Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 10: The Birds and The Applebees

I am hardly a defender of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  When folks call it “The worst season ever”, I tend not to put up much, if any, argument.  Its flaws are many, too many to list here, but I’m sure I’ll enumerate them the next time I update my season rankings.  That being said, it cannot be denied that the presence of Karishma on that season has done one service to the “Survivor” community.  That service being to make Applebees an automatic punchline.  And that, in its own small way, is a positive in my eyes.  

But we’re not here to talk about that season, we’re here to talk about “Survivor 46”!  I barely touched upon it last time, but given that things had to go to a revote, it was pretty clear that there was at least something of an intentional vote split, in case Hunter had an idol.  The only question to me was how many people were IN on it actually being a vote split.  Clearly all the Hunter votes had that intention, but how many of the Q votes thought he was a legitimate target?  An argument could be made for all of them, an argument could be made for none of them.  

The answer, it turns out, is that everyone except Liz was in on it.  Liz is, understandably, a mite peeved at all this.  Everyone tries their best to calm her down, with Venus stating that the plan happened last-minute, and there wasn’t time to let her know.  Plausible enough, though I’d be a bit skeptical given that, if the plan really WAS that last-minute, you’d expect at least one other person besides Liz to be left out.  I suppose it’s possible that she had a late confessional interview, and everyone else didn’t, but unlikely at this point, in my view.  Still, while clearly being pissed, Liz handles the situation relatively well.  More so than for some other situations we’ll get to in a bit.  

To her credit, Venus has a good read on the game, once discussion turns to why Hunter didn’t play his idol.  The prevailing theory amongst the group seems to be that he must not have had one, but Venus (who knows better) correctly surmises that Hunter just felt safe given how fervently Q was targeted.  Therein lies the paradox of Q: His erratic gameplay and general difficulty to live with make him a desirable target, but BECAUSE he’s so desirable, he makes a good smokescreen for whatever plan you have going on.  

Speaking of Q, despite what I said earlier, he does seem to be finally taking a chill pill.  Outside of Liz, who still holds a grudge for him “stealing her move”, most everyone seems kind of indifferent to Q.  He’s being more laid-back, which is probably a good thing.  Let the heat on you cool down a bit.  I might question him separating himself from the tribe THIS much, but given how deep of a hole he dug himself, a bit of separation might help his game more than anything else he could do.  That said, most everyone agrees that they’re in no rush to befriend him again, even if they aren’t as mad as before.  Tiffany says he’s a grown man, and if he wants to come back and make amends, he can.  

Only Maria seems willing to make an effort with him right now, in a scene eerily reminiscent of Terry comforting Abi-Maria on “Survivor Cambodia”.  Q being all about control, I expect him to try and run any plan Maria suggests into the ground, purely because it’s not “Q’s Game”.  In a good showing of growth, however, Q is actually pretty receptive to the whole thing, and polite throughout.  Praise be, the man is LEARNING from his mistakes, and we love to see it!  Q DOES tell us he wants to control his own game, but it’s in the same way Gervase was going to control his own game on “Survivor Borneo”; namely winning challenges.  Not the greatest plan, but again, without more work the guy doesn’t have a lot of options, and he IS one of the bigger challenge threats left, so I can’t fault him much.  

In the morning, we’re back to other strategy talk, as Kenzie reaffirms to Maria and Charlie that she’s still in on the “Vote Tiffany Out” plan.  We also get some reasoning as to WHY Kenzie wants to make this particular move, and to be fairer to her than I was last episode, there is some logic to it.  Kenzie admits that Tiffany is her closest ally, but that this also means their moves have been made in tandem, which could hurt her getting credit at the end if she doesn’t break away at some point.  Further, there’s the threat of the idol messing up a later attempted blindside.  Frankly, particularly in the modern era, these are fairly valid concerns.  My issue is now less with the move itself, and more with Kenzie’s TIMING!  

Yes, Kenzie, you do need to stake your own claim away from Tiffany.  But aside from the fact that voting her out entirely is not a prerequisite of that (merely leaving her out of a vote), you still need SOME people loyal to you.  I get that you’ve been bonding with Ben, and Charlie, and Maria, and all that, but SURELY you have more trust in Tiffany!  That’s a bond that should not be discarded until absolutely necessary.  Look at the case of Maryanne Oketch (“Survivor 42”). She had similar reasons to vote out a close ally, but she WAITED until much closer to the end of the game, when there was much less risk of being branded too untrustworthy and getting taken out herself.  If you want to pull off that sort of move, THAT’S the sort of timing you need.  Granted, the presence of Tiffany’s idol is a bit of a wrench in things that moves up the time frame a bit, but even then, Final 9 still seems a bit early, and you could flush the idol without betraying Tiffany.  The sort of thing you want to happen, but not actually play a part in, is what I’m saying.  

Off to our reward challenge, literally the FIRST since we merged.  Five episodes ago.  Then really, what was the point of merging?  The challenge itself is standard obstacle course fare, mostly involving sandbags.  Nothing much worth noting.  What IS worth noting is APPLEBEES!  The biggest reward of the season!  Probst rhapsodizes about the deliciousness of the food while our starving players salivate.  He notes that “This is what future players dream of.”  Gotta say, speaking as a fan who’s had his fair share of “Survivor” dreams over the years, Applebees never factored in once.  

Liz in particular is overjoyed at this reward, and not just because it’s food she can actually eat.  She notes that she and her daughter have “Survivor Sleepovers”, which involve going to Applebees before watching the show on Wednesdays.  She even has a regular order.  It gets the job done ok, but she’s no Karishma.  But I’m sure this is just product shilling, and will in no way be important later.  

The best thing about this reward?  Probst does not describe it pre-challenge as being at “The Sanctuary, Where Good Things Happen”. May that stupid slogan have gone and died in a fire forever!

With no puzzle at the end to equalize things, Q’s early lead does net him a win, though to be fair, a lot of people get to the final leg as well.  Tossing a sandbag onto a tall pole is no easy feat, so even Q takes a while.  In addition, the music does a good job faking us out that some people may get it in one shot.  Q does win, though, making no one but himself happy.  He is naturally then given the choice of three people, one at a time, to take on the reward with him.  His first choice is Tiffany, which makes sense.  She seemed open to the mending of bridges at the start of this episode, and a full stomach is going to work wonders on that front.  His second choice, Maria, I also can’t fault.  She’s the only one actively talking strategy with Q, so of course she should come along.  Can probably help mediate with Tiffany as well, in case of any lingering resentment.  

Then comes the third choice, and both Liz and the players are pushing hard for Q to take her.  Liz literally begs Q, while Probst reminds him that she’s been unable to eat most everything out here, and they failed at the rice negotiations, meaning she isn’t getting food that way either.  Q hears this, takes it to heart… Then passes over Liz and chooses Kenzie.  

Say what you will about this move, the optics of it are not good.  I get not picking her first or second.  Prioritize your strategic preferences.  Liz, being one of the people most on the anti-Q train, would not be good for him for talking strategy.  But seeing someone that desperate for food, in that difficult of a situation, and not taking them once your strategic priorities are set?  Yeah, it just ain’t a good look especially when Q’s jury equity is already pretty well in the toilet at this point.  

With the obvious out of the way, let’s talk about a few of the other points surrounding Q’s decision here, since while it is a bit of a dick move, I don’t think it’s baseless.  From a purely strategic standpoint, there’s no reason to take Liz.  Indeed, she’s at or near the bottom on that metric.  Q has basically no intention of working with her, and as I said, I don’t think she’d be receptive anyway.  Moreover, it’s not entirely fair to hold Q solely responsible for Liz not getting a reward.  Yes, he made the selections, but people on reward, even those taken, are allowed to give it up!  Tiffany, Maria, or Kenzie could all have said “I give this to Liz”, but none of them did.  Yet we never see anyone mad at them.  Shows how thoroughly Q is in the doghouse socially at this point.  

Even in defeat, however, Liz is not about to get overshadowed by Q again.  She blows up, and I mean BLOWS UP!  Screaming to the heavens, shouting out every grievance she’s had since the merge.  It’s enough that even those sympathetic to her look uncomfortable.  And for the viewer, it does straddle the line between “fascinating” and “uncomfortable”.  Raw emotion works well on screen, but for something like a reward, this seems like an overreaction.  In addition, one could argue that it’s bad for Liz’s game.  While she hasn’t been getting the credit she thinks she deserves, one positive benefit there is that Liz also hasn’t been getting a target on her.  By including “her move being overshadowed” in the outburst, she’s cluing people in that she may be playing harder than first thought, and that may put a target on her back.  

Still, I can’t really fault Liz here.  As she says, she’s in her emotions, and being on the brink of starvation does not help one’s emotional control.  Yes, it’s a bad move, but Liz in this moment is not really thinking strategically.  And to her credit, she does quickly calm down and express her frustration in a calmer manner.  This does not change her situation, however, and everyone heads off in either jubilation or despair.  

The worst part about all this?  Probst brings back the damn Sanctuary Slogan.  Dammit, show, you had one job and you blew it!

We’ve heard from Liz, but what do folks back at camp think?  Ben is not a fan, though it is surprising that he doesn’t say “That did not rock.”  Instead, he talks about how it meant so much to Liz because of the family connection, but here, I have to disagree.  You can think Q pulled a dick move for denying the starving woman (well, more starving than everyone else, at least) food, but you could argue that EVERYONE could have some family connection to that reward.  Maybe people have families who like burgers.  Maybe people have families big into mixed drinks.  Everyone’s got something, however tenuous.  Liz’s thing is special to her, sure, but it’s not unique, and not a good reason to make a bad strategic move.  

But we see that even the people on reward are not thrilled with Q’s decision. Well, at least Kenzie isn’t.  Tiffany and Maria are mostly just happy for the food, but Kenzie admits that she didn’t expect to be taken.  She presumes that Q wanted to mend fences, but she says that won’t work, comparing it to an ex taking you out to a nice dinner to try and get back together.  The gesture is nice, but it doesn’t undo the past.  Fair enough.  

Speaking of the past, Liz is still dwelling on it, and my sympathy is rapidly dwindling.  Yes, Liz has a right to be pissed over the whole situation, but she’s taking quite a while to simmer down.  Again, I don’t want to be TOO harsh, given how rough conditions are for her out there, but it does seem like she’s making this out to be a bigger deal that it ultimately is.  We even lead into a flashback regarding her and her daughter’s “Survivor Sleepovers”, which we do not need.  A description was enough.  

Well, Q has firmly planted his picks in the strategic realm; how’s that working out for him?  Not great!  Despite Maria’s hopes, Kenzie is still firmly on the “Get Q Out” train, presumably not mentioning the Tiffany plan because, well, she’s right there.  Despite how she seemed at the start of the episode, Tiffany says this doesn’t change much, and she’s all for getting out Q.  Maria admits to wanting to use him as a number, but isn’t sure about how it will work right now.  

Things don’t look much better for Q once they get back to camp the next day.  Charlie asks about the reward, which Tiffany in particular goes on and on about, even noting she couldn’t eat the burger (Liz’s stated favorite food there) because there was so much.  Liz tells them to “read the room” in confessional, but again, I’m not going to blame them too much for this one.  It’s not like they came up and started talking about it out of the blue; Charlie asked a legitimate question.    Even then, they didn’t particularly go on about it beyond the usual descriptions you’d expect.  MAYBE you could argue they shouldn’t have mentioned the burger bit, but that’s a stretch in my book.  More out of her emotions now, Liz apologizes to Q, which he seems to accept.  Liz admits, though, that this was a pure lie, and fair enough.  Liz has little reason to work with Q at this point, but no reason to put him on edge.  

For his part, while Q does demonstrate an understanding of why Liz was feeling the way she felt, he tells us in confessional that he has no remorse for his decision.  As he shouldn’t.  If he was looking at it purely from a strategic perspective (as he indicated doing), then his picks were very logical.  His logic didn’t work out, but it at least had a fair to good chance of doing so.  Can’t fault him for that.  I will, however, fault Q for saying he “Doesn’t care what she thinks.”  In your world, Q, Liz will be on the jury, so you’d BETTER care what she thinks!

Anyway, time for our immunity challenge, the “Hold your pre-game weight in a bucket on a string” challenge; the one that tests your grip.  It was first seen on “Survivor Philippines”, and contrary to Probst’s claims, I think that, and not Gabler’s run on “Survivor 43”, was the record.  Pretty sure the Philippines edition went over an hour.  

My being pedantic aside, Probst has more important matters to attend to.  Notably, it seems production has realized “Oh crap, Liz might actually die if we don’t get food in her soon.”  So yep, rice negotiations are back.  Understandably, the price is steeper this time, with four people sitting out.  Same base number as before, but now a greater percentage of those left.  Equally understandably, almost no one takes this offer.  This late in the game, it’s too great a risk, even with Liz’s health to consider.  Presumably freaking out about this, Probst offers those who do sit out their own individual rice supply, which does get Liz, and only Liz, to sit out.  Understandable move, though I’m not sure why it got applause from everyone else.  This wasn’t some brave gesture or grand sacrifice.  

In case it wasn’t clear how much everyone hates Q, Venus and Ben attempt to manifest it from the bench, Ben being out surprisingly early in this challenge.  As he said, his cradle got rocked, which I guess met his catchphrase quota for the episode.  Q lasts a decent while, but is eventually out.  The challenge comes down to Charlie, who’s dropped but had some impressive comebacks, and Tiffany, whom Charlie and Maria have said they still want to target, yet remains perfectly still, not even responding to banter.  The look on her face throughout reads “Don’t talk to me.”  

Despite this impressive performance, Tiffany drops out of nowhere, netting Charlie his second victory.  Back at camp, talk immediately turns to getting rid of Q, with Kenzie now backing down from the Tiffany plan.  She admits to flirting with it, but think now’s not the time.  Really, what tipped you off, genius?

Charlie and Maria, however, still very much want this to happen, and understandably so.  Tiffany may be a good ally for Kenzie, but not so much for those two, and her idol makes her all the more a threat.  Maria talks to Q, who again in a good display of diplomacy, agrees to go along with Maria’s plan, no questions asked.  Not that he has much choice, but still, he’s learning not to insist on his way 100% of the time.  

This, of course, begs the question of where the other votes for Tiffany can come from.  Ben is the natural first choice, and he takes little convincing.  He may not be a fan of Q, but he admits there’s bigger fish to fry, with Tiffany being one of said fish.  Still, that’s only 4 and a tie is not enough.  Kenzie and Tiffany are obviously out.  That leaves Venus, who just seems to generally dislike Q, and Liz, whose dislike of Q as of this episode is extremely personal.  

Naturally, Liz is the obvious choice.  IN OPPOSITE LAND!  Generally, yes, I’d say Liz is the ore persuadable vote than Venus.  But today, of all days?  To her credit, Liz does hear out Maria’s pitch, and it’s a good one.  Maria basically offers Liz that “Big Move” she wants, and the chance to show she’s not ruled by her emotions.  Good way to appeal to Liz.  Maria’s game is really coming into its own this episode.  

The flaw is that this really isn’t a “Move for Liz”.  This is a “Move for Maria” that Liz would facilitate.  I get why Liz would be tempted, but from her perspective, it’s better to stick with voting out Q.  Yes, she may be the swing vote, but it’s usually the person who GETS the vote to swing, not the swing vote themselves, that gets credit.  Look at the flip at the final 7 of “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Eliza was very clearly the swing vote, but no one calls that “Eliza’s Move”.  Liz will fall into the same trap here.  Ironically, despite not orchestrating it, I’d say she’d be more likely to get credit if Q goes home.  She’s been so vocal about it, her getting her way with him gone would seem like more of her move, even though it wouldn’t actually be.  Honestly, the biggest benefit in joining the vote to get rid of Tiffany would be a close tie between the idol going home, and avoiding a possible rock draw in the event of a tie.  The former is definitely a concern, which is why going with Maria’s plan isn’t a horrible move for Liz, but the latter seems easily avoided.  Either convince Ben to vote with his heart, or make the (fairly safe) bet that Mara and Charlie wouldn’t go to rocks for Q.  

While I’m happy to see Q trying to improve his social game, the flaw with this is that Tribal Council is much less exciting.  Everybody playing things too close to the chest for anything interesting to happen.  About the only noteworthy moment is Tiffany’s smile dropping when she realizes she’s getting more votes than just Q’s, which is a priceless expression.  

Yes, Tiffany goes home, and I am disappointed.  Granted, I’d have been disappointed had Q gone home as well, but I could at least see some upside to it, since it’s getting old to have him be targeted every single episode.  Tiffany was dynamic, and had the potential to shake up the strategy more so than Q at this point, so her going is definitely a loss.  To her credit, though, she goes out with an enormous amount of class, her final words mostly noting (accurately) where she went wrong, and how she should have played her idol.  Tiffany, you may be gone, but we salute you nonetheless!

Honestly, great episode!  Not perfect, but the emotions were raw and high, the misdirection was excellent, and it’s nice to see the season remaining on the crazy train.  The slow start is an issue, but if it keeps up this momentum to the end, it will all be worth it!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode Several: Wrapped Up With A Nice Little Bow

Inanimate objects, done properly, can become a character in and of themselves.  On “Survivor” immunity idols are the most common example of this, but sometimes people can create their own.  And we may just have one of those tonight.  That was a MAGNIFICENT Buff Bow on Kenzie’s head!  Even with all the emotion at her Tribal Council, I think it stole the show.  

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  While the tribe was unified against Moriah last episode, there was still the stray Venus vote to consider.  Consider it Venus does, and given how she is, she naturally jumps to the conclusion that it was cast by Soda.  Understandable, given how the pair have been interacting these past few days, but wrong.  Soda of course denies this, but this only convinces Venus further.  Everyone, Tevin in particular, is prepared to sit back and watch the fireworks.  

Charlie, then, is the rain that cancels the fireworks.  He comes clean to Venus that he was the stray vote against her.  I have to ask… WHY?  How does this benefit Charlie in any way?  Venus didn’t even suspect him, and this was tearing Nami, the biggest threat to Siga, apart.  Now she knows you moved against her, and Venus does not strike me as the type to forgive and forget.  Even in a best-case scenario, where she decides she has bigger fish to fry and doesn’t immediately try and get you out, say goodbye to that jury vote.  

So egregious is this error that Coach Q comes out again.  He sits Charlie down on the beach (with Tim also there), and just reads him the riot act about how he screwed up a good position.  Not saying Q is wrong, but unsolicited advice is not going to win hearts and minds.  Charlie defuses the situation by “apologizing”, which at least shuts Q up, but this has turned him against Q.  I don’t agree with his conclusion that “Q is running the show” based on this; at worst Q is being a bit too blunt.  It DOES show, however, that Q doesn’t respect your game, and that alone is a reason to work against him.  Point being, Q may be right about what is and isn’t a smart move, but he’s not winning friends with his style of interaction.  

After our intro, we get another scene at night, though this one a bit less confrontational.  Ben wakes up in the middle of a panic attack, and worried about how he’ll be perceived as a result.  Luckily Kenzie is used to this sort of thing, other members of her family having been through similar experiences, so she is able to assist him and comfort him.  She admits that this is something beyond the game, and she’s doing it out of general, human kindness.  Honestly, it’s a very effective scene.  A nice bit of calm before the strategizing storm, and one that didn’t need to be bolstered by turning it into a sob story.  Oddly, the understatement makes the moment more powerful, and frankly it’s just a highlight of the episode.  Well done, show.  

Because we have to stick with the stupid “Split Tribal” twist, we can’t have any more camp scenes for now.  Instead we have to cut straight to our Immunity Challenge, which is the “Stand on the Triangles” one first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  A challenge so boring and predictable I’m more fascinated by them using the buff design along the side of the platform in the water.  Nice touch.  

This is also where we get our first look at the Immunity Idol for this season, at least the individual one.  Solid design, in my opinion.  Reminiscent of the one from “Survivor Cambodia”, with red as a main color and a similar outline.  Being made of beads and adding geckos does help make it unique.  Maybe not an idol for the history books, but a solid entry regardless.  

