Idol Speculation: “Survivor Game Changers” Cast Assessment

KA-BOOM! That sound you are hearing is the explosion of my thoughts. This cast has been revealed before even “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” aired, and so I’ve had plenty of time to develop plenty of thoughts. And what better place to share them with the world than “Idol Speculation: My Knee-Jerk Opinion that Everyone is Entitled To!” As per usual, we begin with our cast assessment.

Now, for those of you expecting me to actually assess the cast in a blog about a “Cast Assessment”… You’ll be getting that. But first, there are some points, relating to the season as a whole, that I must address. Usually, I save such thoughts for after discussing each individual, but in this case, since some of these thoughts affect how I perceive individuals, they must be addressed now. Starting off with everyone’s favorite complaint: “These aren’t ‘game changers’!” The internet as a whole seems upset with this cast. That they don’t fit the theme. That they just seemed thrown together randomly. And yes, there are a number of people where you just have to go “Huh?” Nor do I buy Probst’s bullshit explanation of “These are people who were WILLING to change the game, even if they never did, and that makes them game changers.” Your argument is invalid good sir. By that logic, I’m a “Survivor” contestant. I’ve never been on the show myself, but I’m WILLING to go on the show, and that makes me just as famous as someone who’s actually BEEN on the show. Which brings me to what’s probably the main problem people have with this season: the name. Because, when you look at it, this cast isn’t really all that bad. Like I said, you’ve got some head scratchers, but you’ve got a lot of favorites and really good players. But when you hear “Survivor Game Changers”, it’s like hearing “Survivor All-Stars”, and you expect the creme de la creme, not the “Oh, they were there, I guess.” contestants. In a sense, CBS did itself in by naming the season the way they did. From my point of view, very few people can really be called “Game Changers” in the legacy of “Survivor”, because they have to have an impact beyond their season. This would be people like Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”) and Rob Cesternino (“Survivor The Amazon”). Much though I hate to admit it, even someone like Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) would qualify as a “Game Changer” for thinking of looking for hidden immunity idols before being given any clues. So, let’s be more liberal and say that a “Game Changer” is someone who had a significant influence on the outcome of their season. Even THEN a number of these people don’t qualify. Which brings me to how this relates to the cast assessment. With returnee seasons, with the people I’m not fond of, I list who I would have cast in their place, trying to find someone similar in terms of characterization, but better. I’ll be doing that here as well, but even for people I like, if I feel that they don’t fit the theme, I’ll be giving them the shaft. However much I may like them, however entertaining they may be, however smart, if they aren’t a “Game Changer” by either of these definitions, they get the axe.

With all that said, let me again say to the internet: quit whining! Yeah some of these people seem weird, but look at what Kelley Wentworth did on “Survivor Cambodia”. Sometimes you have to take a chance. Truthfully, I actually think we’re a little bit spoiled by having this season come after “Survivor Cambodia”. It’s pretty hard to disagree with a cast you helped pick, so going away from that, and making questionable choices, it feels wanting.

Also, I will give the name “Survivor Game Changers” this: it’s cool-sounding. If you’re looking for epicene, it’s hard to top “Survivor Game Changers”. As I said, maybe not the most appropriate name for the cast, but I can’t come up with anything better, and “Survivor These Are The People Who Agreed To Come Back” just doesn’t roll off the tongue so well, so I’ll give it a pass.

Secondly, I’m going to be bringing up tribal division now. While I won’t delve TOO deep into the dynamics of each tribe until after the cast is assessed, I do need to show the division to bring up one important point that needs addressing in the assessment itself. So, the tribes are as follows:

MANA TRIBE:
Jeff Varner
Sandra-Diaz Twine
Troyzan Robertson
Malcolm Freberg
Ciera Eastin
Tony Vlachos
Hali Ford
Caleb Bankston
Aubry Bracco
Michaela Bradshaw

NUKU TRIBE:
Cirie Fields
Ozzy Lusth
J.T. Thomas
Andrea Boehkle
Brad Culpepper
Sarah Lacina
Debbie Wanner
Tai Trang
Sierra Dawn Thomas
Zeke Smith

The significance of these divisions is this: ON both tribes, I see a nexus of power developing amongst the particularly smart, but the philosophy of the smart people differs greatly. On Mana, we’ve got smart people who like to keep strong, likable people around as shields. The power on Nuku, however, guns for likable physical threats early on. Thus, when I say one person is annoying, so they’ll get eliminated early, but another person is annoying and will be dragged to the end, it’s entirely due to tribe division. I have some other thoughts here as well, but we can save those for the end of the blog.

