Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Episode 3: The Castaways of Alcatraz

Well, three episodes in, and we return to form.  It was a fun experiment while it lasted, and I’d hoped it would go on longer, but some things just beg for renewal.  Thus, it is my displeasure to once again subject you, loyal readers, to that recurring segment:

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Yes, Even with an extra-long break, and a new season of “Survivor” to be excited about, it seems I can’t even go three episodes without missing points from the previous one that I had hoped to discuss.  To be fair, though, most of them revolve around Xander, a character I don’t think about too much.  Nothing against the guy; from what we’ve seen of him on the season he seems nice enough, but he plays into the “dude bro” archetype, which is just not one I find engaging.  But in doing so, I failed to give him credit where credit is due, in that he made the “Butterflies are dead relatives saying ‘Hi’” phrase about as natural as it could be, segueing into it when Probst asked about the level of deprivation this season, playing the saying off as him being delirious from lack of water.  Now all he has to do is wait for the other two tribes to say their phrase, then call back to his phrase as a “joke”, and then everything will be money for Xander.  That is, assuming he survives that long.  Not only is he on a tribe where the alliance is clearly against him, but he made the rookie mistake of reaching into stuff to look for idols/advantages without first poking in with a stick to avoid any snakes or other creatures that might bite him.  His loss.  

Oh, and the second place tribe at the immunity challenge also got some fishing gear.  Good for them.  

Moving onto our episode proper, we start with Yase at night, making you think there might be some drama or fallout from the last Tribal Council.  If so, you CLEARLY don’t know what “Survivor” is all about.  Don’t let the flashbacks and abundance of personal stories from the cast fool you: “Survivor” is all about the advantages, and NOTHING else!  Sure, we get some brief pathos from Liana, who has buyer’s remorse about not voting out Xander last night (a move more understandable in light of the information that Evvie had maybe 10 minutes with Tiffany before Tribal Council.  If Tiffany whipped herself up into paranoia all afternoon, any argument, no matter how logical, is not going to undo that, and then better to go with your alliance), but it’s brushed over pretty quickly.  Why, rather than discuss what happened at Tribal last night, or what Xander plans to do, we need to see Tiffany finding yet ANOTHER “Beware Advantage”.  But whereas the one Xander found was broken to the point of being a net loss against him, this one is barely any loss for Tiffany.  Her “risk” is that she has to sneak out of camp.  Ok, correct me if I’m wrong, but has this EVER caused problems for anyone?  This has been a thing since “Survivor Cambodia”, and not ONCE has a person been caught or got in trouble for doing so.  It’s almost like half-asleep people aren’t paying attention to your every move, and if they DO happen to see you out, they probably just think “They’re using the bathroom” and turn over.  While the filming at night is cool, it’s time for this twist to die.  It adds almost nothing (the occasional funny scene, such as Tony giving Sarah camouflage makeup on “Winners at War” notwithstanding), and takes away time we could be spending on other stuff.  

Really, the bigger problem is making sure no one sees you get the advantage, since it’s hidden in the camp firewood piles.  Tiffany is seen, but by her alliance.  No harm done to her.  Heck, even if Xander HAD seen her take it, what was he going to do?  He still has no vote.  

Brad on Ua is in a much better position to find it.  After JD quotes some “Survivor Cagayan” (First Trish’s “Do you think I’m stupid?”, then Woo’s “Ninja Stealth Mode” and “Sonic Speed” lines.  The latter will be appropriate later, but to his credit, JD has a good Woo impression), we see that everyone on the tribe is joined with him and laughing with him.  Save Brad, who is back working hard at camp, commenting “kids will be kids”.  After several shots of him being near the advantage but missing it, he leads himself into finding it by talking about how “hard work pays off”.  Brad is the most interesting person of the three to find this advantage, but we’ll come back to him in a bit.  

In a bit of a twist, Luvu starts off NOT talking about their advantage, but instead some strategy dynamics.  What’s this?  Actually looking at the inner workings of the tribe?  Unfathomable!  No, Sydney is spilling the beans about Naseer to literally EVERYBODY on the tribe.  She talks about how he woke her up to talk about getting out Danny, and then Deshawn.  We see from some cleverly-edited flashbacks to the night before that while she’s exaggerating in terms of her not actually being asleep, she is essentially telling the truth.  After Deshawn unsurprisingly informs us that Naseer is now top of his hit list, we see that Naseer is not blind to the goings-on of the tribe.  He notes everyone talking without him, and gets the sense he may be on the outs.  He tries to clear the air in front of the tribe, because being open in front of the tribe has worked so well for past contestants.  We don’t get to see how it worked for Naseer, though, as Sydney spots her tribe’s Beware Advantage, and grabs it in the open, to ensure Naseer doesn’t get it.  Reasonable move, but Sydney is the one person whose reaction to getting the advantage I don’t fully understand.  Tiffany shares it with her alliance.  Since they were nearby, it’s the right thing to do.  Brad (for now) keeps it to himself, again, the right thing to do.  But Sydney?  She takes it in front of EVERYONE, yet, from what we see, confides in NO ONE.  Look, obviously Sydney shouldn’t make the information entirely public, but maybe confide in someone like Deshawn, who she seems to be close with?  That way she has someone in her corner should she be targeted for having a suspected advantage.  But no, just go off on your own.  That did a lot of good for Naseer, I’m sure it’ll be good for you, too!

Back at Ua, after JD gives an argument as to why EVERYONE could have an idol at this point, we see that Brad is on a roll, as we see in flashback that he also found the OTHER Beware Advantage, the one with an idol.  And yes, he gets the dumbest saying of them all, the one about “Broccoli is just a bunch of small trees”.  Frankly, Luvu has it easiest, as by process of elimination, they have to say “I’m as confused as a goat on AstroTurf”, the phrase that’s probably the easiest of the three to work into banter with Probst.  Genie is there with him when he finds it, but this only tightens the bond between Brad and Genie (still waiting on the logic behind her stray Ricard vote in episode 1, by the way).  It also gives Brad information, as reading the other code phrases, he recognizes that Xander has his idol, and Luvu hasn’t found their idol yet.  However, this is all getting to be a bit much for Brad, and he feels he needs some help.  As such, he shares his finds with Genie (after finding the second Beware Advantage at camp) and Shan.  Wait, what?  Ok, Genie I understand.  She seems tightest with Brad, and already knows about the idol.  Might as well go whole hog.  But Shan?  You have to know after that first Tribal Council that she was the swing vote.  Why clue her in?  Sure enough, Shan is concerned about the amount of power Brad is getting.  Great play there, Brad!  At least she can help you “Sneak out of camp.”

Oh, wait, scratch that, Brad doesn’t need anyone’s help!  He just builds a body double out of some cloth and flippers!  Dude, get over it.  You’re walking down the beach, not escaping from Alcatraz.  While this is a funny moment, on par with the Tony/Sarah camouflage thing mentioned earlier, I maintain that this whole thing is pointless, as evidenced by the fact that Sydney and Tiffany don’t get ANY shots of them sneaking out of camp, and we cut straight to the island.  

At said island, we meet our dilemma for the episode, and credit where credit is due, my request for a change-up from the Prisoner’s Dilemma has been fulfilled.  Basically, each person will individually choose whether they want a tarp or a vote steal.  If all take the former, everyone gets a tarp.  If all take the latter, everyone gets nothing, and loses their vote at the next Tribal Council.  In the event of a split, however, those who choose the tarp get nothing, and those who choose the vote steal get what they asked for.  This dilemma blows the previous one out of the water.  This time, there’s actual RISK to both choices.  Everyone wants the vote steal, but can’t all go for it.  Someone can sacrifice in order to get it for the others, but then they get nothing.  The best outcome for everyone is to go tarp, but per game theory, as soon as one person chooses tarp, it’s better for the others to choose the vote steal.  

Naturally, such a complex situation requires close coordination, which our contestants will naturally take their time over, as well as build bonds with the other tribe… Or you could be paranoid about the “time crunch” and rush the decision, that works as well.  

There’s some disagreement over whether Sydney or Tiffany will take the fall (Brad having made a good case for his needing the extra vote), with Tiffany saying she needs the advantage, while Sydney claims that the smaller numbers make it better for Tiffany to sacrifice.  I’m siding with Tiffany here, not so much because I feel she needs the advantage, but because with smaller numbers, the vote is more valuable, and Tiffany has been on the chopping block due to challenge performance.  Sydney, on the other hand, is in solid with the largest tribe left, and so should be one of the ones to risk, as she has less to lose if it doesn’t pay off.  Brad, as expected, goes for the vote steal, and we see Sydney got cold feet and went for the tarp.  We don’t see what Tiffany put… Until after commercial, when everyone goes to tree mail (which actually looks like a driftwood mailbox.  Nice touch), and we see that only Brad put down the vote steal, and is thus the only one to get an advantage.  Way to hold that tension for all of three minutes, show.  

Our immunity challenge, sadly, is even more underwhelming than the last two.  One at a time, tribe members cross a thin rope bridge, then go to shore to dig up sandbags, which they must then land on discs above them in a spiral.  First two tribes win immunity and varying amounts of fruit.  I’ll admit the spiral is cool, but this challenge just feels scaled down from the previous ones.  Still another obstacle course, but not even an epic set piece to recommend it.  

Yase is also playing for their flint back, and based on the edit so far, they might get it!  Yes, for all my complaints, this episode does a really good job of balancing likelihood of tribes going to Tribal Council.  We got at least lip service towards the dynamics on Ua and Luvu, and while Yase was pretty quiet, you could argue their strategizing from last episode carries over.  Oh, and Brad calls out his phrase, where we learn that you evidently don’t need to get the phrase exactly, as while Brad says the “Broccoli is just small trees” bit, he misses the “I didn’t realize this until now” part.  Xander, of course, should keep his mouth shut until someone from Luvu says their phrase, which is why Probst immediately goes to him, and all but forces him to say his phrase.  Way to remain impartial there, Probst.  

As I say, Yase has a chance to win this challenge from an editing perspective.  In reality, they have to deal with Tiffany still being a challenge sink.  Admittedly, she doesn’t do quite as poorly as she did on the balance beam last episode, but the other tribes have all but lapped Yase by the time we get to the digging portion.  Still, Ua blows their lead both there and on the sandbag tossing, which both Tiffany and Xander show an affinity for.  This leads to a tight race, helped by the show pulling the old trick of “Triumph” music only for someone to miss a throw.  Luvu predictably wins in the end, but Yase pulls out a clutch second place, sending Ua to Tribal Council, despite Genie’s fantastic cheering from the sidelines.  

