Rested and ready, it is time once again to explore alternate timelines. How one small change might leave a big impact on something. Me being me, we’re of course going to use this thought experiment to look purely at “Survivor”, because clearly that’s really important!
In all seriousness, it is my honor to have you back here for “Survivor What-Ifs?”, the blog where we make one little change on a given season and see how it makes things play out differently both on that season, and on subsequent seasons. Our subject for today is “Survivor Ghost Island”, one of the more maligned seasons, both for a fairly predictable outcome, and for starting a lot of the trends people are saying are ruining modern “Survivor”. I tend to be kinder to this season than most, but I’ll admit that’s partly because I really enjoyed the dominant alliance, and thought the dynamic between the two leaders was interesting enough to keep the season from being terrible. I also admired the certain amount of restraint production showed with the “Ghost Island” twist. Granted, the latter is more of a “Could have been worse” situation, but in this day and age, I’ll take what I can get. Still, even as someone who defends this season more than others, I won’t deny it has some big problems, and while I would consider it “ok” it’s definitely far from being on the greats. Perhaps, though, one little change may make that different…
Before we discuss said change, however, a couple of quick bits of business: Since it’s been a while since we’ve done one of these blogs, let me give a quick refresher on the format. The blog will be divided into three sections. “The Impact” will look at what the exact change is to the timeline, and how it affects the episode it occurs in. “The Fallout” will look at how that change impacts the rest of the season. “The Legacy” will look at how this change impacted the show down the road, both in terms of returnee seasons, and how the season would have been looked back on.
Second, a reminder that there are SPOILERS ahead. It’s difficult to talk about changing the timeline without talking about how things went down in our time. Thus, be aware that if you haven’t seen “Survivor Ghost Island” or any subsequent seasons, you read at your own risk. Duly warned, let us jump in.
THE IMPACT
While there is some debate about where, exactly, Ghost Island goes “wrong”, as a season, I think most would agree that the death knell for anything interesting happened when Chris became the merge boot. He was really the only major force speaking out against the pairing of Dom and Wendell, and once he was gone, their march to the end was all but assured. All the more frustratingly, he HAD an idol to save himself. One that was only good for one extra Tribal Council! Almost no reason not to play it, since he knew he was likely getting votes, had no vote of his own, and SAW Dom play a legacy advantage! Yet he didn’t. And thus, the season suffers.
So what if he does? What if circumstances get Chris to play his idol? By my own self-imposed rules, I can’t have him have a brain-wave about this, of course. However, luck-based circumstances COULD make Chris play his idol. Recall that, when he got said idol, it was only good for one Tribal Council. However, Chris could play 50/50 guessing games, at the risk of losing his vote, to give it more Tribal Councils it could be played at. Such a luck-based thing definitely falls under the purview of “Survivor What-Ifs?”, and could definitely change how Chris uses his idol.
In our timeline, Chris got his first guess right, before getting the second one wrong. This gave Chris a reason not to play his idol at the Tribal Council he goes home at. But what if he got the first one wrong? Now Chris’ idol is only good at this Tribal Council, and even if he did make a fairly large mistake in not playing his idol in our timeline, I do not think Chris is stupid enough to not play an idol at the only Tribal Council it’s good for. As a cascade effect of this choice, Chris is now immune at the merge, along with Dom.
So what happens then? Thankfully, we had a split vote in our timeline, which would likely be no different in this timeline, so we can be assured that backup boot Libby goes, becoming the first member of the jury. Thus, the merge will be further impacted in the next section.
As an aside, this also means we likely don’t get Chris’ Ponderosa rap, at least not right away. A fact that I personally rejoice in, but I know makes a lot of the fanbase cry.
THE FALLOUT
If you were to force me to say honestly what I thought would happen with this timeline change, most likely what happens is that Chris goes one one episode later, and the season proceeds pretty much as we know it, just with Chris and Libby swapping boot order. Chris just did not have the social capital to do much. Heck, part of the reason he went at the merge in our timeline was because he was an easy consensus boot. That said, just ending blog with “And everything else was the same, the end.” would be boring. So, is there a cascade effect from here that could lead things to go differently?
In fact, I would say there are two. The simple one is that Chris wins immunity. Dude was good in challenges; there’s always the chance he could have pulled out a win. Then, in the interest of ending the civil war amongst the original Naviti, Domenick might go just to end the argument.
