Idol Speculation: “Survivor Ghost Island” Episode 5: Disaster Tribe

The term “Disaster Tribe” is in my opinion used far too loosely in the “Survivor” fandom. Did your tribe just lose two challenges in a row? Vote out someone the fans like? Congratulations! You are now one of the worst tribes in “Survivor” history.

With that said, although perhaps SLIGHTLY premature, I feel that Malolo has earned that distinction tonight. While not nearly as bad as Ulong (“Survivor Palau”), their win/loss record is currently on par with that of the Fang tribe (“Survivor Gabon”), which unquestionably falls into the category of “Disaster Tribe”. In fact, I bring up Fang specifically because I can see people questioning the legitimacy of the term due to tribe swaps. After all, “Survivor Gabon” features the same number of tribe swaps as “Survivor Ghost Island”, and yet, Fang still gets the distinction. No reason why Malolo shouldn’t as well.

Wasting no time, we get right to the tribe swap. Nope, not even enough time to foreshadow things with the same ironic confessionals we always get! Don’t worry, we’ll get the in the middle of the swap, with Mike and James both celebrating salvation, while Desi curses the turn of events. She tries to remain optimistic, though, noting that, as the episode title tells us, “Fate is the Homie”. Can’t say I’m familiar with that expression, but I admire the optimism nonetheless. Also have to admire how the editors tried to trick us by showing a challenge with only two tribe lanes, thus hiding the twist of the swap, which I will discuss in the next paragraph.

Our boring method of swapping is at least alleviated somewhat by there being three tribes now, which makes for a refreshing change. True, we’ve had a lot of three-tribe swaps by this point in the series, but they at least waited a while before doing so. Our new Naviti has Bendan, Chelsea, Domenick, Libby and Donathan. Our new Malolo has Kellyn, Angela, Desi, Mike, and James. As for our new tribe, Yanuya (one of the most awkward tribe names to say, in my opinion) gets Wendell, Chris, Sebastian, Jenna, and Laurel. Once again, original Naviti gets an advantage on every single tribe, at least at initial glance, and this time I can’t even blame a set-up by the producers. There was only one tray of buffs for people to pick from. This was just really rotten luck for the original Malolos. Again, at least at first. Looking at the three tribes, the only one where Naviti seems to be 100% tight is, well, Naviti. Malolo, while semi-tight, has Angela, who if you’ll recall was burned by her original tribe. True, those who burned her are not ON Malolo, but the pain still lingers. As for Yanuya, they probably have the best outlook. They have Chris on their team, who is annoying (as we will soon see), and at odds with Wendell.

Speaking of which, having Wendell on this tribe is a relief, both for the producers and for Wendell himself. From a production standpoint, the big risk with a three-tribe swap is that you create a disaster tribe inadvertently. After all, having to start over from scratch, and with no rewards, really makes it hard for a tribe to do well. See Angkor from “Survivor Cambodia” as an example. Thus, having Wendell on the tribe is a relief for them. Not only is he a strong challenge player (along with everyone else save possibly Jenna), thus mitigating this factor somewhat, but Wendell is the furniture designer, aka the guy who made Naviti camp so damn fantastic that the decent Malolo camp seems crappy by comparison. If anyone’s going to help mitigate that disadvantage, it’s this guy.

As for Wendell himself, he just needed some sort of Hail Mary pass to survive. He was developing some relationships, but if the original Malolos sided with Chris, he probably would have been targeted, due to Domenick’s idol. True, Wendell is still on a tribe with Chris, but if you’ll recall, Chris is annoying, and Wendell and Laurel seem very close. With Laurel here, and no Donathan bonding with Chris, Wendell’s chances just skyrocketted. Plus, now that Domenick and Chris are separated, the feud will hopefully calm down. Granted, this means this storyline gets dragged out still FURTHER, but there are worse things that could happen.

In fact, this seems to play out, as we start out at the Yanuya camp. And no, I’m not bringing up all these points just because they all come true. This is exactly what I was thinking for Wendell when the swap happened, it just tickled me that everything came true exactly as I thought. Wendell, ever the social player, starts off by making friends, even with the people he wasn’t close to. Sebastian, it seems, likes to collect dingehoppers… er, I mean seashells! But, as swaps come unexpectedly, he left it back at Naviti. Sensing a swap, Wendell had the foresight to grab it before leaving, and return it to Sebastian. This, given that Sebastian himself admits that he and Wendell aren’t super close, shows just how aware and good Wendell is playing these social moments. Wendell admits to us in confessional that this new lease on life is a release, and that it’s nice not to have to stress about keeping the peace between Chris and Domenick. Hell, Chris even goes to far as to call a truce between the two. Granted, a fair amount of that is probably politicking on Chris’ part, but what we see seems to be genuine. And Chris being annoying? Got that! Wendell comments on it, leading to Chris bragging about his beach volleyball playing. Look, credit where it’s due, Chris is a nice three-dimensional player who is not all annoying all the time. But the tender bonding moments do not undo the annoying moments. Capping it all is the “revelation” that Chris models. My issue, actually, is not with Chris holding that back initially. He’s right that it would stereotype him as vain and stupid, things you don’t want to be seen as on “Survivor”. Well, ok, SOMETIMES you want to be seen as stupid, but generally not a good stereotype. My issue is that Chris thinks this is a revelation. Oh, Chris. It was already too late to avoid those stereotypes. Laurel all but confirms this, noting that she’s going through conversations with Chris with gritted teeth. She gets Jenna on her side, meaning Wendell’s chances look better and better. I’ve seen some shade on Wendell because he hasn’t been “living up to the hype” online. With this masterful social playing, I hope that talk goes away.

Checking out the other tribes, we don’t hear too much from Malolo. It’s pretty much what you’d expect, with the original Naviti seeming to team up, while James and Mike pair off. James admits that it’s a bit tense, since the pair were never that close (hell, Mike wrote down James’ name already), but needs must. In fact, James finds himself calling the shots, as he has the relationship with Angela that could be the make-or-break for the pair.

Naviti, being the most solid majority, is the least interesting, though at least Bradley can stop whining about the campsite now. He and Domenick reconnect, with Domenick then targeting Libby to go next, which makes sense. She’s not much use in challenges, and Domenick has at least some relationship with Donathan, meaning there’s no need to burn that bridge. Nothing much of interest has happened on either of these tribes,b ut we’ve at least gotten strategy enough to make the immunity challenge an unpredictable toss-up.

Speaking of which, it’s CHALLENGE TIME! Here we have an oldie but a goodie: the blindfolded obstacle course. One caller must direct two pairs to collect bags of puzzle pieces by spinning one down, untying another, and digging up a third. Still blindfolded, said caller must then direct a pair to solve a puzzle, with the first two tribes to finish getting immunity. While assuredly a reused challenge, it’s a fun one, and falls into the category of “‘Survivor’ Staple” instead of just “Lazy”. Plus, having a simple puzzle that must ultimately be solved by the blindfolded person is sadistic. I loved that twist on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and I love it here.

Sadly, this challenge does have the drawback of having less physical comedy than other iterations of the challenge. Less chances for people to bang into things, and when they do happen, such as Chelsea bashing her nose hard on the caller’s stand, it’s more sad than funny. Not a deal-breaker, but something sorely missed. Really, the only moment of comedy here was Chealsea and Donathan accidentally grabbing the wrong bag from the untying station.

Also, it’s revealed that the immunity idol splits cleanly in two, which I always love, but I think this one may be the best one yet. This split is pretty much seamless, yet each half still looks like an idol. A tough act to pull off, and this season does it beautifully.

Our callers are Desi for Malolo, Wendell for Yanuya, and Domenick for Naviti. In terms of volume, I can’t complain. All seem logical choices to be heard from afar. However, you have to bear in mind that the caller must also be the puzzle solver. While Wendell and Domenick seem ok in this regard, I must remind you that Desi said herself in the first episode that puzzles were not her strong suit. And this is the tribe where you have KELLYN, aka the Goddess of Puzzles? This seems like a queer choice.

That said, one can’t deny Desi’s loudness or enthusiasm. She actually gets Malolo an early lead, helping to add to the mystery of who wins. Did I not mention that? Yeah, for once, this episode did a great job of keeping the losing tribe a mystery. All tribes got strategy, and so all are in it. Great job, guys! Way to break the streak. Anyway, despite a major screw-up by Wendell in forgetting to get a bag of puzzle pieces, Malolo still goes to pieces. Granted, this was a hard puzzle to do by feel. With all the pieces being circular, it would be difficult to identify them by feel. Note that Desi has problems and calls out for Kellyn to grab “the white one”, which is absolutely useless to Kellyn. Really, Wendell and Domenick have the right idea, getting the pair they’re direction to hold a piece to the edge and slide it around the perimeter to find its place. As such, Desi loses the challenge for Malolo. Ok, not as interesting as a Yanuya Tribal Council would have been, but better than a Naviti Tribal Council, which is what I thought we were getting. Yanuya clearly has the advantage in physical contests, and thanks to Kellyn, Malolo has the advantage in puzzle contests. Point being, if any tribe is at a disadvantage challenge-wise, it’s Naviti.

So the storyline at Malolo plays out pretty much as you’d expect. Desi cries a bit in disappointment, but rallies with Kellyn to target James. Angela isn’t given a say, which may prove to bite them in the butt. After all, Angela doesn’t know Mike from anyone else she hasn’t played with, but has been in a sense spared by James, and has a bond with him. James understandably exploits this bond in a pretty subtle way, just gently reminding her about how her tribe backstabbed her, and about the bond they’ve shared. This does get Angela to start questioning things, after a pretty touching scene about the changes going on in her life.

But, just in case James’ pitch didn’t sell Angela on voting out Desi, let Kellyn talk to convince her! Seriously, this isn’t the WORST alliance pitch I’ve yet heard, but it’s in the ballpark. Kellyn talks about how tight the original Naviti are, particularly those who ended up on the second Malolo, and talks about how much she would like it if Angela voted with her. I can at least see SOME logic here. Make Angela feel wanted, and she’s more likely to come with you. Fair enough. But there’s no need to go out and EMPHASIZE how tight you are with the original Naviti you came to Malolo with, particularly in the case of someone who may not be so high on “Naviti Strong” anymore. Yes, Kellyn, talk on and on about how TIGHT you are with a group of people not including Angela, how unbreakable that bond is! I’m sure that won’t emphasize how hard it would be for Angela to get anywhere with this group, nor in any qua dissuade her from working with you! Yeesh. Kellyn’s been playing a near-flawless game thus far, but this is a pretty major stumble.

Gaffes aside, though, Angela’s best move is probably to stick with Kellyn and Desi. To be fair, neither move is really bad for her. Either she keeps someone whom she’s bonded with, and who’s saved her in the past, or she sticks with the current majority tribe. In my view, though, voting out James is the better choice. That bond is nice, but there are other Malolo to work with. While I understand Angela not trusting the original Naviti after that attempted blindside, none of the people on this tribe were involved in that. Voting out Desi, however, would permanently burn a lot of Naviti bridges. Voting out James, especially pre-jury, only really burns a bridge with James. He wasn’t the most well-connected member of Malolo anyway, and that tribe is quickly running out of options.

