“Survivor” What-Ifs?: Palau

Well, now that the 4th of July has passed in the US, thereby eliminating any sort of search-engine boost for topics relating to US history, let’s discuss the season that was steeped in US history, because that makes perfect sense!  Yes, if the title wasn’t clear, today we’re going to be making a small change to “Survivor Palau”.  As one of the more beloved and memorable seasons of the show, naturally we’re probably going to find some way to ruin it.  

As always, though, before we begin our deep dive, I should warn you that there are SPOILERS ahead.  Since we’re going to be discussing a change in the timeline, it’s going to be hard not to reference how things went down in our timeline.  In addition, changing the outcome of a season usually changes returnees in future seasons, so if you haven’t watched Palau, or any returnee seasons besides All-Stars, you may want to hold off on reading this blog until you do so.  With all that said, if you are still here, let’s dive into the change in question, shall we?

THE IMPACT

If you’re anything like me, you find that one of the funniest moments from Palau is at the final seven, where Stephenie, desperate to save herself, tries to form a women’s alliance, the women being up 4-3 at this point.  What is somewhat surprising is that this crack seems to start to open a bit, as both Katie and Jenn, Katie in particular, seem to start to consider the option.  Where everything falls apart is Caryn, who takes the information to Tom, thereby quashing any hope of such an alliance.  Or, as Katie memorably put it, “We can’t get a women’s alliance together because Caryn sucks.”

So, for this change, what if Caryn DIDN’T suck?  Or, to be more accurate, what if Caryn actually DID agree to join the women’s alliance?  This might seem like a stretch, since Caryn was openly not overly fond of Katie, but bear in mind, Caryn wasn’t overly fond of Tom either, finding him a bit authoritarian and condescending.  I guess it’s more accurate to say that Caryn wasn’t fond of pretty much anyone on her tribe (save Willard, but he’s long-gone by this point), and it was just a matter of who annoyed her most that particular day.  In this timeline, perhaps Tom was particularly overbearing that day, and so Caryn decided sticking in her lot with Katie was the better option.  

In this case, the women’s alliance not only happens, but takes out the man who, in our timeline, was the winner of the season.  Tom and Ian are the primary targets, and this change doesn’t prevent Ian from winning immunity this episode.  Thus Tom, the biggest target, goes down, and as you can imagine, that makes a great deal of difference on the rest of the season.  

THE FALLOUT

The problem the women’s alliance now faces is target availability.  In our timeline only Tom and Ian ever win immunity, and were pretty much each other’s only competition.  Gregg might have been able to put up something of a fight, but as a pretty distant third in every immunity challenge we saw, I don’t think it can be realistically said that he wins an immunity.  Thus, the women now have the issue that there’s nothing stopping Ian from winning immunity again and again.  

At first, this isn’t too bad, as there are fractures to be found in the alliance anyway.  While I feel like the women were willing to use Stephenie as a number, I don’t think they actually wanted to keep her around that long.  All of them were smart enough to realize she would decimate a jury, and thus not be a good endgame partner for them, particularly as, in the unlikely event that Ian and Gregg DO get eliminated, she’s now the biggest challenge threat left.  As such, if Ian wins immunity, I suspect Stephenie goes before Gregg.  Jenn was a savvy player, and while I don’t think she’d sacrifice her game for Gregg, it is fair to say that she realized that he was more of a number for her, and would be able to convince the women to turn on Stephenie.  

In exchange, Jenn probably has to promise to take Gregg out next, which most likely happens once Ian wins immunity again at five.  Then we come down to our final four, which is actually nearly the same as in our timeline, just substituting in Caryn for Tom.  This is where it gets tricky for the women, as again, I feel like Ian is a shoe-in to win every challenge from here on out.  If the women do fracture, Caryn is probably on the outs again, due to the whole “doesn’t really get along particularly well with anybody” thing.  Thus Ian, Jenn, and Katie are our final three, and once again, Ian wins, probably taking Katie to the end to prove his “loyalty” in the face of her “deception”.  

This, as one would expect, leads to an easy Ian victory.  I hesitate to say it’s 7-0 in Ian’s favor, as both Coby and Jenn would be wild cards in this case (the latter because Ian would have been personally responsible for her exit, the former because that’s just how he be), but I don’t see Katie scraping together 4 votes in any scenario against Ian.  Ironically, she has better arguments against him than she does against Tom in our timeline, but Ian now also has better arguments.  After all, he overcame a numbers deficit by an impressive 5-immunity streak, putting him in the same category as Colby Donaldson (“Survivor The Australian Outback”).  If that doesn’t lead to his victory with this jury, I don’t know what does.  

THE LEGACY

Since the change to this season has less of an effect on returnees for later seasons, we’ll start there.  While I do think Tom is still a big deal in this timeline, I doubt he ever gets the call to return again.  He’s still loved by many, and still a big hero, but without his improbable win, he’s basically another Hunter Ellis (“Survivor Marquesas”): Likable, but never going to win a game like “Survivor”.  His defeat would be considered inevitable, and thus not worth being brought back for, especially as the game focusses more and more heavily on strategy rather than survival.  In contrast, Ian probably takes his place on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, and also probably gets brought back for “Survivor Winners at War”.  As to who he replaces there, I could see it being either Nick (due to Nick being one of the less well-remembered winners at the time, in spite of recency), or, to my regret, Ethan (due to he and Ethan being similar good-guy, not overly strategic character types).  

Of course, with a women’s alliance coming together, the women of this season get a lot more consideration as well, and for the better I say.  I’d normally say Jenn would be the most likely candidate for a return (i.e. I could see her taking Parvati’s spot on “Survivor Micronesia”), as she’s a young, attractive strategist, an archetype the show loves.  Unfortunately, tragedy gets in the way.  For you newer fans who may be unaware, Jenn was diagnosed with breast cancer about a year after “Survivor Palau”, a battle that she sadly lost around the time of “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, though she did at least live long enough to attend the 10th anniversary party, where she was able to say her goodbyes to a lot of her friends from the show.  Much as I would LIKE to change this outcome, the fact remains that there’s no realistic way to do so.  As such, I doubt her health allows her to return.  

