Idol Speculation: “Survivor 44” Finale: Host with the Too Much

Look, I’ve been pretty clear on my stance on Probst in the past.  I think he is terrible as executive producer, and have criticized his decisions relentlessly.  But when it comes to the argument that he’s become a bad host, whether because he talks too much during challenges, or forces metaphors, or because he plays up the schmaltzy moments too much, I tend to disagree.  The man has his flaws as a host, certainly; no host is perfect.  When he’s on, however, he’s ON, lending dignity and gravitas that the show needs at vital moments.  What few excesses he does have tend to really be minor annoyances rather than any overall hosting problem.  Thus, when people have called for him to resign and let someone else take over, I tend to poo-poo the suggestion.  

After tonight, I’m open to it.  

Jumping ahead a bit, this is not one of the overall great finales.  Precious little happens, and while there’s no particularly BAD moments, there’s nothing that stands out as much either.  Still a solid product I’m glad I watched, but not one I’ll be chomping at the bit to go back to anytime soon.  Yet, with rare exception, the true NEGATIVES of this episode all came from Probst, and if your presences is a net negative, then yeah, replacing you is a valid consideration.  Let’s get into why, shall we?

Having realized that the “new camp” thing adds exactly zero drama, especially when it’s so anticipated the cast brings their entire camp with them, we don’t even try and play it up as a big thing.  Instead, we get everyone making their cases as to why they should win.  Heidi brings up being the last surviving Soka member, finding and playing an idol, and just in general outliving her allies.  All fair points.  I still say she has no chance, but that’s more due to the strength of other’s games making hers look relatively weak in comparison than her having zero argument here.  Yam Yam talks about his social bonds.  Carson notes how he’s been a driving force behind maneuvering Tika to the end game.  Admittedly Lauren and Carolyn don’t get as much of an argument here, the former talking about her determination in being the last surviving Ratu, and the latter talking about her growth and her emotions, but it’s something at least.  They may not make the argument directly, but you can see how it would be parlayed as such.  

In another nice change, there’s no puzzle leading to a challenge advantage this time.  Then again, perhaps that’s because they’ve hidden another idol for these people to go find instead.  Because heaven forbid we have a vote with no idol!  We get the usual hunting montage, but with no find.  We do however, get a lot of mileage out of the “Ironic confessional talking about idol hunting interposed over footage of said contestant being right next to the idol”.  That’s largely because this idol is particularly well-hidden.  The wrappings are not particularly flashy, and the tree it’s hidden in is not particularly significant-looking.  It’s also tied to a branch, forcing people to look up, rather than in a nook or knot-hole.  Point being, I’m not gonna give these players too much flak for missing this one.  Also, it may have taken the entire damn season, but these people have FINALLY learned to poke in with a stick first when idol hunting.  Better late than never, I guess.

Lauren, however, is not just hoping for an idol to keep her safe.  She determines that the Tika 3 need to be broken up, and so goes about building up how much of a threat Carson is, an argument both Yam Yam and Carolyn seem to buy.  Good for her.  

We come to our challenge, and it’s one that I’m actually a little excited for this time.  It’s your standard obstacle course leading into a puzzle, but the structure they have to climb through for the first let is actually fairly intricate, even requiring backtracking at times.  Granted, by the standards of older seasons it’s nothing impressive, but given that the new era can be described as “The Place Where Challenge Grandeur and Originality Go To Die”, I’ll take what I can get.  

While not a thing that particularly annoys me, I will say Probst was a bit nice to Carolyn in this challenge.  He tells her she’s still in it, despite basically everyone else being a leg ahead of her.  Granted, she does get to the puzzle in the end, so this is not as egregious as other instances of false Probst-hope, but still, a tad on the optimistic side.  Carson, who did well in pretty much all the legs, ends up winning, thereby making all that buildup to a possible Tika breakup entirely pointless.  

Carson also gets to go to “The Sanctuary” for spaghetti and various forms of cake.  Here is where we learn that Carson is the only non-heathen amongst the group, as the only one who correctly identifies chocolate cake as being superior to carrot cake.  Carson also gets to take one person with him, and chooses Yam Yam, which I really can’t fault.  He’s a good ally, and good person to strategize with.  Plus, if there’s any need to hide that he and Yam Yam are tight at this point (which I would say there isn’t, but hey, good to cover your bases), Carson can always fall back on “He’s received the fewest rewards this season” excuse.  