As to which one is going to go: I have no idea! Seriously! James and Desi have both had adequate screentime, talking about their personal journeys. Desi, of course, reminisces about the swap and challenge failure, while James perviously talked about his relationship with Mike, and also about the hardships of moving from South Korea to the U.S. Both good scenes, and both add to the mystery of this vote.

Tribal Council gives away little as well. We get some good “sound-byte tennis”, with the debate between voting out challenge threats and saving strength and loyalty getting bounced around. Nothing spectacular, but it’s a good debate that keeps the audience engaged. Though, when did James become a “challenge threat”? The only time he’s ever been shown in a challenge, it was LOSING IT! He’s like Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”). We’re TOLD that he’s strong, but we get basically no evidence to back it up.

We do get one stand out fun moment at Tribal Council, though. To wrap things up prior to the vote, Probst asks whether these players follow their head or their heart when making decisions. Mike says heart, Desi, Angela, and James say head, but Kellyn gives the cheeky answer of “gut”. Not sure I follow her logic on that being a good thing to follow (see van den Berghe, Lex, of “Survivor Africa”), but I love a cheeky, third-option answer to a Probst question.

Not only does James turn out to be doomed, he turns out to be REALLY doomed. Even Mike votes against him. As I said, it’s the right decision, and I’m not super sorry to see him go. I liked the guy ok, but he didn’t bring a lot to the game, and Desi has more personality. I will say this for the guy, though: He takes it exceptionally well. Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a politer blindside victim. That’s a very big feather in his cap, if you ask me.

After what seems to be a stumble, this season is back on track with possibly the best episode yet! Great mystery! Great strategy! A fun challenge! People making the right decision at the end! All marks of a great show. Hope this trend continues.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Ghost Island” Episode 4: Hasa Diga Eebowai

It occurs to me that, in the Venn Diagram of “‘Survivor’ Fans” and “Show Tunes Fans”, the middle consists exclusively of myself and Wanda Shirk (“Survivor Palau”). As such, an explanation of the title of this blog is in order. The phrase “Hasa Diga Eebowai” comes from the musical “The Book of Mormon”, and is basically the anti-“Hakuna Matata”. Rather than being a carefree song about leaving one’s worries behind, “Hasa Diga Eebowai”, in the made-up language for the show, translates as “Fuck You God”. Without spoiling the boot, this should give you an idea of how I feel about how this episode went down. Speaking of which, let’s talk about that.

Our “Previously On…” segment is worth mentioning, as it clarifies something that was not made clear last episode: Did Mike playing the idol “Reverse the Curse”? Normally, the logical answer would be “Of course not! Idols need to be SUCCESSFULLY played to un-curse them.” However, I feel like James’ idol might be an exception, since his wasn’t a MISPLAYED idol, but an UN-PLAYED idol. Successful or not, the idol fulfilled it’s intended usage, as far as being played goes. However, the show takes the side of logic, and Mike got nailed by the “curse” once again.

Speaking of which, let’s take a moment to appreciate the sweet spot the marketing team is in by making the requirements to “Reverse the Curse” so steep. If someone succeeds in playing an idol this season, great! You’ve got a killer tv moment, and that person earns the accolades associated with “Reversing the Curse”. If they don’t? You build up the “cursed” myth more and more, thus whipping people into more of a frenzy for when it DOES happen. There’s a no-lose situation for you.

Mike, of course, is the man of the hour for his grandstanding at Tribal Council, and not undeservedly so. Despite his lie not working in the end, Mike still made a pretty brilliant game move there. Of course, he also shot himself in the foot by revealing the voting target, but credit where credit is due nonetheless. And yes, I’ve seen the argument that with the numbers being so close, it was to the advantage of Mike and co. to reveal their target, but I maintain that mystery causes chaos, which causes someone to slip up, which then gives Mike and co. an opening to strategize.

Regardless, the point is that Mike is no longer considered just a strong guy from the original Malolo, but now also a strategic threat. As if it wasn’t bad enough that the original Naviti had realized this, now that the old Malolo have little recourse but to proverbially eat each other, they now vie to throw Mike under the bus. Yes, even Stephanie and Jenna get in on the game of “Praise Mike”, and you can tell from the look on his face that Mike is not pleased with this development.

But Mike’s not the only one dealing with fallout from the previous Tribal Council. Bradley was one vote away from going home, and unsurprisingly this is a wake-up call for him. Hmm, Bradley. Perhaps there’s a chance for you to redeem yourself yet. Take from this that you need to stop complaining so much and open up a bit more, and there may be hope for you yet!

Or, you know. You could take the lesson that your allies are loyal and you can keep doing what you’re doing. I mean, that’s not the WORST lesson you could take from the vote, but if your social game is so bad that the minority will vote you out of spite, I think that means it’s time to brush off the old social skills.

CHALLENGE TIME! And surprisingly, despite some reused elements, I’m a big fan of this reward challenge. In a variation on your average obstacle course, the tribes jump over a series of three tables. Once this is done, two members work to remove sandbags from around a lever. Pulling this lever drops a bunch of beanbags (and a few coconuts, as this is still “Survivor”), which must be put in a basket. Then, these beanbags must be thrown at three wind-vane type contraptions to spin them to raise three flags. First tribe with three flags wins coffee and pastries, as well as forcing the losing tribe to draw rocks for Ghost Island. And yes, this challenge draws from other season’s challenges, in particular “Survivor Tocantins” (throwing stuff to reveal flags) and “Survivor South Pacific” (sorting out stuff that gets dropped), but there’s just a cool factor to it. The spinny vane things are a neat touch, and I like the idea of needing to reveal a lever rather than just chopping a rope or something to drop the bags.

Unfortunately, this challenge is purely physical, meaning that Naviti has a guaranteed victory here. This means we can devote time to more important things, namely emphasizing how much of a jerk Chris can be sometimes. Now, cheering on your tribe at a challenge is a time-honored tradition, and can even give the competitors a psychological boost. However, telling people about proper LIFTING TECHNIQUE during a challenge seems to have the opposite effect. Yet, as Naviti falls behind at the sandbag portion the challenge (largely due to putting James, sucker of all talent, on this portion), this is exactly what Chris does. And this isn’t just some background event only I would notice. The editors go out of their way to show us Chris doing this. Thankfully, Chris is able to redeem himself slightly by being a complete boss on the vane portion of the challenge. It’s literally no contest. He gets all three flags up before Sebastian on the other side can even get a spin. That’s pretty cool, only soured slightly by Chris attempting to “rap” after the challenge. The fan community tells us that Chris is a really good rapper behind the scenes, but if this is his “talent”, the dude needs work. Maybe it’s just his description of himself as a “Diamond in the Rough” that bothers me. Words mean something. “Diamond in the Rough” usually refers to a talented person who does not appear talented. Libby is a diamond in the rough. Laurel is a diamond in the rough. Stephanie is a diamond in the rough. Chris, a man built like a Greek God, is not a diamond in the rough.

Speaking of Stephanie, she draws the white rock, and gets sent to Ghost Island as a result. Once again, we’re presented with a win-win situation, in this case relating to what Ghost Island may or may not give her. There’s room for intriguing strategy on both sides of the island this time, so the extra time devoted to that rather than Ghost Island antics would be nice. On the other hand, Stephanie is someone who could really use an advantage, which could make things more interesting should Malolo return to Tribal Council. Plus, unlike Kellyn, Stephanie really has no reason NOT to go for it. After all, she’s on the outs anyway. Who CARES if she doesn’t vote? An advantage could really help her out though.

Stephanie, however, does not see her stay on Ghost Island as a potential blessing, citing time away from the tribe dynamics as being a problem. Somewhat logical, but I’d argue that the allure of an advantage outweighs that. Plus, how much good would that extra 24 hours of socializing do? Not that being separated from the tribe is inherently a GOOD thing, but it could be worse. Sadly for Stephanie, she is denied an opportunity to play for an advantage, so instead we get to hear about her leaving her Mormon Church and divorcing her husband, and how that’s changed her. A nice enough scene, but we don’t need to know that Stephanie is one tough cookie. Her actions in this game have already done a better job of that. The best that can be said of this scene is that it gives me an excuse to use a song from “The Book of Mormon” (the musical) as the title.

As an aside, I’ve seen a number of people hating on this season in principle just because it gives the producers an excuse to throw even more twists into a game that many believe gets a bit over-inundated with twists anyway. I’m certainly on board with the idea that the producers can get a bit twist-happy, especially when it just upsets the status quo before the status can even become quo. That said, I’m optimistic that given the producers can and do show restraint, and this is an example of that. At this point, there have been fewer opportunities to get an advantage than an urn of nothing, showing that the producers aren’t just throwing in advantages willy-nilly. And you KNOW they wanted to give Stephanie a chance. An upset of the majority alliance, and a great character in Stephanie gaining more power. The producers would like nothing more than to give Stephanie an advantage. And yet they didn’t. I respect them for that.

The above paragraph can also be used as evidence that the show isn’t fake, but I’ve ranted about that already this season, so I’ll just let it lie.

Speaking of things fake, Naviti celebrates and shows off their bamboo coffee maker, which is only slightly more subtle than the stump with a plug in it from “Survivor Vanuatu”. Chris once again shows his softer side by building up the team after their victory. It’s a nice little scene, punctuated by an even nicer moment. Donathan goes off and is comforted by Laurel, due to feeling homesick. Evidently both Donathan’s mother and grandmother are coffee lovers, and as Donathan is close with both of them, he’s having a difficult time. But Laurel is not Donathan’s only comforter. Chris, though blind to his own shortcomings, is at least somewhat aware of the emotions of others. He comforts Donathan, shares his own mother’s health struggles, and the pair bond over the shared experience. Donathan admits that this makes his like Chris more, making his struggle between him, Wendell, and Domenick hard. Wow. A very sweet emotional moment that ties into the strategic and social game of all involved. What a great moment of television. What moment on Malolo could possibly top this?

None, evidently, as we’re onto our immunity challenge less than halfway through the episode. And while I would be saying that this challenge was a shoe-in for a Malolo victory, as it involves a puzzle, we know for a fact that Malolo loses. How is this? Well, if you recall last week’s “Next Time On…” preview, you’ll recall that they showed a scene of Jenna and Sebastian flirting on Malolo. Guess what scene we haven’t seen yet? And unless Malolo is as stupid as their namesake (Manono of “Survivor One World”), they’re not getting a scene post-challenge unless they lose. This was actually a mistake made last episode as well, as Stephanie’s “Hope” scene hadn’t been shown prior to the challenge, and since I forgot about it, it’s possible it could happen again here. However, it’s still a mistake to do once. Doing it twice? It’s just asking for people to call you out, and ruin the tension as I’m doing here. For as good as the editing was last episode, it made a number of gaffes this episode, this one chief among them. Come on, editors. You’ve got better game than this.