Katie, on the other hand, definitely comes back at some point, now being seen as the person who really pushed for the women’s alliance to better her own game, and not just out of necessity as Stephenie did.  I don’t think Katie takes Parvati’s spot on Micronesia, as Jenn likely would have, and I don’t see Katie doing enough to earn a spot on Heroes vs. Villains.  Caramoan would seem a possibility, and I don’t doubt she’d be an alternate for that, but at that point unless Corinne said “No” to returning, I’m not sure who she replaces.  No, Katie, and by extension Caryn, have the best shot at returning on “Survivor Cambodia”, where I don’t doubt both of them are on the Second Chance ballot, probably replacing the likes of Mikayla and Stephanie.  Whether they get on, I’m not sure.  If Caryn doesn’t get on, I suspect her ship has sailed, but even if Katie doesn’t return, I’d imagine they bring her back for Game Changers at long last, taking either Hali or Sierra’s place.  

For all my cynicism at the top of this blog, the truth is that an Ian win probably doesn’t do that much to change how beloved the season was.  True, we lose the “Hero leader overcomes odds to win” storyline we got with a Tom victory, but it does get replaced with “Underdog nice guy immunities his way to the end”, which is almost as good and improbable, so the season doesn’t lose much there.  If you really want to split hairs, I would say the former storyline is probably more amazing, so perhaps the season loses a BIT of luster, but in exchange, I think it holds up better in the long run.  Despite this being, as I said, a fan-favorite season, Rob Has a Podcast has been doing a countdown of all the seasons, with Palau coming in 18th.  More than respectable, to be sure, but not this “Top Tier Season” it was seen as at the time.  The problem with Palau is that what makes it great, mainly the unlikely outcomes we see such as Ulong losing every immunity challenge and Tom winning, work well for a first-time watch, but when you rewatch and know they’re coming, they’re a lot less exciting.  Without mystery, the inevitable outcome is lessened in impact.  Here, however, Koror actually DOES shake things up post-merge, thereby giving you something interesting to look forward to.  Palau may not be as beloved in the moment in this timeline, but it ends up holding up much better to the test of time.  That said, physical threats become even more of a target than they already are in subsequent seasons.  After all, an Ian victory in this scenario proves that, if left unchecked, they CAN immunity their way to the end.  

In my opinion, though, the big impact here is on women’s alliances.  This is something that’s been discussed since the beginning of “Survivor”, being literally brought up in the first episode of “Survivor Borneo”, and even being openly discussed as recently as “Survivor Island of the Idols”.  Doubtless it will come up again, but I think the failure of the women’s alliance here to produce a female winner will trigger renewed discussion on this topic.  The problem here is timing.  While women’s alliances are not an unusual discussion on the show, they don’t necessarily pop up as often as one might think.  However, with a women’s alliance coming together on Palau, we now have two seasons right in a row with prominent women’s alliances, both of which went down in flames to a guy, since Vanuatu is unchanged in this timeline.  Hence, there’s probably a lot of discussion around “Can a women’s alliance truly stick it out?”, and more to the point, makes them a lot more likely to show up, since a lot of women on the show will have something to prove.  They’ll want to show they CAN stick it out against the men.  I still think we won’t get one that fully works out until Micronesia, but the discussion comes up more, and I think Guatemala, despite not having a formal women’s alliance, gets a lot of credit for having 4 of the final 5 be women, and for the women actually taking out the men at the end.  

This concludes are look at “Survivor Palau” for now, but not for the What-If series as a whole.  As always, I want to hear what you’d like discussed!  Leave your comments, either on this blog or wherever this blog is posted, describing what change you’d like to see examined.  As always, there are a few guidelines you should consider if you want to see your change discussed, and they are listed below:  

1. One Change Only: This can’t be a whole bunch of things or multiple things going another way to alter the course of a season.  This must be one singular event that alters the season in some way.  Cascade effects, where one change naturally leads to another, are ok, but they have to be natural and logical.  As an example, Shii-Ann not flipping and Chuay Gahn losing the final 10 immunity challenge on “Survivor Thailand” would definitely change things, but those are two independent changes that need to happen, and therefore not appropriate for this blog.  I should also mention that the change has to be an EVENT, not a play style.  Yes, “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains” probably goes much differently if Russell Hantz (“Survivor Samoa”) isn’t an asshole to everyone, but apart from that never happening, it’s a change in overall play style, not a single moment.  It’s also, as I say, implausible, which leads to my next ground rule…

2. The Change Must Be Realistic: An unlikely change is ok, but it has to be something that COULD have happened, or it’s not worth writing about.  Yes, Fang winning the first immunity challenge on “Survivor Gabon” would drastically change the season.  Would it ever happen?  No.  So there’s no point in writing about it.  

3. The Change Must Have An Impact: By this, I mean the change has to actually alter the season in some significant way.  Simply changing up the boot order is not enough.  Someone new has to win, the perception of the season has to change, or both.  As an example, I originally planned to do a blog on “Survivor Heroes vs. Villains”, with a timeline where Candice didn’t flip at the final 9.  I thought this could lead to a Heroes victory.  Then I remembered that Russell Hantz plays his idol in that same episode, meaning the flip most likely doesn’t matter, and apart from a slight boot order change, the season as a whole remains untouched.  Uninteresting, and therefore not worth talking about.  

In addition to these hard-and-fast rules, there are two what I call “Flexible Rules”.  As the name would imply, these rules can be bent with a compelling arguments, but they are two things that should be borne in mind when suggesting new situations to examine:

4. US Seasons Only: This is nothing against international seasons of “Survivor”.  From what I’ve heard through the grapevine, they can be quite good.  The trouble is, as a citizen on the US, the US version of “Survivor” is the one I’m most familiar with, know the most about, and have seen the most of.  I haven’t even seen a full international season of “Survivor”, just the occasional clip.  Nothing knocking them, of course.  I just haven’t gotten around to viewing them.  So, while I won’t outright ban the suggesting of changes from non-US seasons of “Survivor”, bear in mind that I’m unlikely to pick them due to a lack of knowledge and lack of time to catch up on the seasons.  

