Idol Speculation: “Survivor 42 Cast Assessment”

Ah, the sweet, sweet feeling of NOT needing to wait over a year to talk about new “Survivor” content.  Sure, the bios are still noticeably lacking in information, but hey, at least we actually GET the tribe divisions pre-season this time.  Already a leg up on the previous season, and for once that’s actually a compliment, and not meant as a dig at a bad season.  

Ladies, gentlemen, non-binary individuals, it is my esteemed pleasure to welcome you back to “Idol Speculation”, my knee-jerk opinion that everyone is entitled to!  With the announcement of a new cast a month out from the show’s premiere, that mean’s it’s naturally time for me to make snap judgments about each of them that will inevitably be wrong, and then be mercilessly mocked for my ignorance later!  I’m sure you’ve all got your mocking sticks ready, so let’s waste no more time, and jump right into this cast assessment!

Jonathan Young (29, Beach Service Company Owner, Gulf Shores, AL, Taku Tribe): A fun fact about Jonathan is that he was a contest on the Discovery Kids show “Endurance”, a fact that he slyly references by using “Endurance”, with the capital “E” to describe himself.  Nice bit of subtlety there, Jonathan.  For those who don’t know, “Endurance” was kind of like “Survivor”, but for kids.  A group gets put in some wilderness (usually in the US for travel purposes), then compete against each other in a series of challenges, both physical and interpersonal, to become the last pair remaining and win the grand prize.  Will this help him on “Survivor”?  Eh, probably not much.  There’s worse training you can do, but “Endurance” was effectively catered cabin camping, as compared to the more brutal nature of “Survivor”, and the interpersonal politics only took one so far when elimination came down to effectively a game of “Rock, Paper, Scissors”.  Honestly, I think the thing that’s most helpful about Jonathan’s time on “Endurance” is the fact that his season was one of the few that went international.  They filmed in Fiji; in fact on the same island “Survivor” uses today.  Far-fetched as it may be, I could see Jonathan’s familiarity with the land being helpful in terms of finding idols and advantages in the game.  Tempting as it might be to look at Jonathan’s gameplay on “Endurance” for clues to how he’ll do here, the fact is that was 15 years ago, and a person changes a lot in that time.  As to how Jonathan is now?  He’s basically the most quintessential “Florida Man” I’ve ever seen, which is impressive for someone who doesn’t actually live in Florida.  The dude is all about athleticism and a good time, but not much else.  He compares himself to Ozzy, which seems apt given his strengths and weaknesses.  It speaks poorly of his chances of winning, but bear in mind the only time Ozzy went out pre-merge was because he ASKED to as a strategy.  As such, I’d put Jonathan in the same category: Coasts along on his strength early on, only to be picked off as a threat in the early-to-mid merge.  

Marya Sherron (47, Stay-At-Home Mom, Noblesville, IN, Taku Tribe): Normally I’d be down on the chances of the “Mom” archetype that Marya seems to play into, but as we saw with Tiffany and Heather last season, that can work to one’s advantage.  That said, there are some red flags I’m noticing for Marya.  The pet peeves rear their ugly head, as while one is relatively harmless to her chances (people who don’t cover their sneezes, which unless Bobby Jon Drinkard from “Survivor Palau” is secretly coming back this season, she probably doesn’t need to worry too much), but “meanness” is a bit harder to stomach.  Granted, it’s not as bad as one’s pet peeve being, say, “Liars”, but it’s not a particularly good sign in my book either.  She also talks about wanting to be a leader, and to play like Angelina (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) and Tony (“Survivor Cagayan”), which at best seems like a weird, slightly chaotic combination in my book.  Unfortunately, the real nail in the coffin for Marya is the tribe she’s on.  It’s probably the strongest of the three challenge-wise, which means she won’t be vulnerable for a few tribal councils most likely, but that’s partly because this tribe skews younger, making her stand out, which is particularly bad in the early days of “Survivor”.  They also skew fairly quirky, which again, not a word I would use to describe Marya.  She may not be the first target on their minds, unless she costs them a challenge, but I’d still expect Marya to be a pre-merge boot, though later rather than earlier within that category.  

Romeo Escobar (37, Pageant Coach, Norwalk, CA, Ika Tribe): You know, sometimes it’s really hard to pick a first boot out of a cast.  Perhaps because everyone seems relatively even in terms of tribe challenge ability, perhaps because everyone presents themselves really well, perhaps because people outright lie in their bio.  Then sometimes you get a Semhar Tadesse (“Survivor South Pacific”) whose very presence screams “First Boot”.  Unfortunately for Romeo, he falls into the latter category for me.  Right off the bat, he strikes me as the type who will bring a lot of drama.  Great for television, bad for sticking around, especially when tribes are this small.  When even he describes himself as “impatient”, you know you’ve got an issue.  Plus, while this is more of a personal annoyance, he’s about the only person on this cast who says “No player has been like me before.”  Now, as a pageant coach, Romeo must be used to dealing with big personalities, so if he had the opportunity to stick around a few days, and let others start drama of their own, I could see him having a decent run.  Unfortunately, he’s on what looks set to be the “disaster tribe” of this season, and by sticking out so much, he’s just doomed to an early exit should his tribe attend Tribal Council early, which they likely will.  Please prove me wrong man, but my gut says you’re doomed.  

