Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 10: The Birds and The Applebees

I am hardly a defender of “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  When folks call it “The worst season ever”, I tend not to put up much, if any, argument.  Its flaws are many, too many to list here, but I’m sure I’ll enumerate them the next time I update my season rankings.  That being said, it cannot be denied that the presence of Karishma on that season has done one service to the “Survivor” community.  That service being to make Applebees an automatic punchline.  And that, in its own small way, is a positive in my eyes.  

But we’re not here to talk about that season, we’re here to talk about “Survivor 46”!  I barely touched upon it last time, but given that things had to go to a revote, it was pretty clear that there was at least something of an intentional vote split, in case Hunter had an idol.  The only question to me was how many people were IN on it actually being a vote split.  Clearly all the Hunter votes had that intention, but how many of the Q votes thought he was a legitimate target?  An argument could be made for all of them, an argument could be made for none of them.  

The answer, it turns out, is that everyone except Liz was in on it.  Liz is, understandably, a mite peeved at all this.  Everyone tries their best to calm her down, with Venus stating that the plan happened last-minute, and there wasn’t time to let her know.  Plausible enough, though I’d be a bit skeptical given that, if the plan really WAS that last-minute, you’d expect at least one other person besides Liz to be left out.  I suppose it’s possible that she had a late confessional interview, and everyone else didn’t, but unlikely at this point, in my view.  Still, while clearly being pissed, Liz handles the situation relatively well.  More so than for some other situations we’ll get to in a bit.  

To her credit, Venus has a good read on the game, once discussion turns to why Hunter didn’t play his idol.  The prevailing theory amongst the group seems to be that he must not have had one, but Venus (who knows better) correctly surmises that Hunter just felt safe given how fervently Q was targeted.  Therein lies the paradox of Q: His erratic gameplay and general difficulty to live with make him a desirable target, but BECAUSE he’s so desirable, he makes a good smokescreen for whatever plan you have going on.  

Speaking of Q, despite what I said earlier, he does seem to be finally taking a chill pill.  Outside of Liz, who still holds a grudge for him “stealing her move”, most everyone seems kind of indifferent to Q.  He’s being more laid-back, which is probably a good thing.  Let the heat on you cool down a bit.  I might question him separating himself from the tribe THIS much, but given how deep of a hole he dug himself, a bit of separation might help his game more than anything else he could do.  That said, most everyone agrees that they’re in no rush to befriend him again, even if they aren’t as mad as before.  Tiffany says he’s a grown man, and if he wants to come back and make amends, he can.  

Only Maria seems willing to make an effort with him right now, in a scene eerily reminiscent of Terry comforting Abi-Maria on “Survivor Cambodia”.  Q being all about control, I expect him to try and run any plan Maria suggests into the ground, purely because it’s not “Q’s Game”.  In a good showing of growth, however, Q is actually pretty receptive to the whole thing, and polite throughout.  Praise be, the man is LEARNING from his mistakes, and we love to see it!  Q DOES tell us he wants to control his own game, but it’s in the same way Gervase was going to control his own game on “Survivor Borneo”; namely winning challenges.  Not the greatest plan, but again, without more work the guy doesn’t have a lot of options, and he IS one of the bigger challenge threats left, so I can’t fault him much.  

In the morning, we’re back to other strategy talk, as Kenzie reaffirms to Maria and Charlie that she’s still in on the “Vote Tiffany Out” plan.  We also get some reasoning as to WHY Kenzie wants to make this particular move, and to be fairer to her than I was last episode, there is some logic to it.  Kenzie admits that Tiffany is her closest ally, but that this also means their moves have been made in tandem, which could hurt her getting credit at the end if she doesn’t break away at some point.  Further, there’s the threat of the idol messing up a later attempted blindside.  Frankly, particularly in the modern era, these are fairly valid concerns.  My issue is now less with the move itself, and more with Kenzie’s TIMING!  

Yes, Kenzie, you do need to stake your own claim away from Tiffany.  But aside from the fact that voting her out entirely is not a prerequisite of that (merely leaving her out of a vote), you still need SOME people loyal to you.  I get that you’ve been bonding with Ben, and Charlie, and Maria, and all that, but SURELY you have more trust in Tiffany!  That’s a bond that should not be discarded until absolutely necessary.  Look at the case of Maryanne Oketch (“Survivor 42”). She had similar reasons to vote out a close ally, but she WAITED until much closer to the end of the game, when there was much less risk of being branded too untrustworthy and getting taken out herself.  If you want to pull off that sort of move, THAT’S the sort of timing you need.  Granted, the presence of Tiffany’s idol is a bit of a wrench in things that moves up the time frame a bit, but even then, Final 9 still seems a bit early, and you could flush the idol without betraying Tiffany.  The sort of thing you want to happen, but not actually play a part in, is what I’m saying.  

Off to our reward challenge, literally the FIRST since we merged.  Five episodes ago.  Then really, what was the point of merging?  The challenge itself is standard obstacle course fare, mostly involving sandbags.  Nothing much worth noting.  What IS worth noting is APPLEBEES!  The biggest reward of the season!  Probst rhapsodizes about the deliciousness of the food while our starving players salivate.  He notes that “This is what future players dream of.”  Gotta say, speaking as a fan who’s had his fair share of “Survivor” dreams over the years, Applebees never factored in once.  

Liz in particular is overjoyed at this reward, and not just because it’s food she can actually eat.  She notes that she and her daughter have “Survivor Sleepovers”, which involve going to Applebees before watching the show on Wednesdays.  She even has a regular order.  It gets the job done ok, but she’s no Karishma.  But I’m sure this is just product shilling, and will in no way be important later.  

The best thing about this reward?  Probst does not describe it pre-challenge as being at “The Sanctuary, Where Good Things Happen”. May that stupid slogan have gone and died in a fire forever!

With no puzzle at the end to equalize things, Q’s early lead does net him a win, though to be fair, a lot of people get to the final leg as well.  Tossing a sandbag onto a tall pole is no easy feat, so even Q takes a while.  In addition, the music does a good job faking us out that some people may get it in one shot.  Q does win, though, making no one but himself happy.  He is naturally then given the choice of three people, one at a time, to take on the reward with him.  His first choice is Tiffany, which makes sense.  She seemed open to the mending of bridges at the start of this episode, and a full stomach is going to work wonders on that front.  His second choice, Maria, I also can’t fault.  She’s the only one actively talking strategy with Q, so of course she should come along.  Can probably help mediate with Tiffany as well, in case of any lingering resentment.  

Then comes the third choice, and both Liz and the players are pushing hard for Q to take her.  Liz literally begs Q, while Probst reminds him that she’s been unable to eat most everything out here, and they failed at the rice negotiations, meaning she isn’t getting food that way either.  Q hears this, takes it to heart… Then passes over Liz and chooses Kenzie.  

Say what you will about this move, the optics of it are not good.  I get not picking her first or second.  Prioritize your strategic preferences.  Liz, being one of the people most on the anti-Q train, would not be good for him for talking strategy.  But seeing someone that desperate for food, in that difficult of a situation, and not taking them once your strategic priorities are set?  Yeah, it just ain’t a good look especially when Q’s jury equity is already pretty well in the toilet at this point.  

With the obvious out of the way, let’s talk about a few of the other points surrounding Q’s decision here, since while it is a bit of a dick move, I don’t think it’s baseless.  From a purely strategic standpoint, there’s no reason to take Liz.  Indeed, she’s at or near the bottom on that metric.  Q has basically no intention of working with her, and as I said, I don’t think she’d be receptive anyway.  Moreover, it’s not entirely fair to hold Q solely responsible for Liz not getting a reward.  Yes, he made the selections, but people on reward, even those taken, are allowed to give it up!  Tiffany, Maria, or Kenzie could all have said “I give this to Liz”, but none of them did.  Yet we never see anyone mad at them.  Shows how thoroughly Q is in the doghouse socially at this point.  

Even in defeat, however, Liz is not about to get overshadowed by Q again.  She blows up, and I mean BLOWS UP!  Screaming to the heavens, shouting out every grievance she’s had since the merge.  It’s enough that even those sympathetic to her look uncomfortable.  And for the viewer, it does straddle the line between “fascinating” and “uncomfortable”.  Raw emotion works well on screen, but for something like a reward, this seems like an overreaction.  In addition, one could argue that it’s bad for Liz’s game.  While she hasn’t been getting the credit she thinks she deserves, one positive benefit there is that Liz also hasn’t been getting a target on her.  By including “her move being overshadowed” in the outburst, she’s cluing people in that she may be playing harder than first thought, and that may put a target on her back.  

Still, I can’t really fault Liz here.  As she says, she’s in her emotions, and being on the brink of starvation does not help one’s emotional control.  Yes, it’s a bad move, but Liz in this moment is not really thinking strategically.  And to her credit, she does quickly calm down and express her frustration in a calmer manner.  This does not change her situation, however, and everyone heads off in either jubilation or despair.  

The worst part about all this?  Probst brings back the damn Sanctuary Slogan.  Dammit, show, you had one job and you blew it!

We’ve heard from Liz, but what do folks back at camp think?  Ben is not a fan, though it is surprising that he doesn’t say “That did not rock.”  Instead, he talks about how it meant so much to Liz because of the family connection, but here, I have to disagree.  You can think Q pulled a dick move for denying the starving woman (well, more starving than everyone else, at least) food, but you could argue that EVERYONE could have some family connection to that reward.  Maybe people have families who like burgers.  Maybe people have families big into mixed drinks.  Everyone’s got something, however tenuous.  Liz’s thing is special to her, sure, but it’s not unique, and not a good reason to make a bad strategic move.  

But we see that even the people on reward are not thrilled with Q’s decision. Well, at least Kenzie isn’t.  Tiffany and Maria are mostly just happy for the food, but Kenzie admits that she didn’t expect to be taken.  She presumes that Q wanted to mend fences, but she says that won’t work, comparing it to an ex taking you out to a nice dinner to try and get back together.  The gesture is nice, but it doesn’t undo the past.  Fair enough.  

Speaking of the past, Liz is still dwelling on it, and my sympathy is rapidly dwindling.  Yes, Liz has a right to be pissed over the whole situation, but she’s taking quite a while to simmer down.  Again, I don’t want to be TOO harsh, given how rough conditions are for her out there, but it does seem like she’s making this out to be a bigger deal that it ultimately is.  We even lead into a flashback regarding her and her daughter’s “Survivor Sleepovers”, which we do not need.  A description was enough.  

Well, Q has firmly planted his picks in the strategic realm; how’s that working out for him?  Not great!  Despite Maria’s hopes, Kenzie is still firmly on the “Get Q Out” train, presumably not mentioning the Tiffany plan because, well, she’s right there.  Despite how she seemed at the start of the episode, Tiffany says this doesn’t change much, and she’s all for getting out Q.  Maria admits to wanting to use him as a number, but isn’t sure about how it will work right now.  

Things don’t look much better for Q once they get back to camp the next day.  Charlie asks about the reward, which Tiffany in particular goes on and on about, even noting she couldn’t eat the burger (Liz’s stated favorite food there) because there was so much.  Liz tells them to “read the room” in confessional, but again, I’m not going to blame them too much for this one.  It’s not like they came up and started talking about it out of the blue; Charlie asked a legitimate question.    Even then, they didn’t particularly go on about it beyond the usual descriptions you’d expect.  MAYBE you could argue they shouldn’t have mentioned the burger bit, but that’s a stretch in my book.  More out of her emotions now, Liz apologizes to Q, which he seems to accept.  Liz admits, though, that this was a pure lie, and fair enough.  Liz has little reason to work with Q at this point, but no reason to put him on edge.  

For his part, while Q does demonstrate an understanding of why Liz was feeling the way she felt, he tells us in confessional that he has no remorse for his decision.  As he shouldn’t.  If he was looking at it purely from a strategic perspective (as he indicated doing), then his picks were very logical.  His logic didn’t work out, but it at least had a fair to good chance of doing so.  Can’t fault him for that.  I will, however, fault Q for saying he “Doesn’t care what she thinks.”  In your world, Q, Liz will be on the jury, so you’d BETTER care what she thinks!

Anyway, time for our immunity challenge, the “Hold your pre-game weight in a bucket on a string” challenge; the one that tests your grip.  It was first seen on “Survivor Philippines”, and contrary to Probst’s claims, I think that, and not Gabler’s run on “Survivor 43”, was the record.  Pretty sure the Philippines edition went over an hour.  

My being pedantic aside, Probst has more important matters to attend to.  Notably, it seems production has realized “Oh crap, Liz might actually die if we don’t get food in her soon.”  So yep, rice negotiations are back.  Understandably, the price is steeper this time, with four people sitting out.  Same base number as before, but now a greater percentage of those left.  Equally understandably, almost no one takes this offer.  This late in the game, it’s too great a risk, even with Liz’s health to consider.  Presumably freaking out about this, Probst offers those who do sit out their own individual rice supply, which does get Liz, and only Liz, to sit out.  Understandable move, though I’m not sure why it got applause from everyone else.  This wasn’t some brave gesture or grand sacrifice.  

In case it wasn’t clear how much everyone hates Q, Venus and Ben attempt to manifest it from the bench, Ben being out surprisingly early in this challenge.  As he said, his cradle got rocked, which I guess met his catchphrase quota for the episode.  Q lasts a decent while, but is eventually out.  The challenge comes down to Charlie, who’s dropped but had some impressive comebacks, and Tiffany, whom Charlie and Maria have said they still want to target, yet remains perfectly still, not even responding to banter.  The look on her face throughout reads “Don’t talk to me.”  

Despite this impressive performance, Tiffany drops out of nowhere, netting Charlie his second victory.  Back at camp, talk immediately turns to getting rid of Q, with Kenzie now backing down from the Tiffany plan.  She admits to flirting with it, but think now’s not the time.  Really, what tipped you off, genius?

Charlie and Maria, however, still very much want this to happen, and understandably so.  Tiffany may be a good ally for Kenzie, but not so much for those two, and her idol makes her all the more a threat.  Maria talks to Q, who again in a good display of diplomacy, agrees to go along with Maria’s plan, no questions asked.  Not that he has much choice, but still, he’s learning not to insist on his way 100% of the time.  

This, of course, begs the question of where the other votes for Tiffany can come from.  Ben is the natural first choice, and he takes little convincing.  He may not be a fan of Q, but he admits there’s bigger fish to fry, with Tiffany being one of said fish.  Still, that’s only 4 and a tie is not enough.  Kenzie and Tiffany are obviously out.  That leaves Venus, who just seems to generally dislike Q, and Liz, whose dislike of Q as of this episode is extremely personal.  

Naturally, Liz is the obvious choice.  IN OPPOSITE LAND!  Generally, yes, I’d say Liz is the ore persuadable vote than Venus.  But today, of all days?  To her credit, Liz does hear out Maria’s pitch, and it’s a good one.  Maria basically offers Liz that “Big Move” she wants, and the chance to show she’s not ruled by her emotions.  Good way to appeal to Liz.  Maria’s game is really coming into its own this episode.  

The flaw is that this really isn’t a “Move for Liz”.  This is a “Move for Maria” that Liz would facilitate.  I get why Liz would be tempted, but from her perspective, it’s better to stick with voting out Q.  Yes, she may be the swing vote, but it’s usually the person who GETS the vote to swing, not the swing vote themselves, that gets credit.  Look at the flip at the final 7 of “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Eliza was very clearly the swing vote, but no one calls that “Eliza’s Move”.  Liz will fall into the same trap here.  Ironically, despite not orchestrating it, I’d say she’d be more likely to get credit if Q goes home.  She’s been so vocal about it, her getting her way with him gone would seem like more of her move, even though it wouldn’t actually be.  Honestly, the biggest benefit in joining the vote to get rid of Tiffany would be a close tie between the idol going home, and avoiding a possible rock draw in the event of a tie.  The former is definitely a concern, which is why going with Maria’s plan isn’t a horrible move for Liz, but the latter seems easily avoided.  Either convince Ben to vote with his heart, or make the (fairly safe) bet that Mara and Charlie wouldn’t go to rocks for Q.  

While I’m happy to see Q trying to improve his social game, the flaw with this is that Tribal Council is much less exciting.  Everybody playing things too close to the chest for anything interesting to happen.  About the only noteworthy moment is Tiffany’s smile dropping when she realizes she’s getting more votes than just Q’s, which is a priceless expression.  

Yes, Tiffany goes home, and I am disappointed.  Granted, I’d have been disappointed had Q gone home as well, but I could at least see some upside to it, since it’s getting old to have him be targeted every single episode.  Tiffany was dynamic, and had the potential to shake up the strategy more so than Q at this point, so her going is definitely a loss.  To her credit, though, she goes out with an enormous amount of class, her final words mostly noting (accurately) where she went wrong, and how she should have played her idol.  Tiffany, you may be gone, but we salute you nonetheless!

Honestly, great episode!  Not perfect, but the emotions were raw and high, the misdirection was excellent, and it’s nice to see the season remaining on the crazy train.  The slow start is an issue, but if it keeps up this momentum to the end, it will all be worth it!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode 8: Everybody Needs A Thneed

Up until now, I thought Thneeds only existed in the esteemed mind of Dr. Seuss.  Even Universal Studios would not be so money-hungry as to put out an item whose purpose is literally to be useless.  But it seems it DOES exist in our plane.  Only here it goes by another name: The Q Skirt.  

Before we get into our sales pitch, however, we have to do damage control.  Ben is understandably devastated by the loss of his friend, particularly as he saw Tim as a grounding agent for his game.  He’s upset, but not game-endingly so, and he’s comforted.  A decent recovery, so I’ll give him a pass.  Q?  Not so much.  He’s not happy at all that we aren’t talking strategy.  Dude, get the stick out of your butt.  There’ll be plenty of strategy talk later; let the man lick his wounds a little bit!

Q’s need for strategy talk gets satiated anyway when the second group comes back.  Most everyone, Tiffany and Kenzie in particular, are shocked that Venus remains, with her having been the plan prior to the Tribal.  Venus, as she did at Tribal Council, immediately steps up to take credit for the move, something Tevin finds privately hilarious.  She did this at Tribal Council as well, something I failed to mention last time, but didn’t do a “Matt’s Mess-Up” for since it’s still relevant here.  Soda, to her immense credit, was kind to Venus despite their personal animosity, and Venus taking credit for getting her out.  

Credit, however, is a valuable commodity on “Survivor”.  You don’t want to take it too early, as Emily learned well on “Survivor 45”, but you also need it at the end, lest you end up like Cassidy on “Survivor 43”, and not be able to claim moves you made.  Tevin, however, is not sweating Venus as a threat, and thus allows her the credit for now.  Less chill about the whole thing is Liz.  She’s mad that BOTH Tevin and Venus are claiming the move, saying it’s hers since she’s been against Soda the whole time!  Really what this highlights is that everyone’s the hero of their own story.  From what we’ve seen, Tevin was the main move and shaker on the vote, but that’s because of what we’re shown.  Venus probably DID think she pulled it together by talking to Charlie and Maria, and Liz probably HAS been putting Soda’s name out there at least somewhat.  Neither may be what actually swayed the votes, but you can see how everyone thinks it was their move.  Fascinating little psychological moment.  Point is, Liz is now getting a case of Big-Move-Itis, something likely to spell the end for her long-term if left unchecked.  

Morning does bring some new strategy talk to satiate Q.  Seems that there’s a vacancy in the 6 with Tim gone, and despite him being mad at Charlie last episode, Q is now willing to let him take Tim’s place.  This, it seems, was Maria’s plan all along.  Turns out she WASN’T lukewarm on the 6, as had previously been assumed, but just wanted her true number one, Charlie, in there.  Charlie, for his part, is open to the idea, but is wisely wary.  Apart from the obvious factors of being the last one brought in, and Q still harboring some wariness of his own (we see Q later express concern over how loyal Charlie will be), Charlie declares this the “weakest six in the show’s history”.  Time will bear him out as correct, admittedly, but at the time he said that?  Eh, he’s being a BIT hyperbolic.  This is not as tight a six as one would want, but compared to, say, the personal disfunction that was Casaya (“Survivor Exile Island”)?  I’d give these guys at least a decent chance of sticking together, at least at this point of the episode.  Of course, Casaya functioned in spite of personal animosity, and we’ll later see that this six does no, so maybe not the best comparison.  But on paper, at this point of the episode?  A bit over-the-top.  

But now Q decides to switch up the show he’s on.  No, you’re not watching “Survivor”.  This is now “Shark Tank”, where Q is one-man pitching the titular “Q-Skirt”. This is an innovative garment that looks like an ordinary hoodie, because it IS an ordinary hoodie!  But instead of wearing it normally, you tie it around your waist, hood by your crotch, to use as a “Kangaroo Pouch” to hold whatever you so desire!  Look, in the most GENEROUS interpretation I can give it, this idea is goofy as hell.  Credit where it’s due, however: Q is a brave southern man to suggest men wearing skirts as a regular thing.  That takes some confidence in oneself, and I applaud him for it.  His enthusiasm even wins over the skeptical, both Charlie and Tevin signing up for one when they start getting made.  Guess we know the first item to be made available in Q’s merch store.  

Q isn’t done with the whimsy, however!  Turns out he’s been trying to get a game of Hide and Seek going since the start of the game, and now has enough people to make it actually work.  Tiffany mocks the idea, which I have to say is a bit mean.  There is no age at which Hide and Seek is not fun, Tiffany.  Understandably she’s found fairly early, since she put little effort into it, though she does outlast Liz, at least.  Ben and Hunter are ultimately victorious, the former by camouflaging himself low to the ground with a tarp, the latter by hiding in a.tree above the shelter (which Tevin did predict; they just looked in the wrong trees).  Honestly, this is my favorite scene of the episode.  Just a fun, whimsical passing of the time.  The sort of camp life scene I can get behind.  

Of course, some people still have to make it all about the game of “Survivor”, with Q and Venus in particular both saying that this tell them things about other people in the game.  Some of it I buy.  Q noting that Liz plays hard by going deep in the jungle to look for him, or Venus noting Maria’s resourcefulness in her camouflage headdress, for example?  These make a certain amount of sense, and are traits to look out for moving forward.  But Venus saying Tiffany isn’t playing because she didn’t try very hard, or Q watching out for Hunter and Ben because they won the game?  That seems a bit much to me.  Those things are mostly, if not completely unrelated.  And frankly, the strategizing is unnecessary.  Just let the fun camp game be the fun camp game.  

Speaking of games, Tevin is in the middle of making a chessboard when Venus comes over to talk about her strategy some more.  Tevin butters her up well, though oddly so well that it makes Venus suspicious.  In conferring with Tiffany about it, Tiffany notes that Venus is no threat, and should be kept around as a goat for the end.  She suggests going after Maria.  No justification is given, and it really doesn’t matter.  Tevin brings this back to Q, noting that she’s targeting one of the 6.  