I will say what this challenge lacks in interest in and of itself, it makes up for in banter.  After Probst notes that the calmer conditions compared to the last time this was run (“Survivor 42”), Q suggests playing the “Alphabet Game” with city names, without actually explaining what the Alphabet Game actually is.  A fact that comes back to bite him in the butt when basically everyone starts violating what Q perceives as the rules.  Hunter starts off with “A for Atlanta”, but then Ben gets knocked out due to not saying that again, despite saying both “Boston” and “Baltimore”.  Liz does get the C in there, but again fails to name the previous names, despite Q saying this must be done.  It’s capped off with Charlie saying he gets it, only to make the same mistake as Liz.  Pretty sure that last one, at least, was intentional.  Seems like too good an opportunity for Charlie to tweak Q’s nose in a joking manner for him not to take it.  

Q, incidentally, is the first one out of this challenge, followed shortly by Ben from his team, leaving Kenzie, Tiffany, Hunter, and Tim up on their side.  Soda falls at about the same time, but she’s on the opposite team, leaving Charlie, Maria, Tevin, Venus, and Liz up for them.  Despite being sidelined, Q still keeps up a good bit of commentary.  He explains to Probst how “Black folks ask what time it is.”, which Probst takes in stride.  When Q goes silent, he explains that he was taught to shut up if he’s not in the game.  Evidently unable to stand the silence, Tim pulls a Gabler (“Survivor 43”), and starts shouting out various people the audience doesn’t know during the challenge.  Q mocks him for this, only for Tim to remind him what his dad taught him about shutting up.  It’s honestly the one thing making this challenge fun, and it helps that it’s clearly just the cast having fun with one another, and no one taking the talk too seriously.  Probst even gets in on the fun a bit, reminding us of Jelinsky’s “Several=7” point from earlier in the season.

Eventually the challenge must get serious, though, and everyone transitions to standing on one foot.  Brenda Lowe and Andrea Boehlke can rest easy knowing their impromptu rule on the first run of this challenge remains an official part of it now.  This leads to several dropouts, but Kenzie, despite winning immunity, drops before either Tevin or Maria.  This means her team will miss out on a reward, and go to Tribal Council first, meaning whoever leaves misses the jury.  As for Tevin and Maria, they have a good battle, with Tevin even having a spectacular comeback from nearly falling over.  IN the end, though, Maria’s lower center of gravity wins the day, and she snags immunity.  

Our teams are sent to separate camps, with the winning six going to the current merge camp.  Here we find out the new tribe is dubbed “Nuinui”.  No real complaints here on that one.  The name is a decent length, and obviously Polynesian in origin (granted Fiji is in MELANESIA, but given they’re part of the same language family, I’ll take it at this point).  That said, all it really makes me want to do is get out my old Bionicle toys again.  

Despite winning, not everyone is happy.  Charlie notes that he’s in an exceptionally precarious spot, being one of only two original Siga on the tribe, and the other having immunity.  He realizes he’s exceptionally vulnerable, a status that Tevin confirms.  Tevin, however, is not content to just let things sit on the obvious target, telling us that he wants to invoke the “First Blindside of the Season”.  Jem might take issue with that characterization, Tevin.  

Over with our losers, Hunter is feeling nervous for similar reasons to Charlie.  He tells us he intents to play his idol tonight, a move I can’t really fault.  True, there is the “Journey 6” alliance he could trust in, but he is the only person without an initial-tribe ally in this group.  Further, he’s a noted physical threat at a rare moment without having immunity, making him a tempting target.  

Certainly Tim thinks so, since he tells Q that Hunter should obviously go.  Q, however, thinks it equally obvious that Ben should go.  After all, Nami is at each other’s throats, and Ben is the only one in this group not part of the “Journey 6”.  Ok, Kenzie technically isn’t either, but she’s immune, and Q is unlikely to go against an original Yanu at this juncture.  A member of the “Journey 6”, however?  He’ll turn on them in a heartbeat, now insisting it has to be Tim for his wishy-washy-ness.  A bit early to be turning on him, but also a bit early to be giving my thoughts on the targeting on these tribes.  

I will say, however, that I don’t buy for one minute that Q intentionally lost that challenge.  It was one that didn’t cover his skill set, and he lied to save face.  Understandable, but either Q’s a far better actor than I credit him, or he’s lying to the camera to save face.  

For now, let’s return to our winners, who have the more intriguing strategy.  Tevin is not the only one who wants to “Make a move”.  Soda is ready to get Venus out, and tries to enlist Charlie and Maria to that end, once everyone is done “napping” on the beach.  Understandable, given their tiff, but also a bad move for Soda.  She’s already kind of screwed since she’s not going to the end with Vcnus, and therefore if she IS in the end, Venus is guaranteed to be on the jury.  Guess who Venus will never vote for in a million years?  Even so, better to have her on the jury later than earlier, lest she poison the whole bunch against you.  

This, however, is not enough of a blindside for Tevin, who marshals Liz, along with a presumed Charlie and Maria, to get out Soda.  He considers her, fairly, to be a social threat.  Can’t deny the logic there.  Not content with this, however, Soda approaches Maria and Charlie individually to blindside Tevin.  Charlie seems on board, at least in part because he prefers ANY plan that doesn’t involve him getting voted out, but Maria is a bit more hesitant.  She wants to keep her options open with the “Journey 6”, and Tevin is a part of that.  Hence, conflict, even if getting out Tevin would be the thing to break Nami apart completely.  

Things get worse for Venus when, having already come on strong with Maria, she pushes her again.  Maria, pretty reasonably, gives Venus advice on how to come at people.  She sympathizes with Venus due to her age, but notes that people don’t like being told what to do.  This advice goes in one ear and out the other, Venus chalking it up to their age disparity.  Way to not work on yourself, Venus.  That said, she does at least tone it back to a vote against Soda, something Charlie and Maria are much more likely to go with.  They confer on the beach, Charlie noting that he’s weirdly safe.  Not sure how much of that is due to his effort as much as Nami being a hot mess, but still, good for him.  

As our targets for this group are now firmly set on either Soda or Venus, time to discuss what the best move is.  Clearly, between these two, it’s Soda.  She’s the more subtle player, and Venus’ presence will continue to make Nami at least seem more fractured (if not actually be more fractured), thus making them seem less threatening.  Further, Venus has so buried herself socially she’s unlikely to win many jury votes, and isn’t much of a challenge threat.  If she gets to the end, well, easier victory for you.  Might as well chop Soda off now.  Not to mention that Venus, if the first juror unanimously, will likely poison the jury against all of you.  Yeah, clearly go for Soda.  

In regards to our other group, there is dissension amongst the ranks.  Kenzie, admittedly, is happy with going for Tim, since her and Ben kind of vibe.  Tiffany less so.  That said, props to Ben for catching that Kenzie was not being 100% up front with him.  I thought Kenzie lied pretty effectively there, but he sussed it right out.  

Tim pitches Hunter to the group, who agree to split votes, but Q turns it on Tim as soon as he leaves.  Tiffany agrees with this, correctly noting that Nami is easy to break up, while Siga is less so.  However, Ben comes across as slightly sketchy when Q talks to him, leading to Q turning it back on Ben.  This makes Tiffany happy, but not Kenzie, especially since Q seems to waffle back and forth, and doesn’t let them get much of a word in edgewise.  

This leads to the promised pair discussing Q “running the show”, and predictably, the preview played this up.  Don’t misunderstand, there is a legit issue between them and Q, but it was built up to go somewhere tonight.  Had Charlie been in this group I might have bought it, but no.  Instead, they just note that Q is a bit inflexible, and also a bit prone to changing his mind.  All fair criticisms.  I might sum it up in that Q is a very binary player.  You’re either fully in agreement with him, or fully disagree with him.  Not much room for nuance in the world of Q.  On the one hand, if you’re truly his ally, this can be a great thing!  After all, as long as you don’t piss him off, you can guarantee he’ll stick with you.  That said, as we saw with Ben, staying on his good side is not so easy.  It’s not clear what exactly Ben did to turn Q against him from their conversation, but it flipped Q’s mind completely.  That can be a problem, so it’s understandable that they would consider moving against him.  But, as they note, it’s probably too early.  

With Hunter not much in contention, the debate is between Tim and Ben, and once again the answer of who should go is clear.  Ben is a social threat no one there apart from Tim has really connected with.  Tim is a much more predictable player, and keeping him around prevents the “Journey 6”, which Q at least is pushing hard, from fracturing.  Ben is the clear better choice here.  

We’re also left with little doubt that Ben will go, since he gets all the emotional content at Tribal.  He goes over his panic attack again, and everyone gives him sympathy, while also noting there are human moments outside the game.  Q, for his part, is also courteous, giving Kenzie major props for winning immunity.  The real star of the show, however, is Kenzie’s giant bow buff.  An hour after the episode aired, and I still love that thing.  

For as much as I hate the “Split Tribal” twist at this juncture, the show got a good draw here.  You can have the emotional climax first with this group, then the strategic one with the next.  Not intentional on their part, obviously, but a good way to balance it out, and not feel like we’re waiting for one group or the other to go.  Going to commercial in the middle before an obvious boot like this is a bit much, but hey, the other group has enough mystery to keep us happy regardless.  

Yet, once again, the show gets me.  Tim goes, which I absolutely DID NOT expect.  Good trick, editors.  The bad decision for basically everyone but Kenzie, but definitely an audience blindside.  That said, from a character standpoint, much the better decision.  Ben may not do it for me as a character, but he’s more interesting than Tim, who basically brought nothing.  Seems like a nice enough guy, but just not good tv, sadly.  I will, however, give Hunter some praise for not playing his idol.  Granted, he probably had a lot of trust in what Q was saying, so it’s not the weirdest decision ever, but still, he had valid reasons to believe he would be targeted.  Good on him for saving his idol.  

As mentioned, our second Tribal Council is the strategic climax of the episode.  Logically, this makes for less exciting banter at Tribal, with it being mostly the stuff you’d expect.  Charlie bringing up his Shot in the Dark.  Venus and Soda bringing up the tribe divisions.  We do get a couple of unusual moments, like Liz catching flak for not bringing her bag.  I do have to deduct points on Maria, however, for using a metaphor where one wasn’t asked for.  Don’t encourage Probst, Maria.  

Oddly, despite this being the more unpredictable vote, it’s also the more underwhelming one.  The group does the smart thing and votes Soda out.  She’s a bit teary about the whole thing, but thankfully she at least gets to sit on the jury.  I’m not the biggest fan of Venus, but I am glad she stayed, if only for the drama she brings.  If Ponderosa videos were still a thing, I’d want her on the jury as early as possible, but as is?  I’m fine with this.  

For the episode as a whole, it weirdly fails kind of in spite of itself.  The humor was on point, the editing top-notch.  We had good mystery, and a lot of good character bits.  Yet I confess myself, underwhelmed.  I don’t hate this episode, but it just kind of came and went with little fanfare for me.  I think it’s just a victim of how much had to be stuffed in.  With this many people, and two Tribal Councils, it just feels bloated.  The superiority of the previous factors helps make up for it, but there’s only so much you can do with this format.  Yet another reason to vary things up, show.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Cast Assessment

Folks, I have an important announcement to make: Not only do we have the newly-officially-released cast of “Survivor 46” to discuss today, but the production team have also given us a rare peak behind the curtain.  A glimpse at the inner workings.  We now know the key factor it takes to get cast on this show.  The answer is: Be a gutsy idiot.  

Yes, do you value stability in your life?  Do you feel like taking the safe route when it comes to your personal finances?  Good for you, but get out of the applicant pool!  We only want people who throw away something they’ve worked toward on a wing and a prayer here!

I mock, I mock, but I do so out of love.  Honestly, good for all the people on the cast who did this.  Clearly if worked out for them, and if they’re happy (and not harming anyone in the process), then power to them, I say.  And certainly “Survivor” is no stranger to casting people like this; the list of people who’d taken major risks like this in their personal lives is innumerable for this show.  But this season really feels like they amped that up, or at least put emphasis on it.  Nearly everyone in their bio talks about changing their job to follow their passion.  Again, fair enough for them, but a bit on-the-nose as far as casting goes. Now then, snark out of the way, onto the assessment itself, starting with:

Jemila “Jem” Hussain-Adams (32, International Brand Mentor, Chicago, IL, Siga Tribe): I personally am not a fan of doing such things myself, but were I to ask an AI to write me up a “Generic Survivor Contestant Biography”, I feel like Jem’s is what it would give me.  Someone fun-loving and social.  Says they’re not interested in something if it’s not risky.  Did a fair number of extreme outdoor activities.  Lists as similar players “Boston Rob, Tony Vlachos, Kelley Wentworth”, aka “The relatively famous players most people will know by now.”  Very much gives the impression of someone semi-familiar with the show, but not a superfan.  I know this is making out Jem as someone who’s kind of bland and can’t hack it, but sometimes this stuff is all you need.  Hence, we are getting my first winner pick of the season out of the way early.  Jem does have a few specific things going for her related to her bio/photo.  She grew up in Berbice, Guyana, and her discussion of it implies that she spent at least part of her adult life there. Thus, she might be more used to the tropical climate of Fiji than we might otherwise credit her.  Based on the photo, she doesn’t look like she’ll be a challenge liability, which is always a plus.  But really, I’d say her biggest upside is that she doesn’t seem to have a major weakness.  For all the comparisons she makes, I’d compare her to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” winner Michele Fitzgerald the most.  Specifically, it’s not that she stands out, or does anything spectacularly well, but that she does nothing badly.  She’s not a challenge beast, but not weak enough to be taken out specifically for that.  She’s not a shy introvert, but not a loud, over-the-top personality either.  This season doesn’t skew quite as young as other recent ones, but has a lot of people in their “late 20’s, early 30’s”, and Jem slots right in that demographic nicely.  She’s not a game-bot, but she knows the strategy well enough to get by.  And sometimes, getting by is all you need.  Honestly, the biggest weakness of this type of game is that it can falter if the team goes to a lot of early Tribal Councils, but while there is no “disaster tribe” this season, based on the rumored divisions, there is a “strong tribe” of the season, and I see Siga rarely, if ever, going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  This gives Jem all the time she needs to integrate, and by the time of the merge, there’s bigger fish to fry.  Expect her to unexpectedly sneak to the end, only to give a banger performance at Final Tribal Council, and then sweep up far more votes than those with her would have expected.  

Ben Katzman (31, Musician, Miami, FL, Siga Tribe): Ben compares himself to Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Cody Assenmacher (“Survivor 43”), but like with Jem, I think he misses the mark on the true comparison.  If there is a second coming of Vince Sly of “Survivor World’s Apart”, it’s this guy.  You all remember Vince, right?  The “Coconut Vendor who Seeks Truth”.  Yeah, that over-the-top character.  The beachy guy who quit a job (in this case, more professional music production) to follow his dream (in this case, just making the music he wants). Transplant Vince from the west coast to the east, and you’ve basically got Ben.  Luckily for Ben, he seems like enough of a challenge asset that, in the unlikely event that his tribe goes to Tribal Council pre-merge, he won’t be a target despite his potentially grating personality.  That said, don’t expect him to get too far.  That personality can get old fast, and while he might survive mergeatory, don’t expect him to get much past that.  An early-merge boot due to just being difficult to live with, and if there’s another “split tribal right after the merge”, I’d say that’s where his game runs out.  

Jessica “Jess” Chong (37, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Yanu Tribe): I feel for Jess, I really do.  She seems very nice, and not quite as over-the-top in the whole “career change” thing as others this season (yes, she did change jobs, but she stayed in her field, just working for herself rather than a corporation).  She even has good self knowledge, comparing herself to Tai (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), Gabby (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), and Maryanne (“Survivor 42”).  All players I quite like.  However, despite all their good track records, they are not necessarily the formula for success on “Survivor”.  Aside from there only being one winner out of the three, this is a personality than can be hard to live with, particularly on small tribes, and unfortunately, Jess doesn’t have the luxury of being on the tribe unlikely to go to Tribal Council.  Honestly, I think her time in the game is largely going to depend on how well she individually does at challenges.  I don’t think she’s first out of her tribe either way, but if they go on a losing streak, she’s an easy pre-merge casualty.  If she only attends one or two pre-merge Tribal Councils, and doesn’t cost her tribe any challenges, then she probably makes a deep late-merge run.  Kind of a wishy-washy answer, I know.  If you put my feet to the fire, and force me to pick one, I’d sadly have to say that Jess is probably a pre-merge boot, though less due to her own faults, and more due to some people just needing to go there, and there not being a lot of obvious pre-merge fodder amongst this cast compared to some other recent ones I could name.  

Bhanu Gopal (41, IT Quality Analyst, Acton, MA, Yanu Tribe): So remember how I just said it was difficult to figure out who the pre-merge boots were this season?  Well, that goes double for predicting the first boot.  Seriously, this is the hardest time I’ve had selecting someone to be the first boot in these predictions.  Usually SOMEONE jumps out, or gives off that vibe, but this season?  I can only rely on the data, and sadly, Bhanu has a lot of data points working against him, in my view.  I’ll credit him that he’s one of the few who DOESN’T mention upending his career in his biography, which I would say would lead to more stable, consistent gameplay, normally a good thing.  But this career upending is SO pervasive this season, that I’m not sure that style of play is going to work.  In fact, it might work against Bhanu here, since his philosophy on life is so different from most of the rest of the cast.  Again, it could work given time, but time is not something I feel comfortable saying this tribe has.  Add on him comparing himself to Cochran of “Survivor South Pacific” and “Survivor Caramoan” (someone most vulnerable in the early game), and describing himself as an introvert (thus needing more time to build the relationships he’d need to survive), and there’s just a lot working against the guy.  While this is a slightly older cast on average than previous ones, 41 is still a bit outside the average.  I don’t think age will be a major factor, but if his age shows in his challenge performance, then he’s an easy early pick to go.  To me, he doesn’t look like he’ll be a challenge liability, but then again, I thought Brandon on “Survivor 45” would be good in challenges, so we see how good I am at eyeballing that particular game aspect.  Reluctantly, I must make Bhanu my pick for first boot, as he just has too much against him.  I hope I’m wrong, however.  

Kenzie Petty (29, Salon Owner, Charlotte, NC, Yanu Tribe): Kenzie quickly won her way into my heart by being an avowed “Settlers of Catan” fan.  Now, winning your way to my heart won’t necessarily make me give you good odds at going deep in the game, but even taking my feelings out of it as much as possible, I give Kenzie decent odds.  Again, bearing in mind my previous comments about me not being good at picking who’s going to be good in challenges, Kenzie seems like she at least won’t be a liability.  While she is loud and a stand-out, both in personality and looks, it’s not so much so that it would strike me as grating, and I see there being more valuable targets to take out on Yanu.  Unless they go full disaster (which, despite my earlier comments, I have my doubts), Kenzie probably sticks around for a good bit.  Kenzie also does a good job balancing the free-spiritedness of the cast as a whole with practicality, since her “job story” is less about leaving a job for another one than it is not doing as much pre-planning when seizing an opportunity presented.  Like I said before, I’d normally consider such a jump a liability, but with this cast, it should vibe well, and comes across to me as less inherently risky.  As long as she has some good game sense, Kenzie should stick around until the mid-to-late merge.  Honestly, the fact that she DOES stand out in a couple of aspects is the only thing stopping me from making her a winner pick.  

Charlie Davis (26, Law Student, Boston, MA, Siga Tribe): Charlie is a nerd through-and-through, and wears it on his sleeve.  Don’t believe me?  He compares himself to Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  If only he had thrown in Cochran, he’d have hit the “nerd” trifecta.  Self-knowledge is a good thing for sure, and the upside for Charlie is that he’s on the tribe I don’t see visiting Tribal Council much, if at all.  Prove yourself in a puzzle or two, and you’re probably set for the merge.  The downside for Charlie is that, with his nerd-dom on his sleeve, everyone else can see it too.  With “Survivor 44” and Carson being particularly fresh in everyone’s minds for this season, I doubt anyone is going to let him get super-close to the end.  Hence, Charlie is probably an easy target in the early-merge, and goes somewhere in there.  Not much more to say about him than that.  Nice guy, but an archetype we know well, and fairly predictable in how he’ll do as a result.  

