Idol Speculation: “Survivor 43” Episode 12: The Book of Sandra

Hello/My name is Diaz-Twine/And I would like to share with you the most amazing book/You snake mother$#%&*!

Yeah, I know the one throwaway comment at Tribal Council has little to do with the episode proper, but I saw an opportunity for a show tunes reference/parody, and it just wouldn’t be “Idol Speculation” if I didn’t seize that opportunity.  

As to the episode proper, given that we had a united vote this past episode, no one has any need to be debriefed.  Instead, they celebrate making it to the top third of the game, watching the sunrise together.  Owen can even be happy he was on the right side of the vote for once!  Being Owen, though, he still finds a way things didn’t go as planned.  Specifically, Sami announcing his Shot in the Dark play spooked Karla enough to vote for him, thus preventing the desired wedge between her and Cassidy.  Owen, however, seeks to fix this, and informs Cassidy of Karla’s intentions.  

Cassidy, being a logical player, does not buy Owen’s story on its face (after all, he’s saying her number one ally turned on her for what seems no reason in her mind), but feels like it’s something she should check out just to be safe.  As such, she confronts Karla on the beach.  The best I can say for Karla here is that she SAYS the right things.  Points out how they’ve been working together from the beginning.  How Owen has every reason to try and split them up.  And when Cassidy says she was hurt, Karla turns the hurt accusation back on Cassidy.  The flaw for Karla, which will be consistent for her throughout the episode, is that her delivery stinks.  She says she’s turning on a “Telenovela” giving us our episode title, and certainly acts like it.  The acting is hammy and over-the-top, such that her story seems much less believable.  I will admit, however, the music is spot on, turning into exactly the sort of hammy soundtrack you would expect from such a scene.  

Still, since as mentioned before, Cassidy should be inclined to believe Karla, she seems to be in the clear.  Her mistake, however, comes when Karla tells Cassidy to ask Jesse if she (Karla) turned on her.  Now, in Karla’s mind, this makes sense.  She and Jesse have been shown to be tight, and so he’s the best person left to back her up, especially since she has the chance to tip him off beforehand.  The flaw in the plan is that Jesse does not truly have her back, and thus tells Cassidy everything.  Now Cassidy and Karla are at each other’s throats, giving us all the scene we were promised in the preview within the first five minutes of the episode.  

Rather than having challenges combined from elements of those in the past, we get straight-up reused challenges this episode.  Weirdly refreshing in its own way.  Our Reward Challenge is a team one (ugh) where two blindfolded players maneuver a ball through a series of obstacles, guided by a third person who has the handicap of riding IN said ball.  You may remember this as the challenge where Russell Swan almost died in “Survivor Samoa”, because heaven knows no one remembers it from when it was on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  A fun enough challenge in its own right, and certainly one that we haven’t seen in a while.  However, I will continue to die on the hills of “No team challenges post-merge.” and “Give us original challenges whenever possible.”

Our blue team consists of a blindfolded Karla and Cody, guided by Owen, while our red team has a blindfolded Gabler and Jesse, guided by Cassidy.  For once, teams that are not evenly stacked.  Blue team is clearly superior.  Sure enough, they win, though a poor performance by them on the table maze at the end of the challenge, coupled with some good editing, make the challenge feel close nonetheless.  

The winning threesome go off to enjoy coffee and pastries.  As this is not a particularly exciting reward, strategy talk begins.  Recognizing that she is the biggest threat, and likely to be targeted, Karla turns up the ham, and the editors turn up the music once again.  Look, spoiling my overall thoughts, this is a GREAT episode, easily a contender for best of the season, but the music deserves special attention.  We get some fun new tracks, both here and at the vote-out, and the editors use them at just the right times with just the right tones.  Props to them! 

Getting back to Karla’s performance, she tries to sell herself as being unfairly persecuted, and denies having the idol.  She then leaves to Owen and Cody can compare notes.  Despite the performance not living up to standards, both buy it.  Now Owen, I can understand.  Doubtless intelligent in real life, the man has had his finger firmly off the pulse of what’s going on for most of this game.  But Cody is supposed to be the super-salesman, who can read and manipulate people without breaking a sweat!  Yet, he firmly believes as well that Karla does not have an idol.  What happened here, man?

Unfortunately for Karla, even when she wins, she loses.  While Owen and Cody believe her, they also take this as a free opportunity to vote her out.  Man, Karla.  I like you.  I really do.  I find your gameplay fun, and for the most part at least competent.  But you’ve been slipping the last few episodes, and REALLY dropped the proverbial ball this time.  

Her lie won’t even last very long, as an embittered Cassidy informs Gabler and Jesse about Karla’s idol back at the camp.  Neither seems particularly surprised, so instead we get another confessional from Gabler about how he’s hiding in plain sight.  All this does is allow Jesse to firmly set Cody straight once everyone is back at camp.  Cody, however, isn’t worried.  He anticipated the possibility that Karla was lying to him, so he’s not hurt, and figures he can play his idol if everything goes wrong.  