Tori Meehan (25, Therapist, Rogers, AR, Ika Tribe): Hoo boy, here we go.  We need to talk about Tori.  Let’s go through her bio shall we?  Her pet peeves are “When people lack self-awareness, are emotionally reactive, immature, or petty.”  She brags about how easy it was to get through college debt-free.  She’s ultra-religious, literally listing Jesus as her hero, and referencing the importance of her faith over and over.  She DARES to compare herself to Kim Spradlin, arguably the greatest player of the game of all time.  She goes and has a degree similar to my own, thereby putting her in far too close proximity to myself for my liking.  And then, if what I’ve seen about her social media is to be believed, she’s a vaccine denier (though I’ll admit I don’t have firsthand information on this one).  All this combines to make Tori very likely to win the game.  That game of course being “Which Contestant Can Make Matt Despise Them The Quickest?”  The game of “Survivor”?  Not so much.  If she annoys me, chances are she’s going to annoy at least SOME other people out there, who are likely to end up on her tribe at some point.  And while I’m TRYING to not see overt religion as a red flag (as Shan proved last season, one can still play a competent game with overt religion as well), this feels too excessive even for me.  Her pet peeves, as should be obvious, do her no favors either.  So, with all these marks against her, why do I not say she’ll be the first boot over Romeo, whom I might actually ENJOY watching, given that she’s also on the likely “disaster tribe”?  Well… Much as I might WANT Tori to be sent packing super early, and much as I will enjoy the moment when it inevitably comes, we have a season preview to go off of, and that season preview gave us the bad news that Tori finds some advantage, presumably an idol based on her reading about the phrases to activate said idol.  For all my negative talk about Tori, she doesn’t seem to be an idiot, and so I think can be trusted to strategically play her idol to her advantage.  I suspect she leverages it with her tribe to get herself father in the game than her personality might otherwise indicate.  That said, she’s doomed at the merge, idol or no idol.  The problem is that with the larger merges these days, the merge bootee tends to be the person who can most easily bring the group to a consensus. and no one screams “Will annoy most people.” on this cast more than Tori.  As such, expect her to be gone right at the merge.  And oh, what a happy, happy merge it will be.  

Jackson Fox (48, Healthcare Worker, Houston, TX, Taku Tribe): Ah, this is the palate cleanser I needed.  While I have my favorites from spoiled cast previews, there’s a few that, when I read about them, surprise me pleasantly.  Jackson is that one this time, such that I nearly made him my pick to win it all.  Dude reminds me of a modern-day Lex Van Den Berghe (“Survivor Africa”) in that while first impression might lead to him seeming kind of freaky, he’s a real softie underneath, with good emotional awareness.  His comparison to Elaine from “Island of the Idols” seems both apt and in his favor in this case.  Sadly, there’s a couple of bits that stop me short of calling him my winner pick.  He’s the other “older person” on a younger-skewing tribe, though given his own quirks, I think this is less an issue for him than for Marya a few bios back.  More concerning is his pet peeve of “people who don’t get to the point” since “Survivor” LOVES to cast long-winded talkers.  Still, I’ve seen people with more concerning pet peeves do well, and I certainly don’t see Jackson being much vulnerable until the merge, as he seems to be on the tribe least likely to lose.  I’d say he probably leaves in the late merge for being too much of a threat, and if he can imitate Lex’s game without all the gut problems (both in terms of read and in terms of parasites), I’d say he has a decent shot to win it all.  Plus, the dude likes dogs.  How can you not root at least a little for someone who likes dogs?

Chanelle Howell (29, Executive Recruiter, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Our first look at the “middle of the road” tribe.  More likely to win a challenge than Ika, less so than Taku.  Much like her tribe, Chanelle is kind of middle of the road for me.  Her bio is very guarded, without much to recommend her one way or the other.  There are a couple of red flags; notably she’s another one who dares to set a high bar by comparing herself to Kim Spradlin, and given how much she talks about analysis and numbers, I worry she may focus too much on the strategic side of the game, and not enough on the interpersonal one.  Even so, barring that she costs Vati a challenge (which I don’t see happening, but then I didn’t see Sara last season doing so either), there’s little reason to get rid of Chanelle, as she’s fairly inoffensive.  I’d expect her to be a mid-merge boot, possibly a decoy to flush an idol.  Either way, will be a decent player, around for a decent amount of time.  