Now, obviously Q reacted badly to someone targeting someone else in the 6 with Tim last episode, but that was with a guy he barely knew, who seemed only half-interested in the alliance anyway.  But this is Q’s #1.  The person he’s stated he’s closest with in this game.  Surely he won’t blow up all of his alliances over one aside comment…

And there goes Q saying Tiffany now has to go.  See, this is why Charlie doesn’t want to work with you too much, my dude!  You fly off the handle at the slightest perceived slight!  If people don’t do exactly what you say, BOOM!  They’re gone in your eyes!  I get the philosophy, but there needs to be some NUANCE.  You spent the last two weeks building this relationship, and you’re going to throw it all out, blow up your main alliance, because of one aside comment?  That’s just bad gameplay!  He even reveals Tiffany’s idol to Maria in the process!  Just thoroughly burning the bridge at that point.  

Also, while I understand what his personal justification would be, I feel duty-bound to point out, Q, that if ANYONE who suggests moving against the 6 needs to go, by definition, YOU would need to be voted out for getting out Tim!  Something that, maybe, Q realizes down the line…

As Probst correctly notes, the challenge today is a good old classic.  The “Hang onto a Pole” challenge first seen on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  Speaking of that season, Probst claims Ozzy set the record at 2 hours, and that seems to pass muster.  Yet, I somehow feel like the Vanuatu version went longer.  If so, mention it!  I will not stand for this Twila erasure!  Anyway, point being, good challenge to bring back.  

This being the final 10 means it’s also time for rice negotiations, and I will give people credit that they TRY to negotiate, but Probst stands firm.  That, plus the combination of Probst not knifing the bag?  Way lowers this one in my estimation.  

However, the cast does make up for the lackluster proceedings a bit by actually not going for it!  Q and Liz are ultimately the only ones who volunteer (reasonably so, since they’re the first two out, as we soon see), and Probst needs four.  Actually a good bit of drama, though again, Probst’s countdown could be improved by having it be rice draining from a knifed bag instead.  Come on, that was one of the coolest things last season; bring it back!  

After Q “throws the challenge” again, and Liz falls off, we get a few more drops, and then the banter starts.  Say what you will about this season, but it has good banter, and good running gags. When Probst announces they’re seven minutes it, he gets corrected to “Several”, doubtless making Jelinsky feel a good amount of joy.  Dude may have been voted out first, and may have looked kind of ridiculous, but he’s added to the “Survivor” lexicon, as Probst notes, and that’s a feat in and of itself.  Q continues to pitch The Q Skirt, saying everyone here will get a free one.  He revokes Probst’s however, when Probst mocks his challenge performance.  Fair enough.  Again, loving the banter, loving the rapport.  

Charlie and Venus both highlighted wanting to play in this challenge, so you’d expect one of them to win.  Instead, anticlimactically, Hunter wins, showing off at the end by hanging JUST FROM HIS LEGS!  Seriously, dude freaked me out.  Challenge may have bene a foregone conclusion, as Q notes, but at least the banter makes up for it.  

After Q gets his “temper tantrum” as he’ll later call it over the rice out of the way, we find out that indeed, the plan to blindside Tiffany was not just a whim, but what Q actually wants to do.  I have already outlined the reasons this is stupid, so we need an alternate target, one that can be much more reasonable.  Sure enough, Liz’s Big-Move-Itis rears its head again, and she hops on the “Get Out Tevin” train.  Not sure WHY she wants out Tevin, aka the one guy who’s seemed to give her the time of day, but I suppose there’s the whole “Claim Credit” thing discussed earlier, in her mind.  Venus is, of course, on board, but as soon as this gets to the 6, they’re going to turn it on Liz.  That would make sense, right?

Actually, NO!  Instead, pretty much everyone is on board with this!  Ok, Kenzie and Tiffany I get since they’re not as committed to the 6 (and in Kenzie’s case, not even in the 6), and want Yanu to remain invisible.  But Charlie and Maria?  What good does this do you?  Showing that Q hasn’t fully burned the Tiffany bridge (yet), and highlighting precisely WHY he should want to keep her around, Tiffany lets Q in on the plan, over the objections of Liz.  Q, naturally, runs to Hunter with this news.  To give Q his due, he DOES seem willing to let this one go, even though it’s not the plan he came up with.  Hunter, however, is not, and so goes over to Charlie, Maria, and Liz to discuss things, aka the thing Q asked him explicitly not to do!  This also clues in Liz on the original Tiffany plan, which she doesn’t seem surprised by.  Perhaps that was more public knowledge than we thought.  

The ladies, sans Liz and Maria, notice this, and so Venus goes over to interrupt, lest the target turn back on her.  Honestly, good on her!  One of the reasons I find “Survivor Redemption Island” so frustrating is that the players there let social norms get in the way of shaking up the game.  You’re on the outs anyway!  Disrupt their dynamic somehow!  They can only vote you out slightly sooner than they otherwise would have!  So, kudos to Venus for trying to shake that up.  She’s not that effective at it, but the effort is there, and appreciated.  

So yeah, our choices have boiled down to Tiffany and Tevin, two people nobody should be looking to get out just yet, since the 6 technically have a majority.  Whoever you vote out, you break up the 6.  No wonder Charlie has no faith in you all.  This is also, incidentally, where Charlie learns about Tiffany’s idol.  Put a gun to my head, I’d say Tevin is the SLIGHTLY better option to go with, since Nami has more members left at this point, but that’s VERY slight.  Again, the ultimate takeaway here is that both options are terrible.  

Luckily for those two, a new, better target presents themselves at Tribal Council.  That target is Q, who again goes on his “I let people down” self-pity rant like he did during Yanu’s losing streak earlier in the season.  Only this time, there’s no indication of it being an act, like he told us his previous “Vote me out” wish was.  

Really, I can find no logic in this.  Was Q upset that his alliance was falling apart, largely by his own hand?  Was it because of the failed rice negotiations?  Did he legitimately think he failed because of Hunter’s talk?  I DON’T KNOW!  I can’t fathom the logic here!  If I were to TRY and look at it in the best light possible, I COULD say he’s doing a Zane Knight (“Survivor Philippines”) and trying to get people to WANT to keep him around.  Seems like they already did, so like with Zane, this is a stupid plan!  And again, I have no idea if that’s what Q was thinking!  Frankly, I’m not sure Q was thinking at this point.  But hey, at least he’s staying true to wanting people who move against the 6 voted out.  

Naturally, all hell breaks loose, and we have a legit “Live Tribal” with everyone strategizing on the fly.  Tiffany finds out that she was targeted, and that Q blabbed about her idol.  Tevin wants to go along with Q’s request to be voted out.  Charlie and Maria have no idea what to do.  It’s chaos, and decently fun chaos, but again, I thought we were done with whispering at Tribal.  Why bring it back?  

In case it wasn’t clear, Q is the obvious correct boot.  With all this dissension, the 6 is dead at this point, so that’s no longer a consideration.  Q’s erratic gameplay, at this point, is such that he cannot be trusted as an ally, and thus has little use to anyone left in the game.  Granted, after this stunt I don’t see him getting votes in the end, but that’s a long way to drag a goat, and Venus is right there.  Better to eliminate the X factor and be done with it.  Hey, at least this made for a lot of fun “WTF?” Voting confessionals, and Ben even gets to bring back “That Does Not Rock”!  Good on him, getting his catchphrase in again!

Does this group do the sensible thing?  Of course not!  Pretty much everyone turns on Tevin, sending him home WITHOUT Q GETTING EVEN A SINGLE VOTE?  Them not wanting to change on the fly I could MAYBE understand, but after that performance, after that perfect demonstration of what makes an unreliable ally, not a single person votes Q?  I don’t understand these people.  

Yeah, I’m sorry to see Tevin go.  He definitely didn’t deserve it after that stunt Q pulled, and contrary to what I thought of him pre-season, dude was charming, and even a decent strategist.  Fun as Q is, he could wear out his welcome over time, and I wouldn’t say that would be the case for Tevin.  As such, this is a bummer.  

While figuring out the logic of these people eludes me, I have figured out this season: This is the “Survivor Gabon” of the new era.  Big characters?  Slow pre-merge?  Gameplay based more on personal grudges and fleeting vibes than on actual strategy?  This has Gabon written all over it.  Granted, it’s not as over-the-top as Gabon, but it also lacks the more hate-filled moments of that season, so it kind of balances out.  As such, I foresee this being a “Love it or Hate it” season, near the top or bottom of everyone’s favorites, depending on how they feel about drama.  

As a lover of Gabon, after tonight, I’m kind of high on this season!  Yeah, the start has been slow, but there was some good, entertaining chaos tonight!  If that momentum can keep up, we may yet have a legendary season on our hands!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Episode Several: Wrapped Up With A Nice Little Bow

Inanimate objects, done properly, can become a character in and of themselves.  On “Survivor” immunity idols are the most common example of this, but sometimes people can create their own.  And we may just have one of those tonight.  That was a MAGNIFICENT Buff Bow on Kenzie’s head!  Even with all the emotion at her Tribal Council, I think it stole the show.  

But I’m getting ahead of myself.  While the tribe was unified against Moriah last episode, there was still the stray Venus vote to consider.  Consider it Venus does, and given how she is, she naturally jumps to the conclusion that it was cast by Soda.  Understandable, given how the pair have been interacting these past few days, but wrong.  Soda of course denies this, but this only convinces Venus further.  Everyone, Tevin in particular, is prepared to sit back and watch the fireworks.  

Charlie, then, is the rain that cancels the fireworks.  He comes clean to Venus that he was the stray vote against her.  I have to ask… WHY?  How does this benefit Charlie in any way?  Venus didn’t even suspect him, and this was tearing Nami, the biggest threat to Siga, apart.  Now she knows you moved against her, and Venus does not strike me as the type to forgive and forget.  Even in a best-case scenario, where she decides she has bigger fish to fry and doesn’t immediately try and get you out, say goodbye to that jury vote.  

So egregious is this error that Coach Q comes out again.  He sits Charlie down on the beach (with Tim also there), and just reads him the riot act about how he screwed up a good position.  Not saying Q is wrong, but unsolicited advice is not going to win hearts and minds.  Charlie defuses the situation by “apologizing”, which at least shuts Q up, but this has turned him against Q.  I don’t agree with his conclusion that “Q is running the show” based on this; at worst Q is being a bit too blunt.  It DOES show, however, that Q doesn’t respect your game, and that alone is a reason to work against him.  Point being, Q may be right about what is and isn’t a smart move, but he’s not winning friends with his style of interaction.  

After our intro, we get another scene at night, though this one a bit less confrontational.  Ben wakes up in the middle of a panic attack, and worried about how he’ll be perceived as a result.  Luckily Kenzie is used to this sort of thing, other members of her family having been through similar experiences, so she is able to assist him and comfort him.  She admits that this is something beyond the game, and she’s doing it out of general, human kindness.  Honestly, it’s a very effective scene.  A nice bit of calm before the strategizing storm, and one that didn’t need to be bolstered by turning it into a sob story.  Oddly, the understatement makes the moment more powerful, and frankly it’s just a highlight of the episode.  Well done, show.  

Because we have to stick with the stupid “Split Tribal” twist, we can’t have any more camp scenes for now.  Instead we have to cut straight to our Immunity Challenge, which is the “Stand on the Triangles” one first seen on “Survivor Caramoan”.  A challenge so boring and predictable I’m more fascinated by them using the buff design along the side of the platform in the water.  Nice touch.  

This is also where we get our first look at the Immunity Idol for this season, at least the individual one.  Solid design, in my opinion.  Reminiscent of the one from “Survivor Cambodia”, with red as a main color and a similar outline.  Being made of beads and adding geckos does help make it unique.  Maybe not an idol for the history books, but a solid entry regardless.  

I will say what this challenge lacks in interest in and of itself, it makes up for in banter.  After Probst notes that the calmer conditions compared to the last time this was run (“Survivor 42”), Q suggests playing the “Alphabet Game” with city names, without actually explaining what the Alphabet Game actually is.  A fact that comes back to bite him in the butt when basically everyone starts violating what Q perceives as the rules.  Hunter starts off with “A for Atlanta”, but then Ben gets knocked out due to not saying that again, despite saying both “Boston” and “Baltimore”.  Liz does get the C in there, but again fails to name the previous names, despite Q saying this must be done.  It’s capped off with Charlie saying he gets it, only to make the same mistake as Liz.  Pretty sure that last one, at least, was intentional.  Seems like too good an opportunity for Charlie to tweak Q’s nose in a joking manner for him not to take it.  

Q, incidentally, is the first one out of this challenge, followed shortly by Ben from his team, leaving Kenzie, Tiffany, Hunter, and Tim up on their side.  Soda falls at about the same time, but she’s on the opposite team, leaving Charlie, Maria, Tevin, Venus, and Liz up for them.  Despite being sidelined, Q still keeps up a good bit of commentary.  He explains to Probst how “Black folks ask what time it is.”, which Probst takes in stride.  When Q goes silent, he explains that he was taught to shut up if he’s not in the game.  Evidently unable to stand the silence, Tim pulls a Gabler (“Survivor 43”), and starts shouting out various people the audience doesn’t know during the challenge.  Q mocks him for this, only for Tim to remind him what his dad taught him about shutting up.  It’s honestly the one thing making this challenge fun, and it helps that it’s clearly just the cast having fun with one another, and no one taking the talk too seriously.  Probst even gets in on the fun a bit, reminding us of Jelinsky’s “Several=7” point from earlier in the season.

Eventually the challenge must get serious, though, and everyone transitions to standing on one foot.  Brenda Lowe and Andrea Boehlke can rest easy knowing their impromptu rule on the first run of this challenge remains an official part of it now.  This leads to several dropouts, but Kenzie, despite winning immunity, drops before either Tevin or Maria.  This means her team will miss out on a reward, and go to Tribal Council first, meaning whoever leaves misses the jury.  As for Tevin and Maria, they have a good battle, with Tevin even having a spectacular comeback from nearly falling over.  IN the end, though, Maria’s lower center of gravity wins the day, and she snags immunity.  

Our teams are sent to separate camps, with the winning six going to the current merge camp.  Here we find out the new tribe is dubbed “Nuinui”.  No real complaints here on that one.  The name is a decent length, and obviously Polynesian in origin (granted Fiji is in MELANESIA, but given they’re part of the same language family, I’ll take it at this point).  That said, all it really makes me want to do is get out my old Bionicle toys again.  

Despite winning, not everyone is happy.  Charlie notes that he’s in an exceptionally precarious spot, being one of only two original Siga on the tribe, and the other having immunity.  He realizes he’s exceptionally vulnerable, a status that Tevin confirms.  Tevin, however, is not content to just let things sit on the obvious target, telling us that he wants to invoke the “First Blindside of the Season”.  Jem might take issue with that characterization, Tevin.  

Over with our losers, Hunter is feeling nervous for similar reasons to Charlie.  He tells us he intents to play his idol tonight, a move I can’t really fault.  True, there is the “Journey 6” alliance he could trust in, but he is the only person without an initial-tribe ally in this group.  Further, he’s a noted physical threat at a rare moment without having immunity, making him a tempting target.  

Certainly Tim thinks so, since he tells Q that Hunter should obviously go.  Q, however, thinks it equally obvious that Ben should go.  After all, Nami is at each other’s throats, and Ben is the only one in this group not part of the “Journey 6”.  Ok, Kenzie technically isn’t either, but she’s immune, and Q is unlikely to go against an original Yanu at this juncture.  A member of the “Journey 6”, however?  He’ll turn on them in a heartbeat, now insisting it has to be Tim for his wishy-washy-ness.  A bit early to be turning on him, but also a bit early to be giving my thoughts on the targeting on these tribes.  

I will say, however, that I don’t buy for one minute that Q intentionally lost that challenge.  It was one that didn’t cover his skill set, and he lied to save face.  Understandable, but either Q’s a far better actor than I credit him, or he’s lying to the camera to save face.  

For now, let’s return to our winners, who have the more intriguing strategy.  Tevin is not the only one who wants to “Make a move”.  Soda is ready to get Venus out, and tries to enlist Charlie and Maria to that end, once everyone is done “napping” on the beach.  Understandable, given their tiff, but also a bad move for Soda.  She’s already kind of screwed since she’s not going to the end with Vcnus, and therefore if she IS in the end, Venus is guaranteed to be on the jury.  Guess who Venus will never vote for in a million years?  Even so, better to have her on the jury later than earlier, lest she poison the whole bunch against you.  

This, however, is not enough of a blindside for Tevin, who marshals Liz, along with a presumed Charlie and Maria, to get out Soda.  He considers her, fairly, to be a social threat.  Can’t deny the logic there.  Not content with this, however, Soda approaches Maria and Charlie individually to blindside Tevin.  Charlie seems on board, at least in part because he prefers ANY plan that doesn’t involve him getting voted out, but Maria is a bit more hesitant.  She wants to keep her options open with the “Journey 6”, and Tevin is a part of that.  Hence, conflict, even if getting out Tevin would be the thing to break Nami apart completely.  

Things get worse for Venus when, having already come on strong with Maria, she pushes her again.  Maria, pretty reasonably, gives Venus advice on how to come at people.  She sympathizes with Venus due to her age, but notes that people don’t like being told what to do.  This advice goes in one ear and out the other, Venus chalking it up to their age disparity.  Way to not work on yourself, Venus.  That said, she does at least tone it back to a vote against Soda, something Charlie and Maria are much more likely to go with.  They confer on the beach, Charlie noting that he’s weirdly safe.  Not sure how much of that is due to his effort as much as Nami being a hot mess, but still, good for him.  

As our targets for this group are now firmly set on either Soda or Venus, time to discuss what the best move is.  Clearly, between these two, it’s Soda.  She’s the more subtle player, and Venus’ presence will continue to make Nami at least seem more fractured (if not actually be more fractured), thus making them seem less threatening.  Further, Venus has so buried herself socially she’s unlikely to win many jury votes, and isn’t much of a challenge threat.  If she gets to the end, well, easier victory for you.  Might as well chop Soda off now.  Not to mention that Venus, if the first juror unanimously, will likely poison the jury against all of you.  Yeah, clearly go for Soda.  

In regards to our other group, there is dissension amongst the ranks.  Kenzie, admittedly, is happy with going for Tim, since her and Ben kind of vibe.  Tiffany less so.  That said, props to Ben for catching that Kenzie was not being 100% up front with him.  I thought Kenzie lied pretty effectively there, but he sussed it right out.  

Tim pitches Hunter to the group, who agree to split votes, but Q turns it on Tim as soon as he leaves.  Tiffany agrees with this, correctly noting that Nami is easy to break up, while Siga is less so.  However, Ben comes across as slightly sketchy when Q talks to him, leading to Q turning it back on Ben.  This makes Tiffany happy, but not Kenzie, especially since Q seems to waffle back and forth, and doesn’t let them get much of a word in edgewise.  

This leads to the promised pair discussing Q “running the show”, and predictably, the preview played this up.  Don’t misunderstand, there is a legit issue between them and Q, but it was built up to go somewhere tonight.  Had Charlie been in this group I might have bought it, but no.  Instead, they just note that Q is a bit inflexible, and also a bit prone to changing his mind.  All fair criticisms.  I might sum it up in that Q is a very binary player.  You’re either fully in agreement with him, or fully disagree with him.  Not much room for nuance in the world of Q.  On the one hand, if you’re truly his ally, this can be a great thing!  After all, as long as you don’t piss him off, you can guarantee he’ll stick with you.  That said, as we saw with Ben, staying on his good side is not so easy.  It’s not clear what exactly Ben did to turn Q against him from their conversation, but it flipped Q’s mind completely.  That can be a problem, so it’s understandable that they would consider moving against him.  But, as they note, it’s probably too early.  

With Hunter not much in contention, the debate is between Tim and Ben, and once again the answer of who should go is clear.  Ben is a social threat no one there apart from Tim has really connected with.  Tim is a much more predictable player, and keeping him around prevents the “Journey 6”, which Q at least is pushing hard, from fracturing.  Ben is the clear better choice here.  

We’re also left with little doubt that Ben will go, since he gets all the emotional content at Tribal.  He goes over his panic attack again, and everyone gives him sympathy, while also noting there are human moments outside the game.  Q, for his part, is also courteous, giving Kenzie major props for winning immunity.  The real star of the show, however, is Kenzie’s giant bow buff.  An hour after the episode aired, and I still love that thing.  

For as much as I hate the “Split Tribal” twist at this juncture, the show got a good draw here.  You can have the emotional climax first with this group, then the strategic one with the next.  Not intentional on their part, obviously, but a good way to balance it out, and not feel like we’re waiting for one group or the other to go.  Going to commercial in the middle before an obvious boot like this is a bit much, but hey, the other group has enough mystery to keep us happy regardless.  

Yet, once again, the show gets me.  Tim goes, which I absolutely DID NOT expect.  Good trick, editors.  The bad decision for basically everyone but Kenzie, but definitely an audience blindside.  That said, from a character standpoint, much the better decision.  Ben may not do it for me as a character, but he’s more interesting than Tim, who basically brought nothing.  Seems like a nice enough guy, but just not good tv, sadly.  I will, however, give Hunter some praise for not playing his idol.  Granted, he probably had a lot of trust in what Q was saying, so it’s not the weirdest decision ever, but still, he had valid reasons to believe he would be targeted.  Good on him for saving his idol.  

As mentioned, our second Tribal Council is the strategic climax of the episode.  Logically, this makes for less exciting banter at Tribal, with it being mostly the stuff you’d expect.  Charlie bringing up his Shot in the Dark.  Venus and Soda bringing up the tribe divisions.  We do get a couple of unusual moments, like Liz catching flak for not bringing her bag.  I do have to deduct points on Maria, however, for using a metaphor where one wasn’t asked for.  Don’t encourage Probst, Maria.  

Oddly, despite this being the more unpredictable vote, it’s also the more underwhelming one.  The group does the smart thing and votes Soda out.  She’s a bit teary about the whole thing, but thankfully she at least gets to sit on the jury.  I’m not the biggest fan of Venus, but I am glad she stayed, if only for the drama she brings.  If Ponderosa videos were still a thing, I’d want her on the jury as early as possible, but as is?  I’m fine with this.  

For the episode as a whole, it weirdly fails kind of in spite of itself.  The humor was on point, the editing top-notch.  We had good mystery, and a lot of good character bits.  Yet I confess myself, underwhelmed.  I don’t hate this episode, but it just kind of came and went with little fanfare for me.  I think it’s just a victim of how much had to be stuffed in.  With this many people, and two Tribal Councils, it just feels bloated.  The superiority of the previous factors helps make up for it, but there’s only so much you can do with this format.  Yet another reason to vary things up, show.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 46” Cast Assessment

Folks, I have an important announcement to make: Not only do we have the newly-officially-released cast of “Survivor 46” to discuss today, but the production team have also given us a rare peak behind the curtain.  A glimpse at the inner workings.  We now know the key factor it takes to get cast on this show.  The answer is: Be a gutsy idiot.  

Yes, do you value stability in your life?  Do you feel like taking the safe route when it comes to your personal finances?  Good for you, but get out of the applicant pool!  We only want people who throw away something they’ve worked toward on a wing and a prayer here!