This is where the hubris alarms start going off.  If you don’t hear them now, don’t worry.  They’ll get louder very soon.  

Our immunity challenge comes courtesy of “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”.  You may remember this as the “Hanging Bat” challenge, or else the one where hiding your puzzle answers was emphasized.  Seems production did not learn from that, since no one is given the means to hide the combination lock portion of the challenge this time.  We do get a fairly back-and-forth race, where Jesse is in last on the first leg, only to finish the second leg first.  This seems like it would be foreshadowing a Karla comeback, since she struggles the most on the second leg, and does well on the puzzle in the third leg.  However, in addition to the hand injury, and twisting her ankle in this very challenge, Karla’s adrenaline gets to her, and her entire body seizes up in one large cramp.  This gives her closest competition, Cody and Cassidy, and edge, leading to a narrow, but well-earned victory, for Cassidy.  

With their backup to Karla, and therefore person they could split votes on, now immune, our majority needs another plan.  Options are limited, since half the players can now be immune based on common knowledge (remember, people still don’t know Jesse has Jeanine’s idol).  Cody, thereby, comes up with a decent plan to prevent the burning of his idol.  Karla having now come clean to him herself, he suggests the pair openly bluff that they will play their idols to scare everyone into voting for Owen (telling Owen the idea is Gabler, obviously).  Then, they can not play their idols, and all be safe to the end.  A logical plan, with clear upsides for all.  Maybe not ideal, since aside from possibly Gabler (and even that’s a stretch), Owen is the easiest to beat in front of a jury at this point, but it’s hard to fault a plan that lets you keep your up until the last round it can be used.  And as Karla says, everyone falls in line with the plan very easily.  

Or so it would seem!  For you see, Cody, despite his manner of speaking, is NOT a fool!  He does NOT want Karla to go to the end, and DOES want her out tonight!  Thus, the whole plan was a well-played ruse to make Karla feel safe, so that she does not play her idol and can go home.  Frankly, ingenious, and Cody plays it off very well.  See, Karla: THIS is how you pitch yourself!

Ah, but Cody forgets that he needs to keep up the act 100% of the time.  The man just can’t help himself bragging, mostly in confessional, but somewhat to Jesse, about how brilliant his plan is.  He takes out the biggest threat, his stock skyrockets.  No one can question his resume again.  But a la Todd and Jean-Robert on “Survivor China”, this gets Jesse to realize that Cody is more on the ball than he imagined.  This makes Cody a threat in the end, one that Jesse can’t abide.  Not mentioned, but probably on his mind, is that he, Jesse, is the biggest threat left after Karla.  Therefore, keeping Karla in the game helps mask his threat level.  Yeah, MAYBE Jesse has the social capital to turn it around on Cassidy if Karla went tonight, but that’d be a tough sell even in the best of circumstances.  Point being, if you didn’t notice the obvious hubris being set up before, you do now.

Thus, Jesse starts plotting to get Cody out.  Most everyone he talks to is on board (since most of them are vulnerable anyway), and in case they’re hesitant, Jesse points out that Karla’s idol can be burned, so even if she’s not gone, the biggest target becomes vulnerable at the end anyway.  But, what of Cody’s idol?  Word’s gotten around about that as well.  Not to worry, Jesse tells them, HE has Cody’s idol!  This is how he can guarantee Karla playing her own: He plays Cody’s idol, she naturally spooks and plays hers.  Honestly, a very logical plan overall.  What could possibly go wrong?

Idol curiosity, of course!  As in curiosity about the idol.  Karla wants to compare notes on what the idols look like, so Cody needs to get his back from Jesse to show her, in order to keep up the pretense of the fake plan he sold to her.  Jesse, in turns, needs to give Cody back the idol, lest the cover be blown on HIS plan to get rid of Cody.  Naturally, everyone Jesse has pitched this plan to is terrified, but Jesse assures them he can get it back from Cody.  How he plans to do so I can’t say.  With James out of the game, there’s no Knowledge is Power to spook Cody with.  And we probably won’t find out, as now we head off to Tribal Council.  Whether Jesse got it back or not, no way they’re going to tell us now.  They’ll want to keep the suspense going as long as possible.  

Largely due to the lack of forced metaphors, Tribal tonight is actually a pretty enjoyable affair.  Most of the talk centers around idols, with Cody and Karla both coming clean to Probst about them.  Probst asks why, and the pair justifies their strong-arming.  Jesse gets to bring up his social contract again, and how it impacts play style.  Certainly one of the more interesting threads we’ve had in discussions this season.  And, of course, Owen gives me the chance to reference “Book of Mormon” by saying he’s following the “Book of Sandra”.  Gotta love that.  

The editors have done a decent job at giving us mystery tonight, but they can’t stop the hubris.  Jesse’s plan works, with him playing Cody’s idol for Owen.  Honestly a brilliant move.  Builds social capital with Owen, someone who doesn’t have close ties to much of anyone left in the game.  Shows confidence and gamesmanship in front of the jury.  And spooks Karla into playing her idol.  Much as I have ragged on her gameplay this episode, I’m not going to fault Karla for playing that tonight.  True, she didn’t need to by the numbers, and it does show she was still out of the strategic loop.  But as an up-front threat, seeing that the plan is not going how you thought?  Can’t be too cautious, in my opinion.  