Omar Zaheer (31, Exotic Animal Veterinarian, Whitby, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Ah, now HERE we’re getting to the good stuff.  Omar stood out to me for name alone, and the more I read his bio, the more I fell in love, and not just because he listed “Settlers of Catan” as a hobby.  The dude just exudes “fun” and “humor” from every orifice, and I am here for every minute of it.  Now, on paper, Omar’s got some issues.  While only one of his pet peeves (rudeness) is likely to come up frequently in the game (I don’t see many vet bills coming on the island, and I don’t think pigeons are indigenous to Fiji), the sheer number of them is concerning.  Plus, he makes the opposite mistake when comparing himself to past players, trying to hybridize too many than to few (including, yet again, Kim Spradlin).  However, one must not only consider the charm that comes through a mere photo of the guy, but also his instance on the motto of “They must learn to adapt, or they’ll be voted out of the tribe.”  The very core of the game, yet one not overtly emphasized by most players these days.  Very refreshing to see, and speaks well of his chances, in my opinion.  So, is he my winner pick?  Yeah… No…  While I do expect him to do well, probably making the finale, he’s out at five or four for certain.  No one wants to let charm like that get to the end, and while decent at challenges, I don’t see him immunitying his way to a win.  Despite his charm, given his quirks I would actually have him out fairly early were it not again for the season preview, which shows him aligning with another smart person (yet to be talked about) on his tribe, and I think the pair of them can take control.  Rest assured, he’d be a goner if he wasn’t on what’s likely to be the dominant tribe.  As is, he’ll definitely do well, but much as I’d like to say he kicks everyone’s butt with his airbending prowess, even with his advantaged position he just doesn’t have the prowess to clinch the win.  Also, kudos to the five of you who understand why I made that specific reference in relation to Omar.  

Swati Goel (19, Ivy League Student, Palo Alto, CA, Ika Tribe): Sadly, Swati is our major case of “Someone who would probably do ok were they on a different tribe for the season.”  True, Swati has a couple of red flags even given her tribe, notably complaining about people who are “emotionally manipulative”,  and admiring human scum Elon Musk.  That said, it’s hard for me to diss a fellow theater kid, and I applaud her comparing herself favorably to the underrated players of Victoria Baamonde (“Survivor Edge of Extinction”) and Kass McQuillen (“Survivor Cagayan”).  Honestly, the good and bad kind of balance out, and given how drama filled this tribe is, they’d have bigger fish to fry, and she can coast by for a while.  That’s what I would be saying were it not for the presence of Tori and her advantage/idol, where Swati I think is likely going to be the victim.  She may not be the top of everyone’s hit list, but when those on the bottom swing into power, she suddenly drops in stock, and unfortunately goes pre-merge.  Again, a shame for a fellow theater kid, but I call them as I see them.  

Hai Giang (29, Data Scientist, New Orleans, LA, Vati Tribe): Hai is another one I was kind of “meh” on at first glance, but grew to love the more I read about him.  While the dude is another one who tends more towards the strategic side of the game, rather than the interpersonal, he has a sense of justice and humanity that I think helps balance it out.  More concerning are, again, his pet peeves, which include judgmental people and patronizing people, both of which are likely to show up on “Survivor”.  The best I can say is he probably doesn’t have to worry about people wearing shoes indoors here.  That said, I have a hard time poo-pooing someone who identifies with the great Aubry Bracco (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”), and given that he’s a likely challenge anchor on a tribe that will need to keep strength around to have a chance, Hai will still around until at least the early merge, if not the mid-merge.  Really, he’s going to be his own undoing, as I see his sense of justice leading to him potentially falling on his sword (or torch) for someone else he’s allied with.  Overall nice guy who will stick around at least a decent amount of time.  Always good to see.  

Lindsay Dolashewich (31, Dietitian, Asbury Park, NJ, Taku Tribe): Lindsay better hope that the Taku Tribe is truly dominant, as in going to Tribal Council no more than once pre-merge.  Otherwise, she’s going to have an issue.  Age-wise, Lindsay is a good fit for her tribe, but she seems very stiff-backed and set in her ways based on her bio.  Add on her self-describing as “loud”, and she can get on one’s nerves very easily.  That said, this is a fairly quirky tribe, and one unlikely to have a lot of early boots, which probably saves Lindsay’s bacon for a bit.  Marya stands out more, and so will go first, but Lindsay probably goes somewhere in the early merge.  That said, she does compare herself to the underrated Lauren Beck (“Survivor Island of the Idols”), and recognizes that social game is paramount.  If she can channel that strategic acumen and social grace, and manage to avoid being as sound as she normally is, she could have a deep run.  

