Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 5: Fully-Armed Battalion

I try not to be too antagonistic on this blog, but sometimes, things just have to be said: CURSE YOU, LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA!  You and your annoyingly catchy lyrics!  Now I cannot here the phrase “push comes to shove”, a fairly common phrase, without your songs getting stuck in my head.  And now I’m forced to make them the title of my blog.  Again, CURSE YOU!

Rant over, we join the Ika Tribe, fresh off of Tribal Council.  As Romeo tells us, there’s damage control that needs to be done with Rocksroy, since his “set in his ways” mentality means he was unwilling to not vote for Tori.  Surprisingly, despite numerous slip-ups, Rocksroy actually takes being effectively “left out” fairly well.  I won’t say “perfect” because Rocksroy is not good at hiding his emotions.  He clearly is irritated by the decision, and mistrustful of the others moving forward.  But looking at his reaction on paper, it’s kind of hard for him to have a better one.  He talks about how glad he is that Swati is gone, once Romeo explains the whole “everyone is her number one” thing, and even has some good introspection.  He notes, both publicly and privately, that his social game needs some work, and if he wants to win, he’ll have to up it, or at least “ride his team’s social coattails” as he says.  Good introspection I would not have thought possible for him.  Kudos.  

Continuing the praise, much as I hate to do it for her, I will admit I got a laugh out of Tori rolling her eyes behind Rockroy’s back after he asks if his social game needs work.  That was actually good comedic timing, and I can’t deny that she’s probably right in this scenario.  More concerning for Ika is that Tori is not on board the “strong four” train they have going.  Granted, she has little reason to.  She WAS the alternate target at the first Tribal Council, and was at least talked about for the second.  If she’s not on the VERY bottom, she’s clearly not on top either, and so has little reason to stay loyal, barring no better options.  Really, I bring this up just to reinforce my point that Tori would have been a better boot.  Swati might have been double-dealing you all, but at least she had INCENTIVE to stick around.  

Moving on to Taku, all is not well in Jonathan’s paradise.  Specifically, his tribe won’t stop talking, particularly Maryanne and Lindsay, who first discuss Mario Kart, then the finer points of the game “Hot/Cold”.  There’s only so much the man can stand, but fortunately he has fishing gear to go full Rupert Boneham (“Survivor Pearl Islands”) and get away from it all.  

Unfortunately for Jonathan, he goes even further down the Rupert hole than he should, and by that I mean causing a disturbance via camp life.  Jonathan is in the process of chopping a log, but in the process, it bounces and hits Maryanne in the foot.  Maryanne is naturally upset about this, but Jonathan feels like she’s making too big a deal out of it.  Drawing on my deep knowledge obtained via years in the Boy Scouts (probably the first time I’ve done so in a decade), I have to say, while Maryanne may be slightly dramatic, she’s in the right here.  While she did enter what’s called the “Blood Circle” (an imaginary circle around a person wielding a sharp object whose radius equals the point of that object held at arm’s length to the corresponding shoulder, into which one is not supposed to enter for safety), it’s also incumbent upon the person IN said blood circle to A) call it out and B) keep an eye and make sure no one enters unawares.  

Jonathan tells us he needs to keep his temper, as he’ll come off looking like the jerk in any argument.  Valid, and shows good self-knowledge.  Instead, he privately vents to Lindsay about how Maryanne would need to go next due to irritation, to which Lindsay agrees… Despite being part of the “annoying” group earlier.  Jonathan is not as subtle as he seems, however, since Omar notices him going off, and correctly deduces that Jonathan is complaining about Maryanne.  This, as he notes, is a problem, given that it splits the group, and Maryanne has all the advantages.  Only time will tell if this bears any fruit.  

Not wanting to be left out of the “tribe fracturing” action, we head over to Vati, where Hai is mistrustful of, well, pretty much everyone but Lydia.  And we see he has reason to do so, since shockingly, Daniel and Chanelle seem to be mending fences, agreeing to bury the hatchet should the merge come.  Granted, with Mike, he and Lydia still make three to Daniel and Chanelle’s two, but it’s a point of concern.  Hai decides to break up that possibility by throwing shade at Daniel while the latter is out fishing.  Hai notes that Daniel is saying he can’t do challenges, yet can go out fishing.  I personally would not be one to question a serious injury, but it’s a valid point, and the others seem to buy it, so I can’t really complain.  