5. I Will Not Do Brandon Flipping At The Africa Final 9: A flip by Brandon Quinton at the Final 9 of “Survivor Africa”, voting out Lex instead of Kelly, would indeed fit all the criteria mentioned above.  I’m refusing this particular scenario, not because it isn’t interesting or worth talking about, but because it was already covered by Mario Lanza in his book “When it Was Worth Playing For”.  He covered it so well and so thoroughly that I don’t think I would have anything to add.  I’m willing to consider this scenario if someone can give me a compelling reason that Mario is wrong, or there’s some aspect he didn’t consider, but until that time, this scenario is out.  Other “Survivor Africa” scenarios are ok, though.

Hope you all enjoyed this latest installment of “Survivor What-Ifs?”.  I’ll try and get another one out before my vacation in a couple of weeks, but otherwise, I’ll see you back then!

-Matt

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 5: Okies From Muskogee

Conflict is a major element of any sort of entertainment media, and, some would argue, of reality television in particular. “Survivor” is certainly no exception, and you can see it in the casting. I don’t just mean who’s on what season, but who’s on what tribe with each other. On seasons where the contestants don’t divide the tribes themselves, “Survivor” has a tendency to put people of opposite philosophies or beliefs together in the hopes of engendering conflict. A liberal ends up with a conservative. The religious zealot ends up with the hard-core atheist. And of course, the source of conflict so ingrained in “Survivor” that it dates all the way back to “Survivor Borneo”, you put the homophobe on the same tribe as the homosexual. And yet, for all that this is an obvious device for conflict, it’s amazing to me how often the exact opposite happens. For all that the producers blatantly try and produce conflict, more often than not, the opposites find commonality that supersedes their differences. Sure, it doesn’t happen all the time, and sure, in this case it DEFINITELY wasn’t intentional, but the fact that it happens at all is at least more original, and in many ways more compelling, than the potential conflict.

For once, though, our conflict does not start at Takali, who are just returning from their past Tribal Council. David feels compelled to apologize, most likely because that’s his response to everything directed at him. Everyone rightly points out that there’s no need for him to apologize, but David admits in confessional that maybe, just maybe, playing his idol on Jessica last episode was a bad idea. Oh no, really? Just because you’ve lost a major source of power in this game for very little gain? Surely you jest!

Well, at least David gained a loyal ally in Jessica… Oh, wait, I’m sorry, KEN just gained a loyal ally in Jessica! Yes, the one potential positive in David playing his idol on Jessica backfires immensely, as it’s Ken, not David, who earns her undying loyalty. Granted, Ken did try to warn her, but he also spoke harshly to her at Tribal Council. David, meanwhile, was nothing but nice to her, and played an idol for her. Seems to me that Jessica is directing her gratitude towards the wrong person. Granted, now that David is sans idol, a lot of his appeal does drop, but I think this is also a testament to a certain natural charm that Ken has.

Ah, but loyalty is not the only thing Jessica shares, but information. So moved is she by the gesture that she informs our good man about the Legacy Advantage from the first episode. Yeah, you remember that thing? Well, in gratitude for Ken’s attempt to warn Jessica, she would have bequeathed him the advantage had she left. I would like to take this time to remind you that KEN was amongst the people writing Jessica’s name down last episode. Charm. It’s all charm. Now, while I’m someone who advocates keeping an idol a secret if at all possible, I will concede that there are times where revealing it can be to your advantage. The Legacy Advantage does NOT have those times. I understand that sharing information can bring you valuable trust, but unlike an idol, which can theoretically be shared for the good of an alliance, the Legacy Advantage cannot be shared. It can only be bequeathed, and only to one person. Meaning that, if someone knows you’d be likely to give it to them upon being voted out, you’ve just put a larger target on your back. If I’m Ken, I’m thinking “Wow, how very nice of you. Better vote you out next so I can get that advantage.” True, I don’t think Ken DOES think like me, but the danger is there.
And to think, Jessica was one of my favorites coming out of episode one. Can no one on this season remain a good strategist longer than an episode?

We get to see the OTHER disadvantage of David playing his idol the next morning, as all of Takali goes on an “Idol Search Party”, to quote CeCe. Now, David rightly points out that he has an advantage, as he knows from experience that idols are hidden in ordinary objects with tribe logos on them. I would point out that in the past, idols are not guaranteed to be hidden the same way the second time around, but in this case, David is correct, and he’s able to get at it when CeCe and Sunday take a break. Unfortunately for David, the producers cleverly concealed the idol inside of his mortal enemy: STICKS! David, however, conquers his foe, and obtains an idol, slightly mitigating the damage his move did last episode.

Just in time too, because a speech on luck in the game of “Survivor” by Probst heralds a tribe swap. At first, it looks to just be your average affair, with people pulling out random buffs wrapped in cloth. However, the producers actually manage to blindside the audience this time! And with an old twist! That division into three tribes we thought was coming? Yeah, it’s here, two episodes after it was supposed to show up. Five people will go to Takali, five to Vanua, and six will end up on the new Ikabula tribe, which at least got the coolest-sounding name out of the three. Like on “Survivor Cambodia” this new tribe will have no food and very few supplies, though this time the twist seems more balanced. How so? Well, as mentioned, to make up for their getting the short end of the stick camp-wise, Ikabula gets an extra number to play with, and more importantly can sit out their weakest member come challenge time, whereas Takali and Vanua have to live with their weaknesses. I was ok with how the twist went down on “Survivor Cambodia” because these were returning players. It may be a false sense of toughness, but somehow it feels like having people who’ve played before get screwed by a lopsided twist is fairer. This iteration of the twist, in my book, manages to make it fairer for new players, since Ikabula at least get some sort of advantage to make up for their disadvantage.

Not that Michaela, the first person to join Ikabula, seems to think so. She looks pissed from the get-go, and tells Probst “You got it wrong” when asked about how she feels later on. There’s something about this simple, matter-of-fact statement that’s hilarious, superseded by Michaela mentioning barely being able to resist flipping Probst the bird in a confessional. Look, I have nothing but respect for Jeff Probst. He takes the cheesiness of the show, and pulls it off beautifully. In tough situations, he knows just how to play things both for safety and good television. There’s a lot to admire about the guy. But because he seems so perfect in his role, it’s just a lot of fun to see the mickey get taken out of him. Like with the rogue wave last episode, humiliation directed at Probst is hilarious, and the guy seems to take it in stride, which makes it all the funnier.