Old habits die hard for Brad, as he once again goes for whoever the challenge sink was in the last challenge.  This time it was JD, who failed miserably on the sandbag toss.  Sinking JD’s ship further, he goes off to get his extra vote, only to leave it sticking out of his pants, which both Shan and Ricard notice.  While JD and Shan might be close, Shan has a bond with Brad as well, and as Brad was honest about his advantages, Shan is all aboard the JD boot idea at this point.  In essence, she’s the swing vote between the JD/Ricard alliance (ironic, given that Ricard wanted JD out first, but you make do with what you have), and the Brad/Genie alliance.  To his credit, JD realizes he messed up, making those Woo comparisons from earlier all the more apt.  As such, he makes the risky play of giving his extra vote to Shan as a sign of trust.  No word on whether it’s transferrable or not, so presumably no Cirie and the vote steal situation of “Survivor Game Changers” incoming.  

We head off to Tribal on the one bit of emotion the show has this episode, with Shan comparing the vote to her parents splitting up, and being asked to choose who to live with.  There’s some real emotion there, and you feel for it.  Yes, this episode has been using flashbacks, but they’ve all been game related, not for bonding with the cast like in previous episodes.  Nothing wrong with that, but this episode has been all “game, game, game”, without much of the humanity that the previous two episodes had.  This moment comes the closest, and does work, but it really does feel like now there’s too much going on to actually care about the people playing.  

As Shan is the swing vote, you might be wondering which way is the better one for her to go.  Honestly, this is the rare situation where there are no bad options.  If you get rid of Brad, you’re in power in a tight threesome, and have gotten rid of several advantages that could be used against you.  Plus, as we saw, Brad is pretty set in his old-school ways.  That said, JD is little better.  Brad at least knows when to shut up, but JD plays chaotically and out in the open.  Plus, you’re still in the majority if you vote him out, presumably get to keep his extra vote, and had Brad’s advantages to keep you in power come the merge.  No bad option for Shan that I can see.  If you FORCED me to say which was better, I would say voting out Brad is slightly smarter, since I’d say Shan has more power over Ricard and JD than she does over Brad and Genie, but again, can’t fault her whichever way she goes.  

As one would expect with such an emotional tribe, Tribal Council is a fairly subdued affair.  For all that this tribe is pretty well splintered at this point, they do seem to genuinely care for each other, which is a plus.  JD forces a few metaphors (stop trying, JD, you’re no Voce), but makes up for it with his own humanity.  It’s the old saw we’ve heard about his youth and how much the show means to him, but it hits well.  It also portends his doom, as we saw with Voce last week.  Probst wanting your life story at Tribal Council means you should be prepared to go.  

Credit to the editors, they know when their tricks are getting old, and they need to change them up.  As soon as people start complaining about how obvious getting your life story at Tribal Council makes your boot, that person stays.  Brad is sent home in the slightly smarter move for Shan.  I’m mixed on him going.  On the one had, he was definitely a more interesting character than I gave him credit for.  Very old school in his play style, and when he did do more “new school” antics (spying on Ricard and JD, finding idols and advantages), he acquitted himself well.  That said, I identify more with JD, and had him in my draft team, so overall, I think I’m happier with this outcome.  Or maybe I’m just happy with the good job the editors did.  

“Overstuffed” is the word that comes to mind when I think of this episode.  It was nearly what I titled this blog.  Look, the editors did a fantastic job with what they had to work with, but there’s just TOO MUCH going on for this season.  This episode was basically “Beware Advantage; Challenge; Pre-Tribal Buildup; Tribal Council”.  I stand behind this being a good cast, and the first two episodes did a good job of helping us bond with them, but we need to keep that going.  Good though the dilemma of this episode was, we don’t need more advantages in the game.  Let us get to know the tribes better.  Don’t throw in a new dilemma every five minutes.  All you’re doing is taking the time away from the heart and soul of the show, and if you keep it up, the solid start this season has had will quickly peter out.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Episode 2: Zigging Where You Should Zag

While I stand behind my statement that the first episode of this season was an excellent start, it should be said that it had a bit of an advantage.  It had been over a YEAR since we had anything new in terms of US “Survivor” to discuss; of course we were going to lap it up.  I maintain that even without that boost, it’s still a fantastic episode, but it cannot be denied that the advantage was there.  Now, however, the blush is off the rose, and the episode has to stand on its own.  While by no means the nadir of “Survivor”, this one is definitely a big step down, and seems to make all the wrong decisions, both in terms of production and in terms of game moves.  But I get ahead of myself.  

You would think, after such a contentious Tribal Council from Ua, that we would follow up with them immediately afterward.  You know, get the fallout, maybe hear from Genie about the stray Ricard vote?  Well, you would be correct in assuming we start at Ua, but you would be wrong in assuming we get immediate fallout from Tribal Council, or (much to my frustration) ANY word from Genie this episode.  Man, someone I thought was going to be a fun but short-lived character is turning out to be nigh-on invisible.  Good for her chances, bad for entertainment.  

No, no, we do get some fallout, just not the overly contentious type I might have thought of.  Specifically, Brad gets a wake-up call after receiving Sara’s stray vote, and seeing JD discuss things with Shan.  Brad thought he and JD were tight, but now sees JD as unreliable.  Thus, when JD and Ricard go off to get water from the well, Brad is suspicious, claiming you don’t need two people to get water.  I would point out that we usually see multiple people getting water, both because water is heavy and because it makes the job of getting the water in the canteens easier (one pours water in the canteens, one holds the canteens steady), but ultimately, given how many conversation happen at the well, I can’t fault Brad too much.  

Despite Brad having shifted to “New School” style gameplay by emulating Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), he does not have Tony’s foresight.  No Spy Bunker, Nest, or even Shack is forthcoming, so Brad ends up hiding in a convenient bush.  Again, can’t really fault him on this one; it does hide him well.  Hell, I won’t even give JD and Ricard my usual flak for not doing a 360 before discussing strategy, as unless they had bothered to poke a stick in the specific bush that Brad was hiding in, I don’t think they’d have noticed him.  Sure enough, Brad’s name does come up between them, as JD thinks Brad thinks he has an idol.  Successful, Brad runs back to tell Shan, who saw him leave.  Shan, however, takes this as a sign that Brad is playing harder than she thought, and thus puts him on her watch list.  Ricard is also not happy with Brad, though as Ricard has no idea of Brad’s beach run, dismisses him as a poor player.  Understandable given what Ricard has seen of Brad, but it comes across as REALLY mean-spirited, and making it harder and harder to like the guy by the episode.  

To me, though, what’s most interesting about this is that as it’s presented, Brad DOES think JD has an idol, but only AFTER hearing the conversation where JD and Ricard discussed them thinking that Brad thinks JD has an idol.  Probably just manipulative editing, but if not, talk about your self-fulfilling prophecies.  

Luvu, having not lost their flint at the last challenge, is still struggling.  Deshawn tells us that he did practice starting fire with flint prior to coming on the show (easy to do, as Deshawn is one of the few people we know for certain was slated to common the season prior to the pandemic recasting), but even with help from his family, it took 13 hours.  Worse, that was with a kitchen knife, which is much different from a machete.  Still, Deshawn takes his failure in good humor, and the worst he gets for it is Naseer saying (jokingly), that they’ll have to give Deshawn classes in how to make fire.  A funny moment, but it should be noted that Deshawn’s specific joke is “Keep me around; you can beat me in Final Four Firemaking”.  This, right here, is gold for the producers if Deshawn makes it that far.  Assuming he is selected to do fire-making, you’ve either set up an extra-long joke, or you’ve set up a redemption arc (Deshawn starts off having trouble making fire, only to then use that skill to win in the end).  More on that later, but bear this stuff in mind.  

Naseer does make fire, and then finds some breadfruit, attributing his success to his upbringing in Sri Lanka, coupled with more footage of his childhood home.  This leads Sydney to comment that, given the deprivation of supplies on this season, Naseer is more valuable, and no longer on the chopping block.  We hope you enjoyed this strategic insight into Luvu, because it’s LITERALLY never going to come up again this episode.  Congratulations, Luvu, you’ve managed to take every plausible target off the table!  I hope you’re happy!  I look forward to seeing you at Tribal Council never!

The deprivation mentioned earlier is not only hitting Luvu, however.  Yase is also having problems, as Tiffany comments on the harshness of the environment, and how it makes it harder for her to bring her social game to bear.  And social is the order of the day, as we then cut over to Xander and Liana, noting with worry that everyone else has left the camp.  Theorizing that this could mean conversations are happening against them, they both go off, nominally in search of the others, but in Xander’s case in search of advantages.  Normally I’d be against this is you think you’re socially on the outs, but immediate situation aside, I don’t see Xander feeling that way, and if so, hey, might as well have another advantage in your pocket.  Sure enough, after a decent search, Xander finds the hyped-up “Beware Advantage”, and after reading that he must either follow the instructions of the parchment or put it back unread, he decides to look at it.  Understandable, given that Xander should be feeling secure right now, but what is this mysterious “Beware Advantage”?  

A Hidden Immunity Idol.  Whoopee.  

Ok, ok, there’s a bit more to it than that.  Basically this WILL work as any other idol would, but only after activation.  Now, how does one activate it?  Xander is informed of the fact that each other tribe has the same idol, and each comes with an “activation phrase” to be said at a challenge.  Once all three phrases are said at the same challenge, the idols will activate, and can be played as normal.  On paper, this is actually a great shakeup.  It keeps idols in the game, but makes them harder to use, and requires some subtlety to activate.  A good spy thriller trope, if the phrases are something that’s not incredibly obvious.  Unfortunately, in one of many dumb decisions from this episode, the phrases are things that are incredibly weird, that you can maybe get away with saying ONCE without arousing suspicion.  Xander probably gets off the easiest, having to say something along the lines of “Sometimes I think butterflies are dead relatives”.  Odd, but there’s some poetry to it.  The other two?  Even more obvious.  My pity to the tribe that has the idol where they have to compare the forest to broccoli.  I get that the phrases need to be something distinct for the call and response, but make it something that could more naturally come out a player’s mouth.  Maybe have it be that a player goes full Courtney Yates (“Survivor China”) and calls Jeff “Jeffrey” or something.  I’m guessing other players with an idol will be keeping an ear out for that.  Sure, it could lead to false positives if someone else says the phrase, but hey, that misdirection just adds to the fun!  