Now, we’ve been getting some good strategy this episode, even some bits of social interaction, but viewer, that’s not what you want.  No, what you want is STUFF!  Idols!  Advantages!  Long explanations of rules!  That’s what brings the viewers in!

This, at least, seems to be the mindset of Romeo, who along with Drea sets out to look for the Ika idol.  This segues into him talking about being a pageant coach, and the sacrifices his mother made for his family, and how it inspires him.  Not the greatest backstory we’ve ever had, but it does it’s job decently well.  The picture of Romeo in Time’s Square is particularly inspiring.  That said, I do find it concerning that he frames it as him wanting to help DREA be the best she can be, tying it back to his pageant coach thing.  If it’s just to tie into his career, I’ve no issue.  But the way it comes across is that he’s here to support someone else’s victory, rather than his own.  Not a good look.  

With all this talk about the idol, naturally it must be found, so naturally, with the previews spoiling everything, it is found by… Drea.  

Ok, ok, time to address the elephant in the room.  The preview snookered us, most especially myself.  In hindsight, the voice over that played over Tori looking inquisitive is NOT Tori herself, but Maryanne.  Yes, Tori was never the one to find the idol at all, and could have gone home no problem.  Yes, it is clever on the editor’s part to trick us that way.  But no, it is still not a good thing to do.  Whether intended or not, it still sucked out a lot of the tension.  More to the point, I feel like one should really not include ANYTHING in the season preview that’s after episode 2, in order to avoid such speculation/spoiler.  Or, if you MUST, if there’s some draw to the season that cannot be ignored, talk about it in the VAGUEST terms to build intrigue.  I can’t believe I’m typing these words, but they should have taken their cue from “Survivor Fiji”, or at least its season preview.  The big event of that season was the deal between Yau-Man and Dreamz, and it’s something they couldn’t ignore in the preview, despite happening in the last two episodes.  But rather than give us details, they kept it vague, referring to it only as “The most controversial move in ‘Survivor’ History”, over footage of a shark.  Gives nothing away, but builds intrigue.  The hyperbole could get old, but better than spoiling your season outright, or ruining its intrigue.  

Drea gets her idol, and is very pleased with the amount of stuff she now has.  Much as I like this season, that amount is starting to get out of hand again.  Reading the note, she notes that Maryanne has found an idol, since both Maryanne and her particular phrase are hard to miss.  She wonders aloud if anyone on Vati found their idol.  This is our cue to cut to Mike, who is STILL insisting he won’t say his phrase.  Mike seems to be under the impression that if he just keeps quiet, his vote AND his idol come back at the merge.  Now, they may have changed that rule between seasons, but that’s NOT how it worked before.  Your vote came back, but the idol went away at the same time.  Like I said, possibly they just didn’t tell us about a rule change (in which case, shame on production), but I’m more inclined to think Mike just didn’t read the rules carefully.  

Mike will get the chance to put his money where his mouth is, as it’s once again challenge time.  The challenge is your standard obstacle course and puzzle, with a slingshot at the end, so not much need to dwell on it.  Instead, let’s talk about those idol phrases.  Maryanne once again uses her large reactions to sell her “bunny having dinner in the mailbox” line, and Drea has a natural lead-in with talking about food to get in her potato phrase.  Mike?  Well, he DOES say his phrase, and wisely so, but he doesn’t even TRY to sell it in the moment.  Oh, he goes back an tries to tie it into his football coaching, but he REALLY does a poor job of selling it.  Give Naseer credit from last season: He might have just blurted out his saying as well, but at least his SOUNDED like something of a rejoinder to the other two.  

