Tag Archives: brains vs. brawn vs. beauty

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Finale: All Steak and No Sizzle

15 Dec

Let it never be said that whining about “Survivor” on the internet got you nothing. As this finale clearly demonstrated, the editors have heard our complaints about the transparency of the victor, and so did a DAMN fine job of hiding the true victor from us. Hell, given who the final three end up being, I’d actually predicted CORRECTLY as of last episode, but went back on that when I calculated potential votes. THAT’S how good that misdirection was!

Want more evidence? There’s been complaints, even in this season, that saying that someone is definitely going means they’re safe. And yes, even in this episode, that’s sometimes the case. But, by and large, the cut and dried decisions go down exactly as planned. And that’s surprising! They’re fooling us by not fooling us. That is the level of meta that we have reached, but this is also taking away from the episode, and there’s a lot to cover.

Our finale kicks off to a good start with Bret in fine form about how STUPID it was to take out Sunday over David, comparing it to SEAL Team Six breaking into Osama Bin Laden’s compound, having him at gunpoint, and then giving up and going out for coffee. Incredibly insensitive? Perhaps, but it’s hilarious as all get out. Bret does get down to questioning Hannah about her motivations, and Hannah’s response is “It wasn’t the right time.” I guess I can see how that would make logical sense, but I have to ask, Hannah, when IS the right time? I’m all for waiting to make moves until the optimal time, but you’re running out of times to do it. David is THE major threat in this game, apart from Jay. One of those two needed to go. Better sooner than later.

Speaking of David, at this point his victory is all but assured. With this vote, it’s clear that he, Ken, and Hannah have an ironclad final three deal, so the only hope would be for Jay, Adam, and Bret to band together and force a tie. And given how much of a threat Jay is, that’s not happening. David’s already working on his victory speech (hell, we get to hear it a bit later in the episode), and picking a winner to emulate. In a somewhat bizarre choice, he chooses to go with Bob Crowley of “Survivor Gabon”. An underrated winner, in my opinion, but also one who’s not exactly well-remembered. No, David has been stealing bits and bobs from around camp and challenges, and has crafted himself a fake idol. And, I have to admit, it looks pretty good. At least in the dark. Of course, realizing that he is still at a minimum tied for biggest threat left in the game, David keeps the idol for himself to use as a bluff, since that would be the smart thing to do, and David usually does the smart thing.

But no, instead he hides it for someone else to play. I fail to see how this is any way helps David other than adding a bit of hilarity. I suppose David has a valid point of stopping people looking for idols, but as David himself admits, he feels there are no idols left. So, what are they in danger of finding? But even David brings out some smartness from stupidity, painting a little logo on a rock to fool people into looking there. He’s taking his knowledge of how the season works and is using it to his advantage. Mind you, given that all the idols this season have looked the same, it also means that someone should be ABLE to recognize a fake, but still, good detail.

Speaking of advantages, it’s time to FINALLY find out what all that buildup to the legacy advantage was. It’s… very underwhelming, basically just a one-time use hidden immunity idol. I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’s GREAT to have, and had Ken won immunity, it might have really come into play, as Ken could then give away immunity with no real risk to himself. But he didn’t, so it’s just kind of there. Can this twist work if tried again? Yeah, possibly. I think the main thing that holds it back is the guarantee that it will be there on Day 36. Look, one extra immunity, while a nice wrinkle, does not add much on its own. But how might it change how the game is played, how HARD people play, if they knew that had a big advantage coming late in the game. Or, might they use it as leverage, and pass it on to someone as a reward for loyalty? Those are intriguing possibilities. Now, I know why “Survivor” wouldn’t do that. You have a twist, you want it to come into play. But take this gamble, and the results would be worth it, I say.

Remember how I said someone would have to be an IDIOT to fall for David’s fake idol. Why hello, Jay! Yes, for all that the season has tried its damnedest to make us believe that Jay is not a COMPLETE moron, and while he certainly stacks up better than Taylor in the realm of intelligence, this guy is completely taken in by the ruse. And, for added hilarity, David is on-hand to silently giggle at the whole thing. Oh, and David’s fake idol is revealed to be even more fake, when we see that it is primarily painted pink. Simple facts: Idols do not come in pink. And no, the Bayon idol from “Survivor Cambodia” doesn’t count. Only the string on that one was pink.

We get to our first challenge, which is a pretty standard obstacle course. Nothing we haven’t really seen before, though I do like the fact that, as the puzzle is a hanging bat, it basically has to be assembled upside-down, so that’s pretty cool. And an obstacle course is pretty standard challenge fare for this point in the game, so I’ll give it a slight pass, but you’d better come up with better challenges later, show!

In case the “Jay is a goober.” edit hadn’t become clear with the fake idol debacle, it’s made clear at this challenge. With one element of the challenge being a combination lock, players are given a flap to throw over their lock to prevent cheating. But Jay, in his haste to move on, forgets, and naturally everyone goes over and copies his answer, blowing his lead. Jay still manages to do well on his puzzle, but in the end, David comes back to beat him.

Jay doesn’t get to leave empty handed, though. This was a reward challenge as well, for a steak dinner. Remember how I said the legacy advantage would never be used the way I suggested, because they want to be sure it stays in the game? Well, the same is true with the reward steal. I’m sure the producers wanted to throw in ONE MORE REWARD just to get the drama from it. And sure enough, Jay bites, stealing David’s steak dinner. In fairness to Jay, he actually plays things really well here. For one thing, despite my earlier comments, it’s likely that there won’t be any more rewards, so it’s now or never, and as Jay is still a target, he needs to win immunity (remember, he thinks he’s safe thanks to his fake idol) next, and the food could really help with that. For another, with so few people left, there’s fewer people to piss off by stealing a reward. And Jay even minimizes the damage there by taking David on reward with him, as well as Adam, both of which I’d say are the smart choices. Court the power players, make them feel comfortable, and you’ve got a better shot at making it far.

Sure enough, Jay gives us a pretty smart pitch all things considered: Keep him around as a shield. When the point is brought up about how they get to the end if he wins immunity, Jay insists he’ll take Adam and David no question. Which I’m sure he would. Because he would still win. That, right there, is the point in the argument that things get lost in: are you playing to get to the end, or are you playing to win? If you’re just trying to get to the end, Jay’s play is great. But Adam and David are not idiots. Both want to win, and both can’t do it with Jay in the game.

It will all come to nothing, though. Goober edit aside, Jay’s exit has been built up too much, and with Bret complaining about “crazy people” in this game, his exit is pretty much assured. Especially as David is completely on board, and Hannah willing to consider if Adam flips.