I mock, I mock, but I do so out of love.  Honestly, good for all the people on the cast who did this.  Clearly if worked out for them, and if they’re happy (and not harming anyone in the process), then power to them, I say.  And certainly “Survivor” is no stranger to casting people like this; the list of people who’d taken major risks like this in their personal lives is innumerable for this show.  But this season really feels like they amped that up, or at least put emphasis on it.  Nearly everyone in their bio talks about changing their job to follow their passion.  Again, fair enough for them, but a bit on-the-nose as far as casting goes. Now then, snark out of the way, onto the assessment itself, starting with:

Jemila “Jem” Hussain-Adams (32, International Brand Mentor, Chicago, IL, Siga Tribe): I personally am not a fan of doing such things myself, but were I to ask an AI to write me up a “Generic Survivor Contestant Biography”, I feel like Jem’s is what it would give me.  Someone fun-loving and social.  Says they’re not interested in something if it’s not risky.  Did a fair number of extreme outdoor activities.  Lists as similar players “Boston Rob, Tony Vlachos, Kelley Wentworth”, aka “The relatively famous players most people will know by now.”  Very much gives the impression of someone semi-familiar with the show, but not a superfan.  I know this is making out Jem as someone who’s kind of bland and can’t hack it, but sometimes this stuff is all you need.  Hence, we are getting my first winner pick of the season out of the way early.  Jem does have a few specific things going for her related to her bio/photo.  She grew up in Berbice, Guyana, and her discussion of it implies that she spent at least part of her adult life there. Thus, she might be more used to the tropical climate of Fiji than we might otherwise credit her.  Based on the photo, she doesn’t look like she’ll be a challenge liability, which is always a plus.  But really, I’d say her biggest upside is that she doesn’t seem to have a major weakness.  For all the comparisons she makes, I’d compare her to “Survivor Kaoh Rong” winner Michele Fitzgerald the most.  Specifically, it’s not that she stands out, or does anything spectacularly well, but that she does nothing badly.  She’s not a challenge beast, but not weak enough to be taken out specifically for that.  She’s not a shy introvert, but not a loud, over-the-top personality either.  This season doesn’t skew quite as young as other recent ones, but has a lot of people in their “late 20’s, early 30’s”, and Jem slots right in that demographic nicely.  She’s not a game-bot, but she knows the strategy well enough to get by.  And sometimes, getting by is all you need.  Honestly, the biggest weakness of this type of game is that it can falter if the team goes to a lot of early Tribal Councils, but while there is no “disaster tribe” this season, based on the rumored divisions, there is a “strong tribe” of the season, and I see Siga rarely, if ever, going to Tribal Council pre-merge.  This gives Jem all the time she needs to integrate, and by the time of the merge, there’s bigger fish to fry.  Expect her to unexpectedly sneak to the end, only to give a banger performance at Final Tribal Council, and then sweep up far more votes than those with her would have expected.  

Ben Katzman (31, Musician, Miami, FL, Siga Tribe): Ben compares himself to Nick Wilson (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Cody Assenmacher (“Survivor 43”), but like with Jem, I think he misses the mark on the true comparison.  If there is a second coming of Vince Sly of “Survivor World’s Apart”, it’s this guy.  You all remember Vince, right?  The “Coconut Vendor who Seeks Truth”.  Yeah, that over-the-top character.  The beachy guy who quit a job (in this case, more professional music production) to follow his dream (in this case, just making the music he wants). Transplant Vince from the west coast to the east, and you’ve basically got Ben.  Luckily for Ben, he seems like enough of a challenge asset that, in the unlikely event that his tribe goes to Tribal Council pre-merge, he won’t be a target despite his potentially grating personality.  That said, don’t expect him to get too far.  That personality can get old fast, and while he might survive mergeatory, don’t expect him to get much past that.  An early-merge boot due to just being difficult to live with, and if there’s another “split tribal right after the merge”, I’d say that’s where his game runs out.  

Jessica “Jess” Chong (37, Software Engineer, San Francisco, CA, Yanu Tribe): I feel for Jess, I really do.  She seems very nice, and not quite as over-the-top in the whole “career change” thing as others this season (yes, she did change jobs, but she stayed in her field, just working for herself rather than a corporation).  She even has good self knowledge, comparing herself to Tai (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), Gabby (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”), and Maryanne (“Survivor 42”).  All players I quite like.  However, despite all their good track records, they are not necessarily the formula for success on “Survivor”.  Aside from there only being one winner out of the three, this is a personality than can be hard to live with, particularly on small tribes, and unfortunately, Jess doesn’t have the luxury of being on the tribe unlikely to go to Tribal Council.  Honestly, I think her time in the game is largely going to depend on how well she individually does at challenges.  I don’t think she’s first out of her tribe either way, but if they go on a losing streak, she’s an easy pre-merge casualty.  If she only attends one or two pre-merge Tribal Councils, and doesn’t cost her tribe any challenges, then she probably makes a deep late-merge run.  Kind of a wishy-washy answer, I know.  If you put my feet to the fire, and force me to pick one, I’d sadly have to say that Jess is probably a pre-merge boot, though less due to her own faults, and more due to some people just needing to go there, and there not being a lot of obvious pre-merge fodder amongst this cast compared to some other recent ones I could name.  

Bhanu Gopal (41, IT Quality Analyst, Acton, MA, Yanu Tribe): So remember how I just said it was difficult to figure out who the pre-merge boots were this season?  Well, that goes double for predicting the first boot.  Seriously, this is the hardest time I’ve had selecting someone to be the first boot in these predictions.  Usually SOMEONE jumps out, or gives off that vibe, but this season?  I can only rely on the data, and sadly, Bhanu has a lot of data points working against him, in my view.  I’ll credit him that he’s one of the few who DOESN’T mention upending his career in his biography, which I would say would lead to more stable, consistent gameplay, normally a good thing.  But this career upending is SO pervasive this season, that I’m not sure that style of play is going to work.  In fact, it might work against Bhanu here, since his philosophy on life is so different from most of the rest of the cast.  Again, it could work given time, but time is not something I feel comfortable saying this tribe has.  Add on him comparing himself to Cochran of “Survivor South Pacific” and “Survivor Caramoan” (someone most vulnerable in the early game), and describing himself as an introvert (thus needing more time to build the relationships he’d need to survive), and there’s just a lot working against the guy.  While this is a slightly older cast on average than previous ones, 41 is still a bit outside the average.  I don’t think age will be a major factor, but if his age shows in his challenge performance, then he’s an easy early pick to go.  To me, he doesn’t look like he’ll be a challenge liability, but then again, I thought Brandon on “Survivor 45” would be good in challenges, so we see how good I am at eyeballing that particular game aspect.  Reluctantly, I must make Bhanu my pick for first boot, as he just has too much against him.  I hope I’m wrong, however.  

Kenzie Petty (29, Salon Owner, Charlotte, NC, Yanu Tribe): Kenzie quickly won her way into my heart by being an avowed “Settlers of Catan” fan.  Now, winning your way to my heart won’t necessarily make me give you good odds at going deep in the game, but even taking my feelings out of it as much as possible, I give Kenzie decent odds.  Again, bearing in mind my previous comments about me not being good at picking who’s going to be good in challenges, Kenzie seems like she at least won’t be a liability.  While she is loud and a stand-out, both in personality and looks, it’s not so much so that it would strike me as grating, and I see there being more valuable targets to take out on Yanu.  Unless they go full disaster (which, despite my earlier comments, I have my doubts), Kenzie probably sticks around for a good bit.  Kenzie also does a good job balancing the free-spiritedness of the cast as a whole with practicality, since her “job story” is less about leaving a job for another one than it is not doing as much pre-planning when seizing an opportunity presented.  Like I said before, I’d normally consider such a jump a liability, but with this cast, it should vibe well, and comes across to me as less inherently risky.  As long as she has some good game sense, Kenzie should stick around until the mid-to-late merge.  Honestly, the fact that she DOES stand out in a couple of aspects is the only thing stopping me from making her a winner pick.  

Charlie Davis (26, Law Student, Boston, MA, Siga Tribe): Charlie is a nerd through-and-through, and wears it on his sleeve.  Don’t believe me?  He compares himself to Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) and Christian Hubicki (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  If only he had thrown in Cochran, he’d have hit the “nerd” trifecta.  Self-knowledge is a good thing for sure, and the upside for Charlie is that he’s on the tribe I don’t see visiting Tribal Council much, if at all.  Prove yourself in a puzzle or two, and you’re probably set for the merge.  The downside for Charlie is that, with his nerd-dom on his sleeve, everyone else can see it too.  With “Survivor 44” and Carson being particularly fresh in everyone’s minds for this season, I doubt anyone is going to let him get super-close to the end.  Hence, Charlie is probably an easy target in the early-merge, and goes somewhere in there.  Not much more to say about him than that.  Nice guy, but an archetype we know well, and fairly predictable in how he’ll do as a result.  

Liz Wilcox (35, Marketing Strategist, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): Yes, lest you thought “Survivor” was going to shake things up, there are still three tribes this season.  It just took us until Liz to actually talk about someone from Nami.  And as the first representative of her tribe… Liz isn’t the best.  She looks like another fun nerd, though she compares herself to Russell (presumably Hantz of “Survivor Samoa”) and Sandra (“Survivor Pearl Islands”), neither of which seem like a fit for her from how she describes herself.  Neither of them strike me as “Fun-seeking” or “Growth-minded”.  Also don’t know if she’s just not a big fan of the show and has thus only heard of some of the bigger names, or just really loves “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”.  Either is plausible, quite frankly.  Liz has a great story about overcoming a fear of public speaking and general social awkwardness.  Great for her, and while it means she probably has good social skills that she’s learned, one tends to revert to one’s personal habits in a deprivation situation, so I could see those not being as honed as Liz normally has them.  If she does do that, she’s in trouble.  Any sort of social awkwardness is a reason to get someone out, and Liz is also one of the few challenge sinks I see on this season, so I don’t see much reason to keep her around if they attend Tribal Council at all.  I don’t think she’s the very first boot, but definitely another pre-merger.  And we will be all the sadder for it.  

David “Jelinsky” Jelinsky (22, Slot Machine Salesman, Las Vegas, NV, Yanu Tribe): In the contest of “Who did the craziest/riskiest thing with their life this season”, I think I have to give the award to Jelinsky here.  While lots of other people changed careers, or up-sticks and moved without much of a plan, Jelinsky outright dropped out of high school.  Folks who wanted non-college-educated people on the show, you got your wish.  Jelinsky does have several things working in his favor this season.  Chief amongst them is that he’s a young, athletic guy on a season without a lot of those.  Pre-merge, at least, that makes him valuable, especially since he’s on a tribe with a bit of a dearth of strength.  A career in sales, as we’ve seen with several recent contestants, can be good preparation for the show.  And amongst his contestant comparisons, he lists a number of players who saw success with “playing dumb”, something that, between the looks he has and the skill set he has, is a pretty good strategy for him to take up.  That said, Jelinsky does also have a few red flags that seriously hurt his chances in the game.  The big one is age.  Like I said, this season skews slightly older than more recent seasons have.  Now, early 20’s isn’t that far off from late 20’s, but it’s still a gap Jelinsky will have to bridge, and if he’s perceived as too much of a “kid”, a la Xander of “Survivor 41”, it may not matter how good of a game he plays, as no one on the jury will respect it.  Secondly, and this may be me reading too much into things, but Jelinsky strikes me as having a bit of an ego.  Maybe it’s his asking to be referred to by his last name, maybe it’s how he talks about himself in the third person, but this strikes me as a guy who won’t be quiet, and thus rub others the wrong way.  His strength being a necessary asset, plus his salesman skills, probably carry him through to the merge, but expect him to be the mergeatory or early merge boot, due to these red flags.  

Maria Shrime Gonzales (48, Parent Coach, Dallas, TX, Siga Tribe): Right away, the thing that stands out about Maria is her age.  This cast may not skew as young as more recent casts do, but even then, Maria is a bit without peer.  There’s a couple of other players in their 40’s, but it’s EARLY 40’s for them, meaning Maria’s closest peers in this game, by age, are still seven years apart.  Not an insurmountable gap, but one she’ll have to overcome.  On top of that, she seems less “free-spirited” than the rest of the cast, as she’s notably one of the few who didn’t mention upending their life to follow their dream.  She’s still driven and has values, of course, but she seems a bit more circumspect about going through it rather than just winging it and seeing what happens.  Add onto that her very much exuding the “mom” archetype, which has traditionally been a very “all or nothing” type in terms of how they do, and you’ve got a recipe for a player with high risk in the early game.  Luckily for Maria, she’s placed on Siga, the tribe I would say is least likely to attend a pre-merge Tribal Council.  IF they do, look for Maria to be in trouble, but I don’t see that happening. Historically, once the mom archetype makes the merge, they tend to do quite well, and I don’t anticipate Maria being an exception to that.  She seems to have enough game acumen and enough of a level head to play well.  As we saw last season, however, the finally hurdle for this archetype is getting past the “being too likable” issue, and I don’t see Maria avoiding that.  She’ll be taken out either in the finale or just before it as a jury threat, but still, expect a deep post-merge run from Maria.  Sometimes a good hand is all you need.  

Hunter McKnight (28, Science Teacher, French Camp, MS, Nami Tribe): I went back and forth between two people for whom I would give my second winner pick two, but ultimately, after much agonizing, I have settled on it being Hunter.  I don’t know, the dude reminds me of Tommy Sheehan (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and that means “winner energy” for me.  I don’t know, maybe it’s just them both being teachers, maybe it’s the reddish hair, but I have to keep reminding myself that Hunter is not Tommy.  Hey, if you’re gonna remind me of a previous player, a skilled winner is hardly a bad one.  Not that Hunter’s personal pick for comparison is bad either.  He went with Hayden (“Survivor Blood vs. Water”), which I appreciate for being a bit of a deep cut into “Survivor” history at this point, but one with a decent strategic record (albeit no victory).  Hunter is also another one I’d say is more reasonable in dropping something in life to pursue a passion, since in Hunter’s case he dropped further study to go back and teach in his hometown.  Dropping out for an established, stable career, even one not as well-paying, speaks to a good bit of common sense that can serve him well in the game.  That said, it’s enough “free-spirited-ness” that it won’t be off-putting to the rest of his cast.  All in all, Hunter is a very well-rounded player, and thus one I expect to do quite well.  Granted, between my two picks, I would go with Jem over Hunter, only because I had to agonize more over his pick where Jem felt quite natural, but again, not knocking Hunter.  Dude’s got skills.  

Moriah Gaynor (28, Program Coordinator, San Diego, CA, Siga Tribe): Every tribe these days has to have their designated “nerd”, and Moriah is that for Siga (guess Saga gets two, since Charlie is also here).  That said, I Weill give her credit that she doesn’t wear it as much on her sleeve as the likes of, say, Liz or Charlie this season.  The neediness is there, but more subdued, only coming out in things like the occasional D&D reference.  Being low-key is hardly bad with such small numbers, and couple that with Moriah being on a tribe likely to win a lot of early challenges, she should be sticking around for quite a while, barring an epic challenge fail.  That said, there’s also not a lot to recommend Moriah overall.  Again, nothing bad, nothing detrimental.  But there just doesn’t seem to be that spark, that zest, that drive to go the extra mile to win that the truly spectacular players have.  This to my mind lends Moriah to a solid, but nondescript mid-merge finish.  A solid alliance member, but not a leader, and her exit will not be majorly mourned by most of the community.  

Q Burdette (29, Real Estate Agent, Memphis, TN, Yanu Tribe): Fun fact, this is the first given name in US “Survivor” to start with a Q.  This is also the other guy I was considering for my second winner pick.  In Q’s case, it’s less data based than Hunter’s was, and more about the vibes.  I dunno, some pictures just scream “charming” to me, and Q did just that.  He’s my personal favorite of the season, and despite a relatively bare-bones bio, I quite like him.  I can’t quite say it’s “generic” as there’s a few turns of phrase and bits of info here and there that catch the eye, but the dude seems to have put the minimum effort into what he wrote.  He also gave the lame answer of “Bits and pieces from a lot of players” when asked who he was most like.  That may very well be true, but still, a cop out in my book.  I could talk about the real estate skills being helpful on the show, but that has a bit less impressive a track record than regular sales that I talked about a bit ago, so I’m not sure how much it applies.  Still, Q is a dark horse to win based on charm alone, and I expect him to stick around until the late merge, if not making the finale.  Really, only his lack of concrete data to back up the vibes keeps him out of a proper winner pick.  

Soda Thompson (27, Special Ed. Teacher, Lake Hopatcong, NJ, Nami Tribe): Everyone, we now have a real-life Disney Princess on our season.  Seriously, her risk-taking moment is marrying a guy she hadn’t known for very long; the quintessential Disney Princess move!  Ok, in fairness to Soda, she knew this guy for a much more reasonable six months, and it appears to have worked out, so hey, power to them.  While Q just before may have had the lamest answer to “Which former player are you most like?”, Soda probably wins the award for the weirdest.  Her answer?  “Survivor 42”.  No player, just the season.  What, so you’re like the entire cast rolled into one?  Those are some pretty disparate personalities you’re combining, then.  My take on this is that Soda, more so than anyone this season, doesn’t really know the show that well, and just conjured up a recent bit that she remembered.  This makes me question if she really knows the game at all, and if she can apply her skills where needed.  Look, I’m not going to act like foreknowledge of the game is a REQUIREMENT to do well.  The likes of Yul (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Earl (“Survivor Fiji”) are a testament that it’s not.  But couple that with Soda just seeming generally “nice” (she lists her hobbies as “Singing, taking walks, and doing random crafts”), and I have to think she doesn’t have the cutthroat hard core needed to make a deep run.  Add on her not looking like she’ll be great in challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot.  Sorry, Soda.  You seem nice, but I don’t think the game is for you.  

Randen Montalvo (41, Aerospace Tech, Orlando, FL, Nami Tribe): I strongly, STRONGLY suggest that Randen focus on his military career when discussing what he does with his tribe, rather than mentioning the aerospace thing.  Again, this cast played fresh off the finale of “Survivor 44”, so they saw Carson dominate in puzzles, and nearly win, were it not for fire-making.  He mentions the word “aerospace” to this cast, and he’ll be out faster than a supersonic jet.  Luckily, I think Randen is smart enough to keep that under wraps.  Dude does not look like the sort of guy you’d expect to be an engineer, but if he’s smart enough to be one, he’s smart enough to downplay those smarts, if that makes sense.  Add in some good physicality on a tribe that’s probably going to badly need some physical power for the challenges, and you’ve got a recipe for a decent length run.  Randen probably goes out somewhere in the mid-merge area, since I see enough fellow smart people on this season to suss him out, but early on, at least, he should be fine.  

Tiffany Nicole Ervin (33, Artist, Elizabeth, NJ, Yanu Tribe): Hoo boy.  Some people, their bio just SCREAMS “early boot”.  I can see why Tiffany was cast, though.  She’s a bright, bubbly personality, but that’s where the trouble starts.  Tiffany explains that her friends describe her as “living in a land of rainbows and unicorns”, though she disagrees.  Given her tone in her writing, however, I’m inclined to agree with her friends.  The sort of personality that pops on tv, but probably not the best fit for a treacherous game like “Survivor”.  On top of that, Tiffany admits she likes to play things risky, playing the lottery often in real life.  Again, understandable why that would do well on tv (big moves and all that), but probably not the smartest in terms of overall gameplay.  Unless her tribe has some MAJOR challenge sinks who need to go before her, expect her to go somewhere in the pre-merge.  Again, sorry Tiffany.  You seem nice, but “nice” doesn’t win “Survivor”.  

Tevin Davis (24, Actor, Richmond, VA, Nami Tribe): Fun fact about theater kids: We can sense each other a mile away.  You probably remember Tevin from the season preview.  He was the guy with long hair who screamed upon being given his buff.  I took one look at him and thought “theater kid”.  Sure enough, his bio comes out a few weeks later and confirms it.  Tevin is definitely a loud personality, which on a small tribe can be a problem.  That said, he’s also a young, fit guy on a season where, as mentioned previously, those are in short supply.  His tribe is going to need that, so expect Tevin to stick around for a decent length of time, barring that his tribe goes into being a complete disaster.  Tevin’s acting skills (as in toning down his loud personality) combined with his strength probably get him through to the merge, but there’s only so long you can tone down your personality. Once Tevin opens up, probably during the early merge, he’s going to get grating fast.  Combine that with the threat of an individual immunity run, and Tevin is probably out in the early-to-mid merge, due to being too threatening and too grating.  He will definitely stand out on our screens the whole time, however.  Also, this has literally no bearing on how he’ll do in the game, but I wanted to mention that while he’s currently from Richmond, VA, his hometown is listed as “Goochland, VA”, and childishly, I find that incredibly amusing.  

Venus Vafa (24, Data Analyst, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Nami Tribe): Just when you thought that “Survivor” would learn the threat that Canadian players pose, here comes Venus.  And as if there already wasn’t an uphill battle for Canadians on this show after multiple successful performances, you put on a Canadian who looks woefully unprepared for the game ahead!  Venus seems very worldly, aka “not going to do well in the outdoors”.  She seems like a city girl through and through, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but it does call into question how well she can hack it in the wilderness.  On top of that, when you compare yourself to a character from “Mean Girls”, that implies the starting of much drama.  Good for tv, bad for chances in the game, particularly with the smaller tribe size of the modern era.  That said, I will give Venus two points in her favor.  One is good self-knowledge, since she lists the players she’s most like as being Parvati (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Cirie (“Survivor Exile island”), who if you’re someone who’s not going to be the greatest in the outdoors, well, they pretty much wrote the playbook on how to do well in spite of that.  Assuming the comparison is apt 9which I get the sense it is) Venus does have some good social skills to call upon.  Also in her favor is that, while she’s by no means a challenge beast, she seems competent enough that I don’t see her costing her tribe a challenge, or being the first target if/when they do lose.  Unless she really makes a stink about how hard the elements are for her, I’d expect her to be a late pre-merge, early post-merge boot, depending on how much they do go to Tribal Council.  Not good enough to hack it long term, but at least good enough to survive a few votes.  

Tim Spicer (31, College Coach, Atlanta, GA, Siga Tribe): Rounding out our cast is Tim, who I would argue gives the most questionable answer to any of the bio questions in the entire cast.  Who does he say he’s most like as a player?  Shamar from “Survivor Caramoan”.  Now, as a super fan, I applaud the deep cut from “Survivor” history, and that may be the first time Shamar has gotten a mention since he initially played.  But, Tim, do you REMEMBER Shamar’s game?  Is that REALLY who you want to emulate?  Not exactly setting yourself up for success.  Now, in fairness to Tim, knowledge of game history is generally a good thing, and it MAY just be a bit of an inside joke, given that his previous answer involved an anecdote about gluing his eye shut.  But if it’s not, and Tim emulates his game style, then the only reason he isn’t a pre-merge boot is because his tribe seems unlikely to attend Tribal council in the pre-merge. Dude’s largely unremarkable outside of that one answer, and if the Shamar thing is just a joke, he’s a late-merge boot.  If it ISN’T a joke, he’s an early-merge boot.  Thus, in the spirit of compromise, I’ll split the difference and declare Tim a likely mid-merge boot.  