“But so what?” I hear you thinking.  “So Xander has to kind of give himself away to use his idol.  What’s so wrong about that?”  The problem, dear reader, is the consequence.  You see, until all three phrases are said at the same time, not only is the idol inactive, but the holder CAN’T VOTE!  Definitely a dire consequence, and in this case, I’d say the juice is not worth the squeeze.  Consider, if you will, the possibility that someone is voted out before all three tribes find their idol, and give the activation phrase.  Well, that person can’t say the phrase, now can they?  You know what that means: Barring that the idol is hidden and found again, that person is screwed out of their vote FOR THE REST OF THE GAME!  Yes, by picking up one advantage, one with only the bare minimum warning, someone might be screwed out of their vote for the entirety of their game life.  Hardly fun to watch, and a real kick in the nuts for whoever picked it up.  Look, I get the whole “risk vs. reward” thing.  I get what they’re going for here.  And it could work.  But it could also go horribly wrong.  The solution?  Make the most dire consequences time-limited.  Say that the idol never activates until such time as all three phrase are said, but have the “No vote” part stop at some arbitrary point in the future.  Say, for instance, once you hit the merge you get your vote back, whether the phrases are said or not.  You still have a consequence, and you still have to socially maneuver to get any benefit.  You keep the risk vs. reward aspect, but it’s not game-stalling like this one has the potential to be.  

Now, Xander losing his vote here has major ramifications for him.  After all, while his tribe was united at the first vote, they’re still a fractured bunch overall, and every vote counts.  Plus, his inability to vote affects his extra vote as well, so he’s really useless.  He can’t keep this quiet (if nothing else, it will become self-evident the next time the tribe goes to Tribal Council), but spreading it around makes him an easy target: He has a lot of advantages and can’t fight back right now.  A ripe target if ever there was one.  Xander wisely decides to keep things among trusted allies Voce and Evvie, informing them of his idol find and its consequences.  Unwisely, however, rather than just describing what it is, Xander instead just lets them read the rules.  The problem with this is it gives too much information away.  Your allies need to know your vote is gone and why, and how to get it back, but they don’t need to know the specific phrases.  Sure, showing them the rules verifies your idol, and helps build trust, but you’re giving away information, aka power, in the game for no reason by being so detailed.  Plus, you’d better be REALLY sure these people are on your side, because if not, you’ve just given an opposing alliance a LOT of ammunition against you.  

Oh look, Evvie is rallying the women to vote off Xander for having too much power!  Who could have seen this coming?  

Off to our challenge, which is again an standard water obstacle course with a puzzle.  Not much to talk about, though I like the sea turtle puzzle.  It’s new and different.  Here’s where we get some more missteps in the show this time.  We’re only about 20 minutes in, and with two Tribal Councils, this seems like a reasonable amount of time to have a challenge, but unfortunately, this means we know for certain who wins.  Yase has had a lot of strategy talk, and while Ua’s had less, they do have multiple targets established after Brad’s run.  Luvu?  All their targets, as stated earlier, were taken off the table.  No way they lose.  Probst corrects for this by revealing that two tribes win immunity, with the first tribe to finish also getting fishing gear.  Ok, I’m HAPPY this leaves some mystery, as either Ua or Yase could plausibly lose in this challenge, and adding back to the mystery, but why, though?  You’ve got a shortened season, so you need a few double-boots.  Why not go ahead in this new direction, and speed up the game that way?  I guess in the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t matter too much.  Perhaps I’m just bitter that we’ve got two copies of the idol again, instead of one idol that splits cleanly in two.  

On top of all this, Probst reveals that Yase or Ua have to not finish last to get their flint back, meaning I have to rescind my seal of approval on the twist.  Taking it away for a day, then guaranteeing it back, would create great consequences and drama.  Making it harder for a tribe to win challenges, then FORCING them to win in order to get it back, hews dangerously close to the “Haves vs. Have-Nots” twist of “Survivor Fiji”, and that’s a well I would very much have us avoid.  

While the challenge itself is pretty standard, there’s a couple of points I think bear mentioning.  One is that the tribes have very much learned that what matters is the puzzle, as Shan is left far away from it for Ua after last episode (“Even though she and Sara did nothing wrong in terms of puzzle SOLVING!”, I grumble), and the swimming portion, in particular, is neglected.  Only Yase puts their strongest swimmer on this portion, with Sydney going for Luvu, and Genie for Ua, both of whom are far behind Xander (though Sydney, to her credit, makes up ground on the diving portion, which Xander struggles with).  I also want to call out Yase and Ua for being jerks.  We clearly see Deshawn on Luvu help his swimming tribemates up the ladder.  Good both from a social standpoint, and a “Win the challenge” standpoint.  So why don’t Yase and Ua do the same?  Clearly it’s allowed, if Deshawn is doing it.  Finally, on the “Not relevant to the episode, but it bothers me” point, I want to say that this episode has one of the lamer balance beams I’ve seen on the show.  How I long for the days of “Survivor Vanuatu”, when balance beams were boards maybe an inch thick, that took real skill to get across.  These things are so wide, they should be pretty easy to navigate.  Then again, only Liana is able to get across without scooching, so perhaps it’s harder than it looks.  I will say, doing the balance beam after a swim is probably fairly tough.  

The real story of the challenge, though, is Tiffany on Yase.  She goes full Cirie circa “Survivor Game Changers”, struggling to get across the beam, talking again and again about how she can’t do it.  Probst, sensing a moment he can force, keeps encouraging her.  With the way everything slows down, and the music cuts out, I fear we’re going to get another Russell Swan (“Survivor Samoa”) situation.  Thankfully, this is “Inspirational Breath” pause, not an “I’m Actually Dying” pause, and Tiffany gets across the balance beam.  Combine this with Ua struggling on the puzzle, and Liana making good time across the beam, it’s actually presented as a decently tight race between Yase and Ua.  Tiffany lost them just too much time, however, and Ua gets second place, Luvu having predictably beaten both tribes handily.  

In addition to their fishing gear, Luvu now gets to send two people, one from Yase and one from either their tribe or Ua, for a meeting, Probst reassuring Yase that whoever is picked will return prior to Tribal Council.  We don’t see much of Luvu’s strategizing as to who to pick, though both their choices are reasonable.  They pick Evvie from Yase, and Deshawn volunteers from Luvu.  

Naturally, this leads us back to Yase camp, where Voce goes into full-on villain mode for the first time this season.  He is naturally, unhappy with Tiffany’s performance in the challenge, which is understandable.  Unlike Sara in the last episode, this is inherent in Tiffany’s current abilities (as opposed to a mistake anyone could make), and unlikely to get better without more food and water.  Plus, given how close the challenge was made out to be, Tiffany’s performance may have cost them the win.  Still, Voce goes too far for me, talking about how Tiffany sucks as a person, rather than her challenge performance.  Look, criticize her performance all you want, but there’ no need to be mean-spirited about it.  Xander agrees with him, though, and they pitch this to Liana, since without Xander’s vote (no one else found the idol, which Xander berates the other tribes for in confessional), they need her on board.  Liana does a good job playing along, but admits privately that she’s going to go where Evvie goes, which is the correct response at this juncture.  

Speaking of Evvie, they and Deshawn go to the same island where Danny, JD, and Xander were brought last episode.  Deshawn takes this time to give us his backstory, talking about needing to work hard to get where he is with his medical degree, fighting to get ahead in an area in which a lot of African-Americans, such as himself, don’t, interspersed with pictures of himself in higher education, his family smiling behind him.  It’s a touching piece, and this continued use of “flashbacks” to help us bond with the players this season remains one of the few saving graces of this episode.  I loved it last time, and still love it now.  Still this, combined with the stuff I said earlier about Deshawn commenting on fire-making, leads me to my first big prediction of the season: Deshawn is making the final episode at least.  I’m admittedly a bit biased (Deshawn is in my draft team, and I need some big points after losing Sara last episode), but that fire-making comment seems like blatant foreshadowing to me, and now we’re asked to bond with his story, talking about determination?  I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make it deep.  

Of course, getting the “flashbacks” means nothing in terms of longevity.  After all, Sara got them last episode, and is she still around? Exactly.  But then Evvie, I believe, spells out for us where the season will go.  They admit that they don’t see Yase winning challenges, which is a reasonable conclusion to make based on the evidence, and as such can expect to go into the merge down in numbers.  Thus, Evvie reasonably decides they need allies on the other teams, particularly Luvu, who show no signs of slowing down in terms of challenge victories, and thus have a good chance to go into the merge as a solid block.  As such, Evvie wisely spills secrets, but only secrets that harm those outside her alliance.  Specifically, they spill all the beans about Xander’s idol, save presumably where to find it (since Evvie, as far as we know, doesn’t know that information).  Reasonable to do, and add onto that Evvie saying they’ll protect their vote if given the chance, and Deshawn openly admits he’s indebted to Evvie.  Time will tell whether that means anything, but all smart playing on Evvie’s part.  As I say, their conclusions about their tribe’s chances at winning, as well as the need for cross-tribe allies are all on the money.  Add onto that Evvie needing to protect her vote regardless, given Xander’s lost vote?  Might as well make a friend, if you’re going to give them an advantage.  Really, the only thing I can fault Evvie for here is assuming there’s going to be a swap at some point, and really, it’s a reasonable assumption to make.  it’s only we, the audience, who know this won’t happen, and I can’t fault Evvie for thinking otherwise.  

Of course, I could also fault them for thinking the advantage and method of obtaining it are the same as last time.  After all, why would this show, which so PRIDES itself on shaking things up, do basically the same thing twice in a row?  Laziness, that’s why.  

To be completely fair, if the show IS going to effectively add in one advantage every episode, I’m glad it’s an extra vote.  “Worth playing for”, as they say, but not super-overpowered.  Adds fun to the game, but doesn’t break the game.  But shake up what needs to be done to obtain it.  Apart from making it so the gamers in the cast can easily game the system, give us new dilemmas. The prisoner’s dilemma has been played out.  Show us something new.  Make the players think on their toes for goodness’ sake.  As predicted, Evvie protects their vote, while Deshawn risks his, and we move on.  

