Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 5: Going Full Shii-Ann

Look, I enjoy Shii-Ann Huang (“Survivor Thailand”) more than some. She gives a good confessional, she plays hard, never gives up, and accepts losing gracefully. All of this I very much like in a “Survivor” contestant. But I’m not going to sit here and tell you that her gameplay is good to repeat, and we see that as the case tonight, or at least some foreshadowing for it.

Skipping over the foreshadowing that now substitutes for our “Previous On…” segment, we get a rarity: cutting to the day AFTER a divisive vote, not before. Evidently Dean needed a full night to process what happened, and I have to say, he is CRUSHED. He did a good job keeping his voice in check, and didn’t really rage at anyone to their face, but the look on his face just shows how utterly defeated he is by this move.

Defeat is not the end of the journey, however. Dean puts on his best deerstalker hat (the hat Sherlock Holmes wears, for the uninitiated), and sets out to figure out who orchestrated this particular hit. After ruling out himself, Chelsea, and Tom (though I would point out the latter is ruled out purely on circumstantial evidence), Dean sets to questioning. “Questioning” in this case refers to a big game of “telephone”. Elaine doesn’t know who started it. Karishma was the last to know. Aaron heard it from Elaine, but thinks she didn’t start it. Elizabeth doesn’t have any idea who started it. And Missy says no one person started it; that it was just kind of a group thing. All very confusing for Dean, but one of these things is not like the others. One of these things just doesn’t belong. Missy’s frankly very flimsy lie gets Dean’s hackles up, and now he’s out for blood. Missy, for her part, still thinks this was the best move for her alliance. Sure, Missy. Eliminating someone who up to this point had been a loyal alliance member is a GREAT move, SURE to not backfire on you in the near future.

Incidentally, the only reason the title of this blog is not a “Sherlock Holmes” reference is that no one seemed close enough to Dean for him to say “Elementary” to.

We get to our reward challenge, and I’m impressed. Not by the challenge. It’s a mediocre reused challenge. No, I’m impressed because we had a switch with NO FORESHADOWING in the episode itself. No cliche confessionals about how someone is on top and nothing can go wrong, or how someone’s on the bottom and needs a miracle to survive. We’re sure a switch is happening, right?

Not only a switch, but a switch rarity these days. As the lack of a third lane in the challenge would indicate, we’re remaining at two tribes for this switch. I have to say, I am thrilled. Now, this might seem weird, given that switching up two tribes is literally the oldest twist in “Survivor” (not counting the 42-days of “Survivor The Australian Outback”), but think about how long it’s been. “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers” kept the number of tribes the same at the switch, but since we had three tribes, it felt new and different. But in recent years, the number of tribes has other grown or shrunk at every switch, to the point where it’s getting predictable. The last time we had a switch like this was five years ago on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Yes, we technically had one on “Survivor Ghost Island”, but that was much earlier in the game, and be honest, does anyone remember it, over the later split? I thought so. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and in this case, makes the twist like new again.

Since our switch method is as usual nothing to comment on, I’ll skip ahead to the switched tribes themselves. Contrary to the show’s order of things, I’m going to examine the new Lairo first, because I find them more interesting. Evidently Lairo is just doomed to be the disaster tribe, since all fractions in alliances ended up there, by and large. Karishma, Tom, and Dean remain, with Jack, Janet, Jamal, Noura, and Kellee coming over from Vokai. From our threesome, you have Karishma, who’s been the alternate target at most Tribal Councils so far and not happy about it; Dean, who’s furious at his old tribe; and Tom, who’s now not connected with much of anybody. Not to say that old Vokai does much better here. True, Kellee and Janet can be assumed to be aligned, and Jack seems to have no real beef with anyone. But you have Jamal, who’s out for revenge and has an idol, and Noura, who just annoys everybody. Point being, this tribe could break any number of ways, making it all the more interesting to watch.

Contrast this with the new Vokai, which falls along a more traditional 4-4 split. Tommy, Dan, Jason, and Lauren remain, being joined by Elaine, Missy, Elizabeth, and Aaron. Some cracks there, with Jason having been an early target, and Aaron being on the outs after the first vote, but not nearly as strong. Both were pulled back into the fold, the former by voting with the majority, the latter by allying with Missy. Maybe someone from either side could exploit that, but this seems like the less interesting of the two splits.

Luckily, I doubt that new Vokai will be seeing much of Tribal Council. Nearly all the challenge beasts, both physically and mentally, are on new Vokai. Yes, new Lairo has Janet and Jack, neither of whom are that bad, but most of their competitors are kind of middling, and they also have Karishma, whose status as a challenge sink is brought to the forefront in this episode. Add in that Lauren is the only person shown to be great with puzzle’s so far this season, and don’t look for new Vokai to lose, unless they throw a challenge.

New Vokai gets an immediate chance to prove their mettle with a reward challenge. Borrowing from both “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” and “Survivor Caramoan”, pairs of people will be tied together with their arms and legs bound, and must crawl over sandbars. Once all three pairs complete their leg, the remaining two solve a fire puzzle. Neither of these elements are bad. Indeed, I praised this innovative new challenge when it first appeared on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”. But the simple fact is that it just feels flat. Maybe it’s only having two tribes race, maybe it’s how underwhelming the puzzle is, but this challenge just didn’t cut the mustard like its predecessors.

Sure enough, new Vokai turns in a dominating performance. They were ahead on pretty much every leg, but Karishma needed to be dragged up her hill by Noura really did new Lairo no favors. Thus, Vokai gets their reward: the ability to bathe before the end-of-challenge banter. Seriously, did no one notice that new Vokai were spick and span, while new Lairo were covered in sand? I know Vokai did well, but they couldn’t avoid freaking sand on a sandbar. Oh, and Applebees. I guess that qualifies as a “reward”. If you’re starving. In any other situation, and I say this as someone who has eaten Applebees many times in this life, Applebees is more “punishment” than “reward”.

Edible matter is edible matter, though, and with some alcohol to hopefully kill some tastebuds, new Vokai partakes. Tommy plays diplomat, after schilling for Applebees some more, and welcomes everyone to one unified tribe. Elaine, who had earlier been worried about her luck in a tribe swap, is happy both at the love and at the 4-4 split, meaning she has a shot. That said, Elaine is no dummy, and realizes this is the “honeymoon” phase, meaning of course everyone’s happy. Tommy can claim “One Tribe” all he wants, but we’ve heard that schpiel from contestants before, and it may have meant nothing. Hence, Elaine keeps a close eye on the proceedings, but doesn’t like what she sees. Missy in particular is WAY too happy with the new tribe, saying the old Lairo is done, and she wants a win. Eliane is rightfully concerned, though I do think she overreacts to this news a bit. She herself said this is the honeymoon phase, so of course Missy’s going to seem overly happy. Just because she says she wants to win doesn’t automatically mean she’s abandoning her old tribe loyalties.

Karishma, however, has no hangups with throwing her old tribe under the bus. She pulls Kellee aside right away, and informs her of everything that went down. And I mean EVERYTHING! Since we’ll soon see that Dean and Tom are going to throw her under the bus, and since her challenge performance did her no favors, Karishma definitely needed to ingratiate herself with her new tribe. But giving up EVERYTHING? Karishma should be concerned that she’s always the alternate boot, but it’s not like she had no allies on the old Lairo. Granted, she has no reason to be loyal to Dean or Tom, but assuming you make the merge, you’ll meet up with the likes of Missy, who HAS been good to you. You really want to burn that bridge down the line?

In case it wasn’t obvious, this is where Karishma goes full Shii-Ann, as alluded to earlier. Apart from her “Stupid People” confessional on “Survivor All-Stars”, Shii-Ann is probably best known for blatantly swinging to the old Chuay Gahn tribe on “Survivor Thailand”, thinking they had merged. The Probst said “psyche”, and Shii-Ann was promptly voted out. Karishma here is basically doing the same thing, minus the “psych” bit. Now, as I said before, she needs to do something to save herself, so what’s so wrong here? In terms of keeping herself alive, nothing. Karishma could do little better to ensure she stays in the game until the end. But Karishma has just also killed any chance she had of winning. Any old Lairo on the jury are going to be too pissed at her to ever vote for her, while any old Vokai just won’t care and/or see her as weak. She’s GREAT for any of the old Vokai, since she’s so open and now presumably loyal, but in terms of winning? I hate to say this with such certainty, but no way it’s Karishma. One nice thing about Karishma? Her talk with Jack and Janet about her heritage. It’s actually a very honest and sweet conversation, and the pair are nothing but supportive of Karishma’s views. Gotta love that little bit of bonding we get.

Not to say that Karishma’s the only one making bonds with the old Vokai. Paralleling Marcus and Crystal on “Survivor Gabon”, Dean and Kellee find they both have a friend in common outside the game. Dean uses this as an excuse to bond, and Kellee is certainly open to it, though at this point, she’s just out weighing her options, as she should. I’d be careful if I was Dean, though. The bond of a mutual friend means very little without that friend there, as Marcus discovered in what I’d argue is the best Tribal Council of “Survivor Gabon”.

Moving back to Vokai, we see that I was slightly wrong in my prediction of “No cracks”. The alcohol has worn off now, and we see that Missy and Aaron are set on dismantling the old Lairo. Yep, sure glad to see yet ANOTHER orange tribe self-destruct. Seriously, that color’s becoming more cursed than the name “Kelly” on this show. Aaron starts things off with… his socks. Ok, not the greatest of starts, but when you’ve got socks that distinctive, you roll with them. Aaron is brave enough to wear bright purple socks with his son’s face on them. His son is apparently a big fan of the show, so it’s really sweet. With kids involved, you can bet the person he bonds with is teacher Tommy. Yes, Tommy doesn’t even have to go out of his way to make bonds with people now; they just come up to him and do it anyway. The pair agree to use each other as meat shields, though Tommy make it clear he’s still with his original tribe. Aaron working with him is just another way to ensure their success. Missy also seems on board with this plan. Odd, considering the other targets then would be Elaine and Elizabeth, who she’s aligned with, but I can see her not wanting to rock the boat this time around. Our final nail in the coffin comes from Jason, whom Aaron tells his plans too. If anyone was going to break from the old Vokai on this tribe, it’s Jason. Yet, he too is all about “Vokai Strong”. Chalk up another win for a Vokai member, folks.

I’ll give the fracturing at new Vokai this: It makes the Immunity Challenge somewhat more interesting. Like our reward challenge, this is a repeat. In this case, “Octopus’ Garden” from “Survivor Cagayan”, the challenge Luzon infamously lost when another tribe was trying to throw it. Not a bad challenge, but one that’s become overused to the point of disgust for me. At least the “pair balance beam” was cool, though.

New Lairo does better in this challenge, but that’s not saying much. Even good editing can’t change new Vokai’s inherent challenge edge, though, and so they do end up winning. As three members of the new Lairo demonstrate, old Lairo members on their tribe are at their mercy. Noura talks about how Karishma is eating out of their hands, but is a challenge sink. Janet discusses a bond she’s built with Tom, but notes that he’s too loyal to old Lairo, and would probably abandon them at the merge. And Kellee exploits her connection with Dean, telling him the target is Karishma while privately admitting that he’s too charming. The three discuss their options, and Noura praises that fact that her lack of a vote can go unnoticed with a majority this big. Of these three options, I favor keeping Karishma the most. Yes, she is a challenge sink, but she’s a LOYAL challenge sink. Now, if the other players left were loyal original Vokai, this could be a problem, but you’ve got two non-loyal targets in Dean and Tom left over. You can lose another challenge and still be ok. Even if you lose beyond that, you’ve got Jamal, who has a grudge, and Noura, who’s annoying, that you can get rid of without offending your former tribe members. Plus, losing challenges keeps them safe, since as established, old Vokai on new Vokai are in a more precarious position that old Vokai on new Lairo. The merits of the remaining old Lairo are debated as well. Do you get rid of Tom, the weaker and less loyal of the two, or Dean, the one who’s charming and good at challenges, as a threat? For my part, I’d say voting out Tom is the best move for all involved (except Tom, of course). Of the three, Tom has the weakest bond with the old Vokai, meaning eliminating him eliminates the fewest bonds. True, Dean will probably not be happy, but hey, what can you do?

So far this episode, we’ve had neither hide nor hair of Boston Rob and Sandra. The cynical might think this is because the tribe swap messed up their way of choosing who goes next, but I’d like to argue that the show knows better than that, and is pulling back on them so we don’t get overexposed. Then, of course, they have to comment on virtually EVERY SINGLE LINE this Tribal Council. Yeah, this episode has been decent overall, but this Tribal Council really goes downhill. I’ll give it credit that the mystery going in is good, but when we have to cut away from our players so much, it really breaks the connection. On top of that, the mystery I mentioned? Yeah, it doesn’t stay forever. There’s some talk of weakness and “Vokai Strong” that could hint at a Karishma boot, but then Dean goes and makes a gaffe. He talks about having personal conversations with everyone, which is good, if you’ve actually done so. If not, you risk being called out on it, and looking like a sleazy jerk in the process. Sure enough, Dean is exaggerating, and Janet calls him on it. Such blatant foreshadowing is not even funny. As if it wasn’t obvious enough that Dean is now going, Boston Rob has to literally say it to the audience.

Man, this episode was doing pretty well. I’d hate for the ending to drag it down now. CUE THE EPIC MUSIC!

Epic music and a genuine surprise may yet save things. For all that it was the least foreshadowed, old Vokai did the smart thing and sent Tom home. Of the three, I’m probably the least sorry to see him go. Guy was a good sport, and unfailingly polite, but not as interesting a character as either Dean (now that he’s got his whole “detective” thing going) or Karishma. And again, probably the smartest choice.