And that about wraps it up for this cast!  For all my jokes, honestly, this one seems kind of underwhelming.  Hardly an unlikeable cast, and with only one or two exceptions, I had something of substance to say about all of them.  But while I vibed with a couple of people, none of them also really grabbed me like other seasons have.  I doubt it’ll be a BAD season, and there’s always room for me to be proven wrong, but if you’re looking for this to be a legendary season, I’m not holding my breath.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Finale: Bad at Math

There are many skills one needs to be able to win “Survivor”.  Social skills, obviously.  Strategic skills never go amiss.  Skill at finding small objects in the woods is becoming more and more of a valuable tool.  And even basic survival skills still matter, at least a bit.  But one underrated skill is being good at math.  And if you don’t believe that helps on “Survivor”, go back and watch the trials and tribulations of Brad Culpepper on “Survivor Blood vs. Water”.  Man literally leaves because of math.  

After our requisite “ooh”-ing and “aah”-ing at the new camp, we get down to business.  Austin is, of course, rather stunned at Dee leaving him out of the vote, and it’s here we see that Austin’s math skills are a bit wanting.  He talks about having “two number ones”, something that is mathematically impossible in this context.  Still, the dude takes it all in stride.  Perhaps a little TOO in stride.  He acknowledges the “Dee lied to me” portion, but chooses to focus more on the “Dee is still here” portion.  Is he lovesick, or just that chill?  Either way, his chances in the game plummet with each frame.  All is well between the lovers, though, who share a long cuddle on the beach.  

Such a cuddle does not go unnoticed by the others, with Julie joking about sending out a party to let them know they won’t sleep until they come back.  Katurah is a bit sharper in her criticism, noting correctly that a duo is bad for her game, and needs one of them to go.  Probably Dee for being a big jury threat.  Hey, Katurah is finally channeling that anti-Bruce energy into a more strategical-sound place!  Only took all season!

Morning, of course, brings a scramble for a challenge advantage.  Honestly, this scavenger hunt is kind of lame, basically being a repeat of the “Waambulance” challenge from “Survivor Exile Island”.  Run out, find and count the things, use them to solve a combination lock, if you’re wrong you have to go back out for another look.  Take away the ropes course part, and this is a scaled-down copy.  Not the worst challenge, but hardly exciting.  

Everyone talks about the scramble for finding the things, and Dee and Austin collude with one another, but it’s Jake’s slow and steady approach that wins the day, and consequently gets the most focus.  It helps that the mnemonic device was on the editors could have fun with, since Jake associated the number with the winners of the respective season.  Hence, the combination was JT (“Survivor Tocantins”), Gabler (“Survivor 43”), Denise (“Survivor Philippines”), with appropriate clips being shown in the background for each.  As such, he wins the challenge advantage.  

Seems this episode has a thing for combination locks, because they come back in our immunity challenge as well!  They’re also Jake’s advantage, since the numbers are revealed by hurling sandbags into baskets, and Jake starts with two revealed (everyone has a different combination, so peeking off Jake won’t help).  It’s otherwise your standard obstacle course, with the only other point of note being the puzzle at the end.  It’s the Michele Fitzgerald puzzle, first seen on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”.  You know the one.  It always gets kicked down upon completion.  

This season upholds that tradition.  Austin narrowly wins over Jake, in part due to the latter missing a puzzle piece.  Probst, of course, rubs salt in this proverbial wound, though Austin makes up for it by taking Jake along for the “reward” portion of the challenge, a steak meal at The Sanctuary.  Frankly I’m surprised.  The move certainly makes strategic sense (keep your number one ally with two likely boots to make sure you get the scoop on all discussions), but so lovestruck is Austin, I fully expect him to pick Dee.  

Good for Jake getting some food in him, though.  Like I said at the end of last blog, the man is not completely out of it for winning, but really needs things to go right for him.  And that starts with him playing his idol correctly in order to idol out a threat, preferably Dee.  In order to do this, it’s best if no one (save possibly Katurah) knows about it… And then Jake starts spilling his guts about it to Austin.  Yeah, see why I don’t give this guy great odds?  Worse still is his stated intention to target Julie.  Not a bad one, but again, I think Dee might be the better bet, at least in terms of jury clout.  

Luckily for Jake, Katurah is there to talk him out of it.  She makes a good argument for targeting Dee, and Jake agrees to switch his vote.  After telling Katurah about his idol, the pair agree to draw votes onto Jake, then have their two be a majority with Jake’s negated votes.  

Unluckily for the pair, Austin immediately spills to Dee about Jake’s idol.  Again, great move, dude!  About the only bright spot is that Julie doesn’t believe that Jake’s idol is real, and so is going to stick voting him.  Dee plans to stick on Katurah, the backup plan, leaving Austin in the air.  With votes split this way, even if Austin votes with one of Dee or Julie, you can still get a majority with the idol played correctly.  As long as nothing else goes wrong for Jake.  

But no!  Even Jake’s professed allies cannot be counted upon!  Worried about Jake being flaky (which Jake has many faults in this game, but flakiness is not among them, from what we’ve seen), Katurah makes him swear on his grandmother to vote for Dee.  Because nothing bad has ever happened on “Survivor” when people swear on their grandmother.  

If I haven’t made it clear already, voting out Dee is the correct move for basically everybody.  Gets rid of a jury threat, and while Julie and Austin would lose a close ally, numbers are small enough now that it doesn’t really matter.  Do I think it will happen?  Not with a vote this fractured, but we’ll see.  

Tribal Council is sadly a boring affair pre-vote.  Standard double talk, and not even an honorable mention for fun moment.  That is, until we vote.  The vote is genuinely up in the air, plus there is Jake’s idol to consider.  Say what you will about Jake, but the dude is a showman through and through.  He makes a big deal about his idol play, busting out a Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”) impression along the way.  Gotta say, it was a spot-on impression.  Confusingly, he plays it for Katurah.  At this point in the game, I’d have played it for myself, but I guess Jake’s reading the room that votes are going for Katurah?  

If so, he’s reading them badly.  Katurah does get one vote from Dee, eliciting a fun happy reaction from Jake.  Then Jake gets a vote, eliciting a pissed reaction from Jake.  The next two votes, going for Dee and Julie, just elicit confusion, with the final vote going for Julie.  I am sorry to see her go.  She was surprisingly strategic, and brought a certain charm to the proceedings as a whole.  You will be missed, Julie.  

Because having Emily be confrontational right out the gate wasn’t enough fights for the season, we have to squeeze one more in right before the Final Immunity Challenge.  Really, Jake and Katurah need to unite to hope to take out Dee or Austin.  Granted, that just amounts to “Win Final Immunity” at this point, but still, unity would be nice.  Instead, the two start throwing the blame around for why that vote didn’t go the way they wanted.  Jake is upset at swearing on his grandmother and Katurah backing out of it anyway, while Katurah is upset at Jake playing his idol incorrectly, leading to her not voting out the person she wanted gone anyway.  Frankly, both of them come off looking bad here.  Jake, you’re a superfan, you should know what swearing on a loved one means in this game (read, not much).  Yeah Katurah kind of burned you, but this reaction seems over-the-top, and disproportionate to the situation.  Don’t think you’re getting off though, Katurah.  Yes, Jake could have communicated more with you, but that’s a two-way street, so you’re not blameless.  Moreover, you’re in control of your own vote, and if you thought you were going regardless, why not throw a vote on Dee on the way out, just to say you tried.  It’s true you didn’t MAKE Jake do anything (applied a lot of pressure, certainly, but never forced), but by the same token, Jake did not make you do anything either.  Don’t throw your bad moves onto him.  He has enough of his own.  

Really, all this scene does is show the audience more clearly why an anti-Reba movement never really fostered at Belo.  Too much infighting and mistrust for them to work together.  

Our final immunity challenge, like the first immunity challenge, is nothing to write home about.  Stack seventeen bowls, which can be knocked over by wobbling a frame you step through.  Pretty standard challenge at this point, but at least it isn’t “Simmotion” again, so I’ll take it.  

The only major thing of note in this challenge relates, unsurprisingly, to Jake.  He and Dee are the two frontrunners in the challenge, with Austin and Katurah knocking their stack over often.  Jake, however, slips up, leading to the need to recollect his pots.  So many pots that it takes multiple trips.  Jake then gets the idea to walk atop the frame, rather than through it, for a faster time when jostling doesn’t matter.  

What DOES matter is structural integrity, since Probst warns Jake that if he breaks the challenge, he’s out.  Sure enough, a few moments later, the structure snaps, all but assuring Dee’s victory.  Jake’s salty in the moment, but that warning seemed pretty clear, and it looked like Jake had the chance to correct what he was doing.  Would have been best if this had been said before the challenge, but even so, this loss is squarely on Jake.  Probst doesn’t call this out as a “Survivor” first… and rightly so.  Yeah, this is the most blatant it’s been, but there’s been at least one time someone “broke” a challenge, leading to their disqualification.  The final 8 of “Survivor Africa” had an immunity challenge where you had to build a fire to burn a rope.  If you hit the rope with your supplies, you were disqualified.  Brandon did so, and got disqualified.  Good on Probst for remembering at least some of the show’s history, even if he didn’t talk about about.  

Dee wins, in case it wasn’t clear.  Wonder how the long toe helped in this one?  In any case, Dee and her toe must now decide who goes into fire.  There’s not much mystery, since she quickly settles on taking Austin to the end based on their relationship.  Annoyingly, the meta of fire-making being part of one’s “resume” comes up, with both Jake and Austin asking to go into fire.  Katurah’s the only one who resists, perhaps explaining why I like her in spite of some poor strategic moves on her part.  It’s to no avail, however, as Dee is worried about Katurah being a social threat on the jury, the one type of threat I would say Katurah is.  Thus, she wants her out, and believes Jake best-equipped to do it.  

But didn’t Jake almost faint into the fire early on this season?  Not sure he’s the best in fire.  Neither is Austin, who pitches to be put in as being better equipped to take out Katurah. This idea seems to have a bit of merit, as when Austin checks on Jake, the man has no fire, and seems checked out of continuing to try.  A decent-enough misdirect, but Dee’s too smart for that.  With how they’ve been able to get basically nothing going, this would not be enough to put either Katurah or Jake over the top for some jury votes.  Austin is more well-liked and had more agency, so it MIGHT be bad to have him do fire.  

Sure enough, that’s what happens.  Yeah, there’s discussion at Tribal Council, but once again, nothing of merit.  Katurah and Jake go into fire, and while not a blowout victory, Katurah’s repeated smothering of her fire means Jake eventually wins.  Once again, the methodical approach takes off.  Jake finally got his “W”, and he and Probst take a moment to bask in it.  Jake talks about how far he’s come since he was an underconfident 15-year-old.  We then go to Katurah, leading to this conversation:

PROBST: Katurah, what does this game mean to you?

KATURAH: Well Jeff, to me it means I never told anyone I was a lawyer.  

I’m kidding, but only slightly.  It DOES turn into Katurah using this as the lawyer reveal, we get our shocked reactions, and we move on.  

Continuing on the efficiency kick this episode has been doing, we cut between our final three breakfast and “jury speaks” videos.  Our contestants themselves don’t lay out the arguments, instead talking about their relationship with each juror.  Instead, the jurors make the arguments.  Jake overcame the greatest odds to be there, as the only non-Reba to make finals.  Dee was well-liked, and able to maneuver behind the scenes, and Austin was generally the most overtly social of the three.  Which will win out will likely come down to their arguments.  That said, Jake still seems on the outs.  I have to make note that he said “I took myself here.”  Sure, Jake.  Sure you did.

Weirdly, we don’t get opening statements this time.  Perhaps they were filmed but not shown?  Doesn’t really matter this time, as we get some good arguments from all parties this time around, and I’d dare to say the “New Jury Format” is the best it’s ever been!  Sure, it’s still more of a group discussion, and no one’s called up to speak, but every juror asks basically one question, and Probst doesn’t really contribute to the proceedings.  It’s the original jury format without all the showmanship, and a bit less equal speaking time (Emily speaks a bit more than once, and Bruce says basically nothing).  If this is the compromise needed, I’ll gladly take it!

Unfortunately, for all I like this new, balanced format, none of the questions really stand out.  Like I say, it all comes down to the arguments.  Jake gets built up by the jury initially, and really pushes the narrative of him lasting this long.  It’s his best card, and he does a good job arguing it.  

Sadly for him, it’s clear the jury largely see Dee and Austin as the power-players of the season.  Weirdly, the two remain cordial for a good chunk of the Tribal.  Dee gives Austin co-credit on most moves, and Austin argues for Dee better than Dee herself, being the first one to bring up her not bringing him in on the Drew vote.  Austin’s advantages get praised, but so do Dee’s social skills.  When they DO start going after each other, however, it’s tit for tat.  Austin puts a feather in his cap about strengthening the Reba alliance with Emily, Dee brings up bringing in Katurah.  Dee talks about orchestrating Kendra’s ouster, Austin brings up orchestrating Kellie’s ouster.  Back and forth the two go, though Dee does seem to claim a slight edge by noting that Austin told her about the Julie plan the night Emily went home, while she did not do the same for Austin on the Drew boot.  Seems like a close debate between the two, but given this better line of argument coming out at the end, I’d give the edge to Dee.  

The votes reflect this.  Kaleb gives Jake some false hope by calling out “J!” In the voting booth, a la Jonathan Penner’s “DENISE!” On “Survivor Philippines”, but ends up being a Dee vote.  A decently fun call back for the audience, but I’ve gotta imagine a bit hurtful to Jake in the moment.  Credit to this season: It’s not a 7-1 slam-dunk this time.  Indeed, it almost looks like a tie, but it ends up being 5-3 in favor of Dee.  Probably the right call.  Both had their strategic gems, but with how lovesick Austin became toward the end, Dee was clearly the superior choice.  The votes for Austin come from Drew (presumably for being his close ally), Kendra (for being more social/simpatico with Austin), and Bruce (there is no fathoming how Bruce’s mind works, particularly when we don’t hear from him on the jury basically at all).  A solid outcome on what ends up being a great season.  But I’m getting ahead of myself.  We still have a couple of things to cover before my summation.  

Our reunion show, despite my preference for the old format, is decently solid.  We hit on most of the topics one would hope to hear about.  Dee and Austin’s relationship.  Emily’s growth.  Kaleb’s shot in the dark play.  All that sort of thing.  One interesting bit is Probst bringing up the fact that Austin was an alternate this season, getting called in last-minute.  A bit of trivia common-knowledge amongst the superfans, but probably not as well-known to the casual audience.  Moreover, Probst talks about some other contestants who were also alternates, bringing up Tina Wesson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”) and Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  He notes that there seems to be something successful about being an alternate.  He of course fails to mention that Amy O’Hara (“Survivor Guatemala”) and Spencer Duhm (“Survivor Tocantins”) were ALSO alternates, and had much less success, but I suppose that doesn’t fit his narrative, and Probst wants to forget that Guatemala exists.  Still, fun trivia for the uninformed.  

Also, next season looks ok.  Seeing the audition video clips is fun, but otherwise nothing to write home about.  I’m not concerned about “Survivor 46”, but I’m not jumping out of my seat to get to it either.  

Really, there’s only two major omissions in terms of what we discuss.  One would be asking about why Little Lulu was such a disaster of a tribe, presumably omitted for the lack of Lulu left, apart from Emily and Kaleb, and another knock against the new reunion format.  The other, which I’m surprised they didn’t talk about, or at least didn’t show, was how Jake would have voted if it HAD been a tie.  He himself seemed a bit unsure, but if I were to speculate, I’d say he’d go Austin.  He seemed closer to working with him than he did with Dee at times.  Still, who knows?

We end off this episode, much like it began, with a whimper.  I’ll save my season thoughts overall for after we check back on my pre-season cast assessment.  As for this episode, it was just ok.  I was never bored or angry at it, but I was never particularly thrilled either.  It came in, did its job adequately and efficiently, and then left.  Not bad for your standard episode, but kind of ho-hum for your big finale.  As such, let us more to the more exciting cast assessment comparison!

Austin: Wrong initially, though I became more right as the season progressed.  He WAS good at using his appearance and demeanor to hide how devious he could be, until his lovesickness got the better of him, and he became the mask, as it were.  

Brandon: My wish came true, even if my prediction didn’t.  In my defense, I didn’t think Brandon would be THAT bad at challenges, and had I known, I’d have given him much worse odds.  Still, unequivocally wrong here.  

Emily: Wrong, and thankfully so.  Her personal growth was a highlight of the season.  

Brando: The closest yet to being right.  His tribe was not the disaster I predicted (though once they started going to Tribal, they kind of ended up that way anyway), but he placed about exactly where I thought he would.  

Hannah: Mostly right, though I didn’t call the quit.  Though really, who could?

Bruce: I nailed his personality, and the reasons he would have an issue with the other players, but partly due to avoiding Tribal Council so long, he lasted much longer than I expected.  

J. Maya: She left for basically the reasons I expected, but earlier than I anticipated.  Partially right on this one.  

Drew: Sort of the opposite sibling to J. Maya.  I again nailed the personality, but Drew lasted longer than I anticipated in spite of that.  

Julie: Flat out wrong.  She had much more game, and was much more tempered in her confessionals, than I had anticipated.  

Jake: Well, I did call him a dark horse to win, and he DID make it to the end.  He had no shot at said end, but even so, I’ll give myself this one.  

Katurah: Wrong, though it would be hard to anticipate the single-minded anti-Bruce focus that arguably tanked her game.  

Kaleb: Dead right, for once this season.  

Kellie: Completely wrong.  Much more of a presence than I expected, and much longer-lasting.  

Sifu: He couldn’t adjust his personality to the others, and was out earlier than I thought as a result.  Another wrong assessment for me.  

Kendra: Yet another for the “right on personality, wrong on time in the game” pile.  

Sean: He may not be the WORST winner pick of “Idol Speculation”, but he’s definitely a top contender.  Again, if I’d known he’d be THAT bad in challenges, I’d probably have changed my rankings.  And again, hard to anticipate a quit.  

Sabiyah: Another of my few right calls this time around.  

Dee: Wrong.  Girl had the skills to back up her talk that I simply did not call.  

And there you have it.  Ranking this season on the heels of “Survivor 44” is a bit interesting, since I would say they have the same flaw.  Namely, one power alliance goes through to nearly the end basically unopposed.  Yet, I found it frustrating then, but don’t mind it here.  A lot of that, I think, boils down to the 90-minute format.  This allowed time for building more decoy winners, and giving us a larger sense of who the cast was and why they did what they did, than 44 could have allowed.  Yes, the last few episodes were a bit of a slog, and knowing the outcome does drag the season down, but everything up through the final seven boot was overall so great that I’d still call this a top-tier season!  That said, it’s the lower end of top-tier due to the Reba 4 never being stopped.  They had more plausible opportunity to be stopped, and their gameplay more subtle, which I think makes the outcome a bit easier to swallow than on 44.  

If you’re curious as to where exactly I’d rank this, I’d put it around the same level as “Survivor 42”, the other “New Era” season I’d consider top-tier.  Frankly I could see arguments for putting one over the other for both sides, and I think it comes down to whether you prefer a season with more developed players all around, but a more predictable outcome, or a more mysterious outcome at the cost of some characters being forgettable.  As someone who puts a lot of emphasis on rewatch value, I’d favor the latter, giving “Survivor 42” the edge, but I would not argue with anyone who prefers the reverse.  

In any case, feel free to let me know what you thought of this season below, as we await “Survivor 46”.  I’ll be taking my break for now, but look for me when the new cast is announced, and the discussion resumes!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 7: This Is Not Even My Final Form!

Hopefully my title for this blog is actually an indicator of things to come, because if this episode is indicative of this season’s final form, MAN it just falls flat!  Sorry to spoil my overall thoughts on the episode early, but despite there being decent misdirection in the moment, it pretty much all just fell flat in the end.  Not a terrible episode, but really giving us nothing of value, and on a season that’s overall had pretty good quality so far, that’s a real shame.  

Speaking of quality episodes, we have to deal with the fallout from last time.  And by “fallout”, I mean Kaleb celebrating, though in fairness, luck of that ridiculous a caliber definitely deserves some celebrating.  Of course, Kaleb recognizes he’s still on the outs, but hopes he can make some inroads moving forward.  

The path of least resistance seems to be through Bruce, who, not content with being part of a unified vote which only backfired due to the Shot in the Dark, confronts Katurah about whether she decided to vote for Kaleb before Tribal Council, or during, with his big speech.  Now, to be as fair as possible to Bruce, his logic for this move has a decent foundation.  He recognizes that Katurah still has a vendetta against him, and so, in his words, wants to sow some paranoia against her with Reba, hoping to utilize them down the line.  Not a terrible plan.  The flaw in it is that such a plan, in order to work, requires SUBTLE execution.  Not “Talk Loudly to Katurah in Front of Basically Everyone”.  You want to bring it up in casual conversation, almost in passing, and just let it grow in the minds of others.  You see, by calling it out so publicly, you make it very obvious what you’re doing.  Still, only Katurah seems openly pissed right now, and she was already on the warpath against you anyway, so not much harm done.  Hopefully this doesn’t burn other bridges as well.  

After the intro, we get our bridge-burning clearance sale!  Oh sure, there’s a bit of talk about how most people still want Kaleb out, with even Emily saying she probably has to sacrifice him to keep her threat level down.  Jake’s about the only one who wants Kaleb around, and when has Jake been shown to have any influence in this game so far?  As he himself will later say, he’s been really passive throughout most of it.  

But back to the “Bruce-Bashing Hour”, because that’s really all this first segment is!  Katurah is mad at Bruce.  Kellie thinks he’s too stubborn.  Even Kendra has put aside her other vendettas to say that Bruce is becoming a liability at this point.  Yeah, it gets a little more specific than that, but overall, it really is just “Everybody Hates Bruce” for the first 15 minutes of the show.  It does give Kaleb another “In”, since Katurah brings him in on the Bruce-Bashing.  Kaleb himself, despite how nice he is, even gets in on it.  When he tries to make amends with Bruce, at Jake’s behest, the conversation does not go well.  Bruce does not rebuild trust easily, and talks in such a way that Kaleb feels incredibly condescended to.  It gets to the point that he even paraphrases Big Tom talking about Sue Hawk on “Survivor All-Stars”, and says it’s a mystery how he made it this far in life without Bruce telling him what to do.  A funny moment, and a good call-back to one of the less-cringey moments of that season.  

Pretty much our only pre-challenge reprieve comes from Austin.  Evidently the excitement of the successful Shot in the Dark drove the vote count from everyone’s minds, and to be fair, that is a pretty crazy event, so I can see that happening.  Austin, however, notes that his idol has now achieved its Final Form, something he’s not sure even Drew properly noticed.  As such, he puts his sandwich vendetta on the back burner for now, so it looks like Kellie made it out ok in this deal.  