I don’t mean to diss this first Tribal Council. It’s actually a lot of fun, between the caged strategy and Bret’s snark (seriously, this guy is an actual sound-byte generator). But we all know the real story is Jay and the fake idol. The goober edit must be complete. Sure enough, Jay gets nervous, plays it, and Probst, after declaring it a “work of art” throws it in the fire. Ok, I take back my comments about the pointless move. It was all worth it for the look on Jay’s face.

Ultimately, goober edit wins out, and Jay goes home. As I say, the smart move for everyone left, and I’m overall not sorry to see Jay go. He made a fun rival to the major alliance, and his weird relationship with Adam was a good watch at times, but he’d served his purpose by this point. Plus, the goober edit demanded it. Guy leaves with a lot of class, though.

Ah, but there is one more point of note at this Tribal Council: Ken plays his legacy advantage, which he had kept hidden from everyone else. Now, why might he keep it hidden, despite no one really being able to do anything about it? Strategy. Apart from it always being good to keep information close at hand, bear in mind that Tribal Council is, in many ways, theater. Especially this close to the end, with jury at hand, you want to be seen as having victories. Even if these are just challenge victories, that you did little to earn, showing strength at the end can make all the difference. For example, I’d say that that was a major factor in Michele’s victory over Aubry on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Were Aubry’s victories bigger? Yes. Michele’s victories came right at the end, though, and so were very fresh in the minds of the jury. Thus, a factor (though not the only factor) in victory.

With no real post-Tribal Council fallout to deal with, we cut straight to our next immunity challenge, which is, regrettably, ANOTHER obstacle course. This one mainly hails from “Survivor Vanuatu”, with the “push the buoy” part, and it all ends in a puzzle. This is a far less exciting obstacle course than the first one, and long story short, everything about it is lame. Oh, and I have particular ire for the puzzle solution, which is “Not a Participation Trophy”. Funny and difficult, I’ll grant you, but it’s once again going back to those god-awful stereotypes we were stuck with at the outset of this season. I’ll be talking more about this at the end of this blog, but this season is at its best when it distances itself from the “Millennials vs. Gen-X.” theme as much as possible. Except for Zeke and Bret’s heart to heart.

Ken ends up winning, which makes the challenge even MORE pointless, since he wasn’t in danger anyway. David seems the obvious choice to go, but Adam wants to be absolutely sure, and so goes out searching for an idol. Adam states that “finding the idol is the most important thing” at this phase of the game, which I have to patently disagree with. Adam, at this phase of the game, the most important thing is STRATEGIZING TO MAKE SURE YOUR NAME ISN’T BROUGHT UP! But what are the chances of that happening? It’s not like Adam’s own allies have talked about voting him out before.

At the very least, Adam does find an idol, and gets more than a little emotional about his mother again. Contrary to my snark last time, I’ll give him this one. It’s an emotional time in the game, finding an idol can be an emotional experience, and Adam certainly has more reason to cry than some other people. Plus, for whatever reason, this one felt more organic than some other emotional moments from him.

Shock of all shocks, Adam’s being away from camp puts the target on his back. For all that Bret does have friends on the jury, and he’s initially considered the only alternate to a David vote, David actually tries to swing the vote against Adam, partly because Adam’s the only one not there at the time, but also as a strategic threat, which does, admittedly, have some logic to it. David even tries to swing it as a shutout by filling Bret in on the plan. David assumes that Bret would be happy to just not be targeted, but Bret is ALSO not someone who’s just playing to get to the end, which I commend. He makes a point of warning Adam about the votes, and Adam reassures him about the idol. Unfortunately for Adam, he falls victim to one of the oldest “Survivor” pratfalls: being cocky. When he brings the subject up to Hannah, he mentions his idol and his intent to play it. Now, I can understand Adam’s confidence. He and Hannah have been pretty close allies throughout the majority of the game, so I can see why he’d confide in her. But with all the information we have, we see that this is not the case. David, in arguing for an Adam boot, brought up his, Hannah’s, and Ken’s final three pact, which shows that no, Hannah is not to be trusted. She plays around with the idea of telling or not telling, and she basks in her power as we head off to Tribal Council.

As to what she should do? As with the Sunday vote, the correct answer is the choice that eliminates the biggest threat, which at this point is David. This final three pact is all fine and good, but as much as Hannah would deny it, she’s playing to get to the end if she goes through with it.

We get a bit more vitriol at this Tribal Council, particularly when Adam calls out David’s threat level. We get on the subject of how much David’s grown, and David gives a moving speech about being afraid of birds, throwing in some self-deprecating humor in the mix. Pretty much a textbook “Winner” speech for this show. And Adam calls it out, as he should. But mean Bret also shows up, as we’ll see shortly.

Sad to say, this is the most predictable part of the episode. What with the showing of the Hannah, David, and Ken discussion of a final three pact, there’s no way that’s broken or shown if it wasn’t significant. Bret goes, and really lays into everyone for not voting out David. I completely understand, but dude, Adam voted WITH you. Lay off of him, at the very least.

I’ve made clear that it wasn’t the smart move, but I must admit, I’m sorry to Bret go. He’s grown on me, mostly in the last couple of episodes, but sometimes that’s all you need. Between the heart he showed in bonding with Zeke and his genuinely funny turns of phrase (seriously, I laughed at this episode more than I have any other in a while), the guy was a character. He will be missed, and I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him again.

So, what’s Hannah’s justification for not eliminating David THIS time? Well, it’s textbook egocentrism. Despite the fact that everyone else can tell that Hannah’s pretty much been guaranteed a finals spot for a while, she believes that this was not the right time to eliminate David. She’d have lost Ken’s trust, and Bret didn’t want to take her to the end. I can’t really blame her too much for not realizing her position in the game. It’s easy to see ourselves as the center of everything, especially in a game like “Survivor”, that’s all about personality. But even factoring that into account, Hannah should still have known better. Adam acknowledged previously that Bret is a threat, so it’s likely he’d want Bret out, and she’s pretty much neglected Adam in this equation. Most likely, either Ken or Bret goes next if you get David, and then, if you’re as big a threat as you say you are, you can waltz to an easy victory!

Moving on to our final immunity challenge, we get a repeat of “Survivor One World”. Again, GREAT CHOICE GUYS!

Please note the sarcasm.

Anyway, this challenge involves maneuvering a bunch of pots through a wire maze that can knock over a stack at the top. First person to stack all 13 pots wins. Or, should no one get them all in 30 minutes, the highest stack wins. Definitely a tricky challenge, and SO CLOSE to being an endurance challenge, but it still just kind of falls short for me. Fortunately, we do get a lot of back and forth between our players, and wind is a major factor. Adam actually takes my strategy of sitting back when you get a decently high stack and relying on other players goofing it up to get you a victory. And it nearly works, as Ken’s stack of 10 falls quickly, but Adam’s is undone by the wind soon after. Surprisingly, it’s HANNAH who’s the real competition, initially tying Ken at 10 pots. Thus, we get a five-minute time trial to determine the winner, resulting in a thrilling… anticlimax. Yep, Ken wins again, giving Adam and Hannah even less room to maneuver.