Suppose I ought to get to the actual assessing of the cast, now shouldn’t I? Last points of note: I’ll only be listing the first season people played on, and their according placement, because in most cases of people who’ve played more than once, you should know who they are, and their “Survivor” history is all CBS cares about, so why should I list their occupations, ages, etc.? And for replacement contestants: if I KNOW someone was unavailable, or didn’t want to come back, I won’t put them as a replacement. Sorry. No Kelley Wentworth on this list.

Jeff Varner (10th place, “Survivor The Australian Outback”): Ooh boy, tough one right off the bat. Now, Jeff Varner is a very entertaining man, and a lot of fun to watch. Recall that one of my reasons for not giving “Survivor Cambodia” my top spot season ranking was that Varner’s early eviction took the season down slightly. So, you’d expect me to love his inclusion and gush about his chances, right? Well, not exactly. Varner for me is a case of “Once bitten, twice shy.” Given that we saw very little of his game the first time out in Australia, I was willing to give him the benefit of a doubt for “Survivor Cambodia”. So, we saw his game and… it wasn’t very good. I mean yeah, he was in control of the first few votes, but following a swap he managed to BLOW a 4-2 advantage for his alliance. On top of this, on both of his seasons, Varner has been sick/injured in some way which tells me that physically, he’s a liability. So no, I’m not super happy to see him back. In my mind, Varner had a chance to show us that he was robbed by “blabbermouth” Kimmi Kappenberg, and instead he fell short. No need to keep bringing him back like he’s “Boston Rob” Mariano (“Survivor Marquesas”). I do see him being a part of the “nice guys” alliance on the initial Mana tribe (particularly as he’s got a soft spot for Aubry, one of the suspected ringleaders of said alliance), so he might be safe for the first couple of votes, but between a strategic game that’s not as good as we think, and the potential for physical imagery, Varner is out fast after a tribe swap. Plus, with less of an “old school vs. new school” division to keep him afloat, Varner will not be as strategically viable this time around. So, who WOULD I put in his place, if he’s had his chance?

Marty Piombo (“Survivor Nicaragua”): I get that “Survivor Nicaragua” was not a good season. But Marty was one of the best things about it! Loud, brash, and faking being a chess grandmaster all make him very memorable, and as this helped him influence the course of his season, well earns him a spot. We’ve seen one contender try and fail; let’s give the newer guy a chance!

Sandra Diaz-Twine (Winner, “Survivor Pearl Islands”): Even being conservative with the definition of “Game Changer”, Sandra could still fit the bill for pioneering the “As long as it ain’t me” strategy, which many have tried and failed to copy. And she’ll definitely bring it from and entertainment perspective. I mean, as many have pointed out, you put her on a tribe with Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”). You’re just ASKING for entertaining arguments! And Sandra is a player I’ve got a lot of time for. But here’s the thing: It’s too soon for her. As someone who’s of the opinion that three time playing is the MAXIMUM for any player to avoid overexposure, Sandra needs to be saved for a grand finale. An all-winners season. Give her a chance to defend her title against the TRUE best of the best. Using her here, while entertaining, feels like a waste. Because you KNOW Sandra will not win this season. If I were going by statistics, she does have the best record. Here’s the thing, though: Sandra gets by through not being an initial target. She flew under the radar on “Survivor Pearl Islands”, and as she was only remembered as a slightly above-average winner when she went on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, she wasn’t the biggest fish in the pond. Now? She can’t. She simply can’t. Being the only two-time winner puts her at the top of a lot of people’s hit lists. Add onto that her challenge liability, and she’s definitely out before the merge. And we could have saved her for someplace better! Why not replace her with…

Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”): Yes, Kim is not a lip Puerto-Rican mother, but she IS a badass winner, and unlike Sandra, has not been overplayed. Kim is often rivaled with Sandra as one of the smartest winners ever, so why not put her on this season, see if she can pull it off, and THEN let the two meet for their respective third times to see who’s TRULY the best?