I’d describe the challenge to you, but I don’t really need to.  As the episode itself says, “An oldie, but a goodie!”  Yes, it’s the “Cling to the tall pole” challenge first seen on “Survivor Vanuatu”.  It got a bit overused as the years went by, but we’ve had a nice long break from it, so I’m happy it makes a return.  Simple in concept, difficult in execution, and easy to see who’s doing well.  Love it overall.  

With the challenge itself meriting little description, our players, like myself, want to see the new individual immunity idol for the season.  Frankly, it looks like the ones from “Survivor The Amazon” and “Survivor One World” had a baby.  Basically a necklace of colorful feathers, but with a few ornamental skulls on it.  Fitting for the bird theme of the season, and not the worst necklace the show has ever given us, but certainly not the best.  Kind of like the one on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, it just feels too small.  

Probst attempts to correct for this by hauling out TWO of the necklaces!  Yes, if the poles being divided into six red and six blue was not a giveaway, this is the split Tribal Council of the season.  You know, where the merge tribe (incidentally revealed to be named Dakuwaqa.  No idea what that means, but nice to see a longer name in this day and age) gets arbitrarily split up?  Still not a fan of it, but if it MUST happen, better it happen here, so we can get a longer string of “normal” merge votes, IMO.  Plus get us down to more manageable numbers really quickly.  

Stakes are high in this one.  Not only does the team that wins the challenge outright get a taco bar at “The Sanctuary” (I refuse to dignify Probst’s stupid slogan by retyping it here), but they also go to Tribal Council second.  For once, significant NOT in that it gives them information on who went out, thus influencing the vote like Ryan’s boot on “Survivor 43”, but in that it guarantees those on the winning team a jury spot.  Yes, with no medevacs beforehand, we must bid farewell to one of these two pre-jury.  Kind of sucks that a bad rock draw can do that, but luck’s always been something of a factor on “Survivor” and everyone knows about this before the challenge, so I don’t have a huge issue with it.  

Those who draw the blue rocks should have an issue, though, because they got SCREWED!  Unlike the last team challenge, this random division is not even at all.  And not just because there’s no puzzle.  The challenge beasts on blue team, those being Sifu and Bruce, are all big guys.  Not the body type you want in this sort of challenge.  Rounding out the blue team are Emily, Drew, Kellie, and Kendra.  Thus, red team is Austin, Julie, Dee, Kaleb, Jake, and Katurah.  The challenge beasts here (Austin and Kaleb) are much skinnier guys while still having the strength to hold on, and the likes of Dee and Katurah have been no slouches in the challenge department either.  

Sure enough, Dee’s toes bring red victory.  Most of blue drops out early, and I take particular hilarity of Probst saying “Everyone’s in position” when Emily is already halfway down the pole.  She’s consequently first out, and most of blue quickly drops behind her, Kellie winning immunity on their side.  Red puts up more of a fight, though I will say Austin dropped a lot earlier than I was expecting.  I would have bet this challenge was right up his alley.  Dee ultimately is victorious, though, and while I was joking about it before the challenge began, Dee DOES attribute her win to said toes.  Look at that Chekov’s Gun getting fired!

Our ecstasy at The Sanctuary doesn’t last long, as Julie quickly tells us she’s concerned.  She really wants everyone to go Kaleb, and is concerned it will be her if not.  Sure enough, Jake tells us that Kaleb is a number for him, and so he doesn’t want him gone just yet.  Time will tell if he has the resources to make that happen, though.  

Over at the old Little Lulu camp (which Emily of course had to quip about upon Probst sending them back there), the mood is, unsurprisingly, much more somber.  Particularly down is Drew, who notes that with three old Belo on the tribe, there is technically a plurality against him.  Sure, given that Bruce is one of those three, there’s naturally a lot of talk about getting him out, but Drew wisely doesn’t fully trust that.  Of course, there’s always his “Safety Without Power” advantage… That he left back at the merge camp.  Yep, Drew pulled a Matt Blankenship (“Survivor 44”).  I’d give him a hard time for this, but in fairness, I’m pretty sure this season started filming before that episode aired, so I can’t fault him too much.  

Point is that Drew admits a willingness to vote out Sifu, something that Kellie and Kendra, our king-makers for this Tribal Council, note, especially since Sifu is still rumored to have an idol.  They’re still on the side of wanting Bruce to go, but he does have an idol, and so could target one of them if not kept completely comfortable.  Bruce even gives a patented James Clement (“Survivor China”) “I’ll have the idol with me, and if I feel the need, I’ll play it.” Confessional.  Will this fear be enough to make them play it safe?  Only time will tell.  

Taco Wednesday (man that just doesn’t feel right) over with, our winners get down to deciding who will go.  Our Reba three quickly settle on Kaleb for being too big of a threat, and call Jake over to cement him as the fourth.  Jake, however, is tired of being passive in this game, and decides that Kaleb is a number and a shield that he needs.  Fair enough logic, but Jake, how’re you going to get the numbers for that?

Well, Jake’s solution is not to get the numbers insomuch as to force a tie vote.  If he, Kaleb, and Katurah all unite, he thinks he can force Austin to flip, saying that Austin “plays scared”.  I think that speaks to how well Austin’s doing at controlling perceptions of himself.  From our perspective, seeing the confessionals?  Yeah, no way Austin’s doing that.  But from the outside looking in?  With how “Go with the flow” he presents himself as, I can see why Jake buys this as a possibility.  

Of course, such a plan requires Katurah’s cooperation, and it’s going to need a great sales pitch to get her on board.  After all, the plan hinges on Austin flipping, and if he does not, there’s a 2/3 shot someone in your alliance would go home.  This is demonstrated by the nifty editing technique of the “Flash Forward”, not yet seen on this show.  We cut ahead to Tribal Council to see where everyone’s sitting, and so they can be highlighted as they’re brought up.  Dee would naturally be immune since she has the necklace.  Kaleb would be immune since he got votes.  In order to try and get Austin to panic, Julie would also receive votes, and therefore be immune.  Thus, Katurah, Jake, and Austin would all draw rocks if everyone holds firm.  Decently complex to wrap one’s head around, so kudos on the creative visual aid, show.  

Kaleb, the natural salesman, is initially selected to give the pitch.  And here’s where the flaw comes in.  You see Jake, for some reason, feels they need to come clean about everything, including the idol hunt that led to Bruce’s idol, and how she was left out.  One would imagine her natural reaction to such a revelation is “How can I trust these guys again?”, so there must be some good justification.  Jake’s fear is that Austin, who apparently knows about Bruce’s idol despite that never being established, will come clean to Katurah instead.  If true, I can at least see some logic to the idea, but again, we’ve never seen that Austin knows about it, so not sure the benefit.  Still, Kaleb is a good salesman, and even after coming clean, Katurah still seems very much on board.  

Leave it Jake to come in and screw it up.  He also comes clean to Katurah, this time making sure to emphasize how his ring story was pure baloney.  This leads Katurah to that logical reaction I mentioned earlier, and now she’s seriously considering just cutting Kaleb.  Frankly, this is the correct move.  Aside from this being the plan with the fewest unknown factors, and a minimal risk of Katurah herself being a casualty, these guys have shown they don’t really have the loyalty to you that you have to them.  As such, why stick your neck out for them again?  I’d say better to have Jake go in this scenario, since she seems to hold him more responsible than Kaleb, but with Reba effectively in control of this team, that’s a non-starter.  Yes, Kaleb is a shield, but at some point you need to discard that shield.  Given that Kaleb is drawing all the focus, coupled with his lack of a Shot in the Dark now, better to get rid of him sooner rather than later.  Keep him around, and the numbers around him, aka the people you can try and get on board for yourself, dwindle, so that by the time you do discard him, you’ve got no room to maneuver for yourself.  Better to just cut him now, work out the mess later.  

Back at the old Little Lulu camp, Sifu is feeling on edge.  He has a pretty decent emotional moment about wanting desperately to at least make the jury, and he and Emily, the people supposedly most on the outs, commiserate over it.  Ironically, Emily, the loner of this group IS SOMEHOW NOT EVEN BROUGHT UP AS A POSSIBILITY!  Look, as an Emily fan, I’m HAPPY this is the case, but man, it does not make sense from an outside perspective.  Just goes to show how much she’s grown in the game.  

So the choice is between Sifu and Bruce, and frankly, Bruce is the better choice for all involved.  He’s stubborn to the point that he can’t be used as a number, which hurts everyone.  For Kellie and Kendra in particular, you want him gone due to the fact that this is the last pre-jury vote.  If you’re not planning to take Bruce to the end (and while he’s not the most well-liked player by anyone left, I doubt he’s enough of a jury sink that people want him in their end game) you will, by definition, have to blindside him.  Call me crazy, but my read on Bruce is that he’s not the kind of guy who isn’t going to hold a grudge about that.  Thus, better to have him gone before the jury, so as not to poison it against you.  

Really, the only mark against voting off Bruce is the threat of an idol play from him leading to your own exit, but as long as you do a good job convincing him it’s Sifu, you should be fine.  Still, it’s a potent enough threat that Kellie starts getting cold feet, and asks Kendra to try and make nice with Bruce.  She does her best, and while Bruce doesn’t entirely buy it, things seem a bit easier between them.  And yeah, we can already see where this is going.  Sifu will be gone.  Bruce was far too front loaded with content to be the boot tonight.  It would be too obvious.  Conversely, Sifu’s got a decent amount of content this episode, but not so much that it gives away the game.  In doing so, however, the game is given away in itself.  

Tribal Council doesn’t help matters either.  It’s all your normal double-talk until Sifu throws the tribe dynamics out into the open.  Not the move of a confident player, but a desperate one who’s definitely on the chopping block.  Thus, Sifu goes, just barely missing the jury.  Much as I enjoyed him on the show, I’m not sorry to see him go.  He was just the right amount of character to be fun, but keep him around much longer, and he wouldn’t be entertaining more.  Still, his final words are really heartfelt, and made me tear up a little bit, not going to lie.  

Honestly, the biggest loss here is that we don’t get to see J. Maya and Sifu reunite.  Imagine the fireworks.  

Tribal Council 2 would have had a bit better misdirection, were it not for coming second.  Granted, this is something the show can’t help, but the fact is that based on the time left, we KNOW that a rock draw is not in the offing.  Couple that with all the talk centering around last episode’s Tribal Council, and yep, Katurah helped vote out Kaleb.  Again, nice guy, but not that sorry to see him go.  Not because I disliked him, or because he wasn’t a dynamic character, far from it!  But as he drew the focus of the target, so too did he (along with Bruce) draw the focus of the story.  With Kaleb now out of the way, we can focus on other plot lines than just him.  And hey, dude gets to be on the jury, which he very much deserves, so that’s some consolation, at least.  

Not content with his move backfiring in his ally getting voted out, Jake has to compound it by openly admitting to Julie, even before Kaleb leaves, that he was the vote against her.  Not that I think he could have hidden it, but he’s not exactly leaving his options open for denial here either.  See Jake, this is what happens when you try.  At least you gave us some entertainment by dialing the Boston up to 11 this episode.  I heard at least one “wicked” out of you.  

Good thing we had that entertainment, because this episode gave us very little.  There was some ok misdirection here and there, but for the most part, it was obvious what was going on, and the dynamics were very straightforward.  Not terrible stuff, but not enough to adequately fill the hour and a half, the first time I’ve felt like the longer episodes work against the show.  Most of this season, for good or for ill, left me feeling something.  This left me empty, and while better than the rage some previous seasons have induced in me, this is still a damning inditement of the episode’s quality.  

It says something when I feel like I have more to talk about in relation to the upcoming episode than I do this one.  Time for another “Idol Speculation Prediction”!  Well, ok, less “prediction” more “observation”, but you get the idea.  Low key, the biggest jury threat is now Emily.  Think about it: Her close ally, who she still seemed to be on good terms with even after last episode, is now the jury foreman.  The guy who can influence every juror moving forward.  The guy who has seen her development, and thus who can best argue her game (outside of herself), is most likely going to be advocating for her, since she was uninvolved in his vote-out.  Granted, the same could be said for Jake, but Jake’s a more visible player right now.  Emily is alone, but is close enough to Drew that he wanted to keep her over the likes of Sifu.  Ok, that’s not saying much, but it’s something.  Plus, pretty much everyone with beef with her is out, save possibly Bruce.  No one seems to notice her, but if she slips to the end, she wouldn’t surprise me in winning the votes.  And who would have guessed after episode one that not only would Emily be the last Lulu standing, but also in a decent position to win should she make it to the end?

Also, THE AUCTION IS COMING BACK!  YAY!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs. 

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 6: One Ring to Rule them All

Three for the Tika Tribe and their birdcage.

Five beads for Karla, and her face of stone.  

Seven for Hantz, who makes all others rage.

One for Jake, on his Boston Throne

In the Land of Fiji, where “Survivor” lies.  

Thank you for letting me have my “nerd out” moment at the start of this blog.  Getting into the episode proper, we naturally start off at Belo, dealing with the fallout from Brando’s exit.  Emily informs us that due to the old Reba being more straightforward with her, she went with them.  Makes sense.  Also, while it wasn’t explicitly brought up, I bet Kendra bringing up the aliens thing again was a factor.  Probably not a deal-breaker on its own, but point in favor of siding with Reba.  

For her part, Kendra takes the blindside fairly well.  She takes in the excuse of avoiding a shot in the dark from Brando, and insists she still wants to work with everyone there.  She even gets the tone of it just right.  Only her eyes give her away.  While her words and tone say “I want to work with you.”, her eyes say “Rot in hell.”  Her ire is understandably predominantly directed at Emily, the one who actually betrayed her.  Kendra is out for revenge, but time will tell when that dish comes up.  

Idols are the order of the day at Lulu.  Now that Kaleb feels like he’s in a decent position, he wants to either have an idol, or know where it is.  To this end, he gets the tribe on a major idol hunt, reasoning that everyone being together will at least give him information.  Not a bad plan, it must be said.  Really, the only risk is that someone subtly finds an idol without your seeing.  Luckily for Kaleb, the person who finds it is Bruce, who is not subtle about basically anything.  Credit to Bruce here: While the idol was in a significant-=looking tree, it was near the roots rather than the branches, and well-camouflaged, so good on him for sussing it out.  

Well, I SAY Bruce found an idol.  In actually he found a Beware Advantage that takes his vote away until he FINDS said idol.  Naturally, with how this season has been playing out, this will be a long scavenger hunt for Bruce, full of many twists and turns… Or it’s just buried in the middle of the shelter.  That works too, I guess.  

Comparative lack of difficulty aside, Bruce’s hunt is not without obstacles.  Namely, Katurah.  While most everyone was there to see Bruce find his idol, she was not, and given how publicly anti-Bruce she’s been, he understandably wants to return the favor.  Unfortunately for him, Katurah quickly returns, so Jake makes a big show of losing his ring, and needing people to help look for it.  I bring the latter point up only because that’s what gives me the excuse to make the “Lord of the Rings” joke earlier.  

But even with Katurah out of the way, there’s another wrinkle for Bruce: A boat telling them they have 10 minutes to get their stuff together for a merge.  Or, I guess, “mergatory” in the new parlance.  Look, I’m just gonna keep calling it the “merge”, ok?  Easier to type, and with everyone left voting in one group, it effectively is, buffs or no buffs.  So, now Bruce has a deadline of 10 minutes.  Luckily for him, the idol is not buried particularly deep, and so he is successful.  Good for him, though I feel his worry may be overblown.  Usually if there’s a “no vote until you find the idol” clause, it expires at the merge, so maybe if Bruce had read things more closely, he might have been fine.  Yes, missing out on an idol would suck, but at least he’d have his vote back.  We also see nothing about Bruce needing to sacrifice his vote to extend his idol’s lifespan, and we don’t see him give up his vote this episode.  Idols found later don’t have the same sacrifices, I guess, but that just seems imbalanced overall.  

Everyone comes together on the old Reba beach, meaning, as far as we know, the idol that was presumably on Belo was never found, unless they’re saving a flashback for REALLY late in the season.  Definitely unusual if so.  

More than idols, social awkwardness is the elephant in the room which must be addressed.  Specifically between Emily and Bruce, due to the whole “Former calling the latter out on the mat at the marooning” thing.  Emily apologizes, and Bruce insists that it’s water under the bridge, at least to each other’s faces.  Privately, Bruce admits that he still wants Emily out, while Emily notes that while the two will be polite, they probably can’t trust each other or work together.  Good for camp civility, but doesn’t change much about each other’s strategic prospects.  

Strategy gets largely put on hold, however, as everyone sizes each other up, and sets about increasing the size of the shelter.  A task ultimately made more difficult by a torrential rainstorm, which pretty much everyone kvetches about.  Everyone except Sifu, who says this is what he’s here for.  Now, I’m all for trying to keep an upbeat attitude in difficult circumstances, but Sifu, you can afford to read the room and tone it down a bit.  Shows what I know, however, as it evidently works.  Everyone has an impromptu jam session, with the spotlight being stolen by a dancing stickbug.  This, however, annoys Drew, who wants the strategy to get moving.  Dude, even as someone who’s a big strategy nut, patience.  It’s a big group; it’ll happen eventually.  

After our commercial, the first bit of strategy comes from Kaleb and Emily.  Unsurprisingly, the pair still want to work together.  Understandable, given that they’ve been tested the most, and each has saved the other.  Understandable they’d have an investment they wouldn’t want to throw away very quickly.  Kaleb talks about how much Emily’s grown in the game, which makes me very concerned for her longevity tonight, so the quicker we move on to the next topic, the better.  Emily and Kaleb compare notes, noting that they each have connections with one of the other two tribes (Kaleb with Belo, Emily with Reba).  For now, Reba seems like the better option, as they seem to want to get rid of J. Maya.  

Don’t believe me?  Don’t worry, Reba will tell you themselves!  Sifu talks about it on the belief that J. Maya voted for him.  Dee and Drew talk about it for her being on the outs.  Austin talks about it because he’s still pissed about the sandwich.  Dude, get over it!  Don’t get me wrong, Austin has incentive to get rid of J. Maya to power up the amulet alone, not to mention how it implies she doesn’t respect his wishes in the game.  But no, Austin simply brings up nothing but the sandwich.  IT’S A SANDWICH!  However bad you wanted it, however badly you’re starving, it is not worth holding this much of a grudge over!  

With Emily pretty firmly in with Reba, it’s Kaleb who goes to ask them what they want to do.  All old Reba emphatically tell him it’s J. Maya, indicating that it’s legit, and most likely spelling doom for her.  With merges as large as these, the easy consensus boot is usually the one to go.  Plus, there’s upsides for pretty much everyone to getting rid of J. Maya.  For old Belo, it weakens the old Reba, who are their overall greatest threat at this point.  For Kaleb and Emily, it saves them from being the easy consensus boot, and since neither of them have played with her at this point, they have no real reason to keep her.  Even those members of Reba who don’t have at least a perceived reason to distrust J. Maya (Sifu and Austin) have an upside to getting rid of her.  By showing a willingness to sacrifice one of their own, while keeping their core four intact, they make themselves less threatening, thus helping negate the possibility that Emily and Kaleb join up with old Belo in order to prevent them getting too powerful.  Since J. Maya was never really in their core group anyway, they lose very little, and potentially gain much.  

Still, an alternative target is most likely needed, and Bruce quickly comes up with one.  Bruce may not be the most subtle player I’ve ever seen, but let it not be said that he’s imperceptive.  When no one is talking to him, but he sees everyone else talking, this leads him to the conclusion that he’s on the outs, not helped by him having difficulty keeping his leadership tendencies under control.  This leads to an exchange with Kendra where he mispronounces the word “pariah”, and Kendra gets confused.  At first I thought it was just due to the mispronunciation, but even when Bruce corrects himself, Kendra STILL doesn’t know the word.  Look, I get that it’s not the most common word, but the fact that Kendra is 29 and has yet to encounter that word makes me die a little inside.  Regardless, both Bruce and Kendra note that Kaleb is playing very well socially, and conspire to perhaps make him the target.  Kendra in particular is gung-ho about this.  Gone is the talk of getting Emily out.  Perhaps that’s just on the back-burner, or getting out Kaleb is revenge by proxy.  If the latter, however, it shows that Kaleb makes a good shield for Emily, which is only a plus for her.  

Remember me just saying Bruce was a perceptive player?  Yeah, “perceptive” in this case does not equate to “good”.  Rather than just conspire behind his back, Bruce puts Kaleb on notice that he doesn’t think that he’s with Belo, and that he notices Kaleb talking to everyone.  Kaleb describes it as an encounter with an angry cop, which I have to say, is a bit hyperbolic.  Unsubtle as it may be, Bruce’s tone was, at worst, “stern” from what we were shown.  Yes, Kaleb should be wary of Bruce, as we see when he puts some feelers out regarding targeting Bruce, but that description was maybe a bit much.  Though maybe Canadian cops are politer than American cops.  

CHALLENGE TIME!  I’m surprised I’m using the all-caps for this one, since it looked pretty dull on the fly-over, but the specifics grew on me.  Divided into two teams of six, red and blue, players make their way through a mud crawl, then push a heavy cart collecting sandbags along the way.  They then use said sandbags to build a way up to a rope net, go over it to retrieve a bag of keys, then go down again, only to go up another wall with the aid of a giant ball.  From there, two tribe members solve a puzzle which creates a rebus puzzle two OTHER tribe members have to solve.  As you’d expect for this point in the game, the winning six get immunity and awesome-looking orange merge buffs, while the remainder are vulnerable at Tribal Council.  Like I said, pretty standard obstacle course, where it’s the little touches that make this an awesome challenge.  Using the sandbags as a platform, rather than just as weight, is great utilization.  I also find it hilarious that they brought out the giant balls again, only to just use them as a platform, rather than rolling them at all.  And the double-puzzle, in theory, is brilliant.  Helps to equalize the challenge even more, and makes it harder for one good puzzle-person to just sweep through for their team, since they can’t directly work on both.  

That said, I do have to note that the latter point is purely a theoretical “good”.  The issue here is that the rebus puzzle was too easy.  As we’ll see, the tribe that was behind did a good job catching up, but the puzzle was just breezed through such that it didn’t matter.  Now, it could be that the winning team just had the better puzzle people in general, but it could also be that the second puzzle was just so easy as to be pretty irrelevant.  Since it lets me be a snarky jerk on the internet, I’m going with the second option.  

A random rock draw gives us the red team, consisting of Kaleb, Emily, Jake, Kellie, Dee, and J. Maya.  Our blue team, meanwhile, is Bruce, Kendra, Julie, Austin, Drew, and Sifu.  Decently even teams overall, with both having some good brawn and some good puzzle people.  I’d give the edge to blue team for having slightly bigger physical guns, but with how often challenges come down to puzzles (when the puzzles aren’t so easy a literal four year old could figure them out), I could see this one going either way.  That said, when Katurah, the only person not randomly drawn to a team, bets on the blue team for herself, I understand the logic.  Plus, her ally Kendra is on there, so it makes strategic sense as well.  