The challenge is at least semi-exciting, even if it is a repeat. Both tribes race parallel over a balance course to retrieve one of three numbers. Using a giant winch, the other tribe members pull this person back on a boogie board, with the next person following behind. Once all the numbers are retrieved, they open a lock to begin a slide puzzle spelling “Ghost Island”, and winning immunity. This is basically a “Survivor Micronesia” challenge with a puzzle tacked on, but one of the cooler “Survivor Micronesia” challenges. Plus, I like the puzzle. We’ve seen slide puzzles before, but never one that spells out something, that’s pretty neat. It also allows for a nice trick, where Malolo LOOKS to be ahead, but Naviti still wins. Though again, this trick would have worked better if we didn’t KNOW THE OUTCOME BEFORE THE END OF THE CHALLENGE! SERIOUSLY, HOW DID YOU MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE IN A ROW?

Unfortunately for the editors, they need their A-game now, and I’m just not sure they’ve got it tonight. Like last episode, we have a clear, solid majority with basically no pretense about anyone other than an original Malolo going, despite original Naviti being the challenge sinks this time (Chelsea floundering, both figuratively and literally, on the balance portion, and Kellyn and Bradley blowing the puzzle). I mean, at least last episode had an idol that could have mucked things up. Here, there’s really no way to create an upset. Thus, we fall back to the old standby: Which of the minority will be kicked off? To be fair, we do get an interesting look into how all three play their cards best to stay. Jenna, being less of a strategist than the other two, decides to play the flirt card with simple-minded Sebastian, braiding his hair and making nice-nice with him. Pretty low key, and not bad, especially as it makes her come off as less of a threat than the other two. Gritting their teeth (doubtless to prevent from throwing up), Stephanie and Mike both kiss up to Bradley, promising loyalty should he let them stay. It’s disingenuous from both of them, though I’d argue Stephanie makes it look more convincing than Mike.

Fortunately for the edit, even Naviti has trouble making up their mind. Jenna is quickly thrown out as an option, but Stephanie and Mike are both big threats, and so the debate comes down to them. Mike is the more obvious threat, due to both his physical and strategic nature, but Stephanie is a more subtle schemer. The debate goes back and forth, with no clear winner. Desi even gets the bright idea to check through Stephanie’s bag for an advantage, finding nothing. Unfortunately for Stephanie, an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and so the prospect of an advantage is still out there.

The good news about Tribal Council is that I don’t know who specifically is going home. The bad news is, I know it won’t be exciting. It’s another case of the majority predictably voting out the minority, with not even good Tribal Council banter to make it interesting. The best I can say is that both Stephanie and Mike get tearful confessionals, both before and at Tribal Council, about not wanting to leave the game, thus keeping things at least semi-mysterious.

In the end, the axe falls on Stephanie, and I am PISSED! A lot of the characters who’ve left so far this season had potential, but Stephanie was maybe the one who surpassed all expectations. She proved to be a mover and shaker early on, and really seemed to be the one calling the shots. And then robbed of doing exceptionally well, because of a tribe swap. I know, I know, it’s part of the game, but we’ve SEEN people show their true potential on returning. Look at Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”). Screwed by a tribe swap, and never really did much to merit a return. Bring her back though, and she’s a force to be reckoned with. That, I feel, is what we’ve lost in Stephanie. All due respect to Mike. He’s a good, well-rounded character as well. But Stephanie, in my opinion, played it better, and it’s more intriguing to see an “older” (by “Survivor” standards) woman do well than a young, athletic guy, even if he is a decent liar.

That said, I can agree with Naviti for choosing her. Both she and Mike would have been good targets, but when push comes to shove, I probably would have advocated voting out Stephanie as well. Mike is more of a threat physically, but he’s also more obviously a threat period. It’s much easier to rally people against him than against Stephanie. Plus, Stephanie seemed to be the uniter of old Malolo, with Brendan exiting last episode. Getting rid of her sinks the old Malolo’s chances, far more than Mike’s exit would have. As a fan, though? Would much prefer to have seen Mike go. He’s just less interesting.

This episode is not very good. Easily the first misstep of the season. And yet, it is still not without redeeming value. While the editing was sloppy, the episode poorly paced, and the vote kind of dull, some things you just can’t help (the latter point being a perfect example). Plus, for all the negative, we did get a few real human moments that connect us to the cast, such as the Chris/Donathan moment. In other words, this episode is bad, but not irredeemably bad. Still, show, you’re wearing us thin on building up these plots with no payoff. Give us some next episode!

Oh? You’re switching tribes? Again? Yay…

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Ghost Island” Episode 3: The Music Meister

Real talk time: “Survivor” is a niche fandom. Much as we may overall be a fun and supportive community, there’s no use denying the fact that we’re not exactly the height of “cool” or “popular” at this point (if we ever were). As such, there are a few annoying questions and comments a “Survivor” fan can expect when they reveal their fandom. “That show’s still on?” comes to mind. Close behind that, though, is “Isn’t that show fake?” Given the reputation that reality tv has, it’s an understandable statement, and one that earns ire from the fandom. After all, short of maybe the first season, the producers don’t really have much influence on the outcome. That said, we’re also deluding ourselves if we say that what’s on the tv is 100% real. The events may have happened, but they’re skewed by the editors into something more or less exciting. Lest you believe the editors have no influence on an episode, look no further than this most recent episode, wherein the editors turn an otherwise humdrum boot into an exciting roller coaster ride.

After using the “Previously On…” segment to further the character assassination of Bradley, we return to Naviti, where Domenick and Chris must deal with the fallout of their move. They handle being on the bottom decently well, what with saying it was a good move and not being bitter. However, their attempts to start up strategy talk are pretty well shot down, and Angela for one is pissed at their betrayal. Great job getting the person thinking of working with you to now side 100% with your enemy, guys!

Just to pile on the “royally screwed”, Domenick and Wendell go off for their own strategy session, and take stock of what they have. Angela? Now against them. The Malolo Four? Assuming they side with Chris, in control. Their chances after tonight? Practically zero, but not quite there yet. To their credit, they try and keep an upbeat attitude, with Domenick rightly pointing out that since the old Naviti fractured when they were in power, it’s entirely possible that Malolo will do the same thing. Plus, they still have one card to play: Domenick’s idol, which he lets Wendell in on. Normally I’m against sharing too much idol information, but it makes sense here. After all, if Wendell isn’t kept in the loop, he may throw you under the bus. Plus, with fewer options at this point, Wendell seems trustworthy enough.

Slightly strengthening the pair’s arsenal (unless you believe in these “curses” CBS keeps trying to sell us on) is the legacy advantage, which Morgan willed to Domenick. Doesn’t do him much good now, but it does keep his spirits up, and every little bit helps, I guess.

Cutting over to our reward challenge, we see that’s it a physical repeat. One pair from each tribe (gender-matched), will race to get a life ring, and drag it near enough their team-colored pole to touch both pole and ring at the same time. Doing so scores a point, with the first tribe to three points wining sandwiches. Those knowledgable in “Survivor history will recognize that this challenge first appeared on “Survivor Palau”, though this form of the same concept first appeared on “Survivor Caramoan”. The more casual among us will remember that this is the challenge where Michaela lost her bra and Probst got bowled over by the ocean on “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, helped because it even takes place at the same location. I’m of two minds about this. On the one hand, this season so far has been very puzzle-heavy, and while I enjoy puzzles, it’s good to shake things up from time to time. On the other hand, I wish we got an ORIGINAL pure physical challenge. It’s not even like this is a cursed challenge, like Schmergenbrawl from “Survivor Samoa” or something.

You may recall that the only reason Malolo won the last challenge was because of the puzzle. Thus, it’s no surprise that Naviti takes this, though Malolo puts up a good fight. Really, the only lopsided victory was the first round, where Wendell and Chris (newly returned from Ghost Island) manage to outstrategize the other tribe, such that they never get a hand on the thing. All the other rounds are brawls over the ring, though, with Malolo pulling out one win, but brawls by Laurel and Libby giving the win to Naviti. To further the editor’s credit, they make the end of the challenge particularly exciting. One can usually tell when a victory is nigh by the swelling of dramatic music when someone is close to a goal. Here, however, they do it twice. Both times for Libby, but the first time she misses, upping the tension considerably. Remember this technique. It will be abused later.

This win also gives them the right to send someone to Ghost Island, for once not sparing them from a Tribal Council. Nice to see that that was not a permanent feature. Once again, strategic discussion is brushed aside in favor of drawing rocks. As Probst passes around the bag, Kellyn gets a close up and comment about Ghost Island. Naturally, Kellyn ends up going. See, producers, it’s incidents like this that mean the fans of your show keep needing to defend it from the “fake” charge.

Keeping up with Kellyn, it seems that three cycles would be just too much for the producers to handle. There’s an advantage to be won, and disappointingly it’s the same gamble that Jacob had when he won his advantage. While I get why this was kept the same for fairness reasons, it would have been really interesting to see people have to play different games for the advantages. Sort of a mini-challenge, if you will.

That said, Kellyn’s debate is much more straightforward than Jacob’s. While Jacob was in the minority, and needed a miracle to save his behind, Kellyn is in the majority, albeit a slim one. While an advantage could POTENTIALLY shore up the majority, it could also be something like another legacy advantage that’s not really a big help. Plus, one has to consider the cost. While Jacob voting vs. not voting would have changed little, with such a slim majority on Malolo, Kellyn’s vote has more individual value than Jacob’s did. On the whole, I’d say the risk is too great, but given that the producers are trying to force this as the “BIG MOVES” era of “Survivor”, and how much Kellyn is buying into the “curse” hype, there’s a chance that she’ll do it.

Thankfully, smart Kellyn wins out, chooses not to go for the gamble, and thus earns my respect. With no advantage to explain, the producers have to fall back on that old standby, character development. Oh no! Kellyn gets to explain about all those changes in her life, and how the lesson she’s taken from them is to trust her gut. It’s a nice scene from a woman I respect. Good for her.

Naviti is, of course, celebrating, but Chris is more interested in information. Correctly deducing that Morgan being gone means his alliance is in power, he confers with Angela. Filled in on the plot to take out Angela, Chris recognizes that this was a coup attempt against him. He refers to Domenick as a “strategic mastermind”, thereby proving that Chris has a very liberal definition of “strategic mastermind”. While by no means the dumbest person ever to appear on the show, Domenick has made (and, as we’ll soon see, will continue to make) very questionable moves. I’m still having trouble figuring out why it was smart to show Chris your fake idol, and revealing said idol to the old Malolo on your tribe backfired horribly.