Liz Wilcox (35, Marketing Strategist, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): Yes, lest you thought “Survivor” was going to shake things up, there are still three tribes this season.  It just took us until Liz to actually talk about someone from Nami.  And as the first representative of her tribe… Liz isn’t the best.  She looks like another fun nerd, though she compares herself to Russell (presumably Hantz of “Survivor Samoa”) and Sandra (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), neither of which seem like a fit for her from how she describes herself.  Neither of them strike me as “Fun-seeking” or “Growth-minded”.  Also don’t know if she’s just not a big fan of the show and has thus only heard of some of the bigger names, or just really loves “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Either is plausible, quite frankly.  Liz has a great story about overcoming a fear of public speaking and general social awkwardness.  Great for her, and while it means she probably has good social skills that she’s learned, one tends to revert to one’s personal habits in a deprivation situation, so I could see those not being as honed as Liz normally has them.  If she does do that, she’s in trouble.  Any sort of social awkwardness is a reason to get someone out, and Liz is also one of the few challenge sinks I see on this season, so I don’t see much reason to keep her around if they attend Tribal Council at all.  I don’t think she’s the very first boot, but definitely another pre-merger.  And we will be all the sadder for it.  

David “Jelinsky” Jelinsky (22, Slot Machine Salesman, Las Vegas, NV, Yanu Tribe): In the contest of “Who did the craziest/riskiest thing with their life this season”, I think I have to give the award to Jelinsky here.  While lots of other people changed careers, or up-sticks and moved without much of a plan, Jelinsky outright dropped out of high school.  Folks who wanted non-college-educated people on the show, you got your wish.  Jelinsky does have several things working in his favor this season.  Chief amongst them is that he’s a young, athletic guy on a season without a lot of those.  Pre-merge, at least, that makes him valuable, especially since he’s on a tribe with a bit of a dearth of strength.  A career in sales, as we’ve seen with several recent contestants, can be good preparation for the show.  And amongst his contestant comparisons, he lists a number of players who saw success with “playing dumb”, something that, between the looks he has and the skill set he has, is a pretty good strategy for him to take up.  That said, Jelinsky does also have a few red flags that seriously hurt his chances in the game.  The big one is age.  Like I said, this season skews slightly older than more recent seasons have.  Now, early 20’s isn’t that far off from late 20’s, but it’s still a gap Jelinsky will have to bridge, and if he’s perceived as too much of a “kid”, a la Xander of “Survivor 41”, it may not matter how good of a game he plays, as no one on the jury will respect it.  Secondly, and this may be me reading too much into things, but Jelinsky strikes me as having a bit of an ego.  Maybe it’s his asking to be referred to by his last name, maybe it’s how he talks about himself in the third person, but this strikes me as a guy who won’t be quiet, and thus rub others the wrong way.  His strength being a necessary asset, plus his salesman skills, probably carry him through to the merge, but expect him to be the mergeatory or early merge boot, due to these red flags.  

Maria Shrime Gonzales (48, Parent Coach, Dallas, TX, Siga Tribe): Right away, the thing that stands out about Maria is her age.  This cast may not skew as young as more recent casts do, but even then, Maria is a bit without peer.  There’s a couple of other players in their 40’s, but it’s EARLY 40’s for them, meaning Maria’s closest peers in this game, by age, are still seven years apart.  Not an insurmountable gap, but one she’ll have to overcome.  On top of that, she seems less “free-spirited” than the rest of the cast, as she’s notably one of the few who didn’t mention upending their life to follow their dream.  She’s still driven and has values, of course, but she seems a bit more circumspect about going through it rather than just winging it and seeing what happens.  Add onto that her very much exuding the “mom” archetype, which has traditionally been a very “all or nothing” type in terms of how they do, and you’ve got a recipe for a player with high risk in the early game.  Luckily for Maria, she’s placed on Siga, the tribe I would say is least likely to attend a pre-merge Tribal Council.  IF they do, look for Maria to be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening. Historically, once the mom archetype makes the merge, they tend to do quite well, and I don’t anticipate Maria being an exception to that.  She seems to have enough game acumen and enough of a level head to play well.  As we saw last season, however, the finally hurdle for this archetype is getting past the “being too likable” issue, and I don’t see Maria avoiding that.  She’ll be taken out either in the finale or just before it as a jury threat, but still, expect a deep post-merge run from Maria.  Sometimes a good hand is all you need.  

Hunter McKnight (28, Science Teacher, French Camp, MS, Nami Tribe): I went back and forth between two people for whom I would give my second winner pick two, but ultimately, after much agonizing, I have settled on it being Hunter.  I don’t know, the dude reminds me of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and that means “winner energy” for me.  I don’t know, maybe it’s just them both being teachers, maybe it’s the reddish hair, but I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is not Tommy.  Hey, if you’re gonna remind me of a previous player, a skilled winner is hardly a bad one.  Not that Hunter’s personal pick for comparison is bad either.  He went with Hayden (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”), which I appreciate for being a bit of a deep cut into “Survivor” history at this point, but one with a decent strategic record (albeit no victory).  Hunter is also another one I’d say is more reasonable in dropping something in life to pursue a passion, since in Hunter’s case he dropped further study to go back and teach in his hometown.  Dropping out for an established, stable career, even one not as well-paying, speaks to a good bit of common sense that can serve him well in the game.  That said, it’s enough “free-spirited-ness” that it won’t be off-putting to the rest of his cast.  All in all, Hunter is a very well-rounded player, and thus one I expect to do quite well.  Granted, between my two picks, I would go with Jem over Hunter, only because I had to agonize more over his pick where Jem felt quite natural, but again, not knocking Hunter.  Dude’s got skills.  

Moriah Gaynor (28, Program Coordinator, San Diego, CA, Siga Tribe): Every tribe these days has to have their designated “nerd”, and Moriah is that for Siga (guess Saga gets two, since Charlie is also here).  That said, I Weill give her credit that she doesn’t wear it as much on her sleeve as the likes of, say, Liz or Charlie this season.  The neediness is there, but more subdued, only coming out in things like the occasional D&D reference.  Being low-key is hardly bad with such small numbers, and couple that with Moriah being on a tribe likely to win a lot of early challenges, she should be sticking around for quite a while, barring an epic challenge fail.  That said, there’s also not a lot to recommend Moriah overall.  Again, nothing bad, nothing detrimental.  But there just doesn’t seem to be that spark, that zest, that drive to go the extra mile to win that the truly spectacular players have.  This to my mind lends Moriah to a solid, but nondescript mid-merge finish.  A solid alliance member, but not a leader, and her exit will not be majorly mourned by most of the community.  

Q Burdette (29, Real Estate Agent, Memphis, TN, Yanu Tribe): Fun fact, this is the first given name in US “Survivor” to start with a Q.  This is also the other guy I was considering for my second winner pick.  In Q’s case, it’s less data based than Hunter’s was, and more about the vibes.  I dunno, some pictures just scream “charming” to me, and Q did just that.  He’s my personal favorite of the season, and despite a relatively bare-bones bio, I quite like him.  I can’t quite say it’s “generic” as there’s a few turns of phrase and bits of info here and there that catch the eye, but the dude seems to have put the minimum effort into what he wrote.  He also gave the lame answer of “Bits and pieces from a lot of players” when asked who he was most like.  That may very well be true, but still, a cop out in my book.  I could talk about the real estate skills being helpful on the show, but that has a bit less impressive a track record than regular sales that I talked about a bit ago, so I’m not sure how much it applies.  Still, Q is a dark horse to win based on charm alone, and I expect him to stick around until the late merge, if not making the finale.  Really, only his lack of concrete data to back up the vibes keeps him out of a proper winner pick.  

Soda Thompson (27, Special Ed. Teacher, Lake Hopatcong, NJ, Nami Tribe): Everyone, we now have a real-life Disney Princess on our season.  Seriously, her risk-taking moment is marrying a guy she hadn’t known for very long; the quintessential Disney Princess move!  Ok, in fairness to Soda, she knew this guy for a much more reasonable six months, and it appears to have worked out, so hey, power to them.  While Q just before may have had the lamest answer to “Which former player are you most like?”, Soda probably wins the award for the weirdest.  Her answer?  “Survivor 42”.  No player, just the season.  What, so you’re like the entire cast rolled into one?  Those are some pretty disparate personalities you’re combining, then.  My take on this is that Soda, more so than anyone this season, doesn’t really know the show that well, and just conjured up a recent bit that she remembered.  This makes me question if she really knows the game at all, and if she can apply her skills where needed.  Look, I’m not going to act like foreknowledge of the game is a REQUIREMENT to do well.  The likes of Yul (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Earl (“Survivor Fiji”) are a testament that it’s not.  But couple that with Soda just seeming generally “nice” (she lists her hobbies as “Singing, taking walks, and doing random crafts”), and I have to think she doesn’t have the cutthroat hard core needed to make a deep run.  Add on her not looking like she’ll be great in challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Sorry, Soda.  You seem nice, but I don’t think the game is for you.  

Randen Montalvo (41, Aerospace Tech, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): I strongly, STRONGLY suggest that Randen focus on his military career when discussing what he does with his tribe, rather than mentioning the aerospace thing.  Again, this cast played fresh off the finale of “Survivor 44”, so they saw Carson dominate in puzzles, and nearly win, were it not for fire-making.  He mentions the word “aerospace” to this cast, and he’ll be out faster than a supersonic jet.  Luckily, I think Randen is smart enough to keep that under wraps.  Dude does not look like the sort of guy you’d expect to be an engineer, but if he’s smart enough to be one, he’s smart enough to downplay those smarts, if that makes sense.  Add in some good physicality on a tribe that’s probably going to badly need some physical power for the challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a decent length run.  Randen probably goes out somewhere in the mid-merge area, since I see enough fellow smart people on this season to suss him out, but early on, at least, he should be fine.  

Tiffany Nicole Ervin (33, Artist, Elizabeth, NJ, Yanu Tribe): Hoo boy.  Some people, their bio just SCREAMS “early boot”.  I can see why Tiffany was cast, though.  She’s a bright, bubbly personality, but that’s where the trouble starts.  Tiffany explains that her friends describe her as “living in a land of rainbows and unicorns”, though she disagrees.  Given her tone in her writing, however, I’m inclined to agree with her friends.  The sort of personality that pops on tv, but probably not the best fit for a treacherous game like “Survivor”.  On top of that, Tiffany admits she likes to play things risky, playing the lottery often in real life.  Again, understandable why that would do well on tv (big moves and all that), but probably not the smartest in terms of overall gameplay.  Unless her tribe has some MAJOR challenge sinks who need to go before her, expect her to go somewhere in the pre-merge.  Again, sorry Tiffany.  You seem nice, but “nice” doesn’t win “Survivor”.  

Tevin Davis (24, Actor, Richmond, VA, Nami Tribe): Fun fact about theater kids: We can sense each other a mile away.  You probably remember Tevin from the season preview.  He was the guy with long hair who screamed upon being given his buff.  I took one look at him and thought “theater kid”.  Sure enough, his bio comes out a few weeks later and confirms it.  Tevin is definitely a loud personality, which on a small tribe can be a problem.  That said, he’s also a young, fit guy on a season where, as mentioned previously, those are in short supply.  His tribe is going to need that, so expect Tevin to stick around for a decent length of time, barring that his tribe goes into being a complete disaster.  Tevin’s acting skills (as in toning down his loud personality) combined with his strength probably get him through to the merge, but there’s only so long you can tone down your personality. Once Tevin opens up, probably during the early merge, he’s going to get grating fast.  Combine that with the threat of an individual immunity run, and Tevin is probably out in the early-to-mid merge, due to being too threatening and too grating.  He will definitely stand out on our screens the whole time, however.  Also, this has literally no bearing on how he’ll do in the game, but I wanted to mention that while he’s currently from Richmond, VA, his hometown is listed as “Goochland, VA”, and childishly, I find that incredibly amusing.  

Venus Vafa (24, Data Analyst, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Nami Tribe): Just when you thought that “Survivor” would learn the threat that Canadian players pose, here comes Venus.  And as if there already wasn’t an uphill battle for Canadians on this show after multiple successful performances, you put on a Canadian who looks woefully unprepared for the game ahead!  Venus seems very worldly, aka “not going to do well in the outdoors”.  She seems like a city girl through and through, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does call into question how well she can hack it in the wilderness.  On top of that, when you compare yourself to a character from “Mean Girls”, that implies the starting of much drama.  Good for tv, bad for chances in the game, particularly with the smaller tribe size of the modern era.  That said, I will give Venus two points in her favor.  One is good self-knowledge, since she lists the players she’s most like as being Parvati (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Cirie (“Survivor Exile island”), who if you’re someone who’s not going to be the greatest in the outdoors, well, they pretty much wrote the playbook on how to do well in spite of that.  Assuming the comparison is apt 9which I get the sense it is) Venus does have some good social skills to call upon.  Also in her favor is that, while she’s by no means a challenge beast, she seems competent enough that I don’t see her costing her tribe a challenge, or being the first target if/when they do lose.  Unless she really makes a stink about how hard the elements are for her, I’d expect her to be a late pre-merge, early post-merge boot, depending on how much they do go to Tribal Council.  Not good enough to hack it long term, but at least good enough to survive a few votes.  

Tim Spicer (31, College Coach, Atlanta, GA, Siga Tribe): Rounding out our cast is Tim, who I would argue gives the most questionable answer to any of the bio questions in the entire cast.  Who does he say he’s most like as a player?  Shamar from “Survivor Caramoan”.  Now, as a super fan, I applaud the deep cut from “Survivor” history, and that may be the first time Shamar has gotten a mention since he initially played.  But, Tim, do you REMEMBER Shamar’s game?  Is that REALLY who you want to emulate?  Not exactly setting yourself up for success.  Now, in fairness to Tim, knowledge of game history is generally a good thing, and it MAY just be a bit of an inside joke, given that his previous answer involved an anecdote about gluing his eye shut.  But if it’s not, and Tim emulates his game style, then the only reason he isn’t a pre-merge boot is because his tribe seems unlikely to attend Tribal council in the pre-merge. Dude’s largely unremarkable outside of that one answer, and if the Shamar thing is just a joke, he’s a late-merge boot.  If it ISN’T a joke, he’s an early-merge boot.  Thus, in the spirit of compromise, I’ll split the difference and declare Tim a likely mid-merge boot.  

And that about wraps it up for this cast!  For all my jokes, honestly, this one seems kind of underwhelming.  Hardly an unlikeable cast, and with only one or two exceptions, I had something of substance to say about all of them.  But while I vibed with a couple of people, none of them also really grabbed me like other seasons have.  I doubt it’ll be a BAD season, and there’s always room for me to be proven wrong, but if you’re looking for this to be a legendary season, I’m not holding my breath.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Finale: Bad at Math

There are many skills one needs to be able to win “Survivor”.  Social skills, obviously.  Strategic skills never go amiss.  Skill at finding small objects in the woods is becoming more and more of a valuable tool.  And even basic survival skills still matter, at least a bit.  But one underrated skill is being good at math.  And if you don’t believe that helps on “Survivor”, go back and watch the trials and tribulations of Brad Culpepper on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Man literally leaves because of math.  

After our requisite “ooh”-ing and “aah”-ing at the new camp, we get down to business.  Austin is, of course, rather stunned at Dee leaving him out of the vote, and it’s here we see that Austin’s math skills are a bit wanting.  He talks about having “two number ones”, something that is mathematically impossible in this context.  Still, the dude takes it all in stride.  Perhaps a little TOO in stride.  He acknowledges the “Dee lied to me” portion, but chooses to focus more on the “Dee is still here” portion.  Is he lovesick, or just that chill?  Either way, his chances in the game plummet with each frame.  All is well between the lovers, though, who share a long cuddle on the beach.  

Such a cuddle does not go unnoticed by the others, with Julie joking about sending out a party to let them know they won’t sleep until they come back.  Katurah is a bit sharper in her criticism, noting correctly that a duo is bad for her game, and needs one of them to go.  Probably Dee for being a big jury threat.  Hey, Katurah is finally channeling that anti-Bruce energy into a more strategical-sound place!  Only took all season!

Morning, of course, brings a scramble for a challenge advantage.  Honestly, this scavenger hunt is kind of lame, basically being a repeat of the “Waambulance” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Run out, find and count the things, use them to solve a combination lock, if you’re wrong you have to go back out for another look.  Take away the ropes course part, and this is a scaled-down copy.  Not the worst challenge, but hardly exciting.  

Everyone talks about the scramble for finding the things, and Dee and Austin collude with one another, but it’s Jake’s slow and steady approach that wins the day, and consequently gets the most focus.  It helps that the mnemonic device was on the editors could have fun with, since Jake associated the number with the winners of the respective season.  Hence, the combination was JT (“Survivor Tocantins”), Gabler (“Survivor 43”), Denise (“Survivor Philippines”), with appropriate clips being shown in the background for each.  As such, he wins the challenge advantage.  

Seems this episode has a thing for combination locks, because they come back in our immunity challenge as well!  They’re also Jake’s advantage, since the numbers are revealed by hurling sandbags into baskets, and Jake starts with two revealed (everyone has a different combination, so peeking off Jake won’t help).  It’s otherwise your standard obstacle course, with the only other point of note being the puzzle at the end.  It’s the Michele Fitzgerald puzzle, first seen on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  You know the one.  It always gets kicked down upon completion.  

This season upholds that tradition.  Austin narrowly wins over Jake, in part due to the latter missing a puzzle piece.  Probst, of course, rubs salt in this proverbial wound, though Austin makes up for it by taking Jake along for the “reward” portion of the challenge, a steak meal at The Sanctuary.  Frankly I’m surprised.  The move certainly makes strategic sense (keep your number one ally with two likely boots to make sure you get the scoop on all discussions), but so lovestruck is Austin, I fully expect him to pick Dee.  

Good for Jake getting some food in him, though.  Like I said at the end of last blog, the man is not completely out of it for winning, but really needs things to go right for him.  And that starts with him playing his idol correctly in order to idol out a threat, preferably Dee.  In order to do this, it’s best if no one (save possibly Katurah) knows about it… And then Jake starts spilling his guts about it to Austin.  Yeah, see why I don’t give this guy great odds?  Worse still is his stated intention to target Julie.  Not a bad one, but again, I think Dee might be the better bet, at least in terms of jury clout.  

Luckily for Jake, Katurah is there to talk him out of it.  She makes a good argument for targeting Dee, and Jake agrees to switch his vote.  After telling Katurah about his idol, the pair agree to draw votes onto Jake, then have their two be a majority with Jake’s negated votes.  

Unluckily for the pair, Austin immediately spills to Dee about Jake’s idol.  Again, great move, dude!  About the only bright spot is that Julie doesn’t believe that Jake’s idol is real, and so is going to stick voting him.  Dee plans to stick on Katurah, the backup plan, leaving Austin in the air.  With votes split this way, even if Austin votes with one of Dee or Julie, you can still get a majority with the idol played correctly.  As long as nothing else goes wrong for Jake.  

But no!  Even Jake’s professed allies cannot be counted upon!  Worried about Jake being flaky (which Jake has many faults in this game, but flakiness is not among them, from what we’ve seen), Katurah makes him swear on his grandmother to vote for Dee.  Because nothing bad has ever happened on “Survivor” when people swear on their grandmother.  

If I haven’t made it clear already, voting out Dee is the correct move for basically everybody.  Gets rid of a jury threat, and while Julie and Austin would lose a close ally, numbers are small enough now that it doesn’t really matter.  Do I think it will happen?  Not with a vote this fractured, but we’ll see.  

Tribal Council is sadly a boring affair pre-vote.  Standard double talk, and not even an honorable mention for fun moment.  That is, until we vote.  The vote is genuinely up in the air, plus there is Jake’s idol to consider.  Say what you will about Jake, but the dude is a showman through and through.  He makes a big deal about his idol play, busting out a Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) impression along the way.  Gotta say, it was a spot-on impression.  Confusingly, he plays it for Katurah.  At this point in the game, I’d have played it for myself, but I guess Jake’s reading the room that votes are going for Katurah?  

If so, he’s reading them badly.  Katurah does get one vote from Dee, eliciting a fun happy reaction from Jake.  Then Jake gets a vote, eliciting a pissed reaction from Jake.  The next two votes, going for Dee and Julie, just elicit confusion, with the final vote going for Julie.  I am sorry to see her go.  She was surprisingly strategic, and brought a certain charm to the proceedings as a whole.  You will be missed, Julie.  