Katurah makes the right decision, as it turns out.  It’s not a blowout, but J. Maya puts red behind during the mud crawl, and they never fully recover.  Again, a tougher puzzle might have helped with that.  Probst sends our losers off to wash off, while our winners go to “The Sanctuary”, where Probst tells us “Good Things Happen”.  Probst, stop trying to make that a catchphrase.  It’s not going to work.  

I did not notice any sandwiches at the feast, but the vibes are so good, we are spared a presumed Austin rant over his ongoing lack of a sandwich.  Strategic talk soon starts up as well, so we are spared another Drew rant as well.  J. Maya is once again put out as a consensus boot, with Sifu being the main pusher.  Julie backs it up, even confirming the “J voted for Sifu” story, mostly to protect her number one ally Dee from suspicion there.  Gotta say, nice subtle strategic play from Julie there.  Bruce, however, is not off his “Get rid of Kaleb” idea, and Kendra is there to back him up.  Only Katurah seems to push back on the idea, pitching an Emily boot instead.  Privately, Katurah admits that it’s weird that her allies, who’d largely wanted to work with Kaleb, now actively target him.  

For their part, the losers of the challenge quickly land on J. Maya as the boot as well.  J. Maya pitches Kaleb in return, but no one left seems to really want to go for it, and our winners getting back and being on board as well only seems to seal the deal.  It’s only Bruce talking to Drew that seems to change things.  Drew admits the only reason he didn’t target Kaleb was because he thought it would “Bring the wrath of Belo down upon him.”  With that fear out of the way, and Kaleb being an admitted social, physical, and strategic threat, Drew now sets about swaying everyone over to the Kaleb plan.  Pretty much all of Reba is willing to get on board.  They may not trust J. Maya, but at least they have a pre-existing relationship with her.  None of them have really known Kaleb outside of his one-time trip to their camp, so he’s the easiest one to cut loose.  Guess that “Goodwill Advantage” didn’t buy much, huh?

Only Emily and Katurah seem to dissent on the plan, and neither of them have much power to influence things the other way.  Katurah can’t stick her neck out against these numbers, and while Emily does put a token effort into defending Kaleb, saying he’ll be loyal if saved, there’s not much she can do.  Even she admits she’ll probably have to vote Kaleb if push comes to shove.  She is at least kind enough to clue Kaleb in.  He sets about to scrambling, but he’s clearly desperate, and admits he doesn’t think it’ll work very well.  He DOES give us a great episode title in the process, however, declaring “I’m not Batman… I’m the Canadian.”  Hilarious.  

For how much of a threat he’s rightly built up to be, I actually think sticking with the J. Maya plan would be the better one overall.  Kaleb is a big threat, but voting him out will be a major shake-up int he dynamics, creating a lot of chaos.  J. Maya is a nice consensus boot who can slip below the radar very easily, and like I said before, pretty much everyone has some incentive to get rid of her.  Now, granted, you don’t want Kaleb getting to the end.  He beats literally everyone left in the game, and I’d be willing to say he beats everyone already voted out, if there’s another “Edge of Extinction” thing going on we aren’t privy to.  

But the thing about Kaleb is that he’s a VISIBLE threat.  He’s not like a Jesse (“Survivor 43”) where no one even thinks about him until almost too late.  Everyone knows Kaleb has to go, so he effectively works as a shield for everybody.  The shield has to be discarded at some point, but Final 13 feels a tad too early in my book.  About the only major risk to keeping Kaleb around is that he goes on an immunity tear, and this was your only chance.  Not impossible, but given the number of other good challenge competitors still around, unlikely.  I should also say that getting rid of Kaleb is hardly a STUPID move for anyone.  It’s another “No bad choice” situation.  I just think J. Maya is the slightly better choice.  

Initially, Tribal Council is nothing to write home about.  Less because things are particularly dull, but more because there’s just too many people.  I stand behind these large merges being difficult to follow, and while the relatively simple dynamics of this season, coupled with longer episodes, make this the most comprehensible merge in a LONG time, Tribal Council still feels too full.  Merge at 10 at the earliest, guys.  

All that changes when it becomes clear that Kaleb is the target.  I say this not because anyone gives anything away, but because Kaleb himself starts openly talking strategy, and advocating that J. Maya go.  This is clearly a desperate play a smart player like Kaleb would not make if he were not certain he was on the block tonight.  He attempts to argue the “J. Maya lowers Reba’s threat level” specifically to Dee and Julie, but this kind of backfires on it.  Dee, fairly, sees it as her name being thrown out as a threat, and now doesn’t want to work with Kaleb as much.  

With the writing on the wall, Kaleb does the only thing he can do without an idol: Play his shot in the dark.  Now, I’m not one to say “Survivor” is rigged, but if I were, this would be Exhibit A as to why it is.  A 1/6 shot, and Kaleb wins it?!  One of your big characters on the season, with the alternative target being a player who seems nice enough, but ultimately hasn’t impacted much?  Yeah, if I’m a producer, I want Kaleb to stick around as well.  And MAN, this is an epic moment, as literally everyone, even Emily, voted for Kaleb.  It’s “Wentworth will not count” from “Survivor Cambodia” all over again, and it is glorious once again!  He smashes her record, negating a total of 11 votes against him (Austin didn’t vote in order to lengthen his idol’s duration, which with these numbers is understandable), though admittedly they were negated with a shot in the dark rather than an idol, so both records probably stand independently.  

A revote at which no more shots in the dark can be played now imminent, whispering ensues, and for once, a relatively justified example.  J. Maya pushes extremely hard for Emily, while Emily tries to argue loyalty and going back to the original plan.  Both plausible, but in the end, the power of a consensus boot wins out.  J. Maya is sent home by every vote save her own, and I’m both sorry and not sorry.  She was easily the least-exciting character of those up on the chopping block tonight (ok, maybe Kellie had less personality, but no one seriously targeted her this episode, so I don’t count her), so if one of those had to go home, best it be her.  That said, while she was no genius, she wasn’t terrible at strategy, and I have a soft spot for her early attempted code-breaking of the tribe sign.  Hopefully you get a second chance someday, J. Maya.  

Honestly, this is probably the best merge we’ve had in an exceptionally long time.  Like I said, a combination of more time and simple tribe dynamics made this easier to follow, and more fun as a result.  Awesome as Kaleb’s successful shot in the dark was, it was just icing on the cake to seeing these groups slam together, and hash out a target.  Well done, show.  

I’ll sign off with this thought: Much as Emily’s growth has been shown and talked about, the climax of this episode is what really showed it.  When given the choice between her and someone relatively inoffensive, she was unanimously saved.  That’s impressive right there.  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 4: Quiplash

Welcome to “Quiplash”, I mean, “Idol Speculation”!  I’m your host, Schmatty, the Baron of Blogs!  I’m going to get to know far too much about you in the comments section, and I’m at peace with that.  

If you don’t get the reference, stop reading and go find a game of Quiplash to join.  It’s fun, and a joke later on will make much more sense if you do.  The blog will be here when you get back.  

Speaking of getting back, Little Lulu has just gotten back from Tribal Council, and Sean is surprisingly happy.  I know I’m always harping on about “Don’t let how pissed you are show” when you’re on the wrong side of a blindside, but there is such a thing as TOO much.  More reasonable is Kaleb’s happiness, who rightly pats himself on the back for building up that relationship with Emily.  It has definitely borne fruit.  

In confessional, Sean admits that he’s aware that he’s now on the bottom, and wasn’t aware of how close Kaleb and Emily are.  Smart reaction, though again, dude, you’re a bit over-the-top in saying how happy you are to still be there.  Sure enough, Emily is rightly suspicious of his attitude, though showing how much development she’s had this season, keeps it for confessional rather than saying it directly to his face.  The above are all valid thoughts, though I’ll admit that I’m a bit distracted by the fact that they clearly stole music from “Quiplash”, or at least a sound-alike, for this scene.  

Sean also takes the time to tell us how he hopes for a tribe swap, proving that even though they haven’t been seen since “Survivor Winners at War”, the show just can’t resist their obvious foreshadowing confessionals.  

Out swap comes upon us, though not before we get major shocked reactions from Reba and Belo.  More justified than when Brandon left, at least.  Drew correctly points out that Sabiyah was a competitor, which the other tribes reinforce.  Knowing where to go to get a good sound-byte, Probst then asks Emily if there’s a perverse pleasure in the other teams not knowing how their games are playing out.  Emily admits there is, but also notes, truthfully, that being the team that constantly loses also sucks.  Probst then asks Brando (who, with Brandon from Little Lulu gone, gets promoted to full “Brandon” this one time when Probst speaks) what this means.  He acknowledges that Little Lulu has had to play the game more, but he’s happy with the tribe right now.  

Naturally, this is the perfect segway for a tribe swap, Probst’s own admitted perverse pleasure.  Also, as he correctly identifies, the first proper one in the “new era”.  Even production realizes the one-person rotation from last season shouldn’t count.  It’s been so long since we’ve had this, it’s quite refreshing.  I’m not even mad that it’s just a random buff draw, instead of something more exciting!  

Further emphasizing Brando’s point from earlier, while Belo and Reba show at least a bit of reverence toward their buffs, with Dee even kissing hers goodbye, those from Little Lulu are all too eager to go somewhere new, and quickly take off their buffs.  Kaleb even spits on his, which I’d say MIGHT be going too far, but then again I haven’t been on a losing streak on “Survivor”.  

Our new tribes shake out with each Little Lulu member going to a different tribe.  Kaleb stays on Little Lulu, joined by Bruce, Jake, Katurah, and Kellie, all from the original Belo.  Sean, in contrast, is sent to Reba with all original Reba, specifically Dee, Julie, Sifu, and J. Maya.  Only Emily gets a taste of both tribes, joining Brando and Kendra on Belo, with Dean and Austin from Reba joining them.  

Honestly, an interesting shake-out overall.  I wouldn’t say these tribes are particularly “Even”, since Little Lulu got most of the physical “big guns”, while most of the puzzle pros went to Belo.  That said, apart from MAYBE Julie, there’s no obvious “challenge sink” on new Reba, and while Sifu is really their only “big gun” physically, he’s a VERY big gun.  The original members of Little Lulu all being split up also opens some good possibilities, especially since I wouldn’t say any of them are particularly screwed.  Emily is probably in the best position, both short-term and long-term.  Short-term, the obvious thing is for the two pairs to try and swing her, and long-term, if she plays her cards write, she can get some info on the dynamics of both other tribes.  Sean also kind of landed in the middle, since J. Maya and Sifu were outside the main Reba alliance, and could be easy sacrifices if he plays his cards right.  And Kaleb got SUPER lucky that he ended up on a tribe with both Katurah and Bruce.  With those two together, and how much Katurah has been on the warpath against Bruce, no WAY they go to Tribal Council in the unlikely event they lose.  

Speaking of Kaleb, we DO check in on Little Lulu first, but not so much with him.  Everyone goes in for a big group hug upon returning to camp… All except Bruce, who kind of sits there with a weird look on this face.  I’m half-convinced that he’s suddenly turned into the ultimate killjoy, before he reveals that this is the old Tika camp from “Survivor 44”.  He may have spent less than 12 hours there, but there’s still a bond, and it makes him pretty emotional.  Honestly, it’s a raw, impactful scene that really works, and is about the only time I’m happy the show keeps reusing the same locations these days.  If they kept moving around, we wouldn’t have got this moment from Bruce.  I’d still prefer they move, mind you, at least every other season, but this is still a nice consolation if we can’t have that.  The rest of the tribe is supportive, and once he has his really impactful moment, he joins in on the hug, so no harm done there.  

What IS harmful to his is Katurah’s line of questioning.  Specifically, she wants to hear from Kaleb, not Bruce, what happened on the journey that Brandon went on earlier in the season.  Kaleb tells her the truth, which doesn’t contradict anything Bruce said.  However, the way she silenced Bruce when he tried to interject turns this from a one-sided feud into a two-sided feud.  Bruce is now on the warpath against Katurah, and it seems he may have an edge up on her in winning over Kaleb.  Jake and Kaleb talk about their conversation from the “Sweat or Savvy” challenge, about how they wanted to work together come the merge.  

What’s that?  You don’t remember that conversation?  NEITHER DOES ANYONE ELSE, BECAUSE IT WAS NEVER SHOWN!  Ok, I’ve not had a lot to complain about this season, and in the grand scheme of things, this is hardly a bad way to show it, but really?  90-minute episodes, and you STILL couldn’t have shown even a SNIPPET of that conversation?  Oh well, point is Kaleb may now be more inclined to work against Katurah, unfortunately for her.  

Moving over to Belo, Emily sees this as a fresh start for her.  She may have made a bad first impression, but she can try and make up for it, having learned her lesson from early on.  It does seem to work, as Drew notes that while they had thought of Emily as “mean”, in talking to her she’s more “normal”.  Emily’s excited reaction on seeing Kendra start the fire definitely helps as well.  I might be a bit worried about her former tribe members painting a bad picture of her on the other tribes, but really, who’s left that’s going to do it?  Probably not Kaleb, since they’re aligned, and Sean seems too nice to throw her under the bus that much.  Sabiyah would have been the one to be worried about, and she’s gone now.  

Not to say that Emily doesn’t talk ANY strategy, as she does fill the rest of the tribe in on how last Tribal Council went down.  I’d normally complain about being too open, but in this case, Emily doesn’t really give much away.  Basically all she says is Sabiyah went home with an idol, which is all true information that doesn’t hurt Emily’s game per se, and could even help her.  Both in the stated “seeming honest” that she brings up, but also in that she mentions the method of revealing the idol.  While this season may have a different method for each tribe to get their idol, Emily can’t possibly know that, and by mentioning it, might raise suspicion in the ranks she can use to her advantage.  At least from her perspective, but even in reality, it doesn’t particularly harm her game.  

Reba, unfortunately for Sean, seems determined to remain “Reba Strong”.  All admit that they like his energy, but worry about cutting one of their team too soon.  Frankly, I wouldn’t in their shoes.  With the original Little Lulu so far down in numbers, you’re unlikely to come in with a true minority, at worst the middle of the pack in terms of members left.  This, then, would leave Belo as the obvious target, allowing you to play the role of kingmaker for yourselves come the merge.  It’d be one thing to stay “Reba Strong” if it was all the majority alliance plus Sean, but I don’t think Drew or Austin are going to be too upset if you cut Sifu or J Maya at this stage.  

Luckily for Sean, he might have an “in” as well.  “Reba Strong” might be the phrase that pays today, but those factions are still there.  J Maya in particular gets along with Sean well, and we FINALLY get a scene of her strategizing, and not just about trying to decipher the sign code.  She lets Sean in on Sifu’s idol-hunting ways, potentially giving him a crack he can exploit.  And if nothing else, it’s nice to get more J Maya content.  I may be rooting for Emily, but I still like her a lot.  

Going back to Little Lulu, Kellie tells us she was happy to see the tribe she was on, both for their physical prowess, and for her safety.  Still, since she’s closer with Bruce and Jake than she is with Katurah currently, she doesn’t seem inclined to work with her, instead going off for a walk with both Kaleb and Bruce.  Katurah, not being an idiot, realizes what’s going on, and so walks Kaleb to the well one-on-one to spill the ENTIRE can of beans regarding Bruce.  This isn’t information Kaleb couldn’t have picked up on himself, so really, the main point of the scene is to get the hilarious montage of Katurah ranting about all of Bruce’s flaws in her eyes.  Kaleb notes that between the information and the water, he’s no longer thirsty.  Nice line, my guy.  

Back at Belo, Emily notes that while she THINKS she’s the swing between the two pairs, they could all easily decide to turn against her.  Thankfully, we immediately see this WON’T be the case.  While Drew and Austin admit they could “Take over the tribe” with all the advantages they have (which is perhaps overselling it since two of those advantages are “Safety Without Power” and the “Goodwill Advantage”, though I cannot deny that the idol could be a game-maker, especially when no one else has one), they’d rather do it though social play.  As such, they want Emily along to also go “Reba Strong” come the merge, which I have to admit is pretty strong language for someone you really only JUST MET a day ago.  The pair do strike first, from what we see, and Emily is naturally amenable to any plan that doesn’t involve her going.  That said, given how much “Reba Strong” is brought up, I’m not sure they’d be her best choice.  Original Belo seems more fractured, so going with them might be better for the long-term game, though not sure there’s a good way for Emily to realize that at this juncture.  

Can Belo sway Emily to their side?  We don’t see them attempt that this episode, but if they talk with her, I’d say there’s at least some chance.  Best to have Brando do the talking, though.  From what we’ve seen, I feel like Kendra’s zodiac talk is more likely to turn Emily off than anything.  

Checking in at Reba again, while targeting Sean is all well and good, the idol is still a possibility.  Sean did say he didn’t have it, but of course he’d say that whether he had the idol or not.  Of course, not saying it would also seem suspicious.  Point is, Sean can’t win for losing.  While he’s off for a chat with J Maya, Dee, Julie, and Sifu all go through his bag, taking care to make sure they know how to re-tie the very specific knot he used on his bag.  Good attention to detail, you three.  They don’t find anything, though of course this leads to speculation that it’s on Sean’s person.  When J Maya comes back, however, she’s more on the “Get Sifu Out” train, which raises Julie’s hackles a bit for her being so quick to get rid of “Reba Strong”.  Foreshadowing?  Only time will tell.  

Time also tells us that we’re due for an awesome immunity challenge!  True, it’s mostly reused elements, but they’re combined in some new ways.  Tribes swim out to a cage, where they must untie two poles.  In the most epic part of the challenge, they then use said poles to CARRY THE FREAKING CAGE up the beach to a designated spot.  Once there, one tribe member digs UNDER the cage to be a ball retriever, while the rest of the tribe shoots baskets from inside the cage, first two tribes to finish winning immunity.  Like I said, we’ve seen most of these elements before, but something about carrying the cage adds good visual spectacle.  I also like how it isn’t just for one phase.  Digging under a part of the challenge you transported is somehow sadistic, and I love it.  And hey, we even have good content from all three tribes, so who wins is somewhat a mystery!

While the foreshadowing may have been even, new Belo is doubtless unhappy to see this challenge.  Apart from maybe Austin, they don’t really have a good physical counter to either tribe.  Their strength is in puzzle, so a puzzle-less challenge is a poor sight for them.  Sure enough, the new Little Lulu frankly dominates this one, to Kaleb’s delight.  That said, while Sifu does carry the new Reba (in some cases literally with the cage), new Belo hold their own.  A combination of Austin being good at tossing, and Julie being a bad ball retriever for new Reba net them a narrow win.  This also means Little Lulu finally gets flint, much to Kaleb’s delight.  A dejected Reba heads out, J Maya commenting that Sifu needs to go now, which will doubtless come true and is not misdirection whatsoever.  

Before we can get to the scheming, however, Kaleb’s joy now that he has fire must be fully enjoyed.  Kaleb invokes the spirt of “Survivor Ghost Island”, in saying the curse is reversed.  I’d say not the most auspicious season to invoke, but hey, I like it more than most, so you do you, Kaleb.  Bruce fakes having lost the flint long enough that I worry he might ACTUALLY have done it, but thankfully he just kept it in a zipper pocket.  Ok, Bruce, that will be funny in HINDSIGHT, but seems kind of cruel to the guy who’s gone nine days without fire.  After that, however, there’s really not much more to it than that.  Kaleb makes fire, the tribe celebrates, it’s nice.  Moving on…

After joking that Sean might be bad luck (which Sean takes with a surprising amount of grace), the tribe gets down to their discussions.  Despite the foreshadowing earlier, J Maya is not brought up, and indeed seems like an equal partner with Dee and Julie (who Sean has taken to calling “Mama J” like the rest of the tribe, despite having one day with her at most).  The trio discuss whether to get rid of Sifu or Sean, seeming to settle on the former, as they tell Sean that all the “Reba Strong” talk at Tribal will be just for show.  Sean smartly doesn’t fully trust that, but also has very little choice here.  

In the debate of “Sean vs. Sifu”, the correct answer is J Maya.  Look, for all that we see her strategizing with the other women on the tribe, from what we saw before, she was on the outs at the original Reba.  Dean and Austin notably didn’t want her told about the idol, whereas they did let Julie and Dee in on it (not that they had much choice, but still, didn’t even look like they considered it).  As I said, you probably want to sacrifice at least ONE tribe member pre-merge so you don’t seem like too big of a threat when you DO merge, but no more people than necessary.  If we assume that the merge will not come for another three Tribal Councils, including this one (admittedly predicting the merge is a tricky business, but it seems like a reasonable possibility), then losing Sifu is bad, even if it makes your tribe seem less threatening in the long run.  Sifu is basically the ONLY reason you were in the immunity challenge, so losing him now turns you into Little Lulu 2.0.  Yes, you have Sean as a buffer, as you mention, but that’s still getting rid of one more Reba member than necessary, assuming three more Tribals before the merge.  Sean keeps you better in challenges, but again, you lose the “Reba seems less threatening” upside.  

J Maya, however?  Keeps the challenge strength while also having the “Reba seems less threatening” upside.  Plus, you’d be getting rid of someone from outside the main alliance who is really showing themselves to be a strategic threat as of this episode.  The only risk is that Drew and Austin might be mad, but again, given what we’ve seen, I don’t think that’s going to be the case.  

If it MUST be Sifu vs. Sean, however, with no J Maya in contention, Sean is the correct choice.  Better to have a shot at winning challenges than to sacrifice a member of the tribe, and possibly of the core alliance, depending on how things shake out.  

For all the good drama and misdirection leading up to it, Tribal is sadly a rather boring affair.  Metaphors are back, people!  I did get a kick of out Sifu bringing up the good vibes Sean brings, but in the process he also calls out his occupation, including the meaning of his nickname.  I thought he said pre-season he was going to keep that under wraps, or at least downplay it, but maybe I’m just misremembering that.  Not a major blunder, but something I found noteworthy.  

If people remember anything about this Tribal Council, they’ll remember Sean’s speech.  He starts off with a bold, if controversial, move: Referencing “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  Yes, he talks about the influence his first-grade teacher had on him.  Sadly I don’t think “Teaching Time with Sean” will catch on, even to the very little that “Teaching Time with Tommy” did.  Alliteration matters.  

Ah, but I shouldn’t mock what comes across as a touching moment.  Sean talks about the difficulties growing up gay in a conservative Mormon area, admits that he misses his husband, and thinks he’s gotten what he needs out of the game.  As such, he tells the rest of Reba to write him down so they can go on; he’s happy with his fate.  There’s tears and confusion about, and I… Don’t buy this.  

Oh, I buy the emotion, 100%  Sean is a very heart-on-his-sleeve social guy from what little we’ve seen of him, so I totally think he’s genuine in what he says.  Except for the “quit” part.  My read, based purely on feeling, is that Sean saw the writing on the wall for his fate, and was simply letting them do what they were going to do anyway with a guilt-free conscience.  Sort of a “Rafe Freeing Danni” moment like on “Survivor Guatemala”: You know it’s coming, so might as well try and have everyone go ahead with no hard feelings.  