This episode is not going to be one of the standouts of the season, but it’s still decent. We had a good exploration of both new tribes, and some good, if mockable, moments. But plot lines we’ve seen a bunch of times before, lackluster challenges, and a still pretty bad Tribal Council just pull this one into “low end of good” territory. Even so, I’m confident the season can pull back.

That said, you’ll have to wait a bit longer than usual to find out if the next episode hits the standards of some of the earlier episodes of the season. Unfortunately, my job occasionally requires that I work weird hours, and next Thursday is one such day. I’ll still have time to watch the new episode as it airs, but need to get to sleep right after, meaning no time for immediate blogging. As always, I promise to avoid reading other’s thoughts on the episode until I type my blog, so you’ll still get my unfiltered thoughts. Just a bit later than normal. Try to contain your tears.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 4: The Dumb Leading the Blind

Oh mighty and powerful “Survivor” Gods, if you can hear me, I beseech thee: Bestow upon me thy favor, as you have so bestowed your favor upon Karishma! I have but one humble request: Please do not let this season turn out to be another “Survivor Redemption Island”. Do not let us have three good episodes, followed by nothing but garbage afterwards!

Ah, but I’m getting ahead of myself into my thoughts. In fact, we can’t even talk about this episode yet, as we still have to talk about the last episode, as it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Yes, we had two episodes error-free, but I made a mistake and/or omitted something last time. Specifically, while I mentioned that Vince went home with an idol in his pocket, I neglected to give any commentary on his not playing his idol. Now, many have rightly pointed out that he only had two Tribal Councils to play it at, so why not play it, especially when there’s suspicion that he might have on. A reasonable argument, but to be fair to Vince, I think he had good reason not to play it. The women were clearly in power, and they did a convincing job of making him think he had their favor. Plus, what most people seem to forget is that it’s not good for “Two Tribal Councils”, but “Two Tribal Councils you attend.” Vince has good luck with the challenges, and that thing takes him to the merge. Granted, we know that that didn’t happen, but Vince couldn’t have known, and it’s not like Vokai badly loses every single challenge. They only do that with puzzles. Yes, in hindsight, Vince should have played his idol, but the women spun him well, and I can’t fault him too much for holding on to it.

Getting into our actual episode, you’d expect the tribe to be mostly copacetic with their near unanimous decision, since all knew who they wanted, but split the vote to be safe. And you’d be right, but with the exception of Karishma. While I do think she misidentified the causes of no one coming to her aid with the hand thing, that doesn’t mean she doesn’t get paranoid about stuff worth getting paranoid about. Case in point, Karishma correctly deduces that being the split boot means everyone considers her expendable, a fact confirmed in confessional. It’s not as cut and dried as that, however. Aaron, in particular, still hasn’t forgotten being left out of that first vote. Thus, he wants as many targets as possible, to keep himself off the radar. He finds fertile target ground in a blossoming showmance between Chelsea and Dean. Yes, the person with the idol, and the person who’s spoken all of two sentences on the show so far. Feel the chemistry. Aaron and Missy confer, agreeing that this is a problem that needs to be nipped in the bud. Can’t fault the logic in wanting to get Dean out. After all, he’s not a member of the core alliance, and with nowhere else to go after he leaves, Chelsea comes back into the women’s alliance. All Aaron gains is another spot ahead of him, but still, that’s not nothing.

Over at Vokai, we get a minor repeat of the J’Tia and the Rice situation from “Survivor Cagayan”, that is, sadly, both less exciting in its execution and in its results. Once again, the person left out of the vote is the person left alone at camp. In this case, members of the tribe agree to either go fishing or walking. Jamal agrees to stay behind. Admittedly no one can really call him on this without looking like a jerk themselves, but still, it’s made to seem like no one is suspicious, which you’d think at least Tommy would be, being the guy who saw the blowup of Jamal the closest. Jamal tries to tie idol-hunting into a bad relationship he had. If you think of the most forced “Survivor”/real life connection you can remember, this is pretty much similar. It does lead to success, as such anecdotes tend to do. While I may mock Jamal’s story, I can’t fault his idol hunting skills. While the tradition of the significant-looking tree remains, it was hidden off the trail and deeply camouflaged in the trunk, so I’m not surprised it took this long to find.

Jamal finding the idol also means we get our first up-close look at the hidden immunity idols this season, confirming once and for all that the art department was doing this season in their sleep. Ah yes, a tribe-colored string with some beads and a large seed. How distinctive.

The fishing expedition returning heralds another boat on the horizon. Naturally, this one is here to take someone to the Island of the Idols. This time, however, production has finally gotten their heads out of their butts, and realized that a random name-draw is boring. What they come up with is only marginally better, but better nonetheless. They basically take the rule from “Survivor Ghost Island”, and apply it to the tribe: Come to a unanimous decision, or draw rocks. At first, the tribe is all gung-ho about drawing rocks, but then Kellee comes in and points out that this is a stupid idea. I knew there was a reason I liked her! Yes, in a game with a decent amount of randomness already, the LAST thing you want to do is add more to it with a rock draw, not to mention you run the risk of your greatest enemy getting an advantage. Besides, it’s more fun to watch the social manipulation and negotiation. Show some backbone.

But who to send? With such a stigma against going, plus Kellee not wanting to be found out in her lie, very few people are eager to go. Lauren is downright terrified of the place. Tommy’s game relies on social bonds, not suspicion, so he doesn’t want to go. Jason does an impression of a stereotypical Jewish mother to convince himself not to go. Coby Archa (“Survivor Palau”) shows up volunteering to go, but is summarily ignored. Finally, Noura volunteers, and despite her being the obvious target, evidently people agree, as the next shot is her coming to the Island of the Idols. I guess the idea is that since she was already a target, she doesn’t have a downside in being sent, but guys, have you forgotten the “Possibly get an advantage” part? Admittedly, Kellee probably hasn’t mentioned that to allay suspicion, but you’ve got to have guessed it from the season name regardless! Why run the risk of your worst enemy getting an advantage?

Well, Noura is greeted by Boston Rob and Sandra, and it becomes clear that Noura is going to be running this particular Island of the Idols. Oh, Rob and Sandra can try and get a word in edgewise, but Noura is just going to talk right over them. Lucky for her, her lesson is about talking. More specifically, the “Art of Persuasion”. In case Boston Rob spelling it out for you wasn’t obvious we cut to a montage of famous persuasive moments in “Survivor” History. We have the mind screw of Erik Reichenbach from “Survivor Micronesia” (always good for a laugh), Parvati flirting with Adam on “Survivor Cook Island” (random, but ok, it’s Parvati, I get why this was included), Yul blackmailing Penner with his hidden immunity idol (a classic), Sandra making Russell Hantz paranoid (easy to do, but still fun to watch), and Boston Rob asking Lex to spare Amber (really, show? You want us to remember THAT part of “Survivor All-Stars? Why not show us Hatch rubbing against Sue while you’re at it?). Some ups and downs, but not the worst cross-section of “Survivor” I’ve ever seen.

This lesson is appropriate for Noura, and her challenge is correspondingly difficult. She’s informed that the immunity challenge with be a “Lead the blindfolded people” challenge, and that to get her advantage, she must convince her tribe to let her be the caller in the challenge. If she fails, she loses her vote, but if she succeeds, she gets a new advantage for the show: a vote block. She can essentially force one person not to vote at a Tribal Council. I applaud the show for coming up with new advantages, but I have to say, I’m not sure this is a good one. Yes, having one less vote, particularly against you, is a good thing, but you ruffle a lot of feathers using it, to very little gain.

Still, this should be an easy enough job for Noura. She’s naturally loud, which is an advantage in a caller, and she’s bossy enough to be good at this. Granted, the caller also needs to be good at puzzles, but we’ve seen no evidence that Noura isn’t at least decent at puzzles. Noura accordingly jumps at the chance, which Sandra and Boston Rob try and walk back. Man, they are REALLY desperate to be able to negotiate with someone.

Noura comes back to camp with not a terrible lie: I know the challenge and can help us practice, but you need to say I’m doing a specific part of the challenge. A little on the nose, but pulled off with subtlety, might work. Sadly this is Noura we’re talking about. Subtlety is not really in her wheelhouse, and she seems to crack a bit under the questioning, not coming up with convincing answers as to why this would be plausible. Probably, she would have been better off just telling the tribe, then volunteering to practice as the caller, citing her loud voice, and hoping to win them over that way. She does start practicing with the tribe for the challenge, and we see that bossiness does not lend itself to clarity. Noura’s micromanaging gets the job done, but slowly, in a challenge where speed is of the essence, and frustrates the tribe as a whole. About the only happy one is Kellee, since he secret is safe with Noura making such a fool of herself.

Off to our immunity challenge, and if I can praise this episode for anything, it’s the mystery! Yes, only Lairo has offered up multiple targets at this point, but Noura has had such a terrible performance this time that I could see the show forgoing mystery in favor of a humiliating “Downfall of Noura” episode. It will all depend on how she does at being the caller.

Or, you know, she could be the sit-out, cutting the story off at the knees, and guaranteeing another loss for Lairo. The show does its level best to give us dramatic tension, but sure enough, they lose.

Back at camp, Karishma seems to be the dead girl walking once again, as pretty much everyone says that they haven’t bonded with her, and to keep the tribe happy, it would be best to just stick with the plan. Plus, in the event of a swap, Karishma is a risk. She has nowhere to go but the women’s alliance on Lairo, but it won’t always just be the women’s alliance. Accordingly, Missy and Aaron want to keep that going by splitting up the showmance, and voting off Dean. Frankly, it’s probably the smartest decision they have, for the reasons I outlined at the top of the blog. When the float the plan to Elizabeth, however, she’s not on board. Neither is Elaine, who Elizabeth lets in on the plan, since she rightly points out that this plan leaves out Tom and Chelsea, further disuniting the tribe. Fair enough, but it’s better if you look at it as bringing Chelsea back into the fold. Do this, and the women all stay strong, and lose a person they didn’t need anyway. Tom may be mad, but what can he do? He’s got little choice. Besides, with all his talk of teamwork, Tom doesn’t strike me as the type who’d flip, even if he was pissed.

Word of this gets back to Missy and Aaron via Elizabeth, and I have to say she plays this well. By getting Elaine on her side, Elizabeth has a scapegoat for who’s the one ruining the plans. “Look, everyone, I want to go along with this, I really do, but Elaine just won’t do it, so we won’t have the numbers.” Gets things to go your way, without the risk of looking like the troublemaker. Especially good since her performance as the caller in the challenge, and subsequent breakdown, did not look good for her, so it’s nice to see her get her game face on.

All this pisses off Missy something fierce, and she complains about people “Not wanting to play the game.” Like Dan earlier in this episode, I have to make my eyes go in a circle here. I’ve said before and I’ll say again: Just because somebody isn’t playing the way you think they should DOESN’T mean they aren’t playing. They’re just playing a different, probably smarter, game than you. Missy then pesters Elaine for a new target, even throwing Chelsea’s name into the mix as an alternative way to split the showmance up as we head to Tribal Council.

The topic of tonight’s Tribal Council is chaos, which will be shown visually this time. It’s barely been an hour at the time of this writing, and I still can’t make heads or tails of what happened. People talked about bullets flying at random, going all the way back to “Plan Z” (evidently this tribe likes “Spongebob Squarepants”), nothing makes sense here! The one thing this Tribal Council has going for it is the complete unknown of the target. About four people on an eight-person tribe have been targeted, leaving things very up in the air as to who will go home. Still, mystery alone is not enough. This Tribal Council has been decent, but nothing spectacular. It needs something to push it over the edge. Cue the awesome music!

Chaos, while entertaining, is not always satisfying. It can lead to situations like Jeremy’s ouster on “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. We got surprised, but also no idea how we got here. That’s what happened tonight, as Chelsea leaves, idol in pocket. She should have known after telling Probst how she likes blindsides. I am very sorry to see Chelsea go. Most of the other targets (save Dean) were interesting characters as well, but Chelsea was a superfan, and playing a decent strategic game. I’d have liked to see more of it.

That said, this is the first really dumb move of the season. I wasn’t a big fan of Molly going out, but there was at least some logic to it. Here, voting out Chelsea goes against both possible stated goals. If you want a unified tribe, well, Karishma was the most on the outs, and the greatest threat in a swap. If you wanted to strengthen the women’s alliance, you needed to vote out a guy. Chelsea does neither of those things. All she does is split up the showmance, and again, in terms of the women’s alliance, Dean’s a better bet. Sorry, ladies. There’s no way to spin this as a good thing.

Yeah, like I said at the top, this was just not a good episode. If I had to sum it up in one word, it would be “Crowded”. Up until this point the show’s done a good job of balancing game time with time on Island of the Idols. This time, however, it dominated. We had one short scene at Lairo, one short scene at Vokai, the Island of the Idols, then immunity challenge. This led to pretty much all the strategizing happening between the challenge and Tribal Council, which just makes things too difficult to follow. This is by no means an irredeemable episode, but definitely confusing and weak, especially compared to the other high-quality episodes we’ve had so far this season. Still, I don’t feel a bad episode deserves to end on a bad note. Yes, it is time once again to bring back…

TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5!

Yep, while topics have been scarce on the ground as of late, it seems we’ve yet to do a list of the best and worst blindfolded challenges in the history of the show. The Noura arc this episode kind of overshadowed it, but these blindfolded challenges are always good for suspense, action, and lowbrow comedy. How did this season stack up? Let’s start listing off the blindfold challenges of seasons past and find out!