Chris, however, is his own worst enemy. He tries to make nice with Malolo, and seems to say all the right words. Unfortunately they don’t come across as genuine, and Chris’ personality continues to work against him. Laurel and Donathan walk off together, and discuss the current plan: split votes between Wendell and Domenick, just in case of an idol, thereby targeting Wendell in the process. However, both Laurel and Donathan both agree that they like Wendell, certainly more than they like Chris. And that, my friends, shows the brilliance of my man Wendell. I was pretty disappointed with the guy last episode. Dude was wrong most of the time, and seems to be letting Domenick make all the decisions (which, if I haven’t made it clear, is a poor idea). This episode, however, shows that his strength lies not in his strategic game, but in his social game. Wendell has very few people to blame but himself for being on the bottom. What’s getting him out of there is just how likable he is. It goes to show the hardcore strategists (myself included) that sometimes all it takes is a good social game to change things around. Wendell has done next to nothing, and yet now people want to work with him.

Granted, Chris’ negativity probably helped in this case, and it’s also in the best interest of the old Malolo to get out Chris. After all, one fractured vote does not destroy the whole of Naviti, and if they just stick with Chris, it’s possible to just eliminate all of Chris’ enemies, and just have Naviti reform at the merge. By flipping back and forth, the old Malolo keep Naviti’s eyes trained on themselves, not on Malolo, which works out better for Malolo in the long run.

Bringing Domenick’s premonition true, Laurel and Donathan approach him and Wendell, respectively, about the possibility of a flip. This is pretty much a sack of money dropping in their laps. Domenick proverbially burns that sack by telling Laurel about his idol in gratitude. This confirms to Laurel that Domenick is a liar, something she tells him to his face. Way to make people want to work with you there, Domenick!

In keeping with the theme of reused challenges for this episode, we have a COMBO reused challenge for Immunity, and a combo from seasons we’ve seen already this episode at that. Our first part comes from “Survivor Caramoan” where the teams must swim out to a cage and open a gate to pull a crate back to shore. They must then move the crate along a track (using a rope to grapple sections of the track along the way) to the end. Here’s where “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” comes into play, as the teams must toss said balls to balance on a thin pair of boards, with the first team to get all five balls winning immunity. My opinion here is exactly the same as on the reward challenge: nice to be getting something other than a puzzle, but it would have been nice to have something original.

Sadly for the producers, misdirection is not something this challenge has going for it. Kelly aside, we’ve heard NOTHING from Malolo this episode, and a lot of strategy from Naviti. Hence, Naviti will go to Tribal Council. It doesn’t help matters that Naviti falls way behind here, first by Chris having difficulty untying the gate (you will note that it’s Wendell who gets the job done), then not having the crate in the track evenly, THEN when they do grapple their section of track, only Chris and Wendell pulling it initially. There’s uncoordinated, and then there’s the Morgan Tribe in a Panamanian village. This is the latter.

Thankfully for tension’s sake, putting those balls on the boards is a difficulty job, giving Naviti time to at least make it a tense showdown. Adding to this, the editors, evidently having realized how well this trick worked in the reward challenge, play the dramatic “about to win” music four times, thus REALLY keeping us in suspense. Once again, the music is the crucial factor here. And even though we all know Naviti will lose, thanks to screentime, it works. Hell, it even seems LOGICAL when Naviti pulls the biggest come-from-behind victory since Kass won immunity on “Survivor Cagayan”! Wait…

Yes, folks, as I’m about to talk about at length, we are in another “Jeremy Collins” (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) situation. For those who don’t remember (or have wiped it from their memories), Jeremy Collins was blindsided on his initial season, not just in the game, but to the audience, with the only indicator of his exit being one aside during a conversation between Jon and Missy. I was not pleased with it. While it certainly did the job of “hiding the boot” effectively, it also left us confused and disappointed. This is what’s happened here and it’s the biggest misstep of the episode. Granted, up until the very end, it was hard to see the Naviti win coming. But now, apart from building for the future, it feels like we wasted time, and have to start the episode all over again. I know, I know, it’s a tricky balancing act to both give enough evidence as to who the boot is going to be and hide it from the audience anyway, but it’s been done successfully in the past. Sure, savvy fans now know the tricks and can predict around them, but you’re clever, guys! I’m sure you can come up with something that fools all of the people some of the time.

Probst praises Naviti for never giving up, a sentiment I have to laugh at, since Probst himself clearly had given up on Naviti several times during this challenge. Just wanted to take a moment to point out the hypocricy.

To add on to the insanity, I can at least justify the Jeremy incident slightly by arguing that there it was done to hide the target. Here, it’s CLEARLY obvious that Bradley is going to be the boot. As if it wasn’t enough that the comeback of Malolo was touted so heavily in the last episode, AND that the “Previously On…” segment made it clear how annoying Bradley was being, we pile on that message, both by having Kellyn express confidence in an old Naviti victory after the challenge, but also have Bradley FURTHER dig himself a hole via overconfidence. The dude compares himself to Boston Rob (“Survivor Marquesas”) and Kim Spradlin (“Survivor One World”). That’s not exactly being humber. Granted, I can’t say yet if he’s strategically up to their level yet, but Bradley seems to forget that both of these players partly succeeded by having a cult of personality around them (Boston Rob by being a celebrity amongst a bunch of newbies, Kim by just being that good). Bradley is clearly not up to par with their social game.

To be fair, that’s not all we see after the challenge. Brendan attempts to give a pep talk, and convince the new Malolo that they’re the stronger tribe. Sorry, Brendan, but the evidence does not support you there. The new Malolo has smoked you in virtually every physical aspect (save the start of that last challenge), and the only reason you won anything as a puzzle. Point being, a tribe that blows that big a lead can’t really be called “the strongest” if you ask me.

But this segment isn’t about bashing Brendan, it’s about bashing Bradley! And Bradley himself gets in on the bashing, insulting Brendan’s pep talks (can’t say I disagree with him, but it still came across as harsh). This leads into the old Naviti deciding who to target. In a smart move, they agree to go for one of the strong guys. Without a supermajority to split the votes with, they need to pick the person who’s least likely to get the idol played on them. Normally, that would be one of the “weaker” people, but that’s become such an obvious move that now things have swung back around to where the stronger people are less obvious. The debate thus comes down to Mike or Brendan. Most of the group seems to favor Mike, with Desi being the only dissenting vote, saying that Brendan, as a leader, should go next. Knowing what we know as the audience, Desi is correct. On the original Malolo, Brendan was pretty much crowned leader from the beginning. He was the one keeping them together, and if you get rid of him, Malolo is the weaker for it. That said, Naviti DOESN’T know what we know, and this explains why I can’t be too hard on them for targeting Mike. He’s the most obviously strong guy, and therefore getting him off would, on the surface, seem a larger blow. Neither of them’s a bad choice, Brendan’s just a slightly stronger one. Also, it must be mentioned that during this conversation Sebastian compares Mike and Brendan to penguins. Cute, Sebastian. That makes up for your erroneous belief that banana Laffy Taffy is the best.

Of course, we know that will be for naught, since Bradley’s clearly going home. After further driving in how much of a jerk he seems (his bluntness in a conversation with Stephanie makes her cry), we see that Mike has revealed his idol to his former tribemates. Not being an idiot, Mike intends to use it one someone, thus giving them a 25% chance of success. Unfortunately for the old Naviti, it seems Mike and Brendan missed the memo about the strong guy no longer being the obvious targets, and act like they’ll use it on one of them, as both a paranoid. Thankfully, Mike makes up for this by working to increase their odds. An idol, when shown, produces paranoia, and can therefore get those on the bottom to flip. Mike intends to use Tribal Council as theatre to hopefully fracture the Naviti alliance, and thus save his allies in the long term.

It’s a good thing Mike has his plan, because MAN ALIVE the Naviti members here are bad at Tribal Council. Not a ONE of them makes an effort to hide their majority, and most of them do it in a very non-diplomatic fashion.

Things heat up when Mike interrupts a comment from Desi (not cool, man), to pull out an idol, stating that he’s learned from James (“Survivor China”), and intends to play it. Furthering his cause, he appeals to those who he perceives to be on the bottom (Sebastian and Chelsea) (Yes, I’m sure there’s a Chelsea) that the Naviti won’t take them to the end, and that now is the time to make a flip. Appealing to the producers, he references “Big Moves”. Mike even throws in a good lie of his own, saying that, due to it being James’ idol, it works on two people, thereby upping the paranoia amongst the others. After all, it’s a plausible lie that would fit with the item in question. Had it worked, I would daresay that was a brilliant lie! Unfortunately for Mike, his first mistake is learning too much from “Survivor China” and not enough from “Survivor Caramoan”. If this move strikes you as similar to Malcolm’s play on that season, then you’re like me. Here, Mike makes the same mistake that Malcolm does, namely naming a target. On “Survivor”, the information you don’t give is sometimes a more powerful weapon than the information you share. Fear of the unknown can be a big incentive for people to flip. If you don’t reveal a target, it’s likely someone will flip to prevent it from being them. By revealing the target, you remove a lot of the incentive for people to flip. After all, if Sebastian and Chelsea ARE on the bottom, what do they care if you vote for Bradley (their intended target)? If he’s gone, well, it makes their life easier. It incentivizes BRADLEY to flip the game, but given that a tie vote is bad for him, he’s unlikely to do so. Granted, it still makes for great theatre, particularly as Bradley does a bad job of defending himself. Thankfully, he has Kellyn there, who states the smart, damage-control statements like “How do we know they’re telling the truth?” and “Where would you be with Malolo?” Again, Kellyn gains respect points. Still, Mike, things probably would have been better if you’d kept the target a mystery. I can see the counterargument that this could lead to a tie, but a tie for Malolo still works in their favor, and that’s not factoring in their 25% chance of playing the idol correctly.

Speaking of which, while Bradley seems more dead than the Republican’s chances of holding the House of Representatives in the upcoming election (this blog sure as hell won’t be dated in six months, no sir!), the episode has at least given us a bit of mystery. Not so much as to who’s going, but as to how. The idol play seems most obvious, but with Mike’s theatre, it’s now possible that there may be a flip instead. That at least makes for some dramatic intrigue, though it would be better with the awesome music (ok, so the music this episode wasn’t 100% fantastic).

We seem to get our answer as Mike and Brendan converse while Probst tallies the votes. We know Mike is the intended target, but the pair think Stephanie is likely to receive votes. After fake playing the idol for himself and Brendan, Mike gives the idol to Stephanie, and thus guarantees a flip from either Sebastian or Chelsea (presumably Sebastian, since we got an overhead shot of his voting confessional). Sure enough, the vote is down to 4-4. In a nice surprise, Naviti does the smart thing and goes for Brendan. The last vote is turned and it’s… BRENDAN?

Ok, before I get to the complaining (or lack thereof), I have to say, I’m not too sorry to see Brendan go. Bradley may be somewhat annoying, but at least he has personality. Brendan is the smart move, not that interesting as a character, and while I feel bad for the guy (he was so passionate in his closing words), I think it was the smart move. That said, WHERE THE HELL DID THIS COME FROM? My God, everything was building up to Mike being the hero who saves himself and Bradley going home. If you thought the challenge was a jarring turn, it’s got nothing on the vote! Jeremy Collins situation for sure!

