Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42” Episode 11: Canadian Civil War

You know, they’ve talked about this coming for a while now.  Sensationalist news headlines everywhere, portending the end of all things.  Even some semi-compelling evidence for it.  I must admit, though, that even if I DID subscribe to the idea, I did not expect it to be coming this far north.  

I also did not expect to be doing one of these right now, yet here we are.  Yes, a mere one episode before the finale, it’s time for another edition of…

MATT’S MESS-UP!

This one really hurts.  Some of these “Mess-Ups” are slightly more jokey, but I legitimately feel bad about this one.  Last episode, when talking up the brilliance of this group unintentionally repeating “Survivor 41”, and outwitting the “Knowledge is Power” by having someone else hold the idol that was to be stolen.  However, I made it out to be purely Omar’s move.  In some ways, understandable.  Omar was the narrator for the whole thing, and he WAS the one who happened to get the information out of Drea.  But his move alone?  No.  He discussed the move with Lindsay, and together they came up with the move.  I’ve seen some people say Lindsay suggested the move, and thus should get all the credit.  They may be right; I can’t remember the exact order of the conversation, but I don’t usually go back and rewatch episodes to get these sort of facts straight, and I’m not going to start now.  Even in the most generous interpretation for Omar, though, Lindsay deserves at least equal credit, and I did not give it.  As such, I correct that here.  Lindsay is also an architect of this move, and deserves at least equal praise to what I gave Omar last episode.  

In some ways, it’s kind of fortuitous that I made this mess-up, as this move directly leads into our post-Tribal Council discussion for the episode.  Lindsay and Omar are both high off the outcome, as it went exactly as they had planned.  I will dock Lindsay a point for calling it a “Perfect” Tribal Council, since to my mind, such a title would belong only to a Tribal Council WITHOUT a “Do or Die”, or at least one where I wasn’t the one vulnerable to said “Do or Die”, but hey, she’s here.  Can’t fault her for being happy about that.  

In the middle of this euphoria comes the issue of Mike’s idol.  Omar gives it back because really, what choice did he have?  Yeah, keeping it keeps you safe for a round, but also invokes the wrath of Mike, a wrath well worth being afraid of.  And Omar should know; he weaponized it against Hai two episodes ago.  Mike does make a good show of saying how the idol is for the both of them, but in private, Mike admits that he “knows” Omar is coming for him, and so plans to turn on Omar.  Fair enough, since Omar is the biggest threat out there to win, and therefore someone Mike needs to take out at some point for him to have a shot at winning, but I find the justification oddly amusing.  With the other people Mike had a vendetta against, there was at least SOME slight, real or imagined, that put him on the warpath against them.  Chanelle with the “Shot in the Dark” safety vote, Hai with the supposed “puppet” comment.  But no one really egged Mike to turn on Omar.  So what does Mike do?  Does he say “Omar’s a threat and needs to go?”  No, Mike just HAS to turn it into some drama, specifically that Omar will come for him, despite Omar NEVER saying that in this episode (though he did discuss it in episodes previous, if we’re being completely fair).  Again, perfectly fine decision by Mike.  No complaints strategically.  Just funny to me that it can’t just be a strategy thing.  Someone HAS to be against him, or have slighted him, for Mike to justify mobilizing against them.  

Mike pitches this move to Maryanne, who admittedly does see the value in it.  She frames it as “Omar is a threat and needs to go.”, which again, can’t argue with.  So loyal is she to Mike, that she… Talks about how uncomfortable he’s feeling the next morning.  Way to keep that alliance under wraps, Maryanne.  

Ok, ok, she doesn’t mention the “Targeting Omar” part, but even that felt like a bit more disclosure than necessary.  Maryanne will have to wait, however, as Jonathan speaks, and per the edict of Probst, when Jonathan speaks, everyone else shuts up.  Specifically, Jonathan has now taken on the persona of “Captain Obvious”, telling us things that we already knew were blindingly true.  Specifically that Lindsay and Omar are a pair working against him, and this is the breakup of the Taku 4.  Wow, wonder where the hell you got that idea, Jonathan?  

