Writing a blog about the latest episode of “Survivor 45” here, boss!
What, not every introduction is going to be some long diatribe. Brevity is the soul of wit, you know.
Once again, we start off with what is basically a “Previously On..” segment, even if we don’t get Probst narration telling us that. Unlike last weeks, which was a time-sink but otherwise unobtrusive, this one is bad in that it spoils the outcome of the episode. While we’ve had a bit of the alliance dynamics of each tribe, ONLY Belo’s is highlighted. Sure, we get what we need to understand Little Lulu’s move last episode, but nothing deeper than that, and Reba only gets Austin’s idol hunt, not any of the alliance-forming that went with it. The only logical conclusion is that Belo must lose, so they’re reminding us of their dynamics in advance. I mean, I SUPPOSE they could be pulling a fast-one, and this is a fake-out, but what are the odds of that?
Getting into the new content, everyone is, of course, relieved to have survived another Tribal Council. Sabiyah notes how different the game mentality is from the Marines, where Brandon was just too much of a liability to keep around, where in the Marines “No One Gets Left Behind”. A good bit a character we don’t see as much in the modern day, but relief quickly gives way to strategy.
Emily couldn’t help but notice that Brandon was voted out with only two votes, something mathematically abnormal if there were four votes as she thought (Brandon’s inability to vote being a known quantity). She correctly pegs Sabiyah as the one most likely to have an advantage, and asks if this is the case. Sabiyah denies this, and Kaleb comments that while Emily is getting better, she’s still going and picking fights with the one person she SHOULDN’T be doing that with. While I take his overall point, I have to admit Kaleb’s being a little harsh here. Yeah, Emily’s still a bit blunt, but she’s asking rather than declaring, and doesn’t make a big issue out of it. She’s allowed to ask questions, and she was not particularly abrasive in doing so in this case, at least compared to previous instances.
Hell, even Sabiyah is not particularly put-out by Emily doing so. She admits that she and Emily are from different worlds and have different ways of thinking, but also says it isn’t personal. Honestly, a good, mature way to go about it, and a way to have conflict remain in the show without it becoming uncomfortable for a modern viewing audience. Well done, show/casting.
This leads to Sabiyah giving Emily back her shot in the dark, and the pair saying that trust has been built. Given that it’s now clarified that the shot in the dark IS transferrable, I’m kind of amazed Emily wasn’t the boot, but if she’s going to stay, better to give it back and avoid those fireworks. All that said, I’m sure this grudging respect from Sabiyah is just misdirection, and will have NO bearing on the episode whatsoever. Unlike the preview saying Belo will lose. No way that’s wrong.
Morning over at Belo, and we see Jake’s promised collapse. This ultimately comes to little physically. Dude basically had happen to him what happened to [redacted] on “Survivor The Australian Outback”: Deprivation plus exhaustion combined with smoke in the face equals a faint. Thankfully he manages to not do so directly into the fire, so he’s fine.
It does give Kendra, the one all about girl-power, an excuse to talk to him, and the pair admit that they haven’t really talked much, something Jake takes on himself. They seem to be simpatico personality-wise, and this leads Kendra to tell him about their targeting of him. Ok, even leaving aside whether this is a wise idea, it’s a BIG load of hypocrisy coming from Kendra to tell Jake “I’m coming here with an open mind.” when she has been the single biggest proponent of “The women are sticking together no matter what” on this tribe. Go ahead, expand your options, but maybe don’t do so quite so blatantly and hypocritically, Kendra.
Over at Reba, they discover that two worms they had been saving in a pot have been eaten by a crab. They are, for some reason, disappointed by this. Eat the damn crab. I guarantee it’s tastier, and has at least as much meat on it as two worms, if not more. Ok, maybe they were saving the worms to fish, but then either A: Get more worms; they can’t be THAT hard to find, or B: Use the crab meat as bait. It should work better, if anything.
As a side note, this blog was very nearly titled “Eat the Damn Crab”.
Talk quickly turns to idols, however, as Austin and Drew think they’ve found the “palm tree x” they need, and idol fever has taken over their minds. They want to find it so badly, but they just can’t wait until the opportune time. They agree to keep watch over each other while the other digs, but frankly they do a poor job of it. Dee and Julie happen to be walking by and notice Drew digging. Not being idiots, they quickly realize that Drew is keeping something from them. This gets Dee’s hackles in particular up, but they do their best to play it cool as they pass by, asking if he’s looking for coconuts. Drew, also not being an idiot, doesn’t try to deny that he was digging, and instead plays it off as him digging where he saw Sifu dig. About the best lie he can come up with, and while the foursome are still working together, Dee and Julie definitely are keeping their eyes open.