Of course, food is not the only order of business at “The Sanctuary”.  Carson winning immunity might have made the breakup of the Tika 3 unlikely, but still something to be considered.  Carson wants them to hold strong, and fears the narrative building around Lauren if she’s allowed to stay in.  Privately, Carson is also worried that breaking up the Tika 3 makes him more vulnerable, which is fair.  Yam Yam, on the other hand, is still on the “Carolyn’s a threat” train, and thinks they should get her out as a result.  Interestingly, both take stances on Carolyn that mirror the two perspectives of her from the fandom as a whole.  Carson notes that, while she did find an idol, her use of it, when looked at in a vacuum, didn’t matter.  She comes across as emotional and untethered; not the sort of person you vote for to win.   Yam Yam notes that because of how she comes across, the fact that she even kept a secret for so long comes across as impressive, and she can argue her game well.  Only time will tell which narrative the jury favors, but it’s interesting how close that conversation works.  

For Lauren, obviously, this outcome is about the worst for her.  Let it not be said she rolls over and dies, however.  Naturally, with herself, Carolyn, and Heidi left alone at camp, they talk strategy.  None of them want to go home, and Carson’s immune, so Yam Yam is naturally the name put out there.  Carolyn would seem to be the most reluctant, but Lauren rightly spills the beans on his throwing out Carolyn’s name.  Carolyn is, naturally, now rather mistrustful and upset with Yam Yam, something that shows on her face and body language when he returns from reward.  For all that Yam Yam has good emotional and interpersonal intelligence, he really seemed to initially misread the room on his return.  Then again, his asking “Are you mad at me?” to the woman whose body language clearly conveys just that was hilarious, and he does quickly pick up what happened, so I’ll let it slide.  

Carson and Yam Yam confer.  Carson’s not a fan of Tika splitting up just yet, but if it does, it seems he’d prefer Yam Yam stay over Carolyn.  Thus, Yam Yam goes and tries to pitch that Carson’s on his side to vote out Carolyn.  Lauren and Heidi seem receptive, but aren’t the most enthused, mostly due to mistrust.  They admit they’d prefer that Tika break themselves up, but don’t believe Carson would actually go for it.  Yam Yam does float out the possibility of voting for Heidi, but this is quickly dismissed, thereby hopefully preventing her from actually going, and me having to give the FINALE of a season the disgrace of an “Ethan Zohn Downside”.  

In the debate of Carolyn, Yam Yam, or Lauren, that’s the descending order I would say to get rid of them in.  Carolyn is established to be good at fire, and is building a narrative of how her perception let her sneak through.  Dangerous in the end.  Yam Yam has been good socially, more so than Lauren, who never really had power.  Granted, her narrative of surviving despite an early target is a threat, but Yam Yam had the same target several times in the early merge area, so I still give him the slight edge.  Really, the only advantages to going Lauren over Yam Yam are that keeping the Tika 3 intact is a shield for Carson (which is only an upside for Carson), and Lauren’s challenge prowess.  I wouldn’t say any of these is a terrible decision, but that would be my rankings.  And hey, we get good mystery between all three, helped along by Lauren going on another idol hunt before we head off to Tribal Council.  

Sorry, I misspoke.  I should rather say we HAD good mystery, until the Tribal Council itself started up.  Lauren becomes incredibly emotional about her time in the game, and all the obstacles she’s overcome.  One does not get this dramatic unless they’re gone and they know if.  Either Lauren is truly dead in the water, or she’s a terrible actor.  

Now, on its own, this could be a good emotional moment.  A woman who fought so hard, pushed to brink by circumstances beyond her control.  It’s good stuff, and for all my jokes about her “terrible acting”, if it’s not acting, it’s raw and compelling.  Too bad Probst has to make it a MOMENT!  Rather than just letting the scene play out, maybe ask a few probing questions to help facility more from Lauren, Probst has to talk about how “This is what ‘Survivor’ is all about!”, and how much it means to Lauren to be here, rather than letting her do it herself.  It’s like Probst doesn’t trust the cast to narrate their own season, and it’s one of my major gripes with him tonight.  The moment was fine without you, Probst.  Add yourself when needed, but you were NOT needed, except to read the votes, at this Tribal Council.  