TOP 5

5. “Survivor Cagayan”: Normally, as we’ll see, there’s a lot of physical comedy in this category. “Survivor Cagayan”, however, is an exception. There’s very little physical comedy, and what little there is is mostly groin shots, which are more painful than funny. However, this challenge took to Luzon tribe, already a comedy of errors in the challenge department, put them in a challenge designed to be a comedy of errors, and you’ve got yourself a lot of fun. J’Tia losing the challenge by being unable to pull up a basket in sync with the rest of her tribe? Hilarious.

4. “Survivor Ghost Island”: Later seasons really do tend to cut back on the physical humor of these challenges, which is why you won’t see many of them on this list. When the comedy comes from other places, though, it still works. Case in point, while the competency of callers varies from challenge to challenge, rarely have we seen one fail at grabbing the essentials. This challenge would have been bland and forgettable were it not for Wendell, funnily enough, forgetting to grab the puzzle pieces, and needing to run the course again just to get them. Not funny enough to land higher on the list, but still memorable.

3. “Survivor The Australian Outback”: Sometimes, all you need is an ending. This one was a pretty dull challenge to begin with. Just a bunch of random tasks with no rhyme or reason. But then, Jerri out of nowhere fails at directing Amber to put a basket on a table, leading to an exciting comeback victory for Kucha. A lot of tension and humor to be had. It loses points for the lackluster end to the challenge, but that moment alone deserves a spot on this list.

2. “Survivor Vanuatu”: This particular iteration of a blindfold challenge has a lot of the hallmarks of these sorts of challenges. Callers missing the obvious. People running into objects. People running into each other. Having some pieces out in the water helps make this one a memorable one, but what sets it apart is Sarge yelling “Say my name!” at the end of it all. It’s hard to not join in his triumph, and I defy anyone to tell me it’s not a memorable moment. Seriously, why has Sarge never been on again?

1. “Survivor All-Stars”: It’s the simple things in life. This challenge may not have had the most exciting ending, though the upset of Chapera actually losing a challenge was cool. But moment for moment, this has the best comedy. Lex wandering off on his own. Hatch getting things confused. Big Tom being hit in the head repeatedly. Had this gotten more serious, it would have been an awful challenge. Since no lasting harm was done, though, we can laugh at it. And laugh we shall.

Honorable Mention: “Survivor Gabon”: This challenge is a bit of an odd one. There is the “blindfolded person and caller” element to it, but in this case, that’s only to stop a ball rolling down a hill thrown by the other tribe. A fun and creative challenge, but not strictly a blindfold challenge, which keeps it off the list proper. If nothing else, though, it deserves credit for Randy Bailey thinking of calling out to the other player. A brilliant move that gave Kota a well-deserved win. Well done, Randy.

BOTTOM 5

5. “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”: This was the first blindfold challenge to have the people stay blindfolded while doing a puzzle (no, the blindfold maze from “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” doesn’t count, since it’s not strictly a puzzle), which was a good way to shake things up. Unfortunately the rest of the challenge was kind of lackluster, and needed the puzzle to be difficult to really recommend it. Suffice to say, it was not, and the challenge just kind of falls flat as a result.

4. “Survivor Island of the Idols”: Maybe I’m being mean here, but this one really just didn’t do it for me. We’ve seen all these obstacles before, so they just kind of blend together in my mind, making the whole affair forgettable, even now. Again, I appreciate them doing the puzzle blindfolded, but this time, with no mystery as to who was winning, it just didn’t have the edge or the physical comedy needed to save it.

3. “Survivor Tocantins”: I applaud them for trying something different here, but different doesn’t always mean better. Here, blindfolded people had to make their way through more of a maze than an obstacle course, which is certainly difficult, but not all that interesting to watch. Pouring things into buckets while blindfolded should also be fun, but something just seems off about it. Maybe it’s the labels on the gutters, but this challenge just felt “off” somehow.

2. “Survivor Nicaragua”: Once again, “Survivor Nicaragua” does something wrong. This was when the show tended to put more “modern” things in the show as rewards and I didn’t like it. Here, you had a simple blindfold challenge to pick up various camping items. Not exciting, no physical comedy, and didn’t really fit the show. Need I say more?

1. “Survivor Worlds Apart”: Like I said before, physical comedy is funny, up until you hit the point where people are actually injured. Kelly having that severe a head wound is not fun to watch, and just retroactively makes everything about the challenge worse. For all my gripes, this is the only blindfold challenge I have a real problem with, since it makes me uncomfortable rather than having fun with the concept, like any good challenge should.

Honorable Mention: “Survivor The Amazon”: At first glance, this seems like a pretty standard blindfold challenge. People bumping into each other, people making gaffes. Why put it on the bottom list? Well, according to audio commentary on “Survivor All-Stars” it’s because of missed potential. Butch was the caller for the men, and he was not so good with names, according to Rob Cesternino, and so called out completely wrong identities for his tribe mates. Comedy gold! And they barely showed any of it! For missed potential alone, this challenge must go on the bottom list.

And there you have it. What blindfold challenges did I foolishly leave off either list? Let me know, and I’ll see you in the hopefully better next episode!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 3: The Bystander Effect

This episode feels no need for preamble before starting the action, so neither do I! Quite honestly, these lines are only here so that people seeing a preview online don’t get accidentally spoiled on anything. We don’t even get a “Previously On…” segment this time around. We get one clip of things to come with no announcement and no Probst narration. I’m all for keeping things short and sweet, and I’m glad the audience is being trusted to understand what’s happening without being told, but I must admit, I think not recapping the previous episode is a mistake. The “Survivor” fanbase numbers have been holding steady for years, but that’s not because no one ever leaves. Rather, it’s because new fans come in at about the same rate as old fans leave. As such, while we the superfans don’t need a recap, I feel it’s essential for drawing in the superfans of tomorrow. Hell, I only became a fan about 2/3 of the way through “Survivor Guatemala”, and that might not have happened if I didn’t have the recap to catch me up to speed. You’ve got the right idea, “Survivor”. Now just fine-tune it.

Naturally, we start off the episode at Vokai, since we’ve got the fallout from a blindside to deal with. Jason is, naturally, thrilled to not have been targeted, but we don’t dwell on that for long. For once, the reaction is not yelling, screaming, or any sort of indignation, but rather cold silence. In some ways, this is more terrifying than a blowup. Janet tries to start things off, but that doesn’t really go anywhere. Instead, it falls to diplomat Tommy to smooth things over with the burned Jack and Jamal. Tommy starts with Jack, taking him over to the water hole, and explaining that the move was against Molly, not himself or Jamal. True enough, but that still doesn’t change the fact that you didn’t include Jack on the vote, so he still has a reason to be concerned. Only an idiot would think this means everything is cool. Naturally, our next confessional is Jack being stoked about still being in the majority. I was willing to give Jack the benefit of a doubt from my first impression of him, but now it’s seeming like it might be correct.

Tommy guesses that Jamal will not be such an easy sell, and sure enough, the man’s pissed. He can’t keep the bitterness out of his voice, and asks the fair question of why he wasn’t included on the vote. The man has few options, so on the surface agrees to work with the group, but it’s clear to everyone that’s he’s out for himself, which he pretty much confirms in the confessional.

Dawn at Lairo brings us the women fooling about in the water, which is all the cue Karishma needs to talk about her heritage, and how it separates her from others. Specifically, she’s older and more modest, stating that Indians are conservative by nature. Not sure if that’s true or not, but I applaud her for going against her own personal morals to fit in, playing in the water with the other women as carefree as you please. It fits with the Rudy Boesch (“Survivor Borneo”) maxim of the individual needing to conform to fit the group to survive, not the other way around. I still maintain it’s the best summation of “Survivor” to date, and Karishma carries it well. Kudos.

The cavorting of the girls does not go unnoticed, and I don’t mean in the “Survivor The Amazon” fantasy sequence way. The guys, but particularly Tom and Aaron, notice this, and speak with the remaining guys about sticking together, not wanting the women to pick them off one by one. I would applaud their powers of observation, but sadly, I think this is just a case of dumb luck. Whenever there’s more women than men on a tribe, it seems inevitable that the accusation of “Women’s Alliance” will be leveled. The only difference in this case is that it happens to be correct. Sadly, even if I am shooting them on their powers of observation, they still don’t have much hope. Even if 4 was somehow able to be greater than 5, they still wouldn’t have a hope. Vince has not forgotten being targeted by Aaron at the first Tribal Council, and refuses to work with him. Still, at least our victims this season aren’t COMPLETE morons.

We soon see that Jamal is willing to make good on his promise of revenge back at Vokai. We start off simple enough, with another montage of Noura being irritating. This prompts Dan to inform us all that despite voting with her last time, she’s not in favor on the tribe, and touts a plan to pretty much everyone but her to take her out in a unified vote. Not a bad plan, all things considered. Nothing of great value is lost, and it unifies a tribe that needs to be unified. Jamal, however, is not about unity at this point, and so whispers in people’s ears, particularly Janet, about how Dan is taking control and needs to be stopped. My fault with Jamal here is not his plan as such. After all, this sort of talk is what got out Molly last episode. Jamal makes a good argument, but he’s doing it way too early. When you’re on the losing side of a vote, you’re in about the most vulnerable position you can be in in this game. Any name you hear that’s not yours, be grateful, and hang on to it. Don’t make waves. Now, should Jamal just forget about the betrayal, and reunify with Vokai long-run? Of course not! This is the sort of thing one should not forget about. But one should take a note from the playbook of Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”), and WAIT for the proper moment to enact your revenge. Lull your betrayers into a false sense of security, then strike. Otherwise, you run the risk of seeming like an unstable element in a game with far too many unstable elements already.

Sure enough, Janet’s not fully on board with this plan, and brings it to Tommy. He puts the kibosh on it, since he really wants that tribe reunification, where his social bonds are most helpful. As such, Jamal is now a prime target, where he wasn’t before. Way to go, Jamal.

I see it’s time to get our preview scene out of the way at Lairo. We were promised an injury, and sure enough, Karishma manages to cut her hand open while slicing some coconut. She claims she can see the bone, but surely that’s… AAGH! OH MY GOD! WHY DID YOU PUT THAT ON SCREEN?

After establishing that if anything Karishma is UNDERREACTING by calming saying she needs medical and walking away, we see that the focus of this injury is oddly not going to be the injury itself, but rather everyone’s reaction the the injury. Karishma starts to feel light-headed, presumably from shock, and so gets on her knees with her head down, to prevent passing out. A wise maneuver, but one that she does entirely on her won. You see, not one person form the group approximately 15 feet away comes over to help or comfort her. Karishma notices this, and claims that it shows she’s not really a part of the tribe, and that they’re out to get her because of her differences. Now, I applaud Karishma for paying attention to her surroundings, and I admit her conclusion has some logical basis. However, in this case I think that conclusion is wrong nonetheless. You see, I don’t think Karishma is being left out of the group, so much as she is the victim of a little something called the Bystander Effect.

For those of you not versed in Introductory Psychology, the Bystander Effect states that when a large group is asked for help, responsibility to help is diffused throughout the group, thereby decreasing the likelihood of anyone actually helping. Put more simply, if you ask a big group for help, each member of the group thinks “Someone else can do it”, making all of them less likely to actually help. Plus, in a large group, there’s then pressure to not deviate from the norm. If no one else is helping, you don’t want to stand out by helping. As a side note, this means that if you ever need help in a public place, you should call someone by name, or at least make eye contact, and ask a specific person for help. This puts all the pressure on that person, thereby making them more likely to actually help you. We should get back to “Survivor”, though. This, to me, is what’s happening with Karishma. Rather than asking one person for help, she asked the group (and didn’t even rally ask, just expected others to notice her), and didn’t make a big deal about her injury. Thus, everyone could pass off the blame and not rock the boat at the same time. Logical thinking on the part of Karishma, but wrong in this case. Don’t worry, though. Karishma will have legitimate reasons to be worried later in the episode.

After establishing that Karishma has been all bandaged up, a boat arrives at Lairo to take the next person to the Island of the Idols. Our victim this time is Vince, which worries many people. Everyone in general is worried about the possibility of an idol, while Elizabeth in particular is worried about Vince blowing her cover. More on that later. Suddenly, though, a voice from the background, mysterious and strange, comes with a solution. It is Dean!

Yes, Dean Kowalski, the most invisible contestant so far, has come to make his case. Frankly, given the quality of the case he makes, he should have kept his mouth shut. Dean, noting the idol paranoia, suggests splitting the vote in case Vince has an idol. A worthy suggestion, were it not for the fact that everyone BESIDES Vince is here, meaning that, by definition, you are suggesting voting someone off to their face, or at least bringing them close. Dean at least realizes his faux-pas, but the damage is done. Really should have just stopped talking. Karishma gets even more paranoid at this development, though again, I see little evidence that SHE will be the split vote here. It’s coming though.

Over on the Island of the Idols, we at first seem to be answering my prayer of Sandra taking the lead, as she’s the one to great Vince. Sadly, Boston Rob will again take the lead later on, but it’s a slight improvement. Vince, like Kellee before him, cries, and I’m less sympathetic here than I was to Kellee. Maybe Sandra and Boston Rob really are Vince’s heroes, but it isn’t really built up much, so his reaction seems a bit over the top. Kellee, by contrast, had a moment all of us could find emotional, making her crying far more understandable.

To be fair, though, Vince’s crying does mean the lesson for the day ties in better than before. Boston Rob wants Vince to work on controlling his emotions, and while that may not be a fatal flaw in Vince’s game, we have previously established this as something Vince struggles with, so it fits better overall. Vince’s “test” for this is to sneak into the Vokai camp and steal some fire, or other proof that the fire is out. Succeed, and you get an idol good for two votes. Get caught, and lose your next vote. Vince goes for it, which I can’t fault him for too much, since he doesn’t appear to be at risk, and I don’t see Vokai getting overly mad at his sneaking around. That said, I must call out Boston Rob for not giving Vince grief for holding out for a better deal. If this is something that’s supposed to be obvious to do, why does only Elizabeth get chastised for it?