Back to Jesse, though.  The one flaw, and it is a minor flaw, that I can find in his plan is that in owning his move in front of the jury, he also burns Cody something fierce.  Now, Cody being Cody, he plays it off like it’s nothing, but beneath the jovial veneer, the man is PISSED!  Gives Jesse the double-middle finger in his exit confessional!  So yeah, that’s one jury vote Jesse is most likely not getting, but given the limited time Cody has on the jury, I doubt it poisons the whole thing against him.  Plus, he has a decent to near-guaranteed shot at most of the other votes.  

As for Cody leaving, I’m not overly sorry to see him go.  The man had more depth than some others I could name, but MAN, I do not jibe with his manner of speaking, and he just didn’t do it for me.  Certainly not over Karla, the other main target.  

Like I said earlier, this is a great episode!  A real return to form for the show!  They may not have had a good mystery, but the plan itself was in some ways so implausible that it still felt tense.  We had a good idea why everyone did what they did, and funny moments and an exceptionally strong score make this an exceptionally strong episode, hopefully leading to an exciting finish!  And thus, now it is time for the season-requisite Ranking of the Finalists, where I talk about who is the biggest threat to win, and go down from there.  

JESSE-Normally, this is where I have to remind people that my rankings are based on “Who wins if they get to the end?” not “How likely is this person to get to the end?”.  For once, this is not the case, as the person I would say has (at least one of the better) shots to get to the end is also the person most likely to win in the end.  Jesse has done a fantastic job creating social bonds with everyone, and manipulating the vote to basically always go the way he wants it.  This might make his game invisible to those at the end, but I don’t think we can say that after his performance tonight.  If they didn’t before, the jury now knows Jesse’s name.  Paradoxically, Jesse is still viewed as less of a threat than Karla, plus he has an idol, guaranteeing him at least a spot at Final Four Firemaking.  Given his perceived lower threat level, plus the aforementioned social bonds, I could easily see Jesse making it to the end, where he easily steamrollers over everyone left, losing possibly just Cody’s vote.  

KARLA-Honestly, Karla has played a very similar game to Jesse, just with less success.  She has the good social bonds, kept an idol relatively secret for a long time, and even has an edge in that she has escaped the proverbial jaws of death several times.  Karla is just less subtle about it, making her more of an overt threat.  Thus, her getting to the end is a bigger obstacle than her winning in the end.  She beats most everyone, save Jesse, given that she has fewer post-merge strategic victories to her name than he does.  But, since everyone is gunning for her at this point, her chances of getting there are slim.  

CASSIDY-Cassidy has honestly played a pretty solid game, and has also survived being the default target a number of times.  The jury won’t forget that, and could reward her for it.  Really, the issue for Cassidy is that her game might be TOO subtle, and she’ll need to articulate herself well to the jurying order to have a shot.  She can definitely do it, but she’ll need to bring her “A” game in the end.  

GABLER-Despite what his placement on this list might indicate, Gabler is not out of it when he gets to the end.  He has had his messy moments, to be sure, but he has had his good subtle gameplay moments as well.  Lest we forget from all his confessionals about “Hiding in plain sight”.  If he can articulate that well to the jury, he might have a shot.  Really, the biggest pitfall for Gabler is that he’s oddly kind of in the same position as Xander on “Survivor 41”: It’s less that he DOESN’T have an argument to win the game, but that the jury’s perception of him may not allow them to HEAR that argument, even if he makes it well.  

OWEN-God bless Owen.  The dude has been trying this entire season, but just cannot get traction to save his life.  He seems to be pretty well-liked, and that’s not nothing, but for a game like Owen’s where he has had no real agency for a good chunk of the time, he needs to be up against other people the jury just HATES, and there’s no one like that this season.  Really, the only thing that I would say gives Owen a shot to win is the universe is secretly a big “Total Drama Island” fan, and wants symmetry there.  

And there you have my rankings.  This year, however, I’m feeling confident, so I will go one step further, and paint how the finale will go in broad strokes.  With all the talk of Karla’s body failing her that didn’t pay off much in this episode, coupled with the fact that she seems set up as Jesse’s rival, the last obstacle he must overcome for victory, Karla wins immunity at 5.  Jesse is naturally also immune at 5 because of Jeanine’s idol.  Thus, Cassidy the default boot goes here.  Owen wins and 4, takes Jesse to the end due to Jesse playing the idol for him this episode, and sends Gabler and Karla to fire, where Gabler wins.  A better outdoorsman, and Karla’s body gives out finally.  Jesse wins in the finals, but Gabler picks up a couple of votes, or at least Cody’s.  

Will we marvel at my predictive powers, or mock them?  Find out in the finale next week!

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.