We then cut to… A reward challenge? In this era? Indeed, it’s the “Heather Aldret” challenge from back in “Survivor 41”, just starting in the water this time, and with a slightly different ending. Tribes run from the water to shore, where they have to one at a time toss a ball onto a chute. They then run under the chute, which has trip-wires, to try and catch the ball at the other end. Once four balls have been caught, one by each player, they toss a ball to lower a ring target, where they must then land three rings to win reward. Both first and second place win a certain amount of fruit, with first place also getting to loot one item from another tribe’s camp. This is definitely a smaller-scale challenge, but it’s got some nasty bits here and there, leads to some good faceplants from the trip-wires, and I did get a weird joy out of the lowering mechanism for the ring target, so I’ll give this a pass.
Some people from Reba and Belo are shocked to see Brandon gone from Little Lulu. Um, did they watch the same challenges we did? Like, I get that teams are competing, but surely SOME of them saw Brandon’s epic fails, and would have passed that along to the rest of the team.
It seems it really WAS Brandon holding them back in challenges, however, since Little Lulu pretty easily cruises to a first place win here. And that when presumably dehydrated from the lack of fire. Kudos to them. Really, the only one who remotely does badly is Emily, who gets at least one faceplant and seems to take a few tries, and even she was no worse than, say, Katurah on Belo, and no one’s saying it’s her fault they lost. Really, the only reason Belo does lose is not because they’re bad, but because Kaleb and Austin are good rind tossers that they don’t have any competition.
With their win, Little Lulu does NOT, for some reason, get flint. I guess the idea is that you have to win an IMMUNITY challenge, but in my view, a challenge is a challenge. They win when they don’t have flint, they get it. Save the taking away of flint for immunity, that I get, but these people have been beaten down enough, Probst. Throw them a bone!
That said, Little Lulu does have an opportunity to get flint. After all, they’re going on a camp raid, and as far as I know, there’s no rule that says they couldn’t take the flint of another tribe? True, that tribe could win it back at the next immunity challenge, but without fire, you’re setting yourself up to be more likely to lose the challenge yourself! Dehydration is no joke in the tropics! Better to strengthen yourself, rather than weaken the other team, especially now you’ve proven you CAN win a challenge. Plus, the other team is less likely to be mad at you for taking something they can get back.
While we don’t see who Little Lulu decides to steal from yet, this means that the correct choice would be Reba. They’ve won more than Belo, so taking from Belo would be more of a kick in the teeth, especially something this essential to survival. What we DO see for certain from Little Lulu is who they’re sending, as they’re unanimous in Kaleb being the one to go. All a fair choice. While it’s a shame to miss out on the comedy of Emily interacting with the other tribes, Kaleb is, as they say, the diplomat of the group, and therefore the smart person to send to get as much information as possible, while losing as little in the process.
We hear a bit of speculation from both Reba and Belo about who is going to get raided, with Belo being the most vehement that they should not get raided, as they’ve lost enough. Luckily for them, Little Lulu is of the same mind, as Kaleb shows up at Reba. Rather than go for the flint, however, he quickly makes clear his intention is the fishing gear, though he plans to leave them the spear. Ok, I won’t criticize leaving the spear too much, since that’s a good diplomatic way to do things, but if you weren’t going to take the flint, I would say it’s actually smarter to steal from Belo than Reba. If you aren’t going to strengthen your own team with fire, then you REALLY need to weaken another team. Given that Belo has won less, better to keep them on the back foot as much as possible, if you’re not going to strengthen yourself.
Kaleb, of course, is not just there for fishing gear, but to gather info. He gets everyone into casual conversation, convincing Sifu and J. Maya to do a duet with her singing and his air guitar, with the soundtrack obligingly adding real electric guitar sounds over Sifu. From there, he moves to one-on-one chats. He does well at this, but also does it pretty blatantly. Julie in particular calls out how good of a player he is. Kaleb is charming, sure, but he’s not exactly subtle in his charm.
What Kaleb does have, however, is the “Goodwill Advantage”. This allows someone who has lost their vote due to, say, a Beware Advantage, to regain it. I must admit, I’m pretty on board with this one. It’s building in a logical way on the game mechanics we’ve already established, while also favoring social play (it’s one of those “Give this to someone else” sort of advantages). Not overpowered, social in use. Yeah, this is definitely a new twist I can get behind. Kaleb, probably to try and build trust with who he perceives as the power broker on Reba, gives it to Drew, effectively giving it to Austin, so it will be put to some use. That’s the one advantage to going and raiding Reba: The Goodwill Advantage can also have some power, as opposed to on Belo, where it would be a flop.