Michaela’s fellow screwed contestants end up being Jay, Will, and Hannah from Vanua, while Sunday and Bret come over from Takali. Taylor, meanwhile, is worried about being separated from the love of his life, Figgy. Fortunately for him, they end up on the new Takali, along with their old tribemate Adam. Jessica and Ken are the remaining Takali, leaving David, Chris, and Cece to go over to Vanua, joining old members Michelle and Zeke. Probst is quick to point out the divisions here, as the old Vanua have advantages on both the new Takali and Ikabula, while the old Takali has an advantage at the new Vanua. Fair enough patter for Probst, but with the exception of Ikabula, I don’t see those divisions holding. Adam was burned by Taylor and Figgy, amongst others, at his only Tribal Council thus far, and as a power couple is a dangerous thing, it would be easy for that advantage to fall apart. At Vanua, David and Chris, at least at this point, seem to be at each other’s throats. Add onto that division between Zeke and Michelle, and you’ve got the makings for some very interesting strategy. Sadly, we most likely won’t be seeing it this episode. Between the forming of the Ken and Jessica power couple from the old Takali, and Taylor talking about nothing but how much he wants to be with Figgy, it’s pretty clear that the lovebirds are being set up for a downfall. Calling it now, new Takali gets first Tribal Council!

We get pretty generic confessionals from each new tribe, but I will bring up Zeke’s in particular for how much it stretches to find a bright side to the situation. Zeke gives a generic confessional about how he’s on “a strong tribe”, which is patently untrue. Don’t get me wrong, Chris is a big advantage, and Zeke is no slouch, but Michelle hasn’t shown herself to be anything special, and David and Cece are nothing if not dead weight. Not exactly “strength” there.

Wanting to waste no time in getting to the “royally screwed”, we start off at Ikabula rebuilding everything. Bret, to his credit, puts on a brave face and tries to work, but form what we see, he and Sunday give up rather quickly. Jay, on the other hand, proves to be a cocky SOB, as he does the vast majority of the work, and gloats about being in a solid majority. I’ll give him the majority (indeed, Ikabula seems to be the only tribe currently where the can be SAID to be a solid majority), but of course, he HAS to tie it into the whole “Millennials vs. Gen-X” things, talking about how despite being “dreamers”, they’re determined and never give up. I bring this up mainly because it will be INCREDIBLY hypocritical in hindsight.

“Survivor” evidently feels the need to beat a dead horse, as we then waste no time in heading over to Takali, to get the storyline we all know was coming. Taylor, is, as stated previously, overjoyed to have his beau with him, but Figgy is at least a bit more circumspect about the whole thing. She still flirts with him, but evidently sensing that Adam might waver, wants to keep it on the down-low to prevent any sort of targeting. Taylor makes an attempt, but his lip-synching skills are anything but subtle, plus Adam is there to spill the beans regardless. To emphasize just how clueless Taylor is, he justifies himself by saying that his romance is no more dangerous than any sort of alliance. Which is fair enough to say. But, Taylor, THAT’S THE REASON WHY YOU DON’T WANT TO SPREAD IT AROUND! Alliances, like idols, work best when they’re secret. Being obviously flirtatious is the OPPOSITE of secret.

Adam, meanwhile, ensures that subtlety will get them nowhere, Giving up his tribe dynamic to Ken after only the slightest bit of prodding. Adam gives us a generic “I’m in the middle” confessional, and we move on from there. This does bring up the debate over which side Adam should go with, and while I’m throwing my cards out there a bit early, I’d have to say that it’s clear that siding with Ken and Jessica is the correct move in this case. Taylor and Figgy are never going to be on Adam’s side regardless, and given the fractures in the old Takali, diminishing the Millennial numbers somewhat isn’t going to hurt Adam all that much. When no one tribe has a solid alliance together, sticking with the plan becomes much less of an appealing or good option.

Also, hope Adam had his idol with him at the swap. Don’t think it counts as enough of a personal item to be delivered to you, and we never got confirmation that he had it with him. If he does, though, it makes siding with Jessica and Ken all the more appealing, since the man has a safety net.

For some strategic variety, we head to Vanua. Zeke is once again complaining about being screwed by the tribe swap, which means he’s going to be saved. “Doubtless David will still be on the warpath against Chris, and try to recruit Zeke to his cause.” I think as I settle myself in for a predictable scene. But, once again, the show gets me. In quite the opposite of what I thought, Chris and Zeke are the pair to bond, over their shared Oklahoma heritage. I’ll admit that Chris never came across as a bigot, but he did self-describe as a “redneck” pre-season, which has certain anti-homosexual connotations. While nowhere near as big a leap or as touching as the bond between Rudy Boesch and Richard Hatch (“Survivor Borneo”), it’s still nice to see two fairly different people come together. Hence, the title of this blog. We don’t get any specifics on strategy beyond Chris wanting to seize control using Zeke, but there’s a nugget of misdirection there. Not that it changes Takali’s fate, but the effort is there, and it’s well done for what it is.

Remember that hypocrisy I mentioned earlier? Well, it comes out now in full force. Jay, the man who went on and on about how Millennials aren’t lazy and never give up… tries to make fire and gives up. Not 20 minutes after you tried to bolster your generation, you blow it. Maybe if you just tried thinking outside the box on making fire…

Fortunately, Michaela is there to redeem Jay and his generation. Despite being drained and clearly pissed off, the woman manages to start fire. Kudos to her. I’ll go more into why a bit later, but scenes like this from Michaela really work well, and make the show entertaining.

“I’d like to be/under the sea” says the challenge department, and so we have a repeat challenge, courtesy of “Survivor Cagayan”. As I’ve not so subtly alluded to, this is “Octopus’ Garden”, in which tribe members race to get buoys form underwater and carry them to a platform. Once all the buoys are at the platform, one tribe member tries to shoot them into a basket. Immunity is up for grabs for those who get all five buoys in the fastest. Having no smaller idol in plain sight, nor an easy way to divide our current immunity idol, I hope for a minute that “Survivor” is FINALLY going to man up and only have one tribe on a three-tribe season be allowed to win immunity. But no, there’s a smaller idol up for grabs as well. Ah well, I can dream.