Cirie Fields (4th place, “Survivor Exile Island”): Here, with Cirie, we have flop of Jeff Varner. She definitely deserves to be back from a “Game Changers” perspective. She perfected, if not pioneered, the 3-2-1 vote off strategy, and encouraged a lot of less athletic people to try for the show. Bottom line with Cirie: I just don’t enjoy her. My initial dislike was due to being a big Terry Dietz fan on her initial season, but even with that died down, her sense of entitlement when she’s in power gets to me. On top of that, I feel like Cirie’s heyday has passed. I got bringing her back for both “Survivor Micronesia” and “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, but after a poor performance her third time, I feel like that ship has sailed. We got all the Cirie we needed, and it made for good seasons. That being said, Cirie being past her heyday will probably help her in this game. Cirie is often listed as one of the more dangerous players to ever be in the game, and this could make her a target. It certain did on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”. But those days when she was in the forefront of other’s minds are gone. I suspect Cirie will quietly become an epicenter of power on Nuku, and slip through until the early merge, where she will be taken out for being a current epicenter of power. Still, I’d rather see relatively fresh blood on this season. Perhaps someone like…

T-Bird Cooper (“Survivor Africa”): No, I will not get over her not being on “Survivor Cambodia”! T-Bird is smart, but an underdog, fitting the Cirie archetype, and DEFINITELY impacted the course of her season with the stray Lex vote at the merge. I’ll get more into my thoughts on bringing in contestants who lost the initial “Second Chances” vote when we come to Troyzan, but suffice to say, T-Bird is definitely one I’d like to see back someday.

Ozzy Lusth (Runner-Up, “Survivor Cook Islands”): Probst claims the fans love him, and keep asking for him back. I’d like to meet these fans, because personally, I think they’re made up! Pretty much every comment I see is just about how SICK people are of Ozzy, and I’m definitely one of them. Challenge beasts definitely have their place, but Ozzy’s played the same game three times in a row, and I’m willing to bet that he’ll be playing the same game a fourth time in a row. And it will not serve him well. As I said before, he’s on a tribe prone to getting rid of threats quickly, and add onto that him probably having a grudge against Cirie for “Survivor Micronesia”, and his time on the island will be nasty, brutish, and short. Definitely a pre-merge boot. The same could not necessarily be said for…

Mike Holloway (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Really don’t get why he isn’t on the season. First guy to go on an immunity run and win? Total game changer! And while he brings a lot of the same things as Ozzy to the table, he’s got more personality, and would be more likely to change up his play style, making for a more interesting show. Plus, WE HAVEN’T SEEN HIM THREE TIMES ALREADY! I mean, this is a guy fans actually VOTED onto the show again, and was only voided due to his victory! It’s a win-win, CBS!

J.T. Thomas (Winner, “Survivor Tocantins”): On this season, one pattern that becomes apparent really quickly is that the previous winners are pretty universally the biggest targets, making them unlikely to win again. However, if I WERE to give one winner a chance at taking home another title, J.T. would be it. In a sense, he’s HELPED by his poor performance on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” Nowadays, he’s not so much remembered as “The first flawless victory”, but as “The guy who gave his idol to Russell Hantz”. A pretty embarrassing legacy, to be sure, but one that helps hide how dangerous J.T. is. If people forget that he’s a social charmer with more strategic smarts than you’d think, J.T. will destroy you! I still don’t see him winning, especially if he gets too caught up in trying to prove himself, but I think he’ll make probably the mid-merge area. Would I change him out? Absolutely not! As I say, J.T. is an engaging player for all the contradictions one can find in him, and a good redemption story-arc could liven up the season. When I talk about the good players we get to see again, J.T. is definitely up there on the list.