Vince preps for the stealth mission. No, this does not mean Woo from “Survivor Cagayan” comes in to bestow upon Vince his “Ninja Stealth Mode”. Instead, Sandra teaches him her trademark techniques for sneaking around. I like this. It gets Sandra more involved, and is more visual than any lesson we’ve had so far. As Vince leaves on his mission, we get some good banter between Rob and Sandra. Sandra wishes to go with him to help, while Boston Rob jokes that she’d make too much noise with her nonstop talking. Funny, and natural. If we get more of this, I’ll go from being neutral about these two returning to overjoyed at their return.

Vince’s mission into Vokai is fairly uneventful, so I’ll save it a blow-by-blow. It’s really well-edited, though. The music and the shots of Vokai waking up combine to add a lot of tension to the scene. It’s also nice to see Vince improvise when their fire turns out to be out, scooping ashes into his canteen instead. It’s capped off to Vince comparing himself to a super-spy, while showing him fall on his butt. Boston Rob and Sandra deem his efforts worthy of an idol. Good for him, even though he too should have been given grief for not holding out for a better deal.

CHALLENGE TIME! And yes, it has been a while since I’ve used all-caps when announcing a challenge, but then, it’s been a long time since I’ve been this excited about a challenge. I don’t think I’ve seen something this fun or original since the third immunity challenge of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, and that was five years ago! Now, some elements might seem pretty standard. You’ve got a one-on-one swimming race to retrieve a key. Nothing unusual there. Our challenge ends with a puzzle. Again, pretty standard, but they at least combine a couple of puzzle elements, specifically the hanging fish from “Survivor Redemption Island”, and that bonsai-tree puzzle first seen on “Survivor One World”. Getting better, but nothing all-caps worthy. But that middle section! You see, our remaining six players (having used one on swimming and two on the puzzle) need something to do. As such, they all climb up on a see-saw balance beam, and must then maneuver the last player up to both ends of the see-saw to retrieve bags of puzzle pieces. This is an element like nothing we’ve seen before. Closes was the first reward challenge of “Survivor Vanuatu”, and even that was more about the maneuvering than about the balance. You have to take both into consideration here, and it makes for an engaging visual we’ve never seen before on this show. More of this creativity, please!

Even the reused parts of the challenge manage to be exciting, though that’s in part due to the stakes being high. Unlike the previous two episodes, both tribes have had some talk about multiple targets, and thus there’s actual MYSTERY as to who wins. Even the damn swimming challenge is engaging, with Olympic Swimmer Elizabeth going up against lifeguard Janet. Janet is kind of in a win-win situation here. If she loses, no big deal. She was up against an Olympian, and can use that as an excuse. If she wins? She beat an Olympian, and her stock goes up tremendously. She’s sort of in the same position as Nick Maiorano going up against Scot Pollard in basketball on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, with similar results.

Still, despite this early lead, Lairo takes the loss. It seems puzzles are their achilles heal, as Karishma and Vince can’t get it together, letting Jamal and Lauren take the win on this one. NOW Karishma has reason to be worried. She may have exaggerated how outside the group she was earlier, but a challenge loss, particularly when you had a decent lead, is reason enough to vote you off. Sure enough, when discussion comes as to who to split the vote with against Vince, Karishma’s name comes up, due to her poor performance. Of course, Karishma at camp isn’t helping herself, either. Not with the “Everyone hates me” thing so much, but with being too enigmatic in her strategy. Playing cards close to the chest is one thing, but Karishma refuses to name names, simply saying she doesn’t want to go. Again, I get the strategy. It’s basically the “Anybody but me.” strategy. Karishma, unfortunately, does not have the subtlety to pull it off, and suffers for it. Plus, if someone’s begging you for a name, GIVE THEM A NAME! There comes a time of diminishing returns on the enigmaticness.

The women, however, are not content to just have two targets. They’re still the majority, so they can decide who to vote for. They could just stay for Vince, but as noted, he’s nominally on their side, so it may not be the best idea. They cast around for men to vote off, and settle on Tom, for being older and quiet. I can understand the decision, but I’m still shocked that Dean didn’t get targeted for his faux-pas earlier. I know they say they need his strength, but it’s been established at this point that Lairo is not hurting for strength. It’s brains they need, and unless Dean’s going to step up on the puzzles, there’s not much of a need to keep him around.

As we head off to Tribal, let us discuss the pros and cons of our three targets. Overall, Karishma is the worst choice to go, particularly from the women’s perspective. She puts the dominant alliance in jeopardy if she goes, and two poor puzzle performances does not a challenge sink make. There’s an argument to be made that she’s unstable, as we’ll see at Tribal Council later, but I think Karishma has a big difference from other insecure players I’ve advocated getting the boot in the past. Specifically, while she’s insecure, she’s not flipping due to that insecurity, just begging the women to stay together. She may be uncertain, but she’s loyal in her uncertainty, meaning it can go away with more votes going the way she hopes, and making her an asset down the road. Vince, while not the best choice, is still ok. He’s probably the most unified choice, as the only person out of the vote is him, and he’s gone. Still, he does seem loyal to the women, making him an asset. Surprisingly, despite being the last minute target, Tom is actually probably the smart choice. I hate advocating getting rid of the older guy, but I don’t see him bringing much to the tribe, and he’s probably the least loyal to the women’s alliance. True, he does have an “in” with Elaine, but Vince does as well. Sure, it will piss off Aaron and Dean, but they’re probably out next, so who cares. The exception to all this is Elizabeth. As she mentioned earlier, so far the only person on Lairo who can contradict her story about the Island of the Idols is Vince. I wouldn’t suggest she advocate hard for Vince, since that in and of itself would arouse suspicion, but if others are saying it, I might push for it slightly from her point.

With Karishma so on edge, Tribal Council is understandably a fun affair. After Aaron displays some confidence, Karishma again vocalizes her discomfort with her position in the tribe. Tom tries to calm things down by giving his “team” pep talk, and correctly pointing out Lairo’s puzzle weakness, but Karishma will not be stopped. She goes and whispers in the women’s ears, a move that plays better on tv than it does in the game. If anything this hurts Karishma, as now she can be painted as a schemer. Again I understand the paranoia, but this is not the right way to express it.

For once, our mystery is kept all through Tribal, but in the end, the women go for Vince. As I stated previously, not the worst move, but not the best either. I am personally sorry to see Vince go. He wasn’t the best player in the game, and I don’t think he would have won, but the guy did make for a lot of fun moments, and for that, he shall be missed. The only flaw in his exit is Boston Rob and Sandra up in the peanut gallery, reminding us that he got voted out with an idol. You know, in case we forgot from 30 minutes ago.

This episode is probably the best of the season. It keeps the strong characters and intriguing storylines, but adds in better mystery and more humor. If this season keeps up, it definitely stays in the top-tier, and with a blindfold challenge promised for next episode, it seems likely to do so!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 2: Advantage Legacy

While I know that stating an opinion such as this on the “Survivor” internet may not win me many friends, I cannot help but be honest: I am not a fan of Angelina Keeley (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Is she the worst thing to come out of the show?  Not by a long shot!  In a world where we have the likes of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”), Angelina is practically a saint.  But, I feel I must admit that I don’t much understand the appeal that she seems to have.  While she seemed to have good ideas (selling herself to the jury, idoling out a threat, working as a negotiator, etc.), the fact must be stated that she was not very good at executing those ideas.  This in and of itself would not be a big deal, were it not for the fact that Angelina acted like she was all that and a bag of chips, that everything she did was a brilliant move that everyone should respect.  That got real old, real fast, and just rubbed me the wrong way.  It’s not that I mind the way she played the game, it’s that I mind that she did it poorly, yet acted like she didn’t.  

With that said, if there’s one area where I completely agree with Angelina, it is in the disparity in terms of the number of women finding idols.  Partly that’s because the numbers don’t lie, but also because it just seems wrong to me.  Now, this is the first season where players actually had a chance to see Angelina talk about this before filming, yet none invoke her name.  Nevertheless, since Angelina made this point, there’s been a noticeable uptick in the number of women finding idols.  Whether this is directly Angelina’s doing or not, I can’t say, but if it took her mentioning that to get this started, then I’m happy we had a season of Angelina, even with the problems mentioned above.  

Starting off our episode proper, you could be forgiven for missing the fact that the episode had started.  We do get a recap of what happened in the previous episode, but it seems Probst was making himself scarce in more than just the premier.  There’s no narration, no foreshadowing, there’s not even an epic “Previously on… ‘Survivor’!” to kick things off.  Again, I’m overall in favor of this.  It shows humility on Probst’s part, and brings us up to speed on the previous episode without too heavily leaning into what will happen as the season progresses, which would make the whole exercise predictable.  That said, I feel like this goes a bit too far.  Leave out the Probst narration, but keep the “Previously on..” intro.  Adds an air of epicness to the proceedings.  

Speaking of epicness, a blowout of epic proportions seems to be happening at Lairo.  Yes, virtually no one is handling the fallout of that Tribal Council well.  Aaron is, understandably, pissed and untrusting of the rest of his tribe, and isn’t doing a very good job of hiding it.  Elaine seems to be the speaker for the group, explaining why they voted the way they voted.  Normally I’d be in favor of this, as Elaine is generally well-liked, and therefore in the best position to deliver bad news.  However, since she was a target at that Tribal Council, even sugar-coating the move will still seem like rubbing salt in Aaron’s wound.  Not helping matters is Vince, who CONSIDERS doing the smart thing, before throwing that out the window and angrily asking why he received votes.  An understandable reaction, but as I’ve said before, on “Survivor” you need to temper down those feelings for the sake of diplomacy.  

Only Missy really comes out of this situation looking good.  While she privately admits that she’s happy, since the women’s alliance can now control the tribe, she still thinks she can work with Aaron.  She accordingly takes him off into the woods for a one-on-one talk, where she soothes his bruised ego by seeming to demure to him (though my read is that she’s merely pretending to to keep him happy), and talk soothingly about how much he’s needed.  Aaron says he’s on board, but it’s clear his frustration is simmering just underneath the surface.  Sure enough, Aaron admits in confessional that he’s ready to slash and burn everything when he gets the chance.  I see Rory Freeman (“Survivor Vanuatu”) is making a comeback.  

Dawn at Vokai, and we see people FINALLY get the idea to put a freaking roof over their fire to keep it going in rain.  Sure, the roof we see is only a palm frond, but it’s a start, and I’m frankly amazed so few tribes think of this.  The only other one I can come up with off the top of my head is Zhan Hu from “Survivor China”.  Good on you, Vokai.  

Of course, with them only coming up with the roof idea now, this begs the question: how did the fire survive the night?  The answer is Noura, who reports getting up repeatedly to tend to the fire.  Now, Noura is understandably going to be a little cranky about this, and has a right to express that crankiness.  Unfortunately for Noura, crankiness quickly devolves into complaining, loudly and frequently.  We see her going around to pretty much everyone in the tribe, pontificating about how the camp should be run, and about how certain people, particularly Molly, aren’t doing anything to help.  I can’t say I entirely disagree with Noura here.  While Vokai is not even close to a terrible camp, I have a hard time saying that the more serious people when it comes to actual survival are in the wrong.  What I CAN say is that Noura’s delivery is way off.  Even if you’re in the right in your way of doing things, how the camp is run should be a consensus, not one person mandating everything.  Call a big group meeting, express your views, maybe have a spirited yet polite debate.  What you don’t do is complain to people individually.  Most likely, nothing will get done, and people will just see you as annoying.  Worse, as it becomes a pattern, they’ll start to tune you out.  In one shot, you can pretty much see Jamal’s eyes glazing over.  

Needless to say, Noura isn’t getting through to very many people, though she at least realizes it.  Privately, she complains to Jason about their spot in the game.  Together they talk about pulling a “Revenge of the Nerds” style coup against Molly, who they see as the ringleader.  I would complain about neither Noura nor Jason being particularly nerdy, but I’m too busy wondering when Molly became such a threat?  Don’t get me wrong, she was hardly a nobody last episode, and we did see her and Jack bond, but when did she become this Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”) type of threat?  It’s not as out of the blue as some plot points I’ve seen, and I can understand that there’s only so many things you can cram into one episode, even an extra long one, but a little more foreshadowing would have been appreciated.  Still, Noura and Jason don’t really have a way of convincing the others to go against Molly, so for now, it all just remains a pipe dream.  

Smoke is also present at Lairo.  No fire, alas.  Aaron, continuing his newfound downer status, states that they won’t get fire tonight and will remain a wet, cold, hungry, pathetic tribe.  What’s that smell?  Why, it’s the sweet smell of HUBRIS!  And our waitress tonight is none other than Superfan Chelsea, who seems the only person capable of beating Boston Rob in a fire-making race.  As Tom puts it (in a mildly chauvinistic joke), she makes a fire in about two minutes.  Chelsea fangasms about making fire on “Survivor”, which is fair enough.  Why, the only thing that could be better is if she found an idol!  Which she proceeds to do!  Like I said before, I’m happy for her.  She seems nice, I always like to support the superfans, and the more women finding idols, the better I say.  Plus, I like to see people hunting for idols the SMART way, as Chelsea does here: Do your chores, and when you happen across a likely-looking tree, poke around really quick.  Limits the suspicion thrown on you, while still giving you at least a decent chance of finding something.  Way to go, Chelsea!  

Really, my only complaint is that this throws out my idea that all idols this season might be time-limited ones from Island of the Idols.  I’m not as big a detractor on having a ton of idols in the game as some people, but if you’re potentially having someone win one every episode, I think giving them time limits and throwing out regular idols would have been a good balance.  

