Evidently Lex took some voodoo lessons from Butch, and has made one of Hai, channeling his spirit through the doll so that Hai reacts similarly to how he does at the top of the episode.  Romeo, you see, was on the outs of that last vote, and so took a leaf out of T-Bird’s book (also “Survivor Africa”) and threw a vote on the person he perceived to be in charge, in this case Hai.  Hai, understandably, does not take it well, going around interrogating everyone as to who it was, when Romeo gives a decent denial.  The only real differences are that Hai does not go to quite the extremes that Lex did on Africa, and he’s actually right in who voted for him.  

All that said, props to Romeo for overall playing this well.  Apart from one or two kind of awkward acting moments, does a good job saying the right things to prevent any more flak from falling in him, while at the same time recognizing his position and what needs to be done for his game.  The comparison to T-Bird is 100% a compliment.  And yes, I am still bitter at the fan base for not putting T-Bird on “Survivor Cambodia.”  I voted for her every day; I have the right to say “Ya done goofed.” You put on Monica Padilla (“Survivor Samoa”) when we could have had T-Bird.  

The next morning, we keep going old school, and no surprise, it’s Rocksroy who gets that ball rolling.  He gets frustrated over the larger lack of work ethic in the camp, citing himself, Mike, and Jonathan as the three biggest workers around the camp.  The three meet at the water well, and agree that with Hai and Omar on board, they can make an overall majority to run the game.  Fair enough plan for them, but two problems: One, this is framed as a “Guys Alliance”, which is about as painful as every time a “Women’s Alliance” is brought up, though this has the added negativity of it seeming like the “strong” pick on the “weak”, not to mention making for boring tv.  Two, and perhaps more immediately concerning, Omar and Hai have basically no reason to join such an alliance.  They recognize that they would be on the bottom, and unlikely to immunity their way to the end in order to save themselves.  Thus, they have little incentive to comply with the plan, and both openly mock it in confessional.  What little chance the plan had is further torpedoed by having ROCKSROY, the man who openly admitted that he has a terrible social game, pitch this plan to them.  I suppose this is technically a third “problem” with the plan, but one that was avoidable even with the strategy, unlike the first two.  All this really does is make Rocksroy a target.  Good going, man!

Speaking of targets, it’s time for our challenge, where two people will win immunity, and two will be voted out.  Look, this is normally where I get hyped for them having a double-elimination with all 10 people left voting in one big group, but we all know this won’t be the case.  “Survivor” is committed to their “Split into 2 groups of 5” at the Final 10, and on paper I can understand why.  It is a truth universally acknowledged that Pagongings are boring, or at least create a boring stretch of episodes.  Granted, more recent seasons, due to smaller tribes and sometimes multiple tribe shake-ups, tend to not be straight tribe Pagongings, but rather a supermajority Pagonging the minority, so the point still stands.  Thus, the show hopes that such a shake-up will put the minority in power on one tribe, and/or force the majority to eat each other early.  On paper, this makes sense.  But, after SEVERAL seasons of this, it needs to be acknowledge that it has NEVER worked!  Partly  this is just due to luck, but EVERY SINGLE TIME, the majority just gets, well, the majority on both teams, and it has ALMOST never led to any shake-ups.  Again, I get the temptation, and it was worth a shot.  At some point, however, you need to acknowledge it isn’t working, and try something different.  That is the case with this twist at Final 10.  A worthy attempt, but it has failed.  TRY SOMETHING ELSE!  

Our teams are Hai, Omar, Mike, Romeo, and Rocksroy against Jonathan, Lindsay, Maryanne, Tori, and Drea, playing in the “Pyramid Balance” challenge first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  It remains unchanged, save for the waters once again being rough.  Nearly snapping Rocksroy’s neck not being enough, now it needs to throw contestants in the air like it just does not care.  Which it probably doesn’t.  Thus, it becomes less about “Who wants it more?” and more about “Who has the best sea legs?”  Hai quickly wins on his side, but stays in since the overall winner between both teams gets kebabs for their team, as well as the right to go second to Tribal Council.  Jonathan and Lindsay are our combatants on the other side, with Jonathan ultimately winning out, both immunity and the food.  Gotta admit, despite the guy’s challenge prowess, this one surprised me.  Men are traditionally worse at challenges that involve balance, as their center of gravity is higher up (in the shoulders, compared to women’s, which is in the hips), and Jonathan being so top-heavy, I would have thought he would be out early  Good on him proving me wrong, though.  