As to the challenge itself, it’s a bit unremarkable, but at least not overused. I will say that one improvement here is the addition of a choice to the challenge. The basket, you see, is very far off, and difficult to shoot into. If you want, there is a grappling ball and rope that you can attempt to use to get the basket closer. The downside here is that this takes up valuable time. Choices are always fun in challenges, and here it works particularly well, as it’s a balanced choice. Granted, we ultimately see that pulling the basket close IS the correct choice, but looking at it empirically, one does not seem to have an obvious upside or downside over the other.

Keeping the misdirection going, Takali gets off to a strong start, being the only tribe that doesn’t flounder at some point. For Ikabula, Sunday clearly lets the lack of food get to her, while David and CeCe are their usual messes for Vanua. David even has a hilarious moment where he finally gets his buoy up on the platform, only for it to roll away back into the water. When Ikabula, led by Michaela, begins to pull away, while Takali has trouble even with the closer basket, we see which way the wind is blowing. Michaela is the ace for this tribe, winning them the first immunity, and having made them fire. And she didn’t even need the help of Stephen Fishbach (“Survivor Tocantins”) to win it.

If I may pause the challenge for a second, Michaela is definitely a fun character this season, both for how tough she is and for how lippy she can be. What I find fascinating, though, is that in many ways, she’s very much a “Classic ‘Survivor’” character. In the early days, when the show could at least put up SOME pretense of being about actual survival, audiences tended to gravitate more towards the simple, but strong, folks. Times change, however, and as the show became more and more strategic, the audience gravitated more and more towards the masterminds, deriding those they had once liked as “simple”. Michaela, in many ways, is a return to the old form, and as she’s so likeable, a refreshing one at that. Between Chris’ old-school style of gameplay, and Michaela’s character, this could almost be seen as a return to classic form for “Survivor”.

So, now we can rejoin Vanua for their obvious victory, correct? INCORRECT! In an odd parallel to “Survivor Cagayan”, the guy who bragged about playing basketball earlier in the episode ends up LOSING the challenge for his tribe. And give the episode big props as well. Pretty much all the way through, I was convinced that Takali would be our big losers this time around. True, we got SOME strategy from Vanua, but given what some of the first things we were shown in the episode were, I thought the producers had tipped their hand. Very clever, producers.

Now we get to see what Chris’ master plan is! No doubt he’s going to talk to Michelle to form a counter-alliance, probably under the guise of targeting CeCe based on her challenge performance. Or, you know, he could trust David again, the guy who, by Chris’ own admission, betrayed him twice (as a side note, this tells me that David was never quite as on the outs as he appeared to be. Talk about manipulative editing.). Let’s take door number two, Probst!

Yeah, don’t really understand Chris’ reasoning, but David seems as on board as he can be. Still, he’s rightly skeptical, pointing out that he’d be risking his neck the next episode if this plan goes through. Despite not being targeted, Michelle is still not trusting the word of Chris, which is fair enough on her part. After all, she’s technically still in the minority, and has only known them for a few days. Perhaps she’ll be the strategist that can last more than an episode this season! Naturally, she goes to CeCe, tells her of the plan, and uses her and David to form an anti-Oklahoma alliance. Well, once again, the strategy is gotten half-right, though a bit more egregious in the wrong category this time. Michelle DOES think to talk to CeCe, but tries to target David. You know, the guy who’s CeCe’s top ALLY. No, Michelle disappoints here, and our misdirection has to come from David talking about playing his idol, an idea that admittedly has a lot more credence after last episode. So, I guess something good did come of that move.

Tribal Council even ends up being a lot of fun. True, it’s mostly Probst walking us through the ins and outs of a 3-2 split, but our characters give us some good moments. Zeke’s point about the old Gen-X needing to make inroads now, while technically a flawed argument since the Millennials are a fractured bunch, and Gen-X could still have the majority come the merge at this point, is well-made. Some good sparring between David and Chris also helps make this one of the more entertaining Tribal Council of this season. Does it stand out against all of “Survivor” history? Of course not, but by the standard of Tribal Councils set for this season, it’s great. It really helps that the result is, for once, unpredictable. Logic dictates that CeCe will leave, but as last episode demonstrated, David does not always operate in the realm of “logic”.

For once, though, logic wins out, and CeCe leaves. I hesitate to say that nothing of value was lost, because CeCe was good for the odd one-liner. Nor would I say that Michelle, ultimately the other target tonight, would have been a major blow. But as entertainment goes, I think this was an ok move. Ironically, this actually MIGHT have been a good night for David to play his idol. I’m not going to be too harsh on him, since the idol would be hidden at Takali where he’d have no chance to get it back, but unlike Jessica, CeCe was a loyal ally, and David is pretty clearly on the bottom at this point. True, he has an idol, and Michelle might be a target before him, but I think David’s on the warpath.

A few more episodes like this, and this season might redeem itself. More Michaela please! We had strategy, both good and bad, and some people and moments to really like. And again, that confessional of Michaela’s was funny. Meaning it’s time for

TOP 5 AND BOTTOM 5

This time, we’re talking about confessionals. The best of the best, both funny and heartwarming. Pretty straightforward, though I am limiting myself to one confessional per season, just to prevent seasons with people like Jonathan Penner (“Survivor Cook Islands”) from dominating. That said, let’s move on to the list.

TOP 5

5. “Flip Probst the Bird” (“Survivor MGX”): While I do like this confessional, it doesn’t quite have the pizzaz we’ll see from other confessionals on this list. I’ve heard similar confessionals before, hence why it’s so low on the list. Michaela’s delivery earns special mention, though. It’s too funny not to put on the list, even if it must be this low down.

4. Shane’s Blackberry (“Survivor Exile Island”): Ah, Shane Powers. Source of much of the hilarity of this season. While I do think his “Thinking Seat” scene was funnier, it technically didn’t get its own confessional. The blackberry did, and it was almost as funny, with comedic music highlighting the sheer insanity that was Shane Powers. Good times.

3. Gregg or Ian? (“Survivor Palau”): I alluded to this one a couple episodes ago as being particularly funny. Koror had to elect a leader to go make some decisions, presumably with the other tribe. After “Survivor Africa” everyone was paranoid about having to stay over there. Disaffected from their tribe, both Coby and Janu were roundly ignored, leading to a debate about whether Gregg or Ian should take the plunge. This in and of itself would have been a good look into tribe dynamics, but it was punctuated by Coby reenacting the fruitlessness of his labors. And that’s why Coby will always have a place in my “Survivor” heart.