About the only point in this Tribal Council’s favor is how the editing tricks do make Lauren’s idol bluff plausible.  Compared to, say, Max’s joke on “Survivor Worlds Apart”, given how flashback idols are now a “thing”, and the sort of editing tricks the new era brings, we entirely buy that Lauren might have found an idol without us seeing it.  It’s the one time the whole Tribal Council I thought there was any chance Lauren might not go.  

Sadly for Lauren, she does not, though she does give the remaining four a good heart attack on her way out by doing so, which I have to give some respect to.  That said, I’m not too displeased to see Lauren go here.  She was fine for what she was as a tv character, but didn’t stand out much, either as a strategist or as a visual spectacle, compared to the remaining players.  Her hair was always on point, though.  Still, if that’s the best I can say about you?  Yeah, I’d rather let the more exciting people go to finals.  

Guess nothing interesting happened at camp, as we move directly on to our immunity challenge.  Let’s see, what do we have here?  Oh, it’s Simmotion again.  Ok, time to break out “Standard Matt Complaint #12”.  It reads: “This challenge is fine, but should never be the Final Immunity Challenge.  It lacks the grandeur needed, and is not physically demanding enough.  Bring back Hand on a Hard Idol.”  

We all got that?  Good, moving on.  

Unsurprisingly, Carolyn is out first in the challenge that requires “focus”, though Yam Yam being out second is a bit of a surprise.  He was shown taking the most care in when he dropped in extra balls, and somehow, this challenge seemed like it would fit his skill set, kind of like how the water torture one was a few episodes back.  But now, it’s a showdown between Carson and Heidi, with Heidi ultimately taking the victory, her first individual win of the season.  A big accomplishment for her, only to be undercut by her telling Probst IMMEDIATELY that she’s considering putting herself in fire.  

Look, it’s not that I don’t understand where Heidi is coming from.  As she notes, she doesn’t have a ton of accomplishments.  I even brought up myself that her resume is not as strong as those remaining.  A victory in fire is a big accomplishment.  But a victory in immunity should be bigger.  Not only did you beat four people instead of one, but you didn’t do it by making yourself vulnerable.  I know the show is pushing the narrative of “You need to take risks to win.” since it makes for better tv, but call me crazy, I find more impressive the person who MINIMIZED their risks rather than actively sought them out.  When Erik gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When Brandon Hantz gave up immunity, we lambasted it as a bad move.  When the entire Manono Tribe gave up immunity on “Survivor One World”, we lambasted it as a bad move.  So why not here?

I was never a big fan of forced Final Four Fire Making to begin with, but as the seasons have gone on, I’ve come to loathe it with every fibre of my being, and it’s mostly to do with the culture that’s grown up around it.  This idea that, if you win immunity, you HAVE to put yourself in fire making to have a shot.  That you have to ACTIVELY take yourself out of safety to be considered as a worthy winner.  That a move that, in a vacuum, is objectively bad, is somehow the thing you HAVE to do.  It’s incentivizing bad gameplay, and it’s not what I want to see.  

About the only time I can see such a move making sense is if the person you want out is good at fire making, and ONLY you have a shot at beating them.  And even then, I think it’s still a move that’s debatable at best, as perceived skill at fire making is subjective.  If you aren’t the best at fire, don’t put yourself in fire if you won immunity.  You still maneuvered the pieces where you want them.  That should be respected just as much, if not more, as winning in fire.  But no, as the show presents it, it isn’t, and I am pissed.  I am tired of people like Natalie on “Survivor Winners at War”, or Cassidy last season, being lambasted by the jury for NOT doing so, despite it being actively bad for their games to do so.  Granted, both had other reasons they shouldn’t have won (Natalie for being voted out first and only saved due to the Edge of Extinction, another twist I hate; Cassidy for burning too many jury bridges late in the game), but instead of these reasons, we get the fire-making problem trotted out, and frankly, I’m sick of it.  