Because having Emily be confrontational right out the gate wasn’t enough fights for the season, we have to squeeze one more in right before the Final Immunity Challenge.  Really, Jake and Katurah need to unite to hope to take out Dee or Austin.  Granted, that just amounts to “Win Final Immunity” at this point, but still, unity would be nice.  Instead, the two start throwing the blame around for why that vote didn’t go the way they wanted.  Jake is upset at swearing on his grandmother and Katurah backing out of it anyway, while Katurah is upset at Jake playing his idol incorrectly, leading to her not voting out the person she wanted gone anyway.  Frankly, both of them come off looking bad here.  Jake, you’re a superfan, you should know what swearing on a loved one means in this game (read, not much).  Yeah Katurah kind of burned you, but this reaction seems over-the-top, and disproportionate to the situation.  Don’t think you’re getting off though, Katurah.  Yes, Jake could have communicated more with you, but that’s a two-way street, so you’re not blameless.  Moreover, you’re in control of your own vote, and if you thought you were going regardless, why not throw a vote on Dee on the way out, just to say you tried.  It’s true you didn’t MAKE Jake do anything (applied a lot of pressure, certainly, but never forced), but by the same token, Jake did not make you do anything either.  Don’t throw your bad moves onto him.  He has enough of his own.  

Really, all this scene does is show the audience more clearly why an anti-Reba movement never really fostered at Belo.  Too much infighting and mistrust for them to work together.  

Our final immunity challenge, like the first immunity challenge, is nothing to write home about.  Stack seventeen bowls, which can be knocked over by wobbling a frame you step through.  Pretty standard challenge at this point, but at least it isn’t “Simmotion” again, so I’ll take it.  

The only major thing of note in this challenge relates, unsurprisingly, to Jake.  He and Dee are the two frontrunners in the challenge, with Austin and Katurah knocking their stack over often.  Jake, however, slips up, leading to the need to recollect his pots.  So many pots that it takes multiple trips.  Jake then gets the idea to walk atop the frame, rather than through it, for a faster time when jostling doesn’t matter.  

What DOES matter is structural integrity, since Probst warns Jake that if he breaks the challenge, he’s out.  Sure enough, a few moments later, the structure snaps, all but assuring Dee’s victory.  Jake’s salty in the moment, but that warning seemed pretty clear, and it looked like Jake had the chance to correct what he was doing.  Would have been best if this had been said before the challenge, but even so, this loss is squarely on Jake.  Probst doesn’t call this out as a “Survivor” first… and rightly so.  Yeah, this is the most blatant it’s been, but there’s been at least one time someone “broke” a challenge, leading to their disqualification.  The final 8 of “Survivor Africa” had an immunity challenge where you had to build a fire to burn a rope.  If you hit the rope with your supplies, you were disqualified.  Brandon did so, and got disqualified.  Good on Probst for remembering at least some of the show’s history, even if he didn’t talk about about.  

Dee wins, in case it wasn’t clear.  Wonder how the long toe helped in this one?  In any case, Dee and her toe must now decide who goes into fire.  There’s not much mystery, since she quickly settles on taking Austin to the end based on their relationship.  Annoyingly, the meta of fire-making being part of one’s “resume” comes up, with both Jake and Austin asking to go into fire.  Katurah’s the only one who resists, perhaps explaining why I like her in spite of some poor strategic moves on her part.  It’s to no avail, however, as Dee is worried about Katurah being a social threat on the jury, the one type of threat I would say Katurah is.  Thus, she wants her out, and believes Jake best-equipped to do it.  

But didn’t Jake almost faint into the fire early on this season?  Not sure he’s the best in fire.  Neither is Austin, who pitches to be put in as being better equipped to take out Katurah. This idea seems to have a bit of merit, as when Austin checks on Jake, the man has no fire, and seems checked out of continuing to try.  A decent-enough misdirect, but Dee’s too smart for that.  With how they’ve been able to get basically nothing going, this would not be enough to put either Katurah or Jake over the top for some jury votes.  Austin is more well-liked and had more agency, so it MIGHT be bad to have him do fire.  

Sure enough, that’s what happens.  Yeah, there’s discussion at Tribal Council, but once again, nothing of merit.  Katurah and Jake go into fire, and while not a blowout victory, Katurah’s repeated smothering of her fire means Jake eventually wins.  Once again, the methodical approach takes off.  Jake finally got his “W”, and he and Probst take a moment to bask in it.  Jake talks about how far he’s come since he was an underconfident 15-year-old.  We then go to Katurah, leading to this conversation:

PROBST: Katurah, what does this game mean to you?

KATURAH: Well Jeff, to me it means I never told anyone I was a lawyer.  

I’m kidding, but only slightly.  It DOES turn into Katurah using this as the lawyer reveal, we get our shocked reactions, and we move on.  

Continuing on the efficiency kick this episode has been doing, we cut between our final three breakfast and “jury speaks” videos.  Our contestants themselves don’t lay out the arguments, instead talking about their relationship with each juror.  Instead, the jurors make the arguments.  Jake overcame the greatest odds to be there, as the only non-Reba to make finals.  Dee was well-liked, and able to maneuver behind the scenes, and Austin was generally the most overtly social of the three.  Which will win out will likely come down to their arguments.  That said, Jake still seems on the outs.  I have to make note that he said “I took myself here.”  Sure, Jake.  Sure you did.

Weirdly, we don’t get opening statements this time.  Perhaps they were filmed but not shown?  Doesn’t really matter this time, as we get some good arguments from all parties this time around, and I’d dare to say the “New Jury Format” is the best it’s ever been!  Sure, it’s still more of a group discussion, and no one’s called up to speak, but every juror asks basically one question, and Probst doesn’t really contribute to the proceedings.  It’s the original jury format without all the showmanship, and a bit less equal speaking time (Emily speaks a bit more than once, and Bruce says basically nothing).  If this is the compromise needed, I’ll gladly take it!

Unfortunately, for all I like this new, balanced format, none of the questions really stand out.  Like I say, it all comes down to the arguments.  Jake gets built up by the jury initially, and really pushes the narrative of him lasting this long.  It’s his best card, and he does a good job arguing it.  

Sadly for him, it’s clear the jury largely see Dee and Austin as the power-players of the season.  Weirdly, the two remain cordial for a good chunk of the Tribal.  Dee gives Austin co-credit on most moves, and Austin argues for Dee better than Dee herself, being the first one to bring up her not bringing him in on the Drew vote.  Austin’s advantages get praised, but so do Dee’s social skills.  When they DO start going after each other, however, it’s tit for tat.  Austin puts a feather in his cap about strengthening the Reba alliance with Emily, Dee brings up bringing in Katurah.  Dee talks about orchestrating Kendra’s ouster, Austin brings up orchestrating Kellie’s ouster.  Back and forth the two go, though Dee does seem to claim a slight edge by noting that Austin told her about the Julie plan the night Emily went home, while she did not do the same for Austin on the Drew boot.  Seems like a close debate between the two, but given this better line of argument coming out at the end, I’d give the edge to Dee.  

The votes reflect this.  Kaleb gives Jake some false hope by calling out “J!” In the voting booth, a la Jonathan Penner’s “DENISE!” On “Survivor Philippines”, but ends up being a Dee vote.  A decently fun call back for the audience, but I’ve gotta imagine a bit hurtful to Jake in the moment.  Credit to this season: It’s not a 7-1 slam-dunk this time.  Indeed, it almost looks like a tie, but it ends up being 5-3 in favor of Dee.  Probably the right call.  Both had their strategic gems, but with how lovesick Austin became toward the end, Dee was clearly the superior choice.  The votes for Austin come from Drew (presumably for being his close ally), Kendra (for being more social/simpatico with Austin), and Bruce (there is no fathoming how Bruce’s mind works, particularly when we don’t hear from him on the jury basically at all).  A solid outcome on what ends up being a great season.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  We still have a couple of things to cover before my summation.  

Our reunion show, despite my preference for the old format, is decently solid.  We hit on most of the topics one would hope to hear about.  Dee and Austin’s relationship.  Emily’s growth.  Kaleb’s shot in the dark play.  All that sort of thing.  One interesting bit is Probst bringing up the fact that Austin was an alternate this season, getting called in last-minute.  A bit of trivia common-knowledge amongst the superfans, but probably not as well-known to the casual audience.  Moreover, Probst talks about some other contestants who were also alternates, bringing up Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) and Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  He notes that there seems to be something successful about being an alternate.  He of course fails to mention that Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”) and Spencer Duhm (“Survivor Tocantins”) were ALSO alternates, and had much less success, but I suppose that doesn’t fit his narrative, and Probst wants to forget that Guatemala exists.  Still, fun trivia for the uninformed.  

Also, next season looks ok.  Seeing the audition video clips is fun, but otherwise nothing to write home about.  I’m not concerned about “Survivor 46”, but I’m not jumping out of my seat to get to it either.  

Really, there’s only two major omissions in terms of what we discuss.  One would be asking about why Little Lulu was such a disaster of a tribe, presumably omitted for the lack of Lulu left, apart from Emily and Kaleb, and another knock against the new reunion format.  The other, which I’m surprised they didn’t talk about, or at least didn’t show, was how Jake would have voted if it HAD been a tie.  He himself seemed a bit unsure, but if I were to speculate, I’d say he’d go Austin.  He seemed closer to working with him than he did with Dee at times.  Still, who knows?

We end off this episode, much like it began, with a whimper.  I’ll save my season thoughts overall for after we check back on my pre-season cast assessment.  As for this episode, it was just ok.  I was never bored or angry at it, but I was never particularly thrilled either.  It came in, did its job adequately and efficiently, and then left.  Not bad for your standard episode, but kind of ho-hum for your big finale.  As such, let us more to the more exciting cast assessment comparison!

Austin: Wrong initially, though I became more right as the season progressed.  He WAS good at using his appearance and demeanor to hide how devious he could be, until his lovesickness got the better of him, and he became the mask, as it were.  

Brandon: My wish came true, even if my prediction didn’t.  In my defense, I didn’t think Brandon would be THAT bad at challenges, and had I known, I’d have given him much worse odds.  Still, unequivocally wrong here.  

Emily: Wrong, and thankfully so.  Her personal growth was a highlight of the season.  

Brando: The closest yet to being right.  His tribe was not the disaster I predicted (though once they started going to Tribal, they kind of ended up that way anyway), but he placed about exactly where I thought he would.  

Hannah: Mostly right, though I didn’t call the quit.  Though really, who could?

Bruce: I nailed his personality, and the reasons he would have an issue with the other players, but partly due to avoiding Tribal Council so long, he lasted much longer than I expected.  

J. Maya: She left for basically the reasons I expected, but earlier than I anticipated.  Partially right on this one.  

Drew: Sort of the opposite sibling to J. Maya.  I again nailed the personality, but Drew lasted longer than I anticipated in spite of that.  

Julie: Flat out wrong.  She had much more game, and was much more tempered in her confessionals, than I had anticipated.  

Jake: Well, I did call him a dark horse to win, and he DID make it to the end.  He had no shot at said end, but even so, I’ll give myself this one.  

Katurah: Wrong, though it would be hard to anticipate the single-minded anti-Bruce focus that arguably tanked her game.  

Kaleb: Dead right, for once this season.  

Kellie: Completely wrong.  Much more of a presence than I expected, and much longer-lasting.  

Sifu: He couldn’t adjust his personality to the others, and was out earlier than I thought as a result.  Another wrong assessment for me.  

Kendra: Yet another for the “right on personality, wrong on time in the game” pile.  

Sean: He may not be the WORST winner pick of “Idol Speculation”, but he’s definitely a top contender.  Again, if I’d known he’d be THAT bad in challenges, I’d probably have changed my rankings.  And again, hard to anticipate a quit.  

Sabiyah: Another of my few right calls this time around.  

Dee: Wrong.  Girl had the skills to back up her talk that I simply did not call.  

And there you have it.  Ranking this season on the heels of “Survivor 44” is a bit interesting, since I would say they have the same flaw.  Namely, one power alliance goes through to nearly the end basically unopposed.  Yet, I found it frustrating then, but don’t mind it here.  A lot of that, I think, boils down to the 90-minute format.  This allowed time for building more decoy winners, and giving us a larger sense of who the cast was and why they did what they did, than 44 could have allowed.  Yes, the last few episodes were a bit of a slog, and knowing the outcome does drag the season down, but everything up through the final seven boot was overall so great that I’d still call this a top-tier season!  That said, it’s the lower end of top-tier due to the Reba 4 never being stopped.  They had more plausible opportunity to be stopped, and their gameplay more subtle, which I think makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow than on 44.  

If you’re curious as to where exactly I’d rank this, I’d put it around the same level as “Survivor 42”, the other “New Era” season I’d consider top-tier.  Frankly I could see arguments for putting one over the other for both sides, and I think it comes down to whether you prefer a season with more developed players all around, but a more predictable outcome, or a more mysterious outcome at the cost of some characters being forgettable.  As someone who puts a lot of emphasis on rewatch value, I’d favor the latter, giving “Survivor 42” the edge, but I would not argue with anyone who prefers the reverse.  

In any case, feel free to let me know what you thought of this season below, as we await “Survivor 46”.  I’ll be taking my break for now, but look for me when the new cast is announced, and the discussion resumes!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 12: The Babysitter’s Club

Yeah.  I went there.  Bet you never thought you’d be seeing me reference THAT franchise in this blog, did you?  Unfortunately I don’t know much about it beyond the fact that it exists, so don’t expect any deep-cut jokes about it here.  Instead, expect another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

Evidently all it takes for me to start messing up repeatedly is to mention how I haven’t been doing just that.  Thankfully these two are quick and relatively minor.  Opposed as their edits might be, it seems that Katurah, despite having little to no chance at winning, speaks for the fans, since she based Final Four Fire-Making last episode.  Conversely, Dee sucked up to the producers, talking about how long the game felt in relation to her budding romance with Austin.  Listen to Katurah, production.  

Our return from the unfortunate ouster of Emily is appropriately enough a somber one.  Eventually the mood is broken by a sarcastic outburst from Julie, the best kind of outburst, and as we’ll see throughout the episode, the best kind of Julie.  Sarcasm does not beget good strategy, however, as it seems last Tribal was where Reba brain cells went to die.  Despite pretty much everyone knowing that Dee must have tipped Julie off, with Drew even saying this is what would happen if Austin let her in on the plan, which they know he did, they still think they can hide being a pair.  Their acting is terrible, which even Dee cops to, but even with brilliant acting, which no one should be buying.  

Shock of all shocks, Austin buys this.  Man really has just become, in the words of Malcolm Freberg (“Survivor Philippines”), “Booty Blind” hasn’t he?  Seriously, Austin, I get wanting to believe the best of Dee, but you have to look at the game objectively at SOME POINT, you know.  Drew looks to have lost the fewest brain cells, as his “mistake” in my eyes is more subjective.  When Julie interrupts the group with a hug and asking for the Reba 4 to come back, he just says that’s a pipe dream.  Fair enough, but he should make at least SOME pretense of considering it, if only to blindside Julie more easily.  

Old Reba may have lost their brain cells, but old Belo hasn’t.  Their stock was low to begin with, but hey, they’re trying.  After an awesome transition from the logo at the end of the intro to the logo of the tribe flag, Katurah gets up early to go idol-hunting, on the grounds that Julie’s idol is likely re-hidden.  Fair enough, but Dee and Austin wake up shortly after.  Realizing what must be going on, they go off after her… Because they don’t want Julie finding the idol.  Um, how does THIS prevent Julie finding the idol?  Granted it’s a good thing to do, and you don’t want Katurah finding it either, but the stated logic and what actually plays out doesn’t make sense.  We then get a repeat of the tension as to whether Katurah will find something before getting found out or not, and in this case it’s not.  She and Austin have a cute-yet-awkward moment, and we move on.  

Drew, being more calm in the morning, talks to Julie about how the Reba 4 are very much still a possibility, which Julie seems to eat up.  Privately, neither of them really believe this, particularly since Julie has the receipts to prove she was turned on first.  When she talks to Dee about going after Drew as “The Mastermind”, Dee is on board.  Good news for Jake and Katurah, as they would likely be swing votes in that scenario.  

Our reward challenge, while unoriginal in being a five-piece slide puzzle, is still fun to watch.  This is mostly just for the middle leg, where we get to see everyone comedically balancing on a barrel in order to grab keys.  Always good for a bit of physical comedy.  Austin ends up crushing this challenge, winning a picnic NOT at The Sanctuary for once, but The Sand Spit.  Probst asks if he’s ever been, which how could he have, and then has Austin pick people to come with.  Austin, still thinking with his crotch, takes Dee, and then ends up taking Katurah so that he leaves behind the people he wants to leave behind.  Real subtle there Austin.  

Ok, joking aside, I actually don’t hate this for Austin at all.  It’s.a bit blatant how close he and Dee are getting, but the logic makes sense.  Take a close ally for strategy, then leave people who won’t strategize behind.  Not to say that Drew and Julie in particular aren’t bitter about it, but in the end they’re more against each other than mad at Austin.  

Thus begins Drew’s stint as babysitter… And BOY does he suck at it!  While it is funny how blatantly everyone talks about this being his job, he then fails by immediately letting Julie and Jake go off together, watching each other.  Perhaps he thinks Julie is still too much on the warpath against Jake for them to strategize, but he’d be wrong.  The two talk about idol hunting, and idol hunting they go.  Jake has a humorous bit where he talks about them “Hunting for Peppers”, only to admit they’re definitely looking for idols.  They don’t find anything, but the scene is at least mildly amusing.  Not hiring Drew as my babysitter anytime soon, though.  

Keeping up the “Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud” theme for this episode, the helicopter taking Austin, Dee, and Katurah to reward (yes, that WAS all the helicopter in the preview was building up to) does the “screw you” flyby, which the group on the beach comments on.  Those in the helicopter do get back at them, by noting how, even at a distance, Drew was obviously pissed.  

You’d hope for some strategy talk on reward, but Katurah quickly realizes she’s the third wheel.  She talks about how she’ll keep her eye in the game, and then we never hear from her again until after the challenge.  Instead, we get a long scene about how Austin and Dee are falling for each other in spite of themselves.  It’s schmaltzy, and I just can’t get into it.  I think the big problem is that, prior to now, the romance was never brought up or emphasized.  Look, Boston Rob and Amber had their fair share of schmaltz on “Survivor All-Stars”, and I wasn’t huge on it there either, but at least it felt EARNED.  By the time we got to this level of open affection, we’d seen them bonding and flirting for a good long while now.  Here?  Two episodes.  Just not the same.  

Not helping matters is that this ends with a contender for worst flashback backstory to date.  Austin talks about overcoming being awkward and not good-looking as a kid.  It barely ties in to what they were talking about, and for me, isn’t on the level of emotion it seems to feel it merits, particularly following on the heels of the heart-rending one from Katurah last week.  Look, everyone has their own struggles, and I don’t want to minimize anyone’s personal journey, but this one just didn’t do it for me.  

Back from commercial, and Jake decides he needs to do something to take the game into his own hands.  To that end, he resumes his idol hunt, using his knowledge of where Bruce found the re-hidden Lulu idol to his advantage.  He finds a clue telling him the idol is in a secret compartment in the raft, a la “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”.  Jake strips down to his underwear, telling us he doesn’t mind since he had to be on his underwear onstage in a college production.  Not sure why Jake feels the need to do this, but I suppose he could have a cover story about preparing to launch the raft, and it gives us a reason to see his goofy print boxer shorts, so I’m not complaining.  

From where the audience sits, the “secret compartment” is very obviously a false end to a bamboo shoot, but to be fair, I feel like it would be tougher to spot on the island itself, and Jake finds it fairly quickly.  Good for him.  I still don’t think it will get him the win overall, since his “goat” status just seems baked in whatever he does, but it’s something to hang his hat on.  A hidden idol helped Maryanne to victory on “Survivor 42”; maybe it can get Jake at least a bit closer.  Probably vaults him above Katurah in my rankings, anyway.  

Probst calls our immunity challenge “original”, but honestly, he’s exaggerating.  This is basically the challenge where you balance a vase on the end of a board with your foot, just replacing the vase with a ball and adding some barriers to the board so the challenge doesn’t end super quickly.  Kind of a “meh” challenge overall.  Not helping matters is that Julie, the de facto target, is out first.  Our challenge comes down to the lovers, Austin and Dee, and I’m honestly surprised Austin doesn’t forfeit for Dee at this point.  Given his amulet to keep him safe, and how lovesick he is, I was sure he’d drop out.  Ultimately a moot consideration, though, since Dee wins anyway.  I blame the toe.  