Back at camp, Evvie is quickly brought up to speed on the “Voce/Tiffany situation”, and predictably says that they’ll stick with the women.  The proper choice here.  If you’ve given up on winning challenges, better to have people loyal to you.  Plus, as noted when discussing the “Beware Advantage”, by getting rid of Xander, you make it that much harder for the other tribe to have idols come the merge.  Certainly a great help to a tribe expecting to come in low on numbers.  

Unfortunately, while this is the smart decision, it also sucks all the tension out of the episode.  What could bring it back?  Paranoia, that’s what!  Tiffany fears that Xander may actually have an active idol, all but guaranteeing her elimination if it’s played.  Liana, not having seen the note, does little to quell her fear, and now Tiffany wants Voce gone as a safe vote.  Reasonable, given the information she has.  What’s NOT reasonable is that, when Evvie tells her about the rules she saw, and verifies that Xander’s idol is inactive, Tiffany is still paranoid, and is insisting Evvie and Liana vote Voce.  This, in turn, leads Evvie and Liana to wonder how stable Tiffany is, and they consider booting her.  Tension is now back in the episode, but also by giving us an incredibly dumb choice.  There were advantages to getting rid of both Xander and Tiffany.  You lose Xander, you keep the women’s alliance strong, and you cripple the other tribes’ chances at an idol.  You get rid of Tiffany, you vote out a challenge sink.  But Voce?  Your tribe is still likely to lose, and if Xander’s idol gets activated, your alliance is pretty well screwed!  The women’s alliance is a valid strategy, and a smart on in this case.  Don’t risk it by leaving a pissed-off young guy with now multiple advantages in the game.  I mean, sure, you want Tiffany to be happy, but you’re still saving her.  Worst case scenario, you force a 2-2-1 split (with Tiffany being the one vote for Voce), and vote out Xander on the re-vote.  Tiffany may be slightly mad, but not alliance-breakingly mad, and where else is she going to go?

We get Probst talking directly to the audience again pre-Tribal Council, outlining the debate as “loyalty vs. strength”.  Apart from being patronizing and awkward, this now eliminates any suspension of disbelief that Probst isn’t briefed on the ins and outs of the tribe.  Thanks a lot, show!  

Thankfully, Tribal Council itself is a much better affair.  Entertaining, even!  The harshness of the season takes center stage first, with Tiffany talking about how it cripples her social game.  Voce chimes in as well, proving that he is the king of non-awkward links to his career.  He notes that in his profession, mistakes need to be analyzed so they never reoccur, likening the challenge performance of his tribe to an artery gushing blood in the operating room.  A bit gross, but apt.  Talk then moves to the strategy, where the highlight is Tiffany defending herself.  Rather than hide or defend her challenge performance, she notes that it isn’t everything, and rightly touts her social skills as what will keep her safe.  

Time to vote, and while the voting itself is inconsequential, I do want to give credit to one design element.  The voting urn for this season: I was not a fan initially.  Not enough to complain about, but it’s basically just a bright red box.  Fitting for flotsam but it does the job of standing out a bit TOO much, and just seemed to not gel with the rest of Tribal Council.  Tonight, however, we saw one upside to the urn this season.  A close up reveal that, printed just beneath the lid, is the phrase “Dangerous Contents”.  Funny, given that the contents ARE dangerous to whoever ends up voted out.  Nice little joke there, show.  

Having been given two smart options for whom to vote out, and one stupid one, Yase naturally opts for the stupid one.  Voce goes home, and I am sorry.  To my surprise, apart from his brief treatment of Tiffany, he was never really a villain.  Just a slightly intelligent, slightly likable player, whom Id have been interested to see navigate the later game.  Perhaps it was how short-lived he was, but I found myself liking Voce in spite of myself, and thus, his boot hurts.  Plus, the dude actually connected the show to his career without it being forced.  That’s a rare talent.  All that said, I suppose I can’t fault Evvie and Liana too much this move.  They kept their alliance intact and happy, which is not nothing, though I maintain they could have done this with a Xander boot, and have much less risk down the line.  

Perhaps this episode was always going to be a letdown after the premier, but this one just did not deliver overall.  It was not an entirely bad episode by any means.  There was good misdirection throughout, a decent mystery as to the boot, and I am still 100% on board for these “real life” flashbacks.  That said, a lot of the decisions this episode seem to be the wrong ones, particularly on how production is handling various twists.  Above all else, though the episode felt rushed.  What we got was good, but as I say, Luvu got little development, and Yase was clearly the tribe to watch.  I can’t blame the show too much for this.  They have a lot to get through.  But what it says to me is this style of storytelling, while good, needs more time to be great.  A 2-hour episode each week is probably asking too much, but perhaps the show should consider going to 90-minute episodes on the regular?  Give us a bit more time to develop with everyone, and give the story a chance to be told at its own pace.  Sadly, naught but a dream…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Episode 1: Blue’s Clues

If nothing else, this episode of “Survivor” should put to rest any doubts anyone has about the virulency and spread of COVID.  Not only has it spread to every inhabited nation on earth, not only has it fundamentally changed our way of life, but it has even managed to reach Jeff Probst’s fountain of youth!  The horror!  Don’t misunderstand, the dude still looks WAY younger than he actually is, and some of this may be due to just not having seen him in a while, but the dude has visibly aged, in my opinion.  Perhaps it’s the mullet.  Cut that thing, Probst.  

Readers, is is my DIVINE pleasure to welcome you back, once again, to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that EVERYONE is entitled to.  Yes, after a long, LONG dry spell we at last have new “Survivor” content to discuss.  Let me just switch off from the “Nick Jr.” channel my cable seems to have started on for some weird reason, and we can begin…

Wait, you mean to tell me this whole “Probst talking to the audience like he’s in your living room” thing is a part of the show now?  Yeah, it case the snark didn’t make it obvious, this first “twist” for want of a better word, doesn’t land well.  It’s bad enough that Probst interrupts the flow of the action to give us an answer to a question we didn’t need (I maintain it’s more fun to play along with a hunt for an advantage/idol than it is to be told where one is), but he actually “talks” to us, tells us how much he missed us?  Yeah, I don’t need that patronization, thanks.  Show us your gratitude to be back on the air by giving us a fantastic, well-edited episode (which this one by and large is), and through your own in-universe enthusiasm, not by going full “Dora the Explorer”.  

Oh, Probst also takes this opportunity to show us the tree in which he’s hiding the “Beware” advantage.  What does it do?  We don’t know!  We have so many advantages now that we can’t even explain them all to you!

We then get our introduction to the players this season, with the first six interviews for the players.  We hear about Evvie’s passion for the game, as well as Danny’s drive.  Jairus (or JD, as he’s going by) give the first of 8,192 confessionals about being younger than the game itself.  Tiffany talks about her joy at being selected for the game, complete with video of her reaction to being called.  If that’s genuine video of the event (which I somewhat doubt), good for her!  A fun reaction, and a pretty realistic one.  If that’s staged, then man, show.  I get that the “flashback” to stuff in real life worked on “Winners at War”.  By and large, it works here too.  But don’t force it if you don’t have the footage.  David (or “Voce”) talks about how the stress of neurosurgery prepares him for “Survivor”, thereby getting our requisite “Link your job to the game” confessional out of the way early and relatively painlessly.  Kudos.  Finally, Shantel (or “Shan” as she is going by) rounds us out by telling us that being a pastor doesn’t mean she won’t play a cutthroat game.  Decent enough, but Shan, that’s not what I’m worried about.  You’re not on a super-religious tribe, and if you bring up religion too much, that, not your ability or inability to be cutthroat, will be your undoing.  Still, a promising start.  

After three rapid-fire confessionals to assure us that yes, COVID has been a major factor in these people’s lives, we get what I can only assume is the show’s answer to “Doing something new with the intro”, as advertised pre-season.  We get some of the opening notes played over a slow-motion shot of that horrible logo, thus giving us time to linger on its horribleness, rather than do the smart thing and only show it briefly, keeping the focus on the colors and not the other, less-good design choices.  Plus, this just makes me long for the old intro even more.  Come on, show, you can spare one minute to give us that epic music and gorgeous shots of the players.  

Getting back to the players, after some more brief introductions (making sure to get Naseer’s “I learned English by watching ‘Survivor’” story in there), we get to, you guessed it, EVEN MORE CRINGE!  Probst talks about the changes that have been made to the show, highlighting in particular the diversity of the cast.  Fair enough.  Growth is important, and should be called out where applicable.  Granted, the show still has a long way to go in a lot of areas, but still, steps in the right direction should be praised.  The show praising itself is not what I would have gone for but hey, no harm done so far.  Unfortunately, Probst decides to then go in the cringe-y direction by asking if his “Come on in, guys!” is too exclusionary, and should be gotten rid of.  Now, I’m not saying this is a bad conversation in and of itself, and I’m not saying it should never happen.  But, first, it should not happening in so public a format.  By doing it this visibly, you A, put a lot of pressure on people to say that everything’s fine, and B, look like you’re trying to show people how “Woke” you are without actually putting in as much effort as you should.  Second, and more important, while the show is improving in terms of inclusivity, this is NOT a step people were clamoring for, and is not a major step towards being more inclusive.  Instead, it looks like you’re forgoing real change in favor of looking good.  Trying to give the APPEARANCE of changing the system to be more just, rather than actually doing something SUBSTANTIAL to change the system.  My fear is that the show won’t go through with things it ought to, and instead just have purely symbolic gestures towards change without actual development.  Evvie speaks up, saying they feel that “guys” is inclusive enough to keep, and we, for the moment, move on.  

With all my complaining, people are going to think I don’t like this episode.  Nothing could be further from the truth!  That said, be prepared for more snark incoming.  You see, we finally get our tribe names.  We have the blue “Luvu” tribe, which is in no way going to be confusing, given that we had a blue “Levu” tribe on “Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  See, this is what happens when you don’t vary up your locations.  You’re stuck in the same linguistic groups, and have confusions like these.  Our yellow tribe is “Yase”, noteworthy only that is pronounced “yeh-SAW” for some reason, making me feel like the “A” and “E” should be reversed.  As for our green tribe, they are “Ua”, and they waste no time in leaning into the fact that their tribe name sounds like a war cry.  

Probst then makes sure to inform the contestants about the shortened game and limited supplies before getting into the season opener.  Despite starting on the ship, we thankfully avoid the “Scramble for Supplies” opener that had, until recently, been standard.  While a fun way to start, it was getting played out.  Instead, our tribes must race to find six oars, which they must then use to paddle a boat around a buoy and back to the main boat to grab a flint.  First tribe to do so gets said flint, plus a machete and pot, with the other two tribes having to “earn” these later on.  We’ll get to that.  