Heading back to Vokai, a boat arrives. The tribe has some mystery as to what’s going on, but we the audience are of course aware of what this must be: the name drawn for Island of the Idols.  The answer turns out to be Kellee, who goes off with some encouragement from her tribe.  She walks with some trepidation towards the appointed area, calling back to “Survivor” History in wondering whether Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) will be waiting for her.  Give her credit, she had the right idea.  She now gets to meet and greet with Sandra and Boston Rob, which she calls better than Cochran.  Sandra I’ll agree with, but Boston Rob, a better sight than Cochran?  Debatable.  

Now, let’s see how Boston Rob and Sandra analyze Kellee’s game!  Since we’ve seen so little of it, apart from her not liking being touched, this will be a good chance to gain insight into how she’s playing… Oh, wait, apparently we need to hear about Boston Rob and Sandra’s personal lives.  Ok, I guess that’s kind of cool too, but I really wanted to get to know about the new players before hearing about the old.  Naturally, this is telegraphing pretty clearly that Kellee’s game will be a variation on the old “How well do you know each other?” challenge of old, and sure enough that’s what it is.  I’m disappointed, “Survivor”.  Oh, not in you bringing this challenge back.  I understand your need to get rid of it after Vecepia broke it on “Survivor Marquesas”, but it was a fun challenge nonetheless.  No, my problem is that these “lessons” are not being tied into an individual’s game.  I could understand having it be pre-determined for Elizabeth, since her game hadn’t had much of a chance to develop, but I was hoping that, through talking, our veterans could identify a key weakness in a person’s game (which everyone has.  Yes, even your favorite players.) and play a challenge directly to said weakness.  Instead, we get these cookie-cutter lessons that aren’t bad, but feel hollow as a result.  

Kellee faces a similar deliberation to Elizabeth, since the stakes are similar: Win and get an idol good at two Tribal Councils, lose and lose your vote for the next Tribal Council.  Unlike Elizabeth, however, I think Kellee should go for it, for two reasons: Most obviously, there’s the fact that this time she just has to answer four out of five trivia questions correct, meaning she’s not in direct competition with a professional at this, and therefore has a better chance of winning.  A better reason, though, is that Kellee’s had more time with her tribe.  Yes, Elizabeth wasn’t likely to be a target at Lairo, but in those early days, especially being away from the tribe during pre-Tribal discussion, there was still at least a decent chance her name could come up.  Kellee, however, has had that time to bond, and ensure she’s in a solid majority where her vote may not be missed.  There’s still a risk, to be sure, but it’s a much more calculated risk than before.  

Even so, Kellee is unsure, having been so focused on looking for a hidden challenge that she didn’t pay much attention to what was being said.  Does she get pressured to compete like Elizabeth was when she said she was unsure?  Nope, that would have been fair!  Instead, Boston Rob sweetens the pot, and offers her an idol good for three Tribal Councils with only three correct questions.  With the odds actually better, Kellee goes for it, and nails the softball questions.  She cries, then chastises herself for crying, though I don’t really see why.  It’s an emotional moment, crying’s ok.  

To her credit, Kellee does weaponize that crying back at camp.  First of all, like Elizabeth before her, she lies about the nature of Island of the Idols, basically saying it’s like Ghost Island from the titular “Survivor Ghost Island”.  By sheer coincidence, these two have come up with almost exactly the same lie (Kellee had a detail about statues that Elizabeth didn’t).  It’s almost like these people are being coached or something… Anyway, Kellee really doesn’t want people to suspect she has an idol, and so tearfully starts dumping her bag out.  Now, the crying part of this is a risky strategy.  Done with subtlety, it can make people feel for you, and forgo heavy scrutiny out of feeling uncomfortable.  Done over-the-top, it can make people suspicious.  Personally, I thought Kellee was being a bit transparent, but her tribe seems to buy it, so I guess good on her.  Of course, even if they had stripped her, it wouldn’t have mattered, as Kellee cleverly hid the idol in her hair.  I have to admit, that’s a new one.  Good for Kellee.  

As we head to commercial, I have to say that I’m seeing a trend I don’t like on Island of the Idols itself.  Overall, Boston Rob and Sandra still aren’t stealing the spotlight from our players.  Hell, I’m even ok with them at tonight’s Tribal Council, since their comments are limited and don’t take up much time.  But it was made out that these two are equal partners, but so far don’t seem to be.  Apart from Boston Rob’s victory and Sandra’s defeat being emphasized in the season opener, Boston Rob has now taken the lead with the new player both times.  This could change, but it feels like this is really “Island of Boston Rob” with Sandra there as a bit player.  It’s not the end of the world if it is, but it’s a shame.  Sandra is objectively the better player, and I just find her more entertaining.  

Wow, our Immunity Challenge already?  Geez, these episodes are flying by fast.  Our first episode made it pretty clear which tribe was losing the challenge, but this one makes it look subtle in comparison.  Who will win?  Lairo, the tribe with one guy who’s mildly pissed at being left out of the vote, or Vokai, the tribe that’s cracking internally, and has multiple viable targets?  We don’t even have that exciting of a challenge to make up for it.  Swim, get a ladder, untie balls, play “Plinko”, and that’s it.  While holding up the ladder is exciting, that’s about it.  In particular, Plinko as the closer bother me.  I don’t need the closer to be a puzzle every single time, and there’s some nice CBS synergy going on here, but Plinko is just not that exciting, being more luck than skill.  

Jamal, it seems, is incredibly lucky.  Despite Vokai being behind for most of the challenge (due, I say, to the inexplicable decision to NOT have Jason on the water portion of the challenge), he actually makes thing pretty close, but as we all suspected, Lairo wins.  While I like Vokai as a tribe better, it is nice to see variety in who goes to Tribal Council, so I’m happy in that respect.  

With no viable way to target Molly, it’s time for Noura and Jason to start eating each other.  To put it bluntly, Noura does so badly.  She goes for a Sandra strategy of “I’ll vote how you want”, which I’m normally in favor of, but when people are asking you to have an opinion, you need to say SOMETHING!  Either throw Jason under the bus, or push for your Molly preference, but say SOMETHING!  Instead, Jamal tells us that the majority plan to split the votes between Jason and Noura, in case of an idol.  With their numbers, a fair strategy.  They’re relatively safe in doing so, and fear of an idol from Jason is worth taking precautions against.  Who would they go after in a revote?  Either one.  The guys seem to prefer Jason, while Molly is really pushing for Noura, since the latter called her out on not working enough.  Frankly, either one’s a good choice, since both are causing divisions early on in the game.  If I had to pick one to go, I’d say Noura is the smarter choice.  She’s not as good as Jason in challenges, and while an idol is a concern, there’s ways around it, even if it doesn’t get played tonight.  

But we’ve seen this sort of thing before, we need some excitement.  Evidently I was wrong in saying that Noura needed to advocate for Molly’s exit, since others have come to the same conclusion.  The women, spearheaded by Lauren with Janet caught up in it, have noticed how she’s taken the lead position, and are threatened, wanting to turn everyone against the Molly-Jack-Jamal threesome.  But even that would be too straightforward!  After all, people like Tommy and Kellee are in good with that threesome, and while maybe not on the top, have at least some pull, and would be burning bridges early on with a move like this.  The pair agree to move together as we head off to Tribal.  While the aforementioned bridge burning would make this a bad move for both Tommy and Kellee, I have to say that I think voting Molly out at this juncture would be bad for the tribe as a whole.  Yes, a tight threesome is something to watch out for, but even if you vote out Jason and Noura, you’re still up 5-3 on them.  “Shuffling the deck”, as Tommy puts it, this early only fractures your tribe, and makes you easier to pick off.  It could be argued that Lairo did a similar flip last episode, but that was a case of someone rubbing multiple people the wrong way, and a secret sub-alliance.  This is just the majority starting to cannibalize early, and I think it’s a problem for Vokai’s long-term prospects.  

Jumping ahead a bit, tonight’s Tribal Council does not have the awesome music from last episode, but is still quite good.  Jason gets things going right out of the gate by offering a strip-search (what is it with this tribe and strip searches?), and Noura quickly chimes in about how they’re on the bottom.  Boston Rob and Sandra wisely have less to say this time, so we’re left with the wit of the tribe.  Jamal, in a comparison to racing, calls the game in “first gear”.  Jason protests, and Jamal retorts that Jason is playing from the bottom, and therefore in a different gear.  Now, this is the sort of remark that, in the wrong hands, could really hurt someone’s standing in the game.  However, for whatever reason, it comes across lighthearted and joking when Jamal says it.  He’s got that inexplicable charm that can get someone out of a lot of tough situations.  Even though Jamal’s on the bottom, I can’t help but root for him a little.  

Make no mistake, Jamal’s on the bottom.  There was some good mystery going into the vote, but all the comments at tonight’s Tribal Council point to Molly going home.  She does, and as I say, I think this was the wrong decision.  It fractures a tribe when it wasn’t needed over only a partially-established threat.  I am sorry to see Molly go.  I think her prowess was overstated, but she had good potential, and I saw very few flaws in her game so far, apart from being too obvious to the other players.  Plus, with how badly Noura and Jason were floundering socially, I wanted to see that rewarded.  

It’s amazing how much leeway episodes that aren’t the premiere get.  Objectively, this episode either had the same problems (lame immunity challenge, Boston Rob stealing the spotlight), or more problems (a more obvious loser of the challenge, less time spent with the camps pre-challenge), yet I like this one just as much as the first episode.  It was fun to see Vokai develop, and for all the minor problems this season has so far, the overall product still holds up pretty well.  Again, it helps a lot that this is a cast that both knows how to play and is likable.  When that happens, we can put up with a lot.  Still, Sandra better start stepping up more, or we’re going to have issues.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 1: Charmin Ultra

Come on in, guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! Though, really, I can’t claim it’s only my opinion anymore. As you can probably tell from the title, this blog now has corporate sponsorship, so I’m beholden to the whims of my corporate overlords. Don’t worry, though, I’m taking it in stride. First off, I’m only taking sponsor who also sponsor “Survivor” to stay on brand. Second, I’m throwing myself whole-hog into this thing. I’ve converted the bathroom in my house into the “Casa de Charmin”, and, in keeping with the theme of this season, I’ve even invited back two previous players to advise on the blog. So, as I uncork this bottle of delicious pineapple sake, give a warm welcome to… What the?! WHO DRANK ALL MY SAKE WITHOUT ME? BOBDAWG! Oh, you are SO NOT a gentleman.

In all seriousness, you might be wondering why I titled my blog after a brand of toilet paper. Well, for those who don’t waste their brainspace on commercial slogans may remember that the “Charmin Ultra” brand of toilet paper used to have the tagline “Less is more”, which I think is a fitting title for this episode? How you may ask? Well, we start to see that right at the beginning of the episode, where we’re greeted, not by our usual vehicle extravaganza over epic Probst narration, but by Rob and Sandra walking up the beach, and giving us a narration instead. What spore of madness is this? Truth be told, though, I think this opening is a feather in Probst’s cap overall. Look, I will give the guy a lot of flak, especially for a lot of his decisions as executive producer on the show, but it must equally be said that he is the perfect host for the show, and no one can do what he does. Probst deserves every bit of praise and every bit of ego he develops for his hosting prowess. So, for him to put that aside and minimize his involvement in the opening? That, I think, speaks volumes about his overall character. I may not like how he refuses to let go of bad ideas, but give the man credit where it’s due: He is willing to take the spotlight off himself for a bit.

Having delved too deep into uncharted waters, the show makes up for it with shots of a helicopter and boats. Some traditions die hard, I guess. At least we don’t have to sit through another supply looting for the umpteenth time. Honestly, though, the only thing that I can complain about with this opening is how much it shows Probst’s favoritism for Boston Rob. When he talks about how Boston Rob and Sandra have won and lost, it shows Boston Rob’s one win out of four, and Sandra’s one loss out of three, despite Sandra having objectively a better track record than Rob. Cheap, Probst. Don’t do the queen like that.

Our new players are, of course, weirded out by the lack of Probst, but are still overall more excited about the game than anything. Karishma in particular talks about the need to contain her excitement when she hits the beach. Then, naturally, the very next shot is of her squeeing in delight and hugging everyone. I can’t give her too much flak since other people are doing it too, but a funny little moment, nonetheless.

In case anyone doubted Chelsea’s credentials as a superfan, she proves them wrong by voicing the complaints of fans everywhere: Too many twists. You see, Chelsea notices that this season is called “Island of the Idols”. Naturally, she comes to the conclusion that there will be idols everywhere, and talks about how “Survivor” is twist heavy as it is. Yep, there go her “fan favorite” numbers rising astronomically. Thankfully, Chelsea proves herself to be smarter than a lot of the superfine of late, and spends her time helping to build shelter and bond with her tribe, rather than look for an idol.

In fact, bonding is most of what’s going on with Lairo. Tom talking about his history in hockey. Karishma and Vince bonding over their status as people of color representing a new group on “Survivor” (Indian and Hmong, respectively). Hell, we even get a really touching scene where Missy talks about the horrors of having a severe brain tumor, and her struggle to overcome it. My God, I didn’t know this is what was missing, but apparently it is! We’re actually taking our time to bond with these players as individuals, rather than as strategists! Careful, CBS, or we just might get to caring about this cast!