That said, I will freely admit that the evidence in the episode does not bear this out.  Dee and Julie go into a panic about what to do, Dee insisting they stick to voting out Sifu.  Sean also writes down Dee’s name, someone he HAD to know wasn’t going home, which seems like throwing his vote as someone who genuinely wants out might, rather than someone just giving people permission if that’s what they intend to do.  So yeah, my feeling may be completely off on this one, and I accept that if it is.  Just how it felt to me watching it.  

Whether a true quit or just a guy being nice, Sean gets his wish.  While not the most exciting from a character standpoint, I am sorry to see him go.  Dude seemed like a genuinely nice guy with some good social play (if occasionally over the top), and so might have been able to make a deep run under different circumstances.  The bigger characters stayed, but we lost a darn nice guy in the process.  

Those big characters may make big waves, however.  In the worst of all possible worlds, Dee still voted for Sifu, something he noticed and is unlikely to take lying down.  Perhaps Reba should lose another challenge after all…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Episode 1: Monty Python and the Holy Idol

You know, it really is a shame they didn’t cast Brandon on “Survivor 44”.  Thanks to him I can make Monty Python references, but they would have been so much more appropriate last season.  All the “It’s just a flesh wound!” jokes I could have made…

My readers, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you to the return of “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  We’ve got a new season to cover with routinely longer episodes, so let us not waste any more time and dive right in.  

As is the norm nowadays, we open with everyone on a boat talking about the game a bit.  Mostly bog-standard stuff at this point, but we do get a couple of fun sound bytes from some players.  The most notable for me and Emily and Sifu.  The former is technically one we’ve heard before, the “I’m here for the money and nothing else.” confessional, but this is something of a rarity in the modern era, where it’s all about the “experience”.  I’m not as down on the whole “inspirational stories” thing as some other fans, but even I’ll admit this makes for a refreshing change.  Sifu’s confessional is notable less for its content and more for the energy he brings.  Dude is all smiles and air guitar, and that charm is just infectious as far as I’m concerned.  I could see him being divisive given what we’ll see later, but for now, I’m on the “Love it” side for him.  

Everyone hauls themselves up on the boat.  Normally Probst would address the elephant on the boat, namely Bruce returning from “Survivor 44”.  Brandon, however, makes such a show of emotion that it overshadows even Probst’s happiness at Bruce’s return.  Brandon gives the “relatable fan” confessional about how he’s feeling just being here, and Probst is satisfied.  

But even blatant fanboying cannot keep Probst away from Bruce for long.  Bruce talks about how he’s just happy to be here.  Really emphasizing how he’s a normal player, just like everybody else.  Probably what he needs to do to avoid the stigma of a returning player, and too his credit, he does it pretty subtly.  Not invisibly, however, as Emily calls him out on doing this exact thing, pointing out that while he may not know the game overall better than everyone else here (I mean, he was only in it for 12 hours, most of that concussed), he does have a psychological edge from having been through at least this part of the game before.  Bruce deflects again pretty well, saying that everyone has skills they specifically bring to the game, but again, Emily calls him out on doing just this.  

I’m of two minds on this.  On the one hand, I can’t argue Emily isn’t speaking the truth.  Not a dig against Bruce here; the man really did pull it off as well as he could.  It’s just that someone caught on despite this, and it’s perfectly good to call it out, lest we end up with another “Survivor Redemption Island” situation where the returnee just does what they want and everyone else agrees.  On the other hand, a public forum where you’re making your first impression is MAYBE not the smartest place to put all this out?  You show your intelligence far too early, and since you’re calling out the guy everyone remembers as “the concussed one”, you seem like you’re “punching down” to use comedy terms.  Really, the only firm conclusion I can draw from this is that I’m glad I picked Emily as my favorite.  Is she a great “Survivor” player?  No, not based on this and stuff we’ll see later, but I love it when someone uses their intelligence to call out others.  

Probst goes on to name our tribes (I guess red team doesn’t get a mat confessional this season?), and we need to talk about these.  Not just because I accidentally misnamed one of them in my case assessment (if you would just RELEASE that information with the cast, CBS, we wouldn’t have this issue), but also because of what they are.  While all these names, like most of the non-merge tribe names in the new era, are pretty pathetic (I feel like a tribe name needs five letters minimum to work well), one of them lends itself to far too obvious a joke.  Like Baka on “Survivor 43” before them, it’s all anyone can see, and the humor cannot be ignored.  

We have a tribe that feels like it’s named after the comic “Little Lulu”.  Thus shall they henceforth be called.  This is the only source of humor from tribe names this season.  There are absolutely, 100% no obvious jokes relating to names that I’m ignoring.  

Keeping the parallel to Baka, Little Lulu is the yellow tribe.  Our red tribe is Reba and our blue tribe is Belo.  So named, Probst describes their challenge.  Sadly not a raid of the ship (never thought I’d see the day when I missed that), it’s basically a 3-stage obstacle course.  First stage has two people hauling stuff from one box to another, the second has two more people swim out to a raft with a key, which they paddle back, then climb onto the boat again.  Remaining two then use the key to unlock poles to maneuver flint off a spring, the first team to do so getting supplies, and not having to do “Sweat or Savvy”.  Again, like the confessionals on the boat, pretty bog-standard.  

In fairness, while the challenge itself is not that exciting, there is good back and forth to help MAKE it seem exciting.  Reba takes the initial lead, with Little Lulu not far behind and Belo trailing.  Belo for some reason decided to put Bruce on the portion involving lifting heavy objects over one’s head, which seems a great risk, but perhaps that’s why they’re a bit slow at it.  Little Lulu actually turns out to be the best group of swimmers and paddlers, only for it to turn out that Brandon, one of said paddlers, is the worst ladder climber.  Belo is actually the first to move onto the third portion, and Reba takes back second due to this performance.  In fairness to Brandon, I will say that said ladder did look difficult to climb up, and Brandon proves to be overall a lot less athletic than he looks.  That said, panicking and giving up?  That’s entirely on him.  

Little Lulu is not out of it yet, as Hannah and Emily seem overall the most competent at maneuvering the flint, by which I mean they’re the only ones we don’t see whacking at it like a piñata.  To be fair, though, Reba also eventually uses the more chopsticks-like method, and that plus their being ahead of Little Lulu otherwise makes them the winners.  

Since we need to vary up the “Sweat or Savvy” lest it be COMPLETE repetition, our losing teams now have to have people volunteer BEFORE they know the exact nature of the competition, and go off to a separate beach to do it instead of the tribe camp.  Brando (in what I THINK counts as an opening mat confessional) and Jake end up going for Belo, while Sabiyah and Kaleb go for Little Lulu.  Everyone else heads off to their camps, save for Brandon who stays behind to get checked out by medical.  Given how exhausted he looks, I can understand it, but I have to ask, why send the rest of his tribe away?  Let them hang around, so they don’t have to wait to find out his fate.  Plus, that way you can get a “Survivor” Moment™ out of their reaction.  I guess there’s the “Other tribes would have more shelter-building time” argument, but as we’ll soon see, without materials there’s not much they could do anyway.  Let them stay until he’s evacuated or cleared.  

We check in with our winners first.  Riding the high of their victory, J. Maya calls her tribe “stacked”, saying they have the “Brains, Brawn, and Morale” over the other tribes.  I’d point out that challenge was decently close, all things considered, but hey, hard to argue with results.  The tribe also notices some weird writing above and below the name on the tribe flag, but we’ll save that for later.  In the meantime, everyone does the standard “name, occupation” style introduction.  Only thing of note here is Julie lying about her occupation, not wanting to reveal her status as an attorney (a common theme this season).  Reasonable enough to do, but she does so with one of the worst poker faces I’ve ever seen.  No one calls her out on it, but to me, that was obviously a fib.  

Cementing the “Maybe a public call-out of Bruce wasn’t the best idea” line of thinking, Emily is all that Belo can talk about initially.  Bruce calls her out for calling him out, and it looks like most of his tribemates present are on his side, and now have a dislike of Emily.  Way to make a good first impression, Emily.  Though to be fair, with how great Bruce’s facial expressions are in this scene, it’d be hard not to side with him in any case.  

Talk then turns to setting up camp, and Bruce reassures everyone that he is not there to be the leader.  If you remember Russell Swan’s performance on “Survivor Philippines”, you can imagine how this goes.  Look, I’ll cut Bruce some slack.  Saying he knows how to weave palm fronds when volunteers are asked for is not really being a “leader”.  But as his tribe will rightly point out, he still has big opinions on how everything should go, and kind of steps into the role in spite of himself.  Only time will tell how much a detriment that is long-term.  

Little Lulu, having only three people while Brandon gets looked at, is kind of at a loss.  The three who remain, Sean, Emily, and Hannah, kind of vaguely agree to work together (with Emily explicitly expressing concern that Kaleb and Sabiyah were quick to volunteer to leave for the challenge) and try to get something going shelter-wise, but are stymied by the lack of tools.  There’s also concern about whether they’ll EVER get them, based on the “Savvy or Sweat”.  This, then, gives us a segue into looking at said challenge.  It’s largely standard.  The “Sweat” is hauling a bunch of logs across the beach, while “Savvy” is untangling a rope from around a much of towers, freeing a flint to win.  There’s two catches that previous iterations of this do not have.  First is that despite the name, it’s not an “or” but an “and”, as in both portions of the challenge need to be completed before the timer runs out, not just one.  Makes who to pick a bit trickier overall.  The other is that, rather than just being a race against time, it’s a race against EACH OTHER.  Yes, evidently the producers are tired of everyone winning this challenge no problem, so now they’re going to force at least one tribe to lose no matter what.  And on that “Dun-Dun-DUN!” moment, we cut to commercial.  Editing gold.  

We check in briefly with Little Lulu here again, mostly to see that Brandon’s look from medical was so inconsequential, it didn’t even warrant us seeing it.  Brandon comes back to camp to inform us that he’s not dead, and that he feels fine and feeeeeeeeeels happyyyyyyyyyy!  With the obligatory reference out of the way, they try once again to get some sort of shelter going minus tools, leading to Brandon and Hannah bonding over how anxious they’re getting.  Brandon for the obvious “I screwed up a challenge” reason, while Hannah has a more general “The elements are tough” moment, though she admits nicotine withdrawal is a factor.  The pair have a good human bonding moment, before hauling back a large stick of bamboo.  Not much, but it’s something.  

Emily, continuing to make arguably the worst first-impression possible, expresses skepticism about how the “Savvy or Sweat” will go.  This gives us all the reason we need to cut back to it.  With the rules set, both tribes give it their go.  Sabiyah starts off as our narrator, talking about how tough the challenge was.  She notes that she even started talking to herself.  She presents this as a weird coping mechanism, but from what little I know of physically-exhausting activities, it seems pretty normal.  In this case, it’s pretty effective too, as she and Kaleb get a slight lead on the puzzle portion.  Jake tells us not to worry, that he and Brando have the smarts to beat them on the puzzle.  This is immediately followed up by Brando admitting he has no idea how to do this kind of puzzle.  Again, the comedy is pretty good this episode, if nothing else.  

We cut away without finding out if there was a winner, as well as the realization that Belo is having just as much trouble sans tools as Little Lulu is.  They express hope that Jake and Brando return victorious, which naturally means we immediately get them coming back in defeat.  They say that both teams lost, which at first I think is them lying.  After all, why not show us the end of the challenge, if not to set up a fake out?  But no, Sabiyah and Kaleb come back empty-handed as well, though as we’ll see, in overall a slightly better position than their counterparts on Belo.  Sean informs Sabiyah of Emily’s comments, which I’m sure will in NO WAY impact later conversations!

Back at Belo, we get the first hint of alliances forming there, as the women all discover they have September birthdays.  Between that and the sad recent trend of women leaving pre-merge, they agree to stick together, which I can’t fault them for.  I will fault them for bringing it back to zodiac signs, since people talking about that is one of MY pet peeves (hence why I haven’t really been mentioning Kendra, the main person bringing them up.  It’s all spite here.), but hey, I’ve heard of worse reasons to make an alliance.  Power to them.  

They discuss targets, with it landing on Jake for being an attorney, and therefore smart/untrustworthy.  The irony, of course, is that Katurah, also an attorney, is part of this conversation.  She, however, is wise enough to keep her mouth shut, saying she’s an office manager instead.  As she has a better poker face than Julie, I won’t fault anyone for not catching on to this.  In a funny scene, Katurah even doubles-down by playing dumb with Jake and asking him basic questions regarding his profession.  Point Katurah.  Not much else to say here.  

Over at Little Lulu, Emily continues to anti-ingratiate herself.  Despite the lack of tools, they’ve manage to use their ingenuity to get a halfway decent shelter going.  Ok, “halfway decent” is maybe too much credit, but we’ve seen worse shelters on this show.  This is not Rupert’s Deathtrap from “Survivor All-Stars”, nor the Younger Men’s “Two Sticks and a Palm Frond” from “Survivor Exile Island”.  And these guys at least have the “No tools” excuse.  Point Little Lulu, if we’re pitting these shelters against each other.  

So how does Emily factor into this.  Well as Sabiyah lets us know, and we hear from Emily’s own mouth in a second, she’s kind of negative about the whole thing.  While the rest of the tribe tries to figure out ways to make something work, Emily is the one pointing out that it CAN’T work, for various reasons.  The legitimacy of these reasons varies, but whether they’re legitimate or not is irrelevant.  The smartest point made in an obnoxious way does not win friends and influence people, which is, you know, kind of the point of the game.  It’s less important to be right and more important to be inoffensive in how you make your point, and right now, Emily seems pretty incapable of doing that.  Which, to be fair, she did promise us would be the case before the game started, but that doesn’t make it any less a bad move.  

The counterpoint, however, is that it seems like living with these particular people might already be straining Emily’s limited patience.  She might not be playing the game well, but the look on her face when everyone else on her tribe immediately jumps to “aliens” as the builders of the pyramids says it all.  And I’m right there with her.  I would have an EXCEEDINGLY hard time not calling them out on this.  While strained, Emily is polite enough to their faces, but I can sympathize with what she’s having to deal with.  Still, it’s not good for her game that she’s having this much trouble this early.  

Reba is doing too well for them to be in any real contention of losing the immunity challenge, and thus we don’t get to see any sort of alliance form.  We do, however, get a crack in the form of Sifu.  That infectious energy sadly is not limited to confessional, and when you openly compare yourself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Sifu is openly and blatantly looking for idols, a fact people comment on and that ostracizes him from the tribe a fair amount.  It’s overall a boon to Austin, however, who can go and more subtly look for an idol or advantage without arousing much suspicion.  He does eventually find something, but takes it without reading.  He’s a bit put-out that it’s another Beware Advantage, but after a bit of deliberation, decides it’s worth the risk.  Probably the right call for him.  His tribe seems unlikely to lose in the immediate future, so he probably has some time.  Even if they do, Sifu can be made an easy target.  Good play by him here.  

The Beware Advantage this time around is largely as it has been.  There’s an idol you can get, but must complete some task before doing so, no voting until it’s complete.  The major difference here is that it’s now a SERIES of tasks, not just one.  First is that Austin must use a piece of parchment with half-letters on it, combined with the random symbols on the tribe flag, to figure out his next clue.  Told you they’d be relevant.  I admit, I’m torn on how I feel about this method for the Beware Advantage.  I think on the whole I come down on the side of liking it ok.  The fact that it’s less public than past Beware Advantage tasks alone is a plus in my book, and this very much feels like a treasure hunt.  As I mentioned with Tai’s hunt back in “Survivor Game Changers”, it feels very much like something out of “Indiana Jones”, and I’m all in favor of that.  Really, my only gripe is that this method is, by its nature more time-consuming, and I fear that moving forward, episodes will be bloated with more complicated advantages instead of giving us more time to get to know these new players.  

Off to our challenge.  Gee, I wonder if Reba will lose?  After all, apart from Austin finding the Beware Advantage, we’ve had all of about zero content from them!  No, this is clearly going to be a two-way race for last between Bero and Little Lulu, with the latter being favored to lose due to having had more content overall.  Instead, let’s look at our immunity idol.  This season it’s the bust of a notorious “Survivor” Villain: Pelican Pete, Osten’s arch-nemesis on “Survivor Pearl Islands”.  First finishers get the bust itself, second place gets the base.  Not the best idol, not the worst.  Fits with the logo of the season, decently cool-looking.  Do wish the second half was something other than the base, but at least it’s not two separate idols.  

Our challenge itself largely comes courtesy of the first immunity challenge of “Survivor South Pacific”.  Tribes race through some obstacles, then toss coconuts into a net to get it heavy enough to drop. This iteration, of course, adds a climbing wall and a puzzle at the end.  Because in the modern era, you can’t have a tribal challenge without a puzzle at the end.  First two tribes to finish win immunity, losers have Tribal Council and lose their flint.  Because you know, that’s still a thing.  Pretty small-scale for a first immunity challenge, but I do have a fondness for “Survivor South Pacific” since it was the first season I blogged.  I feel like that buoys this one up into an “ok” in my book.  

There might have been some mystery before the challenge as to who would lose, but hoo boy, do they not even bother trying to hide it once the challenge gets started.  Little Lulu is behind pretty much the entire time.  There was a slow start from basically everyone except Kaleb on the mud-crawl portion, but it’s the climbing wall where they really struggle.  Multiple falls from multiple people.  I’ll give them credit for ingenuity in using their buffs to create hand-holds for those running up, but that alone is not enough.  They do eventually scale the wall, but as Probst says, it’s largely a moral victory by then.  For once the puzzle was irrelevant, and Belo and Reba win immunity, in that order.  

Being one of the people who fell off the wall multiple times means Brandon has now arguably cost his tribe two challenges (jury’s still out on how much his individual performance affected the outcome in the immunity challenge vs. Little Lulu just generally not doing well in that challenge), and he thinks himself very much in danger.  Feeling emotional about the whole thing, he goes full Gabler (“Survivor 43”) and threatens to use his Shot in the Dark round one.  Between this, the mat confessional, and being on the yellow tribe on an odd-numbered season, Brandon is guaranteed to win now.  

Spoiled ending aside (just joking, all you nitpickers), Brandon is not the only one feeling down.  Hannah admits that the elements are getting to her, and her heart just isn’t in it anymore.  She talks about just leaving, but Brandon talks her out of it.  He exaggerates, to be sure, telling her she “has” to keep going when no, objectively she does not.  She can choose not to.  It seems to work, though, and the pair discuss how to stay alive.  Unsurprisingly, their decision is to target Emily for being the outlier of the tribe, and while she hasn’t outright cost the tribe a challenge yet, she’s not a physical strength.  She struggled in the mud crawl, and everything we’ve seen makes it clear that Kaleb and Sabiyah are physically carrying the tribe.  

Naturally, this means to save herself, Emily starts targeting the pair, citing their bond.  Now, if I’m going to be completely fair, I can see some logic in this.  On tribes this size, a tight pair needs to be nipped in the bud, and while there’s been nothing explicit, Kaleb and Sabiyah have been together in a lot of stuff.  While definitely not the best in terms of keeping the tribe strong for challenges, especially since Emily explicitly prefers to target Kaleb, who is the only one without a weak performance in a challenge yet (even Sabiyah struggled on the mud crawl), there is a logic to it, especially if you think your tribe won’t win challenges regardless.  It’s a go big or go home strategy.  If it works, you’re set up really well in the long-term.  If it doesn’t, you’re likely out super early.  Fitting with Emily’s earlier confessional about preferring to be out first if she doesn’t win.  That said, it can’t be denied that this is probably not the optimal strategy for Emily in this moment.  Based on what we’ve seen, she’s the outside; lucky to not be receiving a major target (Kaleb wanting Brandon out for his challenge performance), so best to just keep her head down and throw Brandon and/or Hannah under the bus.  

I would also be remiss if I didn’t point out what may be a worrying trend with Emily.  While she has called her tribe in general “idiots” most of her targeted ire this episode has been towards Bruce, Kaleb, and Sabiyah.  While each of these individually has their own justification (how much you buy each justification may vary), one can’t help but notice that all three are African-American, and thus, one can’t help but wonder if there’s a bias, unconscious or otherwise.  This may very well not be the case, but notably, when Emily DOES turn her ire on Hannah later on, her tone is noticeably kinder.  Again, I want to make no assumptions about Emily, and it is also worth noting that the context in which that ire came out was different.  My hope is that Emily is more equanimous in her ire moving forward, and I still enjoy her calling stuff out, but yeah, if this pattern continues, it certainly tints my enjoyment of her character.  

Shock of all shocks, word of this gets back to Kaleb!  Brandon spills the beans in an attempt to save himself.  Despite this obvious reason to mistrust Emily, Kaleb still would prefer to vote out Brandon for “Tribe Strength” as we head off to Tribal Council.  If that’s really his only criterion, it makes sense, but on the whole, I think Emily would be the smarter decision.  She may not have directly cost the tribe a challenge thus far, but she’s not seen to be contributing much at this point either.  If she’s someone you can’t trust, and just generally grating on the tribe, no reason to get rid of her.  

Man alive this Tribal Council set is boring.  Seriously, I just finished watching the episode and I barely remember it!  Completely nondescript.  Hey, maybe if we moved out of Fiji every once in a while, we wouldn’t have this problem!

Initially, the events of Tribal Council are barely more memorable than Tribal Council itself.  Mostly just everyone talking about Tribe dynamics.  Not even an annoying metaphor to make fun of.  Thankfully, Emily is there to stir up more drama, first doing the smart thing of pointing out Brandon’s weakness in challenges, before being explicit about the threat the pair of Kaleb and Sabiyah are.  Hardly one to take things lying down, Sabiyah employs the Sean Rector defense of “Survivor Marquesas”, pointing out that people are assuming there’s something there when there’s no formal agreement.  Emily sticks to her guns, and a good bit of chaos starts to erupt…

And then Hannah derails the whole thing, telling us that this Tribal Council will be a non-starter.  Despite Brandon’s pep talk with her earlier, she’s stating she just can’t take it, and her heart isn’t in it.  Hoping for a good sound-byte, Probst asks Emily if this changes her mind, and she says it does.  This is where the Hannah ire I mentioned earlier comes in, as she does say that Hannah doesn’t deserve to be there.  Still, the tone is a lot less condescending than it has been, though again, that could just be her reacting to the somber mood of the situation.  Everyone follows suit in saying they would honor Hannah’s wishes, and so Probst forgoes the vote, and Hannah is gone.  

I must admit, this ending of the episode is a bit of a mixed-bag.  Ultimately a quit rather than a proper vote is kind of a wet fart of an ending, and not at all befitting the start to a season.  Really, this ends up feeling more like the first half of a two-part episode, where we’re introduced to the characters, but don’t really get the dramatic climax we’d expect.  That said, in terms of character, it IS nice that the person leaving was probably the least-interesting of those up on the dock.  Certainly another episode of Emily grating on everyone will make for some fun tv that we haven’t seen in a while from this show.  Really, my only complaint about Hannah’s exit is that it’s ANOTHER therapist doing poorly in the game, and this one from my hometown!  There really isn’t going to be another Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) is there?