Out of the gate, we get a sense for how well these tribes work together.  Luvu and Ua are fairly even physically.  Luvu gets a bit of a lead into the water, but forgets to unclip one part of their boat when rowing.  As such, they tow an anchor, allowing Ua to take the lead.  They may not be the swiftest, but so far, they work well together, and win reward for their troubles.  As for Yase?  they don’t even make it off the boat, missing one oar, though Tiffany does jump in the water to count and make sure.  

So, how are our losing tribes to earn their meager supplies?  Well, they have a choice in the matter, which is always a good thing, in my opinion.  They can either work as a team to solve a “How many triangles are in this picture” puzzle, or race to have two people fill two buckets with ocean water along a set course in a set period of time (4 hours).  Physical work or mental work?  It’s a decent dilemma, and adds some good intrigue to the show, though I would say the triangle one is better overall.  True, they do only get one guess, but you keep the whole team together, and don’t physically tax yourself when there’s still shelter building to be done.  Voce wants to advocate for this option, for these reasons, though has a hard time arguing against the logic of “We couldn’t find an oar, so how can we find all these triangles?”.  Even worse for him, he’s roped into doing the task, along with Xander.  Luvu also chooses this option, though are more gung-ho about it, with Deshawn and Danny stating they will have no issues completing this particular task.  Naseer, attempting to keep the tribe unified, says the four who are at camp won’t talk strategy while they’re gone.  

This plan gets thrown out the window, however, when Danny and Deshawn start taking some time off to look for an idol or other advantage.  Not bad if they think they have the time, but Naseer catches them at it, and notes the clock is ticking.  Figuring this violates the spirit of “No strategizing”, he violates it as well, and talks to the women on his tribe (Erika, Sydney, and Heather) about voting one of the other two out.  Solid, if predictable, strategy.  Xander and Voce, not being as physically gifted as Deshawn and Danny, do not have this problem, Eric instead throwing Tiffany under the bus for jumping in the water, blaming, as he says “Anyone but himself” for the loss.  This backfires, however, as Evvie and Liana have formed a tight bond, and the pair fear being next if Eric wants to start taking out those who are weak in challenges.  As such, Evvie wants to align with Xander and Voce, a bit odd considering their hatred of “Mansplaining”, but I suppose Voce has been fairly subdued so far, compared to what his introductory materials indicated.  To this end, they inform Tiffany of what’s happening, who is, of course, not happy about this course of events.  

Ultimately, the time crunch may have been somewhat exaggerated, as both tribes complete the task with time to spare.  This causes little fanfare over on Yase, but Luvu sees some intrigue, as Sydney spills Naseer’s strategizing to Deshawn and Danny, putting Naseer in their sights.  Time will tell if this bears fruit.  

Ua, with no tasks to do beyond building shelter, takes the time to pretty much all get a humanizing moment, complete with flashbacks.  Sara talks about losing her grandmother, a fan of the show, to COVID-19.  Ricard talks about leaving his husband and 22-month old daughter, while his husband is pregnant with their second child.  Genie talks about marrying her wife, and her gratitude at her mother’s implicit acceptance of this by giving her a diamond ring to use in the ceremony.  Brad… talks about working on a ranch.  One of these things is not like the others.  

I snark, I snark.  Brad talks about losing his dad as well, which hits just as hard as the others.  Shan is, admittedly, the only one who doesn’t get a flashback, but makes up for it with a fun editing moment.  She talks about “evilly” making friends with pretty much everyone in the tribe, and talks about the soundtrack that plays in her head, complete with singing a few bars.  Not one to miss such a BEAT (huh?  huh?  See what I did there), the editors, of course, turn this music into the score for this scene.  Brilliant.  Absolutely brilliant.  A highlight for the episode.  Less successful is JD.  True, he does make fire, and gets a nice flashback of moments from previous seasons, as well as his life, when he talks about how much this means to him as a superfan and former “not cool guy”.  No, JD’s problems come in his attempting to bond with people.  On paper, he does what he’s supposed to.  Talk with everyone, play nice, form bonds, try and get some sort of agreement going.  JD’s problem is that, to paraphrase Malcolm from “Survivor Philippines”, he has all the social graces of a Mack Truck.  He’s incredibly blunt about what he’s doing, and his volume is such that everyone knows he’s doing it.  This is indicated at first just by a disapproving look from Ricard in the background, though Ricard eventually solidifies this into an “Anti-JD” alliance of, well, pretty much everyone except JD.  

The following day, after some shots of Sydney trying to catch a crab, and talking about her travel experience, a boat comes up, asking each tribe to send off one player for an unknown purpose.  Sydney is initially volunteered, but backs down.  Danny tries to get rock-paper-scissors going, but when this fails, volunteers himself.  A bit risky, given what he should know about his position in the tribe.  Safer is Xander, whom the whole of Yase trusts, and sends by unanimous consent.  Evvie comments that Xander will be honest when he gets back, which is fair, though in case he meets up with the other tribe, I would worry about him spilling your secrets.  Ua, meanwhile, goes for the traditional rock draw, leading JD to go, thereby further piling on the “royally screwed”.  

Sure enough, the three meet up at an island, and have a good chat, bonding over their shared sports backgrounds.  Danny denies having played in the NFL, instead saying he runs teen football camps, though he does admit being good friends with Gary Hawkins, the landscaper from “Survivor Guatemala”.  After posing epically at the top of a mountain, the three are told to go off and each make a separate decision.  Danny tries to coordinate with the other two, but this fails.  

The decision, as Xander and later Erika will point out, is basically the prisoner’s dilemma.  Each individual must choose whether to protect their vote, or risk their vote.  Protecting your vote ensures you will have a vote at the next Tribal Council, but you have no shot at an advantage.  If you risk your vote, as long as someone else protects theirs, you get an extra vote to use down the line.  If, however, EVERYONE risks their vote, all LOSE their vote at the next Tribal Council.  What can I say, this is a twist that actually hits.  Choice, as I said, always makes the show more dynamic, and the prisoner’s dilemma is a tried-and-true such choice.  If I WERE to find fault, I would say they made the “Protect” option too appealing, as there was no negative consequence to everyone doing so, and on such small tribes, a vote is a bit thing to risk.  Plus, if someone else DOES get the extra vote, you can try to leverage the “Hey, I sacrificed my chance for you” down the line  It might not be great leverage, but it is leverage nonetheless.  

In another good bit of editing, we actually only see Danny’s choice before the commercial break.  Wisely, he chooses to protect his vote, then goes back and comes clean to his tribe about what he did.  Makes sense.  Even if you did risk your vote, there’s little reason to lie this early in the game over an extra vote, something that has historically not been all that helpful as an advantage.  Even Xander, who DID end up risking his vote, as we see in a flashback, comes clean to his tribe.  In both their cases, this engenders trust.  The same cannot be said of JD, who largely tells the truth, but his delivery is way too stilted, and only engenders more mistrust in him from his tribe.  We don’t see which option he picked, but based on his delivery, it seems pretty clear he risked his vote.  

And now we head off to challenge time, but not before Ricard brings up the “Come on in, guys” thing again.  He tells Probst that, having thought it over, he doesn’t think it’s ok to say “guys”, anymore, and it should just be shortened to “come on in”.  Probst agrees, and defies anyone to call him on it by putting his twitter handle in the lower corner.  Good on Ricard for standing up for what he thought was right, though again, I think the show focussing on it distracts from larger issues.  

Speaking of potential issues, Probst tells us about a few new twists to the game.  The first is that only the first tribe to finish wins immunity, sending the other two to Tribal Council.  A reasonable shake-up that fits with the shortened game time.  I can get behind this.  He also mentions that there is now a penalty for losing, with the two tribes who come in last having to forfeit their flint until after the next Tribal Council.  This seems a little needlessly cruel to me, and has the potential to devolve into the disastrous “Haves vs. Have-Nots” twist of “Survivor Fiji”.  If they really do get flint following Tribal, though, it probably won’t be as much of a factor.  Then, there’s the “shot in the dark”, the most confusing twist of the bunch.  Each tribe is given a bag of six dice, one for each member.  At any Tribal Council, instead of voting, any tribe member can forfeit their die for a 1/6 shot at safety.  Basically another hidden immunity idol that you don’t have to hunt for, but has a strong chance of failure.  It’s tough to say how I feel about this twist, as I need a few questions answered on how it works.  Are the six pieces of parchment determining whether you’re safe or not for the entire game, or do they get restocked?  If the latter, are they restocked after every individual votes, or after every Tribal Council.  If the former, someone could game the system, depending on where they stand in the vote order (i.e., those going up to vote later potentially reducing their odds by having others use their shots to try and find the “Not Safe” parchments, giving them better chances at drawing the “Safe” one)  If this is the case, then I fear production gaming the system by having those in danger further to the right, thus putting them later in the voting order to try and keep them safe.  

That said, based on what we do know, I see some obvious pros and cons to this twist.  On the con side, this is making yet more people safe, and while I presume the limit is one per Tribal Council, this is bringing us dangerous close to possible “Advantagegeddon” territory again, thus reinforcing my stance that the only thing that should grant full immunity are idols, won in challenges or hidden.  If there are still hidden immunity idols in the game (which, admittedly, has not yet been confirmed), then it feels like too much.  It’s also very luck based, which has the upside of being unpredictable, but not as exciting from a strategy side.  On the pro side, unlike hidden immunity idols, there’s no potential gender bias in the way idols are hidden, and everyone has equal access to it, at least in theory.  One intriguing possibility I see is bequeathing your die to someone, either as collateral, or a way to buy them into your alliance.  Sort of taking the good part of fire tokens (using them for strategic politicking), while eliminating how much time they bog down, and any value outside of use in this way.  this could lead to a savvy player having multiple opportunities to use the shot, assuming dice are transferrable.  And, if nothing else, players now have access to a game of Yahtzee to fill their downtime!  I’ll hold off on a final pronouncement on this twist until we know more details.  