With Julie not being immune, and receiving every vote at the last Tribal Council, she is naturally the default target.  Jake, however, wants to take the game into his own hands, and pitches to Julie voting out Drew.  She’s on board, and Jake is able to get Katurah on board.  Still, when Katurah suggests looking in Dee as well, Jake shuts her down, going back to his “Force a tie, convince Austin or Dee to flip” plan.  As he himself notes, it’s basically a carbon-copy of his plan to save Kaleb, and that didn’t exactly end too well for him.  Worse still, it’s pointless.  As Julie mentions, Dee was already on board to vote for Drew, and Katurah confirms this independently later.  

Let me be clear: This is the wrong move for Jake and Katurah.  I’m looking at this purely from their perspectives as the swing vote, since obviously Drew and Austin don’t want someone taken out of their pair, and Dee and Julie the same, so they’re obviously going to vote for the person outside their pair, as well they should.  Now, in-game, I get where Jake in particular is coming from.  You want Reba to break up, but you want it to be in the way you orchestrate, not how they choose to do it themselves.  Not just go with the flow.  I get that.  The flaw in this is that, since Dee would be in on it anyway, even voting out Drew won’t come off as a move you orchestrated, but one Julie and Dee orchestrated.  Thus, it comes down to which person to vote off is more of a jury threat, and while Drew is no goat at the end, he’s easier to beat than Julie.  Not to mention that Drew has been more open to work with you, so it keeps more options open for the future.  

Still, Jake and Katurah’s determination, combined with SEVERAL arrogant confessionals from Drew (I wonder if players realize how these will make them look when giving them?), all but guarantees his exit.  So, what could possibly make us doubt?  The same dilemma as last episode, but in reverse!  Now DEE needs to consider whether or not to let AUSTIN in on a plan, especially since Austin has an amulet that could keep Drew safe if he’s clued in.  While this misdirection is as lame as it was last episode, the parallel shots and confessionals when compared to that episode are a nice touch.  

Sadly, not even this is enough to provide good mystery, since unlike with Austin, we never actually see Dee tell him.  Combine this with her being the more openly strategic/less lovestruck of the pair, and there’s no way she told him.  Thus, Drew will go.  At least we get some fun Tribal Council bits out of it.  The babysitting thing is brought up again, along with the return of Sarcastic Julie, the BEST Julie, about how the “Mom” is now getting babysat.  To his credit, Jake also gets in some good snark as well.  But the winner for entertainment has to be Emily, over on the jury.  Overall, this has been a pretty happy-go-lucky jury, always excited to see what happens.  Emily?  Nothing but a death glare the entire time.  Hilarious.  

Austin chooses to play his amulet, which I can’t blame him for.  He plays it for himself, which given his information, I can’t blame him for either.  Unfortunately for him, it was Drew who was targeted, and goes.  Can’t say I’m overly sorry.  Drew wasn’t the worst guy by any means, but his arrogance at times rubbed me the wrong way, and even if it was predictable, it still felt like a deserved exit.  

Probst them informs the group of the move to a new camp, which they seem shocked about for some reason.  Not sure why.  This is a known thing to happen at this point.  “Survivor 44” proved that.

Yeah, sad to say, this episode is not up to this season’s standards.  Nothing but romance and the occasional good bit of sarcasm to recommend it, and the former in particular just didn’t do it for me.  Nearly nonexistent misdirection and overall bad play just mean this episode falls flat in a way not a lot of other episodes this season, outside the quits, really have.  Shame.  Hopefully the finale can do better.  

Before we get there, however, time for my usual “Likely Winnerhood” rankings.  As a reminder, this is where I list the remaining players from most-likely to least-likely to win, based on the game itself.  This is not how likely they ARE to get to the end, but how easily they win in the end, regardless of who they’re up against.  

1. Dee-This spot is usually reserved for the “If they get to the end, they win” person, and this season that can be no one but Dee.  What she has said has gone in terms of boots, and she hasn’t really made enemies.  She was called out as a threat early on, and in spite of this, has managed to largely avoid getting targeted through effective management of relationships.  As long as she doesn’t completely botch her Final Tribal Council answers, she has this in the bag.  

2. Julie-The main thing holding Julie back from the number one spot for me is the “Mama” label.  Much as everyone talks about her as a major jury threat, and much as what we see indicates that’s true, people labeled “Mama” on this show have historically not done well.  Still, if anyone can buck the trend, Julie can.  Nickname aside, she seems genuinely well-liked, and has the Emily boot to her name.  I think she’s in the best spot if she gets rid of Dee, so Julie alone can claim credit for strategic moves the pair made, but we’ll see if she’s willing/able to do that at the end.  

3. Austin-The last few episodes have really made Austin’s end-game stock plummet.  Dude had some strategy to his name, and trinket plays to put on his resume.  But man, he just comes across as a love-struck moron of late.  He still seems fairly well-liked, which is why I don’t have him lower, but he probably wants to sit next to old Belo at the end to have a real shot at this.  Maybe this vote will be a wake-up call for him, but I doubt it.  

4. Jake-Prior to this episode, Jake would have been at the very bottom.  Dude was being dragged along as a goat very clearly, and never had much agency at any vote he was involved in.  He could hold up surviving being the default boot at a number of merge Tribal Councils, but you could say the same for Romeo on “Survivor 42”, and look how well that went for him.  Finding the idol this episode does raise Jake’s stock a bit, and if he can play the end-game perfectly (and I mean Chris-Underwood on “Survivor Edge of Extinction” level perfectly), he MIGHT be able to pull it out, particularly if there’s a lot of anti-Reba sentiment on the jury.  Sadly, this is a tall order, the goat impression is hard to shake off, and I don’t see this jury being particularly bitter.  Not impossible for Jake, but an extremely uphill battle.  Things will have to go exactly right for him to pull this out.  

5. Katurah-The only person I don’t see any scenario to win at this point.  A shame, really, as I probably like Katurah best out of all those left (Julie is a close second).  But when you’re a one-track-mind against Bruce, then do basically nothing to contribute to his ouster?  Unless you’re up against clones of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”), that’s not enough to win, and no one here is that despised.  Sorry, Katurah.  Just not your time.  

Will these predictions be right, or will I look like an idiot once again?  Find out next week in the finale!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 8: Tha Survivah Yahd

Look, I’m not saying Jake was ever trying to hide the Boston in him.  But the longer he’s out there, the more pronounced the accent becomes.  And not just that, we’re getting more “wicked’s” per episode from him at this point.  Give it much longer, and it’s going to become as iconic as Judd Sergeant’s use of “man” on “Survivor Guatemala”.  

But this episode isn’t about Jake.  No, this episode is about Bruce!  Don’t believe me?  Apart from reiterating the split-Tribal twist, and bringing up the Kaleb vote, pretty much the entire “Previously On” segment is about Bruce.  Mostly about how he’s not playing the game well and most people want him gone.  Surely this will have no bearing on the episode, right?

Bruce gets a brief reprieve as we return from our respective Tribal Councils.  There’s not much to discuss with the Sifu vote-out.  Really the only relevant bit of info is Drew saying he was happy he and Emily were in lockstep.  More of a distraction in Jake, who as the odd vote out during Kaleb’s elimination, has some explaining to do.  He takes the… I’ll say UNIQUE tactic of owning what he did, but just saying it wasn’t personal, rather than try and put any spin on it.  Points for honesty, I guess, but you can’t expect Julie, the person he voted for, to take that lying down.  Sure enough, she admits to his face it’s going to be tough for them to work together, though she’s fairly polite in doing so.  At least in person.  Privately, she wants his head on a platter.  Ok, slight exaggeration, but he’s target number one for her, and unsurprisingly so.  

Morning comes, and with it renewed talk of a women’s alliance.  Kendra and Dee seem to be the most gung-ho about it, but all the women (up 6-4 right now), but most everyone seems vaguely interested.  With how paranoid men tend to be the minute women have a numerical advantage over them, the women suspect that the men suspect this plan as well.  Naturally, we then cut to the men discussing tacos.  Ok, that’s pretty hilarious.  

Oh, and who does the women’s alliance want out first, all else being equal?  Bruce, of course!  Because the theme of this episode is going to be “Bruce vs. The World”.  

Speaking of the world, it comes to them in the form of a boat.  Not, in this case, to take them on a journey, but to bring them a table, and baskets with each of their names.  Yes, this is the return of the Auction, last seen, as Probst will let us know, on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, 8 years ago.  This table does not mean the auction itself will take place on the tribe beach, however.  Rather, it’s the first of three tweaks that has led to the auction being brought back.  

You see, unlike past auctions, where everyone starts with an equal amount of money, this time they must race to find several bamboo chutes hidden throughout the jungle, each with some money.  They bring them back one at a time to their individual basket until all are found, and this determines how much money you start with.  Note that each chute contains a different amount of money, but you don’t know how much until you open it, which you can’t do until all the others are found.  Frankly, if it took this to get the auction back without any advantages (the second change Probst tells us of), it’s a worthy sacrifice.  In a vacuum, however, I’m not a fan of it.  It’s very luck-based, difficult to follow, and overall just pointless.  The pre-advantages auction was fine as it was!  Why fix what wasn’t broken when you first implemented it!

Pointless as this scramble may be overall, it does give the show another chance to dogpile on Bruce.  You see, upon finding out the twist described above, everyone dashes off to look for the chutes.  Everyone save Bruce, who takes his time putting his shoes on, then leisurely strolls through the jungle.  Now, normally I’d be in favor of this strategy.  Slow and steady wins the race, after all, and those chutes are easy to miss.  Yet, when everyone else is running, you’d think you could at least manage a light jog.  

Sure enough, Bruce’s strategy is not rewarded when he ends up with only $80, compared to most everyone else who at least got into the triple digits, topping out at Dee’s $900.  Because again, in this episode, Bruce must suffer.  

We get a montage of some past auctions leading us into this one, with some actually pretty deep cuts to “Survivor” lore.  Like sure, people remember things like the fruit bat soup from “Survivor Micronesia” (a point Emily emphasizes when bringing it up as an example of a bad food item), but how many people remembered Cochran licking peanut butter off someone else’s finger on “Survivor Caramoan”?  That may be because most people try to forget “Survivor Caramoan”, but I’m NOT one of those people, and even I forgot that moment for a second or two!  I’d say the montage was pointless, but then again, we DO have a lot of new, post-COVID fans, so perhaps emphasizing the history of the auction is called for.  Then again, a lot of those fans were brought in via “Survivor Cagayan” being on Netflix, and that season DID have an auction, so perhaps not as justified as one might think.  

Before we get to the third new “Twist” of this auction, we should note one slight format change.  I say “slight” because this was KIND OF a thing at auctions before, but is more up front and formalized than previous ones.  In the past, Probst always said the auction would end “without warning”, and that’s the case here as well.  The difference is he names the maximum number of items (15), and draws a rock out of a bag, which he says is numbered 6-15.  The number determines the last item up for bid, which only Probst will know.  So basically the same way it worked before, just with Probst making a bigger show of the “end without warning” part.  

This is relevant because of the THIRD twist added to the auction, and in my subjective view, the worst.  Eliminating advantages from the auction pretty much only helps in my view (I make an exception for “edge in the next immunity challenge” advantages, since those are not as overpowered), and while the scramble for money was annoying and made the auction tougher to follow, long-term it didn’t detract much.  But this?  This breaks the auction all over again.  You see, the person with the most money left at the END of the auction loses their vote at the next Tribal Council.  

Now, on the surface, this might not seem that bad.  After all, it now gives people like Bruce, who can’t get much at the auction, some sort of edge.  And while it is a consequence, it’s not an insurmountable one as Omar proved on “Survivor 42”, plus one that you can use strategy and maneuvering to avoid.  The FLAW in the idea is that there’s no rule against spending all your money at once.  Thus, with a few exceptions, it’s the person with the most money bidding everything they have to make sure they get the item, and get themselves out of the auction, thus saving their vote.  You know, that boring thing we were trying to AVOID by getting rid of the advantages up for bid?  We WANT to see bidding wars!  We WANT to see these dynamics play out!  We DON’T want to see whoever’s the richest just buy up something and be done!  And again, I must ask, WHY?  The auction, as originally implemented, was not broken.  Just go back to that!

But, since I know that Probst and co. are NOT going to go back to the original auction format, I have to assume that losing one’s vote in some way in relation to the auction is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future.  If that is the case, it seems to me there’s a couple of suggestions that could keep it in, while still allowing us to have the bidding wars we want to see/not screwing over the person with the least money to start with if the numbers are drawn wrong.  

Note that while we have the auction back, the food items were not as substantial as they have been in past auctions.  No big meals, no ridiculously large plates of food, no ribs dripping in barbecue sauce (Hi, Woo!).  Honestly, Emily probably got the most substantial item with her charcuterie board and glass of wine, and that’s more due to the size of the plate than anything nutritional.  I’m guessing this is part of the “Deprivation” thing the new era has been going for, but how about this: Offer up exactly ONE really substantial item.  Some major meal, like a 16 oz. Steak and fully loaded baked potato or something along those lines.  Keep it uncovered, but say that whoever wins the bid for what WILL BE the most substantial food at the auction must lose their vote at the next Tribal Council.  Suddenly becomes a risk vs. reward thing.  Can you resist the temptation of a sumptuous meal in order to keep your vote?  It’s asking the question “How much is your vote worth?” Even better, I’d say, than the Beware Advantages.  

And if no one bids on it?  Have Jeff eat it, right in front of them, just to taunt them.  With how many fake outs he pulls this episode, such torment would be perfectly on-brand.  

The other idea for how to implement it is a bit more random, but still preferable to how it’s done here: Make the lost vote a dud item.  Put it up as a covered option when you give players a choice.  They make the wrong choice, they lose their vote.  Yeah, it’s more luck-based than I would like, but like I said, losing one’s vote is not an insurmountable punishment, and it gets us back the bidding wars we so want.  

For all my kvetching above, the auction does have its fair share of funny moments.  I won’t recap everything everybody won, but we do have a number of highlights to go over.  Kendra wins beer and pretzels, which I only bring up since it’s appropriate that the bartender won the explicit alcohol item.  Emily and Katurah get in one of our few bidding wars, with Emily ultimately winning what turns out to be the aforementioned charcuterie board.  Katurah looks very put-out, which could be because Katurah was maxed out on funds at that point, but I choose to believe is because the bid was no longer at $420, and Katurah wanted to reference Ozzy at the “Survivor Cook Islands” auction.  Katurah, incidentally, is our loser of the auction, spending all her money on what turns out to be the whammy item of fish eyes.  Not particularly gross in and of themselves, but these are about the size of one’s face.  Katurah bravely takes a bite, but can’t finish the rest, leading Austin to spend $100 on them.  He doesn’t finish them either, but gets more substance out of them than Katurah did.  He also is the only person to get multiple food items by bidding, since he spends his remaining $600 on a large slice of pizza.  

Not the most dropped by a single person (without pooling money) however.  That honor goes to Dee, with a $900 chocolate milkshake.  Yeah, can’t blame her for that one.  With far and away the most money, she was initially most likely to lose her vote.  Spending it on a tasty, COLD treat when living in the tropical sun?  Makes perfect sense to me.  Kellie managing to correctly predict a Margherita in her items was a nice touch.  Last but not least, Jake ends up spending all his funds on a cake he gets to share with two other people.  He wisely picks Julie and Bruce, the former to mend fences, the latter to maintain his alliance.  I’d say he was making said alliance too obvious, but frankly, everyone left knew at this point.  Might as well be nice to the guy who can’t win squat this auction.  

Speaking of which, yeah, the auction ends just wrong for Bruce.  Emily still had money left, but $20 less than Bruce after her win.  Thus, Bruce has lost his vote for this episode.  Because of course he did.  

Back at camp, it seems the beer wasn’t just appropriate to Kendra’s profession.  Seems she has a deeper connection with the stuff, since she and her biological dad, whom she wasn’t raised with and didn’t meet until her late teens, bonded over the stuff.  Look, I don’t want to take away from Kendra’s personal experience.  Clearly this is a part of her life that really impacted her, and holds a lot of value.  It’s nice to see this part of her character, rather than what we’ve mostly seen so far which largely boils down to “kookiness”.  But these flashback scenes live or die on how naturally they are integrated into the narrative, and this one is tenuous at best.  Even if it’s semi-relevant, the montage of Kendra just DOING STUFF in the game isn’t.  As such, while probably very impactful for Kendra, it just falls flat from the audience.  

Better for her is renewed discussion of the women’s alliance, and how much easier it will be to target Bruce without a vote.  After all, no vote, no Shot in the Dark, so just his idol to worry about.  Before we get too far off Kendra, it IS a bit odd that she’s willing to work with Emily on this after swearing vengeance for the Brando boot.  I guess time heals all wounds?  

Anyway, Kellie in particular is keen to get rid of Bruce, considering him a “ball and chain” with how often the pair are considered “together” despite it being largely one-sided from Bruce, rather than a mutual thing.  Most everyone seems on board, though their is a weak link.  Unsurprisingly, that link is Emily.  She plays along with the alliance to their faces, as one should, but look a bit deeper, and the women’s alliance is not necessarily the greatest thing for her game.  After all, where is she in that alliance but a likely sixth?  She’s never worked much with either Kellie or Katurah, and burned a bridge with Kendra only a couple episodes ago.  It could be argued she’s basically a part of the Reba alliance now, and so might have an in with Dee and Julie.  But then again, her being part of that alliance is more due to her relationship with Drew and Austin, rather than Dee and Julie.  As such, might be better to keep those allies around, particularly as they make great shields.  

Sure enough, Emily informs Drew of the situation, which is probably the smart move for her for the reasons detailed above.  Luckily for the nascent women’s alliance, Drew doesn’t actively plan to do anything about it.  Seems hating on Bruce is not just for the women, as Drew is ok with using them to get rid of Bruce at this juncture.  In a brilliant move, he stages a conversation with Katurah that leads her to thinking it’s all her idea, with him and the rest of old Reba reluctantly going along with it.  It’s brilliantly done, and helps hide what fractures there are in that alliance quite well.  And hey, it piles on Bruce some more, so it’s on-theme for this episode.  

Our immunity challenge is nothing to write home about.  Tribe members hold up bundles of bamboo by a rope, which they must move further back on (indicated by knots) at intervals.  Drop the bundle, or step off the platform while holding it up, or bend one’s arm (the latter of which I’m not sure how they enforce without having an intern standing next to each player), and you’re out.  First seen on “Survivor Samoa”, really the only innovation this challenge has is that dropping your bundle now smashes a pelican-head statue.  Coincidentally, this challenge was co-designed by Osten Taylor (“Survivor Pearl Islands”).  

Point being, bog-standard endurance challenge.  Barely of note.  However, it’s also time for the now season-requisite rice negotiations.  Emily and Dee step off, the first two of four that Probst wants.  Not surprising for either of them.  Neither seemed in danger of going home, and as Dee’s toes were unlikely to be a help, neither of them seemed likely to win this challenge.  When no one else seems to want to step off, however, Probst puts on his mean-host hat, and KNIFES THE FREAKING BAG OF RICE SO IT STARTS SPILLING OUT!  It may seem like I’m attacking Probst here, but I kind of love it.  It’s a striking image, that returns Probst to his more aggressive roots, which is fun to see.  Drew and Katurah quickly agree to sit out, meaning a minimum of rice is lost.  Again, pretty logical sit-outs.  Neither seemed in real danger this episode.  

Despite Jake’s complaints, and his difficulty not bending his arm, most everyone lasts a good while in this challenge.  It’s only Bruce and Julie left at the end, quite impressive for the only two players over 40 this season.  That said, this matchup means it’s obvious who wins.  Literally no one but Bruce has been mentioned as a target this episode.  It’s like the Roger boot on “Survivor The Amazon”: There’s no plausible other target, so might as well just dog-pile on the boot and have a fun journey.  Plus, Julie has been playing this challenge smart, keeping her hand just below the last knot for extra leverage, rather than just above the next knot for better grip.  This strategy will surely lead to victory, which is why Bruce wins immunity!  Wait…

Yeah, I’ll give credit that I didn’t see this coming, and the montage of confessionals we get afterward of everyone being frustrated while Bruce is just gleeful is hilarious.  That said, this episode has practically ONLY been about Bruce so far, and we’re now 2/3 of the way through, approximately.  Everything was set up for Bruce to go.  The fact that he can’t, while a blindside of the audience, basically makes the first 2/3 of this episode, oh, what’s the word… ENTIRELY POINTLESS!  Yeah, apart from some humorous moments, and one or two strategic insights, NOTHING that happened so far has any bearing on the outcome!  And you know how I feel about showing us pointless things.  Why do you think “Survivor Edge of Extinction” is my least-favorite season?