Mike Turner (58, Retired Firefighter, Hoboken, NJ, Vati Tribe): How nice of CBS to let Eric Abraham from last season chance his name and get a second shot.  Seriously, older retired African-American dude, big on loyalty and playing the long game?  I could pretty much just copy/past Eric’s bio from last season, and it would take a minute to notice the difference.  Dude seems likable enough, but as Eric demonstrated last season, such a long, basic game doesn’t work on a shortened season with a ton of twists.  Mike does SLIGHTLY better than Eric given that his tribe is more competent, and there are more obvious early targets, but like his counterpart, I just don’t see Mike making the merge in this group.  

Lydia Meredith (22, Waitress, Santa Monica, CA, Vati Tribe): Some players are here for strategy, some players are here for entertainment, some players are here for both.  Time will tell Lydia’s strategic capabilities, but from her bio alone, she will be entertaining.  The name of the game is comedy, folks.  Lydia is an aspiring comedian, and first describes herself as “funny” before all else.  How will that translate to the island?  Frankly, it depends upon how good the comedy is, which I have no way of assessing just from her bio.  Save for her player comparisons.  In addition to the odd choice of Tom Westman (“Survivor Palau”), she mentions Cirie (“Survivor Exile Island”) and Debbie Wanner (“Survivor Kaoh Rong”).  One intentionally funny and good at the social game, one unintentionally funny and bad at the social game.  I leave it to the fans to figure out which is which.  Lydia’s got a shot at making it deep if she channels the former, but even if she channels the latter, unless her comedy REALLY bombs, I see her making at least the merge.  She’s lucky that she’s not on the disaster tribe, and that there are other more obvious targets before her.  I have a hard time seeing her winning, but I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t at least make the early merge, and could even go mid-merge if she’s more Cirie than Debbie.  

Rocksroy Bailey (44, Stay-At-Home Dad, Las Vegas, NV, Ika Tribe): No matter how disastrous a tribe may be, there’s always at least one person from it who makes it deep.  Such is the case with Rocksroy here, who is my male pick to win the whole shebang!  On a tribe that’s going to need challenge strength, Rocksroy is clearly their big gun, and likely in no danger early on as a result.  His pet peeve being drivers not using their turn signal also helps endear me to the guy, though I will say that “someone who thinks they know everything” is a bit more concerning game-wise.  The guy is brief in his bio. so there’s not a lot to go on, but enough that you feel like you know him.  What can I say, playing one’s cards close to the chest is a good thing on “Survivor”.  Plus, I feel like the dude is good at compartmentalizing and keeping secrets.  My evidence?  Like I said, this case got spoiled early, and spoilers come with pictures.  The one exception?  Rocksroy.  If the dude is good enough to keep his online presence such a secret there’s no good quality photos of him around, the dude is good enough to keep secrets on “Survivor”.  And once again, even the photo, dude exudes charm, and that charm alone is enough to make him my first winner pick of the season.  

Jenny Kim (43, Creative Director, New York, NY, Vati Tribe): Remember how I said there were some obvious targets should Vati go to Tribal Council?  Yeah, Jenny is definitely the big one here.  Being outspoken and in a leadership role works well in business, but on “Survivor”, particularly on small tribes that might not gel with your leadership style, they only make you a target.  jenny has a good shot if she can quietly lead from the sidelines, but I don’t see someone who describes themselves as “direct” doing very well with that.  Add onto that a concerning pet peeve (“Arrogant people and those with a sense of entitlement.”), along with less-obvious challenge prowess (though by no means a challenge sink), and Jenny becomes the obvious first pick for a boot should she attend an early Tribal.  As she’s not on the likely dominant tribe, I fear her fate is to be another robbed goddess, another pre-merge boot.  

Daniel Strunk (30, Law Clerk, New Haven, CT, Vati Tribe): Ah, our resident nerd archetype for the season, as well as the second person we confirmed to find an idol/advantage based on the season preview.  Daniel early on worms his way into my heart with his love of Legos, and fortunately I think he’ll be around for a while for this love to grow.  No real red flags apart from one of his pet peeves being “people so convinced they’re right they foreclose debate”, though I suppose the show could disguise some oatmeal raisin cookies as chocolate chip cookies to throw him off his game.  He also talked about admiring Supreme Court Justices of vastly different ideologies.  Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I feel like this might indicate that he’s good at reaching across the aisle and work with pretty much anyone.  Always a useful skill on “Survivor”.  Sadly, the time of nerds being 100% dominant has passed, and so Daniel will not be our winner.  That said, just because nerds often do well and now getting targeted doesn’t mean Daniel can’t match that level of success.  His social acumen, coupled with his idol, to me makes him a mid-to-late merge boot, particularly since there’s often bigger targets than him no matter if he’s in the Tribal phase or the Merge phase.  