Andrea Boehlke (5th Place, “Survivor Redemption Island”s): Ok, while I don’t necessarily agree with bringing back someone based on “potential” gameplay, I can forgive it once. But TWICE? Look, I know Andrea SEEMED to be doing more during her second go-around, but ultimately, she still delivered very little. How many times can we bring her back before we just accept that she’s not going to deliver. Never been a big Andrea fan, and unless she does something spectacular, I doubt she will be. In terms of her chances, Andrea is probably the biggest question mark for me. I could see her managing to get in good with the power players on her tribe and go deep. I could also see her overplaying her hand in an attempt to prove herself, and flaming out early as a result. I’ll hedge my bets somewhat, and say that she goes out after a swap, right before the merge. But given my way, I’d put someone else in her place.

Cydney Gillon (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Unlike Andrea, Cydney actually BROUGHT strategy to the table, and was quite good at it as well. At least and entertaining, and definitely more strategic, Cydney would elevate this season to a whole new level. And for those say this is too many people from “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, when you factor in the four already cast, don’t worry, one of them is also going to be getting the boot, so adding in Cydney keeps us at four.

Troyzan Robertson (10th place, “Survivor One World”): I’ve gone on record saying that I don’t mind people up for “Survivor Cambodia” but not making the cut being offered another chance, and I stand by that. But I meant for another “Second Chance” vote, not to be stuck on the season itself. Put simply, there are only two groups of people who I would say from the “Second Chance” vote who CBS could cast of their own accord that I’d be okay with. The first group is those done in by recency bias, like T-Bird and Shane Powers (“Survivor Exile Island”), due to more recent fans probably enjoying their games, but not knowing who they are. And the second is those done in by their proximity to the end, that being Mike Holloway and Carolyn Rivera, who probably lost votes due to people not wanting to “waste” their vote on a potential winner. Anyone other than that? CBS, have you considered the reason that these people didn’t make it on was because WE DIDN’T WANT TO SEE THEM AGAIN? I suppose you could make the argument that they were just up against better-liked people, but if we really wanted to see them again, they’d have made it on. Troyzan has no extenuating circumstances to help him out here, and I’m not happy to see him back. The dude was annoying and one-dimensional the first time out, his only redeeming factor being that he was about the only person willing to stand up to Kim Spradlin. Here, with no Kim to stand up against? He’s toast. On seasons with returning players, you have to be willing to change up your own game to get far, and I just don’t see Troyzan doing that. Couple that with him being on the tribe that votes out the annoying people, and Troyzan is dead on arrival. He might last a few votes with a “bigger fish to fry” mentality, but he’s definitely out before the merge. And all this time, his slot could have been filled with…

Judd Sergeant (“Survivor Guatemala”): My ongoing quest to give “Survivor Guatemala” the respect it deserves will not be denied! you want a big hulking guy who can be annoying? Here you go! With his unique pattern of speaking and willingness to strategize without being whiny, Judd would be a much better addition to this season than the annoying egotist. Plus, Judd actually had some INFLUENCE on the outcome of his season, unlike Troyzan, who only like to THINK he had influence.

Malcolm Freberg (4th Place, “Survivor Philippines”): Ok, cast haters, you are FORBIDDEN to dislike the return of Malcolm. The guy’s a superfan, he’s got great humor, he’s good in challenges, and he brings it in the strategy department. Hell, even by the strict definition of “Game Changers” Malcolm qualifies, for his Triple Idol maneuver on “Survivor Caramoan”. Sure, it didn’t help in the end, but it did help start the trend of “Live” Tribal Councils, so he deserves credit there. Malcolm delivers on every conceivable level, and I’m very happy to see him back. In a sense, this is the perfect time for Malcolm to come back. We got back to back Malcolm back in 2012-2013, and while I do enjoy the man’s game, that’s a LOT of Malcolm. We needed a break, and he needed a break. Now, it’s been long enough that Malcolm-mania has died down, but not so long that we the audience have forgotten him. But the cast may have. With the arrival of people like Joe Anglim (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), Malcolm is no longer the man-of-the-hour, and given his smarts, I think this will take him to the end. Yes, Malcolm is my male pick to win the entire game. He’s not invisible, but between his smarts and his heyday having passed, Malcolm definitely can school all of these people and take home the win. Plus, in terms of timing, as I’ve said, it just feels right.