Still, with Bruce now safe, new targets need to be quickly established.  In the last 30 minutes of the episode.  But not bitter, not bitter.  Jake is the next logical target, since he and Bruce are seen to be quite close.  Julie is of course all on board for this after the last Tribal Council, but Kellie is the one really pushing for it, since again, she fears the target blowing back on her.  

Of course, Jake will need a fake story, and so Kellie and Emily talk with him at the water well, trying to get him to throw out a name.  They do this pretty masterfully, but even so, Jake sees through what they’re doing.  As such, he correctly deduces the target has moved to him and starts frantically searching for an idol.  Like Sifu before him, old Reba takes notice.  Drew, however, uses this as a reason to want to keep Jake around, at least for tonight.  Even if Jake doesn’t find an idol, there’s still the Shot in the Dark, and Bruce could also choose to play his idol on Jake.  The last option I feel is a bit far-fetched, but I’m not going to blame people for at least considering the possibility.  As such, Drew brings Kellie’s prophecy to bear, and suggests going for her as the safe boot.  Most of Reba+Emily seems to be on board, with Julie being the most strong objection, and Dee backing her up.  

These past few episodes have had decisions that have no real bad choice.  Sub-optimal plays, but good overall either way.  This is not one of those.  Getting rid of Kellie is clearly the superior choice.  The thing with Jake is that, while he’s not shown a willingness to work with you, basically no one is willing to work with HIM in return.  Kellie is the one with the connections and the social game to get things done, and actually upend your game strategically.  Plus, she seems to be decently liked, while Jake’s social capital appears to shrink by the day.  Jake is an easy boot who, if he makes it to the end, has little shot at winning.  Kellie could easily slip by, and with a few smart strategic moves, she’s your winner.  Much better to get her our, with Bruce unavailable.  Plus, if you’re Austin, getting out Kellie powers up your amulet to a full idol, though he wisely doesn’t remind people of this fact.  

Another thing this episode has that others this season do not is a Tribal Council that’s actually entertaining!  We start off with discussion of the rice negotiations, with everyone getting sarcastic with Jeff over knifing the rice bag.  We even see the return of “Blunt Emily”, who outright tells Jeff they’re pissed about that.  Jake is our dissenting voice hear, disputing the claims of altruism.  He denies there’s such a thing on “Survivor”.  Rafe from Guatemala would dispute that, I’d say.  

Still, it’s really Jake’s spotlight now.  He state that he knows he’s likely a target, but beyond that, the elements get to him a bit.  Dude can’t string together a coherent sentence, at least not without some time to gather himself.  When he does, he gives a decently strong argument about how dogpiling on him doesn’t benefit the person on the bottom.  He even uses his sudden speaking problems to his advantage, “letting slip” the idea he might have an idol.  I use quotes here because I don’t feel like that was a natural slip-up from Jake, unlike most of the rest of them.  I think this was hi8m seeing how he was talking, and using it to his advantage, faking another slip-up to imply that him saying he has an idol is truthful.  If so, good move on him.  

He isn’t truthful, of course.  He plays his Shot in the Dark, which I honestly can’t blame him for.  He was a likely target, and his vote would make no difference.  Might as well use it.  He asks for some of Kaleb’s luck, asking him to blow on it, but he ends up “Not Safe” nonetheless.  Luckily, Reba decided to make the smart decision to vote out Kellie.  

Despite it being indisputably the correct move, at least from what we see, I’m torn on Kellie’s exit.  On the one hand, she clearly takes it HARD.  She buries her head in her hands when the votes for her start coming.  You can see her worst fears written across her face as she gets vote after vote.  She gets hugs from her former Belo members, but spurns Reba, in particular being mad at Austin, who takes credit for the move, and Emily, who tells her it’s because she was playing a good game.  She’s so discombobulated, she even forgets to bring up her torch initially.  All this, combined with heartfelt final words, can be kind of painful to watch, especially for someone who, even if they weren’t the biggest character, were a good strategist, which is always a tough person to lose.  On the other hand, it’s nice to FINALLY get a reaction to leaving other than the bland congratulations we so often get in the new era.  Add onto that, as I said, Kellie not being a particularly big character this season, and ultimately I’m pretty satisfied with the result.  

This episode really defies easy categorization in terms of “like” or “dislike”.  The first hour being pointless REALLY left a bad taste in my mouth.  That said, that last half-hour was incredibly tight and well-edited, and this episode had arguably the best Tribal Council of the season, at least in terms of the boot’s reaction.  All positives, but I’m not sure it’s enough to overcome that big early deficit, especially when said early deficit contains a lackluster auction.  I guess it’s better than the nothingburger we got last episode, but still, show, you can do better.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 5: Stop Global Worming

KENDRA: Hi everyone!  It’s Kendra!  I hope you don’t mind me taking over the blog today, but I just happened to come across the open word document, and thought “This would be a really great platform to talk about a major issue!”  So that’s what I’m gonna do!  You know when it rains, right, all the worms come up out of the ground and just kind of end up flopping around out there?  Well, that means they get stepped on, or run over!  And that’s terrible!  I mean, worms are a great source of protein we shouldn’t just be letting that go to waste!  Oh, but don’t worry if you can’t get one down.  Everyone’s eating tastes are different…

ME: What are you doing?

KENDRA: Oh, is this your blog?  Sorry, I just happened by, and couldn’t help myself.  Had to talk about the very important issue of Global Worming.  

ME: You mean “Global Warming”?

KENDRA: What you said is bad too, but I meant what I said.  It’s an issue, and I’d like to use your platform to raise awareness.  

ME: Inane as that is, I’m actually not mad.  

KENDRA: Really?

ME: Yeah.  You just happened to wander by and didn’t do structural damage to my house, for once.  More than I can say for a lot of past players I’ve met.  And even if your issue is… Unusual, at least you’re trying to do a good thing in the world.  Use my blog as your soapbox.  Say what you need to say.  

KENDRA: Great!  Then let me talk about aliens, which are definitely real…

ME: Out!  Now!

Ah, even with the aliens talk, still happy that I got my seasonal “Contestant breaks into my house” moment on the blog out of the way in a really harmless manner.  While I bask in that joy, you all can have another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

I really don’t know how I managed it, but I actually somehow forgot to talk about my overall thoughts on last episode.  It was definitely a step down from some of the previous ones, mostly due to quits often being kind of a wet fart, as I said in episode one, and another Lulu member going just being dull at this point.  That said, the misdirection and mystery were still top-notch, and the switch really breathed more life into the season, so overall, still happy.  

Less happy is the new Reba.  Both Dee and Sifu received votes last time, and while I will give Sifu credit that he tries his best to tone down his reaction (the most he says is “That was a surprise”), his tone and his looks make it clear that, as Dee says, he’s not happy.  Though if Sifu’s handling of the whole thing is not idea, Dee’s is even worse.  She just leans back and says she doesn’t want to talk about it, which both makes her look guilty (which, admittedly, she is), and prevents her from controlling the narrative.  Speaking of narration, she narrates that Tribal Council couldn’t have gone worse.  Sean’s effective quit meant that she showed her hand too early in regards to Sifu, while reaping none of the benefit.  Can’t say Dee’s analysis is inaccurate here.  

Conversation about the vote does eventually start up, despite Dee’s objections.  All three women lie and say they voted Sean, claiming Sean himself was the rogue Sifu vote.  It’s what they have to do to save their skins, though one of them needed to claim the Dee vote that was shown, which none of them do.  Turns out, though, that Sifu doesn’t even need that to call out the lie.  Apparently the last thing Sean said on the way out was that the rogue vote wasn’t him.  Julie in particular is upset about this, describing it as Sean throwing “a grenade” on his way out, and rescinds some of the comments about his good vibes.  I’m sure this will in no way add fuel to the fire of vitriolic online discourse directed at Sean.  

Speaking of which, let me get on my own soapbox for a second: I get being mad at Sean.  I get being unhappy about his quit.  I may have my piece with it, but that doesn’t mean I respect the move.  Be mad.  Be unhappy.  That’s the show getting a reaction out of you.  But don’t take it out on the guy personally.  Better he be the forgotten person of the season than to be personally attacked in real life.  Critique the tv characters all you wan’t, but don’t cross the line into real-world attacks.  These people don’t deserve it just because they made moves in a game that you disagree with.  

Morning at the new Belo brings talk about how hungry everyone is.  Austin in particular is fantasizing about food.  Now, I’ve never been one to get on the “These people are wimps; 26 days is nothing!” train.  I fully acknowledge that it’s still tough, particular on someone like Austin who is probably very physically active IRL, and thus has a higher caloric intake.  When it comes to new era changes, yeah I don’t LIKE the move to 26 days, but there’s bigger fish to fry there, if you catch my drift.  But I will say that compared to previous seasons, this level of starvation DOES seem a mite excessive for what they’ve done so far.  Not saying they aren’t hungry, not saying they shouldn’t complain about it or fantasize about food, but suck it up a little, you know?

Luckily for them, Kendra spots another likely food source in a worm, one not eaten by a crab this time!  Kendra kind of already talked about the worm incident when she took over my blog, so I’ll spare you the play-by-play.  My recurring thought during this segment, however, was “Why didn’t you wash the worm?”  Look, you want to eat a worm on “Survivor”?  Fine, I see the logic.  But run a bit of water over it first!  I doubt dirt and/or sand has enough nutritional value to merit putting up with the terrible taste.  Hell, I’d even go so far as to attribute Kendra’s inability to eat the worm to said lack of washing it off.  Clean your worms, kids!  

This segways into people talking about Kendra.  In contrast to what he said about Emily, Dean notes that Kendra is EXACTLy the kind of “kooky yoga mom” he thought she would be, but is at least happy that she and Brando seem not to work well together.  Brando confirms this, noting that he and Kendra were not particularly close on original Belo, but does try to solidifying things with her, in the hope of swaying Emily.  Hope that will be difficult to achieve, since Kendra then talks about astrology and aliens.  Oh, don’t get me wrong, Emily puts on a brave smile, but you can tell inside she’s thinking “Get me away from her right now!”

Things are a bit more serious over at Little Lulu.  Surprising, given that Bruce is continuing his comedy schtick, calling Jake a “lazy ass”.  Things take a much more serious turn when Jake, getting up to go help with camp chores, suddenly collapses like he did a couple episodes ago.  Kellie, the nurse, takes the time to clarify that this is due to a sudden change in blood pressure.  Jake insists he’s ok, and doesn’t want medical, which hey, good for him for toughing it out, though he’s playing a bit risky that way, IMO.  

Jake then takes us to a segment where he talks about his former binge eating issues, and losing a bunch of weight, complete with flashback pictures.  As I’ve said before, I normally don’t mind these segments, as long as they’re done when they’re a natural tie-in to what’s being talked about in the show.  To be fair, this is one of the better-connected flashback segments, so I don’t outright dislike it.  That said, I feel like they’re leaning too hard into making this a feel-good story.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad Jake achieved the goals he personally wanted for himself, and props to him for putting in the work to get there, but I feel like just him talking about it, without the pictures, might have been more effective.  This feels a bit too close to exploitative for my taste.  

After commercial, we actually end up staying at Little Lulu once again.  Everyone else has gone off looking for supplies to Katurah, realizing that she’s kind of on the outs of the group, decides to go idol hunting just to be safe.  I will applaud her skills, as she both knows to look in the significant-looking trees, and is smart enough to poke a stick into holes first.  That said, her bluffing skills leave much to be desired.  Kaleb spots her and calls out, so she quickly throws away her idol-hunting stick.  A bit obvious, and not helped by the fact that when asked what she was doing, she says she was hunting for papaya in the most obvious lying voice I’ve yet heard on the show.  Things are looking bad for Katurah.  At least she shows us a fun new way to wear buffs.  Don’t think I’ve seen anyone use their leg before.  

Much better positioned on this tribe is Kaleb, who manages to stay on Katurah’s good side by saying he was calling out to make sure she wasn’t found out by the idol hunters, rather than to alert them.  Katurah buys it, and admittedly it may be true.  Kaleb is a charmer, and has managed to stay on everyone’s good side, though he notes the one person on new Little Lulu that he hasn’t really connected with deeply is Kellie.  Kaleb sets out to change that by telling her about Sabiyah’s idol.  Can’t really fault that move.  Sharing a secret is a good way to build a bond, and that information doesn’t really hurt Kaleb if it’s out there.  If others find out, they might be pissed Kaleb didn’t tell them, but on a tribe with such a strong Katurah/Bruce divide, I see little chance of that happening.  

Over at Reba, Sifu is, shock of all shocks, still mad about the rogue vote he received!  He’s getting less and less subtle about it, admitting in a confessional that he doesn’t buy the women’s story, and is trying to suss out which of them dared to vote against him.  In service of this, he constructs a pretty decent-looking fake idol.  It’s never going to be confused for Bob’s work on “Survivor Gabon”, but hey, that’s the gold standard of fake idols we’re talking about here.  Sifu’s work is quite good-looking.  I don’t think he sells it the best, but given that the women had already primed themselves to believe he had something, how he pitches it really doesn’t matter that much.  I’d dock the women some points for not recognizing that Austin finding something (which only J. Maya shouldn’t know about at this point) means Sifu probably doesn’t have anything, but with how many advantages the new era hands out, I really can’t blame them.  Dee somehow segways this into talking about the hardships her family had coming over from Cuba.  Again, hardly the worst of these flashback segments we’ve gotten over the past couple seasons, but again, a bit forced.  Probably would have worked better without the photos.  

Nerd is the word over at Belo, as Emily, Brando, and Drew get to discussing Pokemon, in particular shiny hunting.  It makes my little Pokemon-loving heart jump for joy.  It also reveals Drew as the Antichrist, as he admits to hacking his game.  Here, Brando pitches that he’s not as close with Kendra, and is willing to cut her if need be, but also suggests a “Nerd Alliance” for the three.  

Drew says no.  Drew, I may need to revoke your “Smart Card” for that.  

I mean, this is “Survivor” 101: You say yes to every proposed plan!  Having more options is always, ALWAYS better than cutting them off!  If you really don’t think you can commit, just give a vague statement like “That sounds like a plan” without actually agreeing!  It’s simple, basic gameplay!  How is this beyond you?

In Brando’s mind, this just reinforces the Reba/Belo split.  Luckily for him, despite Austin and Drew seeming to get to Emily first, she seems to be more inclined to work with them now.  She says it’s because they seem to have the numbers right now, which I have to tilt my head at a little bit.  Original Belo and original Reba both have equal numbers right now.  As you’ll put it later, from a qualitative standpoint, they’re equal.  This is NOT a reason to want to work with the original Belo.  

That said, to save myself some time later, I’ll discuss here why I think going with original Belo would still be the right move for Emily.  From her perspective, they’re more obviously fractured than original Reba.  Brando, as mentioned, has at least floated the idea of sacrificing Kendra, something neither Drew nor Austin has floated in regards to an original Reba.  This implies there would be cracks Emily could use to move herself up in the pecking order, more so than what Drew and Austin are presenting at this time.  Further, while she doesn’t know the dynamics of the other tribes, she DOES know that Sean left on a tribe with all original Reba.  Granted, he quit, but Emily can’t know that yet, and it reinforces the idea that “Reba Strong” is much more of a thing than “Belo strong”.  Add onto that her presumably wanting to continue to work with Kaleb come the merge, and original Belo are literally everyone else he’s with, and there’s a lot of upsides to her for swinging that way.  

With all those points, however, it should be noted that Emily really has no bad choice here.  She’s the proverbial kingmaker either way, and it’s just her determination of what will set her up better in the long-run.  I’d say Belo is overall the better choice, but there’s a strong argument for Reba.  That said, it can’t be fully discussed until later, so I’ll hold off on that argument for now.  

Bruce’s comedy hour remains ongoing at Little Lulu, but it’s not landing quite as funny as it was at first.  Katurah, not one to shirk an opportunity to put down Bruce, describes this as him brining the crazy after a few days of settling in.  I’d be inclined to just put this down to Katurah having a chip on her shoulder yet again, but we DO see Bruce doing some objectively annoying things.  Notably, he’s a bit rude when Katurah suggests an idea.  Maybe that’s just because it was her idea, and she’s made no secret that she wants him out.  Then again, he’s also a bit rude to Kaleb when he suggests talking through how to do a camp chore before actually doing it, asking if they’re going to talk about doing it, or actually do it.  Hearkens back to the very first episode of “Survivor Borneo”, with Sue shouting at Richard about the corporate world not working out in the bush.  A bit less justified in Bruce’s case.  The conversation hadn’t even started, and Kaleb was just trying to get consensus.  Could take five minutes, tops.  Nothing to get so worked up about.  Kaleb does seem annoyed by this, so perhaps Katurah is not as out of it as she thought.  

The witch hunt of Reba is at an end, as Sifu has made his determination: J. Maya was the vote against him.  Completely wrong, but points for trying.  J. Maya, to her credit, decides that she’s going to use this, playing up to Sifu that this is what she did so that he’ll think she’s on the outs, and won’t play his idol.  Decent plan, if a bit risky.  The flaw in said plan is that J. Maya doesn’t realize she was on the bubble with the women pre-swap, who note that if they lose again, it might be easier to just get rid of J. Maya.  It makes sense.  You keep your challenge strength, plus a high profile target come the merge, while sating the rage of Sifu, and again, I don’t think Drew or Austin are going to be upset about a J. Maya exit.  Not so good for J. Maya, though.  

First, Reba will have to see how they do in our challenge for the episode, which frankly sucks.  You run through an obstacle course to get keys to unlock a pole to get down sandbags to shoot targets.  We’ve seen it all before.  The trapdoor is slightly cool, but that’s about it.  At least each tribe has had good content, so there’s some mystery as to who will win.  In addition to immunity, first place gets 10 fish, and second place 5.  

Despite new Belo being favored to lose, as this challenge is puzzle-less and their strength is in puzzles.  There’s a decent bit of back and forth, but Drew is slow on untangling the rope, so lose they do, with Reba taking first place.  But hey, there’s still about half the episode left, so the buildup to Tribal Council must be pretty interesting!  Or, you know, it could be another damn journey.  Guess which one it is, bearing in mind that one option is interesting interpersonal dynamics, and the other one is a journey.  

At least the dynamic of who goes gives us a hilarious misplay.  As winners, Reba gets to select who will go, one from each tribe.  J. Maya gets randomly selected to go, but also becomes the spokesperson for why, which may not have been the wisest choice.  Kellie is selected to go from Little Lulu, with the justification being that she was visibly frustrated due to sitting out the challenge.  Fair enough, a plausible explanation that keeps your cards close.  No, it’s the selection of Austin from Belo that’s the problem.  Most likely he was selected as an original Reba to help get out information of the tribe dynamics there.  J. Maya justifies his pick by saying exactly that.  You know, the OPPOSITE of keeping your cards close.  Way to not seem “Reba strong” there.  

Before we get to our journey, Belo decides to try “orderly scrambling” with everyone doing what will later be described as a “speed dating” thing to round-robin with everyone.  While Emily and Kendra agree to target Drew (presumably due to smarts but a not-so-great challenge performance today, plus original Reba), Brando takes a play from Emily’s book and offers Drew his shot in the dark in exchange for targeting Kendra instead of him.  He doesn’t do it as well.  Drew refuses him, and notes that it makes him suspicious of Brando, and tells Emily as much when she comes back.  When it’s time for Emily and Brando to talk (Brando and Kendra just re-confirm targeting Drew, and evidently Kendra and Drew had nothing of note to discuss), Brando lies and says Drew brought up targeting Kendra.  Emily, at least for the moment, believes this, giving more credence to the going-with-Belo theory.  

Off to our journey at last, our threesome climb a mountain, and find a choice at the top.  Majority rules by vote: They can either get a sandwich apiece, or they can each get an advantage with a catch: All advantages remaining in the game must be used together.  All three just make an extra vote, two make a steal a vote, and last one standing makes an idol.  If that’s sounding familiar, it’s because the “Advantage Amulet” has made a return, after being last seen on “Survivor 42”.  Like I said there, I’m happy it’s here.  I’d have preferred no journey at all, but if we WERE going to have one, this is a good option to have at the end of it.  It’s not too overpowered, unless you’re the last one standing without anyone else knowing, and it creates a fun duality where you’re both incentivized to work with these people, lest they spill the beans on what you have, but also wanting to get rid of them to gain more power for yourself.  It’s a fun dynamic, and I’m happy to see it back. 