Of course, this being “Survivor”, such love cannot last forever. Inevitably some people must be singled out, if only so that everyone else can avoid the stigma of being the “first boot”. Warning signs come up when Tom, Elaine, and Vince go off and have a chat about how bonded they are, agreeing to stick together and keep an ear out for each other. Not a bad deal for any of them (I always say that early on, a “keep an ear out” deal is best, as it builds a bond, but not so strong that there would be too many hurt feelings at a betrayal), but it seems that even if character is better this season, counting ability still eludes them. Tom, Elaine, and Vince only make three, and on a seven-person tribe, that’s not exactly good odds. Sure enough, the other seven notice, and agree to stick together. You can’t fault the seven for this, and they’re not even mean, like calling Elaine “weird” or anything like that. Those three just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and now they’re on the outs. It’s sad, but that’s the way of “Survivor”. What will be fascinating is to see how these three can wiggle out of trouble, if at all.

Checking in with Vokai, our purple tribe, we see that they’re in a bit of a similar mind to Lairo, trying to work together initially, rather than look out for themselves. We sadly don’t see as much personal stuff from them, mostly just introductions led by Lauren, then down to the shelter building. Really, the only one to get any sort of character so far is Janet. Determined not to be the “mom” stereotype, she sets out to prover herself and her worth by making fire. Not one to do things by half-measures, she even plans to do it with the “rub sticks together” method, notoriously the hardest way to make fire on “Survivor”. And damn if she doesn’t succeed! Even leaving gender out of it, this is an impressive feat. Making fire using your glasses is one thing, but this method is hard to do even for experienced outdoors people. This proves both that Janet knows what she’s doing and is not here to mess around. That said, while it’s definitely an impressive feat, and earns her a lot of respect in my book, I’m not sure how good it does at proving her worth or avoiding the “Mom” stereotype Janet’s trying to play against. We hear Tommy refer to her as “Mom” in spite of this, and frankly, I’m not sure fire-making ability spares you much beyond the first three days. Don’t get me wrong, having fire is better than not having fire, but once you get the flint, it becomes a lot easier to do, and the ability to make fire from sticks obsolete (barring, of course, that you’re the Hunahpu tribe from “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, but Vokai seems more competent than that). Janet’s definitely sticking around past the first vote, but beyond that, I think she’s still got her work cut out for her.

Man, these tribes are just too nice! They gel with each other a little too well! If only we had a cliche reason to drive a wedge between the people of Vokai! Enter Jason. Man, it must just be the fate of everyone first named Jason on “Survivor” to be an idiot (no, Kyle Jason from “Survivor Kaoh Rong” doesn’t count. Jason is his last name). On a tribe where everyone is happy and getting along, dude just can’t resist going idol hunting. Sure enough, people take notice, and now, guess who’s on the chopping block? Yep, you can be a young, strong guy, but if you separate yourself from the group so blatantly so early, you can’t expect a long shelf life in the game.

Back on Lairo, we get to see that tripe dynamics are a bit more complicated than your basic 7-3 split. Missy is all about that girl power, particularly as women are on a bit of a streak of being first boots (technically the most recent male first boot would be Pat Cusack on “Survivor David vs. Goliath”, but he wasn’t “voted off”. Going by that definition, the last man to be first boot would be Darnell Hamilton on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, a good three years ago), and so bonds the women together. In particular, she lets Elaine know that her name’s been brought up, along with Vince and Tom. Elaine is concerned, particularly since she’s an older woman, a demographic that is historically an easy early target.

Elaine decides to turn her fortunes around the old-fashioned way: social charm. Elaine, it cannot be understated, is damn funny. I’m not even there, and I crack up whenever she’s on screen. Her tribe does so as well, and it’s not only good gameplay, but helps with that bonding I was talking about earlier that so many recent casts seem to have lacked.

Such bonding does not go unnoticed. Ronnie is the one to bring it up to the viewer, and since he’s a professional poker player, he naturally must tie this in to being a professional poker player. Ok, I think lawyers are probably the profession that least tie in to “Survivor” that claim to be good training for the show, but if I’m giving an award to most insufferable occupation on “Survivor”, I think the pro poker players have taken it. Jean Robert (“Survivor China”). Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”). Ok, Anna Khait (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”) wasn’t too bad on the show, but seeing her after the show has kind of soured me on her. And now Ronnie. Every single one of them, just insufferable, and won’t stop talking about how “prepared” they are for the game, when they actually suck worse than Chet Welch in that challenge where he was tied to Joel in “Survivor Micronesia” (again, with Anna being a possible exception, and even she’s kind of borderline). I’m legitimately curious, can someone find me an example of someone who’s occupation was “Professional poker player” on the show who wasn’t insufferable? Bear in mind, it has to be someone who had that LISTED as their occupation. Someone like Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) who played professionally but never had it in their chyron doesn’t count.

Getting back to the actual gameplay, Ronnie notices that Elaine is making everyone feel nice, and getting in their good graces. Ronnie doesn’t want this. You see, Ronnie has figured that Elaine is tough to beat at the Final Tribal Council, and so wants to make sure she’s gone. All that I can follow and agree with. Ronnie’s issue is that he’s not NEARLY as subtle as he thinks he is. He offers to Elaine that he’ll keep her safe, merely so that she’ll be lulled into a false sense of security for a blindside. Elaine, of course, sees right through it, especially since Missy had mentioned it before. Now, Ronnie is her number one target, though even with the women’s alliance, I still have a tough time seeing how Elaine gets the numbers for this.

Moving back to Vokai, we get some insight into the individual strategies of our players. Jack, being the youngest, is playing up his fun-loving side, bonding with Molly in particular via the unorthodox method of using a giant clam as a squirt gun. Still, with a tribe overall as warm as this, the strategy seems to be working. Tommy has a similar plan, being everyone’s friend. Again, with a tribe as warm as this, it seems to be working. After all, everyone loves their 4th grade teacher, even me. So, it makes a good conversation opener, and connects quickly with all the other players. Naturally, our two most social players are drawn together, and Tommy and Jack quickly form an alliance. Of course, two out of ten is not enough for a majority, but thankfully for a teach, Tommy is not bad at math. He and Jack quickly gather together a majority of six, now including Dan, Molly, Lauren, and Janet, with talk of adding in Jamal as a seventh. Their target? Naturally, it’s the guy who’s been out hunting for idols instead of bonding with the rest of the group, Jason. Dan even comments that it seems like everyone wants Jason out.

This, in turn, is the cue for someone to make a dumb move, and rock the boat this early. Noura, it seems, can’t stand a smooth ride, and so warns Jason about his name being thrown around. Ever the brain trust, Jason is shocked that people could consider booting him this early. Dumb to be sure, but really, my ire here is for Noura. Look, I get what she’s trying to do: Save the potential early boot, and gain a loyal ally in the process. But here’s the thing: It’s too early. At this point in the game, the smallest difference, the tiniest quarrel is enough to get you booted. You’ve already got an obvious boot coming up. Don’t rock the boat if it isn’t your name out there. Now, some might argue that there’s a precent for this being a good move. After all, in the short term it worked out pretty well for Brian Corridan on “Survivor Guatemala” with Lydia. The difference here, though, is that that was a close-run thing between Lydia and Morgan. Neither one of them was a clear choice over the other, so Brian wasn’t putting himself in the minority by advocating one over the other. Instead, I think the better lesson here should be taken from “Survivor Gabon”, and the case of Ken Hoang. People tend to forget that Ken’s initial partner was not Crystal Cox, but rather Michelle Chase. They tend to forget about it because Michelle was the first boot, but yes, Ken was infatuated with her, and wanted to work with her. But, when he saw the way the wind was blowing, he was willing to cut her loose. My point here is that, in the early days of the game, you can recover from not getting your ideal outcome. Better to go with the flow, and save your social capital for later.

But now we’ve had two scenes of Vokai with only one target! Surely someone else is rubbing people the wrong way? For once, I mean that literally. Dan, as it turns out, is a bit of a touchy-feely guy. This is always a hard thing for men to pull off without seeming like a creep, and given Dan’s age, he just can’t do it. Kellee in particular is upset about this, pointing out that she just doesn’t like being touched, finding other people’s germs “gross”. Fair enough, and I can definitely understand the “using legs as pillow” thing to be weird, though I think the massage part might be a slight overreaction. Still, Kellee is entitled to her feelings on the matter, and entitled to express those feelings. She expresses them to Molly, who has similar feelings. The pair express them to Janet, and then express them to… Dan, where they have a mature conversation about their differences, and while they go away wary of each other, tensions seem to have cooled for now.

What, you thought just because there was tension that there’s going to be drama? Adults talking and acting like adults is a rare thing that I personally love to see. Are you not entertained?

Up until this point, this episode had been well above average. We’re connecting with the cast, getting some new situations for the show, and while I do miss Probst, his relative absence so far does make things memorable. Sadly, it’s at the immunity challenge where things begin to go downhill. Probst’s banter with the tribes before the challenge is nice, but the challenge itself is really lackluster for the first immunity challenge. True, the tribes do stick together for the majority of it, which I like, but really, it’s just a generic obstacle course with nothing original to make it memorable. I wouldn’t complain too much, since it’s a solid challenge overall, but this is the FIRST CHALLENGE OF THE SEASON! It should be memorable! Epic! A real “Welcome to the Game”. This challenge seems to say “Yeah, welcome to the show, I guess…”

But the real kicker here is the reveal of the immunity idol for the season. Hoo boy, the art department’s really working for their pay this season, aren’t they? “Hey boss, we gotta make an immunity idol, what should we do?” “Eh, just glue some Easter Island heads to a bunch of bamboo, no one will care!”

Really, though, all this could be forgiven if we had any sort of tension in the challenge, but the fact is we don’t. There is a bit of back and forth between the tribes, but the fact is that Lairo just seems far more likely to lose than Vokai, based on what we’ve seen of them. Both tribes have a token effort at presenting multiple targets, but given how the Kellee/Dan disagreement kind of dissolved, Jason really seems like the only viable option for Vokai. Lairo, by contrast, has viable narratives for either Elaine or Ronnie going home, and even Vince and Tom have something of a chance. Thus, it’s no surprise when they fall behind on the puzzle.

As a final negative note, I have to say that I found Probst’s narration particularly over-the-top this time. I’m normally a fan of it, but he just seemed to be trying WAY too hard to get us to believe there was tension here, and exaggerated the states of the tribes to a large degree. No, Probst, this loss was not a “blowout”. It wasn’t neck and neck, but this was nowhere near, say, Fang’s performance in the first challenge of “Survivor Gabon”.

Vokai goes home with immunity and flint, but Lairo does not get to leave empty handed. It seems that someone must go to the “Island of the Idols”. Fair enough, but it feels like the producers do everything possible to suck all the tension out of this. There’s not dealing with tribe dynamics as to voting who should go, there’s not even the possibility of someone missing the first Tribal Council and upending an alliance to keep us intrigued. Now, if we the audience had no idea what the “Island of the Idols” was, this alone would be enough to keep our interest. But the trouble is we do know. You told us what it was in the damn season preview. If you want us to be interested, you need something more.

Elizabeth is selected to go by random draw, and she’s not a bad first choice. She’s a big enough fan to get a good reaction, and gives us some good awe at seeing the place for the first time. Though, again, I think it goes on a bit too long. We get a solid 30 seconds of Elizabeth being in shock, when 10 at the most would have been sufficient.

But, of course, this brings us to Boston Rob and Sandra. According to all the previews, they’re the main draw of the season. And, for all my complaints, they’re pretty good here. True, they are taking time away from the new players, and I question how much they’ll take up of a regular length-episode, but the fact that we haven’t seen them until now is encouraging. I also like the detail of how they’re wearing the buffs from the season they won. Nice touch. They recite a pledge basically to make sure no one has a heart attack at the thought of playing against them, and we get down to business.

What with how early it is in the game, and how little Elizabeth wants to give away tribe dynamics, there’s not much to be taught but fire making. Cool, you mean someone else is going to learn the trick to the “rub two sticks together” method? No, no, he just means flint. Look, the “rub two sticks together” method, I get why people don’t practice. You don’t have the same materials as on the island, and it’s tricky to learn even under ideal circumstances. But you’re telling me people STILL go to the island not knowing how to make fire with flint? Apparently so, as Elizabeth gets a crash course from Rob, who makes it in about 2 seconds, and gets some practice with Sandra. Then, of course, we have to have our “challenge”. Rob tells Elizabeth that if she can beat him in a fire-making race, she’ll earn an idol good for two Tribal Councils. If she loses, however, she loses her vote for this Tribal Council. The show leaves a cliffhanger here, and so will I. I’ll discuss my thoughts on what Elizabeth should do, and how it plays out, when we come back to her.

For now, we check in with Lairo, and it’s really not looking good for Elaine. Ronnie is still on the warpath against her, with Aaron backing him up. Elaine is well-liked, but she’s not a major challenge asset, and given how early it is, people may not want to rock the boat for her. Elaine, being a bit direct, confronts the problem (Ronnie) head-on, talking about how she’ll vote for anyone, channeling Sandra (ironic given that she’s wearing a Red Sox hat), and how there’s no threat to her now. She claims that people can vote her out whenever. Not a bad argument. The flaw in that argument, however, is the precedent that is Sandra. We’ve SEEN that if you “put a pin in someone” they ride that pin to the end. That, Elaine, is why you are dangerous. Elaine puts to the women her idea of going against Ronnie, but the women are hesitant, again not wanting to rock the boat this early in the game.