Hai and his team get sent to Taku beach to strategize.  They talk like it’s a step down from the merge beach, which it may be, but the shelter looks decent enough, all things considered.  It’s not Rupert’s hole in the ground from “Survivor All-Stars”, or the Younger Men’s “Four Fronds on a Tepee” from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Strategy, unsurprisingly, quickly coalesces around Romeo being the one to go home, with even Romeo seeming to accept it, saying he just doesn’t fit in with the machismo around camp.  Fortunately for him, Omar in particular still has a chip on his shoulder about Rocksroy, though he also brings up the fair point that Romeo is a possible ally for him down the line, while Rocksroy is, to put it mildly, inflexible.  We haven’t seen this much reluctance to change the plan since Joe Del Campo (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  As such, he, Romeo, and Hai hatch a firm plan against Rocksroy, which is honestly probably the smarter of the two options.  Their analysis of their position in the “Guys Alliance” is correct, so they have no reason to stick to it.  Keeping Romeo around keeps their options open, and while the current overall majority might not be happy with the move, Rocksroy is not so integral or so well-liked that they’ll have hell to pay for making such a move.  

Really, the biggest drawback is that Mike would be left out in this scenario, and we’ve seen how he feels about being left out.  Hai corrects this problem by, well, talking with Mike about the plan.  Mike is unhappy about it, and talks about possibly not doing it, but we all know that’s BS.  Mike will stick with the numbers in the end, as well he should, and Rocksroy is obviously going to be the boot of this group.  

Our other group, however, is a bit more of an interesting story.  Like Romeo, Tori would seem the obvious choice, but also like Romeo, there is incentive for the others to not follow said plan.  Drea’s pile of stuff has grown so large that even Jonathan, whom Lindsay will later describe as “Not very strategic.”, takes notice.  As such, he decides to organize everyone else to blindside her.  Which, much as I want Tori to finally be gone, is a move that makes sense for them all.  Having stuff on your side is one thing, but Drea just has SO MUCH STUFF that it can’t be ignored.  Plus, you still have Maryanne to be your “Stuff Supplier.”

Like with the “Guys Alliance” earlier, however, the flaw in the plan is in the messenger.  Jonathan tells us that he’s trying not to be “That big guy” who just bosses everyone around and acts like he owns the game just because of his strength.  Which is true.  We’ve seen shades of it here and there, but for the most part he’s kept his cool.  Now, whether due to immunity or just dwindling patience, Jonathan snaps, and starts talking down to people in regards to his plans, which rubs Maryanne the wrong way, such that she chats more openly with Tori than perhaps might be advised.  

But wait, there’s more!  It’s not just those who personally annoy him that he’s unreasonable with!  Lindsay, whom we’ve only seen be close to Jonathan at this point, brings up the “Hey, what if Drea plays her idol?” scenario to Jonathan.  She points out, correctly, that Maryanne might go at that point, which would get rid of a lot of their edge at the moment.  As such, splitting between Drea and Tori might be wise at this juncture.  Jonathan takes this reasonable idea, and throws it away entirely, evidently on the basis that he “Doesn’t trust Tori.”  Fine.  Don’t trust Tori.  You can still split the votes!  It’s not like Tori and Drea are going to work together at this point!  Seriously, Jonathan is not as bad as many men in his archetype, but loss of respect points this episode.  

Even though we get two Tribal Councils tonight, it really just feels like one.  The first Tribal Council, with Hai’s group, can pretty much just be “Yadda Yadda’d” away.  Absolutely zero mystery, and not even any fun banter.  When the highlight of your Tribal is Hai commenting on his lack of body fat, you’ve got issues.  Rocksroy does go, and while I’d say it was the smarter move overall, I am sorry to see Rocksroy go.  Granted, keeping Romeo around probably keeps things more interesting strategically, and I hardly dislike the guy, but I just connected with Rocksroy a bit more.  Possibly because his archetype is so much rarer in this age of “Survivor”, but I find him more intriguing than Romeo, despite the simplicity of his strategy.  No disrespect to Romeo meant, though.  He’s awesome as well, and I look forward to seeing his strategy play out moving forward.  