Austin, however, is not happy, just wanting to take the food and be done with it.  J. Maya is all in on the advantage, however, and while Kellie is waffling, Austin can see that she’s leaning advantage, so relents and agrees.  Probably the right decision.  You don’t want to rock the boat, and however hungry you are, one sandwich isn’t going to provide that much of an edge, particularly with no challenge imminent.  

Don’t think that Austin will forget this, however.  He agrees to the partnership same as the others, but privately feels like the advantage is nothing worthwhile, and swears to get the other two off.  

Good thing he has something to talk about, as things are not looking good for him and Drew.  Between her trying to be nicer, and her conflicted feelings about having so much power, she admits to Drew that she thinks he lied about his conversation with Brando.  You know, Emily, there is such a thing as being TOO honest.  Luckily for her Drew doesn’t hold a grudge and try to get her out a la what Rob Cesternino did to Christy Smith on “Survivor The Amazon”.  Instead, when Austin returns and spins a tale about them needing to haul coconuts up and down a mountain to get something and failing (a plausible lie, assuming J. Maya or Kellie don’t call him on it), he comes clean to Drew about what he has.  Sensing he’s potentially in trouble, Drew tells him to tell Emily, which he does.  Emily admits this changes her equation slightly, and also admits that while she finds Drew a bit sketch, she does feel really close with Austin.  

I said we would talk about the argument for going with Reba, and now we have all the facts, to let’s dive in.  From Emily’s perspective, the reason to go with Reba is twofold: Firstly, they’ve offered her more blatant power than Belo has, with them letting her pick the target in the last episode.  While Belo has been making it a conversation about who should go, rather than a decree, there’s a difference between that and offering someone that much power.  Granted, Belo could easily have made the same offer and we just didn’t see it, but by that same token, Drew and/or Austin could have let her know about the Sifu split, proving to her that Reba is fractious as well, and getting us back to square one.  Even the “Kaleb bond” thing evens out, since he presumably told Emily about linking with Drew on his raid in episode 3.  

Secondly, Reba has all the advantages, while we’ve never seen Belo find anything.  This makes them more threatening, but also makes taking them out with lower number difficult.  Austin revealing this advantage in particular is helpful, as it proves to Emily that Austin will have an incentive to cut at least J. Maya, and now she has leverage she can use against him if need be down the line.  A more even decision overall, and like I said, there really is no bad choice.  I think on the whole I’d still say it’s better to side with Belo, since they have more known quantities for her at this point, but again, won’t fault any decision.  

Good thing there’s mystery as to who Emily will choose, because Tribal is a snooze fest!  All the worst excesses of the new era are back, even the metaphors!  Emily talks about using quantitative versus qualitative reasoning.  Not the worst one of these I’ve heard, but I just have an aversion to them on principle at this point just due to their overuse.  Other than that, it’s posturing from old Reba and old Belo about who Emily should go with.  If I’m looking for something nice to say about it, Emily being literally smack dab in the middle was some nice, if obvious, cinematography.  

Like I said, really no bad decision here, though in my view, Emily makes the slightly worse one.  Brando goes home, and while the dude seemed nice, and I loved the Pokemon talk, I’m not overly sorry.  Dude just didn’t pop on screen, and didn’t seem like that innovative of a strategic force.  Then again, apart from Emily (and Austin, a bit), I’m not a huge fan of anyone on this tribe, so I wasn’t going to be upset since neither of them were in real danger.  Also, while he and Drew managed to spare most of their advantages, Austin did end up using Kaleb’s goodwill advantage to get his vote back while increasing his idol’s lifespan.  Understandable, given how close the vote was.  

Despite the tense vote, this episode is the first true “dud” of the season in my view.  There’s nothing terrible about it, but most of the tribe dynamics gave us nothing new to look at, and the forced backstories and journey ate up time that could have been spent on just regular camp life.  Look, this is hardly a bottom-tier episode, and I’m still loving this season overall, but this is a lull in quality.  

Hopefully the “mergeatory” gets us back on track, but since I just had to type out that stupid name for the stupid twist, somehow I doubt it.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 3: Chain Gang

Writing a blog about the latest episode of “Survivor 45” here, boss!

What, not every introduction is going to be some long diatribe.  Brevity is the soul of wit, you know.  

Once again, we start off with what is basically a “Previously On..” segment, even if we don’t get Probst narration telling us that.  Unlike last weeks, which was a time-sink but otherwise unobtrusive, this one is bad in that it spoils the outcome of the episode.  While we’ve had a bit of the alliance dynamics of each tribe, ONLY Belo’s is highlighted.  Sure, we get what we need to understand Little Lulu’s move last episode, but nothing deeper than that, and Reba only gets Austin’s idol hunt, not any of the alliance-forming that went with it.  The only logical conclusion is that Belo must lose, so they’re reminding us of their dynamics in advance.  I mean, I SUPPOSE they could be pulling a fast-one, and this is a fake-out, but what are the odds of that?

Getting into the new content, everyone is, of course, relieved to have survived another Tribal Council.  Sabiyah notes how different the game mentality is from the Marines, where Brandon was just too much of a liability to keep around, where in the Marines “No One Gets Left Behind”.  A good bit a character we don’t see as much in the modern day, but relief quickly gives way to strategy.  

Emily couldn’t help but notice that Brandon was voted out with only two votes, something mathematically abnormal if there were four votes as she thought (Brandon’s inability to vote being a known quantity).  She correctly pegs Sabiyah as the one most likely to have an advantage, and asks if this is the case.  Sabiyah denies this, and Kaleb comments that while Emily is getting better, she’s still going and picking fights with the one person she SHOULDN’T be doing that with.  While I take his overall point, I have to admit Kaleb’s being a little harsh here.  Yeah, Emily’s still a bit blunt, but she’s asking rather than declaring, and doesn’t make a big issue out of it.  She’s allowed to ask questions, and she was not particularly abrasive in doing so in this case, at least compared to previous instances.  

Hell, even Sabiyah is not particularly put-out by Emily doing so.  She admits that she and Emily are from different worlds and have different ways of thinking, but also says it isn’t personal.  Honestly, a good, mature way to go about it, and a way to have conflict remain in the show without it becoming uncomfortable for a modern viewing audience.  Well done, show/casting.  

This leads to Sabiyah giving Emily back her shot in the dark, and the pair saying that trust has been built.  Given that it’s now clarified that the shot in the dark IS transferrable, I’m kind of amazed Emily wasn’t the boot, but if she’s going to stay, better to give it back and avoid those fireworks.  All that said, I’m sure this grudging respect from Sabiyah is just misdirection, and will have NO bearing on the episode whatsoever.  Unlike the preview saying Belo will lose.  No way that’s wrong.  

Morning over at Belo, and we see Jake’s promised collapse.  This ultimately comes to little physically.  Dude basically had happen to him what happened to [redacted] on “Survivor The Australian Outback”: Deprivation plus exhaustion combined with smoke in the face equals a faint.  Thankfully he manages to not do so directly into the fire, so he’s fine.  

It does give Kendra, the one all about girl-power, an excuse to talk to him, and the pair admit that they haven’t really talked much, something Jake takes on himself.  They seem to be simpatico personality-wise, and this leads Kendra to tell him about their targeting of him.  Ok, even leaving aside whether this is a wise idea, it’s a BIG load of hypocrisy coming from Kendra to tell Jake “I’m coming here with an open mind.” when she has been the single biggest proponent of “The women are sticking together no matter what” on this tribe.  Go ahead, expand your options, but maybe don’t do so quite so blatantly and hypocritically, Kendra.  

Over at Reba, they discover that two worms they had been saving in a pot have been eaten by a crab.  They are, for some reason, disappointed by this.  Eat the damn crab.  I guarantee it’s tastier, and has at least as much meat on it as two worms, if not more.  Ok, maybe they were saving the worms to fish, but then either A: Get more worms; they can’t be THAT hard to find, or B: Use the crab meat as bait.  It should work better, if anything.  

As a side note, this blog was very nearly titled “Eat the Damn Crab”.

Talk quickly turns to idols, however, as Austin and Drew think they’ve found the “palm tree x” they need, and idol fever has taken over their minds.  They want to find it so badly, but they just can’t wait until the opportune time.  They agree to keep watch over each other while the other digs, but frankly they do a poor job of it.  Dee and Julie happen to be walking by and notice Drew digging.  Not being idiots, they quickly realize that Drew is keeping something from them.  This gets Dee’s hackles in particular up, but they do their best to play it cool as they pass by, asking if he’s looking for coconuts.  Drew, also not being an idiot, doesn’t try to deny that he was digging, and instead plays it off as him digging where he saw Sifu dig.  About the best lie he can come up with, and while the foursome are still working together, Dee and Julie definitely are keeping their eyes open.  

We then cut to… A reward challenge?  In this era?  Indeed, it’s the “Heather Aldret” challenge from back in “Survivor 41”, just starting in the water this time, and with a slightly different ending.  Tribes run from the water to shore, where they have to one at a time toss a ball onto a chute.  They then run under the chute, which has trip-wires, to try and catch the ball at the other end.  Once four balls have been caught, one by each player, they toss a ball to lower a ring target, where they must then land three rings to win reward.  Both first and second place win a certain amount of fruit, with first place also getting to loot one item from another tribe’s camp.  This is definitely a smaller-scale challenge, but it’s got some nasty bits here and there, leads to some good faceplants from the trip-wires, and I did get a weird joy out of the lowering mechanism for the ring target, so I’ll give this a pass.  

Some people from Reba and Belo are shocked to see Brandon gone from Little Lulu.  Um, did they watch the same challenges we did?  Like, I get that teams are competing, but surely SOME of them saw Brandon’s epic fails, and would have passed that along to the rest of the team.  

It seems it really WAS Brandon holding them back in challenges, however, since Little Lulu pretty easily cruises to a first place win here.  And that when presumably dehydrated from the lack of fire.  Kudos to them.  Really, the only one who remotely does badly is Emily, who gets at least one faceplant and seems to take a few tries, and even she was no worse than, say, Katurah on Belo, and no one’s saying it’s her fault they lost.  Really, the only reason Belo does lose is not because they’re bad, but because Kaleb and Austin are good rind tossers that they don’t have any competition.  

With their win, Little Lulu does NOT, for some reason, get flint.  I guess the idea is that you have to win an IMMUNITY challenge, but in my view, a challenge is a challenge.  They win when they don’t have flint, they get it.  Save the taking away of flint for immunity, that I get, but these people have been beaten down enough, Probst.  Throw them a bone!

That said, Little Lulu does have an opportunity to get flint.  After all, they’re going on a camp raid, and as far as I know, there’s no rule that says they couldn’t take the flint of another tribe?  True, that tribe could win it back at the next immunity challenge, but without fire, you’re setting yourself up to be more likely to lose the challenge yourself!  Dehydration is no joke in the tropics!  Better to strengthen yourself, rather than weaken the other team, especially now you’ve proven you CAN win a challenge.  Plus, the other team is less likely to be mad at you for taking something they can get back.  

While we don’t see who Little Lulu decides to steal from yet, this means that the correct choice would be Reba.  They’ve won more than Belo, so taking from Belo would be more of a kick in the teeth, especially something this essential to survival.  What we DO see for certain from Little Lulu is who they’re sending, as they’re unanimous in Kaleb being the one to go.  All a fair choice.  While it’s a shame to miss out on the comedy of Emily interacting with the other tribes, Kaleb is, as they say, the diplomat of the group, and therefore the smart person to send to get as much information as possible, while losing as little in the process.  

We hear a bit of speculation from both Reba and Belo about who is going to get raided, with Belo being the most vehement that they should not get raided, as they’ve lost enough.  Luckily for them, Little Lulu is of the same mind, as Kaleb shows up at Reba.  Rather than go for the flint, however, he quickly makes clear his intention is the fishing gear, though he plans to leave them the spear.  Ok, I won’t criticize leaving the spear too much, since that’s a good diplomatic way to do things, but if you weren’t going to take the flint, I would say it’s actually smarter to steal from Belo than Reba.  If you aren’t going to strengthen your own team with fire, then you REALLY need to weaken another team.  Given that Belo has won less, better to keep them on the back foot as much as possible, if you’re not going to strengthen yourself.  

Kaleb, of course, is not just there for fishing gear, but to gather info.  He gets everyone into casual conversation, convincing Sifu and J. Maya to do a duet with her singing and his air guitar, with the soundtrack obligingly adding real electric guitar sounds over Sifu.  From there, he moves to one-on-one chats.  He does well at this, but also does it pretty blatantly.  Julie in particular calls out how good of a player he is.  Kaleb is charming, sure, but he’s not exactly subtle in his charm.  

What Kaleb does have, however, is the “Goodwill Advantage”.  This allows someone who has lost their vote due to, say, a Beware Advantage, to regain it.  I must admit, I’m pretty on board with this one.  It’s building in a logical way on the game mechanics we’ve already established, while also favoring social play (it’s one of those “Give this to someone else” sort of advantages).  Not overpowered, social in use.  Yeah, this is definitely a new twist I can get behind.  Kaleb, probably to try and build trust with who he perceives as the power broker on Reba, gives it to Drew, effectively giving it to Austin, so it will be put to some use.  That’s the one advantage to going and raiding Reba: The Goodwill Advantage can also have some power, as opposed to on Belo, where it would be a flop.  

Hey, remember when I said that Kaleb was good socially, but also kind of obvious about it?  Yeah, that doesn’t just apply to the other tribes.   Little Lulu has noticed as well, and this has led Sabiyah and Sean to consider turning on Kaleb should they lose again.  They deem him too big a social threat to let go to the merge.  His threat level is fair, but as I said last episode, trusting Emily long-term is likely a mistake.  Plus, Kaleb is the ONLY reason you’ve been having a chance in these challenges.  Better to keep the loyal and strong player over the on-the-bottom, not as strong player.  Still, with no vote on the horizon for Sabiyah, they loop in Emily, who’s naturally suspicious.  She wants to believe she has a shot to make it through without playing her shot in the dark, but also notes that Kaleb is her closest ally at this point, and this could all be a ploy to make her feel safe before blindsiding her.  Kaleb comes back before much more can be discussed, so I’m sure it was just foreshadowing for future episodes, and will have no bearing whatsoever on this episode in particular.  

As a side note, Little Lulu also mentions in this scene that fishing gear is useless without fire, which I have to question.  Sashimi is a thing, guys.  You can still get food that way.  

After commercial we’re back at Belo, where the men have gone out on the raft.  This leaves the women time to talk, and with Kendra and Jake’s newfound connection, coupled with Bruce grating on everyone’s nerves more and more as time goes by, they talk about switching the initial target should they lose from Jake to Bruce.  Katurah in particular is in on this, noting how hard it’s been to get the others to talk bad about Bruce.  Kendra seems convinced, but Kellie is still unwilling to make a move without consulting Brando just yet.  Still, she seems to be leaning that way, noting that they further they go, the less they need Bruce.  We don’t really hear Brando’s reaction, but Bruce does seem to be the main target moving forward.  

It’s so obvious that Belo is going to Tribal Council, it’s not even funny.  

Reba, meanwhile, is less about the alliances, and more about the idols.  Deciding not to keep up the charade any longer, Drew and Austin reveal his Beware Advantage to Dee and Julie, who agree to help the pair dig.  Drew and Austin only change up the timeline slightly as to when they found it, so it looks like they didn’t lie.  You’d think the “I saw Sifu digging” thing would clue them in, but Drew passes it off as not wanting to give the game away in case J. Maya and Sifu were nearby.  If I were Julie and Dee, I wouldn’t buy it, but they seem to let it go for now.  

Their plan is this: One person stays behind at camp to occupy J. Maya and Sifu, while the other three look for that thing buried beneath the “palm tree x”.  Just as they (and I) get the idea they might be digging in the wrong place, Dee and Julie find a rope, eventually leading them to a hammer, whose handle informs them that they must join a chain gang, and smash a rock by the water well.  Despite their suspicious, they decide to hand it off to Austin to do, presumably realizing that even if they’re suspicious, it’s better not to burn bridges just yet.  It goes unsaid, but I suspect they also realize that Austin would know they’d found something even if they did keep it a secret, since he’d have his vote back.  Thus, better to take the social route for now.  

The only wrinkle is J. Maya, who comes upon them at about the same time..  Luckily for them, Dee and Julie are better actors than Drew, and manage to pass it off as nothing, then pass off the hammer to Austin.  After Austin channels his inner quarrier and smashes a few rocks, he finds his idol.  There is much rejoicing, but this idol has a wrinkle to it: It can only be used at Austin’s next Tribal Council.  If, however, Austin forgoes his vote (a la shot in the dark), its life extends until “all tribes are together on one beach”.  If he forgoes his vote a second time, it’s good until the final five.  Again, I quite like this wrinkle.  Adds a decent dilemma to the idol, prevents it from being TOO powerful, even considering the previous risk, and again, rewards those players who can use their social acumen to avoid the need to vote with more power.  This could go horribly wrong, but I’m in favor.  

Dee ends by telling us that while there’s still some suspicion there, the foursome of Reba have reaffirmed their bond for now.  Yep, quite the boring tribe, dynamics-wise.  I’d complain, if I didn’t already know for certain that Belo was going to lose the challenge.  

Said challenge that Belo will lose is basically “Dragging the Dragons” from “Survivor Cagayan”, save for the puzzle, which is the 3-D cube one we’ve seen a bunch of times.  Decent enough challenge to reuse.  Little Lulu starts off behind, with Belo being ahead up until the puzzle.  We all know this is where they’ll choke.  It always comes down to the puzzles on these ones.  Sure enough, there goes Reba taking first place, and there goes… Belo… taking second.  

Ok, my apologies if I confused anyone, or made them question my sanity, but I was SO thoroughly convinced that Belo would lose from the first minute of the show, and this was the best way I knew to demonstrate it to you all.  

Yes, Little Lulu continues to LuLose.  Perhaps it’s less Brandon and more puzzles that are their problem.  Proving her diplomacy has improved, Emily does not throw a fit.  She admits that she’s angry, but manages to express it constructively.  Too bad I still think she’s likely to go.  She would be the smart choice for basically everyone, as the worst challenge performer we’ve seen left on this tribe, and the least loyal.  Hell, Kaleb even said she would have been gone last episode had she not tried to make improvements before then, which shouldn’t make her comfortable with her position, and give others more reason to vote her off.  

After the expected commiserating, this initially seems like what will happen.  Sabiyah makes it clear, however, that her targeting Kaleb was not just idle chit-chat for the future.  She means it, but, in a clever move has a way to let Kaleb believe she doesn’t mean it.  Making like she’s dead-set on Emily, she says she’ll tell her to vote Kaleb.  Thus if Emily, the only person with a reason to keep Kaleb outside of general challenge strength, lets on, Kaleb will just assume it’s the fake plan.  Quite a smart move, and as Kaleb doesn’t believe he can save Emily despite all his work, quite a good one.  

Sabiyah also decides to let Emily in on her trust circle further, revealing the wax idol to help explain why Emily’s vote is so vital.  Not that Sabiyah plans for that to be necessary.  She states that she intends to throw the wax idol into the Tribal Council fire and let it melt, getting it that way.  This then begs the question of why she didn’t do that LAST time if it was allowed, but whatever.  Not a bad plan, if you have no hope of getting fire any other way.  

Not a bad plan, save that Emily doesn’t like the idea.  While I get Sabiyah’s intent, Emily takes it as “You didn’t trust me until now”, as opposed to Kaleb, who demonstrated trust beforehand.  To her credit, Emily manages to NOT blurt this out the second she thinks it, and bluffs Sabiyah well.  She does go to Kaleb before Tribal Council, however, and let him know, suggesting they vote Sabiyah instead, and agrees to go to rocks if necessary.  While Sabiyah’s “decoy” lie comes back here, Kaleb is smart enough to at least consider.  