Now, there is one major difference between Heidi and some of the examples I’ve provided.  Namely, Heidi is actually SHOWN to be good at fire.  Hell, in a nice bit of foreshadowing, it’s literally the first thing we saw her doing all season.  But it’s not like other people are slouches either.  Carolyn and Yam Yam are both shown to be decent at it as well.  Only Carson, the guy Heidi most wants out, is shown to be actively bad at it, in which case, good.  Let someone else take the risk, and you still get the outcome you want.  You maneuvered the pieces to the outcome you desired.  How is that any less respectable, or less good gameplay, than putting yourself in fire?

Also, I can only conclude that Carson’s 3-D printed fire does not translate to the island.  I kid, I kid.  Carson did indeed practice this, but the old-fashioned way, and again, can’t really fault him in that, even if it’s not bearing fruit here.  

For all my griping, I will say this does lead to ONE good scene.  Yam Yam, seeing Carson struggle, gives him tips on how to make fire.  This is a move that, as Yam Yam admits, might not be the best, since he could very well be put against Carson in fire, and be giving tips to the guy he loses to.  Once again, however, Yam Yam’s heart outweighs his logic, and helps anyway, just as a kind human being.  The pair bond, there’s a lot of hugs and nice words.  It’s a powerful moment, probably the stand-out one of the episode.  

Hey, Probst?  Notice how that moment DIDN’T need you commenting on how touching it was, and in fact stood up all the better without it?  Take notes.  

Our Tribal Council is really just an excuse for Heidi to reveal who’s going into fire, and to her credit, she is showy about it.  She first reveals that Carolyn is NOT going into fire, to which Carolyn is visibly relieved.  And, for all my complaints about Probst this episode, I will say this is one moment where he hits it perfectly in terms of hosting.  He does probe Carolyn with a few questions to get her to go more deeply into what she’s feeling, but doesn’t try to force the moment to be more than it is.  It’s good stuff, and if he goes back to more of this hosting style, I will retract my statement at the top of this blog.  

To no one’s surprise, Heidi reveals that Carson will be in fire, before doing the dumb and going in herself.  For all my complaints about this move in a vacuum, however, it’s hard to argue with the results.  Not only does Heidi decisively win against Carson, she even cracks Gabler’s record from last season, something Probst is quick to note.  Good for her on that front.  I still say it’s an unnecessary move, and not one that’s truly “smart”, but it cannot be denied that Heidi has an unassailable victory after this.  

Our finalists repeat their arguments for why they should win during the day 26 breakfast.  It’s mostly stuff we’ve heard before.  Heidi’s being the last Soka standing/taking out Carson, Yam Yam’s social game, Carolyn playing up the perception of herself to maneuver in the shadows.  That said, in another nice bookend to the season, Carolyn talks to the same producer she did to open the season, and again, we hear from him.  That’s a fun note to go off to Tribal Council on.  

The lack of individual jury questions has really made modern Final Tribal Councils all blend together, and this one is largely no different.  Carson’s expressions on the jury, particularly his indicating to Carolyn what the jury wanted to hear, are pretty much gold, but that’s about the only thing of note.  The jury is nice, but pretty toothless.  Nor do the arguments from our finalists really bear much mention.  All actually do a pretty good job arguing their case, using the tools and viewpoints we’ve seen before.  Heidi strongly advocates for herself, Yam Yam turns on the charm, and Carolyn brings up the emotion/gameplay divide, and articulates how she use her perception by others to her advantage.  Really, the worst gaffe any of them has is Yam Yam at one point saying “Emotions.  I have them.”, and even this gets played off as a joke.  

No, the real thing of note at this Tribal Council is, once again, Probst, who WAY oversteps his bounds.  When the new jury format was first rolled out on “Survivor Game Changers”, one of my main complaints was how Probst was too involved in the discussion, basically giving the criteria for what the jury should discuss in regards to a winner.  Felt too much like production interference in the jury’s decision making.  As time has gone on, Probst has backed of majorly in this area, limiting himself to ensuring the discussion goes on at a good pace, at most giving extremely broad categories the jury can define how they want.  Here, while he didn’t go full “Game Changers”, it did feel like he was more involved in what went into the categories than he did in recent seasons, and again brings up the stink of production having too much influence on the jury.  