This, however, is the excuse Mike needs to bring in Jonathan on the “Get Omar” plan.  Omar DOES catch them talking, but not before the deal is sealed, and so everything seems to be in motion.  

Speaking of motion, our reward challenge features a lot of it.  Contestants spin themselves around really fast to unspool rope from themselves.  Having done so, they cross a rope bridge and then a balance beam, on which they must untie keys to unlock puzzle pieces.  This, of course, means a puzzle at the end, with the solver winning reward for themselves.  

Now, contrary to how generic a descriptor that is, I actually quite like this challenge.  There are specifically two things about it that hit the mark for me.  One is the puzzle.  If you’re familiar at all with “Survivor” History, you will realize this is no ordinary puzzle.  This is what I call “The Kass Puzzle”.  More specifically, the puzzle that Kass solved on “Survivor Cagayan” to win her immunity in what is, in my opinion, the best challenge comeback in the history of the show.  A good puzzle on its own, but allowing me to relive this challenge brings me joy.  

The other reason is Maryanne.  Say what you will about her, the woman is making the MOST of this experience, and loving every minute of it.  Everyone else just kind does their spin as quickly and clinically as possible, but Maryanne goes all over the place, laughing all the way.  She even gets in some “Opposite Direction Spins” to try and cure the dizziness.  Doesn’t work, naturally, but the pleasure’s in the trying.  I hope, dear reader, that you at some point experience even 1/4 the joy that Maryanne felt doing that challenge.  You will truly be happy at that time.  

As this challenge involves a puzzle, Jonathan does not have much chance to win it, despite his decent lead from the physical portion.  Most everyone here has something of a chance to win it, but it’s Omar that ultimately takes the thing…

SMACK!

Sorry, a pig just flew into my window.  It’s not enough for Omar to enjoy his win, however.  We need to talk about how much it means to him as a fan, and what it will mean to his niece, whom he just cares SO MUCH about!  Subtle, show.  Very subtle.  While you’re at it, why don’t you photoshop in a sign that says “Dead Man Walking” around his neck? 

Because it would cover the awesome Emu Shirt, that’s why.  

Anyway, like last season, Omar has a choice between a healthier meal of chicken and veggies, or sugary foods like cake and cookies.  With no Deshawn to try and bargain for letters from home, Omar is instead left with the wrinkle of taking the former reward and two people with him, or the latter and three.  Correctly recognizing that the boost from food is going to be fleeting, Omar chooses the latter, and takes everyone but Lindsay and Jonathan.  Assuming that he and Lindsay had discussed this earlier, this move makes perfect sense.  No sense in giving Jonathan even fleeting strength, and you nullify the risk of people strategizing against you, since the two aren’t talking strategy at this point anyway.  

Case in point, both make a show of wanting to target Mike back at camp, though neither are particularly good liars, and it’s clear to everyone watching that they don’t trust each other.  Kind of hilarious, actually.  We get better strategizing once everyone gets back to camp.  We find out that Maryanne, despite that one earlier scene, is more on board with the “Boot Omar” plan than we thought, and she starts telling the few left who don’t know about her extra vote.  And yeah, given that this is still a semi-slim majority, this time it actually makes SENSE to tell people about your advantage.  Gives them more confidence in the plan, and makes defectors less likely.  Mike reciprocates by saying he can use his idol to protect them both, which makes Maryanne very happy since she has an idol ANYWAY, but now has an extra backup, effectively.  The only thing that can possibly go wrong is Lindsay or Omar winning immunity.  

Our immunity challenge is sadly not as good as the reward challenge.  Just your generic obstacle course with ladder puzzles, and a table maze at the end.  The one thing I think was pretty cool was getting a key up a ladder by moving its rungs back and forth.  That was clever.  

Not inherent to the challenge, but another thing that helps is the tension.  This challenge is surprisingly even overall, but it quickly becomes clear that Jonathan and Lindsay are our two table maze whizzes.  They go back and forth, and the music gives us some good fakeouts.  In the end, the more interesting choice of Lindsay wins.  Now, as Mike rightly notes, there is the possibility of Omar being immune by Lindsay’s talisman, now an idol, and so a backup plan must be put in place.  