Given that this challenge only has one small puzzle element, despite all tribes getting good strategic content, Taku is almost guaranteed to win this.  After all, they have Jonathan, who’s basically a fully-armed battalion in one person.  Yet, surprisingly, this episode does a good job of convincing us this might not be the case.  Ika cruises to an easy victory after Tori frankly BEASTS the puzzle, but Omar, on the puzzle, REALLY blows the lead, and Vati gets several shots on the slingshot before Taku gets a chance.  Unfortunately, Vati sucks just as bad on the slingshot as Omar did on the puzzle, and Jonathan is able to beast mode Taku to a victory.  

But wait!  Shipwheel Island returns once again!  As winners (getting a larger tarp as well as immunity, while Taku gets a smaller tarp and second immunity), Ika gets to send one person from Vati to Shipwheel Island.  They choose Lydia.  Unsurprising, given her not-great challenge performance, and a decent move.  Then they can choose one person from themselves or Taku to go as well.  They wisely choose themselves, which I can’t complain about.  Again, keep power and information consolidated into your tribe, rather than the other one.  But I must ask… You send ROCKSROY?  Granted, they can’t send Drea again, since those who’ve gone before are explicitly banned, and Tori is a bad option since she’s disloyal, but Rocksroy?  The guy who’s bad socially, in a situation requiring social smarts, and who may feel burned from the last Tribal Council?  THAT’S who you’re sending?  Again, better than some choices, but Romeo, who has proven to be very socially smart, and also in the majority, is RIGHT THERE!  Why not send him?  

While there is mystery as to which of two choices will go at tonight’s Tribal, it’s not a mystery who those choices will be.  With Hai and Lydia having done the smart thing, and picked up straggler Mike, it will be Daniel or Chanelle.  That said, we’re definitely left in the dark as tho which one the group will go for.  Hai seems to favor taking out Chanelle, while Mike is still against Daniel.  Both are good options, and there’s not really any downside to eliminating either of them, but on the whole, I say better to keep Daniel.  Apart from TECHNICALLY having voted with you once, the dude’s injury makes him less of a threat at the merge, which you now have to assume is nearby given the numbers.  And if it’s not?  Eh, you can get him at the next Tribal Council anyway.  Still, not going to fault them if they decide to keep Chanelle.  

Everyone left tries to push the decision onto Lydia, despite them not NEEDING her vote, assuming that Chanelle and Daniel vote against each other.  They talk about how they need Lydia’s vote anyway, thereby all but guaranteeing she risks her vote at Shipwheel Island.  Speaking of which, we get our requisite backstory on Lydia.  It’s decently touching, as she talks about her image issues, but really only stands out for her pink flower hat.  That thing is awesome.  Vati doesn’t need to worry, though.  She and Rocksroy are both suitably cagey, and so both naturally protect their vote, not trusting the other.  Reasonable decision, and nice to see another new outcome than either a mix, or the total miss when Chanelle and Omar went, but ultimately, just kind of a waste of time.  

What does NOT waste our time is Tribal Council, which brings entertainment in spades.  This is mostly due to Daniel, who tries to deflect things back onto Mike when asked a question, and weirdly succeeds.  He talks about how he can’t do analogies, only to then give an analogy to Muhammad Ali of all people.  He’s neurotic and all over the place and I kind of love it.  Unfortunately, this also dispels the tension of Tribal.  These are the actions of someone desperate, particularly when he tries to build up what a team they are, not someone confident they’ll stay.  Daniel will be going, which is hardly a bad decision.  Dude has shown himself to be unreliable.  

Daniel DOES go, but it’s a bit trickier.  Chanelle, anticipating a possible shot in the dark and unanimous vote on Daniel, throws a vote on Mike to try and save herself in a possible tie should Daniel be safe.  I was initially critical of the vote, since it seemed to come from Lydia or Hai and served to antagonize Mike, but from Chanelle, it makes sense.  This leads to a 2-2 tie between Daniel and Chanelle (Mike and Daniel voted for Chanelle, Hai and Lydia voted for Daniel), leading to Daniel going on a re-vote.  In terms of character, I am sorry to see Daniel go.  Chanelle is perfectly fine, but dude brought way more personality.  In terms of watching strategic play, however, very much pleased with the outcome.  After that first Tribal Council, Daniel was on a train-wreck to failure, and had next to no chance to recover.  Chanelle, at least has moves she can make and that will be intriguing going forward.  