Adam gears up for a fire-making challenge, which certainly seems inevitable. Hannah, however, wants to try and talk Ken into doing the smart thing, for once, and voting out David. I’ll grant you that it’s better to have Hannah talk to him than Adam, as Adam’s skills at persuasion are sub-par against anyone not named Jay, but this is KEN we’re talking about. “Trust-Test” Ken. You really think a strategic argument will work on him? Granted, Hannah’s approach of “You don’t want to be seen as a moron” is about as good an argument for Ken as you can get, but as all we really hear from him is more pontificating about integrity, I’m not convinced in the slightest.

One nice bit, though: Adam and David cut the bullshit and just admit they’re targeting each other. Adam gets a little bit mean about it, but by and large, it’s just a friendly competition, and nice to see.

Tribal itself falls in the middle of the pack. I don’t remember much about it, mostly due to the outcome, but it did have it’s moments. In particular, I loved Adam’s pointing out of David’s threat level with his hands, only for David to move Adam’s hand a few inches higher. Like I said, this finale may not have been the most drama filled, but it definitely earns a lot of points in the humor category.

The trouble is that, with all the Ken loyalty talk we’ve been getting, there’s no way it’s not at best a fire making challenge. Adam going home due to Hannah not wanting to force a tie is also a possibility, but not what actually happens.

No, Ken actually decides to grow a brain, and David leaves with a lot of class. Before I talk about David, though, let me once again compliment this bit of editing. I’ve been happy with the editing this episode so far, but this was the moment that got me most of all. The Jay boot was kind of a surprise, but my jaw literally dropped at this outcome. Never in a million years did I think Ken would actually grow a spine and vote out David, but good for him. We’re shocked, but in a good way, and it’s this type of unpredictability that keeps the show good after all these years.

But as to David: Well, he’s kind of a hybrid of Jay and Bret’s exits this episode, in regards to how I feel. On the one hand, David hands down played the best strategic and social game of the season (overall), and the dude’s exit is a loss. That said, his victory would have been disappointing. While no one got a real “winner’s edit” this season (another example of how complaining can influence things, and another credit to the editors), David came the closest, with how blatantly his “fish-out-of-water” story came through. It was pretty clear that we were supposed to like this person, kind of like how Cirie was portrayed on “Survivor Exile Island”, or Yau-Man on “Survivor Fiji”. You could kind of see where they were going with these characters, so there was little surprise. I’m bummed his game wasn’t richly rewarded as it should have been, but I’m happy the field’s wide open for victory now.

Don’t believe me? In my pre-episode rankings, I gave Adam the edge in this final three scenario, but in counting up the votes, I’m not so sure. Since absolutely NOTHING of interest happens on Day 39, just the players overestimating how they’ve played this game, I’ll instead devote this portion of the blog to my at-the-time thoughts on probable juror votes to explain why the pool is wide open, at least between Ken and Adam.

Michelle-Tough to tell, since she was out so early and got very little screentime, but I’m putting her in the Hannah camp, since she seems to respect strategic play, and had more and better interactions with Hannah than with Adam.

Taylor-More in the “Not Adam” camp than anything, I’d peg him for Ken, since Taylor is the type to prefer a “bro-down” challenge threat like Ken.

Chris-Values strategic play. Probably doesn’t like the neuroticism of Hannah and the betrayal of Ken. I’d go Adam on this one.

Jessica-Ken, for sure. If she liked him enough to give him the legacy advantage, she’ll give him her vote.

Zeke-Another strategy appreciator, and so will probably go with Hannah, due to his difficulties with Adam earlier in the season.

Will-A tough call, since he really doesn’t have much favor for anyone left. I’d call Will for Ken, due to liking physical threats, but Will’s is probably the most up in the air vote for me at this point.

Sunday-Again, tough to tell, since we didn’t see much of her, so I’ll call her for Ken, due to having more contact with him than Hannah or Adam.

Jay-Adam. That mom sob story got to him.

Bret-As Adam was really the only one of the three who strategized with him, and Bret clearly values strategy, I’d say he’s definitely an Adam supporter.

David-Ken, since the dude was loyal most of the game, and I don’t see him holding too much of a grudge.

That, right there, is a Ken victory. Of course, the wild card here is Adam’s mom’s story. As Jeremy Collins demonstrated on “Survivor Cambodia”, a nice play like that at the end can swap some votes, and with people like Will in play, this is a much more live Final Tribal Council than you’d think.

Good thing, too, because this Tribal Council is tame in terms of questions. It’s not a bore like some other ones were, due to the banter between finalists rather than jurors, so I’ll once again keep things brief and go over each juror’s comments and how I’d predict their vote afterward.

Also, sorry that these aren’t in order of asking, but I can only remember so much. I’ll bring up how order matters on the questions where it matters, and I’ll be talking about it as a whole after all jurors are accounted for, as I think it has a real impact on this Tribal Council.

Michelle-Michelle comes later than I’m putting her, after Hannah has taken some heat, and so lobs her a softball about how often she was on the right side of the vote, before laying into Adam about his blunders. Pretty clear at this point she’s in the Hannah camp, as I guessed.

Taylor-Taylor claims his vote is live, and asks why everyone deserves to win. We get generic answers, but here we see another reason why Ken may have the edge. While Adam has more blatant strategic victories, and less neuroticism working against him, he and Hannah have similar resumes. And I’ll be damned if Hannah is going to let anyone forget that. What is most exciting about this Final Tribal Council is Adam and Hannah constantly rebutting each other’s arguments. It’s fun to watch, but doing so lessens their chances of victory. By claiming each other’s accomplishments, they fail to stand out, and seem like they’re desperately trying to hold onto resume points. Meanwhile, Ken gets to build himself up uncontested. Point to Ken, both overall and for Taylor.

Chris-Chris is our requisite “Here’s who you should vote for.” speech, though not nearly as entertaining as past entries. Unsurprisingly, he supports the strategic one, that being Adam.

Jessica-Surprisingly a lot of vitriol on Ken for betraying David but he seems to give a good response. Between that and her question to Adam about his contributions being answered poorly, I’m keeping her in the Ken category.

Zeke-Takes his time to praise Ken, but also questions Adam about his strategic accomplishments. Zeke’s the first vote I change, as no Hannah talk but good Adam talk probably puts him down as a vote for Adam.

Will-Will goes more strategic, and wants to know the logic behind Adam’s moves. Still keep him as a Ken vote, though, as Will seems more anti-Adam than pro-anyone.