Maryanne Oketch (24, Seminary Student, Ajax, Ontario, Canada, Taku Tribe): Seems we’re just getting all the guaranteed idol/advantage finds out of the way here.  Yes, Omar may have REACTED to her find, but Maryanne is the one who actually FINDS the thing on the Taku Tribe.  Maryanne is… Well, the best word I have is “quirky”, but again, a lot of this tribe is quirky.  I’d say she’s in danger early, but she’s on the tribe least likely to lose on paper, and we know she finds something powerful, and I expect her and Omar to leverage that to become the power couple on the tribe.  Unlike Omar, however, I expect Maryanne to leverage her advantage to a win.  Yes, Maryanne is my female pick to win the whole thing.  This might come as a surprise, given her occupation, but again, Shan has made me see that as less of a red flag, and that’s really the only mention of her religion we get from Maryanne, so I think she’ll be able to compartmentalize well.  Granted, her pet peeves have ALL the red flags, and between her and Rocksroy, I’d say she’s my less-comfortable winner pick, but given that she has time to adjust, I think she can probably overcome these issues.  Besides, if Danny McCray can overcome “liars” as a pet peeve last season, Maryanne can overcome “People who don’t listen to me… hypocrites, and people who don’t apologize.”  If she can sleep well, she’ll do fairly well.  It’ll also help is she takes her cues from her previous contestant comparison.  Davie Rickenbacker (“Survivor David vs. Goliath”) had charm coming out his ears, and I feel like Maryanne might as well.  Plus, she’s a fan of tabletop games.  How can I not root for her?

Zach Wurtenberger (22, Student, St. Louis, MO, Ika Tribe): Oh dear, guess I spoke too soon with Swati.  Look, Zach seems like a nice kid,  Not much to recommend him one way or the other, though I will say his particularly young age (second youngest in the group) is a bit of a mark against, and unlike Lydia, I HAVE seen his comedy.  It’s… Not CRINGE-WORTHY, but not exactly good either.  None of this would really be a death knell, but he’s unfortunately on what’s likely to be the disaster tribe, and thus probably another pre-merge boot.  Sorry, man.  Hope for another “Second Chances” season where you get a better tribe draw.  

Drea Wheeler (35, Fitness Consultant, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Ika Tribe): Rounding out our cast, we have the person who, at first glance, I THOUGHT was going to be my main winner pick for the season.  True, she’s on the likely disaster tribe, but like I said, SOME on the disaster tribe have to make it through, and as Drea is a likely challenge beast, she was not likely to be a target on such a tribe.  Then, as I read into the bio, my hopes were dashed.  I’ve tried to be kinder to the pet peeves this season, and give people the benefit of a doubt where they can overcome them, but when your SOLE one is “Dishonest people”?  Yeah, kind of an issue on “Survivor”.  Granted, she’s still going to be around a while given the Kelley Wentworth (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”) comparison, if she can pull it off, and the need for athleticism on her tribe means she’s likely to stick around a while, just not a winner pick anymore.  Still, look for her out no earlier than the mid-merge, probably with an immunity run in their somewhere.  

Well, there we go!  With one major exception, pretty likable cast, and for once, firmer predictions than usual!  Overall I’m very satisfied, though not satisfied enough to sit and wait for the season to start to begin blogging.  Be on the lookout for something old, and something new, before the new season begins March 9th!  

-Matt 

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.  

Idol Speculation: “Survivor Island of the Idols” Episode 3: The Bystander Effect

This episode feels no need for preamble before starting the action, so neither do I! Quite honestly, these lines are only here so that people seeing a preview online don’t get accidentally spoiled on anything. We don’t even get a “Previously On…” segment this time around. We get one clip of things to come with no announcement and no Probst narration. I’m all for keeping things short and sweet, and I’m glad the audience is being trusted to understand what’s happening without being told, but I must admit, I think not recapping the previous episode is a mistake. The “Survivor” fanbase numbers have been holding steady for years, but that’s not because no one ever leaves. Rather, it’s because new fans come in at about the same rate as old fans leave. As such, while we the superfans don’t need a recap, I feel it’s essential for drawing in the superfans of tomorrow. Hell, I only became a fan about 2/3 of the way through “Survivor Guatemala”, and that might not have happened if I didn’t have the recap to catch me up to speed. You’ve got the right idea, “Survivor”. Now just fine-tune it.

Naturally, we start off the episode at Vokai, since we’ve got the fallout from a blindside to deal with. Jason is, naturally, thrilled to not have been targeted, but we don’t dwell on that for long. For once, the reaction is not yelling, screaming, or any sort of indignation, but rather cold silence. In some ways, this is more terrifying than a blowup. Janet tries to start things off, but that doesn’t really go anywhere. Instead, it falls to diplomat Tommy to smooth things over with the burned Jack and Jamal. Tommy starts with Jack, taking him over to the water hole, and explaining that the move was against Molly, not himself or Jamal. True enough, but that still doesn’t change the fact that you didn’t include Jack on the vote, so he still has a reason to be concerned. Only an idiot would think this means everything is cool. Naturally, our next confessional is Jack being stoked about still being in the majority. I was willing to give Jack the benefit of a doubt from my first impression of him, but now it’s seeming like it might be correct.