Hey, remember when I said that Kaleb was good socially, but also kind of obvious about it? Yeah, that doesn’t just apply to the other tribes. Little Lulu has noticed as well, and this has led Sabiyah and Sean to consider turning on Kaleb should they lose again. They deem him too big a social threat to let go to the merge. His threat level is fair, but as I said last episode, trusting Emily long-term is likely a mistake. Plus, Kaleb is the ONLY reason you’ve been having a chance in these challenges. Better to keep the loyal and strong player over the on-the-bottom, not as strong player. Still, with no vote on the horizon for Sabiyah, they loop in Emily, who’s naturally suspicious. She wants to believe she has a shot to make it through without playing her shot in the dark, but also notes that Kaleb is her closest ally at this point, and this could all be a ploy to make her feel safe before blindsiding her. Kaleb comes back before much more can be discussed, so I’m sure it was just foreshadowing for future episodes, and will have no bearing whatsoever on this episode in particular.
As a side note, Little Lulu also mentions in this scene that fishing gear is useless without fire, which I have to question. Sashimi is a thing, guys. You can still get food that way.
After commercial we’re back at Belo, where the men have gone out on the raft. This leaves the women time to talk, and with Kendra and Jake’s newfound connection, coupled with Bruce grating on everyone’s nerves more and more as time goes by, they talk about switching the initial target should they lose from Jake to Bruce. Katurah in particular is in on this, noting how hard it’s been to get the others to talk bad about Bruce. Kendra seems convinced, but Kellie is still unwilling to make a move without consulting Brando just yet. Still, she seems to be leaning that way, noting that they further they go, the less they need Bruce. We don’t really hear Brando’s reaction, but Bruce does seem to be the main target moving forward.
It’s so obvious that Belo is going to Tribal Council, it’s not even funny.
Reba, meanwhile, is less about the alliances, and more about the idols. Deciding not to keep up the charade any longer, Drew and Austin reveal his Beware Advantage to Dee and Julie, who agree to help the pair dig. Drew and Austin only change up the timeline slightly as to when they found it, so it looks like they didn’t lie. You’d think the “I saw Sifu digging” thing would clue them in, but Drew passes it off as not wanting to give the game away in case J. Maya and Sifu were nearby. If I were Julie and Dee, I wouldn’t buy it, but they seem to let it go for now.
Their plan is this: One person stays behind at camp to occupy J. Maya and Sifu, while the other three look for that thing buried beneath the “palm tree x”. Just as they (and I) get the idea they might be digging in the wrong place, Dee and Julie find a rope, eventually leading them to a hammer, whose handle informs them that they must join a chain gang, and smash a rock by the water well. Despite their suspicious, they decide to hand it off to Austin to do, presumably realizing that even if they’re suspicious, it’s better not to burn bridges just yet. It goes unsaid, but I suspect they also realize that Austin would know they’d found something even if they did keep it a secret, since he’d have his vote back. Thus, better to take the social route for now.
The only wrinkle is J. Maya, who comes upon them at about the same time.. Luckily for them, Dee and Julie are better actors than Drew, and manage to pass it off as nothing, then pass off the hammer to Austin. After Austin channels his inner quarrier and smashes a few rocks, he finds his idol. There is much rejoicing, but this idol has a wrinkle to it: It can only be used at Austin’s next Tribal Council. If, however, Austin forgoes his vote (a la shot in the dark), its life extends until “all tribes are together on one beach”. If he forgoes his vote a second time, it’s good until the final five. Again, I quite like this wrinkle. Adds a decent dilemma to the idol, prevents it from being TOO powerful, even considering the previous risk, and again, rewards those players who can use their social acumen to avoid the need to vote with more power. This could go horribly wrong, but I’m in favor.
Dee ends by telling us that while there’s still some suspicion there, the foursome of Reba have reaffirmed their bond for now. Yep, quite the boring tribe, dynamics-wise. I’d complain, if I didn’t already know for certain that Belo was going to lose the challenge.
Said challenge that Belo will lose is basically “Dragging the Dragons” from “Survivor Cagayan”, save for the puzzle, which is the 3-D cube one we’ve seen a bunch of times. Decent enough challenge to reuse. Little Lulu starts off behind, with Belo being ahead up until the puzzle. We all know this is where they’ll choke. It always comes down to the puzzles on these ones. Sure enough, there goes Reba taking first place, and there goes… Belo… taking second.