I will say, this episode sits wrong with me.  It’s not the WORST, but I feel like, apart from some Daniel character moments, it’s the weakest of the season.  The issue, I think, is that the episode is more focussed on the twists and advantages coming into play, rather than the characters, which most of this season has focussed on.  The characters are strong enough to shine through anyway, but it’s a concern, particularly after last season.  

What intrigue there will be next episode!  An even 4-4-4 split!  Omar not having a vote, and possibly not knowing if Chanelle doesn’t tell him!  Jonathan now being targeted at every available opportunity!  Join us next week, for a rant about the hourglass twist if they don’t get rid of it and/or alter it!  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 4: As the Dime Turns

Look, I know I usually try to make some joke regarding the title in the opening paragraph, so that those who see the first few lines won’t be spoiled about the episode, but I’ve got nothing here.  I know “As the World Turns” was a show, but I know nothing about.  I just knew enough to know I could turn Daniel’s line into a nice reference, but the exact reference eludes me.  Hope I’m not shooting myself in the foot here…

We break patterns tonight, both by me not needing to do another edition of “Matt’s Mess-Up” at the start of this blog, and by there being actual tribe drama after the Tribal Council last episode!  Frankly, of the two, the former is more surprising.  Daniel opens his mouth to begin the discussion, and I’m just going to stop you right there, Daniel.  You are NOT the person who should be opening this conversation.  Participating, sure.  You were the center of drama tonight, and so need to be in the discussion.  But, to be blunt, it’s your discussion of tribe dynamics that got you here in the first place.  

Oh, but we also see that Daniel has been drinking his own Kool-Aid.  Even in confessional, he’s still insisting on the “Chanelle Betrayed Me” narrative.  Yeah, keep saying that, Daniel.  She’s not the one who threw her own ally under the bus the minute the going got tough.  Again, not saying Daniel should have gone to rocks, but by trying to deflect the blame from himself in avoiding said rocks, he just alienated every potential ally he has.  

To be fair, Chanelle does admit, after insisting on public tribe discussion (the right move, good for her), that she did spearhead the Lydia vote.  A decent point.  Perhaps Daniel was not making up the narrative out of whole cloth.  The fact is Daniel still seems untrustworthy at this point.  After al, if he’s willing to be that callous in regards to his “number one”, how can he be counted on as an ally at all.  Mike, of course, is devastated about the outcome, and Hai and Lydia are of course upset that people they thought were with them (Chanelle and Daniel) were not, thus making Hai’s statement of “Everyone was blindsided” only slightly hyperbolic, and within the acceptable realms of drama.  

Still, Hai and Lydia have the least reason to worry.  Unsurprisingly, now that Mike is ally-less, and shown to be generally loyal, he becomes the main ally for power-brokers Hai and Lydia at this point.  Unsurprising, and the only wrinkle is if Mike doesn’t get his vote back prior to the next Tribal Council.  That said, the Chanelle/Daniel division is exploitable, so I would say Hai and Lydia have little worry about.  Daniel, however, does, and he hopes for “A turn of the dime” to save his game.  

Contrary to how past seasons go, this is NOT a setup for a swap, but just a reward challenge.  Three tribe members untangle a series of ropes they’re attached to, thus undoing a ring on a string to pull a sled containing balls toward them.  Once they have the balls, they run to the fourth tribe member, and each must put one ball down the tube, first to four balls wins 10 fish.  Decent-enough challenge, but nothing special.  

As this challenge does not involve a puzzle, Taku is favored to win this challenge, and it’s not even close.  The show doesn’t even pretend.  Ika and Vati barely make it to the ring-toss portion by the time Taku wins the whole shebang.  This is, as per usual, largely due to Jonathan, but the rest of the tribe are no slouches either.  After all, they had to toss balls in as well, and apart from Omar, they all drill it on the first attempt we saw, and even he only missed once.  Hardly a stumbling performance.  