Sunday-She wants to know how people adapted, and where one fits on the scale of “Millennials vs. Gen-X” (God, will this twist not DIE?). Not much information gained on her logic, so I’ll keep her a Ken vote.

Jay-Lobs Adam a softball about his mom. No surprise.

Bret-Naturally wants to know from Adam why it took so long to get rid of David. Adam answers well, and though it leads to more arguing from Hannah, I’ll keep Bret down for Adam.

David-Wants to know how people have grown from their time out here. And this is where Adam’s story comes into play. No one can top the tragedy of a cancerous mom. David probably flips to Adam.

Here’s where order is a factor. As I said, the Adam and Hannah debates could have doomed both of them. But again, Tribal Council in general, and Final Tribal Council in particular, is theater. How you shift the tone is important. And most of the front half of this one was the debates. But the back half was all about Adam’s Mom, and that being the last stuff heard before voting was probably pretty impactful. It’s not just delivery, but timing of delivery, that counts.

It should come as no surprise that Adam wins, so before I talk about that, let’s talk about Adam’s METHOD of winning. As mentioned, it comes off similar to how Jeremy won “Survivor Cambodia”. I called it a somewhat low-down way to victory there, and one would expect me to do the same here. And yes, I DO have an issue or two with this path to victory for Adam, and I’ll be talking about it. But with that said, I have MUCH less of an issue of Adam doing this than Jeremy. There’s a couple of reasons why:

First off, and this is purely a personal thing with me, but a dying parent is much more impactful to me than a new child. Perhaps it’s just because I have lost loved ones, but have no children of my own yet, but it seems to me like the former more naturally tugs at the heartstrings, and if you’re going to do a sympathy vote, it should be for something on this scale. But again, that’s my subjective opinion.

Secondly, this felt much more organic. Adam was lobbed questions that would naturally segway into talking about his mother. With Jeremy, perhaps my memory’s going, but he just kind of blurted it out unrelated to anything. Thus, it seems like Jeremy was trying to get out anything that will help him win, whereas Adam was just answering a question.

Third, and this is the important point: Adam NEEDED to do this. He was very much in danger of losing if he didn’t pull out all the stops against Ken and Hannah. Jeremy, by contrast, was probably winning no matter what, particularly given how Spencer Bledsoe (“Survivor Cagayan”) was perceived those last few days. Thus, Adam’s move was one of desperation, whereas Jeremy’s was one of rubbing salt in the wound.

Also, Adam was the guy I wanted to win from the beginning. Yeah, I’m biased, but I don’t care. My guy won. Neener, neener, neener.

All that said, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t take issue with this. Adam definitely was the more satisfying win of the other two. The inventor of “trust clusters”? The guy with “truth test”? Yeah, Adam had plenty of blunders along the way, but he was clearly the superior strategist of those left. But winning in a LOCKOUT? That’s a stretch. It’s not as though Hannah and Ken had NO accomplishments. Like Spencer and Tasha on “Survivor Cambodia”, they got gypped. The “right” person may have won overall, but don’t shaft good players. And, as I say, there’s a level of scumminess in exploiting a tragedy for personal gain. Ultimately, though, my fear is that future “Survivor” winners will be decided exclusively by degree of sob story. I’m ok with it being a FACTOR in victory, but if it just comes down to “Who has a sob story, and who doesn’t?”, that takes away from the strategy of it, and lessens the game, in my opinion.

But still, good for Adam. We even get a nice reunion show to go with it. I still wish we got more time on it, but Probst did a good job of covering the important topics, didn’t feel the need to talk with those we didn’t want to hear from, and actually got everyone who made the merge, and even a few post merge! Some of the questions were even interesting! Oh, and Michelle’s dragon dress. Awesome. Granted, compared to the reunion shows of old, it’s sub-par, but for everything post “Survivor Caramoan”, this is PHENOMENAL! More please!

Oh, and we hear about our new season. It’s called “Survivor Game Changers”, which already earns points with me for being a far superior title than “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”. That said, if the rumored cast is true, I must take issue with the title of “game changers”. Even by Probst’s definition of “people who influenced the game”, a lot of these rumored people REALLY don’t fit the bill. I’ll save my full thoughts on this season idea for when the who cast comes out officially (since the internet can be wrong at times), but suffice to say that while I like the idea, I think it’s too soon for another all-returnees season, and again, I take umbrage with some of the casting criteria. Awesome looking logo, though.

Speaking of twists, it’s time for the regular…

TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5!

Since the title of this season wouldn’t let us FORGET The way tribes were divided, this list will rank the best and worst ways of tribe division, at least for seasons that divided tribes by some factor or another. Let’s jump right in, since it’s 1:00 AM, and I have work tomorrow!

TOP 5

5. Gender: Bit of an obvious choice, but the conflicts that come from “men vs. women” seasons tend to be fun. Plus, the women usually win when they’re not up against Chris Daugherty (“Survivor Vanuatu”), and it’s good to see.

4. Heroes vs. Villains: Even though this was more of a new coat of paint for an “All-Stars” season, I’ll give credit that it did build up an epic narrative, and gave the season more color than it perhaps deserved. Fun, but relatively uneventful.

3. Blood vs. Water: Adding a personal dynamic to an already personal game can go REALLY well or REALLY badly. Thankfully, this twist has payed off both times (relatively speaking), and the conflicts we get from it make the game all the more interesting.

2. Fans vs. Favorites: This one wins out for giving us the best of both worlds: The excitement of new players along with the guaranteed entertainment of old ones. The only real negative is that the “Fans” side is at a distinct disadvantage, but even then, it’s still fun to see for the reasons described above.

1. Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty: When your tribe divisions are simple and natural, and lead to interesting, not forced, discussion, coupled with good characters, you’ve got divisions that are difficult to do badly.

Honorable Mention: Water vs. Shelter: I’m cheating a bit here, since this was more a division of camps than a tribe theme. Nevertheless the choice between ready-made shelter or easy access to water on “Survivor Thailand” was a dynamic that made the start of the game interesting, even if it didn’t significantly impact the tribes in any way.

BOTTOM 5

5. Age: Like with gender, a fairly easy idea, and one that had to be tried, but all too predictable outcomes make this division not much fun to watch.

4. Millennials vs. Gen-X: I’ve said before: it’s forced an unnecessary. It led to some nice moments in the end, which is why it ends up so low, but again, this season was at its best when the twist was not emphasized.

3. White Collar vs. Blue Collar vs. No Collar: Similar criticisms to the “Millennials vs. Gen-X” twist, only this one was MORE forced. Seriously, is “No Collar” even a thing? That, plus more annoying and forced talk about the twist make this one objectively worse.

2. Race: Needed to be on here for ethical reasons. I admire “Survivor” for trying to add more diversity into the cast, and we got a decent season out of it, but hearing about the “racist season” is just cringe-worthy in general.