That said, I actually don’t mind it as much here, for a couple of reasons. One is just simple fan bias. Jeremy was my favorite on his first season, and so I was mad that he left, especially since all the interesting people had left at that point (no, Natalie Anderson wasn’t interesting until AFTER Jeremy left. Quit deluding yourselves). On more objective notes, though, I can forgive this one a bit more. The big reason is necessity. Look at this episode on paper: What happened? A majority alliance stayed in power and took out the biggest threat in the minority. That’s about as stock and boring an episode as you can get. Building up an obvious outcome, only to go away from it to create drama where there is none I can understand. Jeremy’s boot was a shift in power, and thus required more explanation. Second of all, the fact that this episode airs earlier mitigates things slightly. It’s early days. Storylines are still building, and like with Chris, I think Brendan is dead meat. It’s so early on, I can understand the buildup without immediate payoff.

That said, that only works for so long, show. Eventually you have to start delivering on some of these storylines, or else your audience gets fed up.

To be clear, I actually like this episode a LOT. There was good strategy, and clever editing (particularly the music) was able to create drama where there was none, as a good episode should. That said, this misses out on the “great” category for the methods it used, as I think I’ve detailed this blog. More justifiable here, but still not good practices overall, and I don’t want to see them become standard. Still, I have hope. Perhaps the next episode can build to an even higher level than before, without the need for such trickery.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Ghost Island” Episode 1: One Bad Decision Can Haunt You Forever

Come on in guys! Welcome back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! It is time for us to begin our episodic look at season 36, aka “Survivor One Bad Decision Can Haunt You Forever”, where one bad decision can haunt you forever. As we all know, one bad decision can haunt you forever, so it’s important that you remember that one bad decision can haunt you forever. And did we mention that one bad decision can haunt you forever?

Oh, I’m sorry, did you find the repetition of that phrase to be incredibly annoying and patronizing? TOO BAD! This is a two-hour premier, and we’re taking advantage of it by repeating this phrase another 187 times!

Ok, ok, so that’s more of a fault of the opening than it is a fault of the episode as a whole, but when you repeat the phrase three times in as many minutes, it gets a bit wearing. “Reverse the Curse” is also in danger of encountering the same problem, but since it’s at least a shorter phrase, and its appearances were more spread-out, it is somewhat more tolerable.

Vehicle porn is for once NOT the order of the day during our introduction. Nor is the location, though that may have something to do with the fact that this season takes place in FREAKING FIJI! AGAIN! Look, I get that it’s a beautiful location that fits well within the “Survivor” infrastructure, and after last season took place there, this one was guaranteed to do so as well, but the lack of variety is really becoming a damper on my enjoyment. PLEASE let the rumors of going to Papua New Guinea next season be true, however unlikely it is.

Well, with neither vehicles nor location to focus on, we’re left with the twist, that of the titular Ghost Island. We’re given some brief flashbacks of the “mistakes of the past”, before talking about how our new group will have to play using these former items so as to break their “curse”. Like I’ve said before, not a terrible idea, but one that would fit better on a returnee season, since people would be guaranteed to know a lot about most of these items, and avoid the pitfall of “Huh, I wonder what this thing was?” We are spared such a hilarious yet painful confessional this episode, and due to notes coming with items, it’s unlikely to happen, but I’m still wary.

After being introduced to the Malolo and Naviti tribes (and thank God for once I don’t have to rant about how I’m not calling them by their division names), we cut right down to business with another twist. This one comes to us courtesy of “Survivor Samoa”. Clearly we’re pulling from nothing but the finest stock this time around! Actually, the twist starts out like “Survivor Samoa”, but builds on it. Both tribes are asked to select a leader for this particular challenge. Malolo, after conferring for a bit, chooses Brendan. Not a bad choice. The dude seems paternal, knowledgeable in challenge areas, and gives his tribe enough freedom in the decision to name him to not seem like a dictator. The same cannot be said for Naviti. The second they look at Chris, he’s all for it, showing you how much his head is actually in the game. Look, being the overt leader like this on “Survivor” is very tempting. Controlling your own fate seems like the way to go. And true, being a leader, in and of itself, is not a bad thing. It is the word “overt” that is the problem here. Heads that are readily visible tend to get lopped off on “Survivor”, and as we’ll soon see, I doubt Chris will be an exception to this.

Our new leaders are now asked to pick people for a challenge, one to run, and one to puzzle. Brendan goes first, and again, measuredly takes his time with both choices. First, he selects Michael to run, then Laurel to puzzle. Neither is an overtly bad choice. Michael is built, and Laurel gives off the air of being smart, so hard to argue with those. Chris, once again, acts on impulse, another sign that his head, and soon to be the rest of him, is out of the game. His quick pick to run is Sebastian, which admittedly is a good impulsive choice. I don’t think consideration would have changed anything here. But then he picks Desi for the puzzle. Now, don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing outwardly to indicate Desi would be a bad puzzle solver, but he really seems to put no thought into the decision, and as Desi admits, she’s not a good puzzle solver. Plus, he had Bradley wearing his glasses right there, and as we all know, glasses make people look smarterer.

Since being named as a leader didn’t pile on the “Royally Screwed”, enough, Probst now explains what the tribes are playing for. You see, supplies at camp are low. REALLY low. One pot, one machete, and a wine bottle of rice (no wine, unfortunately). I mean this is some “Survivor All-Stars” level of deprivation, and unlike that season, I doubt these players will be able to whine their way to more supplies. Fortunately, this challenge is a chance to win some helpful items. There’s fishing gear for both tribes, but only the winning tribe will get theirs, along with shelter-building supplies. However, because the producers have evidently learned SOME lessons from “Survivor All-Stars”, there is a way to mitigate disaster. As soon as once tribe starts the puzzle, a timer begins counting down. At any time until the timer stops, any leader can dramatically forfeit the challenge by dropping the puzzle. If they do so, they save their fishing gear, but the other tribe wins everything, PLUS twenty eggs and flint for fire. This, for me, is what saves this twist. While it was never going to be the worst, singling out the “leaders” this way kind of rubbed me the wrong way. However, the sheer amount of choice, leading to good strategy and debates, is enough to save it for me. Plus, the leader role WON’T be forced into everything like it was on “Survivor Samoa”, so that’s a plus.

At the outset, Chris’ one good decision so far seems to work. Michael and Sebastian stay even for the most part, but by the third and final lap, Sebastian has pulled fairly far ahead. Sadly, everyone quickly realizes Desi hails from the Tony Vlachos (“Survivor Cagayan”), school of puzzle solving, a school whose motto is “Wing it and see what happens!” Unsurprisingly, this strategy does not do well against the methodical Laurel, and Chris, in what is probably the only unquestionably good decision of the whole thing, pulls the plug at the last minute. He showed his faith in Desi, but when it was clear that faith was misplaced, he made the only call he could. Better to have fishing gear and let the others have fire that to proverbially cut off your nose to spite your face.

That won’t stop him from getting shit, though. Most everyone on the tribe realizes Chris’ blunder, but only the blunt Domenick is willing to openly call him on it. Not saying Domenick is wrong in this case, but in a game like this, based on stealth and subtlety, being so blunt is unlikely to get you anywhere fast, except for Ponderosa.

For once, we actually get to see the essential scene of the tribes introducing themselves to their tribemates. I have to admit, I didn’t realize how much I missed it until I saw it again. We haven’t really had a proper one of these since “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X”, and it makes for a lovely pair of scenes. Don’t get me wrong, I like the strategy talk a lot, but it was nice for a second to let these people sit and be people. Granted a bit of strategy did leak into both scenes. On Malolo, Michael lies and tells people he’s 23 (which, given his looks, he can definitely get away with), when he’s really 18, but that’s stuff that would be naturally relevant regardless. We also hear about how Gonzales is tougher than she appears to be, and more used to this environment. The big moment, though, is Donathan. He talks for a bit about the difficulties of being a gay man from small-town Kentucky, but does it in a very genuine way. Hell, he manages to find humor in the whole thing, commenting to Laurel that “You can’t find a good man in Kentucky.” Ok, that’s a good line. He also talks about how eye opening it is to interact with people like Laurel (who’s African-American), and James (who’s Asian-American), since he mostly sees white people in his area. Again, a line that could easily be forced and cliched, but Donathan manages to pull it off in a genuine way, and it really helps me connect with these people.

Naviti are a bit more impersonal (though we do learn about Wendell’s business, and Chris’ life changes), but that’s because they have grudges to get to. Chris, being at least aware enough to realize that Domenick calling out his decision-making means he probably has a mark on his back, sets out to do something about said mark. Unfortunately, said impulsive something is again a misfire. Chris, being a big, brawny guy, decides to team up with the other big, brawny guy, Sebastian. Even leaving aside the poor math skills here for a second, this runs up against the issues that TEAMING UP WITH OTHER BIG, BRAWNY GUYS MAKES YOU ALL TARGETS! HOW IS THIS IN ANY WAY A SMART IDEA? Yes, in case it wasn’t obvious Chris is our first boot, let me say it now: Chris is our first boot.

Don’t believe me? Here’s the only strategy talk we get at Malolo. Jacob, not being the most brawny guy out there, recognizes he might be in trouble. Being a student of the game, Jacob naturally works to form bonds with the other less-scrawny people to for a coalition against the strong… Or he goes and looks for the idol and alienates himself. Why does this keep happening to superfans? I get that the idol is alluring, but idols do not win “Survivor”. Social bonds do. Focus on those first, idols later, especially when you can just casually idol hunt without suspicion while collecting wood. To Jacob’s credit, he at least realizes his mistake, but rather than try and form bonds to fix it, instead just whines about it and continues his hunt. Perhaps that ship had sailed by that point, but I still feel like something else could have been done. I do have to admire his ingenuity, though. Recognizing that the bottle of rice would be a good place to hide a clue, Jacob looks through it by tying off his sock to the end of the bottle, and dumping the rice in it too look. Gross, but not a bad plan. Plus, we get to admire Jacob’s sweet monkey socks in the process. I don’t know why, but I love those things.

Contrast this with Naviti, where strategy seems more the order of the day. After hearing again about how Wendell followed his passion with furniture making, we see that he and Domenick are bonding over their mutual love of building things. Wendell thinks he might be a good ally due to this bond, which isn’t horrible logic. Granted, I’m usually AGAINST making alliances with people who are so blatant about their thoughts as Domenick is, but given Wendell’s current options, he’s not bad. At least Domenick thinks through his positions. The impulsive Chris and Sebastian are more likely to get you in trouble, so when Sebastian comes up to Wendell to get him on the anti-Domenick agenda, Wendell’s not exactly on board with the idea. After taking a moment to bask in the fact that my man Wendell is doing well at putting himself in the middle (in case I didn’t make it clear, while I have a soft spot for Jacob as my doppelganger, Wendell is my favorite on the season. He’s just so charming), he loses a slight bit of respect by playing off the situation somewhat poorly. Rather than just noncommittally go along with it, Wendell says he likes Domenick, and suggests that Sebastian “keep thinking”. Granted, there are ruder ways to get out of an alliance, but it still seems pretty clear that Wendell is not with Sebastian and Chris, which should tip them off that something’s amiss. Fortunately, they don’t, and Wendell uses this information to bond with Domenick, hoping it will help him down the line.