2. “Legless Chickens Against Sleek Weasels” (“Survivor Gabon”): Let’s be real here: the Fang tribe on this season was pretty pathetic, challenge-wise. And it gets pretty boring. It’s why this season, despite getting really good, is a slow starter (some would argue a non-starter). But, hidden amongst the early-game “meh”, is a gem of a confessional from Ace Gordon. There’s only so many ways you can talk about a loss, but Ace’s aforementioned description of a pretty pathetic loss did a lot to liven up those early days of the season.

1. “Me, Not Them” (“Survivor Borneo”): I’ve largely gone with confessionals that make me laugh, but I have to say, the most powerful of them all is probably the most serious. Rarely has “Survivor” been spelled out more simply than with Rudy’s comment of “I’ve gotta fit in. Me, not them. There’s more of them than there is of me.” That, right there, is truth. There’s a reason why I repeatedly refer back to this confessional when discussing strategy. It’s just that good.

Honorable Mention: “Amazon Chicks” (“Survivor The Amazon”): Normally this is the sort of confessional I’d pass over entirely. Beautiful women talking about how great they are because they’re beautiful. Not the reason I watch “Survivor”, and probably even giving it an honorable mention is too good for it. But this confessional holes a rare distinction that makes it worth mentioning: it’s a two-person confessional. This season was the only one that did these, and I don’t know why, but they had the idea to have two people use the confession cam at the same time. A fun concept. Wish they’d bring it back.

BOTTOM 5

5. “Basically I’m a Badass.” (“Survivor San Juan del Sur”): Drew Christy’s prophetic proclamation has become so much of a meme at this point that it defies description. Many probably think it should have been on the “Top 5” list for just how unaware it is, but as we’ll see, egotistical people being egotistical in confessionals rubs me the wrong way. While I do agree that there is some humor here, and that’s why I kept this one low, it just isn’t for me.

4. “Chariot-Type Thing” (“Survivor Micronesia”): Again, we have more of a personal choice. I like to think that my opinions by and large fall in line with the “Survivor” community, but when I like something others don’t, or vice versa, I’m not afraid to admit it. Cirie Fields is one of those things. While I’ve gotten over my “Fear of Leaves” hangup, and can respect her story arc from “Survivor Exile Island”, I’m still not a big fan of hers, which many people are at a loss to understand. This confessional, I feel, exemplifies what I dislike about Cirie. It’s cool to see her struggling to get power, but when she has power, she’s insufferable. Just because you’re the swing vote doesn’t entitle you to get your way, or call those who don’t cater to your every whim names. I get that it’s a good position, but something about Cirie’s attitude here bugs me. And it’s not just here; I’ve seen and complained about it with other people too (Sarah Lacina on “Survivor Cagayan” comes to mind), but this one sticks out as a particularly blatant example.

3. Insulting Tata the Bushman (“Survivor Caramoan”): While Cochran 2.0 was a marked improvement in the strategic department, I have to admit that he lost a lot in the humor department. True, Cochran made cracks about his fellow contestants on “Survivor South Pacific”, but he made sure to temper them with self-deprecating humor. Not so much on “Survivor Caramoan”. There were times where he was really mean-spirited, and comparing Tata the bushman to Gollum from “Lord of the Rings” is a pretty low blow. I don’t like bullys, and this came far too close to teasing for me to like.

2. “Fat Women and Wicker Furniture” (“Survivor Pearl Islands”): Was there ever more of a chauvinistic, egotistical jackass on “Survivor” than Jonny Fairplay? This confessional (which happened multiple times, I might add), exemplifies everything scummy about Mr. Fairplay. It’s insulting to women. It boosts his own ego. It loses out only to something even more deplorable.

1. Russell Hantz’s Ego (“Survivor Samoa”): I’m kind of cheating here, since I’m not talking about one particular confessional, but screw it, it’s my list! I can do what I want! Never ONCE do I remember a pleasant confessional from this man. If he wasn’t being insulting, sexist, or both, he was stroking his own ego. That’s bad enough in characters I LIKE, but for it to be this stain on “Survivor” history is just too much to bear.

Honorable Mention: Questioning a Women’s Character (“Survivor Vanuatu”): This confessional, in and of itself, is not that bad. True, it has some sexist tones to it, with Chris Daugherty implying that women are overly emotional, but in his defense, he also implies that they’re strategic badasses. Doesn’t make up for the sexism, but does offset it somewhat. Many point to this as Chris’ “Eureka!” moment for the season, which is fair enough. But then it got played over, and over, and over again! So, I hate this confessional not so much for what it is, but for how often I had to put up with it.

Well, all that said, this episode is a marked improvement from most one’s past this season. Let us hope it is an indicator of things to come!

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.

Idol Speculation: “Survivor MGX” Episode 3: Back to School

After 33 seasons of a show, it’s pretty much inevitable that the advent of a new season will draw comparisons to an older one. Case in point, myself and many other people have drawn comparisons between this season and “Survivor Nicaragua”, both in terms of being a battle of the ages, and a pretty cringe-worthy theme. The cringe-worthiness I will not deny, but sometimes are judgements are too hasty. In terms of theme, this season is actually a lot closer to early “Survivor Cambodia”. Specifically, it’s closest to the early Ta Keo Tribe, where the divide was “old school vs. new school” “Survivor”, referring to a divide between those actually trying to survive, and putting the strategic game on the back burner, and those who put the game first and foremost. It may be a bit cliche, but as we’ll see, the Takali and Vanua tribes individually represent old school and new school gameplay respectively.

Dealing with your tribe after a major blindside is always a tricky business. Being hurt and/or outraged is a perfectly understandable reaction. At the same time, you really can’t afford to give in to that reaction, at least, not if you value your time in the game. Like it or not, if you want any chance at survival, you need to be diplomatic about the whole thing, since you’re going to need at least SOME people in the majority to still like you. So, where do Adam and Zeke, our betrayed players this episode, fall? Much like this season so far, they end up somewhere in the middle. Adam takes on the spokesperson role of the tribe, offering congratulations to the tribe as a whole, and Figgy and Taylor in particular, on their blindside. The correct words are there, but there’s a distinct tone behind them that makes me wonder whether this congratulations will be accepted or not. We also get a snarky comment from Figgy about how Adam is coming down hard on her and Taylor when a majority on the tribe ended up voting together, which is admittedly correct of her. However, I think what Adam’s REALLY trying to say is that he sees Figgy and Taylor as being the ones who swung the vote. Of course, this is ALSO a mistake on his part, since Michelle was the real power behind the swing this time, but in a sense, that only increases her credibility as a strategist. Swinging a vote is hard enough, but not taking any of the flak for doing so? That takes a whole other level of skill. Props to her.