We also get the reveal of our tribal Immunity Idol, and the reveal that once again, the show has been robbing my home, as this is once again clearly that cheap beach tiki I bought for use in audition videos years ago.  Seriously, art department?  This season looks gorgeous overall.  Couldn’t you at least have put a BIT of effort into the idol?  Our challenge itself is solid, but nothing to write home about.  After going over a net and through some dirt, tribes must load bags of puzzle pieces on a platform, then remove sandbags from the platform’s path onto a designated spot, before then hauling said pieces up a ramp to solve a puzzle, the first tribe to do so winning immunity and keeping their flint.  Pretty standard first challenge fare.  Kind of a combination of the first immunity challenge from “Survivor Samoa” with that challenge where they went through mud and hay on “Survivor Nicaragua”.  Not the best seasons to draw from in general, but both those challenges were solid, so it doesn’t bother me.  

What does bother me is the editing.  Up to this point, the editing has been solid, with all tribes getting some backstory, and some strategy.  Some characters are highlighted more than others, of course, but this season feels more even than some recent ones.  The one exception is in number of targets, and this is where the “Only one tribe wins immunity” thing becomes a problem.  Ua has only had one target, JD, noted, while both Luvu and Yase had multiple (Deshawn/Danny and Naseer; Tiffany and Eric respectively).  If two tribes got immunity, it wouldn’t matter if Ua was all but guaranteed a win between the editing and not having to do the water-hauling task.  There would still be tension for second between Luvu and Yase.  Having Ua all but guaranteed a win sinks that tension.  

Those were my thoughts prior to the challenge playing out.  That said, if you’ve seen the episode, you know that the editors, once again, got me, and it’s easy to see why.  Ua does indeed have a lead on the puzzle, but a piece not falling out of the bag, and their inability to move forward without it, lets Luvu gain a lead and ultimately win.    All the more impressive given that Deshawn had forced the tribe to redo part of the challenge, as one of his sandbags slipped off the designated spot.  Seemed a bit nitpicky to me, but hey, I don’t make the rules for these challenges.  We will eventually see that the editors had good reason for only giving us one target at Ua so far.  

First, though, we see the dynamic play out at Yase.  Really, there’s not much to note here.  It’s the same “Tiffany vs. Eric” debate we had earlier, with the only interesting bit being Tiffany going to look for an idol or advantage in the woods, stumbling near the well-hidden “Beware” advantage, though not finding it.  It was kind of fun knowing where the advantage was, though the same effect could have been accomplished with the light flash they gave us, rather than the cringey Probst opener.  

As for Ua, up until the challenge there only was one target, in JD.  Sara, however, is blamed for losing the tribe the challenge, given their lead (Shan is as well, though it’s Sara’s name that is brought up), and is thus now on the chopping block.  Brad in particular is on the warpath for her, even going so far as to tell her straight to her face that she should go.  As Sara rightly says, this is some “Survivor Borneo” level play here, and not the Richard Hatch kind.  Shan is scared about what a Sara boot means to her, and Ricard is still on the warpath against JD.  Meanwhile, Brad spills to JD that his name is being brought up, and Genie… Well, we don’t hear from Genie that much, but she seems awesome so far, at least.  This turn of events means that JD and Sara, two of the four I have in a fantasy draft with friends, are likely targets tonight, which only slightly influences me when I say that between JD and Sara, the correct answer is Brad.  Sara definitely should not go for that challenge mistake.  It’s an easy thing to do that anyone could have made, and doesn’t say much of anything about her challenge ability as a whole.  I’ll admit, there’s more of a case for JD to go.  He’s an unsubtle player and unsubtle liar, possibly with an advantage to use against the tribe, based on his description of the summit.  That said, he can at least play, and if allied with him could probably be trusted to not outright reveal secrets.  Brad, though?  He just showed his gameplay is too chaotic to be a reliable ally long-term, and therefore the best choice to go from the tribe.  Sadly, we never hear is name brought up, apart from Sara’s frustration at his lack of subtlety, so we had off to Tribal Council with it still being the Sara vs. JD debates.  

Our first Tribal Council is with Yase, presumably because they were furthest behind in the challenge, which is reasonable.  Yase is really a two-man show, between Eric and Tiffany, each advocating for the other to go.  True to their natures, Tiffany uses many words and talks about the social bonds she’s made with the tribe, while Eric leans on his challenge prowess, which he says speaks for itself, though saying little overall.  In the end, as it so often is in “Survivor”, social prowess wins out, and Eric goes.  Probably the smart move for swing votes Evvie and Liana, since they’d likely be next if Eric got his way.  Not overly sorry to see Eric go.  Nothing bad about the guy, but kind of a standard “Survivor” character we’ve seen a lot before.  Tiffany is more dynamic, and has a fun energy I’m happy to see continue on our screens.  That said, I do wish we’d heard Eric’s last words.  That’s a level of respect every player should get, no matter how early they’re voted out.  

Ua is much more of an ensemble piece, and starts off with a bit of humor, Brad offering to give back their reward supplies in exchange for immunity, which Probst understandably shuts down.  Angelina (“Survivor Dayid vs. Goliath”) Brad is not.  Sadly, when everyone calls out everyone else for scheming, we quickly devolve into whispering, though at least subtitled whispering, to make it slightly more bearable.  We get some good debates, Sara and JD both considering using their shots in the dark, with Ricard and Shan having to talk Sara down from this.  Worried about JD, they NOW discuss voting Brad.  Yes, somewhat non-foreshadowed which I’ve complained about in the past, but at least they showed us WHY he would be targeted, and give us the Tribal discussion subtitled so we can follow what’s going on.  Shan tries to pitch the Brad vote to JD, who’s not super happy with it, though he says he’ll vote with Shan.  If I were Brad and Genie, I’d be more concerned at being left out of the whispering, but they just kind of sit there.  

We go to vote, and shock horror, JD risked his vote, and so gets his extra vote.  This would have been really clever editing if JD were a better liar.  It is, perhaps, the threat of this extra vote that leads to Ricard and Shan turning on Sara, leading her to be the second boot of the episode.  I am sorry to see her go, and not just because I had her in my draft.  No, her confessionals about her grandmother were truly heartwarming, and apart from not shaking one puzzle bag thoroughly, I really can’t say she made much of a mistake.  Ricard and Shan, on the other hand?  I get wanting to vote with a solid majority, especially with the threat of shots in the dark and extra votes making them gun-shy.  But after such open politicking at Tribal Council, do they not think that Genie, Brad, and JD will team up against them?  They’ll need to do some serious maneuvering to save themselves, especially when they could have had a majority, though I suppose they couldn’t have predicted Genie’s rogue vote for Ricard.  Speaking of which, I’m still not sure what Genie’s plan was there.  Was she genuinely confused?  Throwing a safety vote?  The possibilities are open, and I look forward to hearing her logic in the future.  

Despite my snark at the beginning, this is a FANTASTIC start to the season, and a great return of the show we all know and love!  Once we got past the cringe of the opening, we had an episode with good mystery, a likable and engaging cast, and overall excellent editing.  I quite enjoyed the “flashbacks”, even the ones that seem staged, as they make it feel like we’re getting to know the players more intimately than on previous season, always a good thing.  I didn’t ouch on it, but production is now less afraid of showing behind the scenes stuff, as in having cameras and boats in shots, which again, I’m all for.  Help us feel like a part of the show by showing its edges and spots, not trying to hide them.  Yes, Probst had some cringe moments, but in the overall product, they get lost, and the greatness outshines them for a rocking start.  Let us hope the pattern continues!

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 41” Cast Assessment

Congratulations to Rob for correctly identifying the title quote from last episode as originating from Charlie Herschel of “Survivor Gabon”.  Yes, I’m well aware that the contest was over a year ago, but so help me, we haven’t had a “regular” blog since then, and this commenter has EARNED their honor, delayed as it may be.  

Friends, readers, random-internet-passers-by, it is my pleasure, once again, to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  Yes, after over a year of starvation, we finally, FINALLY have new “Survivor” content to talk about.  Granted, I could wish for a bit more.  I mean, we have gotten the “EW” pictures and biographies, which are usually the marker for when I do these Cast Assessments, but you don’t want to give us anything?  No photos and bios of your own?  No videos of each of the contestants talking about their strategy?  You’re not even going to give us the official tribe divisions?  Of course not!  I mean, HEAVEN FORBID we know who’s playing with whom before the start of the season!  How dare we analyze tribe dynamics, and speculate pre-season, thereby driving up interest and internet traffic?  Do you know where that leads?  Chaos!  Chaos I say!  

Ok, ok, enough griping at CBS.  I can still work with this, even if it’s not as much as I’m used to, and I can’t analyze tribe dynamics as I normally do (yes, I’m aware that there’s a rumored tribe division from “Inside Survivor”, but until the divisions are announced officially, I don’t consider it canon, and thus won’t write about it.  And I’m not going to frame-by-frame the preview we DID get to try and match people with buff colors.  I do have something of a life).  So, no more joking around.  let us dig into the new players we, at long last, get to overanalyze.  

Sydney Segal (26, Law Student, Brooklyn, NY): Always nice to start off a cast assessment with a strong contender.  Yes, I think Sydney is slated to do pretty well on this season.  By and large, her bio is nothing to write home about.  Pretty standard stuff, talking about how social and athletic she is.  I find it a little weird to specifically refer to your father as a “second Messiah”, but hey, you do you.  The thing that stood out to me, and the thing that makes me high on Sydney’s chances, is the “Survivor” she compares herself to.  If you’re someone new to reading cast bios, you should know that there’s a group of about a half-dozen former players who generally show up in people’s biographies.  You can expect Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”), Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”), Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”), and Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) always show up, and to me, always spell doom for whoever picks the latter.  Then, of course, there are the “recency bias” picks, i.e. good players, but ones who only come from the most recent seasons, indicating this may just be someone production emphasized to the player.  Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) falls into this category, but she seems to have been replaced by Rick Devans (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) based on this most recent set of bios.  Now, who does Sydney say she’s most like?  Natalie White, winner of “Survivor Samoa”.  That’s a deep cut, right there.  Hard for anyone to stand out on “Survivor Samoa”, aka “The Russell Hantz Show”, so Syndey’s memory of her tells me she’s got the bona-fides.  Sydney also has a good analysis of Natalie’s game, noting her strength in social bonds and flying under the radar.  A solid analysis, and hardly a bad strategy for the game at all.  Sadly, I think Sydney is screwed out of a possible win by the age in which she plays “Survivor”.  Not to say that the “Natalie Strategy” as we may call it isn’t valid anymore, but the new jury format is pretty much set up to reward “big moves”, and more visible games.  While the “Natalie Strategy” has many upsides, visibility is not one of them.  Still, even if she’s unlikely to win, expect Sydney to stick around a while.  She’s got some good skills and is largely inoffensive, so there’s no need to boot her early.  Look to her as a later merge boot, possibly even one of the people out early in the finale.  Sure, I may be extrapolating a lot from a bio that didn’t give us a lot, but hey, if you don’t do anything that stands out as making you an early target, I say you’ve got at least a decent chance.  Besides, you could also say that Michele Fitzgerald’s bio on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” didn’t give us a lot to work with, and we saw how that turned out.  