Concluding Elizabeth’s story, she decides to go for the challenge against Boston Rob, citing her competitive spirit. Understandable, but clearly the wrong decision. You really want to get in a fire-making race against a guy who’s played the game four times, and pretty much made fire by glaring at a bundle of twigs? Naturally, this goes about as well as you’d expect, and Elizabeth loses horribly. She is rightly chastised for this, though I think Boston Rob and Sandra go too far. They’re right to point out that Elizabeth had basically no shot at winning this, and should have thought about it more, but I don’t think you can fault her for not holding out for a better deal that she couldn’t have known about, and you two did, you know, EGG HER ON, pointing out how little her vote matters out of ten, and encouraging her to take risks. Yeah, it was still a dumb move, but don’t go mocking someone for using drugs you yourself dealt them. Somewhat alleviating the “random draw” aspect is that Elizabeth picks a random name (which we don’t see) from Vokai to go to Island of the Idols next, and while I still hate it just being random, I do like that it prevents one tribe from steamrolling the other, and thereby monopolizing the island. Elizabeth leaves to make up for lost time, and for all my snark, I do like this use of Boston Rob and Sandra. They add a bit of color and some interesting dynamics in terms of earning idols. Sure would be a shame if the pair came back and ruined what should be a moment purely for this cast!

Back at camp, Elizabeth needs to get her lying chops on, something she admits she’s not too comfortable with, but does so anyway. She does a good job for what she does, though I think some of it was unnecessary. I wouldn’t mention the competition with Boston Rob, since that will only make people suspicious you have an advantage, and I DEFINITELY wouldn’t mention losing your vote, since that will only make people disinclined to talk strategy to you, but the lie about the three urns? That just seems unnecessary, and likely to backfire. Elizabeth will most likely end up on a tribe with someone else who went to the island at some point, who will then know that she lied. Not a good look for her. I don’t get why she didn’t just say that she went, saw Boston Rob and Sandra, and they chatted about the game. Telling the technical truth, and harder to be found out about. If someone who goes later asks about your challenge, say you weren’t offered one, because it was so early. Certainly don’t tell the whole truth, but I suspect Elizabeth’s lie will come back to bite her down the line.

That said, her contributions to the discussion, though good, don’t matter much, and we head off to Generic Tribal Council Design #5: Huts on Stilts! Yeah, the stay in Fiji is REALLY starting to show from a creative perspective. There’s just only so many facets to a culture you can center your season around that they become so generic as to be pointless. To give the art department their due, both the pen and the snuffer this season are pretty cool, but I still give the look of this season overall a “thumbs-down.”

As our new players begin lighting their torches, we the audience are shown that Boston Rob and Sandra are climbing up to their own private viewing box to watch the proceedings. There’s two reasons I don’t like this: One from a strategic perspective, and one from a viewing perspective. Strategy-wise, I don’t like that Boston Rob and Sandra have so much information about the going-on of the tribes. One of the things I found most intriguing about the premise of this season was the dilemma each new contestant who meets Rob and Sandra has. You can tell them in detail about your plans and alliances, thereby getting great advice, but also risk that information being spilled to future players who come to the island. Conversely, you could keep that information to yourself, but then the time on the island is largely a waste. It’s an intriguing dilemma that could bring out new facets to the game. By bringing in Rob and Sandra to Tribal Council, you take away that option, and just make them another gimmick. Which is what they are, by and large, but you don’t have to emphasize it. As for the audience perspective, while I’m fine with having Rob and Sandra on the season as a draw, the emphasis should be on the cast (especially since we seem to have a particularly good cast this time around), not on the returnees. Tribal Council in particular is a time to focus on the tribe. This is where our new contestants should really be able to shine. By bringing in Rob and Sandra, you steal away that focus, and thus make it harder to connect with the cast. If this cast had the strength of, say, the cast of “Survivor Edge of Extinction”, I’m not sure the season could survive.

Naturally, most of the talk centers around Elaine being on the outs. As you might expect, Elaine does not go quietly. She brings up her “pin” argument again, but also pulls at the heartstrings, bringing up how emotionless this all seems. The cast, as a whole, is moved. Even Ronnie and Aaron admit that it’s hard to vote someone out when they pull at your heartstrings like that. This, at the core, is what’s great about “Survivor”: The conflict between heart and head. Between logic and feeling. It is this conflict that has kept the show interesting for so long, and has kept psychologists and sociologists talking for decades. There are no easy answers. What do our veterans have to say about this?

Boston Rob: Sandra, would you have any trouble voting her off.

Sandra: Hell no.

Such paragons of virtue, our returnees.

As we head to the vote, I’m doubting that Elaine’s plea will help. There’s good arguments to be made for either Ronnie or Vince going home, but Elaine’s sheer amount of screentime, and how much we’ve gotten to know her, spell her doom. Makes for a predictable Tribal Council, but you know what, I don’t care! They brought back that awesome Tribal Council music track they for some reason only used on “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”, and I am thrilled. True, they added new lyrics to it, but who cares? The music’s still awesome!

In case you’re wondering, show, THIS is how you do a vote that blindsides the audience but still feels satisfying. Yes, Elaine was the clear favorite to leave, but we understand clearly how and why things went for Ronnie. Well, maybe not the “how”, as there’s no clear alliance of 8 against Ronnie and Aaron, but my guess is that Ronnie and Aaron weren’t going to be swayed off of Elaine (despite ultimately voting for Vince), so the women decided the only way to save her was to go for Elaine’s preferred target with Tom and Vince, and then Dean went along because he didn’t want to be left out. There’s excitement, there’s mystery, but it doesn’t come out of left field like some OTHER recent blindside votes I could mention.

As you might suspect from my earlier rant, I’m not particularly sorry to see Ronnie go. He somewhat annoyed me, and Elaine really entertained me, so I’m cool with this outcome. Whether or not it was smart is tough to say. Ronnie was better in challenges, but social cohesion is important to. I guess the best that I can say is that this may not have been the IDEAL move for the tribe, but it’s not a bad move in and of itself. If nothing else, it re-emphasizes the lesson that social cohesion is the most important factor on “Survivor”.

All in all this was a great episode, but it actually did better when it gave us less. Less Probst in the opening. Less domination of the actual “Island of the Idols”. Less time devoted to strategy in exchange for connecting with the cast. All great decisions that elevate this premiere to “above average”. It was only when the show gave us too much of something, like Probst narration or Rob and Sandra, that things went downhill. Still, even that doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a great cast that has fascinating stories on both sides, and a great hook for future episodes. If they learn their lessons from this episode, I foresee great things for this season.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Cast Assessment

Come on in guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! In my opinion, this blog had a pretty fun off-season. Got to try out a new format that was well-received. But now, the cast has been announced on a Monday for some reason, so it’s time to dive into the VERY limited pool of information we have for these new players. I know I say that every season, but even this feels like a downgrade. Pretty much all we have to go on from official sources is the “EW” photo gallery with a few snippits of information, plus bios and a two minute video, which is mostly Jeff Probst talking, from CBS. Weak, guys! Weak! I can barely fall back on my little “pet peeves predict how you’ll do on the show” theory. Suffice to say, this blog, never the most accurate at predicting how players will do, is probably going to go down another notch on the accuracy meter. So, which first boot will I foolishly call as the winner today? Let’s find out, as we dive into the cast!

As a side note, for the sake of simplicity, I’m going in the order of the photo gallery on “EW”, since I need that as a reminder of my thoughts on a given player.

Kellee Kim (29, MBA Student, Philadelphia, PA, Vokai Tribe): Hoo boy, right off the bat, and we’ve got some explaining to do. My longtime readers will remember that I once proclaimed that “Survivor” had yet to have a person named “Kelly” who wasn’t “As bland as beige wallpaper.” That still holds true, but thankfully for Kellee, she falls into what I call the “Wentworth Loophole”, named for Kelley Wentworth of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”. Basically, your name can be “Kelly” and you can still be memorable, as long as your name is spelled in an unusual way. Sure enough, Kellee continues this trend, starting off on my good side by listing “Settlers of Catan” as her hobby, but specifically mentioning the “Cities and Knights” expansion, aka the best expansion there is. Hatred of mayo is a second check mark for her in my book. I must admit, this Kellee intrigues me. She seems fairly fit (being on the varsity soccer team at Harvard is no small feat), and decently likable, with very little to go against her. Overall, someone who, on paper, should do well on the show. So, she’s my winner pick, right? Well… I’m sorry, but no. Kellee’s a dark horse for me. She definitely has a shot at winning. However, there’s two things about her that make me pause. One is that her pet peeves center around sleep, and anyone who’s pet peeve is likely to come up on “Survivor” loses points with me. The other is that, well, while a “Kelly” or variation can be memorable, however you spell it, they don’t win. In other words precedent works against her. I give Kellee good odds to make the mid-to-late merge area, but she’d need to be amazing to pull out a win. Not out of the question, but not what I see happening.

Ronnie Bardah (35, Pro Poker Player, Boston, MA, Lairo Tribe): Well, we go from one of the people I have the most to say about to one of the people I have the least to say about. Getting a bit ahead of myself, this cast overall does a good job of being distinctive early on, but Ronnie is sadly the exception that proves the rule. There’s nothing particularly wrong with him. He’s just your generic, strong guy who think’s he’s more charming than he actually is. The only thing memorable about him is how much he talks about his profession and unfortunately, I count that as a mark against him. Pro Poker Player is one of two professions (I’ll discuss the other later) that people claim prepares them for “Survivor”, but in my opinion really doesn’t. There’s an element of bluffing in poker, but there’s a higher ratio of luck than there is in “Survivor”, plus sitting in an air-conditioned casino just doesn’t compare to surviving in Fiji. Still, he’s at least strong, and as long as he doesn’t pull a Garrett Adelstein (“Survivor Cagayan”) he should be around for a bit. I peg Ronnie as the merge boot this season. Unassuming, but think’s he’s better than he is, and out as soon as physicality becomes a threat.

Chelsea Walker (26, Digital Content Creator, Los Angeles, CA, Lairo Tribe): You have to admire someone with that stick-to-it-iveness. While I personally have stopped applying to the show (the game is moving in a direction that no longer holds my interest in playing), as a long-term applicant, I can’t help but root for someone whose perseverance in this area was eventually rewarded. Beyond this, Chelsea’s biggest strength seems to be avoiding the usual pitfalls of contestants. Her pet peeve mentions a type of shoe, so as long as that’s on there she’s set. She doesn’t seem like she’ll be overly confrontational. She doesn’t seem like she’ll make any openly moronic moves. Really, my only concern with Chelsea is that her repeated applications mark her as a superfan, and as we’ve seen in seasons past, they can be overly concerned with making moves, rather than SMART moves. I see Chelsea going out in a blaze of glory, but it will be a LATE blaze of glory. Somewhere in the mid-merge area, I’d say.

Dean Kowalski (28, Tech Sales, New York City, Lairo Tribe): Oh, Dean. Dean, Dean, Dean. These are the hardest bios to write. I like you, man. I really like you. It’s just that I don’t think the rest of the cast is going to like you. In case his occupation didn’t make it obvious, Dean is a nerd. The man lists his proudest accomplishment as relating to teaching Algebra, and also mentions liking astronomy and physics. As the son of an astrophysicist, I can’t help but approve. I like the kid, but do I think he’s winning “Survivor”? Absolutely not! This cast has a lot of tough, athletic types, and I don’t see Dean fitting in well with that. The trouble, oddly, is that he’s a more realistic, well-rounded nerd than we usually get on the show. Compare him with someone like Christian Hubicki from “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. Christian, for how much we love him as well, was a more over-the-top stereotypical nerd. Gabbling on about algorithms and matrices, jabbering about all of this at top speed. Is it a more stereotypical character? Yes, but that’s kind of what the non-nerd public has come to expect. Shows like “The Big Bang Theory” have popularized this type of characterization and made it endearing. A well-rounded nerd, like Dean, while less drama-filled, also just comes off as kind of different from others, rather than endearingly different. I don’t think Dean will actively distance himself from others, but with how different his attitude and worldview are from the rest of the cast, it’ll just kind of happen. They won’t have enough in common to relate, and so he’ll be left out of major alliances. As such, he’s our first boot to go pre-merge, though he won’t be the first out. Someone would have to be actively annoying and/or a detriment for that to happen.

Noura Salman (36, Entrepreneur, North Potomac, MD, Vokai Tribe): For reference, on these, I read the CBS cast bio last, but start forming opinions immediately. Initially, I was at least indifferent to Noura. True, she seemed like a bit of the take-charge type, which can be detrimental early game, but not so much as to really torpedo her chances. Then I got to her CBS bio, and saw her pet peeves. “People lacking personal hygiene and table manners” and “People who are selfish, self-absorbed, and stingy”. Because clearly, people living on an island with now shower or toiletries, whose only goal is to backstab each other for ever-increasing amounts of money will NOT hit any of those personal pet peeves at all! Yeah, I was going to give Noura the benefit of a doubt, but this just goes too far. If I’m already thinking you’re someone who might go too hard on being the leader, AND your pet peeves are antithetical to the game of “Survivor”? Yeah, there’s no way Noura lasts long. Her one saving grace is that I think she’s on the tribe that will have better challenge results early on (and not just because they’re purple), so she probably lasts a few boots, but come the swap, I say she’s toast. I will, however, give her props for comparing herself to a former contestant of the opposite gender. That takes guts, and I’d like to see more of that.

Vince Moua (27, Admissions Counselor, Palo Alto, CA, Lairo Tribe): Contrary to our previous entry, my estimate of Vince’s chances have gone up the more I read his bio. I don’t usually put much stock in the “Which previous contestant are you most like?” category, beyond as a rough metric of how much of the show one has watch, but I put my foot down when the first word out of his mouth was “Vince”. For some reason, I believed this meant he was comparing himself to Vince Sly (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And look, Vince is entertaining, but he’s NOT the guy you want to emulate. Then it occurred to me that he was probably doing a variation on the “I’m an original” line. Still annoying, but not game-torpedoing. Still, this Vince is a little quirky, but it’s the kind of fun quirky I can get behind. Being declared the next shaman in the family has got to make for some fun campfire stories. While I do think Vince is probably overall too nice to win the game, and his pet peeves are a mixed bag (armrests good, racism and promise-breaking bad), I also think he knows enough to keep his head down and just be charming. Probably an early merge boot.