Tommy guesses that Jamal will not be such an easy sell, and sure enough, the man’s pissed. He can’t keep the bitterness out of his voice, and asks the fair question of why he wasn’t included on the vote. The man has few options, so on the surface agrees to work with the group, but it’s clear to everyone that’s he’s out for himself, which he pretty much confirms in the confessional.

Dawn at Lairo brings us the women fooling about in the water, which is all the cue Karishma needs to talk about her heritage, and how it separates her from others. Specifically, she’s older and more modest, stating that Indians are conservative by nature. Not sure if that’s true or not, but I applaud her for going against her own personal morals to fit in, playing in the water with the other women as carefree as you please. It fits with the Rudy Boesch (“Survivor Borneo”) maxim of the individual needing to conform to fit the group to survive, not the other way around. I still maintain it’s the best summation of “Survivor” to date, and Karishma carries it well. Kudos.

The cavorting of the girls does not go unnoticed, and I don’t mean in the “Survivor The Amazon” fantasy sequence way. The guys, but particularly Tom and Aaron, notice this, and speak with the remaining guys about sticking together, not wanting the women to pick them off one by one. I would applaud their powers of observation, but sadly, I think this is just a case of dumb luck. Whenever there’s more women than men on a tribe, it seems inevitable that the accusation of “Women’s Alliance” will be leveled. The only difference in this case is that it happens to be correct. Sadly, even if I am shooting them on their powers of observation, they still don’t have much hope. Even if 4 was somehow able to be greater than 5, they still wouldn’t have a hope. Vince has not forgotten being targeted by Aaron at the first Tribal Council, and refuses to work with him. Still, at least our victims this season aren’t COMPLETE morons.

We soon see that Jamal is willing to make good on his promise of revenge back at Vokai. We start off simple enough, with another montage of Noura being irritating. This prompts Dan to inform us all that despite voting with her last time, she’s not in favor on the tribe, and touts a plan to pretty much everyone but her to take her out in a unified vote. Not a bad plan, all things considered. Nothing of great value is lost, and it unifies a tribe that needs to be unified. Jamal, however, is not about unity at this point, and so whispers in people’s ears, particularly Janet, about how Dan is taking control and needs to be stopped. My fault with Jamal here is not his plan as such. After all, this sort of talk is what got out Molly last episode. Jamal makes a good argument, but he’s doing it way too early. When you’re on the losing side of a vote, you’re in about the most vulnerable position you can be in in this game. Any name you hear that’s not yours, be grateful, and hang on to it. Don’t make waves. Now, should Jamal just forget about the betrayal, and reunify with Vokai long-run? Of course not! This is the sort of thing one should not forget about. But one should take a note from the playbook of Natalie Anderson (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”), and WAIT for the proper moment to enact your revenge. Lull your betrayers into a false sense of security, then strike. Otherwise, you run the risk of seeming like an unstable element in a game with far too many unstable elements already.

Sure enough, Janet’s not fully on board with this plan, and brings it to Tommy. He puts the kibosh on it, since he really wants that tribe reunification, where his social bonds are most helpful. As such, Jamal is now a prime target, where he wasn’t before. Way to go, Jamal.

I see it’s time to get our preview scene out of the way at Lairo. We were promised an injury, and sure enough, Karishma manages to cut her hand open while slicing some coconut. She claims she can see the bone, but surely that’s… AAGH! OH MY GOD! WHY DID YOU PUT THAT ON SCREEN?

After establishing that if anything Karishma is UNDERREACTING by calming saying she needs medical and walking away, we see that the focus of this injury is oddly not going to be the injury itself, but rather everyone’s reaction the the injury. Karishma starts to feel light-headed, presumably from shock, and so gets on her knees with her head down, to prevent passing out. A wise maneuver, but one that she does entirely on her won. You see, not one person form the group approximately 15 feet away comes over to help or comfort her. Karishma notices this, and claims that it shows she’s not really a part of the tribe, and that they’re out to get her because of her differences. Now, I applaud Karishma for paying attention to her surroundings, and I admit her conclusion has some logical basis. However, in this case I think that conclusion is wrong nonetheless. You see, I don’t think Karishma is being left out of the group, so much as she is the victim of a little something called the Bystander Effect.