Slightly more complicated is how Chris might be able to leverage that last Tribal Council. While Chris didn’t have MUCH social capital to work with, it’s not NONE. Him getting votes might have been the wake-up call he needed to be more diplomatic. With him then out of the danger zone of “Easy consensus boot goes” he found himself in at the merge, I could see Chris making basically the argument I just made to the rest of Naviti. “We need to be united, but Domenick’s witch hunt against me only divides us.” With a bit more time to think, it’s possible Naviti might choose to rally around Chris rather than Domenick. If so, then Domenick goes at the second post-merge Tribal Council, and we’ve got ourselves a timeline worth talking about!
Regardless of whichever way it happens, a bit part of Chris’ being saved is due to him playing up the “Naviti Strong” trends we saw in our timeline. Therefore, it would only make sense in the altered timeline if Ghost Island ended up being a pretty straight Pagonging. Michael, Jenna, Lauren, and Donathan all go out one after another, barring any shenanigans with the split Tribal Council at the final 10, and it’d be tough for them to get the numbers mathematically at that point anyway. Thus, the Naviti alliance is somehow even MORE dominant in this timeline than in our own.
While “Naviti Strong” does keep Chris in the game longer, it does create a problem for Chris. We’ll call it “The Problem of Wendell”. The issue is that, while Wendell is not as disliked by Chris as Domenick was (Wendell’s opinions on Chris’ rap skills notwithstanding), Wendell’s not exactly happy that Chris knocked out his number one ally. Wendell, however, probably has the smarts to go the Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) route, and simply fold himself back into the majority, and wait for the time to strike. Further, Wendell is a threat to Chris just simply running away with immunity all the way to the end, and at some point, Chris would be vulnerable. Given his relative lack of social capital amongst the Naviti, I’d say it’s fair to assume that Chris goes out at some point. He makes it farther, and is more of a strategic force, but saving himself with an idol does not win him the season.
With no competition, then, does Wendell still win the game, just not in quite the same way? Again, no. Wendell was great in challenges, but even in our timeline, he wasn’t unbeatable. He’s more well-liked then Chris, but with no more Malolo to vote out, and no larger physical threats left (save Sebastian, and let’s be honest, Sebastian did not have the puzzle skills to be considered enough of a “challenge threat” to shield Wendell), Wendell becomes a target. So, who does become the driving force post-merge, then? Why, the alliance of Kellyn, Desiree, and Chelsea, of course! Yes, an alliance that existed within our own timeline, only stopped due to Domenick and Wendell outmaneuvering them while they were still stuck on “Naviti Strong”. Without that pair, and with “Naviti Strong” being even more of the driving force of the post-merge, there’s no reason those three don’t waltz into the final three basically uncontested.
Of them, I’d be willing to bet that Chelsea wins. Despite being purpled on our television screens, all post-season interviews indicate that Chelsea was both well-liked by the cast, and a strategic driving force behind the scenes. Kellyn might have been the face of Naviti, but that doesn’t mean she was as well-liked, and we’ve seen how the “mother” character often doesn’t get the credit they deserve at the end.
A Chelsea win means there’s a retroactive change to the season, specifically in how it’s edited. The product we see is COMPLETELY different from the one we get, because production doesn’t try to hide Chelsea’s game. Far from it, they’d actually try and promote her as this black-widow-esque mastermind in the same vein as Parvati. It probably wouldn’t work that well. No disrespect to Chelsea, but unless she had some quality stuff they left on the cutting-room floor (along with her strategic talk), she doesn’t pop off the screen. Probably remembered as a solid winner strategically, but not one of the most entertaining one’s we’ve ever seen. Sort of the female equivalent of Tommy in our own timeline.
THE LEGACY
This season leaves us little to talk about in the way of returnees, mostly because there was only one returnee season that aired after this one, and that was Winners at War. This may come as a shock, but I don’t think Chelsea was getting the invite. Again nothing against her, but I don’t see her being an entertaining-enough winner to get the call back. MAYBE, if she had some really good moments we just didn’t see in our timeline, she could take Michele’s spot, but “Survivor Kaoh Rong” is still probably seen as the better season in our timeline, so all else being equal, I’d give Michele the edge here.