Where Adam and Zeke (particularly Zeke) fall apart is in their dealings with Hannah, our indecisive voter from last episode. Correctly recognizing that she’s on the bottom of the majority, Hannah goes over to apologize and mend some fences with the pair, who are commiserating out on the beach. Zeke, however, is a no-sell in this regard, saying that he doesn’t particularly feel like talking to her right now. Fair enough, but again, there’s a tone there that indicates more animosity than needed. Add to this Hannah’s inability to take a hint (and by “hint”, I mean being repeated told “I don’t feel like talking right now.”), and you’ve got a situation where no one comes off looking good. Hannah doesn’t seem to understand about how to strategize with the recently burned, and seems to be looking more for forgiveness than an alliance. Zeke, meanwhile, is too stubborn in not talking to Hannah, and comes across as kind of an ass in how he ends up talking to her. Even Adam, who is charitably the most diplomatic of the three, ends up talking to Hannah rather harshly, such that I’m surprised she’s willing to hear out a proposal of his later.

Next morning does NOT see a continuation of this conflict, but we instead head over to Takali. Once we see what’s there, I WISH we’d kept on with Vanua. At this point, nothing at Takali really happens of note, except that we reaffirm how annoying Paul is, and call him out as a guy who can’t deliver. He takes the spear and goes snorkeling, but comes back with fish stories but no fish. We also get confirmation that CeCe and David do talk, and that Ken is more than just a middleman in this alliance, but that’s not a huge revelation.

Sadly, heading back to Vanua does not give us more strategizing, but instead a good fake out. We see Adam walking along a deserted section of beach with ominous music behind him. I’m sure most people were thinking “hidden immunity idol” at this point. I certainly was. But no, Adam instead walks right past the idol to get to tree mail. This reveals that the Vanua idol is NOT in a coconut, but under a seashell. Makes it harder to spot the logo, since seashells are generally more colorful than coconuts, but also makes it harder to just stumble across accidentally. All things considered, I prefer the coconut.

Tree mail brings us our promised “rock drawing twist”, and it’s here that we find out that we, the audience, have been played once again. Most people, including myself, suspected a “Two tribes become three” twist like on “Survivor Cambodia”, but it was not to be. Instead, four members of each tribe are randomly selected by rock draw to go on a picnic together, to gather information. I have to say, in some senses I’m relieved by them not going the same route as on “Survivor Cambodia”. Don’t get me wrong, the further dividing of the tribes was a great twist that I’d like to see again, but on a season explicitly titled a “versus” season, I feel like it’s too soon. If you want to draw attention to the divide between two groups, to the point of making it the theme of your season, then you need to keep those groups consistent, at least for more than two episodes. Plus, it’s always fun to see how good people are at holding their cards close to the chest in cases like these

If I WERE to have a complaint, it would be the rock drawing method in and of itself. The twist of having people from opposite tribes meet up and pair off is still a good one that we haven’t seen in a while, but given the option, I always like to have choice in these matters. Seeing how the tribe picks who will go can give great insight into strategy, or, at a minimum, lead to hilarious moments. Recall Coby Archa’s “Should it be Gregg or should it be Ian?” confessional on “Survivor Palau”. A comedic highlight of the season that would not have been there had the tribe just drawn a rock to see who would get singled out. I rest my case.

Will, Taylor, Figgy, and Jay all end up going for Vanua, making things there kind of bland. After all, no one from the minority got to go, so the strategic possibilities are limited. Takali is a bit more interesting, with underdogs CeCe and David going alongside Chris and Paul. Despite this divide, though, I have to give the strategic edge in this twist to Takali. Pretty much everyone there plays things as they should. Ok, maybe not Paul, but given who he is, I think it’s the best he could do. Chris gives us our traditional “play things close to the chest” confessional, which for someone like him who’s currently in the power position, is a smart move. Paul, despite making kind of an ass of himself, does actually do something of a service to his tribe by making a spectacle of himself. If people are watching his crazy antics, and so long as he doesn’t give anything away about divides on his tribe, it distracts people from talking strategy. It’s like a magic trick: you want to draw the audience’s eye away from what’s really happening. Even CeCe and David, the only people who explicitly give away alliance secrets, do their job well. They make some alliances on the other side (a necessity for the pair, since they’re on the bottom), but don’t do it in such a way that it tips off the rest of their tribe. All this is not to say that Vanua has a bad performance, but it’s very inactive. The one bit of talk we DO see from them is them revealing Mari’s exit after a single question. Not that this is dynamite information (after all, they’ll see Mari left at the next immunity challenge), but I feel like it’s opening the door to further, more probing questions. Not a good way to be in a situation like this.

It’s when we head back to our respective camps that we REALLY get to see the “old school/new school” divide on this season. Ken in confessional has been the most open critic of Paul, mostly for his failure to deliver on fish, an argument made stronger by the fact that Ken actually DOES catch fish. We also see him criticize Paul in front of Jessica, and attempt to get her to flip. Jessica talks about the possibility, and even brings it up to her fellow ladies in the majority, Sunday and Lucy (yes, they exist). However, they all agree that they’re in a good spot, and it does no good to piss off the majority just yet. This stuff is pretty textbook old school “Survivor”: challenge and survival performance are paramount factors in length of stay, and once you’ve got an alliance going, you don’t deviate from it.