What we lose in intrigue in the first Tribal, however, we make up for in the second.  You see, since Rocksroy was voted out first, he gets to sit in on the jury, along with Chanelle.  Thus, this group KNOWS he was the boot, and they can’t help but notice a pattern developing, even if it’s just a subconscious one.  Yep, two black people are the first two members of the jury, and if blindsides go as planned, it’ll be three in a row.  Fortunately, Drea is quick to inform us this will not be the case, as she will be playing her idol to prevent this.  Honestly can’t blame her.  With all the stuff she has, might as well use some of it, both to lower threat level and buy yourself more time.  Drea then talks about the problems of implicit bias and how it affects people, both in day to day life and on “Survivor”, which at first might seem like unintentional guilt-slinging at the attempt to blindside her, but it’s not.  She was aware of the plan.  It was intentional guilt-slinging.  

Maryanne, also being black, chimes in to talk about how she notices the same issues, and thus will also be playing her idol tonight.  With Drea’s proclamation, can’t really blame her, since she would be a viable alternate target.  Our group whispers to come to a Tori consensus, though why they need to whisper I can’t say, since I would assume, with Maryanne, Drea, and Jonathan immune, Tori would be the logical boot.  Only potential misstep here is that Maryanne says the quiet part out loud, outright saying she’s voting for Tori, but since there’s little that Tori can do about it, it’s a minor thing at best.  And hey, while we have had individual discussions about diversity this season, this is the first time this season we’ve seen a community come together to talk about their lived experience, one of the few things “Survivor 41” had going for it over this season.  Good to see this one can hold its own in that territory as well.  Maryanne and Drea manage to marry emotion and articulation, explaining their points well while also making us, the audience, FEEL their pain.  One of the best discussions I’ve seen about this issue in a long time, including “Survivor 41”

TOO BAD JONATHAN’S HERE!  Just when the conversations winding down, Jonathan HAS to butt in with “Hey, I’m not a racist!”  News flash, bud: If you have to say you’re not racist, YOU’RE MOST LIKELY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY RACIST!  Look, Jonathan may be telling the truth when he says that consciously, race has nothing to do with his targets, but that’s not the issue here.  It could be implicit bias (which is in most people, and something we as a society need to work on), or it could just be coincidence.  Overall, though, the point is that you are stepping on these women’s lived experience, telling them, in effect, that what they see and feel is not true.  I don’t care if you’re hurt or offended by that; that is not your place.  Sit down, let them have their platform, then show through your actions, not your words, that you are not, as an individual racist.  It doesn’t help that after the conversation dies down again that Probst goes BACK to Jonathan for his thoughts, though Jonathan does at least have the grace to apologize, and leave the door open for some discussion.  Maryanne and Drea clarify they don’t hate him, but need to talk about their experience.  Could have gone a lot worse, but MAN did Jonathan not come out of this looking good.  

With all the emotion in the air, Probst smells an opportunity for a drama moment, and offers to let everyone skip the formal vote, and just come to a consensus.  Naturally, that consensus is Tori, and we now see her one recourse: The Shot in the Dark.  Yes, this is the one way Maryanne’s proclamation could backfire.  Fortunately for Maryanne, and us as a viewing audience, Tori continues the trend of the shot being useless, and goes home.  I am THRILLED!  Of the choices available at this Tribal Council, definitely the smarter choice, and while she played better than I would have guessed, her arrogance, coupled with her outside-the-game actions, left her the one person remaining I just didn’t care for.  As such, very happy to see her go.  

A jam-packed episode, but one that overall did pretty well.  They made the most of having one straightforward vote by focussing on the less straightforward vote, and hit those mirror neurons very well with Tribal Council #2.  Granted, time is still an issue, with them packing too much into too short a time frame, but with less people and less “stuff” hopefully the upward trend can continue!

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.