Yes, somehow the debate has come around to “Kaleb or Sabiyah?”, in which the correct answer remains “Emily”, for the reasons I stated previously.  If, however, Emily is off the table for some miraculous reason, Sabiyah is the correct answer for all involved.  Yes, Kaleb is a threat.  This makes him a great shield for the merge, where he can easily be picked off before you.  On top of that, if you do get rid of him, you’re losing the next challenge pretty much guaranteed, as he’s your strongest player.  1/3 odds of going home are not ones I would take, personally.  Kaleb needs to be let go at some point, that much is true.  But early merge is where he can go, not now.  

This is, bar none, the most exciting pre-merge Tribal Council of the modern era, and it’s entirely due to all the pageantry around Sabiyah’s idol.  The rest of the talk is pretty standard, everyone playing their cards close to their chest, and talking about the obvious tribe dynamics so as to give nothing away.  But we always have to cut back to Sabiyah checking on the idol, maneuvering it with sticks she brought, getting Sean to pour water to cool it off.  It’s really engaging stuff.  Artificial, perhaps, but certainly more memorable than anything else that’s happened recently.  The Jenny boot in “Survivor 42” maybe comes close, but I like this one better as it’s just one interaction rather than several things interacting at once.  

Unfortunately for Sabiyah, she should have read the idol instructions earlier.  While she does succeed in getting it, only in the booth does she read the part about holding off her vote to make it last longer, since her idol works the same as Austin’s.  She ultimately decides not to, trusting Emily to save her own neck.  This was a mistake, as Emily does the smart thing, and with Kaleb, sends Sabiyah home.  Little Lulu gives her a good send-off, and there seem to be no hard feelings.  Save from myself, who is sorry to see Sabiyah go.  She was a character archetype we hadn’t seen in a while, had pretty good game sense up until this episode (and even then was hardly playing the worst game I’ve ever seen), and while Kaleb seems nicer in general, Sabiyah was more engaging as a character.  The smart decision, but a sad one from a character perspective.  

This season continues to deliver, and this time, I’m not sure how much of that was the 90-minute format.  It certainly helped, and I’m happy we got the intro again, but what made this work was the character interactions and the misdirection.  The twists added were pretty simple but innovative, just how I like them.  Maybe it would have been too rushed in 60 minutes, but it could still have worked.  

Icing on the cake?  A proper swap next episode, for the first time since “Survivor Winners at War”.  Finally!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Episode 12: Illumination

Contrary to what you might expect, this week’s title does NOT refer to our spotlight-stealing-squad that is Carolyn.  No, this refers to Illumination Entertainment, the animation studio responsible for giving us everyone’s favorite annoying, walking memes, the Minions.  And specifically, I’m referring to said studio’s propensity for gross-out humor, something I personally didn’t want on “Survivor”, but this seasons is giving us in spades regardless of what I want, from Danny’s fart to Carolyn asking for a chocolate burp from Yam Yam this episode.   

Despite Heidi being in a position to be left out and upset, our post-Tribal discussion centers around Carolyn.  With the reveal that she had the Tika idol, which no one called (Yam Yam claims to have, but if he did, we never saw it.), everyone sings her praises.  She of course gets asked about the “Red X” thing from WAY back in the season, and she can’t help but tell the whole story.  She spins a good yarn about it, too, helping to assuage fears that she might not be able to sell herself/her game well at Final Tribal Council.  Perhaps realizing how big a target this makes her, though, she tries to downplay it, saying it was just her being crazy.  Absolutely zero people buy this.  About the person still the most skeptical is Lauren, and even she more says Carolyn has strategy under a crazy appearance than actually dismissing her strategy.  

While Heidi doesn’t outwardly say she’s concerned about her position, she is the first one up to look for an idol, assuming Carolyn’s was re-planted.  She’s not stealthy enough for Carson, however, and he alerts everyone else, leading to a mass idol-hunt.  While Heidi does have her own idol, she wants two to ensure she’s safe up until Final Four Fire-Making.  Fair enough.  She doesn’t find it; indeed no one finds it, at least that we see.  All we get is more confirmation that these people do not know proper idol-hunting technique.  So many hands blindly plunged into trees.  Poke in with a stick first, people!  Snakes are still a thing!  

Without idols, talk turns to strategy.  Having evidently realized their error in not breaking up the Tika Three before, Jaime and Lauren set out to do so now, hyping up to Carson and Yam Yam how much of a threat Carolyn has turned out to be.  They subtly hint that Carolyn should go, and Carson and Yam Yam agree to their faces.  Unfortunately, our narrator for this strategy is Jaime, and as the pattern of the season goes, Jaime must be wrong.  Thus, this plan is doomed to failure before it even begins.  

Sure enough, Carson admits in confessional that he wants to keep Carolyn around, which makes sense for him.  While Carolyn is a bigger threat, Carson is probably the one person left who can still beat her, and thus his concern is less “Who do I get to the end with?” and more “How do I get to the end?”  Keeping around Carolyn, who’s shown amazing loyalty to him thus far, and is an eye-catching target he can shield himself with, is thereby a smart move.  

Notice I only talked about Carson’s perspective there.  We’ll come back to Yam Yam.  

Our reward challenge is the Russell Swan Memorial Ball Roll, commemorating the man’s near-death in “Survivor Samoa”.  Not sure why we want that commemorated, since I know for a fact it turned at least one person off “Survivor” permanently, but since this challenge was also used last season, I’m guessing budget is a factor.  Honestly, the only noticeable change is a few branches tied to the top of each ball, which seems kind of pointless.  I guess it’s to make it look like the ball picked up debris in later shots, but it’s so obvious early on, that it seems more trouble than it’s worth.  

Our random division of teams this time gives the orange team, that being Lauren, Carson, and Yam Yam, an edge.  They have the best puzzle-solvers on their side.  They have the strongest people left in the game on their side.  And, perhaps their biggest advantage of all, they DON’T have Carolyn, who somehow managed to lose the ball when she should have had a fairly good grip on it, or at least a decent spatial sense of where it was throughout.  While the purple team does get to the table maze at the end (both Jaime and Carson, the callers for their respective teams, being ok being placed in a “Superman” horizontal pose rather than being rotated upright for some reason), orange easily beats them, earning a day at The Sanctuary, foot massages, and sandwiches.  And people say the rewards aren’t great in the modern era.  Please note the sarcasm.  

Yam Yam is happy to have basically anything, but Jaime is happy too.  Evidently Carson’s relative disinterest in getting rid of Carolyn did not go unnoticed, and so Jaime pitches to Carolyn getting rid of Carson.  She meets with basically the same result.  Carolyn says to her face it’s a good idea, but privately notes that while she does need to get rid of Carson, it’s too soon.  Again, can’t fault the logic here.  Carson is probably the only person left Carolyn DOESN’T beat, but as she’s such a big target, she probably does need a shield around.  If Tika breaks up now, even assuming Carson goes, Carolyn is probably gone next.  Hence, she should probably wait a vote or two before striking (I’m assuming Carolyn has a way to get Carson out at Final Four Firemaking).  

To help prevent any sort of counter-alliance, Carolyn offers Heidi a spot to split up the remaining old Ratu, which Heidi agrees with, partly because they voted against her last time, and partly because it would let her save her idol.  I’d say Heidi’s best interest is still probably to break up Tika, since she NEEDS to strike out on her own if she’s going to have a chance at the end of showing she had agency, but I can see her points here.  

All this is not to say those at The Sanctuary DON’T strategize.  Indeed, Lauren pitches them again the idea of getting rid of Carolyn.  It’s here that we get Yam Yam’s perspective.  Of the Tika Three, he’s the most receptive to breaking up the group now.  Which, again, makes sense.  What works in Yam Yam’s favor in the end is that he’s very sociable.  The show has done a good job of demonstrating that Yam Yam is well-liked, and he does have the argument of “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury.”  Working against Yam Yam is that, as the default decoy boot, you’re often seen as not having enough agency in your own game to be worthy of winning in the end.  Again, look at the case of Romeo on “Survivor 42”: It’s not that the man DIDN’T have any sort of argument he could make, and it’s not that he didn’t acquit himself well at Final Tribal Council.  It’s that by the time he got there, he was considered such a non-factor in the strategy of the game that no one was really willing to give him the time of day.  Yam Yam needs to prevent this at all costs, and breaking up the Tika Three shows that he had agency, and takes the people who might be considered to have “dragged him to the end” out of the equation.  It is risky, given that he would be an easy target at four in that case, but then again, with how many people say they want him in the end, he’s in as good a position there as he can hope for regardless.  Besides, better to go out at four with a shot to win than to make the finals against people you’re hopeless against.  

Upon his return to camp, Carolyn and Carson compare notes.  The pair mock the non-Tika for trying to break up Tika, saying they’re being too obvious about it.  I get where they’re coming from, but I think they’re a bit mean here.  I mean, what do you expect, everyone else to just roll over and let your tribe dominate?  I suppose that’s what they’ve been doing so far since the merge, but these players aren’t that stupid.  They might as well throw everything against the wall to form a crack.  At this point, what choice do they have?  

I know the individual immunity challenges have been nothing to write home about, but MAN this one is lame.  It’s the “Balance a ball on a plate between two ropes” challenge we’ve seen too much of by now, and it just not interesting.  To make matters worse, this group really stinks at this particular challenge.  Lauren and Heidi are the only two who make it through the first (10-minute) round, and Heidi drops pretty quickly into round two.  Lauren’s curtsey upon getting the necklace put on is nice, at least.  

Lauren winning immunity is a slight wrinkle in things, since Tika’s plan was to break up Ratu by sending her home.  That wrinkle is quickly ironed out by switching the target to Jaime.  Probably the least-strategic player left in the game at this point, but hey, it’s the one Heidi will accept, so we’re going with that.  Heidi for her part says she’d like to hold on to her idol, but will play it if she feels threatened.  This is also known as “Bog Standard Idol Confessional #5”.  

Thus it falls to Yam Yam to do the heavy lifting for misdirection this episode, ramping up his anti-Carolyn dialogue.  Yam Yam frames this as a duel between his heart and his head.  Do the strategically smart thing and get out a threat to better his own position, or keep a friend around at the cost of his game.  An old dilemma, but a solid one.  Basically the bread and butter of “Survivor”.  

Recognizing that with Heidi on board, he needs Carson to vote with him, he pitches the idea to Carson.  In addition to the “threat” argument already made, Yam Yam notes that Carolyn will be tough to take on in fire, stating that she practiced so much she was “bleeding”.  If this were about anyone else, I would dismiss it as hyperbole, but in Carolyn’s case that may be true.  With Yam Yam pitching the idea, Carson is considering it, as Carolyn’s a threat, but remains reluctant.  What’s interesting here is that Yam Yam and Carson NEED to vote together for either side to have a majority, but their interests are diametrically opposed, as I’ve already said Carson’s smartest move is to keep Carolyn, while Yam Yam’s is to vote her out.  I’d say if we’re trying to find the best compromise between the two, getting rid of Carolyn is probably slightly better, as Carson’s then eliminating his one true threat at Final Tribal, but again, I can see why he’d want to keep Carolyn around.  

In a rarity for misdirection this season, I don’t buy it for a second.  Yeah, sorry, this episode is about the only one this season where I would say the outcome is entirely predictable.  Perhaps they had no choice with who said what in confessional, but the big flaw here is making Jaime the driving force behind wanting Carolyn out.  You can’t spend all season building up how everything she says is wrong, only then to turn around and expect me to believe that one of her plans will actually work.  

It seems the quality of Tribal Council is inversely proportional to how much of a mystery the vote is.  To contrast with our completely obvious vote, we have a Tribal Council that’s actually exciting, emotional, and metaphor-free!  We start off with the reveal that, in anticipation of moving to a new camp for the last few days, they brought everything from their old camp, even the paintbrushes.  Lauren did most of the schlepping, due to her being immune.  Probst is amused, but I’m just sitting here smugly, waiting for him to tell me again how “unpredictable” this new era of the show is.  

A comedic amount of supplies is not the only good bit, however.  There’s come decent banter for once, and most of the talk centers around emotion vs. strategy.  Carolyn gives the thesis that one can play with emotion, while still being strategic, again subtly setting up her argument for the jury beforehand.  Smart move on her part.  Yam Yam then talks about the heart/head debate again, and even tears up a bit over it.  It tugs at the heartstrings, even predicting the outcome.  It may not be a legendary Tribal Council, but after they’ve ranged from “Blah” to “Extremely Blah” this season, I’ll take it.  

I can’t say that I blame Heidi too much for playing her idol.  With Lauren immune, and no faith on her end that the Tika Three would break apart, Heidi had a 50/50 chance of going.  Better to play an idol than to go out with one in your pocket.  Sadly, I do think this torpedos any chance she has of winning the game.  Heidi really needed to demonstrate here that she could make smart moves on her own.  While understandable, and getting some good reactions from the jury, Heidi didn’t negate a single vote, and has made herself more vulnerable at Final Five.  Plus, she needed all of Tika to leave before finals for her to have good people to argue against, and with this outcome, that mathematically can’t happen now.  

Yep, the predictable thing happened.  Yam Yam stuck with his heart, and Jaime is gone.  Overall, I can’t say I’m too sorry.  She was by no means annoying or anything, but the “Jaime is always wrong” storyline only has so much mileage.  Plus, she was the only one going into this episode who I would say had no winning finals combination (I would say Heidi is there as well now, but that’s as a result of this episode, not before it), so we keep the “best” players in the game, for want of a better word.  Really, the biggest downside to Jaime leaving is how predictable it makes the finale, something I’ll get into in a bit.  

Speaking about just this episode, I will say it’s very efficient.  Hits the strategic points, emotional moments, and challenges in a flowing manner, one logically leading to the next.  With the exception of the banter at Tribal Council itself, which I maintain is the best of the season to date, nothing really stands out about this episode.  It does what it needs to adequately, but not spectacularly.  An enjoyable episode, but not a legendary one.  

That said, it’s time for my traditional penultimate-episode PLAYER RANKINGS!  For the unfamiliar, I list out the players who are left, in descending order of who I think has the best shot at winning should they get to the end.  A reminder that this is assuming they GET to the end, not a ranking of how LIKELY they are to get there.  With all that said, this should come with few surprises, starting with my number one pick…

1. CARSON-As always, this spot is reserved for the person who wins outright assuming they get to the end, and this season, that person can only be Carson.  I can see arguments for Carolyn, but Carson, like her, has strategic accomplishments he can lean on (particularly in how he helped play Ratu against Soka), but doesn’t have the baggage of how he was perceived early on to overcome.  Everyone loves Carson, so he doesn’t have to worry about being beaten socially by basically anyone.  Should he get to the end, I see no downside that should prevent his winning.  

2. CAROLYN-Carolyn has really moved up in the rankings these past two weeks.  Her perception as “crazy” and “emotional” was the big problem initially, but Carolyn has been really proactive countering this narrative to the jury.  Playing an idol no one else knew about, seeding them that being emotional does not include playing strategically.  If Carolyn wants a shot at the end, she’s made all the right moves to do so, hence why she claims the number two spot.  It’s only the concern that that first impression may linger in some jurors that keeps her out of the top spot, but as long as she’s not up against Carson, I don’t believe it will be a deal-breaker.  

3. YAM YAM-Yep, the Tika Three take the top three spots.  We’ll get into that more in a bit.  For now, Yam Yam’s biggest strength, as I said, is that he’s well-liked.  He’s someone the jury would WANT to vote for in several situations.  What Yam Yam lacks is a strategic justification for that popularity vote, and while the social game is still king, you need to give the jury at least SOMETHING to justify it.  “Everyone who voted for me is on the jury” isn’t nothing, but pales in comparison to what Carolyn and Carson each have.  Thus, Yam Yam’s best hope is to go to the end with Lauren and Heidi, since they don’t really have any more strategic accomplishments than he does, and his social game would therefore stand out a bit more.  

4. LAUREN-Despite being fourth, I don’t see Lauren having NO shot at the end, but things will have to go exactly right for her.  She can make the “I was repeatedly targeted as a threat and still made it” argument, since many on the jury (particularly Danny) wanted her out at several points.  There’s also nothing to suggest any of the jury particularly dislike her.  Her main issue is that her strategic game pales in comparison to Carolyn and Carson, and her social game pales in comparison to all of Tika.  She needs Carolyn and Carson out, then needs to REALLY lay into Yam Yam at finals to have a shot.  Impossible?  No.  Unlikely?  Yes.

5. HEIDI-In contrast to Carolyn, Heidi has fallen the most in these rankings.  It’s a shame, too, as her game has been quiet, but when she’s not trying to make a move in the open, it’s decent.  She’s staying alive, and remains well-liked, so that’s something.  But she really needed to not face the Tika Three, and be seen as a driving force behind getting them out, to have a shot.  Without that, and with the blundered idol play (even if it was understandable) this episode, I just don’t see that happening.  

And that, really, is the one problem I have with this season.  We’ll see how the finale goes, but so far it’s been a solid season.  Likable characters, with a focus ON those characters, rather than twists.  Good theming, good mystery in general.  There’s a lot to like.  But, fascinating as it is to watch the Tika Three masterfully play both sides against each other, it does lead to a fairly predictable outcome where you know one of that group is going to win.  Granted, it’s still better than seasons like “Survivor One World” or “Survivor Redemption Island” where it was obvious from early on exactly WHO was going to win.  But still, marching to the end with almost no pushback does not an interesting finale make.  

I think the problem we face here is that the show is overcorrecting for the outcome of “Survivor 43”.  Recall that Gabler’s win was… controversial, shall we say.  Many people said his win came out of nowhere, and they didn’t understand it.  Probst, I believe, has even acknowledged that they may have hid his win too well, and took that into consideration for “Survivor 44”.  And in general, I think that was good feedback to take.  I know a lot of people have gone back over “Survivor 43”, and said they understand Gabler’s win better, but I disagree.  The flaw, to me, is twofold.  First, there’s the violation of “Show, Don’t Tell”.  I concede the win of Gabler was foreshadowed.  All his talk about being the “Alli-Gabler”, and “Hiding in plain sight” certainly hinted at that.  But while we’re told he COULD win, we’re not told WHY.  True, it was probably his social game, and Gabler would hardly be the first social-winner to be under-edited, but again, we’re just TOLD that part of his game is good, not SHOWN how it’s good.  The few times he does make a social bond, such as the “Ride or Die” alliance, it’s underplayed to the point that we forget it even happened.  What we remember is his over the top, messy public gameplay, not the little private stuff.  

That ties into the second problem in showing Gabler’s win: His early narrative was never countered.  The few times Gabler DID take strategic prominence in his season, it was threatening to use his Shot in the Dark unnecessarily, and being blunt about wanting Elie out.  While he did get his way, the way this move was executed did not scream “Subtle strategist”, and thus we the audience dismiss him in terms of winner contention.  That’s partly on us, but again, when half the show feeds us the narrative of “Gabler is a messy player”, it’s understandable why the perception from the viewing audience might be different than that of the jury.  Thus, the show wants to correct this, particularly if Carolyn ends up being the winner, since she could also be described as “Messy” in some of her early gameplay.  The winner was too subtle last time?  Make it obvious which group is dominant?  Winner makes some controversial moves?  Make sure we get insight into their strategic thinking as well to counteract that narrative.  Yes, particularly in Carolyn wins, this will all make sense, but again, I feel like perhaps a bit TOO much sense.  Perhaps I’m impossible to please, and certainly if push comes to shove, I will say this season is better than the last.  But it feels like they went from making the winner not visible enough to too obvious.  Somewhere in here there’s a middle ground, and I hope the editors can find it.  

I say IF Carolyn wins, but personally, I think it’s going to happen.  Hell, I’ll even predict how the finale goes once again: Lauren is out at 5.  She loses the immunity challenge, is feared for her challenge wins and respected strategy (as the assumed head of Ratu), and Heidi, happy it’s not her, jumps on board.  At Final Four, Yam Yam wins an unexpected immunity, and not wanting Carolyn to win any glory, sends Heidi and Carson to fire.  This has been foreshadowed for both, as Heidi started the fire for Soka back in episode 1, and Carson keeps getting shots of fire reflected in his glasses.  Carson completes his “Fallen Angel” arc by losing just shy of Finals, and we have a Heidi, Yam Yam, Carolyn final three.  As my rankings showed, Carolyn wins.  Possibly unanimously, though Yam Yam could pick up a vote or two with charm and a good performance.  

Hoo boy, for a pretty standard episode, this ended up being a long blog.  Let’s see how much the finale tops the length by.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.