Ok, my apologies if I confused anyone, or made them question my sanity, but I was SO thoroughly convinced that Belo would lose from the first minute of the show, and this was the best way I knew to demonstrate it to you all.
Yes, Little Lulu continues to LuLose. Perhaps it’s less Brandon and more puzzles that are their problem. Proving her diplomacy has improved, Emily does not throw a fit. She admits that she’s angry, but manages to express it constructively. Too bad I still think she’s likely to go. She would be the smart choice for basically everyone, as the worst challenge performer we’ve seen left on this tribe, and the least loyal. Hell, Kaleb even said she would have been gone last episode had she not tried to make improvements before then, which shouldn’t make her comfortable with her position, and give others more reason to vote her off.
After the expected commiserating, this initially seems like what will happen. Sabiyah makes it clear, however, that her targeting Kaleb was not just idle chit-chat for the future. She means it, but, in a clever move has a way to let Kaleb believe she doesn’t mean it. Making like she’s dead-set on Emily, she says she’ll tell her to vote Kaleb. Thus if Emily, the only person with a reason to keep Kaleb outside of general challenge strength, lets on, Kaleb will just assume it’s the fake plan. Quite a smart move, and as Kaleb doesn’t believe he can save Emily despite all his work, quite a good one.
Sabiyah also decides to let Emily in on her trust circle further, revealing the wax idol to help explain why Emily’s vote is so vital. Not that Sabiyah plans for that to be necessary. She states that she intends to throw the wax idol into the Tribal Council fire and let it melt, getting it that way. This then begs the question of why she didn’t do that LAST time if it was allowed, but whatever. Not a bad plan, if you have no hope of getting fire any other way.
Not a bad plan, save that Emily doesn’t like the idea. While I get Sabiyah’s intent, Emily takes it as “You didn’t trust me until now”, as opposed to Kaleb, who demonstrated trust beforehand. To her credit, Emily manages to NOT blurt this out the second she thinks it, and bluffs Sabiyah well. She does go to Kaleb before Tribal Council, however, and let him know, suggesting they vote Sabiyah instead, and agrees to go to rocks if necessary. While Sabiyah’s “decoy” lie comes back here, Kaleb is smart enough to at least consider.
Yes, somehow the debate has come around to “Kaleb or Sabiyah?”, in which the correct answer remains “Emily”, for the reasons I stated previously. If, however, Emily is off the table for some miraculous reason, Sabiyah is the correct answer for all involved. Yes, Kaleb is a threat. This makes him a great shield for the merge, where he can easily be picked off before you. On top of that, if you do get rid of him, you’re losing the next challenge pretty much guaranteed, as he’s your strongest player. 1/3 odds of going home are not ones I would take, personally. Kaleb needs to be let go at some point, that much is true. But early merge is where he can go, not now.
This is, bar none, the most exciting pre-merge Tribal Council of the modern era, and it’s entirely due to all the pageantry around Sabiyah’s idol. The rest of the talk is pretty standard, everyone playing their cards close to their chest, and talking about the obvious tribe dynamics so as to give nothing away. But we always have to cut back to Sabiyah checking on the idol, maneuvering it with sticks she brought, getting Sean to pour water to cool it off. It’s really engaging stuff. Artificial, perhaps, but certainly more memorable than anything else that’s happened recently. The Jenny boot in “Survivor 42” maybe comes close, but I like this one better as it’s just one interaction rather than several things interacting at once.
Unfortunately for Sabiyah, she should have read the idol instructions earlier. While she does succeed in getting it, only in the booth does she read the part about holding off her vote to make it last longer, since her idol works the same as Austin’s. She ultimately decides not to, trusting Emily to save her own neck. This was a mistake, as Emily does the smart thing, and with Kaleb, sends Sabiyah home. Little Lulu gives her a good send-off, and there seem to be no hard feelings. Save from myself, who is sorry to see Sabiyah go. She was a character archetype we hadn’t seen in a while, had pretty good game sense up until this episode (and even then was hardly playing the worst game I’ve ever seen), and while Kaleb seems nicer in general, Sabiyah was more engaging as a character. The smart decision, but a sad one from a character perspective.
This season continues to deliver, and this time, I’m not sure how much of that was the 90-minute format. It certainly helped, and I’m happy we got the intro again, but what made this work was the character interactions and the misdirection. The twists added were pretty simple but innovative, just how I like them. Maybe it would have been too rushed in 60 minutes, but it could still have worked.
Icing on the cake? A proper swap next episode, for the first time since “Survivor Winners at War”. Finally!
-Matt
Title Credit to Jean Storrs.
idolspeculation 