Brad Culpepper (15th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): He of the eternally being fucked. Look I get why Brad Culpepper got brought back. He’s controversial. He got the press talking about the show, and even if it was about apparent sexism on the show, the old “Any publicity is good publicity” adage applies. But like with Troyzan, perhaps the reason he didn’t get voted back on WAS BECAUSE WE DIDN’T WANT TO SEE HIM AGAIN! Out of every choice here, Brad is perhaps my least favorite of them all. He’s a sexist pig who’ll just play the same game again because he thinks too highly of himself to play any differently. My one consolation is that he won’t be kept around very long. True, he is on the tribe that keeps around the annoying people so as to have goats at the end, and Brad could fit into that dynamic, but with the women of the season seeming to have all the strategic power, and Brad not working well with women, I don’t see this ending well with him. At least we may get more hilarity of Brad being defeated by basic math yet again. It better be quick, though, as I predict Brad is out right after the swap. I suppose he did shift the course of his game with his initial alliance, but that still doesn’t make me happy to see him. So, who would I put in his place?

Gary Hawkins/Hogeboom (“Survivor Guatemala”): You want a pro-football player? Fine. Get one with strategic chops and who’s actually somewhat likable. Plus, put him and Judd on a season together, and you’ve set yourself up for some drama. Perhaps the error is in casting trying to call Gary Hawkins rather than Gary Hogeboom.

Ciera Eastin (5th Place, “Survivor Blood vs. Water”): Most of the fandom sees Ciera as a polarizing character. You either love her for her willingness to throw herself into the strategic game, or you hate her guts and think her moves are overblown. I land somewhere in the middle. Yes, Ciera voting out her mom has been overhyped, and yes, her choice to go to rocks was poorly timed, but she still had potential. Look how she simultaneously caught Katie Collins in a lie, and then ensured Katie in a lie of her own. That, right there, is impressive! Plus, I’ll take someone who plays badly over someone who doesn’t play at all. Add in a good snarky comments here or there, and I’m happy enough with Ciera on this season. Heck, with the decision to go to rocks, she definitely fits the second definition of “Game Changer”, and arguably fits the first. Definitely not changing her out. With all that said, Ciera is definitely short-lived in this game. My read on Ciera is that she really hasn’t recovered from “Survivor Cambodia”, and is still stuck in that mindset. The trouble is that this is a different cast than “Survivor Cambodia”, and handling them the same will result in a post-swap, pre-merge eviction. Yes, keep telling people to “Make moves”, see how far it gets you.

Sarah Lacina (11th Place, “Survivor Cagayan”): One of the major head scratchers of the season. Sarah, really? I could see Sarah getting asked back for another “Second Chances” vote, but how is she in any way a “Game Changer”. She played very little, and when she did play, was so entitled that she screwed her own game up. In a sense, this makes her dangerous, as no one will target her initially. However, once again, Sarah is her own worst enemy. As I’ve said, on seasons like this, you need to be willing to recognize the flaws in your own game, and be willing to fix them. In Sarah’s case, I don’t think she sees the flaws in her game. Correction: I think she sees Kass as the flaw in her game, and by being unwilling to take a hard look at herself, she won’t win. She’ll probably make the early to mid-merge by virtue of being useful and unthreatening, but her own inflexibility will be her downfall at that point. As a Kass fan, it should come as no surprise that I’m not big on Sarah. She’s not the WORST this season has to offer, but she comes off as entitled and full of herself. I’d much rather see…

Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Yeah, Natalie’s game may not have been revolutionary, but she did influence the course of her season, and I’ll take it. You want personality? Natalie’s got personality. Now, let’s see her use it.