Conversely, our simple scene back at Vanua ends up being textbook new school “Survivor”. After a bit of the “Triforce” plus Will hanging out, Taylor declares them to be an effectively invincible powerhouse. ACK! HUBRIS! We see, though, that Adam the diplomat can come out. Taking advantage of time alone with Michaela and Hannah, he outlines why it’s dangerous to keep the “Triforce” around, in a very logical manner. All talk, and all strategy. Again, textbook new school “Survivor”. We never hear Hannah’s thoughts on the matter, but given that she wanted to talk strategy the night before, and Adam isn’t yelling at her, we can presume that it goes over ok. Michaela effectively continues her “As long as it ain’t me.” campaign, listening and taking what Adam says to heart, but not committing to anything just yet. She wants to see where the situation lies for her, and notes that in the end, she’ll “Follow her gut.” Ah Michaela, when will you learn? From Lex Van Den Berghe’s eternally wrong gut on “Survivor Africa” to Darnell Hamilton’s gastrointestinally-inclined gut on “Survivor Kaoh Rong”, following your gut on “Survivor” is almost NEVER a good idea!

Anyways, it’s Challenge Time! We’ve had a great challenge and an awful challenge so far this season, so it’s only fitting that we average out to an average challenge this episode. One at a time, five tribe members will haul sacks containing coconuts and sandbags across a tricky balance beam. Once all the sacks and tribe members are across, two other members sort the sandbags from the coconuts, leaving two more tribe members to toss said sandbags at a finished, standing block puzzle. Once the puzzle is knocked down, two other tribe members reassemble it, with the first puzzle finished winning immunity as well as some chairs and other comfort items. This is pretty much a rehashed challenge. It’s tough to say where heavy bags and balance beams come from, since both have pretty much been “Survivor” staples since “Survivor Borneo”. The puzzle knocking down, though, comes explicitly from “Survivor Cagayan”, and I’m happy to see it back. It’s a nice twist on the puzzle concept, where instead of just solving a puzzle, you effectively have to take it apart and put it back together again. Where the challenge falls down for me is in comparison to it’s counterpart on “Survivor Cagayan”. Originally, you were racing to knock down another tribe’s puzzle, and the challenge stopped when one puzzle was completely gone. Therefore, there was an element of balance between strength and smarts. You might not be the best at puzzles, but if you could knock things down quicker, you wouldn’t have to worry as much about the puzzle. In comparison, knocking down your own puzzle seems like a weak change.

Oh, and there’s also a special rule on the balance beam. Someone who’s already made it across can go back and take a bag for someone else. The only stipulation is that bag or no, everyone at the start of the challenge must make their way across the balance beam, meaning for this rule to be useful, someone either has to be really good at the balance beam, or someone has to really suck.

In fact, we get both. We’ve once again got a relatively back-and-forth challenge where either tribe could lose (both had sufficient strategizing that I could see it going either way), but where Takali falls apart is CeCe. She’s incredibly slow at the balance beam, but insists on going the entire way. Conversely, it turns out that Taylor on Vanua is reminiscent of Ozzy Lusth (“Survivor Cook Islands”) in more than just looks, as he pretty much carries every bag across himself. This turns the tide in the end, as Vanua comes back to win it all. This leads to Chris getting mad at CeCe, and declaring her the next to go, which naturally means CeCe is safe for tonight.

At first, though, there’s no obvious path of escape for her. As I said, Takali tends towards old school gameplay, where you stick with your alliance no matter what. A combination of CeCe being eternally left out of the loop (girl, you need to be PROACTIVE about these things if you want information), and Jessica’s reaffirmation that she doesn’t want to piss off Chris and Bret tells us that she is legitimately in trouble.

Then, however, Paul makes a mistake, as he is want to do. Jessica was already a bit on edge about the power of the guys, or at least the losing of another woman. She was cool to stick with her original allies, but Paul then makes a comment about being willing to throw the ladies under the bus should a guys alliance form. This leads Jessica, Sunday, and Lucy to reconsider their position before Tribal Council, giving us a solid narrative for Paul’s inevitable exit.

Probst made a comment before the season began about how he preferred the millennials at Tribal Council, and after two Tribal Councils with Takali, it’s easy to see why: THEY’RE BORING! Is this hyperbole for comedic effect on the internet? Yes, but the fact remains that even a blindside can’t make a Takali Tribal Council as exciting as a Vanua one. For some reason, Vanua just gives more creative answers and better sound-bytes than Takali does. Not that Takali answers things POORLY from a strategy perspective, not at all. But from an entertainment perspective, they lack. There was a funny moment of levity in the debate of “U” versus “you” in texting, but even that came off as annoying, cliched, and pointless, much like the theme of this season.

There was, however, one really good moment, highlighting a member of Takali I’ve only briefly touched on: Sunday. You might remember her as “Lady who gave generic ‘Gen-X’ confessionals in a Minnesotan twang.” This time, however, she actually has something to say. With the subject of her young children brought up, she points out how they’ll try a bunch of different ways of reaching their end goal, while her tribe seems caught up in doing things “the right way”. As I’ve said before, it’s the person with the most flexibility who embodies the best of both tribes, who will most likely win this season. I hadn’t really considered Sunday a threat before this Tribal Council, but this shows self-knowledge and flexibility, both very good qualities in this game. You go, girl! Kick that butt!

In the end, though, the inevitable happens, and Paul must leave us. His time was short and somewhat annoying, but entertaining and not overly annoying. I’m not sorry to see him go, but I’m glad he was at least on the show briefly. As to whether his ouster was a smart move: I’m stumped. Really, I don’t think there was a wrong move for Jessica, Sunday, and Lucy in this position. If they booted Paul, as they did, they keep themselves in power and keep the women at even numbers with the men to prevent a gender alliance, but piss off Chris and Bret, and theoretically end up 3 against three versus Ken, David, and CeCe. Keeping Paul, on the other hand, makes the threat of a men’s alliance greater, and theoretically limits your options. Either choice could work out for them in the end, so it’s hard to say one’s better than the other. If you hold me down and force me to choose, though, I’d say that getting rid of CeCe would have been the better choice. I think the chances of David and Ken joining a men’s alliance are minimal, so you could pull them in next vote and be up on them 3-2 in the alliance, and you piss off fewer people. Still, I’m not going to chastise them for the move. It’s logical, and perhaps a men’s alliance was more likely than we’ve seen.

All in all, we’ve just got another ok episode. It wasn’t very surprising, but if you’re going to do an obvious boot episode, this is how to do it: set up early and clearly WHY this person will go, and give us strategy for future episodes to help keep things moving. Just kind of a ho-hum decent episode we get through before the REALLY good stuff comes.

-Matt

Title Credit to Jean Storrs.