Lauren Beck (28, Nanny, Glendale, CA, Vokai Tribe): Ok, I know that the show moved away from casting hard-core survivalists years ago, but there are limits, people! I had a bad feeling about Lauren’s chances when I fist got a glimpse of her photo, and almost nothing I read did anything to change that. True, her pet peeves are inoffensive enough, but she just screams “worldly” to me. Her every interest, from Cheetos to tru crime shows does not seem like the type of person who will do well in the wild, let alone on “Survivor”. Basically, Lauren is either going to shut down due to the elements, or complain so much that everyone wants to get rid of her. Not that it matters at all, but she screams “recruit” to me, on a season where very few players do. Hence, while she may be a perfectly nice person in real life, on the show, her chances are slim. Not the first boot, again due to lucky tribe placement, but definitely an early merge boot.

Tommy Sheehan (26, 4th Grade Teacher, Long Beach, NY, Vokai Tribe): After all that negativity, I need a good bio to get me out of this funk. And who better to do so that my personal favorite of the season, Tommy. Coincidentally, Tommy is also my male pick to win the whole season. This all might seem weird, because if you look at Tommy’s bios, there’s not much to them. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not giving one-word answers, but he’s not giving away a whole lot either. And that, I think, is what will make him the winner. He knows not to give everything away in one fell swoop, despite the obvious temptation to do so. This speaks well of his chances, and it’s what makes him so intriguing to me. Plus, while his answers are short, they’re generally good, and belie an intimate knowledge of “Survivor”. Take, for instance, his liking of asking his Magic-8 Ball about the future. Could this be a Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”) reference? Possibly, but if you want more explicit knowledge of “Survivor” arcana, look at the players he compares himself to. True, he mentions David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) who’s fairly well-known, but his other two mentions show he’s more than just a casual fan. He mentions Amanda Kimmel (“Survivor China”) who’s admittedly still well-known, but hardly as recent as David. But then he mentions Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) who, while recent, is a less-remembered and I believe underrated player. This, to me, indicates that Tommy knows what the hell he’s doing out there, but doesn’t do so in a way others might catch on to. True, his pet peeve of bullies is a bit concerning, but if he can keep it under wraps, much like his intelligence, then I’m confident in saying that Tommy has what it takes to be a winner.

Karishma Patel (37, Personal Injury Lawyer, Houston, TX, Lairo Tribe): Remember when I said there was another occupation that seems like it would play well on “Survivor”, but I feel really doesn’t? Yeah, that other one is lawyers. Despite what the recent victory of Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) might indicate, generally, the skills of arguing in a courtroom aren’t going to win you many favors with the contestants. As Willard Smith (“Survivor Palau”) once told us, “A significant portion of [people] know lawyer jokes.” True, so do a significant portion of lawyers, but there’s still that bias to contend with. Karishma compares herself to to Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Str”), but to me, she seems closer to Nadiya from the same season. Loud, in your face, and an easy person to consent around. Having limited challenge skills from what I can surmise, coupled with not being lucky on which tribe she was placed on, Karishma gets the dubious honor of being my predicted first boot. She doesn’t seem to have the challenge chops to be worth keeping around, and I don’t see her sitting back, being quiet, and letting other people become targets. As such, first boot, and now that I’ve said that, she’s probably going to go on to win the whole thing, given my track record. Karishma, if you’re reading this, you’re welcome.

Aaron Meredith (36, Gym Owner, Warwick, RI, Lairo Tribe): If nothing else, credit Aaron for having a good self-knowledge. He compares himself to Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”), which I think is an apt comparison. Spectacular brawn, but not much else to recommend him. Still, I’ve heard of worse traits than good self-knowledge. Following the pattern of his comparison, Aaron will probably be an early-to-mid merge boot. It helps a lot that he’s on the tribe that going to need strength early on, as his pet peeves of laziness and ignorance might be triggered on the show. Pre-merge, people are going to need him in spite of that, but once the merge hits, he becomes a threat, and I don’t see him having the capacity to last much beyond that.

Molly Byman (27, Law Student, Durham, NC, Vokai Tribe): Molly is definitely an interesting one. Very mixed on the good and the bad. A woman who likes board games, as established with Kellee earlier, is a woman after my own heart, and casual tarot card reading makes for a good bit of flavor. Plus, another superfan. On the minus side, Molly, well, stands out. In case it wasn’t obvious, on “Survivor”, that’s rarely a good thing. Especially in the early game, even a slight difference can be enough to evict you. Other players, desperate to spare themselves the humiliation of an early boot, will seize on anything to avoid the dreaded snuff. While Molly is not the worst offender I’ve seen, and she does have the good fortune to be on what I’m considering the dominant tribe early on, she’s just always going to stand out in a crowd, which you don’t want. As such, despite her good fortune, I’m predicting another pre-merge boot. Think Flicka from “Survivor Cook Islands”. Memorable character with a fun lifestyle, but not going to win “Survivor”.

Tom Laidlaw (60, Former NHL Player, Greenwich, CT, Lairo Tribe): Ladies and Gentleman, may I present to you, OUR FIRST CANADIAN CONTESTANT… Who currently lives in the US, but hey, baby steps. Much as I like the novelty of this, and am happy to see Canada finally getting some representation on the show, Tom is not going to be a good outing for the country. His answers are a little short, but nothing he says in his bio is particularly damning. Hell, his pet peeve is probably one of the safest: driving in slowly in the fast lane. Something perfectly understandable, yet unlikely to be encountered on “Survivor”. The trouble that Tom can’t escape is his age. Sure, he seems in great shape for a 60-year-old, but like it or not, the body atrophies, and even an in-shape 60-year-old body is something of a liability. This, on a tribe that cannot afford liabilities. While tom seems inoffensive enough to escape the first boot, don’t be expecting him to make the merge. Sorry, Canada. Maybe soon we’ll have “Survivor America vs. Canada”, and you can get better representation.

Missy Byrd (24, Air Force Veteran, Tacoma, WA, Lairo Tribe): Ah, our resident military contestant for the season. These types of people generally fall one of two ways: Either they blend in well with civilians, and are helpful about survival without being domineering, or they try too blatantly to take charge and get on everyone else’s nerves. Given that Missy lists “Annoying human beings” as her pet peeve, I’m inclined to say she falls into the latter category, but I don’t think it’s a death sentence for her. Whatever trouble she may have bonding with her fellow contestants, it cannot be denied that Missy is in tip-top shape, and on a tribe that needs that, like Lairo, such personalities might be ignored. Presuming a 2-3 tribe switch at some point, I even think Missy will survive to the merge, since she’s likely to be the big challenge gun on whatever small tribe she ends up on. Once that merge hits, though? Now Missy is a threat, and an annoying one, at that. As such, she probably goes around the early merge, though if she’s better at keeping her military background under wraps, she could make the mid-merge.

Jack Nichting (23, Graduate Student, Harrisonburg, VA, Vokai Tribe): When you don’t have video of many of these people talking, there’s not a lot to go on beyond what’s written. Even so, despite his writings overall being good, I don’t give Jack great odds. He talks a big game about playing the “smarter than I look” card, but I get the sense that that’s just what he thinks he needs to say, rather than what he is. At his core, Jack strikes me as an inoffensive, yet strong, party boy. This will serve him well early on, but I just don’t see him having the smarts or the killer instinct to win. In fact, I’ll go even farther and call him a pre-merge boot, though post-swap. There’ll be bigger fish to fry on a large tribe, but after a 2-3 swap, he stands out a lot more, and I could see a Lairo minority taking him out as a big gun from the original Vokai. Plus, his pet peeves deal with personalities he’s likely to see on “Survivor”, so having him out here fits my pet theory. Sorry, Jack.

Elaine Stott (41, Factory Worker, Rockholds, KY, Lairo Tribe): Here’s another where I don’t think what’s on paper belies how they actually are, though in Elaine’s case, I think it has less to do with who she is, and more to do with where she is. She’s an older woman, and while this cast is not as bad as some in this way, the show is skewing young once again. She comes across as motherly and no-nonsense, two things that can be tough to relate to. She doesn’t seem particularly strong. An yet, paradoxically, I think Elaine will make it deep in “Survivor”. Once again, the tribe she’s on has everything to do with it. Yes, Elaine seems like she won’t be the best at challenges, and yes, it does seem like her personality could be a bit annoying to live with, but there’s a lot of people like that on this tribe, who are way worse about it than she is. Thus, she’ll be kept around early, probably often the alternate boot, but never evicted. Then, once she makes the merge, she’s no target. Basically, another Lauren Rimmer (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and as someone who quite enjoyed Lauren on that season, I’m all for it! Elaine will definitely provide some fun and original moments, and I look forward to seeing her make it deep.

Jason Linden (32, Personal Injury Lawyer, New York City, Vokai Tribe): Jason may not talk about his career as much as others, but I still say it does him no favors. The trouble is that Jason is another one who doesn’t really give me a lot to work with. Another generic strong, nice guy with not a lot else to recommend him. Like most in this archetype, he’ll do well pre-merge, but then become a threat. I will give Jason slightly better odds on this than usual, though, and for two reasons. One, he’s on the tribe I think will dominate early on, so he could be ensconced in the majority for a while, even post-merge. Two, he does at least on paper understand that “Survivor” is a social game, not a purely strategic one. Again, not sure if that will carry him far in the game, but it is just enough to allow me to push him into the mid-to-late merge category, rather than the early-to-mid merge category.

Elizabeth Beisel (26, Olympic Medalist, Saunderstown, RI, Lairo Tribe): Elizabeth is another one who gives very little, and I think it’s to her credit. She doesn’t go quite as far in this as Tommy, but there’s still subtle little touches that I like. Notably, she again compares herself to an off-beat contestant, Kara Kay of “Survivor David vs. Goliath”. True, a recent season, but I would argue not one of the stand-outs of the recent season, implying both fandom and a good bit of self-knowledge, both of which I like. On top of that, looking at her photo, there’s just sort of a charming, unassuming, girl-next-door kind of vibe that’s not going to rub anyone the wrong way. Add on her being physically competent on a tribe likely to keep physical strength, plus another pet peeve (scrolling on phones while talking) that’s not going to come up on the show, and there’s no other place to put Elizabeth than as my female winner pick. Yes, this means once again, I’m going with the Olympic Swimmer as my female winner pick. Evidently Katrina Radke (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”) didn’t burn me badly enough.

Jamal Shipman (33, College Administrator, Providence, RI, Vokai Tribe): You don’t like bugs, and you went on “Survivor”? Big check mark against you, man. Luckily for you, that’s the only check mark against you. Jamal seems charming and athletic, but not threateningly so, with a bit of relatability that can take you a long way in this game. Plus, once again, he’s on the tribe unlikely to lose. Despite some generic answers, assuming he can survive the bugs, I think Jamal is an early-to-mid merge boot. He may be a bit too nice to win, but I think he’ll do well nonetheless.

Janet Carbin (59, Chief Lifeguard, Palm Beach, FL, Vokai Tribe): Janet really wants to do what Elaine did earlier, but unfortunately, I don’t think she’ll be as successful. Unlike Elaine, she doesn’t seem to have much charm beneath her exterior, despite her claims to the contrary. Her answers are brief, and while that means she’s unlikely to spill secrets, it can also come across as cutting off conversation, and even in reading it, that’s what it seems like to me. Her pet peeve of lazy people should be no problem, though. I mean, it’s not like we’ve ever seen lazy people on “Survivor” before, right? But, like Tom before her, Janet’s big hurdle is her age. Even on the tribe that’s likely to win early, age is a liability, and not one they’re likely to let sit around. Unless Elaine can weasel her way in as a worker bee, she’s out pre-merge. Depending on the success of her tribe, she might make the swap, but not much beyond that.

Dan Spilo (48, Talent Manager, Los Angeles, CA, Vokai Tribe): Rounding out our cast, Dan to me is probably the person who benefits the most from being on Vokai. While not necessarily “old”, he is “old” by “Survivor” standards, and doesn’t seem particularly physically fit. Being a Talent Manager, first of NYC, lately of LA, you can bet he’s got a forceful personality. And, the crowning death knell for Dan’s chances, his pet peeves are all about people’s attitudes. “Stubborn people”, “Ignorance”, and “Close-mindedness”. Again, because you never see THAT on “Survivor”. And yet, I mark him as a mid-merge boot? Why? Well, similar to Elaine, while he has marks against him, others on the tribe have them arguably worse. With a tribe that’s likely to win a lot of challenges, Dan strikes me as that annoying player who squeaks by a lot of Tribal Councils, then is safe early in the merge due to being the person no one will vote for in the end. He won’t win, because eventually even a million dollars is not worth putting up with such a personality, but he’ll make it deep. Plus, his last-name basis of past winners implies he has enough knowledge of the game to tamp himself down a bit early game. It won’t last the longer Dan lasts in the game, but he should last at least a fair while.

And there you have it. Not much to do now but wait until the season starts to see the boot order be completely flipped from what I predict! Even if so, though, I must admit, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season. We’ve got a lot of fun characters to work with, very few duds, and most importantly, no one that annoys me greatly. Really, the worst thing about this cast would be the number of “standard” listings for previous contestant comparison. Kelley Wentworth seems poised to overtake Parvati Shallow (“Survivor Cook Islands”) as the go-to for young women, but even the men are now getting in on the act, with Jeremy Collins (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) and Wendell Holland (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) being popular choices.

No matter what, though, we can take solace that this season will be better than last season. Granted, given that last season had the “Edge of Extinction” twist, and this one does not, this season would have to actively sabotage itself to be worse, but still, it’s hope.

See you at the premiere!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.