But oh no, this is not Probst’s worst sin on the night.  No, that comes when Carolyn breaks down a bit when discussion turns to challenge performance, and she talks about how she kind of failed, since, you know, challenge performance was a weakness.  This COULD have been a gaffe, but Probst instead has to give us the perspective that her coming out and trying mean that she succeeded, rather than failed.  

Probst.  Buddy.  I like you.  I even respect a lot of your talents.  We have our disagreements, but overall, I think you’re a pretty cool dude.  So understand, it comes from my love of the show and the game, not anything against you personally, when I say the following:  

SHUT UP!  FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, THIS IS THE JURY’S TIME TO SPEAK, NOT YOURS!  THAT PERSPECTIVE YOU BRING IS VALID, BUT IT IS NOT YOUR TIME TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON THE PROCEEDINGS.  IF THE JURY AGRESS WITH YOU, GREAT!  LET THEM BRING IT UP!  IF THEY DON’T, THEN IT IS NOT YOUR PLACE TO DO SO!  IN INJECTING YOURSELF WHERE YOU DON’T NEED TO BE, YOU RUIN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A SOLID MOMENT FOR YOUR SEASON, AND COMPROMISE THE INTEGRITY OF THE GAME YOU CLAIM TO LOVE.  IF THERE IS TRULY ANY IOTA OF RESPECT FOR THE GAME, OR THE ART OF THE SHOW, LEFT WITHIN YOU, THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN!  

Hoo, I feel better now.  Anyway, rant done, it’s all downhill from here.  We get yet another 7-1-0 vote, our fourth in a row.  Not sure what it is about the new era that brings that particular voting combination out, but it’s definitely progressed to the point of “pattern” by now.  Somewhat to my surprise, our victor is Yam Yam.  I’d have given Carolyn the best odds, given how well she articulated weaponizing the perception of herself, but she didn’t even make second.  Heidi earns the vote of her ally Danny, which I can understand.  Guess he respected her using him as a shield.  

And this is not to take away from Yam Yam’s win.  His social game was better shown than many, and he did make a very compelling argument about how he read the emotions of others to inform his game.  Not who I would have voted for our of the three, but given how late Heidi’s game picked up, and I guess how baked-in the early perceptions of Carolyn were, I can understand why things ended up the way they did.  Kudos to him; a win well-earned.  

I will say this: This season made the first compelling argument for the immediate after-show, rather than the live reunions of the past.  We mostly hit the highlights of the season one would expect (talking to our finalists, Matt and Frannie, all the early medical issues, etc.), and it’s all pretty standard in general.  But, not willing to let that plot point go un-exploited, Probst and production reveal that Jaime’s idol was a fake planted by Matthew, of course after going through all the steps and drama said idol caused.  Everyone’s reactions are delightfully raw and over-the-top; something you wouldn’t get at a live reunion where everyone knew already.  Now, does this mean I’m done with wanting live reunions back?  Of course not!  There’s ways you could have kept that live reaction in there even in the old format.  Say, film Jaime watching the episode where she finds the idol for the first time, then playing that.  Plus, then you could have Matthew himself talk about that play, rather than just name-dropping him and giving him a well-deserved toast.  So help me, I want to hear from the pre-jury, dammit.  

Our preview for “Survivor 45” is pretty standard.  Cast looks ok.  Not much to write home about.  The dude talking about his great-grandfather robbing the bank seems cool.  The young guy living with his grandmother might make for some fun confessionals.  But nothing that gets me hyped for the season.  Nothing that warns me off of it either, but maybe a bit sub-par compared to recent previews.  That said, I LOVE the logo for the season.  Colorful, but simple in design.  It stands out without being too busy.  Plus, it has an ominous air about it, mostly due to the logo featuring Osten’s nemesis from “Survivor Pearl Islands”, Pelican Pete.  