Probst, however, knows that a good chunk of the audience loves a challenge beast, and so takes the opportunity to hype of Jonathan in particular.  Jonathan, not content with only Probst burying his chances, says “Watch, I can bury myself just as well!” and talks about how Taku is a tight foursome.  This is right up there with Tony’s “Top 5 Baby” from “Survivor Cagayan”, and arguably more devastating.  Tony only survived that gaffe due to a major fracture in the other alliance, though given what we see of the other tribes, perhaps that can happen here as well.  

Jonathan’s gaffe does not go unnoticed by his tribe.  After the suitable squealing over receiving 10 large fish (evidently the show learned from the too-small rewards of last season), they note that Jonathan is a bit of a blabbermouth.  And it’s impressive, when on a tribe with Maryanne, if ANYONE ELSE gets labeled a blabbermouth.  Jonathan, for his part, does recognize his mistake, and takes it in stride.  He then takes the time to give us his flashback, talking about being pushed as a kid, and his strive through tough situations, tying it back into his fandom.  Fair enough, it’s a decent confessional, but I must ask: Why not bring up his tenure on “Endurance” here?  Seems like a perfect lead-in.  Perhaps it’s a rights thing, and if so that sucks, but I’m just saying, if it’s not, missed opportunity.  

One thing I didn’t mention happening at the challenge was the commentary from the sit-outs.  This is usually limited to general cheerleading, which is fine, but Rocksroy, who sat out for Ika, takes it a step further.  He tries to offer advice on how to complete the challenge, which just… No, Rocksroy.  Cheering, fine.  But you are not playing in the challenge.  Do not tell the people who are participating in the challenge how to play the challenge.  If you think you know better, THEN YOU SHOULD DO THE CHALLENGE YOURSELF!

I bring this up, not because people will complain about this specifically on his tribe, but because it gives an idea of Rocksroy’s personality, and where the problems for this tribe will shortly come in.  You see, Swati, realizing she would be fourth in the group with Rocksroy, Drea, and Romeo, talks to Tori about getting out Drea over her extra vote.  The problem is that Romeo is too tight with Drea, so that, by process of elimination, leaves Rocksroy.  For some incomprehensible reason, TORI, rather than Swati, is sent to try and sell Rocksroy on the idea.  And after the requisite “Rocksroy talks about how things should be done.” speech that I assume precedes ALL conversations with Rocksroy, he actually does give her an opening.  Rocksroy, not being an idiot, notes that there might have been an advantage on the “journey” Drea took a few episodes about it, and wonders aloud to Tori whether this might be the case.  Tori seizes her chance, and spills the beans about Drea’s advantage, creating an opening for her and Swati.  

And now, of course, we see the PROBLEM with sending Tori to talk to Rocksroy: HE DOESN’T TRUST HER!  Like, I would get it if Swati and Rocksroy weren’t close either, but he LITERALLY is the one who brought her into the fold in the first episode.  In what world is Swati the worse person of these two to talk to Rocksroy?  As a result, Rocksroy spills the information to Drea, who now KNOWS that Tori is not loyal, and thus the target is now back on Tori.  Congratulations!  You squandered a salvageable situation.  Nice work!

We’re off to our challenge, and despite really only hearing from one tribe, I’m not mad about our misdirection as to the winner.  Yes, Ika only got the real meaty strategy talk, but Taku at least had the Jonathan debacle that could cause some drama, and Vati is just a hot mess at this point.  The challenge itself may be familiar to recent fans, as it’s the one that Sele came back to win that involved Adam jumping to grab keys on “Winners at War”.  The only difference is the puzzle at the end, a hanging fish.  Decent challenge, but again, nothing to write home about.  More notable is Maryanne copying nearly word for word Xander’s complaint about no one else finding idols from “Survivor 41”. Maryanne’s message is still forced, but coming from her, much less bad.