Tony Vlachos (Winner, “Survivor Cagayan”): Tony is a character I got back and forth on. He definitely plays hard, which is a plus, but I often feel like there’s no method to his madness, and he can come off as an arrogant Jersey stereotype. Still, he is one of the few who really changed the way the game is played, by showing that a “balls to the wall” approach can work, and since he can get a smile out of me, I’ll give him a plus for the season. Again, though, he won’t be around very long for us to enjoy. Tony’s play style is SO over the top that he really can’t hide, and on a season like this, hiding is essential. Tony is no doubt a pre-merge boot. If he changes up his game, MAYBE he could go deep, but I don’t think Tony is capable of that, so pre-merge boot it is.

Hali Ford (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Now we get into the REAL “What were they thinking?” moments, and Hali definitely fits the bill there. She has NO accomplishments to her name whatsoever, and is one of those people you hear about and think “Who?” Yes, I’m no fan of Hali on this season, but I do like her chances. As I’ve said, lying low is a benefit on this season, and so by having no accomplishments to her name, Hali is well placed to go deep. I’ll also give her this, she ADMITS that she did nothing to earn her place on this season, and knows it. Unlike everyone else, who embraces their title whether or not it was earned, Hali is fully aware of how she stands, and that gives her an edge. Plus, while I still don’t believe in casting returnees for “potential”, I can kind of see it here. Hali’s game was short, but I feel like she was a driving force behind the Max vote after the swap, and she might impress us and be the next Kelley Wentworth. She’ll be around ot the mid-to-late merge for sure, but I can’t help but feel her spot would be better filled with…

Sophie Clarke (“Survivor South Pacific”): Nerdy superfan? Check. Much more engaging? Double check. Actual accomplishments? Triple check. Sophie actually brings the things that Hali claims to bring, and I’d rather have the sure thing any day.

Sierra Dawn Thomas (“5th Place, “Survivor Worlds Apart”): Now, HERE’S where my outrage comes. SERIOUSLY! DID SIERRA DO ANYTHING? ANYTHING? Sure, she split from the group in the Final Tribal Council vote, big whoop. At least Hali has the excuse of being out early. But if you make it to the final episode without doing ANYTHING noteworthy, you really don’t need to be out there. Sierra sort of fits into that “under the radar” category, but I think she’s got too big a chip on her shoulder to keep it under wraps for too long. As less of a threat, she’ll make the merge, but probably be out shortly after that. I won’t miss her then, and I’d really rather they cast…

Carolyn Rivera (“Survivor Worlds Apart”): Like I said, I feel Carolyn was robbed of a spot on “Survivor Cambodia” for being too close to being a winner. Granted, her presence would diminish the “Hot Girl in Bikini” Quotient for the season, but again, a season should not be cast for that. In terms of gameplay, Carolyn would bring a lot, and really elevate this season to a much higher level. Let’s see what she can do, I say.

Caleb Reynolds (15th Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Now, I like Caleb. His relationship with Tai was one of the sweeter parts of the season. He seemed to be setting himself up in an ok position. When he was medevaced, I wanted to see him come back. But like with Sandra, this is just the wrong place to do it. Caleb’s another one who I could understand at a “Second Chance” vote, but in this group of people, he’s simply outclassed. He’s on the “nice guy” tribe, so he’ll be kept around for that and physical strength, but he’ll be taken out by savvier players right after the merge. Which is a shame, but at least he’ll get a proper vote-out this time. Also, how did he influence the game, at all? Can’t help but feel his spot would be better filled with…

David Wright (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X): Less of a match in gameplay style, but more of a match in “I could’ve been a contender” storyline. I’m actually really surprised David isn’t on this season, given how compelling his story arc was last season, and how much influence he had. For all that I didn’t want him to win because it was too predictable, I did like the guy. I want him to come back, and he’d be a better fit than Caleb for a season like this.