Before we get into looking back over my pre-season predictions, and seeing how accurate they were, I do want to touch briefly on the predictions I made in the last blog.  This is mostly because, contrary to what some might say, I think I was pretty spot on.  Nearly everything proceeded as I had foreseen it.  Really, there were only two things one could say I “missed”.  Heidi won final immunity, rather than my prediction of Yam Yam.  That said, I still kind of count this given that Heidi went into fire anyway, and that was more overall was the point I was trying to make.  Then I called Carolyn winning this final three, and… Yeah, ok, I take the loss on that one.  I was completely off on how the jury would see things.  Still, one inaccuracy in an otherwise pretty spot-on description?  I’ll take it.  Now, on to the individual predictions, and how they held up.  

Claire-Wrong.  In my defense, I DID say she could be vulnerable if her tribe went to early Tribal Councils.  I just didn’t think they would do so.  

Matt-Wrong, just straight up.  I didn’t overestimate his game sense TOO much, but regardless, he still hung on longer than expected.  

Carolyn-Wrong.  Far more game sense than I had anticipated.  

Lauren-Hung on a bit longer than expected, but I think I nailed how she would play the game overall.  

Danny-I could just copy and paste Lauren’s description.  I was maybe a bit too down on his game sense, but still fairly close overall.  Dude just stuck around slightly longer than expected.  

Heidi-Wrong.  Much quieter, and as a result much longer-lived, than I anticipated.  

Carson-Wrong.  Much better socially, and thus had a longer time in the game, than I anticipated.  

Maddy-Wrong, though for once on this list, someone I overestimated rather than underestimated.  

Bruce-Hard to say whether I nailed his gameplay or not, since we never really got to see it, but I did say he could be a medevac, so I’ll give myself this one.  Lord knows I need all the wins I can get this season.  

Sarah-Wrong, though in my defense, I couldn’t have predicted quite how much her tribe would implode.  

Matthew-I probably undersold his gameplay, but pretty much nailed his time in the game, and again, gave him as a medevac possibility.  I’ll give myself this one.  

Helen-Wrong.  Much worse at managing her threat level than I thought, and out early because of it.  

Josh-Not as wrong as some others, but shorter-lived and less good socially than I had thought.  

Jaime-Wrong on time in the game, but I would say dead on for personality.  

Kane-Wrong.  Just longer lived in general than I thought.  

Frannie-Apart from being an unexpected individual challenge beast, I’d say I got Frannie pretty well in my description.  

Brandon-Maybe a little underestimated, but I’ll call this one “right” for me.  

Yam Yam-In a season where my predictions range from “Kind of similar to how it went, if you squint” to “Completely, 100% off-base”, I’m pleased to say this is my one prediction that was absolutely right.  Weird how my early bet was actually better than AFTER I started watching the season.  

Speaking of, there’s been a lot of praise for this season, and rightly so.  A good mix of character and strategy, generally likable people throughout, and a post-merge relatively free of twists are all good selling points.  Alongside a strong aesthetic theme, this is definitely a good season.  A step up from “Survivor 43” in my opinion.  That said, I’d stop short of calling it “great”, as some are already doing.  This is definitely a season with more positive than negative about it, but there’s a couple of things that stop it from going that far for me.  A few, admittedly, are just nitpicks and/or extremely subjective points.  More gross-out humor than some other seasons.  My personal favorites going out pre-merge, leaving me with a back half that, while I didn’t DISLIKE anyone there, left me with no one I was particularly strongly rooting for.  

However, there are two big points that keep this out of the “Great” category for me.  One is that, while I appreciated the relatively twist-free post-merge, the slog between the mergeatory and probably the Frannie boot was confusing and frustrating.  Take the lesson, show: No major twists post-merge period.  The other, and probably the biggest issue, is predictability.  Individual episodes did ok with mystery, but the narrative made it pretty clear early on, or at least once we got down to three original Tika left, that one of them was going to win.  Not knowing exactly WHO, and those three playing a masterful game that was well-shown keep it out of the “bad” category, but it’s missing the uncertainty I feel it needed to be truly “Great”.  Hardly a bad season, though.  

Now we enter the long off-season, but don’t think you won’t be hearing from me at all!  Keep an eye out for more of the off-season content I so enjoy bringing.  More “‘Survivor’ What-Ifs?” are certainly on the horizon, and if the mood strikes, perhaps something more…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.