Said backup plan is… Romeo.  Ok, I guess it makes sense.  Mike doesn’t want himself, Jonathan, or Maryanne gone, and with Lindsay and Omar potentially immune, only Romeo is left.  But if you’re talking about using him as a swing vote, maybe just let Jonathan go, and get one of Lindsay or Omar on the next round.  The “They’re taking up a seat at the end” argument is only for the likes of Cirie Fields (“Survivor Exile Island”) who win no matter who they’re up against.  Mike has by no means the LOWEST chance of winning of this group, but he’s not a certainty like Cirie would be in any Final Tribal Council.  

The Omar plan is not completely dead, however.  Lindsay, fearing that her talisman will be put back in play should she use it, discusses NOT using it at all.  Now, THIS is the one true misstep of the episode, strategically and editing wise.  From a strategy perspective, while I get the fear of “It comes back into the game”, this is contradicted by the text of the advantage itself saying it expires at the Final Six.  You know, where you are RIGHT NOW!  Unless they blatantly change the rules on the spot (something that is, admittedly, not out of the question given how the show has been these past couple seasons), it will be powerless.  Moreover, by NOT playing it, you deprive yourself of the opportunity to show off in front of the jury, not to mention save an ally YOU NEED going forward.  Omar is, for all intents and purposes, drawing fire away from Lindsay.  If she wants to not be targeted, and thus need to win every immunity moving forward, she NEEDS Omar around.  She’s also probably the one person left who might have a realistic chance of beating Omar in the finals, so even if he does stick around to the end, there’s no rush.  

From an editors perspective, however, this REALLY should have been the misdirection for the episode.  Put this closer to the end, right before they march off, throw in a sound byte of Lindsay saying maybe she will play it after all, and BAM!  A decent mystery heading into Tribal Council.  But no, it’s taken as a near-certainty that she won’t, which leads Maryanne to spearhead the Omar plan.  Getting Romeo fully on board, she plans to split the votes.  She, Romeo, and her extra vote go on Omar, thus giving him the majority at 3-2-2 (Jonathan and Mike voting for Romeo for safety, and Lindsay and Omar voting for Jonathan, obviously).  Then, even if Omar is made safe, it’s still a tie, rather than an automatic Jonathan eviction.  Only a moron would be against this plan.  

Ok, ok, I exaggerate.  Jonathan and Mike do object to it being too complicated, Mike in particular saying Maryanne is trying to play a “too advanced” version of “Survivor”.  See, this is the Mike I was afraid we’d get pre-season, the one who only understands the most basic of strategy and becomes hard-headed in the face of anything more advanced.  What Maryanne is suggesting is the smart move, guys, and not rocket science.  Hell, ROMEO is the only person who might have an objection, as he’s an alternate target in that scenario, and yet he’s the one fully on board!  That might be because Maryanne did a masterful job convincing him they were just going for Omar, but still!  

That said, for all that I joke, these two men are NOT, in fact, morons, and I have no doubt they’ll fall in line with Maryanne’s superior plan before Tribal Council.  That said, such a plan requires things being played close-to-the-chest, and all do it masterfully here.  Brilliant strategy, but leads to a Tribal Council with not a lot to talk about.  Save, that is, for Omar’s final nail in the coffin, when he talks about being “Survivor Confident”, where you can never know for certain, but think you’re good.  

Yeah, guess who gets the rug pulled out from under them.  Go on.  Guess.  

While I fully acknowledge it was the correct strategic move for everyone save Lindsay, I can’t deny that I will miss Omar.  He and his Emu Shirt were great strategists on this season, and overall just fun and likable.  When he wasn’t shoving animal metaphors down our throats, he was a joy to have on screen, and I look forward to seeing him on a future returnee season.  Hell, he even leaves with a lot of class, correctly giving Maryanne credit for the boot.  Or the ABOOT, if you will.  Ah, Canadian jokes.  It’s a shame to see two countrymen go after each other like this.  