Debbie Wanner (9th Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Every season needs a bit of color, and Debbie certainly brings that. Now, if she was THAT one-dimensional, I wouldn’t be happy, but the fact is that Debbie can and does bring the strategy every now and again, which elevates her to a player I’m rather fond of. Debbie did have some influence on the course of her season, so I can’t fault her casting here too much. Debbie’s issue is that her strategy often gives way to madness and social ineptitude, which is why she’ll be around a good while. She’s on the tribe that could take her along as a goat, but would value her strategic talk enough to let her help make decisions. Many of the “Survivor Kaoh Rong” returnees will be hurt by there being four of them, making people instantly suspicious, but Debbie is best placed to avoid this stigma, really only having any relations with Aubry, and those being strained due to Aubry’s betrayal. No, Debbie is a mid-to-late merge boot, and only will not win due to madness inevitably winning out in the end. Still, she will be fun to watch this season. My only regret? That due to people’s seasons being listed in their interviews, we won’t get to see Debbie’s ever-changing jobs this time around. Phooey.

Tai Trang (3rd Place, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): America’s Sweetheart is back, and I am loving it! While he may not stack up strategically, Tai did influence his season, particularly with not using the super idol. He’s a fun little underdog to watch, and just an inherently likable guy. Sadly, for all my love, Tai will be the first person to be voted out. Being likable makes him a threat to the majority alliance on Nuku, and with the threat of a “Survivor Kaoh Rong” team-up, plus Tai still being at the forefront as a popular “Survivor” player, he’s just got nowhere to hide, and it will cost him. Were he a better strategist, he might be able to do something about his standing, but he just doesn’t have it in him to avoid that initial target. I wish him the best, and there’s no way I’d change him out, but I get the feeling he’s done for.

Aubry Bracco (Runner-Up, “Survivor Kaoh Rong”): Yeah, I know there’s a lot of Aubry haters out there lately, but even by the standards of her fellow competitors, she plays well, and much of that hate comes from the annoying people who insist that Michele had no game. Aubry, for all of her lack of a win, did significantly influence the course of her season, and gets well-deserved credit for defeating the super-idol, so her spot on this season is well-earned. As my favorite player of all time, you can be sure that I’m THRILLED to see her back, and her presence is a lot of what makes me so psyched for the season. I expect Aubry to do well. So well, in fact, that I’m making her my female pick to win the whole thing. Admittedly, this might just be me fanboying, but I feel like Aubry’s got the skills needed to take it this time. Normally I’m opposed to making my winner pick someone so close in terms of season number, because I feel like people need at least a year to consider their mistakes to truly learn from them, and playing on back-to-back, or nearly back-to-back seasons simply does not give you adequate time to do so. Normally, I’d say only those from season 31 or before have a shot. But remember, Aubry’s season was filmed BEFORE “Survivor Cambodia”, giving her and her fellow competitors from that season more time than normal to reflect on their mistakes, thus mitigating this factor. She even notes her mistakes in her bio more blatantly than most anyone on this season, noting that she needs to be friends with more people in order to win. Some would argue, quite rightly, that Aubry has a HUGE target on her back, due to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” having just ended prior to filming this season. This keeps Aubry at the forefront of everyone’s minds, and as she was hailed a strategic genius, it could spell doom. However, I have two rebuttals to this: First off, in the interviews available on CBS.com, only three people mention Aubry as a threat. Tai and Debbie, who’ve played with her, and Ciera, who’ll have no real power on this season anyway. For all that she’s supposedly an “early target”, that’s very few people gunning for you early on, which Aubry can easily avoid. The second reason? Aubry, as demonstrated on her first go-around, is SUPERB at bonding with people and getting them to act against their own self-interest. You see how she manipulated Tai back to her side after betraying him TWICE? I’m not going against that! Aubry will win, and I will be thrilled.

Michaela Bradshaw (14th Place, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”): Not sure how she really “changed the game”, but I don’t care, she’s awesome. And she did bust up stereotypes in many ways, so I’ll give her a pass for the season. Michaela is pure fun. A challenge-based character who brings a lot of personality and fun confessionals. So happy to see her back! Sadly, Michaela will fare little better on this season than she did on her last one, due to having little time to reflect on her mistakes. Michaela claims to realize that she needs to hide her abilities more, but I’m not sure she really means that, or can accomplish it. She seems like she’ll fit into the “Nice Guys” alliance well, so I see her making the merge, but she’s out at that point for being a threat. It will be sad to see, but better to have some Michaela than none at all. No way I change her out.