Danny McCray (33, Ex-NFL Player, Frisco, TX): Hoo boy.  It’s time once again.  Time for the segment of “People Who Are Crazy For Thinking They’re Made For This Show”.  Look, Danny seems like a nice, overall dude.  I admire him for not just relying on his talent in sports to carry him through his entire life, and his drive to continue to improve himself at what the show considers an “older” age.  But one of the main things I look at in these bios is the “Pet Peeve” section, since I feel it can give a good idea of how well you get along with others, and if your first pet peeve is “Lying”?  Man, what were you thinking!  Sure, go on the show all about lying and backstabbing when that very thing gets to you.  See how far that gets you.  Danny has a lot of good characteristics, but unless his tribe needs physical strength very badly, or he’s able to put his distaste for lying aside, the man is a pre-merge boot for sure.  

Liana Wallace (20, College Student, Washington, DC): I’ll admit, I got a bit worried when I saw Liana talk about performing her spoken word poetry.  Nothing against the art form or those who practice it, but it gave me flashbacks to Semhar from “Survivor South Pacific”, whose game is NOT one you want to emulate.  Thankfully, this is where their similarities end, so I think Liana will do pretty well on the show.  Not a lot to recommend her one way or the other.  She just seems like a nice, adventurous, younger player who won’t hold her team back anyway, and be pretty inoffensive overall.  Two things stop me from saying she’ll make it too deep, though.  She suggests emulating Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Elaine (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), so I don’t know about her game knowledge credentials, as both were on the last two seasons.  Plus, I don’t see their play styles meshing very well.  The real thing that I think holds her back from a win, though, is her age.  I know we’ve had winners nearly as young before, but I think back to my college days, and even though I THOUGHT I had the skills to win at that time, I really didn’t.  I had more growing-up to do, and while Liana seems lovely overall, I just have a hard time saying anyone that young has a good shot at winning.  Still, like Sydney earlier, Liana is an inoffensive asset to her tribe, so I expect her to be out no earlier than the early-merge, and probably more like mid-merge, given the group of people on this season.  

Brad Reese (50, Rancher, Shawnee, WY): A fun fact about Brad is that he’s the first player to ever hail from the state of Wyoming.  Perhaps not surprising, as it does have the smallest population in the USA, but still fun.  I hope Brad enjoys that fact, because there’s little else to recommend him.  His bio gives us practically nothing, just a lot of generic platitudes about strength and outdoorsmanship.  As such, we have to consider how well he fits in with this group of players as a whole.  Not well.  The answer is not well.  Brad has the misfortune of being an older guy on a season that, while not as bad as some, skews young overall.  Brad is a rural outdoorsman, while most of this cast is urban.  If Brad had talked a bit about his ability to fit in with diverse groups of people, I might give him more of a shot, but amongst this group, Brad sticks out like a sore thumb, and I just don’t see him getting along with these people.  As such, Brad is my pick to be the first person out this season.  Sorry, Brad, and sorry, Wyoming.  Maybe you can get another player with a group more simpatico to their lifestyle.  

Erika Casupanan (32, Communication Manager, Toronto, ON): At last, Canada has a representative on this show!  Ok, yeah, they had Tom Laidlaw on “Survivor Island of the Idols”, but really, did they, for all the impact Tom had on the season?  Besides, Erika is a MUCH better representative overall.  Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we go from the worst to the best.  Erika is one of my two winner picks for this season!  Why, you may ask?  Well, as with most of the winners, she has a good balance.  Athletic, without seeming to be a threat.  Sociable, without descending into obsequiousness.  From her questionnaire, while she does list “ignorance” as one of her pet peeves, she’s not guaranteed to come up against it, and her other, “men in ill-fitting jeans” shows a good sense of humor on her part, always an asset.  She calls out good but less remembered-players in Brenda (“Survivor Nicaragua”) and Todd (“Survivor China”) as her inspirations.  And all in an unassuming package.  If I HAD to find a flaw that could cost her the game, I could see her being slightly arrogant.  She talks about paying off her student loan debt at age 27, and if she brags about that, or how smart she is, that could cost her.  That said, she seems to have enough social sense to keep that on the down-low, and I can easily see her rocketing to victory.  

Jairus Robinson (20, College Student”, Oklahoma City, OK): Jairus is one of the few players here that I have a bit more information on than some of the others.  His audition video happened to show up on YouTube, and I watched it.  This is good, because a lot of Jairus’ bio comes off as overconfident, talking about how he’s good socially, mentally, and physically.  Pretty generic, semi-bragging stuff that you see from most people, but again, especially with his age, could easily be him having a bad perception of himself.  Having seen his audition video, I can say that’s he’s not ENTIRELY unjustified in his claims.  If nothing else, the dude just EXUDES charm, and even from a 3-minute video, you can’t help but like the guy.  So yeah, of all the young people on this season, he’s the one I think his age will be least a factor for.  Still a factor, though.  Jairus will do reasonably well, being useful to his tribe and charming enough to work his way into an alliance, but will be blindsided some time in the mid-merge, just by being proverbially spun around by contestants with more life experience.  Good fodder for a returnee winner, though.  

Evvie Jagoda (28, Ph.D. Student, Arlington, MA): This is where the lack of tribe divisions gives me issue, as Evvie’s time in the game is almost entirely dependent on who she ends up playing with early game.  Her pet peeve, you see, is “machismo and man-splainers”.  There are some guys like that on the season, and thus who she’ll come into conflict with if she’s with them.  Given that these type of people tend to be useful in challenges, and thus more likely to be kept around, she’s probably out early if she’s with some of them.  Conversely, if she ends up on a tribe without such men, I could see her doing well.  She seems like she’d be a sensible, reliable alliance member.  A bit quirky, perhaps, but fun nonetheless.  That said, this blog does force me to pick one side or the other, and without the benefit of tribe divisions to give me an easy out… Sorry, Evvie, but I think you’re another pre-merge boot.  While I personally enjoy someone who’s quirky, and can hold a good, intelligent conversation (she spent an entire podcast talking about Neanderthal women.  That is awesome.), said type of person also tends to stand out in a crowd, not a good thing in the early days of “Survivor”.  I pray that I’m wrong, as I really like her and think she makes for good tv, but if I have to choose, I think pre-merge for her, unfortunately.  

Ricard Foye (31, Flight Attendant, Sedro-Wooley, WA): Apologies for not having an accent over the “e” in “Foye”, but I can never remember how to do that with a standard English keyboard.  Getting onto Ricard specifically, I like the guy.  In fact, I’d say he’s my favorite of the season. He’s charming, but still with a personality that stands out.  Dude has a lot of eclectic life experiences, but still down to earth with a relatable career and family life.  And that smile.  Dude just has a really engaging smile.  That alone may be enough to catapult him to victory, as Ricard is my second winner pick overall.  Put a gun to my head and force me to choose, I think Erika beats him, but Ricard still has pretty good shot.  Once again fairly athletic, but not obviously so.  But like I said, the dude just exudes charm, and I’m a social game like “Survivor”, it’s hard to discount the value of that.  With no major negatives that I can note, I can’t help but give the guy my seal of approval, and my second winner pick.  Plus, the dude says he wants to emulate Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  Can’t help but like a dude that likes Aubry.  

Shantel Smith (34, Pastor, Washington, DC): Ooh, sorry, Canada.  Not hitting on both cylinders, even this time.  Yes, I know that Shantel is currently not living in Canada, but it’s her hometown, so she still counts.  At first, I was pretty high on Shantel.  Good age for self-knowledge and game knowledge.  Good life experience.  “Bad breath” as a pet peeve a bit concerning, but hey, you don’t need to stand nose-to-nose with someone while they’re talking, and maybe her tribe will win the “toothbrush and mouthwash” reward.  A good role model in Xena.  But ooh, the religion angle.  Long-time readers will know I’m gun-shy about such overt religion on “Survivor” ever since we were seeped in it in “Survivor South Pacific”.  Yes, since then some overtly religious individuals such as Lisa Welchel (“Survivor Philippines”) or Sunday Burquest (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) have done well, but the overall trend is more towards religion separating that person from other, less-religious people, particularly in a largely a-religious cast like this one seems to be.  I tried to ignore it, and when Shantel predominately cites her “reverence for God”, as why she’ll win, I can’t ignore it any longer.  She’s not the first boot by any means, but I expect her out pre-merge.  

Naseer Muttalif (37, Sales Manager, Morgan Hill, CA): Poor Naseer.  The guy seems like an interesting character with a unique backstory, so I wanted to see him do well.  Sales is one of the few careers that I think CAN help one prepare for “Survivor” in some small way, so I hoped that Naseer might be able to parlay that into a long stay in the game.  Unfortunately, the rest of his bio does not do him any favors.  His pet peeves are “Laziness and people who don’t contribute to group efforts”, meaning unless he’s on a VERY cohesive and successful tribe early on, he’s going to rub some people the wrong way.  Then you have to add onto that his backstory, which is interesting.  He talks about coming up from being a vegetable farmer, and growing up without electricity in Sri Lanka.  Good stuff, but the dude comes across a bit arrogant, in the “I’m living the American Dream” kind of way.  Not saying he hasn’t earned it, but that kind of talk can get old fast, and if he keeps bringing it up, it won’t do him any favors.  It’s possible he can be more sociable thanks to his sales training, and if his tribe is successful early on, he might make the merge.  There, though, he becomes a threat, so I see him making it no farther than an early-merge boot of this season, unfortunately.  