One or two slip-ups aside, this was still a solid episode.  Not much misdirection, but several fun moments, and well-crafted narrative, and a great downfall arc.  More believable misdirection might have been helpful, but you can’t have everything.  You can, however, have the tradition “Idol Speculation” rankings heading into the finale, however.  To quickly recap, this is where I talk about who I think has the best chance of winning in the finals.  HOW LIKELY that person is to make the finals does not factor in; this is merely who I think has a shot versus no shot.  

1. Lindsay-As always, the top spot is reserved for the person about how I can say “If they get to the end, they win.”   With Omar out of the picture, that honor belongs to Lindsay.  There’s no one else left who can say they’ve played as strategically over the entire season, so she’s got that facet on lockdown, but she has good arguments in other areas as well.  You like someone who’s good at challenges?  Lindsay so far is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with Jonathan in that department.  You like someone who’s good socially.  Tell me who Lindsay has pissed off.  Who?  No one, that’s who.  No, like most people in this position, Lindsay’s issue is getting to the end.  Her only true ally is gone, and she’s the only person truly on the “wrong” side of the vote this episode.  Granted, she has a decent shot to immunity her way to the end, but still, uphill battle.  

2. Maryanne-Before tonight’s episode, Maryanne would have been lower on this list.  While she did a good job hanging on despite being targeted, and had the second-most “Stuff” after Drea, she hadn’t really done a lot with it, and I could see that plus her loose lips docking her points with the jury.  Tonight, however, she proved her worth.  She publicly got out what the jury perceived as the biggest strategic threat, and that retroactively gets you a lot of points.  Sort of a “The king is dead, long live the king” type thing.  Think what happened with David on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  He was the big strategic threat, but when he was eliminated, the person seen as eliminating him got all the strategic credit.  Granted that honor was placed incorrectly on Adam when it was Hannah who did the orchestrating in that scenario, but you take my point.  No one will misplace the glory of eliminating Omar after that performance.  Maryanne’s one true obstacle is her personality.  Multiple people have referred to her as “annoying”, and again, loose lips could come back to haunt her.  Unless she REALLY turned off the jury just by being herself, though, I think she’s in a decent spot to win, provided her strategic rival in Lindsay is voted off.  

3. Mike-Mike is in many ways the opposite of Maryanne.  People love his personality.  That’s part of how he’s stuck around so long.  He’s a straight-shooter, but likable and funny.  People just want to be around him.  That said, his strategic game is lacking.  Not bad, just not going to set the world on fire.  If the jury is heavily into that aspect of the game, Mike’s in trouble.  Still, he’s acquitted himself well enough to garner some votes, and even win so long as he’s not up against a stronger strategic player.  

4. Jonathan-It is how unusual having a player of Jonathan’s archetype this late in the game is that gives Jonathan any hope of winning.  The dude’s strongest argument is that he was a super-obvious target, particularly with how Probst was building him up pre-merge, yet still made it this far.  Can Jonathan articulate that?  Not from what we’ve seen, but you never know.  Sadly, between him not looking too good at the split-Tribal Council, and juries these days respecting the physical game less, I would say Jonathan is the most likely “Xander” of the season: Someone who gets to the end and SEEMS like they should win, but just don’t have what the jury wants.  

5. Romeo-It speaks to the quality of this season that someone like Romeo is the bottom contender of this group.  Romeo has done very well playing the decoy boot, and worming his way further and further despite nominally being on the bottom.  That may seem like weak strategy, but it’s basically what won Sandra the game twice.  Romeo also has some strategic chops to his name, very well running the Ika Tribe pre-merge.  Sadly, as we saw with Sherri on “Survivor Caramoan”, pre-merge actions often count for very little on the jury.  Moreover, while Romeo’s strategy can be a winning one, you need to be up against really unlikeable people to pull it off.  Romeo has no such people here, and thus is the least-likely to win.  Hardly a bad player, though.  

And there we go.  Let us see how the finale plays out next week!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.