Down the line may be sooner than he thinks, as it’s CHALLENGE TIME! Despite drawing from the pool of despair that is “Survivor Samoa”, this is again a good challenge. After lifting up a few tribemates to untie ropes, tribes then pull a platform back and forth to transport puzzle pieces from one side of the course to another. Then, said puzzle must be assembled, with the first tribe to do so winning immunity (and fire, if they’re Naviti). While the puzzle itself originally hails from “Survivor Thailand”, overall the structure resembles the first immunity challenge from “Survivor Samoa”, so that’s where I say the inspiration comes from. Since said “Survivor Samoa” challenge was pretty cool, I’m happy. It’s mostly about teamwork, keeps the tribe together by and large, and hauling large crates is cool-looking. I should also give credit to the innovation of not just pulling the crate one way, but doing it back and forth. That’s a nice twist on the classic.

This also gives us two reveals: the immunity idol, and the fact that the art department is clearly not trying anymore. I guess the “Survivor Millennials vs. Gen-X” idol was technically worse looking, but this is your basic tiki with a couple skulls carved in the top. Effort is a thing, guys, you should try it sometime.

To make up for the lack of misdirection from the strategy, Naviti gives an incredibly impressive challenge performance, particularly as they’re presumably operating on no water. They manage to haul their platform a lot faster than Malolo, in part because they do the actually smart thing of RUNNING with their rope and letting momentum help them along. But you just know it’s all going to fall apart on the puzzle. Yep, there’s Laurel, making a comeback and… Wait, why is Probst saying “Naviti, wins immunity!”

Ok, show, I’m HAPPY you pulled the wool over my eyes, but now a lot of this time feels a bit wasted. We couldn’t have gotten a BIT of strategy from Malolo earlier? To be fair, it seems like there really was no strategy apart from “Get out Jacob” up until that point, but the fact remains that now everything shifted gears so suddenly, I got whiplash. Jacob’s in kind of a bad state as well, given the state of his face. He gave it his all, even in terms of smack talk, still boasting about how Malolo will be the best tribe in the history of forever, despite their loss. But it was all an actually clever ploy, for you see, Naviti gets to send one member of Malolo to Ghost Island, allowing them to avoid Tribal Council. Having found no idol, Jacob made himself look a bit of an ass so as to get sent. Of course, most people would recognize this, and go against that wish. Personally, I favor the Ken Hoang (“Survivor Gabon”) strategy of “send the survival wimp so they may quit. Unfortunately, this tribe still contains Chris, and so Jacob’s strategy works.

Give credit to the editors for one thing: they go all in on the whole “Ghost Island” thing. They cut around like it’s a horror movie, cutting around to shots of various spooky-looking “Survivor” artifacts, and also the immunity idol from “Survivor China”. It’s fortunate that Jacob of all people was the first one sent, since while some of these so-called “superfans” can be questioned, Jacob is a true dyed-in-the-wool fan, and his googly-eyed faking of the snuffers in particular is just as fun as you think it would be.

Moving on to business, Jacob smashes an urn (boringly, he goes for the first one in line, though as the second person to go to Ghost Island smashes the second one, I guess it’s a rule that they must be smashed in order), and is told to follow the fire. At the end of said fire is an offer of a gamble for Jacob. He has a 50/50 choice of two bamboo chutes. One has a key that will unlock a third shoot with an advantage. The other will cost him his vote at the next Tribal Council. Talk about your high stakes! This is actually a real dilemma. An unknown advantage is powerful, but a 50/50 shot is still not great odds, even on “Survivor”, and the reward for losing is so high, it’s genuinely worth not taking the chance, especially if you happen to be in the majority. Jacob, thankfully, is both a superfan, and in the minority, so he goes for it. I can’t complain too much, as while I think building social bonds is better, Jacob is clearly in the doghouse with his tribe right now, and so just needs any advantage he can. Worst case scenario, I don’t think his vote loss changes anything, but an unknown advantage could.

Luckily for Jacob, he picks correctly, and opens the chute to get his advantage. But what could be so powerful that it’s worth risking a vote over. A vote steal? An extra vote? A free super idol? No, in fact, when we find out what it is, it’s really not worth it. Jacob inherits Sierra’s legacy advantage, courtesy of “Survivor Game Changers”. Because when you want to appeal to long-time “Survivor” fans, you start things off with referencing “Survivor Game Changers”. Don’t get me wrong, the legacy advantage is fine in and of itself, but for someone in Jacob’s position, it’s practically useless. With limited times it can be played, it works best in the hands of someone in power, not someone in the minority like Jacob. But it would be bad enough if it were an advantage Jacob was unlikely to use, but he doesn’t even get to KEEP the damn thing. He has to will it to someone on Naviti, in the hopes that those bonds will save him. Yeah, I’m SURE that the guy on the bottom wants bonds with the other tribe, not something to keep THEMSELVES safe. Jacob decides to will it to Morgan, since she seemed a bit weaker on that tribe (she ducked when someone was to be chosen for the puzzle on the first challenge), which is a logical choice. Jacob then settles in for an evening in “Survivor” fan heaven.

We make up for lost strategizing by noting again how Donathan is weaker, though more socially bonded. Contrast with Gonzales, who’s been speaking up a bit too much (she called out distracting comments about the immunity puzzle, and insists she had the right way back at camp), but is stronger. The debate quickly comes down the pair of them, and from this tribe, if Jacob is not going to be the target, then this is actually a good debate. Both have their plusses and minuses, outlined above. Both have similar amounts of screentime, and while neither is the most fascinating character, both have something that makes me want to view this debate. Unfortunately, all that time spent at Naviti means we cut to Tribal Council only after establishing that Stephanie wants to go with social bonds, while Michael wants to go with physical strength. I’m leaning towards Stephanie getting her way, since Donathan was presented as a hero of the season, so it would be weird to see him go this early, but strange things have happened.

I retract my statement about the art department getting lazy. This Tribal Council is GORGEOUS! A lot of cluttered chaos, but in a good way, with sticks poking up everywhere. The piece de resistance, though, has to be that voting booth. Nothing is as cheesily cool as voting in a giant tiki head with flaming eyeballs. That’s the kind of cool cheese I love from “Survivor”.

What happens at Tribal Council ain’t half-bad either. Nothing earth-shattering (with one exception we’ll get to shortly), but we get to see that this tribe is pretty good at double-talking. Laurel in particular is able get in a line about going with strength without making it obvious she’s voting out the “stronger” Gonzales. Stephanie does her share as well, but does it in such a way that it does tip Gonzales off.

This is where things get interesting. Gonzales now pays greater attention to everything, culminating in her whispering to several people prior to the vote. Ok, how is this in any way smart? If Gonzales wanted to CHANGE her plans, I could understand it, but she’s just checking that everything’s still good. Apart from the whispering revealing who your alliance members are, OF COURSE people will tell you they’re sticking to your plan! It doesn’t matter if they lie to you! You’ll be gone! Nothing lost! You’re just doing this because you saw it on previous seasons, and wanted a bit more screen time, aren’t you?

As Probst goes to tally the votes, I am pleased to hear the return of the awesome Tribal Council soundtrack from “Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”. The vote ends in a slight anticlimax as Gonzales goes home. While I liked both her and Donathan as a viewer, I feel like less was lost with a Gonzales exit. While she was tougher than your average “Survivor” beauty, her story just doesn’t have the heart Donathan’s has. Plus, I feel her exit was the smarter strategic decision. Despite losing, this tribe is not hurting for strength. In addition, given the chaos Gonzales helped cause at the immunity challenge, I don’t see her as that much of a help. Given that, it’s better to keep the people who keep your unit cohesive, and thus, Donathan is the better choice.

With the exit of Gonzales, she joins the long line of great “Idol Speculation” winner picks. It’s insights like these that make me the strategic mastermind you keep coming back to.

Checking in at Naviti, Domenick is having some trouble keeping his paranoia in check. Despite Wendell acting as his alarm system, Domenick takes from the playbook of Ben Driebergen (“Survivor Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers”), and goes idol hunting though the night. He finds the thing in a tree (what a shock), but can’t read the note in the dark. The next morning, he finds that this idol hails from “Survivor Caramoan”, and is the one Andrea was voted out with on that season. A double-bonus for him, as unlike other idols, this is from a less-liked season, and thus is less likely to be recognized, even by superfans. By all measures, Domenick now has much more room to play. He squanders it instantly by making a move on Chris that I STILL can’t wrap my head around. Making a peace with Chris I can understand. After all, as the cliche goes, best to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Chris understandably asks if Domenick has an idol. Dominic actually plays off a good incredulous look (better than some we’ll be getting to), and I’m still ok with this. After all, if you’re still looking to get out Chris, it’s best to have a tool like an idol on your side. Then Domenick proceeds to make a fake idol, and stash the note with it. Still following. Best to throw other idol-hunters off the trail. Then Domenick SHOWS Chris the fake idol with the real note, thereby proving that he lied to Chris about not having the idol, and you’ve lost me. WHAT WAS THE POINT OF LYING TO CHRIS, ONLY THEN TO REVEAL SAID LIE WITH ANOTHER LIE LATER? Where are you going with this? Chris, while impulsive, is not an idiot, realizes that Domenick has lied to him, and thus swears to keep an eye on him. Stellar playing there, Domenick! You’ve accomplished exactly the opposite of what you intended! Truly, it takes a masterful player to do that!

Domenick’s not the only one with an advantage, though. Morgan finds the legacy advantage willed to her by Jacob (in a cute moment, both caress Sierra’s name in the same fashion), and we get some foreshadowing for the inevitable swap. That’s about it. Morgan seems nice, but she’s not the most exciting person out there.

Speaking of Jacob, just because he got no advantage at Ghost Island doesn’t mean he can’t bluff that he got one. He makes a pretty convincing fake idol, and plots to tell his tribe MOST of the truth. You see, he’ll tell about the urns and the game of chance and all that, but say he got an idol out of it. I’d keep what the specific advantage was a secret, implying rather than telling, since it makes calling one’s bluff harder, but not a bad plan, assuming it can be pulled off with subtlety. Jacob being Jacob, he spills everything to his tribe in about five minutes, and misplays the damn thing. Look I’m not saying don’t threaten idol usage, but don’t outright state it. Imply that you will, and let paranoia take care of the rest.

As it stands, Jacob’s plan truly backfires because his bluff is called. Brendan asks to see the note, and Jacob must quickly make up that he forgot it on Ghost Island. After he leaves, Brendan rightly points out the BS this is, and keeps the plan on Jacob, though he asks Stephanie to make Jacob comfortable, just in case the idol is real. Good plan by Brendan, bad play by Jacob.