Genie Chen (46, Grocery Clerk, Portland, OR): Ack!  Pain!  PAIN!  This hurts.  So much.  God Damn, I love Genie already.  An older lady who likes video games.  An older lady not afraid to get out and hustle.  Her pet peeves revolve around proper mask wearing, you guys!  If you don’t love Genie at least a little, then I don’t know what happened to you.  But love, unfortunately, does not win the game of “Survivor”, and much like Evvie, the very things that make me like her are the things that make her a likely early boot on the show.  She’s older and not as athletic; always an issue in the early game.  She stands out from the other contestants, which again, good tv, bad for game.  Unless she’s on an exceptionally winning tribe, she’s going to be an early target and our screens will be the worse for it.  I hope that I’m wrong.  I hope she becomes the next Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and shows us heretofore unexpected social prowess that allows her to get deep and dominate the game!  More likely, however, she’s yet another pre-merge boot.  

Xander Hastings (21, App Developer, Chicago, IL): I swear this bio must be wrong.  It may say he’s 21, but the guy gives off more of a “20 year old” vibe than any of the ACTUAL 20 year olds!  A dude-bro to the end, the dude focusses on athletics above all else.  Hell, his idols in the game are predominately Jay (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”), but also Joe (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and Devon (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  Maybe it’s just my disdain for the dude-bro archetype (a large contributing factor in why I disagree with those who say Reynold from “Survivor Caramoan” should play again), but I REALLY don’t like this guy, and I get the sense that others won’t as well.  I would not put any of the above players into the “stellar player” category, but Xander is DEFINITELY beneath them.  Those guys had a certain charm, and at least a MODICUM on intelligence to help them get by.  I get none of that from Xander, and thus, he is yet another pre-merge boot.  Plus, on top off all that stuff, his pet peeves are “Laziness and cockiness”, two things that are clearly NEVER seen on this show (please note the sarcasm)!

Sara Wilson (24, Healthcare Consultant, Boston MA): Well, there’s one of these in every cast assessment.  One person who I just can’t get a good read on.  Nothing.  This woman gives me nothing.  Her pet peeves are pretty typical (loud chewing, crude humor, etc.), with only uncleanliness standing out at all, and even then only in a minor way.  Admires Kim Spradlin of “Survivor One World”, which is always a plus, though I’m not sure Sara has the life experience to pull it off.  And that’s it.  that’s all I’ve got for her.  She’s inoffensive, but doesn’t make a big splash on the tv screen.  That said, being quiet can be an advantage, and again, like with Sydney, if you’ve got nothing holding you back, I’m inclined to think you’ll do well.  We may not see much of Sara, but she’ll be there a while.  Probably out somewhere in the mid-merge area, as a blindside vote to avoid an idol.  

David Voce (35, Neurosurgeon, Chicago, IL): Once again, bad flashbacks based on an element of the bio.  This time, I see “Neurosurgeon”, and I jump to Sean Kenniff of “Survivor Borneo”.  Terrible at strategy, but hey, fun to watch.  Sadly, while David definitely has a leg up on Sean in terms of strategy, I’d say charm is severely lacking.  Similar to Xander, his pet peeves are “incompetence, laziness, and a lack of self-awareness”.  Can pretty much guarantee at least 2/3 of those on any given tribe on any given season.  Dude’s smart, which can help, but admits to a “confident exterior”, which can lead to arrogance, which again, get’s old fast.  His nail in the coffin is that he’s yet another person who thinks it’s a good idea to emulate Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”).  To be fair, he DOES acknowledge the flaws in Russell’s game, and names several other players he feels he embodies, but it’s a resume stain that’s REALLY hard to rub away.  He’s lucky in that there’s a couple of other players we’ve talked about so far (Xander in particular), who have some similar issues that he does, and in a greater capacity in my assessment, which may make him seem more reasonable and even-keeled by comparison.  The thought won’t go away in others, however, particularly if David doesn’t end up on a tribe with someone else as confident as him  He’s probably smart enough to slip by pre-merge, but once all the other people who annoy the rest of the cast are gone, he’s on the chopping block.  Assuming another oversized merge, he’s probably the easy consensus boot for annoying everyone else, and goes then.  

Deshawn Radden (26, Medical Student, Miami, FL): I’ve been kind of hard on the guys lately, haven’t I?  Thankfully, Deshawn gives me a well-deserved break from that!  The dude starts out a bit weak in his bio, to be fair.  Pet peeve is being told what to do, which is bound to come up.  Apart from that, however, the man is solid.  Another athlete who is not obviously athletic, and a charmer with a great smile.  Obviously a thinker, but not leaning into the “nerd” archetype so much, which makes for a nice change.  Yeah, a lot of other people have said similar things, and I gave them flak for it, but I’m charmed by the guy even just looking at his picture.  If, in the game, he has even a fraction of that charm, he’ll go far.  The pet peeve is enough to keep him out of a possible winner’s slot for me, and if he does get into an argument with the wrong person, he could go early, but I’d expect his charm to carry him for a while.  Probably mid-to-late merge area, if I were to put a relative number on it.  

Tiffany Seely (47, Teacher, Plainview, NY): Another case where I REALLY wish we had tribe divisions.  Tiffany is our “Mom” of the season, an archetype with an overall bad track record outside of Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”).  Granted, this season has a fair share of “older players”, but it still skews young, and the general trend on “Survivor” is that the young people either vote out the “Mom” early, or let her get to the end and then are upset that she voted them out.  Tiffany really needs to be on a tribe with a couple other older people, both for camouflage and to prevent being cast too fully as the “Mom”.  Not helped are her choices of whom to emulate on the season.  I’m always a fan when people name a contestant of a different gender whom they’re like, but Ozzy (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Colby (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) are not the type of games that do well these days.  Unless she gets lucky with the tribe draw, expect Tiffany to be a pre-merge boot.  

Eric Abraham (51, Cyber Security Analyst, San Antonio, TX): Eric falls into the rare “Dad” archetype, in my assessment.  This makes him tough to analyze, as there’s not really anyone else who falls into the “Dad” role so easily and obviously as Eric does.  I thought they might focus on his cyber-security job; come across as really analytical and the like  But Eric seems to see himself more as a father and family man than anything.  This can be good and comforting, and while a benefit, I don’t see him winning “Survivor” with that strategy.  It falls into a similar pitfall as the “Mom” archetype, with any betrayal seeming personal.  Plus, anyone with an Oedipus complex is going to want Eric out.  While it’s hard to psychoanalyze people based off a short interview, however, I don’t see anyone going quite that far, and thus, I don’t see Eric being an early target.  Yes, he is old.  In fact, he’s the second-oldest person playing this season.  But you wouldn’t know it from looking at him, so unless he’s the reason his tribe loses an early challenge, I expect Eric’s fatherly demeanor to keep him around a while.  Probably a mid-merge boot, maybe a bit earlier if someone really wants to go full Oedipus.  

Heather Aldret (52, Stay-at-Home Mom, Charleston SC): Well, I spoke too soon.  Meet the ACTUAL mom archetype of the season, as well as the oldest person playing.  Sadly for Heather, I don’t think she has even Tiffany’s ability to blend in.  Older, not obviously athletic, an archetype with a tendency to go out early?  Yeah, she may pay lip service to her skills at observation, and make reasonable player comparisons for herself, but unless she surprises me with evidence to back it up, I don’t see her lasting very long.  Even if she ends up on a tribe with other “older” players, she’s from a different lifestyle than most of the other players this season.  Nothing wrong with that, but it makes it difficult for her to fit in, and thus tanks her chances in the game.  We end on the downer note of one final pre-merge boot.  

Man, that was refreshing!  I may not be able to discuss tribe dynamics here but I can still discuss the cast.  I’ve gotta say, I think it’s a pretty good one.  In the COVID-19 Hiatus, amongst other things, CBS promised more diversity in casting, with at least 50% of each cast being BIPOC, a decision I’m all for, and I think this cast alone shows the benefits of doing so!  For all my snark, this is overall an engaging, likable cast.  Most everyone brings at least some unique experience to the table that adds to the flavor of the whole season, and there’s no one I really dislike on sight (except for Xander, and I’ll leave myself open to the possibility that his bio brought out the worst in him, and he’ll actually be quite a likable guy on-screen).  Obviously, we don’t know how things could play out, but based on the VERY little information we’ve gotten, I’m optimistic about how this season will play out.  

Then, we should at least talk a bit about the one video CBS DID deign to give us: A 3-minute preview where Probst talks about things to come.  First off, I was glad to see that they’re not hiding the fact that the season is shortened due to COVID-19.  I have nothing against them shortening the season, recognizing its necessity, but was afraid they might try and pull the wool over our eyes.  Thankfully, they fully admit the abbreviated nature of the season, and as such, I default to what seems to be people’s general attitudes towards this change: “Nothing wrong with it, but I hope it doesn’t stay as a permanent fixture post-COVID”.  As a fan who does enjoy the challenges, I fear that if seasons stay abbreviated, those’ll be the first things to get the axe.  The game will still be the game we all enjoy, and faster or slower, it’s good to have it back.  If this is what it takes, it’s a more than fair price.  

Probst was also keen to tout simple play-along picture puzzles for younger viewers.  Unless they’re super-intrusive, and distract from the game, I don’t mind the inclusion.  The puzzles seemed a bit simplistic to me, but hey, they’re explicitly for kids, and engagement is a good thing.  One of the few things I actually liked about “Survivor Nicaragua” was the giving us a similarly-styled idol clue to try and figure out before the players.  Fun, engaging idea.  Just don’t let it get in the way of what we came to see.  

The announcement I have the most opinions on, though, is the “asides”.  Probst has said he and production plan to let fans watching know about twists thrown in the game before they happen.  I’ll have to wait and see how they’re implemented before giving a final judgement, but I’m not a fan of this idea at the outset.  Don’t misunderstand, I get why they plan to do it.  It’s more engagement, like with the puzzles, though this time more for the older fans watching.  But for me, I feel like we superfans already did that.  Whenever some new twist or opportunity was in the game, we always backseat game.  Debated what we would have done in another player’s shoes.  But above all, knowing the twist before it happens ruins the surprise, and kind of kills the engagement in a way.  When we learn about a twist the same time as the players, we can play along with them.  React in the moment.  Probst, however, is talking about letting us know the twists early, before the players do.  This gives us more time to think, and actually removes us more from the players, rather than bringing us closer to them.  Plus, when the show is already struggling to fit everything it has into its short air time, extra narration is something we DO NOT NEED!  

That said, it’s usually cast, not production decisions, that make or break a season.  There are exceptions (see “Survivor Edge of Extinction”), but on the whole, you have a good cast, you have a good season.  For my money, it looks like “Survivor 41” has quite a good cast, so I look forward to writing with you all about them on a weekly basis come September 22nd!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.