1. Haves vs. Have-Nots: Just a poorly conceived twist from the beginning that once again led to predictable results, and ultimately hindered the season. Need I say more?

Honorable Mention: Age and Gender: This one doesn’t really count, as it lasted all of one episode, but as it has the problems of both dividing tribes by age and gender, it bears mentioning.

And now, to my season-requisite “How close was I in my cast assessment?” segment!

Michelle-Wrong. She was more strategic than I though, and less annoying that I thought. She did at least make the merge, but she was still close to my predicted exit point, at least.

Taylor-I’ll give myself this one. Apart from his romance, he was bland and was taken out post-merge as a challenge threat, just as I suspected.

Michaela-Wrong. While she was entertaining, and had some smarts, I way overestimated her social graces and her time in the game.

Zeke-Happy to be wrong on this one. Dude was game savvy and entertaining. Glad he stuck around for a while.

Hannah-I’d say I was right on personality, but she lasted longer than I gave her credit for. Arguably our first mixed bag of this group, and certainly won’t be the last.

Figgy-I didn’t get much of a read on her either way, and she didn’t last very long, so I was right this time.

Mari-Wrong. I think she had the POTENTIAL to be what I thought, but she was cut to early for me to be right about anything about her.

Jay-While I did nail his personality, he lasted much longer than I thought, so overall, wrong.

Adam-Wrong, and happy to be so. Again, some of his personality was like I thought, but I didn’t think he’d win.

Will-As generic as I thought, but much longer-lived.

Sunday-Again, right on personality, wrong on time in the game. She hung in there.

CeCe-Exactly right, for once this season.

Rachel-Let’s hear it for my second correct called first boot in my history of blogging!

Lucy-Again, about right in being a boring personality out fairly early.

Ken-Wrong, due to less game-savvy and being longer lived.

Jessica-Not as on the ball of the game as I thought, but right overall.

Bret-Wrong. He was smart, he was funny, he was more long-lived than I would have guessed. Good for him.

David-At first it seemed like I was wrong about him, but he grew into the strategist I predicted. All I got wrong was his victory.

Paul-WAY wrong. Much less easygoing and more short-lived than I’d have guessed.

Chris-We end on a note of me being right. I can live with that.

And there you have it. A satisfying end to a satisfying season. A lot of people seem to be throwing their hat into the ring about how great this season is, so I’ll give my two cents as well. I think it’s… pretty good. Certainly a season that got better as it went along, which is always nice to have, and the sheer number of crazy events also help make this a fun watch. But is it upper echelon “Survivor”, as someone like Dalton Ross claims? Definitely not! I’d probably say it’s middle-of-the-pack “Survivor”. Don’t get me wrong, it’s definitely a “good” season, and it’s a lot of fun, but one of the best? We got good characters, sure, but in the long run, I don’t think most of them stand out. Also, maybe it was just me, but we had a lot of duds on this season. Oh, most everybody contributed at least SOMETHING over an episode or two, but for the most part, there was hardly anyone who was consistently fun/good at strategy all season. People fading in and out of focus makes it harder to predict the winner, but it also makes it harder to latch on to someone to root for. For me, as well, the theme of this season REALLY drags it down, due to being forced and lame to hear. We got a tender moment or two out of it, but for the most part, the season was at its best when we focussed less on the theme.

Actually, I’d compare this season favorably to “Survivor Cook Islands”. Both have similar problems, with a cast with a lot of filler and a cringe-worthy theme. I think “Survivor Cook Islands” ultimately hit higher highs than this season did, but if I’m being honest, than “Survivor Cook Islands” ultimately had more dud characters than this season, as most people this season at least brought one small SOMETHING at SOME POINT! If you were to hold me down and force me to choose, I’d probably give this season the edge over “Survivor Cook Islands”, due to more consistency in quality and better unpredictability. No one reaches the high of a Yul or an Ozzy, but no one really reaches the low of a Stephanie or a Jenny.

Well, after a summary like that, there’s only one way to end this blog. TRIVIA! Adam is the first player ever to be featured first in the theme song and win the season. And it’s tidbits like that that give me readers.

See you all in March!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Cast Assessment

18 Aug

I’m normally not one to complain about writing this blog. I love “Survivor”, I’m not getting paid, and I just consider the blog an extension of my enjoyment. But I REALLY hope you people appreciate what I’m going through with this one. The particular twist to this season has made reading through the cast biographies UNBEARABLE! If I have to hear rants about “Trophies for participating.” or “Free-Spriritedness” one more time, I’LL STOP WATCHING THE SHOW!

Ok, perhaps that’s a bit extreme. After all, I love this show too much for even THIS annoyingness to put me off of it, and given the twist of the season, we’re doubtless going to be hearing confessionals on these subjects a lot. Which brings me to the point I’ve made before, but bears repeating, that THIS IS A DUMB TWIST! Apart from being a thinly-disguised rehash of “Survivor Nicaragua”, CLEARLY seeding this season for success right off the bat, it just antagonizes two groups, that, otherwise, probably wouldn’t be at each other’s throats. Pretty much all of the points that drive me up the wall with these people come from the question “What does it mean to be (insert generation here)?”, a question that would not be asked were it not for the sake of the twist. Yes, we’ve had similar forced divisions with twists like “Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty”, but there at least, the division was kind of already there to begin with, and didn’t feel like it was bringing the modern world into “Survivor”. Hell, about the only connection I can think of is Carl Bilancione bitching about “Generation X” on “Survivor Africa”, and even that’s stretching it. Point being, it makes me dislike this cast right from the beginning just because of the twist they were cast on.

And truth be told, that’s a shame. There’s a lot to like about this cast overall, and while they may not be the stuff of legends, no one’s teeth-gratingly annoying, and like “Survivor Kaoh Rong” before it, we’ve very few if any generic cast fodder. Had they been put on a different season, I daresay this cast would have been one I’d be raving about up until the show starts. As it stands, they get a “Meh, pretty good, I guess.” pretty much entirely due to the twist.

But just who are these unlucky wunderkinds? Let’s meet them now, in no particular order (though divided up by tribes).

VANUA (Millennials)

Michelle Schubert (28, Missionary Recruiter, Yakima, WA): Ok, while I do think this cast has a lot of potential, I will concede that there are a LOT of very religious people this time around, which I’ve been wary of since having watched “Survivor South Pacific”. We’ve seen in the past that such excessive religion can ruin an otherwise good season. That said, a lot of my fear in this regard is my own personal bias showing, and by and large, I’d say while the people CLAIM to be very religious in their biographies, it doesn’t show too much. That is, except for Michelle. She’s not the one I’d have predicted (occupation aside), but Michelle is our Bible-thumper for the season. Is she irredeemable? Certainly not! As I say, there’s a fair amount of religious people this season, so she’ll definitely find people to relate to. She doesn’t seem to want to let her religion hold her back game-wise, and she does seem to have a good sense of nerdy humor (“Settlers of Catan” was mentioned as a favorite pastime, which always gets a thumbs-up from me, and when asked to give three words to describe herself, she answers “Hungry, hungry hippos”, which is just the kind of non-sequitur I can get behind). But on the whole, I think she’s just too religious, even for this group, and may be in a bit over her head. Definitely expect her out before the merge, and to be somewhat annoying via religious talk.