For those of you not versed in Introductory Psychology, the Bystander Effect states that when a large group is asked for help, responsibility to help is diffused throughout the group, thereby decreasing the likelihood of anyone actually helping. Put more simply, if you ask a big group for help, each member of the group thinks “Someone else can do it”, making all of them less likely to actually help. Plus, in a large group, there’s then pressure to not deviate from the norm. If no one else is helping, you don’t want to stand out by helping. As a side note, this means that if you ever need help in a public place, you should call someone by name, or at least make eye contact, and ask a specific person for help. This puts all the pressure on that person, thereby making them more likely to actually help you. We should get back to “Survivor”, though. This, to me, is what’s happening with Karishma. Rather than asking one person for help, she asked the group (and didn’t even rally ask, just expected others to notice her), and didn’t make a big deal about her injury. Thus, everyone could pass off the blame and not rock the boat at the same time. Logical thinking on the part of Karishma, but wrong in this case. Don’t worry, though. Karishma will have legitimate reasons to be worried later in the episode.

After establishing that Karishma has been all bandaged up, a boat arrives at Lairo to take the next person to the Island of the Idols. Our victim this time is Vince, which worries many people. Everyone in general is worried about the possibility of an idol, while Elizabeth in particular is worried about Vince blowing her cover. More on that later. Suddenly, though, a voice from the background, mysterious and strange, comes with a solution. It is Dean!

Yes, Dean Kowalski, the most invisible contestant so far, has come to make his case. Frankly, given the quality of the case he makes, he should have kept his mouth shut. Dean, noting the idol paranoia, suggests splitting the vote in case Vince has an idol. A worthy suggestion, were it not for the fact that everyone BESIDES Vince is here, meaning that, by definition, you are suggesting voting someone off to their face, or at least bringing them close. Dean at least realizes his faux-pas, but the damage is done. Really should have just stopped talking. Karishma gets even more paranoid at this development, though again, I see little evidence that SHE will be the split vote here. It’s coming though.

Over on the Island of the Idols, we at first seem to be answering my prayer of Sandra taking the lead, as she’s the one to great Vince. Sadly, Boston Rob will again take the lead later on, but it’s a slight improvement. Vince, like Kellee before him, cries, and I’m less sympathetic here than I was to Kellee. Maybe Sandra and Boston Rob really are Vince’s heroes, but it isn’t really built up much, so his reaction seems a bit over the top. Kellee, by contrast, had a moment all of us could find emotional, making her crying far more understandable.

To be fair, though, Vince’s crying does mean the lesson for the day ties in better than before. Boston Rob wants Vince to work on controlling his emotions, and while that may not be a fatal flaw in Vince’s game, we have previously established this as something Vince struggles with, so it fits better overall. Vince’s “test” for this is to sneak into the Vokai camp and steal some fire, or other proof that the fire is out. Succeed, and you get an idol good for two votes. Get caught, and lose your next vote. Vince goes for it, which I can’t fault him for too much, since he doesn’t appear to be at risk, and I don’t see Vokai getting overly mad at his sneaking around. That said, I must call out Boston Rob for not giving Vince grief for holding out for a better deal. If this is something that’s supposed to be obvious to do, why does only Elizabeth get chastised for it?

Vince preps for the stealth mission. No, this does not mean Woo from “Survivor Cagayan” comes in to bestow upon Vince his “Ninja Stealth Mode”. Instead, Sandra teaches him her trademark techniques for sneaking around. I like this. It gets Sandra more involved, and is more visual than any lesson we’ve had so far. As Vince leaves on his mission, we get some good banter between Rob and Sandra. Sandra wishes to go with him to help, while Boston Rob jokes that she’d make too much noise with her nonstop talking. Funny, and natural. If we get more of this, I’ll go from being neutral about these two returning to overjoyed at their return.

Vince’s mission into Vokai is fairly uneventful, so I’ll save it a blow-by-blow. It’s really well-edited, though. The music and the shots of Vokai waking up combine to add a lot of tension to the scene. It’s also nice to see Vince improvise when their fire turns out to be out, scooping ashes into his canteen instead. It’s capped off to Vince comparing himself to a super-spy, while showing him fall on his butt. Boston Rob and Sandra deem his efforts worthy of an idol. Good for him, even though he too should have been given grief for not holding out for a better deal.

CHALLENGE TIME! And yes, it has been a while since I’ve used all-caps when announcing a challenge, but then, it’s been a long time since I’ve been this excited about a challenge. I don’t think I’ve seen something this fun or original since the third immunity challenge of “Survivor San Juan del Sur”, and that was five years ago! Now, some elements might seem pretty standard. You’ve got a one-on-one swimming race to retrieve a key. Nothing unusual there. Our challenge ends with a puzzle. Again, pretty standard, but they at least combine a couple of puzzle elements, specifically the hanging fish from “Survivor Redemption Island”, and that bonsai-tree puzzle first seen on “Survivor One World”. Getting better, but nothing all-caps worthy. But that middle section! You see, our remaining six players (having used one on swimming and two on the puzzle) need something to do. As such, they all climb up on a see-saw balance beam, and must then maneuver the last player up to both ends of the see-saw to retrieve bags of puzzle pieces. This is an element like nothing we’ve seen before. Closes was the first reward challenge of “Survivor Vanuatu”, and even that was more about the maneuvering than about the balance. You have to take both into consideration here, and it makes for an engaging visual we’ve never seen before on this show. More of this creativity, please!