Zeke Smith (9th Place, “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”): Zeke is a funny place to end on. He definitely did influence his season, so he’s ok from that perspective, but entertainment is a bit trickier. I liked Zeke ok as a character, but he kind of became an asshole at the end. If we get nice Zeke, I’m pleased he’s back. If he can bring humor like he did in his bio (he has a line about waking up screaming “David found another idol!” Hilarious!), then he’ll be a nice, fun addition to the season. If he’s an asshole again, as a fear he will be due to the short turnaround time between seasons, then I’m not a big fan. Zee definitely makes the merge, since I see no way he DOESN’T join up with the power players, but as we’ve seen, arrogance goes to his head, and like Michaela he’s out in the early merge. Whether or not that’s a disappointment is up in the air.

Whew! That was a long one. Now, to further flesh out the season, I will concede that the timing seems off for an all-returnees season. Most of them have come on or near major anniversaries for “Survivor” in the past, so this one just seems odd and out of place. Plus, it seems like too soon after “Survivor Cambodia”, helping to explain why a lot of people don’t seem to be super excited. And yes, there are a fair number of people who maybe we don’t want to see again. I, however, feel like ANY cast not selected by the fans would be a letdown after “Survivor Cambodia”, and for what we got, we’ve really got a lot of likable people to root for, and even some villains to gleefully watch fall from grace.

Now, as to tribe dynamics, here’s how I see alliances falling out: On Mana, Malcolm and Aubry will form a core nexus. Both will want “Likability Shields”, and so will click into each other that way. Some might argue that Malcolm prefers to keep physical threats around, a la “Survivor Caramoan”, but I would point out that he didn’t really build that strategy until after the swap, so early on, I think he’ll try for the likability shield. Aubry probably uses her connection with Tai to bring in Caleb, making a core three. Hali and Michaela, and generally likable people, plus Michaela’s challenge ability, making a core five. Our sixth is a bit harder to pin down. Varner would be the obvious choice, especially as he’s an avowed Aubry fan, but with this alliance primarily being anti-Tony, I could see Sandra getting pulled in as the sixth, since she’s doubtless anti-Tony. If I had to guess, I’d say Varner is the sixth, since Sandra is such a big threat. I don’t see this tribe losing a lot initially (they’ve got at least as many physical “big guns” as Nuku, and I’d say they’ve got a leg up in puzzles), but if Varner costs them a challenge, Sandra could take his place.

Nuku is a bit tougher to figure out, but I definitely don’t see Cirie not weaseling her way into a power couple. Surprisingly, I feel like she and J.T. will bond together. I don’t see J.T. or Cirie holding much of a grudge over “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, and while I doubt they trust each other, I think a “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer” mentality will prevail. Zeke and Andrea will probably be pulled in as secondary strategists, and as they’re not the most likable of people, will be kept around a while. The brains will agree to keep Debbie on as cannon fodder, leaving Sarah to get caught up in the ride. Ozzy is probably their early target, since I see HIM holding a grudge over “Survivor Micronesia”, and being too much of a threat. After a swap, though, all these ideas go up in smoke. Plus, there’s probably some wishful thinking in there on my part. An Aubry-Malcolm power alliance. I might explode.

Lastly, let’s talk hidden immunity idols. The one other tidbit of info we got on the season is that hidden immunity idols will not be hidden the same way twice. Some may be at challenges, some may be on the rice at camp, some may be at Tribal Council, but the point is, finding it one way one time does not guarantee that it will be found the same way again. I’m holding off on judging this twist just yet. It IS a clever shake-up with some potential, and I do like how it could keep idols in multiple hands, rather than the person who initially figured out how to find it having an inherent advantage. On the other hand, the conspiracy-theorist side of me says that it’s just a way for the producers to hide idols in places where the people they want to find them go, and so have too great an influence on the game. That’s really only a question time can answer, so I’ll reserve judgement for now.

Say what you will, but I get the feeling this might be a great season yet! See you all on March 8th for the premiere of “Survivor Game Changers”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.