Taylor Lee Stocker (24, Ski Instructor, Postfall, ID): Ok, this cast is actually more than just generic people, I swear! Man, we are not starting out on the right foot this time around. All the bland people at the beginning. Taylor is your generic good-looking guy we have to have every season, so the women can ogle some guy without a shirt. Actually, it occurs to me that good pecs are an odd quality to have in a ski instructor. Well, moving on, Taylor is unfortunately our main source of arrogance and annoyance from the Millennial side of things in terms of talking about “free spiritedness” and whatnot, but apart from that, he’s just bland, and shall do as all generic good-looking guys do: pad along quietly until the merge, then last a bit longer due to the major strategic threats picking one another off, then getting offed himself for being a challenge threat. And nothing of value will be lost.

Michaela Bradshaw (25, Vacation Club Sales, Ft. Worth, TX): Ah, now this is what we’re talking about! Michaela is actually one of my favorite players this season (not my absolute favorite, we’ll get to him), and she’s also my female pick to win the whole shebang! Michaela is on the younger side of things, even for this cast, and certainly seems like she knows how to kick back and have fun. At the same time, I don’t see the flakiness in her that I see in a LOT of members of this tribe. She doesn’t talk like your stereotypical young black woman (a rarity for this show), and you can tell just from looking at her that, while she doesn’t necessarily show it brazenly, she’s got a fire going in her, a determination that suits her well. As with most seasons of “Survivor”, I feel that the winner is most likely going to be the player who can best balance what is needed to win this season. As those qualities often relate to the twist of the season (due to everyone on said season INCESSANTLY TALKING ABOUT IT) the winner this time around, I say, will be someone who can balance the carefree nature of Millennials and the work ethic of Gen X. Michaela, more than anyone, exemplifies this. She’s in no way a flaky party girl, but she’s unassuming enough that she can fake it. When she’s forced to interact with the other tribe, she’ll be able to use her life story and general attitude to fit in with them. She’s also another one I was worried about being overly religious, but from what I’ve seen, it barely informs her character, meaning she can use it to get in with the religious people on the season, but not offend the others. It’s a good balance, and add onto that a healthy bout of social awareness, and I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Michaela DOESN’T win! In fact, I’d compare her favorably to Vecepia Towry (“Survivor Marquesas”): Able to blend in wherever she goes, and almost sneak her way to a win.

Zeke Smith (28, Asset Manager, Brooklyn, NY): Ooh, Zeke. Poor, poor Zeke. You all remember Zeke, right? He was featured prominently in the “Next Season” preview at the end of “Survivor Kaoh Rong”. Guy with the loud Hawaiian shirt and the tacky moustache? Yeah, he’s that guy. If you wanted further reason to cringe, his mannerisms are regrettably reminiscent of Colton Cumbie (“Survivor One World”). Not to say that he’s anything at all like Colton! No, Zeke is MUCH more self-aware, self-effacing, and generally has a good attitude for life. Jokes aside, I like the guy. He’s got good spirit, is a real fan of the show, and is just generally going to be fun to watch. At least, in his brief time on the show, he’s going to be fun to watch. Zeke, I suspect, was picked in early marketing for the show because he stands out so much, which makes sense. You’re selling a season to an audience, you want to use your most memorable people. That said, early on in “Survivor”, and I don’t think I can emphasize this enough, STANDING OUT IS NOT A GOOD THING! Zeke is clearly a different breed from the rest of his tribe, even joking branding them “Children” in his bio, and for this, he is toast. Too easy a target too early. Granted, you could argue that he’s got the skills to blend in with the other tribe, and I agree if he makes it that far then he’ll be ok, but the odds against that are just so slim. Unlike someone like Michaela, Zeke just can’t blend. It’s not in his nature. Zeke’s out before even the tribe swap, no question there.

Hannah Shapiro (24, Barista, West Hollywood, CA): It would seem that “Survivor” is attempting to have more nerds on each season, and as a nerd, I am grateful. However, unlike some other nerds we’ve seen who break stereotypes, Hannah fits all too well into a “nerdy” stereotype. I hope she does better than I think she’ll do, because she seems to genuinely love the show and has a lot of endearing qualities. Unfortunately, the impression I get from her is a horrible combination of “In over her head” and “Out-there”. Granted I labeled Aubry Bracco a similar way last season, and you see how that turned out, but the impression I get from Hannah is less “Aubry” and more “Shirin” (“Survivor Worlds Apart”). And I’m talking pre-merge Shirin, where she was hopelessly out of touch and just generally creeping everyone else out. Hannah definitely has it in her bring out the game of at least post-merge Shirin, if not even an Aubry-type game, but my gut says she’s yet another pre-merge boot.

Jessica “Figgy” Figueroa (24, Bartender, Nashville, TN): Remember, I said this cast was MOSTLY devoid of generic players. Quirky nickname aside, Figgy doesn’t really stand out for me one way or the other. She could be one of the craftiest players ever, or she could be a complete flop. I honestly cannot tell. Since I do have to make some sort of prediction, though, I’m going to say that Figgy won’t make the merge. The one thing about her that DID leave an impact was talking about her latina heritage making her “spicy” or a bit bombastic. Pulled off right, this can be a real game-maker. However, it’s a difficult personality style to play with, and I don’t see enough from Figgy to really make me believe she can. She’ll definitely be around for several episodes, since while I don’t see her making the merge, I do see her coming close, but don’t expect her to win.

Mari Takahashi (31, Professional Gamer, Los Angeles, CA): You will forgive me for ripping off a Dalton Ross joke from “Survivor Exile Island”, but it’s just too perfect here. I for one, am glad that “Survivor” was kind enough to allow Ken Hoang (“Survivor Gabon”) to have a sex change and compete on the show again. He’s always been one of my personal favorites, and an underrated gem from a long-neglected season of the show. Joking aside, Mari actually has very few similarities to Ken, beyond the pair being Asian-American professional video game players. Ken’s arc was all about overcoming shyness, and having an unassuming demeanor. Mari simply EXUDES confidence, and looks like she can take on the world. And I like it. There’s something infectious about her kind of cheeriness that I just can’t help but love. On top of that, the woman’s clearly got game, shown both through what little strategic discussion we get from her and from her absolutely BUILT body! I’ll admit, I may have a wee bit of a crush, though not nearly to the degree that I had on someone like Aubry or Julia Landauer (“Survivor Caramoan”). Still, in the span of a short time, Mari’s guile and intellect have won me over. I don’t see her winning, just because she IS so brazen in a lot of ways, but I see her doing well. She won’t be going down without a fight, that’s for certain, so I’d say look for her demise around the mid-merge point, when she just can’t win immunity anymore.