Our second immunity challenge, sadly, does not compare to the first one. Despite drawing from better stock (specifically “Octopus’ Garden” from “Survivor Cagayan” and the coconut cage challenge from “Survivor Micronesia”), this one just feels like an underwhelming generic obstacle course. To make matters worse, this thing’s another blowout for Naviti. Here, when we actually HAD enough strategizing from both tribes to make things a mystery, one tribe is clearly going to be the winner. Naivety takes an early lead, and when both James and Donathan struggle with the diving portion, everything is set in stone. Not that Probst can’t force a moment out of this, though. Donathan, not being a strong swimmer, left everything to James. When James chokes (both figuratively and literally), he begs for Donathan to sub in. Donathan insists he can’t, which leads his tribe to cheer him on. Even Probst, dropping any pretense of impartiality, also eggs on Donathan to do it, because dammit, it was a sweet moment when Cirie did it on “Survivor Game Changers”, and we’re going to recreate that moment, no matter how forced!

Forced or not, it was nice to see Donathan succeed. Naviti still wins handily, though, and unfortunately for Jacob, are sticking with their “Send most visible player to Ghost Island” strategy. Lest you think Probst has no impact on the game, his egging on of Donathan gets the boy sent to Ghost Island. Way to be impartial there, Probst.

Donathan does not get the pleasure of a Ghost Island gamble, and so must be content with his moral challenge victory. Bummer.

With everything now on the line, Jacob is in trouble. Despite James’ struggle, the tribe as a whole is still anti-Jacob, especially as few really believe in his idol. Fortunately, Stephanie is getting a bit power-mad, and considers taking Jacob on, since he’s a more loyal soldier. It will take all of Jacobs guile and cunning to play this correctly and save himself. He crumbles in about five minutes.

For all that I give Jacob a hard time, I actually have a real soft-spot for the guy. I feel like his main flaw is simply too much enthusiasm as a super-fan. He just wants the game to go on, but in his eagerness, overplays and overshares out of excitement. Is it a flaw? Yes, but would any other true fan be much different in that situation? It’d be difficult, at the very least.

In the ultimate failure to take advantage of Stephanie’s power grab, Jacob spills everything to her. He admits the idol is a fake, because that’s SURE to get people to stick with you. Admit that you’ve lied to them, nothing can go wrong! Then, Jacob talks about the legacy advantage to Stephanie, which at FIRST seems like an ok idea. After all, this means that Jacob has connections to the other tribe, and is thus more valuable, right? Unfortunately, it being so early, all Stephanie has to do is vote out Jacob, then lie to Morgan and say his boot wasn’t her idea, and BAM, all the connection without the Jacob. For all that I like the guy, his eagerness to play is a liability, since it makes him reveal secrets an alliance may not want revealed.

For the final nail in the Jacob coffin, the alternate target is not James (since he would be required in the vote) but Michael. Don’t get me wrong, Michael’s been fairly visible, and of the potential targets tonight is the one I most want to see go as a viewer, but really, between the arguments for him and the arguments for Jacob, it’s no contest.

Tribal Council, while still good, is a less memorable affair. Some more decent double-talk, and good arguments from Jacob, and even a really fun voting confessional from him as well (“There’s a reason we have two ears and one mouth. Listen more.”), in the end, the inevitable comes, and Jacob is booted. Like Gonzales, I will miss the guys. He was a lot of fun, and his only true crime was to be too eager to play, a flaw I can easily forgive. He will be missed.

This episode is a bit of an oxymoron for me. By most rights, I should hate it. Fairly predictable, a number of repeated storylines, and the editing was all over the place. And yet I LOVED it! I think it comes down to those early scenes of camp introduction, to be honest. Whatever the other flaws of this episode, it did a fantastic job of getting me to understand and care about these characters. That, at its core, is what makes for a good season of “Survivor”, and if it can do that job well, which I contend this episode did, I can forgive a lot. 

Less forgivable is the overabundance of twists. Next episode is a swap. God help us all.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

P.S If you’re looking for a “Top 5 and Bottom 5”, don’t worry. I have one in mind that I will put in next week’s episode. For now, it is late, and I am tired.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Ghost Island” Cast Assessment

Greetings and salutations, readers! With the new cast announced, it is time to go to Ghost Island, and resurrect “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to! It’s time once again to delve into a new “Survivor” cast, though this one is special for a couple of reasons. For the first time in my “Survivor” blogging career, I have neither returnees nor a themed division to talk about. Huzzah! On the other hand, this is also probably the cast I’m doing with the least amount of information. Usually, when EW.com and CBS.com release their cast bios, I write, which is what I’m doing now. However, EW.com, for whatever reason, is a bit scant on the information. No quotes, and short of a video on why they’ll win, plus the usual photos, hometown, age, and occupation, but nothing much about their strategies, favorite past contestants, pet peeves, or anything to make my job easier. So, I guess this will be a good experiment as to whether such information is actually helpful, or if it just confused me into making bad guesses. Let’s start off with…

MALOLO TRIBE

Brendan Shapiro (41, Physical Education Teacher, Herndon, VA): I hate to start off this way, but this is the order I have our new cast in, and unfortunately, we’re starting off with kind of a negative one. On the surface, Brendan seems like a nice enough guy. Reasonably fit, very affable, the sort of person you’d expect to have at least a decent shelf life on any other season. And were this any other season, Brendan might possibly be my winner pick. Unfortunately for him, this is not any other season, and one facet of this season in particular dooms Brendan. This is a season that skews INCREDIBLY young. Don’t get me wrong, “Survivor” isn’t exactly known for casting exclusively middle-aged people, but this season in particular seems to favor the young and carefree. Think “Millennials vs. Gen-X” without the Gen-X. This means that, at the ripe young age of 41, Brendan is actually the SECOND OLDEST PLAYER ON THE SEASON! BY ONLY ONE YEAR! Yeah, let that sink in. Just two years ago we had Joe “Getting it Done at 71” Del Campo competing on the island, and now the best we can do is someone 30 years his junior. But age alone does not doom Brendan. Hell, there are a couple of mid-30’s players I’ll have nothing but praise for. But out of all the players this season, Brendan is the one who strikes me as the most “paternal” and “take charge” (save perhaps one guy on the latter category, but we’ll get to him later), and on a season of the young and carefree, this is not good. Young people, especially young adults, bridle at someone trying to take control. Add onto that Brendan admitting to having a temper if provoked, and you’ve got a recipe for a pre-merge boot no doubt about it.

Donathan Hurley (26, Caretaker, Kimper, KY): Moving on to a slightly more positive bio, we have our stock gay character for the season. Well, I say stock because “Survivor” seems to have an unwritten rule about casting no more than one LGBT character on a season (with some exceptions like “Survivor Vanuatu” and “Survivor Game Changers”, but the overall pattern remains one a season), but Donathan is actually a fairly intriguing character. As an openly gay man from a very conservative area, it would be easy for him to be grumpy and talk a lot about the hardships he’s had to endure (see Cumbie, Colton of “Survivor One World”), but he’s actually a pretty upbeat and optimistic, all things considered. Hell, that enthusiam’s so contagious that it had me in a humongous grin throughout his video. I’m not sure he’s got a lot of smarts, but that could just be his accent. At the very least he seems like he at least understands the basics of the game, and that could serve him well. As I’ll be reiterating a lot in this blog, this season is very much a “Go with the flow” type season. Overt strategists will not do well. Those who can fit with the vibe of the others while still strategizing in the background are the ones who will do well this season. While I’m not sure Donathan will strategize in the background, his enthusiasm at least spares him early elimination. I’d put him as a mid-merge boot, since his background and likability could make him a jury threat, but no earlier than that.

Jacob Derwin (22, Music Teacher, Brooklyn, NY): My doppelgänger in more than just looks, I was predisposed to like Jacob early on. Awkward “Survivor” nerds are my kind of people, and Jacob admits to fitting in that category. Truth be told, while I like the guy, I was initially writing him off. By his own admission, he’s not that great in terms of physical challenges, and I could still see this being a pitfall for him. However, this is a season with no shortage of physical threats, and so this may actually make it easier for a challenge sink like Jacob to hide. You can afford to lose a couple of strong people per tribe, and still be in decent shape. As such, given that he seems to have a good self-deprecating sense of humor, and enough smarts to be a background strategist while appearing to go with the flow, I predict Jacob to be a late-merge boot of the season. I’m not sure he’s quite got the killer instinct to take it all the way, but it also wouldn’t entirely surprise me if he won.

James Lim (24, Business Analyst, New York, NY): I’ve gone back and forth throughout the cast bios in regards to James. My initial instinct was that he was in trouble. It seemed like he’d lived a lot of life in those first 24 years, moving fairly frequently and knowing little but success. All well and good, but such a life seems counter to “Survivor”, where one has to expect things to not go your way. When I saw his video, he then seemed humble and self-aware, and I thought perhaps I was underestimating him. Then he mentioned not being entirely comfortable in the outdoors, and it put me at a loss. James is one of only a couple people this season I just can’t seem to get a read on, no matter what I do. If I had to put my chips somewhere, I’d give him the benefit of a doubt, and make him an early merge boot. People uncomfortable in the outdoors tend to be pre-mergers, but if James can overcome that, he should do pretty well.

Jenna Bowman (23, Advertising Account Executive, Venice Beach, CA): There’s usually a couple of warning signs that someone is doomed for an early boot. Talking about having a temper. Talking about not liking the outdoors. Talking about how modeling somehow prepares you for “Survivor”. Jenna, however, has added a new topic to the “doomed” lexicon: Talking about how you will DEFINITELY have enemies on the jury. Just when I was thinking we might have a season without an obvious first boot, Jenna gives us the gem that if she doesn’t have have e”at least five people on the jury who hate her, then she’s “playing the game wrong.” Actually, Jenna, I would say having such people on the jury MEANS you’re playing the game wrong. This may come as a shock, particularly to fans of Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”), but to win the game, PEOPLE NEED TO LIKE YOU! If you’re coming into the game planning to be that antagonistic, then you deserve your ultimate fate, which is to be the first boot of the season. If you’re going to play that aggressive socially, then there’s no way you fit on, on this season in particular, but on any season in general.

Laurel Johnson (29, Financial Consultant, Minneapolis, MN): Laurel is a dark horse for me this season. She gives off a “Sophie Clarke” (“Survivor South Pacific”) vibe to me, which is normally a good thing. Sophie is an underrated winner, and quite skilled at the game. On a happy-go-lucky season like this, though, those skills may not be an asset. What makes me uncertain about Laurel is her insecurity about her physical prowess (though again, I’m not sure that will be a big detriment to her this season), and whether or not she’s able to adapt to the attitude of the season. My gut says she will, so I’d mark her as a sleeper strategist, probably a mid-to-late merge boot. She could even pull off a victory, if she plays her skills right.