Despite this challenge having a puzzle, Taku is still favored to win, mostly because, unlike the other tribes, they get a motorboat.  And by that, I of course mean Jonathan is pulling the boat via swimming, such that even Omar losing a key in the water can’t slow them down.  Since they keep Jonathan literally as far away from the puzzle as the platform will allow, they win easily, though it’s a VERY close race between Ika and Vati.  Vati ekes out a narrow victory, however, and obvious outcome is obvious.  Rocksroy again tries to tell people how to do the challenge, though this time it could at least be construed as him trying to help on the puzzle, rather than being annoying.  

With Tori and Rocksroy already established as plausible targets in this and previous episodes, we instead devote all our time to the third target: Swati.  Yes, despite not hearing from her that much, it seems she’s been caught double-dealing.  A montage of Swati telling everyone “You’re my number one.” ensues, and while funny, it also gave me “Edge of Extinction” PTSD, reminding me of the Aubry montage.  Dark times, dark times.  

Point being, Swati is considered a double-dealer by Romeo and Drea, who are by default the power-brokers due to being the only two not targeted this episode.  They lean towards Swati for being untrustworthy, but Rocksroy also insists that Tori must go.  This also means that Romeo is the only player left on this tribe whose play cannot be described as “messy” in some way.  Either choice is fine, but I would overall say that Tori is the better vote-out.  Swati at least had the pretense with working with the tribe at one point, whereas Tori has been on the outs (and therefore desperate and untrustworthy) since the beginning.  Swati, despite messy gameplay, keeps the tribe more united, which might save them come the merge, given the disunity of Vati.  

Now, right now, I’m sure some of your are saying “Tori’s not a plausible target!  We know she finds an advantage form the season preview, and we haven’t seen that yet!”  True, very true, but you forget, there is no law saying advantages must be found prior to the immunity challenge.  There is still ample time for Tori to find the advantage, and imagine the drama of losing one’s vote RIGHT BEFORE TRIBAL!  Wouldn’t that be fun to watch, if frustrating as a player?  

Oh look, they’re heading off to Tribal without showing the scene.  Really, show?  Really?  We’re now FOUR episodes deep, and the MOST OBVIOUS advantage fine still hasn’t happened for a main target, thereby sucking the tension out of everything?  Gee, you think maybe that was a bad idea?  And it’s not like this is a hard fix!  Just play the voiceover of the advantage reading over jungle footage, or challenge footage; something that doesn’t 100% show Tori!  True, we can guess from the voice, but that takes actual deduction at least, rather than what a mere CASUAL GLANCE can tell us!  Good thing Rocksroy is at least plausible as an alternative or this Tribal Council would have no tension.  

No, we save the remainder of tension suckage for our ACTUAL Tribal Council, where Swati does NOT do a good job of hiding her fear.  She talks in vague terms about how “someone else” had plans, only for Tori to confidently say the quite part out loud, and dispute Swati’s claims.  Say what you will about Tori, I may not like her as a person, but she IS good at presenting herself at Tribal Council.  She may not be at the level of goddess Natalie Cole (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), but she’s up there.  She keeps her cool, and in doing so presents herself as the stable and overall better ally than Swati, all but ensuring that Swati goes here.  

But wait!  Swati becomes the third person this season (out of four possible) to use their “Shot in the Dark”, and like all those others, it fails.  I must say, the contrast between this and “Survivor 41” is staggering with their usage of this particular twist.  Is this cast more trigger-happy, or just worse at blindsides?  You make the call!  Also of note is that Swati, like Marya, hands her parchment to Probst rather than opening it herself.  Given that Swati had no way to see Marya do this, I can only assume that production has asked that players do so moving forward.  If so… Well, fine, I guess, you do you.  Don’t see what was wrong with the old way, but whatever, not a big deal.  

All that said, I am sorry to see Swati go.  I probably liked her best out of anyone left on this tribe, and while she was definitely a messy player, she wasn’t the worst.  She takes it in stride, though I must take issue with her saying she went out in fourth “Like Boston Rob”.  Look, Boston Rob has a worse track record than people remember, but even he never did that badly.  His first season he was out 7th, which isn’t great, but better than 4th.  

This episode is fine.  Not the greatest, but does little wrong (apart from the aforementioned preview issue), and is just a good hour of entertainment.  Nothing to write home about, but nothing to sneeze at either.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.