Justin “Jay” Starrett (27, Real Estate Agent, Ft. Lauderdale, FL): Jay ALMOST fell into the same category as Taylor earlier, but he’s got just enough of an edge to him to stand out. The pair are similar, both in terms of looks and exposing about the supposed virtues of millennials, but Jay seems like he really wants to be here, and that he’s got a bit more going on than Taylor. He doesn’t hide it very well, but it’s there. Sadly, his poor job of hiding it will be his undoing. While Taylor can pretty much coast by until the merge, Jay will be seen as both a physical and strategic threat, meaning his demise will be coming slight sooner, before the merge. After the tribe swap, most certainly, but unless he can hide his darker, more intellectual side better than he showed here, the man will be picked off by the opposing tribe.

Adam Klein (25, Homeless Shelter Manager, San Francisco, CA): I’ve been pretty down on the guys for this tribe thus far. We’ve got two who I don’t like but might do ok, and one guy I enjoy but who’s probably not long for the game. Isn’t there anyone who might break this pattern? As you might guess from the hyperbolic introduction to him, there is, and his name is Adam, my personal favorite player on the season. Adam’s got enough nerdy qualities to endear himself to me, but not enough to be truly stereotypical. The guy’s also got a philosophy on life I can identify with: make a difference rather than make money. Granted, this could mark a short time in the game, and he’s certainly not my male pick to win the whole thing, but the guy’s got more going for him than you’d think. He’s another fan of the show, which almost always bodes well, and the fact that he’s not in-your-face about it can only help him. While he does seem to have his moral code, it’s pretty clear he can toss that out the window, and he’s smart enough (particularly given his manager experience) to keep up the pace strategically. What brings him down is a potential lack of focus, as well as just being a bit of an obvious schemer as the numbers whittle down around him. The latter is fairly self explanatory, but as for the former, well, the poor guy’s mom has cancer, and he’s playing for her. As Jenna Morasca demonstrated on “Survivor The Amazon”, being distracted by an ill family member does not guarantee loss, and can even help you at times, but it’s just too big of a risk for me to give Adam my full pick. The guy’s got a lot going on, though, so I expect him to make it fairly far. Mid-to-late merge, probably. Then someone will figure out his game, and he’ll be gone.

Will Wahl (18, High School Student, Long Valley, NJ): Will has the distinction of being the youngest person ever to compete on “Survivor”. I hope he enjoys that distinction, because he won’t be around long enough to make an impact any other way. I’m not normally opposed to a player on the basis of age alone, but the fact is that it does take at least a certain emotional maturity to play “Survivor” really well, and that’s more likely to come in an older person. Granted, age is no guarantee of maturity, nor youth immaturity (see Dan Foley on “Survivor Worlds Apart” for an example of the former, and Julia Sokolowski on “Survivor Kaoh Rong” for an example of the latter), but in the case of Will, I don’t see much of anything to indicate otherwise, so I have to go with the null hypothesis in this case. Now, he is a fan of the show, but that alone does not overcome his potential age problem. He might be able to get away with PLAYING older, since his voice is WAY too deep for his looks, but I feel like he’ll betray himself eventually, and thus is gone before the merge.

TAKALI (Gen-X)

Sunday Burquest (45, Youth Pastor, Ostego, MN): Remember those religious people I was railing against earlier? Yeah, Sunday is definitely one of them, though not quite to the degree that I thought she’d be. I honestly thought she’d take Michelle’s spot on the annoyingly religious scale, but she’s overall very humble about the whole thing, increasing her chances. On top of that, she actually made a compelling argument in her introductory video that swayed me a bit, pointing out that both as a mother and a youth pastor, she’s good at handling children, a skill that will most likely come in handy for her. Plus, the tribe mother role is one that’s worked in the past, and I do think Sunday has the skills to pull it off. Will she, though? I think not. Unfortunately, the twist of this season has presumably fired up an independent spirit within the millennials, and as Freud would love, mother is amongst the first to go. Considerable though her skills are, Sunday and her religion might just be SLIGHTLY too divisive to overcome the other tribe, and so once she comes into contact with them, she’s a goner. Granted, she’s got a good fighting spirit, so I don’t think she’s gone IMMEDIATELY after the swap, but probably during the early merge.

Ciandre “CeCe” Taylor (39, Insurance Adjuster, Granada Hills, CA): You just COULDN’T give us two non-stereotypical black women on this season, could you show? No, CeCe fills our role of “sassy black woman” for the season, and even brings in Cydney Gillon’s supposed gimmick of having multiple personalities from last season. Not good signs overall, and it doesn’t help that she’s one of the more vocal anti-millennials of the season. True, that might just be the line of questioning in pre-game interviews, but the fact remains that if she pulls that attitude on members of the other tribe, she just won’t last that long. I don’t buy her claims that being an insurance agent in any way prepares you for the game, so I don’t expect her to last long. A pre-merge boot if ever there was one, though she’ll probably make the tribe swap ok.

Rachel Ako (37, Recruiting Director, Los Angeles, CA): When I first started looking at this cast, one of the things I liked from their bios alone, was the fact that they all seemed to have a fairly equal shot. True, some people were obviously better players than others, but no one really seemed to be cannon fodder. I was happy that way. And then Rachel presented herself in her video, and it became clear that yes, there IS cannon fodder on this season. Vapid supermodel? Check. No real accomplishments outside of that, despite claims to the contrary? Check. Hopelessly naive about the nature of the game? Check and double check! Rachel sealed the deal on her first-boot status by talking in her video about how surprised she was to see a fellow contestant who was a “jerk”, as “everyone else seemed like really good people.” Oh you sweet, naive thing. If your opposing attitude towards the rest of your tribe wasn’t enough, this just made it abundantly clear who will go first. You don’t go into “Survivor” thinking that people will be good people, and expect them to fall in line with you.

Lucy Huang (42, Dietician, Diamond Bar, CA): Lucy, much like Figgy on the other team, is a bit of a tough nut to crack. She’s got some things going for her, being stronger physically than you’d expect, and the constant drive to better herself is a plus, but she also seems to have something about her that seems haughty. I can’t put my finger on what it is, since she doesn’t do or say anything particularly egregious, but I get the feeling that she’ll have a hard time fitting in with other people, even on her own tribe. I don’t see her as TOO early a target because of this, but I don’t see her making it too far either. She could make the merge, she could not, but she’ll be gone somewhere in that time period.