Libby Vincek (24, Social Media Strategist, Houston, TX): Libby’s not going to be an immediate target, but she is definitely a pre-merge boot. Interestingly, though, it’s not for the reasons I’ll usually be saying that about people in this case. Libby’s issue is NOT that she’s a hardcore strategist. She knows enough to get by, but not so much that she clashes. Nor does she go against the “take it easy” tone of the rest of the cast. No, Libby’s problem is a much more common one, and that is the problem of religion. Religion, in and of itself, is not horrible on “Survivor”, but if you’re going to get by being a super-religious person, you either need to leave your religion at Ponderosa, or you need to have a lot of other religious people on the cast. Neither is going to be the case for Libby, and she’ll suffer for it. I doubt she’s the very first boot of the season, but I’d be a bit surprised to see her make the merge.

Michael Yerger (18, Real Estate Agent, Los Angeles, CA): Being well-established so young is an accomplishment Michael can be proud of. That said, I don’t see it translating very well to success on “Survivor”. The dude’s young, and seems determined to prove himself because of it. That could backfire easily. The feeling I get from this guy is that he’s the second coming of Silas Gaither (“Survivor Africa”), and that’s not a good thing. Michael is a young buck out to prove himself as a leader. This is hard to stomach on the more strategic of season, and with a season like this, where overt strategy is likely to be shunned, Michael is to be shunned along with it. His age probably keeps him around until the swap, but once that happens, his mouth and his strength will make him a goner.

Stephanie Gonzales (26, Graphic Sales, Ocala, FL): If you’re looking for someone who fits the vibe of this season almost perfectly, the Stephanie may just be the one for you. Generally cheerful, but with enough backbone and knowledge to make the right moves and get along with anyone, Stephanie is my female pick to win the whole season. This was a tough one, as I was overall unimpressed with most of the women this season, but Stephanie stood out to me for being both socially affable, but inwardly tough. This is a rare combination to find, but it’s probably the sort that can win a season like this. Stephanie will never be considered a threat, but with her background, she could easily pull out a win by talking about how much she’s overcome. Against this crowd, I think she will.

Stephanie Johnson (34, Yoga Instructor, Chicago, IL): In this Stephanie, we have the second coming of Shirin Oskooi (“Survivor Worlds Apart”), and unfortunately, I don’t mean that in a good way. Don’t get me wrong, Shirin had some strategic chops, and I think Stephanie does as well. The trouble is that it’s immensely overshadowed by her kookiness. Don’t get me wrong, Stephanie is a lot of fun. I love her wanting to wear a lot of bright colors on the show just for the fun of it! And, if there was a season where kookiness might be embraced, strategy be damned, this would be that season. Where Stephanie runs into trouble is that such kookiness makes her stand out, and can be irritating in large doses. If Stephanie can live through the first couple of votes, she probably makes it deep. If she just can’t tame herself for a bit, as I suspect she can’t, she’s out pre-merge, and the show will be the worse for it.

NAVITI TRIBE

Angela Perkins (42, Army Veteran, Cincinnati, OH): It’s a bit awkward talking about Angela first on this tribe, but that’s what alphabetical order by first name will do to you. CURSE YOU, SEAN KENNIFF (“Survivor Borneo”)! The oldest person on this season, and the only one with a military background, Angela would seem to be dead on arrival this season. After all, what clashes more with a happy-go-lucky group than an older military type? And Angela very nearly fell into this category. Looking over everything, though, there are a few factors that save her. For one, while the season as a whole is very young, this tribe has more of the older end of that set, making Naviti less of a proverbial death sentence for “older” players. Second, and more important, watching Angela’s video, she does not have the sort of “drill sergeant nasty” personality one can often associate with military types. She and her tribe aren’t going to see eye-to-eye, but she’s not going to be in-your-face about it either. Couple that with a couple of other people more in-your-face annoying than she is, and Angela in my estimation makes the mid-merge. I don’t think she gets in a solid alliance, at least on her starting tribe, and probably gets voted out for being a swing vote, but she does make the mid-merge, at least.

Bradley Kleihege (26, Law Student, Los Angeles, CA): If the name of the game is fitting in, Bradley does not. I was initially pretty positive where Bradley was concerned, or at a minimum neutral. However, like Jenna, his interview had a quote that portends doom. Specifically, he mentioned only really getting along with other smart people/law students. Socially skills such as these rarely get you anywhere on “Survivor”, and with a season that seems particularly geared towards rewarding social prowess, I can’t see Bradley as anything other than a pre-merger, though given that this tribe has bigger fish to fry, I can see him making the swap.

Chelsea Townsend (24, EMT/Pro Cheerleader, Los Angeles, CA): Like James before her, Chelsea is another one I just can’t get a good read on. I had initially written her off as another preppy cheerleader, but something about he just seems tougher than that. Granted, she still tries in vain to make me believe cheerleading is somehow relevant to “Survivor”, but she doesn’t overly dwell on it, so perhaps she at least won’t be ungodly annoying. She’s another one I’m unsure about in terms of survival skills, but she proved me wrong on toughness, so maybe she’ll prove me wrong here as well. Like James, I’ll give her the benefit of a doubt. Since I get better vibes from her than from James, I’ll call her a mid-to-late merge boot.

Chris Noble (27, Male Model, Brooklyn, NY): Chris is the first of many people on this season going through a major transition and “finding themselves”. As such, let me take this time to state that such people DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”! “Survivor” is very much a game dominated by those who already know who they are, what they want, and how to get at it. They can plan ahead the best, and therefore they tend to do the best. That said, given the unthreatening nature of someone who can’t plan ahead that well, coupled with Chris fitting in well with the feel of this season as a whole, I’d say he’s got a long shelf life. Probably and early-merge boot, like most such people.

Desiree Afuye (21, Student, Brooklyn, NY): While on the younger side of things this season, Desiree is one of those “strong personalities” I mentioned earlier that may keep Angela safe. I had the feeling reading about her that Desiree might have a temper. Sure enough, there it is in her video. Desiree at least seems aware of her faults, and so will probably be able to keep them under enough control to avoid first-boot status. Plus, having lived outside the US for a significant period of time (and in a less-developed country no less), Desiree may hold up better under hardship than I first thought. However, time on the island wears on you, no matter how much experience you may have. Desiree’s temper will come out, and when it does, it will cost her. Going off a timeline, I’d say Desiree is set as yet another pre-merge boot.

Domenick Abbate (38, Construction Supervisor, Nesconset, NY): Strong personalities just go together, I guess. Were I to wager on who from Naviti would go first, Domenick would get my bet. The poor man has the bad combination of being both an older guy and a strong, abrasive, take-charge personality on a season that favors neither of these factors. I had thought maybe he could control it, but everything in his video says otherwise. Expect this guy to be a pre-merge boot, no doubt.

Kellyn Bechtold (31, Career Counselor, Denver, CO): Another oddball in this group, Kellyn finds herself in the older category, while also being one of the many people on this season going through a major transition and “finding themselves”. The latter point, and her general attitude save her from the pitfall of age, but need I remind you, such people DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”. That being said, of all the people in this category, Kellyn may have the best chance of any of them. Her professional life shows that she can be a dedicated leader and worker when needed, and hidden behind the guise of being carefree, could make Kellyn dangerous. That said, there is a danger that he desire for control could overwhelm this attitude, in which case Kellyn’s in trouble. However, I suspect that she’ll initially parlay this into being a lieutenant in the majority alliance, thus allaying some of her desire for control without sinking her social game. That said, this makes her the merge boot. We’ve seen a trend lately of the first boot at the merge being the lieutenant of an alliance who’s unlikely to get a hidden immunity idol of any sort. Kellyn fits that description to a “T”, and so will go in that spot.

Morgan Ricke (29, Marine Animal Trainer, Orlando, FL): Morgan is a lot of fun, and fortunately I think she’ll go deep. In many ways, she exemplifies the attitude of this season, being upbeat and slightly quirky, but still having at least a basic understanding of “Survivor”. She seems strong enough to not be a liability, but not so strong as to be a threat. A good combination and while I don’t see her being much of a leader, look to her as a mid-to-late merge boot. She’s here for a while.

Sebastian Noel (22, Fishing Guide, Satellite Beach, FL): Sebastian completes the triad of people going through a major transition in life and “finding themselves” on the show. Say it with me now: SUCH PEOPLE DO NOT WIN “SURVIVOR”. Much like his more muscular counterpart, Chris, though, I suspect Sebastian will be spared an early elimination. He’s strong, affable, and won’t rock the boat, so he’ll be brought along in the majority alliance. Once again, as a major physical threat, he’ll be an early merge boot. Too dangerous in challenges to keep longer than that, but useful up until that point.

Wendell Holland (33, Furniture Company Owner, Philadelphia, PA): If balance is the key to winning this game, then Wendell Holland is going to be the winner. I say this because he’s my winner pick for the men this season. Now, this might seem odd, as Wendell is ALSO on the “older” end of the spectrum on a season that skews young. Note, though, that especially on Naviti, it’s attitude more than age that matters. Despite Kellyn being “older”, I give her better odds than the younger Desiree, since the former’s attitude matches more closely with the season than the latter’s. Wendell falls into the same boat, but more so. He is 33, but he PLAYS young, and looks young enough to pull it off. The guy’s smart and driven enough to take charge of his destiny, but not so overt that he rocks the boat. He’s strong, but not so strong as to be an overt threat. And, most of all, he’s cheerful, so he’ll fit right in on personality. When it comes to strategy, though, he’ll play circles around these people, and that should take him all the way to the bank. I worry a bit that he doesn’t quite have the killer instinct needed to win, as he seemed a bit TOO happy-go-lucky in his videos, but I get the feeling that, as a super-fan, he’ll pick it up once the game actually starts.

And there you have it! Must admit, kind of an interesting bunch we have this season. There’s a very clear attitude, and it screams “non-strategic, character season”. Point being, with so many people more concerned about personality than overt gameplay, this will be a fun season to watch, but won’t bring much new to the table strategically. Better than being a season with nothing to offer, and should be a fun ride, to say the least. Put another way, this cast doesn’t break the season for me, but it doesn’t scream “Top 10 material” either just due to the cast. They can prove me wrong, but they’ll have to work for it.

As to Ghost Island itself, I’m still excited about the idea, as it pays good homage to “Survivor” history, and is basically the return of Exile Island, a twist I’m rather fond of. That said, I’m not sure this was the best cast to do it with. Not to say that they should have saved this twist for a returnee season (though that would have been a smart idea), but this twist needs a lot of people with intense knowledge of “Survivor” history. For all the claims that this is a season of “superfans”; and it should be noted that most people on this season have at least a basic understanding of gameplay; really only Wendell and Jacob seem overt in this area. Again, this cast could prove me wrong, so I’ll hold off on condemning the producers for this one just yet, but hopefully they prove me wrong come the start of this season.

Speaking of which, I would like to issue a disclaimer in advance: blogs may be very late this season. No, my cable no longer seems to be acting up, but I am currently taking care of the family dog, who needs to be walked as soon as I get home. Read: “15-10 minutes before ‘Survivor’ starts.” I will try to make the show on time each week I can, but her bathroom needs come first, and in that case I’ll just get the blog to you all ASAP. I solemnly swear that I will not read spoilers or other opinions until I see the episode, so you still get that patented “Idol Speculation” effect.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.