How one ranks this episode would depend on what one’s looking for in said episode.  Most elements, from the challenge to the misdirection to the strategizing, were just ok.  Where this one really excels is in the character department.  This cast hits you full in the face with personality, and we get legitimate conflict for the first time in a while.  On the whole, while maybe not the strongest as a standalone episode, it does promise good things to come, and I hope it delivers on that promise.  

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor 45” Cast Assessment.

Well, CBS certainly took their sweet time this year, and also certainly continue to be stingy with the info they give us.  Nevertheless, the cast is officially here, so it is time for me to go over each of them, and how I think they’ll do this season.  Yes, welcome back once again to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to.  

Before we get into the cast, one quick bit of business: Amongst the information that CBS refuses to give us is the tribe divisions. That said, as tribe division does have a major impact on one’s chances (but tell me again how luck plays no part on this show), I’ve found a reported leak of tribe divisions, and will be going based off of that.  I normally wouldn’t do so, but I’ve come to respect how important knowing said division is, and this leak does line up with what we saw in the preview, so I’ll act as though it is legit.  If, for some reason, it is inaccurate, my apologies.  That said, let’s dig into this new cast, starting with…

Austin Li Coon (26, Grad Student, Chicago, IL, Reba Tribe): When I first read Austin’s initial profile, I worried that he didn’t know much about the game.  He initially listed Owen Knight (“Survivor 43”) as the guy he’s most like, which made me a bit concerned.  After all, Owen would have been on his tv VERY recently when Austin was going out to film, so perhaps it was just recency bias.  But then he went on to list Wendell Holland (“Survivor Ghost Island”) and Jay Starrett (“Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”) as well, so I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt here.  That said, I do feel Austin missed his true closest “Survivor” companion: Woo of “Survivor Cagayan”.  And no, I’m not just saying that because the two look like they could be cousins.  Dude projects a very laid-back, surfer-bro attitude.  Someone who’s there more for the experience than to play the game super-strategically.  I mean, the dude literally put Naruto, the anime/manga ninja not known for his decision-making prowess, as his hero.  Put cruelly, Austin’s an idiot.  That said, he seems like a pretty likable, easygoing guy (he certainly has one of the most relatable pet peeves to date.  Banana-flavored candy is an insult to both bananas and candy), so he’s probably a useful idiot.  Expect him to be a number in an alliance just happy to go along for the ride, eliminated mid-to-late merge as a challenge threat.  He’ll be a bright spot on our screens until then, but not necessarily the smartest.  

Dee Valaderes (26, Entrepreneur, Miami, FL, Reba Tribe): So not only are we repeating tribe divisions and colors from “Survivor 43”, but we’re repeating contestants, too?  With Bruce from “Survivor 44″ coming back, I had to double-check that this wasn’t Justine Brennan of “Survivor 43”, aka “The Salesperson Cody Insisted Had To Go”.  But no, Dee is just a woman who gives off similar energy to her, and thus will probably meet the same fate.  Look, don’t get me wrong, there’s not a lot on paper that goes against Dee.  Most of her answers are inoffensive, and while I could nitpick things like her wanting to emulate players who made “BIG MOVEZ”, sometimes to their own detriment, that’s getting really nitpicky.  No, my call here is 100% vibes.  Some people just exude that “sales” energy, and while Dee technically isn’t a salesperson, she’s doubtless had to use similar skills in her career.  To her credit, Justine’s vibes in that particular area were low; she just got caught out by someone who was also a salesperson.  But only the blind could miss what Dee exudes here, and I bet most people are going to consider her a threat.  Luckily for Dee, I don’t see her tribe going to Tribal Council much, and there is one person on her tribe we’ll be getting to who’s a more obvious early target.  However, I still say Dee is out at the later pre-merge, maybe early merge if she’s lucky, just because her vibes are too obvious.  

Brandon Donlon (26, Content Producer, Sicklerville, NJ, Lolo Tribe): Doubtless those of you who saw the preview remember Brandon.  He’s the “My grandfather robbed a bank.” guy.  Unfortunately for him, in his bio he stated that getting a root canal was preferable to playing Settlers of Catan, and for this sin, he shall be the first boot.  

I kid, I kid.  Despite my newfound dislike of the guy for dissing one of my favorite board games, I actually like his odds decently well.  Dude knows the game well, and seems to have a good understanding of himself, with apt past player comparisons to the likes of Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) and Mike White (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”).  Add onto that a solid challenge-helping package on a tribe that’s going to have some easy early targets, and I don’t see a way Brandon doesn’t make the merge.  That said, he does give off that obvious “schemer” look in the way he carries himself and talks, but does have a charm about him.  Thus, I’m putting him as a late-merge boot, probably the penultimate episode, when his schemes finally catch up with him.  Think a similar fate to Omar on “Survivor 42”.  Good, certainly, but not good enough to lower his threat level and pull it all the way.  Look for him to be a top contender for a returnee season, though.  Dude does give a good confessional.  

Emily Flippen (28, Investment Analyst, Laurel, MD, Lolo Tribe): No, that is not a typo.  There are, in fact, people on this season who are not exactly 26 years old.  Emily is probably my personal favorite of the season, purely on the comparison to Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”) alone.  Kass remains one of my all-time favorite characters, and somewhat underrated as a strategist (yes, her social graces could leave much to be desired, but I could see where she was coming from, and she had a good BS detector.  Plus, her return on “Survivor Cambodia” did show us that she could work in that area as well), so I’m pleased to see she takes the comparison as a compliment.  That said, by numbers alone, probably not the comparison you want to be making, Emily.  Add onto that the admission that you’ll be making mistakes, and the first concerning pet peeve of the new cast (her pet peeve is basically “everything”), and while we’ll enjoy Emily as a character, I doubt she’ll stick around for too long for us to enjoy.  Again, there’s an earlier target on this tribe we haven’t met yet, so unless she costs her tribe a challenge, or they collapse into the disaster tribe of the season, she probably makes the “Earn the Merge” portion.  There, however, her personality will probably be too big to ignore, and she’ll be an easy consensus boot, especially if her tribe is large, and therefore easy to target.  She could be out earlier in the event she costs her tribe a challenge (she does admit she’s not the best athletically), but for now, this is unfortunately where I’m sticking with her placement.  Also, as an aside, can you believe it took US “Survivor” this long to cast an “Emily”?

Brandon “Brando” Meyer (23, Software Developer, Seattle, WA, Belo Tribe): Oh Brando.  I hate to repeat myself from the bio I gave Zach Wurtenberger (“Survivor 42”), but I wish you were on a different season or on a different tribe.  Dude is open, smart, friendly, surprisingly athletic, all qualities that should work in his favor.  Unfortunately for him, I predict there will be a disaster tribe this season, and he’s on it.  He does appear to be the brains of his tribe, so expect most challenge wins to come from puzzles completed by him.  But he can only take his tribe so far, and as they keep losing, places to hide become fewer and fewer.  Put another way, I think he’s smart enough to get in an alliance, but I don’t see him as the driving force.  All right for a few votes, but eventually, the alliance will be forced to eat each other pre-merge, and as such, the lieutenant position he would find himself in would be most vulnerable.  A late pre-merge boot, but a pre-merge boot nonetheless, and I am sorry for him for his unfortunate tribe placement.  With just a few better challenge competitors to start with, dude could run deep.  

Hannah Rose (33, Therapist, Baltimore, MD, Lolo Tribe): Before we get into discussing Hannah, I do have to call out “Entertainment Weekly”, here.  No one calls it “Baltimore City, Maryland”.  It’s just “Baltimore”.  “Balmer” if you want to do it in the Maryland accent.  Drop the “city”, it’s already implied.  

Anyway, onto Hannah yourself, she can basically be described, relating to “Survivor 44”, as “Carolyn-lite”.  Tattoed blonde therapist?  Check.  Manic energy?  Check.  Looking for authenticity?  Check.  Now, with how Carolyn did, you might think this would bode well for her.  But backing all this up, Carolyn at least had experience with online reality games to back up her claims of being able to read the room.  Hannah makes these same claims, but with nothing to back them up, and her REALLY feeling like a rehash of a character we’ve seen, if she loses a challenge, I see her going out.  Not to mention therapists who aren’t Denise Stapely (“Survivor Philippines”) tend not to do well in the game for some reason.  Add onto that another concerning set of pet peeves (loud chewers and narcissists), and I peg Hannah as a pre-merge boot.  Ironically, despite a memorable personality, she’ll be forgettable just because Carolyn was on so recently, and will kind of dominate the character space for a bit.  It’s a shame, too.  First player from Baltimore, my hometown, and the only one of this cast to admit a love for Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  I kind of like her a lot.  But unless her tribe outright NEVER loses (which I doubt), she’s out pre-merge.  

Bruce Perreault (47, Insurance Agent, Warwick, RI, BeloTribe): Here he is, Bruce from “Survivor 44”.  Probably the most heavily anticipated contestant of the season.  I’m glad he gets a chance to actually play the game this time, though I do question a bit the wisdom of having him be the ONLY returnee.  On the one hand, it wouldn’t be fair to have him pull a Caleb Reynolds on “Survivor Game Changers”, and be brought back with a bunch of other players, only to be thoroughly outclassed and have no real shot.  On the other hand, having him be the only returnee makes him stand out, and standing out early on is an easy way to get a target.  That said, this is the era of “Touchy, Feely Survivor”, where everyone wants to be nice, and given Bruce’s obvious overall experience, I doubt being a returnee will affect his placement too much.  

No, Bruce will be out early for OTHER reasons.  Partly it’s the “disaster tribe” theory I spoke of earlier, but it’s also an age thing.  I feel like I say this every season nowadays, but this season skews YOUNG.  I believe I read that the average age on this cast is 29.  Not a bunch of fresh-faced babes, but definitely outside Bruce’s target range, and when you consider that Bruce is one of only two people in his 40’s (and the only one in his 40’s on this tribe), there’s just going to be a connection issue.  Bruce’s story, and his willingness to go all-out in challenges, mean he probably isn’t the very first boot, but unless his tribe can win a lot, I just don’t see him connecting with this group, and he’s out somewhere in the early-to-mid pre-merge.  Sorry, man.  At least you’ll get to see Tribal Council this time.  

Janani “J. Maya” Krishnan-Jha (24, Singer, Los Angeles, CA, Reba Tribe): Hoo boy, it’s tough when they don’t specify whether someone is going by their given name or their stage name.  Since they made a point to mention it, I’ll stick with J. Maya for now, but I reserve the right to change it if that’s not how her chyron refers to her later on.  J. Maya certainly wins the award for the wordiest bio of the bunch, though weirdly it doesn’t feel like she says much of substance in it.  Sort of a commentary on influencer/internet sensation culture in general when you think about it.  Not to say that I dislike her; she definitely has her good moments.  One of the nice nuggets I got out of her bio was her respect for her mountaineering grandmother.  Not sure how much it’ll help her in the game of “Survivor”, but it’s nice to see, and a cool shout-out.  I know from expanded media that she also won a competition centered around making puns, which again, not really relevant to the game, but awesome nonetheless.  Apart from possible wordiness, there’s not really anything in her bio that goes against J. Maya, so I’ll give her a fairly average rating.  Barring her turning out to be a major challenge sink, expect her to be around until the merge at least, probably going out in the mid-to-late merge by trying to make a big move and getting called out for playing too hard, too fast.  If she makes puns throughout the game, however, I at least will enjoy the time she’s there.  

Drew Basile (23, Grad Student, Philadelphia, PA, Reba Tribe): Say what you will about Drew, but he knows himself very well.  Dude screams “nerd” with every orifice of his being, and owns it, openly comparing himself to the likes of Cochran (“Survivor South Pacific”) and Ryan Ulrich (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”).  The latter I would say is a fairly deep cut for “Survivor” lore (not to say that the season itself is forgotten, but conversation seems to center around Ben and Chrissy), so clearly this guy knows his stuff.  It’s most unfortunate for him that he’s coming hot on the heels of Carson Garrett (“Survivor 44”).  Now, I doubt that our other players this season have seen ALL of that season, so they may not have seen Carson’s talent with puzzles play out.  But they definitely saw some of that season (Carolyn gets referenced in at least one bio), and Carson’s 3-D printing shenanigans were referenced in the first episode.  Top that off with him wanting to play fast from the get-go per the season preview, and you’ve got a receipt for a super-fan ready to play their way right out of the game.  Drew is lucky he’s not on the disaster tribe, or he’d be out super early.  As it stands, I mark him an early-to-mid merge boot for overplaying his hand.  Again, probably a fun watch, but a flameout in the game almost certainly.  

Julie Alley (49, Estate Attorney, Brentwood, TN, Reba Tribe): I hope you like “Survivor Cambodia”, or at least the phrase “Second Chance”, because Julie will be saying it nonstop for the entirety of her screen time.  From said season being referenced repeatedly by her, to her talking about how she took a second chance in life by changing careers at a (relatively) older age, you can bet this is going to come up a lot.  Thankfully it won’t get old, but unfortunately for Julie, that’s because I have her pegged as the first boot.  There’s just too many factors working against her for me to say otherwise.  The oldest woman on a tribe is always going to have an uphill battle, especially in this day and age where tribe swaps are a rarity, and so challenge strength becomes more paramount as a factor.  This season will be particularly pronounced, since as mentioned, average age is 29.  The only person even really close to her age is Bruce, who’s on another tribe.  Almost makes you think she was put on so Bruce wasn’t the oldest player this season.  Sprinkle on the “Second Chance” rhetoric that I can see getting old real fast, and unless she’s not nearly as much of a challenge sink as she appears, or can form bonds better than she’s indicated with her bio, she’s toast.  I’m happy she’s successful in real life, but I don’t see that translating to “Survivor”.  

Jake O’Kane (26, Attorney, Boston, MA, Belo Tribe): Say what you will about this cast, but for the most part, there’s been some meaty stuff to talk about with them.  No truly generic characters in the bunch.  Jake is the exception to that.  Surprising, given that he had one of the more memorable lines from the season preview (about moving out of his grandma’s house if he wins), and maybe he works better on tv.  But man, his bio just went in one eye and out the other, leaving basically no impact.  He’s fine.  What he says is fine.  Pretty boilerplate stuff about his skills.  Inoffensive, but not leaving an impact.  Weirdly, BECAUSE he’s so inoffensive, and seems like he’ll do ok in challenges, I expect Jake to actually survive a good while despite being on the disaster tribe.  The strength of being kind of generic is that you can chameleon your way in with most groups.  If Jake has even the barest game smarts, and doesn’t sink the tribe in challenges, he should do fine.  I won’t put him as a winner pick proper, since I worry he lacks the killer instinct he needs to strike when the time is right, but he’s definitely in my unofficial “dark horse” slot for the season.  I see him making the finale, the everyone says “Oh, right, he’s still here and a threat”, and gets booted.  Decent placement, but could be better.  

Katurah Topps (35, Civil Rights Attorney, Brooklyn, NY, Belo Tribe): The other person I expect to survive the disaster tribe, Katurah edges out Jake to be one of my two proper winner picks for the season.  This is odd because there are a couple of red flags in her bio.  Her pet peeves are “slow walkers, slow talkers, and people who ooze privilege”, all traits she has at least a decent chance of encountering on the show.  She also talks about moving from a deprived upbringing to become the successful attorney she is today.  beautiful to read about, but I can see coming across as self-righteous or as a major jury threat.  Worth mentioning as well that she’s technically on the “older” end of the spectrum age-wise, but that’s more a mark of this season being young-skewed that her being “older”, and she seems to have the physical fitness to help counteract any negative age perceptions.  All that said, her experience in multiple worlds I think will give her an edge.  If she’s grown up in poverty, she likely knows life on the streets and how to navigate that.  But she can also move in the privileged attorney circle with at least some comfort.  Put those skills to use on a tribe in desperate need of command, and you’ve got a recipe for someone surviving the decimation of their own tribe.  Come the merge, she’s then in the enviable swing vote position, and based on her qualifications, she’s shrewd enough to ride that out all the way to the end.  Add in some good oration at Final Tribal, and you might as well just write her the check.  

Kaleb Gebrewold (29, Software Sales, Vancouver, BC, Lolo Tribe): Our Canadian representative for the season, and the first from British Columbia!  Dude just seems like a nice guy all around, and I did get a kick out of him using “golden retriever” as an adjective to describe himself.  Though I do then have to deduct points for him not technically naming a “Survivor” he is most like.  He starts out comparing himself to Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), then wisely retracts that as too high a bar to clear, but never gives an alternative name.  I still like the guy, though, but likability alone is not enough to win the game.  Even Ethan Zohn (“Survivor Africa”) had his cutthroat moments.  On top of that, Kaleb has the Canadian problem, not to mention the salesperson problem again.  Yes, I know Kane didn’t win on “Survivor 44”, but I don’t know if THESE players know that, and Maryanne and Erika are still going to be fresh in people’s minds.  Kaleb’s doing the best he can to present himself as a chill-non threat, and luckily for him he’s on a tribe I see rarely going to Tribal Council.  But such goodwill cannot last forever.  Expect Kaleb to be a consensus boot in the early-to-mid merge area, just for being too nice.  

Kellie Nalbandian (30, Critical Care Nurse, New York City, NY, Belo Tribe): Welp, add another one to the “Unorthodox Spelling of the Name ‘Kelly’” Pile!  Long-time readers may recall that I once had a hypothesis that contestants with the name “Kelly” (one of, if not the, most common name on US “Survivor”) could be successful if, and only if, their name was not spelled the traditional “Kelly” (Wiglesworth of “Survivor Borneo” being the exception, and I think that one only applied retroactively when she started being called by said last name).  As such, it would seem like Kellie would have a good shot at the game.  I would agree… If she were on a different tribe.  Unfortunately, Kellie is on what I predict to be the disaster tribe of the season, and that’s going to cost her.  She’s not a challenge sink, but she’s not exactly a challenge strength either, so there’s not much incentive to keep her around based on that.  She’s definitely tough enough for the game (if she can survive being a nurse during the height of COVID-19, I’m not going to question her toughness), but unless her tribe wins more than I expect, she just won’t have the chance.  Granted, she also has some concerning things in her bio.  Notably, her pet peeves are “inefficiency” and “know-it-alls”, both of which are concerning (and in regards to the latter, how’s she going to do RHAP exit interviews if she hates “know-it-alls”?).  Still, the poor tribe luck is the biggest factor in her downfall.  She’s not first out, even on her tribe, but eventually her number will just be up. I will say that if she CAN make the merge, she probably makes a deep run, but this time, I just don’t see the numbers working out for her.  

Nicholas “Sifu” Alsup (30, Gym Owner, O’Fallon, IL, Reba Tribe): Ok, I have to take umbrage with this nickname.  “Sifu”, as people probably know from either “Avatar: The Last Airbender” or “Kung Fu Panda”, is not a name, but a TITLE, basically meaning “master”.  Not really a proper name.  I’ll still refer to him as that, since that’s what he wants to be called, but know that I know your “name’s” origin, dude.  My weird little annoyance aside, Sifu is in a pretty good spot.  Likely the physical anchor of his tribe, he seems pretty level-headed and inoffensive.  Dude’s used to working with people in his gym, so probably some good interpersonal skills without being domineering.  Expect him to take a lead role in challenges, but be a bit more of a co-leader at camp.  While he does have the most concerning pet peeves outside of Emily’s with “liars and mean people”, his overall challenge strength probably keeps him safe until the merge.  If he can kind of fade into the background at that point, which I suspect he can based on how he describes his work, expect him to be a late-merge boot, once the other physical threats are gone.  Also, he likes “Dragon Ball Z”, and while that’s not the same as “Naruto”, it seems like he and Austin are cut from similar cloth that way, so I expect them to get along swimmingly.  

Kendra McQuarrie (31, Bartender, Steamboat Springs, CO, Belo Tribe): Rounding out our disaster tribe is the person I’d say is most likely to go once they lose a challenge.  On a tribe of overall pretty, for want of a better word, “normal” people, Kendra stands out as “the crazy one”.  She openly compares herself to Carolyn, and some might say that bodes well, but I maintain that Carolyn was an exception, rather than a rule.  Most of the time, playing that openly and out there and off-the-wall is only going to stick your neck out for elimination.  I’d also peg Kendra as the most likely to cost the tribe a challenge, based on overall physicality, another mark against her.  Add onto this she’s another one super-excited by the adventure.  Not a problem in and of itself, but again, the extra enthusiasm makes her stick out to dangerous levels.  Also, did you know she completed the “Camino de Santiago”?  Because she did!  And she mentions it!  Repeatedly!  It’s the same problem as Julie and “Second Chances”, though admittedly on a somewhat smaller scale.  Bigger tribes, or a tribe that avoids Tribal Council, might give Kendra just enough wiggle room to make the merge, but I don’t think she has either.  Thus, for standing out too much, Kendra is probably a pre-merge boot.  

Sean Edwards (35, School Principal, Provo-Orem, UT, Lolo Tribe): As the last man on the cast we have yet to talk about, you can expect that he’s my second winner pick of the season.  And again, a bit of a controversial one.  Fairly concerning pet peeve there with “arrogant people”.  Because “Survivor” has never produced one of those.  Also, while he isn’t “old”, he’s on the older end for THIS cast, as I’ve mentioned before.  That said, being a principal means both dealing with (usually quite stressed) adults, as well as people from a VERY different age demographic as yourself.  What I’m saying is that if anyone on this cast can bridge the age gap and be a uniter, Sean is the guy.  Dude exudes charm with that smile, and he’s one of the rare breed of people who admit he needs someone to cover his blind spots in an alliance.  An undervalued quality, and from this, I gather some good game smarts.  He’s not the most athletic, but again, not a sink, and so long as his tribe does fairly well in challenges (as I predict they well), I expect to see Sean in the finals.  

Sabiyah Broderick (28, Truck Driver, Jacksonville, NC, Lolo Tribe): To round out the cast as a whole, we have Sabiyah.  Are you happy now, internet complainers?  You got someone who didn’t get a college education on again!  Don’t get used to her though, as the fact that she’s about the ONLY person on the cast like this is a problem for her.  Say it with me now, “This makes her stand out, and that’s a bad thing.”  The fact that she seems like she’ll be good in challenges, and I don’t see her tribe spending much time at Tribal Council probably saves her during the pre-merge, but I expect her to be an early-to-mid merge boot, just for personality clashes.  She also doesn’t strike me as the type to let go the things that bother her, and when those things include “laziness”, again something very common on “Survivor”?  She’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t give Sabiyah a particularly long shelf-life.  

Oddly, that about does it.  Pretty solid cast overall, but not one that’s knocking my socks off.  I had stuff to say about pretty much everybody, which is encouraging, but again, maybe these people come off better on paper than they do on camera.  Or vice-versa, we’ll have to see.  And you can see, when we return with the blog following the premiere!  See you then!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.