Ken McNickle (33, Model, Denver, CO): Ken ALMOST got the first boot pick before I got to Rachel. The guy’s hardworking enough to fit in on his tribe, I suppose, but his lifestyle just seemed so diametrically opposed to his tribe’s attitude in general that I didn’t see him lasting too long. His claim to fame is living alone, pretty much self-sufficient in Hawaii for about 5 years, which is impressive, but seems too hippy-dippy for a tribe like this one. Add onto that the fact that he’s got an obvious bit of sleaze to him and he’s in trouble. This is a tribe that isn’t hurting too much in the athletic department, and add onto that his obvious conniving nature, combined with a probably attitude of “Age and treachery” from the power on his tribe, and I had him labeled a goner. And then, he got to talking about his little girl, in a very sweet, genuine way, and everything changed. Here at last is a link, an uncompromising, human link that the guy can use as an “in”, and protect himself early game. For all his talk, he’s got the smarts to do at least that, so expect him to be around for at least a little while. Since he is so transparent, I don’t see any alliance keeping him around long post-merge, but he could win immunities, so I’d say he’s actually gone more like early or mid merge. Odd, how one little confessional can change that.

Jessica Lewis (37, Assistant District Attorney, Voorheesville, NY): WOW! Now THIS is a woman I can get behind! Powerful, smart, and with a good wit to back her up. What’s not to like? Nothing, actually. It’s only because of the amazingness that is Michaela that Jessica isn’t my pick to win. Well, that and the fact that historically lawyers do not do well on the show, but Jessica may break the pattern yet. She clearly knows what she’s doing, has prepped herself, and despite having many of the conventional attitudes of her tribe, seems like enough of a chameleon to blend in come the tribe swap. I guess if I were to find fault in her, it’s that she’s clearly a woman who likes to be in power. Again, I’m very much all for that, especially on this show, but historically, such players tend to lose, which is unfortunate. Still, look for Jessica’s lawyer skills to take her deep, probably leaving sometime late-merge.

Bret LaBelle (42, Police Officer, Dedham, MA): Bret follows the “Rodney Lavoie Jr.” Model of character, seen on “Survivor Worlds Apart”. The man is loud, bombastic, funny, and very much set in his ways, which will be trouble come the tribe swap. With regards to his original tribe, he fits right in, but with the other tribe, he’s an obvious target, both not fitting in well and being threatening. I don’t see any flexibility from this guy, and that alone makes him a goner. He’ll probably be a lot of fun, but don’t expect him to last beyond the tribe swap, or make the merge.

David Wright (42, Television Writer, Sherman Oaks, CA): Were it not for the inclusion of Adam in the cast, David would be my personal favorite. He’s got a good wit, a good sense about himself, doesn’t take the twist of this season NEARLY as seriously as the rest of his team (he notes “eating breakfast” as being part of what defines Gen X, an obviously glib answer), and even shares a few of my pet peeves (people who don’t use their turn signals and people who believe in ghosts and psychics in particular coming to mind). The dude does not belong in the wild, a fact that he blatantly admits, but it endears me to him all the more. Apart from making for a very compelling character, it means that the drive to win the show must be SO STRONG that it outweighs all the negatives, a factor that can lead to a person making it to the end, or even winning. Sure enough, David is my male pick to win the whole thing. While he doesn’t fit in the BEST with his tribe he seems like the sort of guy who’ll fade into the background very well, maybe taking on a subtle leadership role as the man behind the man, but nothing more. While he is on the older side of things, even for this tribe, he personality seems youthful enough that I think he could blend well with the other tribe. Like Michaela, this gives him an edge I think few other people this season have, and that alone makes him the biggest male threat to win.

Paul Wachter (52, Boat Mechanic, Sugarloaf Key, FL): Out of all the pre-cast interviews, Paul got the most comments from the other players (many saying that he was a retired NFL player for some reason), and it’s easy to see why. The dude stands out, with long hair, tattoos, and a certain devil-may-care attitude almost. A distinctive person and this could be a bad thing, but alone amongst this season, Paul is a standout who might be ok. I don’t see his tribe losing very much early on, and while Paul might be an early target for standing out so much, he’s got a good enough head on his shoulders to not make waves I feel, and will let the tribe have their bigger fish to fry. Once he’s with the other tribe, they’ll pretty much automatically accept him for being an acceptably “out there” older person. Granted, both his bio and (to a lesser extent) his video had him being fairly critical of the other tribe, but from his general attitude, I get the feeling that this is more opinions being drawn out of him by the twist than genuine attitudes, and that he’d be smart enough to keep those to himself when he’s with the others. Now, I also don’t see him winning, since I don’t think he’s got the desire or the strategic skill to get there, but being an easygoing guy should get him to the early or mid merge, I’d say.

Chris Hammons (38, Trial Lawyer, Moore, OK): Continuing our trend of “Almosts” for this cast, Christ was ALMOST the male pick to win it all. A contradiction in terms, Chris is the slack-jawed yokel with a law degree. Gotta admit, that’s something you don’s see every day on “Survivor”, and should make for an interesting watch. Chris should do well, since his accent and general demeanor will probably make people underestimate him, and think he’s not as smart as he really is. I say SHOULD because while we get a lot of the “good old country boy” from him, I never really saw anything that made me think of his law degree. Perhaps they just hand them out in Oklahoma? I kid, I kid. I’m banking on Christ showing more smarts in the game than he did in his video and bio, so I’ll give him a mid-to-late merge exit. This lack of evidence would have made him a bit of a gamble, but he should at least be entertaining, and might even come to a dark horse victory.

And there you have what is actually a really good cast. Nice mix of strategists and characters (often in the same person), no really “wasted” slots, and definitely some people for the audience to latch onto. Too bad this twist makes a lot of them look like elitist assholes. Perhaps the show itself can even out the perspective, and make them likable again, but as it stands, I’m not as excited for the season as I usually am, mainly because of the twist.

Speaking of twists, I have one for you, my readers, and sadly it’s not a good one. Somehow, writing a free blog on the internet does not make me enough money to live on, so I recently acquired a full-time job. Normally this wouldn’t be a problem, but I work a shift that happens during the time “Survivor” airs, and so I will not be able to watch it the minute it comes out. This, in turn, means that “Idol Speculation” will lose some of it’s famed punctuality. It really hurts me to have to do this, but being able to pay rent and buy food is SLIGHTLY more important than watching “Survivor”, so, even though it loses the one thing this blog had going for it, I must wait to give you what you want. Still, I shall endeavor to avoid all spoilers, watch the show as soon as I can, and give you my honest reactions, hopefully free of outside influence.

I was wrong on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, let’s hope I’m wrong on this one! See you next month for, as I’m calling it, “Survivor MGX”!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.