Even the reused parts of the challenge manage to be exciting, though that’s in part due to the stakes being high. Unlike the previous two episodes, both tribes have had some talk about multiple targets, and thus there’s actual MYSTERY as to who wins. Even the damn swimming challenge is engaging, with Olympic Swimmer Elizabeth going up against lifeguard Janet. Janet is kind of in a win-win situation here. If she loses, no big deal. She was up against an Olympian, and can use that as an excuse. If she wins? She beat an Olympian, and her stock goes up tremendously. She’s sort of in the same position as Nick Maiorano going up against Scot Pollard in basketball on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, with similar results.

Still, despite this early lead, Lairo takes the loss. It seems puzzles are their achilles heal, as Karishma and Vince can’t get it together, letting Jamal and Lauren take the win on this one. NOW Karishma has reason to be worried. She may have exaggerated how outside the group she was earlier, but a challenge loss, particularly when you had a decent lead, is reason enough to vote you off. Sure enough, when discussion comes as to who to split the vote with against Vince, Karishma’s name comes up, due to her poor performance. Of course, Karishma at camp isn’t helping herself, either. Not with the “Everyone hates me” thing so much, but with being too enigmatic in her strategy. Playing cards close to the chest is one thing, but Karishma refuses to name names, simply saying she doesn’t want to go. Again, I get the strategy. It’s basically the “Anybody but me.” strategy. Karishma, unfortunately, does not have the subtlety to pull it off, and suffers for it. Plus, if someone’s begging you for a name, GIVE THEM A NAME! There comes a time of diminishing returns on the enigmaticness.

The women, however, are not content to just have two targets. They’re still the majority, so they can decide who to vote for. They could just stay for Vince, but as noted, he’s nominally on their side, so it may not be the best idea. They cast around for men to vote off, and settle on Tom, for being older and quiet. I can understand the decision, but I’m still shocked that Dean didn’t get targeted for his faux-pas earlier. I know they say they need his strength, but it’s been established at this point that Lairo is not hurting for strength. It’s brains they need, and unless Dean’s going to step up on the puzzles, there’s not much of a need to keep him around.

As we head off to Tribal, let us discuss the pros and cons of our three targets. Overall, Karishma is the worst choice to go, particularly from the women’s perspective. She puts the dominant alliance in jeopardy if she goes, and two poor puzzle performances does not a challenge sink make. There’s an argument to be made that she’s unstable, as we’ll see at Tribal Council later, but I think Karishma has a big difference from other insecure players I’ve advocated getting the boot in the past. Specifically, while she’s insecure, she’s not flipping due to that insecurity, just begging the women to stay together. She may be uncertain, but she’s loyal in her uncertainty, meaning it can go away with more votes going the way she hopes, and making her an asset down the road. Vince, while not the best choice, is still ok. He’s probably the most unified choice, as the only person out of the vote is him, and he’s gone. Still, he does seem loyal to the women, making him an asset. Surprisingly, despite being the last minute target, Tom is actually probably the smart choice. I hate advocating getting rid of the older guy, but I don’t see him bringing much to the tribe, and he’s probably the least loyal to the women’s alliance. True, he does have an “in” with Elaine, but Vince does as well. Sure, it will piss off Aaron and Dean, but they’re probably out next, so who cares. The exception to all this is Elizabeth. As she mentioned earlier, so far the only person on Lairo who can contradict her story about the Island of the Idols is Vince. I wouldn’t suggest she advocate hard for Vince, since that in and of itself would arouse suspicion, but if others are saying it, I might push for it slightly from her point.

With Karishma so on edge, Tribal Council is understandably a fun affair. After Aaron displays some confidence, Karishma again vocalizes her discomfort with her position in the tribe. Tom tries to calm things down by giving his “team” pep talk, and correctly pointing out Lairo’s puzzle weakness, but Karishma will not be stopped. She goes and whispers in the women’s ears, a move that plays better on tv than it does in the game. If anything this hurts Karishma, as now she can be painted as a schemer. Again I understand the paranoia, but this is not the right way to express it.

For once, our mystery is kept all through Tribal, but in the end, the women go for Vince. As I stated previously, not the worst move, but not the best either. I am personally sorry to see Vince go. He wasn’t the best player in the game, and I don’t think he would have won, but the guy did make for a lot of fun moments, and for that, he shall be missed. The only flaw in his exit is Boston Rob and Sandra up in the peanut gallery, reminding us that he got voted out with an idol. You know, in case we forgot from 30 minutes ago.

This episode is probably the best of the season. It keeps the strong characters and intriguing storylines, but adds in better mystery and more humor. If this season keeps up, it definitely stays in the top-tier, and with a blindfold challenge promised for next episode, it seems likely to do so!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.