Of course, this leaves Wendell’s spot on that season open for another guy to come in. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Mike Holloway of “Survivor Worlds Apart” ends up filling in that spot. We know he was considered in our timeline, and likely only dropped because all the slots for men filled up with people production preferred. With no Wendell in the mix, that’s probably just the opening Mike needs to get in. That probably changes the course of how that season goes drastically, at least after the swap, but that would also merit a blog all its own, so I’m not going to go into detail here.
In terms of discourse AROUND the season, however, there’s a couple of big changes. First and foremost, the discussion around bias against older women becomes even more of a “thing” that it was in our timeline. People were salty enough at Chrissy’s loss on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, but now we’ve got two older women, who were good strategic leaders, losing back to back. Admittedly to different archetypes (I don’t think anyone would say that Ben and Chelsea are at all similar), but still, the conversation around that bias becomes more heated, and there’s a lot more of a drive to give the “older” women a chance. Probably increases the chances of the likes of Janet on later seasons, since players are not immune to public feedback, particularly those players who follow the online community closely.
The other effects of the season changing are slightly less notable, but worth at least a mention. Tie votes at Final Tribal Council, while still a specter over the audience, are not a thing we experience to this day with the change. Chelsea winning, of course, also slightly decreases the diversity of the winner pool, since we’ve eliminated a black winner in Wendell to put her in instead. Given that the petition for more diversity in casting didn’t come about until post-COVID, I don’t think this does anything radical like move the timeline for when that happens up, but it is more fuel to the fire. And finally, this change probably elevates some characters (particular Chelsea and Desiree) to more prominence than they had in our timeline, while Domenick loses some favor conversely, and except for some proposed “Second Chance” ballots, you probably don’t hear about him much in the community. On the plus side, Wendell stays big enough of a character that his and Brice’s podcasts and parties still happen.
The big question, as always, is “Does this change make the season better or worse?” Honestly, in this case, the change probably doesn’t impact how the season is seen overall that much, but if it does, the season comes out looking slightly worse. The problem is that the real thing that killed this season was the “Naviti Strong” sentiment that no one could overcome, leading to a predictable outcome. Since that sentiment is only stronger in this timeline, that doesn’t change. Admittedly this season is less frustrating, since there’s less of a chance for anyone to talk about overthrowing Naviti. On the other hand, it’s also more boring, since there’s not even a HINT of going against the Pagonging in this timeline. In addition, as mentioned, we lose out on the tie vote, one of the few things that helps this season stand out from the others. Given the “girl power” theme of the final three, there’s probably a hard core of fans who love the season for the strategy, but they’re very much a minority.
Maybe not the most exciting change to talk about first, but I do find it intriguing how different paths can lead to the same feeling. Then again, perhaps I’m full of it, and got this completely wrong. Let me know in the comments what you think would happen in a timeline such as this! In addition, I’m always looking for more timeline changes to blog about, so feel free to submit those there as well. Rest assured, you will be credited if your request is chosen! Some general guidelines for submissions to be considered are as follows:
1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season. This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way. Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical. As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog. I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style. Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment. It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…
2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about. Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season. Would it ever happen? No. So there’s no point in writing about it.
3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way. Simply changing up the boot order is not enough. Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both. As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9. I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory. Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched. Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.
In addition to these hard-and-fast guidelines, there are also what I call “Flexible Guidelines”. As the name would imply, these can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:
4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”. From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good. The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of. I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip. Nothing knocking them, of course. I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them. So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.
5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above. I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”. He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add. I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out. Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.
6. Try Not To Repeat Seasons: This is by far the most flexible of the flexible guidelines, particularly as many seasons have multiple inflection points with a fascinating change to dissect. However, to prevent a lot of repetition, I try and prioritize scenarios from a season I haven’t done a “What-If?” on yet, over ones that I’ve already covered one scenario on. You can feel free to submit scenarios for seasons I’ve already looked at, but bear in mind that I’m unlikely to cover them until I’m out of ideas for “What-Ifs?” on seasons I haven’t done yet. For reference, at the time of this writing, I have done scenarios from the following seasons: Africa, Marquesas, Pearl Islands, All-Stars, Palau, Guatemala, Exile Island, Micronesia, Gabon, Samoa, Heroes vs. Villains, Redemption Island, One World, Philippines, Blood vs. Water, Game Changers, Ghost Island, Island of the Idols.
It’s good to be back writing for y’all! Look forward to more to come!
-Matt